Problems for Tua (and everyone else)
Something starting bubbling in the media last week.
That’s a big deal. Tagovailoa has a serious and uncommon sports injury. He needs to be thoroughly checked before you commit $30m in guarantees and the future of your franchise to him.
Finally, Lance Zierlein projected Miami will trade up to #1 to select Joe Burrow in his latest mock draft.
There was always going to be a leap of faith involved in drafting Tua. Now it’s a blindfolded leap over a lake full of alligators.
Having spent big in free agency and with two more first round picks next year, Miami preferring to move up for the safer option of Joe Burrow would make a lot of sense.
Of course, there’s no chance Cincinnati would agree to it. Even if Burrow insisted he wont play for the Bengals — they’re the last franchise who would cave. They’d stubbornly draft him even if he said he’d sit out the whole year and re-enter the draft in 2021.
Even so — it wouldn’t be a shock if Miami is trying to create some media momentum here.
What does this also tell us? Don’t be surprised if Tua suffers a fall. There’s too much of an unknown and if teams can’t do any proper medical checks before the draft, it’ll be a concern.
This could also be an issue for several players. Either those with injuries or those who couldn’t test at the combine. Teams have incomplete profiles on so many players. Those who actually did everything at the combine might get a boost.
Insider draft notes
Every year Bob McGinn publishes a series of articles that provide an insider view on certain draft prospects. Last week he posted notes on 50 players. You can read the articles in full here (defense, offense) but you’ll need to be signed up to the Athletic.
It was a reassuring read overall with the league insiders sharing many of the same thoughts we’ve discussed.
Here’s a section of the piece:
He’s the definition of grit and determination and even though he’s undersized — it doesn’t really matter. You can win with him. He’s so explosive, so tough, so athletic. He plays beyond his frame in the same way Maurice Jones-Drew did. The other name that springs to mind watching him — and I’m deadly serious about this — is Barry Sanders. I’m not for a second suggesting he will get anywhere close to Sanders’ NFL career. However, they do share similar qualities, physical profiles (Sanders played at 5-8 and 203lbs and had similar testing numbers) and there are ‘Sanders-esque’ flashes on tape.
When you make a comparison to Barry Sanders you’re always going out on a limb. However, here’s what McGinn’s anonymous league sources had to say:
“He’s my favorite back to watch,” one scout said. “He’s the best receiver of all of them. They killed people on that Texas route. He’s so quick. Natural hands.” He was regarded as a poor man’s Barry Sanders by another scout. A third said he was reminiscent of Maurice Jones-Drew. He ran the 40 in just 4.59 seconds but posted a vertical of 39 1/2 inches. “Short, rocked-up, strong, really good balance, can be elusive,” said one scout. “He’s not 4.3 but he’s fast enough.” He also returned kickoffs for three years, averaging 21.9 yards per return. “Against Nick Saban’s defense, he scored four touchdowns,” said another scout. “The guy is totally amazing. When he’s in traffic, they can’t find the guy. If he was taller, he’d probably be the best back. I’ve got absolutely no negatives except his height. He pass blocks. He returns kickoffs. They put him out (wide) and he runs routes.”
I firmly believe Edwards-Helaire, based on pure talent, is a top-20 player in this class. Whoever takes him is going to get a steal because he won’t go that early. If you want a physical tone-setter who will energise your sideline, create big plays, can do it all in the running game and provide possibly the best and most consistent receiving threat at the position we’ve seen in years — this is your guy. All you’ve got to do is believe and look beyond the height.
It was good to see McGinn’s sources validate that view. I don’t think the Seahawks will draft Edwards-Helaire because of their size preferences and greater needs at other positions. Yet his physical style and pass-catching ability would be a fantastic addition to the offense and he’d be a terrific hedge against Chris Carson’s contract situation and Rashaad Penny’s injury. I suspect it’s more likely they’ll wait and see if a player like Cam Akers is available later on or merely add a free agent at some point.
The scouts are also very positive about three other runners:
D’Andre Swift:
“Special in the passing game… Not just good. Special. And he’s a really good runner, too. He’s a really well-rounded player.”
Jonathan Taylor (who I think will go in the top-20):
“Don’t let the 40 make it seem like he was invented… He’s a good runner. Knows how to run and set up his blocks. Finds the right hole. Runs hard.”
J.K. Dobbins:
“Justin Fields got all the honours but, if they don’t have Dobbins, Justin Fields is nothing to me.”
This is a good running back class.
One of the weirdest things about this draft season has been the analysis of the top offensive linemen. For me, Andrew Thomas has always been #1. It’s not even really that close. Some of the criticism has been weird at times — such as Daniel Jeremiah calling him a guard and questioning his balance (which seems excellent to me).
McGinn’s scouting sources tend to agree:
“There’s not one negative about him,” one scout said. “He’s my third-best player in the draft. The guy’s just special, and he’s big, too. There’s a big difference between him and the rest. He’s more like (Jonathan) Ogden than (Walter) Jones or (Willie) Roaf. He’s not as good an athlete as Jones or Roaf. He’s tougher than both those guys were. He doesn’t have Ogden’s height.” He ran 5.17 seconds. “In any other year you’d say, ‘5.22 at 315, that’s killer,’” another scout said. “He’s patient. He redirects. He positions easily in the run game and stays on players. Light on his feet.”
I’ve equally thought Jedrick Wills was a bit overrated. To me he looks like an explosive, useful interior lineman — not the brilliant tackle many have him pitched at. Here’s McGinn’s sources:
“Jonah Williams is an all-star compared to this guy,” he said. “Awful. He’s upright. He’s a stiff guy.” He ran 5.06 seconds. “I’m not crazy about him but people love him,” said a third scout. “Every time I watched him, I didn’t see a really good athlete. Worked out well. I just don’t see the movement, finish, talent of a first-rounder. I do not think he could play left tackle.”
We’ve also spent a lot of time talking up Isaiah Wilson as a first round pick despite contrasting views elsewhere. Here’s Wilson’s blurb:
“He is one tough, nasty guy,” one scout said. “He’s the right tackle but I guess you could play him on the left and get by. He needs to learn to use his hands more. He’s strong and really nasty.” He ran the slowest 40 of the top linemen at 5.37 seconds. His arms measured 35 1/2 inches. “I think people are asleep on him,” a second scout said. “He could play on the left side. He’s enormous. He’s just not as clean of a package as Thomas. Thomas is a cleaner kid. But there’s film of Wilson where he looks every bit as good as Thomas.”
One of the reasons Seattle has been pro-active adding free agent offensive linemen is probably because players like Wilson might not last until pick #27. People assume he will. There’s no guarantee. He’s a really good prospect and the league is desperate for O-liners.
McGinn’s sources are also very positive about Jalen Reagor…
“Holy (cow), he’s exciting… He was one of the guys I got most excited about. He’s an explosive playmaker.”
… and Brandon Aiyuk…
“Each game the guy improved. He’s much better than (N’Keal Harry) the guy last year that went in the first round. That guy was a jumper; this guy is a separator.”
These are the two receivers we’ve talked about the most. They’re both really good. It’ll be a shame if the Seahawks can’t consider either (if available) because they might have to focus on D-line additions.
On defense I thought there were some interesting validating notes too. One scout suggests Chase Young didn’t work out at the combine because he knew he wouldn’t run well (we’ve mentioned that a lot). Another scout is much higher on K’Lavon Chaisson than I am (“He’s not the biggest guy in the world, but his athleticism is freak level. He’s either a small rush end or a 3-4 outside guy“) but another suggests he’ll only go early because “there’s no-one else“.
I’ve never been a fan of A.J. Epenesa and while one scout suggests he’s very much a top-20 talent, another said he’d put him on an ‘all-overrated team’ and that he wouldn’t take him in the top-50 (I agree). I’ve voiced reservations about Yetur Gross-Matos (“Lacks that second effort, desire, toughness that you want to see. He’s an athlete, not a football player.”) and they list Grant Delpit as the only safety in the top-50 (I think Antoine Winfield Jr warrants consideration but Xavier McKinney — who’s often mocked in the top-20 — does not and is overrated).
Just so this isn’t too much of a back-patting session though, one scout calls Isaiah Simmons, “not a tough, physical football player. He’s not a hitter. Doesn’t break down well. I don’t get it. Down in and down out, he’s not a factor or a difference-maker.” Obviously I’ve voiced a very different opinion on Simmons.
Clowney waiting until camp?
According to Bob Condotta, some people wonder if Clowney could wait until training camp to find his new team.
So far they’ve lost Quinton Jefferson and signed Bruce Irvin. They appear to be trying to wait it out with Clowney. Who knows what the plan is beyond that because even with Clowney the pass rush would virtually be the same as a year ago when it was statistically one of the worst in the league.
Surely they won’t drag this out for months?
Seattle’s inactivity on the D-line remains confounding.
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Hello Rob,
Thanks for the new article. If COVID-19 is causing you to stay inside and write more, then let’s just say I am pro virus! Curious, have you accidentally called Andrew Thomas by the name Andrew Taylor? It is in the sentence, “For me, Andrew Taylor has always been #1.”.
I want CEH.
Yes I did — I’ve edited it now.
I’m actually writing no more than usual. Although the UK is in lockdown I am classified as a ‘key worker’ as a BBC journalist. So I am working as normal, albeit temporarily on news instead of sport.
How can Anthony William Hall not realize that the world needs you full time on the Hawks? I mean, it’s not like the world’s coming to an end or anything.
Coming up next on the BBC, Rob Staton breaks down your top social distancing routes, followed up by scouting next season’s top vaccination destinations
😂
Yesterday I did a piece on people staying indoors and doing as they were told. Which was a relief.
I found that McGinn article really interesting. A lot of those takes line up with what you’ve been saying about guys. Lots of negative opinions about the defensive players. Also interesting reads are his articles about “what people we’re people saying about X prospect coming out”, gives a little perspective.
These game pass film video sessions are pretty good. This one with KJ has a couple interesting insights.
https://gamepass.nfl.com/video/kj-wright
It seems to me that many of the players over the years who are highlighted here at SDB, players at first lesser known or less regarded, climb the draft board. CEH won’t surprise me as an example of this.
Is the draft really going to go on as scheduled with situations like Tua? There’s also other players who haven’t been able to be checked medically or even participate in a Pro Day. So many unknowns outside of game tape, word from coaches, possible over the phone or video interviews. I know the NFL wants to keep things as close to normal as possible, but this situation is unprecedented.
The thing is — none of us know when this will end. If you delay it — when til?
It’s possible this situation will last for months. So you’ve kind of just got to do it and accept it.
“He’s more like (Jonathan) Ogden than (Walter) Jones or (Willie) Roaf. He’s not as good an athlete as Jones or Roaf. He’s tougher than both those guys were.”
That was such a great laugh. I really laughed. It’s just weird to hear someone say that a college player is tougher than a man that pain medications didn’t work on*, yet that same Hall of Fame player missed three more games from holding out (Six by him and one by the team.) than by injury, four, and another Hall of Fame player that lost half a year to injury once.
I know that you want to build up the hype around players, and comparing them to former great players is a good way to do so, but it amazes me how journalist’s will throw out such subjective information. Andrew Thomas is a player that I’d love to see on the Seahawks, but until he starts a 190 of 190 games (Walter Jones) or 192 of 192 games at the professional level, such opinions will get dismissed due to their hyperbole.
Thanks for everything, Rob.
Go Hawks.
I laughed as well. If I remember correctly, Jones was allergic to pain medicine. Plus, weren’t the four games he missed by injury in his last year when his knee was shot?
“If he was taller, he’d probably be the best back. I’ve got absolutely no negatives except his height.”
Sounds familiar… someone gonna get a steal.
Rob, I’m curious how you would compare/contrast Edwards-Helaire to McCaffrey coming out of school. I didn’t really get to watch much college football this year, but all the reviews always talk about what a weapon he is in the passing game as well as special teams.
Thanks as always for the great read!
Ah, excellent request. Very interested to hear a comparison.
He’s different to McCaffrey — more power and explosion than shifty quickness. McCaffrey ran sharp routes like a slot receiver. CEH is just very precise.
Forgive my ignorance here, but what is the problem with a shorter RB, comared to taller?
In fact, a shorter back would seem to have certain advantages in quickness and elusiveness (not to mention longevity).
It’s the one of the few positions on the field where being shorter could potentially be an advantage.
I’m just referring to the preference Seattle has shown under PCJS.
Lack of height when hiding behind linemen is good. Where it hurts you is in pass protection or the QB finding you downfield in traffic.
I was actually referring to this line in the above McGinn quote…
“If he was taller, he’d probably be the best back.” (in reference to CEH)
Though the pass receiving thing makes some sense, I would think that blocking with a lower center of gravity could actually help. Good technique and willingness seem more important to a RB being good in pass protection, than height.
Frame determines how much weight you can put on. A 5’8″ back is probably maxed out at 200-210 pounds of good weight before it starts to interfere with flexibility and agility. A 5’11” back maxes out around 225-235 (the Seattle sweet spot) before added muscle starts to impair flexibility and agility.
Assuming similar aggression, the shorter player might have more leverage, but the larger player will have more mass/momentum, and will move the pile more and will punish tacklers more.
There are durability concerns with smaller backs as well.
CEH reminds me more of Devonta Freeman moreso the others mentioned
Yeah, I ‘m really reluctant to buy into a comparison of Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Barry Sanders. Yes, they were roughly the same size. Sanders was very durable and CEH has also been so far. And that’s about where I’d end that comparison. Barry Sanders ran a 4.21 at his combine. CEH ran 4.6. Barry Sanders had the most incredible balance, field vision, change of direction, and acceleration that I’ve ever seen.
“ Barry Sanders had the most incredible balance, field vision, change of direction, and acceleration that I’ve ever seen.”
Agreed. One of the best and most thrilling athletes of all time, in any sport.
I think we have to assume that JS has a plan on defense and won’t enter the draft chasing a bad hand in a bad draft class for edge rushers. So we ought to use the strength of this draft and stock pile assets for RW while in his prime: I would love to add Ruiz (1st pick) and CEH (2nd pick) and Aiyuk (3rd pick)to start with and then build the offense more with Bryant at Te (4th pick) and round out the remaining picks with tough guys on the interior line like Stenburg, and others.
Go offense build around RW and trust JS that his plan to improve the d-line is going to happen.
Why should we assume that?
And will any plan be better than Ziggy Ansah + LJ Collier?
Lacy and Joeckel.
They learned from those mistakes, aggressively changed philosophy, coaching and personnel to re-establish their identity. Not seeing anything to indicate they learned from last year’s failure to fix the pass rush.
I’ve come to accept the mistakes that come with the magic, but need to see some evidence of a plan being executed. If it’s adding another 5 tech to the pile + Irvin, I might lose it.
I’m not sure they did learn from Lacy and Joeckel.
They signed a guy at the end of his career and helped Lacy confirm football wasn’t for him any more (then repeated the act with Ansah).
And now they’re signing former R1 OL busts Womack and Ogbuehi.
This worries me too. Are the just a hedge in case we can’t get a good OLineman in the draft? Seems like we wasted some money here. I hope these guys do well but honestly, I don’t see it. The games JS plays just baffles me sometimes and I just don’t get it.
That’s one of the most confusing parts of the off-season. They’ve zapped cap space padding out the OL depth and now limited their ability to spend on defensive linemen. So… is the plan to draft DL’s in a bad DL draft and avoid adding OL depth in a better OL draft than previous years?
So I just saw a local mock draft, shall remain nameless, that mocked K’Lavon Chaisson to us. Does he seem like a Barkavious Mingo type hyped player to you?
Yep. But less productive.
I was unclear.
After the Cable/Lacy/Joeckel fiasco, the FO made changes: fired Cable, hired Schotty/Solari, committed to Carson, drafted Penny, went with size/experience/value at OG. The moves seemed urgent and aggressive whether they work or not.
They’ve done nothing similar to fix the DL. Instead, they brought Irvin back.
Don’t look at Irvin in a vacuum. If they had gotten some additional FA for the DLine, the Irvin signing is not bad in and of itself. The problem at this point is that he is the ONLY signing at this point. He will be a good addition but we need stars on the DLine.
Hard to pay for “stars on the DLine” when your QB makes so much money. DE (along with LT and CB) make the most money of any positions.
You show me a team with multiple “stars” on the DL and I’ll show you a team with a sucky QB or one that is on a rookie contract.
San Francisco are paying multiple stars on defense and their quarterback and they were in the Super Bowl last season.
I agree with that.
I expected an active and aggressive fix. They’ve done the opposite.
absolutely get CEH. Of all the teams in the league, we are year in and year out fully dedicated to the run. Any heading into the season with Carson and Penny both being injured the last 2 years, I see the fit early. I get the higher needs, but if a special rb is sitting there in rd 2, I say go get him.
Completely agree with your opinion of the Bengals and that they would literally draft Burrow and make him sit a year rather than trade the pick away if refused to play for them. Mike Brown is terrible.
I’ve come around a bit about the RB position. Obviously, like you said, when our DL concerns remain at the Defcon 2 level, and our OL in need of some young talent infusion, it makes it hard to justify with our top 3 picks. I still lean toward a WR near the top of the draft board over a RB, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if they really took to a RB whom they felt would bolster our backfield for some years to come.
So hard to project the draft with our DL uncertainties.
So, if Tua falls…. could he possibly fall to 27, how about a nice draft pick trade down scenario?
When I read this I thought to myself…how about picking him ourselves, taking a total gamble on his health? If his health turns out positive, we could probably trade him next off season for some real draft gold.
No, this wouldn’t happen, just a fanciful thought that passed through my mind.
Yes, thinking the same thing. When a premier talent at the QB position falls, I think it has to be a consideration. It could be like an Aaron Rodgers scenario. In a year, with good health, and learning from Russell, he would be worth an immense haul of draft picks, or even a number of proven players in their prime. Why not make an investment like that?
If Clowney really intends (or even is willing) to hold out to camp, just go lock in Griffen. If Clowney comes back and wants to sign, then, sure, find a way. But you can’t subtract Clowney, QJeff, Ansah and Woods from a crap DL and only add Irvin having gone into the draft. They’d have to maneuver and draft perfectly, and even then you’d be relying on rookies and guys who’ve not definitively shown they’re ready to contribute to a championship run.
Getting Griffen locked isn’t going to solve all of the problems, but it’s one less position you’re desperate for in trades and the draft.
And that’s another confusing part of what’s happened. They don’t appear to be moving on. They’re just stuck in this stalemate of not being able to do anything until Clowney makes a decision. And we’re two weeks into FA now… so having got this far, why would Clowney now make a call before the draft?
Yet they aren’t moving on. We’re all sat here… looking at an even bleaker picture on the DL than a year ago wondering what the plan is.
One more thing about CEH how about 164 total yards against Clemson in the championship game how impressive is that. On 21 touchscreen.
And he took it to Alabama.
One more grasp at a straw…this is so baffling I’m wondering if JS has suffered an ‘invasion of the body snatchers’ style hijacking…
Could it be…are they so arrogant they could be playing chicken on multiple fronts?
1-not backing down from Clowney?
2-realizing they might be bidding against themselves for Ngakoue, and are content to wait until the draft (or after the draft to keep all their 2020 stock intact)?
3-somehow, someway, counting on some kind of “Clowney for a 3rd round pick” miracle trade this summer or into training camp?
Cha, give JS a little more credit than that. He’s no dummy. He does have a plan (even though we have no idea what it might be) and will try to do the best he can for the franchise.
I’ve practically given up on a Ngakoue trade. If they’re not willing to pay Clark or Clowney I don’t know why they’d be willing to pay Ngakoue.
Aside from that, I can’t work out what their plan is. Other than they appear to be willing to wait out Clowney until he makes a decision and… a draft.
Clowney is doing to us somewhat what he did to Houston a year go. He’s paralyzing a process. No, it may not be as rancorous, but it’s having the same effect. Clogging up the pipes.
The difference is Seattle doesn’t own his rights and aren’t holding his salary.
They can move on whenever they want.
They’re choosing not to.
Yeah, I get that. But he’s still currently paralyzing the process nonetheless. PC/JS don;t seem to want to move on from him, or at least give him a time frame ultimatum.
But that’s his prerogative. He’s had to wait six years for free agency and now he’s going to do what he thinks is right. He’s not paralysing anything. The Seahawks are choosing to let him influence their plans by refusing to either do what it takes to get the deal done or move on.
That’s what I meant, more or less. PC/JS are letting him paralyze the process because they want him and are empowering him in this way.
Then they are paralysing it themselves. Clowney isn’t doing anything.
quite a big assumption that they would sign other DE/DT if Clowney signed somewhere else, isn’t it?
You would have them sign Everson Griffin? I completely understand why they aren’t – he’s getting old (32 as of today), averaging 1 sack every 106 snaps and 1 QB hit per 39 snaps over the last 2 seasons (Ansah at 1 sack every 78 snaps and 1 QB hit every 32 snaps over last 2 seasons). He’s probably not accepting offers under $15m AAV or with less than 2 years of guaranteed money, and that’s too expensive for an ageing declining player.
You would have then trade for Ngakoue? I completely understand why they haven’t, as he’d cost at least a 1st round pick and a $21M AAV contract on a team that is already drafting in a bad position, has limited draft capital, and is strapped for salary cap space this year.
I don’t think they are paralyzing themselves, I think they don’t see any reasonable value on the FA or trade market. And they are not going to overpay.
1. It’s not a big assumption at all they would sign other DT/DE’s if Clowney signed somewhere else. They would 100% sign other DE’s.
2. Don’t even try and compare Ansah to Griffen. You might also want to check other stats other than the one you posted. Griffen had 35 pressures in 2019 — as many as Robert Quinn, two fewer than Von Miller and five fewer than Chandler Jones. Not bad for a ‘declining’ player.
3. Why are you implying that I’d have them trade for Ngakoue? As if that’s something I’ve stated? And how do you know what the price is for a trade or a contract?
4. So they’re not going to overpay — and they’ll just have Irvin, Green and Collier as their DL next season. And in five years we can all warm ourselves on nostalgia, re-living the famous 2020 off-season where the Seahawks saved some money (but had a crap pass rush and didn’t contend when the season started).
Clowney is attempting to negotiate himself into the best deal and situation he can. He doesn’t owe Seattle anything. He is, literally, a free agent. His leverage should only increase as teams get closer to the draft and with holes to fill and a weak, under-tested defensive line class looming; they will likely re-think their offers as he seems like a much more certain option in a terribly uncertain process. It seems to me the longer Seattle waits the less likely they are to sign him. I would have much preferred to “overpay” Clowney by the 3-4 million they spent dumpster diving for Womack and Ogbuehi.
I hope there is a way out of this that improves this tepid defense but I have a hard time seeing it.
I think it’s a fair point.
If they’re offering $18.5m (as reported) for Clowney — why not just cut Tedric Thompson and not sign Womack/Ogbuehi and get this thing done???
Clowney really has no loyalty to us. He certainly had more with Houston and look what he pulled there. Most if not all players are about money and will in the end just take what they can get. However, Clowney was the first pick in the draft and has made tons of money already. He is 26 and knows this is the time to cash in.
I really don’t think a guy like this is going to get upset with our first offer. He will wait it out and find the best offer and if we beat it by any small margin he will probably be back with us. If JS/PC think he isn’t going to get an offer of more than say 17 million per year than why would we succumb to his demands of 20+ million per? He simply wants to be on a contending team that’s willing to pay him the most he can get. I still think he’s coming back in the end.
It is a business after all. I don’t blame him for waiting and he is in a position where he can. It might cost him a few million this year but he is still betting on himself. We’ve seen what teams have done to players and Clowney is in a unique position where he can wait. The problem is that Seattle is willing to wait also at the cost of missing other players that can help fix our DLine.
The Clowney thing is frustrating – my best guess of what’s happening now is that Clowney hasn’t received the offer he wanted – and now feels his market is hindered b/c of Covid-19 and him not being able to get physicals and otherwise meet w his other teams to either sign there – or help enhance his leverage w the Hawks.
But toward the sentiment on the prior thread that the Hawks are unimproved from last year even if Clowney re-signs – can I offer this – the best version of last year’s team was actually pretty good – and if we hadn’t had a pretty unusual rash of injuries and suspensions all bunched together at the worst time of the year (i.e. late in the year so there was no oppty for them to return) – it easily could have been the Hawks repping the NFC in the SB. Even w all those injuries/suspensions we lost to the Niners in Week 17, by a six-inch margin.
I think Dunbar will be an upgrade, I think 2nd year Blair will be an upgrade. I’m holding out some hope (w no data to support, I acknowledge) that Collier will give us something in Y2. On offense, I don’t see why Carson will regress at age 24 – and I think 2nd year DK is likely to be better than the rookie version. The guys we lost on the O-line were serviceable, nothing more – and the NFC is not filled with powerhouses.
If we are able to bring back Clowney – I think we still contend.
As I see it there is little chance Clowney doesn’t come back. We certainly have told his agent that we will beat whoever has an offer at the table within reason right? There is zero chance we enter next season with what we have on the dline plus some rookies. It simply can’t happen. I won’t believe it. I can’t believe it.
Yeah, best case scenario is that both sides are playing it in this “strictly business” way and not taking it personal at all.
This is how I’m approaching this. The problem is that we haven’t done anything else (besides signing Bruce) to help the situation. I like Bruce and glad he is back but he isn’t the answer although he is part of the solution.
It might not matter if they’re willing to beat any other offer.
If they play around for too long Clowney might prefer to go somewhere else and say — ‘you had your chance’.
It’s possible they have something akin to a gentleman’s agreement.
Team PC/JS: Here’s our best offer now, the best on the current market. If someone beats it, we’ll match or slightly exceed it.
Team Clowney: I’m going to shoot for a better offer till some such time, and if I don’ get it, I’ll take yours.
It’s possible there’s nothing personal about it between them, that they are both playing it the way the other would expect them to, more or less.
Maybe.
But that would be a ludicrous position for the Seahawks to take. They’d essentially be handcuffed until Clowney makes a decision. And if he decides to go somewhere else after all of this — they’d be royally screwed.
I agree with the first paragraph. I think that’s exactly how Clowney sees it. And I don’t think he’s going to cave and take Seattle’s offer just because it’s the best one at the moment. I think he’ll see this process to its longest point if he needs to. And I’m struggling to understand Seattle’s approach if that indeed is his desire.
The second paragraph I have a lot of issues with. Being pretty good is fine if your aim is to get dumped out of the playoffs quite early on and not be a serious contender. If the aim is to make a Super Bowl — the Seahawks were not good enough last year. They had some flashes for sure. Some impressive wins too. But the pass rush and D-line in general simply wasn’t good enough. We can say they would’ve done this that and the other without the injuries. Certainly that hammered the end of the season. But they never felt like a proper contender. Not when they nearly threw away the game in Atlanta, or were pushed around by Baltimore and New Orleans, or had their arses kicked by the Rams. They were some ways off being a proper contender. And now they’ve made their biggest most glaring issue worse at the start of FA.
“But they never felt like a proper contender”
Yeah, I know what you mean – we often didn’t look good for large portions of even the games we won. But maybe when you do have a franchise QB, that you are paying at market salary for that role – it’s nearly impossible not to be a flawed team. Of course that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try – and of course I agree that our pass rush is the glaring weakness right now.
My point was that – in the games that mattered – for the most part we still showed up, and won or nearly won them. And but for that flukey double whammy of Carson/Penny both going down in the same 2-week span, I feel like we were a coin toss chance from making it to the big game last year. Anyway, not disagreeing about the need for improvements on defense, it doesn’t really feel like a Pete Carroll team when the D is the weak link.
I think all teams are flawed to an extent. Every season is a battle to stay as healthy as possible and minimise your weaknesses. The teams with the fewest injuries and the more managed weaknesses often prevail.
For me Seattle were a coin toss away from winning the NFC West if healthy. But I couldn’t see them making a Super Bowl, even if they got a healthy seeding. They lost four games at home. They were pushed around at times by Baltimore, New Orleans, the Rams and San Francisco. They did also beat the Niners — but that was the season peak and it’s worth remembering that was also San Fran’s lowest ebb with a number of injured players (including George Kittle). They won 11 games. It could’ve been 12 or 13. It easily could’ve been eight or nine too. They were as good as they were because their best player is an elite quarterback. The rest of the roster is pretty poor with a few obvious exceptions.
For Seattle to be anything more than what they’ve been for a while now — a playoff team that gets knocked out in the first two rounds — they cannot have the pass rush they had last year. They have other areas to work on but first and foremost you can’t have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL and expect to be a contender. And so far this off-season they’ve spent a lot of money padding out their depth on questionable additions and they’ve done nothing to fix the pass rush other than sign a 32/33 year old Bruce Irvin.
Just curious what you think Clowney eventually signs for and the length of the contract, regardless of team? I am leaning towards a short incentive laden contract.
When all is said and done, I see a short term contract being signed, min 1 year, max 3, where the annual salary is between 17-18 mil. Nobody in the league is stepping up and paying Clowney 20 mil despite him asking/wanting it. Eventually this realization will sink into his subconscious, and if he wants to play/make money next year (hopefully the season still happens), then he will need to sign it sometime.
1-3 years with $16-18m base salary with performance bonuses that could take him to $19-20m seems reasonable. If he can stay healthy and put his work in on the field then he deserves the higher figure, but you are right about the cold market at that number for him right now.
Rob or others – you mentioned in a previous post a scenario for trading up for Simmons. You gave your estimation of what it would take to move up to #6. I’m curious what you think it would cost to move up to #3, to almost guarantee getting Simmons or maybe even Young at that spot? (assume a QB goes #1) I know it’s a bit unrealistic, but I guy can dream. Thanks!
Sign Clowney, E Griffin
DL: Clowney, Reed, Ford, Griffen/Irvin
LB: Simmons, Wagner, Barton, Draft/Kendricks?
Cut: Britt, KJ, Thompson and Dickson
It’d cost too much to get up to #3.
As for trading up for Simmons — I don’t think it’ll happen. I just pitched a scenario in an article a few weeks ago.
Yeah there is zero chance with trade up for Simmons unless by some miracle he lasts into the teens I suspect.
Got it, thanks! I just wasn’t sure how much the price escalated per-pick to move up three spots. It must be astronomical based on your reply. He’s going to be the real deal in IMO….
The Redskins traded up in 2012, from #6 to #2.
The rams got the redkins’ 2012 first and second round pick, as well as the 2013 first and the 2014 first round pick
The notion that Walter Jones was “not as tough” as some rookie-to-be is ludicrous. The rook hasn’t earned that comparison. Walter was tough as nails. Started as a rookie, played 13 seasons, never missed a start. Couldn’t take anti-inflammatories during his career because of a condition that made it dangerous for him to do so.
That “scout,” or “analyst,” or whatever he is, should take it down a notch.
I agree.
Calling into question Big Walt’s toughness was asinine.
I agree. Big Walt was very quiet, but he was a BAMF.
What do you think are the chances we draft ZERO offensive linemen? I for one would love that.
We sacrificed crucial cap this offseason toward the OL, so why draft 2+ more?
Here is a mock:
27. Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama
59. Curtis Weaver, DE Boise State
64. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
101. Willie Gay Jr., OLB Mississippi State
133. Robert Windsor, DT Penn State
144. James Proche, WR SMU
214. Josh Metellus, S Michigan
I think the chances of drafting zero offensive linemen is 0%.
Only position group with depth in every round.
You are definitely correct, Sir.
It sure would be refreshing though…
Then we could actually grab some players at skill positions that could make a stamp on a game or 2 in year one. (Diggs, Weaver, Gay, and CEH types).
Never understood the philosophy on drafting OL with Russ at QB…
Even if they are sound in their technique, he can make any lineman look bad with his preference to let things develop, and run around them and escape the pocket.
What is a good OLs product aside from creating a pocket? Russ doesn’t like pockets.
Rob- Have you been able to watch any film on Antonio Gibson of Memphis? With likelihood of being able to tap into the WR/RB pool early now hampered, I’m thinking of guys they might be able to snag @101/133, and he fits right in that range.
I haven’t.
Well, if you are taking such requests, consider this mine!
I really like him. Played WR and RB and was a great return man. Ran a 4.39 and has a knack for big plays.
AndrewP – Check out Darrynton Evans from App State as well.
Thanks for a new name! I like the looks of him…
Definitely a Day 3 guy that could be an alternative to Taylor/CHE/Akers should they miss out.
Love Gibson. Would be thrilled if we get him in the late 3-4 roundish area.
What’s the worst trade you’ve seen from the sim? How about crazy BOB down in Houston with this gem:
HOU Received:
Pick 17 – K’Lavon Chaisson
DAL Received:
Pick 40 – Antoine Winfield Jr.
Pick 57 – Brycen Hopkins
Pick 90 – Davon Hamilton
Pick 111 – Devin Duvernay
2021 HOU 4th
How about the best draft haul by any team from the sim? Miami consistantly has a killer draft on the sim but this is just insane!
MIA 3.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB Alabama
MIA 18.
Andrew Thomas
OT Georgia
MIA 39.
A.J. Terrell
CB Clemson
MIA 56.
Kyle Dugger
S Lenoir Rhyne
MIA 62.
Curtis Weaver
DE Boise State
MIA 70.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB LSU
MIA 94.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE Missouri
MIA 122.
Leki Fotu
DT Utah
MIA 153.
Khaleke Hudson
ILB Michigan
MIA 173.
McTelvin Agim
DT Arkansas
MIA 185.
Bravvion Roy
DT Baylor
MIA 227.
Michael Onwenu
G Michigan
MIA 246.
Cheyenne O’Grady
TE Arkansas
MIA 251.
Jonathan Garvin
OLB Miami
Trade #1
MIA Received:
Pick 3 – Tua Tagovailoa
DET Received:
Pick 5 – Derrick Brown
2021 MIA 1st
Trade #2
GB Received:
Pick 49 – Laviska Shenault Jr.
MIA Received:
Pick 62 – Curtis Weaver
Pick 94 – Albert Okwuegbunam
Trade #3
MIA Received:
Pick 122 – Leki Fotu
IND Received:
Pick 141 – Shane Lemieux
Pick 154 – Thaddeus Moss
haha, I’ve played around with Miami as well and if they don’t get Tua I would be both shocked and dismayed.
Clowney says #Disrespect ala ET?
Hawks had their best offer, Clowney stuck with looking for competitive offers which are not coming due to Covid. Hawks are not meeting Clowney’s $20m expectation. So we are in a stalemate, ball is in Clowney’s court and he knows Hawks offer is always on the table as a backup. He can wait this one out as long as he can.
Where did you get that from?
I have a feeling Zach Baun will be the Hawks first pick. He just seems to make plays when you watch the tape. Alpha personality. Has a knack for getting to the qb.
He may be a little light, but I could see him taking over at SAM and being a situational pass rusher on 3rd down. He just seems like a Seahawk to me.
I can’t see it.
Not really the type of player they’ve ever drafted. Short, lacks length, only ran a 4.65 at 238lbs. Can’t play EDGE so will need to be moulded into a linebacker who rushes on key downs and yet his best asset is rushing.
To me he’s a 3-4 prospect or someone suited to an attacking defense. If he was 6-4 and 250lbs I could believe in it due to his great 10-yard split. But he has linebacker size.
I would be shocked if Baun was our first pick…let alone any of our picks.
Yeah I would highly doubt it. After taking LJ Collier, I think they go back to trend of taking someone w/ explosive traits or size with the first pick ala Penny/C-Mike/Irvin/Clark/P-Rich/Ifedi/McDowell etc.
Makes sense. It’s just a tough draft for pass rush as you’ve mentioned before.
Thank you for all your work on the blog, Rob. Long time reader and Hawks draft addict. I appreciate all the time you put into this. It’s made quarantine not as painful. Cheers!
Thanks for reading
Theoretically the Seahawks should have had an idea of what it would take to sign Clowney to a long -term deal back in the fall, prior to trading a 3rd round pick and a promising young pass rusher for him.
Those discussions had to have taken place with Clowney and Bus Cook in the fall so that they could budget and plan for March, otherwise it was just a very short sighted move akin to the Sheldon Richardson trade.
So, has Clowney’s expectations changed since then? Doubtful, as injury uncertainties and a good, not great, 2019 season wouldn’t likely increase his salary demends. Have the Seahawks re-evaluated and are now looking for a discount predicated upon his injury and inability to take a physical for another team.
The cost of an excellent edge player is what it is. Either you’re willing to pay the going rate or you’ve decided that you want to build a team without one.
Actually the Seahawks weren’t allowed to talk contract with Clowney until the end of the 2019 season per the terms of his franchise tag.
Yes but surely they had some idea about what he was going to ask for. Hopefully they didn’t just want him for a one year rental hoping for a SB win last year.
It’s against the rules to talk about it. So even if they had an idea, it would’ve been a guess. Just because they had to wait until they were permitted to talk doesn’t mean they didn’t intend to have him beyond 2019.
True, but if you were in the front office at that time would you have thought…..mayyyybe we could get him 13 mil a year. Nobody could possibly think that.
No, I wouldn’t have thought that. And they haven’t been able to get him for $13m a year.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that the Seahawks make that move with an awareness of what the market for a higher end edge player would be come the 2020 offseason. And theoretically, they would know whether or not that was in their long-term budget forecasting or not.
But then again, they gave up significant value for Sheldon Richardson and showed little interest in keeping him beyond his one year. So who knows.
Sometimes they seem more impulsive than measured.
The pass rush options are thin, and I know we’ve talked about this ad-nauseum.
Young is really good obviously but is 100 percent out of reach.
BUT I do think every season there are certain prospects we kind of dismiss as seahawks prospects because 1. We think they will be drafted way earlier than where the Hawks will pick first and 2. we as a community just generally view them as overrated.
For example, McDowell. If I recall correctly, we were never a fan of his before the draft. And right before draft time most mocks had him going earlier than our first selection. Well, we know how it turned out.
BUT…
With the clowney situation looking worse and worse, the seahawks might just have to pony up and go pass rush whoever the best option is. Our view of it might be to trade down and get Okwara in round 2. It’s a good option. Okwara’s testing numbers are a bit unknown, but he has plays on tape where it appears he has NFL pass-rusher quickness/speed. He also has a good pressure percentage stat which is key for the hawks. My main problem with him is effort, he takes a lot of plays off. He also needs to bulk up for an NFL starting role.
However, hawks could see it very differently. IE, if Chaisson, Epenesa, or Gross-Matos slip, (all three are generally projected to go before the hawks, and all three are more highly regarded by the mainstream draft media than Okwara is) they might feel forced to just go with one of those options.
Is it worth taking a closer look at those three?
1. It’s not that we weren’t a fan of his play. It was just everything about him didn’t chime with their desire to find grit, competitive nature etc. He was the opposite of that. At the end of the process we spent a lot of time on him after he met with the Seahawks at the VMAC. So we were prepared and there were things to like on tape — it was just he didn’t feel like a fit in terms of character. And he wasn’t — they took a punt they have regretted ever since.
2. I think we’ve talked a lot about Chaisson, Epenesa and Gross-Matos. I think people generally know what I think about all three anyway. I’ll be stunned if they consider Epenesa and his 5.04 forty. Chaisson has a lot of the character aspects teams will love but he dodged the combine (what’s he hiding?) and his production is poor. Plus he doesn’t have the length they like. And Gross-Matos I just have trouble fitting into Seattle unless they believe he’s a five technique.
Did one of those mock drafts
SEA 41.
Julian Okwara
DE Notre Dame
If you can trade down and get this guy that is excellent value. (I traded with Cleveland and got an extra third)
DE Notre Dame
trade icon
SEA 59.
Raekwon Davis
DT Alabama
I know a lot of people are not fans of his 2019 season, but in 2018 he showed flashes of dominance. Worth a second. Poona didn’t look like a long term starter. If we are going to improve the pass rush we also need some coming from the middle.
SEA 64.
Isaiah Wilson
OT Georgia
I know it’s highly highly unlikely he lasts until this point but he if does…
SEA 74.
Rashard Lawrence
Not spectacular but he’s solid and we need some reinforcements in the middle after losing woods and jefferson, badly.
SEA 101.
Anthony McFarland
RB Maryland
SEA 133.
Trevis Gipson
DE Tulsa
SEA 144.
Tanner Muse
S Clemson
SEA 214.
Javelin Guidry
S Utah
SEA 101.
Anthony McFarland
RB Maryland
Wide receiver is the popular pick here but I love the idea of McFarland as the seahawks third running back and I didn’t like the value at wide receiver.
SEA 133.
Trevis Gipson
DE Tulsa
Vol mentioned this guy. The seahawks need to look for solutions wherever they can and in the fourth this is worth the risk.
SEA 144.
Tanner Muse
S Clemson
Convert him to linebacker and have him compete at SAM, he can cover. 4.41 runner.
SEA 214.
Javelin Guidry
S Utah
He’s short but ripped strong, 300 lb bench press, and fast, 4.29 runner. Insane athlete who isn’t a complete football player at this point but in the sixth he’s a good bet as an impact special teamer who could compete at nickel back down the road.
I think 2 very likely DE targets will be Okwara and Weaver. Weaver is a bit unusual but I could see us liking him.
If we don’t sign Clowney/Griffin is there any scenario where we don’t take a DE with one of our first 3 picks?
Its a shame because this is the year to really invest some OL.
I doubt they will draft any OL in first 4 picks with all their FA acquisition.
Just completed my first PFN Mock Draft:
Traded #27 to Miami for their picks 39, 70, & 141.
#39 – Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan
#59 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
#64 – Raekwon Davis, DT Alabama
#70 – Jabari Zuniga, DE Florida
#101 – Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State
#133 – Kenny Willekes, DE Michigan State
#141- Shane Lemieux, G Oregon
#144 – Shaun Bradley, ILB Temple
#214 – Derrek Tuszka, DE North Dakota State
Not gonna lie, I like the kid from ND State, got a little TJ Watt in him. He’d be a great project.
So many of us have been posting our sims…and boredom entitles us. However, we should be more realistic. Not picking on you, believe me I’ve done the same thing but these guys are going earlier:
Ruiz
Davis
Zuniga
Aiyuk
If not I would be surprised
Agreed outside Davis. I dont think he makes it to round 3 but it’s not outside of his range. Someone could bite at 30, given the class, or he could go at like 70. With the class, I assume he’ll go in the 50s.
I believe that JS is planning an OL heavy draft. All the signings scream “hedge” to me other than Finney. He leaves the door open for Britt to leave or to backup center and start at G.
If you look at our OL deoth chart, it still isnt adequate with the signings. Definitely more space for draft picks at all 3 spots (2 if we keep Britt).
LT: Brown, Ogbuehi
LG: Finney, Haynes, Simmons
C: Britt, Finney, Hunt
RG: Fluker, Jones, Roos
RT: Shell, Ogbuehi
Cut Britt and its
LT: Brown, Ogbuehi
LG: Haynes, Simmons
C: Finney, Hunt
RG: Fluker, Jones, Roos
RT: Shell, Ogbuehi
Without Shell and Ogbuehi, our only OTs would be Brown and Chad Wheeler.
Add in an OL heavy draft class and it could look like
LT: Brown, Cleveland, Ogbuehi
LG: Finney, Haynes, R. Hunt
C: Britt, Finney, Throckmorton
RG: Fluker, Jones, R. Hunt
RT: Shell, Cleveland, Ogbuehi
Or if we cut Britt
LT: Brown, Cleveland, Ogbuehi
LG: Haynes, R. Hunt, Simmons
C: Finney, Throckmorton, J. Hunt
RG: Fluker, Jones, R. Hunt
RT: Shell, Cleveland, Ogbuehi
Clowney/Ngakoue + Griffen and these OL may be the plan. A RB by round 4, and a wildcard pick (BPA) by round 4 also (probably a WR or Defensive front 7).
has there been any news from clowney/seahawks camps? if not, you’d have to imagine they’re locked in to some sort of arrangement together that’s not being shared/released.
for example, why wouldn’t baltimore have made a move last week? derek wolfe… nah.
something must be going on… it would explain the lack of urgency from our FO too. either way, we need more than just “keeping” clowney.
bummed.
+12k
They would have done something by now if they were really that worried. We always say the coaches know more than us. Why do we suddenly believe that we know better than them?
I firmly believe we have damn near a deal worked out with Griffen, he almost has to be waiting on either us or Clowney and I doubt hes waiting on Clowney. I believe he plans to come reunite with Pete. Hes the players coach and Griffen is a prime example of a player who not only would be attracted to Pete, but knows Pete and won a CFB championship with him.
I also firmly believe that JS will not enter the season without either Clowney or Ngakoue. I’ve thought for a couple months now that Ngakoue makes for the perfect plan B for Clowney. The price will be high, but the value is better than anyone else. Even before free agency started.
Fowler got overpaid. Judon is 28 with 1 good season. Quinn cashed out. Addison is old. Clowney mand Ngakoue are in their prime and true blue chip players.
59 for Ngakoue > any other FA outside Clowney IMO.
People want to complain but this all makes too much sense to be coincidence.
agreed. but the one hole in this theory is… why pay for yannick when they didn’t pay frank. rob’s got a strong point here.
I commented on that a couple posts ago.
Coleslaw says:
March 27, 2020 at 5:46 pm
I want no part of Matt Judon. Not worth the money IMO.
The only thing that makes sense to me on why Ngakoue would be worth it to them and not Clark is that they had their hands tied before. Clark was traded when we had 4 picks. We didnt have much cap after signing Wagner and Wilson.
Then, Clowney’s situation is unique, they’re willing to pay him, as we know they offered 18.5M APY, but hes playing games. I wouldn’t say Clark and Clowney’s situations would show a pattern.
Ngakoue isnt as good as Frank was, so it’s easy to wonder why they would want Yannick over Clark. But what it probably comes down to is they were able to get a haul of picks, draft a few studs, and add Clowney on a 1 year rental (if we lose him). Now we have cap and we can trade for a pass rusher, if we miss out on Clowney that will likely be Ngakoue and they’ll probably add Griffen.
I just have to give PCJS the benefit of the doubt, I think they have a plan, they wouldnt just not fix their biggest need.
i’d blindly follow pete and john off a cliff… even when it gives me feverish symptoms.
Clark’s 2019 cap hit was $6.5M with KC. Seattle absolutely could have carried that. Heck, Ansah was higher than that at $8M. Having only 4 draft picks was of their own doing. So either they simply were not going to pay Clark as a top tier pass rusher or they sacrificed him & our pass rush to add draft picks due to earlier miss-management. Or both are true.
KC has a ring to prove that their side of the deal worked out okay.
I need to add a possible injury concern over Clark’s shoulder/s. Don’t remember where but I heard a rumor he might have had something that the team was leery to commit huge $$$ to.
doubt we can get all these, but i would like to see…..
#27
Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE
Penn State
59
Raekwon Davis, IDL
Alabama
64
Isaiah Wilson, OT
Georgia
101
Tyler Biadasz, IOL
Wisconsin
133
Lynn Bowden, WR
Kentucky
144
A.J. Dillon, RB
Boston College
214
Binjimen Victor, WR
Ohio State
add youth to the D line and O Line, get a big back to help Carson( i dont think Penny plays this year, and if he does it wont be til mid-late nov at best), Lynn Bowden could even serve as Russel’s backup(free up a spot on the roster as well as cap room by not having a true backup for backup $$$)as well as play WR. Victor could be another big body WR on the outside, moving Lockett to the slot.
just my wishlist.
This is addicting. I traded back into the second round with the Ravens, picked up both their 2nds (55,60 and a 6th round pick) Also traded 144 to the Jets for 158 and a 6th round pick the following year.
SEA 55. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB LSU
trade
SEA 59. Antoine Winfield Jr. S Minnesota
SEA 60. Raekwon Davis DT Alabama
trade
SEA 64. Jabari Zuniga DE Florida
SEA 101. Hunter Bryant TE Washington
SEA 129. Davon Hamilton DT Ohio State
trade SEA 133. Terence Steele OT Texas Tech
SEA 158. Nick Harris C Washington
trade
SEA 214. Kendall Coleman DE Syracuse
I wonder if Clowney’s plan here is to create a bidding war, and unless he’s able to travel to other teams to allow them to give him a physical, that’s not possible. So perhaps he’s simply biding his time and hoping that we make enough progress on stemming the spread of Covid-19 (i.e., herd immunity) such that travel is once again deemed acceptable risk by all parties.
A relevant issue here is: is Clowney seeking a particular amount of money? Or is he seeking the MOST money? The two questions are different. The first can be solved simply by the Seahawks meeting his demand. The second requires a 2nd party to bid against the Seahawks, and so if Clowney refuses to make a decision unless a 2nd bid hits the table, then the Hawks can’t do anything.
When you go through the teams with cap space to sign him, the need for him and a team that can win the list is pretty small. Our boy is coming home, it’s just a matter of time.
One thing I can take from past drafts is they probably arent going to take the guy most mocked to them. Beside the Okung/Thomas draft and 2016 with Ifedi its been a guy not really mocked to them. I would say 80% of the mock drafts I see have us taking YGM.
JUST SAY NO to Utah Gross-Tomatoes.
I did (most) of an OL heavy mock before I accidentally refreshed…
Traded down from 27 to like 35, got 89 and like 200 I believe. Traded down from 144 also and got something like 172 and 182.
35. Ezra Cleveland OT
59. Raekwon Davis DT
64. Gabe Davis WR
89. Robert Hunt OG
101. Zack Moss RB
133. Bryce Hall CB
172. Thaddeus Moss TE
182. Calvin Throckmorton C
200. Raequan Williams DT
*lost draft*
So realistically targeting the OL targets I pointed out above, and signing Clowney/Ngakoue + Griffen, this could be our class.
Since both Davis’ are the “BPA” picks that I alluded to earlier, in the case we trade for Ngakoue, we can just take one of them off the board and Bam, you have an Ngakoue + Griffen themed mock.
39. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
46. Brandon Aiyuk
70. Willie Gay Jr.
77. Hunter Bryant
95. Rashard Lawrence
118. Nick Harris
214. Steven Montez
Not a lot of picks, but this is my favorite draft so far. I feel like these are somewhat realistic, though I could see Lawrence and Harris going earlier.
After all these mocks, do you guys have a sense for where the ‘shelves’ and ‘tiers’ breakdown for desirable positions? Note: I’m only considering players from Pick 27 and beyond (no trade up).
Here’s how I’m seeing it, but would love to hear your thoughts:
– WR: Shelf 1 range through pick 35, Shelf 2 through 50, Shelf 3 through 80
– OT: Shelf 1 range through pick 45, Tier 3 through 90, with depth well beyond
– LEO: Okwara or bust
– DT/EDGE: Shelf 1 range through pick 40, Shelf 2 (very close) through pick 65
– G/C (taking out Ruiz): Shelf 1 range through pick 50, Shelf 2 through 70, Shelf 3 through 100
– RB: Shelf 1 through 65, Shelf 2 through 100
I’ve assumed QB, TE, LB, DB, and ST are not early round priorities.
Based on these assumptions, the Hawks would do well to find a trade partner to get in the 33-40 range while grabbing a 3rd rounder. They’d free up a ‘best player available’ with that 1st pick if they can sign a competent pass rusher to avoid having to grab Okwara or YGM (ugh).
It’s possible they could have 4 picks between 35-75, which would be excellent for this draft based on the needs above.
At this point this is all that matters to me:
“– LEO: Okwara or bust”
My day 3 Seahawks RB hope… Benny LeMay of Charlotte. 5’8″ and stocky, MJD like. Patient runner. Impressive on deep routes as a receiver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hLxSKFoGnU
I’m likely reading the tea leaves wrong and certainly differently than many in the conversation here.
I think the OL signings to date are designed to free up cash for the DL. I also think the Hawks draft an OT and G by the end of RD3.
Cuts
– Britt
– Fluker
Restructure
– Wright
O-Line
LT: Brown / Ogbuehi / Rookie
LG: Jamarco / Rookie / Pocic
C: Finney / Pocic
RG: Warmack / Hayes / Pocic
RT: Shell / Rookie / Ogbuehi
D-Line
LEO: Griffin / Irvin / Green
3T: Reed / Clowney / Collier / Jackson
1T: Mebane / Ford
5T: Clowney / Collier / Jackson
Changing three of five positions on the OL is giving me Cable flashbacks. I sure hope if that’s the case that Solari knows how to coach up these guys.
Not to mention doing in a year when we have most likely no off season ota or rookie camp, and the CBA has even less grainy amp practice. Moving parts on the OL is going to be a dumpster fire for any team.
*training camp damn autocorrect
That’s a good point, but if we assume that Finney was brought in to start then they’ve already got 2 new starters on the OL at a minimum.
After studying Finney I just don’t see him as anything but a Center for us. Since Solari came in we went for a different type of Guard. Finney is not as big or strong as the other guys and Center seems like his best position.
How likely is it we brought Finney in just to be a backup Center while re-signing Hunt?
Right now I assume he was brought in to give leverage to a possible restructure of Britt’s deal or a plan B if they decide to cut him.
Then a big mystery that adds to your theory is that they didn’t cut Dickson yet. There is no way they don’t want to cut him after bringing in all the other TE. There must be reason behind all this. It’s not like John Schneider just forgot about that guy. There must be a reason why they didn’t do some of the moves they want to do. It might be corona or something else but I don’t think our front office is done for this offseason.
I currently don’t see them cutting Fluker tbh. They seem to love him and he is serviceable when healthy.
This leaves me with this:
LT: Brown / Ogbuehi
LG: Jones / Haynes (Let them compete!)
C: Finney / Hunt
RG:Fluker / Warmack
RT: Shell / x
Swing tackle: Ogbuehi
The odd man out here is Pocic who has to fight for his roster spot during the pre season. He didn’t show anything yet.
Now this gives us a pretty good situation for the draft in my opinion. If a tackle they like falls to us they can grab him. There is a spot for that guy. Either as a competition for Shell or as a backup for Brown. If a Center like Ruiz falls they can grab him too and make him and Finney compete in the first year. They can also grab a guard in the later rounds and let him compete with Warmack/Fluker who both could be cut easily.
On the other hand none of these positions is a big need for now. If we would enter the season with that suggested OLine I think they made an improvement already. Ifedi was terrible, I know you guys want to see the positves but there is a reason why nobody wanted to give him another shot at Tackle in the league. Iupati was also not very good and I think a combo of Haynes and Jones will be an upgrade when healthy. Finney for Britt is a wildcard. Britt is proven serviceable but I don’t think he is much better than average. Plus he is coming of an injury. I would not be too worried if they take a shot at Finney instead of maintaining Britt.
Going nuts and trying to suppress my instinct to figure out why the heck Clowney isn’t signed. Not that I agree or disagree if true but . . . What if Clowney understands his situation and they have agreed in principle to a two year deal but he wants the Hawks to again agree not to FT him? JS I am certain does not want to set that trend in concrete. Too far fetched? LIke I said, going crazy in lockdown!
They haven’t agreed a deal. It’s just a stalemate.
I’m just as disappointed that the biggest issue has yet to be addressed. However, people keep saying “why haven’t they solved this?” but really, what options have they had? All the trades we have discussed, like Von Miller, have never had any traction or seemed realistic. Ngakoue will be similarly expensive and doesn’t have the athletic traits they looked for. Fowler seemed to always prefer Atlanta. Quinn got a massive deal and has had serious injury problems. Armstead seemed to want to go back to SF. Where are these solutions that everyone is clamoring for? I’ve said all along, all that cap space wasn’t as much as it initially seemed and the “throw money and draft picks at it” solution seems like the best case but those opportunities just don’t seem to be there as much as people are clamoring for them.
DL salaries are beginning to skyrocket, just as OL salaries have, and Schneider thinks long-term as much as any team in the league. Russ is getting older sure, but elite QBs have a long shelf life, and he has clearly started adjusting his playing style to be less reckless. Manning, Brady, Bress, Rivers, Rodgers, even guys like Palmer and Roethlisberger, have showed that great-elite QBs can be effective into their late 30s.
There were plenty of options. We don’t need to talk them all away to justify the inactivity.
But for me it all comes down to getting a deal done with Clowney. Sometimes you can’t get a player at the exact price you want. It’s not bidding against yourself as some have suggested. It’s sealing a deal. Getting your self confessed huge priority sorted. And now they run the risk of losing him over a few million that has seemingly gone on Ogbuehi and Womack etc.
Hey rob, what is the chance that Seahawks cut RFA signees after the Draft? Are there any problems with doing this for the cap? Could Hawks just be trying to hide who they will draft with their signings?
Are there teams that do this?
Sure, they can do it.
Usual morning task complete… moderating the posts.
Thank you. It does feel like the Forrest is overly dry right now and it would be a shame to have someone start a SDB fire. 😉
Trying to collect the guys that are keep coming up for the Hawks. Did I miss someone?
RB: Cam Akers mostly. Earlier: Taylor, CEH, McFarland. Later: Moss, Dillion. Most likely 3: Akers, Taylor, CEH
WR: R1: Raegor, R2: KJ Hamler Aiyuk (these two might be R1 or early R2), Claypool, R2-R3: Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, Van Jefferson. Most likely 3: Aiyuk, Duvernay, Edwards (mid value picks because too much need earlier)
TE: Hunter Bryant…aaand…maybe Adam Trautman? Asiasi or Deguara later as TE/HB hybrids? Most likely: Hunter Bryant, the others are not very likely
OL: Ezra Cleveland, Isaiah Wilson, Cushenberry, Ruiz, Nick Harris, Rober Hunt, Lemieux, Stenberg, Niang, Wanogho, Dotson (probably missed some guys). Most likely 6: Wilson, Cleveland, Dotson, Hunt, Stenberg, Cushenberry (Ruiz go too early, Harris is smaller, Cushenberry seems like a mid-range value pick to me)
DL: R1: Okwara, R2: Raekwon Davis, Madubuike, Zuniga, R2-R3: Bradlee Anae, Greenard, YGM, Later: Trevis Gipson, Rashard Lawrence. Most likely 6: Davis, Madubuike, Okwara, Zuniga, Lawrence, Greenard
LB: Willie Gay, Uche, Weaver (nfl combine list has them as LBs). As a pure LB only WGJr stands out. Maybe I missed some or we didn’t talk that much about LBs
CB: Mid: Bryce Hall, Michael Ojemudia, Late: Bandy Trajan (nCB, project), Javelin Guidry (nCB, project), Lamar Jackson (fits profile, but slow, 7th round or UDFA), Kindel Vildor (nCB, project). Most likely: Hall, Guidry (because his speed, and potentially solid ST early)
S: Early: Grant Delpit, Kyle Dugger, Winfield, Late: Josh Metellus. Most likely: Metellus (value pick later), from the early guys anyone who falls for some reason (maybe early-mid R2 if they trade McDougald)
I would like to watch some tape/highlights but don’t have endless time, so wanna prioritize.
Beside these guys are they someone I MUST watch?
Akers, Taylor, CEH, Duvernay, Edwards, Aiyuk, Wilson, Cleevland, Dotson, Hunt, Davis, Madubuike, Okwara, Zuniga, Lawrence, Willie Gay Jr, Bryce Hall, Metellus
Rob,
If the Seahawks are able to sign Jadeveon Clowney and another pass rusher (preferably a LEO) either by trade or free agency, would you prefer Yannick Ngakoue or Everson Griffen? Ngakoue is only 24 years of age, but PFF suggests he is a lousy run defender and he would require the Seahawks to give up draft capital. Griffen on the other hand, is a lot older at 32 years, but he knows PC’s system from USC, and the Seahawks would not have to give up draft capital.
Would be great to hear your thoughts on this! Thank you for providing an excellent blog!
I’d take either. If it was just a player for player comp I’d prefer Ngakoue because he’s 24 years old and has the kind of pissed off attitude this team has lacked recently. But the compensation for Ngakoue (picks and money) seems no longer possible after they filled out the roster with a bunch of depth/competition players.
Signing both Clowney & Ngakoue could have a cap hit @ $30 mil or less, depending on the signing bonuses. Spotrac presently shows $11,107,934 remaining, including draft picks & other cost concerns.
Trimming the roster of $19 mil could be a possibility, right?
Britt………$8.5
KJ…………$4 (Restructured)
Dickson….$3
Thompson $2.1
Bellore……$1
Total……..$18.6
Depending upon the draft selections, there could be other cuts that could include Fluker, or Ogbeuhi. Then there is always the possibility of Wilson freeing enough in order to bring in more “Stars” to the roster. The possibilities are there, if the price for both hover around $30 mil in 2020. There still may be chance.
“Ogbuehi”
I have question for all of you who think Clowney will be Seahawk its just matter of time…(I dont agree with this but ok)…if that what you say and think is true, can you tell me and explain me, what is the reason he didnt allready sign with Seattle?
I’m not sure I’d say it’s only a matter of time, because I’m not completely certain, but I do think it’s more likely than not that he comes back (hopefully soon). And the reason is that I don’t think the offers will be there for him, I ultimately think the reason he is unsigned is because there’s been next to no interest in him so the price hasn’t been driven up to where he wants it to be.
Sooner or later either he’ll cave and accept the Seahawks offer or they’ll sit down with him (virtually ofc) and sweeten the deal enough for him to take it. One of the two sides does have to act soon though because we cannot go into the draft without any pass rush help.
The thing is though — we’re two weeks into this now. No new offers are going to emerge.
So if he’s waiting this long he might as well wait until training camp. Or whenever he can go and visit teams again (that could be months away).
The Seahawks were clearly banking on their offer being the best and him being prepared to settle on it. He doesn’t seem willing to do that. So I don’t think it’s a sooner or later case any more. I think it’s a player determined to do this on his terms — his choice. Not accepting Seattle’s offer just because it’s there.
You used the word ‘cave’. I don’t think he’s going to cave at all. And why should he? We need him more than he needs us. I don’t think he has any intention of conveniently making this easier for the Seahawks. They’re going to have to go to him to get this done and he’ll tell them the price he’s always been telling them. So it’s on the Seahawks to break this stalemate. And for some reason they seem unwilling to either do that or move on.
I mostly agree with your last point, that it’s the Seahawks who are going to have to break this deadlock. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he might decide he’s waited long enough for the offers and he wants to get paid, but even that scenario will probably have to come with the Seahawks improving the bid a bit to satisfy his ego and make his holdout not look like a waste of times for both parties. ‘Cave’ was probably the wrong term, ‘decide to open negotiations with the goal of getting a deal done’ might be more suitable.
this reminds me of the Sheldon Richardson situation all over again. Richardson didn’t get the offers that he expected including from Seattle and he left to Minnesota on a small 1 year deal, then cashed out the next year with the Browns.
I agree with this 100%. He wont be the one who will break the silence with seahawks. No reason to do that. Nothing change in last few day and nothing will change before draft, to make him accept what seahawks allready offered him and what he obviously allready rejected.
And I think Seahawks won’t make better offer either because I.think.JS just dont do that. They will need to find another solution.
Yesterday i saw one opinion, who could.be interesting and Important for us as seahawks funs. Opinion is that Khan stoped trade talk about YN and want to show that there wont be another Ramsey situation. Interesting point.of.view and I hope Khan doesnt think that way.
I hope he does think that way. I do not Yannik on the team. He is not as good an all around player as JC, or Frank Clark, will cost as much as them, and handcuff our draft.
Isn’t there some risk for Clowney also? The longer this drags on the more teams will have spent their available cap money. Obviously nobody has offered what he wants. If he waits too long and the Seahawks offer is withdrawn he loses even more leverage.
Not really. What’s the risk? He takes a cheaper one year deal?
He hasn’t really got any leverage to lose. He’s already a multi-millionaire. If his aim is to get a mega contract and prove he’s one of the best in the business, it might even be better for him to take a cheaper deal with someone like the Ravens then re-enter the market next year. That’s hardly a bad scenario for Clowney. For Seattle it could destroy their season.
A positive note on the first pick of your last mock: Josh Jones had really high grades both in pass and run blocking.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1244429635913273345
I know grades don’t tell the whole story, but is at least nice to see.
I’m not sold on Jones to be honest. To me he needs a lot of work and probably a redshirt year. But he has the size and length, the mentality and he looks the part. So the investment could pay off in the long run. With Brown and Shell on the roster they might feel comfortable taking him.
Looking around cap space in he NFL right now (partially to scope out possible teams to jump into the Clowney deal) and I noticed the Colts, between Rivers, Brissett, Chad Kelly and dead money on Luck and Hoyer, are set to be paying $57,525,000 of their 2020 cap on Quarterbacks. Which is frankly a ridiculous number especially considering they’ve got a pretty decent roster still.
Coming up today…
Big piece on defensive linemen… and I’m interviewing Jim Nagy this afternoon.
Sweet! Please thank him for uploading Sr. Bowl practice footage, and ask him to maybe put in a word with NFL Network to actually show the action during coverage next year, not cut out to some re-run of AFCCG. After the many months of work he and his team do to get the best players there and promote the game, it’s an injustice for them to get shortchanged in coverage like that! We Senior Bowl fans won’t have it!
I’d be interested to hear what he thinks about more and more players choosing not to work out at the Combine. He fights a similar battle with trying to get players to the Sr. Bowl, but it seems the exposure and prestige of the event manage to win over most of them. What might he suggest the League do to incentivize players to work out at the Combine? (I don’t think they could force it, because players would just come up with some “injury”)
Also, tell him you’re definitely going next year!!
Awesome. Looking forward to the post. I really appreciate the daily opportunity to clear my head and think about life via this blog in a way that’s enjoyable and interesting. It’s not a distraction. It’s something that gives color and texture and significance to something I dearly love – sports and specifically the Seahawks. It’s not the only thing I love, of course. But it is important to me and Rob, I do greatly appreciate what you provide. When this shit has finally passed, and I am over in England again, I am coming to find you and give you a great big American hug! Like it or not.
I look forward to it 👍🏻
And thank you for the kind words
Psyched!
Dope, looking forward to it.
I’m curious who Nagy thinks are the best Edge/LEO prospects in this draft class for the hawks. And if it’s still a position Seattle truly values. Last year they seemed content to roll into the season without that LEO type player.
A word of caution guys — I won’t be asking Jim directly who he thinks the Seahawks might draft. I don’t want to put him in an awkward situation because we don’t know what conversations he has with the team.
However, I will be asking about a number of prospects and he may well volunteer some interesting info as he did last time we spoke.
Rob,
What do you think of Tanner Muse, the safety from Clemson, as possible competition at weakside linebacker?
I’ve not properly studied him.
Nice bend on Uche in this rep:
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1244602786404327425
He does have some tools to work with; length, speed, tenacity. It’s notable to me that they haven’t brought back Kendricks yet so maybe the are planning on adding a Bruce style SAM that can contribute some speed rush on third down. And he did have a very nice senior bowl which we know they value highly.
In fairness if they bring Kendricks back — and PC said he wanted to – it probably won’t be until camp time when they can access his recovery.
Don’t we already have a ‘Bruce’ style SAM in Bruce himself? I ask in regards to Kendricks who would now seem redundant. Uche would still be an option as Bruce is not NFL young.
At his age, I’d expect Bruce to be used in limited reps as a situational pass rusher only.
I feel like it might have been briefly discussed before, but what are the thoughts on tyler Johnson? Very productive, not much hype at all.
Not very explosive. Wasn’t even invited to Sr. Bowl.
Do we know why?
Take it with a grain of salt, but there were rumored character issues.
Rob – Sorry, because I’m sure you’ve talked about it before – but I’m relatively new to this site – but I’m curious – what was your POV on Collier as he was coming out last year?
And any insights (rays of hope) for his possibilities next season?
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/review-seahawks-select-l-j-collier-at-29
thanks
Yep as the link posted suggests, I was a big fan of Collier. Liked the pick. Not giving up on him at all.
But neither am I wanting to go into next season relying on him. They needed proven quality on the D-line to be a proper contender in 2020. That’s still the case.
This is an entertaining 2 min video that shows some of the things Collier can do https://mobile.twitter.com/baldynfl/status/1120388833089081345?lang=en
Anyone else so bored they are now drafting using PFN for other teams?
It’s fun to consider what the hawks can do but drafting for the ravens is scary.
According to ESPN (maybe not the best source) they are in business with just a few new targets for LJ and one or two interior offensive lineman, both clear strengths of this draft. Adding in the “needs” from PFN at OLB & ILB…Here is the mock:
28. Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
55. Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State
60. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ,RB LSU
92. Willie Gay Jr., OLB Mississippi State
106. Logan Wilson, ILB Wyoming
129. Logan Stenberg, G Kentucky
134. Nick Harris, C Washington
170. Larrell Murchison, DT NC State
225. Lamar Jackson, CB Nebraska
LJ choosing to throw between Brown, Reagor and Aiyuk… ridiculous
You just had to draft Lamar Jackson for them didn’t you ?? 😂 That draft would be amazing for the Ravens, a bunch of playmakers on offense and defense!
Bored? Yes. Using the simulators? Nah.
Sheddin’ a tear watching the ’13 & ’14 Hawks games/highlights though. That group was just different man.
Hawks vs Panthers 2014 divisional round highlights:
https://youtu.be/0uv1QnqULSg
Lol. Avril’s get off is just insane.
if you want scary, try drafting as the Dolphins. INone sim I traded out of the 5 pick with Detroit (didn’t fancy drafting Tua without a medical) & ended up drafting three (!) QBs. Jordan Love @12, Jalen Hurts @ 70 & Steven Montez @227. Plus also got Jonathan Taylor, CEH, Justin Jefferson & Bryan Edwards! Now that’s a scary draft. It’s all bollocks of course.
LOVE this draft!
Can someone explain to me why Tedric Thompson and Ed Dickson have not been released yet?
Since they ended they year on IR, don’t they have t pass a physical before they can be released without injury protection consideration? I could just be making that up…
I believe that is correct. Cutting them after they get their physicals will save a bit over $1m each. It’d be hilarious if PCJS have agreed to a contract with Clowney and are just waiting to make it official because they need guys to take physicals before they get cut lol. Not that I think that is the case, but it’d still be pretty funny.
Im about 95% sure it has to do with the fact they ended the season on IR. If they cant pass a physical first they are both entitled to a $1.2 million injury settlement that would eventually take there combined cap savings from $5.1 million down to $2.7. They dont exactly need the cap space right now so there is no rush. That would be my best guess.
Nuttiest Mock Ive gotten so far
Every pick had me thinking “How the fuck is this guy here at this pick?!”
SEA 27.
Isaiah Simmons
OLB Clemson
SEA 59.
Joshua Uche
OLB Michigan
SEA 64.
Raekwon Davis
DT Alabama
SEA 101.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR Arizona State
SEA 133.
Logan Stenberg
G Kentucky
SEA 144.
Charlie Heck
OT UNC
SEA 214.
Michael Onwenu
G Michigan
I think Kenny brought this up, but I’m really intetested to see where Derrick Brown goes. He’s a top 10 talent in this class for sure, but if teams don’t think he can rush the passer, I could see him sliding back into the teens. Are they gonna value something like him that high? IDK.
* someone
I don’t see any concerns with him at all.
The guy can do it all. He’s incredible. Don’t know why anyone would question his ability to disrupt the interior and rush the passer. He’s a top 10 lock.
Not disagreeing. Disrupt the interior, push the pocket? Of course. He’ll be a really good player, maybe even great, for a long time. But if he’s not a pass rusher, I’m not so sure that will be valued so highly. Because if he isn’t then you can get similar skill sets later.
I’m always curious when it comes to DTs unless your along the lines of Ndamukong Suh.
This gets said every year though and every year a top DT who isn’t defined by pass rushing goes very early. And Brown is better than Vea, Shelton, Rankins and Lawrence.
The biggest difference I see with the Clowney situation vs Sheldon Richardson is that Clowney isn’t receiving big offers because of injury history and a traditional lack of sack production.
A one-year contract is VERY risky for him given these things. If he gets hurt next year he loses $MILLIONS. If he has his normal number of sacks, he loses $MILLIONS.
A 4-year deal with a good percentage guaranteed would be best for Clowney, even if it is below the $20M APY he’s after.
Or he goes to Baltimore or wherever on a short term contract blows it up and with the new money coming into the league he’s on +$25m a year.
People need to remember this isn’t just about money. It’s about respect. Clowney has made more than $50m in his career. He believes he’s one of the best players in the league at his position and he wants paying like it. He’s not going to be worried about the risk of playing on a one year deal. He’ll be more concerned about teams taking advantage of this unique situation.
Agreed. But the young man has a propensity to get injured. That is a TON of risk when $18.5M is on the table.
It’s not a risk though. Because again, he’s made $50m in his career. He’s in a luxurious position where he doesn’t need money. He’s not going to be staying up at night fretting about an injury that is yet to happen. This is about respect for him. And he’s going to do it his way.
If he signs a one year deal with the Ravens and stays relatively healthy he will get his 20 million next offseason. This prospect should be keeping Carroll and Schneider up at night.
Yeah, I would be ecstatic if Isaiah Wilson lasted until the 27th pick. And I would be equally disappointed Seattle passes on him because they have Brandon Shell and are desperate for defensive linemen.
Chai