Category: Scouting Report (Page 26 of 38)

Time for this week’s mock and only one trade in this projection. I think it’s fairly obvious New York and Tampa Bay will come to some kind of deal for Darrelle Revis. Despite the posturing going on at the moment, the Jets would be silly to let the only suitor drift away when they appear willing to part with a high first round pick. In twelve months the Jets will get nothing. Zilch. Nada. They cannot franchise Revis per the terms of his contract.

If they want extra’s like Minnesota got for Percy Harvin, I’d argue don’t jeopardise the deal. After all, the difference between the #25 pick and the #13 pick is worth more than a 2014 third rounder and a 2013 seventh. Plus the Vikings would’ve had the freedom to franchise Harvin next year. Plus Harvin isn’t coming off an ACL injury.

In fact, why hasn’t this deal been completed yet? Surely the Jets won’t blow this opportunity? Sure, Revis is a good player. A very good player. But they’ll lose him for nothing next year anyway. That much is almost guaranteed. Get the deal done already.

The Seahawks’ pick is fairly straightforward. I think they have to consider what defensive tackles are on the board at #56. In this situation I considered the pick a bit of a no-brainer. While Jesse Williams is considered a borderline first rounder in some quarters, ESPN’s Scouts Inc ranks him as the #55 overall prospect and Mike Mayock only has him as the #5 ranked 3-4 defensive end (below even William Gholston).

There are two things to remember here in terms of a potential fall. Firstly, Williams seems to get banged up a little bit. Nothing too serious, but he left games as a junior and senior. He missed the Senior Bowl. He didn’t do all the drills at the combine. Secondly, he’s not a pass rusher. He’s a one-dimensional defender who excels in holding position and taking away running lanes.

He reminds me a little bit of Stephen Paea who went #53 overall in 2011. Williams is bigger in size, but Paea has greater core strength (as emphasised by his 49 reps of the bench press). Both will be effective against the run. The Seahawks weren’t particularly hard to run against in the second half of the 2012 season. Put Williams alongside Brandon Mebane and a healthy Red Bryant and that might change. Plus, he has the flexibility to cover Bryant at end which could be crucial.

I’ve included a possible third round pick for the Seahawks at the bottom of the article — Xavier Nixon, left tackle from Florida who’s more likely to end up on the right side in the NFL.

I also wanted to represent a report today suggesting Cordarrelle Patterson could drop into round two, with LSU’s Eric Reid heading in the opposite direction. Patterson has a lot of physical talent as a kick returner and open field runner. Yet he’ll come into the league needing to learn pretty much everything from scratch. He has one year of experience in the NCAA playing receiver, didn’t run any complex routes and his technique catching the ball (always into the body) leaves a lot to be desired. He’s quite a reclusive personality too which I suspect will be difficult for teams to judge. How badly does this guy want to be great? He’ll need to want it, given the sheer number of technical improvements he has to make.

That could lead to a fall. This report, if true, wouldn’t shock me. But of course at this time of year, teams just love to put out a lot of misinformation. So tread carefully.

As for Reid, he’s a brutish safety in the Kam Chancellor mould. While he had a pretty average year for LSU in 2012, I can see why teams needing a hard-hitting safety will look his way. He’s better than Taylor Mays who went in the second round. Quite a few people who’ve worked in the league have talked positively about Reid this off-season.

By the way, if you missed it earlier Kip wrote a fantastic piece on the late round quarterback options for Seattle. Make sure you check it out.

First round

	#1 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) They’re keeping their cards close to their chest. It’ll be Fisher, Luke Joeckel or Dion Jordan, surely?

	#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple.

	#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) This will be a long rebuild.

	#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Hard to pass on a player who can lock down the left tackle position for years to come.

	#5 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) Again, I just have a hunch that he’ll go earlier than most people expect.

	#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season.

	#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade.

	#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb.

	#9 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) He could line up in multiple looks for Rex Ryan.

	#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) It’s hard not to love this guy.

	#11 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) With the top left tackles off the board, they’re forced to look elsewhere.

	#12 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) A lot of men in that Miami front office like road grader-style tackles.

	#13 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) He’s too good to stay on the board for long. It seems certain this pick will be traded by Tampa Bay for Darrelle Revis.

	#14 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) Another solid addition to that Panthers defense.

	#15 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) Local connections plus they need a pass rusher.

	#16 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) They need an outside linebacker.

	#17 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia) He could sink in a bad way, but he is the prototype fit at outside linebacker in Pittsburgh’s scheme.

	#18 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) This would be a nice get for Dallas.

	#19 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) He could fall further than this.

	#20 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Fills a need. Athletic potential could make this a steal. Character concerns linger.

	#21 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Fierce hitter with playmaking qualities.

	#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) They must have a physical runner in this division.

	#23 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Talent-wise he deserves to go in round one.

	#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse) A huge need for the Colts.

	#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back for the Notre Dame hat-trick?

	#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings is in Minnesota. They could go for a pass catcher here.

	#27 Robert Woods (WR, USC) Receiver looks like a strong option here.

	#28 Eric Reid (S, LSU) Perhaps we under estimated his upside? Talk today suggests he could be a first round pick. He does have admirers.

	#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State) Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe.

	#30 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State) He hopes to work out on April 20th.

	#31 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA) Defensive line will get early attention you’d think.

	#32 Margus Hunt (DE, SMU) Who knows where this guy will be drafted? This isn’t out of the question.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#40 Tennessee – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#41 Buffalo – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#42 Miami – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#43 Tampa Bay – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#44 Carolina – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#45 San Diego – Terron Armstead (T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff)
#46 St. Louis – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#47 Dallas – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#49 New York Giants – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#50 Chicago – Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin)
#51 Washington – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#52 Minnesota – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)
#53 Cincinnati – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#54 Miami – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#55 Green Bay – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#56 Seattle – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#57 Houston – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#58 Denver – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#60 Atlanta – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)

Seahawks 3rd round pick: Xavier Nixon (T, Florida)

No trades in the mock this week (just to mix things up a bit). As noted yesterday, I think we’ll see a ton of first round deals on April 25th so take this with a grain of salt (you possibly already do). I’ve tried to think outside of the box and make a few surprise choices.

It’s been revealed the following players will be attending the draft in New York: Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel, Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Cooper, Sharrif Floyd, Lane Johnson, Ziggy Ansah, Kenny Vaccaro, D.J. Fluker, Eric Fisher, Menelik Watson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, Xavier Rhodes, Margus Hunt, Barkevious Mingo and Dee Milliner. Dion Jordan is still considering his invite.

I remain perplexed, confused and intrigued by what Seattle is going to do at #56. It seems like nothing is off the table. In fact, looking at the options available for round three, it wouldn’t surprise me if they traded out of the second round. In the end I went with a big defensive tackle who’s one of those players who could easily go in round one or round three. John Jenkins is massive. He’s also pretty agile for his size. However, his tape is inconsistent and the big question is will that inconsistency improve in a situation where you can better manage his snaps? Seattle appears to want size at tackle. Big early, tough to run against, then unleash the hounds. That seems to be the aim here. Jenkins would fit into that.

Whether a guy at 6-4 and around 340 is the answer, I’m not sure. They seem to prefer length and decent size, instead of those enormous nose tackle types. Alan Branch, Tony McDaniel — both big tackles, but not 340lbs. I was tempted to go for Kyle Long as a player capable of playing both guard and tackle.

If you missed it earlier, make sure you check out Kip’s piece on quarterback options for Seattle in the draft.

I also want to remind everyone that you can now purchase Seattle’s new ‘draft cap’ through Seahawks Draft Blog by clicking the image below. Help the blog and support the Seahawks during ‘draft month’.

First round

	#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Still seems the most likely pick.

	#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple.

	#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) This will be a long rebuild.

	#4 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) I just have a hunch someone will fall in love with Austin enough to make him a higher pick than we expect.

	#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) Fills a need at left tackle. Could be Dee Milliner here.

	#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season.

	#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade.

	#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb.

	#9 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) He could line up in multiple looks for Rex Ryan.

	#10 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) He’s been cleared medically.

	#11 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) Again, another hunch. Brown could go earlier than we think.

	#12 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) With the top tackles off the board, why not take Warmack?

	#13 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut) One way or another, I think the Buccs end up with Darrelle Revis.

	#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Flat out steal if it happens.

	#15 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA) Athletic potential could = top 15.

	#16 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Tremendous player, who could feature at guard or center.

	#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) A good fit for both parties.

	#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) They just signed Tony Romo to a mega deal. Giving him Dez Bryant and Cordarrelle Patterson to throw to would be fun.

	#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He could fall further than this.

	#20 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Fills a need. Athletic potential could make this a steal. Character concerns linger.

	#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.

	#22 Robert Woods (WR, USC) If they’re looking for a weapon on offense, Woods could be in play.

	#23 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) He’s good but is he special enough to go earlier?

	#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse) A huge need for the Colts.

	#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back to the Notre Dame well?

	#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings is in Minnesota. They could go for a pass catcher here.

	#27 Keenan Allen (WR, Houston) Receiver looks like a strong option here.

	#28 Matt Elam (S, Florida) He did well enough at the combine to warrant a place in round one.

	#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State) Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe.

	#30 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State) He hopes to work out on April 20th.

	#31 Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International) Safety is a key need for the Niners.

	#32 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) The Ravens often look for value, rather than simply filling needs.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Matt Scott (QB, Arizona)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Buffalo – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#42 Miami – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#43 Tampa Bay – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#44 Carolina – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#45 San Diego – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#46 St. Louis – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
#49 New York Giants – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#50 Chicago – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#53 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#55 Green Bay – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#56 Seattle – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#57 Houston – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#58 Denver – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#59 New England – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#60 Atlanta – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#61 San Francisco – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)

I was half expecting something to happen this weekend. Kam Chancellor getting a new deal. Tony McDaniel signing. Whatever. It’s been as quiet and slow this week as the previous seven days were explosive and enthralling.

John Schneider’s admittance that the next priority is to extend the contracts of their own players suggested something might be close. Maybe this will take a little longer than expected? Once Chancellor gets his new contract (and it’s probably a formality) they’ll see how much cap room remains and plan from there. We could see further cuts as this things get worked out, especially if they also want to offer new deals to Earl Thomas and Golden Tate too.

Until then I guess everything else is on hold. Seattle’s two greatest needs on paper still seem to be defensive tackle and linebacker. They are the only two positions where they’re potentially losing starters.

There’s every chance they’ve identified two replacements in the draft and have an exceptionally strong feeling they’ll land the players they want. After all, they made such plans for Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson last year. Perhaps we’ll see many of the defensive tackles falling into the late second, giving the Seahawks a pool of talent to choose from? Maybe they know a mid-to-late linebacker who’s going to come in and compete for (and possibly win) the starting WILL job?

Or perhaps they feel comfortable with this being a deep class until about the mid-third round and appreciate they’ll get a pretty good player whatever the circumstances?

In that scenario, nothing is out of the question. So while defensive tackle and WILL are holes that need to be filled, they aren’t such striking needs that they simply must be addressed without question on day two of the draft.

We’ve discussed the option of drafting a swing guard/tackle prospect at #56 when I mocked Dallas Thomas to Seattle a couple of weeks ago. I still think they feel good enough about their coaching situation and ability to find players to avoid going offensive line early. I think we could see another raw talent added like J.R. Sweezy. Another project for Tom Cable. Overall there’s already quality depth at guard on the roster and getting a veteran backup tackle isn’t exactly difficult.

The other dynamic though is the constant thought process of planning ahead. Cheap labour is vital for Seattle when they’re making all these exciting moves for Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Golden Tate, Brandon Browner, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright (plus others) all earn a relative pittance. Eventually, some will earn the big bucks. So finding ways to make savings elsewhere will be crucial if the plan is to keep the team intact.

Regular visitors will know I’m a fan of Breno Giacomini. I think he gets a raw deal from fans based purely on a laundry list of penalties early in the 2012 season. The perception stuck that Giacomini wasn’t doing his job. The reality, in my view, was very different. Once he’d cut out the mental errors and penalties, he thrived. Watch him perform against a collection of the league’s best pass rushers and you’ll see what I mean. He had a terrific 2012 season on the whole.

However, regular visitors will also know how often we’ve debated the importance of the right tackle position. A right tackle has the benefit of protecting a quarterback’s strong side, he often gets help from a tight end and they’re mostly judged on their ability to create running lanes. There are still teams (like Seattle) who keep their best pass rusher attacking the blind side. Any right tackle coming up against the Seahawks for example has to pass-protect against Red Bryant for the first two downs. It’s not a premium position and it’s the main reason why so few teams put a lot of emphasis on it. Most people would struggle to name more than five right tackles in the NFL. There’s a reason for that.

I firmly believe you can and should be able to plug guys into that role with good coaching. And yet Breno Giacomini is due to earn $4.25m in 2013 in the final year of his contract.

That’s pretty high.

One way around this could be to sign an extension now, giving Giacomini long-term security while spreading out the cost over (let’s say) a three-year deal. As much as a right tackle can be plugged in, consistency is also key. Keeping the same faces together on the offensive line is one of the best ways to create a productive unit. Five guys have to work as one.

If a new contract doesn’t happen, then Giacomini might be one of the players you can make a saving on down the line. Rather than continue to pay him $4.25m (or a similar amount) you could pay a player drafted with the #56 pick a salary worth $1.2m at it’s highest point. Ohio State tackle Mike Adams was the #56 pick last year (taken by Pittsburgh). His cap hit as a rookie was $644K. He will take up $805K in 2013, $966K in 2014 and $1.12m in 2015. That’s a considerable saving compared to the money Giacomini is earning this season.

Even if Giacomini is willing to take a long term contract to lessen the cap hit, he’s not going to accept a salary as low as the one Mike Adams signed. So even as a self-confessed member of the Breno Giacomini fan-club, I understand a situation where he moves on next year.

The best way to maximise the cap saving would be to draft a rookie next year as a direct replacement. However, this also means a rookie would have to start immediately and that comes with its own pitfalls. Drafting a player this year and using 2013 as preparation could be useful. And it’s the main reason why I’m identifying Kyle Long in this piece.

Most people are aware of his back-story, but here’s a quick summary. He’s the son of Howie and brother of Chris, but actually went to Florida State to play baseball. It’s a little bit odd that he didn’t play football until his sophomore year at High School given his bloodlines, but I’ve not been able to find any information as to why that was. He failed out at FSU and was arrested for a DUI in 2009. Apparently Howie gave him a few home truths during this time and after a year away from sport, he went down the JUCO route and eventually ended up at Oregon where he played tackle and guard.

On tape he looks like a guy with limited football experience. There are occasions where he very clearly struggles to identify what a defense is going to do and this is more evident, perhaps worryingly, against the run. Strangely for a guy with his size and attitude, he’s better in pass protection. Guys like that often get labelled as ‘finesse’ but he’s not what you’d call ‘a technician’. I think he just needs more coaching and more time on the field.

And yet physically he has so much potential and absolutely looks the part at 6-6 and 313lbs. The Seahawks seem to want size not just at defensive tackle, but also on the offensive line. James Carpenter is massive while Giacomini is 6-7. None of the other guys are ‘small’ either. Long could theoretically work as a guard or tackle in Seattle’s scheme. He’s agile and sinks his hips well to get leverage on pass plays. His hand use is relatively good but could still use some improvement. He’s relaxed and confident when defending the edge and does a good job mirroring rushers. One look at his frame and he appears made to play in the NFL — and he has the upper body power to eventually excel against the run. He’s an athlete playing on the offensive line and these days, those guys are rare. It’s why he could still work his way into the early second round.

Given all his issues at Florida State, his lack of experience and the fact he was concentrating on baseball just a few years ago, his rise to prominence is fairly spectacular. If the upward curve continues, you could be looking at a high-value pick — especially for a team that has one of the best in the business working the offensive line.

He seems tailor-made to spend a year with Cable enhancing his skills. The Seahawks were happy to spell Sweezy with John Moffitt last year to give the rookie needed time on the field. Why wouldn’t they do the same between Long and Giacomini? Then in 2014 you have a well prepared athletic specimen to come in at right tackle who is earning $800k instead of $4.2m.

I also get the sense Pete Carroll would buy into the NFL pedigree and ‘name’ value of Long, plus the potential. The only thing that might be holding them back is the evidence they are prepared to search for diamonds in the rough such as Sweezy, lessening the desire to go for offensive lineman early. Yet in many ways drafting Long is a move that makes a lot of sense — especially when it comes to cap room and finances going forward.

Most people voted in favour of keeping trades in the mock, so that’s what I’ve done. There are nine in total this week — a comparable amount to what we saw in the first round last year. Looking at this draft class overall I think we’ll see a lot of cheap movement. We might see a handful of deals that go against market value. A lot of the teams picking in the 11-20 range for example might want to move up to fill a certain need. But I can also see a few teams (like Cleveland) that’ll be more than happy to move down.

Buffalo (#8) trades with Jacksonville (#2) for a 2nd round pick + 2014 2nd rounder
The Jaguars sent a convoy to Geno Smith’s pro-day but this looked like a classic smokescreen. They’ll almost certainly look to move down. With Chris Mortensen repeatedly linking Oakland to Geno Smith, this could force potential suitors to act. Buffalo GM Buddy Nix said during the 2012 season that it could be time to move up and get a quarterback. I suspect Smith will go second overall, it’s just a case of which team moves up.

San Diego (#11) trades with Cleveland (#6) for a 2nd round pick
This makes too much sense. The Browns don’t have a second rounder after taking Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft last year. The Chargers need a left tackle badly. Assuming one of Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson is still on the board at #6 — San Diego could move up to get their guy.

Carolina (#14) trades with Arizona (#7) for a 3rd + 5th round pick
The Cardinals need to put down some roots at quarterback. Last year was a farce. And with the possibility of the top-three tackles going early, it takes away their other big need as an alternative. Having said that, they could move down and get the next best available quarterback. Carolina might be prepared to move up and fill a big need at defensive tackle. With Sharrif Floyd still available in this projection, they do just that.

Dallas (#18) trades with Cleveland (#11) for a 3rd + 5th round pick
Jerry Jones has shown a willingness to move up in the draft. The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 and need the pieces to make it work. Jay Ratliff’s latest arrest is a concern and Dallas might be considering moving on. They could move up to get Star Lotulelei. He did everything at his pro-day today and the medical news appears to be positive.

Chicago (#20) trades with Tampa Bay (#13) for a 3rd round pick
The Bears don’t have a ton of needs but they can’t be totally satisfied with their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod. Trading up for a guard is uncommon, but Jonathan Cooper is up there with Chance Warmack and Mike Iupati as players worth taking in this range. Tampa Bay knows it can get a cornerback at #20.

Minnesota (#23) trades with New York (#19) for a 4th round pick
The Vikings have two first round picks and might use one to move up and get a playmaker at receiver. Even after signing Greg Jennings, they could use another X-factor type like Cordarrelle Patterson. The Giants have plenty of defensive options remaining in this scenario and feel comfortable moving down four spots.

Atlanta (#30) trades with Green Bay (#26) for a 4th round pick
With Bjoern Werner falling into the 20’s, Atlanta trades up to get an impact pass rusher. The value at #26 isn’t great for Green Bay’s needs so I’d guess they’ll be willing to move down.

San Francisco (#31) trades with Indianapolis (#24) for a 4th + 5th round pick
The Niners aren’t going to keep 14 rookies on their roster, so it stands to reason that they’ll move up at some point. Datone Jones looks like an ideal fit for their defensive front. Indianapolis, like Green Bay, aren’t going to get value at #24 if they want to target the offensive live. A trade makes sense for both teams. The Colts would probably like to get some extra picks after trading a 2nd round choice for Vontae Davis last season.

Philadelphia (#35) trades with Baltimore (#32) for a 5th round pick
Last year the Buccaneers moved back into the late first to select Doug Martin. Denver traded down for a pittance, knowing they could get Derek Wolfe on day two. We could see something similar here. The Eagles re-signed Michael Vick but he’s not the future. Neither is Nick Foles in this offense. E.J. Manuel is trending upwards.

Seattle’s pick in round two is fairly straightforward. It appears they are concentrating on re-signing Kam Chancellor and maybe also Earl Thomas and Golden Tate. We’ll see how much cap room they have left when those talks are concluded. If they’re unable to sign a free agent defensive tackle, it becomes a big need in the draft. And if Sylvester Williams drops to #56 he has to be an option. His age (25 year old rookie) will put some teams off. The depth at tackle is also likely to push some attractive options down the board.

Don’t forget — We’ve teamed up with NFLSHOP.com so you can get hold of a new Percy Harvin jersey. So if you want to support the Seahawks on gameday with an online purchase, do it through Seahawks Draft Blog!

First round

	#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Their reported willingness to discuss a trade for Branden Albert makes this a formality.

	#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) Buddy Nix said it was time to move up and get their quarterback.

	#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They need to build a foundation. Jordan has as much talent as anyone in this draft.

	#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) Having made significant moves to boost the defense in free agency, they now concentrate on the offensive live.

	#5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) With Joeckel and Fisher off the board, they take the best corner.

	#6 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) Having seen Joeckel and Fisher leave the board, they don’t wait to see if Johnson will be there at #11.

	#7 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) Perhaps Carolina’s biggest need. They pay a big price to jump ahead of Jacksonville.

	#8 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) He’s too good to pass up.

	#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball. A solid pick with no long term issues if there’s a coaching change.

	#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) Someone is likely to take a chance on Ansah in the top-ten.

	#11 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 and need an interior presence. Jerry Jones is not afraid to move up. This is health permitting.

	#12 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) The Dolphins could do with improving their secondary.

	#13 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Ok, they signed Jermon Bushrod. They still need to keep building that line. And I think they know it.

	#14 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) After moving down for an extra two, they get their quarterback of the future.

	#15 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Some teams will still be cautious, but if Jones’ back injury really isn’t as serious as feared — he should be a top-15 pick.

	#16 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon.

	#17 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Pittsburgh needs a linebacker and someone will roll the dice on his talent.

	#18 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) After trading down twice to accumulate picks, the Browns get a tight end for Rob Chudzinski.

	#19 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) Rather than hang about, Minnesota moves up to secure Patterson.

	#20 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut) I just have a hunch there will be teams who rate this guy very highly.

	#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.

	#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) With Steven Jackson in Atlanta, they need another big, physical runner to win in the NFC West.

	#23 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He drops a bit and New York halts his slide.

	#24 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA) The Niners need to bolster that defensive front and they have the picks to move up.

	#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?

	#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.

	#27 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) One of the hardest players to judge this year. Something puts me off this guy, despite the size and speed.

	#28 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) They need to improve a porous secondary.

	#29 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) He could be Tom Brady’s new best friend.

	#30 Robert Woods (WR, USC) They move down and grab a pass-catcher. This is a need considering they’ve lost both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

	#31 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse) Maybe Indy’s biggest need?

	#32 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State) Like Tampa Bay last year (Doug Martin) the Eagles manufacture a cheap trade to move back into round one.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco- Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Baltimore – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#36 Detroit – Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#38 Arizona – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#41 Jacksonville – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#42 Miami – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#43 Tampa Bay – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#45 Cleveland – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#46 St. Louis – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Johnthan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#50 Chicago – Keenan Allen (WR, Syracuse)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#57 Houston – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas)
#58 Denver – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)
#59 New England – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#60 Atlanta – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)

This piece was partly inspired by a reader comment on Sunday. ‘Bobk333’ wrote in the Gavin Escobar article that he considered Robert Woods the most underrated player in the draft, stating:

Woods has all the markings of a *great* – as in all-pro, as in hall-of-fame potential – NFL receiver. Speed is important for an NFL wideout, but the importance has been taken to the extreme. Skill in catching the ball, running routes, fooling defenders, along with intelligence, timing and body control, are more important than raw speed in the 40-yd dash. Woods reminds me of skilled, smooth, intelligent, crafty receivers like Lynn Swann, Jerry Rice and Steve Largent who had extraordinary hands and extraordinary attitudes, who were hard working and ran perfect routes with perfect body position, with the god-given talent of being to fool defenders with seemingly minimal effort.

Robert Woods is the Russell Wilson of this year’s draft. He has the most potential for greatness not only among the receivers but among all the players coming out this year.

It’s easy to forget just how highly rated Woods became before Marqise Lee burst onto the scene at USC. He exploded as a true freshman and started his sophomore year putting up crazy numbers. 17 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota, 14 catches for 255 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona, twelve catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns against Notre Dame. He was on fire.

Yet as Lee emerged as a true freshman in 2011, Woods’ role diminished. By 2012 he was no longer the focal point of the passing attack And while he still had some big games, it was Marqise Lee making the headlines and breaking the records.

When Woods declared for the 2013 NFL draft, he delivered the following knockout quote: “If the coaches wanted to keep me another year they would have probably got me the ball.”

He’s since claimed he was mis-quoted and I’m told even tweeted the reporter who wrote the story to make that point.

The point is, Marqise Lee is probably going to be a top-15 pick one day. He is insanely talented. That’s what people were saying about Woods. His stock appears to have fallen simply because USC had two studs for Matt Barkley to throw to instead of one. Let’s say Lee commits to another college team. If Woods continued his strong production from early 2011, he would’ve probably won a Biletnikoff by now. He’d be the superstar receiver in Southern Cal. And his stock would probably be much higher.

He ran two unofficial 4.44’s at the combine (later moved to a 4.5 officially). He’s not Tavon Austin, but he’s certainly faster than a lot of the other receivers at the combine. He looked good at 6-0 and 201lbs. In many ways he’s Percy Harvin-lite. I suspect Pete Carroll saw that comparison physically. He maybe saw a little Percy in Robert Woods.

If you look at mock drafts these days you’ll see Woods in the second or third round range. I still think he could and maybe should be a first round pick. And if you can get him any later than that, make the pick and feel good about it. Would I consider him at #56? Sure. Why not? Sometimes you just can’t look a gift-horse in the mouth. The Seahawks don’t need an army of receivers in the 5-10-6-1 range, but they do need as much talent as they can find. Woods will improve any roster.

Watch the first video below and the first thing that stands out to me is his competitive nature. The athleticism is there for everyone to see. He can run, he can make plays. Yet it’s the way he competes in the air that’s so impressive and may attract him to Seattle despite their depth at receiver.

0:21 – he makes a difficult grab over the middle in tight coverage, high pointing the ball and showing strong hands with a defender draped all over him.

2:06 – Barkley makes a high throw off his back foot. Woods knows he’s going to get drilled, but makes a fingertip grab. Despite a suplex from the UCLA defensive back, he somehow maintains possession of the ball.

2:40 – Woods lays out over the middle, diving at full stretch to make an athletic catch. Again, he risked his own health (defender also diving for it) to get the first down.

3:17 – This is one of the best touchdowns you’ll see from the 2012 season. I still don’t know how he completes this catch at the back of the end zone. He was well covered (so much so, the ref’s called pass interference) and showed such amazing concentration, hands and body control. Superb.

4:29 – Another example of high pointing the football, showing complete control through the catch and not hearing footsteps from the defensive back.

6:28 – Thrown over the middle. Woods is being tackled in mid-air before the ball even arrives. No problem. He still maintains concentration, corrals the football and makes a first down.

There are other throws in the videos below where you’ll see further evidence of a guy who plays with a spark. He competes to make difficult grabs. He’s not 6-4 and 220lbs, but he plays above his listed height and weight. I like the way he reacts after a catch. He’s pumped up. It’s an all-round attitude that’ll serve him well at the next level.

Can he be a #1 receiver? I believe he can. I think he can run any route, make any play. I think immediately he’ll be a threat as a kick returner while also fitting into a NFL offense. When a play breaks down he finds a way to give his quarterback an option — an underrated feature not often talked about with college players. Woods shows strong hands (not too much of a body catcher) and he can make plays away from his frame.

He’s not a flawless player by any means — he had frustrating days at USC with occasional mental errors. He lacks the truly elite size. While Harvin has shown the ability to run away from players with ease, Woods struggles to go up through the gears quickly. He won’t be a big time YAC threat or a great downfield receiver. He’s not a home run hitter.

However, he’s suddenly plummeting down draft boards because he’s unfashionable. He’s a USC guy (when did that become such a negative?) without prototype size. Whatever. He should be in the early second round discussion at worst. I’d happily spend a pick in the late first to get him on my team if I needed a receiver. At any stage beyond that the value seems too good to pass.

If he does fall as far as #56 (perhaps unrealistic) the Seahawks could be ready to pounce. By 2014 Sidney Rice’s contract might be untenable. We don’t know whether Golden Tate will be retained (he’s a free agent after 2013) or whether Doug Baldwin can continue to factor in the offense. Even despite the Harvin trade, it’s not ridiculous for Seattle to consider drafting another playmaking receiver. Planning ahead is going to be crucial for this team to stay ahead of the curve. The eventual savings made by replacing Rice, Zach Miller and others on the cheap will help keep some of the teams underpaid stars in Seattle.

I can see a future where Harvin and Woods are Russell Wilson’s answer to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. For those wondering, both Harrison and Wayne are 6-0. And yet they created a dynamic combination for Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. I see no reason why Harvin and Woods cannot do the same in Seattle. Frankly I doubt he does make it to #56. Personally, I hope he does. And I hope the Seahawks are ready to take advantage if it happens, even with needs elsewhere.

As Bobk333 said on Sunday, he might be this years answer to Russell Wilson. He might be the most underrated player in the 2013 draft.

I was a big fan of Anthony McCoy going into the 2010 draft. He never put up big numbers at USC, but the potential was clear to see. Without the character red flags and better production, he had first or second round talent. Of course, those are two pretty big issues. And that’s why he dropped to the sixth round.

Pete Carroll has taken only a handful of players he coached in college. He’s been quite selective overall (see: Lawrence Jackson, Lofa Tatupu) and its testament to McCoy’s potential despite the red flags that he was given a shot. None of the off-field concerns have re-emerged in Seattle so far. With Kellen Winslow failing to make the roster and Cameron Morrah landing on injured reserve, he ended up as the teams #2 tight end last year. And he did pretty well. He certainly managed to limit the drops — an issue that lingered the previous season. He scored three touchdowns for a team that didn’t pass all that much in 2012, with 291 yards.

In some ways you could say that was the next stage of a slow development process. He’s still only 25 and won’t turn 26 until December 28th. With Russell Wilson blossoming into a leading quarterback by the end of the year, any pass-catcher playing for this team is likely to benefit in the future. The addition of Percy Harvin could limit the amount of 2TE sets they use (it stands to reason they’ll want to put Harvin, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate on the field more often than not) but it’s unlikely to be banished to the back of the playbook. McCoy, if he continues as the #2 tight end, could still play a role for this team.

Before the Harvin trade most people expected the Seahawks to explore the possibility of getting a ‘move’ tight end to act as a Joker in certain packages. This would obviously be a big, mobile target who can run a lot of receiver routes but allow the Seahawks to use a lot of big sets up front. They could still look for that guy and you could easily argue they need another tall receiver who can exploit single coverage and high point the football. They tried out Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow for a reason. I’m not sure they completely abandon that quest for height now that they’ve brought in an explosive guy like Harvin. Targeting a late round guy like Rutgers’ Mark Harrison makes sense.

Yet anyone they do bring in is probably going to need to offer something different. Just like Harvin, I suppose. When I watch Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State) I fear he might just be a little too similar to what they already have in McCoy.

Escobar is 6-6 while McCoy is 6-5. Both players ran in the 4.8’s pre-draft. There’s a weight difference of about 5lbs. And while either player is capable of making those difficult, eye catching grabs in traffic — they’re also capable of the occasional miss.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Escobar as a prospect. I expected him to run faster at the combine (I also expected McCoy to run faster than he did). And there are things he does a little better than McCoy. In his combine work out (see below) he looked a bit more fluid and mobile. I remember the play against St. Louis where McCoy was wide open, Wilson hits him downfield and he kind of awkwardly rumbled forward before being brought down. I think Escobar would’ve been a little sharper in that situation, turning up field and perhaps making more of the opportunity. He seems to keep his balance well for a big guy and he just looks smooth out there. I’d give Escobar the edge as a catcher too — he has soft hands and that’s a pretty handsome looking gauntlet drill in the video below:

I’m sure I read somewhere that John Schneider and his staff look at the roster and have a grading system for each player. Then they look at what’s available and try to see where the biggest possible upgrades can be made in free agency or a draft. When they look at the #2 tight end position, I’m sure they’ll feel it’s an area they can improve. McCoy isn’t Jimmy Graham after all. And I’m not sure you’d feel totally satisfied if he had to take over from Miller either temporarily or full time. But I’m not sure the areas where Escobar has the edge (balance, slightly better athlete, softer hands) will be enough to say, “we need to draft this guy in round two”. I doubt he’ll be available for the Seahawks beyond that range.

I think he’ll be at his best working on the second level where the height and reach becomes an advantage. He’ll be a good checkdown option and could develop into a reliable third down target. I do think Escobar has a shot to be an effective receiver who can find little soft zones and make key grabs. He should also be effective in the red zone at that size. Throw the ball up to him on a fade and there’s a good chance he’ll bring it down.

But if the Seahawks are going to draft a tight end early, they probably need to do more than offer a slight upgrade over Anthony McCoy. Both Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz ran receiver routes in college, they’ve both shown a similar ability to make grabs at the second level but they’ve also shown they can stretch the field a little bit more. Eifert is a better athlete, Ertz was Stanford’s leading receiver. Despite concerns over Ertz’s 4.7 at the combine, watching him run deep against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl told me all I need to know. I’m not convinced either player makes it to #56, but they’re probably going to have to if the Seahawks draft for this position in the second round.

Free agency has tailed off across the league this weekend despite a number of key names remaining available. Perhaps everyone is taking stock? The league meetings in Arizona are probably having an impact. It could kick start again this week but it’ll be interesting to see what (if any) moves Seattle go for. They only had two starters hitting free agency this year — Alan Branch and Leroy Hill. The defensive tackle and linebacker positions both remain unfilled. Amid the excitement of last week’s triple signing of Harvin, Avril and Bennett, we all talked about how open the draft would be for this team. Yet if those holes remain unfilled by late April —  it’s still hard to look beyond a defensive tackle and a linebacker with those two ‘day two’ picks.

It’ll be very interesting to see whether Branch in particular re-signs with the Seahawks. The noises so far (we’ve talked to his agent etc) don’t sound promising. It could be leverage. Or it could be an indication that they truly believe they can fill that hole in the draft. If they don’t go with Branch then a defensive tackle has to be the favourite at #56.

Below you’ll find Escobar’s tape against Boise State from 2012. The video at the top of the article shows two games versus Washington State and Michigan from 2011.

The Seahawks did exactly what they set out to do — improve the pass rush. Pete Carroll made it clear as soon as the 2012 season ended. That was the #1 priority. And while most of us assumed they’d find a solution in the draft, who would’ve guessed they’d find what they were looking for in free agency?

Here we are, days into the new league year, and there are high-profile players seemingly sat at home waiting to make even their first visit. The market is shot. And it’s worked to Seattle’s advantage. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were expected to get mega deals, but the offers never came in. So they signed modest contracts with a contender to enhance their earning potential in the future. It’s win-win.

Avril fills the prospective hole left by Chris Clemons while he recovers from an ACL. Bennett almost certainly replaces Jason Jones as a hybrid pass rusher. He’s like Jason Jones+ — he can play the nickel three technique position but he can pretty much line up anywhere. If the Seahawks have a two-score lead in the fourth quarter, why not switch to an orthodox four man front with Bennett and Avril playing the edge? I suspect we’ll see him all over the line. He’s more versatile than Jason Jones but essentially, he fills that void.

Imagine if Clemons makes a recovery and what kind of options will be open to Seattle then? Avril, Bennett, Clemons and Bruce Irvin. Scary.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has a great piece on how Dan Quinn might look to use all the weapons at his disposal. This could be a much more attack-minded defensive line going forward. Not so much because there’s going to be any great ideological changes — but with an explosive offense capable of building big leads, Quinn and Carroll will have more opportunities to attack.

The two key need areas remaining are defensive tackle and linebacker. I do think we’ll see further moves in free agency to address at least one of these needs (Alan Branch?). Releasing Ben Obomanu today brought some cap relief, so there’s room for a modest addition at least. I think we’ll see further moves on the way too. What it all means is the Seahawks can pretty much do whatever they want at #56 and I wanted to emphasise that in this week’s mock. I haven’t gone for a prospect who will fill one of the two key needs. I haven’t gone for a player I think they’ll definitely be monitoring. It’s a pick that kind of emphasises that anything could happen now. The roster is good enough to justify any move.

I went for Tennessee’s versatile lineman Dallas Thomas. He’s a player I’m very fond of — athletic, strong and he gave Jadeveon Clowney a run for his money in October (he’s one of the very few who did last season). He’s capable of playing guard or tackle. He has the kind of height Seattle has looked for on the offensive line (6-5) and he has good size (around 310lbs). At #56 I wondered who might be the pure best player available at a position we might not really consider. I came up with five names — Thomas, Tyler Wilson, Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton and Marcus Lattimore.

I’ve debated with several people on here the teams likely satisfaction with the depth and quality of their offensive line. So what better way to express that anything can happen than to pick a guard/tackle in this mock? Thomas is certainly good enough to warrant the choice. Is it likely? Maybe not. But the Seahawks can feel comfortable doing it if they wish.

I wouldn’t rule out any of the other names either. John Schneider worked on a Green Bay front office that drafted Brian Brohm in the late second round despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on the roster. If Carroll feels drafting Woods or Wheaton to spell Percy Harvin on kick off’s is the best move, so be it. And if they want to bank Marcus Lattimore for a redshirt year knowing what he’s capable of when healthy, why not?

I’m at the stage now where any player at any position really is on the table. Seattle has the quality and depth to do whatever they want. So sit back and enjoy.

There are several trades in the first round again this week. We know we’ll see moves and given the way free agency has played out, I felt obliged to include some deals again. I will go back to a conventional mock next week. Unless people prefer seeing trades?

Buffalo trades from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation — 2nd + 2014 second rounder)
The Bills just cut Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tarvaris Jackson is the next man up. Buddy Nix said it during the regular season — it’s time to go and get that quarterback. This front office has taken a first round prospect they’ve had come in for a visit for the last three years. It was revealed this week that Geno Smith will take a trip to Buffalo. The Jags are content to move down in this scenario.

San Diego trades from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation — 2nd round pick)
The Browns don’t have a second round pick so this makes some sense. The Chargers move up to get Eric Fisher. They have to come out of this draft with a left tackle.

Dallas trades from #18 to #14 with Carolina (estimated compensation — 3rd round pick)
Jerry Jones always seems to go after the guy he wants. He might see Jonathan Cooper as the answer to his problems at center. Cooper is good enough to make the switch. Trade up for a center? Again, Cooper is good enough.

Atlanta trades from #30 to #26 with Green Bay (estimated compensation — 4th round pick)
The Falcons, seeing Bjoern Werner fall, make a small move up the board to add a pass rusher that can start immediately.

San Francisco trades from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation — 4th + 5th round pick)
The 49ers can afford to make a move like this, they have enough picks. They go after Datone Jones here. Indy is happy to move down and target Travis Frederick to play center or guard.

Tampa Bay trades from #43 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
We saw discount moves at the end of round one in last years draft and we could see the same here. The Pats love a trade down and Tampa Bay moves up to guarantee they get a cornerback. They moved up to get Doug Martin last year and that worked out pretty well.

Arizona trades from #41 to #32 with Baltimore (estimated compensation — 3rd + 3rd round pick in 2014)
The Cardinals move back into the first round to draft a quarterback.

Note — picks involved in a trade can be identified by ** after the player’s name.

There are no trades in round two. This thing is convoluted enough as it is. And in this projection, the Seahawks re-sign Alan Branch.

First round

	#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) They can pretty much do whatever they want here, but Joeckel probably makes the most sense.

	#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) ** Jumping above Oakland and fending off interest from Cleveland, the Bills make sure they get their guy.

	#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) The Raiders have to start building a core of talent, they have nothing right now. This is a long, painful rebuild.

	#4 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) He’d make a nice fit in Philly’s new 3-4 scheme as a five-technique.

	#5 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback prospect and a fine addition for Detroit if he goes here.

	#6 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) ** I don’t think the Chargers will mess around hoping one of Fisher or Lane Johnson falls to #11.

	#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) They decide a tackle is best value here.

	#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) ** Gus Bradley spent the last three years with Pete Carroll. So he’ll know Barkley’s worth.

	#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) Rex Ryan’s future beyond 2013 is unclear, so go back to running the ball. A solid pick with no long term issues if there’s a coaching change.

	#10 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) Someone’s going to fall in love with his upside.

	#11 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) ** Ray Horton had Darnell Dockett in Arizona. Meet the second coming.

	#12 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) In a draft like this, Austin going in the top-12 wouldn’t shock me at all.

	#13 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Corner is a big need, but Lotulelei could be too good to pass here.

	#14 Jonathan Cooper (G/C, North Carolina) ** Jerry Jones seems to really go after guys he likes. He might consider moving up for Cooper, who could play center for Dallas.

	#15 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia) Some teams will still be cautious, but if Jones’ back injury really isn’t as serious as feared — he should be a top-15 pick.

	#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) A good fit for player and team.

	#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) He looks like a Steeler or a Raven in the making.

	#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) ** The Panthers could use some cheap points on offense. This perhaps takes some of the pressure off Cam Newton.

	#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) The Giants appear to be starting again on defense. That could mean going after an athletic pass rusher.

	#20 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) They’d probably like to keep building their offensive line. Fluker could play guard or tackle.

	#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Someone will take a shot on this guy in round one I think.

	#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) Steven Jackson is off to Atlanta, so they’ll need another big, physical runner to win in the NFC West.

	#23 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Minnesota) He just seems like the kind of receiver Minnesota will go for. Consistent, reliable, driven. A nice partner for Greg Jennings.

	#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) ** The 49ers surely don’t think Glenn Dorsey is the answer? They have enough picks to move up and do this.

	#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?

	#26 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) ** The Falcons move up to get an impact pass rusher.

	#27 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) This is probably a need-meets-value type pick.

	#28 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut) This secondary needs more than just Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie.

	#29 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) ** The Buccs move up into the late first for the second year in a row.

	#30 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) ** They move down and grab a pass-catcher. This is a need considering they’ve lost both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

	#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) ** Maybe Indy’s biggest need?

	#32 E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State) ** I think this would be ill-advised, but he’s done a lot to help his stock this off-season.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#34 San Francisco – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Philadelphia – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
#37 Cincinnati – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#38 Baltimore – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#39 New York Jets – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Jacksonville – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#42 Miami – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#43 New England – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#44 Carolina – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#45 Cleveland – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#46 St. Louis – Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M)
#47 Dallas – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#48 Pittsburgh – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#50 Chicago – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#51 Washington – D.J. Swearinger (S, South Carolina)
#52 Minnesota – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)
#53 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#54 Miami – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#57 Houston – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#58 Denver – Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#60 Atlanta – Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)

Today I’m going to do something I’ve never done before. A mock draft with trades.

Considering the fruitless nature of trying to predict 32 picks anyway, I thought I might as well throw in a few deals to change the angle of the debate.

There’s a good chance we’ll see 8-10 trades in the first round this year, giving the whole thing a completely different feel. There’s no fear factor over acquiring early picks since the new CBA was installed. Teams are more than happy to move up. And I think we’ll see a few significant moves in 2013.

Let’s put it this way — there are no obvious elite picks this year. No Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Jadeveon Clowney or even Cam Newton. So what we could see are teams with needs at the premium positions moving up in cheap(ish) deals to make sure they don’t leave empty handed. Teams who are comfortable at quarterback or left tackle could conceivably be willing to move down given the defensive depth in this draft.

Below you’ll find today’s mock including all the deals (trades are highlighted by ** after the players name). At the bottom of the piece I’ve listed the nine different trades I included with a short blurb for each.

First round

	#1 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They try and trade down, but why would you need to get ahead of Jacksonville? Dion Jordan + Tamba Hali = a way to stop Peyton Manning.

	#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) ** Buddy Nix said his team might have to move up this year to get their guy. They trade ahead of Oakland to secure Geno Smith.

	#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) With Geno Smith off the board they take the best defensive lineman available.

	#4 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) ** Martin Mayhew makes sure he gets a complete cornerback by swapping picks with Philly.

	#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) ** It’s easy to forget what a shambles Philly’s offensive line was last year. Having convinced Detroit to swap picks, they take Fisher at #5.

	#6 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) ** Sensing an opportunity, San Diego trades up to nail the left tackle position indefinitely.

	#7 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) After the fiasco of 2012, don’t expect Arizona to do anything but draft a quarterback here.

	#8 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) ** Assuming he checks out medically, Lotulelei could play the one or five technique in Gus Bradley’s defense.

	#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) The Jets might play it safe with the long term future of Rex Ryan unclear. Go back to the run on offense. Start by drafting Warmack.

	#10 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Not the flashiest pick but Tennessee’s pass rush isn’t as bad as people think.

	#11 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) ** They could’ve taken him at #6 but they still get their guy despite moving down.

	#12 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) Werner won’t fall too far. He makes a nice partner for Cameron Wake.

	#13 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) ** Monte Kiffin loves this guy, so the always-aggressive Jerry Jones moves up again.

	#14 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) Disappointed that Richardson is off the board, they address a different need at receiver instead.

	#15 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) ** Unless they sign Jake Long, they need to be aggressive to get a blind-side blocker. They have to consider trading up.

	#16 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) They want weapons on offense. Here’s a weapon.

	#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) This is a nice fit for player and team.

	#18 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State) ** They can move down a few spots and still get a cornerback.

	#19 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Some team will bite on Ogletree in the top-20

	#20 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) ** Trading down five spots doesn’t hurt the Saints — they still get an edge rusher for the 3-4.

	#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.

	#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) If they’re losing Steven Jackson, then they’ll need a big, physical runner to compete in the NFC West.

	#23 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Rick Spielman has already hit on two other Notre Dame players. Will he try and make it a hat-trick?

	#24 Datone Jones (DT, UCLA) ** They have enough picks to target a defensive lineman and move up.

	#25 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) ** With the pick they got from Atlanta for trading Revis, the Jets trade above Green Bay to get a much needed receiver.

	#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) Donald Driver’s retired, Jermichael Finley might be cut and Greg Jennings is a free agent. They could go for a pass catcher here.

	#27 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) Solid, productive inside linebacker.

	#28 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington) After a horror show in the playoffs, Denver needs to re-boot that secondary.

	#29 Menelik Watson (T, Florida State) ** They need a tackle almost as much as they need a quarterback. Trading up to address the gaping hole at left tackle is a must.

	#30 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) ** Stenosis could lead to a fall. Working out where he goes is like trying to finish a Rubik’s cube.

	#31 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin) ** They need to bulk up the interior offensive line.

	#32 Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn) Should they lose Paul Kruger in free agency, finding an edge rusher will become a priority.

There are nine trades in this week’s mock:

1 – Atlanta trades #30 and a conditional 2014 pick to New York for Darrelle Revis

Thomas Dimitroff is no stranger to big moves (see: Julio Jones). Long before the draft they win the Revis sweepstakes by giving the Jets a first round pick this year and throwing in a conditional second rounder for 2014.

2 – Buffalo trades up from #8 to #2 with Jacksonville (estimated compensation – second round pick)

With Oakland speculated to be showing interest in Geno Smith, the Bills could be pro-active to make sure they get their man. GM Buddy Nix has openly admitted this might be the year to make it happen at the quarterback position. Jacksonville can afford to move down and still improve their pass rush. They have a lot of needs, so acquiring the #41 pick to go with the #33 in round two makes sense.

3 – Detroit trades up from #5 to #4 with Philadelphia (estimated compensation, late round pick)

The Lions make sure they get Milliner by flipping picks with the Eagles for minimal compensation. Philly could use a cornerback, but they might have their eye on other needs. That won’t stop them attempting to lull the Lions into a deal. Minnesota successfully scared Cleveland into swapping picks last year for Trent Richardson. It’s a small price to pay to get your guy.

4 – San Diego trades up from #11 to #6 with Cleveland (estimated compensation, third round pick plus)

With Luke Joeckel still on the board and the Chargers wondering what Arizona will do, they move up to secure a much needed left tackle. Cleveland hasn’t got a second round selection so accumulating another pick in round three makes sense. This would be a good deal for both parties, win-win.

5 – Dallas trades up from #18 to #13 with Tampa Bay (estimated compensation, mid rounder)

Jerry Jones is always willing to be aggressive on draft day. Monte Kiffin was equally aggressive in trying to get Sheldon Richardson to de-commit from Missouri and switch to USC. They need to get the right players to make this switch to a 4-3 work. Richardson surely won’t get past Carolina at #14? Tampa Bay can still get a corner at #18 while also hurting a division rival if the Panthers are targeting Richardson. It could make for a cheap trade with Dallas.

6 – Chicago trades up from #20 to #15 with New Orleans (estimated compensation, mid/late round package)

Unless they want to make a move for Jake Long next week, the Bears are running out of options to protect Jay Cutler. If they see Fisher, Joeckel, Warmack and Cooper leave the board in the top ten, they better get ready to move up. The Saints are down on picks due to the bounty scandal so might be willing to talk about a trade. St. Louis could take Johnson at #16 while other teams (Cincinnati?) may also show interest. Trading up eliminates the competition for Chicago.

7 – San Francisco trades up from #31 to #24 with Indianapolis (estimated compensation, mid rounder)

The 49ers know they need to bolster their defensive front and have enough picks to make a deal. Datone Jones could have a big impact at the five technique and might be the heir apparent for Justin Smith. San Francisco will suspect interest from Seattle, and you just know Harbaugh would love to get one over the Seahawks here. If Indianapolis is looking seriously at Travis Frederick, they can probably afford to trade down first.

8 – New York trades up from #30 to #25 with Seattle (estimated compensation, late rounder)

John Idzik rings his old buddies in Seattle and works out a ‘mates rates’ trade. The Jets need a pass rusher, but they also need to kick start a rank bad offense. Justin Hunter is trending upwards after the combine and could be a target for Green Bay. The Jets swoop in first. Without much competition for pass rushers in the late first round, the Seahawks can afford to move down even if the deal isn’t great (eg, 4th or 5th rounder).

9 Arizona trades up from #38 to #29 with New England (estimated compensation, mid round pick plus)

The Cardinals know they have to get a left tackle and the options remaining are running thin. Similar to Tampa Bay going up to get Doug Martin last year, Arizona takes no chances here and makes a move at the end of day one. Menelik Watson is the best option available and they get the job done so they can relax over night. New England — despite moving up twice in round one last year — always appear willing to move down.

So what about the Seattle’s first pick?

In this scenario, I’m projecting they would’ve shown serious interest in Datone Jones until San Francisco moved up to get him. Accessing that there are still plenty of options at defensive end, tackle, tight end and receiver, the opportunity to move down appears attractive. The new-found connections in New York help things along.

It really came down to two players at #30 — Jarvis Jones and Corey Lemonier.

For the last few weeks, I’ve had Jones dropping out of the first round. This isn’t a wishful attempt to give the Seahawks one of biggest names in the draft. I think we’ve gone through enough different options so far to make that a moot point.

I do believe he’ll suffer a fall on draft day. Stenosis is a bad word in the NFL. While some teams will be willing to take a chance (they always are) others will be wary of the condition making it a short-term investment. Teams picking in the top-20 will have alternatives. It’s just a case of which team is going to take the chance and at what point in the draft.

If he falls into the late first, the Seahawks might be the team. Yes — Pete Carroll has the whole USC history with Jones. And I still think there’s an extremely good chance that’ll stop Seattle considering Jones in round one. However, as discussed in yesterday’s piece — he’s a grown man and nobody is forcing him to pursue a career in the NFL. I think it comes down to the percentage risk of a life threatening injury. If the stenosis is always liable to end his career prematurely, that’s one thing. If it’s liable to ruin his life forever, that’s quite another. I’m not a doctor, I don’t understand the full consequences here. The player himself could fall, but he’s also good enough to be named among 2013’s top prospects. So how do you balance everything out? And will he even be a part of Seattle’s draft board to begin with?

There’s a lot’s of things at stake here that’ll determine whether he’s part of Seattle’s plans. Availability, diagnosis, need. Again, it’s something we discussed at length yesterday. Could it happen? Only another 50 days to find out.

The Auburn Tigers had a wretched 2012 season, going 3-9 (wins vs LA-Monroe, New Mexico State and Alabama A&M) while being outscored 150-21 in their final three defeats. It was ugly.

It’s easy to forget they started the year with some close defeats — 26-19 against Clemson, 12-10 versus LSU. Within that not-too-horrendous start, Corey Lemonier made an impression. He stood out and was universally ranked among the top 2012 draft prospects. As Auburn’s season imploded, so did Lemonier’s stock. It was quite dramatic. Suddenly, nobody was talking about him any more. He had five sacks in his first four games, then 0.5 sacks in the final eight. I watched his team get taken apart by Georgia (38-0) and Alabama (49-0). Unsurprisingly, he was anonymous in both games.

When you’re getting your ass kicked by the best the SEC has to offer, you can’t expect a pure pass rusher to be churning out production.

I’ll admit that I got a little sidetracked. Like everyone else, I lost interest. This guy wasn’t getting it done. Where was the fire and brimstone from earlier in the season? With hindsight I needed to appreciate just how bad things had become at Auburn. They’d lost their heart, their hope. The atmosphere wasn’t ripe for a productive speed rusher. I started to think of him as a middle round prospect, as did many others. I think that was a mistake.

A good performance at the combine has helped to put his name back out there. He ran a 1.57 ten-yard split and a 4.60 forty (unofficially he was originally credited with a 4.53). This despite the fact he gained 10lbs for the combine to get up to 255lbs. None of it was fat or excess, he looked compact and muscular (see the image above). He had 27 reps on the bench press — only three less than Jesse Williams.

Pat Kirwan wrote a review of his time at the combine for CBS and quoted an unnamed defensive coordinator in the piece: “We’re all looking for the Bruce Irvin in this draft.”

Well, Corey Lemonier is the closest thing to Bruce Irvin this year.

Considering 2012 was so bad for Auburn in general, I wanted to go back to 2011 and get a look at Lemonier playing for a competitive outfit. He had 9.5 sacks that year. So I searched out the tape and realised just how effective he can be.

Here’s what I like about him. For an undersized player, it was refreshing to see how many snaps he took as a pure edge rusher. Bruce Irvin was used creatively by West Virginia but made most of his round one money on third downs. Lemonier might be a more natural LEO ‘starter’, in that he often engages blockers at the line of scrimmage and is able to set an edge against the run. He’s stronger than you think in the upper body despite his size — and I guess that’s emphasised by his bench press tally. You can be as explosive as you like as a speed rusher, but to start in a four man front you can’t afford to be hopeless against the run. My biggest concern with Irvin is whether he can cope in a role that asks him to do more than pin his ears back, which kind of limits his ability to be anything more than a specialist.

Chris Clemons isn’t an amazing run stopper, but he kind of holds his own. Irvin struggles to get off even a tight end to make a play against the run. Lemonier plays with great pad level, he can disengage and break on the ball. I love his hand use. The guy can play above his size. There are times when he puts his hands on a blocker and drives them into the backfield. I love to see that from a player who featured at just over 240lbs in college.

He also has that relentless motor you crave from an edge rusher, with a real edge to his play. He’s driven in the way Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo clearly aren’t at LSU. He’s got the speed to beat his man on the edge and I like the way he sets blockers up over time. Aside from a naturally quick burst off the snap, he also flashes a decent repertoire (spin move is evident, rip move is effective too). Quite often he turns a sack into a sack-fumble, something that’ll go down well in Seattle’s front office. He had five forced fumbles in 2011 alone.

One thing that the Irvin and Russell Wilson picks from last year taught me was to keep your options open. Don’t write guys off. I wrote an article twelve months before the 2012 draft saying Bruce Irvin was set to gate crash the top of round one. Had I stuck by that initial assessment, I’d look pretty smart right now. Then he got bogged down in West Virginia’s odd 3-5 scheme and I let it impact my opinion too much.

I feel like history is repeating itself here. Hey, maybe Lemonier doesn’t go in round one? But Auburn’s implosion shouldn’t impact his stock too much. He could go in round one. Technically he’s up their with Bjoern Werner as one of the better edge rushers in this class. Unlike Dion Jordan and Ziggy Ansah, he’s shown a degree of technical quality and readiness. Unlike Damontre Moore and Tank Carradine, he doesn’t look cumbersome getting off the snap. There aren’t any long term injury concerns like we see with Jarvis Jones. And unlike Mingo and Montgomery, he doesn’t take whole games off.

It won’t just be the teams looking for the ‘next Bruce Irvin’ that consider Lemonier. The 3-4 teams could show interest in moving him to outside linebacker. He has to be an option for New Orleans to improve their impotent pass rush. Pittsburgh at #17 need another edge rusher. What about Minnesota at #23? People will ultimately say this is too early, or too reactionary to the combine. They also would’ve said the same about Bruce Irvin a year ago.

“We’re all looking for the Bruce Irvin in this draft.”

Hey, I’m not saying this will definitely happen. Lemonier didn’t run a 4.4 after all. The one team who definitely will be using the LEO pass rusher in 2013 is Jacksonville and they’re not likely to take him with the #2 pick. Seattle already has Irvin. And if the 3-4 teams don’t bite after all, he could still last into the second round. I think that’s his floor though — round two.

I wouldn’t rule him out at #25. Not at all. Pete Carroll will probably take the best pass rusher in round one, whether that’s a tackle or a LEO. I think they’d rather bring in an interior rusher than another LEO, unless they have really serious reservations over Chris Clemons. You’d have to be pretty convinced about a particular prospect to take back-to-back first round LEO’s. What if neither player can act as a full time rusher? You’ve drafted two undersized defensive ends who can’t start. Even so, they might feel that the best value at #25 is to grab another LEO. And that could put Lemonier on the radar if he’s still on the board.

Keep an eye on his stock over the next few weeks. He could be one to watch. The Auburn pro-day takes place on Tuesday.

2011 tape vs Florida, Arkansas and Georgia:

2012 tape vs Clemson & LSU: