It might be time for a few people to start adjusting those mock drafts because there’s a growing sense that Drake Maye isn’t going to go as early as some people have been suggesting.
I’ve long been a sceptic of Maye’s. It’s not that I think he’s a bad player or doesn’t deserve a placing in the first round. I just think he’s been overhyped since day one. We started the college football season with the media constantly relaying that Caleb Williams and Maye were equals, or that either could go first overall. There was no evidence of that on tape.
Throughout the season — and I watched most of UNC’s games in 2023 — I just didn’t see what everyone else was seeing. In week one, I thought Spencer Rattler outplayed him even in a losing effort. In mid-October I wrote the following:
I feel like the only person who ever says anything non-gushing about Maye. Twitter was awash all weekend with nonsense about him going before Caleb Williams. That would be nuts. Williams had a carless performance against Notre Dame and it might act as a useful kick up the backside, given reports today that he might seek an ownership percentage in his first contract (come on). However, he is clearly also so unbelievably talented and the rightful #1 pick next year. Maye is an intriguing player too but this idea that he’s a top-five lock is hard to fathom.
I went on to review Maye’s performance against Miami in that article, which highlighted some of the issues. There’s plenty of good where the physical tools shine and the risk-taking pays off. There were also too many head-scratching moments in 2023, too many ugly plays and he was far too inconsistent with his technique and his decision making.
It’s why I’ve consistently graded him as a fringe first rounder, with clear separation on my horizontal board between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, then Daniels and the rest. I have Michael Penix Jr and Rattler ahead of Maye. The physical tools are alluring but I genuinely believe he is someone who needs time and development before he can start in the NFL.
That thinking is now, seemingly, starting to permeate through the media after the combine — where many of the talking heads will have spoken to people in the know.
Mike Garafolo was on KJR today and mentioned that he’s hearing from multiple sources that J.J. McCarthy, not Maye, is generally considered QB3. There’s a lot of hype around McCarthy at the moment but I’d suggest this is partly a review of Maye and how teams likely feel uncomfortable taking him in the top-five, with the subsequent pressure that will come to start him quickly.
A month ago Lance Zierlein cited a source saying Maye could fall, comparing his situation to Will Levis:
NFL Draft Analyst @LanceZierlein appearing on The Move the Sticks podcast with Daniel Jeremiah & Bucky Brooks said that an NFL evaluator told him that he thinks that UNC QB Drake Maye could fall in the draft. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/VQc9jFSLwM
— WBG84 (@WBG84) February 4, 2024
For what it’s worth, I’d argue Levis was on a different level physically to Maye and had better examples of translatable tape. That doesn’t mean Maye will drop to the #33 pick — Levis had some injury history and was older — but it’s interesting when considering what might happen in April.
Bob McGinn has started reporting intel from his scouting sources. Here’s a quote from one scout on Maye:
“He really didn’t raise the level of that program. That last game, I’ve never seen a quarterback who’s supposed to be a top guy have absolutely no answers for a team (North Carolina State). I always had concerns that he couldn’t raise his level, but that just cemented it. He shrunk under just the pressure and the gravity of what was going on around him. He’s got an arm. He can move around. But everything is just flashes. Nothing is consistent. It’s all flashes. Doesn’t have a very good feel for the game. There’s a little bit of Drew Lock in him.”
Here’s another scout, for balance:
“He’s still growing. They don’t drill fundamentals at all. But he’s big, good enough arm, smart, really accurate. I don’t know he’s going to be dynamic but guys like him win Super Bowls. He’s a pocket passer but he’s not a statue.”
Then there’s news from Tony Pauline today, where he initially reported that the Patriots are not enamoured with Maye and that teams are ‘hot and cold’ on the North Carolina prospect. In the latest ‘Draft Season’ podcast, he went a step further — saying, “Drake Maye is probably going to go in the middle part of round one.”
That would speak to the kind of fall Lance Zierlein was hinting at a month ago.
There are other things to consider here. Garafolo, again speaking on KJR earlier, said he would expect Michael Penix Jr to go in the first round. I spoke to a source at UW this week and asked for a best guess on where Penix Jr goes — and was told he won’t get past the #13 pick.
I can well imagine Penix Jr going before Maye, provided the medical checks are clear as reports suggest. He has an outstanding arm. Unlike Maye, he elevated Washington to new heights. He’s better placed to start quickly.
Then there’s McCarthy. It’s been interesting to listen to the analysis on him since the combine, where he didn’t have a great workout (contrary to what some are saying). As noted on Saturday, the big appeal here is going to be McCarthy the person and the fact he statistically performs well in key metrics such as third downs and scrambling completion percentage. Coaches like Sean Payton, who basically want a quarterback to work within the framework of the scheme and execute as they’re told to, will find McCarthy appealing. Denver trading up feels like a solid bet.
McCarthy isn’t an exceptional talent with amazing tape. He doesn’t seem, to me, like someone who will do what you want a top-level quarterback to do and occasionally win a big game with his arm and drag his team over the line. In a desperate quarterback driven league, though, someone will take him for the intangible and ‘money-down’ qualities and hope that he’ll be consistent — emotionally and performance wise.
And yes — I do think some teams will convince themselves that the immensely charismatic and likeable McCarthy has comparable personality traits, not to mention the same winning habit, as a certain other Michigan QB — even if that’s a fairly desperate reach. Thus, McCarthy going ahead of Maye suddenly feels plausible and perhaps very likely.
This could quickly become an ‘elite two’ at quarterback, with Williams now the consensus #1 pick (he always was) and Jayden Daniels being Washington’s clear selection at #2. Then things get interesting.
There’s increasing clamour that New England will trade down. They could auction the pick to Denver, Minnesota (who are very analytically driven in their front office) or the Giants before inevitably drafting an offensive tackle (people don’t realise Ron Wolf was a big trenches guy and his son may have a similar mindset). It’s also not a surprise that the Patriots seem like competitors for Baker Mayfield, given the decision makers in New England these days were big players and/or are linked to the people who took Mayfield first overall in Cleveland.
Don’t be surprised if Penix Jr is next off the board to a team like the Giants, Vikings or Raiders. It also won’t be a surprise if one of these three teams wait on Box Nix or Spencer Rattler (Rattler will go earlier than some think — possibly round two).
Where does that leave Maye?
It’s conceivable he is New York’s choice. They could sit him behind Daniel Jones for a year. Brian Daboll did wonders developing Josh Allen in Buffalo. However, Rich Eisen said the Giants ‘are done’ with Jones this week and if you take Maye at #6, good luck stopping the New York media clamouring for him to start right away. They might be better off going the Nix route — given his greater experience.
Would Minnesota or the Raiders draft Maye, forcing him to start quickly? Or the Falcons if they can’t land Kirk Cousins as many believe?
It’s very possible but the same kind of teams passed on Levis, despite the fact he was far more ready to start, flashing for the Titans as a rookie.
When John Schneider was asked at the combine why he’d met with Maye and Daniels, this was his answer:
“We have to be ready for anything. We don’t know if a certain trade will go down, or something happens, I mean, you guys have seen players fall in the past and we’ve seen teams be able to jump up and have successful trades moving up into the top-10 to draft guys and, so yeah, you just have to be prepared for everything.”
I think Maye is Schneider’s type of quarterback — big, creative, bit of a gunslinger mentality, unpolished. Maye’s personality also feels like it fits with the type of character Schneider would want to bring to this team. I suspect, given the huge amount of focus on character in the last two drafts, Seattle’s next big splash at QB will be for someone with A+ character. By all accounts, Maye seems to have that.
Schneider is also, I believe, someone who focuses on what a player can become. Even as a Maye-sceptic, I appreciate he has the tools to be excellent. It’s just about how much conviction you have that he’ll succeed, or how secure you feel in taking him early.
Being ready for anything, as Schneider said in the quote above, could mean being prepared for Maye to fall. If he fears the likes of Minnesota and Las Vegas, he might be willing to move up — just as the Bills did for Allen and the Chiefs did for Mahomes, Schneider’s two publicly known draft crushes.
Allen and Mahomes were considered rough diamonds, too. That’s easy to forget.
It could be ideal for the Seahawks and for Maye. For the team, it wouldn’t cost as much to move up into the #6-10 range than #3 overall. For the 21-year-old player, he could sit behind Geno Smith for a year while he makes critical adjustments to his footwork in preparation to start, while learning the playbook.
That could also be true for 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy, who might be getting rave reviews from Mike Macdonald and Jay Harbaugh. Both of course worked with the quarterback at Michigan. It’s hardly beyond the realms of possibility that they speak glowingly about McCarthy, or that the new Head Coach has told his new boss — this is the guy we need.
As I’ve talked about a lot recently, it feels like the Seahawks are very aware — now that John Schneider is in control — that they need a long term solution at quarterback. The non-committal answers about Smith, the meetings with the top QB’s at the combine, reporters like Peter King and Jeff Howe suggesting the Seahawks could be a team that has its eye on moving up for a QB.
There’s some smoke. We’ll see if there’s fire in the coming weeks.
Eventually though, they’ll need to do something. You can’t wait year after year for the ideal situation to fall into your lap. There are three ways to land a franchise quarterback. You can be bad enough to draft early (see: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert). You can get lucky with a mid or later round pick (see: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady). Or you need to be aggressive (see: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford).
I doubt the Seahawks plan to be picking earlier than 16th next year, in a class that is expected to have a thinner group of first round quarterbacks. If they are picking later than #16, or if there are fewer QB’s to go after, it’ll be harder to trade up. They could hope to be lucky but that’s not much of a plan.
Is this the year to ‘go for it’?
I firmly believe they are exhausting their options at quarterback in round one in this draft. If it simply isn’t possible, either because they can’t move up or because one they like doesn’t last to #16, they’ll have no choice but to crack on and take the best player left available instead, which would probably be a lineman. That would be fine.
I get the increasing sense, though, that Schneider does like the quarterbacks in this draft and is very open to finding a way to invest in one, knowing they have the ideal situation in Seattle to transition to the future rather than feeling pressure to throw a rookie in at the deep end.
This is going to be a fascinating off-season.
If you missed my interview with Michigan pass rusher Jaylen Harrell, check it out here. You can also listen to my latest visit with Puck & Jim on KJR, brought to you by Superior Linen, by clicking here.
Elvis Grbac? I think you’re really reaching there Rob.
But seriously folks, while I agree with your matching Maye with JS as a good possibility, it also feels similar to the Geno Smith yardsale tactic around the combine.
Explore all the opportunities. Don’t take anything for granted. Get feedback and intel.
The reverse of what you’re positing could happen. Maye is there at #16 and some lovesick team could be talked into giving up a future first-round to move up a handful of spots as well.
I’d be surprised if JS passed on Maye at 16
Sure, but that’s why he met with him. Intel, intel, intel.
And if he picked him even with somebody offering a nice package of picks, that would totally confirm his…um…earlier suppositions.
There is almost always a wide disparity between how the publicized rookie QB’s actually perform when they get to the NFL. Although they are different players, your review makes me wonder if Maye could be a Trubisky in waiting.
Odds are half the first round QB’s won’t make it, so which half is it gonna be this time?
I thought he might be referring to Jim Harbaugh himself.
It’s clearly Brian Griese
/s
The physical tools are alluring but I genuinely believe he is someone who needs time and development before he can start in the NFL.
i hope if the Seahawks draft a QB no matter who it is they take the time to develop vs ruining them playing too soon.
if Drake Maye falls out of the top 10 range do you trade up and get him? Maye’s arm doesnt make me go wow, but he has size/height reminds me of a raw Josh Allen. Dont know his intangibles if he is an Alpha or his work ethic so cant say much on those areas.
i think it would be worth the risk if the price isnt that high moving up just after top 10.
i would think Schneider trades down if the McCarthy Daniels Penix or Maye arent there. rather get 2 players trading down vs 1 player at 16. I feel you can get solid OL who can be impactful vs at 16
Personally, other than Williams and Rattler, they all need to sit. Nix you could maybe get by in certain offenses. I think Geno was the parallel plan: stay the course with a rookie who can sit. Lock was/is the contingency plan if something happens with Geno.
I can see Schneider getting someone and then doing whatever it takes to get them to work out.
The one thing John is one of the best at is knowing the range of the players they want.
I think you can add Penix to the early-starter candidates. Particularly if we draft him – He’s got more time in Grubb’s offense than anyone.
Personally, I think that holds him back. Too user friendly. I worry that he’s too used to it and the adjustment won’t go well for him.
Grubb is going to have to tweak it and make it more complex. Penix has only been in that offense since high school. Him in that offense, in the NFL worries me.
Schneider’s influences in GB and KC have been willing to aggressively target a QB then let him sit. I suspect John will be willing to do the same.
I hope they have the balls to go get their guy, if they have a guy they like this cycle. I am absolutely sick of watching Geno Smith miss seeing wide open receivers or seeing him and choosing not to throw.
If it is Maye, so be it. Not my choice, but anything is better than what we have now.
The comparison to Drew Lock is a bit unnerving.
Lock has a big arm and is mobile…perhaps even more so than Maye.
What has held Lock back… his processing ability and intangibles?
Does Maye show signs of bettering Lock in those areas?
Clearly, JS likes Lock, so it follows he’d like Maye.
Is Maye more than just a younger version of Lock, though?
Lock and Maye are the kind of QBs you take a shot on IMO. They won’t all work out though. Absolutely there is risk with drafting Maye.
Very interesting Rob. I wonder if they would have the guts to trade down if Maye is there at 16?
Maybe a small trade down where they take the highest rated player on their board. Let’s say they go down 6 spots. They pick up a 3rd. Maye keeps falling after that.
How much would it take to trade back into the 1st, say with the Chiefs, to take Maye at 32?
I’m assuming that Penix and McCarthy are gone before 16. Maybe Bo Nix too. That leaves Rattler and Maye.
To me Maye absolutely falls in that rough diamond category where I would not be terribly surprised if he turns out to be the best or worst QB in this group. He’s all the more difficult to project because his supporting cast seemed terrible. Personally I’m hoping that he and Penix make it to the early teens, if for no other reason to see what Schneider does (a la Levis last year).
I think I’d prefer they trade back in round 1 and take Rattler, while adding another pick in the 2nd or 3rd.
Really great article Rob. This is a prime example of why you are amongst the very best writing about the draft on any level.
It will be absolutely gripping drama if Maye and Penix both last into the teens.
Thank you
Couldn’t have laid out any better myself. I think the QB options in the draft are:
1. Trade up for a falling QB like Maye/Penix/McCarthy.
2. Stay put and hope Maye/Penix/McCarthy are there.
3. Stay put if a blue chipper is there and select them, then trade back into the second round for Rattler or another falling QB.
4. If a blue chipper isnt there and QBs are gone, trade back and eventually land on Ratter or other falling QB.
The whole draft plan doesn’t have to be based around getting a QB
You decide who you want, it can be more than one, you exhaust options to acquire them. If it’s not possible, move on.
Agreed. But if you identify one guy as being head and shoulders above the rest you had better be aggressive and not let someone else snipe you, as potentially happened with Mahomes.
Until you have a franchise QB, it should be. But yes, you have to first identify which ones are worth taking a shot on and what range, then come draft day see if those shots are there to take. Obviously if it’s like the 2022 draft and there’s no good ones, your strategy changes. The only other position I’d try to keep hitting on is pass rusher. Two priority positions, then BPA all the way.
I talk as much as anyone about the priority being finding a top QB until they have one. But you don’t structure your entire draft to take any quarterback just because. You just don’t. That’s going too far in analysing this.
As I’ve said — you identify who you like, if any, exhaust options to acquire them and if you can’t, it’s tough s**t and they can get other good players at other positions (not just pass rusher)
Isn’t that what I’m saying? I’m not saying ANY quarterback. Step one is find the one(s) you believe in. However, if they aren’t there I would actually go a step farther though and try and trade for more picks in the next draft…
If there’s going to be another championship window in the Seahawks future it’s going to be with an elite QB on a rookie contract. The difficulty is how middle of the pack Seattle remains, picking at #16 this year and not likely to be bad enough to crack the top 10 of the draft in 2025 either. It’s difficult to pull out of mediocrity without having at least one dumpster fire of a season and landing a stud prospect like CJ Stroud, but Green Bay while JS was there managed to, first by trading RD1 #17 overall for Brett Favre and later drafting Aaron Rodgers after he fell to R1 pick #24 in the draft. There are several paths forward and I’m confident JS isn’t going to make a panic move like I believe Pete Carroll has been primarily responsible for. Regardless, there is so much more intrigue this offseason with all the changes so far and what’s next to come when short sighted fixes and expensive bandaids make way for a long term plan to win the Super Bowl.
Picking in the top 5 is the easiest route, but with a combination of luck and good evaluation you can get to an elite QB from the mid-first.
Brees, Rogers, Mahomes, Lamar, Allen, Herbert, Watson – all went after or within striking distance of 16. Not to mention guys like Brady, Russ, or Dak.
Do we have any more sense now of why Levis fell so far last year? It’s still perplexing to me.
I wasn’t particularly high on him, but still, he has all the tools and seemingly good character.
This is something I wish I really knew too.
It was the Mayo in the coffee. Horrifying and a true culture disrupter.
The “really accurate” statement caught my eye. To me, that’s a large factor with QBs. Processing is even more im portant. Sounds like he needs work in that area. Would a year learning improve that?
Watch Drake Maye highlight videos and he looks like the next great QB. Mobile, athletic, plus arm, layers throws between defenders, and attacks the entire field. I get the Herbert comparisons.
Watch some every throw in a game videos and the down sides show up—he stares down receivers, rarely makes it through progressions, has lots of throws with questionable ball placement, etc.
That gives me pause but I think you have to pick a QB on what he can be, not just what he is. Maye has the potential based solely on traits to be a top 5 QB. He could also be Mitch Trubisky. Personally I would love to take the gamble and Geno would be a great bridge QB.
He is also just 21 and lots of room for growth.
Maye and McCarthy I’m a bit more lenient on, since they’re 21 and only started two years. What concerns me about the others is they’ve played 4-5 seasons and there’s not as much room for growth. Of course, with two year starts comes more risk as well.
I’m totally with you on that. Where was Jayden Daniels two years ago?
Daniels, nix, penix. Where were all of them two years ago?
On the other hand Maye and Mccarthy don’t have the starts that typically translate into success.
I see the Broncos released Simmons (S) today. I know he might be expensive, but could he be McDonald’s Kyle Hamilton for our Hawks?
Go Hawks!
I would hope we’re done overpaying for safeties.
We’ve spent too much on older expensive safeties
Seattle should never again overpay for safeties. Not unless they are hall of fame calibre like Chancellor and Thomas. Anything else, next!!
Maye reminds me a lot of Jordan love. Similar players and similar college careers. It’s still early for love but first year was promising after sitting.
I see Maye as a fairly risky pick. He seems to struggle when things go off script and whenever he’s under pressure, his overall accuracy is just ok (75.1% adjusted completion percentage – 25th in FBS) and alarmingly he can struggle with easier/shorter passes even.
I get that there aren’t many complete/perfect QB’s to be picked in the draft and I do see that he has excellent tools to work with and hopefully develop. I just see what you see Rob, a draft prospect who should be graded out somewhere like late first round both because of his real flaws and because he would need time to develop (and correct).
So knowing you do have to take (often risky) shots at finding your QB and knowing they tend to get selected higher than they probably should; then the question becomes what is acceptable draft stock to give up to take a risk on said player? My hope is John and Mike would’nt mortgage too much to take a real risk on a guy that ‘should’ be going later in round 1.
In all actuality I’d prefer a trade down for a late 2nd early 3rd pick and then grab either best player available or take Rattler and lessen the overall risk while also adding more to your roster with the trade back.
John Schneider on 710 certainly sounds like he really wants to keep Leonard Williams. Called him a priority
Offhand started the convo talking about Aaron Rodgers who fell to #24
JS says “hope to be done” with cutting players.
If that’s 100% (take that as you will) Lockett is either retiring or they’re going to rework his contract.
I am quite disappointed to hear that Schneider does not want to cut more Pete players. This makes me fear that he still has a good amount of Pete blood in his DNA. We all wanted a fresh start from Pete. But if you really think about it, Schneider has worked with Pete for 15 years. Pete’s oversentimentality over brutal tactics has had to have rubbed off on him to a degree more than which any here would like. But hopefully Big Mac Mike can help him in these regards. Fingers crossed.
Technically they are all Pete’s guys. Do you just want them to cut everyone? You act like Pete was just a cancer that destroyed the team.
I missed the start
It wasn’t earth shattering. He was getting set up and said “remember we talked about players falling in the draft? AR was at #24, was supposed to be #1.”
Sounds like he was as talking about the point you put in the piece.
John did say that the criticism about Jamal Adams not being worth 2 first round picks as “not cool”. It sounds like he was just as responsible for the trade as Pete.
I think that whole comment string needs some serious context.
First off – the premise of the original question was absolutely ridiculous. It was a question worthy of Seahawks Twitter, that’s how bad it was.
The question was an emotional ‘one of the most irritating things we hear is when we get texts that say Adams went soft after getting the big payday.’
It was a slanted question that has a premise that represents probably 1-2% of the fanbase’s actual feelings, and allowed JS a strawman-type fallacy he could take aim at.
The great majority of Adams’ matador moves were well before that big contract was signed. And honestly, if anything, we saw Adams being ‘too pumped and jacked’ multiple times after signing. Likely trying to justify that large contract in the only way he knew how.
But it allowed JS some righteous indignation and the chance to vent some of his frustration over how ridiculous the trade was.
He also flat out said ‘there are things we could have done better, and there are things Jamal could have done better’ as well. Admitting they both made a hash of things.
He then pivoted to an unprompted frustration that fans criticized the trade compensation package. I think he’s been stung by the criticism, and those feelings are pretty raw because it’s been 48hrs or less since he had to publicly admit the trade has been a disaster.
But we all know that in JS’s heart of hearts, the trade was a terrible process that brought terrible results. He won’t refrain from taking a big swing in the future (LW trade) but he has a new position as the ‘face of the franchise’ and being the guy who takes the shots from the public.
If anyone expected him to go on the air and rub gravel through his hair and publicly say the trade was a disaster, that is a pretty naive line of thinking.
And John’s defense of the trade package was totally inept, brushing off any legit concerns about the whether they ‘should’ve’ used two firsts on Adams and focusing instead on his draft position, as if that means you can only acquire a player like that by giving away a haul comparable to trading up
He just needs to eat it and move on. It was a shocking decision by whoever — that’s just the reality
He was just spouting the same company line they’ve been saying for years. I remember him saying that the weekend after the JA trade to Peter King and PC saying it multiple times.
But it’s starkly laid out now. Nobody would draft a safety in the top 5 unless it’s an absolutely rotten class, and the current safety market is undergoing an absolute bloodbath this offseason.
Rob, do you think Seattle should trade back in hopes of acquiring a 2nd rd pick?
I am not Rob (duh). But I think he’s said in the past that trading down will only net Seattle a 3rd and possibly later round picks.
Ugh that no 2nd rd pick in this deep class is a killer. Thanks Pete!
Not entirely true. The line of thinking discussed on here before has been that if your goal is to trade down in round one within a range where you can still get a really good player, you’ll only want to move down a handful of spots or so. That smaller move isn’t worth a 2nd round pick to someone.
There is a world where you trade down to the bottom of rd1 and that bigger drop down is worthy of a second round pick. Issue there is that you’re missing out on the few round 1 graded players.
You just need to decide which you’d rather have. One round 1 graded player or two round two graded players. (Because that’s all this likely to be available at the end of round 1)
Maye is a good prospect and worthy of the 16th overall pick. Him sitting behind Geno would be a good thing for him and I do think his chances of success would go up.
He’s very talented, but raw. If you listen to his interviews though, he’s got his head on straight. I personally like Penix more but totally understand why he is generally rated higher. Younger, better on the move, no lengthy injury history.
Wilkins vs Leonard, who would you guys target? Wilkins might be even more expensive
This is hard because Williams has played a good old while. But wilkins is kind if old to be just getting going.
I am confused. Is Maye legit TQBOTF, or is just just another overhyped college qb. It seems to be every year there is a college qb who all of the draft experts spent their entire career saying were going to be a top 5 sure fire stud. Then the draft process takes off and they slowly fall down to earth as the experts learn what teams actually think. It was Levis last year. Now it appears to be Maye who draft experts and scouts were never on the same page as. It almost makes you wonder who to believe. But Seattle need to get it figured out. Because if Maye falls to them and they take him, and he is NOT TQBOTF, they will be in an even worse place than they are today. They will be like when Denver took Paxton Lynch or Tim Tebow or Drew Lock. Heck, I think Lock might be as good as Maye!!!! Maybe Seattle should just keep Lock, cut overpaid mediocre Geno, and draft Rattler instead!
It’s just draft season.
How did mccarthy go from fringe first rounder to maybe top five while not doing anything?
Why was Maye automatic #2?
If Nil was different and same to covid rules Penix would be a UDFA. Nix a later round flyer.
What I am confused over is are these players indeed falling down boards of teams, or have media and experts been off on previous projections and they were never high to begin with? Is it both? Because there sure seem to he a massive variance year to year. I recall a couple years ago where Matt Corrall was considered a 1st rounder at this point in draft season. And then he wasn’t. And now he’s playing in lesser leagues.
Honey Badger was signed to a two year extension for $13 mil, total.
And we were paying our broken guys how much?
I very much hope those were Pete deals. Him overpaying his guys and his “locker room leaders” because he valued his “culture” over tactical analysis.
The name Pete Carroll doesn’t belong in the same sentence with words like “tactical analysis”.
🤣
If my calculations are correct, this would be the likely compensation according to the new school trade chart:
9. CHI: Future 2nd rounder or our two 3rd round picks
10. NYJ: One 3rd rounder and our 5th rounder
11. MIN: Our first 3rd rounder
12. DEN: Our second 3rd rounder and maybe we get a 6th Rd pick back
I’m old enough to remember Monday when Penix would be a good pick if we traded back and got him in the 20’s.
How does Maye look vs his predecessor Howell? About the same. Womp womp.
We wish we could trade down for Penix at this point!!!! 😢
Maye falling out of the top 10, McCarthy rising into the top 5, cats and dogs living together!! Draft time is a trip. Thank goodness the options at 16, or maybe a slight trade back or up, can still yield an impact player that fans can be excited about. I would be disappointed if McCarthy is Seattle’s pick in R1 but if he lasts until the 2nd round, after a JS trade back of couse, that wouldn’t feel like such a massive reach and I would be juiced to add additional draft picks from trading back; I’d prefer Penix, Rattler, or Nix before McCarthy.
I’m a Maye doubter.
I’ll spare a recitation of all the things that I think make him a lesser Lock.
I can squint and see why Schneider might like Maye, but that requires me thinking a lot less of JS.
There are things I believe.
Williams is going 1, Daniels is going 2 (commies may trade out), the Pats are trading out of 3 and that pick will likely be JJ McCarthy (and they can have him).
That next group of 4 will be fascinating. Two players that I think will appeal to the Broncos. Two prospects we are hoping don’t end up with the Rams.
To me all roads lead back to Penix. I don’t think he is a R1 QB (maybe this is me over correcting for my bias), but is almost certain to be overdrafted.
In the end, if you take Penix at 16, or trade up to 3 and take Penix is that really that big of a difference. Question I’m asking myself.
Lock had worse accuracy in college and was seen as a bit immature. I think Maye is a clearly better prospect.
To trade up to 3 would be a team crippling move imo. Would take multiple 1’s, multiple 2’s and probably a player
Not if you hit on a franchise quarterback.
Desperate hope is not a strategy. Jody should have written this on a blackboard at VMAC and made Pete Carroll write it ten thousand times. (Or just fired his butt two years ago when we had all the draft capital.)
If you have true conviction about a QB shoot your shot. Doing something bold isnt always desperate.
I want to play a little devil’s advocate here. A year ago someone leaked the report about Stroud scoring low on the S2 Test as a clear attempt to push him down the draft boards. Are we sure these Maye reports aren’t the 2024 version of that?
These Maye opinions are based on his tape, not a cognitive test. Pretty different IMO.
I agree. I think the cognitive test was a silly overcorrection because of Purdy doing great on it. All of the draft “experts” thought they found they new golden egg and massively overvalued it. But in reality the egg was spoiled and full of rotten eggs. Because Stroud is a LEGIT TQBOTF! Unlike Purdy who is a “nice” game manager bobble head. How much are we hearing about that test today??? Hmmmmmmmm. Coincidence?
I could be wrong, but I don’t think it the “draft experts” just stumbled upon that information. I think a team leaked it in order to get Stroud to fall to them. It wouldn’t shock me now if these Maye reports were being driven by a team(s) to push him down the board as well.
Throughout the process I have been aligned with Rob on where I think Maye should be ranked. His tape has plenty of bad plays, but if you focus on what he CAN do, there are plays that only elite QBs can make.
If we are aligned with Rob, we should think Maye is a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
What do we thinking Maye is a 2nd rounder have to do with anything? I’m posing an alternate thought to reason behind these Maye reports. Last year, some team(s) clearly tried to push Stroud down to them by leaking the S2 info.
All it takes is 2 teams to love Maye. What if those 2 teams are WAS at #2 and lets say a team like the NYG at #6. Mike Sando reported that Adam Peters is “very into” Drake Maye. I think it is possible that these reports knocking Maye could be from a team trying to start the momentum of pushing him down the board.
It’s not a smokescreen, it’s just reality
This is what the tape has always shown
No — because I’ve been saying all these things about Maye since last summer. This isn’t anything ‘new’ it’s just the mainstream now saying what the reality is instead of all the nonsense that is watching one good play on Twitter and quote tweeting to tell everyone Maye could go first overall
JS revealed quite a bit about the combine. Essentially, once you are done with the interview process…. might as well pack it up and go home. More teams are sending less personnel to the combine, so the information gathering / wheeling and dealing aspects of the combine are being reduced each year. He also doesn’t like how they have stretched out the workout process for primetime audiences.
He also mentioned he was surprised to find the new HC didn’t have a whiteboard in his office. This made me think he was hinting at Seattle doing a few things different related to the run-up to the draft. Overall evaluation process differences.
Rob, thank you for another great article. I enjoy reading your thoughts on how the draft can play out for the Seahawks, all the possibilities.
I think it goes without saying the Seahawks have a plan and that plan is most likely a consensus amongst the coaching staff and front office. I have a lot of respect for John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Ryan Grubb, Aden Durde and Jay Harbaugh. So I find it hard to believe that if they want to draft a QB, they would start their new regime by drafting a QB with average athletic traits who has a much better chance of failing than succeeding.
JS especially has to be feeling some amount of pressure to get things right and a new coaching staff, for sure.
I think there are three QB’s in this draft that they might be interested in and Penix is probably the only one within reasonable reach.
Do you ever feel like John Schneider might just have a great agent or PR team? How are we really to know if he loved Mahomes and Allen? It’d be easy to let that out afterward to build Schneider’s status and profile. If he loved them so much, why didn’t he get them? Allen lasted until pick #7 and it was “rumored” that Schneider wanted to take him #1 overall. He had six more opportunities to trade up for him after that! As for Mahomes, he had 10 opportunities to trade up before the Chiefs came up and got him. Until I see him swing, I’m not going to grade who might or might not have been the QB he loved.
If I recall correctly, there were Mahomes rumors prior to the draft. So I think Schneider liked him. But only enough to take him if he last to their pick near the end of the 1st. For this alone, I think he doesn’t get too much credit. So he liked him, great. KC liked him MUCH MUCH more!
As for Allen, this is the scenario I feel where Schneider’s agent deserves money. I am still not convinced that he wasn’t trying to trade up for Baker Mayfield. The reason for this being he tried to trade for the #1 pick. And ONLY the #1 pick. Once Mayfield was taken, he never against tried to trade up. If he really wanted Allen, he had a bunch more opportunities, and opportunities cheaper than what he attempted for the #1 pick. Someone please explain to me why an NFL GM would try to trade for the #1 pick for a player. And then proceed to watch that player slip to #7 without one single reported or rumored attempt. I call bush weasel on this fable! Schneider wanted Mayfield. Yes, he liked Allen and attended his pro day. But to myself this comes across as convenient revisionist history.
If Schnitzel was such a great QB guru as many profess, why has he only taken 2 QB in 15 seasons?! Wilson and MacGough. LmAO.
I think Rob is on the money the vast majority of the time in his analysis of TQBOTF, but I fear his credit to Schneider for being from GB and how GB was so good at finding multiple TQBOTF is a confluence of analysis.
I hope I am wrong and Rob is right!
The report was Allen so I’ll go with that rather than made up speculation about Baker. Baker had the kind of personality that they avoided.
There is way too much time until the draft….
I do not recall an actual report. Just that he attended Allen’s pro day and much was made an ordeal over it.
I will ask again. If he loved him so much and was willing to trade for the #1 overall draft selection, why would he not do so for draft selections 2 through 6????? Surely we would have heard about those failed attempts as well.
Because you get to pick who you want when you have the first overall pick. Good way to make sure that you get your guy.
Why trade so much to go to 6 and then miss out? Also, not everyone was looking for a qb. The Browns clearly were.
I mean AFTER Mayfield was selected. Schnitzel could have tried to trade up for any of the other picks after Mayfield and other players who were not Allen were selected. He didn’t.
SCHNEIDER! NOT SCHNITZEL!!! (autocorrect)
Carroll supposedly vetoed the trade, too.
Schneider, not Schnitzel. (Autocorrect)
“I call bush weasel on this fable!”
lol, what?
Great points
JS specifically mentioned Mahomes as the top QB of his draft year. This is extremely rare for him to ever mention any player by name, besides perhaps Aaron Rodgers. It was during a radio interview a number of years ago where he casually mentioned how he thought Mahomes would stay off the radar, but (unfortunately for JS) blew up his draft stock during the combine interviews and pro day workout. He casually dropped an 80 yard bomb on target during the pro day, cemented him as a top QB prospect.
We’ve been over this.
It was reported seconds after Mahomes was taken by KC that the Seahawks loved him. So this isn’t ‘hindsight PR’ because if Mahomes had been a bust, it wouldn’t have reflected well on JS. Plus, all the talk on Allen started when Allen sucked — and he did, for the first two years of his career.
So no, this isn’t ‘great PR’. And nothing about John has ever been about ‘flashy image management’ anyway
The Seahawks had a franchise quarterback
We’ve been over this loads of times
The question for the next seven weeks will be:
Which guy does John Schneider like?
J.J. McCarthy stats
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jj-mccarthy-1.html
McCarthy the last two years had 44 TDs and only 9 ints. I realized that Michigan’s offense is loaded. And maybe he wasn’t ask to do much. But when he was called on to come up with the big plays he performed at his best. He was one of the best 3rd down QBs in college football. One reason Huard loves McCarthy is because of his leadership skills.
BTW: Jaylen Harrell pretty much confirmed much of what Brock Huard said about J.J. McCarthy. Harrell had high praise for McCarthy.
McCarthy sacrificed his stats for good of the team.
Don’t know if McCarthy is the guy. John Schneider will not show his hand until the very last moment.
As has been said by multiple others before, Seattle has truly rare insight into McCarthy and Penix. There will be a lot that goes into their evaluation of those two in particular that we can only guess at.
I do not understand how Seattle can have “elite” insight on McCarthy from a 1 season defensive coach. Penix, I will grant you because Grubb was his OC for 2 seasons.
I mean MacDonald spent a year in the same locker room as him, watching him from the sideline, practicing against him, and certainly has relationships with his direct coaches. It would be hard for me to believe he wouldn’t have significantly better insight into McCarthy the person than almost anyone outside of Jim Harbaugh.
I would think his OC and QB coach and offensive teammates all would.
Not sure how much practicing against him he would have done. Mccarthy would have been running second team drills then.
I’m sure he has good insight.
Mike Macdonald is Jim Harbaugh’s buddy from his time as Michigan’s DC, and since the Chargers have Herbert and are not competing with the Seahawks for a QB (and Chargers and Seahawks are not division rivals), Jim will probably tell Mike the truth about McCarthy behind the scenes.
Don’t forget Jay Harbaugh, Seattle’s new ST coach, who’s been with Michigan for the past 9 years. He’d have valuable insider input.
I don’t think you are sacrificing stats when the team doesn’t want you to be touching the ball….
And good luck finding any teammate or coach that is going to say anything bad about their qb. Huard is also a pretty bad talent evaluator, especially with qb’s.
I’m fairly on record with my doubts about John.
I feel very confident for some reason that a fringe first round qb with:
– good not great athleticism
-good not dynamic arm
-that has his hand held in any game against a real opponent
-that has faced zero adversity and challenge
-who said choosing between hockey and football is THE hardest choice he’s ever had to make.
Will not be a qb that moves the needle for John at his current price point.
Put Mccarthy on any other team, same stat line, no natty, no harbaugh/macdonald, no rich eisen being a frickin creep….
No one would be talking about his great personality they’d be ripping to shreds games like bowling Green where he went 8-13 and threw multiple picks.
He doesn’t have the arm or the skillset.
He isn’t like Dalton, who played a lot in college and at least ran the offense and was allowed to make plays and be a weapon. Harbaugh has never treated a qb that way.
He’s the one guy that Schneider isn’t going to touch. Travis later in the draft is more likely.
Don’t agree he won’t touch him
And Travis is absolutely tiny per his latest workout video
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned by any media at all this year, is that both McCarthy and Maye have very small hands for the QB position 9 inc and 9 1/8 inches respectively. In the past this would have been a big talking point.
Burrow, Mahomes, and Brady are all in that range or smaller.
Are they Kenny Pickett small? Because if so…..
I think Pickett had 8 1/2” hands but there were rumblings they were more like 8 1/8-1/4
Cue Rob and Robbie with “tiny hands”.
This seems like a classic smokescreen. This kind of nonsense usually follows the combine. Reporters need something to jabber about and thus report rumors and innuendo from teams (Seattle? ) hoping a particular player will slide. Invariably some fall for it as it confirms their priors.
Drake Maye will not make it out of the top ten, and likely will be a top three pick. He’s 21. So what if he struggled a bit down the stretch? His tools are excellent and teams are desperate to find QBs with his size and potential. The Lock and Levis comparisons are absurd.
So….place your bets. Who’s willing to wager $200 donated to SDB that Maye drops out of top 10. If he does then I’ll donate. If he’s drafted top 10 you’ll donate the money. Who’s feeling lucky?
I don’t even know where to start with this 🤦♂️
SDB fanduel obviously
Really think the target is Penix; if they want a quarterback and Maye drops to 16 they may well bite. Personally I bet MM wishes he could have a shot at Daniel’s.
My personal choice is Rattler at some point. Regarding his issues at Okl. I think he had a wake up call to playing in structure. His persistence shows he can do that and sitting a year would greatly benefit him. Not top their but special, and you need special.
Are we down playing somewhat the now unquestioned charisma and leadership JJ McCarthy has? Would that not elevate and inspire players around him more? I’d view that aa a valuable trait and a positive.
How on earth are we downplaying that?
He’s being talked about as a freakin top-10 pick
You know what really elevates a team? A quarterback that is better than a cheerleader, or a game manager.
We still need someone to be a difference maker and play at a high level.
Unquestioned charisma and leadership.
I’ve got questions like why did he never lead his team to more than one win against ranked opponents on his own skills.
Charisma? This is for the nerds but this isn’t D&D. You don’t win football games with charisma checks. You win by being tangibly better than your opponent.
Intangibles matter though
Right.
But not more than other things.
Geno is big in the locker room.
Turns out Russ was a phony who the players hated.
One of those two has had a miles better career than the other.
Charisma? LMAFO.
What’s next. Momentum is real?🙄
If Pete were still around, he would be all about charisma or grittiness or whatever else hollow buzz words he loved. The new Big Mac Mike era need be one of tactical excellence and brilliant game breaking talent above all else!
It sounds like Mike Macdonald is no longer ambivalent about Geno Smith. According to Corbin Smith, Mike said the following on the KJR radio show:
“I’m excited for Geno to start playing, get with Ryan and Charles and go to work. That’s what I’m excited about, for him to come in here and start to build this team the way we envision it.”
I listened and didn’t get anything out of it. He’s looking forward to Grubb building the offense and Geno getting in to work — which we all kind of expect now anyway, given the Schultz report, the money situation and the total lack of any trade buzz
Still didn’t say anything committed to Geno, didn’t praise him, just talked about him coming in
But Corbin’s desperate to make this into more than it needs to be so not a surprise
Corbin was also bemoaning the release of Mone. A rotational DT who was never that good.
Seriously???
You were right about cutting Mone for sure. I just remember this however; when Mone and Woods were on the line together they stopped any running up the gut. It funneled running to outside. I longed for that, Seahawks need something like that. Sweating it out for round 3.
Corbin loves him some interior DL underdog stories.
Remember when Cedrick Lattimore had a handful of disruptive snaps in the 2020 playoffs Rams loss game and he was his biggest fan that offseason?
Lattimore was never heard from again.
Oh, and in case this fell under the radar, Mone was cut with a Non Football Injury designation.
It could mean he suffered another injury, got sick, or just stopped his rehabbing and was in violation of the CBA rules for injured players.
I think he’s done in the NFL.
Give me a break with Corbin. He’s nothing but a cheerleader fan boy who desperately wants to be taken seriously on X. I am fairly certain he is paying a crap load for SEO as well. He is trying to get national headlines and picked up by all the national and X news aggregators. His “rise” to Seattle reporter prominence is very hollow and prove why it’s so vital to find true sources such as Rob and SDB. 👍
2 times this off-season I have seen Corbin steal reports from Tony Pauline as his own. He said he didn’t see it reported anywhere that Seattle met with Byron Murphy. But Pauline had previously reported so. Convenient wording by Corbin, “I haven’t seen anyone else say it. So here is me acting like I’m first.” This sort of reporting should he illegal on X. At the very least it be discredit said reporter from any legitimacy with the fan base he reports to.
Build the lines. A stout offensive line makes the QB, the RBs and the Receivers more successful. A disruptive, disciplined defensive line makes the LBs and the DBs better. You can get by with average skill position players.
As much as I appreciate the need to improve the trenches, I also think this is mostly just football rhetoric
You need good weapons and a quality QB
And you can’t pick and choose ideal ways to build. You don’t pass up a QB due to timing, and you don’t force picks in the trenches through ideology either
It’s possible you get the QB and then improve the trenches. KC are a good example of doing that
Forcing trench picks is how you get Collier
And Derek Hall. Aka LJ Collier Jr 2.0.
Something I’m wondering. When can the staff and contracted players begin getting together to try and help out with all the decisions that need to be made?.
Do they have to wait for OTA’s, F.A. or another time?
Teams with new coaches get a window for a workout program in, I believe, mid-April
Hit the Key Dates link at the top of the page.
TLDR: April 1
Just saw a report saying Russell Wilson is flying to PIT…. I don’t see many other opportunities for him. I wish him well
He made a stop this morning to meet with the NYG according to Schefter.
I just saw that too. Friends and family in Vegas are saying the Raiders would be a good fit as well. It would kind of be funny to see him play for the Raiders on the Broncos’ dime.
Seahawk fans are getting another full dose of Brock Huard’s fanboy love of JJ this morning. Then you’ve got Salk still pounding the table about packaging DK for picks, getting a 1st and 3rd in return, using one pick on JJ and the other 1st on Fautanu.
So JJ now has all the protection he needs to throw screens to JSN?
Good grief. Add in Corbin complaining that all of his Seahawk jerseys aren’t good anymore, and MSD blaming John that he brought on players that he couldn’t keep on the team until he dies….
We get better insight on random Youtube videos from guys that spend 2 minutes talking about the Seahawks before moving onto the other 31 teams….
This is actually true.
This week has been rough on Twitter.
It’s like the days after RW was traded and Wagner was cut. Fans who have staked such a hard position out backpedaling, lashing out, making excuses, looking for any crumb to justify their original position, etc.
I love how the “anti-Geno haters” are desperately clinging on to the fact that MM actually said Geno’s name without immediately following it up with Drew Lock’s or talking about the draft class.
It’s second only to the “safeties are the secret ingredient” contingent. The Seahawks had two of the highest paid (and in their mind, well-regarded) safeties and fielded a terrible defense in their best years here. And it’s not just the Seahawks who are moving. The top 10 safety cap hit list is like a who’s who of bloody cuts this offseason. Harrison Smith is 35 and has a $19m cap number, he’s next.
The overpaid Safety looks like a thing of the past. The market is flooded with vets that will definitely be seeing smaller contracts.
Why is Salk struggling so hard with basic supply and demand calculations.
Dk is probably overpaid because the way we use him and he’s not playing with young Matt stafford but injured Wilson and blanking out in game Geno. Fine.
However DK’s trade worth is at its lowest point ever right now.
Mike Salk is delusional if he think DK Metcalf is worth that! What is so funny is I have listened to 2 experts on his show tell him that there is no way in heck that DK Metcalf will ever return a 1st round pick let alone a 1st and more. When he is told this he says, “OK then don’t trade him. Only do it for a AJ Brown return.” Then he proceeds to say it all over agains the next day. Talk about a blind squirrel trying to find a nut!
Devil’s advocate: I somewhat get the dialogue regarding trading DK Metcalf if it drastically helps the team. If John doesn’t see DK sticking around, why not try to get something for him? Pete liked reclamation projects and didn’t seem to mind edgy players. Do John/MM feel the same?
Logic: DK has a pretty big contract And with such a loaded wide receiver draft class, I don’t know if we get a 1st and 3rd for DK, unless it was someone like the Chiefs. I feel we went that we already went that route with Frank Clark and it hurt us. We’d be footing the whole bill for him to play elsewhere, so maybe that helps yield a return; then again why rob from a known strength with the uncertainty of Tyler and TE position?
Not again 🤦♂️
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I am no way thinking or wanting DK Metcalf to be traded. Very unrealistic
Whatever was the case with the ominous DK post on X by official Seattle X account?
I have been going back and forth and right know I say just take a really good O line at 16
Do u think the Seahawks are in play for fields at QB?
No
Good instinct on Seahawks interest in a UNC quarterback… Just turned out to be the wrong year 😉