Author: Rob Staton (Page 329 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Saving money at right tackle & Kyle Long

Oregon's Kyle Long could be an option at #56

I was half expecting something to happen this weekend. Kam Chancellor getting a new deal. Tony McDaniel signing. Whatever. It’s been as quiet and slow this week as the previous seven days were explosive and enthralling.

John Schneider’s admittance that the next priority is to extend the contracts of their own players suggested something might be close. Maybe this will take a little longer than expected? Once Chancellor gets his new contract (and it’s probably a formality) they’ll see how much cap room remains and plan from there. We could see further cuts as this things get worked out, especially if they also want to offer new deals to Earl Thomas and Golden Tate too.

Until then I guess everything else is on hold. Seattle’s two greatest needs on paper still seem to be defensive tackle and linebacker. They are the only two positions where they’re potentially losing starters.

There’s every chance they’ve identified two replacements in the draft and have an exceptionally strong feeling they’ll land the players they want. After all, they made such plans for Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson last year. Perhaps we’ll see many of the defensive tackles falling into the late second, giving the Seahawks a pool of talent to choose from? Maybe they know a mid-to-late linebacker who’s going to come in and compete for (and possibly win) the starting WILL job?

Or perhaps they feel comfortable with this being a deep class until about the mid-third round and appreciate they’ll get a pretty good player whatever the circumstances?

In that scenario, nothing is out of the question. So while defensive tackle and WILL are holes that need to be filled, they aren’t such striking needs that they simply must be addressed without question on day two of the draft.

We’ve discussed the option of drafting a swing guard/tackle prospect at #56 when I mocked Dallas Thomas to Seattle a couple of weeks ago. I still think they feel good enough about their coaching situation and ability to find players to avoid going offensive line early. I think we could see another raw talent added like J.R. Sweezy. Another project for Tom Cable. Overall there’s already quality depth at guard on the roster and getting a veteran backup tackle isn’t exactly difficult.

The other dynamic though is the constant thought process of planning ahead. Cheap labour is vital for Seattle when they’re making all these exciting moves for Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Golden Tate, Brandon Browner, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright (plus others) all earn a relative pittance. Eventually, some will earn the big bucks. So finding ways to make savings elsewhere will be crucial if the plan is to keep the team intact.

Regular visitors will know I’m a fan of Breno Giacomini. I think he gets a raw deal from fans based purely on a laundry list of penalties early in the 2012 season. The perception stuck that Giacomini wasn’t doing his job. The reality, in my view, was very different. Once he’d cut out the mental errors and penalties, he thrived. Watch him perform against a collection of the league’s best pass rushers and you’ll see what I mean. He had a terrific 2012 season on the whole.

However, regular visitors will also know how often we’ve debated the importance of the right tackle position. A right tackle has the benefit of protecting a quarterback’s strong side, he often gets help from a tight end and they’re mostly judged on their ability to create running lanes. There are still teams (like Seattle) who keep their best pass rusher attacking the blind side. Any right tackle coming up against the Seahawks for example has to pass-protect against Red Bryant for the first two downs. It’s not a premium position and it’s the main reason why so few teams put a lot of emphasis on it. Most people would struggle to name more than five right tackles in the NFL. There’s a reason for that.

I firmly believe you can and should be able to plug guys into that role with good coaching. And yet Breno Giacomini is due to earn $4.25m in 2013 in the final year of his contract.

That’s pretty high.

One way around this could be to sign an extension now, giving Giacomini long-term security while spreading out the cost over (let’s say) a three-year deal. As much as a right tackle can be plugged in, consistency is also key. Keeping the same faces together on the offensive line is one of the best ways to create a productive unit. Five guys have to work as one.

If a new contract doesn’t happen, then Giacomini might be one of the players you can make a saving on down the line. Rather than continue to pay him $4.25m (or a similar amount) you could pay a player drafted with the #56 pick a salary worth $1.2m at it’s highest point. Ohio State tackle Mike Adams was the #56 pick last year (taken by Pittsburgh). His cap hit as a rookie was $644K. He will take up $805K in 2013, $966K in 2014 and $1.12m in 2015. That’s a considerable saving compared to the money Giacomini is earning this season.

Even if Giacomini is willing to take a long term contract to lessen the cap hit, he’s not going to accept a salary as low as the one Mike Adams signed. So even as a self-confessed member of the Breno Giacomini fan-club, I understand a situation where he moves on next year.

The best way to maximise the cap saving would be to draft a rookie next year as a direct replacement. However, this also means a rookie would have to start immediately and that comes with its own pitfalls. Drafting a player this year and using 2013 as preparation could be useful. And it’s the main reason why I’m identifying Kyle Long in this piece.

Most people are aware of his back-story, but here’s a quick summary. He’s the son of Howie and brother of Chris, but actually went to Florida State to play baseball. It’s a little bit odd that he didn’t play football until his sophomore year at High School given his bloodlines, but I’ve not been able to find any information as to why that was. He failed out at FSU and was arrested for a DUI in 2009. Apparently Howie gave him a few home truths during this time and after a year away from sport, he went down the JUCO route and eventually ended up at Oregon where he played tackle and guard.

On tape he looks like a guy with limited football experience. There are occasions where he very clearly struggles to identify what a defense is going to do and this is more evident, perhaps worryingly, against the run. Strangely for a guy with his size and attitude, he’s better in pass protection. Guys like that often get labelled as ‘finesse’ but he’s not what you’d call ‘a technician’. I think he just needs more coaching and more time on the field.

And yet physically he has so much potential and absolutely looks the part at 6-6 and 313lbs. The Seahawks seem to want size not just at defensive tackle, but also on the offensive line. James Carpenter is massive while Giacomini is 6-7. None of the other guys are ‘small’ either. Long could theoretically work as a guard or tackle in Seattle’s scheme. He’s agile and sinks his hips well to get leverage on pass plays. His hand use is relatively good but could still use some improvement. He’s relaxed and confident when defending the edge and does a good job mirroring rushers. One look at his frame and he appears made to play in the NFL — and he has the upper body power to eventually excel against the run. He’s an athlete playing on the offensive line and these days, those guys are rare. It’s why he could still work his way into the early second round.

Given all his issues at Florida State, his lack of experience and the fact he was concentrating on baseball just a few years ago, his rise to prominence is fairly spectacular. If the upward curve continues, you could be looking at a high-value pick — especially for a team that has one of the best in the business working the offensive line.

He seems tailor-made to spend a year with Cable enhancing his skills. The Seahawks were happy to spell Sweezy with John Moffitt last year to give the rookie needed time on the field. Why wouldn’t they do the same between Long and Giacomini? Then in 2014 you have a well prepared athletic specimen to come in at right tackle who is earning $800k instead of $4.2m.

I also get the sense Pete Carroll would buy into the NFL pedigree and ‘name’ value of Long, plus the potential. The only thing that might be holding them back is the evidence they are prepared to search for diamonds in the rough such as Sweezy, lessening the desire to go for offensive lineman early. Yet in many ways drafting Long is a move that makes a lot of sense — especially when it comes to cap room and finances going forward.

Thursday links and notes

Could this be a guy for Seattle?

Just a few things to keep you up to date…

Tony McDaniel, a free agent defensive tackle, is meeting with the Seahawks today according to Adam Schefter. He’s a former UDFA out of Tennessee (2006) who’s spent time with Jacksonville and Miami. Last year he recorded just a half-sack in limited playing time with the Dolphins, but he had five sacks overall in 2010-11.

He’s had a couple of ugly run-ins with the police. In January 2005 he assaulted a fellow Tennessee student during a game of pick-up basketball. Edward Goodrich suffered four broke bones in the incident and needed a metal plate inserting into his face to repair the injuries. McDaniel pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault. Four years later he was arrested on the charge of domestic battery against his girlfriend. The charges were later reduced to disorderly contact, another misdemeanor. He was sentenced to six months probation. He was also required to attend counseling and served a one-game suspension issued by the NFL.

He’s 6-7 and 305lbs. That appears to be Seattle’s preference at defensive tackle. Size. Or more specifically, height. Alan Branch is 6-6, 325lbs. I’m not sure they’re looking for a 340-350lbs space eater. I think they’re looking for a taller tackle with proportionate size who isn’t just a one-trick pony. It’s kind of a unique look. Not a nose tackle, but not a three-technique either.

The thing is, there doesn’t appear to be many players who fit that style in this years draft. John Jenkins is just shorter than 6-4 and weighs a massive 346lbs. He might be too big. Kwame Geathers is 6-5 but again on the big side at 342lbs. I’m struggling to find others.

Maybe there are players in this draft class, such as Sly Williams or a Kawann Short, that go beyond any size ideals? Yet if they are looking for a tall, 315-325lbs — the options aren’t great. Montori Hughes (6-4, 329lbs) fits the criteria. Yet he didn’t look all that special at the Senior Bowl (see below). He’s certainly not a pass rusher at this stage. His pad level is all over the place, while his hand use lacks any real technique. He doesn’t convert speed to power at the snap and often gets beat pretty early during a rush. He does have a lot of core strength though for the run game and this can be harnessed. Short arms (32.5 inches) are a concern though.

He’s also got plenty of his own off-field red flags, including:

– Reportedly being involved in a bar-room altercation involving several members of the Tennessee football team, although he was not charged by police

– Suspended in 2010 for a violation of team academic rules

– Suspended two more times from team activities for unspecified offenses

– Dismissed by Tennessee after a further altercation in a dorm room in 2011

– Coaches at Tennessee questioned his work rate and desire for the game

Like many players who are kicked off a big program, they go to a smaller school (in this case Tennessee-Martin) and knuckle down. There were no fresh incidents with his new team. He’s a former three-star recruit and was also a talented basketball player at Siegel High School. The potential is there. He fits what Seattle is looking for at least in terms of size and hey — they’re speaking to McDaniel with all of his former problems. Maybe they consider Hughes too? The off-field concerns and on-field performance might force him down the board. He’s become a bit of a media favourite this off-season, but that’ll only get you so far. If they feel confident to go after a big tackle later in the draft, Hughes is one to monitor.

Who knows, the plan might be to use Greg Scruggs as a permanent defensive end. According to his Twitter feed, he’s added 10lbs this off-season. That would put him around 295lbs at 6-4.

Pete Carroll spoke to Mike Florio in Arizona this week. There’s an interesting remark on Russell Wilson, where Carroll admits they would’ve taken him in round two if necessary. Yet they felt he’d be around in round three. And they were right. Thankfully.

This is a fine interview by Florio, incidentally. One of the best I’ve seen with Carroll.

According to Mike Sando, the 7th round pick Seattle traded to Minnesota in the Percy Harvin trade was the #214 overall selection. That’s the pick Buffalo gave Seattle for Tarvaris Jackson.

The Seahawks had representation at Cumberland’s pro-day today. They were watching 6-4, 255lbs tight end B.J. Stewart. You can get a look at him here here and here. It’s coaches-copy tape too.

The NFL has released the official draft order as things stand today. You can see it by clicking here.

It was the Stanford pro-day today and Zach Ertz ran a 4.66 according to Tony Pauline. The track is notoriously fast (Coby Fleener ran in the 4.4’s last year). It’s hard to get an angle on Ertz’s stock right now. Could he fall into the late second round? And is he too good to pass at #56?

Georgia also held their pro-day today and Jarvis Jones had a chance to work out for scouts. I guess we know why he skipped the combine after running a reported 4.92. He was never likely to post a lightning quick time, but that’s slower than expected. Some reports say he pulled a hamstring during the run. It’s funny how hamstring injury’s always seem to happen to pass rushers running in the 4.9’s (Jarvis Jones, Damontre Moore…)

Florida State’s pro-day took place earlier in the week. Tank Carradine still didn’t do anything apart from the bench press, but he has an individual work-out scheduled for the week of the draft. I’m still sceptical that a.) he’ll be able to compete that soon after injuring an ACL and b.) it’s the right thing to do. Getting 100% healthy must be his priority, not fitting in a work-out for the sake of it.

Having spent considerable time talking against an offensive lineman being drafted in round one (and let’s be right, it was never likely to happen), I do think the Seahawks will consider a swing tackle/guard on day two of the draft. It’s why I mocked Dallas Thomas at #56 last week. It’d still need to be a value pick — it’s not a big need that must be addressed. But I think it’s something they could consider. Here’s some more Thomas tape vs Florida courtesy of JMPasq:

I found this note interesting from the owner’s meeting this week — Seattle and Philadelphia agreed on a first round trade the day before the draft last year. The Eagles moved up for Fletcher Cox while the Seahawks moved down three spots and took Bruce Irvin. It goes to show two things. One — Seattle didn’t have much interest in Cox. Two — teams have a pretty good idea how things will shake out.

It’s worth keeping a tally on who’s visiting Seattle for a workout. Look at this list of defensive players (compiled by Davis Hsu) who made a pre-draft visit in 2012. There are some familiar names on there.

Players to keep an eye on this year include Louisville running back Jeremy Wright, Tarleton State DE/OLB Rufus Johnson and UCLA long snapper Kevin McDermott. In the two videos below you’ll see Wright competing against Rutgers (it’s also a tape feature for Khaseem Greene, so check him out too) and a highlights package for Johnson. All three players named above are visiting Seattle.

Mock draft Wednesday’s: 20th March

If Sly Williams falls into day two, he'd be a great option for Seattle

Most people voted in favour of keeping trades in the mock, so that’s what I’ve done. There are nine in total this week — a comparable amount to what we saw in the first round last year. Looking at this draft class overall I think we’ll see a lot of cheap movement. We might see a handful of deals that go against market value. A lot of the teams picking in the 11-20 range for example might want to move up to fill a certain need. But I can also see a few teams (like Cleveland) that’ll be more than happy to move down.

Buffalo (#8) trades with Jacksonville (#2) for a 2nd round pick + 2014 2nd rounder
The Jaguars sent a convoy to Geno Smith’s pro-day but this looked like a classic smokescreen. They’ll almost certainly look to move down. With Chris Mortensen repeatedly linking Oakland to Geno Smith, this could force potential suitors to act. Buffalo GM Buddy Nix said during the 2012 season that it could be time to move up and get a quarterback. I suspect Smith will go second overall, it’s just a case of which team moves up.

San Diego (#11) trades with Cleveland (#6) for a 2nd round pick
This makes too much sense. The Browns don’t have a second rounder after taking Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft last year. The Chargers need a left tackle badly. Assuming one of Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson is still on the board at #6 — San Diego could move up to get their guy.

Carolina (#14) trades with Arizona (#7) for a 3rd + 5th round pick
The Cardinals need to put down some roots at quarterback. Last year was a farce. And with the possibility of the top-three tackles going early, it takes away their other big need as an alternative. Having said that, they could move down and get the next best available quarterback. Carolina might be prepared to move up and fill a big need at defensive tackle. With Sharrif Floyd still available in this projection, they do just that.

Dallas (#18) trades with Cleveland (#11) for a 3rd + 5th round pick
Jerry Jones has shown a willingness to move up in the draft. The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 and need the pieces to make it work. Jay Ratliff’s latest arrest is a concern and Dallas might be considering moving on. They could move up to get Star Lotulelei. He did everything at his pro-day today and the medical news appears to be positive.

Chicago (#20) trades with Tampa Bay (#13) for a 3rd round pick
The Bears don’t have a ton of needs but they can’t be totally satisfied with their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod. Trading up for a guard is uncommon, but Jonathan Cooper is up there with Chance Warmack and Mike Iupati as players worth taking in this range. Tampa Bay knows it can get a cornerback at #20.

Minnesota (#23) trades with New York (#19) for a 4th round pick
The Vikings have two first round picks and might use one to move up and get a playmaker at receiver. Even after signing Greg Jennings, they could use another X-factor type like Cordarrelle Patterson. The Giants have plenty of defensive options remaining in this scenario and feel comfortable moving down four spots.

Atlanta (#30) trades with Green Bay (#26) for a 4th round pick
With Bjoern Werner falling into the 20’s, Atlanta trades up to get an impact pass rusher. The value at #26 isn’t great for Green Bay’s needs so I’d guess they’ll be willing to move down.

San Francisco (#31) trades with Indianapolis (#24) for a 4th + 5th round pick
The Niners aren’t going to keep 14 rookies on their roster, so it stands to reason that they’ll move up at some point. Datone Jones looks like an ideal fit for their defensive front. Indianapolis, like Green Bay, aren’t going to get value at #24 if they want to target the offensive live. A trade makes sense for both teams. The Colts would probably like to get some extra picks after trading a 2nd round choice for Vontae Davis last season.

Philadelphia (#35) trades with Baltimore (#32) for a 5th round pick
Last year the Buccaneers moved back into the late first to select Doug Martin. Denver traded down for a pittance, knowing they could get Derek Wolfe on day two. We could see something similar here. The Eagles re-signed Michael Vick but he’s not the future. Neither is Nick Foles in this offense. E.J. Manuel is trending upwards.

Seattle’s pick in round two is fairly straightforward. It appears they are concentrating on re-signing Kam Chancellor and maybe also Earl Thomas and Golden Tate. We’ll see how much cap room they have left when those talks are concluded. If they’re unable to sign a free agent defensive tackle, it becomes a big need in the draft. And if Sylvester Williams drops to #56 he has to be an option. His age (25 year old rookie) will put some teams off. The depth at tackle is also likely to push some attractive options down the board.

Don’t forget — We’ve teamed up with NFLSHOP.com so you can get hold of a new Percy Harvin jersey. So if you want to support the Seahawks on gameday with an online purchase, do it through Seahawks Draft Blog!

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First round

#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
Their reported willingness to discuss a trade for Branden Albert makes this a formality.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
Buddy Nix said it was time to move up and get their quarterback.
#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
They need to build a foundation. Jordan has as much talent as anyone in this draft.
#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Having made significant moves to boost the defense in free agency, they now concentrate on the offensive live.
#5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
With Joeckel and Fisher off the board, they take the best corner.
#6 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
Having seen Joeckel and Fisher leave the board, they don’t wait to see if Johnson will be there at #11.
#7 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
Perhaps Carolina’s biggest need. They pay a big price to jump ahead of Jacksonville.
#8 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
He’s too good to pass up.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball. A solid pick with no long term issues if there’s a coaching change.
#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
Someone is likely to take a chance on Ansah in the top-ten.
#11 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 and need an interior presence. Jerry Jones is not afraid to move up. This is health permitting.
#12 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
The Dolphins could do with improving their secondary.
#13 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Ok, they signed Jermon Bushrod. They still need to keep building that line. And I think they know it.
#14 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
After moving down for an extra two, they get their quarterback of the future.
#15 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Some teams will still be cautious, but if Jones’ back injury really isn’t as serious as feared — he should be a top-15 pick.
#16 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon.
#17 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Pittsburgh needs a linebacker and someone will roll the dice on his talent.
#18 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
After trading down twice to accumulate picks, the Browns get a tight end for Rob Chudzinski.
#19 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Rather than hang about, Minnesota moves up to secure Patterson.
#20 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
I just have a hunch there will be teams who rate this guy very highly.
#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.
#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
With Steven Jackson in Atlanta, they need another big, physical runner to win in the NFC West.
#23 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He drops a bit and New York halts his slide.
#24 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
The Niners need to bolster that defensive front and they have the picks to move up.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?
#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.
#27 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
One of the hardest players to judge this year. Something puts me off this guy, despite the size and speed.
#28 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
They need to improve a porous secondary.
#29 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
He could be Tom Brady’s new best friend.
#30 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
They move down and grab a pass-catcher. This is a need considering they’ve lost both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
#31 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
Maybe Indy’s biggest need?
#32 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
Like Tampa Bay last year (Doug Martin) the Eagles manufacture a cheap trade to move back into round one.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco- Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Baltimore – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#36 Detroit – Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#38 Arizona – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#41 Jacksonville – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#42 Miami – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#43 Tampa Bay – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#45 Cleveland – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#46 St. Louis – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Johnthan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#50 Chicago – Keenan Allen (WR, Syracuse)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#57 Houston – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas)
#58 Denver – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)
#59 New England – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#60 Atlanta – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)

Robert Woods is extremely underrated

Most underrated player in the draft? Probably

This piece was partly inspired by a reader comment on Sunday. ‘Bobk333’ wrote in the Gavin Escobar article that he considered Robert Woods the most underrated player in the draft, stating:

Woods has all the markings of a *great* – as in all-pro, as in hall-of-fame potential – NFL receiver. Speed is important for an NFL wideout, but the importance has been taken to the extreme. Skill in catching the ball, running routes, fooling defenders, along with intelligence, timing and body control, are more important than raw speed in the 40-yd dash. Woods reminds me of skilled, smooth, intelligent, crafty receivers like Lynn Swann, Jerry Rice and Steve Largent who had extraordinary hands and extraordinary attitudes, who were hard working and ran perfect routes with perfect body position, with the god-given talent of being to fool defenders with seemingly minimal effort.

Robert Woods is the Russell Wilson of this year’s draft. He has the most potential for greatness not only among the receivers but among all the players coming out this year.

It’s easy to forget just how highly rated Woods became before Marqise Lee burst onto the scene at USC. He exploded as a true freshman and started his sophomore year putting up crazy numbers. 17 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota, 14 catches for 255 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona, twelve catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns against Notre Dame. He was on fire.

Yet as Lee emerged as a true freshman in 2011, Woods’ role diminished. By 2012 he was no longer the focal point of the passing attack And while he still had some big games, it was Marqise Lee making the headlines and breaking the records.

When Woods declared for the 2013 NFL draft, he delivered the following knockout quote: “If the coaches wanted to keep me another year they would have probably got me the ball.”

He’s since claimed he was mis-quoted and I’m told even tweeted the reporter who wrote the story to make that point.

The point is, Marqise Lee is probably going to be a top-15 pick one day. He is insanely talented. That’s what people were saying about Woods. His stock appears to have fallen simply because USC had two studs for Matt Barkley to throw to instead of one. Let’s say Lee commits to another college team. If Woods continued his strong production from early 2011, he would’ve probably won a Biletnikoff by now. He’d be the superstar receiver in Southern Cal. And his stock would probably be much higher.

He ran two unofficial 4.44’s at the combine (later moved to a 4.5 officially). He’s not Tavon Austin, but he’s certainly faster than a lot of the other receivers at the combine. He looked good at 6-0 and 201lbs. In many ways he’s Percy Harvin-lite. I suspect Pete Carroll saw that comparison physically. He maybe saw a little Percy in Robert Woods.

If you look at mock drafts these days you’ll see Woods in the second or third round range. I still think he could and maybe should be a first round pick. And if you can get him any later than that, make the pick and feel good about it. Would I consider him at #56? Sure. Why not? Sometimes you just can’t look a gift-horse in the mouth. The Seahawks don’t need an army of receivers in the 5-10-6-1 range, but they do need as much talent as they can find. Woods will improve any roster.

Watch the first video below and the first thing that stands out to me is his competitive nature. The athleticism is there for everyone to see. He can run, he can make plays. Yet it’s the way he competes in the air that’s so impressive and may attract him to Seattle despite their depth at receiver.

0:21 – he makes a difficult grab over the middle in tight coverage, high pointing the ball and showing strong hands with a defender draped all over him.

2:06 – Barkley makes a high throw off his back foot. Woods knows he’s going to get drilled, but makes a fingertip grab. Despite a suplex from the UCLA defensive back, he somehow maintains possession of the ball.

2:40 – Woods lays out over the middle, diving at full stretch to make an athletic catch. Again, he risked his own health (defender also diving for it) to get the first down.

3:17 – This is one of the best touchdowns you’ll see from the 2012 season. I still don’t know how he completes this catch at the back of the end zone. He was well covered (so much so, the ref’s called pass interference) and showed such amazing concentration, hands and body control. Superb.

4:29 – Another example of high pointing the football, showing complete control through the catch and not hearing footsteps from the defensive back.

6:28 – Thrown over the middle. Woods is being tackled in mid-air before the ball even arrives. No problem. He still maintains concentration, corrals the football and makes a first down.

There are other throws in the videos below where you’ll see further evidence of a guy who plays with a spark. He competes to make difficult grabs. He’s not 6-4 and 220lbs, but he plays above his listed height and weight. I like the way he reacts after a catch. He’s pumped up. It’s an all-round attitude that’ll serve him well at the next level.

Can he be a #1 receiver? I believe he can. I think he can run any route, make any play. I think immediately he’ll be a threat as a kick returner while also fitting into a NFL offense. When a play breaks down he finds a way to give his quarterback an option — an underrated feature not often talked about with college players. Woods shows strong hands (not too much of a body catcher) and he can make plays away from his frame.

He’s not a flawless player by any means — he had frustrating days at USC with occasional mental errors. He lacks the truly elite size. While Harvin has shown the ability to run away from players with ease, Woods struggles to go up through the gears quickly. He won’t be a big time YAC threat or a great downfield receiver. He’s not a home run hitter.

However, he’s suddenly plummeting down draft boards because he’s unfashionable. He’s a USC guy (when did that become such a negative?) without prototype size. Whatever. He should be in the early second round discussion at worst. I’d happily spend a pick in the late first to get him on my team if I needed a receiver. At any stage beyond that the value seems too good to pass.

If he does fall as far as #56 (perhaps unrealistic) the Seahawks could be ready to pounce. By 2014 Sidney Rice’s contract might be untenable. We don’t know whether Golden Tate will be retained (he’s a free agent after 2013) or whether Doug Baldwin can continue to factor in the offense. Even despite the Harvin trade, it’s not ridiculous for Seattle to consider drafting another playmaking receiver. Planning ahead is going to be crucial for this team to stay ahead of the curve. The eventual savings made by replacing Rice, Zach Miller and others on the cheap will help keep some of the teams underpaid stars in Seattle.

I can see a future where Harvin and Woods are Russell Wilson’s answer to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. For those wondering, both Harrison and Wayne are 6-0. And yet they created a dynamic combination for Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. I see no reason why Harvin and Woods cannot do the same in Seattle. Frankly I doubt he does make it to #56. Personally, I hope he does. And I hope the Seahawks are ready to take advantage if it happens, even with needs elsewhere.

As Bobk333 said on Sunday, he might be this years answer to Russell Wilson. He might be the most underrated player in the 2013 draft.

Keeping the band together and the perfect storm

After a flurry of activity last week, Seahawks fans can be forgiven for wondering why things have gone quiet all of a sudden. They’ve come to expect excitement. And it’s been at least a few days since something exciting happened…

John Schneider spoke to John Clayton on Saturday with a few interesting nuggets. Above you’ll find the first hour of today’s newly titled ‘Brock Huard Show’ where they replay the interview with Schneider. I found this quote particularly interesting:

“There’s a plan in place here, and there’s several different phases to free agency, so we’ll see how that goes… But in the meantime, we’d really like to just kind of focus on our own guys, our younger players that we’ve drafted.”

It’s time to extend some contracts — and it’s not too difficult to work out who will benefit here.

Kam Chancellor is a free agent in 2014 and he’s set to earn just $1.3m this year. I suspect they’ll feel like he’s done more than enough as a former 5th round pick to warrant an extension. One of the key philosophies within this organisation appears to be a desire to look after players who prove their worth. Although Chancellor didn’t quite live up to his 2011 performance last year, he’s still part of arguably the best secondary in the NFL. I’m guessing they’ll want to keep the band together. Anyone second guessing any decision to extend Chancellor’s contract should click here.

Golden Tate is also a free agent in 2014 with a deal worth $880K. It’s a paltry figure for a player who should remain a key figure within Seattle’s offense (even despite the addition of Percy Harvin). Tate has developed a chemistry with Russell Wilson and the pair appear to be good friends. It’d make sense to tie him down to an extension to make life easier for the young star quarterback. He needs familiarity and playmaking quality. He needs guys who can make something out of nothing. Tate showed last year he can do all of these things. The juking touchdown’s against Chicago, Minnesota and Carolina, the long bomb against the Jets, ‘that’ play against the Packers. Seattle needs to keep this guy around.

They could also look into a possible extension for Earl Thomas, despite his contract expiring in 2015. He’s due $3.5m this year and $5.175m in 2014. A new deal wouldn’t necessarily inflate those figures greatly, but would add years to his contract and ensure he gets paid handsomely over the long term. Thomas has grown into a defensive leader and ended last year as possibly the leading safety in the NFL. He’s staying in Seattle beyond 2014, that isn’t in question. They won’t let him get away. The only question is when they start to talk about a new deal.

The Seahawks have structured the Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett contracts in a way that’ll make it easier to re-sign existing players on the roster. Avril’s deal is actually only worth $13m with incentives according to Brian McIntyre and his cap hit in 2013 is just $3.75m. Which is pretty astonishing. Michael Bennett’s cap hit in 2013 will be $4.8m. As a duo, they’re taking up slightly more room than Matt Flynn ($7.25m).

It basically means the Seahawks have $6.43m in cap space (per Clayton) available this year. The only reason they’d choose not to spend it is to push cap into 2014 to aid contract negotiations. So getting stuff done now really just saves time and rewards 2-3 players that really deserve their money.

The only stumbling block could be the mega-deal signed by Dashon Goldson in Tampa Bay worth $41.5m. He’ll earn $9m against the cap in 2013 and 2014, with earning potential of around $8m in 2015 and 2016. That’s probably the starting point for any new contract for Thomas, perhaps pushing this particular re-sign into next year. An expensive receiver market (Greg Jennings, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace) could also make for tricky talks with Tate — even if he’s a less established player.

Perhaps one of the reasons we haven’t seen any movement on Alan Branch (or any other defensive tackle or linebacker for that matter) is because they’re waiting to see where they’re at when negotiations for players like Chancellor, Tate and maybe Thomas are concluded. This appears to be an off-season based around priorities and opportunism. The #1 priority would’ve been to improve the pass rush. Job done. Priority #2 would’ve been to get an impact player with the #25 pick. Again — job done (just a month earlier than anyone imagined). Now the third priority might be keeping the core of this team together for the long haul.

It’s a priority that might drift on for a few years yet. As guys like Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright and eventually Russell Wilson become eligible for new deals, that will likely engulf any available spending money. We might not see the kind of calculated moves we saw this year for Avril and Bennett — and we’re very unlikely to see the big splash moves for guys like Sidney Rice and Zach Miller.

In fact you could probably make a case for 2013 being Seattle’s best chance to challenge for a Super Bowl. It’s not such a ridiculous suggestion — they’re in the perfect storm right now. They’ve added key free agents, they can still accommodate expensive veterans like Rice, they can make a big trade for Percy Harvin and they have a group of young Pro-Bowl/All-Pro starters earning a pittance (Wilson, Sherman etc). Soon those players won’t be earning a pittance any more and it’ll start to suffocate the cap. Players like Rice will move on with replacements needing to be found in the draft at a cheap price.

The 2013 Seahawks might be the most talented they’ll ever be. That doesn’t mean it’s championship or bust this year. Far from it. But they may never have such a balanced, youthful and loaded roster like this again. It’ll be almost impossible to maintain from a financial point of view. There will be future off-seasons where the needs extend beyond simply finding a big body to play defensive tackle and a WILL replacement for Leroy Hill. This is a unique year for this franchise.

In other news…

– The Seahawks were awarded two 7th round compensatory picks today. The addition of Matt Flynn and Jason Jones cancelled out the moves that saw John Carlson move to Minnesota and David Hawthorne head to New Orleans. Seattle gets the picks for losing Charlie Whitehurst and Atari Bigby. It means they have ten picks in the 2013 draft — 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7.

– It’s a big week for Star Lotulelei. He’s expected to participate in Utah’s pro-day on Wednesday and we should find out more about the heart condition that kept him out of the combine.

– I’d recommend reading this X’s & O’s piece from a Minnesota Vikings fan courtesy of Field Gulls on how Seattle can get the most out of Percy Harvin.

– You will notice there’s a new image at the top of the sidebar these days. Seahawks Draft Blog is now pleased to be an associate of the NFL’s official online store. I’ve never asked for any donations from you guys, but the blog does come with monthly running costs that come out of my own pocket every time. So all I ask is if you’ve enjoyed five years of this website and are planning on buying a new Percy Harvin jersey — do it through the link on this site and help me out along the way.

– Some people have asked about San Jose State tight end Ryan Otten. Here’s his tape vs BYU, Colorado State and Utah State:

Gavin Escobar might be a little too much like Anthony McCoy

I was a big fan of Anthony McCoy going into the 2010 draft. He never put up big numbers at USC, but the potential was clear to see. Without the character red flags and better production, he had first or second round talent. Of course, those are two pretty big issues. And that’s why he dropped to the sixth round.

Pete Carroll has taken only a handful of players he coached in college. He’s been quite selective overall (see: Lawrence Jackson, Lofa Tatupu) and its testament to McCoy’s potential despite the red flags that he was given a shot. None of the off-field concerns have re-emerged in Seattle so far. With Kellen Winslow failing to make the roster and Cameron Morrah landing on injured reserve, he ended up as the teams #2 tight end last year. And he did pretty well. He certainly managed to limit the drops — an issue that lingered the previous season. He scored three touchdowns for a team that didn’t pass all that much in 2012, with 291 yards.

In some ways you could say that was the next stage of a slow development process. He’s still only 25 and won’t turn 26 until December 28th. With Russell Wilson blossoming into a leading quarterback by the end of the year, any pass-catcher playing for this team is likely to benefit in the future. The addition of Percy Harvin could limit the amount of 2TE sets they use (it stands to reason they’ll want to put Harvin, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field more often than not) but it’s unlikely to be banished to the back of the playbook. McCoy, if he continues as the #2 tight end, could still play a role for this team.

Before the Harvin trade most people expected the Seahawks to explore the possibility of getting a ‘move’ tight end to act as a Joker in certain packages. This would obviously be a big, mobile target who can run a lot of receiver routes but allow the Seahawks to use a lot of big sets up front. They could still look for that guy and you could easily argue they need another tall receiver who can exploit single coverage and high point the football. They tried out Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow for a reason. I’m not sure they completely abandon that quest for height now that they’ve brought in an explosive guy like Harvin. Targeting a late round guy like Rutgers’ Mark Harrison makes sense.

Yet anyone they do bring in is probably going to need to offer something different. Just like Harvin, I suppose. When I watch Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State) I fear he might just be a little too similar to what they already have in McCoy.

Escobar is 6-6 while McCoy is 6-5. Both players ran in the 4.8’s pre-draft. There’s a weight difference of about 5lbs. And while either player is capable of making those difficult, eye catching grabs in traffic — they’re also capable of the occasional miss.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Escobar as a prospect. I expected him to run faster at the combine (I also expected McCoy to run faster than he did). And there are things he does a little better than McCoy. In his combine work out (see below) he looked a bit more fluid and mobile. I remember the play against St. Louis where McCoy was wide open, Wilson hits him downfield and he kind of awkwardly rumbled forward before being brought down. I think Escobar would’ve been a little sharper in that situation, turning up field and perhaps making more of the opportunity. He seems to keep his balance well for a big guy and he just looks smooth out there. I’d give Escobar the edge as a catcher too — he has soft hands and that’s a pretty handsome looking gauntlet drill in the video below:

I’m sure I read somewhere that John Schneider and his staff look at the roster and have a grading system for each player. Then they look at what’s available and try to see where the biggest possible upgrades can be made in free agency or a draft. When they look at the #2 tight end position, I’m sure they’ll feel it’s an area they can improve. McCoy isn’t Jimmy Graham after all. And I’m not sure you’d feel totally satisfied if he had to take over from Miller either temporarily or full time. But I’m not sure the areas where Escobar has the edge (balance, slightly better athlete, softer hands) will be enough to say, “we need to draft this guy in round two”. I doubt he’ll be available for the Seahawks beyond that range.

I think he’ll be at his best working on the second level where the height and reach becomes an advantage. He’ll be a good checkdown option and could develop into a reliable third down target. I do think Escobar has a shot to be an effective receiver who can find little soft zones and make key grabs. He should also be effective in the red zone at that size. Throw the ball up to him on a fade and there’s a good chance he’ll bring it down.

But if the Seahawks are going to draft a tight end early, they probably need to do more than offer a slight upgrade over Anthony McCoy. Both Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz ran receiver routes in college, they’ve both shown a similar ability to make grabs at the second level but they’ve also shown they can stretch the field a little bit more. Eifert is a better athlete, Ertz was Stanford’s leading receiver. Despite concerns over Ertz’s 4.7 at the combine, watching him run deep against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl told me all I need to know. I’m not convinced either player makes it to #56, but they’re probably going to have to if the Seahawks draft for this position in the second round.

Free agency has tailed off across the league this weekend despite a number of key names remaining available. Perhaps everyone is taking stock? The league meetings in Arizona are probably having an impact. It could kick start again this week but it’ll be interesting to see what (if any) moves Seattle go for. They only had two starters hitting free agency this year — Alan Branch and Leroy Hill. The defensive tackle and linebacker positions both remain unfilled. Amid the excitement of last week’s triple signing of Harvin, Avril and Bennett, we all talked about how open the draft would be for this team. Yet if those holes remain unfilled by late April —  it’s still hard to look beyond a defensive tackle and a linebacker with those two ‘day two’ picks.

It’ll be very interesting to see whether Branch in particular re-signs with the Seahawks. The noises so far (we’ve talked to his agent etc) don’t sound promising. It could be leverage. Or it could be an indication that they truly believe they can fill that hole in the draft. If they don’t go with Branch then a defensive tackle has to be the favourite at #56.

Below you’ll find Escobar’s tape against Boise State from 2012. The video at the top of the article shows two games versus Washington State and Michigan from 2011.

Denard Robinson – day two pick for Seattle?

I found it interesting this week that Tony Pauline suggested former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson was likely to be a day two pick:

Continue to hear a buzz being built around receiver Denard Robinson, especially after his performance today.  Though he just participated in drills (WR/RS/RB) scouts were impressed with his consistency and the fact he dropped no passes.  Looks like Robinson has secured a spot for himself in the draft’s second day.

He looked awkward at the Senior Bowl working as a receiver and taking returns. There was talk of a potential switch to cornerback instead. Robinson looked like a great athlete without a home.

And while there was all this talk of position changes I couldn’t help but wonder why nobody was considering him as a running back? After all, he’s 5-10 and 199lbs. He ran a 4.43 at the combine. In comparison, Chris Johnson came in at 5-11 and 186lbs at the combine in 2008. Robinson basically played as a glorified running back in college, throwing occasionally bust mostly excelling in the read option breaking off big gains.

4495. That’s how many yards he ran for in his time at Michigan at 6.2 yards a pop. He scored 42 rushing touchdowns too. Take away his rusty first season and he averaged well over eight yards per carry with +1200 yards a season.

He wouldn’t be the first quarterback from the Big 10 to switch to the backfield — Michael Robinson made a similar move. Yet this latest Robinson has the kind of speed and vision to act as a playmaker rather than a full back. It’d be a completely unconventional second or third round pick, but imagine this guy in the backfield, especially on read option plays? When you actually think about it, he could be one of the most dynamic prospective running backs in the class.

Forget asking him to try and cover elite receivers at corner or learn a full route tree — hand him the ball. Get him involved in screens and bubble’s. Put him in a position to make impact plays for chunk yardage. At Michigan he was a prospective Heisman candidate and explosive playmaker. The only thing that let him down really was the passing side of the game. Well, at running back you’re pretty much taking away that negative.

Part of me thinks this would be such a Seahawky move. It’d be labelled a titanic bust at the time and raise a few titters from the media. And a year later it could be considered a master-stroke. Draft the guy in round two or three, put him in there to spell Lynch and let him hit a few home runs. You could argue that’s why they traded for Percy Harvin, but I don’t expect he’ll be taking too many snaps in the backfield. How do you gameplan against an offense that has Wilson, Lynch and Robinson in the backfield, Harvin in the slot and Rice split out wide? Robinson could act as the third running back initially, taking over the snaps given up by Leon Washington. He could spell Harvin with some returns. But eventually you’re looking at him potentially becoming a dynamic option in the backfield.

In 2010 Carolina drafted Appalachian State quarterback Armanti Edwards in round three (after trading away the rights to their 2011 second rounder). They believed he had the skill and playmaking quality to transform into a receiver at the next level. It’s never really worked out, but if a team is willing to draft Edwards in that range — someone is going to give Denard Robinson a shot too. Whether it’s Seattle or not.

As the last week has shown, the Seahawks love to keep you guessing. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was a day two or three selection. Neither would it surprise me if he ended up becoming a truly dynamic change of pace back at the next level.

So what do you think?

Updated mock draft – 15th March

The Seahawks did exactly what they set out to do — improve the pass rush. Pete Carroll made it clear as soon as the 2012 season ended. That was the #1 priority. And while most of us assumed they’d find a solution in the draft, who would’ve guessed they’d find what they were looking for in free agency?

Here we are, days into the new league year, and there are high-profile players seemingly sat at home waiting to make even their first visit. The market is shot. And it’s worked to Seattle’s advantage. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were expected to get mega deals, but the offers never came in. So they signed modest contracts with a contender to enhance their earning potential in the future. It’s win-win.

Avril fills the prospective hole left by Chris Clemons while he recovers from an ACL. Bennett almost certainly replaces Jason Jones as a hybrid pass rusher. He’s like Jason Jones+ — he can play the nickel three technique position but he can pretty much line up anywhere. If the Seahawks have a two-score lead in the fourth quarter, why not switch to an orthodox four man front with Bennett and Avril playing the edge? I suspect we’ll see him all over the line. He’s more versatile than Jason Jones but essentially, he fills that void.

Imagine if Clemons makes a recovery and what kind of options will be open to Seattle then? Avril, Bennett, Clemons and Bruce Irvin. Scary.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has a great piece on how Dan Quinn might look to use all the weapons at his disposal. This could be a much more attack-minded defensive line going forward. Not so much because there’s going to be any great ideological changes — but with an explosive offense capable of building big leads, Quinn and Carroll will have more opportunities to attack.

The two key need areas remaining are defensive tackle and linebacker. I do think we’ll see further moves in free agency to address at least one of these needs (Alan Branch?). Releasing Ben Obomanu today brought some cap relief, so there’s room for a modest addition at least. I think we’ll see further moves on the way too. What it all means is the Seahawks can pretty much do whatever they want at #56 and I wanted to emphasise that in this week’s mock. I haven’t gone for a prospect who will fill one of the two key needs. I haven’t gone for a player I think they’ll definitely be monitoring. It’s a pick that kind of emphasises that anything could happen now. The roster is good enough to justify any move.

I went for Tennessee’s versatile lineman Dallas Thomas. He’s a player I’m very fond of — athletic, strong and he gave Jadeveon Clowney a run for his money in October (he’s one of the very few who did last season). He’s capable of playing guard or tackle. He has the kind of height Seattle has looked for on the offensive line (6-5) and he has good size (around 310lbs). At #56 I wondered who might be the pure best player available at a position we might not really consider. I came up with five names — Thomas, Tyler Wilson, Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton and Marcus Lattimore.

I’ve debated with several people on here the teams likely satisfaction with the depth and quality of their offensive line. So what better way to express that anything can happen than to pick a guard/tackle in this mock? Thomas is certainly good enough to warrant the choice. Is it likely? Maybe not. But the Seahawks can feel comfortable doing it if they wish.

I wouldn’t rule out any of the other names either. John Schneider worked on a Green Bay front office that drafted Brian Brohm in the late second round despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on the roster. If Carroll feels drafting Woods or Wheaton to spell Percy Harvin on kick off’s is the best move, so be it. And if they want to bank Marcus Lattimore for a redshirt year knowing what he’s capable of when healthy, why not?

I’m at the stage now where any player at any position really is on the table. Seattle has the quality and depth to do whatever they want. So sit back and enjoy.

There are several trades in the first round again this week. We know we’ll see moves and given the way free agency has played out, I felt obliged to include some deals again. I will go back to a conventional mock next week. Unless people prefer seeing trades?

Buffalo trades from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation — 2nd + 2014 second rounder)
The Bills just cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tarvaris Jackson is the next man up. Buddy Nix said it during the regular season — it’s time to go and get that quarterback. This front office has taken a first round prospect they’ve had come in for a visit for the last three years. It was revealed this week that Geno Smith will take a trip to Buffalo. The Jags are content to move down in this scenario.

San Diego trades from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation — 2nd round pick)
The Browns don’t have a second round pick so this makes some sense. The Chargers move up to get Eric Fisher. They have to come out of this draft with a left tackle.

Dallas trades from #18 to #14 with Carolina (estimated compensation — 3rd round pick)
Jerry Jones always seems to go after the guy he wants. He might see Jonathan Cooper as the answer to his problems at center. Cooper is good enough to make the switch. Trade up for a center? Again, Cooper is good enough.

Atlanta trades from #30 to #26 with Green Bay (estimated compensation — 4th round pick)
The Falcons, seeing Bjoern Werner fall, make a small move up the board to add a pass rusher that can start immediately.

San Francisco trades from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation — 4th + 5th round pick)
The 49ers can afford to make a move like this, they have enough picks. They go after Datone Jones here. Indy is happy to move down and target Travis Frederick to play center or guard.

Tampa Bay trades from #43 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
We saw discount moves at the end of round one in last years draft and we could see the same here. The Pats love a trade down and Tampa Bay moves up to guarantee they get a cornerback. They moved up to get Doug Martin last year and that worked out pretty well.

Arizona trades from #41 to #32 with Baltimore (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
The Cardinals move back into the first round to draft a quarterback.

Note — picks involved in a trade can be identified by ** after the player’s name.

There are no trades in round two. This thing is convoluted enough as it is. And in this projection, the Seahawks re-sign Alan Branch.

First round

#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
They can pretty much do whatever they want here, but Joeckel probably makes the most sense.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) **
Jumping above Oakland and fending off interest from Cleveland, the Bills make sure they get their guy.
#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
The Raiders have to start building a core of talent, they have nothing right now. This is a long, painful rebuild.
#4 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’d make a nice fit in Philly’s new 3-4 scheme as a five-technique.
#5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback prospect and a fine addition for Detroit if he goes here.
#6 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) **
I don’t think the Chargers will mess around hoping one of Fisher or Lane Johnson falls to #11.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They decide a tackle is best value here.
#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) **
Gus Bradley spent the last three years with Pete Carroll. So he’ll know Barkley’s worth.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball. A solid pick with no long term issues if there’s a coaching change.
#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
Someone’s going to fall in love with his upside.
#11 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) **
Ray Horton had Darnell Dockett in Arizona. Meet the second coming.
#12 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
In a draft like this, Austin going in the top-12 wouldn’t shock me at all.
#13 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Corner is a big need, but Lotulelei could be too good to pass here.
#14 Jonathan Cooper (G/C, North Carolina) **
Jerry Jones seems to really go after guys he likes. He might consider moving up for Cooper, who could play center for Dallas.
#15 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia)
Some teams will still be cautious, but if Jones’ back injury really isn’t as serious as feared — he should be a top-15 pick.
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
A good fit for player and team.
#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
He looks like a Steeler or a Raven in the making.
#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) **
The Panthers could use some cheap points on offense. This perhaps takes some of the pressure off Cam Newton.
#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
The Giants appear to be starting again on defense. That could mean going after an athletic pass rusher.
#20 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
They’d probably like to keep building their offensive line. Fluker could play guard or tackle.
#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Someone will take a shot on this guy in round one I think.
#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
Steven Jackson is off to Atlanta, so they’ll need another big, physical runner to win in the NFC West.
#23 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Minnesota)
He just seems like the kind of receiver Minnesota will go for. Consistent, reliable, driven. A nice partner for Greg Jennings.
#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) **
The 49ers surely don’t think Glenn Dorsey is the answer? They have enough picks to move up and do this.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?
#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) **
The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.
#27 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
This is probably a need-meets-value type pick.
#28 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
This secondary needs more than just Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie.
#29 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) **
The Buccs move up into the late first for the second year in a row.
#30 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) **
They move down and grab a pass-catcher. This is a need considering they’ve lost both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.
#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) **
Maybe Indy’s biggest need?
#32 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State) **
I think this would be ill-advised, but he’s done a lot to help his stock this off-season.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Philadelphia – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#38 Baltimore – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Jacksonville – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#42 Miami – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#43 New England – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#45 Cleveland – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#46 St. Louis – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M)
#47 Dallas – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#48 Pittsburgh – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#50 Chicago – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#51 Washington – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#52 Minnesota – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#57 Houston – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#58 Denver – Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#60 Atlanta – Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)

Seahawks sign Michael Bennett to one-year deal

Ladies and gentleman… here is your upgraded version of Jason Jones. This new model is healthier and recorded nine sacks last season.

Percy Harvin. Cliff Avril. Michael Bennett. With a draft to come. The Seahawks are playing free agency like a boss. They’re letting the market come to them then beating the crap out of it.

Cliff Avril doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a two-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

Michael Bennett doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a one-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

This isn’t the kind of reckless ‘dream team’ spending that created a mess in Philadelphia. This is cold, calculated domination. If these deals don’t work, they move on. The length of contract in both cases means neither player will have any impact on the teams ability to re-sign Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas or anyone else in the future.

This isn’t blowing $7m on inside linebackers (Miami), multi-millions on Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant (Cleveland), over-paying for Ricky Jean-Francois, Donald Thomas and Eric Walden (Indianapolis), or giving Mike Wallace $30m guaranteed (Miami again). This is patience and execution. This is opportunism. Playing the market, not being played by the market.

And it helps when you can attract these kind of deals because you already possess a young, vibrant roster.

There will be naysayers who claim you don’t win anything in March. That is true. But again, this isn’t a reckless splurge chasing a dream. Other teams ploughed into free agency and as a collective washed away over $200m in one day. The Seahawks instead traded for Harvin and solved their greatest need (pass rush) with two of the best available free agents at a knock down price. And what an incentive for Avril and Bennett to make the most of their time in the Pacific North West.

Seattle might not win the Super Bowl next season. But they’re positioning themselves for one hell of a run.

So far they’ve added one of the best playmakers in the league, replaced Chris Clemons (ACL) with a top-tier free agent and now upgraded the nickel three-technique position swapping Jason Jones for Michael Bennett. I’m half expecting a trade for Darrelle Revis tomorrow for a stick of gum and some old socks.

Cross off another need on your list. By my count that leaves two — starting defensive tackle and WILL. Will Alan Branch now re-sign? It makes a lot of sense. Take a WILL in the draft? Again, it makes a lot of sense.

This confirms Seattle’s trust in the role Jones played in last year and almost certainly suggests they’ll continue to use size at defensive tackle for the base defense. While a multitude of teams fret over finding a quarterback, or a cornerback, or a pass rusher, or all three… Seattle’s biggest need is merely one giant space eater.

And what about that pick at #56? They can pretty much do whatever they want now. Offense. Defense. Kicker.

Win Forever? They just might.

Michael Bennett’s nine sacks from 2012: Clip 1, Clip 2, Clip 3, Clip 4, Clip 5, Clip 6, Clip 7, Clip 8, Clip 9.

Meanwhile in other news today…

Tyrann Mathieu still worries me

He appeared on NFL AM this morning and conducted a slightly bizarre interview. It all started well enough and to be fair he took a bit of a grilling and opened up about his drug use. Yet there were some really worrying quotes that slipped out near the end.

He admitted he needed to get away from Louisiana after the incident that led to the end of his college career, and he travelled to stay with Patrick Peterson’s family in Florida. Yet when asked about the possibility of being drafted by New Orleans, this was his response: “They’d have to come up with a pretty good plan to keep me out of harms way.”

Excuse me?

He was then questioned about his four reps of the bench press at the combine (why even do it?) and he admitted it hadn’t been his focus going into the event. His focus had been “staying clean”. When pressed on this, he admitted he was still battling to keep away from drugs. That it was a “struggle” to stay away from marijuana. I find it pretty alarming that he’s still having issues there, to the point it seems to have impacted his combine preparation.

Near the end of the interview he said he’d been smoking weed from the age of 12-13 and was introduced to it by a family member. It just seems like this has been a part of his life for such a long time now, he’s really struggling to leave it behind. It’s ingrained into him. Almost like a compulsive smoker who struggles to quit because it’s become second nature.

You want to hear that he’s taken the wake-up call after his departure from LSU and kicked the drugs for good. You don’t want to hear he’s still battling those demons. A team isn’t going to want to babysit him through this struggle. He was a fun player to watch in college and I sincerely hope he can get his life and career back on track. But I can’t draft the guy on this evidence. If he can’t even be trusted to go back to Louisiana — his words — then I think you let somebody else deal with this. It’s a shame, but it is what it is.

Keenan Allen – what’s going on?

He didn’t work out at the combine. He was expected to work out at his pro-day today. But he didn’t. He didn’t do a single drill or work out.

This is starting to get worrying and it’s why I’ve had him as low as the late second round in previous mock drafts. You’re talking about a receiver who’s underdeveloped because the passing game in California was so inept. He basically spent a career running short digs and curls, constantly coming back to the quarterback. It’s hard to project how fast he is but I’m sceptical — he looks like a 4.5 guy to me which is unremarkable. And despite being billed as a big receiver, he’s one inch taller than DeAndre Hopkins with smaller hands and a smaller wingspan.

And now he’s a serious injury concern because this knee injury is just lingering and lingering. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he drops like a stone. It’ll take a pretty big leap of faith to see him go as early as some are projecting.

Seahawks sign Cliff Avril

Hands up who thought the Seahawks wouldn’t do all that much in free agency?

Days after making a blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have gone out and landed one of the premier free agents on the market. Detroit’s Cliff Avril was being linked with moves to Cleveland and Indianapolis early in the process, two 3-4 teams hunting for pass rushers who can work in space. Avril’s best fit was likely in the 4-3 and he’s en route to Seattle to pen a two year deal (according to ESPN).

Here’s what you need to know — he’s hitting his prime age (turns 27 in April) with 29 sacks and nine forced fumbles in the last three seasons. He’s 6-3 and 260lbs, so he’s in that LEO range. He ran a 4.51 at the combine in 2008 with a 1.52 split. That kind of speed will appeal to this front office. He’s a former third round pick coming out of Purdue.

Yes, he’s benefited a lot from the presence of Ndamukong Suh. This will be a big test to see if he can replicate those numbers without a dominating interior rusher. Yet the Lions thought enough of him to franchise him last year and offer a deal worth $10m per season over three years. He rejected those terms. It’s not clear yet how much he will earn in Seattle.

It’ll be interesting to see how much he’s earning, given Harvin’s new contract. The Seahawks suddenly look like a team chasing a title, sensing a window. They could’ve probably made a cheaper and more modest addition with John Abraham, Dwight Freeney and Osi Umenyiora all on the market. They would’ve all been stop-gaps, however. This stands to be a longer term move.

My initial thought is what does this mean for Chris Clemons? He’s taking up $8.1m in 2013 and might not even be able to make it onto the field. Avril has some similarities to Clemons, he’s kind of a younger version. Can they afford to carry both players plus Bruce Irvin? Perhaps a more relevant question is if they’re all healthy during the season, can they be creative to get all three involved? Could they use more orthodox 4-3 looks, with Avril and Clemons rushing the edge? I suspect if they can afford to keep all three players, they will do. This is a team that appears to be leaving nothing to chance.

It’s probably a nod to the importance of Clemons in Carroll’s three years with the team. They’ve relied almost exclusively on him to create pressure in base defense. Losing him was a bigger blow than maybe we initially considered. Today’s news suggests they almost felt obliged to be aggressive here. They couldn’t afford to go into the season without a proven starting edge rusher.

Carroll consistently mentioned the pass rush needed improving. This hopefully takes care of one aspect — replacing Clemons’ production if he can’t go. It won’t solve the issue alone, however. Seattle still needs to either replace the departed Jason Jones (who ironically has signed for Detroit today) or add a pure-three technique who can start and collapse the pocket.

The signing of Avril also probably ends the concept of Bruce Irvin as the ‘ideal LEO’. Avril’s only signing for two years, but Irvin is already in his mid-20’s. He appears destined to remain a specialist. And that’s fine. He’s at is best with his ears pinned back rushing the passer, not over thinking the play call and selling out to defend the run.

In terms of how this impacts the draft, it could open the door for a weakside linebacker to be drafted early (Khaseem Greene? Arthur Brown?). Perhaps a defensive tackle like John Jenkins or Brandon Williams, or a smaller (!!!) guy like Kawann Short or Sly Williams? Maybe they go offense again? I wouldn’t completely rule out the tight end position, particularly if one of the top three (Ertz, Eifert, Escobar) falls to #56.

Once again Carroll and Schneider keep everyone guessing. In an off-season where nobody really expected Seattle to be big spenders, they’ve been ferocious. In an off-season of surprises, who knows what the next move will be?

In other big free agency news today, Wes Welker made a stunning $12m move to Denver. Tom Brady is writing a letter to ask for his Ugg’s back as we speak. In response, the Patriots quickly snatched up Danny Amendola as a replacement on a $31m deal. He’s requested Ugg’s bearing his initials. And yeah, the Patriots were willing to pay Amendola more than Welker. Jake Long appears to be choosing between the Rams and Dolphins. Louis Delmas is also meeting with St. Louis, while it was revealed they’re paying Jared Cook an astonishing $16m guaranteed. San Francisco added Glenn Dorsey.

Wednesday is usually mock draft day. We’ll do it tomorrow instead. Today is Cliff Avril Wednesday.

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