Written by Kip Earlywine

Biases.  We all have them.  I’ve been a big Washington Huskies fan for over twenty years.  Naturally, that is going to impact how I view Husky players that transition to the NFL, though it may not always the way you’d expect.  Watching four years of Jake Locker made me painfully aware of his shortcomings (I listed 17 bullet points in his weaknesses section) and compared him to Vince Young.  Previously, I had compared him to Jake Plummer.  Not exactly glowing comparisons.  I didn’t rule out 1st round potential for Locker, but I’d like to think that my evaluation was a sober one.  Which I think says a lot given that Jake Locker’s legacy at Montlake was legendary.

I was also a skeptic of linebacker Mason Foster, and rolled my eyes when I heard the common assertion that he was the Huskies top senior (over Locker).  I wasn’t the biggest fan of running back Louis Rankin.  I’ve also been a skeptic this year of defensive tackle Alemeda Ta’amu and offensive tackle Senio Kelemete.  Ta’amu made very few splash plays and was a part of the worst defense in school history (possibly the worst run defense in school history as well).  Senio Kelemente didn’t stand out among his peers on what was one of the worst offensive lines in the conference.  I wish them the best as Husky alums, but I don’t want them anywhere near my Seattle Seahawks, unless it’s because they are starting for the other team.

Really, the only Huskies player I can think of that I liked more than most coming out of school in recent times was Donald Butler, who’s become a solid and improving inside linebacker for the San Diego Chargers.  Not bad value for a 3rd round pick.  To be honest, it’s bugged me for a long time that Mason Foster was a draft darling and Donald Butler wasn’t.  Foster made some amazing plays, but he wasn’t the game in, game out “heart of the defense” kind of player that Butler was.

Well today, I’m going to increase that list of one Husky player to two, because Chris Polk has impressed me over the last 3 years more than almost any other Husky player in all my years of watching UW football.  Nothing wins me over faster than a player who exceeds my expectations or provides consistent quality play, and Polk did both of those things week in and week out for almost his entire college career.  Polk might just be the most under-rated running back of this draft class, as you’d have to watch him every week and see his impact on the flow of the offense to truly understand his value.

Before I get started breaking Polk down, it needs to be pointed out that of all the top running backs in this draft, Polk played behind by far the worst offensive line.  Too many times, Polk met defenders in the backfield from poor blocking, but used his unique tackle breaking skill set and excellent instincts to turn negative plays into positive ones.  That Chris Polk is even in the discussion with guys like Lamar Miller or Doug Martin who played behind excellent lines says a lot about Polk’s abilities.  Despite having a weak line, Polk came just 57 yards shy of becoming Washington’s all time leading rusher, and the one guy who beat him (who had a very solid NFL career) did so behind a much better line back when the Huskies were fringe national title contenders.

With excellent balance, a high-knee running style, and the rare dual ability to either power through tackles or slip through them, Polk was the perfect back for Washington’s troubled running game.  A lot of Huskies fans think that Polk’s departure will not matter much as his successor Bishop Sankey has talent (he’s a Leon Washington clone), but I’ll believe it when I see it.  Polk was the secret MVP of the Steve Sarkisian era.  Just twice out of thirteen games last year did a defense hold Polk under 4 yards a carry.  Just three times out of thirteen games did a defense hold Polk under 100 rushing yards.  Polk may not rip off big touchdown runs with regularity, but his ability to consistently produce positive plays adds up in a hurry.  He was the very heartbeat of Sarkisian’s version of the West Coast offense, which is designed to have the pass set up the run.  That’s not easy to do when your offensive line gets beat all the time, but Chris Polk made it work anyway.

As if that rushing production wasn’t impressive enough, Polk chipped in with 332 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, including a 70 yarder on a go route.  Polk can run vertical routes as well or better than most receivers do, which I probably don’t have to tell you is exceedingly rare.  Over the last decade you can count the number of franchise running backs with that ability on one hand.  Polk has outstanding concentration and presence of mind in addition to having terrific hands.  In my opinion, Polk is the best receiver at running back since Reggie Bush, although Bush was a very different type of receiving threat.  Polk is a unique weapon as a receiver and Steve Sarkisian only just began to tap into that during Polk’s final season.

Polk has deceptively solid speed.  He has no shortage of touchdowns over 40 yards the last several seasons.  I expect them to become less common at the NFL, but Polk’s field speed is pretty much identical to Doug Baldwin’s, and we’ve seen Baldwin outrun defenses to the end zone last year.  Polk ran an unofficial 4.46 forty followed by an unofficial 4.57 at the combine, which somehow became an official 4.57 time.  He posted an unofficial 4.45 at his pro day (4.49 official).  The site that I use to track combine numbers lists Polk’s forty time at 4.45.  In order to remain consistent (I used the same table for everyone else), I included their (fast) time in concert with Polk’s (slow) official combine time.  I think the truth is somewhere in between.  When healthy and in shape, Chris Polk is probably a 4.50 forty kind of guy, which just happens to be NFL average among wide receivers.  In the end, I didn’t list Polk’s speed as either a strength or a weakness.  It’s neither.  It’s neither a weapon nor a hindrance.

Polk is a natural back who tends to make the most of his chances.  He knows when to dive for two yards when trying something more heroic would probably lead to a two yard loss.  Despite having a less than imposing stature, Polk is eager to drive a shoulder into would be tacklers and push for the extra yard or two.  Unlike most physical runners, Polk runs with a high center of gravity very similar to Golden Tate, which allows him to keep his knees high and churn his legs through tough sledding.  Like Tate, Polk has a strong sense of balance and can keep plays going for extra yards.  Outside of Trent Richardson, Polk appears to be the best yards after contact back in the draft because of this trifecta of tackle breaking traits.  Polk can power through a tackle but he can also slip through them too.

Polk excels at generating positive yardage almost every time he touches the ball, and he rarely fumbles.  He’s an ideal back for a ball control styled offense, particularly one that runs a zone blocking scheme and has an appreciation for the deep ball.  As such, I expect teams like Seattle or Green Bay to have serious interest in his skill set.

On the downside, Polk has never developed into a good pass blocker even with his strength and high effort.  Despite having nice size (his playing weight last year was 222 pounds) Polk has a soft physique to the naked eye: he doesn’t look cut the same way that pretty much every other top running back looks.  I don’t care about that, but I could see how that could bother GMs who are less familiar with Polk and could make judgements about athleticism based on his appearance.  Polk also had a pair of shoulder injuries/surgeries during his Huskies career, most recently in January of 2010.  It might be asked how much a shoulder injury matters to a running back, but for a physical back like Polk with receiving skills, it might matter a bit more than not at all.

As a final critique to Polk, I’d point out that while his performances are very consistent, his speed isn’t.  Maybe his worst game last year was his final game against Baylor.  Thankfully, Baylor has a terrible defense which allowed Polk to amass 147 yards and a long touchdown, but truth be told, he looked slow and stiff that game.  There will be games here and there where Polk looks like he’d lose to David Hawthorne in a footrace.  They are rare instances, but I’d be lying if I said they didn’t concern me at all.

In conclusion:

How highly you think of Polk will directly correlate to what you value from a running back.  Do you value first downs or big plays?  Do you value pass catching or pass blocking?  For a team that wants a Clinton Portis type, it’s not hard for me to see them grading Polk in the 4th or 5th round.  For a team that is looking for an Arian Foster type of back, Polk could earn a much higher grade.

Speaking of which, how much does pass protection actually matter for a running back?  Probably a decent amount.  But consider something.  Here is a list of the best and worst pass blocking running backs in 2010.  Here are the 15 worst rated pass blockers:

1	Ray Rice	BLT	132	17	10.61
2	Adrian L. Peterson	MIN	76	9	9.21
3	Chris D. Johnson	TEN	85	10	9.12
4	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	69	8	9.06
5	Le’Ron McClain	BLT	103	11	8.98
6	Ricky Williams	MIA	95	10	8.68
7	Ryan Torain	WAS	62	6	8.47
8	Mike Goodson	CAR	65	6	8.08
9	Steven Jackson	SL	110	9	6.59
10	Keiland Williams	WAS	87	7	6.32
11	Tim Hightower	ARZ	119	9	6.30
12	Arian Foster	HST	120	10	6.25
13	LaDainian Tomlinson	NYJ	126	10	6.15
14	Lousaka Polite	MIA	109	8	5.96
15	Marcel Reece	OAK	74	5	5.74

That’s not a bad list of running backs, particularly the top 3.  Baltimore, Minnesota, and Tennessee have the three worst pass blocking backs in the league, but they aren’t exactly fretting about it since those backs bring so much else to the table.  I don’t mean to diminish the value of pass blocking, but at the same time, it’s clearly something that can be overcome by strong contributions in other areas.

Polk is a unique player that has drawn a variety of comparisons.  Some compare him to Golden Tate because the physique, balance, high center of gravity and ability to generate yards after contact are so similar.  Some have compared him to Ricky Watters, who like Polk was a rare case of being a high school wide receiver that converted to running back in college.  Though we all remember Watters as a thick and beasty runner, he was actually a slim physique guy with an upright running style much like Chris Polk back when Watters was playing in college for Notre Dame.  Watters was also a prolific receiver for a running back and had strong yards after contact.  I’ve even heard some comparisons between Chris Polk and Walter Payton due to Payton’s ability to continuously churn his legs and keep his balance.  More than a few scouts have compared Polk to Corey Dillon, which I disagree with slightly but consider flattering nonetheless, as Corey Dillon was the Trent Richardson of his day and finished his career with (in my opinion) a Hall of Fame resume.

Barring injury, I think Polk is going to have a very good career, and will be an absolute steal in the 3rd or 4th round, should he last that long.  I wouldn’t rule out Polk as a second round pick, even as a 2nd round pick by the Seahawks.  His unique combination of talents could quietly vault him up some draft boards even as he falls on others.  Given the connection Pete Carroll and Steve Sarkisian share and the fact that they both run nearly identical offenses, I see little reason to think Chris Polk couldn’t succeed for Pete Carroll after quietly being the MVP of Steve Sarkisian’s offenses the last three years.  Chris Polk may not get the team on Sportscenter’s top plays as much as Marshawn Lynch does, but he’ll win you over with quality play every game, one snap at a time.

Compilation videos:

vs. Colorado

vs. Nebraska

vs. Stanford

vs. Baylor

Highlights #1

Highlights #2

Highlights #3

In seven days time we’ll know the identity of Seattle’s latest first round pick. Here’s a few thoughts as we prepare for the home straight…

John Schneider speaks

Seattle’s GM has been talking to the media and offered a couple of interesting quotes:

“We’re not gonna pass up a really good player if he doesn’t fit into what we do.”

“You can’t just manufacture a guy, create him… that’s when you get in trouble.”

“(It’s a) really cool place to pick” – On owning the #12 pick

“He’s not gonna be there (at 12). Hes gonna be drafted high.” – On Ryan Tannehill

Before last year’s draft, Schneider was pretty open and honest about the team’s ambitions without really giving much away. He talked about the desire to move down, which was very real, and about the need to get bigger up front. It’s perhaps telling that he’s not advertising the team’s pick quite so aggressively this time, although that may purely be a negotiating strategy with the team owning a pick 13-places higher in round one.

When he says #12 is a cool place to pick, I believe him. I think it is a cool place to pick. That’s not to say the team are totally against any opportunity to trade out of the spot, but I think they’ll quite happily draft a player in that position and feel comfortable with the choice. There are two slightly contradictory quotes – the claim of not passing on a player if he isn’t an obvious scheme fit, while also arguing you can’t manufacture or ‘create’ a prospect. There’s probably a ‘lost in translation’ aspect here that separates the two quotes. Even so, I think you could file this under the Seahawks being willing to consider a prospect who isn’t an obvious scheme fit, but needing that player to have a track record at the position you’re drafting him to play. Think outside of the box for the player/position, but it’ll be a guy who knows what he’s doing.

And the Seahawks won’t be drafting Ryan Tannehill, as Schneider admits. Speaking of Tannehill…

Where does Ryan Tannehill go?

It’s a question I’m struggling to answer. A lot of people seem to love the guy, with a lot of ‘always had him in the top-15‘ type comments doing the rounds at the moment. I go back and watch the Texas tape, the Oklahoma tape, the Oklahoma State tape – and I feel like I’m watching a different guy. He has undoubted potential and I’d never argue he’s a lost cause, destined to be a total disaster upon entering the NFL. Yet I have some pretty serious reservations because some of his turnovers and decisions as a bona fide starter last year were awful. Yes – he had a lot of dropped passes. At the same time – he played behind an offensive line that kept him cleaner than any quarterback in the NCAA not named Kellen Moore. So why so many mistakes in big games?

I’m very much part of the group that sees quarterback as king in the NFL. If you’re a team that needs a quarterback and you believe in Ryan Tannehill, then go for it. I wouldn’t personally draft the guy in the first round. But I also understand quarterbacks who aren’t head-cases with plus athleticism and arm strength will go early. In an era where Christian Ponder goes 12th overall, Ryan Tannehill can go in the top-10.

I doubt he goes to Cleveland, they surely must take Trent Richardson and build a productive run-game in the AFC North with the league’s next superstar. As soon as the Browns pass on a quarterback, it gets interesting. With Mike Sherman now working in Miami, what kind of a review would it be if the Dolphins passed on Tannehill? Some people believe they will – in favor of a defensive end or even a receiver to replace Brandon Marshall. The Dolphins worked out Brock Osweiler and could also consider Brandon Weeden or Kirk Cousins outside of the first round. A precedent was set by Cincinnati last year with AJ Green and Andy Dalton, and this is a copy-cat league. When many people expected Brady Quinn to be a Dolphin, Miami took Ted Ginn.

Tanehill’s floor appears to be Kansas City at #11 if you believe the rumors. Yet I’d love to see the reaction of the Chiefs’ war-room if Mike Sherman couldn’t convince the Dolphins to draft the guy – or if he even advised them not to. Would KC second-guess the pick? Probably not, but I’d love to see the reaction and subsequent discussion. The Seahawks will benefit from Tannehill going in the top-10 as it almost certainly increases the number of pass-rushers being available at #12. Essentially, it makes sense for John Schneider to promote Tannehill’s top-10 credentials (see above).

What will the Rams do at #6?

There’s a lot of talk right now that St. Louis will pass on Justin Blackmon in preference of a defensive tackle like Fletcher Cox. I can see the line of thinking – and St. Louis needs an interior presence to compliment their edge rushers. However, it’s an idea concocted seemingly on Fisher’s previous history for the Titans and his desire to build ‘in the trenches’. That is partly true, and Fisher’s reign over the Oilers/Titans franchise always seemed to include a solid offensive and defensive line. But let’s look at the facts here. Fishers joined the team as Head Coach in 1994. The following year, they drafted quarterback Steve McNair. Over the next 16 years, the franchise used first round picks on the following positions:

QB’s – 1 (Vince Young)

RB’s – 2 (Lorenzo White, Chris Johnson)

WR’s – 2 (Kevin Dyson, Kenny Britt)

DE’s – 3 (Kenny Holmes, Jevon Kearse, Derrick Morgan)

DT’s – 1 (Albert Haynesworth)

LB’s – 1 (Keith Bullock)

DB’s – 3 (Andre Woolfork, Pacman Jones, Michael Griffin)

So in 1.6 decades with the franchise, Fisher’s franchise didn’t spend a top-pick on the offensive line and only used one pick on a defensive tackle. Four offensive skill position players were drafted in round one, along with three defensive backs and three defensive ends. St. Louis have the edge rushers, but they don’t have any outside threat at receiver and they could use an upgrade at cornerback/safety. Admittedly, Fisher wasn’t the only person involved in making the picks listed above – but if we’re using previous history to project the direction of the Rams at #6, then it doesn’t necessarily point to Fletcher Cox or a defensive tackle.

What I don’t think the Seahawks will do

Some people think Seattle’s secondary has the potential to be the best in the league (Peter King). Some think the Seahawks need to consider drafting a cornerback in round one (an increasing number of people, which I find surprising). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. There’s a lot of young talent at corner and safety and it’s a unit that really took a step forward last year. The re-signing of Marcus Trufant offers veteran depth, while Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner provided a nice partnership at corner.

I can also see the argument that carries some suspicion with Browner, who struggled at times in coverage and made up for it with big plays. He’s approaching 30 and may not necessarily be a long term feature at the position. I also buy into the opinion that argues you can never have enough good corners or wide receivers.

Even so, I think it’s a virtual lock that the Seahawks will not be drafting a cornerback in round one this year. I believe Pete Carroll and John Schneider see the secondary as an area they can exploit. Add scheme-fit players for low value then coach them up. It’s already made the likes of Sherman, Browner and Kam Chancellor household names, while Earl Thomas has had a major impact as a first round pick. The team can probably keep adding quality depth without the top end investment, allowing them to continue working on other areas. And even if Browner isn’t quite the player some believe, he deserves a chance to start next year. That would probably change if Morris Claiborne was available – but he won’t be. And I doubt Stephon Gilmore and Dre Kirkpatrick will be graded highly enough to warrant the investment.

The depth at linebacker in this class and the re-signing of Leroy Hill decreases the likelihood of a linebacker being drafted in round one – and maybe in round two. Maybe. I don’t expect the Seahawks to draft for offense in round one unless Trent Richardson suffers an unlikely fall. This has always been about the pass rush in round one. Don’t expect to see a quarterback taken in the first two rounds. You probably aren’t expecting that anyway.

Try not to overreact

Pete Carroll and John Schneider made some pretty out-there picks in 2011.

“Who is KJ Wright?”

“I didn’t like Richard Sherman in that one game!”

“Kris Durham? Is he a kicker?”

“Why are they drafting James Carpenter in round one when Andy Dalton is still on the board?” (YAWN)

Since the dynamic-duo drafted a left tackle with their first pick in Seattle in 2010, very little has been conventional. Yet they’ve since managed to set a trend for big, physical corners, helped promote a penchant for elite safety play and who’d bet against the run-first offense making a comeback league-wide? Nobody projected James Carpenter would be the team’s pick in round one last year and they’ve risked the wrath of the meaningless draft grades that appear on the internet moments after the event concludes.

So while you’re perusing the numerous high-profile mock drafts and listening to the talking heads over the next seven days, don’t be too upset if the Seahawks do what most people would call the unexpected. Rest assured it’s just part of the plan – a plan that so far has worked pretty well.

Mike Mayock on Whitney Mercilus

“I think on the positive side, there’s production, albeit one-year production which scares some teams, crazy numbers for one year, which begs the  question, where were you before then. However, when you look at what he is on tape, he’s a natural pass rusher.  He’s a natural edge rusher.  He’s got excellent take off.  He understands how to work up the field.  Does he need to learn technique and more pass rush moves?  Yes, because right now, like a lot of gifted college kids, he depends on his speed to win.

“What I would say, so he’s one of the most gifted natural pass rushers in this draft.  What I would say is that even though he repped out 225 27 times and the numbers look good, on tape he can struggle at the point of attack in the run game. And I think that’s the biggest concern that if you draft him today in the first round, how many snaps are you going to get out of him.  Maybe it will be similar to what  [Aldon]  Smith did in San Francisco; a situational pass rusher that’s disruptive and effective, and he will grow into that point of attack role where he’ll be a three-down player.  But I think that’s really the only side is can he be stout enough at the point of attack down the road to justify being a first-round pick.”

Greg Cosell on Courtney Upshaw

“He’s similar style player as Pittsburgh’s (Lamar) Woodley: 3-4 OLB who’s more of power rusher than speed rusher.”

Jason La Canfora on Vinny Curry

“You don’t hear much about Marshall DE Vinny Curry, but could he be the second outside rusher selected? Wouldn’t shock me. He’s raw, but teams are very interested. He had 13 visits, and late private workouts with teams like the Jets, Lions and Eagles. He could be in play starting around No. 14, depending on what happens up top. He’s someone a lot of teams wanted to spend some time with and learn a little more about. Knocks have emerged on other defensive ends over time. I can’t help but wonder if Curry ends up hearing his name called much higher than many have projected, similar to a Tyson Alualu a couple years back.”

Written by Kip Earlywine

Something I’ve come to believe as I’ve gotten older is that the more I learn about something, the more I realize how little I actually know.  I think every fan has had moments where they believed they were smarter or had better evaluation skills than an NFL front office.  There were times when I felt that way in the past.  That said, after watching John Schneider and Pete Carroll find so many mid to late round success stories, it’s really hammered home how vast a difference there is between my ability to evaluate talent and theirs.  I wasn’t a fan of the KJ Wright pick.  I wasn’t a fan of the Kam Chancellor pick.  I was lukewarm on Richard Sherman (although I did like his upside).  I was lukewarm on Earl Thomas.  And I never thought Doug Baldwin would amount to anything in the NFL, and that was after having the benefit of seeing him in four preseason games.

Because of humbling experiences like those, I’ve come to believe in my own opinion a little less and listen to the input of others a little more.  There are times when I rate a player much higher than most others, but I accept that there must be logical reasons for the divergence in opinion.  Perhaps they have access to information I don’t have?  Perhaps I overlooked a fault or didn’t put enough value on it?  Perhaps my amateur level understanding of scheme and fit plays a role in how well that player can translate his game?

However, witnessing the slow yet steady decline of Lamar Miller’s draft stock over the past couple months has put this attitude to the test.  Miller began the offseason as a possible mid-first round pick.  I’m not a subscriber to ESPN insider, but its my understanding that in Mel Kiper’s most recent Mock (4.0), he didn’t even list Lamar Miller going in the first two rounds at all.  Kiper may be the first to be so bold, but he’s simply reflecting the consensus feeling that Miller continues to drop and drop and drop down mock drafts.  Its getting harder and harder to find a mock that even has Miller going in the first half of round two at this point.

To me, that’s crazy talk.  Granted, Miller only has one full starting season to go by, but his tape is first round quality, and he had a very strong combine.

There is only one good reason to devalue Miller’s stock, which is the stiff competition he faces from being part of the deepest and most competitive running back class in years.  Trent Richardson is clearly the top back, but spots two through four are almost a tie (in my opinion) between Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and Chris Polk, with David Wilson drawing strong consideration from many places too.  Not just that, but the next tier of running backs is loaded with talents like LaMichael James, Robert Turbin, Isaiah Pead and Bernard Pierce.  Even going into the 5th and 6th rounds, you will find starter quality backs like Cyrus Gray, Tauren Poole, Vick Ballard and Terrance Ganaway.  You don’t have to be an economist to understand the effects of supply and demand, and the incredible depth of running back options will tempt many teams to spend that valuable second round pick on another area of need instead.

Heck, even Rob and I were guilty of as much when we passed on Lamar Miller in Mocking the Draft’s writer’s mock, though we only did so because we felt convinced that a linebacker with the kind of special speed Seattle wants would not last another round.  It still hurt though, because while Rob and I may not always agree on every prospect, we both view Miller as a 1st round talent.  Getting Miller in the second round would feel a lot like having another first round pick.

There is so much to like about Miller, he’s kind of the Lavonte David of running backs:  a mountain of positive features with some uncertainties but no glaring negatives.

First, let’s talk about speed.  Lamar Miller is tied with David Wilson for being the fastest big name running back in the draft.  But unlike Wilson who accomplishes that speed with long strides, Miller takes very short strides which gives him change of direction skills that Wilson can only dream of.  Whereas Wilson is easily the least shifty of the top running backs, Miller is the shiftiest back in the draft.  Miller’s ability to juke and slip around defenders makes him a frequent comparison to Clinton Portis.

Miller has pull away speed and will be a threat to score from anywhere even in the NFL. He’s not Chris Johnson tier, but he’ll be faster than most running backs in the league on day one.  This is a very valuable asset as Seattle still needs to find more ways to produce big plays.  He also has the quickness to be dangerous both inside and outside of the tackles.  Every carry Miller makes has a good chance to be a big gain.

Miller’s vision is a strength and he has the instincts to take what he can get when appropriate or show the patience to hit a developing cutback lane instead.  He accelerates with deceptive speed and knows how to get skinny at the first level.  Miami had an above average run blocking line, but Miller knows how to take full advantage of good blocking and maximize yardage with his opportunities.  In my four game sample I was very impressed with the very low number of negative plays Miller made.  Everything comes naturally to him and he often makes it all look very easy.  He’s also consistent game to game.  Only three times in twelve games last year did Miller average less than 4.2 yards per carry.

I think what surprised me the most about Miller is how tough he was to bring down.  He doesn’t look especially muscular and typically runners with elusive skill sets tend to lack strength.  Miller isn’t quite as strong as Chris Polk or Doug Martin, but he plays hard and can push a pile.  That power is even more surprising since he tends to avoid stiff arms in favor of maximized ball security.  Per ESPN, Miller has only had three fumbles (two lost) in 381 career touches.  Miller knows how to take care of the rock which will have added appeal for a ball control team like Seattle that stresses turnover ratio very heavily.

Miller is only 20 years old as of this writing (he turns 21 next week).  Like Trent Richardson and David Wilson, time is on Miller’s side as he’ll have nine full NFL seasons before reaching his 30th birthday.

One of the drawbacks of being so young is that Miller hasn’t had a very large body of work yet, which means we really can’t say much about his receiving ability or pass blocking.  In my sample he made a diving touchdown catch and never suffered a drop, so I think the initial signs there are encouraging.  As far as pass blocking, I have no idea, but given how hard he plays the game, I’d imagine he’s a willing blocker and will be receptive to coaching.  Some teams who are looking for an immediate three down starter could shy away from Miller because of the risk that he’s potentially only a two down back.  Seattle has twenty six year old Marshawn Lynch on a four year contract, making them an ideal landing spot for Miller as he can work on his receiving and blocking skills over the next few years while backing up a franchise player.

Miller suffered a shoulder injury early last season, but it appeared to be minor and Miller didn’t miss time from it.

In conclusion:

Lamar Miller isn’t just a second round steal, he’s a perfect fit in every way for what the Seahawks need at running back.  He’s good enough to be a legitimate starting running back if Lynch gets hurt, and he’s also useful as a change of pace back in the meantime.  A Lynch/Miller paring would be a lot like the Gore/Hunter pairing in San Franscisco, where Frank Gore wears down a defense and then Kendall Hunter slashes through a weary defense while Gore rests.  You may recall in Seattle’s second game against the 49ers the Seahawks defense contained Gore (3.6 YPC) but was consistently punished by Hunter (6.1 YPC).  Hunter was a 4th round pick last year, and his addition to the roster not only gave the 49ers a future successor to Gore but also improved the running game in the short term.  Miller could do the same, except better.

Wherever Miller goes, I have little doubt he’ll continue the recent tradition of excellence from Miami running backs.  In just the last decade or so, Miami has produced the following list of productive NFL running backs:  Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, and Frank Gore.  Miller has the talent to join that impressive list of names in a few years’ time.

Compilation videos:

vs. Maryland

vs. Virginia Tech

vs. Ohio State

vs. Boston College

Written by Kip Earlywine

Tank Carder played middle linebacker in TCU’s 4-2-5 defense.  Carder was voted an All American by ESPN and the AFCA in 2010.  In 2011, Carder was a consensus All American.

Defensive coordinators at both the NFL and college levels are beginning to lean towards nickle defenses as a base defense due to the advent of the elite pass catching TEs we’ve seen the last few years.  TCU is one such team that has already gone there.  Because of this unconventional base scheme, TCU used Carder in a very aggressive role that had him attacking the line of scrimmage very often as opposed to a more typical 4-3 Mike who lets the play come to him most of the time and acts as the second level’s safety net.  The result of using Carder so aggressively was fewer tackles but a greater number of big plays.

There is a lot to like about Tank Carder, and if not for the unconventional role he played in college I’d wonder why so many experts have Carder in the 4th or 5th round.  Carder’s forty time is average, but his field speed is better than average.  His vertical jump is average, but his short area quickness is one of his biggest strengths.  Carder’s 1.57 ten yard split is very close to the numbers put up by Mychal Kendricks or Zach Brown.  Carder’s 6.89 three cone drill is also one of the fastest among all linebackers.  On tape, I thought he looked every bit as quick as those measurements would indicate.  He has very quick feet and can drop his hips and accelerate as fast as any linebacker in the draft.  He also really impressed me with his stop and go agility.  Its very hard to run by Carder in the open field because he breaks down with his lower body so well.

TCU used Carder as an attacking linebacker which is smart because like Aaron Curry, Carder is at his best when he’s allowed to be aggressive.  And while I know its tempting to assume any comparison to Curry is a bad thing, it’s not.  There were certainly some areas where Curry had a lot of ability, he just couldn’t overcome some weaknesses that cancelled out his strengths.  Carder is a natural downhill linebacker and he could probably play any of the linebacker spots if he added weight.

Carder is a fun player to watch and in particular I love watching him lay out on a tackle or a sack, which he does several times a game.  Carder may not have the strongest upper body, but he knows how to explode into a tackle.  On the downside, he dives after tackles a bit too much for my liking, and I’ve also noticed that he tends to leave his feet sometimes and forgets to drive his legs through the tackle.  There are also times where he goes for the hit and sometimes forgets to wrap up, but when he does hit, they can be quite spectacular (check out the Wisconsin video at the 3:30 mark).

Only a week younger than Demario Davis, Carder also has the “old” prospect label.  It’s nothing worth holding against him as a prospect, but he’ll have fewer years before his 30th birthday than most other prospects, which diminishes his total value slightly.

I only have one significant concern with Carder, and that is his ability to give run support.  A couple times a game he’ll let a runner escape untouched through his gap.  Carder also needs to refine his tackling as he’s currently relying on the big hit too much and doesn’t wrap and drive consistently.  He’s also disturbingly prone to being blocked out of plays.  For as hard as he can hit, he gets pushed out of a lane in a hurry.

In conclusion:

I don’t want to get into a guessing game about what Seattle’s 2012 defensive scheme will look like, because I’m not an X’s and O’s guy, but I can tell you this:  I think Seattle’s defensive scheme will probably make a major shift of some sort next year.  Why do I think this?  First, I think this because Rob and I have it on good authority that the team has some interest in Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram, and there is almost no way you could pencil in a guy like that on 2011’s defense without changing the scheme in some way to make it work.  Second, we know that Seattle wants to “get faster” at linebacker even though their previous three linebackers had decent speed (when healthy).

I think when Pete Carroll says he wants to get faster at linebacker, he’s telling the truth, but that lesser truth serves to disguise a greater truth, which is that Pete is looking for a fundamentally new kind of linebacker corps with completely different skill sets-  just like how TCU’s linebacker corps are very different from most 4-3 teams.  David Hawthorne was PFF‘s #2 free agent inside linebacker this year, and Seattle (who had plenty of money) barely even tried to retain him.  When a team lets a good player go when they could have very easily retained that player, that is often a sign that the team has something new in mind scheme wise.

My hunch is that Seattle will prefer a “safety net” middle linebacker who can cover a lot of ground, which would make Zach Brown and Bobby Wagner prime candidates in round two.  Carder is good in coverage- zone coverage- because he reads quarterbacks well and has the acceleration to jump routes.  If Seattle is looking for that kind of middle linebacker, then Carder could be a great value in the mid rounds for Seattle.

I don’t know if Carder fits what Seattle wants, but he’s a player I really like.  His upside is pretty close to Lofa Tatupu, and his downside is pretty close to Matt McCoy.  I think at the least, Carder will be a good special teams player and backup inside linebacker.  Depending on what Pete envisions for the middle linebacker role, Carder could make a lot of sense for Seattle in rounds four or five.

Compilation videos:

JMPasq:  Tank Carder vs. Wisconsin (2010)

TMBDraft:  Tank Carder NFL Draft Analysis – 2010 Season

Just watch.

Written by Kip Earlywine

I still have a few more first and second round prospects I want to cover before the draft, but I think now is a good time to cover a few of the mid-round options for the Seahawks. Today, I’m starting with Demario Davis, a small school player who’s received some attention after a strong Senior Bowl week and a ridiculously awesome combine.

Davis played for Arkansas State of the Sun Belt conference, a conference that rarely produces national title contending teams and who’s best players are often late round draft picks.  It’s not a conference with a large national following.  As a result, available game tape on Davis is pretty rare.  If there is one area of the draft where draft pundits and actual scouting departments diverge the most- it’s with small school players.  A lot of national draft pundits barely care to scout those teams looking for gems, and when they do look into a player, it’s only after that player was thrust under the spotlight, either by a Senior Bowl performance, a strong combine, or perhaps after his name leaked out while having a conversation with real NFL scouts.  Ordinary people like us just don’t have the resources or man hours that NFL front offices have, and so while I’m just looking into Demario Davis less than two weeks before the draft, I’m sure many NFL scouting departments have been aware of him for years.

There is just one Davis compilation video on youtube, which I link below.  There are a few Arkansas St. games which flash a handful of plays by Davis.  Most of the videos I found were Demario Davis highlight reels posted by youtube user King23Respected, who I’m 99% certain is Demario Davis himself.  You know it’s rough when you might be one of the five best 4-3 LBs in the draft, and you have to do your own youtube videos (thanks for those, by the way).

Because there isn’t much material out there, Demario Davis hasn’t been talked about all that much among draft pundits or draft bloggers, or at least not as much as he deserves.  Davis is commonly mocked in rounds three or four, with some having him even later.  Will NFL front offices let him wait that long?  Is Davis a sleeper second round pick?  Well, he should be, in my opinion.  Let me be up front, I’ve seen nowhere near enough of Davis to meet my own standards for making a scouting report.  But what I’ve seen of him, I like a lot.

First, lets talk about the offseason Davis is having.  Davis was invited to the Senior Bowl and drew positive reviews.  At the scouting combine, Davis ran a 4.52 forty time, just a hair behind Mychal Kendricks and Zach Brown.  He posted an amazing 32 reps in the bench press, which was best among all linebackers and better than most linemen.  His 10 yard split was ordinary and his 3 cone time was a disappointment, but he posted a nice 38.50″ vertical.  Overall, Davis is having one of the better offseasons among all linebackers.

I had my suspicions about Davis.  How could a player stand out at both the Senior Bowl and combine and not be talked about more?  I worried he’d look flat on tape.  He didn’t.

If anything, what really jumps out is how agile Davis is.  How did Mychal Kendricks post a 6.70 3-cone while Davis posted a 7.19?  Did he fall down running it?  Davis’ change of direction skills and acceleration are among his greatest strengths, which makes him deadly as a pass rusher and potent in pursuit.  In terms of field speed, Davis is in my opinion, the fastest downhill running linebacker in the draft.  He play’s with a bit of an exaggerated lean which keeps his body weight over his toes at all times.  I’m not a linebacker coach and this approach probably has its drawbacks, but one thing it clearly helps Davis with is exploding forward once the play is diagnosed.  Davis doesn’t look as fast in a backpedal or in side to side speed, if only in those respects I’d rank him behind Zach Brown and Bobby Wagner.

At the combine Davis posted the aforementioned 32 reps on the bench press, which is extremely impressive.  Davis isn’t just weight room strong either.  He’s wowed me at times with his bone crunching hits and violent arms.  He can shed blockers well with just raw strength and plays way above his 235 pound weight.  In terms of strength he reminds me a lot of Courtney Upshaw, and to me that’s high praise as Upshaw has pretty much made a college career out of his strength and arm use.  Davis also knows how to combine his speed, acceleration, and power into some of the most awe-inspiring hits of any 2012 prospect I’ve seen to date.  As you might expect, his combination of speed and power makes him a feared special teams contributor as well.

Davis played mostly weak side linebacker, but his team played him all over the place as 235 pounds isn’t all that undersized for a linebacker in the Sun Belt conference.  I don’t know how many NFL linebackers man the middle at only 235 pounds, but I’m guessing its not many.  Davis is strong enough, tall enough, and fast enough to give it a try, but any team that drafts Davis could end up being stuck with him as a pure 4-3 Will linebacker if he can’t add more weight.  If Seattle drafts a likely Will linebacker with their second round pick, someone like Lavonte David, Mychal Kendricks or possibly even Zach Brown, that might cause them to approach Davis with caution unless they feel confident he has enough scheme diversity to play two spots in the linebacker corps.

Can Davis add weight?  I’m not sure.  To be honest, I was very surprised to see that he was measured the same height as KJ Wright, as on tape Davis looks short and squatty.  That could be an illusion created by the fact that Davis tends to lean much more than most linebackers do.  Anyway, a 6’3″ height would certainly imply potential for weight gain into the 240s or even 250s.  However, Davis doesn’t have a very wide or sturdy looking frame, and doesn’t lack for muscle.  I don’t know if his frame is maxed out, but I do have a hard time seeing him easily adding another 10 pounds, 6’3″ or not.

Davis’ speed, power, and violent style of play combined with his slightly smallish frame and relatively low weight could potentially make him a magnet for injuries at middle linebacker.  I don’t want to rule Davis out for anything, but like Mychal Kendricks I think Davis should probably be slotted in at Will linebacker if possible.

Against the run, Davis’ instincts are more good than bad, but he will occasionally guess wrong when attacking a run play, and occasionally he’ll misjudge a runner a slip off the tackle.  It’s more good than bad, and if a coach can improve him in those areas, he has elite potential against the run despite his weight.  He attacks the running game with a chip on his shoulder and gives top effort on every snap.

I really like how fast and fluid Davis looks when blitzing.  Not very many 4-3 linebackers are feared pass rushers, but Davis has a real chance to be one.  I think I like him as a blitzer even more than Mychal Kendricks- although Davis did excel against a lower level of competition, which has to be factored.

Its a very minor gripe, but it should be pointed out that Davis turns 24 years old during the 2012 playoffs, making him one of the older 2012 prospects.  Its nothing to hold against him really, but its worth something that he’ll have one or two fewer seasons in the NFL than many other draft eligible linebackers.

The biggest mystery about Davis is his coverage ability.  I didn’t see nearly enough of him to get a read on it.  Obviously, being as fast as he is helps a lot, and it’s common for linebackers to develop in coverage as they mature in the NFL.  If the Seahawks aren’t convinced about Davis’ coverage ability it is possible they might drop him down their draft board considerably if they are indeed looking for linebackers who can cover first and foremost.  I’m not bashing Davis’ coverage nor am I celebrating him for it.  I just don’t know how good he is at it, and even a lot of the scouting reports I read on Davis seem unsure as well.  I’m sure the Seahawks have formulated an opinion, I just don’t know which way that opinion will go.  Given his speed and effort, it’s probably in the affirmative, but I can’t say for certain.

In conclusion:

FFtoolbox had a great one-liner in their review of Demario Davis which I think says it all:

Davis has a ton of upside and honestly, he’s the type of player that Vontaze Burfict wishes he could become.

Like Burftict, Davis is a violent, nasty, and powerful player, but with the kind of speed and discipline that Burfict can only dream of.  This draft is loaded with 4-3 Will linebacker talent, but I think Davis might have the highest ceiling of them all.  He’s a very similar player to Mychal Kendricks but with more of a “wow” factor.  I’d happily take him in the 2nd round, but the good news is that Seattle might be lucky enough to snag Davis in the 3rd or 4th round depending on how long NFL GMs figure they can wait for him.  Davis has no business lasting into the 4th or 5th round, but if he does, he’ll be this year’s Kam Chancellor or Richard Sherman, the kind of player that will in short order cause writers around the NFL to openly ask how in the hell he lasted as long as he did.

Compilation videos:

JMPasq:  Demario Davis vs. Northern Illinois

vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (not specific to Davis)

vs. North Texas (not specific to Davis)

King23Respected’s Channel (has a few highlight videos)

Peter King believes the Seahawks would draft Ryan Tannehill if available. King: “Teams around the league know how much Seattle loves Tannehill. And you can write this down: If Tannehill were to be there at 12, Seattle would take him, even though the Seahawks just paid medium dollar for Matt Flynn in free agency. That’s how much Seattle loves him. “At Tannehill’s workout,” one source told me, “[coach] Pete Carroll was giggling like a schoolgirl watching him throw. His attitude was like, ‘What are we even doing here? He’ll never be there for us.’ ”

It’s only fair to mention that King also mocked Jimmy Clausen to Seattle in 2010, noting, “(the) Hawks think he’s a top-5 player in draft.” I have it on good authority Clausen wasn’t even on Seattle’s draft board. Evidently, several teams clearly felt the same way.

Sigmund Bloom runs through some of the options facing the Seahawks in the draft – with a cameo from myself and Danny from Field Gulls. Bloom: “The team endured a lot of injuries last year, so with some luck and a good first-round pick, they could challenge the 49ers for NFC West supremacy. The 12th pick represents many intersections of value and need, so handicapping the odds of how they’ll use their pick is one of the bigger challenges of the first round.”

Charlie Casserly looks at how teams use mock drafts on the internet at this stage in the process. Casserly: “In my time with the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans, I never paid any attention to mock drafts … until a week before the NFL draft. This is when I found them to be the most reliable. Consequently, this is when I would begin to study them.”

Mike Mayock isn’t a fan of Quinton Coples. In fact, he would consider passing on the UNC lineman in round two.

Tony Pauline believes the New York Jets would like to trade up to draft Melvin Ingram. Pauline: “This may come as no surprise but the chatter is getting louder from league insiders that the primary strategy for the New York Jets in round one would be trading up for Melvin Ingram of South Carolina.  Who are potential trade partners?  The Jacksonville Jaguars for starters, though we hear there will be competition for that selection if it comes into play.”

Aaron Wilson reports that Utah State linebacker Bobby Wagner has a visit to Seattle on his schedule. Wilson: “The four-year starter, two-time captain and three-time All-Western Athletic Conference selection has several upcoming visits, a total of 15 meetings with NFL teams. Wagner was voted the Most Outstanding Player on the North squad during the Senior Bowl with seven tackles, one for a loss and an interception and is graded as a solid second-round draft prospect.”

Pat Kirwan says teams hoping to get a pass rusher better take one early. Kirwan: “One defensive coordinator said to me that, ‘There’s a couple of guys, very few that can come in and rush an NFL QB in this draft and the problem is everyone knows who they are so you better take one early.'”

Kevin Wiedl has high praise for Doug Martin. Wiedl: “Martin is clearly the second-best back in the 2012 class, behind only Alabama’s Trent Richardson, and has the ability to come in and be a starter. He’s solidly in the early part of the second round, and it wouldn’t shock me to see a team scoop him up late in the first.”

If you missed our earlier blog post and like the Jon Gruden QB camp videos on ESPN, check it out. We have each of the episodes in full.

I’ve got a lot of tape to publish over the next few days… some more Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Zach Brown, BJ Coleman and Ryan Lindley. Let’s start today with Russell Wilson: