Author: Rob Staton (Page 330 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Free agency live thread (and how it impacts the draft)

Percy Harvin is officially a Seahawk

Free agency as it happens, with reaction to how each (major) signing impacts the draft.

Andy Levitre (G, Buffalo) to Tennessee
This signing, and the aggressive nature of the Titans’ approach, suggests they won’t draft for the interior offensive line with the #10 pick. Having been linked with Jonathan Cooper (good fit for their zone blocking scheme), the addition of Levitre should allow Tennessee to look elsewhere. And I suspect one of their biggest priorities will be to add one of the best interior pass rushers, such as Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson. UPDATE — The deal is worth an incredible $46.8M over six years with $13M due in 2013 alone.

Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh) to Miami
The Dolphins know they need to surround Ryan Tannehill with talent. They re-signed Brian Hartline and will now add downfield speedster Mike Wallace. The contract is speculated to be hefty, so they’ll need an instant return. They could still add another target with the #12 pick (such as Cordarrelle Patterson) but what seems more likely is they’ll bolster their ranks with a second or third round prospect. Ryan Swope would be perfect, due to his familiarity with the playbook and quarterback. Miami has two second round picks due to the Vontae Davis trade with Indianapolis.

Paul Kruger (DE, Baltimore) to Cleveland
Wonder how this one will go down in Baltimore? Kruger switches teams within the AFC North for a reported $41m contract. The Browns have added a pass-rush partner for Jabaal Sheard and should be able to get their 3-4 defense rolling with Ray Horton on board. They have two quality outside linebackers now. I think they could still target a 3-4 end with pass rush ability, just as Horton used Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. Ziggy Ansah remains an option, but Richardson could be the second coming of Dockett.

Louis Vasquez (G, San Diego) to Denver
Another player moving within the same division, Vasquez jumps ship after only a middling attempt by the Chargers to keep him. This will ensure Peyton Manning stays well protected and the Broncos have a blossoming, young offensive line that should also set the stall for a productive run game. This shouldn’t impact the Broncos draft plans too much. They need to upgrade that secondary.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) is cut by Buffalo
They really wanted rid, huh? This saves only $450k but it goes to show that teams will take on any kind of saving to just move on from a non-starter. The Bills need a quarterback. And this adds weight to the suggestion they’ll trade up for ‘their guy’ in the draft (as noted in last week’s mock). Despite all the negative press around Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and co, teams will identify guys they like. And in some cases they’ll be aggressive to get them.

Martellus Bennett (TE, New York) to Chicago
The Bears were an option to go tight end at #20, but this gives them some security. Their main priority is to rebuild a rancid offensive line. Gabe Carimi was a bust waiting to happen in round one and the Bears tried to add Phil Loadholt before he re-signed in Minnesota. Jake Long is headed to St. Louis for his first visit, not Chicago. Does he get out of the Rams complex without a deal? If they go into the draft without a left tackle then moving up to get at the trio of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson seems a strong possibility. UPDATE — apparently they’re speaking to Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans).

Delanie Walker (TE, San Francisco) to Tennessee
Replacement for Jared Cook? I for one will be pleased to see Walker out of the NFC West. He always seemed to perform well against the Seahawks. Whether that same success translates to the AFC South, I’m not sure. The Niners found a niche role for him. They are a very creative offense. Tennessee’s is not.

Seattle’s deal for Percy Harvin is now complete!!!

Round-up
In terms of other news so far, Kansas City defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey is visiting with the 49ers. The Buccaneers are being strongly linked with a trade for Darrelle Revis. Nnamdi Asomugha and Antoine Winfield were cut today. The Packers are considered the clubhouse leaders to sign Steven Jackson. If you missed it earlier, Leon Washington was released by the Seahawks.

Pete Carroll speaks
He just did a spot on Sirius FM with Pat Kirwan, pulling out of a free agency meeting to conduct the interview. He described the deal for Percy Harvin as trading up in the draft to get the best receiver. He denied speculation that Sidney Rice could be cut, insisting that wasn’t an option. Carroll left the door open for Leon Washington to return to Seattle on reduced terms. He also insisted they will continue to compete during free agency and will be open to further deals.

And for those wondering…

Dannell Ellerbe (LB, Baltimore) to Miami
Wow — maybe the first big shock of the day? Baltimore is really feeling the effect of signing Joe Flacco to a mega-deal. First they lose Paul Kruger to a division rival, now Dannel Ellerbe heads to Miami for $35m. While the media wax lyrical about Anquan Boldin’s playoff performance, Ellerbe was just as much of a factor on defense. This loss will be felt. Whether he can continue to perform at a high level remains to be seen. The consolation for Baltimore is they’ll be stocked with compensatory picks in 2014. In terms of this years draft — after losing Kruger, Ellerbe and watching Ray Lewis retire, it surely makes linebacker a huge need at #32?

Jared Cook (TE, Tennessee) to St. Louis
The Rams make a big splash. It’ll be interesting to see the terms of the deal. Jeff Fisher knows the player from his time with the Titans. Cook is more potential than production so far, but it’s another weapon for Sam Bradford. They almost had to do something after Seattle’s move for Harvin and San Francisco’s move for Boldin. You need to keep up in this division. Considering the likely size of Cook’s contract, they better hope he delivers on all that promise. This allows the Rams to concentrate on receivers, offensive linemen and defensive backs in the draft. They could also target an outside linebacker. Some names to consider: Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.

Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans) to Chicago
Chicago had to act. They had to improve that line. At least now they have someone who can play tackle. Bushrod joins on a five-year deal. They won’t have to contemplate trading into the top ten. They have a bit more flexibility in the draft. It’s tough needing a franchise left tackle when you’re not drafting in the top ten. The Bears have signed a tight end and a tackle today. In the draft, that could help them improve at guard (Cooper?) or linebacker (Te’o? Minter?). UPDATE — Bushrod’s deal is worth $35.965M with nearly $18m guaranteed. I’m not a fan at that price tag.

Percy Harvin contract news starting to filter through

So that’s $14.5m fully guaranteed in 2013 alone, with $25m guaranteed in total. In comparison, Miami is paying Mike Wallace $30m in guarantees with $13-14m per year. The Seahawks are taking a significant cash hit in year one, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of that is bonus and how much is cap. Front loading with a signing bonus will probably make it easier to re-sign others in the future. If it takes up a lot of cap room, it hampers the teams ability to roll cap into 2014 without serious cuts. And it would also hurt their chances of any moderate free agency moves.

Sammie Lee Hill (DT, Detroit) to Tennessee
The Titans are reportedly close to adding another free agent in the form of a defensive tackle. Some had asked whether the Seahawks would show interest here, but it’s hard to know how good Lee Hill actually is. He didn’t feature all that much behind Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Tennessee addressed two big needs with a guard and a tackle. I still think Sheldon Richardson is a good fit at #10.

Philip Wheeler (LB, Oakland) to Miami
The Dolphins keep on rolling. First Mike Wallace, then Dannell Ellerbe and now Philip Wheeler. Jeff Ireland is going to town. I’m not sure if it’s such a great plan — how many teams fall flat on their faces after going crazy in free agency? Wheeler spent one year in Oakland after starting his pro-career in Indianapolis. The Dolphins still need a pass rusher and improvements to the secondary on defense. You can’t help but wonder what they’ll do next?

Isaac Sopoaga (DT, San Francisco) to Philadelphia
The Eagles, who are switching to a 3-4, needed a nose tackle. This fills a big need on a contract worth $12m with $5m guaranteed. What’s more, Philly is also bringing in fellow Niner Ricky Jean-Francois for a visit. San Francisco will have something like 14 draft picks next month, but they have a lot of needs on defense. They’ll need to hit on a few players at this rate. They already lost Delanie Walker today to Tennesse. They could lose Dashon Goldson. Defensive line, cornerback and safety are big needs for the Niners. Shame.

Darrius Heyward-Bey & Michael Huff are cut by Oakland
This isn’t a big surprise. The Raiders are basically looking at a multi-year rebuild. They didn’t have a pick in the first two days of the draft last year, despite introducing a new front office and coaching staff. This year, they don’t have a second rounder as part of the Carson Palmer trade. They have nothing — and I mean nothing — to build around. I sincerely hope the guys in charge get the time they need, but somehow I doubt it. The Raiders are a mess.

Desmond Bryant (DT, Oakland) to Cleveland
A lot of Seahawks fans wanted Desmond Bryant. I was less enthused. He seemed like one of those ‘nearer 30 than 20’ types who gets pumped up a lot but is probably already in his peak. He was a good enough run stopper but not a great pass rusher. And he (probably) just got paid by Cleveland within hours of free agency opening. The Seahawks, in my view, are better off re-signing Alan Branch to a modest deal. Keep the band together, man. Then use the #56 on a pass rusher. Whether that’s a three technique, a Jason Jones replacement or a LEO. In terms of impact on the draft, this increases the chances Oakland takes a Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson or Star Lotulelei at #3. They currently have no starting defensive tackles. It also possible weakens the chances of Cleveland adding to their front seven at #6. However, Ray Horton enjoyed the benefits of Darnell Dockett in Arizona. I wonder if he sees Richardson as a similar type of player? UPDATE — It’s a 5-year, $34m deal for Bryant in Cleveland, including $15m in guarantees. No way the Seahawks were paying that.

How does the Percy Harvin trade impact Seattle’s draft?

Note — I don’t usually post multiple articles in a day. I don’t want to flood you with material and most of the Percy Harvin-trade discussion is going on in the other article. If you want to check it out, it’s a piece on the pro’s and con’s of the trade. And yes, we’ll still be doing a live chat on day one of the draft this year!

So… now that there’s no first round pick any more, what are we going to talk about for the next few weeks?

First of all, let’s put the Harvin trade into context here. A few people have brought up — not unfairly — the point that Seattle’s greatest need (pass rush) is now unlikely to be resolved early in the draft. Here’s the thing though. Let’s assume Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd leave the board early next month. Let’s assume Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Ziggy Ansah, Datone Jones and others also disappear quickly. What are you left with?

Kawann Short? Sylvester Williams? Are they really going to solve this big need?

What about the other receivers? I’m a big fan of DeAndre Hopkins, but is he going to offer explosive playmaking skills? Can you rely on Keenan Allen or Justin Hunter to stay healthy and have an impact at the next level?

Yes the Seahawks need height at receiver and will now field a corps involving 5-10 Golden Tate, 5-10 Doug Baldwin and 5-11 Percy Harvin. But what was the alternative? Allen is 6-2. Hopkins is 6-1. Hunter is 6-4. Are any of those guys likely to have the kind of impact Harvin could have? Very, very unlikely.

I’ve agonised over the last 7-8 mock drafts I’ve done trying to find that ‘unique’ talent the Seahawks would probably look for and most of the time came out empty handed. It’s difficult to find defining difference makers in the late first round. It just is.

Simply put, Harvin was better than any of the options available. I’m sure that’s how Pete Carroll and John Schneider saw this. They looked at the class, looked at who might be available at #25. Then they decided Harvin was that much better than anyone else they could bring in.

Ask yourself who you’d rather have the day after the first round of the draft concludes — Percy Harvin, Kawann Short, Sly Williams or DeAndre Hopkins. I suspect most people will say Harvin. He’s the only player likely to scare the living the daylights out of the rest of the NFC West.

If anything, the trade makes the draft even more intriguing now. It’s a deep class and the Seahawks will still be able to get a good player at #56 (if they keep the pick). What’s more, we’ve kind of been given a direction now. They almost certainly won’t be drafting a receiver in round two. Given the need to address the defensive line and WILL position, it’s pretty safe to assume that’s what they’ll do in round two. Although you never know with this front office.

Of course, free agency could change things even further. For now, let’s look at some of the options at #56.

At defensive tackle, don’t rule out the possibility of Kawann Short or Sylvester Williams making it into the late second. Both players are slightly older (24 and 25 respectively during their rookie seasons) and lack the kind of explosive, difference making skills to guarantee an earlier selection. Right now I have both going in the top half of the second round. The depth at defensive tackle and possibility of ‘the big three’ going in the top-15 could force others down the board as demand lightens. Don’t be surprised if Jesse Williams, John Jenkins and Johnathan Hankins also suffer as a consequence. Hey, there’s every chance all five of these players go in the top-40. Just don’t be shocked if they last a little longer than expected.

Beyond that, Brandon Williams has shown enough athletic potential at 341lbs to combat his small-school upbringing. He’s intriguing. A little inexperienced in some cases and he might need to learn a few extra counters. Yet he moves unnaturally well for a guy at that size. USF’s Cory Grissom similarly impressed during the Senior Bowl work outs and the combine. Montori Hughes has a laundry list of character issues but there’s just something about him that looks right. Jordan Hill remains a favourite of ours on tape although he did look limited athletically in Indianapolis.

As much as improving the pass rush is important, I suspect the Seahawks want to keep size up front. Harvin makes the offense more explosive. They’re going to be leading in a lot of games anyway, which in turn helps the pass rush. Playing stout against the run early on could be more important than ever. It’s easier to ‘tee off’ on the pass rush with a healthy lead.

I suspect they’ll continue to lean on the ‘Jason Jones role’ as a situational pass rusher. Datone Jones appeared the most likely fit here but he’s unlikely to make it to round two. We’ve discussed Margus Hunt many times on the blog and he could be in play at #56. He’s not a polished, orthodox pass rusher. He’s still an athlete playing football. Yet physically he has a ton of upside and he kind of feels like the type of player this team would love to draft. It’s a little boom or bust, but you can see him working inside on third down and playing some edge too. His 4.6 speed and 6-8, 277lbs frame remains intriguing. He could be a first rounder based on upside or a sixth rounder based on the fact he’s a discus thrower chasing a football. His stock is impossible to predict.

In terms of defensive ends or LEO’s — Corey Lemonier’s combine performance makes it unlikely he will be available. He could be a mid-first rounder. Tank Carradine is having his tire’s pumped a little too much recently (in my view) but his ACL injury will push him back. Possibly to #56. It just depends on whether the Seahawks want another pass rusher coming off a serious injury.

Alex Okafor could be there in the late second — not an obvious LEO due to a lack of initial burst and speed, but he has excellent technical skills and hand use. John Simon is a favourite on this blog and could be an asset even in round two.

The best value might come at linebacker. If Khaseem Greene or Arthur Brown last into round two, don’t be surprised if Seattle makes a move in that direction.

Other players who could be on the radar later: Armonty Bryant (Kip’s favourite, LEO), Quinton Dial (DT or five technique depth), Abry Jones (DT), Michael Buchanan (LEO), Lavar Edwards (Jason Jones), Travis Long (LEO), Devin Taylor (LEO or Jason Jones), Cornelius Washington (LEO), Everett Dawkins (DT), Josh Boyd (DT), Jamie Collins (LEO or WILL), Brandon Jenkins (LEO).

There’s always the chance for further trades too, be it up or down the board. We might not have much to get excited about on day one of the draft this year, but there’s plenty to discuss over the next few weeks. Does anyone really expect it’ll be a boring draft with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in control? I didn’t think so.

Percy Harvin links

Danny O’Neil reports that the 2014 pick heading to Minnesota is likely to be a 3rd rounder. For a team that found a franchise quarterback in that range, they sure like to trade away third round picks.

Jason Cole writes that Harvin’s lack of trust in Christian Ponder help drive his desire for a trade. “Percy Harvin wanted two things this offseason: Money and a better quarterback.”

Mike Sando says the NFC West would rather prepare for the #25 pick in the 2013 draft than face Percy Harvin: “Harvin… is a threat to score as a receiver, runner and kickoff returner. Harvin has 20 touchdowns as a receiver, four as a runner and five as a kick returner.”

ESPN has quotes from Golden Tate on the news of the trade. Tate: “The Seahawks are trying to do whatever they think is necessary to put together a Super Bowl quality team. If this is one of the steps they think works to accomplish that, then that’s their choice. I don’t think it will impact any of our work habits. We are still going to grind and let the cards play out the way that they will.”

Marc Sessler notes the size of the story: “It’s a stunning move that will strengthen an already powerful Seahawks roster with a premier wide receiver and return threat, while simultaneously ending Harvin’s often rocky four-year tenure in Minnesota. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for Vikings fans. Harvin was the Vikings’ most exciting player, with the ability to scorch defenses as a pass-catcher and pick up devastating chunks of yardage in open space.”

Gregg Rosenthal believes it’s a great move by the Seahawks: “Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider have been nothing if not bold since arriving Seattle three years ago to re-make the Seahawks. They think different. They build different. They aren’t afraid to take chances.”

Brock and Salk react to the news today with Tim Hasselbeck and Adam Schefter.

Adrian Peterson isn’t happy:

In other news, the 49ers traded a 6th round pick for Anquan Boldin’s four regular season touchdowns.

Seahawks trade for Percy Harvin

So, who expected to see this today?

The Seahawks will acquire Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings for the #25 pick in 2013, a seventh rounder this year and a mid-round pick in 2014. Life is never dull with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in town.

Firstly, Harvin is a tremendous playmaker. Without doubt one of the best in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell worked with him in Minnesota for two years (his rookie season in 2009 and the following year). Pete Carroll also tried to recruit Harvin for USC in 2005. He met with the Gators and the Trojans and nobody else. He chose Florida, which isn’t a total shock given he’s an east coast guy (he’s originally from Virginia). Basically, they aren’t making this deal without deep inside knowledge in the player.

You can put him anywhere on the field and he’ll make plays. Receiver, runner, kick returns. He’s a nightmare to match-up against. If the Seahawks want to persist with the read-option within their offense, Harvin can be effective there too. He certainly was for the Gators in college. Speed, power, game-changing skills. He has the works.

Carroll and Schneider want unique players. Difference makers. Playmakers on both sides of the ball that possess rare qualities that you just don’t find every year in the draft. Harvin doesn’t just fit the bill, he’s the poster boy. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in the league. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in this draft class. That’s why he fits in Seattle.

Then there’s the other side of Percy Harvin…

His fall out with Minnesota was ugly. Very ugly. It was reported he clashed with Head Coach Leslie Frazier in front of other staff members and players. He was seen visibly screaming at his coach in the Vikings defeat to Seattle in November for no obvious reason. ESPN’s Tom Pelissero reported on the fall-out at the end of the season:

TV cameras caught Harvin waving his arms and screaming at Frazier on the sideline over his frustration with the Vikings’ struggling offense.

According to four NFL sources, Harvin and Frazier had another heated exchange weeks later in front of some players and staff members, fueling speculation about a deteriorating relationship that could spell the end of Harvin’s four seasons in Minnesota.

Details of that altercation remain clouded, though it is believed to have begun in the training room at the Vikings’ facility.

CBS Minnesota offered this take:

Multiple sources tell Mike Max that Harvin had an embarrassing tirade directed toward Frasier, disrespecting the coach during the season when Harvin was sidelined with an injured ankle.

Teammates were present, and Max was told that is when Harvin left the team and was put on injured reserve.

Sources say teammates were disappointed in Harvin’s actions and the organization has moved toward less tolerance for that behavior.

Harvin apparently had a similar incident when Childress coached the team.

The Vikings will try to trade him, Max reports, as Harvin does have market value.

It was quite a bizarre situation given Minnesota’s successful season where they made the playoffs. Really, what was there to complain about?

Harvin’s had two Head Coaches in his pro-career and fallen out with both. Will Carroll be the hat trick?

There’s also a substantial injury history.

In 2009 and 2010 he suffered severe problems with migraine’s and was constantly listed on the injury report as a consequence. He’s also had ankle, hamstring, hip, shoulder and finger injuries. In 2009 he was listed as questionable seven times. He was on the injury report eight times in 2010, seven times in 2011 and five times in 2012 before being placed on injured reserve (missing Minnesota’s last five games). He’s competitive for his size when he’s actually on the field, but he’s also been quite brittle.

According to Jason Cole, Harvin is also targeting ‘Calvin Johnson’ type money:

While the Vikings and Harvin’s agent, Joel Segal, have yet to exchange contract proposals, it’s believed that Harvin wants money closer to what Calvin Johnson got from Detroit in 2012 (eight years, $132 million) than to Jackson or Bowe. That’s an average of $16.5 million per year compared to a little more than $11 million for Jackson and Bowe. As one person put it about Harvin, he considers himself a “special” player and executives around the league have fed that attitude by telling people close to him how difficult it is to cover Harvin.

The Seahawks will have the framework for a new deal agreed before any trade is completed. However, this will not be cheap. And it makes you wonder if other players — like Sidney Rice ($9.7m cap hit) or Zach Miller ($11m cap hit) — will be asked to re-work their deals given their substantial salaries in 2013. Cutting Rice would potentially save $6m in cap money — does that become an option? What about releasing Leon Washington (due $2.875m) given Harvin’s quality as a return-man? And surely moving Matt Flynn now becomes even more of a priority?

Then there’s this article by Jeremy Fowler to consider, where he notes other concerns about Harvin:

Percy Harvin “epitomized the climate” of player entitlement under coach Urban Meyer at the University of Florida, according to a Sporting News report posted online Monday, April 9.

Harvin, who played for the Gators from 2006-08, reportedly was one of three players who missed the 2008 season opener after allegedly failing drug tests for marijuana – penalties dictated by university policy – although Meyer publicly blamed an injury for Harvin’s absence.

Harvin also refused to run stadium steps with the rest of the team during offseason conditioning before the 2007 season, according to the Sporting News, and once allegedly threw wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales to the ground by his neck.

Harvin reportedly wasn’t punished for either of those incidents, according to the report, and was treated differently as a member of Meyer’s “Circle of Trust.”

Harvin told strength and conditioning coaches while boycotting stadium runs, “this (expletive) ends now,” according to the report, and the team played basketball as conditioning the next day.

It makes you wonder how this undoubtedly talented but also flawed player will respond to a big new contract. Will this play to Harvin’s entitled nature? Or will he be able to buy into Carroll’s ‘all-in’ philosophy and knuckle down? He’s not managed a 1000-yard season in his career yet, which is incredible given his talent-level. He needs to stay healthy and stay away from drama. If he can do that, he’ll be among the league’s best.

Harvin’s on-field talents will give Russell Wilson a truly dynamic receiver to target. Off the field though, will he be willing to give up time to work with such an intense character like Wilson, who’s a stickler for detail and putting in the hours?

Despite all the perceived negatives both Carroll and Darrell Bevell know the guy and aren’t walking into this blindfolded. They’re acquiring a player who doesn’t even turn 25 until May. And the fact is nobody is going to look forward to facing Wilson, Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and co.

Finally, what does this trade say about the draft? The Seahawks perhaps feel Harvin is too good to pass up. It could also be a review of what’s available in the late first round range. If they feel nobody gets close to Harvin’s level of talent (and they don’t) you can understand the deal. However, there’s little chance now for Seattle to attack their pass rush problems early. The options at #56 won’t be great. So while the offense continues to improve, there will be some concern that the biggest hole within the team will remain unresolved. Signing Harvin to a big contract won’t leave much room to make many other moves in free agency after all.

Yet think of it like this. Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd were way out of range. The top pass rushers will be long gone too, perhaps even Datone Jones. So if you’re looking at Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams or Percy Harvin, this is a no-brainer, right? Over the next few days we’ll focus on options with the #56 pick, which presumably will be spent on a defensive player (if they keep the pick).

There’s a lot to get excited about as you’ll see in the video below. It’ll make day one of the draft that little bit less exciting, but the Seahawks just acquired one of the best playmakers in the league. If they can keep him in tow, this could be a defining day for the franchise. It’s a big ‘if’ though.

What do you make of the trade? Let us know in the comments section and vote in the poll below.


Sunday draft notes

Good news for Jarvis Jones today it seems, but will the NFL agree?

Better news for Jarvis Jones

We expected to have a better idea of Jarvis Jones’ stenosis issue after the combine, but there were no leaked medical reports to confirm or deny what USC had feared back in 2009. So we were left to speculate. Clearly teams will be wary of anything to do with stenosis, particularly if there are life threatening consequences. Yet Jones wasn’t only cleared to play by Georgia, he also had two relatively healthy seasons in the SEC.

Today, Dan Pompei provided the first piece of seemingly valid information on this matter. And it appears to be good news for Jarvis Jones:

Jones’ neck injury is starting to look like it might be a non-issue on draft day, and there is little chance he will fall out of the top 10. In a medical report that was sent to NFL teams, leading orthopedist Craig Brigham refutes that Jones ever had a significant spinal cord contusion. When he was at Southern Cal, the pass rusher was diagnosed with one, and Southern Cal did not allow him to play in 2010. Jones transferred to Georgia and played two seasons with no problems. Brigham concluded that Jones either had a very mild incident of spinal cord concussion or merely a stinger that has long since resolved. Even if another similar injury occurred, Brigham concluded it would not be a career ending issue. After recently examining Jones, Brigham concluded, “Jarvis is cleared to play without restriction.”

Of course, this is only one man’s take. USC and Georgia clearly didn’t share the same opinion on his future. There’s a chance other experts (including team doctors) will diagnose the situation differently than Craig Brigham.

If you want to assume they won’t, then Jones is back in contention to be a top-15 pick. This isn’t a defining report that renders the issue a non-factor. Even so, it only takes one team to make a similar assessment to ensure he is an early pick next month.

Cullen Jenkins update

Anyone hoping he’d be signing in Seattle will be disappointed…


Eddie Lacy still injured

According to Adam Schefter, Lacy will not be able to work out at Alabama’s pro-day on March 13th. He missed the combine in February due to a hamstring problem. He will conduct an individual work out at some point but no date has been set.

It’s not been a great off-season for Lacy so far. He turned up at Indianapolis 11lbs heavier than his listed playing weight, then admitted he’d not necessarily kept in shape since the Notre Dame game.

He ended the season on fire, making the most of Alabama’s top-tier offensive line. For teams like St. Louis that’ll be looking for a power back, he makes some sense even in round one. Yet if the injury issues linger, if he can’t work out before the draft and if teams are concerned about his conditioning, he could easily drop. Plenty of teams find viable runner’s later in the draft. And while there’s always an Alfred Morris or Arian Foster to be had, a bad off-season can have an impact.

Personally, I’d like to avoid facing Lacy twice a season. The Rams are going to need a productive back to compete with Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West. Lacy fits the bill, but is he working his way out of first round consideration?

Revisionist history

Bucky Brooks – March 2013. He was asked where Geno Smith would rank among the 2011 quarterbacks (Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder):

“I like him better than I liked Jake Locker. I think I liked him a little more than I liked Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert I wasn’t a big fan of. ”

Bucky Brooks – March 2011. He had Gabbert at #5 in his mock draft:

“You (Arizona) better take Blaine Gabbert at five. Big, athletic quarterback. Strong arm. Can make all the throws. Ken Whisenhunt will build an offense around his skills and I think the Arizona Cardinals offense will get back on track.”

Kawann Short unimpressive against Wisconsin

Watching a defensive lineman competing against Wisconsin is always a good benchmark. The Badgers consistently churn out big, aggressive, dominating run blockers who do a decent job protecting the quarterback.

It stands to reason that any defensive tackle drafted by the Seahawks is going to need to be able to defend the run. They have to be stout. While the teams biggest priority is to improve the pass rush, they can’t afford to walk into two games against the Niners with a weak interior defensive line. For all of Colin Kaepernick’s athletic ability outside of the hash marks, they’re still a power running team.

Purdue’s Kawann Short is a decent pass rusher, with good finishing speed and a decent swim move. He exploits gaps and works well into the backfield. At the Senior Bowl he was probably the most productive defensive lineman on the field after Ziggy Ansah.

Yet against Wisconsin (see below) I think he struggled. And that’s not a particularly good sign for anyone hoping to see Short in the Pacific North West.

Saturday draft notes

Ryan Swope -- Set for Seattle in the second?

Cutting through the hype

This time of year is good for two things — hype and reality.

On the one hand, the combine is fresh in the memory and there’s a new batch of players to overrate. If you ran well, jumped well or interviewed well in Indianapolis, the chances are you’ve ‘boosted’ your stock. Congratulations.

In some cases it’s a genuine boost. In others it’s worthless deception. Admittedly some players are just that good physically that they really do save their best football for the NFL. Others find out that running and jumping well in shorts doesn’t automatically make you a superstar.

Hype also works the other way too. If you’re not quite the brilliant athlete everyone was hoping, you can sink like a stone.

We also discover a few nuggets of truth during the months of February and March. There are leaks in the media where you discover certain players are higher on boards than expected. Sharrif Floyd is a great example. On tape, he had a pretty good year. Most people saw him as a first or second round pick. And yet here we are, a few weeks later, and he could go top five. Whether the tape was deceiving or not, it appears to be true that he’s a favourite among scouts and GM’s. Only time will tell if it’s reasonable to put him among this years elite. I’m sceptical personally. Because while he has a fantastic back story and a lot of talent, he doesn’t exactly live in the backfield, he has short arms, he’s not a sensational athlete and he’s not an edgy, penetrative pass rusher like Sheldon Richardson.

Even so, there are a few players out there who are maybe having their tires pumped up a little too much, even more than Floyd…

Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) — he ran well at the combine and flashed a lot of physical talent. Ansah also put in a MVP performance in the Senior Bowl. Suddenly everyone from Daniel Jeremiah to Todd McShay is stepping up to praise this apparent top-10 lock. Yet it’s easy to forget how inexperienced he looked this season, often struggling to have any impact as an edge rusher. He ended 2012 with just 4.5 sacks. During the Senior Bowl workouts he appeared lost — like he’d only put pads on for the first time that week. In terms of pure potential, there’s a lot to like here. But he’s not even close to the level Jason Pierre-Paul was at when he turned pro, which is saying something. Expecting him to have an instant impact would be optimistic. And yet he turns 24 in May. When you draft a pass rusher in the top ten you kind of want a decent return quickly. Will we see that from Ansah? In a matter of weeks he’s gone from solid first rounder who could make it to Seattle at #25 to possible top-five pick. Perhaps it’s time to put on the brakes?

Matt Barkley (QB, USC) — last year people were lining up to call him a top-ten pick. I suspect if he had declared, Mike Holmgren would’ve made him the third quarterback to leave the board within the top five picks of the 2012 draft. He’d beaten Oregon in impressive fashion, been the leader of a team facing three difficult seasons and looked so ready for the pro’s. Yet he didn’t run to the NFL and instead opted for one more year in college — to try and achieve that elusive BCS Bowl appearance and a PAC-12 title. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out as planned. USC bombed, the defense collapsed, the offensive line couldn’t block four scarecrows and Barkley’s game suffered as a consequence. And now people are lining up to say he’s a fourth round pick. At the same time, E.J. Manuel — who struggled to convince anyone he was a competent passer at Florida State — is being promoted as a possible first round pick because he runs well and can throw further than most people. I’ll take the accurate, poised, technically gifted quarterback every time. But that’s just me.

If anyone was wondering where the Greg Cosell ‘fourth round grade’ quotes came from by the way, here you go. Cosell states he’s seen a lot of NFL tape and therefore “knows” what works in the NFL. It might be worth “knowing” that a guy who is nearly 6-3 is not “a little short”. Or that he once said this: “The most overlooked characteristic when discussing quarterbacks is accuracy.”

For what it’s worth, Cosell likes Zac Dysert and Matt Scott this year. He compares Scott favourably to Russell Wilson, a player he didn’t like last year — comparing him to Seneca Wallace. He also thought Ryan Lindley made “the most ‘wow’ throws of any quarterback in the draft” last year. Yes, including Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. He also listed Lindley as the most intriguing quarterback from the 2012 class. I doubt that’ll get repeated any time soon by the cult of Cosell.

Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) — don’t get me wrong, I think Fisher is a fine pro-prospect. Yet it’s funny how impressions change when one big guy runs slightly faster than another. Luke Joeckel just had one of the best seasons you could wish to see from a left tackle. It helps that he was blocking for one of college football’s more elusive quarterbacks. It further helps that he was flanked by perhaps an equally talented right tackle in Jake Matthews. However, Joeckel shut out top-class opponents most weeks in the SEC. He was flawless. What’s more, it comes so naturally to him. You wouldn’t think he looks like an elite tackle based on his appearance. His arms lacks definition, he’s not a brilliant athlete. He’s just a fantastic football player. But shortly after the combine, Fisher was ahead according to many people. Why? Because he ran faster. Because he moved faster in drills. Like that even matters. Whoever takes Fisher will get a good player. Whoever takes Joeckel will probably get a better one.

Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) — depending on who you ask, Mingo is a possible top-ten pick. In fairness others have countered that (Mayock, Jeremiah) by giving him a more realistic grade in the 25-40 range. Indeed Mayock continues to list Mingo as only the third best 3-4 linebacker in this class. I watched an awful lot of LSU in 2011 and 2012. I recently went back and watched another seven games just to focus on Mingo, suspecting he could be an option for Seattle if he drops. He just wasn’t that effective. He collected a measly 4.5 sacks this season despite featuring with a number of talented team mates. He’d flash every now and again. He started the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson on fire. Then he stopped. He disappeared. Physically he looks like the perfect LEO — tall, lean and fast. He’s a great athlete. Yet he’s ineffective. A bright combine performance has seemingly boosted his stock, but when you weigh just over 240lbs and speed is your main weapon — you should be doing well in Indianapolis. I think his ceiling will be New Orleans at #15.

Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) — He ran faster, jumped higher and basically did everything better than most receivers at the combine. Yet here are a few things that are also important. Catching the football consistently. Competing for the football in the air. Making a tough grab over the middle on fourth down in double coverage to extend a game winning drive. DeAndre Hopkins didn’t run in the 4.4’s, but he did everything else on tape that you want to see from a leading receiver. Unfortunately he’s only an average-to-good athlete. Yet during the combine drills involving routes and catching, Hopkins looked crisp, confident and better than anyone else on the field. Hunter has plenty of upside and didn’t get much help from Tyler Bray. He was also battling back from a nasty ACL injury in 2011. But if you asked me who I want my second year quarterback throwing to in a big game next year — I’ll say Hopkins over Hunter. Despite the lack of 4.4 speed.

Pat Kirwan dropping hints

The relationship between Kirwan and Pete Carroll is a little overplayed. While they have a previous working relationship that appears to still be going strong, it’s not like Kirwan has dropped any defining nuggets of information about Seattle’s draft plans in the last three years. I suspect he doesn’t ask for lots of inside information, so he never gets lied to. And even if he does get info from time to time, I imagine out of respect he wouldn’t put it out there for public consumption.

Having said that, I’ve noticed a couple of things that raised an eyebrow recently.

You’ll find a video at the top of this CBS article where Kirwan is interviewed for a stock up/down piece. When discussing Florida State’s Bjoern Werner, he makes the following remark:

“One of the coaches said to me, ‘this is what I think of Werner… he’s a B+ player who’s going to be a B+ player for ten years. That’s a good thing, he’ll start all the time. But I’m looking for a guy with a special trait’. I don’t Werner demonstrated that to many of the people that were watching him.”

The words, “I’m looking for a guy with a special trait” are so Pete Carroll it almost seems too likely to be him. Yet there’s every chance it was him. The Seahawks are looking for a defensive lineman after all. And they look for special qualities in all their drafted players.

Even if this coach isn’t Carroll or another member of Seattle’s staff, I suspect they’ll share a similar opinion on Werner. They probably want more. They might be willing to take him if he’s there at #25. But the chances are they’ll hit for the fences with another guy.

Following on from that, here’s what Kirwan said during a radio spot on Friday:

It’s a reminder that when we’re looking at the prospects out there, we need to look for those rare qualities. It doesn’t have to be a player that is so much faster than another, or taller. Or bigger. They just have to have something special about them.

Seattle didn’t draft James Carpenter off the back of a combine performance, they drafted him because he was the left tackle for the best running team in college and he dominated the SEC. They needed to boost the running game. They drafted Earl Thomas because he’s rangy and had a ridiculous eight interceptions as a redshirt sophomore. They needed turnovers. They drafted Bruce Irvin because he’s fast and had incredible production for two years at WVU. They needed a pass rusher. And they still do.  So focus the minds. Look for a blend of athleticism and production. Difference makers. Keep running through those TFL lists and look for the guys who also performed well at the combine or at their pro-day. And be prepared for a surprise come April. Who’d be shocked if Margus Hunt was the pick in the end? I wouldn’t be.

Hartline signing good news for Seattle?

I have a hunch — and that’s all it is — that the Seahawks will be infatuated with Ryan Swope. Everything about him says John Schneider. Personality, production, speed. He’s got that ’tilt the field’ aspect to his game where to look at him, he doesn’t look like anything special. Yet he is. In fact he’s very special.

I was watching some Texas A&M tape last night and watched one play where Johnny Manziel was scrambling around. Swope cut off his route noting his quarterback was in trouble, found a soft zone underneath, tracked to the right and then set off downfield. I counted three times where he was open and should’ve received the football. Manziel didn’t throw it. Russell Wilson probably would’ve done. Swope worked that opening.

That level of improvisation interests me in a big way, because I think it’s one of the things Golden Tate and Sidney Rice struggle with. They round off a lot of routes and don’t often come back to the ball. Swope has dealt with two very athletic quarterbacks so far that frequently left the pocket. And the guy knows exactly what he needs to do in that situation. The thought of having him as a target while Wilson does his Frank Tarkenton thing is pretty exciting. Throw in impressive 4.34 speed, consistent hands and the ability to get open and he just sounds like another classic Schneider find.

One other thing that is crucial for any prospective Seahawks receiver — blocking. This remains a power running offense. The receivers are expected to get involved. Watch the tape against Auburn and Mississippi State from 2012 and make your own mind up on his blocking ability. I’d say it’s superb, vastly underrated and should be classified as a major positive if you’re hoping he lands in Seattle.

Before the Dolphins signed Brian Hartline to a 5-year $31m contract, I suspected Miami might take him with one of their second round picks. They have Swope’s old college coach running the offense and his former team mate at quarterback. They could still take him in round two. But with reported interest in Mike Wallace plus the possibility they could still go receiver at #12 (Cordarrelle Patterson?), how much do they want to spend on the position?

Swope’s concussion problems that emerged this week are a slight concern. Based on some quick research, it appears he had four suspected concussions during his time at Texas A&M although he never missed a game. Given the extreme focus on safety in the NFL, he might find life slightly easier. Yet one of the problems with improvising receivers who are fearless over the middle of the field is they’re likely to take hits. So it’s something teams will have to check out.

If he makes it to #56, he could be Seattle’s guy. He isn’t the big, tall 6-4 type they’d ideally like to find. He’s only 6-1. Yet I think in terms of value, he’ll be too tough to pass. And you don’t have to be tall to be a #1 receiver. You just need to get open, make plays and bail out your quarterback from time to time. Wilson-to-Swope could be an unlikely but brilliant combination.

Tony Pauline had this to say about Swope following his pro-day yesterday: “By all accounts Swope dazzled during pass catching drills. He ran crisp routes and caught everything thrown in his direction. His position work today along with his combine performance has Swope heading into the late part of round two.”

Mike Mayock has a short report on Swope from the Texas A&M pro-day. He calls him a second or third round pick.

If you haven’t seen it yet, check out this ‘trick shot’ video Swope made as part of his campaign to be on the cover of NCAA ’14.

Pining over Richardson

Sheldon Richardson remains ‘the guy’ for me. Exactly what Seattle needs at defensive tackle. And probably what Seattle isn’t going to get unfortunately because he’s just too good. Yet there are almost weekly teases at the moment to get your hopes up. Such as this:

This:

This:

And this:

We can but dream.

Free agency set to get under way… kind of

Will the Seahawks be talking to this man's representatives at midnight tonight?

Technically, free agency begins on March 12th. However, the NFL has decided that as of midnight tonight, teams can legally ‘tap up’ players until Tuesday. No visits, no officially concluded deals. Just a lot of talking with agents and deals ‘in principle’.

Mike Florio explains…

Now that the NFL is launching a three-day legal tampering window, the key term will be “agreement in principle.” Even though contracts can’t be signed until Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET, non-binding deals can be struck — like the non-binding arrangement between the 49ers and Chiefs to trade Alex Smith once the new league year begins.

With the league trying to create an NCAA-style “signing day,” it’s safe to say teams will be discouraged from announcing agreements in principle with players who can’t be signed until Tuesday. Still, it’s inevitable that word of agreements in principle will leak; even if teams don’t issue a press release, they’ll be wise to get the word out, so that other teams will back off.

It’s a bit of a bizarre situation. We’ll get all the speculation, all the talking. By Tuesday we’ll have a good idea of what’s going to go down. And yet nothing will be finalised over the weekend. It sounds a bit like a kid finding his Christmas presents before the big day.

Of course, there’s always a chance for some of this…

So what about the Seahawks? They’ve already visited with Cullen Jenkins and John Abraham. They’ve contacted the representatives of Charles Woodson. All three can be signed at any point as they were released from their current contracts.

I suspect the Seahawks will seriously consider adding a veteran pass rusher. With Abraham, Osi Umenyiora and Dwight Freeney on the market, there are options out there. Cliff Avril and Paul Kruger will end up signing big bucks elsewhere. If nobody offers obscene money to the other three, they become realistic options for the Seahawks.

Then I think it’ll be about value. Who made it through the first stage of free agency when the big money was spent? Who is willing to consider a cheaper deal? Who suddenly sees the opportunity to join a contender as a big positive?

Improving the pass rush remains the key. Getting someone to act as a stop-gap during Chris Clemons’ recovery would be useful. Abraham — with ten sacks in 2012 — looks like the best (and perhaps cheapest) option of the three experienced free agents. He’s also minus a ring (Umenyiora has two, Freeney has one). It always helps to have a bit of fire still burning away.

One stumbling block to any potential courtship of Abraham is the 49ers. Having entertained Cullen Jenkins after his visit to Seattle, the former Falcons pass rusher is due to stop off in the Bay Area next.

I’m not expecting any fireworks this year. It could be as modest as the re-signing of Alan Branch and a couple of other low-profile deals. The fun thing about this front office is they keep you guessing. The games begin at midnight tonight.

Other names it might be worth watching: Fred Davis (TE), Robert Geathers (DE/DT), Desmond Bryant (DT), Phillip Wheeler (LB), Delanie Walker (TE), Ricky Jean-Francois (DT), Isaac Sopoaga (DT)

Updateaccording to Jason La Canfora the NFL is trying to ice their own ‘negotiating window’. They put out a memo essentially telling teams they can’t agree deals in principle.

This memo seems intent on putting a chill on any of that — the full memo is attached — and makes explicit that even agreeing in principle to a contract that would be contingent on a physical next week would be prohibited. It came as a surprise to many execs and agents and has created quite a stir as to how to proceed with contact tonight.
It’s also struck many as odd, given that the creation of this negotiating window seemed designed to curtail tampering and create a climate where deals could be effectively struck but not fully consummated.

So what is the point of all this then? Maybe this weekend will be pretty quiet after all?

Thursday draft notes

Datone Jones had 19 TFL in 2012 -- among the best in college football

Forget sacks, concentrate on tackles for a loss

A lot of attention is paid to sacks, but is it the best way to determine how productive a defensive lineman really is? As this article from Second Round Stats argues, ‘strength of sacks’ can be influenced by a number of factors. Unblocked plays, strength of opponent, quality of team mates. It all has an impact.

The two Florida State pass rushers for example (Bjoern Werner & Tank Carradine) not only help each other, but according to the article they also weaken the strength of their production. You can’t double team both players.

Strength of opponent also needs to be taken into account. Of Werner’s 13 sacks in 2012, five came against Murray State and Savannah State. Three more came in blow out victories over Wake Forest and Maryland. He had eight games without even recording a sack, but still ended the year with perceived fantastic production. How dominant was he in reality?

Carradine’s production was more spread out — he had just three sack-less games with only one of his eleven sacks coming against Murray or Savannah State.

The best way to judge will always come through watching tape, but another way of projecting overall dominance is to look at tackles for a loss. I think it’s a too-often ignored statistic. Generally if a player is constantly in the backfield, he’ll make plays.

This graph shows the leading players for TFL during 2012. Unsurprisingly, Jarvis Jones is well clear in first place with 24.5 TFL last season. Will Sutton (DT, Arizona State) and Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina) closely follow with 23.5 tackles for a loss. Again, further confirmation of what we already knew. Both players had fantastic seasons and will be coveted players in the 2014 draft.

Datone Jones had only 6.5 sacks in 2012 — which is good, but not amazing production. Yet he ranked in the top ten for TFL with 19. That statistic should be getting more publicity. It validates Jones as a prospect, showing he has the production to go with the athletic skills. Had he recorded 10-12 sacks, everyone would be talking about it. Instead, it’s only 6.5 sacks and very few people mention his production. In reality, he was one of the most productive defensive linemen in college football last season.

In comparison, he had six more TFL than Tank Carradine, Sharrif Floyd and Ziggy Ansah. For what it’s worth, Khaseem Greene had 12 TFL — only one fewer than the three vaunted pass rushers.

Another interesting statistic — J.J. Watt had only seven sacks in his final year at Wisconsin but he had 21 TFL. That’s eerily similar to Jones’ production in 2012.

While the question marks remain over how he fits in the NFL, don’t be surprised if he goes much earlier than people expect. He showed at the Senior Bowl and combine what a fantastic athlete he is. Teams will be aware of his production. If the Seahawks get a chance to draft the guy, I suspect they should probably take it. Seattle needs a defensive lineman not named Chris Clemons who is capable of getting 19 TFL in a season.

If you want a counter argument, remember Jones will have benefited from the presence of Anthony Barr — among the leaders for both sacks and TFL in 2012. He will be a high pick in the 2014 draft too. That undoubtedly helped Jones with the pair often acting as a partnership. The thing is, there’s no reason why Jones can’t strike up a similar partnership with Clemons, Bruce Irvin or any other pass rusher added during the off-season. Essentially, that’s what the Seahawks really need.

Impressive interviews will help defensive duo

You can usually find interviews with high profile college players online. It’s no exact science, but it does give you an insight into a players confidence and technical knowledge. Cordarrelle Patterson for example never looked comfortable being interviewed at Tennessee. On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins would refer to specific routes and play calls. It’s no surprise that one is an inexperienced spark plug while the other is a polished, consistent hands catcher.

I really wanted to get to know Sheldon Richardson and Sylvester Williams during the season, but no interviews were available. Both players went the JUCO route but for different reasons. Richardson had academic issues which forced him to California before returning to Missouri. Williams struggled to motivate himself in High School, dropped out to work in a car parts workshop before eventually having an epiphany moment and returning to football.

In both cases, you want to hear these guys talk. You want to learn about their personalities. And having finally had the opportunity to listen to both players speak,  I couldn’t have been any more impressed.

At the combine Richardson spoke with confidence and humour, which was reassuring given not only his academic problems in college but also his suspension during 2012 for issues relating to missed classes. I also liked the way he talked about sacking Robert Griffin III in this ‘first draft’ feature.

“Against Baylor I had the game of my life. Had two tackles for a loss, made RGIII fumble. I promise you he remembers that game. All you got to do is ask him about his last game against Mizzou. I was in his face a lot.”

I love that quote. I love his attitude and his personality. It’s confident without being cocky. He’s edgy. He’s the type of guy you want playing the three technique.

Williams also appeared in the NFL Network studios this week and has a very different personality. He wore a shirt and tie, seeming humble and modest. More importantly, he had a complete grasp of his position. Williams comes across as a student of the game. While we’re on the subject, he had 13.5 TFL in 2012. Richardson had 10.5. Age is the big issue with Williams (he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie) but don’t rule him out as an option for Seattle in the first two rounds. You won’t see a sweeter swim move, he’s perfected it.

Countering Cosell

Greg Cosell has a well earned reputation as the senior producer at NFL Films. Admittedly, he’s adept at watching tape and explaining clearly and concisely why something has happened.

However, it’s considered sacrilege by some to contradict anything he says — especially when it comes to the draft. And that’s what I’m going to do today.

This week Cosell suggested Matt Barkley is a fourth round talent:

“Number one, he has average arm strength by NFL standards. Number two, his feet are not particularly quick, he has slower feet. And three, he’s a little shorter. So then I go beyond that and think, ‘OK, how can he be successful in the NFL when you got certain limitations?’ And I think those limitations are the things I notice immediately and it’s very difficult for me to look at him as a first- or second-round pick given those limitations and given what I know works effectively in the NFL.”

Cosell isn’t the first person to offer a low opinion of Barkley, but I took particular issue with the reasoning for such a mediocre grade.

Let’s run through each of Cosell’s points individually:

“Number one, he has average arm strength by NFL standards”

Average isn’t ‘bad’. There are several productive quarterbacks in the NFL with only average arm strength. Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees. You wouldn’t say any of these guys have a ‘big arm’. Others like Matt Hasselbeck have been able to forge successful careers without needing a cannon, while the two most productive quarterbacks over the last decade — Tom Brady and Peyton Manning — would not list arm strength among their key attributes.

While there’s some truth that arm strength can be a defining characteristic to own, it’s won’t necessarily make or break a career. Barkley is never going to be Joe Flacco or Cam Newton. He won’t be Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. But it doesn’t mean he can’t be Matt Schaub. And there are plenty of teams out there who would take a 22-year-old version of Schaub given the opportunity.

“Number two, his feet are not particularly quick, he has slower feet”

Presumably this refers to footwork in the pocket and not the ability to be a threat running with the ball. When watching Barkley in 2011, I thought his footwork was at an elite level. His ability to avoid sacks despite lacking great athleticism was among his best qualities. Even more vital was his ability to keep his eyes down field, make reads on the move and still throw an accurate football. One play still stands out from USC’s victory in Oregon (click here and fast forward to 2:07). Barkley takes the snap under center, drops back and eyes up a receiver on the left hand side. He faces three rushers, one of which penetrates up the middle. Barkley feels the pressure without distraction, side steps to avoid it and keeps his eyes on the desired target. He then slides back to the right and just as he’s about to get hit, delivers one of the best passes you’ll see at any level. Accuracy, poise, footwork and yes — arm strength — all present on that play. It’s only example, but there are others.

In 2012 he lost his left tackle to the NFL, his center got injured and the Trojans were nearly always coming from behind due to a rank bad defense. Barkley was under almost constant duress as a consequence and I’ve no doubt that had an impact on his poise and footwork. He threw a lot off his back foot — something he’d rarely done in three previous years as a starter. He forced passes in a way we’d not seen between 2009-11. He picked up bad habits and his game suffered as a result. However, we’ve also seen how surgical he can be when sufficiently protected. We’ve seen him beat Oregon in their own backyard, handle Notre Dame for three years and destroy other PAC-12 rivals. Ask Chip Kelly what he thinks of Barkley.

A little perspective on the footwork or ‘slow feet’ is probably needed here. I think it’d be a palatable criticism if we’d seen it was a big issue when Barkely was a freshman, a sophomore and a junior. But in fairness, we didn’t.

“And three, he’s a little shorter”

Barkley was measured at 6-2 and a half at the combine. When we’re talking about a 5-10 quarterback like Russell Wilson, I can see the complaint. To suggest a quarterback who is a solid 6-2 going on 6-3 is a little short, for me, is extremely harsh.

And I have to say, are we really still having this debate? Have we not learnt anything from Wilson’s success? That’s not to say every 5-10 or shorter-than-average quarterback will make their height a non-issue. There’s a reason so few short quarterbacks succeed. But Barkley isn’t even short. He’s taller than Geno Smith.

Perhaps Cosell’s fourth round grade will prove to be accurate when the time comes for Matt Barkley to take a NFL field? At worst, I think he deserves a grade in the range where Dalton was drafted (35th overall in 2o11). I still believe Barkley should and will be a first round pick, yet I can see why he might fall into the second round. The fourth round just seems a little extreme, though.

ESPN’s Merril Hodge gave the same judgement today based on a five-game study. That’s the issue though — it’s five games. Had Hodge watched five games from 2011, he’d probably offer a first round grade. It’s one of the reasons they tell talented underclassmen quarterbacks to declare when they get the chance — to avoid this kind of last minute analysis. Hodge calls Barkley a project. He may have limited upside — enough to make his NFL career a short one. But how many four-year starters with this level of technical quality get listed as projects?

Seahawks make call to Woodson & Abraham

Josina Anderson is reporting that the Seahawks are among the teams to express early interest in Charles Woodson.

John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to leave no leaf unturned. The Seahawks have done their homework on virtually every veteran hitting the market in the last three years. Woodson is no different.

Whether he’s the right fit for this team remains to be seen. He could offer some veteran guidance to a young secondary, particularly if Marcus Trufant moves on this off-season. He might receive stronger offers from other teams promising more time on the field.

Discussions like this will probably set the tone for free agency next week. The Seahawks probably aren’t going to throw big money at anyone, but they’re hunting for value, experience and production. If Woodson or recent visitor Cullen Jenkins don’t get big, attractive offers elsewhere, they could end up playing a role in the Pacific North West.

Doug Baldwin is a fan anyway:

Meanwhile Kimberly Jones is also reporting that former Falcons pass rusher John Abraham will visit the Seahawks:

Again, no stone unturned.

Mock draft Wednesday’s: 6th March (trade edition)

Today I’m going to do something I’ve never done before. A mock draft with trades.

Considering the fruitless nature of trying to predict 32 picks anyway, I thought I might as well throw in a few deals to change the angle of the debate.

There’s a good chance we’ll see 8-10 trades in the first round this year, giving the whole thing a completely different feel. There’s no fear factor over acquiring early picks since the new CBA was installed. Teams are more than happy to move up. And I think we’ll see a few significant moves in 2013.

Let’s put it this way — there are no obvious elite picks this year. No Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Jadeveon Clowney or even Cam Newton. So what we could see are teams with needs at the premium positions moving up in cheap(ish) deals to make sure they don’t leave empty handed. Teams who are comfortable at quarterback or left tackle could conceivably be willing to move down given the defensive depth in this draft.

Below you’ll find today’s mock including all the deals (trades are highlighted by ** after the players name). At the bottom of the piece I’ve listed the nine different trades I included with a short blurb for each.

First round

#1 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
They try and trade down, but why would you need to get ahead of Jacksonville? Dion Jordan + Tamba Hali = a way to stop Peyton Manning.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) **
Buddy Nix said his team might have to move up this year to get their guy. They trade ahead of Oakland to secure Geno Smith.
#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
With Geno Smith off the board they take the best defensive lineman available.
#4 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) **
Martin Mayhew makes sure he gets a complete cornerback by swapping picks with Philly.
#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) **
It’s easy to forget what a shambles Philly’s offensive line was last year. Having convinced Detroit to swap picks, they take Fisher at #5.
#6 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) **
Sensing an opportunity, San Diego trades up to nail the left tackle position indefinitely.
#7 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
After the fiasco of 2012, don’t expect Arizona to do anything but draft a quarterback here.
#8 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) **
Assuming he checks out medically, Lotulelei could play the one or five technique in Gus Bradley’s defense.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
The Jets might play it safe with the long term future of Rex Ryan unclear. Go back to the run on offense. Start by drafting Warmack.
#10 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Not the flashiest pick but Tennessee’s pass rush isn’t as bad as people think.
#11 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) **
They could’ve taken him at #6 but they still get their guy despite moving down.
#12 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
Werner won’t fall too far. He makes a nice partner for Cameron Wake.
#13 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) **
Monte Kiffin loves this guy, so the always-aggressive Jerry Jones moves up again.
#14 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Disappointed that Richardson is off the board, they address a different need at receiver instead.
#15 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) **
Unless they sign Jake Long, they need to be aggressive to get a blind-side blocker. They have to consider trading up.
#16 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon.
#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
This is a nice fit for player and team.
#18 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) **
They can move down a few spots and still get a cornerback.
#19 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Some team will bite on Ogletree in the top-20
#20 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) **
Trading down five spots doesn’t hurt the Saints — they still get an edge rusher for the 3-4.
#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.
#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
If they’re losing Steven Jackson, then they’ll need a big, physical runner to compete in the NFC West.
#23 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?
#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) **
They have enough picks to target a defensive lineman and move up.
#25 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) **
With the pick they got from Atlanta for trading Revis, the Jets trade above Green Bay to get a much needed receiver.
#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Donald Driver’s retired, Jermichael Finley might be cut and Greg Jennings is a free agent. They could go for a pass catcher here.
#27 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Solid, productive inside linebacker.
#28 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
After a horror show in the playoffs, Denver needs to re-boot that secondary.
#29 Menelik Watson (T, Florida State) **
They need a tackle almost as much as they need a quarterback. Trading up to address the gaping hole at left tackle is a must.
#30 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) **
Stenosis could lead to a fall. Working out where he goes is like trying to finish a Rubik’s cube.
#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) **
They need to bulk up the interior offensive line.
#32 Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
Should they lose Paul Kruger in free agency, finding an edge rusher will become a priority.

There are nine trades in this week’s mock:

1 – Atlanta trades #30 and a conditional 2014 pick to New York for Darrelle Revis

Thomas Dimitroff is no stranger to big moves (see: Julio Jones). Long before the draft they win the Revis sweepstakes by giving the Jets a first round pick this year and throwing in a conditional second rounder for 2014.

2 – Buffalo trades up from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation – second round pick)

With Oakland speculated to be showing interest in Geno Smith, the Bills could be pro-active to make sure they get their man. GM Buddy Nix has openly admitted this might be the year to make it happen at the quarterback position. Jacksonville can afford to move down and still improve their pass rush. They have a lot of needs, so acquiring the #41 pick to go with the #33 in round two makes sense.

3 – Detroit trades up from #5 to #4 with Philadelphia (estimated compensation, late round pick)

The Lions make sure they get Milliner by flipping picks with the Eagles for minimal compensation. Philly could use a cornerback, but they might have their eye on other needs. That won’t stop them attempting to lull the Lions into a deal. Minnesota successfully scared Cleveland into swapping picks last year for Trent Richardson. It’s a small price to pay to get your guy.

4 – San Diego trades up from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation, third round pick plus)

With Luke Joeckel still on the board and the Chargers wondering what Arizona will do, they move up to secure a much needed left tackle. Cleveland hasn’t got a second round selection so accumulating another pick in round three makes sense. This would be a good deal for both parties, win-win.

5 – Dallas trades up from #18 to #13 with Tampa Bay (estimated compensation, mid rounder)

Jerry Jones is always willing to be aggressive on draft day. Monte Kiffin was equally aggressive in trying to get Sheldon Richardson to de-commit from Missouri and switch to USC. They need to get the right players to make this switch to a 4-3 work. Richardson surely won’t get past Carolina at #14? Tampa Bay can still get a corner at #18 while also hurting a division rival if the Panthers are targeting Richardson. It could make for a cheap trade with Dallas.

6 – Chicago trades up from #20 to #15 with New Orleans (estimated compensation, mid/late round package)

Unless they want to make a move for Jake Long next week, the Bears are running out of options to protect Jay Cutler. If they see Fisher, Joeckel, Warmack and Cooper leave the board in the top ten, they better get ready to move up. The Saints are down on picks due to the bounty scandal so might be willing to talk about a trade. St. Louis could take Johnson at #16 while other teams (Cincinnati?) may also show interest. Trading up eliminates the competition for Chicago.

7 – San Francisco trades up from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation, mid rounder)

The 49ers know they need to bolster their defensive front and have enough picks to make a deal. Datone Jones could have a big impact at the five technique and might be the heir apparent for Justin Smith. San Francisco will suspect interest from Seattle, and you just know Harbaugh would love to get one over the Seahawks here. If Indianapolis is looking seriously at Travis Frederick, they can probably afford to trade down first.

8 – New York trades up from #30 to #25 with Seattle (estimated compensation, late rounder)

John Idzik rings his old buddies in Seattle and works out a ‘mates rates’ trade. The Jets need a pass rusher, but they also need to kick start a rank bad offense. Justin Hunter is trending upwards after the combine and could be a target for Green Bay. The Jets swoop in first. Without much competition for pass rushers in the late first round, the Seahawks can afford to move down even if the deal isn’t great (eg, 4th or 5th rounder).

9 Arizona trades up from #38 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation, mid round pick plus)

The Cardinals know they have to get a left tackle and the options remaining are running thin. Similar to Tampa Bay going up to get Doug Martin last year, Arizona takes no chances here and makes a move at the end of day one. Menelik Watson is the best option available and they get the job done so they can relax over night. New England — despite moving up twice in round one last year — always appear willing to move down.

So what about the Seattle’s first pick?

In this scenario, I’m projecting they would’ve shown serious interest in Datone Jones until San Francisco moved up to get him. Accessing that there are still plenty of options at defensive end, tackle, tight end and receiver, the opportunity to move down appears attractive. The new-found connections in New York help things along.

It really came down to two players at #30 — Jarvis Jones and Corey Lemonier.

For the last few weeks, I’ve had Jones dropping out of the first round. This isn’t a wishful attempt to give the Seahawks one of biggest names in the draft. I think we’ve gone through enough different options so far to make that a moot point.

I do believe he’ll suffer a fall on draft day. Stenosis is a bad word in the NFL. While some teams will be willing to take a chance (they always are) others will be wary of the condition making it a short-term investment. Teams picking in the top-20 will have alternatives. It’s just a case of which team is going to take the chance and at what point in the draft.

If he falls into the late first, the Seahawks might be the team. Yes — Pete Carroll has the whole USC history with Jones. And I still think there’s an extremely good chance that’ll stop Seattle considering Jones in round one. However, as discussed in yesterday’s piece — he’s a grown man and nobody is forcing him to pursue a career in the NFL. I think it comes down to the percentage risk of a life threatening injury. If the stenosis is always liable to end his career prematurely, that’s one thing. If it’s liable to ruin his life forever, that’s quite another. I’m not a doctor, I don’t understand the full consequences here. The player himself could fall, but he’s also good enough to be named among 2013’s top prospects. So how do you balance everything out? And will he even be a part of Seattle’s draft board to begin with?

There’s a lot’s of things at stake here that’ll determine whether he’s part of Seattle’s plans. Availability, diagnosis, need. Again, it’s something we discussed at length yesterday. Could it happen? Only another 50 days to find out.

So… Jarvis Jones to Seattle. Could it happen? Should it?

Would it be ethical for Seattle to take Jarvis Jones?

It just seems so unlikely that the Seahawks would draft Jarvis Jones if he made it to the #25 pick. Pete Carroll and other members of Seattle’s coaching staff were at USC when he was told by the school’s medical team that he should cease playing football to avoid life threatening injury. He has spinal stenosis, a condition that has cut short many promising careers. Although it’s highly unlikely a scrubbed up Carroll was the guy making that particular judgement, imagine that scenario for a moment. You’re part of an organisation that warns a player he should stop playing to avoid possible permanent and serious injury. Then when he turns pro, you offer him a contract? The ethics don’t add up there.

Having said that, someone is presumably going to give Jones the opportunity to play professional football — whether that’s as a first round pick or a seventh round pick. And that team will have to clear him to play, just like Georgia did and USC didn’t. The NFL teams will do their own tests. Their doctors will offer up their own take.

I’m not going to pretend I have any insight into the specifics of spinal stenosis, but Jones has argued that he only suffers from a mild case and it won’t be an issue. That might be wishful thinking. Yet since he started competing in the SEC, he’s not had any neck or back injuries. He’s been banged up and missed games (plus the combine), but there haven’t been any red flag moments where you start to fear that he’s putting his life at risk.

Some teams will possibly hear the word ‘stenosis’ and take his name immediately off their draft board. Others will take their chances based on the information they receive. It does seem a little crude to even use the words ‘take their chances’. We’re talking about a man who could be left with life-threatening injuries if this condition is as serious as USC suggested. And that’s why I keep coming back to whether Carroll would want to be the one to make the call. Him drafting Jarvis Jones just seems all the more risky. He’s the one who probably sat in a room with those doctors when the call was made to prevent him playing any more football for Southern Cal. If Jones did suffer a serious injury in Seattle due to the stenosis, how bad what that look?

I suppose if the Seahawks’ medical team see things differently and clear him physically, then it becomes somewhat of a moot point. After all, nobody is forcing Jones to play football. They’d be able to point to the tests and say they did their homework. Carroll would be well within his rights to explain he’s a coach not a doctor and that he was acting only on the information presented to him. You can see why things might get a little awkward though if something went wrong.

The stenosis is likely to drop Jones down the draft board, although it’s not the only reason why he probably won’t be a top-ten pick. As dynamic as he’s been in the SEC for the last two years, there’s still a lot of frustrating tape out there. You can’t help but watch the SEC Championship game against Alabama and scream, “Get off that tight end!” Get off the block and make a play. He couldn’t.

Even when he had a big impact (eg, Missouri), there are frustrating moments where he’s easily managed. I think he’s a naturally gifted football player and athlete with a nose for big plays, but he’s not necessarily the most natural edge rusher. I know that sounds strange given his sack numbers, but it’s difficult to explain. Look at the tape below and you’ll probably see what I mean.

There’s no getting away from his production in college. For the last two seasons, he’s been statistically one of the best players at any position. Only Whitney Mercilus topped him for sacks in 2011, but he led the country in 2012. That’s two solid years of pure production in the SEC. He had an astonishing 24.5 tackles for a loss in 2012, with a further 19.5 the previous year. Throw in nine forced fumbles and an interception and it’s easy to see why teams will be hoping he checks out medically.

It’s easy to rule Jones out at #25 due to the medical history involved with USC. But what about the argument that suggests it still remains a possibility?

Pete Carroll has been very open and honest when discussing the teams needs going into an off-season. In his end of season press conference in 2011, he singled out how important it was to improve the 31st ranked rushing offense. So what does he do? He goes out and drafts the left tackle from the best running team in college football — Alabama. The guy who created rushing lanes for Mark Ingram so that he could win a Heisman. James Carpenter was the teams first round pick. They then go back and add a road-grader type with their second choice in John Moffitt. The intent was very clear and with hindsight, both picks made absolute sense. Yet at the time nobody called it.

A year later and Carroll is speaking about the next batch of needs. He highlights speed among the front seven as a key focus. Then he goes out and selects the fastest defensive end in the draft — Bruce Irvin. He follows it up with one of the fastest linebackers — Bobby Wagner. Again, with hindsight if you took Carroll’s remarks literally both picks were fairly obvious. He did what he said he was going to do. By the book.

And now the focus is improving the pass rush. Carroll has spelled it out again, just like the last two years. It’s a safe bet that he’s going to draft for the defensive line to improve the pass rush. I sat down last night and looked at a long list of defensive ends and tackles. I could see a handful of likely options. But one name stood out. Carroll has been extremely literal with these hints, he’s made everything clear. He wants to improve the pass rush this off-season.

Statistically, who has been college football’s best pass rusher the last two years?

It’s Jarvis Jones.

Yet just when you think — hey — this makes perfect sense, you almost have to take a step back.

Let’s go back to 2009, when the stenosis was initially discovered. ESPN’s Jordan Conn takes us through events:

The injury occurred against Oregon on Halloween in 2009. By all accounts, it was a routine hit, but after staying on the turf for a few seconds, he was removed from the game. Within days, he found himself in the hospital, where a specialist told him he had a “mild” case of spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column. “I’ve seen this over and over again,” Jones remembers the doctor saying. “If you play the game long enough, things like this will happen.”

The doctor told Jones he would be fine and he could play again. But the Trojans’ team doctors thought the injury was much more serious and refused to clear him for contact; they eventually recommended that Jones retire from football. So the then-20-year-old spent his days wandering from class to the basketball gym to the weight room.

USC doesn’t just turn away top recruits on a whim. Could it be argued that the first doctor wasn’t speaking from a completely qualified position? That perhaps he didn’t have the full facts at the time? If you’re told everything will be fine one minute and then you need to retire the next, it’s harder to accept. You’re getting mixed message. Ultimately, USC made a difficult judgement. They were ending his dreams. You don’t take matters like that lightly. And yet I appreciate why Jones fought to continue.

Conn also spoke to Ken Norton Jr. — now linebackers coach in Seattle, but in 2009 he was the main reason Jones chose to play for the Trojans.

“A lot of guys have speed, but they’re not tough,” Norton says. “Then some guys are tough but slow. Then there are guys who have all of that but no football smarts or work ethic. Jarvis has it all. It’s not even fair.” Norton, like Jones, truly believed the Trojans had signed their next great linebacker. “It seemed like just a regular linebacker injury,” says Norton. “I don’t think any of us thought it’d be as serious as it turned out.”

The coaches were aware of the situation. Carroll and Norton left USC for Seattle a matter of weeks after the decision was made, but you have to believe they were right there — maybe even breaking the bad news to the player. For those same coaches to then offer him a pro-contract a few years later just seems unethical, doesn’t it?

Scott Schrader also spoke to Jones about his departure from USC and I’d recommend checking out his piece. There’s also an article courtesy of redandblack.com documenting his switch from inside linebacker to the WILL/outside rusher. “The switch to playing the weak outside linebacker, called ‘Will’ in the 3-4, allowed Jones to use the wide variety of skills that he possessed. Jones insisted he didn’t always view himself as a pass rusher and that he didn’t even know why he had so much success at getting to the quarterback.”

Would Jones play the WILL in Seattle? This isn’t a 3-4 scheme and the roles are different. Would he play the LEO? He doesn’t have the natural length that would make that an obvious fit.

And yet he’s been the most productive pass rusher in college football the last two years. Wouldn’t you just have to find a role for the guy if he is cleared medically? However big that if may be?

Stranger things have happened. The biggest priority will remain a defensive tackle for now, unless that matter is addressed in free agency. It’s one of only two positions on the roster (along with the WILL) where the Seahawks are scheduled to lose a starter. Yet this is a team that has taken risks. Trading for Marshawn Lynch, Charlie Whitehurst and Lendale White were risks. Drafting Bruce Irvin was seen as a risk. Drafting a 5-10 quarterback and making him the starter was a risk. Trying out Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards was a risk. So was flirting with the idea of trading for Brandon Marshall in 2010.

This would be a completely different risk given the extremely serious consequences of it all going wrong. The question is, would this risk be too much even for the Seahawks?

Monday draft notes: What will KC do with the #1 pick now?

Andy Reid is making life interesting in the NFL

Crazy in KC

The Chiefs turned an already unpredictable draft on its head tonight. By agreeing a new 5-year contract with Dwayne Bowe, it allowed them to spend the franchise tag on left tackle Branden Albert.

It means Albert will earn $9,828,000 in 2013. Considering the Chiefs already have right tackle Eric Winston under contract (4-years, $22m), it seems unlikely they’ll be spending the #1 pick on Luke Joeckel or any other offensive tackle.

They could theoretically move Albert back to guard, a move he’s been vocally opposed to. He played guard at Virginia. It still seems like a costly exercise. They’d have the 2013 #1 pick playing left tackle, Albert and his near $10m salary playing guard and Winston is taking up $7m against the cap this year as the right tackle. Sure, a good offensive line is important. But that looks like overkill.

Albert could also hold-out if they force him to change position. He knows any future big contract will be predicated by his ability to continue as a blind-side blocker. Nobody is going to pay multi-millions for his services as a guard. Surely the Chiefs didn’t just pay $10m for a headache?

So what happens now with the #1 pick?

They may intend to try and recoup picks after the Smith-deal with San Francisco — although that’s easier said than done. Why does anyone really have to get above Jacksonville and Oakland to own the top selection? The Chiefs saying they’d like to trade down would be like any of us saying we’d appreciate a night on the town with Megan Fox, with an invitation for coffee afterwards. Well.. duh. Neither situation, sadly, appears likely.

Bowe’s cap hit will likely be substantial after signing a long-term contract. The offensive line is now very expensive and Alex Smith is due nearly $10m in both 2013 and 2014. Jamaal Charles’ six-year contract pays him over $4m this season and next. They have playmakers, a line and a quarterback earning big money. A serious case can be made for the Chiefs turning their attention to defense.

If they stay put, I think it might come down to two guys — Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd.

There’s not a desperate need for an edge rusher in Kansas City with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston on the roster, but Jordan showed at the combine he has genuine elite athletic potential. I do think he has a chance to become a star at the next level. No offense to Mr. Houston, but putting Jordan across from Hali would create one of the best pass rushing tandem’s in the league. It’d certainly ask a few questions of Peyton Manning in Denver. Andy Reid knows he doesn’t just need a new offensive direction, he has to find a way to stop Manning to win the AFC West.

It’d be unusual for a team to draft a five technique with the #1 pick, but it seems like a lot of teams are really high on Sharrif Floyd’s back-story, upside and physical attributes. If he’s been graded as the best player in the draft then he has a shot to go first overall. If they have ambitions of transitioning to a 4-3 in the future, he’s also scheme diverse. The contract at #1 isn’t so big these days that you’re paying a ridiculous salary for a position of secondary importance. It might only be a matter of time before we see a non quarterback, left tackle or edge rusher go first overall.

Right now, I’d put Oregon’s Jordan down as the favourite to be the top pick.

Whatever happens, Andy Reid is making the off-season fun already.

Seattle’s options at defensive tackle dwindling

Sadly, neither Henry Melton or Randy Starks will be available in free agency. Both players were tagged by Chicago and Miami respectively. The two most attractive options for Seattle in free agency are no longer available.

Other players, such as Oakland’s Desmond Bryant or unattached Cullen Jenkins, are still out there. Jenkins is having his visit to Seattle today. Who knows, maybe he never makes that trip to San Francisco (his next scheduled stop)? The Seahawks also have the option of re-signing Alan Branch.

I suspect they’ll do something, whether that’s before March 12th with Jenkins or during free agency. The Seahawks only have two out of contract starters — Branch and Leroy Hill. Although not a starter, I think they view the Jason Jones position with equal importance. He too is a free agent. Going into the draft needing to replace two defensive linemen isn’t a desirable position to be in. It makes some degree of logic to at least entertain the possibility of a modest free agent investment to keep a few options open.

Depending on the price, I’d welcome Branch back at this stage. I think he’s had a solid two years with the team despite being asked to fill a position that’s quite foreign to a player of his size (three technique). The fact he can cover Red Bryant at the five and play inside has some value. Teams switching to a 3-4 this off-season might be willing to pay him more money to fill the nose tackle slot. At the right price, I say bring him back.

It is disappointing to see both Melton and Starks leave the market. It’s not a huge shock that Chicago held onto their prize asset, but it’s only recently that Starks emerged as a tag candidate in Miami. A likely target for Seattle based on his ability to anchor versus the run while still collapse the pocket, Miami made the right move keeping him alongside Paul Soliai. It’s basically a one-year $8m rental for the Dolphins.

While this is a good year for defensive tackles in the draft, there isn’t really anyone you want to fight for at #25. It’s easy to say in January and February (as we did) that this is a deep class. You could draft a Sylvester Williams, Kawann Short, Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams (for example). As we get closer to the draft though, most of those options just seem, well, underwhelming. The options at defensive end (LEO), receiver and tight end however seem more appealing.

Players to receive the franchise tag: Jairus Byrd (Buffalo), Henry Melton (Chicago), Michael Johnson (Cincinnati), Anthony Spencer (Dallas), Ryan Clady (Denver), Pat McAfee (Indianapolis), Branden Albert (Kansas City) and Randy Starks (Miami).

Notable players who weren’t tagged before the deadline: Ed Reed, Paul Kruger, Aqib Talib, William Moore, Brent Grimes, Cliff Avril, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Amendola, Desmond Bryant, Jared Cook, Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings.

Matt Barkley back in pole position?

Here at Seahawks Draft Blog, we get a lot of things wrong. It happens. But one of the things I think we’ve got right this year is not buying into the Matt Barkley-is-garbage bandwagon.

Today I noticed two articles to support that stance. The first — by NFL.com’s Albert Breer — notes different quotes from personnel executives, GM’s and scouts on whether anyone can usurp Geno Smith to be the first quarterback off the board. The consensus generally seems to be that Barkley can:

One NFC personnel executive said that Barkley, from a “football smarts” standpoint, is rare, comparable with Andrew Luck when he came out last year. In fact, when asked on Monday if anyone could pass Smith, the exec texted to say, “I think (Barkley) already has.”

Second, Barkley’s 2012 stumble is explainable. He lost his left tackle, Matt Kalil, to the NFL, and an injury to his center, Khaled Holmes, left USC’s line in shambles. A series of injuries at tight end didn’t help, either. Besides all that, the locker room melted down around him.

Barkley admitted to some NFL folks in Indy that he tried to do too much as a senior. An NFC general manager who still likes Barkley said, succinctly, that the quarterback’s problem was that he was “coloring outside the lines” last fall.

I don’t know if it’s a California thing, or a USC thing, but a lot of people have been quick to come down on Barkley. The guy can play. Take away Russell Okung, injure Max Unger, have Pete Carroll replaced with Lane Kiffin and swap Seattle’s defense with eleven scarecrows and let’s see how Russell Wilson does in 2013. That’s basically what Barkley had to work with. The Trojans were a complete shambles last season.

Was the quarterback blameless? Not at all. But it’s funny how similar statistically he was in 2011 when many considered him a top-ten pick. Those condemning Barkley love to point to the fact he had Marqise Lee and Robert Woods to throw to. So did Max Wittek when he laid a couple of eggs against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.

The other thing people love to point to is a lack of arm strength. Nobody will ever argue that Barkley has a big arm. He doesn’t. But neither is he Kellen Moore-standard as some joker suggested recently. That really is a laughable comparison.

He won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. Teams utilising a vertical passing offense won’t show much interest. Others who are prepared to play a similar way to Seattle — run the ball, lots of play action utilising a point guard quarterback — will probably love the guy. To quote again from Breer’s piece today:

Barkley is at his best when he’s playing quarterback like a point guard, focusing on setting up others to make plays rather than being asked to make plays on his own.

He also notes:

One NFC personnel executive said that Barkley, from a “football smarts” standpoint, is rare, comparable with Andrew Luck when he came out last year. In fact, when asked on Monday if anyone could pass Smith, the exec texted to say, “I think (Barkley) already has.”

This brings me to the second article I wanted to highlight today, written by Dan Pompei from the NFP. He notes that the focus within the NFL right now is to find the next Russell Wilson. Not by drafting another underrated 5-10 quarterback, but by finding a player that shares the same level of work rate and football IQ to put themselves in a position to be successful:

“The reason quarterbacks have success is because they are leaders,” one NFC general manager said. “Russell Wilson absolutely reinforces that. You have to feel comfortable with that. Did Christian Ponder have everything you look for? No, but he had some leadership to him. I’m not surprised he went in the first round. Minnesota got comfortable with the leader. That’s a valuable trait, over the arm strength.”

So which prospect in this draft has the best combination of intangibles and ability? According to multiple front office men surveyed by NFP, it’s Southern Cal’s Matt Barkley. As a result, some believe his stock is back on the rise after taking a season-long dip.

Different execs lauded Barkley for his anticipation, his communication skills, his personality that lights up a room, and his pocket presence. Another said he had the best instincts and ability to see the field.

Asked which quarterback was most impressive in terms of conveying leadership in his combine interview, one general manager said, “I think Barkley is special that way. He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The personality is there with Barkley. We ask them questions, try to get a feel for how much they love football, and see if they have a special trait that makes people want to be around them and listen to them. It all comes through with him.”

(Pete) Carroll has a better feel for Barkley than most because he coached him at Southern Cal. “No question Barkley is loaded with intangibles,” Carroll said. “He has everything everybody wants. He has had it for some time. He knows what it’s like to be on a big stage at an early age and handle it impeccably.”

When push comes to shove, some GM’s and coaches will be prepared to go into battle with Matt Barkley. They’ll know they need to surround him with a supporting cast, but they’ll work on that. For everyone who thinks this years group of quarterbacks is mediocre (it isn’t, it’s just not as good as last years), wait until you see what 2014 has to offer. I think Barkley will look like a pretty good investment in twelve months time.

I also suspect he’ll be the first quarterback off the board unless someone really has fallen for Geno Smith (it could happen). I think both could be top-10 picks. But Barkley certainly won’t be dropping into round two or even round three as some have suggested.

Lemonier, Joeckel and Swope game tape

Two pieces of game tape for you today. The first shows an interesting Corey Lemonier vs Luke Joeckel match-up from 2012. Well, it would’ve been an interesting match-up. But this is 2012 Auburn we’re talking about. And it’s hard to rush the passer when you’re 21-0 down at the end of the first quarter and 42-7 down at half time. We talked about Lemonier on the blog yesterday.

The second shows Texas A&M receiver Ryan Swope vs Auburn and Mississippi State:

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