Here it is then — my first horizontal board for the 2023 draft.
I haven’t done one of these in November before. Typically I wait until after the combine. Testing and how players perform at the Senior Bowl will dramatically impact grades. There are plenty of players to be discovered at those two events — and there players I simply haven’t had a chance to watch yet. Remember, I do this as a hobby in my spare time. The amount of work that has gone into this initial board is frightening. I will get to other players in time — so keep that in mind.
I’m considering hosting a live stream Q&A discussing the board if there’s enough interest from the community. Let me know in the comments section if it’s something people would be interested in this week. It’ll only work if there are plenty of questions coming in through the live chat.
I’ve also posted a huge pile of notes below the board so check them out. Be warned, it’s 7000 words long…
Click the image to enlarge the horizontal board:
What is this draft class actually like?
It’s thin for round one. I have 10 players with ‘legit’ first round grades, including four quarterbacks. It’s light on what you might call obvious blue-chippers who would go in the top-10 any given year. You can make an argument that Jalen Carter, Will Anderson and Bijan Robinson fall into that category. As such, the top-10 might not provide great value (which is a similar situation to what we experienced in the 2022 draft — although there are early round quarterbacks in this class).
What I would say, though, is there are some appealing options on day two and an opportunity to improve your overall talent and depth. What the Seahawks do in the first round though, with two picks, will be a big debate for the next few months. I don’t think there’s an obvious clear plan of action.
At the moment they have the #7 pick and the #22 pick. It’s possible a good defensive player is available at #7. It’s also very possible that Carter and Anderson are both gone and the top player available in that area is a quarterback or the running back Robinson. You can make an argument for trading up and down but I also think this team would really benefit from another draft like their 2022 class where they stayed put and just added talent with sensible picks. The Seahawks need to get better in key positions but they also need to add quality and depth across the board.
Defensive players I really like
There are some appealing options and I wanted to get into that first, with a lot of fans hoping this will be a defensive-centric class.
There’s a bit of everything here. Elite athletes with untapped potential. Unorthodox body types with sensational production and/or testing profiles. You’ll need to work out how these players fit at the next level. Plus there are solid prospects who might not test that well but their college performances have caught the eye.
I’ve given Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey a fringe first round grade and I wanted to single him out first because he might be the most intriguing yet challenging player to assess in this class.
I haven’t seen a player with his first-step quickness, ability to pair his hands and feet together to beat blocks, explosive burst and disruptive quality since Aaron Donald. Now, that isn’t to say Kancey is Donald. Nobody is ever going to be Aaron Donald. He is a one-off. He is a unicorn. He’s a ripped, low body-fat, powerful machine filled with violence and speed — somehow combining the quicks of an elite edge rusher with a frame just big enough to handle every down duty inside.
It’s no slur on Kancey to say he doesn’t match that description. Yet their physical profiles are similar. Donald measured 6-0 3/4 and 285lbs at his combine. Kancey is listed at 6-0 and 280lbs. Donald ran a 4.68 forty and jumped a 32 inch vertical. Kancey has been timed running a 4.69 and has jumped a 31.5 inch vertical.
When you watch the tape, you feel like you’re watching Donald sometimes:
Now, it is worth noting that while Kancey has impressive production (34 TFL’s, 15.5 sacks for Pittsburgh) he’s still a long way behind Donald — perfectly illustrating that nobody will ever be Donald 2.0 (66 TFL’s for Pittsburgh and 29.5 sacks).
Yet the Seahawks do need to find a young, disruptive interior threat. They’ve needed it for years. Perhaps Kancey will be worth taking a chance on?
I’m not sure whether he will appeal strongly to Seattle though, or whether his production will translate. The Seahawks have typically sought long-armed defensive tackles — even among shorter, squatty linemen (see: Poona Ford). For all of Kancey’s brilliant athletic features it’s possible his lack of length will stymy his ability to keep his frame clean and he could be overwhelmed at the next level against better blockers.
It’s also hard to work out what his position is. You probably couldn’t play him on early downs at 280lbs because unless he is Donald 2.0 he’ll likely be smothered. Can you play him in a three man front? Possibly. Yet his best quality is attacking the interior to force pressure, not acting as a five-technique.
If he’s ultimately viewed as a specialist interior rusher who plays mostly passing downs — he could impact a lot of games but how early do you take a player who might not play a high percentage of snaps?
How he fits is a quandary teams will need to work out. Yet his tape, the consistency with which he wins, his testing profile and his ability to wreak havoc on the interior warrants celebrating and as such, I’m comfortable with a fringe first round grade in this initial attempt at a horizontal board. Provided he tests as well as expected — I wouldn’t have an issue with any team taking a shot on him in round one, even if it ultimately doesn’t work out. Can you really blame anyone for trying to find the next Aaron Donald?
It’s a similar story for Tyrus Wheat. He plays outside linebacker but has an unconventional frame for the position. He has a chunky build at 6-2 and 270lbs. He’s caught between an edge and a three-technique type and doesn’t really fit either ideally. He’s not typically a player the Seahawks have drafted. They tend to go after the praying-mantis style frame — long and lean. There are players in this class — Will McDonald, B.J. Ojulari — who fit that profile. There are also more conventional LEO/EDGE types such as K.J. Henry. All are extremely athletic and filled with potential and could offer value in the top-50.
Wheat has freakish athleticism though. Watch him dunk a basketball below. Yes, that’s him playing with Philadelphia Eagles’ receiver and former Heisman winner DeVonta Smith:
How do you grade a player like this? He’s so unconventional to look at, yet his testing profile is expected to be astonishing — and you can see that in the video above and with plays like this:
He can be powerful and dynamic off the edge but the incredible thing is how well he drops in coverage. He’s recorded an interception every year at Mississippi State — not usual for a defensive lineman/linebacker. He also has six career PBU’s.
Both Kancey and Wheat are intriguing, unusual players who will shine at the combine. I’m not sure either will end up in Seattle, due to the years of data we have on their ‘types’ — but I wanted to touch on them here to begin.
I think it’s a reasonable safety class and it’s why the Seahawks should seriously consider saving money on Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, despite the hefty dead money hit, to go in a different direction.
A reminder — if you designate Diggs as a post-June 1st cut, which is what they did with Carlos Dunlap this year, you save $14m and can split the dead money between 2023 and 2024 ($4.1m each year). If you designate Adams as a post-June 1st cut you save $11m but would take on a $7.1m dead hit in 2023 and a whopping $14.2m dead hit in 2024.
You can designate two players per year as a post-June 1st cut, so this is possible. I don’t think the Seahawks will do it but the $25m saving might pay for Geno Smith’s next deal and would give you ample money to fill out your roster and retain/replace the likes of Poona Ford and Jason Myers.
Certainly it feels very difficult to justify a $36m outlay on Adams and Diggs next year when you only have around $32m in effective cap space for 2023, you only have 33 contracted players and currently have zero quarterbacks signed beyond this season.
If they do seek replacements in the draft, there are options.
Christopher Smith is a dynamic free safety who covers ground brilliantly. You can leave him deep to help support cornerbacks against the deep-ball. He can run up to the line and hit in the running game and short-passing game. He plays with intensity and quickness and is generally a very sure tackler:
I’m not convinced Smith will have a brilliant testing session at the combine and that could limit his stock. He’s not Earl Thomas. Yet if he runs a solid 4.4 or low 4.5 there’s no reason why he can’t be a second round option.
Ji’Ayir Brown is another player with a stocky, unconventional frame for his position but he’s an outstanding athlete who just makes plays. He has 9 interceptions over the last two seasons. He’s reportedly capable of a 3.99 short shuttle at 208lbs and is said to run in the 4.45 range. He’s well known as the voice of the Penn State locker room and he will also likely be a day two pick.
JL Skinner is a punishing, tone-setting hitter who will make opponents fear running any kind of crossing route. He can play up at the line and defend the run tremendously. He’s no slouch in coverage and he has a physical mentality that isn’t a million miles off Kam Chancellor:
Skinner looks like a day two pick with the potential to rise higher if he tests well. He has an impressive, focused mindset too which will appeal to teams. I’m a big fan of bringing him in to add some violence back to the secondary.
There’s also Brian Branch at Alabama. He’s another excellent athlete (reportedly he’s clocked 22.3mph on the GPS system) and a polished performer. There are two sides to his game. For the most part he’s a Rolls Royce in coverage and plays with a smooth quality, with sudden, gliding movements. Yet he can also hit like a hammer and has had some big tackles this season. He’s played in the slot and at safety and will likely be a first round pick even if I am personally grading him in the second round.
Later on — I’m intrigued to see how Wisconsin’s John Torchio tests because he’s an underrated player with speed, playmaking quality and some toughness. He was very impressive against Ohio State this year. TCU’s Abraham Camara has also been a bit of a gem at times this season. He can hit, he’s got a smooth back-pedal and can line up in a variety of spots. I’m not sure, however, that he’ll turn pro in 2023.
Back to the D-line and regulars will know I’ve been a big fan of Alabama’s Byron Young for some time. He impacts every game and doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention. People are acting like his performance on Saturday against Ole Miss was some kind of arrival. It wasn’t. He’s been making plays all season.
Young lives in the backfield — he is constantly winning 1v1 to either push his blocker back into the pocket or use his combination of power and quickness to shed and penetrate. He has a knack of knowing when to stay put, jump and get a paw in the air to deflect a pass. He’s extremely versatile and can play inside at defensive tackle or as a 3-4 DE.
How many 6-3, 295lbs defensive linemen do you see attack the edge like this?
Young is high-character and a passionate performer on the field, highly respected by team mates. It won’t surprise me if the Washington Commanders draft him in round two if they need to replace Da’Ron Payne. He’s not necessarily going to be an 8-10 sack dynamo at the next level but if you want someone who can play with discipline, deliver consistent results and can be both stout against the run but also provide surprising ability against the pass — Young is one to monitor. I think he’d be an excellent fit for Seattle’s modified scheme and I’m grading him in round two before any testing results are known.
It’s a thick looking defensive end class and there will options stretching deep into round two. This is a contrast to the depth at defensive tackle which is, once again, extremely thin. I would suggest that if you want to draft a defensive tackle you’ll need to do it early. Michigan’s Mazi Smith will be a combine star and should join Jalen Carter in the top-12 range. The positional value runs out very quickly, though.
If the Seahawks address their D-line in free agency, it’ll be indicative of the limited options in the rookie pool.
As noted earlier, the Seahawks have tended to go for lean length in their edge rushers and LEO types. The most obvious players who fit the bill in this class are Tyree Wilson (he will be a high first rounder), K.J. Henry (for me, a top-45 type), B.J. Ojulari (also top-45) and Will McDonald (could easily end up in round one despite an underwhelming 2022 season). Washington’s Bralen Trice, if he declares, is a very intriguing player and TCU’s Dylan Horton — despite some hit-and-miss tape — is expected to test well.
Keep an eye on Michigan’s Mike Morris too. He has amazing size and agility, plus the ability to embarrass blockers by using speed-to-power. I don’t think he’s played with enough urgency this year, apart from the rivarly/revenge game against Michigan State where he played like his pants were on fire. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of potential here and he has the size to play five-technique or power-end.
Oregon defensive back Trikweze Bridges screams Seahawks. He has an incredible lean frame, enormous long arms and he appears tailor made to be drafted and developed by this team. His tackling and coverage has improved this season, he’s developed into more of a playmaker (three interceptions this season) and even if he doesn’t go in round two, I think that’s a solid mark for what he is and is indicative of his immense potential.
The talk about Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith being a possible top-10 pick was always a bit much for me. It was a similar story with Nakobe Dean a year ago. Smith’s performances are decent but he’s asked to rush the passer off the edge and it isn’t his best role. Every time I’ve watched him I’ve always been left wanting more. He should be developed as a more orthodox linebacker because he has an unbelievable testing profile — but he isn’t an EDGE. Georgia used him as an EDGE too often.
Even NFL.com, in reporting his season-ending injury a couple of weeks ago, referred to Smith as a ‘top edge rush prospect’. That isn’t him. He needs to be a more conventional linebacker.
At SPARQ he ran a 4.15 short shuttle at 235lbs, jumped a 40 inch vertical and delivered a world class overall score of 141.18. In terms of pure potential and athletic freakishness — as a day two pick he would be a brilliant project to try and turn into something special in his more natural position. Teams will love his character and personality. He has a ‘you’d be happy for your daughter to marry this guy’ vibe and he’ll get top marks during interviews.
Put him in space, let him roam the field and fly to the ball-carrier. Use him occasionally as a pass rusher. He averaged three sacks a season at Georgia and five TFL’s. There’s a player here but he’s not a top-15 EDGE like many are saying. Thus, he likely lasts a bit longer than people are suggesting but the sky’s the limit for him due to his physical profile.
On a similar note, Owen Pappoe at Auburn has had a fairly horrible season. That is, until the Head Coach was fired recently and he suddenly looked a lot better against Texas A&M at the weekend. As with Smith, he has an unbelievable testing profile. He ran a 4.00 short shuttle at SPARQ, jumped a 40 inch vertical and had another world class overall score of 147.12.
The Seahawks have often sought big-time athletes at linebacker. Pappoe’s unspectacular play in college likely puts him the third round range. As a project, he’d be a good option.
Another linebacker, Ventrell Miller, is a different story. He isn’t likely to have the brilliant combine that Smith and Pappoe are capable of. However, he’s played his arse off all season for Florida. He’s played through injury. He flies to the football, sniffs out anything to the sideline and he’s the emotional leader of the Gators defense. I don’t know whether his profile will fit Seattle’s athletic preferences but he’s been really fun to watch all season and it’s easy to imagine him providing a steadying presence at the next level too.
Buyer beware on big name defenders
There are players in this class who are being consistently touted as high picks. They probably will be too due to their testing profile and potential.
There are some things to note, however, that aren’t being discussed enough in the broader media.
For example — Myles Murphy plays like a pussycat. His size and pass-rushing qualities are appealing. There’s no dog in him though. He’s been a liability against the run this year and he didn’t even start Clemson’s recent game against Louisville. I get a lot of ‘decent not great’ vibes from Murphy — a bit like another former Clemson rusher, Shaq Lawson. There’s also not a lot of muscle definition on Murphy’s frame. It kind of makes you wonder whether he’s been able to get by as a great, natural athlete where everything has just been fairly easy for him so far. Then at the next level, against other great athletes, is he going to be able to find that edge to be a difference maker? Or will he play within himself?
Clemson team mate Bryan Bresee has been through a lot over the last 14 months. He had an ACL injury a year ago and his younger sister sadly passed away recently due to cancer. There are justifiable reasons why he hasn’t found his best form in 2022.
That said, we have to evaluate what he’s put on tape and he tends to play in only flashes. He had a great sack early in the Louisville game at the weekend, for example, then disappeared.
There are plenty of reps this year where he’s controlled by a middling interior blocker 1v1. Is he a better athlete than football player at this point?
At the same time, you watch his High School tape and it’s reminiscent of Jadeveon Clowney before he went to South Carolina:
Bresee, as with Clowney, looks like an adult that has been allowed to play against children. That’s the type of freakish physical specimen he is. If you draft him early, you could end up with a special talent. Yet his talent needs to be harnessed properly. He needs to learn to make the most of his physical tools and get off blocks. He needs to be more disruptive, forceful and consistent.
For example — Bresee’s PFF grade this year is a 67.3. Jalen Carter’s is a 91.5. In three years at Clemson, Bresee’s grade has never topped 70.
He’s expected to run in the 4.7’s at 310lbs and if that happens, all bets are off. Yet it shouldn’t be assumed teams will view him as a sure-fire top-12 pick based on the tape that’s available.
Tyree Wilson’s tape at Texas Tech is quite a thing too. His performance against NC State was exceptional. He’s 275lbs, has +35 inch arms and his combination of speed and power is rare. When he turns it on, he can be unstoppable in college. He can rush the edge, he can dip inside, he can bull-rush as well as he can win with quickness. He has everything.
Yet there are plenty of games where you’re just left wanting more. I think he’s a lock to go in the top-15 and he could be a serious option for Seattle as a versatile piece who can disrupt as an EDGE or a five-technique. Again though, you want to see more consistency in his performance. Like Bresee, the idea is sometimes better than the reality. But at least Wilson has shown evidence of brilliance. It would also be quite the thing if Seattle used Denver’s first round pick on a player called ‘Wilson’.
Discussing the quarterbacks
Why have I got Will Levis as the top quarterback and Anthony Richardson #2?
The process of judging quarterbacks goes way beyond stats and results. You are making a projection based on transferable skills. You also need to consider situation, scheme, traits, accuracy. It’s a nuanced process.
Trying to find a franchise quarterback is incredibly difficult and no way of doing things is fool proof. I will explain my thoughts and hope we can avoid ‘Levis/Richardson suck’ replies because frankly they’re a waste of time. Also, I have no horse in this race. I don’t have personal biases (why would I?). Other players I’ve liked previously have been dropped while others I’ve been sceptical about have risen over the last few weeks of tape study.
I’ve also watched every game most of the quarterbacks have played this year, at great cost to my social life, so if nothing else I’m speaking from a position of intense research.
It’s very easy to watch Kentucky or Florida at various times this year and think the team and thus the quarterback stinks. There are a few things to consider though.
Firstly, Levis and Richardson are the only two quarterbacks within the top group functioning within a system even remotely close to ‘pro-style’. Both players are making checks at the line, they are adjusting, they are responsible for protection shifts and they orchestrate the offense. Both have handled these duties well for the most part. They will enter the league with a degree of expertise that the other quarterbacks will need to learn.
Of course, that alone isn’t enough to justify a higher grade. Levis and Richardson also have exceptional traits and upside. They are big, strong, athletic players. They are both capable of throwing off-platform and off-balance with power and accuracy. They have been able to make the improbable happen:
They can both improvise, create and they can drive the ball downfield. They have made big plays with their legs either to avoid pressure or break off big runs.
There are also issues they need to rectify. Levis’ footwork is inconsistent and has led to some sloppy turnovers at Kentucky. Of course his high number of interceptions will always be highlighted. Let’s also acknowledge that his latest, against Vanderbilt, was a last play heave on fourth and forever with seconds to go. He had one against Florida that was really a sack/fumble. Not all interceptions are the same and while Levis is certainly responsible for some — I would argue that his are mostly less egregious than some of the other players in this class (more on that in a moment).
Levis has also had to deal with a nightmarish situation in Kentucky. It’s interesting that during the Washington vs Oregon game on Saturday, Bo Nix was sacked and the commentator noted it was only the second time all season he’d been sacked.
Kentucky’s horrible O-line has given up 39 sacks this season — the fourth most in college football. Only Akron, Colorado State and Tulsa have conceded more.
By the way, they play Georgia on Saturday. Good luck, Will.
Here are some comparisons:
Oregon — 2 sacks
Ohio State — 7 sacks
Washington — 7 sacks
Florida — 12 sacks
Alabama — 17 sacks
Tennessee — 22 sacks (six vs Georgia)
Kentucky — 39 sacks
On top of that, Kentucky possesses a bits-and-pieces crew of receivers and tight ends, plus a porous defense.
Levis has been hammered, battered and bruised all season — with almost no support and at times, no chance. Without him, I’m not sure how many wins they would’ve had. Possibly as few as one or two courtesy of their non-conference schedule.
These are things you have to consider when judging players. Environments are different. He isn’t playing in a wide-open, one-read, half-field system throwing to first round picks and tearing up opponents for a power-house team. He has been a piñata in Kentucky.
Again, that’s not to totally excuse the errors this year. It is something to consider though. So many of the big name QB’s are not having to endure what he is. Levis has outstanding physical tools, a huge arm and he can do everything NFL teams want their quarterbacks to do in 2022. There’s a reason respected evaluators like Jim Nagy are comparing him to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. He has faced adversity and produced Kentucky’s best period of winning football in years. He has excellent character.
Levis is an easy projection due to his transferable skills. It doesn’t mean he will succeed in the NFL. Far from it. But when you’re a GM making a decision with a high first round pick — and your job depends on getting this right — it’s easy to square the circle in your mind about Levis’ pro potential.
As for Richardson — he has been unfairly judged this season. After a sluggish start (understandable given this is his first full year as a starter) — he has really improved. He hasn’t had a turnover in four games. He now has a total touchdown tally of 20 with only 7 interceptions.
We are talking about a player who could become another Josh Allen. Like Allen, it might take some time to settle into life in the NFL but when he gets there — watch out. This is a player capable of throwing a 60-yard bomb and running for a 75-yard touchdown in the same game. He is mentally processing at a level most quarterbacks are not, despite all the talk of being ‘raw’.
There aren’t many more exciting players than Richardson to emerge in the last few years. And yes — he does have to improve in certain areas. He has too many throws that are a little behind the intended target or just miss the mark. He needs to work out how to make the most of his physical tools as a runner and he needs to throw with a bit more variety when it comes to touch.
Yet the sky is the limit for Richardson. He could go first overall. Believe it. Teams want to take a chance on ‘special’ and that’s what he is. Don’t be surprised if, as the process goes along, Richardson emerges as the player to have. He has MVP physical potential.
Quickly on to other players. I am a huge fan, like everyone else, of Bryce Young. I really admire the way he plays. He’s accurate, he’s extremely creative and his personality and attitude are likeable. There are times this year where he’s dragged a surprisingly sluggish Alabama kicking and screaming into contests.
I do think, however, it’s not wrong to question whether a 5-10, 185lbs quarterback translates to the next level. Can he succeed at the same rate, when he isn’t playing for Alabama and he’s facing a lot more adversity? He’s already had one shoulder injury this year and it has impacted his throwing power and accuracy in recent weeks. He has been a bit more streaky. It’s not wrong to show some concern about how he’ll stand up to the upcoming battering that’s heading his way.
Quarterback debates become so tribal online and people are already going to war over this group. I would say — there’s nothing wrong with believing that Young should be the #1 pick. It’s a valid argument. If others question how a player like this will translate to the NFL — that should be fine too. It is also a valid argument.
Young will be a first round pick. Possibly a very early first round pick. I’m suspicious that teams will view him the same way the media does. We’ll find out soon enough. I just don’t think there’s a right or wrong opinion here. Young will be a very interesting case-study and how he performs will influence future decision making because there’s never really been anyone like him before. I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed anywhere from #1 overall to #20.
I think C.J. Stroud might suffer too. He has an elite supporting cast and like Hendon Hooker, Mike Penix Jr and others — he plays in a hand-holding, uber-spread system that makes his life easy. He has had some questionable throws and off-games, mixed in with some of the prettiest passes you’ll ever see. His intermediate accuracy suffers at times but he’s also throwing outstanding touch passes deep downfield with perfect placement and velocity. He has brilliant arm talent yet he’s largely untested in terms of dealing with pressure, going through progressions and managing an offense.
All three of the players I’ve just mentioned (Stroud, Hooker, Penix Jr) are in the same environment. Watch the games. You see them stare down a safety or linebacker to freeze them in position. The aim is to create a window so they can throw to the intended target as their only real read. When it works, it’s great. I’ve never seen a QB throw to wide open players at the rate Hooker has this year. I think I could’ve thrown some of his touchdown passes. When you get players to bite and someone like Jalin Hyatt is able to accelerate against single coverage, it’s no contest. That to me isn’t particularly impressive and needs to be acknowledged when you’re watching these wide open schemes.
Stroud and Penix, similarly, get a lot of favourable opportunities.
Those two in particular will win a lot of admirers. They both have outstanding arm talent. Thus, when the scheme works as intended, they look amazing. They hold the safety, their intended target gets open. They don’t have to think or read. They just deliver.
Yet the problem is none of these players are actually processing at the line. They look to the sideline, get told what to do and they do it. It’s why we’ve seen all three, amazingly, throw the same interception this year. You could take a screen grab of the intended receiver each time and the only difference is the jersey colours. When the defense doesn’t bite on the look-off — and they still return to their intended target and throw blind, expecting it to work — they throw into triple coverage. There has literally been a triangle of defenders surrounding the one player the offense tells them to go to on picks all three have thrown this year.
It would be staggering for a NFL quarterback to throw into that coverage. He would be expected to process what the defense is giving him, not throw to what the cardboard cut-out says on the sideline — with the coaches making the decision for him.
At the next level you need to be able to go through reads and make those decisions yourself. Your offensive coordinator or Head Coach isn’t going to tell you what to do and then hope it clicks into place. You need to read a defense, make adjustments, then go through two or three progressions. These guys don’t.
As such, these players are harder to project because you don’t know how they’ll handle a pro-offense. Who knows if they’ll be able to process, make good decisions and throw in a completely different environment than the one they experienced in college?
I would be happy to take a chance on Stroud early because he has all of the tools to be great. But he needs time to learn how to be a NFL quarterback. I genuinely fear for him if he’s thrown in at the deep end as a rookie. Give him a year playing behind a good, veteran quarterback. Look how Patrick Mahomes benefitted playing behind Alex Smith for a year.
Penix Jr will need the same. When he has had to think on his feet and make decisions — at times we’ve seen moments like the ugly pick against Oregon. When he isn’t protected by the scheme, can he use his head to get his clearly impressive arm to make the right throws? That is a big question mark and I’m not convinced, based on what I’ve seen this year, that he’ll thrive when he is required to take on a lot more responsibility. Plus, he has a significant injury history and when he’s come up against other quarterbacks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson at UCLA, he’s been second best. Yet the arm talent is special.
People will ask why I now have Penix Jr graded in round three. His arm is so impressive it warrants that kind of a grade. He has won me over to an extent simply because of the arm. I still wouldn’t necessarily vouch for him becoming a NFL starter and I’m not sure I’d want to take him in round three given some of the other players who might be available in that range. That said, there aren’t many players with an arm like his. Someone will give him a chance to eventually compete for a job.
On Hooker — he’s clearly had a terrific season and helped elevate Tennessee to a new level. That said — he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie. He’s been a lot less accurate than people realise this year. As noted earlier, I’ve not seen a player have so many wide open throws in a single season. There have been some oddly inaccurate throws covered up by the insane production delivered by the admittedly brilliant Josh Heupel scheme. Hooker is also throwing to two potential top-45 picks with one of the very best offensive tackles in college football, Darnell Wright, protecting him.
Elsewhere, I’m a big admirer of UCLA’s Thompson-Robinson. He’s taken a huge leap forward this year and is a fantastic playmaker, an accurate passer, a dynamic athlete and for me his floor will be a Tyrod Taylor style backup — with the potential to claim a starting job in the right environment.
Stanford’s Tanner McKee has little hope of succeeding in Stanford’s putrid setup. Look at these numbers courtesy of PFF’s Mike Renner…
Percentage of throws 10+ yards downfield that are charted as tight windows:
McKee — 52.7%
Levis — 39.3%
Richardson — 34.5%
Hooker — 24.8%
Young — 24.1%
Stroud — 23.3%
It’s another reason why we need to consider situation vs production/stats/aesthetics.
I do get a bit of a Mike Glennon vibe with McKee. Someone will give him a chance, as they did with Glennon (multiple teams, actually, when it came to Glennon).
Overall I think this is a good quarterback class with early round options and some depth. However, I do wonder if teams will view players like Jalen Carter and Will Anderson as ‘better bets’ at the top of round one — especially if they can either hold off on the quarterback position or if they have two early picks (eg the Houston Texans) meaning they might be able to go Carter/Anderson first — then take a quarterback with their second pick (or trade up).
For the Seahawks, despite everything this year, I don’t think they should look a gift-horse in the mouth if a player like Anthony Richardson is available to draft, stash and develop. That should remain a consideration.
Let’s also not rule out the possibility that Geno Smith will be too expensive to retain for a team not flush with cap space in 2023. I asked Pete Carroll yesterday about the possibility of contract talks before the end of the season and he seemed to suggest that was unlikely:
This is the right approach, of course, because I think you need the league to help establish Smith’s market. Currently, you’re only bidding against yourself. I don’t think another team is going to blow Smith (who turns 33 next year) away with a contract offer and would imagine him staying in Seattle is a formality. If it did happen, though, the prospect of a rookie quarterback becomes much more likely. And I do think the Seahawks spent accordingly this year expecting that they’d go quarterback early in 2023. Having only $33m in effective cap space makes a lot more sense if you’re paying your quarterback $6m in 2023 rather than $20-30m.
Final notes
There are some attractive running backs if the Seahawks opt to move on from Rashaad Penny. Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh would be a fantastic third round option. He’s not only a terrific pass-catcher out of the backfield (a nice third down back) but he’s also a vicious runner who packs a punch with good size. I’ll keep trotting out this quote from Georgia coach Kirby Smith, speaking about McIntosh: “I told him he’s a bad MF-er. He’s tough. He’s physical.”
UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet is a tremendous player who deserves a second round grade and Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez is a yards-after-contact beast.
At the top of the running back class is obviously Texas’ Bijan Robinson — a player likely to garner a top-three grade on most boards.
At tight end — Michael Mayer is a tremendous player and possibly the best catcher of a football away from his body I’ve ever seen. His straight-line speed is a small concern but his short-area quickness, agility and ability to gain subtle separation makes up for it. He operates mostly out of the slot but he’s a good in-line blocker too.
Watch out for Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave. He will dominate the combine and should generate second round buzz. Georgia’s Darnell Washington is built like a tank and is basically a sixth offensive lineman who can run a few routes. Dalton Kincaid at Utah is a prolific pass-catcher and has a transferable skill-set for the modern NFL.
I don’t think the Seahawks will spend big on the interior O-line moving forward, at least if they’re all-in on the LA Rams’ blocking scheme. That said, I’m a huge fan of Kansas State guard Cooper Beebe who I have marked for round two. He’s physical, dominant and he moves well for his size. He can be a brilliant puller from the guard spot. He can also bury defenders:
I also really like TCU’s Steve Avila — he has great mobility for his size, he’s incredibly competitive and strong at the POA. He’s played guard, center and tackle for TCU. He’s incredibly athletic for a 340lbs linemen. I have Avila in round three.
I think two of the highly touted tackle prospects — Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Georgia’s Broderick Jones — are better suited to left guard. I wouldn’t advocate necessarily taking either with a high pick (I have them both graded for round two). I think Damien Lewis is worth persevering with and his PFF grade is a team-high (for the O-line) 71.6.
I also really like the center class. Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz is big, bad and physical. Joe Tippman and Ricky Stromberg are both tremendous athletes for their size and should test very well. Michigan’s Olusegun Oluwatimi is Mr. Dependable and Sedrick Van Pran has a nice combo of sound technique and plus athleticism. There’s some depth at the position with Oregon’s Alex Forsyth just providing a sturdy ‘gets the job done’ approach. I’m not sure Seattle will draft a center early given they seem to be very much in the Rams’ mindset of going with a smaller, wrestling-style brawler. None of the centers I’ve watched so far fit that description.
I do hope the Seahawks stick to trenches though. They had so much success doing that with the 2022 class and as we saw in Germany, there’s still work to be done on both lines. Keep building up front.
Finally, it’s another loaded receiver class. I really like the idea of drafting a big, athletic WR3. TCU’s Quentin Johnston has a remarkable frame and testing profile and could be an option early in round one. I’m a big fan of the Tennessee duo of Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman.
Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo is massively underrated by the media and might be my preferred option in round two. He’s a real mismatch when he lines up as a big slot, he has soft hands and he’s just a pain in the arse to cover:
You’ve also got West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton if he declares — another very intriguing big, athletic receiver who is reportedly capable of a 40 inch vertical, a 10-8 broad and a 4.02 short shuttle at 6-4 and 225lbs.
The class is also made up of dynamic smaller receivers. Boston College’s Zay Flowers and North Carolina’s Josh Downs in particular stand out. Flowers has the best stop-start and change of direction ability I’ve ever seen in a receiver and Downs is a lot like a Tyler Lockett/Golden Tate hybrid.
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