Month: April 2023 (Page 5 of 5)

I’ve added a few players to my horizontal draft board and tweaked some grades. You can see it in full here, just click on the image to enlarge:

I will do one more update to the board before the draft.

The ‘first round grades’ I’ve given are defined as legit first rounders who would be taken in that range in any draft. The players in the second tier (R1-2) are players I’d be very prepared to take in round one this year, albeit without the legit top-grade.

Some notes:

— I think Josh Downs is the clear WR1 in this draft. I think he’s a top-15 prospect overall. It’s mostly an unimpressive receiver class and that might make it hard for the Seahawks to address their need at WR3. Equally, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took someone like Downs earlier than people expect. My WR2 is Jonathan Mingo. I’ve been banging the drum for him for months and finally it seems like he’s getting some attention. I’ve dropped Quentin Johnston after a disappointing pro-day.

— It’s just so easy to like the top tight ends. They have a great combination of blocking ability and traits matching the top players at the position. We’ve identified the need to run well in the short shuttle and the 10-yard split if you want a physical profile matching the best in the NFL. That’s what this group has. They also complement pass-catching ability with a willingness to do the ugly side of the game in the trenches. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the Seahawks take a tight end in the first two rounds. Otherwise you risk missing out. They can afford a ‘luxury’ pick for the future with one of these 10 selections. It could also produce a situation where you can trade Noah Fant after the draft to save $6.5m.

— I’ve moved Darnell Wright up to a legit first round prospect. That means he’d go in round one any year, per my own grading. He’s had a complete off-season. Terrific Senior Bowl. Explosive, athletic testing. Excellent combine drills. His tape is superb — particularly the way he locked-down Will Anderson. The other thing to mention though — remember that Will McDonald had success against him at the Senior Bowl. That wasn’t so much a knock on Wright as it was evidence of McDonald’s quality. If the Seahawks don’t take Anderson with their top pick, McDonald could be firmly on their radar — possibly at #20.

— Are there a lot of ‘edge’ rush names in this draft? Yes. Is it a good ‘edge’ rush class? No, not really.

— I’ve moved Tyree Wilson down to a ‘prepared to take in round one this year’ grade. I love his size, frame and ability to barge his way into the backfield. After re-watching his film though, he’s too inconsistent. He doesn’t win off the edge with speed. There are flashes on tape that get you excited but there’s also a lot of mediocre snaps where he goes through the motions. We don’t have any testing numbers to gauge upside. I think he’s a good prospect who has become a bit overrated as a top-five projection.

— I thought it was really interesting what John Schneider said about the nose tackle position last week. Basically, he suggested if you can play nose in college you can do it in the NFL. He didn’t place a big emphasis on it — making me wonder if they’ll take a random ‘big bodied’ player later in the draft who can soak up the needed snaps without a big investment. It’s why I think Jaquelin Roy might be a key target — he played a lot of snaps at LSU. But they might wait until day three to address this need.

— They’ve typically waited until the middle rounds to draft D-liners. Part of me wonders whether they’ll wait until the late second, third and fourth round to add youth and snaps to their defensive front. Cameron Young, Byron Young and Moro Ojomo are all very good mid-round options. It’s still a great thought to imagine Adetomiwa Adebawore, Calijah Kancey or Keion White disrupting from the front — and Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton and Mazi Smith remain good options too. If they did take Will Anderson at #5 — part of me wonders what it’d be like to see a pass rush featuring Anderson and Kancey. The lack of length could be seen as a problem with Kancey though.

— The cornerback class lacks the top-five talent it had a year ago but look how thick it is. I recently watched Corey Trice at Purdue and think he has excellent potential as a mid-round option. His team mate Reece Taylor isn’t bad either. LSU’s Jay Ward looks like a classic safety-to-cornerback convert in Seattle, while Rezjohn Wright screams ‘Seahawks’ with his frame. If they’re inclined to take a corner, the fourth or fifth round is a really good range to get one of ‘their guys’ to coach up. If Devon Witherspoon lasts to #20, part of me does wonder whether they’ll be too tempted by his swagger and intense passion for beating the crap out of opponents.

— People are sleeping on the safety class (I used to be one of them). It’s deep, rich and talented. It’s not full of other-worldly athletes but it is full of kick-arse football players. I can see why Seattle released Ryan Neal from his tender. They can save money drafting one of these guys in the round 3-5 range. It’s also a class full of alpha’s with outstanding character. Just listen to them all speak in interviews. It’s so impressive. JL Skinner, Sydney Brown, Ji’Ayir Brown, Jammie Robinson, DeMarcco Hellams, Jordan Howden, Jerrick Reed — all players I’ve watched interview recently and been wowed with their maturity, confidence and focus. It’d be a shame to come out of this draft not picking from the position. There’s a lot of talent here.

I’m travelling to Dubai with my family today for a week in the sun. I’ll continue to write and will react to anything breaking. If I don’t reply immediately to questions, that’s why — but I will respond.

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Another day, another slice of speculation featuring the top-five in the draft…

There is "buzz leaguewide" about the #Colts selecting Will Levis 4th overall, according to @JFowlerESPN

Fowler says that several NFL teams believe Levis could be the pick for Indianapolis. pic.twitter.com/NWMLY4Ar19

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) April 2, 2023

This one makes sense for a few reasons (and has done for a while).

When the season ended and Chicago earned the #1 pick, the early frontrunner to trade up to #1 was Indianapolis. After years of trying various ageing veterans — and the firing of Frank Reich — it was finally time to invest in a young QB.

Even owner Jim Irsay blurted out his admiration for Bryce Young during a press conference, before pitching his relationship with the Bears as a pathway to a deal.

The Colts didn’t move up though. As time passed by, it felt increasingly like they weren’t even in the running.

Sticking at #4 appeared to be a statement that they were comfortable with the top-four quarterbacks. They were guaranteed to get the third or fourth QB. If they graded all four similarly, there was no pressure to move up (unlike Carolina, who were picking ninth).

The other thing to consider here is the Colts need someone who can play now. They don’t have a Geno Smith, Jared Goff or Jimmy Garoppolo bridge. They have Gardner Minshew. They might start Minshew in 2023 but they need someone who can realistically replace him at some point, or push to start immediately.

That isn’t Anthony Richardson. He needs time and ideally a redshirt year.

Levis, on the other hand, has been coached by two NFL offensive coordinators. He understands pro-concepts and language. He’s older and more mature. He’s also faced a ton of adversity at Kentucky, which will prepare him for the inevitable challenge that comes with transitioning to the pro’s.

I’ve seen some people argue that the Colts might trade down or take Will Anderson, then wait for Hendon Hooker. It’s a suggestion, I suppose, yet it feels unrealistic. For example — it’d only take one other team usurping them on Hooker to mean they end up with no young quarterback and no viable solution at the position. If they’re banking on trading up from #35 to get the Tennessee QB, it’d only take Tampa Bay sweeping him away at #19 and it’s game over. Or Minnesota at #24. Or even Seattle at #20.

Could they trade for Lamar Jackson after the draft? Sure — but how does that work? The Ravens will likely match any off-sheet put in. If you try and negotiate with them separately on a trade, how much will that cost? Especially given the Ravens would be left with a black hole at the position with the draft and free agency in the rearview mirror.

Unless they move up to #3 and are prepared to sit Richardson or start him immediately, it just feels very likely the Colts are comfortable selecting Levis. If they weren’t, I’m pretty sure they would’ve been more aggressive to move up by now. Or they would’ve made more of a push for Lamar Jackson, or they would’ve signed (or traded for) a bigger name veteran such as Garoppolo.

This assumes Levis even reaches #4. I think there’s going to be quite a bit of variety among teams in terms of quarterback rankings. Some will be put off by Bryce Young’s size. Some will be intrigued by Richardson’s physical upside, others will want a more ready-made player. The fact that Levis has worked in the McVay and Shanahan system will appeal. Let’s not forget that Houston is featuring the Shanahan offense.

Let’s just park that for a moment and imagine this goes as many expect, with C.J. Stroud and Young making up the top-two. If the Colts don’t feel obliged to move up to #3 because they’re comfortable taking Levis, what then?

It comes down to what we’ve been suggesting for a long time. Does Arizona trade out of that spot for a team coming up for Anthony Richardson (or Levis)? Do the Cardinals stay where they are and select Will Anderson?

Either way, it has felt for weeks that Seattle’s pick could be Richardson or Anderson. Who lasts and do you like either enough to trade up?

Forget personal preferences for a moment. We’ve all heard by now who wants what.

To me it makes perfect sense that the Seahawks are deliberating between these two options (seeing who lasts to #5 or considering a trade up if they like a player enough to do so). Corbin Smith reported recently that John Schneider spent considerable time speaking to Richardson’s agent at Florida’s pro-day. He also noted that Pete Carroll had a private meeting with Billy Napier.

Smith joined Michael-Shawn Dugar of the Athletic in publishing a piece with a headline including the words, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen’.

It just feels like they’re really intrigued by Richardson. Is it really a surprise? He’s a physical phenom. We’ve never seen a player like this. Carroll and Schneider have always talked about looking for field-tilting ability. I’m not sure a player has entered the draft with Richardson’s level of upside at the quarterback position. There’s clearly been more polished, refined, pro-ready talents. But there’s so much to work with here. It’d be such a Carroll move to want to harness that talent and ability.

Then there’s Schneider — with his history of quarterbacks and reasonable reports of players he was previously interested in. Richardson ticks a lot of the boxes he has seemingly looked for. On top of that, I just get the feeling that John has been positioning himself for this draft since the Russell Wilson trade. That he’s been eyeing a quarterback here.

I appreciate that’s just a hunch on my behalf. Yet he’s always struck me as someone who will ultimately judge himself on his quarterback decision making. That’s pretty much the Green Bay way. That franchise prides itself on the fact they’ve almost over-prepared at the position at times, yet have enjoyed a run of Favre-to-Rodgers which is fairly unprecedented in terms of production and quality.

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t think Schneider traded away the quarterback he hit a home-run on without a plan which possibly included this specific draft class.

Yet there’s also the other side. The one that has to acknowledge that Seattle’s season ended with everyone looking enviously at San Francisco’s defensive line. Whether Will Anderson can be as impactful as Nick Bosa or not, he’s still a heck of a player. Adding him to the pass rush will be immensely attractive.

I think a lot of fact-finding has been going on over the last week or so. That’s as much a reason to attend the pro-days as anything — and let’s not forget, Anderson was part of one of those pro-days too. Who is going where? Who is thinking of trading up?

It’s very easy to imagine Schneider speaking to Richardson’s agent to scope out what he’s hearing. Perhaps even to ask to be kept in touch as they piece this together.

What I am pretty certain about though, is that the Seahawks are not — as some fans might prefer — ‘definitely not taking a quarterback’. I think it’s a very real possibility. I think they’re weighing things up. You can afford to do this when you’re picking fifth overall and have a bunch of picks to play with.

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee the third quarterback — who they might rate very highly, irrespective of the fact they’re the third QB to leave the board (after all — Josh Allen was the third taken and so was Justin Herbert)?

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee Will Anderson?

How much are they prepared to spend to do it?

Or do they just want to see how the cards fall at #5?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a discussion that is being had, or has been had. If trading up is a non-starter than you sit and see what lasts. You might be delighted with the end result. You might be disappointed. They’ve got to determine what emotion they want to feel on draft night. Elation at getting the ‘must have’ player (if one exists) or contentment that you settled for what’s left.

How gutted will you be if you’re eyeing one player and have to settle for another, because another team traded up to #3?

Personally I’d be very excited about Richardson or Anderson. I suspect the Seahawks feel similarly — and I’d add Levis to that mix too. It’s just whether one player has emerged during this process that they really ‘have to have’. If so, go get him. If not, then it’s all good.

It’s why I’ve tried to stress a few times this off-season that the Seahawks are in a good place, with some very attractive options. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. But I think we can see a picture emerging of the options facing Seattle — and the likely players they’ll be able to consider.

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It feels necessary to write this again. The options for Seattle in this draft are really good.

I first made that case after the final game of the regular season. The Seahawks had dropped from the #3 pick to #5. A lot of people were dismayed but it was still a great position to be in.

At the time I argued there were four really good quarterbacks and two excellent defensive players in range. Even if you had to pick the fifth player instead of the third, you were in position to get one of the top talents in the 2023 class.

I’ve since adjusted that approach because a lot has emerged about Jalen Carter through various reports. I’ve also been able to dig around a bit and say, with confidence, I don’t expect Carter to be a consideration at #5.

So now we’re down to the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson. That’s still a great place to be. You’re going to get a really talented player at a premium position.

I’m not sure why a large section of the fanbase is so against the quarterback options. I suspect the media narrative has had a negative impact, plus there’s a strong loyalty to Geno Smith — even if his contract is perfectly setup for the Seahawks to move on as early as next year.

Twelve months ago sections of the media were saying Malik Willis might go second overall. Then we had Desmond Ridder being touted as a first round pick. There was more buzz for a group of backup-level players in 2022 than there is about a group who are potentially going to fill out the first four picks of this draft.

This is an excellent crop, way beyond what we saw a year ago. The same source who told me he thought all of the top 2022 quarterbacks were third rounders, told me early in the process this year that the top four QB’s will go in the top-10 — and that Hendon Hooker could easily find a home in round one too.

There’s a fear factor among Seahawks fans I want to push-back against. The view is that these quarterbacks would be a wasted pick compared to a defensive player who can contribute immediately, in a more impactful way.

I’d argue the Seahawks have created the ideal environment for a young signal caller to succeed. Sitting and learning for at least a year is a good thing. With the extreme physical talent of the quarterbacks at the top of this class — it’s possible a smooth transition to a new long-term starter could create a situation where the franchise is set-up for the next 10-15 years at the most important position in football.

No, the quarterbacks available are not flawless. They rarely are. Yet as I noted last week, people said incredibly unflattering things about Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Had the Seahawks selected either with a top-five pick, I suspect fans would’ve been howling in pain at the decision based on the perception of both players.

Mahomes benefitted from sitting for a year. Allen benefitted from patience afforded as he went through a two-year learning curve. People forget Allen was a meme for a couple of seasons before the light switched on. Now, the Bills are seen as annual contenders because of their quarterback.

Even Pete Carroll and John Schneider have seemingly gone out of their way to set the table for the possibility of a quarterback pick — talking about the rare opportunity afforded Seattle to select this early in a good QB draft.

Having the opportunity to draft a player and develop them for the future would be a good thing at this position. While there’s no certainty it’ll work out — the same is easily true of any defender you take in the top-five.

Equally, if the Seahawks don’t trade up, increasingly it looks like someone else will. That would mean Will Anderson potentially lasting to #5 — unless the Colts also trade down so someone else can land the top defender.

This feels like a cause for celebration, not anger or argument. Seattle can get an exciting quarterback or Will Anderson. Tremendous!

I think the Seahawks will be enamoured with Anderson and Anthony Richardson. We’re talking about an ideal scheme-fit defender with all of the high character, alpha-dog mentality, production and physicality Seattle craves. We’re also talking about the kind of physical talent at quarterback that gets Schneider and Carroll out of bed in the morning. Carroll runs a development program and with Richardson, he’d get to try and develop a player the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

I also think they will be fond of Will Levis. I know he seems to be persona non grata in mock drafts at the moment but I’m not sold on that. He’s a physical marvel, highly intelligent and he’s well versed in pro-schemes. In particular, you can watch 2021 tape and see him excelling in something akin to Seattle’s offense.

However, Richardson is just taking the league by storm. The buzz is legit. The upside is through the roof. He has a magical charisma to him — and it’s no wonder there’s a growing feeling someone will trade up to #3 to secure his services so that they can work to turn him into a star.

At #5, the Seahawks could sit tight and get either Richardson or Anderson. It’s also possible, however, neither will be there.

If they are the two players Seattle is focusing on, then I think they should try and trade up. The only reason not to is if they rate Levis highly enough (and I think Schneider might) to stick at #5.

Otherwise — the statement of, ‘we might never be here again’ needs to be taken seriously. That’s not just about having the chance to pick at #5. It’s about being within striking distance of moving up to get a player you really want.

You can eliminate any doubt or mystery by trading up to #3 or #4 with Arizona or Indianapolis. If the Cardinals are willing to deal with a division rival and be realistic over compensation, do it. If the Colts are comfortable taking Levis and are therefore happy to trade down to #5, do it.

If it costs you #37 to make that move, so be it. If it costs #20, so be it. If you have the conviction that Richardson is the next superstar QB or that Anderson can be the lead stud on your defense for the next decade — make the move.

Nobody looks back at the Mahomes trade and talks about the extra first rounder Kansas City gave up. Nobody talks about the two second round picks Buffalo used to get Allen.

The Seahawks have 10 picks in this draft — ample to address needs later on.

I also think we need to be realistic about where this team is. They aren’t a draft away from being a contender. It will probably take another off-season to reach that position.

So if this is year two of a process — continue the process. You have a top-five pick. If trading to #3 or #4 gets you a player you believe can be a star, make that move. The one thing this roster lacks currently is a true, elite-level star player.

It’ll be harder to find that player in future drafts when the team is back picking in the second half of round one.

I’ll promise you this — if the Seahawks trade #20 to select Anthony Richardson or Will Anderson at #3, I won’t complain if it doesn’t work out. I’ll applaud the move. The boldness. The ambition. The conviction.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Sometimes you have to take a risk. The key is to take the right kind of risk. Trading two first rounders for a box safety isn’t the right kind of risk. This, however, would be.

So unless they simply think Levis is as good as Richardson, or that Tyree Wilson is as good as Anderson, they should be thinking about the kind of bold trade-up that is suddenly being speculated by Vic Tafur and Tony Pauline.

The sooner you make that move, the more time you have to scale down your thought process to get this pick right. If you make the move to #3 in the coming days — you’ll have three weeks to determine whether it’s Richardson or Anderson you want (while keeping the door open on C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, just in case). You can forget about any other players you might be considering at #5.

‘Pay the iron price’ as someone declared in one of my recent live streams. Using the #20 or #37 pick to move up would be a hefty price. But with 10 total picks and five in the first three rounds — you have the stock to make a move up the board and still address several other needs.

It’ll be worth it if Richardson becomes the next superstar quarterback or Anderson the next game-wrecking defender.

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