The Seahawks will be able to bolster their O-line in this draft
This was an impressive day at the combine, both in terms of players excelling during drills and wowing with their sheer size and length. There are appealing first round options and this will undoubtedly go down as one of the richest offensive tackle drafts in years. However, there are also good options in the middle rounds.
Firstly, the big names. It’s frankly unbelievable that Amarius Mims at 6-7 and 340lbs ran a 4.33 short shuttle. In comparison, Michigan cornerback Josh Wallace — who is 155lbs lighter than Mims, ran a 4.35. Aaron Donald, at 285lbs, ran a 4.39.
This should be considered a more headline-grabbing achievement than Xavier Worthy running a 4.21 forty. It’s barely believable that Mims has this level of agility at his size. Granted, there are concerns about his lack of playing time in college and he didn’t do on-field drills today after hurting his thigh running the forty yard dash (an impressive 5.07). However, there typically aren’t humans like Mims on the planet and he deserves to be considered an elite talent with major upside. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility he has a Tyron Smith type career given his body, athleticism and upside.
EDIT — there’s now talk of the Mims short shuttle time being an error and his time has indeed been removed from the combine results page. However, I still think Mims is an incredible physical specimen.
Unsurprisingly, Taliese Fuagu and Troy Fautanu both excelled.
Fuagu is never going to blow you away as a tester but on the field he moved with light feet and quickness. We know on tape he’s a brutal mauler so seeing him get around as well as we did here should cement his placing firmly in the top-14. It will be a bit of a surprise if he lasts beyond the New York Jets at #10.
Fautanu ticked off plenty of boxes today — firstly measuring with ideal 34.5 inch arms (retaining the possibility he sticks at tackle) before jumping a 32.5 inch vertical and a 9-5 broad. The ideal baseline for explosive testing is a 31 inch vertical and a 9-1 broad jump, so Fautanu is an outstanding athlete. There’s a very real possibility he will be drafted by Seattle at #16 — not just because of his familiarity within the scheme either. He’s extremely aggressive, he can play multiple positions, he’s an explosive athlete, he’s a high character individual and he has the necessary length. He is a legit top-20 pick in any draft.
Tyler Guyton also performed well during drills and performed a 34.5 inch vertical. I thought Joe Alt’s workout was unspectacular and Olu Fashanu didn’t do anything after hurting himself in the 40. Perhaps the most interesting thing with Fashanu was the revelation that he only has 8.5 inch hands on a 6-6, 312lbs frame. That’s exactly the same hand size as Kenny Pickett — but he wasn’t 6-6 and 312lbs.
JC Latham passed the eye test and I like the comparisons to Tristan Wirfs. He will almost certainly be a top-15 pick and could be an option for the Seahawks if he lasts to #16 (I don’t think he will).
The thing that was perhaps most pleasing about the O-line drills were the number of players who really stood out and could be available later on. This was particularly true at center. I recently wrote about the position, noting a trend that is probably important:
Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff had Parker Brailsford at Washington last season and he’s 6-2 and approximately 280lbs. In 2022, Corey Luciano (6-3, 307lbs) started at center for UW. The Seahawks have used Evan Brown (6-2, 302lbs) and Austin Blythe (6-2, 298lbs). In Baltimore, Tyler Linderbaum has started the last two years and he’s 6-2 and 296lbs.
Brown, Blythe, Luciano and Linderbaum all ran excellent short shuttles and you’d expect the same of Brailsford.
Whether it’s John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Grubb or Huff — they’ve all worked for a team with a center carrying a certain profile.
If the Seahawks are looking for very athletic, undersized centers with either explosive testing results and/or great agility testing, we learnt today that this class has some good options.
Tanor Bortolini was superb during drills, exploding off the snap and looking quick and decisive during pulling drills. He excelled in every drill and put on a testing masterclass. He ran the fastest short shuttle (4.28) and three cone (7.16), jumped a 32.5 inch vertical and a 9-4 broad and even ran a 4.94 forty. He’s 6-4 and 303lbs and based on what he showed today, he’s a fantastic developmental center.
Dylan McMahon and Beaux Limmer also had excellent workouts. McMahon in particular fits the bill at 6-3, 299lbs with explosive athleticism (33 inch vertical, 9-7 broad) and solid agility testing (4.45 short shuttle).
A lot of Seahawks fans want the team to invest in Jackson Powers-Johnson, the biggest name center in the class. However, he’s 328lbs and looks every bit of it. He was bulky and sluggish during drills today, didn’t run a forty and didn’t do any agility testing. It’s hard to imagine him in Seattle’s scheme, he skipped Oregon’s Bowl game (something John Schneider railed against last week) and I’m just not sure he’s as good as some people have been suggesting. For me, he’s not a first round pick and the Seahawks would be better off taking a chance on one of the names listed above.
I thought Sedrick Van Pran had a very good workout after a somewhat underwhelming 2023 season. He looked the part and can probably play guard or center.
The great thing about the combine is it also chucks out names you want to go and study. I thought the Michigan duo Trente Jones and Trevor Keegan had excellent performances. I haven’t studied Jones — but he jumped off the screen to me during drills. Keegan, meanwhile, I have watched and saw him as tough, safe and steady. During drills I saw a level of mobility I didn’t expect so a review session is in order. A lot of teams are going to be attracted to tapping into Michigan’s loaded draft class and this pair feel like they could be a couple of legit sleepers. Gottlieb Ayedze also had a very impressive workout and I can’t wait to watch his tape.
Finally — fair play to Zach Frazier. He broke his fibula towards the end of the season yet worked out at the combine. That’s astonishing and speaks to his toughness and desire to compete. He clearly wasn’t 100% but was out there anyway, running through drills. He’s the toughest center I watched on film and he loves to get after defenders. Teams will like him a lot — and he fits Seattle’s apparent size preferences.
It’s pretty clear the Seahawks will have opportunities, not just at #16, to add talented offensive linemen in April. While a lot of people tend to fetishise the drafting of O-liners early — it’s worth remembering that most of the top lines in the league generally include quality players found outside of the first frame. This class can help you build a good O-line — but it doesn’t have to be with the #16 pick.
What happens next for the Seahawks?
I’ve got a hunch that something’s brewing. Or at least, that John Schneider is trying to get something brewing.
A year ago Schneider said immediately after the 2023 draft that getting an extra third round pick for 2024 was critical. At the time, I remember thinking it’s because they wanted the ammunition to go and get a quarterback if they needed to trade up. Chucking a second rounder away in the Leonard Williams trade changed my thought process slightly but I’ve since squared the circle in my mind.
I think after the Cleveland win they saw an opportunity. The 49ers were on a three-game losing streak, the Seahawks were first in the NFC West. I think they thought they could contend in a wide-open NFC and they simply whiffed in their evaluation of both their own team, the 49ers and the opportunity. That has now been brutally exposed and they might’ve just wasted a pick on a 10 game rental.
However, if the intention a year ago was ‘we see quarterbacks in this class we might be prepared to trade up for’ — they might’ve since returned to that thought. Yes, a deal is now harder to strike. I’m not sure not having your second rounder, though, is a deal breaker.
The Seahawks met with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy at the combine. When asked why on 710 Seattle Sports, Schneider said:
“We have to be ready for anything. We don’t know if a certain trade will go down, or something happens, I mean, you guys have seen players fall in the past and we’ve seen teams be able to jump up and have successful trades moving up into the top-10 to draft guys and, so yeah, you just have to be prepared for everything.”
Nobody really picked up on this, with most of the reaction just resorting to the angle of ‘they’re just doing due-diligence’. That answer is a bit more revealing than I think some people realise. He was specifically asked about why he met with the top quarterbacks and his answer directly referred to ‘teams jumping up into the top-10 successfully’. I’m not sure why you’d meet with Maye or Daniels on the off-chance the Raiders move up to get one of them. My interpretation of that answer was that they’re meeting with those players in case the Seahawks want to consider moving up.
In another answer during that interview, Schneider also mentioned he hadn’t been able to watch much of any of the on-field drills during the first two days of the combine because he was meeting with agents. Then, he said he was looking forward to watching the quarterbacks throw. He also said the final two days at the combine are typically when a lot of trade talks take place between teams.
I just get a really strong sense that the Seahawks might well be considering a bold, aggressive trade up to get a quarterback. I don’t know whether they’ll be able to pull it off. It’d be very expensive. However, I think there’s a little bit of smoke.
Here’s Peter King, writing in January:
“As for teams anxious to deal up for a quarterback, let’s see if Minnesota, at 11, moves aggressively to sign Kirk Cousins (I doubt it). Then it’s Denver at 12, Vegas at 13, Seattle at 16 (I bet Seattle tries to move up) in the derby for young quarterbacks.”
Here’s Jeff Howe, writing this week from the combine:
“J.J. McCarthy represents the start of the second tier of QBs, as teams view a tier-drop from Daniels to here. Still, there’s a chance he goes as high as the fourth pick if a team gets anxious enough to select him and decides to trade up with the Arizona Cardinals, whom league sources view as willing to move down.
It’s conceivable the New York Giants (No. 6), Atlanta Falcons (No. 8), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11), Denver Broncos (No. 12), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13), Seattle Seahawks (No. 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20) could be in play for McCarthy. Even if it’s just two or three of those teams, it makes a trade up the board more likely, and the action on McCarthy could kick-start the draft-night drama.”
Ian Rapoport, when reporting that the Seahawks and other teams had met with Daniels and Maye, added in his tweet:
“So these are the teams potentially in the market for a top QB.”
Now let’s consider some other speculative angles. Schneider mentioned in the 710 interview how teams had successfully traded into the top-10 to draft quarterbacks. This includes the two players we know Schneider really liked — Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Chiefs moved from #27 to #10 to select Mahomes. The Bills traded up from #12 to #7 to select Allen.
Given the success of these two players, especially Mahomes, I have to believe that if Schneider sees a player or players in this draft class that he rates as highly as he did those two, it stands to reason that he would be prepared to aggressively pursue them.
Then there’s the Geno Smith report from Jordan Schulz last week, stating:
The Seahawks have informed Geno Smith he will be on the roster in 2024 under his current contract. I’m told Smith has received commitment from Seattle’s front office.
I thought it curious of the timing of this, given the combine had already started. It’s also interesting that no other reporter has been able to follow it up — including some who are well connected to the Seahawks front office.
It’s possible they checked on the trade market and there wasn’t one for Smith, thus this news emerged. However, here’s another thought. What if they’ve been non-committal because their intention is to trade up for a quarterback? You keep Geno Smith on the roster so you retain an ideal bridge to the future, especially as you look to install a brand new offense in 2024. Then, in 2025, the new guy takes over. Just as Mahomes did in Kansas City.
It would especially make sense if the apple of their eye was a younger player such as Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy.
It also stands to reason that you’d be non-committal if you were open to letting the rookie compete for the starting job, even if your expectation is that Smith remains the starter this year.
I appreciate this is a speculative theory. However, I truly believe two things:
1. John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. It’s why he keeps mentioning only drafting two in 14 years.
2. I don’t believe he will just muddle along with soon-to-be 34-year-old Geno Smith, waiting for the ideal QB to fall into his lap whenever that will be, kicking the can down the road. He’ll know as well as anyone that there are three ways to land a top quarterback. You’re either bad enough to pick early, you trade up, or you get lucky and one falls into your lap when they had no business being available.
It’s very possible he has every intention to trade up and just can’t make it happen. Going from #16 to #3 or #4 will be incredibly difficult and expensive. He’d have to sacrifice an enormous draft haul and even then — he could still be outbid by the Giants, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders or someone else.
However — unless he intends to pick earlier than #16 in the future (I doubt that’s the plan), it’ll only get more expensive the later they pick.
You all know my thoughts on this quarterback class by now. You will know I haven’t been enamoured with Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy. Schneider might be. Maye, physically and creatively, feels very much like a Schneider quarterback. In terms of personality and character, he fits like a glove.
Then there’s McCarthy, a player who Mike Macdonald and Jay Harbaugh will know all about and I suspect, given Jim Harbaugh announced he should be the #1 pick recently, they’ll have strong feelings about him.
Listen to this segment of an interview I did with Scot McCloughan a year ago. For those who aren’t aware, McCloughan used to work for the Seahawks. Ron Wolf, as with Schneider, was his mentor. He’s considered one of the best talent evaluators in the business. I asked McCloughan what he looks for in a quarterback:
Listen to Scot McCloughan on quarterbacks in the clip below, then check out the full interview in the link. So much great info & insight from one of the best talent evaluators in the business. A must listen whoever you follow #NFLDraft #Seahawks
👉 https://t.co/E6w7bvWmbm pic.twitter.com/AfckzgzLlr
— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 18, 2023
When I listen to that, I think of McCarthy based on what I wrote about him yesterday.
You saw that Jeff Howe article I linked to earlier. The Seahawks were mentioned with McCarthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks moved up to #3 or #4, knowing they could get one of Maye or McCarthy, before giving them a year behind Geno Smith this season.
I’m not predicting it. I’m just saying it wouldn’t surprise me.
Until the Seahawks have a long term answer at quarterback, it will be the #1 priority every off-season. Only once you’ve eliminated the possibility of addressing that problem in a given off-season, should you consider anything else.
It could be that Schneider will look at trading up and might settle for Michael Penix Jr instead. That might even be the more sensible plan. Perhaps they’d have to trade up for Penix Jr? Jeff Howe’s article suggests not, but who knows? I do think, though, that Seattle’s GM has his eye on this quarterback class. If he can’t make things happen, then I think it’s very plausible they’ll just take one of the very interesting offensive linemen at #16, such as Troy Fautanu, Amarius Mims or Taliese Fuagu, or someone like Chop Robinson or Jared Verse.
A lot of people say to me the Seahawks aren’t ready to trade up for a quarterback. You’ll never be 100% ready. You’ll never have a flawless roster and the ideal QB to move up for. They’ve spent the last two drafts pumping up their roster thanks to the Russell Wilson trade. Eventually, you have to make your move. You bring in a quarterback who can elevate your team so you can cover flaws. You fix holes in free agency and the draft and you manage things. All of the current top contenders do this.
Even the 49ers, currently starting a late seventh rounder at quarterback, traded heaven and earth to get into the top-three in 2021. They knew eventually they’d have to do something, that inaction wasn’t an option. The Trey Lance trade also highlights the risk involved. That’s why you need a good talent evaluator in charge, with the conviction to make the right move at the right time.
Personally, I trust Schneider if he decides to move up.
For anyone who says the roster isn’t ready for this kind of aggressive approach, I’d challenge them to consider the following. You’ve invested a top-10 pick at left tackle. You’ve drafted and paid a receiver with top-tier potential. You just drafted another highly rated receiver with a top-20 pick and you also used two other high picks on talented running backs. They might pay to keep Leonard Williams to match with a top-five pick at cornerback, two recent second round picks at pass rusher plus Uchenna Nwosu.
The cupboard isn’t bare. Their biggest needs are basically interior O-line, safety and linebacker. None are premium positions. Safety and linebacker are positions where your new Head Coach has elevated the performance of players in Baltimore. Your new offensive staff could be challenged to turn Anthony Bradford and Olu Oluwatimi into quality players. As we’ve been noting over the last few days, there are good players in this class to be had in the middle/later rounds at safety and interior O-line. Linebacker’s a black hole — but you might’ve had to go the veteran route there anyway.
The Seahawks might not have a 49ers level roster but who does? This isn’t a ground zero rebuild situation. They’ve been building for two years already. Now they have a staff who might be able to actually get something out of this team.
Back to the quarterbacks, I think a ‘top-four’ are emerging within the league, rightly or wrongly. I think Schneider will look at the dynamic, uber-playmaker Jayden Daniels and see similarities to a quarterback in Baltimore. Mike Macdonald’s defense sure benefitted from the scoreboard pressure Lamar Jackson created. In Drake Maye, I think he’ll see his type of gunslinger — with the character to match. In J.J. McCarthy, he may well see a winner who excels on third downs and has the ‘alpha’ vibe Scot McCloughan talked about. Plus, his Head Coach and Special Teams coordinator have excellent intel on him.
Exhaust attempts to trade up for a quarterback, assess willingness to turn to the likes of Michael Penix Jr, or settle on taking the best O-liner or pass rusher at #16? I think that could well be the thought process.
Note — I will produce TEF results for the O-line class once they’ve done the bench press tomorrow
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I know you consider it unlikely he lasts. But I pray that Jayden Daniels slips a little. He is the only one I would want us to trade up for.
The athletic posted an article today titled “Seahawks want to take a QB in the draft. Is Michael Penix Jr. the answer?”. I don’t have an Athletic account. Are there any takeaways in this article?
https://theathletic.com/5312696/2024/03/04/seahawks-nfl-draft-michael-penix-jr-quarterback/
Just some Schneider quotes from his combine press conference saying he wants to draft QB’s etc and then some talk about Penix Jr because he played with Grubb and might be a fit for Seattle
Andy – I agree. Daniels’ running ability would give the 49ers defense challenges which IMHO would open up other opportunities for the Seahawks offense.
However much I would like the Seahawks to move up in the draft, I think the odds are stacked against it. I really thought last year that they would do it to grab Richardson, but it didn’t happen. This does not mean it won’t this year, but I still think it unlikely.
I think what is more likely is that JS has his eyes on someone who has some blemishes that make him damaged goods in the eyes of others — someone who has a history of injuries, or someone who earlier in his career made some choices that were not the best. I think back to JS selecting Wilson who many others thought was too short to make it. I think trying to “read the tea leaves” of who the Seahawks have met with and then assuming that their search ends there was dispelled last year when JS and PC took their tour to visit prospective QBs and then ended up not selecting any QB. So, I think it more likely that the Seahawks will draft a QB that is not a consensus choice, but someone they have familiarity with and someone who they see as having skills that are overlooked or undervalued by others.
I’m pretty over the hand wringing about building the roster up first.
From 2-3 year deals to rookies on four year contracts with qbs taking 1-3 years to figure out if they are legit it’s a near impossible task to have the roster perfect at every position.
Have the niners been better than the whole league because they drafted what feels like a dozen dlinemen early first? No. It’s helped but ultimately didn’t do it for them.
I’m repeating myself here but tough:
From the day patrick mahomes was drafted til his first season as a starter 14 starters in offense and defense were switched. The following year when the chiefs win the superbowl they switched starters 11 more times.
They also had very few draft picks because the mahomes and other trades.
We should have a lot more information about their intentions by this time next week.
Some cuts should be processed, we’ll know of Leonard Williams is skipping free agency and re-signing.
With new coaches including OLine coach, we don’t know what they are looking in tackles, guard or center. So it will interesting to see how they draft this year.
Thank you for excellent coverage
Well, we can look at what type of centre the Huskies used for the last two years, what type of center the Ravens drafted in round one and what type of centre the Seahawks used the last two years — and see that they’re all the same
So it’d be pretty out there if they suddenly decide to go against that
Only new coaches though, the same GM and scouting department.
“they might’ve just wasted a pick on a 10 game rental.”
That is not a might. It could have been worded that they definately wasted a 2nd round pick. Compared to the other deadline trades it seemed an overpay as well. Just like last year, a few wins cost them big draft capital in every round. Without Pete trying to save his job the Seahawks would have been much better off today.
If they keep Leonard Williams and having him for 10 games enabled a connection to form that made him want to stay, it won’t be wasted. I don’t think they should’ve done the trade at all. But if being here last season convinced him to stick around, and they really believe in his ability, then they simply invested in him — whether we agree with it or not
Ironically, having him here may have hampered our ability, rather than helped it.
From all accounts Pete lost the locker room, and it’s not unreasonable to believe that morale wasn’t great among the players last year.
Of course, the *entire* coaching staff is different now, compared to last year… so whatever happened before isn’t really relevant to what Williams thinks it’ll be like in Seattle going forward (for better or worse).
I suppose if he loves the city and the facilities, that could help.
Though, again, there is no reason to think his experience here was positive, rather than negative.
I hope he wants to be here, and we can sign him, though.
Even though he’ll likely be past his peak by the time we are truly ready to compete. He will definitely fill an important hole/need for the next couple of years.
If he doesn’t sign, it’s yet another gaping hole on the roster that we have limited resources to fill.
I really hope they manage an extension. He seems like the kind of guy Macdonald could do wonders with. Macdonald is another reason i would love to see us get Chop. Matchup nightmare for offenses
I have to say I too lean towards the wasted pick side of things.
Even if he resigns we will be paying big money for a third contract player who has a ton of very tough in the trenches miles on him – even though he only turns 30 this June he will be entering his 12th nfl season already.
Add in the lost value of a much cheaper rookie 2nd round contract and the ability to resign that player to their 2nd contract vs an older guy with a bunch of wear who will probably be declining sooner than later and does’nt bring future ‘prime age’ 2nd contract value – to me it’s already a loss. Sure it will be a little less if he resigns but only so much.
Whether it came about through the desperation of seeing how bad their d-line truly was or the grossly misguided hope that they could win the nfc west and make a real run at a Super Bowl – either way they either completely or largely wasted a 2nd round pick imo.
Correction. He will be enetering his 11th year in the nfl – his split year last year threw me off.
I just see it as best case scenario we get about a total of 3 years of very good to good play out of him(including half year last year so like 2 1/2 more upcoming say) and then we either keep him late in his contract while he’s declining on a huge salary or dead cap cut him. So around 3 years of good production causes us money issues to sign and also keep late in the contract or let go all for a 2nd round pick. Oh and we get to hope he does’nt truly slow down or start to get injured.
Well, some DT’s play longer than that. And I think four years of quality DT play, given we’ve had a decade without it, would be very welcome
Still wrong. His rookie year was 2015. 2015-2023 is 9 seasons. This will be 10.
Potentially controversial opinion, but as much as I prefer not trading up at all, I prefer a trade up for McCarthy to sticking and picking Penix at 16. I think McCarthy is better suited to success in the NFL. He extends plays, and extends drives. It may not look pretty or traditional. But it works. In part because he’s a pretty agile athlete, and in part because he’s an alpha dog, but in a big brother got your back sort of way.
Honestly though this draft is so freaking deep from 30-90 that I think the better long term play is to acquire picks to spend in that range and set the roster up with young, cheap, hungry talent.
BTW, yeoman’s work on the Combine coverage Rob. Another excellent, benchmark setting season.
Tell me if I’m off but doesn’t McCarthy have a lot of Russell Wilson in him when Russ was coming out?
Wilson probably had a better arm. Tons of questions though about how he would QB in a traditional way. He was effective and clutch. He extended plays.
One big difference is that Russell Wilson was a very public Christian and JJ McCarthy very publicly meditates before games.
Meditation originates from Eastern Religions like Budhism, and while it has found general acceptance in some circles, it is typically frowned upon by devout Christian like the GM of the Seahawks. Maybe he is more open minded about things like that. Yoga has similar origins and it has become generally accepted in sports.
To be honest, I’m willing to bet that John Schneider couldn’t care less that McCarthy meditates
McCarthy is an underwhelming and underperforming QB so hopefully those factors factor more into the choice
Err, he’s just won the National Championship. I’m not sure underperforming is a sleight you can put on JJ McCarthy.
The most invites to the combine ever.
Looking increasingly likely as the most drafted players from one college in a single draft.
This isn’t anything like Cam Newton who won a championship and was the best player on the field doing it.
JJ threw for 140 yards going 10/18 and 0 tds. Hell of a performance there… Michigan’s rushing attack won them the game with over 300 yards and 4 tds; more evidence that JJ is a game manager.
In his college career JJ managed 3 games, 2 coming against unranked opponents, where he threw for over 300 yards. He’s not a 1st round pick imo, but it only takes one team and I hope that it’s not Seattle.
Hopefully the reports are correct. More the benefit for us.
Hopefully it’s Denver. Will love to watch Payton fail again with his own guy this time.
I honestly lament Rob brought this tidbit up about Ewers.
I hope that John is not building the team based on any of that.
DJ, I think you are wrong about the whole meditation thing and Christianity. The Gnostic philosophers of Egypt had a wide-ranging influence on all early religions from North Africa to Asia. Scrolls found in Buddhist temples in Tibet have described animals only found in North Africa.
At least, that is the claim of the Rosicrucians.
And also, Russell Wilson has been very public about his yoga practice.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/russell-wilson-and-alex-rodriguez-are-opening-a-line-of-yoga-studios-in-washington-state/
Even before John Schneider was around, the offensive line coaches were having their players do hot yoga to prevent injuries.
Where did you come up with this Dj?
Not really.
Wilson played in a pro system and put up tds with a good not great team. Go watch Wisconsin highlights. He’s looks like a real qb that is short.
Can mccarthy create? Is he guard railed or is it really that they didn’t need him?
3rd down numbers are fantastic. Can not take that away from him.
Eh…it’s not a perfect comparison.
But we’ll see.
No, not at all. The only knock on Russ was his size. He could make each throw, extend plays, carry the team, be a focal point of the offense, be a difference making player. It was easy to see him translate. And he had a fantastic arm.
That’s not McCarthy. He’s…efficient on third downs and can scramble. He isn’t going to elevate players, isn’t going to stretch the field. He isn’t a blue chip player. The the exact opposite of the player that we have dreamed about getting. He is a game manager.
One guy changed what we think of when drafting qb’s, the other was put in game situations where all he had to do was not screw up.
Yet…what was Wilson in his early years??
Sure. If your premise is he sits a year and then boom he’s starting possibly. However the 2012 roster and the 2024 roster are pretty different. One had a good oline, an all time tone setter runningback, and a soon to be all world defense.
A playmaker. A guy that could get the ball down the field in one throw. A guy that still elevated the offense made it better. You could see him being elite, blue chip player. Everything about his game was translatable.
You can squint all that you want, that isn’t JJ McCarthy. He doesn’t have the arm. He was a safe choice at Michigan. They won games without him doing anything. The guy is going to get drafted high because he interviewed well. He still has to do the job and him doing the job, per his tape, his career, and his skill set, is him just managing.
If they draft him, then we still don’t have the kind of qb that you need to win a Super Bowl. So once again, same problem we are trying to deal with, only we have now wasted more time and a lot more resources.
They were night and day differences as draftable prospects.
All fair points.
I get your points/what you’re going for.
This is the issue with this year’s class: it’s so…volatile? One team could covet a guy and throw the whole thing out of whack, or there could be 3 players that enough teams are sold on to start a giant bidding war.
My problem with the class is that it seems to be all high ceiling/low floor. None of the guys are considered safe picks. I feel like we’ll have our fingers crossed for quite a while with whoever we do ultimately take.
Thank you
I am now fully of heavy cold and feel like I need to go to bed and not wake up until 3pm tomorrow 😂
I’d rather stick with Lock than trade up for McCarthy. Or even take him at 16.
Geno is the starting QB… “until he isn’t”.
This, of course, does not contradict the statement that he has “commitment” from the Seahawks that he will be on the roster.
I totally agree that drafting a QB and letting him compete with Geno makes sense in light of every weird thing that JS has said this off-season.
Whether trading up for a QB is the right move… that’s questionable.
If we do it, I hope that it’s because JS feels as strongly about the guy as he apparently did for Mahomes and/or Allen, and not just because he is “itching” to draft one.
Everybody is considering it automatic that Caleb Williams goes first to the Bears. I wonder if the Bears are also convinced. The top four picks belong to teams that have had at least some regret on recent first round QBs. Could Chicago like somebody else more and drop down a bit? The consensus seems strong enough that Caleb still goes first, but maybe the Bears like JJ or even Penix.
Is Fields failing for reasons that point to another QB being preferred over Williams? Washington had RGIII until they didn’t, and then they had Cousins. How will that influence who they want to pick? Does Mac Jones change how the Patriots look at these QBs? Does the leadership qualities shown by Kyler Murray impact who the Cardinals want?
I have said it before. This QB class is facinating and the unreal coverage provided by Rob and CHA makes it that much more interesting for fans like me who love to consider these things and speculate on first the outcome and then the outfall.
If only we could make a FrankenQB with the arm of Penix, the 3rd down savy of JJ, the legs of Daniels and the head of somebody I do not know since all he had was a head . Is the QB closest to that Caleb Williams?
Williams will be the pick. He’s too good to pass up
Honest question for you Rob.
Seattle is on the clock with all QBs not named Williams or Daniels on the board and the pick will be a QB. Who do YOU choose for Seattle?
He has already said that Penix is QB3 on his board.
I am totally fine if JS wants to trade up for one of these Quarterbacks. I am really hoping that they follow the “agressive” route that CHA ha written about. Hopefully, I read about a bunch of mediocre and “Dead Weight” Players being cut from the roster. Getting rid of Pete’s guys like Adams, Diggs, Dissly, Eskridge, and Bellore, who just don’t help this team to win games, is the first start in building a playoff winning roster.
I don’t for a minute believe that JS has designs on overseeing what amounts to the Matt Schaub Era of Seahawk football (AKA “Perpetual Meh”), which is where we sit today. He’s got to trade up – either this year or next at an absurd cost – and come away with the guy who will take this team to the Super Bowl. No pressure.
The JJ McCarthy scenario may not be as farfetched as some might hope. JS seems to love Michigan guys, having taken 5 since 2015. McCarthy is an alpha dog with good hair. Maybe that’s enough. Maybe it’s Penix in R2. Maybe it’s any of the guys discussed here for the past few months. However it works out, I hope that they get someone who is a f-ing difference-maker. Enough with the Measurables Guys who help feed the Perpetual Meh.
Many thanks, Rob & Robbie, for your incredible work this weekend.
“McCarthy is an alpha dog with good hair”
Perfect.
“McCarthy is an alpha dog with great hair.”
Lol. Wow I’m half qualified to be a draftable athlete, if these are the criteria!
Aqua Net or Soul Glo?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5Meqlk4gjI
https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1764494042576953709?s=19
Looks like the Mims shuttle time was an error
I’ve edited the piece to include this
Excellent post, Rob and I’m looking forward to the TEF scores coming soon.
Thanks for the effort this draft season. It’s appreciated.
IF you are a Seahawk fan you have to check this video out.
WHY THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS COULD BE TERRIFYING NEXT YEAR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KmBw059N40
Really appreciate all your hard work on the combine these past four days Rob. Enjoyed reading about all the prospects in the draft, your thoughts on them and on what the Seahawks might be looking for in the draft.
I just hope JS is not considering J.J. McCarthy, If they draft a QB I hope it’s someone that can elevate the team and has the ability to take over games. I just don’t see McCarthy as that guy.
Al – I think you can make an argument for picking McCarthy if you think that you can make huge improvements in the Seahawks defense and doing so will be easier than making improvements in the offense. That way, McCarthy’s role in the offense would be to avoid mistakes, run the clock, get the ball to mid-field on most possessions, etc. I don’t like this kind of football, but others seem to.
what if you could get a 6’3 228lb QB that runs in the 4.4 range but on Sundays is one of the fastest QB’s in the NFL, turning 25 tomorrow, has 3 year QBR rating of 85, 60% comp rate despite playing in one of the worst environments for a passer, and can be had for a 3rd round pick, maybe a 5th?
Fields was a very good college qb.
I actually think a very specific system could work for him. I just wouldn’t want to trade for him and have to pay for him almost immediately without knowing if he’s a long term answer. Chicago got that shot. The next team is paying him on a hope.
I’d say that’s Justin Fields ands he’s not a good QB. A QB rating of 85 in today’s NFL is not a good player that you should be trading for.
That sounds interesting if Fields was a rookie on a rookie salary. Doesn’t sound appealing if you have to pay Fields $40-$45 million a year.
This.
Simply not worth the investment in draft capital. Then you have to turn around and pay him?
Rob, if the WR class this year is epically deep – does it make sense to try and trade DK Metcalf if you can get say a 1st and 2nd round pick?
That would let you draft a much cheaper, but still very good 2nd round WR to replace him, and then have an extra 1st round pick that you can use as ammo to draft a QB, or trade down and get multiple 2nd round picks at WR, OL, QB, or whatever.
And it seems like a good plan if you’re drafting a QB, to start with rookie WRs that can grow and meld with the rookie QB over the next couple of years?
I know Spotrac says Metcalf has a $36 million dead cap charge, but I think that’s because he has a bunch of guaranteed salary. If he was traded, the new team would take on that guaranteed salary, so I think the dead cap charge to the Seahawks if they trade him is much lower. And if you trade Metcalf, you free up least $22 million in salary for the 2025 season.
Read the first part of your post.
If the class is deep and it is….why would anyone give us a pick for DK when they can get one of the nearly 20 interesting wr’s?
Even if it makes sense how do you convince a team to do that trade?
Yeah, I get that. And maybe you’re right no one would trade a 1st and 2nd rounder because of that.
But as good as this WR class is, maybe another team might think that Seattle has criminally underused DK Metcalf given his height, speed, strength and leaping ability and think they can turn him into one of the best WRs ever. (Or maybe John Schneider thinks Ryan Grubb can do it).
So yeah, maybe no will do that trade, but maybe someone will. The question is – if someone is willing, do you take it?
I’ve run this around a ton. Mostly I lean no. 1 and 2? Maybe just maybe.
And who knows, if Seattle drafts Penix Jr., maybe Schneider and Grubb think they can recreate the UW magic with Metcalf where Penix chucked the ball as far as he can and Odunze would outrun/outleap the defender and come down with it 50% of the time. Metcalf probably a better version of Odunze (although Odunze seems to have much better hands than Metcalf).
Metcalf probably NOT a better version of Odunze. If we could deal Metcalf and replace him with Odunze I would do it in a heartbeat.
I am firmly in the keep DK Netcalf camp. I do not believe that you could get a 1st and a .2nd round pick for him. I do not see a team wrecking their top draft picks just for DK. He is definitely worth a 1st round pick plus more, though. Here is why trading him away doesn’t make sense to me
1. The Wide Receivers are currently one of their strengths. Why turn it into a weakness, DK is the only “special” offensive skill player on this roster, especially because of his speed. The only player that defenses really have to be worried about. If defenses are keying on him, that frees up other players.
2. Tyler Lockett has been a really reluable pass catcher. He is coming off a bit of a down year, and has only 2 years left on his deal. He also will be way overpaid in 2024 with to his diminishing production. He avoids contact like no other WR in the NFL; a pure meaning of a Possession Receiver. I cannot see him playing past 2025. Seahawks still may cut him to free up some cap space
3. JSN was fine during his rookie season. Did we really see anything that says he could take over WR1 on 2024?
4. Bobo is a nice story and will hopefully be a solid WR4 in 2024.
5. I get that some might argue that Harrison JR or Odunze could become elite WR1 immediately, and they would be a lot cheaper. They will probably go within first 6 picks, and I do not believe that DK alone is going to net that high if a draft pick
No player on this team outside of draft picks of the last 2 years should be safe from a trade. ESPECIALLY after seeing ALL of the fantastic WR’s in this class.
I said it before, this team shpould not marry itself to previous choices. Divorces happen, and if Metcalf is our only chip on the table I say push it in.
It’s a lot more complex than that though isn’t it
It’d beyond obscene to try and trade Metcalf this year, with a loaded draft class at receiver. You wouldn’t get close to a good deal. The only reason to trade him would be to get a massive haul. That isn’t happening
And then what? Here you go Ryan Grubb… here’s… Jaxon Smith-Njigba, maybe an ageing Tyler Lockett and Jake Bobo. Good luck putting a great offense together
It’d make no sense what so ever to part with someone with Metcalf’s talent for cents on the dollar
I don’t think anyone is suggesting to trade Metcalf for cents on the dollar. If you can’t get a 1st and a 2nd (or maybe 3rd instead of a 2nd), then yeah, shut down the idea. But I’m very curious what Metcalf would fetch.
Rob, you thought Schneider might be plotting something big. Given that idea, I would say everything is on the table for exploring – and Metcalf is the most valuable asset (besides Witherspoon), so I’d give it at least a 15% chance Metcalf will get traded this offseason.
This is not plotting something big though. This is trading away one of the few legit players they have and for what? You’re suggesting a Frank Clark haul. How did that work out?
The point is you’re unlikely to get that because of the amazing receiver class. Nobody is giving you a first and a second when they can use a R1 or R2 on a player that is a lot cheaper in an outstanding WR draft. Meanwhile, you obliterate your own arsenal
Too much time has been spent on this idea IMO. Hugh Millen literally keeps saying on KJR he’s spoken to John and he is desperate for an offense that turns DK into a legit star. They want to go through him. Not trade him away
When I talk about a big move, I mean to improve the team, not make it significantly worse
If you think that getting a 1st and a 2nd for Metcalf is most likely fantasy, then I’ll trust your expertise on that.
But as far as the Frank Clark haul – I think over 50% of knowledgeable fans were ecstatic with the haul at the time. If the Clark trade didn’t work out, I’d call that small sample size volatility (sample size of 1). I’d still make the Clark trade over and over in the multiverse and over the long run it probably would work out better. (But maybe not if Pete was pulling the strings on bad decisions).
And I did mention in other posts above that I thought it was a possibility that maybe Schneider and Grubb think they can “unlock” Metcalf themselves and make him one of the best WRs ever – which his measurable traits imply that he should be in the running for.
50% of fans might’ve been ecstatic about it but here’s the reality — it cratered Seattle’s pass rush for years, they never recovered and it blew all of the reasonable built momentum during the 2018 reset. That should be a lesson. Because if you trade Metcalf you will crater the one big positive about this team — weapons. And for what exactly? To trade one of your best players in literally the worst year to try and trade a receiver?
Let’s move on from this. It isn’t going to happen
I am of the opinion that the overall Seahawks Roster is basically a tear down, and a full rebuild is necessary. There are only two players that I absolutely wouldn’t want to trade ( Metcalf and Witherspoon). I mostly don’t care about the other 51 players.
I definitely have days like this.
Unless you get a true game shifting qb in April that changes tge scope of everything and improved coaching is the difference from this mediocre oline and terrible defense I feel like a rebuild like 2010 era is bound to happen.
I can get behind wanting to see how these players perform under a new coaching staff, a little.
I just do not want an organization just trying to eke out 9 or w0 wins every year.
I want to see what a new coaching staff does with the players they have before drastically tearing down the roster. Are they bad players, or was the coaching staff just that bad? I am leaning toward the coaching being bad. I think there are probably quite a few good players on the list besides Spoon and Metcalf.
My struggle, as I start to work out trade up scenarios is that it is the same as last year, but we have less powder…
Chicago, in spite of a couple of fanciful musings is sticking picking at 1.
I saw people saying Washington is exploring trades, but couldn’t find a reliable source stating this. And a trade from 16 to 2 would be painful. On the other hand it would give them the only other QB I grade out as R1. Jayden Daniels is special, special enough I’d be surprised if Chicago didn’t at least kick the tires on him.
New England needs a lot of help, but Harrison is a lot of help, and this team is a front runner for the Quit for Quinn. That said, everyone has a price.
The Cards aren’t trading with us, and likely will be trading with someone looking for that next top QB.
And assume 4 QB go off, leaving Penix, Rattler and Nix..you’ll have a round grade on these players and you don’t want to be the woman grabbing a wedding dress at the trunk sale because you don’t want to leave empty handed.
Part of me just says keep building. Trade down and get me zinter, Frazier, ruke, etc. Any of a bunch players. Chop and someone else. You get it.
But then I think….
When do they do the thing? Next year? It’ll always be expensive to move up from 14-20 to 2-5.
And will teams ever trade down with us.
Plus how many more OLine and DLine guys does the team have to draft before fans are satisfied? The team drafted 2 OLine guys and 2 DLine guys + an Edge last season. At some point you have to develop them better.
The Hawks are in a better spot to trade up than most might think. They have a QB in the chamber and you don’t have to force start a young QB. They have weapons everywhere. You can always find TEs, LBs, and Safeties. A lot of premium positions are taken care of outside of QBs. They may not have a lot of stars but how many true stars did the Ravens have on offense and defense? Jackson? Hamilton?
The OLine is young in 4/5 spots. Jury is out on pretty much all of them but again…you have to develop them. It’s not like UW was full of 4 and 5 star recruits. Huff and Grubbs developed them. Can they develop our young guys? I’m excited to see if they can.
By your logic we should trade up for Pratt or Slovis if there is a run and we can’t get in on it, rather than stick and pick Chop or the like.
The problem with a singular focus on QB (or any position) is that is how you get Colliers. You start squinting and wishing you can see what is there, versus what is actually there.
The more I see of McCarthy, the more certain I am he is fools gold. Rattler looked good, but looks like a 3rd round prospect with starter upside. Penix looks really good, but he is a R2 at best.
That’s not what I said…
I said the team is in a good position to trade up. I never said for anyone.
How did you read what he said and come to that conclusion?
Maybe it was me reading between the lines and taking what I was reading there a bit far.
The chorus worrying about 7 QBs in the top 15 and people selling themselves on prospects may be giving me some bias problems.
My point was that team is actually in a solid spot to trade up if they want. A lot of the premium positions are there. They may not have stars but they have players.
I’m actually quite open to what the team does. I do agree that we shouldn’t be closed minded but I do think we need to be ready for what the team does.
My point is that some team (2023 Bears) might have been willing to move.
Here only the Patriots have shown a willingness to move, and that would net you your QB3.
My problem is that QB3 in this class is a warty prospect in my book (for me that is Penix).
I think Arizona will be open to moving down too
With us? I’m thinking not for all the same reasons we articulated last cycle.
I wouldn’t totally rule it out
I live in the New England area, so I pay attention to the Patriots and what’s happening with that team. Apparently, they met with the top QB prospects at the combine except for Michael Penix. Naturally, the local reporters covering the team are now speculating whether Penix is the QB that the Patriots are targeting.
If those speculations turn out to be correct, then it is possible that (1) the Patriots select Penix at #3 and either Maye or Daniel will drop out of top 3, or (2) the Patriots are willing to trade down to a spot where Penix is still available.
A couple thoughts:
I can’t see the Cardinals trading the #4 pick in division with the Seahawks.
I don’t think the Seahawks will be interested in McCarthy’s lesser arm. If they move up, I see them trading with the Pats for Daniels or Maye.
I think Harbaugh’s talking up McCarthy because he wants him to be picked at #4 so the Chargers can have the first non-QB pick at #5 or for someone to reach for McCarthy so another (more valuable) QB is available at #5 and he can get a haul for the pick.
I expect Denver to make a play for the #1 pick to get Williams as a “generational player”.
I tend to agree with the Cardinals but everything has a price so you never know.
Great point with Harbaugh possibly trying to work things in his favor, could totally see those scenarios.
As for Denver I don’t see that one though – this is a team that just lost two drafts worth of 1st and 2nd round picks, it would be hard to see them give up another giant haul to move up to number 1, their roster would be totally gutted of talent within a couple of years and it wouldn’t matter if they had grabbed the best QB in years if it takes them a good 5-6 plus years after they pay the iron(gold) price in lost drafts yet again to put a good enough roster together to actually win.
Kam Kinchens, Maason Smith, Leonard Taylor — three players who were constantly mocked in R1 during the college season and had no business being there. Now consensus has switched post combine. Of course if you read this blog, you knew…
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lm6IWOIbpYO4nGuVnflLh6wZPVvB9DdzAXSGKjk8kTk/edit?usp=sharing
Combine results for anyone interested
Never been this on board with a tradeback and o-line pick with their first as i am right now. I’ll almost be surprised if they don’t trade back this year atleast once. the trenches value in the early rounds seems just to great.
Trade back for who though?
The top O-liners will be gone by pick #20
Over reacting mock Monday I see several sites that still have Mims, fautanu, latham in the 20’s.
I have to say I’d be questioning the resource allocation a bit if they ended up taking another DE with their first draft pick. Taylor, Mafe, Hall, and others later in the draft over the past 4 years and a good starter in Nwosu thru free agency.
I get they are important to have but it seems like we have invested quite a lot there recently and I’d prefer they go a different direction with our first pick and work on developing Hall and maybe try to get another player to create some more pass rush up the middle via a DT or a guard that would instantly provide a real upgrade to the o-line.
That depends on the new HC, though. If Schneider asks him if he can utilize what he has in his scheme, then they will bypass pass rushers. But, if they are staring at Robinson or Verse and MacDonald is insistent one of them will elevate the team, Schneider would probably be willing to defer to his new HC. They wouldn’t be reaching for those two prospects. It would be a proper investment in BPA.
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-2024-nfl-combine-day-2-insider-notes-nc-state-s-payton-wilson
“Today I received word that Wilson, and another player from the ACC, received the worst medical grades from the group of players that worked out Thursday. A source characterized the grades and reports as “ugly”. The other player mentioned was Braden Fiske of Florida State, another player pointed out for his outstanding combine performance.”
Anything to be read into this?
Sportskeeda has also dropped Darius Robinson all the way down on their boards
Rumors were the Cards
considered Witherspoon at 3 last year/ really liked him. And if the Cards think that the qb’s at available at 4 aren’t that good like Rob mentioned in the vid they might be inclined to deal with the Hawks.Not saying I think the Seahawks should or would trade spoon .Just saying that including him might be the way/only way to outbid all the teams with more capital this draft if Schneider wants a guy up that high.
Unless I’m wrong about the Commanders taking Daniels at #2, I feel like if he’s wanting to make a bold move up, John has his eye on a trade with NE at #3. Maye fits the physical profile he likes as Rob has stated, excellent arm, 6’4″ and 230 lbs. Josh Allen: 6’5″ 235 lbs. and we know he liked Allen coming out. I believe he feels Maye’s issues can be coached out much like a good portion of Allen’s have.
IF there’s a trade up imo it’s for Maye and it’s at #3. Cards won’t trade with Seattle. Plus, staying with Geno for a year in that scenario makes a ton of sense.
Some are connecting the Pats to Baker Mayfield and then trading down for a tackle. As mentioned on the stream, Eliot Wolf and Alonzo Highsmith are from the braintrust that drafted Mayfield in Cleveland. It makes sense. And Wolf is a big trenches guy and can get a haul for trading down
It’s plausible they think that’s a better plan than Maye/McCarthy
Allen had a cannon arm and is a ridiculous athlete. I know we don’t have testing on Maye yet, but I’m struggling to see the similarities.
PFF says his arm strength is “elite”:
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-north-carolina-qb-drake-mayes-scouting-report
I believe Rob has said something similar. He’s not a ridiculous athlete like Allen but nobody else that plays the position is. Allen is a true freak.
He fits what John likes.
Maye has a very good arm. Wouldn’t call it elite though
Fair enough. Just speculation on my part because he fits a lot of what John likes. I trust your assessments of college players a lot cuz you’re correct far, far more often than not. If you don’t rate Maye that highly (you too Lou City), I’m not wild about Seattle drafting him cuz I’m not an evaluator of college prospects. My point is speculative based on what John likes in a QB and Maye fits it. Allen had terrible accuracy issues and for the most part that’s been remedied with good coaching and maturity. My guess if John does move up for Maye is that he feels the same can happen with Drake.
I actually don’t think the throwing issues Allen had coming into the league have been remedied all that much. He threw 18 picks last season and accuracy same as Russ, which is okay, not great. I don’t think accuracy needs to be top 5 or even 10 tho to be successful. Allen still finishes top 5 MVP voting and finds ways to help his team win with clutch play. His size is a problem, he is dangerous running, has arm strength to drill the deep post, and is a clear leader on the team. I take all over check down Charlie’s everyday. I think that is what JS wants in a QB.
maybe it’s buried in one of these threads, but would have ranked Levis above Maye or JJ in this draft?
I’d equate Maye with Bryce Young in arm strength – good enough.
JJ? Mid, very mid.
Unless other QB needy teams in front of Seattle don’t value Maye or JJ as high as Seattle, I can’t imagine him having the resources to match what the other teams will be offering. But, who knows what Schneider will offer for his guy. We are in uncharted territory.
Getting to #3 feels insurmountable, compounded by not having an R2 this year. I brought up a few weeks ago Pats were willing to trade out and told the comp to trade up was too much. I still agree. Two future R1 is nothing if we’re talking 3 SB wins in 5 years, but the bar of trade success gets set pretty high.
Trey Lance cost was lessened slightly by Niners picking 29th last two drafts. That seems like the upside of this trade for the Hawks, with the lower bound not being worse than the Panthers giving up the #1 overall pick this year (lol).
As has been discussed many times here too- trading picks isn’t just about that player selected, but the maneuverability on the board which hawks have done plenty of.
16 might very well turn into Fautanu and Nubian this year. Or last year let’s say Kincaid and Benton. Year before? Linderbaum and Troy Anderson. That’s a huge haul for Maye.
I give JS the benefit of the doubt if he pulls the trigger, but it’s a huge gamble. Broncos have been set back more than their two years of Russ without those picks.
Getting to three? Sure.
Five though? Each spot changes the complexity.
To match what Robs been saying most of the weekend multiple national mocks have Mccarthy top five as of today.
It seems an equal chance as of now that 4 qbs go top five as that does not happen. Teams ask too much, or in Bronco’s case have too little to offer.
If JS wants to get a QB; he should absolutely be willing to include players like: Woolen, Hall, Charbonnet, Bobo, along with picks to make it happen.
Only young untouchables should be Spoon, JSN, Mafe, Cross, Lucas.
Yes totally agree.
The price for moving up would be steep, but so is being stuck in QB purgatory for an undefined period of time.
Your pick can fail, of course. But if you don’t try to shoot for the stars, you won’t discover greatness.
The problem is that those players don’t have trade values that exceed their roster values. What exactly is Jake Bobo adding to a trade? Hall did almost nothing this year. Charbonnet looked decent but RBs have minimal trade value. Woolen will interest teams but whatever we’d get in return for him is nowhere near the value of a dirt cheap player at a premium position with elite potential. None of those players get us anywhere near the multiple first round picks we’d need to give to move into the top 10.
Yep. Again, not saying they replace picks. They are additives to picks to make our offer more competitive.
And I’d contend Charbonnet holds great value. Starting RB, rookie contract, and no need to spend a pick to get him. Great value when you factor that with future/other picks.
The challenge with that Matt is most teams want picks in a massive tradeup package, not players. If they did use the 4 you’d mentioned, their trade value would be very little, and the Seahawks would be best served by declining and just working out more picks to trade.
Agreed. I’m not saying replace picks with these players; I’m saying as an additive considering other teams can offer better picks.
“Yes, you are getting potentially higher picks; but we are ALSO throwing in a good starting CB on a rookie contract.”
Again – it’s not that I think those guys are worth a 2nd rounder, but I also think that’s a way to separate from other teams offering the same number of picks.
Updated the spreadsheet with OL bench press results
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lm6IWOIbpYO4nGuVnflLh6wZPVvB9DdzAXSGKjk8kTk/edit#gid=66666234
Heads up, keep an eye out for a Marshon Lattimore trade.
https://overthecap.com/the-salary-cap-costs-of-trading-marshon-lattimore
Palatypus….is this you writing OTC article?
Nope. I’m just a guy at the Senior Bowl letting the FOX8 New Orleans guys suck power off my power strip for their laptops and cell phones and listening to what they say.
Sean and Andre. Look them up on YouTube.
That would by Andre Ware JUNIOR, as he likes to remind everyone.
Go to the 5:05 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWdPW4_mpUc&t=42s
When you say to keep an eye out, are you suggesting he may be traded to Seattle, or just in general?
More in general.
And maybe Alvin Kamara, but the running back class sucks this year.
Converting his base salary to an option bonus that pro-rates over 5 years (looks like 4 to me), but doesn’t count as dead cap if you trade him?
Is this a team option or a player option?
The mechanics look similar to a base to signing bonus, but that the dead money and obligation travel to the acquiring team. I didn’t know you could move/convert salary like this to take advantage of pro-ration, while also avoiding dead cap.
Cool idea as long as the player is open to it, or they start to include it in contracts like they do for base-signing bonus language that lets them do it w/o player approval.
I think the cost to move from 16 to 3 is prohibitive, unless a significant portion of the compensation value is a current player(s). Although Smith isn’t worth much by himself, he might have had value as part of a package. But if the rumors of Mayfield to NE are correct, that’s not possible anymore, and the cost becomes prohibitive again.
I know Schneider is itching to draft a QB. But mortgaging his GMship on one of Drake Maye or JJ McCarthy to be Josh Allen and not Trey Lance seems unrealistic to me. It seems rash and desperate. And I don’t think Schneider’s either one.
Understood.
Counterpoint: John Schneider’s trade up record is impeccable.
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
Jarran Reed
Michael Dickson
Quinton Jefferson
Should’ve added that if one of those guys falls into range, say around 10, I can see him trading up with the Jets (who also lack a R2 this year) for 16 + 78 + 2025 R1 which is pretty reasonable.
Each of the examples you cite were reasonable cost trades. Reasonable.
Moving to 3 will require multiple R1/R2 picks, decimating our draft capital for the 2 drafts. Unreasonable for me.
For me it’s less about the compensation, and more about JS correctly ID’ing talent and knowing that they won’t last to their pick.
I’m not a pro scout. I’m not really even an amateur one.If they spend BIG to move up for one of those guys, I have to believe it’s because they feel it’s worth it. And I defer to them. What else can I do?
But they’re human too, and we’ve seen disasters like this before. I don’t see blue chip QBs in either Maye or McCarthy. To be fair, I thought Allen was a risky trade up. But it only cost Buffalo a couple of current draft R2 picks. Eminently reasonable.
Surely you have to be at least somewhat concerned about this topic?
Of course. I’m just balancing the discussion.
It would be hard to see a ‘kitchen sink’ trade to get a QB. But I think JS has earned some trust with 1-QB evals, 2-trade up value and 3-overall draft acumen (esp the last 2 drafts).
I might be overestimating the cost to move up.
It might have been more expensive for us to move up from 5 to 2 last year than it would to move up from 16 this year.
This is what I have had my eyes on. The Saints and the Jets.
Michigan QB JJ McCarthy is a strong candidate to be drafted ahead of LSU QB Jayden Daniels, says Benjamin Solak
“It is smoke-screen season, and I very well may be getting hooked by it. But in Indianapolis, I heard significantly more interest and excitement for how high Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy might go relative to how high LSU QB Jayden Daniels might go. My sense is that Daniels is not locked into an early draft slot and that the league has turned its attention elsewhere.
Benjamin Solak also said this about Michael Penix Jr:
“He doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA4ddN28YQw
So… yeah
Of all the criticisms to level at Penix, THAT’S the one he went with. That cannon of an arm is by far his best asset. Makes me wonder exactly how some of these guys have jobs.
I don’t understand how anyone can watch Penix Jr and your takeaway is ‘he doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world’
It’d be like watching 101 Dalmations and going, ‘not enough dogs for me’
To be fair, most situations could use more dogs ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
😂
Fwiw I generally find Solak really informative and entertaining, like one of my favourite nfl media people, but I’m not sure where that take has come from?
I have an idea and will just go with the English version….out his arse.
I like him too…think he’s smart. Bad take on Penix obviously.
If this were what he saw would he change his eval?
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1764778750628229398
KJ Wright announces he is joining San Francisco’s staff as a LB and Quality Control coach.
Really hard to get worked up about this. His air spots weren’t must-listen stuff, and those ugly comments he made soured me on him anyway.
https://youtu.be/m1IWYyIW1iE?si=5kdVyfWnmVAyeUQV
I watched one of his podcasts with that guy Gee. I haven’t watched another.
Same. Co-host was insufferable.
Absolute 🤡
Remember when he was made a “Seahawks Ambassador” whose official future with the franchise was to be determined? Guess that was just narrative PR for the Pete era.
Well…. there’s always Kam and Doug.
Those ugly comments he made were a disgrace, were too readily brushed under the carpet by the team, media and fans and basically the 49ers are welcome to him
👋
That’s Seattle, in a nutshell.
I had lived most of my life in Seattle and wasn’t surprised KJs comments faded away, quickly. People pick weird battles to fight in that city. Say something anti-Semitic and you get a finger wagging. Sell a drink with a plastic straw in it and you are the worst business, ever.
I still love the city, but it can be a chore, at times.
Sounds exactly like the people in the “smug” episode of South park where people in San Francisco all enjoy smelling their own farts lol.
I wasn’t aware of what the ugly comments were and then I googled it. To quote another Seahawk… “Yikes”.
And everyone just forgot about it and moved on
A disgrace
That is wild. When it happened I was going through some stuff personally and wasn’t keeping up on Seahawks stuff as much as I normally do which explains how I missed it, but the fact that there were no repercussions with the Seattle media is disappointing to put it mildly.
Not only no repercussions, he just carried on appearing on 710 and working for the team as if nothing had happened
It was embarrassing
I’ve so let go of the idea of landing a game-changing QB this year – that even a tease of a move up gets me excited. It’s such the big missing piece to feeling like your team is on a path – and as you mention, the hope is likely that we won’t be drafting higher than #16 anytime soon.
I know we’ve got holes, but the strength of the team right now is our skill players on offense, so adding a high-ceiling QB prospect adds so much hope to the overall situation.
Rob – did you ever do a full analysis on Daniels somewhere? Sounds like you’re in on him as a franchise QB type talent?
I know it was speculated above that New England may go for Baker but Mike Evans just signed a 2 year deal with Tampa Bay and my guess is he wasn’t going to do that unless Baker was coming back. But you never know money is money.
I should rephrase that: it was reported above that it had been speculated elsewhere that NE might go after Baker.
#1 in acceleration of all offensive players. #2 in deceleration of all offensive players. Per Zebra metrics at the Senior Bowl.
https://x.com/seniorbowl/status/1764661903064735958?s=20
The genes don’t lie.
That is a helluva unfortunate photo to use.
Not as bad as the million thumbnails I’ve seen of mccarthy looking like he’s standing in a wind tunnel and getting hit from behind by a pick up truck trying to air it out though.
Eisen was gushing about Penix this morning. Talking about how Penix was far and away the best passer in drills. He couldn’t believe how perfect his spiral was. How they wanted to go to commercial because the QBs ran out of receivers to throw at and he told his producer not to go to commercial. Just wait until after the receivers cycle through again so they could watch Penix throw.
In the end he said it was a pleasure to watch him work out.
Eisen is insufferable. Most of what he does is sucking up or hyping up unnecessarily.
I’m not going to listen to anything with McCarthy and him just because him touching anything with Michigan just makes me hear a high pitched noise in my head and then my eye twitches.
You think you hate him. Poor J.J. McCarthy chained up in his cellar with a reverse mousetrap on his helmet.
Hahaha I refrained from adding anything too much with McCarthy so I wasn’t just beating a dead horse. Or overdoing it.
You covered it for me.
I didn’t watch the show. I just saw the small segment appear in a YT search for Seahawks.
He’s a talk show host, not an actual sportscaster. Plain and simple. I just thought it was nice to hear someone actually praise Penix’s ability with the level it deserved.
I have read that Spencer Rattler did something when he was younger that may affect his standing in the NFL draft QB derby. All I see on the web is that he was ruled ineligible in his Sr. year of high school (for some unspecified violation) and some references to his comments that were part of a documentary film that was being shot about him at the time. Can someone fill me in on more details?
As far as I know, there isn’t anything really bad in the past. He was just a spoiled, entitled ass.
And I would say that he has grown out of it and is better for it. And he will be a steal for the Rams when they take him and continue their run of taking it to us for years. Peter and Rob will be able to take victory laps for calling that shot.
Watch his Netflix show. Then read about his time in Oklahoma
Bo Nix reminds me too much of Matt Barkley. I just can’t get past that.
How so?
9ers trade up for Trey Lance would be a similar package for the Seahawks to move up from 16.
the Seahawks carry the 16th vs the 12th 9ers had in 2021 (probably will pay a bit more). Lance was more raw where as the current Daniels and JJ McCarthy you see legitimate big time games
9ers recap
2021 3rd overall got
Dolphins got
2021 13th
2022 first
2022 3rd
2023 1st
i am aware that there are flaws in all the QBs in this draft
If the assessment is over 60 to 70% chance being a franchise QB i think you go for it with the hopes the QB floor is like an Alex Smith type and hope the player drafted puts in the extra work development to be elite.
I would push all in on Daniels and JJ unsure about Maye but the Floor on these 2 is worth the gamble. Maybe New England wants to gamble and do what the Bears did last year hoping Seahawks tank. It would work for both franchises in a game of chicken.
as i am learning about JJ McCarthy’s intangibles, JJ’s intangibles offer a comfortable floor you can win with. Unsure about Super Bowl but given the situation i would gamble now vs later.
if JS doesnt like the price i also trust JS to build the trenches and hope he hits on Rattler or Michael Pratt (dont like his arm strength) but keep taking scratch and win picks to hit
Packers in the past drafted and developed Mark Brunell Ty Detmer Aaron Brooks and Matt Hasselbeck
so i dont mind gambling on drafting QBs if this draft isnt in the top 5 too.
I would be OK trading #16+next two years’ R1 plus next year R3 for Daniels. I wouldn’t do it for other.
But I would be open to move to #7-12 for McCarthy or Maye for #16+’25 R1+’25 R3. If JS evaulates them as value picks there I’d be fine with it.
I’d be also fine with Penix after trade back(s) and pick him in very late R1 or R2. I wouldn’t mind picking Rattler in R2 either.
But if they wanna skip this class (doesn’t rate most QBs as top10 or Nix/Penix/Rattler as higher than R3) and trade back, pick up 4-5 picks in first 3 rounds, getting DL, OL, S, LB, WR maybe then I’m totally fine with that too. In this case I hope they let Lock maybe play more. He’s young(er than Geno) and I’d be curious what he can do with Grubbs
I’m a little hesitant that the main talking points on mcccarthy have appeared to have shifted to his vibes.
I get the importance to some degree.
Every qb has different ways to go about it. Manning and Brady always seemed like actual jerks to play with. Stafford always appears like an affable friend but is a pretty fiery competitor. Penix seems like a great dude. Nix is more controlled.
One thing rumbling around my head with mccarthy and what John has said is what does he do if things aren’t working? There’s nothing to be understood in that department. Penix, nix, rattler all had to carry on.
Mccarthy was a good piece in a great team. Asked to do very little.
So would you say he’s like Brock Purdy with a little more athleticism? That’s kind of how I see McCarthy.
Out of all the prospects, Jer’Zhan Newton seems like the type of player the Seahawks have historically drafted. I don’t think another DL in this years class has the same tape that Newton has. Schneider puts the most value on film, and Newton has wrecked plays consistently each game. Want to dominate the line of scrimmage? Start with Newton at 16 if he lasts.
Not sure about this. They haven’t typically drafted short armed interior defensive linemen early in any of their previous drafts. And there are no testing numbers on a player where testing numbers are key because of his lack of size. And he’s currently injured
The big thing I am struggling to reconcile with this theoretical approach of trading up is, why have they been so adamant about talking up Drew Lock? If they did commit to Geno (side eye) then what is the plan with Drew if a QB falls into their laps?
I think after 14 drafts, JS realizes that things can go in a number of unexpected ways on the big night. 4 QB could go in the top 5 and the cost to move up might just be too much. Then again, any of Daniels, Maye, McCarthy could be available later than expected. He’ll want to plan for every contingency. A first round flow chart that has all of the scenario’s and what the plan is in each case.
So far every move, comment and inuendo seems to be an effort to gather information, hedge and prepare for a number of real-time situations that will happen on Thursday night. Plan for every outcome and be prepared to be opportunistic if you get your shot.
I doubt anything is set in stone or off the table at this stage.
Didn’t the Seahawks have a 3 way competition the year Russ was drafted?
Yes, but none of them were on a $27M deal.
Geno is either the starter, the bridge or a trade candidate.
If you have Geno AND draft a rookie, Lock would become a $5M roster clog.
I believe Flynn’s salary, as a percentage of cap, is actually pretty compatible to Geno’s.
Inflation’s a….
Flynn made $4M on a $120M cap. That’s about 3.3%
Geno is $26.4M on $255.4M cap. So Geno is 10.3%
So Geno is about 3x what Flynn cost, but where does Drew fit in? Is he the TJack?
Tarvaris was traded in August. Hyping Drew up, signing him to a deal and then trading him a few months later just doesn’t feel like any sort of plan.
Like I said above, these moves all feel like hedging to make sure they don’t get burned. The plan may be to move up/down and get a QB, but if things don’t go well Drew is the fallback. Feels like a lot of love shown to a guy who is likely to be either a backup or cut… unless they were to draft a QB and trade Geno after.
Not sure where you get your information, but he signed a 3 year 19.5 million dollar deal
Contract: 3 yr(s) / $19,500,000 Signing Bonus $6,000,000 Average Salary$6,500,000 Total GTD: $10,000,000
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/matt-flynn-3452/
So that’s 5.4%. Still half Geno, but not as low as you’re saying. He also hadn’t done anything yet other than one game for the Packers, whereas Geno had completed a full season when he got his contract.
I looked at OverTheCap. Base Salary in 2012 was $2M and prorated bonus was $2M.
There was dead money when they cut him, but he only hit the cap for $4M in 2012. Geno will hit the cap for $26.4M this year. If we cut him, there will be dead cap too, but I didn’t use those numbers for either of them.
https://overthecap.com/player/matt-flynn/1558
My main point question was ‘where does Drew fit into this’? Geno’s salary isn’t that of a backup, and if you’re drafting a rookie – why be so adamant about re-signing Lock?
I didn’t understand it either. If they draft a rookie high and keep Geno, Lock is probably getting cut (if he signs at all). Although they just cleared a bunch of cap space. I don’t know what the hell they’re thinking. If I were Lock I’d move on.
I still think back to Cowherd saying a elite QB is worth 11 points a game over an average guy. Almost all other positions is 1 point. So if Schneider believes Daniels or Maye are that guy then giving up 2 years of high draft spots (assume for a second they all hit as 1 point above average guys) is still a net positive of 6 points above average if you catch my drift. If they believe in the guy that much you pull the trigger. Work it out later.
Having a QB on a rookie contract can help alleviate lost picks by using free agency to fill needs for the time period of the lost draft capital. Especially if you are willing to roll Geno for a year.
Of course my thoughts above completely ignore that its possible to find a guy later (possibly) or maybe even someone at 16.
Its not all that crazy to think next year we are in the same draft position needing to trade up to get “the guy.” If they believe in whomever it is…get it done.
It’s official – Denver is releasing Russell Wilson
Atlanta? Pittsburgh? Washington? Lil reunion with Dan Quinn?
Gotta think Vegas is a candidate. The HC’s comments in what he wants in a QB were right up Russ’s alley. Take shots.
Tampa if Baker gets away too.
Raiders & Steelers most likely IMO
Same here Rob
I feel like he’d be good with the stealers cuz Watt, Heyward are BAMFs that are the alphas on the team and Tomlin is a no BS coach. They wouldn’t let him pull the celebrity QB bullshit. Might be the same in LV with Crosby and Pierce certainly gives off that vibe.
I also think there’s a chance nobody will sign him
Do you think Vegas goes BPA if they grab Russ?
Sean Payton did not work out
Guess it also makes Denver selecting QB early also official
Was reading that Denver has met with Tulane QB Michael Pratt multiple times and that Payton has ties to his college coach.
He had a 36″ vertical.
Just saying, from a PR perspective, KJ Wright leaving and the RW getting cut landslide, today would be an interesting day to announce Jamal Adams getting cut. Just sort of get that in with the other garbage news of the day.
As we wait for the inevitable, here is a last bit of fun at JA’s expense. Gallows humor – OTC puts a cap valuation on everyone. Here are our best/worst values:
Jamal Adams: Valuation $900k – Cap hit $26.9M = negative $26M
Boye Mafe: Valuation $14.6M – Cap hit $2.3M = plus $12.3M
Russell Wilson unemployed. Richard Sherman in jail. How is Earl Thomas doing?
Earl is waiting for his brother to finish up, then all three will go out for a bite to eat.
😭
Yikes
(I do love gallows humor tho)
Chik-Fil-A?
In a completely surprising move, almost shocking, John Schneider signs Russell Wilson to the league minimum and then both have a laugh at how this was the whole plan all along and they really fleeced that orange horsey team in Colorado.
I think there’s more chance of John announcing he’s pregnant than this happening
Guys. Denver is taking an 85MILLION DOLLAR CAP HIT to release Russell Wilson. WOW!!!
https://nextimpulsesports.com/2024/03/04/denver-broncos-russell-wilson-cut-85-million/
Unreal.
It’s gonna get even sillier very soon.
$100m dead incoming.
Browns have $200m left guaranteed to Deshaun Watson and 3 seasons left.
And Geno fans were scoffing at his dead cap…
That time that Geno’s dead cap is basically equal to Flynn’s…
Russ writes out an essay thanking Broncos Country. Gave Seahawk fans 3 words.
Can’t stand the man.
Denver media and fans have clowned on him so hard too. He was never treated as well as he was in Seattle. Put his house on the market a few weeks ago apparently too so he knew this was coming. I could care less about all of it, but I know local fans are mostly in the good riddance camp.
Are you referring to his Instagram post from today? If you are I fail to see how he is throwing shade at Hawks fans when it’s the Denver area he is leaving, and leaving with quite a bit of embarrassment as well. It’s not a retirement post. Russ was an ass at times, and even though his “transgressions” were pretty minor compared to what some other star NFL players are guilty of, in the end I also found him to be very dislikable. But I don’t think he owes this franchise or the fans anything when he’s clearly getting at this excruciating public divorce with Denver and Sean Payton, a coach we were led to believe was in Russ’s daydreams prior to the 2023 football season.
If it’s something else you are referring to I have yet to see it.
March 9 2022:
SEATTLE, I love you. Forever Grateful #3
March 4 2024
SIX paragraphs to Denver fans
Vogon poetry.
I see, I didn’t infer you were comparing two different things.
Are you for real?
Russell wilson caused a power struggle for the franchise that drafted him and won him a superbowl.. all the accolades he got was from the opportunity he recieved.. he did good things and the franchise did good things.. the whole drama that happened was because he put himself over the franchise and his coach. His aspirations were more than just winning.. they were person accolades..
And what turns out was.. that a lot of us saw. Russell and pete benefited from eachother.. russ thought he was greater than what he was..
*See brady and belichick for reference..*
As you said,
“But I don’t think he owes this franchise or the fans anything when he’s clearly getting at this excruciating public divorce with Denver and Sean Payton, a coach we were led to believe was in Russ’s daydreams prior to the 2023 football season”
Yes he does.. thats the point.. he owed more than that little post.. he just thought he was going on to better things and he was gonna finally have his way and its gonna be rainbows and sunshine..
And it wasnt.. he had a horrendous first year.. and then the Broncos got Payton.. He’s doing what he has always done.. He’s saving face.. because he’s at a disadvantage.. last time, he was traded.. now… He’s cut..
So.. sorry to say.. youre 💯% wrong..
I don’t get it. We won the trade. John didn’t want him then he didn’t want to be here.
Sean Payton gets to get his guy or whatever and some team gets wilson for pennies.
Wins all around.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!
In fairness to Russ, they gave him an extra $85m that he is going to pocket while playing for someone else (at more than $40m per year). He is essentially getting two free years paid. I would be ecstatic and gushing in my enthusiasm.
As for his thanks for Seattle fans, let’s be honest, he has taken on the persona of a pop singer. It was a class less move, especially considering the number of fans who were die hard supporters up through the day he was traded.
The Seahawks should have a lottery where the winning ticket holder gets to cut Jamal Adams.
I’d buy that for a dollar
Schneider seems to be doing due diligence on the current QB class. If he can trade up for one of the top five, if any are what he wants, then good for him. If not, I am intrigued with Jordan Travis. Rob, what are your thoughts on him? Character-wise, he seems more like a Seahawk than Rattler. I am concerned about the ankle injury, seemingly similar to Lockett’s, which took the next season to fully recover, though he played well. Travis says his recovery is two months out. He might fit well behind Geno initially.
The injury was legit and I’m just not sure I see Travis as a NFL starter
Who’s the last QB that you would say has starter potential – Michael Pratt? And likely need to take him in the 3-4th round where excellent LB’s or OL that could start right away. Seems to me if it’s a pass on Penix, then there won’t be a QB picked at all once again.
I don’t think Pratt has starter potential
Probably Rattler
Tell me if you have heard this somewhere before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLiEroa6wkE