Author: Rob Staton (Page 190 of 425)

The Seahawks just drafted a running back in round one. Chris Carson is under contract for two more years. This isn’t a need — especially if they bring back Mike Davis in 2019 (which seems possible and probably sensible).

That said, this is clearly a team determined to run the ball. It’s also a team that has experienced injury issues at the running back position for years. If they don’t keep Davis — or if they keep their options open until after the draft — I want to talk about a possible mid-round addition to replenish their depth.

Oklahoma’s Rodney Anderson started the year being touted as a possible first round pick. He had 1161 rushing yards in 2017 and 18 total touchdowns. He’s 6-1 and 220lbs — a perfect frame for a NFL running back.

On September 8th in a game against UCLA he tore his ACL. Season over. He’s since declared for the draft. It’s not his first serious injury. He suffered a broken leg in 2015 and a fractured vertebrae in 2016. He didn’t play until 2017.

At the combine, teams will want to check the progress of his recovery and look at some of the other previous injuries. It’s likely, whatever they find, he’s going to be a mid-round pick at best. He might even last a little longer.

Even so, he’ll be worth a shot. He’s a highly explosive, physical runner. The cost will be reduced as a consequence of the injuries and it’s a shot to nothing really. In Seattle, he’d also be working in a time-share. It’s succeeding this year and Pete Carroll often collected prize running backs at USC.

He’s doing the same in Seattle…

2010 draft — traded for Leon Washington
2010 season — traded for Marshawn Lynch
2012 draft — drafted Robert Turbin (R4)
2013 draft — drafted Christine Michael (R2) & Spencer Ware (R6)
2015 draft — signed Thomas Rawls as an UDFA
2016 draft — drafted C.J. Prosise (R3) & Zac Brooks (R7)
2017 draft — drafted Chris Carson (R7)
2018 draft — drafted Rashaad Penny (R1)

(Note — I included Rawls in the list above because Carroll admitted after the draft that was his guy — just as Carson was in 2017)

Under Carroll, the Seahawks have consistently added running backs. Even when they had Marshawn Lynch in his prime, they spent a fourth rounder on Robert Turbin and used their first pick in the 2013 draft on Christine Michael.

For that reason, I have to believe they’d continue to keep adding if the right opportunity emerges.

Anderson might be too risky. Clearly they’ve had to endure enough injury issues. Are they willing to take a chance? With only four picks currently in the 2019 draft, can they afford a move like this?

Or do they have to max-out their picks, with Anderson providing an opportunity to get big value potentially early in day three?

For some years now we’ve been able to identify what a Seahawks running back looks like. Here’s a note from a piece written after the 2018 combine:

The Seahawks have targeted running backs with explosive athleticism and size during the Pete Carroll era. They’ve consistently taken runners who excelled in the vertical and broad jumps. Christine Michael (220lbs), C.J. Prosise (220lbs), Robert Turbin (222lbs), Alex Collins (217lbs) and Spencer Ware (228lbs) all had similar size, height and athletic profiles.

Clearly this is a meaningful trend. The Seahawks appear to have a ‘type’. Using this information, we highlighted the following players in the previous two drafts as potential targets:

2016:

C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-1 broad
Kenneth Dixon — 5-10, 215lbs, 37.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad

2017:

Christopher Carson — 6-0, 218lbs, 37 inch vert, 10-10 broad
Brian Hill — 6-0, 219lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Alvin Kamara — 5-10, 214lbs, 39.5 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Joe Williams — 5-11, 210lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-5 broad

They eventually drafted Prosise and Carson.

Considering how many running backs were available in 2016 & 2017, to narrow it down to six names and hit on two players they actually drafted is not insignificant.

This trend continued in the 2018 class. We were able to identify the following group as ‘definite’ fits in terms of their physical profile:

Saquon Barkley — 6-0, 233lbs, 41 inch vert DNP broad
Kerryon Johnson — 5-11, 213lbs 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Bo Scarborough — 6-0, 228lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-9 broad
Nick Chubb — 5-11, 227lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
John Kelly — 5-10, 216lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-0 broad

And described the following group as borderline fits:

Lavon Coleman — 5-10, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Rashaad Penny — 5-11, 220lbs, 32.5 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Royce Freeman — 5-11, 229lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-10 broad

They took Penny with their first pick. He was considered ‘borderline’ rather than a definite fit purely because his explosive testing wasn’t quite at the level of their previous selections. Even so — in terms of size he matched. His speed (4.46 forty) clearly intrigued them enough to concede a little in the explosive testing. That’s something to consider going forward — but their ‘type’ remains clear.

Again, being able to narrow down a loaded 2018 class of runners to eight names isn’t insignificant. They ended up carrying Lavon Coleman on their practise squad too, plus Pete Carroll admitted interest in Royce Freeman during his mid-week press conference before the Denver game.

Anderson at 6-1 and 220lbs fits in terms of size. His SPARQ testing also shows he’s a highly explosive athlete. He jumped a 37-inch vertical. The broad jump isn’t part of SPARQ but he also ran a 3.97 short-shuttle which is impressive for a big running back. In comparison, Bryce Love ran a 4.21 at SPARQ despite being much lighter.

Here’s a further example of his explosive athleticism:

RODNEY ANDERSON 😱😱😱😱 #SmittyBuilt pic.twitter.com/SBpWqVgBUq

— Du’Vonta Lampkin LLT🌎 (@DeeChilllin) October 24, 2017

I spent a bit of time watching his tape after studying Kyler Murray this week. Despite carrying 220lbs he accelerates away from defenders to act as a home-run hitter and his ability to change direction and cut back into space is highly impressive.

Here’s an example:

Rodney Anderson or Kyler Murray … you choose pic.twitter.com/Ixruf9mrcX

— Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau) September 2, 2018

If you need him to fight through contact, he’ll do it:

Rodney Anderson! 💪🏽 pic.twitter.com/nBsYSRrKTV

— Abdul Memon (@abdulamemon) January 1, 2018

Can he make plays in the passing game? Absolutely:

Rodney Anderson has four touchdowns in the first half for @OU_Football. pic.twitter.com/Ew6h4gAjAZ

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 12, 2017

Anderson is an early round talent that will last due to the injury history. It’s possible he’ll continue to miss time at the next level and never truly realise his potential. That said, whoever takes him will get a player with a lot more potential than the other players drafted in the same round.

If the Seahawks want to continue to collect runners for their run-heavy offense, Anderson could be an option if he lasts into the third or fourth round.

If you missed yesterday’s piece on Kyler Murray and SPARQ testing, click here.

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Kyler Murray is the best draft eligible quarterback

It’s not a great quarterback class. There’s not an obvious top-10 talent.

We could see Drew Lock go very early. Or Dwayne Haskins. It seems somewhat likely they’ll be the first two quarterbacks taken (assuming Haskins declares and Oregon’s Justin Hebert doesn’t).

That said, I’d take my chances on Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.

He says he’s still planning to return to baseball. Murray was the #9 overall pick in the last MLB draft, picked by the Oakland A’s. He agreed a deal that contained a $4.66m signing bonus. Murray’s baseball agent says he’s committed to Oakland.

It could come down to money. Josh Rosen, the #10 pick in the NFL draft this year, received a $10.87m signing bonus from the Cardinals with $17.5m guaranteed overall. If teams are willing to draft Murray in the top-15 he has a decision to make.

Lamar Jackson, the #32 overall pick, received a signing bonus worth $4.9m. It’s similar to Murray’s MLB deal. In that scenario, it might still be a decision worth contemplating. As a late first round or early second round pick, Murray would expect to start sooner rather than later (Jackson is now a rookie starter in Baltimore). If he’s drafted in the third round, he’s getting less money and there’s no guarantee he’ll ever truly compete to start (and might even be drafted by a team looking for a backup).

It’s a tough call for NFL teams too. If Murray opts for the NFL — will he be making the move knowing he can always turn to baseball in the future? Will he be constantly weighing up the two sports? Or will he simply move on with the occasional flirt (see: Russell Wilson)?

They’d also have to consider that there isn’t anyone like Murray in the league. Wilson was short but sturdy and played in a distinctly pro-style offense at Wisconsin. Murray is listed at 5-10 and 195lbs. That’s 10lbs lighter than Wilson at the 2012 combine. Can Murray get over 200lbs to allay some of those fears?

Either way, I promised never to write a player off due to height after the Wilson experience. So I’m not going to do that with Murray. And for me, he’s the most exciting QB eligible for this class. He’s an accurate passer with great feel and understanding in the pocket. He can improvise and extend plays when required. He has a terrific arm and can make the big plays downfield. He’s even more impressive when he throws with touch — and watching multiple games in the last couple of days there were clear examples where Murray delivered a beautiful touch pass. One in particular stood out — the tight end ran to the sideline on a scramble drill and Murray looped a pass over the head of one defensive back but kept the ball away from the safety. It was inch perfect.

He’s also a tremendous athlete capable of breaking contain and making big gains with his legs. He throws well on the run — whether that’s downfield or finding a check-down. There’s a lot to like.

Teams like the Giants, Dolphins, Jaguars and Redskins — they need a long term answer at quarterback. And if I’m thinking of going in that direction in 2019 — I’m getting the message out to Murray’s people that we’re interested. He’d be the most unorthodox NFL quarterback at his size. It could easily be that it doesn’t work out, that he struggles like other QB’s missing the ideal height and frame. I think you have to keep your options open though. Especially if you’re in the market for a quarterback.

Murray has something about him. A special quality. He’d be the player I’d be showing most interest in if this was a blog focusing on a team with a QB need. I think he’s worthy of first round consideration.

It’s also worth mentioning that John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game recently. Murray would be an ideal project for Seattle. Wilson is now 30. It wouldn’t be the worst time to draft a highly talented quarterback. Clearly Wilson is in his prime and having a tremendous year. He’s worthy of the contract extension he’ll likely receive within the next 18 months. But it’d be ideal to have an option when he reaches age 34. At that point, are you thinking about a fourth contract? You’d at least welcome an alternative that is trained in your offense.

New England drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in round two in 2014. He was a possible replacement for Tom Brady. In the end, the Pats traded Garoppolo for an early pick and stuck with Brady. They had that choice.

It might be time for the Seahawks to give themselves a similar option a few years down the line. Murray would fit the bill. There are two problems though — is he even willing to sit and wait for his chance with a $4.66m signing bonus to play in the MLB? And can the Seahawks justify a move like this when they currently only have four picks in the 2019 draft and clear defensive needs?

SPARQ scores for the 2019 class

Most of the top players take part in the Nike SPARQ events during recruitment. It’s a chance to show off their physical potential. It also gives us an early insight into how certain players might test at the NFL combine.

It has to be noted that the players have since grown, developed, been on proper diets and spent more time in the weight room. Some players might be slower because they’re bigger — others might’ve developed significantly since High School. This is nothing more than a gauge. Generally though, the top athletes are the top athletes. Josh Sweat for example had an unreal SPARQ score in High School and then blew up the NFL combine this year.

Some of the best players didn’t take part in SPARQ (Nick Bosa, Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins for example) while others such as Kyler Murray seemed to attend but not test. I’ve listed the players high-to-low based on their scores. It’s also worth mentioning — size matters. The heavier players aren’t going to score as well.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 184
Forty: 4.41
Short shuttle: 4.13
Vertical: 42
SPARQ: 141.96

K.J. Hill (WR, Ohio State)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 192
Forty: 4.65
Short shuttle: 3.88
Vertical: 40
SPARQ: 133.95

Porter Gustin (LB, USC)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 238
Forty: 4.63
Short shuttle: 4.13
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 130.44

Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 180
Forty: 4.47
Short shuttle: 3.90
Vertical: 37
SPARQ: 129.75

Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 208
Forty: 4.48
Short shuttle: 4.00
Vertical: 38
SPARQ: 126.93

Marvell Tell (S, USC)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 184
Forty: 4.55
Short shuttle: 4.19
Vertical: 39
SPARQ: 125.16

Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 212
Forty: 4.74
Short shuttle: 4.18
Vertical: 39
SPARQ: 124.17

Devin White (LB, LSU)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 260
Forty: 4.57
Short shuttle: 4.36
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 122.19

Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 249
Forty: 4.99
Short shuttle: 4.31
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 109.80

Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 205
Forty: 4.63
Short shuttle: 3.97
Vertical: 37
SPARQ: 109.29

Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 287
Forty: 4.74
Short shuttle: 4.38
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 109.17

Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 199
Forty: 4.74
Short shuttle: 4.09
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 108.3

Deionte Thompson (S, Alabama)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Forty: 4.77
Short shuttle: 3.98
Vertical: 36
SPARQ: 107.40

Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 289
Forty: 4.87
Short shuttle: 4.52
Vertical: 30
SPARQ: 105.63

Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 170
Forty: 4.52
Short shuttle: 4.24
Vertical: 35
SPARQ: 101.49

Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
Height: 6-6
Weight: 317
Forty: 5.17
Short shuttle: 4.53
Vertical: 28
SPARQ: 100.14

Cameron Smith (LB, USC)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 236
Forty: 4.82
Short shuttle: 4.28
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 96.45

Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Height: 6-8
Weight: 318
Forty: 5.49
Short shuttle: 4.84
Vertical: 26
SPARQ: 93.63

Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 213
Forty: 4.76
Short shuttle: 4.50
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 92.04

Jonathan Ledbetter (DE, Georgia)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 276
Forty: 5.04
Short shuttle: 4.69
Vertical: 28
SPARQ: 91.47

Jordan Fuller (S, Ohio State)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205
Forty: 4.51
Short shuttle: 4.40
Vertical: 33
SPARQ: 90.96

Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 260
Forty: 5.24
Short shuttle: 4.72
Vertical: 29
SPARQ: 90.3

D’Andre Walker (EDGE, Georgia)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 213
Forty: 4.63
Short shuttle: 4.16
Vertical: 33
SPARQ: 89.91

Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 335
Forty: 5.03
Short shuttle: 4.61
Vertical: 23
SPARQ: 88.98

Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 204
Forty: 4.84
Short shuttle: 4.35
Vertical: 31
SPARQ: 88.38

Jaquan Johnson (S, Miami)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 182
Forty: 4.75
Short shuttle: 4.28
Vertical: 33
SPARQ: 87.78

Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 213
Forty: 5.75
Short shuttle: 4.70
Vertical: 26
SPARQ: 86.1

Jeffrey Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 262
Forty: 4.96
Short shuttle: 4.61
Vertical: 25
SPARQ: 83.79

Jonah Williams (G, Alabama)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 280
Forty: 5.14
Short shuttle: 4.66
Vertical: 27
SPARQ: 82.35

Joe Jackson (DE, Miami)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 237
Forty: 4.83
Short shuttle: 4.93
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 80.31

Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 314
Forty: 5.53
Short shuttle: 4.79
Vertical: 23
SPARQ: 76.71

Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 322
Forty: 5.28
Short shuttle: 4.82
Vertical: 23
SPARQ: 64.38

What stands out…

The top two players listed here are Ohio State wide receivers. I’m a big fan of Terry McLaurin based on what I’ve seen in 2018. Dynamic, able to separate and get downfield. His best football could come at the next level.

Rashan Gary’s short shuttle of 4.38 at 287lbs is eye-catching. He was recruited as a defensive tackle prospect (Rivals viewed Gary and Dexter Lawrence as the best defensive tackle duo they’d ever seen within the same class). It’s a quicker time than Bradley Chubb ran this year at 269lbs. Rasheem Green ran a 4.39 at 275lbs. That’s the type of potential Green has — even if we haven’t seen much from him as a rookie in Seattle.

Jerry Tillery’s short shuttle of 4.53 at 317lbs and Dexter Lawrence’s 4.61 at 335lbs are also worth noting. Taven Bryan ran a 4.50 at 290lbs and landed in round one this year. Lawrence ran the same time as Jeffrey Simmons despite a 73lb weight difference. Brian Burns ran a 4.50. Again, that puts the times of Tillery and Lawrence into perspective.

Austin Bryant also performed well in the short shuttle, running a 4.31. That’s a similar time to Josh Sweat (4.28) at almost identical weights. Sweat only fell in the draft this year due to injury concerns.

USC’s Porter Gustin won’t be an early pick but he’s someone to keep in the back of your mind. Before picking up an injury this year he had 10 TFL’s and seven sacks in just six games. Production + athleticism.

I’ve been saying for a while I don’t really understand the hype around Alabama safety Deionte Thompson. He’s not a bad player but where’s the evidence of a first round talent? At SPARQ testing he ran a 4.77 at 175lbs. Rashan Gary ran a quicker time (4.74) at 287lbs. Thompson might be faster now but he’s not going to run a 4.4 or 4.5. He did test very well in the short shuttle with a sub-4.00 time of 3.98. I think he’s a cornerback in a system like Seattle’s. Long arms, lean frame, quick feet, physical. I’d be projecting him at corner as a mid-round pick.

D’Andre Walker’s short shuttle of 4.13 is quicker than Leighton Vander Esch’s 4.15 at the NFL combine. Walker’s added 30lbs since he tested at SPARQ. If he produces a similar short shuttle in March with the extra muscle, get ready. People have been underrating him all year.

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A comfortable win was the order of the day. The Seahawks need to take care of business in their remaining NFC games. This was always going to be the easiest on the slate. It’s unlikely Minnesota or even Arizona will be quite as accommodating as the Niners.

This was Seattle’s 10th straight win against San Francisco. Imagine anticipating that immediately after the 2013 NFC Championship. A rivalry that had developed into the NFL’s best didn’t last long.

There’s not a great deal to take out of the victory other than the win. The offense was efficient, Russell Wilson and the running game on point. The offense makes this team extremely competitive. Losing D.J. Fluker to a ‘pretty significant‘ hamstring strain is a blow.

The defense has some lingering issues. The pass rush still looks light and they give up too many easy big plays.

The Niners had 452 total yards on offense, including 386 passing yards.

San Francisco doesn’t have the worst O-line in the league (at least on paper). Yet this felt like a day where the Seahawks could crank things up (especially with an early and growing lead). It took until the final meaningful play of the game for someone to beat a lineman straight up (Jarran Reed, getting the third and final sack). The previous two both came on a blitz (the first from Bobby Wagner, the second shared between Justin Coleman and Quinton Jefferson).

It felt like a missed opportunity — or at least a further indication of the biggest off-season need.

The linebackers played very well — Wagner and Austin Calitro. Both ended with a pair of TFL’s and Wagner also had a 97-yard pick and a forced fumble plus recovery. It was a superstar performance and should be credited as such, regardless of the opponent.

The unit as a whole concedes too many big plays. Dante Pettis’ 75-yard score is the kind of play this defense is designed to avoid. Limit explosive plays — that’s the aim. It’s not happening at the moment.

The Niners didn’t have the punching power to punish Seattle. At times, however, it was all too easy for them. They could’ve easily scored more than 16 points. I’m not sure whether the defense deserves credit for the fact they didn’t or was it simply a fortunate day against a meek opponent?

The circle isn’t entirely complete and it’s not because of the running game any more.

In the post-season, it could be costly. And it remains, without doubt, the big priority for the off-season. One way or another they have to force more pressure next season. It’ll likely take a draft pick and a free agent addition or two. Extra competition across the board is necessary too. Work is required on the defense.

That’s the key to future improvement. For now, the Seahawks progress to 7-5. After a disjointed 0-2 start, they’ve gone 7-3 losing only to the Rams (twice) and the Chargers. All three losses could’ve ended differently.

Once again, Pete Carroll deserves credit for the way this season has developed into a legit post-season challenge.

Next week is huge. Minnesota at home on Monday Night Football. We saw what Kirk Cousins is capable of, leading a Redskins team to a win in Seattle last year.

It’s a playoff game in all but name.

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We’re near the end of the college football season, so time for an updated tier list.

I’ll keep updating this as we go along.

If you missed yesterday’s Google Hangout, listen here.

Tier 1 — the top of the class

Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)

There’s a clear #1 in this class and it’s Nick Bosa. As long as there are no major health concerns before the draft, he’ll be the first overall pick. I believe he deserves a tier on his own. He’s the complete defensive end — with the quickness and rare agility to be a dominant speed rusher, the power to manhandle offensive linemen and the size/toughness to work against the run. In a year without a top quarterback prospect or offensive tackle, Bosa goes #1.

Tier 2 — likely top-10 picks

Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)

Yes, all eight players listed in tiers one and two are defensive linemen. This is the reality of the 2019 draft class. Quinnen Williams has been a dominant force for Alabama but there will be some mild concerns about his age (19) and the fact he’s a one-year wonder. Clelin Ferrell has ideal size and length and would be a top-five pick in any class. Ed Oliver is extremely dynamic but there will be some questions asked about his fit at the next level due to his lack of length and size. Rashan Gary and Dexter Lawrence wowed High School recruiters and were the #1 and #2 top prospects in the country. One scout for Rivals called them the best defensive tackle duo he’d ever seen in one single class. They’ve long been destined for the pro’s and NFL scouts will be all over this pair. They will go early. Christian Wilkins is a phenomenal player with fantastic athleticism, prototype three-tech size, excellent character and technique. Ignore the critics. Raekwon Davis is a monster built like Calais Campbell.

Tier 3 — likely top-15 picks

Devin White (LB, LSU)
Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)

These three are a notch below the names in tier two but are still likely to be off the board quickly. Devin White was once considered the next Leonard Fournette. He was projected as a running back in High School, then he added a lot of bulk and lost some speed. Recruiters started to project him to full back, believe it or not. Then he slimmed down at LSU and became an elite college linebacker. Physical, tenacious, productive, consistent and a leader. Jachai Polite’s motor never stops. His effort is incredible. He lacks length and size but he’s extremely quick and aggressive as a pass rusher and has been productive despite a number of double teams in 2018. Derrick Brown is a complete defensive tackle. He controls the LOS, shows excellent discipline in the run game and has an impact as a pass rusher too.

Tier 4 — likely top-20 picks

Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)

Zach Allen has been a force all season. He’s big and looks like an interior rusher but still wins with get-off, speed and his hand use and technique is on-point. The combine will be big for him but he has a legitimate chance to secure a place in the top-20. Josh Allen has been a consistently effective pass rusher all season. He’s probably best suited to playing as a pure 3-4 OLB in a scheme like Pittsburgh’s. Georgia had success running right at him and Vanderbilt’s tight end also handled him. Even so, he gets to the QB and makes plays. David Edwards is a pure right tackle but teams will like his attitude, consistency and toughness. At least one quarterback will be taken early and if Justin Herbert stays at Oregon the most likely candidate is Drew Lock — a player who could’ve been a first round pick in 2018.

Tier 5 — the best of the rest

D’Andre Walker (LB, Georgia)
Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Brian Burns (DE, Florida State)
Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)

D’Andre Walker is very strong against the run despite his linebacker size. He’s capable of rushing the passer as a defensive end, dropping into space and he always plays with a high intensity. He leads Georgia in sacks. Byron Murphy flies to the ball-carrier and looks like a naturally gifted defensive back. He plays cornerback for Washington but I’d love to see him tried at free safety. Jerry Tillery was recruited as a left tackle before switching to defense. He’s as big as Raekwon Davis and provides an alternative later in the top-40. Damien Harris is highly explosive and the complete running back. Brian Burns is having a terrific year and could be listed higher but there are legitimate concerns about his weight (is he really playing in the 220’s?). I’m buying into Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown. I like his speed, ability to separate and the way he catches the ball. Major talent. Kaden Smith is a very athletic, productive tight end who will star at the combine, especially in the short shuttle.

Overrated players (or players who might go earlier than they should)

Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
Jonah Williams (G, Alabama)
A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
Deionte Thompson (S, Alabama)
Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WR, Stanford)
D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)

Greedy Williams will likely be the first cornerback off the board, possibly in the top-12. However, he still needs a lot of work and shares some of the issues Deandre Baker faces in Georgia when tracking the ball in the air. Williams has the size and looks the part but might underwhelm at the next level. Dre’Mont Jones looks great at times as an interior pass rusher. He’s quick and fluid and gets into the backfield to make plays. He also disappears from games (an issue stretching back to High School) and is a liability against the run. He doesn’t play with his hair on fire. Jonah Williams plays left tackle at Alabama but is a pure guard, lacking the length and foot-speed to play outside. He’s best blocking head-on 1v1 and has limitations. I wouldn’t consider him a round one prospect, especially at tackle. Greg Little similarly looks a bit stiff handling the edge and might need to kick inside in the NFL.

Deionte Thompson is a long, lean safety. He isn’t rangy or particularly fast. He might run in the late 4.5’s. You can’t fault his commitment or his physicality but he looks somewhere between a free and strong safety. The Seahawks would probably look at him as a day-three corner convert based on his frame. Deandre Baker lacks size, struggles to track the ball and might not test particularly well at the combine. There are character flags lingering over Montez Sweat according to Tony Pauline and while he’s a capable college pass rusher, he’s very lean and his success might not translate to the next level. N’Keal Harry wins plenty of contested catches and has YAC ability but struggles to separate. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is merely a useful redzone target and jump-ball specialist. He might be a day-three pick. D.K. Metcalf has a ton of potential. However, he has a serious neck injury. He’s declared to set the wheels in motion for a pro-career, rather than spend 2019 sitting out at Ole Miss. His long-term future is still a question mark. He likely just wants to get into the league. I doubt he’s expecting to be drafted early.

Players I’m unsure about

Jeffrey Simmons (DT, Mississppi State)
Jaylon Ferguson (DE, LA TECH)
Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S/CB, Florida)

Jeffrey Simmons is a good player. He was also filmed beating up a defenceless woman. Many teams won’t have him on their board. I’ve listed him here simply to avoid having to answer questions in the comments section about where he fits. Someone will draft him, probably in the top-50. I can live without it being the Seahawks. Jaylon Ferguson has been one of the most productive defensive players in the country this year. He looks incredibly raw, there’s some frustrating tape but also some things to like. I want to see his combine numbers. Daniel Jones has shown flashes of quality at Duke and could slip into the 20’s. I need to do more study before confirming that thought. Austin Bryant is so productive and fun to watch at Clemson. I just wonder what his ceiling is at the next level. Taylor Rapp equally is very fun to watch. I want to see testing numbers though. What is the upside with Rapp and Bryant? It could be the difference between a top-25 grade and a second round projection. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson switched from safety to nickel in 2018. There’s a lot of potential here at either position — and he’s seen as a leader. How does the league view his potential and his best position?

Players who could rise

Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
Gerald Willis (DT, Miami)
Colton McKivitz (T, West Virginia)
Steven Montez (QB, Colorado)
Joe Jackson (DE, Miami)
Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)

Christian Miller is a fantastic athlete and a productive edge rusher. This year he’s also become a much better run defender and he looks the part. Expect a big combine performance. Gerald Willis has phenomenal agility. The hype will build when you see his short shuttle result. He also has 17 TFL’s this year but will need to answer questions about a bizarre college career. Colton McKivitz is the best tackle on the West Virginia line. Can he test well to push himself into a top-40 grade? Steven Montez has everything you want in a quarterback prospect but needs time and development. He could be a steal for somebody. Joe Jackson has had a solid year for Miami and he’s well sized. A good combine could push him into the top-40. Johnathan Abram is a former four-star recruit who is having an excellent year for Mississippi State. There are concerns about his athletic upside. A good combine could push him high up the board.

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Here is today’s Google Hangout. Topics discussed include the current state of the Seahawks, why 2018 is so much better than 2017, a thorough look at the defensive line class in the draft and a Q&A to finish. Check it out…

Seahawks vs Panthers. A rivalry that ages like a fine wine.

A classic red, made in 2012.

It goes down a treat, especially with the Seahawks winning their last four regular season games in Charlotte.

This latest episode was another classic. It ebbed and flowed, with both teams taking turns to gain the upper hand.

The Panthers cut through Seattle’s defense to the tune of 220 rushing yards. They made chunk plays, moved the ball with ease and both Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey were near top form.

In response, Seattle modified their game plan and made the necessary adjustments to put points on the board. This was a game for Russell Wilson. The Seahawks struggled to run the ball with any consistency. Carolina were missing two starters in the secondary. This had to be a day for Wilson.

In similar encounters he didn’t deliver. Not at the end anyway, when it mattered. The two Rams games, the Broncos game, the Bears game. Today needed to be different.

And it was.

It had to be too. A porous defense and a stymied running game weren’t going to win this one. With the Seahawks trailing by seven in the fourth quarter, he delivered a downfield strike on fourth down to tie things up. And after a rare stop on defense and a missed kick by Graham Gano, Wilson delivered again with a big third down deep shot to win the game.

339 yards, two touchdowns, no turnovers. Another come-from-behind victory.

Seattle’s greatest ever quarterback and a future Hall-of-Famer, pulling out a vital win.

Now the season opens up for the Seahawks. They have tiebreakers against Carolina and Green Bay. The Redskins lost their starting quarterback to injury and they face the Vikings at home on Monday Night Football. If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC East, Seattle has a tiebreaker there too.

Win the remaining NFC games and they should make the playoffs.

San Francisco (H)
Minnesota (H)
San Francisco (A)
Arizona (H)

That’s the path to the playoffs. The other game is against the Chiefs at Century Link. That could be a free-hit because of the win today. A chance to make amends if they drop one of the four above.

To be in this position during a reset year with several injured or banged up key players is testament to the players, the staff and Pete Carroll.

There are still big improvements to be made, of course. This team has potential. They also need another off-season to keep building.

Today showed, yet again, most of the work needs to happen on defense.

That’s not to be overly negative of the unit. Nobody can fault their effort. Just look at the two redzone stops to start the game. They forced FIVE fumbles (none recovered) and got their first turnover in weeks with a fantastic interception from Bradley McDougald. The stop on Carolina’s final drive can’t be underestimated either.

However, the pass rush continues to be milquetoast, Cam Newton was barely touched all day, they give up too many big (easy) plays and the run defense was flat out bad.

If fixing the run on offense was all about closing the circle, it’s still not closed. Limiting the explosive plays on defense, defending the run properly and takeaways are just as important. The Seahawks are struggling in all three areas.

It’s clear to the point of exhaustion that the strength of the 2019 draft class is the D-line. They probably need at least a couple of quality additions to the defensive line. That’s possible with this class and a relatively good looking free agent group.

Other things, such as another dynamic target, could be intriguing to some. For all the talk of a ‘big target’ — Russell Wilson seems to work better with quicker, sudden receivers with dynamic speed and an ability to separate. DeSean Jackson is probably a better fit for this quarterback than a jump ball specialist.

They did draft Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett in back-to-back drafts after all — and traded for Percy Harvin the year before selecting Richardson.

When John Schneider was watching Oklahoma vs West Virginia on Friday, he might’ve noted the electric Marquise Brown (cousin of Antonio) and seen a fit for this offense.

It’s a nice thought. The offense could well benefit from a player like that. Yet while ever the Seahawks are giving up huge chunk plays and struggling to lay a finger on opposing quarterbacks consistently — that surely has to be the priority?

If they want to play their brand of football at the most effective rate, they have to improve on defense. That should be the priority in the off-season.

That’s a focus for another day though. Today is about enjoying this win. A great win, that places the Seahawks right in the hunt for the playoffs.

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Firstly, what happened to the college football season!?! It’s practically over already.

Secondly, SDB was featured in this piece looking at a collection of draft opinions on the internet. Check it out if you want. And thanks for reading.

Notes on Auburn vs Alabama

Another day, another comfortable win for Alabama. Clemson are the only team with a realistic shot at beating them. It’d be an excellent Championship game.

This wasn’t a highlight reel for the big names today. Quinnen Williams had his quietest game in a while. He had a shared sack nullified by a face-mask penalty. He wasn’t noticeable in the first half but made some plays in the second, including a nice stunt to the outside to force Jarrett Stidham inside and into the waiting arms of another Alabama defender.

Raekwon Davis was all over the field. He didn’t have a big play to put an exclamation point on his performance but he was excellent. His motor never stopped. On one play he identified a screen and sprinted downfield to make a touchdown-saving tackle. He was active to work across the line making stops against the run. He often broke into the backfield and just missed making a big play. Davis is a fantastic talent with unique size and could easily join Williams in the top-12 of the draft.

I’ve written a few times about Christian Miller this year. He’s extremely athletic with a 124.17 score at the SPARQ combine including a near 39-inch vertical and a 4.18 short shuttle. He’s effective as a pass rusher. This year, he’s developed into a more complete player. His run defense for his size has really come along. In this game he consistently contained his side of the field and defended the run superbly. On one play he actually worked across the line to make a stop for a TFL on the opposite side. He keeps his frame clean with good hand placement and is strong enough to control the block and keep his eyes upfield.

Miller also forced an interception with a pressure on play-action, forcing a bad throw by Stidham. He’s someone to keep an eye on in the next draft. He has a place in the NFL — either as an EDGE or as a DE/LB hybrid.

Auburn’s Derrick Brown pancaked Jonah Williams with two minutes left in the first quarter, dumping him on his backside. He also had a really good rush on 3rd and 9 with just over 3 minutes left in the first half. Brown used power and quickness to pressure from the B-gap and force Tua Tagovailoa out of the pocket. The quarterback attempted to make the first down with his legs but came up a yard short. Brown plays the pass and run equally well, competes with intensity and should be a high pick next year (the top-15 is possible).

Isaiah Buggs left the field in the opening five minutes with an injury. It looked bad. An Auburn blocker tried to cut-block Buggs and his knee bent back awkwardly. He had to be helped off the field and it didn’t look good. Thankfully he returned to the game but he didn’t look anywhere close to 100%. It’s something to monitor.

I’m still not convinced Jonah Williams and Deionte Thompson are as good as everyone else is saying. Williams to me looks like a clear guard prospect with limitations. Thompson is fine. He’s physical and lays a decent hit. He’s not a rangy free safety though and he lacks the size to be an intimidating strong safety. It’s worth remembering he ran a 4.71 at his SPARQ combine. What’s special about his play? Ronnie Harrison was a late third round pick. I can’t put Thompson in round one. For me, he’s a day two pick like Harrison.

Elsewhere…

— You’ll notice in the article I linked to at the top of the piece that I’m labelled the ‘ultimate contrarian’ for, among other things, really liking Christian Wilkins. I’m not sure what the big deal is here. Wilkins is outstanding and has been for ages. He’s perfectly sized to play as a modern interior rusher. He has outstanding athleticism and will have a great combine. He’s extremely productive. He has great character. He’s a top-10 talent. Against South Carolina he had another offensive touchdown on a toss play (!!!), blew up the interior O-line with a brilliant swipe move before exploding to the QB for a big sack. Austin Bryant also had a big sack when South Carolina, for some reason, matched him up with a tight end. Bryant also had two TFL’s. Jake Bentley, the South Carolina quarterback, is a junior worth keeping an eye on next season.

— D’Andre Walker had a sack and led Georgia in tackles during their big win against Georgia Tech. For some reason nobody talks about Walker. The Senior Bowl could change that. He now has 6.5 sacks for the season (a team high) as a hyrbid DE/LB.

— Ohio State hammered Michigan to make the BIG 10 Championship game again. Devin Bush left the game with what looked like a serious thigh injury. Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary both had TFL’s while Dre’Mont Jones only recorded a QB hurry. One of last weeks highlighted players Terry McLaurin had a quiet day (one catch for 12 yards) but fellow receiver Parris Campbell — a possibly second day pick — had five catches for 114 yards and a touchdown. None of Ohio State’s receivers will likely go in round one but they have a handful of players capable of forging a decent pro-career.

— I’ve got the Florida vs Florida State tape recorded and ready to watch tomorrow. Jachai Polite had a big day with 2.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL’s. Jabari Zuniga also collected a sack. Brian Burns had two QB hurries but didn’t record a sack or TFL.

— Boston College were well beaten by a handy Syracuse team today. Zach Allen only contributed half a sack. I have the first half recorded to watch back this week.

— Josh Allen had yet another sack for Kentucky in an easy win against Louisville. He now has 14 for the season with a Bowl game still to come.

— Jerry Tillery had a sack for Notre Dame against USC. It came on a well designed blitz that opened up the interior O-line using rushing linebackers, allowing Tillery to work to the quarterback in space.

— Devin White highlighted his top-10 credentials with a big game in the seven-overtime 74-72 contest with Texas A&M. White had a sack, four TFL’s, 17 total tackles and forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. White is a fantastic talent.

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