I wanted to wait until after the New Orleans game to post this.

After all — I’d witnessed the Saints come to London, devour Minnesota’s offensive line and turn Kirk Cousins into the check-down-Charlie he has a tendency to become.

This was a real test. Not the cakewalk we saw in Detroit or against the Falcons.

Geno Smith passed the test with flying colours.

I don’t need to post all the rankings and statistics that other people have researched — you’ve probably seen them all by now anyway. The ‘TLDR’ version is simply that he’s in the top-five in virtually every quarterback-relevant metric. He is currently PFF’s highest graded QB with an outstanding 90.2 grade.

Frankly, he’s been a revelation.

Yes there have been some slow moments. The first three games saw the offense grind to a halt after half-time. They failed to score a point against the admittedly excellent San Francisco defense.

Yet the performance in New Orleans, despite the upgrade in opponent, once again showed off what Smith has done so well to start 2022.

A lot of people are praising his ability to execute the offense (which he is doing very well). I think he’s gone beyond that. I don’t think he’s just ‘functioned’ his way to a 90.2 grade. I think he’s actually in attack mode.

He’s taking the fight to the defense. He’s throwing with confidence, poise and more than a hint of aggression. However, the accuracy and timing remains.

It’s been so impressive to see him throw to all levels of the field with so much skill. The touchdowns to Tyler Lockett on Sunday were textbook and brilliant — the kind of throws we’d all be amazed by if Justin Herbert was the one throwing the pass.

He’s taking the chance to challenge defenders 1v1, he’s throwing over the middle, he understands when to check down, he’s being creative with his legs. Geno Smith is playing like a X-factor talent.

He is making the most of his two key receiving weapons. The tight ends are a dynamic factor in Seattle for the first time in the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have the #1 offense per DVOA and it’s not an illusion or a red-herring.

It’s simply that Geno Smith is playing that well.

I’m happy to admit my concerns have so far been proven completely wrong. In fairness, I don’t think anyone expected this — short of those investing blind faith. But I was especially critical because I expected a player who would function against bad opponents then be shut-down by moderate-to-good opponents.

I thought he would be a turnover risk when pressured or when feeling the need to score and keep pace in explosive games.

None of that has been the case. He’s instead been attack-minded and dynamic without risking turnovers. Smith has elevated his play far beyond anything we saw in his previous stints as a starter, or any snaps he had in pre-season with the Seahawks.

He deserves tremendous praise — which he is getting from the fans and media — and he’s developing into something of a cult hero. A phenomena.

If it continues the Seahawks should start talking him up as ‘comeback player of the year’ during media conferences. Get a little momentum behind the campaign.

It’s actually a shame the defense is so horrendous that he isn’t getting the support his play deserves. Even if the unit were middling, they’d have a chance to win any game with the offensive output they’re producing.

It’s not only Smith who deserves credit though. The receivers and tight ends are stepping up too. The two rookie offensive tackles are providing great confidence for the future with the way they are starting their careers. Shane Waldron is creating the kind of production we all hoped a Sean McVay protégé would provide. Pete Carroll deserves credit because his faith in Smith has been unwavering and it has been repaid.

This season is about finding green shoots for the future and the offense is certainly delivering that. This is good news.

Admittedly there are still 12 regular season games remaining and things can change. If this continues though, it’s a big positive for the Seahawks.

So what does it mean for the future?

A lot of people are already talking about extending Smith’s contract or at least retaining him for next season. On his current trajectory, that would appear to be a no-brainer. There are some things people need to remember though.

Firstly, he will be a man in demand if he keeps this up. If Kirk Cousins can set records for guaranteed money as a free agent — don’t put it past someone making a humungous offer for Smith if he continues his fine play.

The Seahawks don’t have much cap space to play with in 2023. The media keep talking up their spending power because Russell Wilson’s dead money comes off the books. Most of it has been spent already. Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, for example, will cost a combined $36m against the cap next season. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will cost $31m. Uchenna Nwosu and Shelby Harris account for nearly $26m currently. Will Dissly and Noah Fan will cost $17m.

As of today, Seattle is only projected to have $32m in effective cap space for 2023. They can create more but not much more — and will create holes that need filling on the roster if they start cutting veteran starters.

Making the situation worse is the fact they only have 33 players contracted for next year — the third fewest in the league.

The $32m in cap space will evaporate quickly as they fill out their roster.

They simply don’t have a lot to play with, unless they want to extend Smith on a long-term contract and produce a smaller cap hit for next year. That would be a risk given he turned 32 yesterday and might not benefit from the ‘surprise’ nature of his 2022 re-emergence in future seasons (or even later this season).

If he continues to play this way, he might even start asking for major money. The top quarterbacks are being paid $50m a year these days. He wouldn’t get near that — but Jimmy Garoppolo’s last contract paid him nearly $28m a year. That’s not unreasonable for a player performing like he is at the moment. The Seahawks couldn’t afford that unless, like Garoppolo, it was a five-year extension.

I think the Seahawks fully intended to have a quarterback in 2023 that was on a rookie contract. I think they spent accordingly this year because they anticipated not spending at quarterback. I think that was their plan.

Smith’s form has probably surprised them as much as it has us, regardless of what Carroll might say about believing in Geno. If they truly believed, he wouldn’t be on a proportionally tiny one-year contract which now looks great value for 2022 but a problem when the season ends.

It might force the Seahawks to run the risk of losing Smith if another team bites and snatches him away. Ideally they keep Smith and draft a quarterback and have the best of both worlds — but they could end up having to go the rookie route anyway.

It’ll be fascinating to see what his market ends up being.

I also hope the Seahawks show restraint and more or less stick to the plan. Smith is into his 30’s and not likely a long-term solution. It’d be great if he could be Seattle’s answer to Alex Smith in Kansas City. That way, they can be aggressive to find a long-term successor, redshirt them like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes and possibly get a handsome trade return for Smith when it’s time to pass on the baton.

While the top priority might appear to be fixing the defense — as I’ve spent considerable time noting recently — the answers are unlikely to come in the first round of the 2023 draft. This is a class with a collection of four highly talented but different quarterbacks plus Will Anderson and Bijon Robinson who deserve a high-ish first round placing. After that it’s extremely hard to identify top-15 players, game-wreckers and playmakers on defense.

Getting a young quarterback in a good year for the position at the top of round one remains a very enticing proposition.

Fortunately I also think there are defensive diamonds to be uncovered on day two and three and I’ll write about some of them in an article due out this week.

As Smith continues to excel and be Seattle’s ‘MVG’ (rather than ‘MVP’) — setting up a Smith/Mahomes transition would be the best thing to do for the long-term future of the franchise. That might mean negotiating with Smith now, taking a slight gamble that he continues his great form while also getting a bit of a discount because you’re securing his future today and placing a bet on his continued success.

He might wish to bet on himself, of course. He also might appreciate a show of faith and some long-term security that probably felt a million miles away just a few months ago when he was simply fighting to win a starting job.

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This was a slightly different scouting week, with two big name quarterbacks not featuring.

Will Levis has been sacked 18 times in five games and finally, the beating caught up to him. He missed Kentucky’s game against South Carolina. It probably boosted his stock because without him, the Wildcats fell to a horrible home loss to struggling South Carolina.

Bryce Young was always likely to miss time after leaving Alabama’s game against Arkansas with a limp arm. He didn’t play against Texas A&M and ‘Bama were fortunate to escape with a win.

It gave me a chance to focus on other players, specifically non-quarterbacks, over the last 48 hours. I have an article coming this week breaking down a collection of prospects who’ve caught my eye — along with my usual QB notes.

But I’ll stress again — I am really struggling to find legit top-15 players for the 2023 draft.

I suspect two quarterbacks — Will Levis and C.J. Stroud — will go very early. It’s possible Bryce Young goes very early too although that will depend on how teams view his size and thus, his durability. Anthony Richardson’s ridiculous upside could also mean he is a high first round pick, despite his mixed 2022 season so far.

Will Anderson is not a Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa level player but he is the best bet at acquiring a defensive playmaker. He will go early.

I think many teams will have Texas running back Bijan Robinson as possibly the highest graded player on their board although his position will have a say in how high he goes. In a weak top-end, he could easily go in the top-10. I wouldn’t be shocked if Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is also rated very highly.

Michael Mayer, the tight end from Notre Dame, could also go very early if he tests well at the combine. His change of direction skills at his size are freakish and he’s been a highly consistent, productive weapon for the Irish.

Bryan Bresee missed his second game at the weekend with a kidney infection, having also missed time due to the sad passing of his younger sister. Unfortunately, having missed most of last season with an ACL, it’s hard to project him given how little he’s playing. I know he’ll test very well at the combine so there’s an upside projection that could get him into the top-15.

Jalen Carter is also injured and missed Georgia’s latest win. It’s unclear when he’ll return with Kirby Smart being quite vague at his press conference today. I am not convinced he’s the top-10 pick many project and without a fantastic combine, is more likely to be graded in the later first round.

There’s a dearth of draft-eligible game-wrecking defensive linemen. I am yet to see a single linebacker worthy of a first round projection. The safety position is weak at the top end. There are cornerbacks who can emerge but it’s tricky to project them on tape because teams are avoiding them (and still moving the ball).

That’s not to say good players and rough diamonds aren’t there. Clemson pass rusher K.J. Henry, for example, could end up being a day-two steal. His upside and potential is top-notch — but it’s taken him years to make it happen at Clemson and despite his improved play he has one sack in six games.

I like the depth later in the draft and I think good players can and will be found. At the top of round one, however, it’s a mess. It’s virtually impossible to find players worthy of a legit first round grade.

Currently, the Seahawks would gain the 10th and 11th picks in the draft. There’s a long way to go in the season — but if it finishes that way or something similar (and I suspect it might) I think the best thing to do would be to trade up.

Carolina have to be the red-hot favourites to get the #1 pick now that Matt Rhule has been fired and they are embracing a tank. They’ll likely start to sell-off assets.

Seattle needs someone like Pittsburgh or Las Vegas to keep losing so they can get into range for a trade. This is shaping up to be the worst top-15 in many years. Moving up to get a quarterback or Anderson is the smart move. Currently, anyone watching a lot of college football can say with a high degree of confidence you will not be able to find two players at #10 or #11 that can elevate Seattle’s struggling defense.

Furthermore — and people keep forgetting this — Geno Smith is a free agent in 2023. There’s no guarantee he’ll be back. And if he keeps playing the way he is currently, he’s going to be extremely expensive.

Right now the Seahawks only have $32m in effective cap space for next year because of decisions such as committing $36m in cap hits to Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. We shouldn’t assume Smith will be easy to retain, or that a young, cheap quarterback is no longer a need. Or, for that matter, that the defensive players exist in this draft that can change the fortunes of a unit that has started each of the last four years badly, has gone through different coordinators and coaches, tweaks and changes and cannot find a formula that works.

I suspect a trendy viewpoint among fans will be to go defense with their two first round picks and then wait on the quarterback until round two or even three. I cannot stress enough — unless you can get to Will Anderson, I’m not sure any defensive player is going to tilt the balance of this unit from shambles to acceptable. Even he is unlikely to have a Bosa/Garrett/Parsons level impact.

And as I continue to absorb 6-8 college football games a week — including tape of all of the big name QB’s — I cannot say with confidence there is a quarterback worth taking beyond the top group. Perhaps UCLA’s vastly underrated Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the exception (and if you’re drafting him, make sure you grab Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo while you’re there).

That is why I’m so eager to see defensive improvement. This team cannot create excitement and faith in the future without the defensive unit performing better. They don’t have to be elite. Pete Carroll wants complementary football. So complement your offense — which is performing way beyond realistic pre-season expectations. Become average rather than abysmal on defense and you’ll win plenty of football games with the offensive production you’re currently churning out.

Create an environment where scoring 103 points in three games gets you a winning, not a losing, record.

We need to feel good about players like Darrell Taylor, Jordyn Brooks, Poona Ford and Quandre Diggs — not wondering aloud how we replace them, in a scheme none of us can say is actually any good or suited to your key players.

The top of the 2023 draft class isn’t going to be a knight in shining armour for the Seahawks defensively. The players already on the roster need to be better. The answers are going to need to come creatively — via wise trades, solid drafting and good moves in free agency. They need to put their players in a position to succeed. I’m not sure this scheme suits them at all. The evidence certainly suggests it doesn’t.

We need to see defensive green shoots on the field in the coming weeks.

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Well, what is there left to say about this defense?

The Seahawks have scored 103 points in their last three games and won only once.

The unit is a shambles. It’s woeful, tragic, embarrassing.

The biggest concern today was supposed to be how the offense would handle New Orleans’ pass rush. Instead, they moved the ball well. Geno Smith had another strong outing. They had explosive plays in the passing and running game. The offense did its job.

All the defense had to do was hold up their end of the bargain against a Saints team missing two key receivers. Then, they lost a third key receiver. They were starting their backup quarterback.

Instead they gave up 438 total yards. They gave up 8/14 on third downs. They conceded another 235 rushing yards.

They allowed Taysom Hill to run all over them.

The ugliest moment came when they were defending a one point lead and New Orleans lined up a formation that included zero receivers. Everyone knew what was coming. And it’s Taysom Hill not Saquon Barkley. Watch your gaps, contain, get the job done.

Nope. A 60-yard scoring run.

Hopeless.

There’s no pass rush. They are virtually playing without one at this point.

The linebackers are playing so badly it beggars belief.

Quandre Diggs appears lost.

And before anyone plays the youth card — this is a unit that has expensive, experienced players and high draft picks at every level. There’s no excuse to be this bad.

We’re not talking about growing pains here. We are talking about a mess.

It’s not good enough. This is the fourth year in a row that the defense has started the season performing abysmally. Growing pains for young players you can live with. An entire unit consistently playing this poorly?

We’re overdue an improvement.

It’s time for serious questions to be asked.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

Now comes a real test.

After a training camp, three preseason games and a month of games that count, the Seahawks are quickly running out of excuses for their poor play.  Adjusting to a new defensive scheme should not take this long.  Veteran players should be leading the way, not getting outplayed by rookies.

Something’s gotta give.

The Saints just might be the perfect test to see where the Seahawks are.  They have a talented roster made up of veterans and some exciting young players, an established record of success against the Seahawks and a chip on their shoulder thanks to two very close losses this year.

They are also a fit for the Seahawks because they are coming off a game a few time zones away in London, are banged up and have not been nearly as tight under Dennis Allen as Sean Payton had them.  They are currently worst in the NFL in giveaways and turnover ratio, are second-worst in penalties called and have been slow starters.  

It betrays their effectiveness in the other areas of their game.   It should surprise no one that they are both 1-3 and favored to beat the Seahawks on Sunday.

How can the Seahawks take the next step with a win?

Control the Game Script

This game might be the ultimate test of strategy and gamesmanship.

The Seahawks are one of the best teams in the NFL in first quarter scoring so far this season.  The Saints are one of the very worst.  It is hard to imagine a Saints team coming back from London, with an unsteady quarterback situation and missing a star player like Michael Thomas coming out of the gate quickly.

That’s the good news. 

The bad news?  The polar opposite is also true.  The Seahawks are one of the worst scoring teams in the fourth quarter on offense – and one of the worst defensive teams – while the Saints are one of the best on offense.  They have scored nine touchdowns this year, six of them in the fourth quarter.

The Saints close like a freight train and play fantastic when their backs are up against the wall.  The Seahawks like to build a lead and pray to the heavens above that they can hold it until the clock reaches zero.

With the way the defense has performed to date, it will likely fall on the offense to carry more than their share for this game.  They will need to capitalize when the Saints come out of the gate slowly, turn the ball over or shoot themselves in the foot in other ways.

They will also need to not let off the gas pedal.  If they have a 14-3 lead in the second quarter for instance, they will need to avoid the temptation to simply maintain their lead by playing conservative football.  They need to build on it.

The fourth quarter will be the time to try and drain the clock.  Keeping the ball out of the Saints’ hands with a lead will be critical.  It will require a level of planning and execution they have not accomplished as of yet.

Do Not Let Alvin Kamara Take the Game Over (Again)

If you could go into a lab and build a player to specifically attack this Seahawks defense, you’d get Alvin Kamara.

He is fast, hard to tackle and deployable as a real weapon all over the field and the Seahawks defense has arguably had more trouble with this one player in recent seasons than anyone else.

His last two games against the Seahawks:  55 touches, 340 yards, 14 first downs and 3 touchdowns.

That is about as good a two-game stretch against any one team as you are likely to find in the NFL.

Here is what makes Kamara so good when he plays the Seahawks — yards after contact in the run game and yards after the catch in the passing game.

72 of those rushing yards came after contact and  222 of the receiving yards came after the catch.

Tariq Woolen is correct when he said Kamara is “like water” when you are trying to tackle him, so smooth and silky.  He may not be the biggest or the fastest but he is incredibly hard to take down on the first try.  He has balance and a fierce determination to stay on his feet.  Package that with an innate ability to present unclean angles to the tackler and his ability to absorb contact and it’s no wonder he annually is in the top two or three players in broken tackles.

With the lack of effort and the open lanes we have seen from the Seattle defense so far this season, getting Kamara to the ground effectively might be the difference between winning and losing Sunday.  Kamara is that good and the Seahawks have been that bad.

The best thing I can say for defenders is to have a tackling plan for Kamara.  Watching tape, I cannot tell you how many times I watched defenders think they can just knock Kamara down with a shoulder-to-shoulder type hit.  Maybe it is because Kamara is not the biggest player.  Maybe defenders are just programmed that runners his size fall down when you hit them that way.  I am not sure.  But everyone needs to be committed to wrapping Kamara up, no matter what.  Got that, Cody Barton?

Pete Carroll is absolutely correct when he speaks about knowing the situation when tackling.  There are times when you blow the player up, times when getting him to the ground is the best option and times where the best thing you can do is grab on and wait for help to come.  The Seahawks currently have no concept of those times.  That seems like a pure coaching issue but that is where we are right now.

Given how poorly the defense has played these first few weeks, it is hard to have much faith that the defensive staff will get this problem corrected with three days of practice and a couple of film sessions.  Kamara presents a serious challenge in tackling.  If anything, we will be able to gauge the coaching staff’s effectiveness with as big a test as it gets on Sunday.

One thing we can praise the defense for with Kamara is the halftime adjustment they made last year to combat his effectiveness in the passing game.  Her burnt them to a crisp in the first half with eight catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.  The Seahawks responded by double covering him when he ran routes in the second half.  Result?  Only two catches for 19 yards.

Jameis Winston struggled with his security blanket taken away.  He was 5-for-15 in the second half targeting everyone else and was sacked twice and the Seahawks were nearly able to close the gap and squeeze a win out.

To be fair, the Saints did not have much in the way of receivers in that game.  Now, they have Chris Olave and Jarvis Landy (Michael Thomas is out).

It is also possible Kamara will not be 100% as this is his first game back from an injury.

Still, with the amount of damage he has done to the Seahawks’ defense in the last two games, nobody on the defense should get set in their pre-snap positions without knowing exactly where #41 is and what their assignment is for him.

Win the Receiver-Corner matchups

Get your popcorn ready for Metcalf-Lattimore II.  Last year Metcalf tormented, taunted and abused one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks with a signature performance.  It is a shame the Seahawks could not get him more touches.

What is in store this week?  Metcalf threw some serious cold water on the ‘Jeff Okuda is becoming a lockdown corner’ party last week.  Another dominant performance would take some real heat off this poor defense and further cement his legacy.

Tyler Lockett and Bradley Roby should be a great matchup as well.  One underrated thing we are learning about the Seahawks’ offense post-Russell Wilson — chemistry with Tyler Lockett was not a sole possession of Wilson that left with him when he went to Denver.  

Lockett makes his quarterback look very, very good as long as he is competent in getting him the ball.

Both Roby and Lattimore are scoring in the 50’s in PFF rating this year.  So this should be a very big test for them to see how they are really doing this year.

How about the other side of the ball?

Chris Olave is quickly taking his place among another great crop of talented young receivers.  The Saints traded third and fourth round picks to move up five spots in the first round to select Olave at #11 and he is rewarding them with a great rookie season only four games in.

A matchup with fellow rookie Tariq Woolen will be fantastic television.  Will it happen?  The Saints line up Olave all over the field but at the moment he is predominantly lining up on the right side.  So, Sidney Jones or Michael Jackson will likely cover him the majority of snaps.

Woolen will not be bored, though.  He will have Jarvis Landy to cover.  He has been one of the NFL’s most productive wide receivers and is looking to recover from a down year and a change of scenery to New Orleans.

Can Geno Redeem Himself?

Week 7 last year was Geno Smith’s second start and his third game for the Hawks in 2021.  

His play was dreadful.

He was 12-for-22 for 167 yards and a touchdown.  He was sacked five times for 38 yards, so his net passing yards were 129.  Eighty-four of those yards came on one play — the busted-tackle D.K. Metcalf touchdown in their first series.  So put another way, he only managed a measly 83 yards of passing the rest of the game.

He was hesitant.  He was jittery in the pocket.  He scrambled only once, gained 12 yards and then shut that down for the rest of the game.  He threw two terrible balls right to Saints defenders that should have been intercepted.  Freddie Swain was targeted more than Metcalf or Tyler Lockett.  You get the idea.  

It did not help that the running game could not generate much of anything – linebacker Demario Davis owned center Kyle Fuller in this game and Rashaad Penny was M.I.A. – or that Jason Myers missed two field goal tries, or the weather was inclement.  But Geno did nothing to elevate his team’s play.

Not many things would help the Seahawks more than for Geno to put that behind him and turn in a solid performance in this game.  A duplicating of his game last week against Detroit is too much to ask.  Remember – the Lions are on a historic pace for ineptitude on defense this year.  They might go down in the record books as one of worst defenses in the 21^st century if they do not get their issues sorted out.

New Orleans poses a much greater challenge.  They have a good defense, with some pieces at every level that needed to be accounted for.

The defense has put up good numbers for being hamstrung a bit by the offense.  They lead the NFL in giveaways so far this season.  Absent that, the defense likely would look much better.

One matchup that should provide some intrigue is how they defend tight ends.  Through four games, the Saints are the best in the NFL at defending tight ends.  Granted they have not faced a murderer’s row just yet but Kyle Pitts and Cameron Brate are nothing to sneeze at.  They will face a good challenge with Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant coming into New Orleans Sunday.

Here is the primary assignment for Geno in this game — make good reads and good decisions.

Why?  The Saints are 30^th in the NFL in blitz percentage so far this season.  They are preferring to keep defenders in the backfield and force the quarterback to go through his progressions.

As a result, they are clamping down on explosive pass plays, only giving up 36 first downs through the air, good for fourth lowest in the NFL.

The tradeoff is their quarterback pressure percentage and sack numbers are in the cellar.  Bottom five in the NFL.  Here’s where 2022 Geno can run circles around 2021 Geno.  He will have time to process.  He will need to be patient and slowly plod down the field at times.  A little bit of dink and dunk might be just what the doctor ordered.  Sprinkle in some timely scramble runs when he sees them available.  Bide your time and then take a shot or two to your downfield threats.

Currently the offense is running out a 40/60 run/pass split.  While that feels like a bit of a mockery of the “run first” mantra Pete Carroll preached for years, Smith has settled into an approach Carroll is far more comfortable with — take care of the football, take what the defense gives you and take your shots when they come instead of trying to make them.

Can he keep doing that against a far better defense than Detroit’s?  How Geno controls the tempo and pace of this game will tell us a lot about the Seahawks’ chances for a successful offensive season this year and whether Geno has a chance to put together a full season of good play.

Here’s what I’m watching this weekend in college football:

Missouri vs Florida
Tennessee vs LSU
Ohio State vs Michigan State
BYU vs Notre Dame
North Carolina vs Miami
Alabama vs Texas A&M
Oregon State vs Stanford

I’ll also be attempting to get access to the other key games involving quarterbacks as usual. I’ve also been busy watching non-QB prospects this week and have a whole bunch of notes ready to publish (stay tuned).

Quarterback watch

I’m not expecting a difficult day for C.J. Stroud against Michigan State. For well over a year now, the Spartans have been disgusting defending the pass. Stroud should have a field day here.

The game I’m probably most interested in is Jaren Hall and BYU against Notre Dame. This is the start of an intriguing double header for Hall (he faces Arkansas next week). Can he perform better than he did against Utah State? Can he go and get a big win against the Irish?

We’ll see if Bryce Young plays against Texas A&M. He’s listed as a game-time decision. This game is particularly intriguing given the bad blood over the summer between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban.

Tyler Van Dyke will start for Miami against North Carolina. There’s no doubt he’ll be fighting for his job now. I’ll watch the game and check him out but it seems clear his best bet will be to transfer in the off-season and have another go next year. I still think Kentucky would be a good destination for him in 2023.

Speaking of which, UK and Will Levis host South Carolina in a game they really should win. They need to bounce-back from the defeat at Ole Miss.

I will watch Hendon Hooker for Tennessee against LSU and Tanner McKee for Stanford against Oregon State. Elsewhere, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and UCLA host Utah in a very interesting game I wish I had access to. The Huskies and Michael Penix Jr go to Arizona State.

The Florida game against Missouri will have already started when I get home from work but I’ll watch it all back on catch-up. It’s a good test for Anthony Richardson against a Tigers team who pushed Georgia all the way last week. K.J. Jefferson and Arkansas go to Mississippi State. I would like to watch this game — but not to see a quarterback. More next week.

Go on draft websites or peruse ‘draft twitter’ and you see a rarely challenged consensus.

The top two quarterbacks are C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Barely anyone tries to offer a different take.

Slowly but surely, however, the tide is starting to change.

For starters, Mel Kiper listed Will Levis as his second ranked quarterback, behind Stroud. Now, there’s this report from Levis-sceptic Tony Pauline:

If you talk with scouts, it seems that Will Levis of Kentucky is the signal-caller they are most enamored with. He’s a Josh Allen type in the sense he’s big, athletic, and has a major league arm but will need proper coaching and development.

One league insider told me Bryce Young and CJ Stroud are rated higher on Draft Twitter than they are in the scouting community. Young’s size and lack of arm strength are a concern, and Stroud’s inconsistency in the short passing game has raised some red flags.

What has felt obvious for some time is finally developing into a new consensus.

Levis isn’t the perfect prospect and I’ve never tried to argue he is. I watched all of his 2021 games during the summer and I’ve watched (and written up) all of his 2022 games so far.

Clearly there are still some moments where his footwork becomes slightly lazy and it’s led to a couple of avoidable turnovers. There was a moment against Ole Miss last week where he saw a 1v1 in the red zone he liked, rushed the snap and a potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because one of his receivers didn’t have time to get set.

Yet Pauline’s report makes total sense.

I’m going to try not to keep repeating myself because it’ll become very dull and it’s only October 7th. We have months of debate ahead of us. However, this warrants a quick review.

Teams can easily turn on the Kentucky tape and see transferable pointers. They can see a player who is succeeding on a team that isn’t loaded with 5-star recruits. Levis plays behind a suspect offensive line and has been sacked 18 times in five games.

He’s facing adversity.

He played for Liam Coen last season, the current LA Rams offensive coordinator. This year he’s running Kyle Shanahan’s offense because Rich Scangarello replaced Coen. Within this scheme he takes snaps under center, he makes the reads and adjustments at the line, there is evidence of going through three progressions and he is functioning like a pro.

Then there are the traits. Levis is a burly 6-3 and 232lbs. He is an outstanding athlete. At SPARQ he jumped a 36 inch vertical, ran a 4.10 short shuttle and delivered a whopping total score of 123.27. He has a big arm and his throwing base — when he avoids the occasional lapse — is sound and secure with both feet on the turf, his shoulders square to the target and he can do all the fancy modern throws off-platform and on the run.

Plus, he has tremendous character and no red flags.

Everything here is factual and will be very appealing to NFL teams. Decision makers, when asked by their owner why they want to select Levis, can answer very easily.

He doesn’t have to have a flawless final season at Kentucky either. The basis for a high draft pick is not a Joe Burrow Heisman campaign, when he had the luxury of throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU.

Levis is getting it done and simply put, Stroud and Young cannot match any of the above.

That’s not to say they are bad players. They’re not bad players.

But look at Stroud. Here’s a player who gets to play behind a star-studded O-line, throwing to multiple first round receivers, with five-star running backs in the backfield. Before every snap, the coaches on the sideline make his reads for him and instruct him what to do.

That’s why you see interceptions like this:

Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀

CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM

pic.twitter.com/5SNbkFmOJv

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022

You need to get off that target because nothing about the coverage says ‘throw the ball here’. When you’re essentially being told what to do pre-snap, however, this can happen.

Stroud doesn’t play in a pro-style offense. Ohio State has churned out a collection of very productive athletes at quarterback over the years and there’s a consistent trend that this environment is not transferable to NFL success. You don’t face any adversity and in the pro’s you have to make your reads, make the calls, lead the team and do it all behind a weaker offensive line with playmakers who aren’t going to win every 1v1.

Then there’s Bryce Young — a naturally talented passer and the Heisman winner from last season.

Yet he too benefits from the ‘Bama effect’. Aside from the games against Georgia — which are a fair contest — every other game he plays in, he’s playing an overmatched opponent. The line and skill players. The physicality and guidance. It’s all so far ahead of everyone else. It doesn’t make for an easy projection to the next level.

Then you have to account for his size. It’s long been confirmed, including by Todd McShay recently, that he’s a shade above 5-10 and around 185lbs. How do you project that to the next level? There isn’t anyone to compare to.

Let’s say he gets drafted by someone in the top-10 — presumably without a great supporting cast (or at least with a developing offense). Can he take the punishment that will come with playing on a bad team?

Only last week he suffered a shoulder injury. And look, injuries happen to big, physical quarterbacks too. But this question is going to linger with Young. You can’t blame teams for taking this into account when putting together the order on their draft board. They’d be negligent not to.

For all the good Young shows on tape (and there is a lot of good) there are also moments that seem all too familiar having watched a shorter quarterback playing in Seattle for some time. He bails on the pocket more often than people are noting. He had a horrendous interception on a needless scramble-and-heave a couple of weeks ago and the shoulder injury supposedly happened on a needless escape last week.

I’ve seen, every week, Levis stand in the pocket with pressure coming right at him. He’s stood tall, delivered a throw and taken a hit in the pocket. Some of his best throws have come in these situations this year.

That’s NFL football. That’s what teams want.

This is why when we get to April, we’re going to see a handful of teams fighting and clawing for Levis. It’s why he might end up going first overall. It’s why I think he’ll be QB1 on a lot of boards.

If the team picking first overall somehow doesn’t need a quarterback (which seems incredibly unlikely given the way the Jets and Jaguars are improving), there’ll be a scramble to move up and select him.

The Seahawks have the stock to make a move but whether it’s possible or not, we’ll see. I’m sure many people reading this — or speaking on Twitter — will determine it’s not worth it given the offensive performance so far. I would also remind people that Seattle’s offense feasted on a Lions defense as embarrassing as theirs. Before the Detroit game, the offense had produced three points in six second-half quarters. They were shut-out by the 49ers.

I’m not sure the Big-12 game last week was indicative of a team that no longer requires a long term answer at quarterback.

Let’s also not forget — Geno Smith isn’t even contracted to Seattle next year. Even this season, when he was presented with his only opportunity to start in the league, he delayed putting pen to paper because (presumably) he wasn’t totally satisfied with the terms. That signing took longer than most people expected.

NFL free agency starts in mid-March. Despite seemingly receiving very little interest elsewhere, these are the dates he officially signed with the team since initially joining in 2019:

2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 22nd

So on two occasions he didn’t sign until two months after the league year started and on two occasions it was a month after. There may be other reasons for that (prioritising other positions ahead of backup QB) but it’s worth noting that even this year, it took until April 22nd to get a deal done.

As such, it might not be the easiest negotiation in the world if he continues to perform. It’s just something to remember. The ideal situation for this team remains having a talented young quarterback on a cheap contract with club-control for five years. We’ve seen how much that has benefited teams over the years.

Admittedly the Seahawks also have to get better on defense. Again, without wishing to repeat things I’ve already gone over a fair bit, the blue-chip defenders are simply not emerging within this draft class.

I would go as far to say that this might be the worst looking top-10 I’ve covered since starting the blog in 2008. You basically have Will Anderson who warrants a very high pick. The quarterbacks always get elevated. I’m not sure I’ve seen another player who warrants going that early.

I genuinely believe this is shaping up to be a draft where one very high pick (top-three) will be better than two firsts in the middle of round one. I don’t see a way to ‘fix’ this defense picking twice in an easily projectable 8-16 range.

I can’t see a single offensive lineman worthy of the top-10. The other defensive linemen are more 16-32 range types. There are no receivers playing well enough currently to warrant a top-10 pick. The top two cornerbacks for me (D.J. Turner & Kelee Ringo) aren’t being tested enough to pass judgement.

In 2020 you had Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons who were all big name college players who went, unsurprisingly, in the top-10. Then you had a handful of highly rated O-liners and some high-profile receivers follow shortly after. It enabled a Justin Herbert to trickle down to #6 overall. I suspect the same would happen in 2023 with C.J. Stroud if those types were in the draft next year. They aren’t, which increases the likelihood a QB-needy team will take him once Levis and Anderson are gone. Perhaps even before Anderson.

With every win the Seahawks move further away from the top picks but also, it’s hard to see how they pivot to improving the defense. Which is why, right now, I’d probably make the case for trading up.

The only plausible scenario I can imagine where you don’t — or feel comfortable not doing so — is if Anthony Richardson declares. I’ve watched all of his games for Florida and I’m well aware of his inconsistencies and mistakes. I also see a player with the physical potential to be special. To do what Josh Allen did — be an error-strewn rough diamond in college, need a couple of years in the pro’s then emerge as a superstar.

Richardson has that potential.

Allen was the seventh pick in 2018, with Buffalo trading up from #12 to get him. If Richardson declares — the Seahawks could pull a similar move. Then you have a player you can work with to be your future without perhaps needing to use multiple first round picks to get into the top two or three.

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This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen…

A discussion is warranted about the state of the salary cap next year and how the Seahawks can start looking at shaping the future of this team.

Why now?  Why not wait until the offseason to discuss this?  

There are things the Seahawks can do right now to strengthen their roster for 2023 and given the state of the team they need to start incorporating some of these decisions into their current game day roster and snap count allotments sooner rather than later.

We will dive into that in a moment.  Let’s start by looking at what they have to work with on the salary cap in 2023.

Where the Seahawks stand

According to Overthecap.com, the Seahawks currently have 33 players contracted on their roster and $34.037 million of effective cap space available for 2023.

What is “effective cap space”?  That is a projection OTC has done – they take the projected salary cap, considered the players the team has under contract and then add in the projected rookie pool cost based on the team’s current draft picks (the Seahawks have nine picks – a total of about $13.9 million of rookie salary) and then fill the rest of the 51-man roster with minimum-salary player slots as a placeholder exercise.  That number will fluctuate as the team’s 2023 draft picks change with their record (and Denver’s) as well as any personnel moves the Seahawks make.

We need to factor in a chunk of money for an injured reserve cushion, practice squad players and the Seahawks tend to carry a little free money to cover any players acquired after the bulk of the summer is over.  Call that about $6 million.

That brings us to about $28.037 million of “spendable” money for 2023.

That is an alarmingly low number for a team that does not have a quarterback under contract.  The expectation last offseason was the Seahawks would have nearly all of Wilson’s cap money set aside for 2023 to go shopping with. Maybe more.  In fact, they have a very modest amount to spend and several needs to address.

Where has the money gone?  That was Rob’s question this summer.  I recommend you have a look at the piece, as this article is a companion of sorts to that one and builds on the concerns Rob raised.

What will they need in 2023?

The Seahawks will need to fill these spots on their roster:

• A starting quarterback and a backup
• Replace or re-sign Rashaad Penny at running back
• Replace or re-sign Austin Blythe at center
• Replace or re-sign Poona Ford on the defensive line
• Replace or re-sign Jason Myers at kicker
• A linebacker to replace Cody Barton
• Pass rush help is always a need

That is by no means an exhaustive list.  Those are the key needs.

They will also need some important reserve pieces, such as a guard who can start at a moment’s notice, a third safety to plug into packages and a Travis Homer third down and special teams type.  Not to mention a veteran cornerback and perhaps a veteran wide receiver for depth.

So overall, $28 million of room is nowhere near the slush-fund that most of us envisioned when the Seahawks freed themselves of Russell Wilson’s big contract.  They will need to tread very carefully and spend wisely this offseason, something that has been a real challenge in recent years.

There is some good news to be had.  Of that list of starters they need to plug in, they can fill some of that with 2023 draft picks and keep that $28 million intact.  

A future quarterback from the draft is a must have.  Even if he does not start Week One.

It would also be hugely beneficial to once again have a very good draft and walk out with – at the very minimum – a starting center and a starting linebacker plus a running back and a defensive lineman you could work into the lineup.  They could look at drafting a kicker.

How they can help their future cap this season

The Seahawks should be applauded for making liberal use of their rookie class this season.  Charles Cross, Abe Lucas and Tariq Woolen are locked in as starters for the foreseeable future and are developing nicely.  Boye Mafe’s role on the defense is growing by the week.

But this team needs to keep pushing more of their young, cost-controlled players into the forefront of their lineup.

Pete Carroll must invest snaps in the back end of the roster on players that have a future with this team.  

This is an area where the Seahawks have not exploited their cap assets for maximum benefit in the last few seasons.  The roster has been littered with cheap talent that was sat on the sidelines in favor of vastly more expensive veteran signings that provided only marginally greater value.

For instance, last season the Seahawks frequently played Benson Mayowa ($4.6m cap hit) in favor of Alton Robinson ($0.867m cap hit) and yet they produced nearly the same results.

Marquise Blair was limited to a very spotty role in favor of Jamal Adams.

Colby Parkinson’s post-injury rookie year was practically non-existent due to Luke Willson being active for a few snaps on gameday in 2020.  He was then only targeted eight times last year.

Cody Barton was drafted to ease the workload of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright.  That never materialized.

We are seeing the impact of these choices now.  

Robinson is still not fully known as a player in his third year, Blair tried and failed to convert into a nickel corner, Parkinson is just now displaying his skillset and has been a very nice addition to the tight end group in his third season and the team is discovering that Barton is a disaster in a role that requires much, much more than the spot start and mop-up duty they have given him in prior seasons.

It is up to this organization to commit to the future right now.  They have several players on the roster who could develop into real 2023 contributors given some snaps this year:

On offense:  Colby Parkinson, Phil Haynes, Dee Eskridge, Ken Walker

2023 is Parkinson’s last year of his rookie contract.  What a blessing that could be to the team if he could keep expanding his role and then give them 30-40 catches and 4-7 touchdowns at $1.17 million in 2023.  

Haynes is an unrestricted free agent next year.  The Seahawks thought enough of him to tender him at $2.5 million and he has some potential at both guard spots.  The obvious expensive veteran blocking him is Gabe Jackson.  Why not put Damien Lewis in Jackson’s spot and give Phil Haynes the left guard job and see what they can do with that setup?  Are they really getting so much more bang for their buck with Jackson in?  He does not have a future with Seattle beyond 2023, probably not even beyond 2022.

Eskridge has the same number of touches as Marquise Goodwin so far this year.  Why?  He is under contract through 2024 and Goodwin is not.  There is no argument – Eskridge should be getting more touches right now.  Yes, he appears brittle but that is exactly why you have Goodwin on the roster – to cover that possibility, not to block Eskridge’s development.

Ken Walker has 21 touches through 3 games.  Seven touches per game is not nearly enough for this team to make a confident decision about his impact and whether they should invest significant money in the 27-year-old Rashaad Penny in 2023.  I know it is early.  But given this team’s track record, time’s a-wasting.

On defense:  Ryan Neal, Coby Bryant at outside CB, Tre Brown and Alton Robinson

Ryan Neal has been a great utility player at the defensive back position and on special teams for the Seahawks.  They now have 13 games to see what he can do at the starting strong safety spot.  He is a Restricted Free Agent in 2023, so the team has control of him.  However, as an undrafted player, they get no compensation if another team offers Neal a contract the Seahawks do not want to match.  If they want to retain him, they may have to offer him enough money to scare other teams off.  Therefore, they need to determine right now if he can be worth it as more than a rotational player.  Why would they need to consider using him as a starter at strong safety in 2023?  You know why.

Coby Bryant has worked at nickel with Justin Coleman injured.  If they get Coleman back soon, could they get a look at Bryant at his natural LCB spot?  They might be hindering his development by trying him out at nickel after featuring mostly at LCB in his college career and working at his natural position extensively in training camp.

Brown and Robinson will need looks this year if and when they come off injured reserve.  The Seahawks will no doubt be cautious with them but they need to get on the field and show what they can do.  

Imagine the Seahawks going into 2023 with full confidence in Woolen, Brown, and Bryant?  Maybe Michael Jackson too.

Or having Robinson, Mafe, Taylor and Nwosu up to speed on the edges so they can focus precious resources on acquiring an inside pass rusher.

None of these players are being blocked by outstanding talents ahead of them on the roster.  They all have skills and traits the Seahawks like.

They are going to have to make some hard decisions this offseason.  Would it not be far easier to make some of those decisions if you have tried out your young players with enough actual game snaps to make the best evaluation you can?

This may require Pete Carroll to consider pausing his ‘Always Compete’ philosophy and giving players he might deem not immediately worthy more snaps and opportunities.  But there is a very strong argument to be made that a slight drop-off in quality temporarily could greatly benefit the team in the long run.  Like when they have a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract and have $60-80 million to spend in 2024 and will not need to flesh out the roster with expensive role players.

Areas where the Seahawks can pick up some cap space next year

There are some expensive veterans the Seahawks will need to take a hard look at and make some business decisions on this coming offseason.

The caveat being the team will take on some dead money for most and for all will need to replace that player on the roster.

Gabe Jackson has a $9.5 million cap hit.  $3 million of that is hitting their cap no matter what they do.  Picking up $6.5 million of cap room by cutting him seems a foregone conclusion given his age in 2023 (32), his play last year and so far this year and the fact that the Seahawks have options at his position between Damien Lewis, Jake Curhan and potentially Phil Haynes.  There is no deadline that would force a move before the league year starts.  They could assess their options in the free agent market and the draft and then decide.

Shelby Harris has a $12.27 milllion cap hit.  $3.27 million of that is hitting the cap no matter what they do.  There is $9 million of cap room available by cutting him.  They do have a bit of a deadline with Harris, as he has a $2 million roster bonus due March 22 – a week into free agency.  The Seahawks have options here.  They can make some other moves and see where they stand in the market before deciding on Harris.  Or they could negotiate him down.

Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson are in the same boat.  They would each cost the Seahawks about $2 million in dead cap to cut and would bring just under $4 million of cap room each.  Bryan Mone would bring about $2.79 million if cut with a $1 million cap hit.

Uchenna Nwosu is an interesting one to consider.  He has a big cap hit of $12.76 million next year.  They could cut or trade him and pick up $8.01 million of room but that seems unlikely given his excellent play so far.  They could go the other way and work out an extension if they see him as part of their long-term plans for the team.  There could be the opportunity to save say $2-4 million by spreading out the 2023 cap hit on such an extension.

Noah Fant has a $6.85 million cap hit as the Seahawks picked up his fifth-year option earlier this year.  It is all guaranteed salary – no dead cap money if they were to trade him.  If the Seahawks get a good look at Parkinson and Dissly continues his steadfast play, they could possibly deem Fant expendable and see what he could fetch in the trade market.  That would be a win-win as they could make fine use of the draft pick they get back and find all kinds of utility for that $6.85 million.  Or again, they could go the other way and extend him and realize some 2023 cap savings.

Quandre Diggs ($9.9 million savings / $8.2 million dead cap) and Will Dissly ($3.05 million savings / $6.2 million dead cap) seem like moot points at the moment, as they are firmly entrenched as part of the organization and culture in Seattle and would cost as much or more as they save.  Diggs will need to play much better to keep that conversation at bay though.

There is one more player we need to discuss in greater detail.  The elephant in the room.

We need to talk about Jamal Adams

How many times have we said or thought that in the past 2+ years?  This trade has been a pox on the franchise since it was announced.  

Where do the Seahawks currently stand on his contract?

He will have a cap hit of $18.11 million in 2023 between salary and accrued bonuses if they keep him on the roster with his contract intact.

There is $21.33 million of prorated bonus money that still needs to be accounted for if he is cut or traded this coming offseason.  On top of that, Adams has $2.56 million of salary that will guarantee on February 4, 2023.  It is guaranteed for injury, so unless Adams comes back from a torn quad this season (extremely unlikely), that money will be owed.

So that is a total of $23.89 million that would hit the cap if they cut him loose.

It is time to have the conversation.  The Seahawks need to be ready to move on from Jamal Adams.

He is incapable of staying healthy.  The last three seasons have ended prematurely due to serious injuries.  It appears to be getting worse.  This year, he could not get through one day of training camp before breaking his finger.  He could not get through one regular season game before tearing his quad.

What are the chances he stays healthy all year in 2023?  Very, very unlikely.  Will he even be fully recovered from his current injuries in time to play?

Cutting him with a $23.89 million dead cap next year is a painful hit.  Particularly when you consider they just swallowed $26 million on Russell Wilson this year.  With Wilson, they got a significant return in trade to soften the blow.  The only joy they would receive from cutting Adams is cleaning up their 2024 cap number.

But consider for a moment what is at stake if the Seahawks do not address his situation this coming offseason.  As a vested veteran, his $11 million salary for 2023 becomes guaranteed in Week One.  He could get injured again, spend most of the year in the trainer’s room, collecting his full salary and accruing that $18 million cap hit — and then the Seahawks would still have a remaining dead cap hit of $14.2 million in 2024 if they wanted to cut him then – making it a total sunk cost of $32.2 million.

Swallow $23.89 million now on your terms or take a chance you will need to swallow $32.2 million.

What is clear — the Seahawks need to address Adams’ contract before the start of the league year so they know what kind of space they have to work with.  

The options…

• Cut Adams outright.  That means all $23.89 million hits their cap in 2023 and they are clean going forward.  There is no cap saving in 2023.  In fact, that is about a $5.8 million extra hit on the cap, taking them to under $23 million of free spending room.  Doable — but that restricts your available room.
• Cut Adams with a June 1st designation.  This would split the dead cap between the next two years, with approximately $9.69 million hitting in 2023 and $14.2 million hitting in 2024.  This would open up $8.42 million for the team to spend in 2023 after June 1st.  They could use that money to better their 2023 team, or roll it into 2024 and use it to mitigate the damage of the $14.2 million dead cap.
• Contact Adams and initiate talks to renegotiate his contract.  Three seasons and three season-ending injuries at the very least warrants this approach.  The Seahawks would be foolhardy not to see the necessity of having the discussion.  They need to be prepared to part ways with Adams if they cannot get an equitable reduction in pay.

There is no way to really know how receptive Adams’ team would be to that discussion but there should be a fair possibility they can come to a compromise and reduce his 2023 cap hit sizably, which opens up more room to supplement the current roster and offers them protection in the high likelihood of another serious injury.

A trade is not a realistic option.  Adams will not be able to pass a physical until well into the summer and no team would want to give the Seahawks a draft pick for the privilege of taking on that massive contract for a player with his injury history.

Again, why are we talking about this now?

Adams is done for the season.  Only 15 snaps into his big extension.  It will be a hard pill to swallow, particularly when you consider the Seahawks could have had at least two or three rising young talents on the roster right now when they badly need them instead of a broken player who has provided very little benefit to the team in three seasons relative to the cost.

But laying out the options helps us to understand now – the Seahawks have some real decisions to make with this player.  The sooner we all grasp that, the better equipped we will be to understand the issues this team is facing in 2023.

This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams

Coming into the season, I really had only three main hopes for the Seahawks.

I wanted to see a foundation built through the young, new offensive line. I wanted to see the running game be consistent and productive. I wanted the defense to function and look like a unit that could be a strength going forward.

So far, we’re seeing positive signs with the O-line. The running game has been more miss than hit so far but hopefully the Detroit game is a sign of progress. The defense, however, has been an abomination.

I think there are two key problems.

Firstly — the scheme. As noted a few times over the last couple of weeks, it feels like a ‘Frankenstein’s Monster’ of ideas. You’ve got Clint Hurtt and Sean Desai and their background with Vic Fangio. And you’ve got Pete Carroll.

Increasingly it looks like a jumbled collection of compromises rather than a clear, focused plan. This isn’t a new thing under Carroll. Think back to when he basically ran the offense with Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. Or last year when he retained Mike Solari despite appointing an offensive coordinator with a totally different blocking philosophy.

I’m sure there are examples where collaboration has worked and presumably that’s why Carroll dabbles in it. At the moment, however, it feels like the Seahawks would be better off with their Head Coach either just relinquishing control and letting Hurtt and Desai get on with the job, or he should insist on returning to his tried and trusted scheme and just get on with it.

The problem is — if he does that, it means training camp was virtually a waste of time learning the tweaks and changes. Plus, there’s barely any point having Hurtt and Desai in their roles if they’re going to be made to run another man’s scheme.

On the other hand, the current setup is destroying the production and form of players such as Darrell Taylor and Poona Ford — people they need to be performing. The linebackers are a walking disaster zone. Nothing is working.

Personally I think they have to resort to the Carroll defense. If nothing else — putting Taylor back at SAM/LEO as a kind of situational rusher will at least, hopefully, get him back on track. It’ll help Ford. They don’t have a Carlos Dunlap type any more which is an issue. It just feels like this simplified defense might make for fewer glaring errors.

The second problem is talent.

It’s not that the Seahawks are awful everywhere. They just don’t have any blue-chip studs or game-wreckers. They have young, unproven players and average (or worse) people on defense.

None of their defensive tackles create consistent interior pressure. None of their edge rushers are even at the level of a Frank Clark in 2018. Nobody on that D-line scares opponents, draws protection or can win consistently 1v1.

At cornerback — it’s great that Tariq Woolen has started well and there are rightly high hopes for the future. At the moment though, he’s a rookie. And the player across from him is Michael Jackson — or a collection of other no-name types. The Seahawks don’t have a top-tier corner they can currently rely on to shut down key opponents.

Josh Jones has been a liability and Quandre Diggs is a solid but unspectacular free safety and always has been.

The less said about the linebackers the better.

Most people can see the talent problem and increasingly it’s being suggested that with four picks in the first two rounds next year, Seattle’s draft focus should be defense, not quarterback.

That would be a huge, glaring error.

Firstly, as noted yesterday, it’s about the players actually available in this draft. Currently it’s really hard to find legit top-10 or first round picks, especially on defense. At quarterback — there are at least three (maybe four) players who legitimately can be graded high.

You can only play the hand you’re dealt. In the 2023 draft — it’s stacked up to go and get your quarterback of the future. That’s what the draft is offering you.

Besides — as well as Geno Smith is playing this year — he is not the future in Seattle. He is the present.

There’s only really Will Anderson who fits the bill as a legit top-10 pick and potential game-wrecker. I wish I could provide more names. It would make my life easier, writing a Seahawks Draft Blog, if the 2023 draft was loaded with blue-chippers.

Sadly — it isn’t.

Jalen Carter — often projected to the top-10 — has zero sacks and zero TFL’s in five games for Georgia. He is a solid defensive tackle worthy of the second half of round one but he’s not going to wreck games from the interior.

Bryan Bresee — who I really rate — is extremely agile and athletic for his size. He has the best chance, I think, of elevating into the top-10. However, he’s missed games recently after a family tragedy and when he has played, he has again looked more of a really solid defensive tackle rather than someone who is going to consistently collapse a pocket.

Michigan cornerback DJ Turner flashes talent but is rarely tested. It’s the same story for Georgia’s Kelee Ringo.

Mazi Smith — the top name on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ is having a good year but is more of an athletic nose than an impact three-technique.

I think Clemson pass rusher Myles Murphy is a bit overrated but admittedly — he looked quicker than last year in the game against NC State and had an impact. I will continue to monitor him. His team mate K.J. Henry might be better. I also want to watch more of Michigan’s Mike Morris.

I really like Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson but is he more of an athlete at this point best served in a blitz-heavy scheme than someone you want to lock down the middle of the field and play with consistency and discipline?

At the moment there’s no obvious Micah Parsons type in this class. No Devin White. Not even a Jamal Adams.

Unfortunately, it’s not going to be much easier to find solutions in free agency. Assuming the likes of Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, Jessie Bates and Da’Ron Payne are out of reach or franchised, there aren’t a ton of viable options set to reach the open market.

And please — no more big trades for veteran players.

It’s going to be up to Seattle to develop the players they’ve got, make intelligent additions and draft well. There are no quick fixes here.

The good news is that, like the 2022 draft, this looks like a class that is light at the top but could have some depth going into days two and three.

One player I really like and mentioned over the summer is Louisville linebacker Monty Montgomery. He’s tough, impactful, loves a hit and has started to come along after a slow start to the season with four TFL’s, two sacks and an interception. He won’t be a high pick but he’s someone to monitor with eventual starting potential at the next level. Nobody talks about him — which is fine. Let him fly under the radar. I get the feeling teams will love his play.

Players keep flashing at safety when I’m doing the quarterback scouting. Utah State’s Michigan transfer Hunter Reynolds plays fast and quick and can hit. John Torchio was a rare bright spot for Wisconsin in a miserable game against Ohio State — playing with range, physicality and making a great interception.

Georgia’s Christopher Smith is an easy player to like. He plays with instinct and toughness. Tulane’s Larry Brooks is a serious player who again might not be a high pick but he has something about him.

There’s also Jalen Catalon at Arkansas who has drifted off the radar as he’s collected injuries but he could provide great value next year.

At defensive tackle — I don’t think there’s a huge drop-off from the names being touted early in round one and Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton. Off the edge — Florida State’s Jared Verse has made a great start after transferring from Albany. I want to see him test but the early results are good.

The key is going to be continuing to find diamonds as they did this year with Woolen and Abraham Lucas. They are going to need to repeat the work of the early 2010’s where they get supreme talent in unpredictable ways. A clever trade, a day two or three draft pick. I don’t see the alternative options. I wish it was easier to say — ‘draft these two players’ and the problem would be fixed.

The draft depth stretches onto offense too.

I spent part of yesterday studying Zay Flowers, the receiver at Boston College. He’s electrifying and could make a great (and needed) WR3. West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton can be inconsistent but he has an exceptional size/speed combo. Jake Bobo was incredibly impressive for UCLA against Washington last week and has deceptive quickness and good size.

Receiver looks to be a position of strength with the likes of Jaxon Smith-Njibga and Jordan Addison likely to go early. I like TCU’s Quentin Johnson too despite his quiet start to 2022.

We might not see the best of Seattle’s O-line until they go ‘full Rams’. LA created a productive zone-blocking line by using converted tackles to play guard. The Seahawks are still using heavier, power-blocking guards. If they pivot to try and get their answer to Austin Corbett and David Edwards — they might look at someone like Zion Nelson at Miami or Jaelyn Duncan at Maryland.

It’s also worth noting that LA’s Edwards is a free agent in 2023.

There are high quality running backs available. Bijon Robinson of Texas and Jahmyr Gibbs of Alabama could both go in the top-15. Yet UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet and Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez could provide great value later on.

The opportunities to get talent/depth are very evident — but the options early in round one could be limited. That’s why it might be better to position yourself to get your guy at quarterback — while you have the opportunity to do so — then take advantage of the depth later.

There is going to be a big rush to get at Will Levis — due to his experience in a pro-style system, the incredible athletic traits, character and the way he is battling adversity and succeeding at Kentucky. The Seahawks are one of the teams able to make a big move due to their 2023 stock. If it’s simply not possible to get to Levis — they could (and should) pivot to the other options who might need more time to develop — with Geno Smith (so far) proving to be a viable go-between.

This is going to be a process without easy solutions on defense. Drafting well on days two and three and developing what you have will be the key.

That is why it’s imperative they sort things out pronto this year. They need to be adding and building in the off-season — not tearing things down and starting from scratch.

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Time for the QB notes from week five.

Before we get started though, I wanted to briefly return to a topic I discussed last week about the broader 2023 draft class.

Every week I keep adding names of players to my watch-list. Players who stand out and warrant another look down the line. What I’m struggling to find, however, are players who deserve to be considered early first round prospects.

I do think this needs to be highlighted. I appreciate that currently Seattle’s defense is an abomination and Geno Smith is playing well. However, finding blue-chip defenders as an alternative to drafting a quarterback in 2023 is going to be incredibly difficult. Aside from Alabama’s Will Anderson, I just don’t think they’re there.

On the other hand, there are quarterbacks that warrant consideration early in round one. With two first rounders and two second rounders in 2023 — the Seahawks have the potential to be aggressive if they want to be.

Some of the defensive players being touted as top-10 picks, I just can’t see it. Take Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. He’s a good player. He isn’t a game-wrecker though.

So far, in Georgia’s five games, he has:

0 sacks
0 TFL’s
4 tackles
1 Pass break-up

I think he’s a very capable interior presence you should consider in the second half of round one as a steady, controlling lineman. But he isn’t Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh or even Quinnen Williams.

Increasingly as this college season develops I’m starting to think the 2023 draft will be similar to 2022. There will be a dearth of legit top-10 players but a reasonable amount of depth overall as you go into days 2-3.

What you do have, that we didn’t see this year, are a handful of quarterback prospects you can invest in and have faith in to be an answer. Plus Will Anderson as a blue-chip pass rusher.

Geno Smith turns 32 in seven days and while he admittedly is the man for the present, I don’t think many people see him as the man for the long-term future. Drafting a quarterback has to remain Seattle’s priority.

I’ll have an article on Seattle’s defensive struggles — and how they might be able to fix them — later this week.

DTR proves he’s underrated, reality bites for Penix Jr

Friday’s game between Washington and UCLA validated something that we’ve been pretty consistent with on SDB. The hype surrounding Michael Penix Jr went too far and Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains underrated.

Firstly, Penix Jr.

There’s no doubt that he’s been a fun player to watch so far. I’ve now watched Washington twice and it’s clear they made a good decision in appointing Kalen DeBoer. That said, we also have to embrace what DeBoer brings to UW.

His system is going to produce. It’s wide open, well crafted, multi-faceted and does a lot of the heavy lifting for quarterbacks. It’s why Jake Haener was able to throw for +4000 yards last year at Fresno State.

I would imagine that for as long as DeBoer is with the Huskies, they’ll have a productive quarterback. Offensive production will never be a problem. The key to them having eventual success will be putting a complementary defense on the field that is good enough to really challenge.

Penix Jr picked UW because he worked with DeBoer at Indiana. He knew the scheme and therefore, it’s no big surprise he started the season well against some bad opponents (including Michigan State’s ridiculously awful pass defense which remains among the worst in all of college football).

Yet every week I was getting more and more messages about Penix Jr, with people increasingly touting him as a legit NFL prospect. I hope this UCLA game will add a bit of perspective to the discussion moving forward.

For starters — I wasn’t aware that when Penix Jr was sacked in the second quarter of this game, it was the first sack he’d suffered all season. That’s remarkable, when you consider Will Levis has been sacked 18 times in five games. It took until mid-way through Penix Jr’s fifth game to receive any serious pressure.

It speaks to the environment he’s come into.

The scheme requires very little from its quarterback other than to execute. Everything is set up for him, he receives his instructions from the sideline and very rarely does he ever progress to a second read. He does do it — and did it for a touchdown in this game, coming off his intended target and throwing to a wide open receiver in the end zone. Yet more often than not it’s a case of snap, do what you’re told to do and the well-crafted offense will sort things out for you.

As a consequence, when things go wrong, you have to be able to adjust and improvise. In this game, Penix Jr could not. He threw two horrible interceptions as a consequence.

The first came with 8:08 left in the second quarter. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the play. The little bit of pressure means he can’t step into his throw so he’s flat-footed on release. The pass has no mustard on it and was an easy takeaway.

On the very next play, DTR throws a touchdown for UCLA — rubbing salt into the wound.

His second interception again happened when Penix Jr stared down his intended target. The defender is watching him all the way. It’s a slightly later throw and completely telegraphed. Easy pickings.

At one point Andre Ware, who was commentating, congratulated Penix Jr for throwing accurately into triple coverage. For me it just highlighted the problem. If the scheme tells Penix Jr to go to this receiver, he will do. Regardless if it’s triple coverage. And sure — it looks nice when it comes off. Try doing that in the NFL though.

Even at the college level, you need to be able to come off that look and make progressions to find the better option. In the NFL you don’t get to look at three arts-and-crafts boards being held up on the sideline giving you instructions on everything to do.

Aside from all of this, I thought Penix Jr just looked mostly unspectacular. When the easy, well-designed plays weren’t there — there were inaccurate passes to go with the nicely thrown balls. His throwing motion is elongated and problematic. He’s not particularly elusive or dynamic as a runner.

And that’s before we go into his injury history which is extensive.

I don’t want to piss on anyone’s bonfire here. Washington are much more fun to watch than they’ve been in years. Kalen DeBoer gives the team hope for the future. But Penix Jr should generally be an afterthought for the draft. And that’ll largely be the case throughout this year, even as he continues to put up big numbers in this uber-friendly quarterback system.

Thompson-Robinson also receives a lot of the same benefits. His scheme doesn’t demand too much from him. He doesn’t need to progress through numerous reads. In this game, he also benefitted from the brilliance of Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo’s knack of getting open.

That said, he just executed better. When key conversions were needed, he delivered. He was accurate and decisive. He didn’t give Washington a sniff of a turnover. He also provided much more of a threat as a runner — including one electrifying hurdle over a defender.

I’ve liked DTR for a long time. I appreciate he doesn’t have the traits of the bigger name QB’s eligible for 2023 and as a consequence, his stock will be somewhat limited. By all accounts he’s probably looking at round four as a ceiling. I still think he has a playmaking quality that many other players — who get a lot more publicity — simply don’t possess. If you need more convincing, check out his 68-yard touchdown scramble against Bowling Green.

He deserves more attention than he gets.

Same old story for Kentucky’s O-line

In many ways, Will Levis should probably be grateful. His offensive line is giving NFL scouts a good look at how he battles adversity week-to-week.

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young can only dream of such an environment.

I’m only half-joking. Part of the problem with analysing quarterbacks at Ohio State and Alabama is the sheer mismatch in talent they benefit from, playing for the teams they play for. Then you throw in how much the Ohio State system holds Stroud’s hand and it creates an extra layer of suspicion.

Then you watch Levis. He takes snaps under center. He reads the defense without needing to look at cards on the sideline or hand signals. He’s playing in a pro-style offense.

And he’s getting hammered every week.

It’s like he’s already in the league.

Levis was sacked three more times against Ole Miss in a game Kentucky should’ve won. One of those sacks was a safety that led to his finger being broken or dislocated on his non-throwing hand. The third sack led to a fumble that ended the game.

He’s now been sacked 18 times in five games.

The Wildcats also surrendered nine TFL’s in this game alone.

Yet, as mentioned, they still should’ve won.

The kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in a three-point loss. They were all set to score on a brilliant kick-return, until the runner was tripped up by a team mate.

Levis had another fumble in the game on a QB-keeper where a defender lowered his head and levelled him at the crown of his helmet. They didn’t even review whether it was targeting.

The quarterback himself wasn’t blameless. The sequence at the end was a bit of a mess. A potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because Levis rushed the play in the red zone with less than a minute to go. He spotted a 1v1 matchup he wanted, rushed to get the snap off and a different receiver wasn’t lined up properly. False start (called an illegal shift). It was a shame — his fade pass was caught well and he ID’d the right situation, he just needed to let everyone get set.

Overall though, I saw enough in this game to feel comfortable with my projection as Levis as a high pick, perhaps even the highest in 2023.

He moved the ball well at the end with some top-level pro-throws and processing. When he had time in the pocket, he was surgical. Indeed the way he commands this pro-style offense, makes reads and goes through progressions is a world apart from any other draft-eligible quarterback.

Increasingly I think Levis is going to be the guy teams want. I think there’s going to be a real clamour for him at the top of round one, with teams believing he is best equipped to start early. He is the best combination of pro-style experience, extreme athletic and physical traits, character and performance.

The fact he’s doing what he’s doing with a non-ideal supporting cast too — which is likely what he’ll get early in his NFL career if he’s a high pick — is another feather in his cap.

Bryce Young injures his shoulder

It was a really strange sequence that led to the injury. Young was on the field, seemingly OK, threw a standard pass and immediately his arm went limp. He left the field, threw his helmet to the ground in frustration and entered the medical tent.

Young’s reaction was alarming — it was as if he knew something serious had happened.

Yet later in the game he was back on the sideline, all smiles, cheering his team mates on. He was only considered ‘questionable’ to return — suggesting it wasn’t a serious problem. And yet how many non-serious injuries leave your arm limp?

TV footage also showed an earlier play where he was tackled, and briefly clutched at his shoulder.

Gary Danielson, commentating for CBS, said the following:

“I tore my rotator cuff on a play exactly like that. You don’t know it’s hurt until your next throw.”

Details on Young’s injury are limited at the moment. It does speak, however, to some of the concerns relating to his NFL future.

Despite being listed at 6-0 and 194lbs by Alabama, it’s well established by now that this isn’t accurate. As Todd McShay noted last week, he’s been measured by NFL people at a shade above 5-10 and around the 185lbs mark.

At Alabama, Young faces very little adversity. He plays behind a bunch of all-star offensive linemen who typically overmatch opponents and he’s supported by 5-star talent at the skill positions. Unlike Will Levis — he rarely faces a battering in the pocket. He doesn’t take a lot of damage.

At the next level, he won’t have that luxury. He’s going to get hit. He’s going to be moving around a lot more. Can a player who is this small last the distance? Because there simply isn’t anyone his size doing it in the league.

Young is a good player but there’s no getting away from the fact this is a question NFL teams will have to ask ahead of the 2023 draft.

In terms of what he showed against Arkansas, his first drive ended with an interception. The receiver was hit in his route and it prevented him from being in the right place at the right time. The ball hit his fingertips and deflected straight to a defender.

Alabama were messy to start. One of the receivers had a horrendous drop to start the second series. Then Young fumbled a snap, nearly leading to a turnover. He then threw wild and high on a pass into the flat. But, with this being Alabama, he then hit a slot receiver down the middle who simply out-ran everyone for an easy touchdown.

His next touchdown was a similar cakewalk. A receiver released downfield and was so wide open, it’s as if he was fielding a punt. Young executed the pass to set up a walk-in touchdown on the next play for the quarterback.

On the play where he scrambled to initially possibly injure his shoulder — he had no reason to bail on the pocket. He scrambled his way into bother by running towards the sideline, just because Arkansas blitzed. The protection was fine and yet he bailed on the pocket. He has a tendency to do this — probably because of his height. One of his egregious interceptions earlier this season came on an unnecessary scramble, followed by an ugly heave downfield.

The talent is there. It’s a quandary projecting a 5-10 (ish), 185lbs quarterback to the next level though. That’s just the reality.

As for his opposite number in this game — K.J. Jefferson — I’ve never felt particularly excited about his pro-potential and nothing about this game changed that. I just think he’s limited in terms of mobility and processing. He has the arm to make some pretty throws at times but I’ve never once watched him and felt like I was watching an eventual NFL starter.

C.J. Stroud has another one of ‘those’ games

I want to love Stroud but I simply can’t go there. He has too many games like this where he’s just off.

Stroud is capable of throwing the most impressive passes I’ve seen at the college level, since I started this blog in 2008. I keep saying this.

Yet too often this is offset by the basics just not being good enough. Intermediate accuracy, timing, making the right reads.

And then there are plays like this:

Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀

CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM

pic.twitter.com/5SNbkFmOJv

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022

What on earth is that?

What is he seeing?

He has one receiver, blanketed by four defenders. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the pass. He should never, ever attempt that throw. He tries to fit it in there anyway and quite deservedly, is picked off.

That is just rubbish, I’m afraid. It speaks to a player who has his reads made for him at the LOS, perhaps trusts his arm too much and doesn’t have the ability to sense the obvious danger there, come away from his target and do something else.

He finished 13/22 for 154 yards, two touchdowns and the pick.

His first score was an easy seam throw thanks to the massive separation from the receiver. His second was a simple red zone slant.

Ohio State leaned on their running game in this one and dominated, so Stroud’s iffy game didn’t matter. Yet all a performance like this does is validate some of the concerns I’ve voiced in the past. Not just about Stroud — but about quarterbacks from Ohio State in general.

You can have all the talent in the world. If your college experience is to play with 5-star players on your O-line and skill positions, have your reads made for you to the point you’re told what to do — and all you have to do is execute — how is this preparation for the next level?

A consistent run of Ohio State QB’s — some very high picks with a lot of physical talent — have come into the league and they just haven’t been able to adjust to life outside of the comfortable college bubble they play within.

Stroud is more talented than Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Cardale Jones and others. But it’s impossible not to have some concern about his ability to fair any better at the next level. I think he’s going to need time — possibly even a redshirt year — to really get to grips with the challenge he’s going to face. The extreme arm talent could get him through some growing pains — but we’ve also seen that sometimes, it isn’t enough.

I’m not sure what to make of Max Duggan

What is he? He’s playing very well. But he also lost his job at TCU and is only starting now because the other QB injured his knee in the opening game.

His first touchdown for TCU against Oklahoma was a complete duck — thrown too high, with a wobbly spiral that hung in the air for an age. The receiver did a good job tracking it to complete the catch. At the next level, it would’ve been batted down at best — picked off at worst.

For Duggan’s second score, it’s a complete busted coverage and the receiver is stood downfield completely on his own.

Admittedly his third touchdown — a 67-yard run — was impressive. And he can run — no doubt about it. He gets the legs pumping and he can move. He’s a strong straight-line runner rather than an exciting, elusive pressure avoider.

He had another strong run later in the game and threw some nice passes over the middle with ample velocity. Duggan had another long coverage-bust touchdown before running in a final TD.

I can’t get a feel for his upside and some of these scores were classic Big-12 (bad defense). I’ll continue to monitor him.

Yep, I still can’t quit Anthony Richardson

The physical upside is completely off the charts and he continues to show enough technical quality to want to believe in him — warts and all. It might take two years of pain in the NFL but the end-game could be an elite quarterback.

I appreciate he was only facing Eastern Washington on Sunday but here’s how his day started.

On Florida’s first offensive snap, Richardson throws it from his own 18-yard line with minimal effort, reaching a receiver at Eastern Washington’s 25-yard line. It was freakishly easy for him to lob the ball that far. Big touchdown.

Then on their second offensive snap, he dodges and weaves through defenders on a 45-yard scramble.

Later, Richardson threw an incredible pass to the right sideline with a defender clinging onto his ankles. Somehow he stayed on his feet and armed it out to the sideline with velocity and accuracy.

His second touchdown was a beautiful loft following play-action. Lovely touch on the pass to drop it in over the defender.

I appreciate there are also problems to acknowledge. He had an interception that was a lazy lob downfield, underthrown into good coverage. It’s a big mistake and he should never have thrown that pass. I think he got too comfortable with the score being 35-3 and thought he’d throw it anyway.

And that’s part of the issue. He has a lack of playing time and he’s going to have to work through some issues.

But again — so did Josh Allen. So did Patrick Mahomes. So did Lamar Jackson.

I would put him in the Allen-level range as a physical freak of nature who needs to work on the technical side of the game, cut out mistakes and then the world’s his oyster.

Richardson’s physical talent is that good. It doesn’t mean he’ll deliver on his potential because the game requires more than just physical traits. Yet he has so much to offer — I can’t help but secretly hope the Seahawks will draft and develop him because he definitely could be a star in the making.

If they win too many games to be in the hunt for Levis, Stroud and maybe even Young — it wouldn’t be the worst situation to select Richardson with the objective of developing him, creating the chance to use your other high picks to address other areas of the team.

That plan would only be feasible, however, if Richardson turns pro. That’s unclear given his inconsistent start to the season.

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