Month: February 2015 (Page 3 of 3)

I re-ran the SUH scenario for 2016- it actually CAN be done with keeping Irvin and not robbing from Offense- not saying it will happen…

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 9, 2015

@robstaton yes

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

According to this article by Omar Kelly, the Seahawks can look forward to $25m in free cap space this off-season. It’s certainly enough to do whatever they want with their current in-house crew. Russell Wilson will get a new deal. They can afford to give Marshawn Lynch a pay-rise. They can talk contract with Bobby Wagner and J.R. Sweezy. The cost to keep Byron Maxwell probably outweighs his actual value — but you can’t expect to keep everyone.

The idea that on top of all of this you can add a genuine superstar like Ndamukong Suh is, frankly, a little dirty. Yet according to Davis Hsu in the Tweets above — it’s not the pipe dream we perhaps first imagined. You’d have to make cuts elsewhere. But Hsu has calculated you would be able to keep Brandon Mebane in 2015. Presumably it would mean cutting ties with Zach Miller and Tony McDaniel to raise an additional $6m. That seems like an acceptable trade-off.

You could do Suh- even if he was $9M Year 1 (could skip FA TE)- using $130M cap for O/D pic.twitter.com/ZCxD1CG4mf

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

The problems emerge in 2016 and beyond. You’d be under intense pressure to draft well to fill holes. You’d be tight against the cap for a few seasons. Your depth could take a hit. That’s why Hsu offered this note of caution:

I pretty much agree with Corry- SUH possible but not probable & would hurt your depth too much in 2016…

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 10, 2015

But this is Seattle’s Championship window. And it’s not often you get the chance to consider adding a player of Suh’s quality.

This would be the ultimate power move — and also the kind of swing-for-the-fences job this front office had been willing to undertake. Acquiring Sidney Rice in 2011 was seen as a coup at the time. Ditto Zach Miller. The blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin left the league gasping for air. When there’s a big move to be made, the Carroll/Schneider regime have often been bold enough to make it.

As Brian Nemhauser opines in this well put together piece:

“It is extremely rare to have a chance to add a franchise level defensive tackle. Suh is the most unique talent on the market, and happens to address an area the Seahawks have not done a good job of filling via the draft. Spending the money here would make the draft highly focused on offensive options, and that might be the right move anyway.”

Nemhauser is right. The Seahawks haven’t done a good job adding defensive line talent in the draft. They relied on Chris Clemons (via trade) to provide a pass rush for three years. They inherited Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were free agent acquisitions. They moved Bruce Irvin to linebacker. The only moderate success story so far is Jordan Hill — and he provided several weeks of dynamic interior rush before a season-ending injury.

Instead of worrying about life after Mebane or the lack of inside pressure (never more obvious than in the Super Bowl) — here’s your opportunity to land one of this generations top defensive talents. A legitimate star to rival the Gerald McCoy’s and J.J. Watt’s out there. A chance to put a disruptive, stone-walling force of nature alongside Avril, Bennett, Irvin, Mebane and Hill. An opportunity to make your linebackers and secondary even more threatening.

The Seahawks, according to Hsu, can offer the kind of $15m average-per-year salary Suh would command — and still keep most of their existing team together.

And better yet — if you believe Jason Cole’s recent report — the guy actually wants to play in Seattle. “This is his number one choice — because Suh is from the northwest area, grew up in Portland, he’d like to be there.”

Sure, there’s every chance they’d be outbid and this will amount to nothing more than a talking point designed to help us all move on from that interception. But look at the other teams with more cap room than Seattle according to Kelly: Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tennessee, the New York Jets. A who’s who of the NFL’s bottom-dwellers. Suh can be rich and a possible Champion or even richer and go through the motions until the end of his career. After all, he’s 28-years-old now. This contract could be his last. Will four or five years in Cleveland or Oakland provide the ideal final course to a brilliant starter and main?

How about a few years in your native Pacific North West fighting for Championships and maybe even winning a couple?

The move is so tantalizingly attractive you almost have to save yourself from getting sucked in. Suh in Seattle. Imagine it. With Sherman, Thomas, Bennett, Chancellor, Wagner and Avril (his former team mate in Detroit). A collection of talent for the ages. And yet we’re still a month away from the start of free agency. Lions ownership recently expressed some confidence they’d be able to re-sign Suh, with team President Tom Lewand stating: “I think there’s a very, very good chance that we can get something done with him in the next few weeks.” That’s unusually chipper considering everyone expects he’ll be leaving Detroit (they have $15m in cap space to play with).

So what would it mean if they did make a blockbuster move like this? Ultimately, get ready for an almost exclusively offensive-based draft.

They’d have to find a way to replace Byron Maxwell. Even if that was an internal move (Tharold Simon for example) they’d need to add a corner at some stage. There’s nothing stopping them adding a prospect like LSU’s Jalen Collins in round one — a scary proposition for anyone facing the Seahawks defense in 2015. But at some point they’d have to turn it over to the offense. Adding another ‘Seahawks-style’ corner in the mid-to-late rounds is likely, especially if you’re fielding a front four that includes a force like Suh.

That would enable them to focus on drafting for the offense. Receiver would be an early priority. They’d have to look at replacements for Zach Miller at tight end and James Carpenter (potentially) at guard. But this wouldn’t be a problem. The bulk of your offensive line would remain intact. You’d still have Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. You’d still have the receivers and tight ends you had for the bulk of the 2014 season. You’d simply be adding more talent to that group.

Pick your poison. Want to add the high-pointing skills of Jaelen Strong at #31? Want to bring in a hulking seam-busting move-TE like Devin Funchess? Want to go after rare athleticism (Sammie Coates), speed (Phillip Dorsett), chunk plays (Devin Smith) or all-round solidity (Maxx Williams)? You can bring in Ty Sambrailo to play guard if you like. You have all of those options. You are only adding talent. And all the while you look across at that defense…

For all the discussion we’ve had about adding a veteran presence to the receiver’s meeting room and bolstering the weapons for Russell Wilson — nobody would match the impact of Suh in Seattle. Landing him still seems so unlikely and yet so thoroughly attractive. And as Nemhauser points out in his piece on the subject — an offensive-focused draft wouldn’t be such a bad thing anyway.

Jaelen Strong — not a player I’m crazy about. The Seahawks might disagree.

A year ago, the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos were beaten and bruised and trying to plot a way back to the Super Bowl. They’d come close, but not close enough. It was time to make a move.

The Broncos aggressively pursued the free agent market — landing Aqib Talib to fill a hole at corner, T.J. Ward to feature at safety and Emmanuel Sanders to replace the departing Eric Decker. The Patriots — having lost Talib to Denver — went big on the cornerback position. They brought in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

How much of this was down to a rapidly closing window? It had to play a part. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are pushing 40. The opportunity to win a title isn’t going to get any easier with every passing year. We’ve seen how quickly it can diminish in the case of Manning. But this was also about making the necessary moves to close the gap and eventually cross the line. In the case of the Patriots — it worked. The impact of Revis and Browner cannot be underestimated. One perfectly executed jam at the LOS by Browner was worth every penny of his $2.715m cap hit.

When you get so close the urge to be aggressive eats away at you. “What can we do to make sure this doesn’t happen again?” Nobody will ever get closer to a Super Bowl Championship than the 2014 Seahawks. And now they’re faced with a similar conundrum. What are they going to do at wide receiver (or tight end?) — and how aggressive do they want to be?

It’s the biggest need on two levels. For starters, it’s a pure numbers game. Jermaine Kearse is a restricted free agent. Doug Baldwin, Kevin Norwood and Chris Matthews are under contract. Paul Richardson might be set for a Navarro Bowman style ‘red shirt’ year. Ricardo Lockette is an exclusive rights free agent. Basically, you need another receiver. Secondly — you just need to get better here. Never was that more obvious than the decision to target Lockette on the decisive play to try and win a Super Bowl. You can’t lose Golden Tate, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin and expect to be OK in the talent department.

This isn’t about throwing the ball more or diverting from a run-first identity. It’s about making the most out of the times you do throw. Nearly all of Seattle’s 2013 and 2014 defeats carried a similar theme — man coverage in the secondary and receivers not getting open, with a stacked box attacking the offensive line to pressure Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks are crying out for a receiver who warrants considered attention even within a run-based offense. Or at least a guy who can make plays when he’s covered.

The front office identified this need when they were trying to shop Harvin during the season. They tried to deal him for Juluis Thomas, Jordan Cameron or Coby Fleener. They later had talks with Tampa Bay over Vincent Jackson — the Buccs were interested in a trade, but wanted too much.

Ever since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle they’ve been searching for an X-Factor. In 2010 they talked to Brandon Marshall and considered a move for Jackson. In 2011 they went big to sign Rice and Zach Miller. By 2013 they pulled off the big trade for Harvin. Now they face re-opening the search. They have to keep looking.

A dynamic receiver or tight end who demands attention and game-planning is crucial to take this offense to the next level. It’ll take some of the up-front pressure away from Wilson and the O-line if it forces teams into more considered coverage looks — it’ll also help open up the running game. The big shots Wilson took in the Super Bowl to Matthews? Wouldn’t it be great if they had a receiver who could do that on a regular basis? And that’s not to say Matthews won’t be able to — but we only have one game’s evidence from a player who turns 26 in October. It’s also one thing to exploit Kyle Arrington — Matthews had less success going up against Browner.

There are other ways this team can be ‘aggressive’ of course. People will argue about bolstering the offensive line — although I’m not sure how you’re going to do that in free agency. I’d also argue the replacement of James Carpenter with a first round pick in this class will have a marginal overall impact on the offense. The conversation this week has focused on Ndamukong Suh. It’s not impossible but would take a major clear-out (Mebane, McDaniel, Miller) to stand any chance. It would also create problems down the line if you want to re-sign some of your home-grown stars. It’s more likely he signs a +$100m contract elsewhere.

Eventually you come back to WR/TE as the most likely focus. This is an aggressive front office. They will go after key needs. In 2011 they made it clear improving the league worst rushing offense was the key — so they draft James Carpenter and John Moffitt and sign Robert Gallery. They wanted better targets so landed Rice and Miller. In 2012 they said they wanted speed in the front seven so they go out and draft Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner. A year later they make a splash for Harvin and also sign Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.

The only off-season where they haven’t been overly active was 2014 — weeks after they won the Super Bowl. This is not a front office that has ever stood still or been complacent with a need.

So how do they approach the WR/TE situation?

1. Wouldn’t it be great if Russell Wilson had a target he can grow with? Someone with a similar attitude and love for the game. Someone who wants to create a chemistry comparable to Romo/Bryant or Brady/Gronk. Someone who won’t question the quarterback, someone who won’t be divisive in the locker room. Wilson’s guy.

2. How badly do they need a veteran presence in that wide receiver room? While drafting a receiver to work with Wilson is preferable — Doug Baldwin’s recent antics hint at a position group that is crying out for a leader. Finding a proven receiver is also the best way to deliver an instant impact. You won’t have to go through the inevitable rookie growing pains — although Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Kelvin Benjamin and several others showed it’s possible to succeed early in your career.

Spending a high draft pick on a receiver would be the cost effective way of dealing with this situation — and that might be necessary with so many looming contract to renew. But they do have $23m in cap space according to Spotrac and that will only increase if they cut Zach Miller ($3m saving), Tony McDaniel ($3m saving) or Brandon Mebane ($5.5m saving). Ideally you’d keep Mebane, but they’ll have to judge how serious his hamstring injury is. Essentially you could lose Miller and McDaniel and put $6m towards a free agent receiver or tight end. Of course, you also make a $7m saving if Marshawn Lynch departs.

Let’s look at some of the possibilities:

Free agency

The two names that stand out are Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. There’s almost no chance Bryant reaches the open market — Jerry Jones would cut half his team if it means they keep Dez. Thomas is also unlikely to make it out of Denver considering the Broncos have $26.6m in cap space to play with.

After that the options aren’t great. Nobody should expect the Seahawks to sign Michael Crabtree. Jeremy Maclin isn’t getting out of Philadelphia. Randall Cobb probably has no interest in leaving Green Bay — plus they can easily re-sign him with $24m in cap space.

The best option might be Torrey Smith (Baltimore has only $3m to play with at the moment). He’s a frustrating player who flirts with genuine brilliance and then disappears for several weeks. It’s hard to determine how much he can expect to receive on the open market.

Even if the big names reached free agency — the Seahawks are unlikely to be an appealing option. The passing game takes a back seat and you might only get 3-4 targets in a game. They will be able to offer the opportunity to play for a contender, but you’d expect they’d have to overpay to seal the deal. And they don’t have the cash to overpay.

The tight end position might provide some relief here. Jordan Cameron reportedly wants out in Cleveland while the Broncos might struggle to pay Demaryius and Julius Thomas (particularly with an extension looming for Von Miller). Jermaine Gresham will almost certainly test free agency. For $6-8m (the price of Miller and McDaniel) you might be able to lure Thomas or Cameron to Seattle. When healthy, both players offer genuine dynamism over the middle and in the red zone. But both players carry significant health risks. Last year you could franchise tag a tight end for $7.035m. Cleveland and Denver could go down that route.

Veteran cuts

There are mixed reports on whether Brandon Marshall will be cut in Chicago. Some people are suggesting it’s a done deal while others believe he will stay with the Bears. They have enough cap room to keep him ($23m) and still improve a terrible defense.

Marshall is a fierce competitor and the type of receiver Seattle lacks. But he can also be a divisive figure. This piece by Rick Morrissey from the Chicago Sun-Times sums up some of the feeling he’s generated over the last 12 months. Is he capable of being the calming force in the receiver’s meeting room? Can he lead by example? Will he take pressure away from Russell Wilson instead of creating more drama for the young quarterback?

Larry Fitzgerald would be the ideal addition. His cap hit in 2015 is a remarkable $23.6m and it never dips lower than $17.35m between now and the end of the 2018 season. There’s very little room for Arizona to re-work this deal and as things stand they’re $8.6m OVER the salary cap for 2015. They have to make savings somewhere — and this might be a difficult, painful and inevitable decision.

If Fitzgerald enters the market, nearly every team in the league will want to meet with him. Even in his 32nd year he’s still a remarkable physical talent. He’s definitely one of the hardest working players in the league. As his role in the Arizona offense shockingly diminished — he didn’t complain. He is the definition of a model pro.

The Seahawks need someone like Fitzgerald to lead their group of young receivers, rally behind Wilson at quarterback and be a go-to target for the next 2-3 years. Would he make the move? After a few frustrating years with the Cardinals, will he seek out a high-octane passing offense? As a fiercely loyal player would he dare join a bitter division rival in the midst of a Championship window? Are there teams out there who can pay him a lot more money? How much will he be motivated by chasing a ring?

The Minnesota Vikings make a great deal of sense with their $18m cap room and need for a receiver like this. He can return home, leave the NFC West and move on. The Seahawks would surely have interest in Fitzgerald if he reaches the open market. He’s the ideal option. But would he be able to stomach competing for one of Arizona’s division rivals?

Trades

I doubt the Seahawks would consider another blockbuster trade, but a modest deal for the right receiver seems possible. One option stands out and that’s Vincent Jackson. The Buccaneers fielded calls for V-Jax during the season and Seattle were one of the teams to show interest. Will their demands lower this off-season? It’s hard to say.

Tampa Bay will select a quarterback with the #1 pick and there’s every chance that rookie will start this year. It’d make sense to let him throw to Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jackson as he eases into the pro-game. But did Evans’ brilliant rookie season make Jackson expendable? The Buccs had a fire sale before the trade deadline as they re-shaped the roster. If they want to get younger, dealing V-Jax for a mid-round pick makes sense — even with $23m in free cap space.

The big issue is Jackson’s contract. Whoever deals for him will want to re-work his salary. He’s 32 and set to earn $12.2m in 2015 and 2016. That’s too much. To force a trade and play for a contender, you’d have to expect he’d be open to a deal. The Buccs might just cut him and save $8m — he has to know that is possible.

For two or three years Jackson could be a really effective weapon for a team. He can still get downfield, he goes up and makes plays and he’s a big time red zone option. If you can get his salary down — he’d be a key addition.

The draft

There’s another reason why I think this could end up being the most likely solution. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing the value to be had at corner (Jalen Collins), defensive end (Eli Harold), running back (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon) and other positions. But over the years the Seahawks haven’t been afraid to reach to fill needs. I actually really liked James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin in college (physical brilliance + production). But both picks were cited as reaches. The Seahawks didn’t really care.

Even last year — Justin Britt in round two was a clear reach. But they knew, without a third round pick, it was now or never to get a right tackle they liked. There’s every chance the Seahawks will simply identify a receiver they like who will be available at #31 and take the guy. Address the situation and don’t look back. It’s what they’ve done before.

What if a lot of the other appealing options are gone? Let’s say they like the guys we’ve talked about — Collins, Harold, Gurley and others. They could all be gone by #31 anyway.

Personally I’d rather acquire one of the veterans above and hunt for a younger receiver later on. The value appears to be much stronger in rounds 2-4 this year (Agholor, Lockett, Dorsett, Hardy, Mayle). You could argue there’s only three receivers worthy of going in the first round (Cooper, Parker, White). But if your hand is forced? Who are we talking about?

I’m not crazy about Devin Funchess — a huge target who should be better than he is. He’d offer everything the Seahawks lack in terms of size. He could split out wide, play move-TE. He should dominate over the seam. But he’s just so underwhelming. I can’t imagine him playing for the Seahawks. Not within this group. Sammie Coates has T.O. size, fantastic athleticism and muscle tone. He’s strong. He has a good character. But the inconsistency he flashes is beyond frustrating. Would they take a chance on potential? Maybe. I wouldn’t be shocked. But you’d be taking a big risk on a prospect with so many flaws in his catching technique.

I’m a big Devin Smith fan and I don’t buy all the snobbery over his downfield production vs conventional routes. The guy makes chunk plays and that’s not always easy. He high points the football. He makes circus catches look easy. He flashes a bit of DeSean Jackson, a bit of OBJ. You can work on the shorter routes. If he was brilliant working over the middle on slants he’d be going in the top-15. It’s like critiquing any player who goes late first vs early first. You can’t expect the finished product in that range. But is another smaller, sudden athlete the answer for Seattle’s offense? After watching Matthews in the Super Bowl — do they need to go bigger?

We’ve talked enough about Dorial Green-Beckham to avoid going over old ground. Teams will do their homework. I think there’s more to the situation in Missouri than a couple of run-ins with the law and that’s that. We’ll see. He has all the talent in the world but if he’s still there at #31 that speaks volumes.

And that brings us to Jaelen Strong. Not a player I’m all that fond of. He’s a bit of a plodder in terms of speed. He lacks suddenness getting into his breaks. He struggles to separate on short or long routes and every catch seems to be contested. Yet he is adept at high pointing the ball, making spectacular grabs and you can’t fault his production (2287 yards, 17 TD’s in two seasons). I like his character — modest, mature, well spoken. He could mesh with Wilson. He’s not my favorite player in the draft — but he might end up being Seattle’s.

I don’t currently see a tight end worthy of going at #31. Maxx Williams is a really solid prospect who does everything well — but he doesn’t have difference making size or speed. I think he’ll end up being a good pro — but it’s hard to imagine he’ll offer a passing game the kind of jolt Seattle is looking for. I think he’ll be a second round pick.

The Seahawks are going to address receiver and/or tight end with some gusto — I’m sure of that. We could see a Cameron or Thomas arrive in free agency, with the #31 pick going on the best receiver available. It might be an even bigger splash — trading up for example, or making a deal with Larry Fitzgerald. Either way, this seems like the position to focus on the most heading into free agency next month. And from there, we’ll have a better idea on what they intend to do in the draft.

Todd McShay published his second 2015 mock draft today and had the Seahawks taking Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia) with the #31 pick. Here’s the blurb:

It’s been rumored recently that the Seahawks could sign Marshawn Lynch to a long-term deal this offseason (he’s entering the final year of his contract), but I’ll believe that when I see it. If Lynch isn’t with Seattle beyond the 2015 season, Gurley is a perfect replacement. He was a top-15 talent in this class prior to tearing his ACL this season, a powerful downhill runner who also has excellent speed — the best NFL comparison I can come up with for Gurley is Lynch. The Seahawks would have to be comfortable with his health situation, but he could be an ideal successor to Lynch. They could also look to address offensive or defensive line here.

McShay is clearly skeptical about Seattle’s ability (or desire) to extend Marshawn Lynch’s contract, but this isn’t a pick made to immediately replace Beast Mode. He says “if Lynch isn’t with Seattle beyond the 2015 season” — so he’s making this move with Lynch finishing out his contract.

I don’t know. Given the volatility of the situation the idea of paying Lynch or even just keeping him for 2015 and then drafting a running back in the first round kind of feels like you’re asking for trouble. Can you imagine the reaction? You can see the headlines now — Seattle plots to replace Lynch.

At the same time, Gurley might need a redshirt year as he battles back from a torn ACL. I can’t think of a better player to replace Lynch long term. You’d sure need some man-management skills to get the team to buy into this. But heck, it’s the Seattle Seahawks not the Seattle Marshawn Lynch’s. Consider this too — as much as this team clearly appreciates Robert Turbin and he’s Russell Wilson’s BFF, can you begin to imagine a backfield next year with Lynch and Gurley? That’s scary.

Another point. How many people right now are talking about Seattle’s redundant kick return game? Gurley, even with his size, is a return specialist — scoring two touchdowns in his short Georgia career and having a third called back last season on a bad call. Even if you want to pace him in year one as a running back, he could offer an immediate impact on special teams (health permitting).

Quite frankly I’d be prepared to go through some of the strife because Gurley is a fantastic talent. I’ve no doubt he’d be a top-15 pick (maybe top ten) without the injury. He is that good. To get him at #31 knowing you had a really good post-Marshawn contingency plan is ideal. Let me refer you to this Lynch-related article by Mike Florio.

This quote stood out to me:

Lynch, who turns 29 in April, is definitely closer to the end of the road than the start of it. Unless the Seahawks can find a solid alternative to Lynch, they’ll be far closer to the end of their road as contenders than the start of it, too.

He’s kind of right, isn’t he? Russell Wilson’s great, but the Seahawks aren’t built like a lot of other teams. The run game is an afterthought for other clubs. Not in Seattle. Wilson, as good as he is, thrives on a situation where the run (via play action, read option etc) is such a threat he can work off it and exploit the commitment teams make up front. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Seahawks or Wilson at his most effective with a JAG running the ball. Maybe I’m wrong. But Lynch is to the Seahawks what Rob Gronkowski is to the Patriots. Replacing him will be the single toughest thing John Schneider has to do over the next few years. It’s probably why they’re even considering a substantial pay increase and contract extension. Delay the inevitable.

Gurley has the talent and punishing running style to be Beast Mode 2.0. They’re different players — Lynch is freakishly strong for a back without amazing size. Gurley is a big back with freakish speed. But the end product is still the same — they’ll beat you up.

It’d be really something to go down this road with so many other needs on the roster — but that’s why you have 10-11 picks and a free agency period. If they want a special player at #31 and a guy who jumps out — Gurley fits the bill.

Here are the other players available at #31 in McShay’s mock that were off the board in mine:

Jordan Phillips (DT, Okahoma)
Bendarick McKinney (LB, Mississippi State)
Cameron Erving (C, Florida State)
Hau’Oli Kikaha (DE, Washington)
Carl Davis (DT, Iowa)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (DE, UCLA)

When I look at this list, there’s nobody I’d prefer to have over Gurley. McKinney isn’t needed as a hulking 3-4 inside backer, while Kikaha probably lacks the length/ten yard split to interest Seattle in round one. Erving can play multiple spots on the offensive line — but there’s some O-line depth in this draft. Davis and Phillips offer incredible size and in Phillips’ case — rare speed and athleticism. But he has an injury history (back) — as does Odighizuwa (hip).

In this scenario it’s hard to argue with McShay’s pick. And as long as you can create some degree of harmony within the locker room after essentially drafting Lynch’s replacement — it’d be a wise investment for the future.

Jalen Collins is really, really impressive

The more I watch of this guy the more I hope he’s even available for the Seahawks at #31. There are two defensive prospects I’d like to see reach the bottom of the first round — Eli Harold (DE, Virginia) and Jalen Collins (CB, LSU). By the combine I think both players might be considered top-20 picks.

McShay has Collins at #26 to Baltimore. I can see it. The more LSU tape you watch the more you convince yourself. He has the complete package. Length, deep speed, recovery speed, fluid change of direction, the ability to high point the ball, excellent form defending the run, he’s a good tackler. The only thing he lacks is game-experience and a bit of technical refinement. The idea of this team and this staff getting to work with Collins is salivating. Hey — I really like the potential of someone like Damian Swann at Georgia. I’d like to see what they could do with him as a later round option. But Collins has legitimate potential to be one of the games top corners. That’s how highly I rate him based on what I’ve seen so far. It doesn’t mean he’ll definitely get there, but he has a shot.

Right now there aren’t many players I’d rather have than Collins from this class. If I had to rank a list of top options it would include Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon — depending on what happens with Lynch. Harold and Collins would be on it too. That might be it for now heading into the combine.

A few thoughts on the situation at receiver

In listing key needs yesterday, I put receiver/tight end at #1 and for good reason. But the more I look at this situation the less convinced I am that the #31 pick is a good spot to take a receiver. McShay’s mock kind of proves that. Cooper, White, Parker, Smith and Green-Beckham are all gone. Even if the first three names are off the board, I’m not totally convinced they’d take DGB in the first or Smith for that matter.

It’s also a position that could probably use a veteran presence. A calming influence. Doug Baldwin’s ridiculous celebration and subsequent penalty in the Super Bowl smacked of immaturity. Since Sidney Rice departed who has been that leading experienced figure in the WR meeting room? Take Zach Miller out of the equation (potentially) and it’s a group desperate for some experience.

Ideally — and it won’t be easy — you add a veteran receiver or tight end who can act almost as a #1 target. It’s going to be hard but not impossible. For example, Davis Hsu today tweeted a way Seattle could acquire Jordan Cameron for $4m in 2015. It means cutting Miller (saving $3m) and not re-signing James Carpenter. You’re banking on Cameron avoiding further concussions and staying healthy. But you would be bringing in a genuine dynamic receiving threat and a legit red zone/seam target.

Offense w Jordan Cameron, No Miller, No Carp, No T-Jack pic.twitter.com/9T30snGMIN

— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) February 5, 2015

I’m not sure you can bring in a Vincent Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald for the same kind of cost. In fact I think we all know it’s almost impossible. You’d have to make other savings or be creative. I’m not convinced Fitzgerald could stomach joining a division rival either, but he’d be the ideal character guy this team needs at the receiver position — plus the dynamic big target Wilson requires. Jackson isn’t quite the same leader, but he’s a brilliant downfield/seam threat even at this stage in his career.

If you can make an addition in free agency, you can shoot for value at receiver. Phillip Dorsett would provide game-changing speed on the outside and downfield, but could also act a kick returner. Tyler Lockett was superb at the Senior Bowl and is another good kick returner. Nelson Agholor has returned kicks at USC and is an underrated receiver in this class. These are players that could go in the second or third round range. Justin Hardy is another name to look out for at the combine — and of course Sammie Coates. Personally I also believe Jaelen Strong, Devin Funchess and Dorial Green-Beckham will be available on day two if you want to take a bigger receiver instead with no kick return qualities.

I don’t think you can go wrong with Dorsett, Lockett, Agholor or Hardy. Even Coates has an explosive, physical element you’d love to have — you just need to work on his consistency.

You can really upgrade the receiver/tight end positions without spending the first pick. There will be a sweet spot in rounds 2-3 here. I think you almost have to manipulate a way to bring in a veteran, before looking at day two of the draft. This free’s you up to potentially look at a Todd Gurley/Melvin Gordon/Jalen Collins/Eli Howard in round one.

I know you’re hurting. I am too. After watching the Super Bowl I went straight to work. As I type it’s 9:14pm and I still haven’t been to bed. I wouldn’t be able to sleep anyway. The Seahawks were a yard away from immortality. An off-season of dynasty talk, debate as to whether they can make it three in a row. Their place in history secured forever.

Instead the Patriots are getting the glory and the celebration and all anyone wants to talk about is one play. One play. One questionable play call, one superb break on the ball by Malcolm Butler. You know what? It was never about just one play. That will not define this team, these coaches, this FRANCHISE. The Seahawks aren’t going anywhere. The NFC West? Weaker. The NFC challengers? Who scares you?

Russell Wilson. Earl Thomas. Richard Sherman. Michael Bennett. Beast mode? Why not? They’ll be ready. You’re going to let one play break this bond? You’re going to dedicate all of your energy to one play — however crucial?

Look through the game and you’ll find it was more than just a solitary slant to the inside. It was four consecutive scoreless offensive drives to end the game. It was giving up 14 fourth quarter points when you were in total control at 24-14. It’s about dropped passes when you’re driving to extend your lead. It’s about a first quarter where your quarterback doesn’t complete a pass and your receivers can’t get open. It’s about injuries — lots of them. Those who could make the field were banged up. It’s about a lack of pass rush outside of the sensational Bennett. It’s about leaving K.J. Wright to cover Rob Gronkowski on an island twice, once for a big touchdown. It’s about 3rd and 14 conversions and off-side penalties. It’s about deciding the world stage is your opportunity to simulate taking a dump to “prove a point” and pick up a dumb penalty.

That play? Decisive. Clinching. But not the only reason for defeat. Over time I think perspective will combat anger and prove victorious.

This was a messy game by the Seahawks across the board and they almost found a way to win anyway. That’s so Seahawks. They should’ve won it. But they didn’t. Not this time.

What’s next?

That was the battle cry from Red Bryant when they won a Super Bowl. It needs to be shouted louder than ever today.

The Seahawks played a messy game against a legendary coach and quarterback combo and still should’ve won a Super Bowl. Can you imagine being offered that scenario at the start of 2010? With one title already secured. Yes it hurts. Sure it does. Would you rather be debating Mariota or Winston this week? Or whether you should give Sam Bradford one last chance? Or whether a coaching team led by Jim Tomsula, Eric Mangini and Geep Chryst is really actually seriously going to take over from Jim Harbaugh?

Week one. Century Link Field. On it.

The disappointment will never go away but it is what it is. This is a great team. A young team. And they have to find a way to channel this anguish into a positive. They need to have the best off-season of their lives — AGAIN. And they need to get back to the big game and make it count this time.

Healthier, cleaner and ready to execute.

And now we’ve got that out of the way, let’s look at the big talking points going forward:

Receiver has to be a priority

It’s a debate we’ve had many times, but never has it been more obvious that the Seahawks need extra talent at receiver. For all the protestation of Doug Baldwin, he and Jermaine Kearse are not capable of leading this group alone. They need help — and so does Russell Wilson. It’s blindingly obvious.

Chris Matthews’ performance simply highlights the absolute need for a dynamic big target. Wilson is accurate enough with the deep ball to give his receiver a shot. Matthews obliged to the tune of 100 yards with sheer positioning, control, size and catching technique. Wilson is capable of so much more as a passer but his development is being held back because he’s being forced to work with a weaker group of receivers every year. This team has lost Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Percy Harvin and one of the replacements — Paul Richardson — might be set for a Navarro Bowman ‘off year’ as he recovers from a serious knee injury. This is need numero uno. It was painful to watch Wilson get 8-10 seconds to end the first quarter and nobody could get open. It was up to Matthews — a guy plucked off the practice squad — to open the passing game up. And on the biggest play of the night they go to Ricardo Lockette.

How can that be right? Where’s your go-to receiver for that type of situation?

Maybe Matthews will prove to be part of the solution? They still need to get another. And it MUST be a player with the capability of making the kind of plays we saw yesterday. Downfield, size and reach advantage, high pointing the football, boxing off defenders and making plays in the red zone. Badwin is a savvy, sometimes explosive receiver and a key part of the team. But he’s not a #1.

But how do you find that in this draft? And can you seriously even begin to contemplate bringing in a veteran (trade or free agency) if you intend to give Marshawn Lynch a pay rise? This is where you’ll end up with a headache. If you were ever going to move up the board to go and get a receiver — last year was the year to do it. Not this year. And the likely options at #31 are not going to be great. They won’t be any better at #63. I just feel there will be some form of ‘splash’ here. High pick, key acquisition, trade. Something.

I just don’t know what it is.

With the 6-5 Matthews breaking out, you almost get the feeling #Seahawks could use some big targets.

— Mike Sando, ESPN.com (@SandoESPN) February 2, 2015

Speaking of Baldwin (and Kearse, et al.), #Seahawks have to get better at receiver: http://t.co/Dhq7LvThAf

— Chris Cluff (@CHawk_Talk) February 2, 2015

Let’s tone down the Bevell hate

Curse him all you want, but let’s have some perspective here. The St. Louis Rams cannot find an offensive coordinator. The Cleveland Browns couldn’t find one. The San Francisco 49ers had to settle on Geep Chryst because they couldn’t find one.

There is not a deep talent pool of offensive coordinators out there. That doesn’t excuse or validate Darrell Bevell, but there’s a genuine tendency among Seahawks fans to shut off any positives and heap so much damning criticism and blame on his shoulders. There’s a reason why so many defensive minded coordinators received Head Coaching positions at the end of the season. There’s a real dearth of quality play callers/designers. I don’t really fancy lounging around in no-man’s land like the Rams or simply appointing Tom Cable to the position and asking him to devise a superior passing game.

Whether you want to accept it or not, overall Bevell has had a positive impact on the Seahawks. He helped develop Wilson from a rookie to an established NFL quarterback over three years. Seattle’s offense has ranked #7 in 2013 and #5 in 2014 according to Football Outsiders. He’s not ultra conservative, he’s willing to consider the creative. He has flaws — no question. But your thirst for blood is unnecessary. He messed up. The Seahawks messed up. But why would a team that has made back-to-back Super Bowls and fielded a top-10 offense in both seasons make major unforced changes to its staff? I mean, honestly.

What’s more I trust Pete Carroll — and so should you.

For anyone wondering, Carroll called Darrell Bevell "crucially important to our future'' today.

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) February 2, 2015

Cornerback might be a bigger need than we thought

Unless Byron Maxwell receives an unexpected frosty market next month, he’s likely a gonna. The position is too important — and too weak in the draft — to not expect Maxwell to get paid (Jacksonville anyone?). Seattle’s vaunted production line has been able to produce so many cheap, talented corners. But now they’re in somewhat of a bind. Tharold Simon just doesn’t look good enough to start every week. Jeremy Lane is going to have to battle to start the season. This is a need.

Maybe they will find the next Maxwell, Browner or even Sherman in the draft? It’s one position they’ve had a lot of success with. But it’s hard to imagine this positional group not receiving some attention in the off-season — and it might be a bit more than a mere later round pick. But they’d need a reason to draft a corner early — and that might be an issue too. Who’s out there? The final day of the combine will be fascinating viewing.

What happens with Marshawn Lynch?

Ian Rapoport reported before the Super Bowl that Seattle would offer Lynch a big new contract extension. The thing is — if the report is accurate — there’s no guarantee Lynch will sign it.

How much does he want to continue? How much longer does he want to wage war on the media and the league? Will $10m in 2015 be seen as adequate compensation and enough respect? Will he ever be able to trust a coaching staff that put the game on Ricardo Lockette at the one yard line instead of their best offensive player?

I have a hard time imagining Lynch quitting the game. But I also have a hard time imaging a harmonious atmosphere between Lynch and his superiors. He’s a players player, not a coaches favorite. Will he have the motivation and desire to go and get hit several times repeatedly when he can set up a temporary store in Arizona and make $200,000 during Super Bowl week?

This is a situation that needs a conclusion ASAP. All the other domino’s won’t fall until the Seahawks know what’s happening with Lynch. Are they going to have $7.5m in cap space to play with (and a gigantic hole to fill) or will they lose some money against the cap and the opportunity to upgrade other positions in free agency?

I’ll probably do a mock draft tomorrow, or at least go through someone else’s and see what was available for Seattle. It’s draft time.

The Seahawks just lost the Super Bowl on one of the worst playacts in Super Bowl history. No. The worst.

— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) February 2, 2015

With under 30 seconds to go, Bill Belichick decided this was going to be it. Seattle’s offense vs New England’s defense.

Just moments after the latest crazy catch in Patriots’ Super Bowl history, the Seahawks were going in. The next play worked perfectly. A stuffed run in bounds, killing the clock. Brady is reduced to a spectator. This is it.

The Seahawks are set. They have a time out. The watching world thinks this is going to be a run. And somewhere, in the mind of whoever made the ultimate decision, that fact jumps out.

Darrell Bevell probably made the call, but I’m not going to just assume that until we get some form of confirmation. It could’ve been an audible. It’s a classic debate I’ve heard many times on Brock and Salk this year. Why do offensive coordinators over think situations? Sometimes the obvious play really is the right play.

EDIT — everyone is rushing to accept the blame, which isn’t surprising:

Carroll says he made the call not Bevell. "I said throw the ball,".

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) February 2, 2015

Darrell Bevell: "I call the plays." The plot thickens.

— Conor Orr (@ConorTOrr) February 2, 2015

ESPN – Reporting: Seahawks coach Pete Carroll took blame for INT in end zone, but QB Russell Wilson says "I put the blame on me" BEAST MODE!

— Tony Softli (@SoftliSTL) February 2, 2015

In this scenario another stuffed run and a time out would’ve been just fine. Just fine. But Seattle went for the unpredictable. A pick play with Ricardo Lockette running a slant. In fairness, the play worked to a tee. There is Lockette primed to make the play of his life. And he gets mugged. Malcolm Butler fights to the ball to be the one who gets the glory. He beats Lockette. The Patriots win.

Here’s the play. Lockette has to do a better job here:

Here's Lockette losing at the catch point https://t.co/SxXGIfNOV2

— Danny Kelly XLIX (@FieldGulls) February 2, 2015

Ultimately it kind of compounds the decision to throw it. You’re going to put the Championship on a short throw to Lockette in traffic with a time out remaining? It was asking for trouble. It would’ve been so much easier to stomach if they’d just at least run it one more time and used that time out. This wasn’t a desperation play call. The whole situation was in Seattle’s control.

Breathtaking.

The look on Richard Sherman’s face said it all. Total disbelief, a little anger, a heck of a lot of frustration.

One play (or one play call) will be the talk of Seattle sports for an entire off-season. I do quickly want to add another perspective.

The Seahawks had a ten point second half lead and all the momentum. On offense they were moving the ball at will and the usual second-half adjustments had slowed down Brady and the Patriots offense. It was drifting towards a comfortable victory. Then two things happened:

1. The offense stalled
Three consecutive possessions ended very quickly with no time taken off the board. Even a field goal drive at that point further tires out the Patriots and makes it an ominous looking 13-point deficit. The Seahawks failed to score a point in their final four offensive drives despite looking mostly in control. The Pats couldn’t contain Wilson, Lynch was running well. And they couldn’t finish.

2. 3rd and 14 conversion changed the game
There’s no getting away from how tough this group played with the LOB banged up, Cliff Avril out with a concussion and Jeremy Lane suffering a horrendous broken arm. But they found a way to impact the game in the second half. Brady faced a 3rd and 14 deep in his own territory. Seattle rushed the edge, left an opening in the pocket which he exploited and converted on a 21-yard strike. That drive ended in a touchdown. Game on. At the time it didn’t feel too significant. With hindsight, that was a killer. Another punt there and Seattle has field position and a chance to get that elusive score to possibly win the game.

In both situations the Seahawks hurt themselves. Throw in the way the game ended and it feels like the Seahawks gave it away. That’s the hard part. And that’s not to take anything away from a spirited New England fightback. Few teams would’ve mustered that against Seattle. The Patriots were hurting too — they were tiring. And they fought til the end. But the best finishing team in the league couldn’t finish this one. The Patriots outscored Seattle 14-0 in the final quarter.

The Seahawks were a yard away from back-to-back Championships. I cannot imagine even Brady driving down with seconds remaining to get at least a field goal. And the Wilson-to-Lockette play call will go down in Seattle sports history. Everything was set up for the win — the west coast Super Bowl, the crowd advantage, the ten point lead, Wilson driving and ready to add another chapter to his amazing story.

These moments are so rare — it’s difficult to make it this far. We’ve seen that this year, with all the adversity this team faced to make it back to the Super Bowl. To be that close — that’s the cruel aspect.

This team is young enough and good enough to win future title’s. But they won’t repeat. All because of one little yard.

I guess the only thing to say is: Onto the draft. Seattle picks 31st overall.

EDIT #2 — Reader ‘Ho Lee Chit’ has a clear breakdown of the situation here (plus a fairly relevant user name):

Carroll explained it clearly. The Hawks have a three play series in that situation that is designed to take the clock down. They put three WR’s on the field expecting NE to match up. The Patriots did not match up and went with their goal line package of heavy defenders because they knew the Hawks would just hand off to Marshawn and he would walk into the end zone. The goal line defense against the three WR set left the Hawks with no TE’s and not enough blockers. They had to throw quickly and come back for the next play. Against the heavy defense the slant route was wide open. The defender just make a miraculous play. Obviously, he had watched film and read the slant perfectly. Nine of ten times the defender cannot get there in time to stop the TD let alone intercept the ball. Carroll also said, when NE came out in their heavy defense to stop Marshawn, Pete gave the order to throw the ball rather than call time out.

Here’s Carroll’s explanation:

Carroll's explanation on the play call. #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/r941DfqVg6

— Liz Mathews 710 ESPN (@Liz_Mathews) February 2, 2015

The #Seahawks have offered RB Marshawn Lynch a huge new extension, sources say. More coming on #GameDayMorning http://t.co/vu0JD2HKXo

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 1, 2015

Here’s more from Ian Rapoport:

The Seattle Seahawks not only want Marshawn Lynch around next year, but they’ve made a significant commitment to keep him on their team, possibly, for the rest of his career.

On the heels of another dominant season for the running back nicknamed “Beast Mode,” multiple sources tell me Seattle has made Lynch an offer on a huge contract extension that would keep him in a Seahawks uniform for years to come.

The deal is believed to include more than $10 million for Lynch in the 2015 season alone. Lynch currently is slated to make $5 million in 2015, the final year of what originally was a four-year, $31 million deal.

The Seahawks believe that Lynch, who has rushed for at least 1,200 yards in each of the past four seasons, has outplayed his contract, sources say. They want to reward him for his work.

This is a stunning turnaround from where the Seahawks were with Lynch earlier in the season. For a variety of issues — including Lynch’s somewhat chilly relationship with coaches, his age and his hefty salary — the expectation was that Seattle wouldn’t bring Lynch back for another season. But the way Lynch has played and led this team to another Super Bowl forced the Seahawks to reverse course.

This is obviously big news and a statement of intent with major ramifications. Presuming such a deal satisfies Lynch, the cap hit for Seattle in 2015 (currently $8.5m) will rise. The Seahawks are doing what it takes to keep one of their best players — and one of the best players in the league — on their roster.

As we discussed yesterday — who is harder to replace? Byron Maxwell, James Carpenter or Marshawn Lynch? It’s an easy question to answer. Maxwell, as the top free agent corner set to hit the market, was probably always going to be out of reach for Seattle. Replacing Carpenter might be seen as a greater draft priority. They might have to sacrifice other veterans like Zach Miller to create funds. Russell Wilson is obviously going to get paid — but is there any scope to re-up Bobby Wagner and J.R. Sweezy?

These are all questions we’ll get into in the coming days after the Super Bowl. But the big news today is — the Seahawks are pulling out all the stops to keep Beast Mode in Seattle. If he wants more money, if he wants more respect — here it is.

Now go win another Championship.