Category: Front Page News (Page 77 of 367)

This is the seventh part of a guest-post series written by Curtis Allen

#7 defensive line

Players under contract for 2021: Carlos Dunlap, Rasheem Green, LJ Collier, Alton Robinson, Darrell Taylor, Jarran Reed

Players under contract for 2022: LJ Collier, Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson

Restricted Free Agents: Poona Ford

Unrestricted Free Agents: Benson Mayowa, Damontre Moore, Brendan Jackson

Exclusive Rights Free Agents: Bryan Mone

Players Signed to Futures Contracts: Cedric Lattimore

Salary Cap Notes

2021 Cap Commitment: $34.6 million (19.4% of $178m cap)

Carlos Dunlap’s entire salary of $14.1m non-guaranteed

Jarran Reed’s $8.475m salary non-guaranteed ($5m cap hit if cut or traded)
 
Available Free Agents

2020 Season Overview

The defensive line provided a decidedly uneven performance in 2020.

In the interior, Jarran Reed again proved he is in the ‘good but not great’ group of defensive linemen. Early in the season, he had a strip sack against Dallas to give the Seahawks some easy points and a dominant half against the Vikings. Absent those highlights his first few games were uninspiring. He struggled to elevate his teammates. However, his play blossomed in the second half of the season.

Poona Ford took another step forward. The Seahawks moved him around the line a bit and he provided some nice interior pass rushing. He is an easy choice to tender and may even garner an extension if the front office feels he has more room to grow and wants to get him locked into a contract before he takes another step in 2021.
 
Brian Mone rewarded the team’s faith in him with some fine play. He was stout at the point of attack but added some occasional pass rush quickness for such a huge man, which was a bonus. The team felt good enough about him that they chose him over Snacks Harrison late in the season. He has a spot locked down for 2021.

Snacks Harrison spent more time on the practice squad getting into shape than on the field and did not contribute very much.

On the outside, Benson Mayowa was acquired to help but with early season injuries and some strange game day roster choices, he was forced to play a high volume of snaps and faltered trying to take on that much work after a career of being a part time player. He returned to his normal standard of play when relieved of the bulk of the snaps by Dunlap.

Alton Robinson contributed four sacks and did some nice things in the run game at times in his rookie season. He displayed a knack for sacking the quarterback in key situations, which is a confidence-builder for anyone, let alone a rookie player. 

Most of his plays were cleanup type sacks, coming off his blocker after the downfield coverage has caused the quarterback to hold the ball. He needs to develop into more of a ‘pressure creator’ but the start is encouraging.

Darrell Taylor was a disappointment, not seeing the field for a single snap due to his health. He did get on the practice field at the very end of the season and was praised by his coach for looking like he belongs, for what that is worth.

L.J. Collier and Rasheem Green had the occasional notable play at the 5-Tech position but overall did not do enough to inspire much confidence. The position was a real weak spot for the unit in 2020.

Damontre Moore showed some decent play in spots but had his season derailed with a suspension.

Carlos Dunlap was manna from heaven. He recorded five sacks and 18 pressures in eight games and lifted the entire unit. Particularly enjoyable was watching him terrorize Kyler Murray in the Week 11 Arizona game with six pressures and two sacks. He sacked him to finish the game the week after Murray had pulled off a last-second miracle against Buffalo.

A big picture look at the season totals from this defensive line group show some superior numbers over the prior season:

– An increase in sacks, from 19.5 to 30.5 in 2020

– An increase in pressures, from 99 to 124 in 2020

– Team rushing defense dropped a full yard per carry, from 4.9 to 3.9 in 2020

But if there were ever a need for context to understand the numbers, it would be this season for this position group. Because the truth is this group had an extremely difficult 2020.

A good chunk of these numbers did not necessarily come from better play. They were rather a direct result of the opposition exploiting the Seahawks’ poor offseason in constructing this unit and their weakness in the defensive backfield.

How did this come about? 

Early in the season, the Seahawks’ offense was blazing and applying some serious pressure on opposing offenses. Struggling to keep up, they took to the air. The result was they often were able to score just as easily and at times even more quickly than the Seahawks could. No lead was safe. This exposed the defensive line and the backfield and modelled a plan of attack for the rest of the league’s offensive coordinators to tee off on. 

Across the entire season, offenses called a remarkably high rate of passes on this defense. Even run heavy teams were abandoning their scripts and chucking the ball downfield as much as possible.

The opposition threw the ball an incredible 63% of plays. For some perspective, even in the pass-happy NFL, few offenses called for passes at a higher clip than what the Seahawks defense faced.

As a result, the running game was shoved into the background and opportunities for pressures and sacks dramatically increased.

What does a closer look reveal about how the defensive line performed in these two areas?

Rushing defense

The defensive line faced the seventh fewest number of rushing attempts and yielded the fifth fewest yards per rush last season.

But were they truly successful? It was a real mixed bag this year.
 
There were some fantastic run stops at times on defense:

– Week 2 vs the Patriots. The goal-line stand to win the game.

– Week 5 vs the Vikings. Stopping a two-point conversion and a key stop on fourth down to give the offense the ball back. Both plays were the difference in the game as the offense drove the field to win it.

– Week 11 vs the Cardinals. Holding them to only 57 yards on the ground in a right-the-ship win.

But for every successful performance, the run defense experienced a critical failure:

– Week 5 vs the Vikings. The Special Teams unit twice pinned the Vikings’ offense inside their own five. Is the defense able to keep them pinned and win the field position game? They are not. Both drives feature the Vikings bludgeoning their way out of trouble with their running game and driving down the field to score. Alexander Mattison filled in for the injured Dalvin Cook and proceeded to run just as well on this defense. Rushing yards allowed on those two drives alone — 91. Unacceptable.

– Week 7 vs the Cardinals. The defense has held the Cardinals to 109 rushing yards in regulation. Not bad. In overtime, the Seahawks’ offense is stymied and punts. The Cardinal offense comes out and runs for 47 yards on three rushes to get into field goal range for the winning attempt.

– Week 13 vs the Giants. In the third quarter, Seahawks are behind 8-5. The offense attempts to convert a 4th and 1 that fails at about midfield. The Giants take possession and gain 42 yards on four rushes and score the winning touchdown.

– The playoff game vs the Rams. Los Angeles comes in starting a backup quarterback with Jared Goff behind him with a busted thumb. Clearly the Rams were going to rely heavily on their running game. The defensive line had no answers as the Rams gashed them for 164 yards on the ground.

While this unit had some success this season, the fact that they were fifth in the NFL in yards per rush should not be pointed to by anyone to prove that this was a top unit. They had some good overall numbers and some important stops. But they also had some aggravating collapses in key moments. 

So, were they good or bad? The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Pass rushing

How well did this unit rush the passer in 2020?

The defensive line’s pass rush performance this season is best compartmentalized into 2 sections:

Games 1-7 Before Dunlap (BD) and games 8-16 After Dunlap (AD)

Observe:

– Average blitzes per game BD: 26.57
– Average blitzes per game AD: 23.00
 
– Average defensive line sacks per game BD: 1.14
– Average defensive line sacks per game AD: 2.45
 
– Average defensive line pressure rate BD: 14.0% pressure rate
– Average defensive line pressure rate AD: 22.1% pressure rate
 
– Average team sacks per game BD: 1.71
– Average team sacks per game AD: 3.70
  
To summarize, after acquiring Dunlap they cut back their blitzing 10% across the board, doubled their defensive line sacks, the defensive line was 50% more effective in getting pressures and they doubled their overall team sacks. That is some serious in-season improvement.

While we may not be able to chalk every single increase in pass rush success to Carlos Dunlap’s arrival, the line of delineation is so clear it is obvious that he had a significant impact on the defensive line’s ability to create problems for the quarterback.

Jarran Reed in particular came to life:

– BD: 1 sack / 7 pressures in seven games
– AD: 5.5 sacks / 15 pressures in nine games

He also added two sacks and three pressures in the playoff game vs LA.

Poona Ford likewise put up dramatically better numbers.

Again, there were more factors than just Dunlap. The defensive backs getting healthy and getting a jolt from D.J. Reed, a defensive accountability meeting that seemed to energize the unit and playing some teams with passing offenses that are not world class in the second half of the season were all contributing factors.

There is no doubt though — having a real live force at pass rusher unlocked all kinds of channels and allowed the other players to not constantly have to face double teams they cannot handle.

Offseason Questions to Address

1. How will the team attack the passer in 2021?

The Seahawks blitzed an incredible 403 times in 2020. The defensive line frequently relied on outside sources Jamal Adams, Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright to provide pressure.

After acquiring Dunlap, the Seahawks reeled back Wagner’s blitzing to more normal levels. Let us not kid ourselves though. They still blitzed at a higher clip with Dunlap then they have in recent years. They continued to send Adams just as much as they did before.

Was blitzing this much an intended use of their linebackers and safeties? Or was it a product of necessity after being unable to secure talent on the defensive line that can get push without regular assistance?

All three of their blitzers in 2020 will have their futures with the Seahawks considered this offseason. Wright is a free agent. Wagner has a major cap hit in 2021. Adams will want a huge contract extension.

If the Seahawks are considering moving on from any or all of them, where is the pass rush going to come from? 

From their replacements continuing to blitz? 

From the improvement of the defensive linemen already on the roster? 

Or from bolstering the defensive line with new acquisitions? 

Likely it is some combination of all these things. 

Who stays and who goes? Who provides production at the best value?

This is a critical determination that needs to be made. It could plot the entire course of the offseason. 

2. Will the front office finally change its offseason mode of operation for addressing the defensive line?

After witnessing the defensive line be such a team liability in 2019, it was particularly encouraging to hear from the Seahawks leadership that they intended to address the issue as a priority in the offseason.

Hope slowly and agonizingly turned to despair with the realization that the defensive line moves they made strongly resembled the moves they made the previous offseason and foreshadowed another dreadful performance from the group:

– They did not return their best pass rusher from the prior season (2019: Frank Clark / 2020: Jadeveon Clowney)

– They overpaid a past-his-prime speed rusher who had little effect and spent most of the year hurt (19: Ziggy Ansah / 20:Bruce Irvin)

– They banked on young players making a real contribution and were left wanting (19: L.J. Collier and Rasheem Green / 20: L.J. Collier and Rasheem Green)

– The team reached for a lineman on a high draft pick due to need and counted on him contributing right away. Unfortunately, he was severely limited by injury and ended the season as an unknown for the following season (19: L.J. Collier / 20: Darrell Taylor)

– They scrambled to fill their roster at the position and resorted to bringing in replacement-level players (19: Branden Jackson / 20: Branden Jackson, Damontre Moore)

The Seahawks began the season with one of the NFL’s worst position group units, after fielding one of its worst the prior season.

Legitimate questions asked by the press about this group were met with unsatisfactory answers:

– Lower tier free agents were given healthy raises. The sack numbers they recorded for other teams in the prior year as rotational players were half-heartedly pointed to as proof they could be centerpieces of the pass rush effort

– Young unproven players were being discussed as real contributors

– Excitement about the Jamal Adams trade was proffered as evidence the aggressive attacking energy was back in the building

Then the season started.

The results were predictable, just as they were in 2019. 

In the first seven games the defensive line was able to produce only eight sacks on 328 passing attempts for a miniscule 2.4% sack rate. Teams were burning this defense at an all-time record pace.

Even teams with poor offensive lines were emboldened to drop their quarterback and have him regularly throw downfield. A banged up defensive backfield was powerless to provide adequate coverage. The talented linebacker group was trying to hold the defense together with both hands. They had no counter.

Every bit of joy generated by the offense’s brilliance was automatically tempered with dread that the defense would quickly concede just as many points.

A bold gambit to trade two prime draft assets to acquire Darrell Taylor generated excitement that the team was making a serious investment in the pass rush. It slow burned into frustration as his injury recovery dragged into the season and felt like sandpaper rubbing an already sore pass rush spot raw.

Coaches were conducting therapy sessions in broad daylight, assuring reporters, fans and probably themselves that the defense could not possibly be this bad. 

It was a ticking bomb that threatened to implode the season.

Then one of the most fortunate bounces of the prior season bounced the Seahawks’ way again in 2020.

They were bailed out of a disaster of their own making by the grace of a star player falling out with his team. Carlos Dunlap became the 2020 version of Jadeveon Clowney.

Once again, the Seahawks were able to take advantage of a team desperate to unload an impact player and willing to settle for less.

One area where the seasons differed though? The Dunlap trade did not come until after the Seahawks had already played seven games. In some ways the Seahawks would spend the rest of the season trying to recover and rebalance the team after a disastrous defensive start.

The Seahawks cannot count on this kind of luck three seasons in a row. They must act more decisively to address such a critical unit this offseason.

They must restore balance to the defense.

A fortunate bounce like this should be the thing that sends this team on the path to a top seed and a Super Bowl. Not the path to minimum acceptable adequacy.

3. What will they do at the 5-tech position?

Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier were penciled in as a rotation at the spot and were counted on to hold down that side of the defensive line.

Their combined numbers in 2020: Five sacks, 29 pressures and 32 tackles. Nothing to write home about.

Their versatility to be able to slide inside and play the 3-tech position on passing downs was frequently pointed to but neither of them were able to take advantage of the newfound effectiveness of their line mates in the second half of the season to really put a stamp on their roles.

Rasheem Green is a free agent in 2022. He endured a neck injury that appeared to be very serious and lost six games. After recovering, he slowly but surely was given more snaps than Collier but lacked a real signature moment or any kind of flair to show that he was going to regularly be a factor on the defense.  Will he ever be able to reach the potential the team saw in him when they drafted him?

L.J. Collier had some notable moments early but as the season wore on and Green got healthy, his role started to be reduced in the lineup. Are the Seahawks considering 2020 his ‘rookie season’? Can they honestly expect a big leap in 2021? Collier has yet to show that he will ever provide first-round production on the field.

What do the Seahawks do at this position? Do they bank on these two players for the third year in a row? Or do they commit more resources there?

Would the team consider having Carlos Dunlap or Alton Robinson spend some time on that side?

Will the Seahawks make an investment in the draft or free agency?

Whatever route they decide to take, the 5-Tech position must be better in 2021.
 
4. What does the future hold for Carlos Dunlap and Jarran Reed?

Both players have large 2021 cap hits and are out of contract in 2022. 

It might make sense to look at these two players as a matched pair. The options then are keeping both (maybe even extending both) and making some adjustments to the other spots on the line or jettisoning them and rebuilding the whole unit from scratch.

There will be a strong pull to stay with the familiar and for good reason. A complete tear down would be too much to bite off for one offseason and these two cannot be easily replaced. But nothing should be off the table.

Carlos Dunlap clearly had a major impact on the defense. It will be very intriguing to see what he can do with a full offseason and a full season with the team in 2021. There are a greater number of potential positive outcomes with Dunlap on the team in 2021 than with him not. 

His entire salary in 2021 is not guaranteed, which gives the Seahawks all kinds of options. Given their minimal outlay to acquire him (a 7th round pick and $1m of dead money from BJ Finney’s contract) the Seahawks could entertain every possibility:

– They could release him and save the entire $14m salary (unlikely)

– They could pay him his full salary, see how Robinson and Taylor develop and decide in 2022 how much to offer or let him go

– They could extend him now, reasoning he has been very durable, has had a fantastic effect on the team and fits what they are trying to do in Seattle

– There is a fourth option. They could see what Dunlap could fetch in the trade market. Given their lack of cap room and draft capital, it might be wise to listen to offers and see what is available to them. $14m of cap room freed up and some added draft stock could provide the Seahawks more flexibility.

Would he generate much of a return in trade? The odds are not strong they could land enough to consider it.

If you trade him you are back to depleting your most needy unit again. It would be a risk for sure. However, if the right deal comes along, in this climate the Seahawks would be foolish not to listen to what is out there. It does not cost anything to explore a little.

What about Reed? He is the 18th highest paid interior defensive lineman in per-year average.

It would appear he does not have the skill and profile to consistently create disruption on his own. However, he can regularly take advantage when he is lined up next to other players who demand attention and that is not inconsiderable.

The Seahawks clearly love his leadership and the way he carries himself. 

It also needs to be factored that Reed eats snaps for breakfast. He can consistently take 75% of the team’s snaps. That is not an ability you can just get anywhere. A potential replacement like Poona Ford has only handled 58% of the snaps at the most in his career. The gap between 58% and 75% is bigger than it appears. If they part with Reed, they will likely need two players to share the workload he provides.

Is that worth the $13.475m cap hit that he is on the books for in 2021?  The Seahawks need to create some cap room and $8.475m of his salary is not guaranteed. 

Do they consider trading Reed and eating the $5m cap hit? Would they get a strong enough return to offset losing a big piece of their interior?

Or do they look at keeping him, reasoning a full year with Dunlap and improvement from the other young players can elevate him back to a 10-sack season?

5. How much can they count on Darrell Taylor in 2021?

This question will linger all offseason. We will very likely hear plenty of positive news emanating from VMAC about his recovery and progress off and on all summer. Do not let yourself get sucked in and develop oversized expectations for the upcoming season.

The Seahawks were not able to get a single look at him in game action in 2020. Two or three practices are better than nothing but it does not give the team a solid basis for hope that he can have an impact next season.

Even if he is physically ready to play, he will still have to go through all the rookie adjustments and prove he can handle the rigors of playing in the NFL. Just like any rookie he will have to justify his high draft standing.

It is possible no single thing would help the Seahawks more in 2021 than Taylor breaking through and terrorizing the edges. 

It would complement the interior rush and help the defensive backs. It would also reduce their dependence on blitzing. 

It would enable them to be aggressive in the 2022 offseason building their roster. 
Taylor rewarding the investment the team has made and the patience the fans have displayed would be a fantastic success story for next season.

But given what they know of Taylor, right here and now, is it not the course of wisdom to prepare for him to not have a major role in 2021? Or to anticipate that there might need to be some managing of his snaps for the first half of the season to assure he is fully healthy?

It may be worthwhile to have Benson Mayowa’s phone number saved. Bringing a part time player like that back in adds depth and takes some pressure off the situation. If he comes back at a reasonable price, he may be a worthwhile hedge against the young talent on the roster.
 
Rob’s thoughts on the draft class and potential targets

At defensive tackle, the numbers have been depleted with several big names opting not to declare for the 2021 draft. That said, some intriguing options remain.

Alim McNeill is an outstanding athlete with the ability to play nose or three technique. He has star potential and a personality to match — as evidenced in my interview with him.

Frankly, whoever lands McNeill will be counting their lucky stars.

Levi Onwuzurike will likely go in the top-40 as a penetrating three-technique with a great motor. Daviyon Nixon is a master disruptor who racked up TFL’s for Iowa.

Christian Barmore had a hot and cold spell at Alabama but ended strongly enough to give his stock a boost ahead of the draft. Jalen Twyman and Jay Tufele are forgotten men in this draft after opting out of the 2020 season. Tommy Togiai, who I’m due to interview this week, is an incredibly powerful, dynamic interior presence with great energy and effort. Darius Stills, who I’ve already interviewed, could be a mid-round gem.

There’s a chance to find value within this group. Some good players could last well into day two. Seattle’s lack of picks, however, makes for a frustrating outlook.

Milton Williams, who I also interviewed recently, is a nice inside/out project.

In terms of defensive end and EDGE talent, expect Azeez Olujari, Jaelen Phillips and Kwity Paye to leave the board quickly. Gregory Rousseau opting out has hampered his stock slightly, while Carlos Basham’s lack of length and strange use at Wake Forest tempers some of his obvious talent and athletic potential. Joe Tryon also didn’t play in 2020 but possesses a fantastic frame, knows how to win with his hands, power and speed and he should also be a top-45 pick.

All of that group would be appealing if the Seahawks were picking in round one. While it’s true that a lack of testing is creating a great unknown, the athletic potential of all five players is unquestioned. There’s no mystery there. Phillips was once one of the most coveted High School recruits in recent history, Paye and Basham were on Bruce Feldman’s freak list, Rousseau just looks the part, Olujari’s play is reminiscent of Cliff Avril and just look at Tryon during our interview, published yesterday.

Pairing one of these players with Carlos Dunlap would’ve created quite an exciting prospect for 2021. Alas, it isn’t to be.

In terms of options later on — sadly Patrick Jones’ poor Senior Bowl and short arms make him a less attractive option even though he was excellent at Pittsburgh.

Notre Dame’s Adetokunbo Ogundeji might be appealing. He’s 6-4 3/8 and 256lbs with 35 1/4 inch arms and an 85 3/8 inch wingspan. He ran a 4.21 short shuttle at SPARQ.

Janarius Robinson made headlines during Senior Bowl measurements with an insane 87 inch wingspan. He’s 6-5, 266lbs and also has 35 3/4 inch arms. He ran a 4.27 short shuttle at SPARQ. However, he’s so raw he’s a steak tartare.

This feels like a pass rush class where taking a player early would be the wise thing to do for any team in the market. With Seattle’s desperately low number of picks, it’s perhaps more likely they will focus on the offensive line with their first selection, then look at the deep receiver and cornerback class after that on day three — with running back another option.

And while it’s a very valid point that this draft is highly unusual with no combine and limited interaction with prospects, there’s still a long list of players I’d want to take a chance on who could go a long way to provide the Seahawks with young, cheap talent — which is what they need with so many holes and very little cap space.

If you missed my interview with Joe Tryon yesterday, check it out below…

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I am writing this piece because there is a common thought among Seahawks fans and media that a logical solution to the off-season challenge faced by the team, is to borrow on the credit card.

After all, Over the Cap says they have $118,526,756 in effective cap space for 2022. Using some of that money to ease the problems in 2021 makes sense — to a degree.

However, the Seahawks currently have $1,751,354 in effective cap space for 2021. So a couple of restructures or extensions won’t be enough.

Thus, the Seahawks are faced with a choice. Either they go down the path of extreme borrowing, or they make some tough personnel decisions. Or a combination of both.

In my own off-season plan I suggested trading Bobby Wagner because I don’t think he is worth a $17m salary in 2021 and a $20m salary in 2022 — especially a year after drafting a middle linebacker in the first round (a pick that could’ve been used to fill one of Seattle’s many existing holes this off-season).

I also suggested trading Jamal Adams. I don’t think he’s a great scheme fit and I don’t think he’s worth the $18-20m a year contract he is probably expecting (as explained in more detail in my own off-season plan).

Too much resource has been used on two non-premium positions. For me, the Seahawks should start to shift their resources to the offensive and defensive line and support their $35m quarterback with good protection and an assortment of weapons.

To me that’s logical. It’s only semi-controversial because it includes a franchise stalwart and a recently-acquired big name. Yet everything else — moving them, shifting resource — is viable.

Especially at a time when the quarterback is making it very clear he expects the team to do things differently.

Corbin Smith, a writer for the Seahawk Maven website, has put together his own plan which makes the case for what I would refer to as ‘extreme borrowing’.

I hope he doesn’t mind me using his work in this way. My intention isn’t to insult or dismiss Corbin, I just want to use the numbers involved to explain why I personally don’t believe a high level of borrowing is feasible.

Let me be clear. I am writing this article not as a personal attack or an attempt to challenge anyone’s authority or credentials. Upon reading this, I do not want anyone attacking the writer on twitter, or rubbing this article in his face.

I am not a cap expert, so please feel free to correct anything glaring in the comments section.

Seattle’s first move should be turning a large chunk of Wilson and Wagner’s 2021 base salary into a signing bonus. Under normal circumstances, general managers don’t like to do this because it increases cap hits in future seasons. But even with Wilson’s cap hit for 2022 jumping to north of $40 million and Wagner’s cap hit escalating to $26 million as a result of the restructure, the benefit outweighs the risk here because the Seahawks instantly creates close to $18 million in cap relief.

It might sound plausible to create $18m of cap space here but there’s a significant consequence. Bobby Wagner’s 2022 cap hit ($26m) would make him the 14th highest paid player in the league. He would be earning more than the total average of Myles Garrett’s salary. Aaron Donald’s average salary is “only” $22.5m.

With Wilson’s cap hit also increasing by $3m (presumably with other consequences further down the line) you would be committing an extra $9m on the cap in 2022 and paying Wilson and Wagner a combined $66m.

That’s only the start, however.

Contract extensions allow teams the opportunity to convert existing base salaries into a signing bonus and spread that money out of the new years added on an extension. This consequently would lower the salary cap hit for 2021. In this scenario, Schneider gives Lockett a two-year extension through 2023 and creates $4 million in cap space, gives Dunlap a two-year extension through 2023 and creates $6 million in cap space, and adds an extra year onto Brown’s deal to open up $2.5 million.

If Tyler Lockett is offered a contract extension, he will probably expect a deal similar to the ones signed by Robert Woods ($16.25m) and Cooper Kupp ($15.75m) within the last six months. The proposal is a two year extension. Let’s say Lockett agrees terms on a deal worth $16m a year, splitting the difference between Woods and Kupp. In order to lower his cap hit this year by $4m, you will probably need to split the difference.

This would mean paying Lockett — who turns 30 this year — approximately $18m in 2022 and 2023, on top of the $66m you’ve already committed to Wilson and Wagner. You would now have spent about $27m of your available 2022 cap space.

A two-year contract extension for Carlos Dunlap would take him through to the age of 34. Let’s project, not unreasonably, a deal worth $10m a year for him. In order to lower his cap hit by $6m in 2021, again you would have to push that down the line. It could mean, without some salary cap magic, paying him about $13m in 2022 — when he’ll be 33.

You’ve now spent $40m of your free cap space for 2022 and in total you’ve spent about $97m on four players all over the age of 30.

Extending Duane Brown’s deal for an extra year will depend on whether he has any interest in committing to such an agreement. He’ll be 37 in 2022. His cap hit this year is $13m. Presumably he wouldn’t be taking a pay cut to stay for another season. Thus, to save the money this year, you might be committing around $15m to him next year.

You’re up to $53m in 2022 spending at this point, with another player over 30 added to the list.

Contrary to prior moves, extending Adams could cut into Seattle’s current available cap space, depending on the structure of the new contract. In this case, the Seahawks sign the All-Pro safety to a four-year, $72 million extension with a $12 million signing bonus, locking him up through 2025. In this simulation, his cap hit for 2021 receives a slight bump, jumping from $9.86 million to $11.86 million, leaving the franchise with around $32.5 million in cap room.

This is a contract worth $18m a year for Jamal Adams. Quite aside from the fact you can argue no safety is worth that amount — even one you blitz 8.2 times a game to gain 0.8 sacks — this further depletes your resources for 2022. You’ve now spent $71m of your $118,526,756 in effective cap space.

By this point alone, before you’ve signed any free agents this year, you’re down to $46m in cap space for 2022.

In Smith’s piece, he goes on to sign Corey Linsley and T.Y. Hilton, further depleting the available resources in 2022. Linsley’s deal is worth $12m a year and Hilton’s is worth about $8m. That’s potentially a further $20m reduction on the 2022 cap. There may well be an ‘out’ within Hilton’s deal — but we have to account for it.

Currently, the Seahawks have 19 contracted players for next year. Extending Brown, Dunlap, Adams and Lockett takes that total to 23. Linsley and Hilton take it to 25.

Let’s be generous and say they sign three other players in free agency on more than short term deals, plus make five draft picks who all make the roster.

You would still need to add 20 players just to get to a 53 man roster, with each earning an average of $1.3m a year.

You might be able to cut or trade players away to save money but the point is clear — so much borrowing puts you in a real bind.

By pushing so many of your problems into next season, you are arguably taking a far more extreme approach than making two big trades. You are investing years into an ageing roster that has won just one playoff game in four seasons. You would have very little flexibility to move on from these players without absorbing dead cap hits.

This is the kind of move New Orleans has made recently, with an ageing Drew Brees and time running out to win another Super Bowl. It’s also what the Cowboys did in the back-end of the Tony Romo era.

Some of this manoeuvring is going to be necessary. Most teams in the league are going to need to restructure some contracts this off-season. Doing it to this extent though can put you in cap hell very quickly.

And this is before we even consider the difficulty of extending or restructuring multiple contracts within the next four weeks, prior to the start of the new league year. Plus, is the addition of one ageing receiver and one big name center, likely to be the kind of ambition to satisfy the currently quite dissatisfied franchise quarterback? Especially when he sees Jordan Simmons starting at left guard?

There are other issues I have with Corbin’s plan. If you’re committing so much money to Bobby Wagner and with the investment in Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton also locked in, the use of their top pick on another linebacker was nearly enough to make my head explode (sorry Corbin). If the Seahawks need another linebacker, they have to find a way to do it on the cheap.

I’d also quibble about trading away Jarran Reed, the second best defensive lineman on a not-great D-line, to replace him with a player on a futures contract. Also, I’m not convinced a $16.5m investment in Hilton (who turns 32 in November) is the best use of resources either.

That said, I’m fully supportive of re-signing Richard Sherman and adding Linsley. Two thumbs up.

Again, I hope this article isn’t seen as a ‘slam’ of Corbin. Unfortunately it just provided a convenient opportunity for me to try and explain my own position on credit card borrowing, which so far I probably haven’t been able to lay out in a sufficient way.

My own off-season plan is there for all to see. I’m open to being challenged on it if people want to.

Meanwhile, my latest interview in the draft series is now available. It’s with Joe Tryon, a highly athletic and talented pass rusher from Washington.

If you’ve been able to share these interviews in the past, please do so again. And don’t forget to like the video on YouTube and subscribe to the channel. There are several interviews on there already, along with the podcasts.

I’ll be publishing an interview with Minnesota cornerback Benjamin St. Juste soon, plus I’m scheduled to speak to Ohio State’s Tommy Togiai in the week.

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Yesterday, Colin Cowherd mentioned in passing that the Seahawks were going to be targeting O-line in the draft…

This isn’t an explosive revelation. I think most people would expect Seattle to do this. Cowherd’s connection to Russell Wilson, as evidenced by his comments earlier in the week, make this info more interesting than it otherwise would’ve been though.

It’s not a stretch to think the Seahawks have told Wilson they intend to draft a left guard with their top pick, following his recent complaints about the offensive line, and that this information has fed its way to Cowherd.

I still believe that a major transfer of resources from linebacker and safety to the trenches is required, otherwise the Seahawks are destined to face a very similar fate in 2021 that they’ve experienced over the last few years. This could, in turn, accelerate Wilson’s desire to move on.

However, whatever they do or don’t do in the coming weeks, drafting a guard with their top pick makes a lot of sense this year.

The need matches with the strength of the draft.

In order to try and emphasise this, I’ve put together a rudimental horizontal board.

This is completely underdeveloped. With limited or no testing data it’s going to be virtually impossible to deliver anything close to a worthwhile board throughout this process unfortunately. I don’t run a scouting department, I run baths for my kids. I haven’t seen every eligible player, although I have watched all of the names listed on the board and feel comfortable passing comment on them.

There are several players who would otherwise move up or down based on the combine. So take this with a rather large pinch of salt. It’s really just an opportunity to show what I currently think about certain players and emphasise the point I’m making on the offensive line.

Click on the image below to make it bigger:

I have 11 interior offensive linemen listed in either the second or third round. The four players listed in the third round are fringe second rounders and I’d be comfortable drafting any in the second frame.

It’s not the only area of strength. At receiver their are many good options too. If they had the three picks in the first two rounds they had last year, they could easily address guard, center and receiver with this draft class.

They could’ve done that a year ago too. It was another strong WR/OL draft (plus running back) but by pouring more resource into linebacker and trading up for a pass rusher with serious injury flags, they opted to go in a different direction.

Now they’ll have to find options with fewer resources in terms of cap and picks. The Seahawks face a real challenge this year, as do many franchises, to create the kind recourse necessary to plug holes and find ways to make improvements.

While it’s true that the NFL will find it harder than ever to evaluate prospects and make the best possible decisions in the draft, it’s also true that the draft is the best opportunity to fill holes on the cheap. For example, Jordyn Brooks (drafted in the late first round) had a cap-hit of $2,224,656 in 2020. Damien Lewis’ cap hit was just $891,298. Their combined salaries cost less than Jacob Hollister. It’s hard to find that kind of value in free agency, probably even in a tumultuous year like this.

What type of guard will they look for?

I don’t expect the Seahawks to go full-Rams with Shane Woldren’s arrival. After all, Mike Solari is still the offensive live coach. I think we’ll see a meshing of ideas and concepts.

I suspect they will try to emulate what worked with Lewis. He was huge and had the +33 inch arms they like, he had an extremely successful college career, he was an explosive tester and he excelled at the Senior Bowl — grading out as one of the top-performers at any position.

From Quinn Meinerz to Trey Smith to Alex Leatherwood and Aaron Banks — they all performed at the Senior Bowl and have some of the traits that made Lewis a success-story as a rookie. D’Ante Smith also had a brilliant Senior Bowl and can play guard or tackle. Ben Cleveland hurt his ankle in Mobile and only participated on day one but he’s an incredible monster of a blocker.

If they want to target a center, there are options there too.

The simple fact is this 2021 draft is well set up for the Seahawks to find a starting left guard, possibly even after trading down from #56, much in the way they were able to with Damien Lewis.

Now, it’s just a question of who it’ll be.

And that’s one of the things we get to talk about for the next two months.

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Before getting into the mock here are some things to note…

Quarterback trades

We’re likely to see a number of deals completed before the draft in April. Today, Carson Wentz was traded to Indianapolis. For the purpose of this latest projection, I’m going with two further trades:

Sam Darnold to Chicago for a second round pick
I think the Jets are ready to trade Sam Darnold and they’ll seek the best offer. They might have to settle for a second round pick but that enables them to move on.

Jimmy Garoppolo to New England for a third round pick
The Niners appear all set to shift Jimmy G and go in a different direction. If/when that happens, a return to New England feels inevitable.

The other trades explained

I have the Panthers trading up from #8 to #3 with Miami to select a quarterback. Reports are suggesting a level of impatience from owner David Tepper to find a legit franchise quarterback. If a deal for Deshaun Watson, undoubtedly Plan A, doesn’t materialise, I suspect the Panthers will trade up to select a player in the top-five.

I’ve got the 49ers trading up three spots from #12 to #9 in a deal with Denver. The Cowboys are facing a somewhat uncertain quarterback situation and we shouldn’t assume that Dak Prescott will make a full recovery before the season starts, or that the Cowboys will commit to him at the cost of a second franchise tag. Therefore in this mock I have the Niners jumping ahead of the Cowboys to select a QB.

The final first round trade involves Arizona moving up six spots from #16 to #10 in order to draft a dynamic mismatch tight end.

The mock

First you’ll see the projection in list form followed by blurbs on each pick. Then I’ll have some notes specifically on the Seahawks.

This is a very unique draft due to the lack of a combine and the number of players who opted out of the 2020 season. There’s also a somewhat bleak outlook currently for quarterbacks in the 2022 class. Therefore, we might see teams go after the top QB’s early, plus the ‘blue-chip’ players, followed by a lot of unpredictable decisions.

First round

#1 Jacksonville — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
#2 New York Jets — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
#3 Carolina (v/MIA) — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
#4 Atlanta — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
#5 Cincinnati — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
#6 Philadelphia — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
#7 Detroit — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
#8 Miami (v/CAR) — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
#9 San Francisco (v/DEN) — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
#10 Arizona (v/DAL) — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
#11 New York Giants — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
#12 Denver (v/SF) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
#13 LA Chargers — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
#14 Minnesota — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
#15 New England — Daviyon Nixon (DT, Iowa)
#16 Dallas (v/ARI) — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
#17 Las Vegas — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
#18 Miami — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
#19 Washington — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
#20 Chicago — Elijah Moore (WR, Ole Miss)
#21 Indianapolis — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
#22 Tennessee — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
#23 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
#24 Pittsburgh — Javonte Williams (RB, North Carolina)
#25 Jacksonville (v/LAR) — Levi Onwuzurike (DT, Washington)
#26 Cleveland — Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)
#27 Baltimore — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
#28 New Orleans — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
#29 Green Bay — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#30 Buffalo — Alijah Vera-Tucker (G, USC)
#31 Kansas City — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
#32 Tampa Bay — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)

Second round

#33 Jacksonville — Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)
#34 New York Jets — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
#35 Atlanta — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
#36 Miami (v/HOU) — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
#37 Philadelphia — Elijah Molden (CB, Washington)
#38 Cincinnati — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
#39 Miami (v/CAR) — Talanoa Hufanga (S, USC)
#40 Denver — Kelvin Joseph (CB, Kentucky)
#41 Detroit — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
#42 New York Giants — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
#43 San Francisco — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
#44 Dallas — Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)
#45 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Joe Tryon (DE, Washington)
#46 New England — Brevin Jordan (TE, Miami)
#47 LA Chargers — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)
#48 Las Vegas — D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
#49 Arizona — Trey Smith (G, Tennessee)
#50 Miami — Landon Dickerson (C, Alabama)
#51 Washington — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)
#52 New York Jets (v/CHI) — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
#53 Tennessee — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
#54 Indianapolis — D’Ante Smith (T, ECU)
#55 Pittsburgh — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
#56 Seattle — Alex Leatherwood (T/G, Alabama)
#57 LA Rams — Joseph Ossai (LB, Texas)
#58 Baltimore — Teven Jenkins (T, Oklahoma State)
#59 Cleveland — Trevon Moerihg (S, TCU)
#60 New Orleans — Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
#61 Green Bay — Tommy Togiai (DT, Ohio State)
#62 Buffalo — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
#63 Tampa Bay — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)
#64 Kansas City — Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma)

#1 Jacksonville — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
Urban Meyer took this job because of big Trev.

#2 New York Jets — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
He has a lot of talent and teams will spend the coming weeks working out his mental makeup while trying to determine just how much upside he has.

#3 Carolina (v/MIA) — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
Fields has major talent but also some flaws. He needs to avoid dropping his eyes under pressure and locking on to primary targets. Yet the question for Carolina and others is this — if you can’t get Deshaun Watson out of Houston, how does Fields compare to the quarterbacks available next year? And that’s when he and others in this class will become quite appealing.

#4 Atlanta — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
I’ve mocked Lance in round two and while he definitely has the physical tools he doesn’t have many starts and he hasn’t played tough opponents. I think he’s in the Jordan Love range personally. However, Atlanta can afford to draft and develop for a year or two with Matt Ryan under center. They might feel like this is the ideal opportunity to stash a quarterback for the long term and thus be willing to select a raw talent who needs time.

#5 Cincinnati — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
He might be the best player in this draft after Trevor Lawrence. This would be an ideal pick for the Bengals who need to protect Joe Burrow when he returns from injury.

#6 Philadelphia — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
The best receiver in the draft and he would be a terrific fit for the target-starved Eagles offense.


#7 Detroit — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
There are some character question marks surrounding Parsons but you can easily make the case that he’s the best defensive player in the draft.

#8 Miami (v/CAR) — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
This works out nicely for the Dolphins as they reunite Tua with a target he already has plenty of chemistry with.

#9 San Francisco (v/DEN) — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
I’ve spent a lot of time watching Jones over the last couple of weeks. He might well have physical limitations — but I can see him fitting like a glove in the Shanahan system. What did he do well for Alabama? Kept the offense on schedule and got the ball out quickly. Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins thrived under Shanahan and I think there’s a chance they’ll think Jones can too.

#10 Arizona (v/DAL) — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
The Cardinals have a duty to provide Kyler Murray with as many weapons as possible and putting Pitts on the field with Nuk Hopkins is a terrifying thought.

#11 New York Giants — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
Supremely fast, dynamic and appears to have excellent character. Waddle has star qualities and could become Daniel Jones’ key to success.


#12 Denver (v/SF) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)

Highly explosive and dynamic — a true first round talent. He can jump a 39-inch vertical and a 10-3 broad jump.

#13 LA Chargers — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
I’m not as sold on Slater as some others. I think he’ll make a good guard. The Chargers need help across their O-line so could try him at multiple spots.

#14 Minnesota — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
This year, more than any other, you’ve just got to go and get talent. Moore is explosive, fast and unlike anything else in the NFL. He ran a 4.33 forty, a 4.01 short shuttle and jumped a 43 inch vertical at SPARQ.

#15 New England — Daviyon Nixon (DT, Iowa)
A TFL machine in 2020 (13.5). Nixon creates havoc from the interior and is a true playmaking defensive tackle.

#16 Dallas (v/ARI) — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
The Bowl game against Cincinnati was a statement performance. It was Ojulari saying ‘I belong at the top of your pass rushing boards’.

#17 Las Vegas — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
The Raiders need pass rushers. Teams will need to investigate the concussion issues that led to his departure from UCLA. However — Phillips was once a major recruiting superstar and has natural talent to get after the quarterback. Few players have his upside in this draft.

#18 Miami — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
Gliding and cultured runner who somehow combines power and finesse. Very talented and productive. Won’t fit every scheme as his cuts are sometimes laboured. Ran a 4.16 short shuttle at SPARQ.

#19 Washington — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
Perfectly sized, great agility and a very capable tackle prospect who will go earlier than people think. Had the best SPARQ score among O-liners in 2017 (107.25).

#20 Chicago — Elijah Moore (WR, Ole Miss)
Strong for his size and capable of going up to get the football — Moore is an ideal slot receiver and would provide a much-needed weapon for Carson Wentz if he ends up in Chicago.

#21 Indianapolis — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
The Colts love to draft for upside and physical traits. Paye’s tape is inconsistent and he has limited games to study but physically he was expected to test superbly.

#22 Tennessee — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
He only ran a 5.03 forty at SPARQ but when you put on the tape he jumps off the screen. He looks like a first rounder.

#23 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
Has the size and the length but he was really raw in Miami and sitting out 2020 hasn’t helped his stock.

#24 Pittsburgh — Javonte Williams (RB, North Carolina)
He had a record 0.48 broken tackles per rush attempt in 2020, registered 7.0 YPC and 4.59 yards-after-contact per carry. He’s exceptional.

#25 Jacksonville (v/LAR) — Levi Onwuzurike (DT, Washington)
The Jaguars badly need to address their D-line and while Onwuzurike isn’t going to be able to deliver a Calais Campbell-type impact, they miss that kind of player working the interior.


#26 Cleveland — Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)

Wow-athlete at linebacker with tremendous character and intensity. Ran a 4.18 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 37 inch vertical.


#27 Baltimore — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
Incredibly consistent, tough and very athletic center with a long career ahead of him. He ran a 4.49 short shuttle at 310lbs.

#28 New Orleans — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
I think the cornerbacks might last a bit then start coming off the board quickly. He looks like a Greek God of a cornerback. Incredibly put together. Dominated Auburn’s Seth Williams. If he played every game like that he’d be a top-10 lock.

#29 Green Bay — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
He has talent but you don’t see much effort in run-support, his tackling isn’t great and he’s not a physical player. He’s a player you want to like a lot but there’s enough to make you pause for thought.

#30 Buffalo — Alijah Vera-Tucker (G, USC)
He could be tried at tackle or guard. He doesn’t have great physical qualities but he was smooth, technically sound and he gets into the right position with ease.

#31 Kansas City — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
Mean, nasty, quick edge rusher who is only scratching the surface of his potential. Could go earlier.

#32 Tampa Bay — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)
Rising offensive lineman but whenever I’ve watched him there’s just something that makes me think right tackle, not left.

#33 Jacksonville — Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)
He’s a big favourite in the media but here’s something to consider — he ran a 4.69 at SPARQ at 177lbs. Was it just a bad run? He did jump a 41 inch vertical.

#34 New York Jets — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
The ‘Baby Gronk’ nickname is warranted. Superb body control and size.

#35 Atlanta — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
I think he had a ‘meh’ 2020 season but his profile is incredible. Jumped a 37 inch vertical at SPARQ and ran a 4.43.

#36 Miami (v/HOU) — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
Definitely a right tackle but could help finish off Miami’s O-line rebuild with a pick I have them making at #50.

#37 Philadelphia — Elijah Molden (CB, Washington)
Outstanding player who will only last this long based on his size and straight-line speed. Ran a 3.93 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 37 inch vertical.

#38 Cincinnati — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
He had a few lapses in 2020 and don’t forget he only ran a 4.57 at SPARQ.


#39 Miami (v/CAR) — Talanoa Hufanga (S, USC)
The Dolphins acquire this pick after trading down from #8. Hufanga is a player who deserves much more attention and he’s that aggressive, downfield, attacking safety the Belichick tree coaches love.


#40 Denver — Kelvin Joseph (CB, Kentucky)
Well sized and talented. Jumped a 36 inch vertical at SPARQ. Transferred from LSU.

#41 Detroit — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
Massive, highly athletic prospect who will shock people when he runs and does the agility testing. Ran a 4.27 short shuttle (!!!) at SPARQ.

#42 New York Giants — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
When he flashes he really flashes. There’s also some average games on tape. No combine doesn’t help him because he’s a good athlete.

#43 San Francisco — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
He might have to settle for a permanent role in the slot but Wade has talent and someone has to try and develop him. Five-star recruit.

#44 Dallas — Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)
Turned it on late in the season but had a slow start. No doubt he can flash as a pass rusher in college but can he do it consistently at the next level?

#45 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Joe Tryon (DE, Washington)
Sensational athlete and teams will look at his frame and the way he wins in multiple ways — speed, hand-use, power — and think this is a player we can work with.

#46 New England — Brevin Jordan (TE, Miami)
Ultra-dynamic pass-catching tight end who ran a sensational 4.21 short shuttle at 250lbs at SPARQ.


#47 LA Chargers — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)

He could go much, much earlier than this. Highly talented but a pure guard and that could impact his stock.

#48 Las Vegas — D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
The Raiders are still the Raiders and they love freakish speed.

#49 Arizona — Trey Smith (G, Tennessee)
Had a hit and miss Senior Bowl for me but someone is going to want to take a chance on his physical upside.

#50 Miami — Landon Dickerson (C, Alabama)
A first round talent who lasts because of a long history of injuries at Florida State and Alabama.

#51 Washington — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)

I’ve mocked him plenty of times in round one and I think it could happen. But 10 career starts create a question mark. He has the tools and the talent to succeed.

#52 New York Jets (v/CHI) — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
Old-school linebacker who’ll step up and smack you in the face — but limited athleticism could mean he lasts deep into day two.

#53 Tennessee — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
Bateman was prolific in 2019 but in the few games he played in 2020 he just looked off. He did the right thing pulling himself out.

#54 Indianapolis — D’Ante Smith (T, ECU)
He was superb at the Senior Bowl and whether he plays at tackle or guard he has the kind of potential teams crave on the O-line.

#55 Pittsburgh — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
He’s really talented he just lacks truly dynamic speed. The Steelers always do a good job drafting receivers in round two.

#56 Seattle — Alex Leatherwood (T/G, Alabama)
I think he has to kick inside to guard. He struggled in 1v1’s at tackle at the Senior Bowl. However, he has years of experience at left tackle for Alabama and it’s something you could try to develop for the future. A 6-5, 312lbs offensive lineman with an 85 3/8 inch wingspan with a physical nature will surely appeal.

#57 LA Rams — Joseph Ossai (LB, Texas)
He could replace Leonard Floyd as a rush hybrid who can deliver pressure but also drop if needed.

#58 Baltimore — Teven Jenkins (T, Oklahoma State)
A big, tough, aggressive offensive tackle who strictly is limited to the right side. He could replace Orlando Brown, who is angling for a trade.

#59 Cleveland — Trevon Moehrig-Woodard (S, TCU)
A very talented safety who would come in and make a big impact for a secondary that needs help.


#60 New Orleans — 
Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
A dynamic athlete and playmaker who has a shot to be really good at the next level. Ran a 4.27 short shuttle at SPARQ, adding a 36 inch vertical.

#61 Green Bay — Tommy Togiai (DT, Ohio State)
Physically powerful with the occasional flash of dynamism as a pass rusher — Togiai is a really good player.

#62 Buffalo — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
Out of sight and out of mind — Holland sat out the 2020 season and isn’t generating much buzz.

#63 Tampa Bay — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)
Why not plan for life after Tom? Mond has the arm, he throws well under pressure and he’s talented. In a few years time we may wonder how he lasted as long as he did.

#64 Kansas City — Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma)
He’s great on combo-blocks, he plays with attitude but he has short arms, he fights to get his hand-placement right and he might just last a bit longer than some think.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

I put this mock together under the premise that they don’t make the kind of bold, calculated moves I think are necessary. They don’t shift resource from linebacker and safety to the O-line and they don’t get back into the top-50 with more draft picks.

In this projection they simply restructure a few contracts, free up cap space and do what they’ve done for a few years now — fill holes with cheap players. Personally I think this will simply lead to more of the same and by next year, if not sooner, we’ll be talking about Russell Wilson’s future in even starker terms than we are now. Pete Carroll has a duty to make this right with Wilson and that means making tougher decisions than I am representing in this mock.

I think in this situation they’re duty bound to go O-line early. I have them taking Alex Leatherwood at #56 but if he was off the board there were many alternative options. It’s a strong class for interior O-liners. Whether the best way to protect Wilson and take on Aaron Donald is with youth and experience is a question that should be asked but here we are. I’d prefer talent and experience up front personally.

Tag-and-trade scenario

I mentioned this in yesterday’s podcast (see below) and I wanted to flesh out the detail here.

The franchise tag number for a cornerback in 2021 is $15.3m. The highest paid corner is Jalen Ramsey, earning $20m a year.

I think it’s quite possible teams like the Jaguars and Jets, with a lot of cap room and a need at the position, would be willing to consider signing Shaquill Griffin to a deal worth around $15m a year. That’s pretty much market value for a decent starting corner with age on his side (he turns 26 in July).

If you don’t want to take a cornerback early, Griffin is a nice alternative.

If the Seahawks hear that he has a strong market before the new league year begins, I think they should consider tagging him with the objective of trading him. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you get a third round pick in return.

There’s really no downside. If nobody bites, just rescind the tag. If you can only get a day three pick, so be it. The chances are the Seahawks will sign free agents to fill holes on their roster, meaning they’re very unlikely to get a comp pick for Griffin in 2022. So you might as well get something for him.

This is also a way to add to your paltry number of picks in this draft.

In this projection, it could enable the Seahawks to add someone like Quinn Meinerz in round three, a receiver (it’s a good class) or a defensive lineman (there are several still remaining).

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You don’t have to like Colin Cowherd to acknowledge that he is well sourced.

The man speaks to Russell Wilson and/or his entourage.

It’s obvious. He practically campaigned for ‘Let Russ Cook’ last summer and has always been willing and prepared to offer an opinion from the perspective of Seattle’s quarterback.

Wilson has appeared on his show several times.

So when Cowherd speaks, it’s worth listening — at least if you want to know what’s going on in Wilson’s mind.

Because while many fans and some media are doing a fantastic impression of ‘Comical Ali‘ or the ‘this is fine‘ meme — the truth is there’s an issue that can’t be ignored and should be discussed.

A lot of people will accuse Cowherd of making a story out of nothing.

I’ve seen the following stated a lot on social media and other websites:

‘Wilson simply said he wants the O-line to be better and we all knew that anyway, so why are the media making a big deal out of this? They just want to create clickbait stories’

I’ll say it again. If you think the media are desperate to invent a Seahawks/Wilson saga, you’re hopelessly in denial.

If they needed to create anything right now, they’d be talking about whether it’s appropriate for Tom Brady to get hammered on a boat and throw a Super Bowl trophy across to another boat. They’d be delving into the Dallas/Dak Prescott situation. Nothing creates more clicks and hits than Tom Brady and the Cowboys.

They’ve been served a Deshaun Watson drama this year with a side-order of Carson Wentz. Matt Stafford and Jared Goff have swapped teams. Urban Meyer is in the NFL and preparing to draft one of the highest rated players college football has ever produced (and he had his pro-day recently).

Then there’s the Chiefs. The unstoppable force was demolished by Tampa Bay, amid a hugely controversial incident involving Andy Reid’s son days before the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks and Russell Wilson are simply not interesting enough outside of Seattle to think — ‘let’s insert this into the agenda’.

Cowherd, Mike Florio, Jason La Canfora and Dan Patrick. All people with connections to Wilson or his agent Mark Rodgers. Then there’s Mike Garofolo, one of the most trusted and reliable reporters in the NFL, also saying there’s a problem.

This isn’t about what Wilson, who is always careful and deliberate with his words, says in public. This is about what is being said off-camera or off-mic. It’s the very deliberate insertion of Wilson’s dissatisfaction into the mainstream media.

And piece by piece, we’re learning exactly what the issues are.

Cowherd says:

“Russell Wilson, I can tell you this, isn’t happy with Pete Carroll”

When you make a statement as forthright as ‘this is what the problem is’ — that’s because it’s been relayed to you, in faith, by a source who knows the truth.

So whether this is from Wilson, Rodgers or Greg Olsen (who is also close to Cowherd) — this isn’t something pulled from behind the couch to generate a bit of buzz on social media.

“He likes his team mates, he likes Seattle — it’s a Pete Carroll thing. The offense is outdated. I’ve had three different Seattle players tell me they feel like they’re running a 1980’s offense.”

Again, this is a very direct statement. So whether you agree with what Cowherd is saying about the offense or not — it doesn’t matter. This is a feeling within Seattle’s locker room. The extent to which this view is shared is unclear but it’s something that is at least felt by three individuals and possibly more.

“Since the death of Paul Allen, Pete Carroll has unquestioned power. In my opinion, it’s a lopsided franchise where the coach has too much power over the playbook, too much power over his quarterback, has too much power over the franchise and too much power over John Schneider.”

This is a quote worth breaking down.

Firstly, we’ve talked for many months about the Seahawks being a franchise stuck in an ownership holding pattern.

This isn’t about criticising Jodi Allen. She’s inherited a team from her brother. It’s already been reported that within the next five years, the Seahawks will likely be bought by someone else.

It’s perfectly understandable why she would place her faith in Carroll and Schneider for the next few years. Going through a major structural change and needing to find a new Head Coach is not an easy process at the best of times.

Until a buyer is found and a purchase completed, the status quo will remain.

It’s nobody’s fault that this happened and Allen doesn’t bear any responsibility for placing her faith in two franchise stalwarts.

Russell Wilson has a different agenda though. He is 33 in November. He clearly has issues with the way the franchise is operating and would probably prefer to play for an offensive minded Head Coach, with a more focused personnel setup, let by a GM without an overseeing leader.

Cowherd says this is his opinion rather than anything expressed by a source. Yet it’s not a stretch to think this is a view shared by multiple individuals.

“The offensive line has been suboptimal since they traded away Max Unger and Russ doesn’t believe he’s given the respect he deserves.”

Some may contend this — but I’m not convinced Cowherd has his finger on the pulse to the extent that he randomly refers back to a trade made six years ago in order to illustrate a take on the offensive line.

That, to me, is probably a point relayed by Wilson. Which is understandable. I think the decision to replace Unger with Drew Nowak would stick in the craw of many franchise quarterbacks for a long, long time. That’s a difficult thing to forget.

Feeling like he isn’t getting enough respect points to the increasing lack of trust, which brings me on to Cowherd’s next comment:

“What is happening in Seattle is, the offense is outdated but the defense is no good and that’s Pete’s speciality. In the last five years, Seattle’s defense has gone from 5th to 11th to 16th to 26th to 22nd. And too often, Russell Wilson feels like a life preserver for a franchise that can’t stop anybody.”

This quote speaks to a couple of issues. Firstly, I suspect Wilson has been deeply impacted by what happened in the first half of the 2020 season. Seattle’s defense was on a historically bad pace. Wilson’s brilliance got them to 5-0. He dragged them to an unbeaten start.

Then at the first sign of trouble — the games in Buffalo and LA — Carroll put an end to ‘Let Russ Cook’.

Yes — Wilson didn’t play well from Buffalo onwards. But it’s easy to imagine him feeling let down by a lack of trust and support to put things right. After all, he was on a record-pace himself after five games. The drive to beat Minnesota felt like his MVP moment. He was the heavy favourite to be the MVP.

It’s hard to imagine the Packers deciding the way out of a difficult spell is to reign in the offense and place more faith in the defense rather than Aaron Rodgers. Tom Brady had some bad games in 2020 but the Buccs never wavered.

And let’s be right here — even with Wilson’s poor play in the second half of 2020 (which may have been affected by the lack of faith being placed in him), he is the main reason Seattle has had winning season after winning season in recent years.

Without the quarterback, what are the Seahawks?

A team picking in the top-10?

The defense has been consistently poor for years, as Cowherd’s rankings suggest. Certainly they’ve not had a defense since the LOB that you would consider anywhere near the top of the NFL.

Nobody should underestimate Carroll’s impact as a leader, coach and motivator. He deserves to stand by his record in Seattle and claim the credit attached to it.

Yet without a quarterback like Wilson, the stark reality is this would be a very different story.

What Cowherd is highlighting here is a quarterback who feels under appreciated and is wondering whether the coach is holding up his end of the bargain.

“I don’t think this is a great relationship. I don’t think Russell Wilson is going to get traded. I’ve been told he’s not going to get traded. But it’s fluid. It’s imperfect. It’s turbulent. It’s not great.”

I think this is an important quote. I’m not convinced Cowherd has a direct line to the Seahawks. He might do. He’s well connected. But I suspect this is possibly an admission from the Wilson camp — as disillusioned as they may be — that a trade isn’t viable this year unless they want to unleash a Deshaun Watson-style tsunami.

But this is where I think some people are missing the point. Rather than writing a glib, dismissive reaction to the suggestion Wilson won’t be traded, we should be looking at why such a statement even has to be made.

Joe Fann summed it up very well in a tweet yesterday:

How you should read this: “Russell Wilson isn’t getting traded right now.”

How you shouldn’t read this: “Things are A-OK between Wilson and the Seahawks.” https://t.co/7piS43Kp3M

— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) February 15, 2021

That Wilson won’t be traded (always a long-shot because how often are franchise quarterbacks with $39m dead-cap hits dealt?) isn’t the takeaway you should be battering people over the head with. Understanding that Wilson has serious issues with the franchise, identifying what they are and finding out whether the Seahawks are actively working to fix this mess should be the order of the day.

Because if you’re not trading him, then you’re obliged to make things right.

What’s the alternative? A civil war between coach and quarterback? Another season where we have to debate the merits of consistent playoff qualification versus being post-season also-rans?

Things have to change and that means making some difficult decisions.

They’ve currently only got $2.3m to spend according to Over the Cap. They have holes all over the roster — at left guard, center, cornerback, running back and SAM linebacker. They’re losing depth at tight end and on the D-line. In the trenches, where they have contracted players, significant improvement is still required.

People are talking about contract extensions and restructures as a run of the mill solution. No biggie. Just extend a deal here for a 32-year-old pass rusher, or give that 30-year-old receiver a honking great cap hit in 2022 or 2023 to make it painfully difficult to get out of the deal down the line.

This is how teams like Dallas and New Orleans get into so much cap trouble. The never-ending borrowing on the credit card.

The fact Seattle currently has a projected $118,526,756 available in 2022 is a mirage. They only have 19 contracted players currently. This doesn’t include whatever they end up paying Jamal Adams — assuming they keep him. It doesn’t include a presumed extension for D.K. Metcalf. And look at the list of contracted players. You might want to peek between your fingers, it’s fairly terrifying.

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Wilson is looking at this and wondering what the heck is going on. What’s the plan, exactly? What’s the process? The blueprint?

Cowherd touched on the Seahawks again in another segment today:

Here’s a few choice quotes:

“He (Carroll) now has incredible power in personnel. In fact that’s why the GM John Schneider almost left to take the Lions’ GM job and their draft picks have been all over the map. That Jamal Adams trade? There’s no safety in the NFL worth two first round picks. Pete made that happen. The Rashaad Penny first round pick was a mess.”

A few months ago I wrote about the need for Carroll to take a step back and become a figurehead for the franchise. Lead the team, inspire and motivate. Be the ultimate overseer but empower other people to run the offense and defense.

By the sounds of things, he’s not even letting Schneider make the calls on the positions to draft and the trades to make.

And yes — Carroll has praised Schneider for getting the Adams deal done. Yet how much of that was an instruction from Carroll to get him, with Schneider merely presenting the best offer he could get from the Jets?

“Doesn’t it feel kinda like Seattle is making up crap as they go?”

This is perhaps the most explosive quote of the lot because it’s a striking shot at Carroll.

Yet I have to say, it resonates.

The last off-season in particular was shambolic. From repeatedly calling Jadeveon Clowney the priority, to seemingly leaving the door open for him far too long and missing out on alternative options, to the decision to invest yet more resource in the linebacker position and then trade up, aggressively, for a player with major injury red flags. It felt chaotic and disorganised.

Then the last minute trade for Jamal Adams, at a massive cost. In my opinion it was a desperate attempt to add talent and impact to a defense that had merely swapped Clowney for a Benson Mayowa/Bruce Irvin combo. The most significant addition felt like Quinton Dunbar and at the time it wasn’t clear whether he was going to be playing cornerback or going to jail.

Adams was available and Seattle overpaid to ensure they didn’t enter the season without any obvious addition or upgrade.

They carried existing needs until the trade deadline and relied on late deals and signings.

‘Making crap up as they go along’ is exactly how it felt. And it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the highly ambitious franchise quarterback, who began the off-season calling for superstars, understood this just as much as a random blogger from Rotherham.

There almost feels like a complacency surrounding the team at the moment. There’s an air of being too defensive when a more honest analysis would be worthwhile. I think that is how Wilson feels too. If he can’t initiate change then I do think he will ask to be traded — whether that’s later this year or in 2022.

I’ll refer back to my off-season plan, published two weeks ago. The Seahawks need some serious roster surgery that is going to require making some very difficult decisions.

It’s time to shift resource from linebacker and safety and truly build around Wilson. That means a talent infusion on the offensive line, with a desire to have a top-10, if not top-five ranked line in 2021. It also means acquiring one more weapon if not two, plus adding a serious lead running back.

On defense, you’ve just got to find a way. My idea is to bring in young, hungry, fast players with a point to prove. That’s how you built a Championship team before and while you’ll never recreate the LOB — it’s simply not sustainable to be investing what you are at linebacker and safety.

Keeping calm and carrying on isn’t an option. Creating a bit of room to bring in the 2021 class of B.J. Finney’s and Cedric Ogbuehi’s shouldn’t be a consideration. At the moment there’s no viable way to create great depth or add talented veterans — so some tough decisions need to be embraced, not shirked.

On top of that — while Carroll may have previously hoped to end his career doing things his way, it’s time to place his faith in the new offensive coordinator and the most expensive player on the roster. Shane Waldron has hardly come from a system that doesn’t run the ball. I doubt Wilson wants to throw 60 times a game either unless it’s absolutely necessary.

Take a step back and relinquish some control. We all carry hopes and ideals but life rarely fits an exact blueprint. Is it more important to build the team exactly how you want? Is it so vital to force the quarterback to play the way you want to, daring him to request a trade and creating a negative dynamic? Or does there need to be an acceptance that the NFL has changed, quarterback-power has never been stronger thanks to Tom Brady’s exploits and opponents need to be kept guessing week-to-week?

That’s not to suggest Carroll has ignored Wilson or not taken his advice in the past. But it’s time to go further for the sake of the franchise. And if things go south during a tricky part of the season, that’s the time to double-down on your star player, not wrestle back control.

The relationship clearly isn’t in a good place and that needs to be addressed immediately.

If the Seahawks just try and manoeuvre their way through a difficult off-season without any serious philosophical or roster change, we won’t hear the end of this latest saga until Wilson is dealt.

More importantly, we won’t see the Seahawks become serious challengers again. Because frankly, they’re not close to the Super Bowl at the moment.

You don’t have to agree entirely with all of Wilson’s concerns or Cowherd’s comments. But Pete Carroll faces a period of serious self-reflection and it’s not overly dramatic to say the future of the franchise rests on his next move.

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ECU’s D’Ante Smith had an outstanding Senior Bowl and with his incredible measurements, he might be working his way into the second round.

Check out my interview with him below. If you’ve been able to share these interviews in the past, please do again. And don’t forget to like the video on YouTube and subscribe to the channel.

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This is the sixth part of a guest-post series written by Curtis Allen

#6 special teams

Players under contract for 2021: Jason Myers, Michael Dickson, Tyler Ott

Players under contract for 2022: Jason Myers, Tyler Ott

Restricted Free Agents: none

Unrestricted Free Agents: Nick Bellore

Exclusive Rights Free Agents: none

Futures Contract signings Candidates: none

Salary Cap Notes

2021 Cap Commitment: $8.92 million (5% of $178m cap)

Michael Dickson is an unrestricted free agent in 2022

2020 Season Overview

The Seahawks’ special teams unit was one of the NFL’s best in 2020.

It started out in a precarious position, with a brief announcement by Pete Carroll that Special Teams coach Brian Schneider was taking an extended leave of absence and that Larry Izzo was taking his duties over.

But the team responded with a consistently fantastic effort.

Jason Myers trolled Seahawks fans by being a perfect 24 for 24 on field goal tries but missing 4 PAT attempts. If you can figure out how that happened, more power to you.

Michael Dickson had a tremendous year. He was second overall in average punt yardage but kicked 50% more punts than the top overall punter. He also placed 32 punts inside the 20-yard line.

Pete Carroll frequently deployed Dickson as a weapon to give his defense as much help as possible and he didn’t disappoint. Dickson answered the bell every time the defense needed a short punt accurately placed to pin the offense deep in their own zone. When they also needed Dickson to deliver a blast in key times he did it.

The number of times he did something amazing during the season is truly impressive:

– A 63 yard punt vs San Francisco Week 17 that was fair caught by the returner

– A 51 yard punt vs Los Angeles in Week 16 from the back of his own end zone

– Pinning Minnesota inside their own five-yard line twice in Week 5

-A 65-yard punt vs San Francisco in Week 8 that pinned the Niners at their three-yard line and led them to take a knee and concede the drive to run the clock out at the half

How Dickson got neither a Pro Bowl nor an All-Pro selection defies explanation.

The coverage units also performed extremely well this season. They allowed no blocked punts or field goal tries, nor did they allow any return touchdowns.

Cody Barton and Nick Bellore proved to be special teams demons, frequently making coverage tackles and occasionally forcing a fumble.

The also blocked a punt in the Giants game that resulted in a safety.

The returners were very middling. DJ Reed brought a spark at times with some good kickoff returns.

Offseason Questions to Address

1. Will they extend Michael Dickson?

He is in the last year of his contract in 2021. He has returned to top form to be a force and a key part of the special teams unit. He gave the defense every chance a punter could to be effective in 2020.

A top punter makes about $3.5m per season and they should be able to settle on a three or four year extension for Dickson in that range.

2. Who handles the return duties in 2021?

The Seahawks seemed to not have placed a real priority on kick and punt returners in recent years. Perhaps that is a response to the league rules making kickoffs a lower-impact event in the modern NFL game.

It is always strange the way the Seahawks operate in this area.

They seemingly refuse to allow key offensive players like Tyler Lockett and Rashaad Penny – players who have effective histories in the return game – chances to practice their craft. This is presumably out of fear of injury.

DJ Reed will probably be 2021’s victim to this mode of thinking. He has emerged as a candidate to take over one of the starting cornerback spots. So despite his ability to occasionally send a charge into the team with a nice return, he might be kept out of the return game to keep him healthy and focused on his defensive responsibility.

The Seahawks do draft players who have return histories on their resume, like Travis Homer and Freddie Swain, but they have been unable to have a substantive effect at the pro level.

They’ve had David Moore return punts but it seems at times that his mandate is ‘for God’s sake don’t cough up the ball’ rather than being encouraged to advance the ball and give the offense some field position.

3. Will Nick Bellore be brought back?

Nick Bellore has been on one-year contracts the past two seasons for about $1m per season. He is every fan’s first cut when speculating on the final 53-man roster but always makes ends up on the roster, even if he is let go on cut down day.

He had a fantastic year on special teams in 2020. I suspect that if he keeps playing like this he will always have a job in Seattle as long as Pete Carroll is coach.

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We’re a week on from the first flush of a new Russell Wilson saga.

Despite the claims of one or two members of the media that this is a storm in a tea cup and the almost desperate denial of sections of the fan base, this is a very serious issue that warrants care and attention.

Because although you’ll have heard or read many people denouncing the possibility of a trade because of the $39m dead cap hit, the reality is that anything is possible if there’s sufficient motivation.

How else are the Eagles, currently $50m over the cap for 2021, going to be able to take on a dead cap hit for Carson Wentz?

Mike Tannenbaum has a solution for Wentz and there’s no reason why it wouldn’t work for Wilson and the Seahawks:

If Wilson pays back a $30m bonus before the end of the month, the dead cap hit would be dramatically reduced. And there’s nothing stopping the buying team (who are only inheriting his base salary) compensating that money back to Wilson once a trade is consumated.

So if Wilson is suitably motivated to force a trade, there is a clear and distinct opportunity to make it happen. It’s unique. It’s creative. But it exists.

Fans are also increasingly suggesting this is simply an overreaction to some fairly non-explosive words about needing to improve the offensive line. That the media are creating a story out of nothing.

This is simply a convenient and reassuring piece of denial.

The reality is that Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, is feeding information to the media to make it known that he’s unhappy. He’s not sneakily doing that behind Wilson’s back. He’s his agent. That’s why you’re seeing the Jason La Canfora articles. That’s why Mike Florio is actively reporting the story.

These are media contacts Rodgers has used in the past.

You’ve also got Brandon Marshall speaking in very candid terms about Wilson wanting out. You can write him off as a loudmouth talking head if you want but you’ll merely be doing yourself a disservice.

Marshall has been in the media for years — dating all the way back to his playing days in Chicago. Part of his schtick has never been to offer wild hot takes on the future of former team mates.

If what he was saying was off-base, you can imagine Wilson would be on the phone immediately telling his friend to offer a full retraction. That hasn’t happened.

Is Mike Garafolo a specialist in clickbait now? So when one of the most respected and reliable reporters in the NFL media says it “smells like a guy with one foot out of the door or kind of wants out” — do you write that off too?

And let’s not forget the reported (and not disputed) ultimatum from Wilson to the team before the season to ‘let him cook’ or the talk in May that league sources expect, sooner or later, that Wilson will be playing elsewhere.

The proverb ‘no smoke without fire’ has never been more apt.

If you’re ignoring and denying all of this, then you’re simply unwilling to face the seriousness of this situation. I’m afraid, you are in denial.

And if you think the media needs to create drama at a time when Deshaun Watson is seeking a trade, Tom Brady has just won a seventh Super Bowl, Andy Reid’s son has left a child in hospital, Carson Wentz is on the brink of being dealt and Dak Prescott’s future is up in the air — then you’re doing an incredible impression of ‘comical Ali’.

This story is in the media because Wilson and his camp want it to be.

It really is as simple as that.

The idea of Wilson leaving Seattle is tough for many to handle. It would also be a highly unusual and explosive situation for a player of his caliber to insist on a move. That, in part, is why fans and media gravitate towards dismissing this outright.

Yet if you’re willing to actually break this down and read the tea leaves — it’s not difficult to piece together what’s going on.

An inconvenient truth is, sadly, still a truth.

The idea that Wilson is simply applying a bit of pressure and will then ‘see how it goes’ this year also isn’t realistic.

He turns 33 in November. He’s a couple of years away from being tagged as an ageing quarterback. He constantly talks about legacy.

He’s in a hurry. Time is of the essence. Wasting another season seeing if things shift to his way of thinking isn’t an option. Mainly, because he knows it won’t happen. This is the Pete Carroll show. Not the Russell Wilson show. And he knows it.

I suspect he wants to go somewhere where it does become the Wilson show.

This is a quarterback who wants to compete for MVP awards. He wants to win multiple titles. He’s approaching 33 and hasn’t even received a MVP vote in his career. The Seahawks haven’t come close to a Super Bowl run in pushing seven years. Since then, Tom Brady has won four more titles.

He’s seen Brady leave the team where he was a legend and go somewhere else where everything is catered to the quarterback. It took one season to win a title.

One season.

There’s also a trust factor here. Wilson made the ultimatum before the season and, in fairness, was allowed to cook. He carried the team and made up for a disgrace of a defense for weeks, leading the Seahawks to a 5-0 start.

Yet at the first sign of trouble, Carroll wrestled control of the offense.

Some people in the media and large sections of the fan base haven’t even acknowledged how much of a factor that could be.

The ultimatum was never disputed. So how can anyone fail to see how much this could be influencing Wilson’s position today?

It’s the perfect illustration of a clash of philosophies and the trust issues that exist from both sides.

Put yourself in Wilson’s shoes. You carry the team on your back and set up a 5-0 start. ‘Carrying the team on your back’ barely feels like an adequate description. The defense was on a historically bad pace. It was Wilson vs the world — he was having to score at a historic pace himself in order to deliver wins.

Then at the first sign of trouble, that was the end of that. No more cooking.

You have to be prepared to consider how Wilson felt about that. Do they not trust him to right the ship? Did the first five games mean nothing? Why aren’t they giving me a chance to get back on track?

And in the end, were the Seahawks better for the change? They were humbled by the Giants. They beat a bunch of bad or banged up opponents and then were swiftly dumped out of the playoffs in the wildcard round.

Do you not think Wilson is bugged by that? You took control and where exactly did it get us?

Then there’s the very clear and distinct philosophical differences — emphasised by how Carroll and Wilson spoke about the team immediately after the season (detailed here).

If you think this is purely a desire for better offensive linemen, you’re not just barking up the wrong tree. The tree’s a lamp post.

Philosophy. Trust. Control.

You would think journalists would be hammering the phones at this point, trying to figure out what’s going on. Instead, several are simply resorting to condescending ‘he won’t be traded’ statements they have no business making.

Because while it might be totally inconvenient for the Seahawks to trade Wilson — that’s completely missing the point. This is all about the quarterback and how he feels. If he wants out, it doesn’t matter how inconvenient it is for the Seahawks.

The moment a franchise quarterback decides he wants to play elsewhere, you only have two choices.

You either cave to his demands — which in this instance means giving him control of the offensive philosophy and making aggressive moves in free agency to appease him, which means freeing resource that you’ve already invested in other areas.

Or it means trading him.

The idea of simply doing nothing and hoping it’ll blow over doesn’t exist.

This isn’t like a Kam Chancellor or Marshawn Lynch holdout. Yes, they can act as distractions. But the two people who have to be bought in, leading the way and sharing a vision are the Head Coach and franchise quarterback.

Having a dissatisfied quarterback, actively opposing the philosophy of the coach, is a recipe for disaster. It will infect and infiltrate the rest of the roster. How can you possibly succeed in that environment?

Even if they turn down all offers and Wilson is forced to accept his fate and go to training camp, rather than hold out. That isn’t conducive to success. And the drama, the saga, will never end.

Every bad result will be filled with talking points about Wilson’s future. Every time he succeeds, it’ll lead to talk of him deserving more power and respect.

That’s why you have to either make things right or the divorce papers need filing.

So all the people online currently insisting Wilson won’t be traded are in no position to do so. They’re only looking at it from the perspective of the team. They’re not considering the perspective of the quarterback — who having made his dissatisfaction clear, will now be expecting a response.

Carroll ceding control to Wilson in terms of offensive vision seems completely unrealistic, given what we witnessed in the second half of the season and with the way Carroll spoke after the Rams loss.

Yet without that, there’s every chance Wilson will ask for a trade. Mike Florio, citing his source (Mark Rodgers), says the situation is ‘fluid’ with regards requesting a trade. That means it hasn’t happened yet — but it could.

And if you think the Shane Waldron appointment solved any problems, I refer you to this tweet:

Something to keep in mind re: Russell Wilson. Two sources I've spoken with indicated he was lukewarm on Shane Waldron, but felt he was the best candidate for the coordinator role. He wasn't ecstatic about other alternatives.

— Corbin Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) February 10, 2021

So my thought today, as we approach a week where the rumour mill will continue, is why haven’t the Seahawks talked publicly yet?

It could be that they simply don’t want to rise to it. They may feel that speaking in any way will be unhelpful, even if it’s just to outright rule out a trade. That could simply shake the cage.

Here’s the thing though. At the moment, Wilson is winning the PR battle. He is creating a situation where he’s making it clear he’s unhappy and that he wants the team to lean towards his way of thinking.

The silence in response neither pushes back nor sets things straight. There’s just a complete mystery, short of Dan Patrick’s report that the team is unhappy with Wilson and his team for going to the media to voice their concerns.

If the Seahawks want to play the game, they should come out — as Nick Caserio the Houston GM did — and say the quarterback isn’t available for trade in any circumstance and that all offers will be rejected.

If they do that, Wilson is faced with the prospect of either getting on with the job or requesting a trade (as Deshaun Watson did). Yet I sense Wilson is very cautious of making that move and being seen to be agitating for a departure.

As much as he might wish to go somewhere where he can have Tom Brady-esque authority, with an autonomy on the offense, playing for an offensive minded Head Coach — I also don’t think he wants to walk out the door a hated figure.

As Brandon Marshall put it, he wants to find the classiest way to move on.

Unfortunately there’s no easy way to initiate a divorce. So if the Seahawks return the ball to his side of the court by saying no trade is happening, he either needs to get on with life or request a trade.

Something has to happen quickly. The Seahawks have a lot to get done this off-season. They need to make a decision on Jamal Adams’ contract and then either sign him or trade him — a negotiation which may be tricky. They need to find ways to create cap space and potentially get back in the draft. They have a host of starters to re-sign or replace.

They have a much harder job evaluating the draft prospects this year with no combine, no official-30 visits and limited pro-day access.

Having to deal with an unhappy quarterback on top of this is a potential back breaker. I would suggest, sooner rather than later, they need to know where they stand.

That means Pete Carroll sitting down with Russell Wilson and having it out. By the end of that meeting, or shortly after, they need to have a decision on whether he’s staying or going.

If he’s staying, there can be no more public complaint, no more Mark Rodgers leaking info to the media.

If he’s going, they need to get on with finding the best offer and thus the best replacement quarterback. They need to be creative to lower the dead cap hit. And they need to have the time to plot the future of the Seahakws.

This dragging on for much longer is unthinkable and won’t be conducive to success. There’s a cloud hanging over the franchise.

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Talking quarterbacks

A few people have asked for thoughts on the quarterback class, given the rumours regarding Russell Wilson’s future.

If a trade actually does occur, I will watch every game of every top-end eligible quarterback to provide a thorough, much more detailed article. For now though, I’ll share a few thoughts on each player expected to go somewhat early.

It’s a difficult class to judge because Trevor Lawrence and Kellen Mond aside, they all have limited starting experience.

I’m not bothering with Trevor Lawrence. He’s going to be the #1 pick and all the riches in the world won’t tempt Jacksonville to trade that pick.

Zach Wilson (BYU)
He produces flashes of real magic. He does a lot of the things Mahomes and Murray do that ‘wow’ you — no look passes, throwing from different angles, superb throws on the run, low percentage downfield shots with accuracy. He elevated BYU to a new level in 2020. He’s mobile, accurate and has an X-factor personality (although he wasn’t named one of BYU’s eight captains for 2020, which is worth investigating). There are also moments where he misreads opportunities and makes odd decisions. I think this is indicative of a lack of actual playing time and experience. That suggests he might have some initial growing pains in the NFL and you can never tell whether players will elevate (like Josh Allen) or implode during that initial torrid experience. He doesn’t have the outstanding physical tools like Allen, where the talent eventually matches up with the experience. He’s very skilled, though.

Justin Fields (Ohio State)
A bit like Wilson, there are times where he turns it on and you can’t take your eyes off the screen. We saw that against Clemson in the playoffs. He’s very capable of throwing downfield with accuracy. He was once a highly-recruited, major buzz talent and you see why. Fields is perfectly mobile — more than merely elusive but far from Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson as a runner. Yet there are also multiple-turnover games and evidence of strange decision-making. There are examples of him holding the ball too long or hesitating to let it rip. There’s some carelessness in the pocket and indecision. I suspect Wilson and Fields are both capable of succeeding, especially with their creativity and improv, but whether they are capable of being top-eight QB’s is a question mark. Is Fields special enough to live with the idea that he’s going to go off-script a lot? Because I’m not sure you can necessarily slot him into a system. It’s also worth noting that he transferred from Georgia because they wanted to stick with the fairly average Jake Fromm. Clemson didn’t hold back Trevor Lawrence and quickly ousted Kelly Bryant.

Davis Mills (Stanford)
In terms of frame and natural ability, Mills just looks like a pro. He throws a very clean, tight spiral. He’s mobile enough to evade pressure and there are instances of him breaking a tackle, keeping his eyes downfield and throwing into the end zone for a touchdown. He’s very capable of staying on schedule, delivering the offense as intended but when he needs to take shots he has the physical ability to do it. He ran a 4.32 short shuttle at SPARQ and is a former five-star recruit. He’s far from a scrambling dynamo but neither is he a total statue who can’t extend plays. However, he only started 10 games in college and that’s a problem. Teams will love his frame, his technical ability and his poise. The question I have though, aside from his lack of playing experience, is what makes him tick? He looks ice-cool during interviews and his body language is incredibly calm. I can’t tell if he’s just a man in control or whether he reminds me of Josh Rosen — all the talent but does he have the edge to succeed?

Mac Jones (Alabama)
Simply watching him on ESPN, it’s very easy to assume Jones made a big impression at the Senior Bowl. He looked in complete control and owned the field. He was being coached hard by the Panthers and was listening intently and cracking jokes with the coaches. Simply put, he looked like he belonged. His personality reminds me of Philip Rivers — a man who is at his happiest on a football field with a bunch of guys. Someone who isn’t intimidated by the pressure and spotlight that comes with being a quarterback. He has nearly 10-inch hands which helps. That said, he does have physical limitations. He throws a lot of contested passes that came off at Alabama because he threw to studs and was well protected. At the next level, some of those could be turnovers. He lacks the arm strength to drive the ball downfield 50 yards. Yet anything on a short-to-medium range he is accurate, delivers a crisp throw and he can move the ball. Physically, he reminds me a bit of Matt Hasselbeck. In a timing offense that is well structured, he can be a fine starter. If you want improvisation and off-script magic — he’s not the guy. He’s also only a one-year starter.

Trey Lance (North Dakota State)
He’s big and athletic. He makes a lot of plays where he takes off running and he’s difficult to stop. He’s not a sudden, lightning-quick runner but he has long strides that chew up yards. He can even run over defenders to get an extra yard or two. As a passer, he has no problems throwing downfield. There are examples on tape where he throws with great accuracy and placement. However, the NDSU offense was so carefully manufactured and he had a lot of throws in 2019 where the tight end (for example) was schemed so open it was ridiculous. He also has limited starts and in his one game in 2020 he turned the ball over and looked incredibly rusty. Lance is extremely difficult to work out. I’m not convinced he has the same upside as Jordan Love, a late first round pick, yet there are some similar physical tools to work with. As with most of these players though — there aren’t enough games to feel totally comfortable with your projection. And that’s a problem.

Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)
After a very inconsistent period as a starter, Mond settled into his role and took a big step forward in 2020. It kind of flew under the radar that A&M’s only loss was against powerhouse Alabama. Mond played very well and has a lot of attractive qualities. His deep ball has velocity and accuracy. His arm strength is the best among the names listed here and it showed during red zone drills at the Senior Bowl. He was much more able to fit passes into tight windows with a bit of extra mustard. When he turned it on in 11v11 drills and the game itself (after an admittedly sluggish start) he looked fantastic. He reminds me of a less mobile Colin Kaepernick — with a similar frame and spear like velocity on his throws. He’s used to dealing with pressure at A&M and throwing with a defender in his face — which he started to master by 2020. There’s a lot to work with here and for me, he’s a candidate to be a Dak Prescott-style ‘how did he last that long?’ type prospect.

Kyle Trask (Florida)
He has physical limitations. There are several instances where he misreads open receivers and then looks frustrated on the field because he knows what happened a split-second too late. He had a poor end of the season, turning the ball over way too much. He was able to move the ball effectively and chuck it around the field for most of his time as a starter. However, as soon as the game plan went awry he struggled to improvise or make any kind of inspired adjustment on the fly. He isn’t mobile or creative. Some of his turnovers were down to his inability to shift off script when reads are taken away. To me he’s a backup level player who will need to operate in a structured, managed offense that does a lot of the heavy-lifting for him.

Possible targets at other positions

Over the years we’ve been able to piece together what the Seahawks have looked for at each position. There are clear trends, as outlined in my combine preview a year ago. I’d recommend reading that for the ins and outs.

With no combine this year we’re going to have an incomplete process. Even if most teams host a pro-day — there’s no guarantee we’ll get all of the testing numbers and information.

The list below includes the players that we know, generally, fit what the Seahawks look for — in terms of physical profile and/or playing style.

Offensive linemen

The Seahawks are very strict when it comes to arm length (+33 inches). The only recent exception was Joey Hunt, a sixth round flier. Simply put, it would go against a decade-long trend for them to take an O-liner early with sub-33 inch arms. That doesn’t mean it definitely wouldn’t happen — it’s just less likely. That’s what history tells us. Sadly, in the case of this draft class, it could rule out the likes of Creed Humphrey, Landon Dickerson and David Moore.

They’ve also continued to focus on explosive traits. Damian Lewis scored a 2.97 in TEF and a strong 97.1 in weighted TEF. In 2019, Phil Haynes was the second most explosive offensive lineman in the draft.

We can’t determine explosive traits without testing numbers (vertical, broad, bench) and we’ll struggle to get that data this year. However, we can still look at the arm-length threshold and try to identify possible athletes who fit the bill.

Quinn Meinerz (G/C, UWW)
At the Senior Bowl he measured at 6-3 1/4 in height, 320lbs in weight and he has 33 inch arms (82 inch wingspan). Meinerz is perfectly crafted to play center at the next level and is right in Seattle’s wheelhouse for left guard or center. They also put a lot of stock in the Senior Bowl, so the fact Meinerz excelled in Mobile is another check mark. Is he explosive? He can dunk a basketball at 320lbs — suggesting he’ll test well in the vertical and broad jumps.

Ben Cleveland (G, Georgia)
He has outstanding size, measuring at 6-6 3/8 and 354lbs with 33 inch arms. The crazy thing is he doesn’t carry bad weight. He’s a monster. He’s also a freakish athlete. He ran a 5.11 at SPARQ and the expectation was he’d run something similar this year. He was being tipped to break the combine record of 49 reps on the bench press — the Georgia staff had to stop him at 45 on campus to avoid injury. He can do a single-arm dumbbell press at 160lbs.

Aaron Banks (G, Notre Dame)
There’s been a lot of talk about the Seahawks changing up their approach to the O-line and moving to more of a LA Rams approach, following the hiring of Shane Waldren. This is unlikely. Firstly, they’re already committed to Duane Brown, Damian Lewis and Brandon Shell as starters. Secondly, Mike Solari remains the O-line coach. Since Solari’s arrival, they’ve favoured massive size at left guard. Banks is 6-5 3/8, 338lbs and has 33 1/8 inch arms (82 inch wingspan).

Trey Smith (G, Tennessee)
Smith has the size — 6-5 1/2, 331lbs, 33 3/4 inch arms, 83 1/8 inch wingspan. However, he’s a very different player to Aaron Banks. He looks like an athlete. If you were going to sculpt a first round interior lineman, they would look like this. He was the top college recruit in 2017 at any position, so he has a pedigree. However, his play on the field was wildly inconsistent and he’s had serious health problems (blood clots). Someone will take a chance on his upside though and with the right coaching and guidance — the potential is clear.

Alex Leatherwood (T/G, Alabama)
He’s 6-5 1/8, 318lbs with 34 3/8 inch arms and a huge 85 3/8 inch wingspan. He insisted on playing tackle at the Senior Bowl and had a difficult showing against any speed rush in the 1v1’s. Yet in the 11v11 drills, he excelled. Leatherwood probably doesn’t have the feet and twitch to play left tackle in the NFL but he’s a plug-and-play guard if nothing else with at least the potential to transition. We know the Seahawks like physical, tough linemen from Alabama.

D’Ante Smith (T, ECU)
A small-school diamond at the Senior Bowl — Smith showed off terrific athleticism to handle tackle and guard duties in the 1v1’s. He played with aggression and an attitude. He used his length well and flashed balance, footwork and power. He’s 6-5 with 35 1/4 inch arms plus an 85 1/8 inch wingspan. He only weighed 294lbs however and needs to time to grow and develop his frame. Even so — he looked like a potential project to play tackle in the future. After a great Senior Bowl, he probably moved himself into day two of the draft — if not round two.

Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
I don’t have measurements but he’s listed at around 6-5 or 6-6 in height so there’s at least a fair chance he has the arm length Seattle craves. At SPARQ he ran an incredible 4.49 short shuttle at 310lbs plus a 5.11 forty. He also jumped a 30 inch vertical. His physical profile is highly athletic and explosive — plus he’s Mr. Consistency on tape. I think he’ll go in the top-40 but if he’s available for the Seahawks he’s an option.

Tight ends

Seattle has drafted five tight ends under Pete Carroll (if you don’t count Stephen Sullivan who was kind of picked as a player with no real set position):

Nick Vannett
Luke Willson
Anthony McCoy
Will Dissly
Colby Parkinson

They also traded for Jimmy Graham and signed Zach Miller and Greg Olsen.

All eight players are linked with a certain characteristic — strong agility testing:

Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)

Now let’s look at some of the top performing tight ends in the NFL in recent history in relation to the three cone:

Rob Gronkowski — 7.18
Hunter Henry — 7.16
T.J. Hockenson — 7.02
Zach Ertz — 7.08
Travis Kelce — 7.09

There’s a league-wide trend that says agility testing is vital for tight ends.

Tre’ McKitty (TE, Georgia)
One of the top performers at the Senior Bowl — McKitty flashed incredible hands making a couple of one-handed snares. He has 11-inch mitts which help. However, it’s his agility testing that really appeals. He ran a 4.13 short shuttle at SPARQ despite weighing 240lbs.

Tommy Tremble (TE, Notre Dame)
Seen by many as a candidate to be a Kyle Juszczyk-style full back — Tremble is a determined and at times fearsome blocker. He could also catch Seattle’s eye as a tight end candidate. He ran a 4.20 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 36 inch vertical.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
His ‘Baby Gronk’ nickname is well deserved. In the right offense, Freiermuth has a chance to be a special tight end. His body control is superb and he’s a terrific weapon with the potential to develop into a complete-TE. At SPARQ he ran a 4.44 short shuttle at 248lbs.

Brevin Jordan (TE, Miami)
A dynamic pass-catching weapon who only really scratched the surface of his potential in Miami. He has special physical qualities including running a 4.21 short shuttle at SPARQ at 250lbs.

Running backs

The Seahawks have consistently drafted players with a similar physical profile at running back. It’s made it fairly straight forward to figure out who they might like.

This is basically the profile:

5-11, 220lbs, +32 inch vertical, +10 broad

Over the years we’ve been able to identify targets and narrow the list of likely options. When they’ve drafted running backs, we’ve been able to work out who they’re likely to be…

2016:

C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-1 broad
Kenneth Dixon — 5-10, 215lbs, 37.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad

2017:

Christopher Carson — 6-0, 218lbs, 37 inch vert, 10-10 broad
Brian Hill — 6-0, 219lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Alvin Kamara — 5-10, 214lbs, 39.5 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Joe Williams — 5-11, 210lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-5 broad

2018:

Saquon Barkley — 6-0, 233lbs, 41 inch vert DNP broad
Kerryon Johnson — 511, 213lbs 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Bo Scarborough — 6-0, 228lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-9 broad
Nick Chubb — 5-11, 227lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
John Kelly — 5-10, 216lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Lavon Coleman — 5-10, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Rashaad Penny — 5-11, 220lbs, 32.5 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Royce Freeman — 5-11, 229lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-10 broad

2020:

Jonathan Taylor — 5-10, 226lbs, 36 inch vert, 10-3 broad
Cam Akers — 5-10, 217lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-2 broad
Deejay Dallas — 5-10, 217lbs, 33.5 inch vert, 9-11 broad
AJ Dillon — 6-0, 247lbs, 41 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Zack Moss — 5-9, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, DNP broad
James Robinson — 5-9, 219lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Patrick Taylor — 6-0, 217lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-3 broad

This year it’s going to be a lot harder to do this, unless we get full measurements and testing numbers.

However, without wanting to repeat myself too much, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams is exactly what they like at running back.

His physical running style and ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact is a Pete Carroll dream. He’s listed at 5-10 and 220lbs.

It’s been quite challenging to find alternative options. The combine would’ve helped shed some light. So in the meantime, I’ll just repost this highlights video for Williams. If you haven’t seen it before, you’ll see what I mean about his running style:

If you’re looking for late-round fliers with potential, Michigan’s Chris Evans (5-11, 219lbs) was once incredibly highly rated by scouts but a highly disappointing college career has tempered expectations.

Rhamondre Stevenson (6-0, 227lbs) has quick feet for his size but lacks explosive power. Khalil Herbert is incredibly dynamic but undersized (5-9, 204lbs) for Seattle and looks a far better fit for the 49ers. Trey Sermon (6-0, 213lbs) ended the 2020 season strongly but has never quite been able to put together a consistent run at Oklahoma or Ohio State.

Wide receiver

Pete Carroll has only drafted three receivers who haven’t run a 4.4 forty or faster (Kenny Lawler 4.64, Chris Harper 4.50, John Ursua 4.56). Two were seventh round picks.

Paul Richardson (4.40), Golden Tate (4.42), Tyler Lockett (4.40), Kris Durham (4.46), Kevin Norwood (4.48), Amara Darboh (4.45), David Moore (4.42), D.K. Metcalf (4.33) and Freddie Swain (4.46) all cracked the 4.4’s.

We have enough data to say this quite definitively — unless a player runs a 4.4 or faster, the Seahawks are unlikely to consider them until the later rounds. Clearly they value speed and suddenness at the position even if you’re a ‘bigger’ receiver.

Again, without a combine it’s going to be extremely difficult to determine which players are likely to be on their radar. All we can do at the moment is project based on the limited information we have.

For the purpose of this article I’m not going to include the likes of Rondale Moore or Jaylen Waddle. Both will be drafted early and both would almost certainly run in the 4.4’s or faster. For many players, such as Elijah Moore, I would expect a fast forty but there’s no recorded information available online.

Tutu Atwell (WR, Louisville)
Atwell is only 5-9 and 190lbs but he can reportedly bench press nearly 400lbs and squat three times his body weight. On top of that, he’s run a 4.26 forty and a 3.9 short shuttle. He’s extremely dynamic on sweeps and deep shots.

D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
A star on the first two days of the Senior Bowl, Eskridge has propelled himself into the top-50 following a superb 2020 season. Reportedly he runs a 4.33, jumps a 37.5 inch vertical, benches 350lbs and can squat 505lbs.

Marquez Stevenson (WR, Houston)
He was praised for his performance at the Senior Bowl, displaying lightning speed and patience in his routes. He’s said to be capable of running in the 4.30 range and he was measured as reaching a top speed of 23mph in 2019.

Amari Rodgers (WR, Clemson)
He had an impact during the Senior Bowl game, connecting nicely with Kellen Mond in the end zone twice. At SPARQ he ran a 4.49 forty at 209lbs, adding a 4.27 short shuttle and a 38 inch vertical jump.

Defensive linemen

For defensive ends or LEO’s they’ve sought twitchy athletes with great burst.

Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril ran 1.55 and 1.50 10-yard splits respectively. Anything in the 1.5’s is considered ‘elite’.

In terms of defensive tackles or inside/out rushers, Rasheem Green, Quinton Jefferson, Jordan Hill, Jaye Howard and Malik McDowell all tested superbly in the short shuttle (4.39, 4.37, 4.51, 4.47 and 4.53 respectively).

Bruce Irvin (4.03) and Frank Clark (4.05) both ran incredible short shuttles. Cassius Marsh’s 4.25 and Obum Gwacham’s 4.28 were also really good.

Arm length is also important and they’ve consistently sought defensive linemen with +33 inch arms.

Again — information is so limited at the moment. We’re unlikely to get any 10-yard split times. We might get the occasional short shuttle time reported from a pro-day. It’ll be harder than ever for us outsiders to judge who might be on Seattle’s radar.

I’ve selected three names below simply because of their previous testing numbers and measurements.

Adetokunbo Ogundeji (DE, Notre Dame)
His length was incredible — he measured at 6-4 3/8, 256lbs, 35 1/4 inch arms and an 85 3/8 inch wingspan. Those are the kind of numbers you notice for a potential LEO rush end. He had seven sacks and seven TFL’s for Notre Dame in 2020. We don’t have any vital 10-yard split numbers but he did run a 4.21 short shuttle at SPARQ. He received somewhat positive reviews for his Senior Bowl performance but I will need to watch the full 1v1 tape when it’s available.

Janarius Robinson (DE, Florida State)
He made headlines during Senior Bowl measurements with an insane 87 inch wingspan. He’s 6-5, 266lbs and also has 35 3/4 inch arms. Again — this is a dream for a LEO rusher. However, he looked incredibly raw in 1v1’s and he needs to learn how to make the most of his physical tools. Again, we don’t have a split time but he did run a 4.27 short shuttle at SPARQ.

Marvin Wilson (DT, Florida State)
Amid legit concerns about his conditioning, Wilson’s stock has fallen off a cliff and the chances are he’ll be a day three pick. He didn’t excel in 1v1’s in Mobile. However, his physical profile is remarkable. He’s 6-3 1/2, 319lbs with 33 inch arms and an 82 inch wingspan. He’s a former 5-star, #4 overall recruit who ran a 5.17 at 332lbs at SPARQ, then ran a fantastic 4.56 short shuttle. The talent is there — Wilson simply hasn’t put it together.

Linebackers

The Seahawks have tended to look for two types of player at linebacker — freakish athletes and players with great short-area quickness and agility.

Kevin Pierre-Louis, Korey Toomer, Malcolm Smith and Eric Pinkins all ran between a 4.44 and a 4.51 in the forty. Shaquem Griffin topped the lot with a 4.38. Pierre-Louis, Smith and Pinkins all jumped +39 inches in the vertical. Bobby Wagner was a 4.4 runner at his pro-day with a 39.5-inch vertical. Of the five players they’ve drafted with a +140 SPARQ score, Wagner, Pierre-Louis and Bruce Irvin are included.

Jordyn Brooks only ran the forty at the combine (4.54) but the team felt he was capable of a superb, all-round workout.

They’ve also targeted players who performed especially strongly in the short shuttle. Here are the top-15 short shuttle times run by a linebacker since 2010:

Jordan Tripp — 3.96
Nick Bellore — 4.00
Ben Heeney — 4.00
Mike Mohamed — 4.00
Nick Vigil — 4.00
Kevin Pierre-Louis — 4.02
Stephone Anthony — 4.03
Cody Barton — 4.03
Dakota Allen — 4.03
Von Miller — 4.06
Josh Hull — 4.07
Dorian O’Daniel — 4.07
Avery Williamson — 4.07
Shaq Thompson — 4.08
Ben Burr-Kirven — 4.09

Without short shuttle or combine testing, we’ll again be left with very little steer on this positional group. Two players stand out though as top-end athletes.

Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)
A player who doesn’t get much love in the mock drafts but will probably go earlier than most expect. Browning ran a 4.18 short shuttle at SPARQ, jumped a 37 inch vertical and recorded an overall score of 131.91.

K.J. Britt (LB, Auburn)
He played superbly in the Senior Bowl game, showing skill and intensity throughout. He’s reportedly run a 4.22 short shuttle, jumps a 35 inch vertical and is hailed at Auburn for his worth ethic and leadership.

Defensive backs

By now everyone knows the Seahawks like cornerbacks with 32 inch arms. Those players are generally physical and tall and take pride in defending the run.

We’ll see if anything changes considering D.J. Reed has emerged as a starter. Pete Carroll hinted he was starting to reconsider his stance on arm length. However, actually doing it — especially with two players — would be a big departure.

It used to be that the Seahawks took a corner on day three of most drafts to replenish the stock. In the last three drafts, they’ve only taken one — Tre Flowers, who was converted from safety.

I haven’t studied the following players closely enough to pass comment on their ability. I usually wait until combine measurements to get into the corners. However, the following fit Seattle’s size requirements:

Bryan Mills (CB, NC Central)
6-1, 180lbs, 32 inch arms — flashed some good moments during the Senior Bowl

Robert Rochell (CB, Central Arkansas)
6-0, 195lbs, 32 3/8 inch arms — has been tested and ran a 4.38 then jumped an 11-8 broad and a 41 inch vertical

Mark Webb (CB, Georgia)
6-1 1/2, 210lbs, 32 1/8 inch arms — good reviews from his week in Mobile

Ifeatu Melifonwu (CB, Syracuse)
6-2 5/8, 212lbs, 32 1/8 inch arms — the brother of former combine standout Obi Melifonwu

Benjamin St. Juste (CB, Minnesota)
6-3 3/8, 200lbs, 32 inch arms — nearly retired from football but was one of the players who really boosted his stock at the Senior Bowl

D.J. Daniel (CB, Georgia)
6-0, 183lbs, 33 inch arms — also received positive reviews from Mobile

At safety there’s a real mix of physical profiles in the players the Seahawks have taken, making it a difficult position to project.

I thought I’d single out two players.

Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
Just a terrific playmaker. In 22 games he had 125 tackles, 12 interceptions, 16 PBU’s, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. He has run a laser-timed 4.33 forty and jumps a 36 inch vertical. At SPARQ he ran a 4.25 short shuttle.

Divine Deablo (S, Virginia Tech)
I wanted to highlight Deablo mainly for his size. He’s 6-3 3/8, 226lbs and has 33 inch arms. He’s well put together and really fluid.

There are other names I would like to add to this list, many of which we discussed at length during the college football season. Some I’ve even interviewed. Until we get measurements and testing numbers, however, it’s difficult to commit.

I hope the league provides such data for fans if possible. There’s a thirst for the combine, otherwise they wouldn’t have moved it to Prime Time. And while much of the interest is based around watching a bunch of players run a forty — I suspect there’s enough people with significant interest in the draft process to play the game a little bit here.

Would it be too much to ask for the league to include pro-day results on the same page as Lance Zierlein’s scouting reports?

Let’s hope, one way or another, that information is forthcoming.

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