Author: Rob Staton (Page 324 of 423)

Seattle's first Australian...

Jesse Williams is good at what he does. It’s what he doesn’t do that limited his stock.

It’s emerged that he suffered a fall in the draft due to medical concerns. Some teams apparently didn’t include him on their board. The Seahawks believed he was worth a shot in round five — they traded up for the first time in the Carroll/Schneider era to make sure they got both Williams and Tharold Simon.

I’m not sure the fall from possible first or second round pick to round five was purely down to the medical situation. Personally, I thought he was a solid second round pick who could fall into round three. Others had him rated higher than that, perhaps a little too high.

He’s pretty one-dimensional. He’s a run stopper. You put on the tape and he’s tough to move. He anchored the Alabama run defense from the nose after switching from end. He’s all upper body power. In a 1v1 situation he really excels at holding his ground and limiting the inside run. Time and time again Alabama could rely on Williams to do his job.

But when you actually sit down to study his tape, he doesn’t do a great deal other than excel in a 1v1 situation versus the run. He gets stuck on blocks far too much which really limits his ability to get into the backfield. There are times where he shows very good footwork and hands to get away from a block, force the runner to change direction and dive into traffic. These are few and far between though. He’s occasionally disruptive but never really a difference maker. He is not a pass rusher. Not yet, anyway.

We’re not talking about a fantastic athlete here — and I don’t think Williams would necessarily mind anyone saying that. He’s a worker, a grafter. He’s more perspiration than inspiration. Just an honest, salt of the earth defensive tackle who will turn up every week and put in a shift. He has a clear mean streak and an edge to his game. Teams won’t fancy running his way. They’ll probably have to do a bit of game planning, maybe double team him from time to time. But unfortunately they’re unlikely to be too concerned about his ability to crash the pocket.

Don’t get me wrong, there are substantial positives to having a guy like this on your team. I maintain that in short yardage and goal-line situations, I want Williams on the field. It’s going to be very difficult to run inside with Red Bryant, Brandon Mebane and Jesse Williams lining up next to each other. Seattle’s run defense seemed to get gradually weaker as the year went on and Williams’ addition helps in a big way.

But…. he isn’t going to rush the passer. And alongside the injury issues, that’s probably why he lasted until round five. I’m guessing teams weighed up the situation. He’s one-dimensional with medical concerns over his knee. That dropped his stock. Seattle might actually be the best fit for him. They’re a team that could use some depth and strength inside, but can live with the situation if he never plays a down. He’s versatile enough to play the one, three or five technique. His attitude and personality fits like a glove.

What we might see is Jordan Hill start in base, Michael Bennett used at the three on third down and in passing situations and Williams coming in to spell Hill and play some short yardage and goal-line. That would be a nice mix. Different fits for different scenarios.

For Williams to start full-time in Seattle he’ll probably need to see Hill struggle to create pressure. If it comes down to who is better versus the run with neither being great against the pass, Williams wins that battle. But I suspect the Seahawks believe Hill can be effective getting into the backfield (while being acceptable versus the run) adding a dimension to the defensive line that they lacked last year.

This was a solid pick in round five but I do understand why he fell — and I don’t think it was just the knee. To some teams the upside potential wasn’t really worth taking the chance. To Seattle, it clearly was. Even if Williams only ever offers light relief for the starters and solid run support, it’ll still be a good move. If he struggles to have an impact or the injuries play up, it really was no big gamble for this team. Working alongside Hill and Bennett this year, the Seahawks should be able to find a combination that works.

Jordan Hill is what the Seahawks need for their defense.

It’s a pretty obvious statement, considering they took him in the third round. How much did we talk about defensive tackle being a priority during the regular season? Every week? This pick wasn’t a reach or a desperate attempt to solve one of the few problem areas on the team. It was calculated, planned and inspired.

I’ve long been a fan of Hill’s, which is in part why I’m fairly positive about the pick. However, I wanted to go back and see what I’d actually written about Hill on the blog, before returning to the tape for a closer look. On January 29th I noted the following:

Out of all the players I’ve looked at so far, Penn State’s Jordan Hill is one of the players to keep an eye on in those mid-to-late rounds.

He’s 6-0 and 295lbs and plays with good leverage. If he gets a sniff of a gap he often takes advantage, using his speed to get into the backfield. In a 1v1 match-up he holds his own in the run game, holding his position with surprising power at the point of attack even against top offensive line opposition such as Wisconsin.

Hill’s a fighter — a relentless bundle of energy who defined his teams attitude last season. He chases outside of the tackle box, doesn’t give up on plays and often executes via the second effort. In the Senior Bowl he struggled a bit to generate pressure against a double team, but it was testament that the lineman even in that environment were consistently locking onto him and trying to shut him down. Although he didn’t challenge the quarterback against the double team, he more than held his own and managed to hold position. The Seahawks don’t have enough players on that defensive line right now that warrant a double team.

On February 14th after further tape review, I also wrote the following:

I cannot talk highly enough of this guy. He’s solid against the run despite a lack of pure size (6-0/6-1, 295lbs), he gets into the backfield to make plays and he’s got that little spark to his game that you want to see from a three technique.

Since the Seahawks drafted Jordan Hill, I’ve gone back to watch four Penn State games. You’ll find tape of two of the games below (vs Wisconsin, Iowa). The other two were Ohio State and Virginia from last season. You tend to watch a guy a little more closely when he’s going to be on the team. You look for ways in which he fills a need. I’m fairly confident Hill is the closest thing Seattle could find to the interior penetrator they needed. That’s without being in a realistic position to draft a guy like Sheldon Richardson.

I’m still not sure how the Seahawks intend to play their hand at defensive tackle. I’m not sure anyone is, because they have some options now. Clinton McDonald and Jaye Howard remain on the roster from last year. They signed Tony McDaniel in free agency and added Hill and Jesse Williams during the draft. They could rotate these guys to suit. Williams (who I’ve also watched more of since the weekend) is a one-dimensional player who offered very little pass rush in college. He was tough up the middle, difficult to move. In short yardage and goal-line situations he could be an asset. I’m not convinced he’ll offer any kind of pressure though, which is really what the Seahawks need inside.

To be more exact, they need a three technique. An orthodox three technique. A guy who isn’t completely hopeless against the run, but is quick enough to shoot a gap, force the guard or center into the pocket, get some pressure on the quarterback and move well laterally against the run. Hill ticks all of the boxes, which is why I think he’ll eventually win a starting job. He’s not an amazing athlete otherwise he’d have been going in the top-15 like Richardson. Yet the style of play is fairly similar. Even though Hill played a lot of one technique in college, he’s not merely a backup for Brandon Mebane. He can start at the three. And he can be disruptive.

Looking at the defensive line, they have the ability to use three different players at the LEO (Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril). They can double up with speed off the edge in an obvious passing situation. They can use Michael Bennett as a specialist three technique or power end. They say they’ll try Avril and Irvin at linebacker. There’s so much potential there, so many different looks to present to an offense.

The biggest difference maker for Seattle’s pass rush next year might be from the inside in base. On 1st and 10 at the 20, I don’t think they’re going to get too cute with a lot of foreign looks. I think we’ll see a LEO alongside Red Bryant, Mebane and another (probably Hill). We’ll see three linebackers on the field. Or maybe two linebackers and Antoine Winfield in the slot. Just my guess. For the last three years in this situation, the entire responsibility for a pass rush lay with the LEO (Clemons). While that position has been productive for the Seahawks, alone it hasn’t been the catalyst for a fearsome pass rush.

Increasing the amount of pressure in base will take this defense to another level. Being able to really get at a team early will enhance Seattle’s status as a contender. Too many times last year they came up against a lousy offensive line filled with stopgaps and never took advantage. Press from the inside, collapse the pocket and watch the speed at the LEO position dominate.

Bennett will probably come in on third down or in situations where the other team has to chase. That’s the finishing move. The clincher. There’s improvements to be had here too — third down defense wasn’t good enough at times in 2012. Winfield also gives that area a boost.

But focusing on Hill, he offers a real chance to solve the issues in base. Let’s look at the Iowa tape. Fast forward to 2:14 in the video below:

The first thing to highlight isn’t a pass rushing move, but it’s a fun play nonetheless. Notice how well he moves laterally to the left, disengaging one block, picking through the traffic and making the tackle on a running back for a loss. That’s dominating. Let me refer back to the Bill Walsh ideal for a three technique:

“You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get underway and move over and through people. If you get knocked off the line, or get knocked sideways or knocked off balance, you cannot play this position. You must be able to work your way through people, so that kind of strength is a must.”

At 2:25 he’s lined up over the center and knifes through the A-gap to collapse the pocket. He forced the quarterback to move (and fumble) forcing a turnover. This is what Seattle needs. This is what it wasn’t getting from a nose tackle masquerading as a three technique last year (Alan Branch).

You want to see some hands? Go to 3:04 and watch how he schools the Iowa guard to break into the backfield for a big sack. Lost amid all the forty times and drills at the combine is the benefit of quick, aggressive hands. Hill has them. He can play stout against the run (holds position well) but he also has the ability to get into a lineman and quickly disengage, before rushing the passer.

Hill’s not the biggest guy, but he’s well proportioned. He’s got a nice thick base and room to get even bigger up top (muscle, rather than bad weight). I think it’s actually a good thing that he’s only 6-0 and 290-300lbs. Size is important but Hill clearly gets leverage because he’s a little shorter, he’s slight enough to stay mobile but not too small that he gets dominated. I hate comparing him to the best defensive tackle in the NFL, but that’s the kind of thing that helps Geno Atkins be so successful. Hill isn’t Atkins, but they share some similar characteristics.

At 3:25 he faces a center/guard double team. The guard eventually breaks off to try and attack the second level, but as a pair they fail to drive Hill backwards. As noted in the January piece I wrote, he faced a lot of double teams at the Senior Bowl and see you it often in the Penn State tape. He was the primary focus for the offensive lineman he faced. Very few — including Wisconsin’s brutish line — managed to slow him down.

It’s not all positive, of course. In the Iowa tape you see him get pushed back at 3:41. I’m willing to take my chances on that. There are going to be plays where he gets caught a little off balance and can’t recover. You can’t win every battle. But in the four games I’ve watched since the draft, I feel very comfortable about Hill’s ability to have an impact for this team and potentially solve a pretty big problem for the Seahawks. Only two other defensive tackles went off the board before Seattle took Jesse Williams in the fifth round (Brandon Williams, Akeem Spence). I’d argue they took Hill in just the right spot, from a value stand point and in terms of availability and need. He almost certainly wouldn’t have been there in the late fourth.

Seahawks fans should be excited about this pick.

The video below is of the Wisconsin game, always worth a watch:

Christine Michael (RB, 2nd round)
It’s impossible to overestimate the importance of Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks. He is the tone-setter, the heartbeat, the player who drains energy out of a defense while creating opportunities for the passing game via play action. What he isn’t, unfortunately, is invincible. And while he has played through a series of niggling injuries (back, foot), keeping him from a mountainous work-load is vital for both the long and short term. His contract runs until 2015 and I suspect the the Seahawks want to get through the next three years with Lynch leading the way.

They didn’t have to draft a running back in round two to address this situation — there were plenty of other backs presenting value later on (Stepfan Taylor, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy). They already had Robert Turbin and Spencer Ware (taken in round six) is no slouch. Yet Christine Michael stood out as the best player available with the final pick in round two. He was arguably the top running back in the draft and worthy of a grade much higher than the #62 pick. His role as a rookie is simple — maintain the high standards of Marshawn Lynch even when beast mode is taking a rest on the sideline. If the drafting of Michael gets Lynch through to 2015 playing the way he has so far in Seattle, it’ll be worth the investment.

Arian Foster arrived in 2010, establishing himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Houston also added Ben Tate in the second round of the 2010 draft. In 2011, Foster recorded 1224 yards and ten touchdowns. Tate managed 924 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. The Texans spelled Foster and limited his carries to 278 for the season (49 less than 2010). When Tate got injured during the 2012 campaign, Foster again had to pick up the slack and had a career high 351 carries. Lynch had 315 in 2012 (5th most in the NFL) and the Seahawks might want to get that down to around the 260-285 mark (Frank Gore had 258 carries last year). Drafting Michael allows them to do that and like Tate in 2011 he could see around 175-200 snaps.

Seattle might keep Turbin in for third downs. He showed a decent grasp of pass protection last year and he was targeted in the passing game too (with mixed results). Blocking is an area Michael has to improve and he wasn’t really used as a catcher at Texas A&M (predominantly underneath throws). Instead he’ll likely be a first and second round force, sharing snaps with Lynch in a ‘thunder and lightning’ style combo. He’s also effective in short yardage situations. Don’t rule out some special teams duties especially on kick off returns.

I’ve seen this pick described as a ‘luxury’ by some pundits and I understand that opinion. Last year’s second best rusher behind Adrian Peterson was Alfred Morris — a sixth round rookie. However, I also think there’s a slight misunderstanding of Seattle’s offense. The Percy Harvin trade and the emergence of Russell Wilson has perhaps clouded just how much of a running team this is. Seattle ran the ball 536 times last year — more than any other. In comparison, Tampa Bay (starting productive rookie Doug Martin) ran exactly 120 times less than the Seahawks. If you’re going to run that frequently, why wouldn’t you spend a second round pick on Christine Michael?

Jordan Hill (DT, 3rd round)
Seattle only lost two starters in free agency — Leroy Hill and Alan Branch. Hill remains unsigned and the Seahawks showed minimal interest in re-signing Branch (who joined the Bills after firing his agent). The Seahawks have a lot of young depth at linebacker (including Malcolm Smith, Mike Morgan and Korey Toomer) and appear set to experiment with Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin acting as hybrid rushers from the SAM position. At defensive tackle, there was a little more urgency to find a replacement (or ‘replacements’).

The defensive line is something of a point of contention. The Seahawks have earned a reputation as a tough defense that gets after the passer with a hard hitting and productive secondary. It’s not a complete red herring, but neither is it the absolute truth. Seattle ranked joint 18th for sacks last year with 36. It’s a statistic significantly boosted by one crazy half of football against Green Bay where the team sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times. Anyone who watched the Seahawks regularly last year would acknowledge the pass rush wasn’t prolific — an opinion shared by Pete Carroll when he discussed team needs going into the off-season. Seattle had a particular issue getting off the field on third and long, a bizarre fact given how adept the defense was at limiting big plays.

The Seahawks weren’t bad defending the run, but they were frustrating at times. They started the year particularly well, shutting out several opponents before the San Francisco 49ers crashed the party in week 7. At times it didn’t matter — a handful of blow out victories took away the oppositions run game fairly swiftly. According to Football Outsiders, they ended the year ranked #12 against the run. Like the pass rush, it was still an area for improvement.

Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were signed to help create pressure and lessen the burden of Chris Clemons’ ACL injury, but they still needed an interior presence. One of the issues is the total dependence on the LEO in base. Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane are limited pass rushers, as was Alan Branch. Finding someone who can collapse the pocket or at least force the guard/center into his own backfield was a must. That’s where the pick of Jordan Hill (and Jesse Williams) comes in.

Hill isn’t a big guy at 6-1 and 300lbs, but he’s incredibly stout. His performance against Wisconsin — a game he “took over” according to commentator Brock Huard — was particularly encouraging for his fit in Seattle. Not only did he flash strong gap control and the ability to hold his position against hulking, giant Badger lineman, he was also particularly productive at breaking into the backfield. He might be one of the more understated players in the 2013 draft. Having watched several Penn State games last year, his performance against Wisconsin was not a one-off.

Remember when we highlighted an article discussing “the Bill Walsh defensive tackle”? Walsh’s ideal player measured at 6-2 and 290lbs. “You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get under way and move over and through people.” Again I refer to the Wisconsin tape, where Hill was disengaging, moving across and tackling Montee Ball with relative ease for 0-2 yard gains. “The best defensive tackles move the offensive guard back into the quarterback. They won’t have nearly as many sacks as others, but if they can move the guard back into the quarterback, then the quarterback has to avoid his own lineman.” Again, this is another strong point for Hill. He’s not a sack artist. But he has the upper body power, hand use and drive to be disruptive.

The significance of all this? Pete Carroll takes a lot of inspiration from Walsh’s philosophy. Perhaps more so than any other coach he worked under.

I’m not going to argue he’s the ideal player for Seattle’s scheme. That guy was drafted #13 overall by the New York Jets and goes by the name of Sheldon Richardson. However, Hill has a shot to be an instant hit. He’ll have to compete with Tony McDaniel and Jesse Williams to get the gig, but there’s a reason why they drafted Hill as high as round three. This wasn’t a pure reach as some have suggested. He doesn’t have McDaniel’s size. Williams is a better run defender even if he is one-dimensional. But Hill might be a significantly better disruptive force as a pass rusher. And that, for me, gives him the edge. He’ll probably start in 2013 unless Williams proves his health and dominates in camp. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up contributing substantially.

Chris Harper (WR, 4th round)
As Kansas State emerged as a legit BCS title contender in 2012, I watched their games and kept noticing this big-bodied receiver who just made tough catches. It was easy to become a fan. Then during the off-season I sat down to study him as a draft prospect and started to dampen my enthusiasm. He seemed to make a handful of basic errors — fumbles, drops, missed opportunities. He wasn’t a burner and when the play call breaks down, Kansas State basically looked at Colin Klein and shouted “do something”. His receivers, including Harper, didn’t improvise. Whether they were told not to, I can’t be sure. There are several examples where they immediately became blockers for Klein instead of targets. So it might be an instruction rather than an instinctive problem.

Either way it created a slightly negative impression. This was a relatively deep class for receivers. There weren’t any A.J. Green’s for the teams picking early in round one, but there was plenty to be got at in the middle rounds. And I’ll admit there were a few players I preferred in the range Harper was drafted.

However, now that he’s a Seahawk it’s time to look at what drew them to this pick over a Quinton Patton or Ryan Swope. When you look back with hindsight, it’s fairly obvious why they went in this direction. Chris Harper offers something they didn’t have previously. The Seahawks already have players like Patton and Swope. What they don’t have is a physical possession receiver with strong hands. Harper answers the call.

When I went back to review the tape over the last few days, a couple of things stood out. Firstly, he has a knack of making difficult grabs in double coverage or with a defender draped all over him. Klein was far from a polished, accurate college passer — and a lot of his throws were there to be challenged. I suspect Harper adapted to his environment. He’s adept at positional sense, using his body to shield defenders and competing for the ball. There were two occasions in the games I watched where he made key conversions on fourth down in tight coverage. That’s what the Seahawks have drafted him to be. If he was flawless and didn’t have the frustrating errors, he wouldn’t be available in round four. He’s a possible outside safety-net who can be effective on third and fourth down. He is physical, stocky and competitive. He’s different to what they already have. So while he doesn’t stand to take too much production away from Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, don’t be surprised if he’s out there for a key third down and making a vital catch that extends the drive.

Jesse Williams (DT, 5th round)
A lot of people, including myself, expected Williams to go much earlier than he did. Part of it was hype. Not many college players come from Australia, play for a dominant two-time BCS Champion and have YOLO tattoo’d on the side of their head. He’s a media dream, a story waiting to be written over and over again. As the league desperately attempts to become more global (in a kind of overly forced manner) Williams became a poster-boy along with Menelik Watson, Bjoern Werner and Margus Hunt. As a consequence, medical problems were left largely unreported.

The warning signs were there. Williams only did the bench press at the combine and didn’t appear at the Senior Bowl. He was constantly banged up in 2012, often leaving the field during games. And when asked by Seattle’s media about his draft fall, he admitted he didn’t expect to be a high pick. When a player as well known as Williams falls to round five, you instantly know there’s a problem.

The Seahawks still felt he was worth the risk. Nobody would question his NFL potential. They traded up in round five to make sure they got both Williams and Tharold Simon. You get the sense that John Schneider prides himself on the ability to find value in the 5th round. This was the only time he’s traded up in four drafts. He had to get both of these players.

If Williams is healthy there’s no reason why he can’t fit into the rotation and maybe even start. Carroll says he’s a three technique and that’s the position they have to fill after letting Branch walk in free agency. I’d argue he’s pretty flexible — he’s played the five technique, the three and the nose at Alabama. He could theoretically feature in all three positions in some capacity. There’s a reason he dropped to the fifth, though, and it wasn’t because of a lack of talent. Seattle’s previous hits in this round (Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman) were simply overlooked. It was impossible to overlook Jesse Williams. For that reason you almost have to temper expectations, especially given the fact he’ll be competing with two other off-season additions (Jordan Hill, Tony McDaniel) for playing time.

I wouldn’t rule out his ability to get healthy and even start in 2013. As a pure talent, he’s capable. He’s a terrific run stopper with tremendous upper body power. He plays with attitude and gusto. I’d expect a measured role in year one, helping out in short yardage/run situations. And who knows — maybe he’ll even play some fullback, just as he did in goal-line packages for Alabama. From a talent stand point, there’s no reason why he can’t be another Schneider success story.

Tharold Simon (CB, 5th round)
This could be the most intriguing pick of the bunch. For starters, this is the player Seattle traded up to get. Carroll admitted at the end of the draft that Simon was the player they moved up to get. They were going to take Jesse Williams at the top of the fifth, but didn’t feel they could wait for Simon at the end of the round. Any player that John Schneider moves up to get, you figure they must have something about them.

When you look at Simon’s physical appearance, he just screams ‘Seahawks’. He’s long, tall and pretty much the prototype for Carroll’s vision for the position. There might not be a better staff in the NFL when it comes to coaching cornerbacks. How else do you explain the way Richard Sherman has gone from 5th round flier to elite shutdown corner? Brandon Browner, plucked from the CFL, becomes a pro-bowler. When Browner served a four game suspension, in comes rookie Jeremy Lane to cover Randy Moss in a heated divisional battle. Seattle’s front office knows what it wants in a corner, and the coaches know how to get them ready for the NFL.

Simon’s tape reminds me a little of Sherman’s at Stanford. It’s inconsistent. He gets beat occasionally, particularly on the double move. He’s not a sudden athlete and he’ll give up too many comfortable receptions by easing up on the release. Yet he also plays the ball well and has that aggressive streak that fits the teams current swagger. If you round off the rough edges, coach him up and let him challenge 1v1, he could easily be another late-round steal for this team and a long-term starter.

I don’t expect Simon to start or feature heavily in year one. Like Sherman he’ll need to wait for an opening. It might not come in 2013, he might have to be patient. There’s depth at corner and he better be ready to fight for a roster spot. And when he gets an opportunity, like Sherman, he needs to grab it. He has the potential to start in this league and he couldn’t ask for a better fit. It’s really all down to how much he wants it and his ability to keep working even if he doesn’t see that much game time in year one.

What about the rest?
Like everyone else, I’m scrambling around for information and tape on the other picks. Spencer Ware is going to be tried at full back, but I like his ability as a runner too. As for the rest, it’s difficult for anyone to offer much of an opinion at this stage. Michael Bowie started at Oklahoma State so I’ll run through the back catalogue of games I have saved to get a check on him. I think there’s a feeling they can coach up offensive lineman into Tom Cable’s scheme. Remember, that was Alex Gibbs’ approach too. We might not see any more high picks in that area, given the team is sorted for the long haul at the two key positions (left tackle and center). Bowie, Ryan Seymour and Jared Smith will all get the Cable clinic in camp.

What they’re saying

Evan Silva offers an A- grade for Seattle’s 2013 class. “The Seahawks have drafted just like this every year under Schneider and Pete Carroll. Seems like it’s working.”

Chris Burke gives the group a B-. “The Seahawks had a roster built to roll the dice a bit in the draft, and that’s just what they did with their first three picks.”

Mel Kiper gives it a B, in part because of the Percy Harvin trade. “I don’t know that Seattle added a starter among their picks, but they certainly added one in Harvin.”

USC's Marqise Lee should be a top five pick

It’s far too soon to consider who might go in the first round of next years draft — and players will always emerge (or sink) during a season. Nobody called out Eric Fisher as a prospective #1 pick twelve months ago, so a lot can change. Even so, there’s no harm in having a quick look. And hey, it’ll be fun to see how this list adapts during the course of the next year.

#1 Jadaveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
Generational talent at defensive end. As long as he avoids injury, he’s virtually a lock to go first overall.

#2 Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
Unflappable. Willing to play through the pain barrier. Strong arm, accurate, has won big games in his career. The only player likely to challenge Clowney to go first overall.

#3 Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Doesn’t have elite size but neither does Alabama’s incredible sophomore Amari Cooper. Within the next few years both should be top-five picks.

#4 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
Would’ve been a top-12 pick this year had he declared. Will boost his stock even more if he performs well at left tackle. Might be better than Luke Joeckel.

#5 Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama)
The next great defensive back off the production line for Nick Saban. Tremendous talent.

#6 Cyrus Kouandijo (T, Alabama)
Kept D.J. Fluker at right tackle and he went #11 overall. Should be a top ten pick.

# 7 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Monster of a receiver. Could be hurt by a lack of good quarterback play. 6-6 with deep speed and YAC ability.

#8 Austin Seferian Jenkings (TE, Washington)
Potentially the next great athletic tight end.

#9 Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
Had a terrific season in 2012 after transitioning from full back (of all positions). Pure speed off the edge.

#10 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
Another player who could’ve easily been a top-15 pick this year. No reason why he won’t maintain that grade.

#11 Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU)
Explosive playmaker. Size may be an issue for some but you can’t argue with 19 sacks in the last two years.

#12 Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame)
Looked average against Alabama in the BCS title game but had a very good 2012 overall. Scheme diverse.

#13 Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
Tall, strong hands and enough speed to be a difference maker. A bit like Brandon Coleman (he’s 6-5, 218lbs) he has limitless potential. If Manziel stays productive, Evans could become a star too.

#14 Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Missed time last year and ceded his role as Clemson’s best playmaker to DeAndre Hopkins. Even so, with Hopkins in the NFL now Watkins has a chance to shine.

#15 Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
Big nose tackle. Another player who didn’t look great against Alabama. But who did on the night for Notre Dame?

#16 De’Anthony Thomas (WR, Oregon)
The way the NFL is going, Thomas has a shot to be an early pick.

#17 Ed Reynolds (S, Stanford)
Playmaking safety, seemed to be doing something every week in the PAC-12.

#18 Scott Crichton (DE, Oregon State)
15 sacks in two years so far for the Beevers. He’s shown a lot of promise and I’m looking forward to seeing more in 2013.

#19 Lache Seastrunk (RB, Baylor)
Ended the year on fire and he’s already making statement’s about challenging for the Heisman. It’s not unrealistic.

#20 Timmy Jernigan (DT, Florida State)
Limitless upside but like a lot of FSU defensive players, hasn’t dominated to this point. Big year in 2013.

#21 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Surprised a few by not declaring this year. Simply put, he makes plays. He has a nose for the ball.

#22 Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Great corner who could’ve been a high pick this year (round two at worst?). Plays on a winning team and should continue to prosper.

#23 Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)
He pretty much wings it. I’ve put him on the list, but I need to see more. Huge question marks here on just how effective he may or may not be at the next level.

#24 Austin Hill (WR, Arizona)
Bailed Matt Scott out a few times last year before a bad ACL injury. Amazing hands. Not a burner but so reliable.

#25 Ra’Shede Hageman (DE, Minnesota)
Caught a little bit of a hype during the off-season before choosing not to declare. He has potential, but I need to see more production in 2013.

Honourable mentions: Chaz Green (T, Florida) — may move to left tackle, has the athletic upside to make the switch. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB, Oregon) — anticipates the ball, times his hits well. Decent upside. Daniel McCullers (DT, Tennessee) — huge defensive tackle but moves so well for the size. Colt Lyerla (TE, Oregon) — I’ve heard great things about Lyerla, I look forward to watching him next year.

If you think I missed anyone out let me know in the comments section.

I also want to touch on the quarterback group briefly. This year I feel like the NFL almost talked itself into disliking the bunch available. While the media waxed lyrical about what a bad class it was, it really wasn’t any worse than previous years where guys like Tim Tebow somehow found a home in round one. Colt McCoy was a third round pick, when he probably should’ve been a sixth rounder. Jimmy Clausen went in round two and Christian Ponder at #12 (!!!) overall. Now either the league is learning to not overvalue the position, or they went a bit over the top this year. If Russell Wilson hadn’t happened in 2012, there are at least 3-4 guys I would’ve thrown my weight behind as possible long term starters in Seattle.

Chip Kelly admitted he had a top-50 grade on Matt Barkley, which is why he traded up in round four to get him. It wouldn’t surprise me if Barkley starts for Philadelphia this year. Stranger things have happened. But why on earth was he (and others) still lurking on day three?

It might be a similar case next year. Teddy Bridgewater looks like a shoe-in to be the top quarterback taken. But after that there’s a cluster of other ‘big names’ who are going to get talked up a lot, but probably don’t match up even to Barkley, Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib and Tyler Wilson.

Johnny Manziel is a big hit after winning the Heisman, but I’m sceptical about his pro-prospects. Very sceptical. Which is why he’s only at #23 here. Some are suggesting he’ll be a top five pick. A lot of his game is playing in chaos, running around to extend plays and improvising. It’s fun to watch, but completely unorthodox. If he has another amazing year at Texas A&M, perhaps a team will believe in the guy enough to take him early? But for me he’s going to be one of those players that really divides opinion.

Logan Thomas had a miserable 2012 season but the appearance of E.J. Manuel in round one will give him hope. If Manuel succeeds, that probably helps Thomas’ case. But he really needs to improve because last year was car crash at times. The play calling didn’t help, and it hasn’t helped at Virginia Tech for years.

Alabama’s A.J. McCarron and Georgia’s Aaron Murray will likely go at it again in the SEC, but neither has the necessary physical tools to warrant much interest until later in the process. Tajh Boyd had a great Bowl game against LSU to end last season, but he lacks the consistency and physical tools to get you excited about much more than a mid round grade.

David Fales has almost a hipster style following on the internet and has some nice tape out there for San Jose State. And yet there’s still something so ‘meh’ about him. He’s one to keep an eye on, though. He looked good against Stanford last year. Derek Carr on the other hand has never really done anything for me and I thought he was poor against SMU in Fresno State’s bowl game to end the season.

While this year’s class was pilloried for its lack of quality, we could see a very similar story in 2014. A lot of teams have invested in young quarterbacks during the boom years of the passing football in the NFL. We might see a little lull as some succeed and others fail, while other ageing quarterbacks approach retirement. Then the craze starts all over again.