A few days ago we looked at options for the Seahawks at #26 in a sort of ‘worst case’ scenario. Here’s a complete two-round mock draft with thoughts on Seattle’s picks.

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)
The Titans have a nondescript defense and two top-12 picks on their offensive line already. So of course they’ll draft Tunsil at #1.

#2 Cleveland — Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis)
With his combination of accuracy, mobility, size and arm strength — Lynch provides the greater upside of the top three QB’s.

#3 San Diego — Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State)
How interested is Philip Rivers and his ever-growing family in moving to LA? Time to start planning for the future, perhaps?

#4 Dallas — Jaylen Ramsey (CB, Florida State)
I can see why some teams are wary of Ramsey but he’s a physical corner with the ability to play safety.

#5 Jacksonville — Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)
The Jaguars need to keep adding pieces to their defense. Jack can play all three linebacker positions. Fantastic athlete.

#6 Baltimore — Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
This would be a no-brainer for the Ravens. A pass-rusher to help kick-start that defense.

#7 San Francisco — Jared Goff (QB, California)
Right now the 49ers don’t have a good option at quarterback. Reports say their relationship with Colin Kaepernick is still strained.

#8 Miamia — DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)
D-line, linebacker and cornerback. Three need positions and the Dolphins will have options at all three in this spot.

#9 Tampa Bay — Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)
Cornerback is a huge need for the Buccs and Apple is a fantastic prospect destined for big things.

#10 New York Giants — Darron Lee (LB, Ohio State)
The Giants tend to do things differently in this range and were right to draft Odell Beckham Jr and Ereck Flowers. Here’s another underrated player for them in Lee.

#11 Chicago — Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)
Any pick on the defense makes sense. Alexander slots into the line-up immediately. Big character.

#12 New Orleans — Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky)
There isn’t another player like Spence in the draft and that should ensure he gets picked up early.

#13 Philadelphia — Taylor Decker (T, Ohio State)
Underrated tackle. Very athletic, strong and gritty. He can slot straight in across from Lane Johnson.

#14 Oakland — Robert Nkemdiche (DE, Ole Miss)
Line him up inside and out. The Raiders might be willing to take a chance on his character to add another dynamic defender.

#15 Los Angeles — Jaylon Smith (LB, Notre Dame)
The Rams waited it out for Todd Gurley and were rewarded. Will they do the same with the ultra-talented Smith?

#16 Detroit — Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)
They could add a defensive lineman but tackle is a need. Stanley can be overly passive but he has the physical profile to be a good pass-protector.

#17 Atlanta — Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)
Fantastic get-off, quick-twitch interior lineman who dominated the Senior Bowl practises. Just the type of player Atlanta’s defense lacks.

#18 Indianapolis — Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)
They’ve shied away from obvious needs in recent years to make surprise picks. Elliott is the real deal.

#19 Buffalo — A’shawn Robinson (DT, Alabama)
He plays within himself and should be better — but he has incredible upside and fits as a 3-4 DE.

#20 New York Jets — Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana)
A good combine to follow up a solid Senior Bowl could have teams moving quickly to snap up Spriggs’ athleticism and size.

#21 Washington — Jarran Reed (DT, Alabama)
Scot McCloughan is trying to create a tough, physically imposing football team with plus athleticism. Reed would provide a real edge to their D-line.

#22 Houston — Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
He could be the big winner at the combine, forcing his way into the top-tier of players. Explosive, physical playmaker.

#23 Minnesota — Laquon Treadwell (WR, Ole Miss)
The Vikings need a consistent target for Teddy Bridgewater. Treadwell can provide that. Value pick.

#24 Cincinnati — Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
The Bengals pair Billings with Geno Atkins up front to provide a formidable duo at defensive tackle.

#25 Pittsburgh — Kyler Fackrell (LB, Utah State)
We know the Steelers love to draft linebackers in round one. They need a pass rusher who gets home. That’s Fackrell.

#26 Seattle — Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State)
Tough, physical and excels in the run game. Conklin could move inside to left guard or start at right tackle.

#27 Kansas City — Vernon Hargreaves (CB, Florida)
The Chiefs might need to replace Sean Smith. This is the range I think Hargreaves falls.

#28 Green Bay — Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech)
Butler combines length, strength, size and mobility. He lacks Muhammad Wilkerson’s college production but he’s similar physically.

#29 Arizona — Nick Martin (C, Notre Dame)
He just gets the job done. He’ll come into the league and start immediately. He’ll be as steady as his brother in Dallas.

#30 Carolina — Darian Thompson (S, Boise State)
He misses the odd tackle but Thompson’s range, ability to play in the box and playmaking skills are enticing.

#31 Denver — Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
Maybe age will be an issue? I’m a huge Coleman fan. The Broncos were willing to draft 25-year-old rookie Sly Williams in round one.

Round two

#32 Cleveland — Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)
A dynamic weapon to compliment Josh Gordon and Gary Barnidge.

#33 Tennessee — Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia)
Athletic, rangy outside linebacker. Can improve as a pass-rusher.

#34 Dallas — Derrick Henry (RB, Alabama)
Doesn’t it seem inevitable? He’s a good fit for their scheme.

#35 San Diego — Keanu Neal (S, Florida)
Favoured in league circles and the Chargers need to replace Eric Weddle.

#36 Baltimore — Tyler Boyd (WR, Pittsburgh)
Underrated, prolific playmaker. The heart and soul of Pitt’s offense for two years.

#37 San Francisco — Cody Whitehair (T, Kansas State)
A no-nonsense lineman who will switch to guard or center in the NFL.

#38 Miami — Kendall Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)
Having addressed the D-line in round one, Miami go for a talented corner here.

#39 Jacksonville — Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson)
Powerful DE who can play inside and out and compliment Dante Fowler.

#40 New York Giants — Chris Jones (DT, Mississippi State)
A former 5-star recruit with major athletic potential.

#41 Chicago — Reggie Ragland (LB, Alabama)
Ideally suited to play in the 3-4, Ragland would make plays for Vic Fangio.

#42 Tampa Bay — Adolphus Washington (DT, Ohio State)
Dynamic interior rusher. Washington is streaky and needs to be more consistent.

#43 Los Angeles — Michael Thomas (WR, Ohio State)
A big target with surprising agility. He could go much earlier.

#44 Oakland — Su’a Cravens (S, USC)
They need to rebuild their secondary. Cravens is a versatile defender.

#45 Los Angeles — Kevin Dodd (DE, Clemson)
They love to collect pass-rushers and might need to replace Chris Long.

#46 Detroit — Kenny Clark (DT, UCLA)
The Lions add another piece to their new-look defensive front.

#47 New Orleans — Austin Johnson (DT, Penn State)
The Saints need an athletic nose tackle. Johnson has a fantastic motor.

#48 Indianapolis — Jonathan Bullard (DT, Florida)
His effort is superb but is he special enough to go earlier?

#49 Buffalo — Jordan Jenkins (OLB, Georgia)
They need another edge rusher with experience in this type of scheme.

#50 Atlanta — Deion Jones (LB, LSU)
Dan Quinn copies the Seahawks and goes for elite speed and playmaking at LB.

#51 New York Jets — Hunter Henry (TE, Arkansas)
Arguably the best all-round TE in the class. The Jets keep adding weapons.

#52 Houston — Christian Hackenburg (QB, Penn State)
Bill O’Brien takes a chance on his former protégé.

#53 Washington — Ryan Kelly (C, Alabama)
The quest to get tougher in the trenches continues.

#54 Minnesota — Germain Ifedi (T, Mississippi State)
Underrated, powerful tackle in excellent shape. Could play left guard too.

#55 Cincinnati — William Jackson (CB, Houston)
This guy can play. Great size/speed/length. Could rise much higher.

#56 Seattle — Alex Collins (RB, Arkansas)
Seeks contact, former four-star athlete, keeps moving after contact.

#57 Green Bay — Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State)
Give him a bit of time and he could be superb.

#58 Pittsburgh — Darius Latham (DT, Indiana)
A 6-5, 300lbs basketball player for the Steelers defensive front.

#59 Kansas City — Joshua Perry (LB, Ohio State)
Every time you watch Ohio State, Perry shines. Incredibly tough. Leader.

#60 New England — Josh Doctson (WR, TCU)
Tall and wiry but makes plays. The Pats need to upgrade Brandon LeFell.

#61 Arizona — Kamalei Correa (DE, Boise State)
Athletic edge rusher ideally suited to OLB in the 3-4.

#62 Denver — Connor Cook (QB, Michigan State)
The Broncos take a punt on Cook to compete for the gig in Denver.

#63 Carolina — Shilique Calhoun (DE, Michigan State)
A frustrating player to watch at times — but with bags of upside.

Jack Conklin to the Seahawks
Whether it’s James Carpenter, Justin Britt or Terry Poole — the Seahawks are attracted to using guards with tackle experience. They seem to like size at left guard (Conklin is listed at 6-6 and 325lbs) and they emphasise run blocking. Conklin ticks every box. They might try him at right tackle first (like Carpenter and Britt) but this could be their best opportunity to get some size and nastiness back into the interior O-line.

A running back in round two?
Hear me out. The value on the D-line at #56 in this projection wasn’t any better than it’s likely to be in the late third. There will be options in the next round. Pete Carroll at USC liked to collect talented running backs and use them all. He hasn’t needed to do that in Seattle due to the brilliance of Marshawn Lynch. Thomas Rawls will be the #1 in 2015 all being well but adding another to the group would be wise — especially someone with the physicality they’ve lost in Lynch. Yes Christine Michael will be back — but let’s not forget he was essentially dumped by three teams in 2015 before a late season revival.

There’s likely to be a run in round three on running backs where the likes of Alex Collins, Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, Paul Perkins and Kenneth Dixon come off the board. By taking one at #56 they can secure the guy they want. The projection here says it’s Collins (I was tempted to stick with UCLA’s Perkins). He seeks contact and doesn’t go out of bounds, keeps moving after contact, has the ability to find a gap and explode for big gains and has some pass-protection upside (search online to see him blow up A’Shawn Robinson).

Collins is no slouch either — he’s a former four-star recruit in High School and had interest from schools like Florida.

Collins isn’t Marshawn Lynch (he does a good impression at 0:53 in the video above) but his physical style would be a nice compliment to Thomas Rawls. He can carry the load if needed and you’ve secured him for four years on a cheap contract.

Senquez Golson, the #56 pick in 2015, has a contract worth $1m APY. His rookie cap hit was $727,462. That’s value at a position where you get an immediate return.

The Seahawks put a ton of emphasis on their running game. Look at their investment at the position so far — trading for LenDale White, Leon Washington and Marshawn Lynch, drafting Robert Turbin, Christine Michael and Spencer Ware. They’ve always been conscious of the position.

Some people will cringe at this — but if you consider waiting until the late third and your favourite 2-3 backs are gone and you’re left hoping Rawls stays healthy and Michael stays consistent — you might not hate this quite as much. They could possibly trade down into the early third round before making a pick like this.

In this projection I’d have the Seahawks taking Graham Glasgow and either Ronald Blair III or Willie Henry in round three. Glasgow to compete at either guard or center and Blair III/Henry to add some help to the interior D-line. There’d be plenty of alternatives on the D-line too.

The one pressing concern in this scenario could be linebacker. Assuming they lose Bruce Irvin, they’d probably like to at least add some further competition to Kevin Pierre-Louis, Brock Coyle and Mike Morgan. They might be able to do that with an athletic safety convert or take a chance on Travis Feeney. This draft is not flush with athletic outside linebackers. The options are very limited once Jaylon Smith, Darron Lee, Myles Jack and Deion Jones are off the board. Keep that in mind for round one if the Seahawks are able to bolster the O-line and D-line in free agency.

If the Seahawks want to be tougher in the trenches and more physical — Conklin, Collins, Glasgow and Blair III/Henry would improve that situation. By retaining Brandon Mebane and Athyba Rubin and possibly adding another veteran defensive and offensive lineman — the Seahawks might be able to address their biggest off-season priorities.

Why Kawann Short fell and why Sheldon Rankins won’t

Josh Norris’ latest mock draft has Sheldon Rankins paired with the Seahawks at #26:

“Don’t get me started on Rankins. He is a top 10 talent in this draft. He is a true upfield disruptor who is smooth, quick and versatile with his hands to win the balance advantage. I’ll go as far to say that Rankins could be this year’s Kawann Short. The Seahawks love disruption, and Rankins would offer it.”

In January 2013 I wrote a piece suggesting the Seahawks should draft Kawann Short with their first round pick (later traded for Percy Harvin):

“He generally does a great job getting off blocks using nice hands and flashing great athleticism for his size. He’ll shoot a gap effectively and gets a nice quick burst off the snap. He’s shown decent ability on stunts to skip wide and attack from a different angle. You see the swim, club and spin moves — so he’ll be creative and keep an offensive lineman guessing. When he gets low and drives into his blocker he can flash a solid bull rush. Sometimes he gets too high and loses leverage but this is coachable.”

Short lived in the backfield at Purdue and there isn’t a player with his pass-rushing technique in this draft class. He fell into round two (pick #44) and has since developed into one of the top defensive tackles in the league.

Surely if a player of that quality can drop all the way to #44 — Rankins could suffer a similar fate?

Doubtful.

#1 — Age
Short was a 24-year-old rookie. He turned 27 a few days ago. These are the peak years of his career — and he’s still on his rookie contract. Sly Williams (in Short’s draft class) also fell to the late first round (he was a 25-year-old rookie). Sharrif Floyd was a weaker pass-rusher than both in college — but he was 21 in his rookie year.

Sheldon Rankins is 21. He turns 22 on April 2nd. Age is a factor.

#2 — Motor
There were always concerns about Short’s effort at Purdue. A 2012 game against Ohio State still sticks in the memory to this day. As good as he is/was — he mailed it in against the Buckeyes. Teams often focus on the tape vs your best three opponents. That was a bad showing.

Here’s what I noted in the article endorsing him for the Seahawks in round one:

Unlike Sheldon Richardson and Sharrif Floyd, the motor seems to stop running when the play moves away from his part of the field. Richardson turns into a linebacker when the play kicks out wide, tracking the ball carrier and often being the one to make the decisive tackle. Short, more often than not, shuts down and doesn’t make the effort.

Nobody is going to doubt Sheldon Rankins’ motor. After watching three Louisville games since the Senior Bowl — Rankins just keeps on going. He hustles to the ball-carrier, keeps his feet moving and doesn’t take plays off. Teams are really going to the like the effort they see on tape. It’s similar to Austin Johnson at Penn State who will also likely go early.

Rankins proved he’s athletic when he turned up in Mobile and lit up the competition in practise. Couple that with a relentless motor and it’s a far cry from Short’s inconsistent effort.

#3 — Conditioning
Short always looked big at Purdue — like he was carrying extra weight. This was a noted concern going into the draft. When Short attended the Senior Bowl in 2013 he looked a lot leaner — having shed around 10-15lbs. It would’ve concerned teams, however, that they were going to need to monitor this situation during his career.

Rankins is a compact, cannonball of a defensive lineman. For some schemes he’ll be undersized at 6-1 and 304lbs and it’s hard to imagine him fitting in a 3-4 defense. For the 4-3 teams he’s the ideal size for a three-technique.

Pete Carroll is a Bill Walsh protégé. Walsh’s ideology for each football position was published by the Pro Sports Xchange a few years ago. Here’s what he wanted in a defensive tackle:

Ideal size: 6-2, 290

Must have the girth, strength, ballast to hold off the guard, or to step into a tackles’ block without being knocked off the line of scrimmage.

Quick, strong hands to grab and pull are critical. This is common with the great tackles. The hands, the arms, the upper body strength and then the quick feet to take advantage of a moving man, just getting him off balance.

You are looking for somebody who can move down the line of scrimmage and make a tackle, pursuing a ball-carrier. That would be lateral quickness in a short area, being able to get underway and move over and through people. If you get knocked off the line, or get knocked sideways or knocked off balance, you cannot play this position. You must be able to work your way through people, so that kind of strength is a must.

The best defensive tackles move the offensive guard back into the quarterback. They won’t have nearly as many sacks as others, but if they can move the guard back into the quarterback, then the quarterback has to avoid his own lineman as if he were a pass rusher before he throws the ball. So this is a key ability.

Not only is Rankins close to the size ideal, he also ticks a lot of boxes here. He moves down the LOS easily, working his way through traffic. He’s powerful at the point of attack with the ability to shoot gaps. His compact frame provides the “ballast” and “girth” Walsh refers to.

It’s also worth noting the bit about, “they won’t have nearly as many sacks as others.” For all the talk of needing more pass rush in the interior — Seattle’s preference for stoutness up front is perhaps indicative of Walsh’s influence on Carroll. The one key difference is Carroll’s willingness to sign bigger defensive tackles to achieve the same goal (Athbya Rubin is surely the only 330lbs three-technique in the NFL).

For teams with a similar mentality (eg — Atlanta with Dan Quinn) — Rankins will be just as ideal. The thought of him slipping beyond the Falcons and through to #26 feels like wishful thinking. As good as Kawann Short is — there just aren’t the same kind of question marks with Sheldon Rankins.

One final note. This interaction on Twitter is quite interesting…

Interesting. Hearing similar things. Reflection on work ethic & greater technique needed to be successful vs NFL OL. https://t.co/4s885vevWN

— Rob Rang (@RobRang) February 12, 2016

This is a very deep defensive line class with plenty of big name, star power. It’s also a group filled with compromises.

The more secure, polished defensive linemen will go early. Rankins falls into that category.

If you want an alternative that might be available to Seattle — keep an eye on Ohio State’s Adolphus Washington. He flashed during the Senior Bowl practises with some impressive speed, get-off and hand-use. He was streaky in college but had enough splash plays to be interesting. He might be the best interior rusher in this class. He lacks Rankins’ powerful base and size in the lower body. He is extremely quick.

He also has 34 inch arms (impressive length) and good size with minimal bad weight (6-3, 297lbs).

This is what he’s capable of…

Works to get off the block with great hands, power and speed. Finishes with a sack. He’s too strong and quick for Brian Allen (Jack’s brother):

Adolphus Washington sack pic.twitter.com/059JndikWs

— Matheus Milanez (@biffmila) February 8, 2016

Good use of length to keep Jack Allen away from his frame, excellent counter move after Allen recovers to spin into the quarterback. Would’ve been a splash play in a game:

Draws a double team, reads the play to notice the dump-off before intercepting the pass for a pick-six:

This is how to shoot a gap in the run game:

Fast forward the video below to 11:40 for two snaps of Adolphus Washington vs Joshua Garnett. On the first play Washington tries to bull-rush Garnett who just about contains him (he’s pushed back into the pocket). On the next play Washington wins with a beautiful spin move. Fast forward to 16:15 to watch Washington have Joe Dahl’s lunch money. Dahl does a much better job on the second 1v1.

Every now and again it’s worth reviewing Seattle’s draft trends in the Pete Carroll era. You only have to look at their first and second round history to work out the kind of prospect they like to take early:

2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate
2011: James Carpenter
2012: Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner
2013: Percy Harvin (trade), Christine Michael
2014: Paul Richardson, Justin Britt
2015: Jimmy Graham (trade), Frank Clark

With the exception of the offensive linemen, every player listed above is a fantastic athlete. Speed, explosive talent.

They also produced on the field in college:

2010 — Earl Thomas had eight interceptions in his final season at Texas
2010 — Golden Tate won the Biletnikoff
2011 — James Carpenter was arguably the best run blocking tackle in college
2012 — Bruce Irvin had 22.5 sacks in two seasons at West Virginia
2012 — Bobby Wagner had four sacks as a senior and 478 (!!!) career tackles
2014 — Paul Richardson had 1343 and 10 touchdowns in his final year at Colorado
2015 — Frank Clark’s tape was actually really good with many splash plays

You could also include last years third round pick Tyler Lockett. He had 2777 yards and 22 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Kansas State.

It doesn’t guarantee anything but it’d be silly to ignore this information. Six drafts is quite a body of evidence.

Here are the takeaways I can see:

— They’ve never taken a none-elite athlete on defense in the first or second round

— They don’t seem to be quite as concerned about athleticism on the offensive line and arguably prefer size ideals, physical toughness and the mentality to mesh with Tom Cable’s way of doing things

— They generally don’t draft underachievers and the two players who did fall short of expectations in college (Christine Michael & Frank Clark) were two of the biggest SPARQ freaks to ever grace the combine

— Carroll and Schneider’s Seahawks have picked between #25-32 in four of their six drafts — and on three occasions traded the pick (so if they don’t like the value available, they’re going to do something about it)

How do we use this information to project what they might do?

We know they want to produce a consistently performing offensive line
Pete Carroll stated this was the key priority in his end-of-season press conference. The draft history suggests if they want to take an O-liner at #26 it doesn’t necessarily have to be a freak of nature. They’ve taken productive, gritty, physical offensive linemen that excel in the run game. Players that fit Tom Cable’s preferred style and not necessarily raw, athletic players with a high ceiling. The two offensive linemen they drafted earliest in 2014 and 2015 (Justin Britt, Terry Poole) were not big-time athletes. That said, they recently started to look for upside (Sweezy, Sokoli, Gilliam) albeit in the later rounds. They don’t appear to be handcuffed to a certain level of athleticism though, rather than a mental/physical ‘type’.

We know they’d like to add a pass rusher
What was the big difference between 2015 and the two previous seasons? They lacked the production of Clinton McDonald (2013) and Jordan Hill (2014). Finding someone who can get 5-8 sacks in a rotation might be the priority. They could also look to add another edge rusher if Bruce Irvin departs in free agency.

What kind of defensive prospects are we talking about?
If they’re going to take an interior or edge rusher early they need to be explosive and athletic. Sheldon Rankins is explosive and that’s probably why, according to Tony Pauline, the Seahawks gave him a first round grade. An edge rusher is going to need to produce a fantastic ten-yard split or excel in the vertical/broad/three-cone at the combine. The previous six drafts tell us speed, explosion and production is the key here. Anything else would be a significant detachment from what they’ve done so far.

Who are some of the players to keep an eye on?
We’ll know more after the combine of course. I’ve compiled a new mock draft (to be published tomorrow) with many attractive options off the board before the 20th pick. In the past, that has provoked the Seahawks to trade.

If a high ceiling isn’t entirely necessary on the O-line, the likes of Shon Coleman, Cody Whitehair, Nick Martin and Ryan Kelly aren’t going to stand out in Indianapolis but could be options. Coleman would address the tackle or left guard position. Whitehair, Martin and Kelly play center. All have the potential to solidify one key position and help provide some consistency in the trenches.

If they’re intent on shifting towards major upside, I suppose we have to bring up the name of Texas Tech left tackle Le’Raven Clark.

Watching his tape is like watching your Grandpa trying to work an iPad. He’s technically deficient in pretty much every way imaginable. And yet his athletic profile is elite — +36 inch arms, 6-5, 312lbs. He’s a freak.

Lance Zierlein offers this quote from an anonymous NFC personnel director:

“He’s going to end up being big time in our league. He’s got elite foot quickness, he’s long and he’s smart. He’ll keep getting better once he gets to a pro offense and away from that stuff Texas Tech does and he’ll become one of the top five tackles in our league.”

Zierlein also notes, “Left tackles with his potential in pass protection carry first round value.” As bad as Clark is technically, Tom Cable has stated he believes every college lineman enters the league needing to start from scratch. If the Seahawks want to shoot for the stars at left/right tackle — Clark might be a scary, exciting, concerning, potentially genius decision.

If consistency and not pure upside is the order of the day — adding a player with decent physical skills who simply gets the job done might be preferable. The likes of Coleman, Whitehair, Martin and Kelly are a picture of consistency and physicality.

On defense we have to assume the likes of Noah Spence and Sheldon Rankins will not reach the #26 pick. Both shone at the Senior Bowl. Mississippi State’s Chris Jones could be a wild card. He was once the #2 recruit in the nation. He has fantastic length and size (6-6, 308lbs) and generally does a good job controlling his gap, working vs the run and occasionally providing a dynamic pass rush.

Had Jones delivered on his massive potential in college he’d probably be a top-15 pick. The fact that he didn’t is why he could be available in rounds 2-3. The trends tell us the Seahawks will only seriously consider a perceived underachiever early if he’s a SPARQ freak. We’ll need to see what Jones does at the combine.

Seattle’s preference to emphasise gap discipline and stoutness vs the run in base perhaps makes it unlikely they’ll use their first pick on a defensive tackle unless it’s someone of Rankins’ quality. If they do want to find a player who can contribute in the same way as Clinton McDonald, they might find better value waiting until rounds 2-4. There’s abnormal depth in this class on the D-line and the highest pick they’ve used on a DT so far is the third rounder spent on Jordan Hill in 2013. If they’re bringing in a defensive impact player who doesn’t start in base — how likely are they to spend a first round pick? Some of the options in rounds 2-4 are Adolphus Washington, Jihad Ward, Willie Henry, Ronald Blair III and Darius Latham.

One player who could come into focus is LSU’s Deion Jones. He’s a possible outside linebacker replacement for Bruce Irvin. He’s not a pass rusher — but he needs to be mentioned here. Jones has an opportunity to really excel at the combine. He’s an outstanding athlete — and that’s what the Seahawks love at linebacker (see: Irvin, Wagner, Pierre-Louis).

He could easily run in the 4.4’s at 6-1 and 219lbs. He doesn’t get overmatched at that size and plays with great discipline in the run game. His ability to be a key special teamer could also have some value.

Did he produce at LSU in 2015? Five sacks at linebacker, one interception (returned for a touchdown) and 99 total tackles.

Jones isn’t a defensive or offensive lineman but he’s the type of player the Seahawks have taken early in recent years. They’ll also need to replace Irvin in all likelihood. Mike Florio suggested today he’ll get a contract offer in free agency worth $10m APY. Keep that in mind, even if it’s not a top priority. Like Chris Jones and Le’Raven Clark, Deion Jones could come into play if they trade down.

This is a difficult class to find SPARQy edge rushers in range at #26. Clemson duo Kevin Dodd and Shaq Lawson might not be athletic enough for the Seahawks. Leonard Floyd might be but he’s been a disappointing edge rusher for two years and hasn’t produced.

Cliff Avril ran a 1.50 ten yard split at his combine. Bruce Irvin managed a 1.55. Frank Clark had a 1.58. Anything in the 1.5’s is elite. That’s the type of edge speed the Seahawks are attracted to and it’s what we need to look for at the combine.

Utah State’s Kyler Fackrell is going to be a really interesting player to follow in Indianapolis and he’s possibly Seattle’s best shot if you want an outside rusher to be drafted in round one.

He looks like a good athlete. How good though? Can he top Clay Matthews’ 4.67 forty yard dash and 35.5 inch vertical? At USC’s pro-day Matthews ran a 1.49 ten-yard split and a 4.59 forty on a fast track. Fackrell needs to crack the 1.5’s in the split.

On tape he’s superb. A true splash-play specialist constantly impacting plays. PFF had this to say about his 2015 season:

At +34.4 he is our highest graded 3-4 OLB, with the highest grade as a pass rusher, against the run, and sixth-highest in coverage just for good measure.

The Seahawks use 3-4 personnel in a 4-3 so don’t be put off by his tag as a 3-4 OLB. He ticks the production box for sure. The big question is whether he’s athletic enough for the Seahawks to be considered early. Clay Matthews lasted until the #26 pick despite proving he was very athletic. Perhaps the same happens to Fackrell?

Will they trade down?
Carroll and Schneider have traded 75% of their picks when selecting between #25-32. If the value isn’t there, they’ll probably move down again (with limited cap space they’re unlikely to pull another Harvin or Graham trade).

I like to compare my own mock drafts to those in the draft media to see if I’m ruling out possible options for the Seahawks. I was equally pleased and alarmed to see how similar tomorrow’s mock draft was to Daniel Jeremiah’s. Noah Spence was available to the Seahawks (this was a pre-Senior Bowl mock by Jeremiah) but apart from that only Andrew Billings, Cody Whitehair and Kyler Fackrell were available that I had off the board at #26.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t some good options available in round one in both projections. It does suggest, however, that the ‘genuine’ first round talent in this class might run dry quickly. And if that happens — they’ve shown a consistent willingness to trade and hunt for better value.

They might think #26 is too early for a Chris Jones, Deion Jones, Le’Raven Clark (the athletic trio) or Cody Whitehair, Nick Martin, Ryan Kelly, Shon Coleman (the physical & consistent quartet). Can they move down into the 30’s?

Their desire to move down will be influenced by their ability to fill certain needs. In 2011 when they owned the #25 pick — the three top offensive tackles were off the board by #22. They selected James Carpenter without moving down, possibly because they didn’t want to miss out altogether.

Note the following tweet:

This offensive tackle class just drops straight off the map after the first 5-6 guys. Lot of developmental guys that need serious work.

— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) February 10, 2016

If they see replacing Russell Okung as an absolute priority — and with Tunsil, Decker, Stanley and Conklin likely to be off the board by #26 — how much of a risk do they want to take?

Alternatively if they know they can get their guys later on they’ve shown they’re willing to manipulate the draft in their favour. That’s exactly what they did when trading down and drafting Paul Richardson in 2014.

So what happens?

The information in this piece and study of the draft class suggests the Seahawks are possibly going to do one of four things:

1. Pick their favourite offensive lineman and just feel good about addressing the self-confessed top priority, even if the player isn’t a top athlete

2. Make a somewhat surprising high-upside pick on the O-line such as Le’Raven Clark that leaves people gasping

3. Take an elite athlete who plays defense

4. Trade down

Austin Johnson’s (DT, Penn State) tape vs Ohio State is frustrating. Having watched both Johnson and Michigan’s Willie Henry struggle against this unit, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Buckeye’s had a loaded roster across the board and it showed. When I watched Johnson against Indiana and Maryland there was much more to like.

He’s 6-4 and 323lbs so he’s a big dude. We’re not talking about a natural three-technique who comes in for the nascar package and rushes the QB. Anyone hoping Johnson alone is the answer to Seattle’s pass-rush issues is probably going to be disappointed.

That’s the case, however, for pretty much every defensive lineman in this class. Assuming a prospect like Sheldon Rankins isn’t available, you’re going to compromise one way or another. It’s about identifying the player or players you think you can develop from a deep group at the position.

They might end going for the best athlete (possibly Mississippi State’s Chris Jones) and trying to tap into his upside. They also generally haven’t gone after underachievers — and that’s really what Jones is. A former #2 overall and 5-star recruit, Jones never lived up to that billing. So while the potential is there — consider the priority Seattle has placed on production and not just extreme athleticism:

2010 — Earl Thomas had eight interceptions in his final season at Texas
2010 — Golden Tate won the Biletnikoff
2011 — James Carpenter was arguably the best run blocking tackle in college
2011 — John Moffitt helped Montee Ball set records at Wisconsin
2012 — Bruce Irvin had 22.5 sacks in two seasons at West Virginia
2012 — Bobby Wagner had four sacks as a senior and 478 (!!!) career tackles
2014 — Paul Richardson had 1343 and 10 touchdowns in his final year at Colorado
2015 — Frank Clark’s tape is actually really good with many splash plays
2015 — Tyler Lockett had 2777 yards and 22 touchdowns in his final two seasons

The one player that didn’t have major production and went very early? Christine Michael in 2013 — one of the greatest athletes to ever test at the combine, taken in a year where they hardly had any key needs. That aside, the Seahawks seem to place a certain emphasis on production.

Jones had 2.5 sacks in 2015 and three in 2014. He’s a self-confessed underachiever with a physical skill set to be incredible. In a draft of compromises on the defensive line — you could do a lot worse. Draft history suggests they’re more likely to seek out an overachiever who isn’t a slouch.

That’s where Johnson possibly comes in.

The issue might be size. It’s not usual for a team to draft a 323lbs defensive lineman to provide a spark for the pass rush. The Seahawks have also opted against drafting such size for their D-line. The early picks have gone on more quick-twitch, dynamic athletes (Irvin, Hill, Clark). It’s not like you’re going to roll a 6-4, 323lbs monster on the field for third and long.

To that extent Jones’ length (6-6), athleticism and ability to play at around 295lbs (Derek Wolfe size) might be preferable. And I do like what I’ve seen from Jones so far — it’d be easy to imagine he’s a candidate for the Seahawks.

Back to Johnson — here’s a video to show he’s not just a cumbersome nose tackle:

There is some evidence of burst off the LOS and quickness too. He’s a former basketball player in High School and you see that athleticism on tape. There’s minimal bad weight on that frame. His hustle is incredible — he’ll keep fighting until the whistle. He keeps trying to find ways to work to the ball carrier and won’t give up like some of the DT’s in this class.

There’s something to be said for a really active defensive tackle who you have to focus on for the whole play. A guy who is constantly moving his feet and fighting to get into the backfield. His tackle numbers are incredible for a DT — and it’s down to his relentless effort. So while he might not always win with speed to knife straight into the backfield or dominate with a pretty good bull-rush — his motor and determination make him a very interesting player. His closing speed and pursuit is also surprisingly good.

He doesn’t have ideal length (32 and 5/8 inch arms) and that could be an issue. Smaller defensive tackles in this class are longer (Adolphus Washington is only 6-3 and 297lbs but has 34 inch arms). You also wonder what his position is in Seattle. As intriguing and fun as he is to watch — is he upgrading the pass rush? Or is he a one-technique or a Rubin replacement who can do you a good, disciplined, hearty job but isn’t creating relentless pressure?

And how much more likely are they to perhaps consider a Chris Jones, Adolphus Washington or Jihad Ward with the offer of a little more explosion and superior length?

In fact if people are looking for the next possible Malik Jackson or the next Derek Wolfe — look no further than Washington and Ward.

Jackson is smaller than Washington (284lbs vs 297lbs) but they both have 34 inch arms and the ability to flash in the pass rush. Pete Carroll worked with Jackson at USC before he transferred to Tennessee in 2010 so he’ll know what to look for if he wants a similar player. Ward is mirroring Wolfe’s pre-draft process to a tee. Wolfe was considered a marginal later round pick without an obvious position but his stock quickly increased during the post-season and he went in round two. Ward is doing exactly the same thing and could go from projected fifth rounder to second rounder. They’re almost identical in size — Wolfe is 6-5 and 295lbs, Ward 6-5 and 296lbs. Ward also has an interesting backstory — he’s had to battle adversity in his life.

If you’re hoping for a cheap way to try and emulate Denver’s depth on the D-line — it might be time to hope Washington falls due to character flags and Ward stick with a day three grade. That’d be one way to upgrade things while affording the opportunity to make early picks on the O-line and at linebacker or running back. I suspect Austin Johnson, meanwhile, is going to go in round two or three.