Author: Rob Staton (Page 328 of 423)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Mock draft Wednesday’s: 3rd April

Can you be too big in Seattle's scheme?

No trades in the mock this week (just to mix things up a bit). As noted yesterday, I think we’ll see a ton of first round deals on April 25th so take this with a grain of salt (you possibly already do). I’ve tried to think outside of the box and make a few surprise choices.

It’s been revealed the following players will be attending the draft in New York: Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel, Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Cooper, Sharrif Floyd, Lane Johnson, Ziggy Ansah, Kenny Vaccaro, D.J. Fluker, Eric Fisher, Menelik Watson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, Xavier Rhodes, Margus Hunt, Barkevious Mingo and Dee Milliner. Dion Jordan is still considering his invite.

I remain perplexed, confused and intrigued by what Seattle is going to do at #56. It seems like nothing is off the table. In fact, looking at the options available for round three, it wouldn’t surprise me if they traded out of the second round. In the end I went with a big defensive tackle who’s one of those players who could easily go in round one or round three. John Jenkins is massive. He’s also pretty agile for his size. However, his tape is inconsistent and the big question is will that inconsistency improve in a situation where you can better manage his snaps? Seattle appears to want size at tackle. Big early, tough to run against, then unleash the hounds. That seems to be the aim here. Jenkins would fit into that.

Whether a guy at 6-4 and around 340 is the answer, I’m not sure. They seem to prefer length and decent size, instead of those enormous nose tackle types. Alan Branch, Tony McDaniel — both big tackles, but not 340lbs. I was tempted to go for Kyle Long as a player capable of playing both guard and tackle.

If you missed it earlier, make sure you check out Kip’s piece on quarterback options for Seattle in the draft.

I also want to remind everyone that you can now purchase Seattle’s new ‘draft cap’ through Seahawks Draft Blog by clicking the image below. Help the blog and support the Seahawks during ‘draft month’.

Shop for official 2013 NFL Draft Caps from New Era at NFLShop.com

First round

#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
Still seems the most likely pick.
#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple.
#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
This will be a long rebuild.
#4 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
I just have a hunch someone will fall in love with Austin enough to make him a higher pick than we expect.
#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Fills a need at left tackle. Could be Dee Milliner here.
#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade.
#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb.
#9 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
He could line up in multiple looks for Rex Ryan.
#10 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
He’s been cleared medically.
#11 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
Again, another hunch. Brown could go earlier than we think.
#12 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
With the top tackles off the board, why not take Warmack?
#13 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
One way or another, I think the Buccs end up with Darrelle Revis.
#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Flat out steal if it happens.
#15 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
Athletic potential could = top 15.
#16 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Tremendous player, who could feature at guard or center.
#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
A good fit for both parties.
#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
They just signed Tony Romo to a mega deal. Giving him Dez Bryant and Cordarrelle Patterson to throw to would be fun.
#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He could fall further than this.
#20 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Fills a need. Athletic potential could make this a steal. Character concerns linger.
#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.
#22 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
If they’re looking for a weapon on offense, Woods could be in play.
#23 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
He’s good but is he special enough to go earlier?
#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
A huge need for the Colts.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back to the Notre Dame well?
#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings is in Minnesota. They could go for a pass catcher here.
#27 Keenan Allen (WR, Houston)
Receiver looks like a strong option here.
#28 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
He did well enough at the combine to warrant a place in round one.
#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe.
#30 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
He hopes to work out on April 20th.
#31 Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
Safety is a key need for the Niners.
#32 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
The Ravens often look for value, rather than simply filling needs.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Matt Scott (QB, Arizona)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Buffalo – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#42 Miami – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#43 Tampa Bay – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#44 Carolina – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#45 San Diego – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#46 St. Louis – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
#49 New York Giants – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#50 Chicago – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#53 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#55 Green Bay – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#56 Seattle – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#57 Houston – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#58 Denver – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#59 New England – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#60 Atlanta – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#61 San Francisco – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)

Status check

Totally unrelated image

Tony Pauline is reporting that most team’s have given approximately fifteen players first round grades this year. It’s not a huge surprise. While it’s true that there’s a deep, wide ranging talent pool that stretches as far as the early third round, it’s a class that lacks sure-fire first round talent. Players going in the 40-55 range will compare favourably with those going in the 20’s. And that means anything could happen.

By acknowledging this we start to get an even better understanding as to why Seattle traded for Percy Harvin. Let’s say the Seahawks are one of those teams with about 15 ‘first round’ players on their board. What are you actually going to get at #25? The answer is, nobody even close to the level of Harvin’s talent. The fans in the PNW should appreciate that they have a front office with the kind of vision to see that and the cojones to make the move. Frankly, I couldn’t care less whether the Harvin trade works out. The odds are stacked in Seattle’s favour here and they were right to take a shot. So while Vikings fans get to contemplate the possibility of adding a guy like Manti Te’o with that extra pick, the Seahawks get one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. It was win-win for all concerned.

Hardly anybody is going to feel satisfied with their draft position this year. I suspect nearly every team in the first round will be looking to move up or down, targeting specific needs and hunting for value. That’s obviously the case every year, but it could be even more extreme in 2013. And that could lead to cheap trades galore.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, like last year, we get up towards 10-12 trades on day one. Little moves where a team is happy to drop for the price of an additional fourth or fifth rounder. The new CBA encourages movement in the draft, but a deep class lacking elite talent will make it even more entertaining. We might see several minor deals (eg — Cleveland and Minnesota flipping spots a year ago) as teams jostle around. The best chance of a blockbuster trade could be if Darrelle Revis gets moved. I suspect as the board unfolds he’ll start to look like a more attractive proposition. A team like Tampa Bay with a ton of cap room could essentially move from #13 into the 20’s, taking whatever deal they can get, then send the pick to New York for Revis.

We could also see a lot of ‘surprise’ picks, at least based on what the media has reported thus far. All those players who’ve been knocked since the end of the college football season could suddenly emerge as first rounders. Players we talked about during September to December (Matt Barkley, Arthur Brown, Zach Ertz, Robert Woods) could end up being first round picks. And everyone will act shocked. There’s basically a pool of around 50 players who could theoretically go in round one. Whether it’s scheme, a hunch, athletic dynamism or consistency — we’re going to see teams going beyond conventional wisdom and rankings to take guys they feel comfortable with.

The one position I think we’ll see a rush on is left tackle. That’s not such a bold statement, given it remains a premium position in the league. Really there are three tackles you’d feel comfortable starting on the blind-side in year one — Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson. And then there’s a Grand Canyon of space between the next guy. With teams like Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo all adding ‘stop gap’ quarterbacks this week, they’ve positioned themselves to go after different needs early. They aren’t handcuffed. And that could help keep the left tackles in the top 6-8 picks.

This is the first area we could see genuine movement. San Diego and Miami are on the outside looking in and might feel obliged to make a move into the top five or six to get a left tackle. They’ll need to because suddenly Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Arizona all look good bets to draft one of the top three. If Joeckel goes first overall as expected, Fisher and Johnson surely won’t get passed Detroit and Arizona?

The other player who could generate a bit of a spark is Geno Smith. He appears to have emerged as the most desirable quarterback in this class (personally, I still prefer Barkley). Despite the moves by Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo — Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer and Kevin Kolb are not going to answer any long term problems. All three teams need a quarterback for the future. Badly. The question is, have the three new additions this week given them the flexibility to wait?

For example, all three teams could now wait until the early second round. Barkley, Ryan Nassib, E.J. Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, Matt Scott. There are plenty of options there. If nobody bites on Smith in the top ten, how far does he fall?

I’m guessing someone will take Smith in the top ten, but have the three most likely suitors called each others bluffs with their moves this week? Jacksonville probably cringed when they saw the Palmer/Flynn trades. Those two players are more likely to be given the chance to start than Kolb in Buffalo. If you’re the Bills and you want Smith, you might feel less inclined to get ahead of Oakland. I’m guessing the Jaguars were hoping for a bit of a bidding war. Now he might fall to #8 with the Cardinals addressing the offensive line and Oakland adding a much needed pass rusher. I think Buffalo is the most likely fit for Geno Smith.

I reckon Jacksonville is a potential option for Matt Barkley. Gus Bradley will know all about his qualities having spent the last three years with Pete Carroll. He’s a player you can build around, and I suspect Seattle would’ve been hoping to structure around the USC quarterback had they not struck gold on Russell Wilson. If he lasts until the first pick of day two, Barkley could be the pick for Jacksonville. And that would be outstanding value. It’s also the reason why I think someone would look to move into the 20’s to get Barkley if he remains on the board.

What happens at defensive tackle? While it’s a pretty deep class, there aren’t many ‘must have’ players. I think a lot of teams will like Sylvester Williams for example, but will any feel inclined to draft him in round one given he’ll be 25 this year? Is he a true difference maker? I’d argue he’s good, not great. Just like a lot of the DT’s. Really it wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-25 or made it all the way to #56.

Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei should all be early picks (and are likely to be among the 15 players given first round grades by most teams). After that there’s just a cloud of mystery. Can anyone honestly say they have a good idea where Sly Williams, John Jenkins, Kawann Short, Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams will land? They could go anywhere. First. Second. Maybe even third.

Defensive tackle remains a good shout for Seattle in round two, but none of these players are freakishly tall and long. Jenkins is massive, but they’ve looked at guys who are tall and 305-320lbs rather than tall and nearly 350lbs. Kawann Short is a natural three technique, but they don’t seem to be looking for that. In all honesty, despite the need, it wouldn’t shock me if Seattle passed on all of the names listed in the paragraph above and went after a Montori Hughes (6-4, 329lbs) later on. Major character red flags could keep Hughes on the board longer than most expect.

A lot of people don’t think the Seahawks to go linebacker early but I kind of disagree. I don’t think they are handcuffed to amazing speed, although there’s every chance they’ll identify an unknown speedster in the later rounds who just fits into the scheme and works immediately. But I also believe there’s every chance they’ll love what Khaseem Greene brings to the table if he’s there at #56. He’s an impact player. Take that 4.6/4.7 speed an offset it with his mass-production at Rutgers. Not to mention he could be Russell Wilson on defense with his character and heart. He’s a terrific player. His floor might be Tampa Bay at the top of round two (Greg Schiano, Rutgers).

It also wouldn’t shock me if others like Arthur Brown (unlikely to be available) and Sio Moore receive some interest from the Seahawks. I wouldn’t rule out a starting WILL in round two. Why would you rule anything out with this team?

Well, maybe you’d rule out quarterback. John Schneider was part of a front office that drafted Brian Brohm in round two despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on their roster. It’s also worth noting at the time that Favre was doing his ‘will he or won’t he retire’ act every year and Rodgers had some convincing to do as the prospective heir apparent. Brohm was probably drafted to compete for a starting role. Any quarterback drafted by Seattle this year won’t be competing to usurp Russell Wilson.

Of course, if a certain player is too good to pass you make the pick and hope to turn it into value down the line. However, it’s very difficult to turn the #56 pick into a first rounder if the player is riding the bench. I think it’s more likely they look at the position from round three onwards. Arizona’s Matt Scott will be worked out by Seattle on Friday. That’s one to keep an eye on.

Johnthan Banks is the type of player that falls due to speed issues and then everyone wonders how that ever happened a few years later. I would love, love, love the opportunity to draft him in round two, even if starting outside corner isn’t the biggest need. This front office has been able to add talent at corner with later round picks, but I don’t think they’d be totally against picking the right guy early. Banks would be a hard pass.

I watched Jarvis Jones’ pro-day work out this weekend. I’m worried for the guy. I had him dropping deep into round two in last week’s mock. That could become a reality.

I’m fascinated by Eddie Lacy’s stock. Again, he’s another player who could go anywhere. Tony Pauline spells it out: “The frustration over Lacy and the fact he’s pushed his workout back to April 11th is beginning to boil over. Scouts are questioning whether Lacy is too injured to run or just too slow.” There’s just something about a Lynch-Lacy backfield that seems so ‘Seattle’. He could fall.

And then there’s the offensive line, which could use further depth although I’m not totally convinced that will be a round two target. There are swing tackles likely to be available in that range (Long? Williams? Armstead? Mills? Thomas?) but I do think it’s more of a later round option. Tom Cable will have identified his guy, just as we saw with J.R. Sweezy last year.

I guarantee after day one of the draft you’ll have about 10-20 players you’ll be excited about taking at #56. That’s the way this draft is. It’ll be unpredictable, exciting. And it won’t matter that round one will slide by without any major Seattle shocks this year.

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Report: Matt Flynn trade to Oakland is close

So it appears the Matt Flynn era (can we call it an ‘era’?) is coming to a close. Various reports (see above) have a deal with Oakland in the works. It all rests on Carson Palmer now. He is scheduled to take up $15m against the cap this year. Cutting him will save $6m. Inheriting Flynn’s contract via trade will cost the Raiders $5.25m. So it makes sense that they’d try one last time to get Palmer to negotiate before making a move. If he refuses, they have little option but to cut him.

The Raiders can’t carry Palmer — who has zero shot to succeed on that team — at $15m. Trading for Flynn gives them a veteran stop-gap for two years while they rebuild. Unfortunately for Flynn, he couldn’t be walking into a worse situation. Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III would struggle to lift this ailing franchise.

Compensation remains unknown, although don’t get your hopes up. If the trade is completed, it won’t be a blockbuster. Oakland went into the 2012 draft with no picks in the first four rounds. They were given compensatory picks in round three and four, otherwise new GM Reggie McKenzie would’ve been waiting until round five to start a titanic rebuild. He’s already without a second rounder this year as part of the Palmer trade, so he’s not going to be giving up more high picks.

I suspect the most likely scenario is a late rounder as we saw with Tarvaris Jackson last year, a conditional pick in 2014 based on performance or a flipping of picks. For example — Seattle and Oakland swap fourth rounders.

This was an interesting piece by Yahoo’s Jason Cole, which perhaps explains why demand for Flynn’s services has been lukewarm since he left Green Bay. Cole: “McKenzie (Oakland GM), a former Packers executive, knows Flynn well from his days as a backup in Green Bay. However, the scouting report among former Packers executives is that Flynn’s lack of arm strength will eventually be exposed by opposing teams.”

What about a replacement in Seattle? For me, you just draft a guy. It’s what most teams do. New Orleans had UDFA Chase Daniels backing up Drew Brees until he recently switched to Kansas City. Green Bay had 7th rounder Matt Flynn backing up Aaron Rodgers, and then went with UDFA Graham Harrell. New England had 7th rounder Matt Cassel, then UDFA Brian Hoyer and now third round pick Ryan Mallett backing up Tom Brady. For years Peyton Manning was backed up in Indianapolis by 6th rounder Jim Sorgi.

Seattle might as well do the same.

There are quarterbacks in this class worth a look in the later rounds or in UDFA. Sean Renfree, Colby Cameron, Zach Dysert, Alex Carder, B.J. Daniels. They could go for their own version of Mallett in round three if Tyler Bray is still on the board. Let’s also remember that John Schneider was part of a Green Bay front office that drafted Brian Brohm in round two despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on the roster already. So don’t rule out a quarterback being taken at #56. The cost per year would be between $600k-1.2m over four years. Essentially, great value with the upside of a possible Kevin Kolb-type trade down the line.

It’s safe to assume they’ll have an open competition in camp for the backup role. This could include a couple of rookies and a veteran on the minimum salary. Tyler Thigpen could be a good shout — a personal favourite after I saw him live for Kansas City in 2008.

If or when Flynn is traded, it’ll be a relief to have a situation where we aren’t talking about the backup quarterback any more. Two years of chatter about Charlie Whitehurst followed by a year of Matt Flynn is enough. The New Orleans media and fans never gave this much attention to Chase Daniels. Roll on the day where Seattle’s backup is simply the guy who models the latest range of caps and doesn’t earn a relative fortune to hold a clipboard.

Update

It appears the Raiders want Flynn to take a pay cut. As the Tweet below kind of spells out, I wouldn’t be optimistic about any relatively high picks being involved here.

Seahawks sign Tony McDaniel

This could be the end of Alan Branch in Seattle

The elusive defensive tackle is signed. Tony McDaniel has penned a one-year contract with the Seahawks, adding some much needed interior depth.

Whether he starts in Seattle remains to be seen. Alan Branch didn’t just feature as a three technique, he also doubled up as Red Bryant’s backup. McDaniel might carry a similar dual role. But it might be a dual backup role. He was after all merely a rotational cog in Miami.

He could start, though. At 6-7 and 305lbs, he’s got the kind of size they seem to like at tackle. The Seahawks have to become tougher to run against. They also have to find more creative ways to rush the passer. Seattle fields a fine defense, but these are two big areas where they can get even better.

McDaniel has some previous baggage as noted in an earlier piece:

He’s had a couple of ugly run-ins with the police. In January 2005 he assaulted a fellow Tennessee student during a game of pick-up basketball. Edward Goodrich suffered four broke bones in the incident and needed a metal plate inserting into his face to repair the injuries. McDaniel pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault.

Four years later he was arrested on the charge of domestic battery against his girlfriend. The charges were later reduced to disorderly contact, another misdemeanor. He was sentenced to six months probation. He was also required to attend counseling and served a one-game suspension issued by the NFL.

Let’s hope those issues are beyond McDaniel.

It’s worth pondering whether this signing was a direct result of a snub elsewhere. Vaughn Martin (6-4, 327lbs) was on a plane destined for Seattle. Then he got off the plane and signed for the Miami Dolphins:

“I was actually on the plane to Seattle this morning when I got off the plane to come over here back to Davie and sign.”

Martin is a former fourth round pick who left the San Diego Chargers after three seasons in the AFC West.

The door is still open for the Seahawks to draft a defensive tackle. However, given their penchant for guys who are 6-4 or taller and around 310-325lbs, there’s not a lot of obvious options this year. Montari Hughes could be the most fitting but carries an even bigger list of red flags than McDaniel. It might be that next year the Seahawks go into the draft still searching for a long term fit at defensive tackle.

Raiders interested in Matt Flynn?

Matt Flynn continues to be linked with other teams. Mike Silver is reporting “legitimate interest” from the Raiders, but not Jacksonville:

A league source said the Raiders have legitimate interest in acquiring Flynn, who could likely be pried from Seattle for as little as a fourth-round pick. (Another source said the Jacksonville Jaguars, who according to a CBSSports.com report are also interested in Flynn, have little inclination to try to swing a trade.)

Silver also notes a financial stumbling block that could be a turn-off. If the Raiders cut Carson Palmer, they’ll save around $6m against their cap. Acquiring Flynn would take up around $5.25m. Given the trade compensation that would also be required and the salary cap black hole that Oakland finds itself in, a deal still seams a long way off. You’d essentially be swapping Palmer for Flynn for around $750k in savings, while also giving up draft stock.

It really depends how determined the Raiders are to move on from Palmer and how much they want a veteran replacement.

John Clayton has touted the idea of swapping picks, an idea we discussed a couple of months ago on this blog. Flipping third round picks would be worth 100 points, or the same as a fourth round selection. Oakland has the fourth pick in round three, while Seattle has the 25th selection. This would allow the Raiders to avoid losing any picks after the decimation of their 2012 draft.

This remains Seattle’s best chance to move Flynn, which they clearly wish to do. They’ll save $3.25m against the cap if they work out a deal. Nothing is likely to happen though until Palmer is cut. But that appears to be a formality at this stage.

Elsewhere…

Albert Breer has a piece with Darrell Bevell discussing the acquisition of Percy Harvin. Bevell: “My mind started racing… You start thinking about all the things you can do with a player like that. And now the hard part is to harness that talent.”

Chris Mortensen and Mel Kiper discuss the possibility of Russell Wilson being the most successful ‘sophomore’ quarterback in 2013.

Mock draft Wednesday’s: 27th March

USC's Matt Barkley had his pro-day today

Time for this week’s mock. I think you’ll like Seattle’s pick at #56 this week…

It’s another projection that includes trades. Here’s a run down of all the deals in round one:

Buffalo (#8) trades with Jacksonville (#2) for a 2nd round pick + 2014 2nd rounder
With Chris Mortensen repeatedly linking Oakland to Geno Smith, this could force potential suitors to act. Buffalo GM Buddy Nix said during the 2012 season that it could be time to move up and get a quarterback. I suspect Smith will go second overall, it’s just a case of which team moves up. Jacksonville is probably a willing trader.

Miami (#12) trades with Philadelphia (#4) for a 2nd round pick
The Dolphins have two second round picks because of the Vontae Davis trade with Indianapolis. They allowed Jake Long to walk. For a franchise that’s been pretty aggressive so far in free agency, I suspect they’ll consider making a move up the board to get at the top left tackles. They’d still have a second round pick to go after another edge rusher or cornerback. Philly moves down before drafting Tavon Austin.

Dallas (#18) trades with San Diego (#11) for a 3rd round pick
Jerry Jones loves to trade up when he’s identified ‘his guy’. Sheldon Richardson also happens to be Monte Kiffin’s ‘guy’, given how close he came to prising him away from Missouri during a successful JUCO career in California. San Diego’s been pretty passive this off-season so far and despite their desperate needs on the offensive line, if they don’t move up there’s no obvious solution here. They might as well move down to accumulate picks.

Chicago (#20) trades with Tampa Bay (#13) for a 4th round pick + 6th round pick + 2014 3rd rounder
The Bears don’t have a ton of needs but they can’t be totally satisfied with their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod. Trading up for a guard is uncommon, but Jonathan Cooper is up there with Chance Warmack and Mike Iupati as players worth taking in this range. Tampa Bay knows it can get a cornerback at #20.

Atlanta (#30) trades with Green Bay (#26) for a 4th round pick
With Bjoern Werner falling into the 20’s, Atlanta trades up to get an impact pass rusher. The value at #26 isn’t great for Green Bay’s needs so I’d guess they’ll be willing to move down.

Philadelphia (#35) trades with New England (#29) for a 4th round pick
The Eagles could revolutionise their offense here. Cornerback is a concern — and a big one. But Chip Kelly is going to want to get his offensive vision rocking. They move up to secure a quarterback for the long haul. And with another second round pick to come after trading down, you’re looking at an offense that includes E.J. Manuel at quarterback, an X-factor playmaker in Tavon Austin, two speedy receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy at running back and Kyle Long joining Jason Peters on the offensive line. Scary athleticism.

Arizona (#38) trades with Baltimore (#32) for a 5th round pick
Last year Tampa Bay pulled off a cheap trade with Denver to make sure they got Doug Martin. Arizona could pull a similar trick to get their quarterback here.

Seattle’s pick in round two is an interesting scenario. Eddie Lacy is a terrific running back but his off-season has been a veritable car crash. He made an ill-advised joke about adding weight during the off-season due to a mediocre work ethic. He’s got injured. And with less than a month to go to the draft, he’s still not worked out for scouts. When he does, he’s probably not going to blow anyone away.

For a few weeks now I’ve had Lacy going in round one. Yet there’s enough depth at running back to force a dramatic fall here. After all, teams saw what Washington did with Alfred Morris last year, plus what Houston has done with Arian Foster. So there might not be a furious scramble for Lacy. There’s going to be value to had at the position from round three onwards.

The Seahawks don’t have many needs. They also have Robert Turbin who was fine as a rookie. I just think this team would thrive on being able to use a double-headed monster of Lynch and Lacy. Relentless power running. Count this projection as another example of Seattle having the freedom to do what they want with the #56 pick.

To make up for yesterday’s ‘Eagles’ article, I’ve included a full round three.

Don’t forget — We’ve teamed up with NFLSHOP.com so you can get hold of a new Percy Harvin jersey. So if you want to support the Seahawks on gameday with an online purchase, do it through Seahawks Draft Blog!

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First round

#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This still seems like the most likely pick.
#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
Buddy Nix said it was time to move up and get their quarterback.
#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
They need to build a foundation. They’ve created room for this type of pick.
#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Having spent an off-season providing an arsenal for Ryan Tannehill, they have to be able to protect him. Time to move up.
#5 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
He might have more upside than anyone else in the draft.
#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
They might choose to invest in a partner for Joe Haden.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They need to decide if they can afford to wait around for a quarterback.
#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
Gus Bradley worked with Pete Carroll for three years. He’ll know the true value of Matt Barkley.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball and just draft the best player on the board.
#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
Someone is likely to take a chance on Ansah in the top-ten.
#11 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Jerry Jones is not afraid to move up. Monte Kiffin recruited the heck out of this guy.
#12 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
Chip Kelly gets Philly’s answer to D’Anthony Thomas.
#13 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
You don’t usually trade up for a guard. Cooper is worth it.
#14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
This fills perhaps their biggest need.
#15 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
They have all kinds of need on defense. I just have a hunch Datone Jones will go earlier than expected.
#16 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon.
#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
The best player available at a position of need.
#18 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
After trading down, San Diego adds a much needed corner.
#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He’d add a new dynamic to the Giants defense.
#20 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
I just have a hunch there will be teams who rate this guy very highly.
#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.
#22 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
They need an outside linebacker.
#23 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
With a run on cornerbacks under-way, Minnesota gets in on the act.
#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
Interior offensive line is the biggest need in Indy.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?
#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.
#27 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
The Texans could look for a playmaker.
#28 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Keep adding to that arsenal.
#29 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
I’m not much of a fan, but imagine him in an offense with LeSean McCoy, Tavon Austin, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.
#30 Keenan Allen (WR, California)
After losing Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Allen could be the guy here.
#31 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
This would be a scary pick for the NFC West.
#32 Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
After watching Philly trade up for E.J. Manuel, the Cardinals quickly work on a deal to get their quarterback.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco- Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#35 New England – DeAndre Hopins (WR, Clemson)
#36 Detroit – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#38 Baltimore – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#41 Jacksonville – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#42 Philadelphia- Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#43 Tampa Bay – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#45 San Diego – Johnthan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#46 St. Louis – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia)
#49 New York Giants – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#50 Chicago – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#51 Washington – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Terron Armstead (T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff)
#56 Seattle – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#57 Houston – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#58 Denver – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)
#59 New England – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#60 Atlanta – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (OLB, Southern Miss)

3rd round

#63 Kansas City – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M)
#64 Jacksonville – Sio Moore (LB, Connecticut)
#65 Detroit – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#66 Oakland – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#67 Philadelphia – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#68 Cleveland – Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee)
#69 Arizona – Brian Winters (G, Kent State)
#70 Tennessee – Robert Alford (CB, SE Louisiana)
#71 Buffalo – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)
#72 New York Jets – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#73 Tampa Bay – Darius Slay (CB, Mississippi State)
#74 San Francisco – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#75 New Orleans – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#76 San Diego – Jordan Mills (T, Louisiana Tech)
#77 Miami – Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
#78 St. Louis – Le’Veon Bell (RB, Michigan State)
#79 Pittsburgh – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
#80 San Diego – Brian Schwenke (C, California)
#81 New York Giants – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#82 Miami – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#83 Minnesota – Steadman Bailey (WR, West Virginia)
#84 Cincinnati – David Amerson (CB, NC State)
#85 Washington – Jordan Reed (TE, Florida)
#86 Indianapolis – Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
#87 Seattle – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#88 Green Bay – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#89 Houston – Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
#90 Denver – Brandon Williams (DT, Missouri Southern)
#91 New England – Marc Anthony (CB, California)
#92 Atlanta – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#93 San Francisco – Ace Sanders (WR, South Carolina)
#94 Baltimore – Shamarko Thomas (S, Syracuse)
#95 Houston – Travis Kelce (TE, Cincinnati)
#96 Kansas City – Baccari Rambo (S, Georgia)
#97 Tennessee – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)

No defensive tackle? I suspect we might see a signing to fill this role before the draft. I found this interesting:

Chip Kelly + Tavon Austin = happening?

Chip Kelly probably kind of likes this guy

Tomorrow is mock draft day and given that we’re doing trades this year, I’m going to look into the possibility of the Eagles moving down and then drafting Tavon Austin.

Theoretically they could see a fair amount of value at #4, it could be the best place to pick in the top-ten. They won’t be grinding their teeth thinking, “what if?” by picking in the top two. Last year you’d get Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III in that range. This year? Not quite so good. The Eagles aren’t worrying quite so much about that.

They’ll be able to sit there and see who goes in the top three, then make a judgement call. They’d have a few options. Eric Fisher, Dion Jordan, Dee Milliner — among others — might be available. So could all of the best defensive lineman. So while the top two or three might be wishing they were picking so high another year, Philly might be in a good place to accept their lot.

Then there’s the other scenario which suggests they might feel like those options are good, but are they exponentially greater than the options a bit later on? And while they might not feel a clinical, desperate need to grab any one of Fisher, Jordan or Milliner — the chances are others might be showing a greater sense of desperation. There are a handful of teams who could use a left tackle like Fisher. Jordan might have more pure upside than anyone else in the draft and Milliner looks like a complete corner. Three premium positions, three big needs for many teams.

The Chargers have shown relative lethargy so far in trying to kick start their franchise. They let a good guard leave for a division rival in Louis Vazquez. As far as we know they barely dipped their toe into the free agent tackle market. And what else have they done? Middling moves, almost as if they see this as a longer re-building process. Philip Rivers might disagree with that approach given he has no weapons, no protection and turns 32 in December.

Moving up might actually be the last thing they’re planning. If the plan is to build through the draft, they might even move down. I still think they have to find a way to get a left tackle. Rivers is a solid quarterback. It wasn’t that long ago he was putting up good numbers and was considered one of the handful of franchise players at the position. And now he has nothing, least of all a chance to succeed. The very least they can do is get him a blind-side tackle and another target.

At #11 it’ll be Lane Johnson (if they’re lucky) or bust. Moving up seems logical. I’m just not convinced it’s what this seemingly inactive franchise wants to do. And moving up from #11 to #4 would be costly, limiting the chance to add other key parts later (receiver, corner, pass rush — all needs).

Miami could consider a move up given they lost Jake Long, while others (Cleveland, New York, Buffalo) might consider it depending on who’s left on the board. Anyone wanting a tackle as good as Fisher probably has to get ahead of Detroit, who currently stand to start Riley Reiff on the blind side (a better fit on the right side).

If the Eagles can move down a bit, would they take Tavon Austin? They already have DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Both players have also been heavily linked with trades (both to the Colts, courtesy of some obscure tweeting by Jim Isray). I just wonder if Chip Kelly would feel like he can use Austin in the same way he’s exploited many other speed merchants during his time at Oregon? Line them up everywhere. Let them make plays. Jackson and Maclin are both quick receivers, but neither were used in the way West Virginia used Austin.

Out of all the teams who could accommodate Austin, Philly seems like the best fit. Kelly’s offense has shown how to make the most of an undersized playmaker like D’Anthony Thomas. There wouldn’t necessarily have to be a ‘Tavon Austin package’. It’s already in there as a functional part of a dynamic scheme.

Let’s say the Eagles get another second or third round pick for moving down. Let’s go one further and say they come out of the draft with Austin, E.J. Manuel and Kyle Long/Menelik Watson. Suddenly you’ve solidified your offensive line, added your answer to D’Anthony Thomas and got a quarterback that can do all of the stuff Oregon’s bevy of quarterbacks did under Kelly. All quick, rare athletes for their positions. Throw in LeSean McCoy and (if healthy) Jason Peters and things could be looking up. If the ambition is to get things rocking in Philadelphia quickly, it wouldn’t be a bad start.

It’s something I’m going to look into in the new mock. Part of me still thinks Kelly might troll the entire NFL by going for a pure west coast, orthodox offense. He did appoint Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator. He does love Matt Barkley. Wouldn’t that be a turn up for the books? Either way I suspect Kelly’s Eagles, like Carroll’s Seahawks, will constantly keep us both entertained and guessing.

Note — Today’s piece isn’t exactly deep. It also isn’t Seahawks related, but you already know that if you’ve got this far. Today was a pretty hectic and significant day as I was able to tell my family that my wife is expecting our first child in September. That took up a lot of time as I’m sure you can imagine. I’ll be back on it tomorrow. Here’s a Sio Moore (LB, Connecticut) video to make up for it:

Monday draft notes: Carson Palmer destined for Arizona?

Arizona bound?

Carson Palmer to exit Oakland, enter Arizona?

Part of the draft process is to keep an eye on the other teams in the NFC West. One development today could have an impact for arguably the weakest team in the division.

Arizona ended last year a shambles. The 58-0 defeat against Seattle was the tipping point for a season that started so brightly (4-0) and ended with a whimper. At the core of everything was a mess at quarterback. John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley all took turns to be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. The end product was a complete clear-out of the coaching staff and front office.

Bruce Arians was appointed mainly off the back of his work with Andrew Luck during his rookie season. It seemed a formality that Arians would be tasked with working the same kind of magic with another rookie in Arizona.

Does today’s news regarding Carson Palmer change anything? Quite possibly.

The Cardinals basically have two striking needs. Their offensive line is poor overall and the quarterback position is a mess. Ideally they’d fill both areas this off-season, least temporarily. They’ve (typically) stayed clear of spending any money in free agency despite a decent crop of offensive tackles becoming available (plus a favourable market). And despite noises to the contrary, it’s highly unlikely Arians truly believes he’s good-to-go with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Not unless he’s been told a 4-12 season is OK in year one.

The Raiders are in the process of a humongous rebuild. It’s a hack job for the ages — they need to bring in the demolition crew and get to work over several years. Oakland are basically in expansion franchise mode right now, mostly because the previous regime gambled and lost on Carson Palmer being the missing link to a post-season appearance.

Paying Palmer $13m this year makes absolutely no sense. He has little to no chance of winning in Oakland, yet earns a significant salary for his efforts. They’re better off making a saving, accepting the situation and building around a young core. That could mean drafting a quarterback at #3 or in the third round. It could mean turning the keys over to Terrelle Pryor to see if he has any kind of shot to make it in the league. None of these options are ideal, but clinging onto an expensive ageing veteran at $13m makes little sense.

Palmer might earn $13m this year, but he’ll take up $15m on the cap in total. The Raiders can save $6m by moving on. That money is better off sitting in the front office, waiting to be pushed forward into next year. They need a youth movement with heavy competition, much like Seattle. In fact the Seahawks should created the blueprint for any team facing the same bleak future Seattle faced in 2010.

Oakland has to tear everything down and start again. I think GM Reggie McKenzie probably would’ve loved to do that last year, but he didn’t have a single pick in the first two days of the 2012 draft. And without the opportunity to get busy, what choice did he have put to meander onwards? Now he has a shot to make this his team. To put down some roots. He’s another Green Bay exile and will share some of John Schneider’s visions. I can’t see him clinging to Palmer in the hope he creates a miracle. A revolution is required.

If or when Palmer hits the market, Arizona seems like the ideal home. He could be another Kurt Warner. It’d buy some time for Arians in the toughest division in football (and it really is, let’s be right). It’d also allow him to concentrate on repairing that weak offensive line at #7 with either Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Chance Warmack. Throw in a tight end in round two (Zach Ertz?) or even a running back (Eddie Lacy?) and suddenly they have an offense that looks like it might be able to compete.

They could still draft a quarterback later on as a longer term possibility, but Palmer would provide some veteran leadership in a one or two year rental situation. While it might only produce a six or seven win season for the Cardinals, at least the Arians/Steve Keim era would have some forward momentum. And the Seahawks have shown that starting a new regime with two 7-9 seasons isn’t necessarily a road to constant mediocrity.

One realistic possibility could be the idea of going Fisher/Johnson and then Mike Glennon in round two. Certainly Glennon has the kind of arm strength Arians is used to working with. There’s something to be said for not ‘needing’ to panic at quarterback, however. I think Seattle showed that. You’d have to feel very comfortable about Glennon to go in that direction. And Arians hasn’t really hand-picked Ben Roethlisberger or Andrew Luck, so we don’t know that arm strength is the defining factor here. I doubt the rest of the division would be too concerned about that prospect of facing Glennon, even with Fitzgerald as a target. However, the Cardinals will conduct a private work-out with the NC State quarterback tomorrow.

If the Cardinals do add Palmer, Johnson and Ertz to their offense, it could provide a fourth wheel to the blossoming monster truck named the NFC West. They’d still be favourites to finish 4th in the division, but they’d certainly offer a few blooded noses along the way and re-establish some momentum. Rest assured nobody will be particularly concerned about the Cardinals if they’re starting Drew Stanton at quarterback. And I say that as a fan. But I’m really only a fan because his second name is very similar to mine.

Big day for Barkley

Wednesday is a crucial day for Matt Barkley. After an off-season of constant hand-wringing about his arm strength (can anyone remember the comparison to Kellen Moore a few weeks ago? Who said that again?), he finally gets a chance to gain some momentum.

There’s no doubting he’ll perform well. After all, when’s the last time you heard a negative report from a college pro-day? And despite a lot of negativity around his physical performance in college, I suspect there will be a handful of teams ready to put their stock in his talents.

Don’t count out the Jaguars here. I think there’s an extremely strong chance they’ll move down from #2 with teams like Buffalo looking to get hold of Geno Smith. They could possibly move down again from the #8 range to accumulate further picks. Don’t forget how Carroll and Schneider built their defense in Seattle — the core didn’t come in the first round. The Jaguars could search for role players (LEO, interior size, talented safety) in rounds 2-3.

Gus Bradley will surely be aware of Barkley’s talents having spent a lot of time with Carroll. I have no doubt whatsoever that had Russellmania never happened in Seattle, they’d be targeting Barkley to lead Seattle’s offense. We’ll see what happens. Yet as far as matches go, I think Barkley in Jacksonville isn’t an unrealistic proposition. The hoopla about their presence at the West Virginia pro-day looked a bit of a smoke screen to me (RE: Geno Smith). We’ll see what presence they have at USC on Wednesday.

Simon shines

Ohio State’s John Simon is a favourite on this blog and it was good to see he enjoyed a productive work-out today in front of scouts. He’s been struggling with a slight injury since the Senior Bowl.

If you’re wondering what all the fuss is about, here’s a refresher:

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