Andrew Luck: The face of a champion

It’s official, Andrew Luck will be playing for several NFL teams next year. He’ll play the first three games in Miami and having had a taste of the AFC East, he’ll stick around for the next four weeks in Buffalo before it gets too cold. Then he’s off to Denver for a week of mentoring from fellow Stanford grad John Elway, before a fortnight in Cincinnati. Washington will be Luck’s home after that, before a long flight to spend some time in San Francisco. 

He’ll end his tour in Seattle and do it all again next year. 

The reason for such a difficult travel schedule is simple – each of these teams is going to be picking first overall next year. 

Ever since free agency finally began last week, there’s been a series of knee jerk reactions from the media, fans, bloggers – pretty much everyone associated with the NFL. Every perceived bad decision has been greeted with the use of ‘Andrew Luck’ as an adjective. You could almost dub a bad free agent signing as ‘pulling an Andrew Luck’. The perception seems to be that teams are deliberately making these moves in order to be so painfully bad that they’ll become the worst of 32 teams this year. 

I just can’t see it like that. 

For starters, what if Andrew Luck breaks his leg in the final week of the college football season? It’s not a proposal I want to dwell on, because it’s a horrible thing to say about a talented quarterback. However, is it not a possibility? Is a team really going to base it’s entire 2011 NFL campaign on the possibility that Luck stays healthy and will therefore be the golden goose everyone’s decided he is? 

This concept that there could be as many as five or six teams battling it out to be worse than the others is comical. I would argue it’s just as difficult to become so bad you earn the #1 pick as it is to make the Super Bowl. 

Just look how bad the previous owners of the #1 spot have been –  last season, Carolina went 2-14 with Jimmy Clausen stinking the place out as the Panthers lurched towards what they thought was a shot at Andrew Luck. He stayed in school. 

The year before that, St. Louis picked up just one win. One measely win, despite playing in a wretched NFC West. A truly incredible feat, even for the Rams. The year before that? Not even zero wins would’ve guaranteed you’d get ahead of the Detroit Lions to pick first overall. Miami went agonisingly close to a 0-16 season twelve months earlier, only to be rescued by an unusually terrible Baltimore Ravens outfit. 

The year before that? Al Davis. 

As I noted in this article earlier in the year, to be consistently bad is incredibly hard. For the first few weeks of last season everyone had the Buffalo Bills as a lock to be picking first overall. Against all expectation, they actually made improvements and settled for the #3 overall pick instead, affording Carolina the opportunity to swoop in and become the worst team in the NFL. Kudos to the Panthers. 

The Seahawks are another great example of how difficult it is to pick first overall. Despite a laundry list of injuries in 2008 (and a lame duck coach) the team still managed four wins, enough to pick 4th overall. Not first. Jim Mora came in as coach the season after and arguably made things even worse, yet the Seahawks still only ‘earned’ the 6th overall pick. 

There’s a reason why this team has never owned the #1 overall pick and it’s because it’s an incredibly difficult thing to do. Seattle has found it equally tough to be the ‘worst’ as it has to be the ‘best’ in the team’s entire history. 

So when Tavaris Jackson was signed from Minnesota to replace media darling and untouchable veteran Matt Hasselbeck, the cries of ‘Andrew Luck!’ rang aloud throughout the nation. What a terrible decision, how could they make such a desperate move? This was either an elaborate plan to get to Luck next April, or it was a short sighted decision that would get the franchise there via error. 

Sorry, but I’m not buying it. 

I am by no means a big Tavaris Jackson fan, but let’s look at the quarterbacks who featured for the teams picking first overall the last few years: 

Carolina– Matt Moore & Jimmy Clausen 

St. Louis– Keith Null & Kyle Boller 

Detroit– Dan Orlovsky & Daunte Culpepper 

Miami – Cleo Lemon & John Beck 

Like I said, I’m not trying to suggest Jackson will win the Seahawks that elusive Lombardi Trophy but I’ve a lot more faith in his abilities than Keith Null, Cleo Lemon and Jimmy Clausen. What’s more, the front office have actually put together the foundations of a decent supporting cast. The signing of Sidney Rice – health permitting – could be a master stroke. The offensive line could be the most expensive in the entire NFL, considering it contains two first round tackles, a former #2 overall pick at left guard, a second round pick at center and a recent third round pick at right guard. It’ll take time to grow, but the Seahawks also spent big on a coach to get them up to speed quickly. 

Investment has been made in a running back (Marshawn Lynch) and also the receivers (a second round pick on Golden Tate, re-signing Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu). Jackson also has his former offensive coordinator calling plays and knowing his strengths/limitations. Of course, Jackson is also familiar with the team’s new star at receiver. 

OK – Jackson might never develop into a great quarterback, but the Seahawks have done pretty much everything physically possible to at least make life a little bit easier for the guy. Can the same be said of Cleo Lemon in Miami? How about Keith Null and Daunte Culpepper? 

I appreciate the Seahawks’ schedule is insanely difficult with four games against the tough AFC North, four games against the equally daunting NFC East and games against the top placed teams in the NFC. Have we also forgotten Seattle annually plays six games in the weakest division in football? 

As of today I would suggest there are three teams much more likely to pick first overall. Cincinnati are my favorites – they’ll be starting an over rated rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton, they’ve lost players like Jonathan Joseph to free agency and they’ll be playing Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. Andrew certainly will need some Luck playing for Mike Brown (don’t go to Carson Palmer for advice, unless you want to pull an Eli). 

Denver picked second overall last year and haven’t done an awful lot to improve their areas of weakness. Oh yeah, they also appointed the coach that led Carolina to the #1 pick last year (although John Fox, in fairness, was a lame duck). It could be worse I guess… Jim Mora could’ve accepted that position as defensive coordinator. 

Then there’s Washington, who brought in a lot of rookie’s during the draft but lack a lot of proven talent. The offensive line is poor and still growing and they haven’t got any playmakers. They play in the NFC East. They have John Beck and Rex Grossman at quarterback (suddenly Tavaris Jackson doesn’t sound all that bad). 

The Seahawks will have to be especially unfortunate with injuries (not unrealistic) and be completely devoid of fortune (more unrealistic) to select first overall. Whatever anyone says about the team last year – and I firmly believe they over achieved on the whole – the effort was there every single week. That team never gave up, even if at times it was seriously outclassed. I have a hard time seeing this coaching staff, this front office and this group of young individuals performing to a level that ‘earns’ the first overall pick. Can I see five or six wins given the schedule? Sure, but that will only be good enough for a place in the 5-12 region of the first round. 

I think it’s testament to the way Pete Carroll is rebuilding this team that they’ve already moved beyond being old at key positions, injured or just bad – and now the problems are inexperience and a smattering of key areas that could use investment in the future. The time to be awful was last year when the team really had barely anything but special teams to hang it’s hat on. They still won the NFC West. Now the time has well and truly passed to pick first overall with a solid off season despite the lockout. 

As I said – I could still see the Seahawks finishing bottom of the NFC West, or at least third. There’s a long way still to go from being a contender in the NFC, but that is on the horizon if they can add to three key areas for the long term – quarterback, pass rusher, cornerback. That’s still a huge step to take, of course. Even so, there’s enough talent elsewhere to at least avoid being the NFL’s 32nd best team. 

So if the Seahawks are going to have a shot at Andrew Luck next April, they’re going to have to be willing to pay two or three first round picks to get to that #1 spot. The Seahawks might not be great in 2011, but they’re not going to be bad enough to get Andrew Luck.

Will the Seahawks take a look at Antonio Cromartie?

Bold statement in the title? Perhaps. However, I truly believe the Seahawks are three key pieces away from being a contender in the NFC. Let me explain…

For starters, you don’t need to be a dynasty to win the weak NFC West. If you are solid, consistent and good at home – you’ll win the conference. The fact you have the opportunity to play six games against NFC West opponents also helps in terms of playoff seeding. If you’re in the post season regularly, you’re a contender. If the Seahawks are playing playoff games at home, even more so.

I think this off-season has been a unmitigated success so far. I’m not a ‘homer’ who backs every decision this team makes, far from it. Neither am I overly critical, but certainly I would like to be considered a realist. I felt the Seahawks had to move on at quarterback and rather than assume a 36-year-old often injured Matt Hasselbeck was far better than any other option, I think the Seahawks made the right choice to at least try and turn over a new page. This team is not building around Hasselbeck or even a quarterback with his current skill set. I understand the popularity he enjoyed and deserved in Seattle, but let’s be brutally honest here – Matt’s reputation and general ‘great guy’ personality is the only thing separating him from other ageing (and struggling) quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb.

I’m a big proponent of the receiver position and feel it’s vastly underrated by fans who clamour for ‘building in the trenches’ as the only way to success. I don’t mean you can’t build a team with strong line play, but looking at recent Super Bowl teams like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Arizona, Indianapolis – none of these teams had the kind of elite line Seattle enjoyed in XL. There are many ways to skin a cat – so the saying goes – and that is true in the NFL. Playmakers compliment an offensive line just as much as an offensive line gives the playmakers the opportunity to produce.

As it happens the Seahawks have tackled both areas. The offensive line is now one of the most expensive in the league as not many teams will start two recent first round picks at tackle, a free agent guard who was a former #2 overall pick, a center drafted in the second round and a right guard drafted in the third after a move down from round two.

That is some serious stock spent on your offensive line.

But the signing of Sidney Rice was equally as vital in my view, as was the re-signing of Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu, the drafting of Golden Tate and the Marshawn Lynch trade. Playmakers are vital. You need someone who will draw coverage and make a defense think twice about stacking the box. You need someone who can stretch the field. You need someone who can be a reliable security blanket who you KNOW is going to catch several passes a game. The Seahawks haven’t had that for many years and without Mike Holmgren running his precision offense that generated the numbers, they needed a big time receiver.

Rice will be 25 in September – coinciding with the time he should be hitting his prime. He has all the tools – except perhaps blistering speed – to be an elite receiver. His presence will not only aid the much desired improvement in the running game, he’ll open up a lot more opportunities for the likes of Williams and  Tate. Was the price high for Sidney Rice? Yes, but I’d rather gamble on salary than draft stock and Rice cost absolutely nothing in terms of picks.

Brandon Mebane appears close to agreeing terms with the Seahawks, filling a gigantic hole (literally and figuratively) in the defensive interior. Losing Mebane would make little sense for a franchise hoping to build around players reaching their best years at the right age so it’s a good sign he will be staying in Seattle, albeit probably at a premium price.

Suddenly a team with no key players, nothing to make an opposition team fearful… actually has quite a few pieces to the puzzle. Due to this belief, you suddenly want more. When Seattle’s name suddenly cropped up regarding Nnamdi Asomugha – I felt myself dreaming of an elite addition to the defense. Many fans started to talk about Vince Young believing he could offer more than Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. Even if they hadn’t necessarily noticed, I think Seahawks fans were getting their hopes up – including those who were very disappointed following Hasselbeck’s departure.

This brings me onto the three areas I think need to be filled for us to realistically believe in this team – not just in the NFC West, but in the NFC.

Quarterback

The Seahawks did the right thing moving on from Matt Hasselbeck in my view, but nobody can hide behind the fact that the current two quarterbacks on the roster have major question marks hanging over them. Maybe one of Jackson or Whitehurst grabs this opportunity and runs with it? We’ll find out soon enough.

Even so, the situation remains unresolved as of today in terms of filling a long term need that should’ve been addressed ages ago. People point to next year’s draft and certainly I have some optimism for Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Austin Davis and Kirk Cousins. The rest of the class? Not so much.

Can something still be done this summer? I’m not going to rule it out. I really enjoyed this piece by ESPN’s Mike Salk almost imploring Mike Brown to trade Carson Palmer. Lots of people have slammed the door shut on a potential trade this year. Listen – there have been negotiations on a trade between the teams. Palmer IS Pete Carroll’s #1 option. Some took smug delight (heaven knows why) in the press conference this week where Brown simply reiterated what he’s said all along as if this time it was particularly defining. He will trade Palmer. Maybe it will be next year? Maybe it will be five weeks into the season? Yes Mike Brown wants to make his point, but if he gets a deal he likes now…

The Bengals have big needs. If you want to try and solve one of those needs, one option is a trade. The Bengals have been bystanders in free agency, losing their top free agent Jonathan Joseph and trading Chad Johnson. Putting Palmer on the ‘did not show’ list won’t help them make up the cap limit but trading him for a veteran will. If you’re trying to drive a hard bargain, then reiterating a stance of ‘no deal’ via a much publicised press conference is one way to do it. If the Seahawks want a quarterback who can still get it done in the NFL, who can add veteran leadership and be an excellent bridge option to the future, then put together a package that will get this done. If it creates other holes at the same time, well isn’t that what free agency is for?

Perhaps next year’s draft will provide the answer instead, but it’s an area that will be addressed.

Defensive End

Chris Clemons had an excellent year rushing the passer in 2010 and will be the teams top LEO this year by the looks of things. Keeping Mebane and adding Alan Branch improves the quality/depth ratio on the defensive line but with Raheem Brock in limbo, the Seahawks need to see what else is out there.

Ray Edwards is unsigned and Osi Umenyiora could be traded. The Seahawks were linked to both before free agency began, but haven’t been mentioned in relation to that pair since the lockout ended. The LEO position is designed for sack production and Pete Carroll may believe it’s an area that doesn’t require major free agency dollars. Even so, can you imagine a line with another proven pass rusher included?

Beyond Edwards and Umenyiora (and it’s important to remember both have played alongside other very talented players in Minnesota and New York) there aren’t a ton of alternatives. However, either would fit comfortably into the rotation, they have the right size and skill set. Can a deal be done? Who knows. This may be an area that gets the treatment in the future, but there are options open for the Seahawks to explore now if cap room allows.

*Update* Ray Edwards agreed to join the Atlanta Falcons today.

Cornerback

Marcus Trufant will be 31 in December and hasn’t reproduced the form that earned him a Pro-Bowl selection in 2007 and a fat new contract. Injuries have played a part, but at times he’s been a liability in coverage and has become prone to penalties. A better defensive line and improved T.O.P. from the offense would help, as would greater support in the secondary. Trufant has been flanked predominantly by Kelly Jennings the last few years and could line up across from untested sophomore Walter Thurmond this season.

Eric Wright, Jonathan Joseph and seemingly Nnamdi Asomugha are out of contention in free agency – but Antonio Cromartie remains available. For all his criticisms, he’s a good starting corner in this league who matches the size criteria set out by the Seahawks. He likely won’t return to New York if they sign Asomugha. Of course, having invested a lot in the secondary during the most recent draft (albeit with later round picks) the Seahawks may be happy to give their young guys a chance to compete and ultimately start.

Is a combination of a Palmer trade, defensive end signing and cornerback addition too much to ask from this single free agency? Almost certainly. It’s Madden ’12 territory. Pipe dreams. If they find a way to pull it off in the next 12 months though, then teams are going to start giving the Seahawks a lot more respect.

Michael Huey (OG, Texas) has signed for the Seahawks as an UDFA. Seahawks Draft Blog revealed the team’s interest in the former Longhorn, confirming the news in this article last week. You may also remember this piece in May that touted two potential free agent signings via a cryptic musical clue. Huey was the ghostbuster’s reference.

The same source revealed interest in Houston Texans full back Vonta Leach (who name checked the Seahawks as a potential home last week).

Trades are now formally allowed and seemingly will be disclosed once agreed, despite the inability to complete deals until later in the week. There’s been lots of news so far, so let’s get into it…

Matt Hasselbeck

All the talk today is that Hasselbeck will not be staying in Seattle. There’s been speculation about a big offer on the way from Tennessee and Michael Lombardi reiterated that suggestion. Steve Young put the 49ers into focus yesterday by suggesting they could be a possible suitor. Danny O’Neil lists the Seahawks among interested parties and it seems clear he at least remains an option for Seattle.

No deal can be completed with anyone but the Seahawks at this stage, so if Hasselbeck is staying in the PNW it could be concluded before free agent deals can be officially announced. I suspect the situation remains fairly fluid – the Seahawks don’t want to commit too much money and years to a soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback with recent injury history and a not spectacular statistical record. At the same time, they don’t want to cut their nose off to spite their face at the quarterback position. If Hasselbeck gets a remarkable deal elsewhere, he’ll have to weigh up the offer (if it remains) from Seattle and decide what is the best move. That could be staying with the Seahawks.

*Update*– A news service called @incarceratedbob is reporting Hasselbeck and Tennessee have agreed terms in principle (link below). Nobody else has confirmed or denied this yet:

http://twitter.com/#!/DavisHsuSeattle/status/95909243479261184

Carson Palmer

The Bengals held a press conference today fronted by owner Mike Brown who reiterated his stance on not trading Carson Palmer. The general reaction is that the concept of a potential trade is now dead.

It’s a hard sell to argue anything else at this stage. Palmer could still force the Bengals hand by turning up at training camp, absorbing a salary of $12m and making life difficult at a time when the Bengals wish to move on. The statement today may even have been an attempt to call the quarterback’s bluff on retirement.

And let’s be honest, if you’re not faced with a brilliant offer at this stage, why rush if you’re Cincinnati? You have your replacement quarterback. Problems only start if Palmer decides to show up and I understand he’s in Cincinnati today and met with the Bengals owner.

Nevertheless, a deal hasn’t been completed and we’ll have to wait and see if Palmer rides off into the sunset or not.

Kevin Kolb

No trade as of yet between Philadelphia and Arizona. The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that the Seahawks remain a possible trade partner. Jason La Confora believes the Eagles would want a first round pick from Seattle. Either way it appears to be a two-horse race with two NFC West rivals being used to drive up the price. This twitter account namechecking the NFL Network even insists Seattle has over taken Arizona in the Kolb stakes.

Trading the #25 overall pick for Kevin Kolb in the 2011 draft would’ve been understandable. It’s a similar range to where he was originally drafted by the Eagles and it would’ve at least enabled Seattle to invest in the long term future at quarterback. Trading an unknown first round pick in 2012 is a completely different situation and should be avoided at all costs.

For example, if Kolb struggles in year one without the assortment of offensive weapons he enjoyed in Philly, he could end up costing a top ten pick. That would be a hard sell for this front office and could forever define the new regime, particularly if it prevented the Seahawks drafting a top young passer in the draft. That’s a huge gamble.

Of course the other angle is should success come Seattle’s way in 2011 with Kolb under center, then it was a risk worth taking. The stakes are high though. 

Charlie Whitehurst

While the mayhem ensues around free agency, Whitehurst quietly arrived at the team’s facility today and will be the only quarterback available for the team when training camp begins on Wednesday. His position may strengthen simply by being the man on deck. We’ve stressed before that the Seahawks maintain faith in Whitehurst – they traded for the guy. He may get his opportunity after all.

For the sanity of fans accross the NFL and in particular Seattle, let’s hope this drama has a (positive) ending very soon.

With the lockout now officially at an end (‘excellent‘ – Mr. Burns) excitement is starting to mount as to who will be the Seahawks quarterback next season. Free agency is essentially open for business, although strangely with camp starting on Wednesday and with widespread negotiations allowed nobody can officially sign for a new team until Friday. Expect a lot of leaks and speculation until the truth is uncovered. Let’s look at the candidates…

Matt Hasselbeck

Teams can sign their own free agents from tomorrow, which means if Hasselbeck is staying in Seattle there’s no reason to believe it won’t be concluded before training camp begins on Wednesday. He has the opportunity to test the water and see what alternatives are out there. If the Seahawks maintain interest in re-signing the quarterback (as I understand they do even if he isn’t necessarily the first choice at this stage) then it should be sorted swiftly.

Hasselbeck has a lot of history with the team and the city. He’s respected in the dressing room and the organisation in general. He’s a spirited leader who still has the spark to compete at this stage of his career, as emphasised in a strong playoff victory over New Orleans in the post season. A case can be made that Hasselbeck has familiarity within the team, particularly the receivers, and would maintain a status quo as the offense rebuilds. 

At the same time we’re talking about a soon-to-be 36-year-old who would be the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL. Can you build an offense around a quarterback that essentially won’t be there when it peaks? As ESPN’s Mike Sando pointed out recently, Hasselbeck has the lowest passer rating since 2008 among quarterbacks with at least 35 starts. He’s thrown 34 interceptions during the last two years of regular season play and suffered a spate of injuries in the process.

Would re-signing Hasselbeck simply delay the inevitable parting of ways? And can you justify a new contract beyond 2011 considering his age and injury record?

Kevin Kolb

New Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is a protege of Andy Reid in Philadelphia and the scheme used by both he and Brad Childress in Minnesota was very similar to that used by the Eagles. The Seahawks likewise want to utilise a mobile quarterback who can get the ball downfield and extend plays. Philly have used Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. Minnesota used Tavaris Jackson and Joe Webb. The Vikings adapted slightly for Brett Favre, but that’s understandable.

Kolb would have a very good grasp of what the Seahawks want to do going forward in what remains a Pete Carroll ideology for the offense, with Bevell calling the plays. He fits the mantra physically for what Carroll wants in his quarterback and he’s taken time to learn the pro-game. If the Seahawks traded for Kolb, they’d be making a much needed long term commitment at the quarterback position.

The question is – can Kolb justify the commitment? Look at this footage from the NFL Network’s playbook series. Mike Mayock didn’t necessarily agree with the critique and made this defense the following week. However, there are legitimate concerns. He has a slingy action, he’s been inconsistent as a starter – with turnovers and performance – and he’s suffered injuries. Trading for Kolb would likely be expensive in terms of compensation and then a big contract extension. Not to mention, if he fails the Seahawks are left with an costly bust that could define the Pete Carroll era.

It seems like Kolb is destined for Arizona, but the Seahawks have maintained interest throughout and could still make a late move. After all, they fought Arizona for Charlie Whitehurst.

Carson Palmer

Seahawks Draft Blog has been reporting trade talks between Seattle and Cincinnati for a long time now. The parties talked through a deal and we’ve received information that a trade could be forthcoming. We also understand that Palmer is Pete Carroll’s preferred option at quarterback. We’re not the only ones who aren’t ruling out a trade either – Sam Farmer at the LA Times suggested it could happen, Pat Kirwan reported only this week that he’d spoken to a Bengals source that suggested Mike Brown was not totally against a trade, former Bengals receiver and current NFL analyst Chris Collinsworth suggested Brown will trade Palmer and Shawn Zobel reported earlier this month that league insiders were assuming Palmer would be dealt.

It could be an ideal bridge option if the Seahawks intend to draft a quarterback in the next two years. He’s four years younger than Matt Hasselbeck and has previous history with Pete Carroll and leading receiver Mike Williams at USC. His stats were admirable last year despite the Bengals record and brutal schedule which included games against Baltimore (x2), Pittsburgh (x2), New England, Indianapolis, the New York Jets, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, San Diego, New Orleans and Miami. In 2009, he went 6-0 in the formidable AFC North and won the division.

He’s also suffered injuries like Matt Hasselbeck in recent years and never truly maxed out his potential in Cincinnati as a former #1 overall pick. For every person suggesting a trade is possible, there are ten people willing to tell you there’s no chance Mike Brown cuts a deal.

If the Seahawks can acquire Palmer for the price we reported – a 5th round pick and a conditional 3rd – then it’s an ideal bridge option to the future. The question is, will the Bengals make the deal?

Charlie Whitehurst

Bring up Charlie Whitehurst and the over reactions can be heard all the way on the Moon. The Seahawks made a bold move to trade for the former Clemson Tiger last year, trading a cumulative third round pick to keep him out of Arizona. They held a press conference to announce the trade and it seemed, at least in essence, that a quarterback competition was beginning. Instead, Whitehurst never really came close to unseating a struggling Matt Hasselbeck at any point during the regular season.

Our sources report that the Seahawks top brass maintain a level of faith in Whitehurst. In certain circumstances, they’d be prepared to enter the 2011 season with him as the starter. Whether that actually happens or not is anyone’s guess at the moment, but the front office is faced with a situation where they traded and paid a quarterback for two years work and received very little for the investment.

Although he’s faced a lot of criticism, in neither of his stints in the NFL has he received the opportunity to take starting reps and really lead a team as the bona fide starter. Some will suggest there has to be a reason for that, others will question whether he was ever realistically going to beat out Billy Volek in San Diego or Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle.

The worst case scenario if Whitehurst fails as a starter is the knowledge of that in itself and a high draft pick. The benefit of him succeeding could be a medium or long term starter at quarterback. It’s not a crazy option.

Tavaris Jackson

The rumor mill exploded last week when John Clayton suggested Jackson could be the team’s starter in 2011. He reiterated that point today on 710 ESPN Radio, even going as far to suggest signing him would be at the expense of Matt Hasselbeck on a handsome $6m per year contract for the next two seasons.

It’s an easy association to make because Jackson previously worked with Darrell Bevell and has the physical and athletic attributes the Seahawks are looking for in a quarterback.

Even so, his name has never come up in any conversation I’ve had with our sources and it just seems a bit too much like connecting the dots. Could he be signed as competition and a potential replacement for JP Losman? Sure, that makes a lot of sense. Will the Seahawks be investing $12m in Jackson to be their starter for the next two years? I find that very unlikely indeed, even as a bridge option and a low-risk gamble. If they’re going to go in this direction, I suspect Whitehurst will be given every opportunity to win the starting job during training camp.

Bruce Irvin is on a diet of three quarterbacks a day

Thomas Beekers wrote an interesting piece at Field Gulls today, discussing the LEO position and how it relates to run defense in Seattle’s scheme. It’s a subject I have a lot of time for, because I’ve long stressed the impact on run defense if you’re going to use a floating specialist on the defensive line. It doesn’t really matter who you play on that side, at 250-265lbs you’re giving something up against the run. A lot of potential LEO candidates that were talked about in the 2011 draft class, in my opinion, were never considerations because their run defense was so poor. Trying to find someone who can limit the damage on running downs and provide a spectacular pass rush isn’t easy and it’s why there’s more to the LEO than simply a lack of size and decent speed off the edge.

Beeker’s evidence shows that teams didn’t target Chris Clemons, who was the designated LEO rusher for the Seahawks and enjoyed a career year for sacks in 2010. Opposing teams ran to the left as often as the right and didn’t utilise the lack of size on one side of the defensive line. To some extent I think that’s testament to Clemons but I’m loathe to be overly positive about his performance against the run, because it would be false praise. However, he wasn’t awful and alongside his sack production really the Seahawks went some way to justifying their scheme and usage of the LEO at least for 2010.

As I touched on earlier, when scouting players in the 2011 draft I found very few top-end LEO pass rush candidates that I wanted to put in Seattle’s system. My favorite by a long stretch was Jabaal Sheard who ended up in Cleveland. Not only did he have the necessary strength and surprising run defense potential for a guy playing at 264lbs, but he had the speed off the edge and a repertoire to keep things interesting. In many ways, he could be the ideal LEO rusher. Brooks Reed was another candidate with similar abilities and higher up the board, Aldon Smith could’ve slotted into the role.

The likes of Von Miller, Robert Quinn, Justin Houston, and Adrian Clayborn didn’t appear to be as logical options because of that needed combination of speed + strength, although I understand the team did like Clayborn even if he was never a likely draft pick for the Seahawks.

Looking ahead to the 2011 draft, one player I’ve often spoken about on this blog that excites me a lot is West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin. He played last year as a third-down specialist and earned 14 sacks in limited playing time as a former JUCO transfer. This year, he’s expected to take on a larger role. At 235lbs he’s too small to play as part of a front four, yet there’s so much potential there if he could add 15lbs. We’ll need to see what weight he’s playing at when the season starts and he may already have added weight for his new extended role. Even at 235lbs, he flashed the kind of surprising strength that sparked my interest in Sheard but Irvin’s a much more explosive pass rusher.

He often talks about ‘Beast Mode’ on Twitter and certainly Irvin plays the game the same way as Marshawn Lynch. It’s not just about pure speed and power either, Irvin has elite hand usage and a complete repertoire of moves. There really are no limits to his potential and it’s encouraging to see him flat out beat a guy off the edge with speed on one down, then engage a lineman on the next play before cutting inside and attacking the middle.

Here’s another video compilation courtesy of TMB Draft featuring plays against NC State, Connecticut and Maryland. Irvin has big-time potential and could lead the nation in sacks this year. He is the one LEO candidate I’m pushing this summer and absolutely he has a lot of potential to compete in Seattle’s scheme.

Today I received the first indications that Cincinnati may be playing hard to get over Carson Palmer.

Although I understand the teams previously agreed on a price – set at a 5th round pick and a conditional 3rd rounder – a source separate to the ones we’ve been using on this story has suggested the Bengals are now asking for more. The price in question is so high that it’s unlikely a deal would be completed under those terms.

We’re told that Carson Palmer still remains Pete Carroll’s #1 choice at quarterback for next season.

I have contacted my original sources for more information to see if this is the case. Stay tuned.

Just a few thoughts that are on my mind…

The Seahawks quarterback situation

Chris Sullivan at Thirty Acre Fortress tweeted information today from a source suggesting Carson Palmer was Pete Carroll’s #1 choice to be the Seahawks starting quarterback next season. He also suggested any such deal would be dependant on price. The information goes along with what we’ve previously reported on this blog.

A lot of the talk amongst Seattle’s media over the last 24 hours has been based around a report from John Clayton that the Seahawks may decide against making another offer to Matt Hasselbeck and that Tavaris Jackson could be signed as a replacement starter. None of the sources we use have suggested the team are ruling out keeping Hasselbeck in Seattle. Far from it in fact. I’ve long maintained on this blog the feeling that Palmer or Hasselbeck will be the team’s starter next year. Could they sign Jackson to replace JP Losman as competition and backup? Sure.

However, the concept of Jackson signing to start is unrealistic and is not a suggestion our sources have made to us. The connection is obvious because Darrell Bevell worked with Jackson in Minnesota, but that alone is not reason enough to suggest a deal is imminent. Repeatedly the two names that have cropped up in discussion with our sources are Palmer and Hasselbeck, which does make complete sense. They’re both veteran starters, they are both potential bridge quarterbacks. Palmer has a significant age bonus of four years, but Hasselbeck has familiarity with the team.

I understand – and have had this validated by others – that the Seahawks would’ve been willing to use the #25 overall pick in this year’s draft on a quarterback before the lockout arrived on the scene. They were willing to use that pick to pay Cincinnati for Palmer and went back to the negotiating table with the Bengals after learning they could sign the younger Kevin Kolb for the same price.

Cincinnati – who are more willing to deal than many people assume – eventually settled on a package of picks believed to be a 5th rounder and a conditional third. It wasn’t just Seattle’s purported interest in Kolb that saw the price drop dramatically. Palmer’s huge contract, nessecity to re-negotiate to confirm a trade and desire to move to the Pacific North West also played a part. The Bengals don’t want to be left paying such a big contract or potential drama if Palmer tries to force a trade by turning up to camp. With a salary cap floor included in the new CBA, this also creates a major potential pitfall with Palmer holding all the cards. 

Have things changed since those discussions between the teams months ago? I’m not sure and of course I wouldn’t rule it out. I’m not completely naive to think Mike Brown isn’t capable of putting a spanner in the works. Even so, he wants to move on. Both Palmer and the Bengals mutually agreed to do so at the end of last season and the media war that followed came about because the team held a press conference announcing Palmer had requested a trade. I can only presume this move was made to orchestrate a strong bargaining position, making it seem that the Bengals had not initiated a potential deal and could drive a hard bargain. Palmer’s response was, as we know, to threaten retirement and stop the Bengals receiving any compensation. Mike Brown’s stance has predictably been ever since, ‘go ahead’ and why not seeing as no trade can be completed during a lockout?

So this is my projection based on what I’ve sourced, what others like Chris have reported and considering the characters involved. If the Bengals and Seahawks have agreed suitable compensation, Carson Palmer will be the next starting quarterback of the Seahawks. If the Bengals play hard ball on the price or make new demands – and let’s be fair here, these are talks that could be happening right now for all we know – then the Seahawks are more likely to be aggressive in their pursuit of re-signing Matt Hasselbeck. The end result? Palmer or Hasselbeck in Seahawks blue. That’s what we said months ago, that’s what we’d say now.

Austin Davis the man to watch

I spoke earlier this week about my admiration for Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis. His numbers are impressive – in three years with the Golden Eagles, he’s claimed most of Brett Favre’s quarterback records and notched 74 total touchdowns compared to just 16 interceptions. Last year he passed for 3103 yards, ran for 452 more and scored 30 total touchdowns. He completed 63% of his passes.

He’s an athletic quarterback not only capable of making plays with his legs, but also avoiding pressure. Despite playing behind a suspect offensive line, he was sacked just 17 times. Cam Newton was sacked 23 times in 2010, Greg McElroy was sacked 30 times at Alabama and Matt Barkley – with Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil on the offensive line at USC – 16 times.

Although he doesn’t have the cannon arm, it’s certainly not a weakness. I’m led to believe he’s added weight and improved from a 2010 listed 208lbs to 220lbs for the upcoming season, which could improve his arm strength if it’s upper-body muscle. Certainly he had room on a frame that measures around 6-2 to add some muscle. Is the height an issue? He doesn’t look small on tape and certainly I didn’t notice any issues with passes being batted down at the line of scrimmage. His passing technique is sound, including release and weight distribution.

Davis reportedly drew rave reviews at the Manning Passing Academy recently, which was attended by Andrew Luck and other top name QB’s. He supposedly impressed Archie Manning in particular and reached the final of the accuracy drills alongside Landry Jones.

Indeed the weight gain, if it’s in the right areas, makes me believe this is a guy that truly appreciates what he has to do to max out his potential. If he maintains his athleticism with the extra weight, continues to put up productive numbers and potentially leads Southern Miss to an unbeaten season against a favorable schedule, then I’m convinced he’ll improve his stock to a national level and not just this blog.

At the moment I have Davis with a grade in rounds two or three, with room for improvement. He’s right up there with Kirk Cousins and Landry Jones and warrants a lot more discussion than people are giving him right now.