Two things to listen to today. Firstly, a radio appearance on 750 ‘the game’ in Portland on the John Canzano show:
Secondly — a new live stream running through a two-round mock draft (plus further thoughts on the Seahawks):
Month: March 2022 (Page 2 of 5)
I wrote yesterday about my preference for the Seahawks in this draft.
The options are so good to add defensive players with special qualities and that should be the priority.
Plan A would be taking an edge rusher like Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. Plan B would be selecting Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr.
To me there’s a stark difference between this quartet and Charles Cross and Trevor Penning. They’re not bad players by any stretch. I’m just not convinced they can be great or impactful.
It is worth nothing, however, that after recording 29 reps of the bench press at his pro-day today, Penning registered a TEF score of 3.06. His weighted TEF is 99.5. It makes him an explosive tester to go along with a 4.89 forty and increases his chances of going early (potentially to the Seahawks).
In round two I think you have to take a linebacker because the options are so good. You also have another high second rounder.
As much as I like Johnson and Thibodeaux there is something very appealing about tapping into Georgia’s outstanding defense. If you take Wyatt as your long-needed interior disruptor and then select Channing Tindall in the second round, that would be an understandable approach. You could then target an edge rusher at #41 or #72.
Either way, the draft is stacked with defensive talent. This feels like an exciting opportunity to create a young, dynamic unit that can carry this team forward as it seeks a long term future at quarterback.
However — the inability so far to add at the two offensive tackle positions is problematic. The Seahawks have a tendency of letting needs linger into the draft then forcing picks.
I hate the idea of reaching on an offensive tackle at #9. And I do think Cross or Penning would be a reach.
This is why I was rooting for Trent Brown to sign. Not because I necessarily coveted him as a player, or felt he would elevate the Seahawks to new heights on the O-line. Really it was just about filling a void and decreasing the chances of any temptation to force an O-line pick in round one.
It’s interesting though that so far they’ve shown only interest in Brown — best at right tackle — and reportedly they retain some interest in bringing back Brandon Shell (also a right tackle). Worryingly, it does feel a bit like they’re not actively seeking a left tackle. Until they do, I fear they’ll pass-up the opportunity to add a great defensive talent with their top pick.
They could of course target someone like Tyler Smith — perhaps in round two or by moving back into the first where he’s getting some buzz (I don’t think he should go that high). If they’re going to do that for a tackle, I would much prefer them to go after right tackle Abraham Lucas.
He is probably the only player I can get excited about as an early tackle pick. His stock has never taken off and if they take him in round two, I’d have no issues with that. It would be a selection to celebrate.
If Johnson and Thibodeaux come off the board before pick #9 — theoretically you could still take Wyatt (either at #9 or after moving down), take Tindall at #40 and maybe Lucas is there at #41? Then you could use #72 on a pass rusher like Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone, Amare Barno or Jeffrey Gunter.
That would make as much sense as any other plan. If you prefer to swap out Lucas for Smith or Rasheed Walker — that’s an option too. I’ll just be a little bit surprised if they decide to go young and experienced on the O-line after years of trying to become more experienced up front.
It all calls into question Seattle’s decision to pay, handsomely, existing players on their roster. A true rebuilding team without any connection to Quandre Diggs, Will Dissly, Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson and Rashaad Penny might’ve thought that money was better spent elsewhere. Instead Seattle has used almost all of its cap space to retain a fairly average core that Pete Carroll clearly likes.
The coach speaks of competing and not rebuilding yet it’s impossible to look at Seattle’s roster and think this is anything more than a bad football team in the making. Even with their cluster of picks coming up.
Carroll might be best served embracing what this is and toning down his language. It could get ugly for him if he constantly talks about ‘going for it’ and then the losses stack up.
In truth it’s probably best to lean into a rebuild. Start your younger players — such as Stone Forsyth and Jake Curhan — and if you end up with a top-three pick in 2023, so be it. You won’t have to move up for a quarterback at least.
At the moment though I’m a little anxious that Carroll isn’t thinking this way at all. He’s thinking if he can plug a gap here, plug a gap there — they have a roster. Decisions made in April should be with 2023-2028 in mind, not 2022.
That’s why creating a dominating front seven through this draft should be the aim. It’s a realistic aim, too.
What if they do take Trevor Penning at #9?
I should be clear that I don’t dislike Penning as a player. I think he’s worthy of a first round grade. His profile determines he is for sure. I just don’t think he’s ‘special’ and that other players on the defensive side of the ball can be future stars.
If they draft him at #9 I think you still have to aim to take a linebacker in round two. With your other pick you consider Sam Williams, perhaps — or maybe one of the other edge rushers drops into range. There are a lot ranked in the top-50.
The Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone, Amare Barno and Jeffrey Gunter group lack the star-quality of the top players and all require some refinement and development. Clint Hurtt called for a game-wrecker and all of these four are more ‘project’ than anything else. There is a lot of potential with this quartet, though.
Chris Simm’s take on Matt Corral
Say what you want about Simms but over the years he’s been quite good at correctly predicting which quarterbacks are best served to succeed at the next level.
Today he revealed his 2022 rankings with Ole Miss’ Corral at the top.
He suggests Corral is the only player worthy of being considered in the top-10 and he has high praise for a player who was famously snapped having a meet-and-greet with Pete Carroll at the combine.
Brady Henderson reported today that there’s a feeling the Seahawks are not sold on the top quarterbacks in this draft. We should also remember the Seahawks have been very good at steering the local media over the last 12 months (see: Wilson will not be traded).
I don’t think the Seahawks will take Corral at #9. I do still think there’s a chance they could trade back into the #20-32 range to get him though.
Lane Kiffin loves Corral and Carroll trusts Lane. They’ve drafted a Kiffin quarterback before (Alex McGough). They might be inclined to keep taking shots until they find a guy.
The Browns are stuck with Baker Mayfield
He wanted the Colts but they clearly wanted someone else. The Saints have re-signed Jameis Winston. The Falcons added Marcus Mariota. The Panthers are already paying Sam Darnold $18m.
There’s nowhere for the Browns or Mayfield to go here.
This is why all the talk of day two picks a few days a go was nonsensical. The Browns have no leverage. This was nothing like the Carson Wentz situation or Darnold a year ago. Why? Because the Browns leaked a quote to ESPN calling Mayfield a child and then traded the house for Deshaun Watson.
It is impossible for Mayfield to be in that building when everyone gets together for OTA’s or camp.
They have two choices. Cut him and spend $18m for him to go away. Or they trade him with zero leverage to whoever will take him. They might need to eat most of his salary anyway or offer a draft pick to take on the money.
Either way they’re going to have to bite the bullet at some point. It seems to be taking them a long time to realise that but I suspect reality is biting now that other teams have shut down their options.
If the Seahawks want Mayfield — and I suspect they do — they’ve played a blinder here by being patient. They will probably get their ‘shot to nothing’ opportunity and will approach this ‘second chance’ as their 2022 answer to the Marshawn Lynch trade.
If not, it’s no big deal.
Something to remember…
When the Packers were preparing for life after Brett Favre, they selected Aaron Rodgers in the first round in 2005. Three years later, with Favre still playing, they selected Brian Brohm in the second round.
John Schneider is part of that Packers DNA. He admitted this week they’ve not done a good enough job drafting quarterbacks over the years. He’s right too. It’s particularly frustrating given the mid-round quarterbacks available a year ago, when the writing was on the wall with Russell Wilson.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks drafted one quarterback early and one late this year. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they took one early this year (either in round two or after trading up) but left the door open to draft another early in 2023.
When you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you’ve got to throw a lot of darts. I do wonder if they’ll start that off in this draft.
Given Brady Henderson’s report — if they don’t take a quarterback early, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the two players they’ve got their eye on are Jack Coan and Kaleb Eleby.
That, I think, would still be my preference above any Baker Mayfield project or high draft pick. Coan and Eleby have talent and traits you can chuck into the mix for 2022, while you build up your roster and plan for a potential high quarterback pick next year.
Today I have published a new podcast discussing some of these topics in greater detail. You can listen below via YouTube, Spotify and Apple. Please subscribe and support the channels.
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The front office were right to end the Russell Wilson saga one way or another. I think some of their free agent moves have been understandable and some questionable. I’m taking a ‘wait and see’ approach overall on what they’ve done in this market.
However, I don’t think you can assess what has happened with Trent Brown as anything other than a negative. We’ve been here before, too many times.
Source: #Patriots OT Trent Brown has agreed to terms with… the #Patriots. A plot twist, as Brown ends up back where he began.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 21, 2022
How often have the Seahawks had visits with players, tried to give them the hard-sell as recruiters, only to miss out?
Look at the Bengals. They didn’t allow La’el Collins to leave Cincinnati without a deal. The Seahawks took a long visit with Brown, only to allow themselves to seemingly be used as leverage as he eventually stayed with his old team.
The Seahawks currently have two gaping holes at offensive tackle. The draft options are not great, despite what a lot of other people will tell you.
If they force themselves to take a tackle at #9 — they will be reaching for a need. They will not be positioning themselves to take the best player.
This has become a regular occurrence with Pete Carroll and John Schneider.
Too often over the years they’ve backed themselves into a corner by going into the draft with significant needs. Then, instead of letting the draft come to them, they’ve had to force things.
Sometimes they’ve even gone into training camp with massive issues at center and cornerback (2021) or pass rush (2019 & 2020).
All of the best options in round one are on defense. You have a chance to select a special talent with your top pick, even if you move down first.
Charles Cross and Trevor Penning do not possess ‘special’ qualities.
It will be demoralising to see them force an offensive tackle pick at #9 — or feel like they’ve got to somehow find a solution at #40 or #41 for a gaping hole.
They had one of the best right tackles in the business in their facility over the weekend and they should’ve made sure he didn’t leave without putting pen to paper.
Now what?
Duane Brown is talking to Carolina. Teron Armstead is visiting Miami and appears destined to sign for the Dolphins. Collins has committed to the Bengals and Brown to the Pats.
Short of pulling out the stops with any of the above who aren’t committed, the remaining options are limited to Eric Fisher, Billy Turner, Daryl Williams and Brandon Shell. That’s it.
Meanwhile the Seahawks spent a fortune tying up Quandre Diggs, to secure a combined +$30m a year average salary at the safety position, extended Will Dissly way beyond expectations and then added players like Quinton Jefferson.
As we sit here today, they have not done anything at offensive tackle. They’ll need to further add to their pass rush after releasing Carlos Dunlap. They need a linebacker and cornerback too. And there’s the quarterback position.
A week into free agency and it feels like we’re seeing the same old issues arise. The same lack of commitment to the trenches. The same inability to upgrade and improve the team — especially on the offensive line. Investing in non-premium positions while neglecting areas like the two lines and cornerback. The same misplaced confidence in their recruiting ability that never pays off when free agents are there to be won over.
For all the talk Carroll had of competing this year, at the moment they’ve got the makings of a very bad football team. It’s actually hard to imagine who could be worse right now. They have to be among the favourites for a top-three pick next year.
This is a big few days for Carroll and co. They’ve got to get this tackle situation sorted. Not as a means to win this year per se. More as a sign that they appreciate and understand where the strength of this draft is at #9, #40 and #41. Because it isn’t offensive tackle.
They’ve also got to make some moves without sacrificing their prize draft picks. Which is hard to do when you see what paltry tackle options remain on the market.
If they don’t set themselves up for a defense-centric draft in the early rounds, it will be a big error.
Trading Wilson and launching a reset was fine but they had to prove they could drive this team forward. I’m not sure the first week of free agency is suggesting they’re capable of doing it.
I hope I’m writing a different article soon.
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Devonte Wyatt has the potential for greatness
Address the offensive tackle positions asap
I don’t want the Seahawks to feel like they’ve got to draft a left tackle at #9. I’m not as high on Charles Cross as many others and while Trevor Penning has intriguing physical qualities, I don’t think he has the potential to be special — unlike the defenders available in the same range.
Find a way to bring in Duane & Trent Brown. Or pivot to Eric Fisher if needs be.
Solidify the offensive line to create the flexibility to approach the draft with a BPA mindset.
After spending so much on the safety position and more recently at tight end and running back — the team really needs to get the left and right tackle positions sorted.
Accept the situation for what it is at quarterback
Let’s just be honest here. Players like Baker Mayfield and Tyler Huntley are not taking you to the Super Bowl in the future. If you trade for either, they will play on essentially one-year prove-it contracts.
If they perform well, they’ll cost a fortune to keep. If they struggle — you’ve wasted a pick.
Seattle should be setting out to find a great young signal caller and they should accept that it might take a year or two.
Give yourself a chance to hit the jackpot which is a cheap quarterback on a rookie contract — freeing up cap space to build around them.
You’ve just got to take your lumps in 2022. That means a competition involving Drew Lock, Jacob Eason, probably Geno Smith and a rookie.
That rookie shouldn’t be a high pick either. Jack Coan isn’t that much worse than the top players. Take him at the start of day three and let him compete.
The chances are you’ll then be well placed to draft someone like Will Levis next year.
I don’t think they’ll do this by the way, as I’ll note at the end of this piece.
Create a fearsome front seven
This should be the #1 priority for the Seahawks. This draft class is set up to create a terrorising defense.
Speed, violence and pass rush. That should be the aim.
Plan A for me would be to draft Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at #9 to partner Darrell Taylor. If they are off the board I would do one of two things.
Firstly, I would check out what offers are available to move down. Recent reports have linked the Chargers with interest in moving up to select Jordan Davis. Can you get a high-ish pick next year and LA’s third rounder (#79) this year? That #79 pick will be extremely valuable in this draft.
If you can move down, I would do so with the aim of selecting another edge rusher (Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie, George Karlaftis) or — my preference — you draft Devonte Wyatt.
If the offers to move down from #9 were not attractive, I would draft Wyatt with the #9 pick or Derek Stingley Jr.
I want the Seahawks to try and draft a special talent. Not a ‘decent’ player or someone who’s raw and needs a lot of work. I want special.
Stingley has shown elite potential at LSU — even if he’s struggled to show it after LSU collapsed in 2020. In 2019 he looked like he was on a pathway to becoming the best cornerback in the world. At SPARQ he ran a 4.30 at the same weight he’s at now. He also jumped a 42 inch vertical. He has the potential for greatness.
Wyatt is the closest thing the Seahawks are going to get to a special interior pass rusher — the rarest of things. There simply aren’t many people who are 6-3, 304lbs and can run a 4.77 with a 1.66 10-yard split.
His arm length (32.5 inches) is below what Seattle has looked for in the past. However, Geno Atkins (who I’d compare Wyatt to) and Aaron Donald also had the same issue and they coped well enough. Much in the way Russell Wilson had everything except height — I’d argue Wyatt has everything except ideal arm length.
People question his production (2.5 sacks in 2021). I wouldn’t worry about it. He had 26 pressures last season. He had a 14.5% pass rush win rate which is superior to Jermaine Johnson (14.2%) and Travon Walker (10.8%).
On top of that his run-stop win-rate is 11.4%. Compare that to Perrion Winfrey (6.1%) and Travis Jones (7.8%).
In five years we might be wondering why Wyatt wasn’t a top-10 lock. He dominated at the Senior Bowl and he combines supreme quickness and excellent hand-use to penetrate as a pass rusher. He can play stout at the point and won’t be a liability against the run. He can play any down and distance.
The Seahawks want a game-wrecker and he could be it. They’ve needed interior rush for years. Wyatt can provide that.
If they took him at #9 I would celebrate that pick. If they can get him after trading down — so be it.
Aim for greatness, not simply a player who could be pretty good or needs serious development. Try and find a star. For me that means looking at players like Wyatt and Stingley with unique skill-sets and rare traits.
They would be my Plan B if Johnson and Thibodeaux are gone.
Picks #40 and #41 should continue to build up the defense. It feels inevitable that one of the picks will go on a linebacker. My preference would be one of Channing Tindall, Leo Chenal, Damone Clark or Quay Walker.
If they take Wyatt in round one, I would use the #41 pick to select Sam Williams the Ole Miss pass rusher.
I think a front seven that includes Wyatt, Tindall, Williams, Darrell Taylor and Uchenna Nwosu can be special. You will be able to attack teams with speed, aggression and difference making ability. You would also have great depth.
Wyatt, Tindall and Williams in particular have also produced at the highest level in college football in the SEC. Two of them are from Georgia’s sensational National Championship team.
This would set you on a pathway to success on defense. With your investment in safety already secure, you would be a cornerback away from a potentially fantastic unit.
To me this is a plan nearly everyone can get behind. Who wouldn’t want to watch a front-seven like this?
Whether the Seahawks would be prepared to focus solely on one side of the ball in the first two rounds, I’m not sure.
But if they are able to bring in Duane and Trent Brown to play tackle — and if we accept the quarterback situation is what it is for 12 months — this would be an exciting start to the rebuild.
A final thought on Baker Mayfield
The Seahawks are being linked again today and I think the situation is becoming fairly obvious here.
This is how I see it…
The Browns have zero leverage because they have spent a fortune on Deshaun Watson and have no choice but to move Mayfield on. Leaking to ESPN that they ‘want an adult’ at quarterback was unprofessional by whoever said it and has turned this into a crisis for the Browns.
Why?
There is no way whatsoever Mayfield can enter the quarterbacks room in OTA’s or camp now. He’d be well within his rights to be a royal pain in the arse — which is not what Cleveland needs as they turn to Watson.
Neither can they afford to sit on an $18m guaranteed salary which they are on the hook for without a trade. If nobody makes Cleveland an offer — they will have to cut him and eat the whole salary. That’s where they’re at and teams know it.
Comparing this to the Carson Wentz situation is futile. The Colts chose to move on from Wentz. He could’ve returned and it would’ve been steady away. There’s no such option for the Browns after trading for Watson and insulting Mayfield.
The Colts and Seahawks are seen as potential suitors. Both immediately distanced themselves from Mayfield, amid reports the Browns were laughably asking for a day-two pick in a trade.
The Athletic and the Seattle Times both reported that each team ‘wasn’t pursuing’ Mayfield. I’m not sure Indianapolis will ever be interested. I suspect the Seahawks most definitely will be.
My feeling is that Pete Carroll will see this as a chance to make Mayfield the next Marshawn Lynch. A player who was seen as uncontrollable at his old team, acquired on the cheap who Carroll turns into a star.
Mayfield, to be fair, needs a coach like Carroll. It would be an ideal fit for him. He’d have plenty of room to be himself. Carroll will like his competitive spirit and channel it — rather than restrict it.
However, what we need to remember is the Seahawks badly wanted Lynch in 2010. They were extremely patient, not concluding a deal until after the season had begun.
They won’t have to wait that long this time but clearly it feels like they’re willing to take the same approach. Let the situation come to them.
In this case that means one of two things. It means Cleveland eating a whole chunk of his $18m salary (which the Seahawks can’t even afford right now) or it means the Browns basically giving him away — or even giving Seattle a late round pick to inherit the contract.
A fair deal is probably one of Seattle’s fifth rounders to get Mayfield for $10m. Plenty will scoff at that. I’ve seen many tweets claiming the Browns should be able to get second or third round picks. It isn’t happening.
They need rid of Mayfield. Everyone knows it. They’re going to have to facilitate his departure just to move on.
I would rather the Seahawks stick it out and just embrace what this — a rebuild where you aim to draft a quarterback to eventually start. For me that would mean a later pick this year on a Jack Coan type and a higher pick, if needed, in 2023.
However — I don’t think Carroll will see it like that. I think he and Schneider will fancy rolling the dice if the price is right.
It has to be a deal that speaks to the situation. Which in this case would be the Seahawks relieving Cleveland of a problem and inheriting what amounts to a one-year rental to have a look at a player who will be incredibly expensive to retain if he performs well.
If you missed it earlier today I conducted a live stream with Robbie Williams & Adam Nathan. You can watch via YouTube below or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify:
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Reacting to the Scot McCloughan interview
It was very interesting to hear Scot refer to the top quarterbacks as essentially third round prospects, three of which are likely to go in round one due to positional need. I came away thinking there was virtually no chance of Seattle taking one at #9.
Say what you like about John Schneider’s recent drafting record — he and Pete Carroll have been very cautious when it comes to quarterbacks, only selecting two in 12 years. Maybe they rate the group higher than McCloughan? I suspect they don’t — or at least not high enough to go completely against what he said and take one at #9.
To hear someone as respected as McCloughan spell it out in such a way, I’m not sure any team is going to reach to that extent unless there’s ownership pressure. I suspect we’ll start seeing a bit of activity, perhaps, when New Orleans and Pittsburgh edge towards being on the clock. Perhaps someone will trade into the late first for the third player. That feels more realistic.
With a roster that needs fleshing out and with McCloughan also saying this is a ‘building’ draft where you set up the framework, I’m convinced we’ll see this team focus on structure.
If you missed my interview with Scot McCloughan — you can watch it below. I think it’s a must-listen for all NFL/NFL Draft fans:
Thoughts on what they’ll do
With the recent cuts of Benson Mayowa, Carlos Dunlap and Kerry Hyder — the Seahawks are light on edge rushers. Dunlap is the only truly productive player they’ve lost but currently, they’ve only really got Darrell Taylor, Uchenna Nwosu and Alton Robinson to rush the edge.
They absolutely need more. Given they spoke of improving the pass rush in 2022 — subtracting Dunlap and adding Nwosu is not a ‘fix’. They’re going to be adding here, I would suggest, in a big way.
I think this speaks to the confidence they have in finding an edge rusher. I’ve thought for a while that Jermaine Johnson would be their ideal choice at #9. If not, they can always move down and still secure a good EDGE.
I’m not sure how much this scheme change impacts what they’re looking for. Boye Mafe having sub-33 inch arms would usually mean he’s less likely to come to Seattle. Yet in this fresh start with clear scheme shifts, does that change now?
Regardless, I think if I was going to put money on Seattle’s first pick it would be a DE/OLB type — whether they stay at #9 or not.
I’d say the alternative is an offensive tackle. They still have holes at left and right tackle. If Jermaine Johnson, Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux are not there at #9 — they might pivot to Trevor Penning.
All signs point to teams focusing on three key areas early in this draft — DL, OL, CB.
Cornerback is an interesting one. Seattle lost D.J. Reed and only signed Artie Burns on the cheap. We don’t know how much these scheme changes, and a switch to more man-coverage, might impact how they approach the position. Sauce Gardner is highly regarded and Derek Stingley is suffering with some recency bias due to injuries and an imploding LSU team. He’s still an outstanding talent.
In previous years we’ve seen quarterbacks and receivers go early. However — as discussed — the QB’s don’t warrant that kind of grade this year and there’s simply so much depth at receiver that teams will probably wait until day two.
LA Chargers to move up?
Tony Pauline relayed information from the Georgia pro-day that LA were smitten with Jordan Davis. It’s no surprise. Not only did he test sensationally — the Chargers badly need someone like him to complete their roster.
They are in a position to make a big trade. If they had Davis anchoring the middle with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack rushing the edges, with JC Jackson lurking in the secondary and Derwin James at safety — that’s a killer unit.
They could present the Seahawks with an option to move down. More likely though, I think they might target Carolina at #6. The Panthers don’t have a second round pick and might be prepared to shift down to #17 and consider quarterbacks. The Chargers could give them a third rounder and some picks for next year. Not a great return — admittedly — and the Panthers might end up staying put.
From Seattle’s perspective, they could realistically expect to get the #79 pick in return. That’s LA’s highest remaining pick. Plus you’d imagine a high pick next year. It might be appealing for the Seahawks if the board goes a certain way.
I don’t think they’ll take Jordan Davis themselves, despite his incredible physical talent. If there’s one position where they’re currently ‘stacked’ it’s interior defensive line:
Al Woods
Shelby Harris
Poona Ford
Quinton Jefferson
Bryan Mone
It’s a hard sell to add Davis as well to that list and then not have adequate pass rushing talent. You can’t just be about stopping the run. You’ve got to get after opponents too.
It only becomes a more viable prospect if they sign a big name pass rusher, such as Za’Darius Smith. Which seems unlikely.
One way or another, the Seahawks are going to find a way to draft an edge rusher in rounds 1-2.
Tackle is an interesting situation
The Seahawks have had many visits with players over the years. The Jared Allen one sticks in the memory.
They’ve rarely led to a player actually signing though.
To an extent it almost feels ominous when it’s revealed a player is having a visit. It seems to mean the Seahawks are going to do their checks and then try and ‘recruit’ the player to take less money — rather than getting a signature inked.
Trent Brown having a positive time in Seattle and potentially getting a deal done over the weekend sounds good. I’m fearful, though, that another team (such as the Patriots) will swoop in.
I’d like to see them just get this done. You’ve got money to spend. Brown has been one of the best right tackles in the league when healthy. Take a shot.
I’d also like to see Duane Brown back. Initially I wanted them to avoid signing older players. However, I think another year of Brown is acceptable while you work out a long term path. They might even draft someone at #40 or #41 (or might trade back into the first).
I’m not as high on Tyler Smith as a lot of other people but, theoretically, you could add him and stash him with the intention of him being the future of the position.
There are still dominos to fall. It might even be that Brown remains available until after the draft and they can make a call when they know what they’ve acquired.
Over the last few years the Seahawks have had gaping holes on their roster to start training camp. I hope they avoid that this year by going into the draft with good options at most positions and then adding — rather than ‘filling’.
Seahawks want an experienced quarterback
According to Josina Anderson, they at least ‘prefer’ to add a veteran. I think this further speaks to their thinking for this year. Find an experienced potential starter in what will be portrayed as an open competition with Drew Lock. Then build through the draft.
I have a little bit of fear that they could end up blowing a good pick on a middling or ageing player. However, there are some positive signs.
Immediately after the Deshaun Watson trade it became clear that Indianapolis were in pole position for Baker Mayfield. Then this emerged from Bob Condotta:
I’m hearing Seahawks aren’t expected to aggressively pursue Mayfield right now.
Given Mayfield and his people have let it be known through the media that he’s interested in Seattle, I don’t think this is because he’s snubbed the Seahawks. Neither do I think there’s no interest from Seattle. I think they’ll be very interested in him.
After all, Carroll’s big speech about second chances could’ve been tailor-made for Mayfield’s situation.
Here’s what I think’s going on. I think the Seahawks are showing restraint and acknowledge this is a situation where Cleveland has little leverage. They’re letting the Colts dictate where this goes. What are they offering?
They can stay in touch, while not ‘aggressively pursuing’. And if the market is right, they can enter it when needed.
If the price isn’t right, you simply move on.
I think this is a mature, responsible approach. Seattle’s main priority has to be to protect their high picks. Mayfield’s contract situation makes a trade a big challenge because if he plays well you’ll need to pay him a fortune. If he struggles, you wasted a pick on a rental.
One advantage the Seahawks do have is they’re in the NFC, not the AFC. I think there’s a chance Mayfield ends up in Seattle — provided the Colts are not ‘all-in’ on acquiring him.
In terms of alternatives — I wouldn’t get into the Matt Ryan market. I watched him live last season and physically he looked 37-years-old. He’ll cost about $23m — not the $8-9m a lot of people think. Atlanta can drive a harder bargain than Cleveland because they haven’t just committed three first rounders and a kings ransom to another quarterback.
You’re not winning the Super Bowl with Ryan in 2022. You’ll just be the Falcons.
Restraint is the order of the day.
The Seahawks are planning something
They cleared a decent chunk of cap space by cutting Dunlap, Hyder and Mayowa — despite already having the second most available space in the league.
That could, potentially, pave the way to inherit a large quarterback contract.
Or it could be that we’re a week into free agency and there are still some good players available — and they’re ready to make several additions that possibly felt unlikely a few days ago.
What happens with DK Metcalf?
It was interesting to hear Rich Eisen and Albert Breer discussing the prospect of Green Bay trading for Metcalf. That gives the idea a bit more legitimacy, compared to all the Twitter chatter.
As Breer alluded to, it might be one for closer to the draft. The Seahawks need to get through free agency. Then they need to sit down with Metcalf and find out how likely it is they can find common-ground on a contract. If they can’t, thanks to the explosive, ridiculous receiver market, they’ll be in the same situation they were with Frank Clark.
And as with Clark, the minimum compensation they receive in any trade should be a first and second round pick. Metcalf is only 24, he has the world at his feet.
It’s also the same compensation the Packers received for Davante Adams.
I don’t want Seattle to lose such a talented player. However, I think we’re now in a situation where his salary is simply going to be too expensive.
The Packers could give you #22 and #59. That would present an opportunity to draft ‘two for one’ at a cheaper price. Green Bay gets a dynamic weapon to try and win a title this year. The Seahawks can build up their roster.
Notre Dame’s Kevin Austin Jr is a player I would focus on, if such a trade was completed. I think he’s a second round pick. I’d also be ready to move if Jameson Williams lasted into range because of his injury. North Dakota State’s Christian Watson also has a lot of talent and feels like a foundational player for the locker room.
Frankly though, you can list many more options. It’s a loaded receiver class.
I also wouldn’t rule out a team like the Jets being very aggressive in pursuit of Metcalf. It’s hard to work out what a good option for them is at #10. They are desperate for a legit weapon for Zach Wilson.
Linebacker clearly a target
It’s not a coincidence that the Seahawks moved on from Bobby Wagner after watching the outstanding linebacker group at the combine.
It was the end of the road for Wagner in Seattle anyway. It hasn’t been discussed enough in the media but his performances had dropped dramatically. There’s a reason why he’s still available now — a week into free agency.
It was a clear example of a popular player benefitting from reputation and assumption. In the lead up to his departure I wrote a few times I wouldn’t have him back even for $8-10m. The money was better spent elsewhere — and this linebacker class provides a unique opportunity to combine talent and value.
Seattle hasn’t been linked with any free agent linebackers which is both encouraging and indicative of the situation. They don’t even need a hedge (although Cody Barton is one, to an extent). Even if players come off the board, you’re virtually assured of a quality linebacker being available at #40/41.
The four that I’d key-in on are Channing Tindall, Leo Chenal, Quay Walker and Damone Clark. I can also see why Christian Harris and Troy Anderson could be appealing (you might be able to trade down and get one of them).
Tindall and Chenal combine outstanding agility, explosive traits and speed with a physical nature and would be 1a and 1b for me. Walker just has a stoic quality to him — you can imagine him being a leader on your roster and a long-time starter — even if he never reaches an elite level. Clark is a grown man. Extremely likeable personality. 100% football. Frame of a body-builder.
The Seahawks are going to get a good one.
Running back remains intriguing
There’s still no word on Rashaad Penny. I suppose that increases the chances that he’ll be back in Seattle.
I also think it perhaps suggests the Seahawks like this running back class and whatever happens with Penny, might actually prefer to draft a new lead runner.
Carroll is doubling-down on his way of doing things and that means running the ball effectively. We’ve seen how bad Seattle’s offense is when they can’t run the ball.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they target Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker early in round two. However, I still think Zamir White and Dameon Pierce warrant serious consideration because they bring attitude, physicality and energy to a team. They might be available in round three. On day three they might add another one too. It’s a loaded running back group.
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Baker Mayfield’s time in Cleveland appears to be close to an end
It’s been an interesting couple of days for Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. The failed attempt to land Deshaun Watson, a rejected trade request and a relationship that appears broken and destined to end.
Mayfield has let it be known through the media he’d be open to going to Indianapolis or Seattle. Then Josina Anderson posted one of her zany tweets, suggesting the Seahawks ‘have discussed exploring’ acquiring Mayfield. That, presumably, means they’ve had a discussion as to whether to consider it, which sounds at least two stages behind actually being able to make an offer.
It feels like both parties are showing a bit of leg to each other.
And why not? Pete Carroll gave a rambling yet passionate opening gambit during his press conference yesterday where he spoke endlessly about second chances. Mayfield, you’d imagine, falls into that category.
He needs a coach like Carroll. Someone who’ll give him a chance to turn his career around and deliver support and guidance — plus an opportunity to be comfortable in his own skin.
That said, I can’t get behind trading for Mayfield unless the price is decidedly cheap. According to Anderson, this is what Cleveland wants:
Speaking on value assessment: Perhaps a "2nd-rounder, or a conditional 3rd-rounder that turns into a 2nd" for Baker Mayfield, per league source.
— IG: JosinaAnderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 17, 2022
To me that’s too much, for several key reasons.
Mayfield has only one year left on his contract. This is doubly concerning. If he doesn’t perform well and you let him walk, you wasted a high-ish pick. If he performs at the best level we’ve seen from him so far in his career, he would have outstanding leverage in contract talks — just at the moment QB salaries are sky-rocketing.
There’d be no reason for Seattle to bite on that kind of trade. Let the Browns stew until the price comes down. There’s no leverage for Cleveland here. Use that to your advantage, don’t let them off the hook.
If you can get him for a day three pick it becomes a shot-to-nothing. Then if you walk away in 12 months there’s no lasting damage.
Short-term rentals, at a high cost, are one of the reasons why this team has struggled. They can’t keep blowing high picks on trades. Their best deals have all been when they’ve got great value.
Mayfield needs to cost as much as Marshawn Lynch or Quandre Diggs. Otherwise, just move on.
The Seahawks have not had much luck with expensive trades and the opposite is true with their bargain moves. They need all of their high picks — this year and next — to reset the team. They should also be intending, whether it’s this year or next, to add quarterbacks through the draft to really feel the benefit of a rookie contract.
Seattle’s focus right now should be the offensive line. If Mayfield is eventually available for a day three pick this year — or something similar next year that is conditional — fine.
The price-tag has to represent the risk involved though due to the fact he has only one year left on his contract. This is a rental with serious potential to be a one-year relationship, even if he plays well, due to a difficult contract negotiation that would follow.
You can’t overpay for that.
Interesting comments from John Schneider
Towards the end of yesterdays press conference, Schneider was asked about the quarterback draft class. Carroll interrupted because he wanted to steer Schneider away from talking about it. At the end of the conference, Schneider doggedly returned to his answer. He was going to say what he had to say.
I found it interesting that he chose to return to the subject to point out:
1.) That they hadn’t done a good enough job adding quarterbacks over the years, despite intending to
2.) That they could take a quarterback later on, not just early in the draft, and that players such as Tom Brady and Russell Wilson were drafted outside of the first round
It could be nothing. It’s unlikely Schneider decided he would reveal their draft plans to the media. It made me consider a couple of points though.
Could they draft multiple quarterbacks in the draft to take as many shots as possible? Could they have their eye on a possible player later in the draft?
In 2012 Washington drafted Robert Griffin III at great expense then added Kirk Cousins in round four. Could Seattle do something similar this year?
Or could they build up the rest of their roster with their three early picks and take someone like Jack Coan or Kaleb Eleby later on?
The Seahawks have to find foundational pieces
Every team has a handful of usually homegrown players who are the beating heart of the team. They don’t need to be high picks, as Seattle showed from 2010. They do need to be high quality though, not just physically tough and impactful.
The key to this draft for the Seahawks, with three picks in the top-41, should be to try and find the foundational core to add to the handful of candidates they already possess.
That’s why I don’t think they’ll trade down from #9 if a top player is available. And I think at the very least they’ll spend one of #40 or #41.
Frankly I’d happily stay put in each spot and make a pick, unless an obscene offer was made. Don’t be cute. Make picks.
One player I’m not convinced they’ll be interested in
I’ve seen Charles Cross’ name come up a fair bit — the left tackle from Mississippi State. His tape is fairly good. He’s mobile and he showed that by running a 4.95. He can get out into his sets and make life hard against a speed rush which produces a lot of value.
However — he’s not particularly large. He’s the opposite of explosive — jumping only a 26 inch vertical. Unlike Abraham Lucas, he did a poor job in the shuttle (4.61) and three cone (7.88).
To me this is not the profile of a top-10 pick.
Could they draft a running back early?
With Rashaad Penny remaining a free agent I’ve started to wonder whether the Seahawks are so comfortable with their draft options that they’re feeling quite strong in negotiations.
Penny was electric to end the season and ideally, you bring him back to see if he can re-create the magic. Yet the injury history has to be taken into consideration. Even if you bring him back for one year at $6m — it’s considerably more than a rookie.
Some Seahawks fans will have a screaming fit if they spend another high pick on a runner, yet I think it’s one of the best investments you can make in the early second round.
Firstly, the position is undervalued these days so players who otherwise would’ve gone early in round one 20 years ago now last a lot longer. Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Stewart all went in the general range where Seattle owns two second round picks.
Secondly, the price and impact is valuable. Last years #40 pick (Richie Grant) had a cap hit of $1.5m in 2021. In the final year of his deal, he’ll cost $2.6m.
That’s a fraction of the cost of paying someone like Penny. Yet running backs consistently show they can make an impact early in their careers.
While it’s proven that drafting runners in the top-10 is a fools errand — the early second round can be a range where you gain exceptional talent, production and value.
I’m not sure how the Seahawks will view Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker — yet their outstanding college production plus incredible combine performances could pique their interest.
Note this line from a recent Albert Breer article:
One NFC exec told me he sees both as late-first-round types who’ll probably go on Day 2 based on how the position is valued in the league.
Hall ran a 4.39 in Indianapolis and jumped a 40 inch vertical at 5-11 and 217lbs. Walker ran a 4.38 and jumped a 34 inch vertical at 5-9 and 211lbs.
I really like Zamir White or Dameon Pierce later on. Frankly, there’s a long list of attractive running backs. Yet Hall and Walker have those special physical qualities that the star names have. If the Seahawks think either can lead their rushing attack for the next four years and cost — at most — between $1.5m-2.6m — then that’s something they might consider.
Carroll’s system can’t function without a running game and they’ve had too many injuries at the position. Finding consistency and quality is key to re-launching this team and offense.
How will the Davante Adams trade impact Seattle?
Potentially in quite a big way.
His contract is said to be worth about $28.25m a year. You can’t negotiate in this arena. What is fair value any more? The market has exploded and now teams are going to find it incredibly difficult to get acceptable agreements with receivers.
It feels like we’ve reached a tipping point at the position but it could take 2-3 years to settle down.
I want D.K. Metcalf to stay in Seattle. You don’t get better by trading away good young players who can be part of your foundation. You simply open up more holes.
However — Metcalf is not worth $25-30m a year. When I look at this draft class and the last few draft classes — they’re always loaded at receiver.
College football is churning out quality wide-outs year after year.
As such, it might be best to go four years at a time at this position then be prepared to move on. Which means potentially trading Metcalf now or next year when he’s on the franchise tag.
I’m not convinced they’d do it now unless Metcalf pushed for it. Next year feels more likely. The problem might be that nobody else wants to pay him $25-30m a year either. If the Packers won’t match Davante Adams’ demands, why would they pay a similar amount for someone else?
This market is going to give GM’s an incredible headache over the coming years.
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‘The Rebuild: a Seattle Seahawks podcast’ is now available on Spotify, along with Apple & YouTube. Please subscribe and leave a review — it helps the channel on each platform. I’ve just posted a new solo pod discussing today’s free agent moves and the importance of draft hedging. The episode is available on the various platforms below.
Don’t forget to also check out today’s article, discussing quarterbacks and options with the #9 pick.
Malik Willis — flawed but toolsy
In the aftermath of the Russell Wilson trade I wrote about the Seahawks almost certainly having a firm plan for the next step. You don’t trade Wilson away without knowing what your next move is. The Seahawks will know, internally, what it is.
We don’t know. We won’t know. And we should embrace that.
Last week everyone invested a lot of faith in Daniel Jeremiah saying his buddies in the league expected Deshaun Watson in Seattle. Now, they’re not even among a group of teams talking to him.
There’ll be all sorts of speculation about their intentions and none of it, really, is going to mean anything.
The team is not going to show its hand. Any leak can be taken with a pinch of salt. This is the most important decision, arguably, Pete Carroll and John Schneider will make. Their reputations are on the line here. If they trade Wilson away and mess this up — this could be how their tenure in Seattle is defined.
I want to offer some thoughts on what might be going on.
The pass rush fear
I hoped acquiring the #9 pick would put Seattle in a position to draft an outstanding pass rusher. The NFL world obsesses about quarterbacks but over the last few years, a great pass rush has been just as important.
Increasingly, I wonder who will be left at #9.
It’s becoming harder and harder to imagine Jermaine Johnson lasting. He could/should be the #1 target. After a fantastic season for Florida State where he had 11.5 sacks and 17.5 TFL’s — he then dominated at the Senior Bowl and ran a 1.55 10-yard split at the combine.
None of the teams picking in front of Seattle have gone after the big name free agent pass rushers. There’s a distinct possibility that Jacksonville, Detroit, Houston, the Jets, the Giants and Atlanta will all consider drafting a pass rusher.
I don’t expect Johnson to get to #9. Even if it’s the Giants at #7 or the Falcons at #8 — he has simply shown too much and performed too well.
It’s not unusual for a player to rise in this way. Think back to 2010. Trent Williams, originally, was considered a mid-first rounder. He didn’t even play left tackle at Oklahoma. Then he had a lights-out combine. As the weeks went by, buzz increased about Williams being a top-10 pick. He eventually was taken at #4 having propelled himself way up many boards.
The same could be happening here with Johnson.
It’d be a shame because he and the Seahawks appear to have connected. Here’s a segment from an article on NFL.com:
Johnson certainly looked the part in his first season with the Seminoles, rewriting his narrative from a tale of a player who failed to produce to one who just needed the right opportunity to shine. A lack of year-over-year consistency might give interested clubs some pause, but Johnson has found they too understand the dynamics of his somewhat unique ascension.
“My meeting with Seattle kind of gave me a different (perspective) on that,” Johnson explained. “[Seahawks coach] Pete Carroll, he just said in front of everyone, he’s like, ‘so we’re not going to judge him off any of the years of college (prior to Florida State). Last year is who you were.’
“Coming in from junior college to Georgia, a lot of complications can happen. For him to know right off the bat, like, ‘let’s not judge him on some different complications. Let’s judge him on when he’s in a comfortable environment and when he’s being used the right way, when he’s happy.’ That made me feel really good.”
Personally I’d consider moving up to secure him, provided the asking price wasn’t too expensive.
The only other potential ‘game-wrecking’ EDGE, for me, is Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Travon Walker tested superbly and will be a high pick for that reason. I’m not convinced he’s going to be a screaming-off-the-edge type who transforms Seattle’s pass rush for the next five years. David Ojabo has a lot of potential but feels like a slow-burner who will need a couple of years to work things out.
Thibodeaux has the talent to be the #1 pick and could still be taken there. He wouldn’t be the first player to be picked apart in the early stages of a draft season only to settle in as the top prospect because the upside is too high. The same thing more or less happened with Jadeveon Clowney. There were even a few quibbles about Myles Garrett’s personality, with people questioning his fire and discussing irrelevant things like his interest in poetry.
If he did fall to #9 I’d be surprised. That’s a significant drop. There’s no real reason why the Giants or Falcons wouldn’t stop a slide if the Seahawks were prepared to. If he did fall all the way to #9 — would Seattle be risk-averse in that scenario?
I would hope not. Thibodeaux might rub a few people up the wrong way during interviews (media and team) but he has rare edge-rushing talent. It shouldn’t be a shock if ultimately Jacksonville takes the plunge at #1.
A top-eight like this wouldn’t be a surprise:
#1 Jacksonville — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#4 New York Jets — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#5 New York Giants — Evan Neal (T, Alabama)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#7 New York Giants — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#8 Atlanta — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
With some big name pass rushers still out there and with the team expressing the need to add ‘another Darrell Taylor’ (Pete Carroll) and ‘a game-wrecker’ (Clint Hurtt) — you wonder what might be the next domino to fall.
If they feel like the options at #9 are diminishing, they might invest in a Chandler Jones, Za’Darius Smith or Jadeveon Clowney — simply to avoid missing out on an off-season priority.
If that happens, it shouldn’t stop them drafting a Johnson or Thibodeaux at #9. But it might suggest they’re preparing to go in a different direction.
***UPDATE***
The Seahawks have signed Uchenna Nwosu to a two-year $20m contract. This is very encouraging news, at least initially. It looks like a classic draft hedge. It’s not so expensive that it eliminates the Seahawks from likely taking a pass rusher with their top pick. If they miss out, though, they’re equally not left completely short.
On top of that, Nwosu is a good age (25) and has a lot of the physical traits they like — 33.5 inch arms, decent split and short shuttle. He’s played in two defensive schemes the Seahawks may try to mesh (Gus Bradley, Brandon Staley).
He isn’t a game-wrecker though. The deal will be less impressive if they don’t add one in the draft. However, this is the kind of signing I was hoping they would make because it ticks a box and leaves open the possibility of drafting a pass rushing stud at #9.
What does this all mean for the quarterback position?
Potentially nothing. If the board did shake up like the above projection — they could opt to trade down. They could draft someone like Trevor Penning to play right or left tackle.
It’s also possible, unfortunately, that they simply take whichever quarterback they like at #9.
I don’t think anyone is going to take, say, Malik Willis ahead of them. Neither do I think a team like the Steelers are going to trade way up. Pittsburgh’s addition of Mitchell Trubisky is a useful hedge that gives them an insurance policy if they have to push things into 2023.
So far, the Seahawks haven’t added their own insurance. They’ll tell you Drew Lock is a viable option but does anyone truly believe that?
When I say they didn’t make the Wilson trade without a plan for what’s next — it’s possible they simply knew all along that their next quarterback will be easily draftable within the top-10.
For John Schneider it’s always been about tools. Wilson had a big arm and mobility. His reported interest in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen validated the preference for physical traits.
I have major reservations about Malik Willis for good reason — and I’ll reiterate them shortly. But he has tools. The kind of tools Schneider loves.
He’s got a big arm. He can scramble around and make plays off-script. There are magical moments on tape where he makes the improbable happen.
Mahomes and Allen had significant issues too.
Mahomes threw 25 interceptions in his final two years at Texas Tech. It’s easy to forget now but draft media basically pegged Mahomes as a late first round toolsy project until the very end of the process. Then, finally, there was a small amount of buzz.
The Chiefs trading up for Mahomes was exciting because people had faith in Andy Reid and they had Alex Smith to act as a bridge. It was still, on the night, a little surprising.
Here’s a link to Mahomes’ draft profile on NFL.com. You might want to sit down before reading what I’m about to write.
He was graded at a 6.30. In comparison — Willis (6.41), Kenny Pickett (6.40), Matt Corral (6.40) and Desmond Ridder (6.36) are all graded higher from the 2022 class.
Lance Zierlein’s player comparison for Mahomes was Jay Cutler. He wrote the following blurb:
Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he’s developed some bad habits and doesn’t have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes’ ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.
Here’s the anonymous quote section of the article:
“He’s got a great arm, big balls and he’s mobile. He is going to drive his head coach crazy for the first couple of years and there is no getting around that. If it clicks for him and he’s coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback.” – NFC executive
There’s a reference at least to his potential. Yet as it happens, the only people Mahomes made crazy in his first couple of years were Kansas City’s opponents.
Josh Allen was graded at a 5.90, with Zierlein writing:
Likely be the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft. Allen’s size and arm talent are prototypical for early first-round picks, but it’s rare to find a quarterback with such a low college completion rate become a successful pro. Allen’s receivers struggled to separate, but there were plenty of times where his lack of anticipation and post-snap plan did him in. Allen can make some truly special throws, but his ability to improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he’s a good NFL starter or just another big, strong-armed guy.
Allen was compared to Jake Locker.
I remember what he looked like at Wyoming and it wasn’t good. He had all the physical tools but the tape, at times, was horrendous. He had 21 interceptions in two seasons and only managed 1812 total passing yards in 11 games during his final year in college.
Then he went to the Senior Bowl and had an outstanding week, culminating in a game performance that was extremely memorable. At the combine his testing and measurements told the story of a heaven-sent quarterback profile.
He was incredibly raw though — which is why he lasted to the seventh pick. A lot of people second-guessed Buffalo’s decision to trade up and get him. Unlike Mahomes, it took Allen three years to figure things out and become the player we see today.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Schneider looks at Willis and sees the next case of a physically impressive player who is a rough diamond but can achieve greatness.
Like Mahomes and Allen he’s thrown interceptions (18 in two seasons). There are clear and obvious issues on tape that warrant concern.
If you were frustrated by Russell Wilson’s unwillingness to throw over the middle, take what’s on offer and play on schedule — Willis takes things to a whole new level. Too often he’s a one-read-and-run quarterback. His talent as a runner is both a very appealing quality when it comes to escapability, improvisation and designed runs. It’s also a problem because at the first sign of any trouble — he tries to play hero-ball.
You only have to glance at the tape to see numerous examples where wide open receivers are running across the field and Willis doesn’t pull the trigger. We’re talking about run-of-the-mill, easy completions for huge gains (or touchdowns) that are rejected with no obvious justification. Instead, he sets off running.
My fear is that at the next level, under greater pressure, he’ll be even more reactive to what happens up front. He took 51 sacks in 2021 — an astonishing number — with many a result of Willis holding the ball and trying to create. Against Ole Miss they dominated the Liberty O-line and his game fell apart. He threw three interceptions.
On a technical level, too, there are mechanical issues in terms of how he sets to throw, his base and his motion that lead to occasional accuracy issues. To be fair, he also made some stunning off-script throws where he’s improvised either on the run or when throwing from an unorthodox body position. In the NFL though — those little tells, the wasted motion, the lack of squared shoulders and planted feet can be the difference between an accurate delivery and throwing late with faster, better defensive backs lurking.
When you have technique issues, they can be exploited badly at the next level. We saw that with Justin Fields as a rookie. He was a turnover machine.
Willis needs time and development. He also needs the right environment. Mahomes and Allen received top-level offensive coaching and had schemes tailored to them by Andy Reid and Brian Daboll. Would Willis have that same luxury in Seattle?
Are the Seahawks even running a system, with Carroll’s influence and Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, best served for a player like Willis?
He doesn’t seem like a fit for the Sean McVay way of doing things. He’s much more suited to a Greg Roman type offense that will make the most of his running ability. That isn’t really something you can expect Waldron to do.
I am a little bit fearful that the Seahawks have been wowed by Willis’ physical tools after a very impressive throwing performance at the combine (at least in terms of arm strength) and now see him as the next star to enter the league.
I’ll express that fear while acknowledging the concerns people had for Mahomes and Allen, only for both to become elite players.
It would be a gamble to stake your reputation on a quarterback from Liberty with a high ceiling but a low floor.
However, I do think there’s an extremely strong chance that Willis will be there at #9 (which tells its own story). It’s at least worth considering that their plan, with the Wilson trade executed after the combine, includes a quarterback solution in the top-10.
From there, they would open up a competition as they did in 2012. The addition of Willis would also buy the existing regime time and would shift the dynamic from post-Wilson uncertainty to looking forwards.
Seahawks fans are typically very prepared to see the positives and get a bit carried away. They would probably rally around the decision to draft Willis. After all, many convinced themselves that the pass rush depth a year ago was a great positive and that Jamal Adams not only should’ve been paid as a priority but that the trade was a good one.
It’s easy to imagine this front office choosing to invest in a toolsy QB then building around them, rather than undergoing a long search for the perfect candidate.
I’m not sure Carroll would ever embrace a lost season in 2022. I’m not sure he and Schneider would survive it either.
What would be the alternative?
This is also the problem. What exactly are the alternatives?
One option is starting Drew Lock. Again, the team will talk a good game here. They’ll pump and promote Lock as a viable answer but what they say in public and feel in private will likely be very different.
The options on the open market are virtually non-existent. There’s little point bringing in an Andy Dalton or Ryan Fitzpatrick type. You might as well just throw Lock out there instead. Marcus Mariota remains available but it’s curious how his career has just gone flat while other lesser talents get opportunities. I’m not sure anyone is really convinced by him, or believes he can lead a locker room.
Either way, nothing here screams giving Carroll a legit chance to compete.
It seems Baker Mayfield may be available soon. I’m just not sure why you would do that. His salary is $18m for 2022 and he only has one year left on his contract. It’d be a rental at best, unless he proves to be a longer-term answer.
What’s fair value for him? I’m not totally against the idea of seeing what Mayfield can achieve in a fresh start, with renewed motivation. However, there’s no way I’d want to give up any kind of value to find out. So how do you make an offer that is both appealing to the Browns and reasonable as a shot to nothing at the position?
With the Seahawks having three picks in the top-41 they have draft alternatives, too. Indianapolis, another potential Mayfield suitor, only have one pick in the first two rounds. They may be more inclined to take a bit of a gamble here.
If Cleveland doesn’t acquire Deshaun Watson, they’ll likely try to put the toothpaste back in the tube with Mayfield.
Matt Ryan is also potentially an option if the Falcons trade for Watson. They’re seen as outsiders but have a suitable enough offer to get a meeting with the player today.
Again though, what is the price going to be? Ryan’s nearly 37. Atlanta would need to move on if they get an agreement for Watson, so their negotiating position would be weak. Yet Ryan would become quite an attractive option for multiple teams, including Indianapolis. You wouldn’t want to enter an aggressive market.
The Falcons sold Julio Jones for a second rounder a year ago. They somehow got a second rounder out of New England for Mohamed Sanu in 2019. I would imagine they’d insist on a second rounder for Ryan, at least. That’s too much given his age.
There’s been no buzz around players like Tyler Huntley. With Lamar Jackson’s slightly odd contract situation and the fact he missed time in 2021 — you’d probably be entering a sellers market for Huntley, who hasn’t shown enough to warrant any serious investment.
It just feels like Seattle’s only realistic choice at this point is to draft a quarterback or roll with what they’ve got — potentially adding Geno Smith back into the mix with Lock and Jacob Eason.
That doesn’t mean they’d have to take one at #9 of course. They could wait until round two, or trade back into the first.
Matt Corral feels like a better fit for the Waldron/McVay offense. There’s the Lane Kiffin connection too, with Seattle previously drafting Alex McGough from Lane’s system. I could imagine interest here, given Corral’s surprising arm strength for his size and mobility.
It wouldn’t be a total shocker if they liked Kenny Pickett despite the small hands. I’m not sure he’s toolsy enough for Schneider though. You could make the same case for Desmond Ridder despite his testing profile.
Jack Coan is, for me, potentially a better ‘take a chance on someone’ option in rounds 3-5, compared to spending a high pick.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if they end up settling on Willis in round one and if that’s not possible, Corral in round two or after trading back into the first.
That would be a plan, whether you agree with it or not.
My fear is you’d be missing out on better players chasing the quarterback position. We saw that in 2011 when the likes of Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder started coming off the board ahead of players like Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt and Robert Quinn.
There’s so much talent to be had at the non-QB positions this year that any pick spent on a quarterback could be a major missed opportunity.
But what’s the alternative for this particular front office? Waiting until next year would be my preference, after building up the roster this year. I’ve said it so many times it’s becoming boring — but Will Levis at Kentucky would be a far better prospect to target if you’re willing to wait it out for 12 months.
I’m just not convinced Carroll will be. Or that he’ll feel like he can afford a bad season as part of a long-term rebuild.
That could mean gearing up for a gamble in the 2022 draft.
If the Seahawks spend money on a pass rusher and a left tackle in the next few days — it becomes an increasingly like prospect.
If the aim is to be competitive next season (and by competitive I don’t mean ‘contenders’ in any way, shape or form) they’ll need to be active soon with a number of gaping holes on the roster. If those holes mainly go unaddressed, it might equally be a sign that the Seahawks are willing to be patient and build through the draft.
That would be a very mature and appropriate approach.
It’s the one I hope they go for.
Draft note
Channing Tindall today ran a 4.03 short shuttle. That is right in Seattle’s ball-park and confirms both he and Leo Chenal are prime candidates to replace Bobby Wagner.
Meanwhile if you missed my interview with Chenal, you can check it out below. You can now get ‘The Rebuild’ podcast via Spotify too (click here to follow the channel).
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