Today I was invited onto the 5th year option podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. My bit starts 30 minutes in. You can check it out below:
Month: April 2023 (Page 4 of 5)
I’ll be jumping on with Robbie & Adam today at 4pm PT. Join in via the live chat on YouTube as we run through a variety of topics, two weeks before the draft.
I also wanted to touch on something briefly that’ll we discuss in the stream, see below the video embed for the notes…
There are a couple of things worth acknowledging that have appeared in the media this week. Firstly, Adam Schefter is being intriguingly open-minded about Houston not taking a quarterback at #2. The fact that he’s speaking in the way he is here is interesting. Lance Zierlein, who is connected in Houston, last week mocked Tyree Wilson to the Texans at #2. Now we’ve got Schefter bringing the possibility of a defensive pick at #2 to the table.
I’d say it’s time to start taking this very seriously. We already have been of course, having mocked Will Anderson to the Texans on March 9th.
Meanwhile, Michael Lombardi casually dropped out something I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere else. He claims, “everyone around the league knows (C.J.) Stroud has coachability and attitude problems“.
This hasn’t even been hinted at elsewhere. However, it would add a layer to the Houston chatter if it proved to be accurate. What if they’re not keen on Stroud for those reasons? Is there any issue for the Texans that Deshaun Watson’s agent, David Mulugheta, is also Stroud’s agent?
Zierlein had the Texans trading up from #12 to get Will Levis, a good scheme fit and a player who can start quickly, rather than take Stroud at #2.
I don’t think they’ll be able to do this unless they trade up to the #3 pick, which I think is unlikely. Chris Mortensen last week stated Levis won’t get out of the top-five and he seems like a shoe-in for the Colts at #4.
But what does it mean for Stroud?
If both he and Richardson are available at #3, I’d suggest it increases the chances of a trade down dramatically. It also raises the possibility that he might slip through the cracks to #5, especially if the Colts are determined to take Levis.
If you missed my appearance on VSiN’s Primetime show yesterday, don’t forget to check it out here. The more views the better…
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On Tuesday I was invited on to VSiN Primetime with Tim Murray & Shaun King to discuss the Seahawks and the draft. Check it out below:
Is Tyree Wilson going to go earlier than many think?
I wanted to offer some thoughts following the breaking news that Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah has been dealt to the Falcons for a fifth round pick. I think it could have some fairly significant ramifications for the draft.
— This creates a hole at cornerback for the Lions and increases the chances they’ll take the best one in the draft at #6. It might be time to pencil in Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon to Detroit.
— I’d previously expected the Lions to take the best pass rusher available at #6. Dan Campbell is a trenches guy. Adding even more to their defensive front felt like a good fit. I doubt he’s the type of coach who has much interest in working with Jalen Carter. Campbell likes passionate, football die-hards. He once said he wants “kneecap-eaters” on his team. Carter is, well, the opposite of that. However, I could well imagine him having interest in Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson. Is this move, potentially setting the team up to go cornerback at #6, indicative of the Lions expecting both Anderson and Wilson to be off the board?
— The Falcons had a need at cornerback. Okudah has had a massively underwhelming career so far and this doesn’t definitively solve that problem. However, it seems they’re willing to give him a year in a new environment to see how things work out. Thus, they aren’t very likely to spend a top-10 pick on a corner.
— What will Atlanta do? I’ve thought for a couple of weeks they might be the most likely to trade up to #3. Their support of Desmond Ridder at quarterback has amounted to basically saying, ‘he’s our starter this year’ with no definitive long-term commitment. Anthony Richardson would be an ideal fit for their offensive system. Arthur Blank, the owner, isn’t a conservative type content to settle. It wouldn’t be a surprise if solving this need today is a precursor to the Falcons moving up.
I listened to Lance Zierlein’s appearance on Brock & Salk this week. He said he’d spoken to three teams who rated Tyree Wilson higher than Will Anderson.
We’ll see how this plays out. I remain sceptical about Wilson. The frame is certainly intriguing and coaches, undoubtedly, will feel like they can develop his game. At the moment he’s a good bull-rusher who prefers to barge his way into the backfield. There’s no speed rush in his arsenal though. I’d struggle to justify taking a player in the top-five who can’t scream off the edge. There are also too many ineffective, passive reps. Not to mention he has an injury that has lingered for some time and he’s an older player overpowering younger linemen in a poor conference.
The argument, I suppose, is that Aldon Smith’s college tape didn’t leave you feeling like you were watching one of the best pass-rushers in his generation.
Zierlein is plugged into Houston and got both of their first round picks right a year ago. Could they seriously take Wilson at #2 as he predicted last week? I think any team, including Seattle, sitting within range should be ready to move up if C.J. Stroud gets out of the top-two.
If the draft goes Bryce Young, Wilson and Anderson to kick things off, that’ll create quite a twist at the top of round one.
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Will McDonald could be an ideal pass-rusher for Seattle
I promised a second go at producing a draft class for the Seahawks that would earn an A+ grade. You can see the breakdown of my first go at this by clicking here. Here’s the list of names in full:
Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Jaquelin Roy (NT, LSU)
Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
Tyler Lacy (DE, Oklahoma State)
Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)
In this second attempt, I promised to draft a quarterback at #5. If one wasn’t available (as was the case in my previous attempt), I’d restart the simulation.
I used the Pro Football Network simulator for this article.
The top four picks were:
#1 Carolina — Bryce Young
#2 Houston — C.J. Stroud
#3 Arizona — Will Anderson
#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis
Tampa Bay offered a trade deal to come up from #19 but I rejected it.
Let me know what you think about this haul in the comments section. I’d give it an A+. Would you?
#5 — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think there’s a very good chance the top four will play out as it did in this simulation, unless of course someone trades into the #3 spot. Adam Schefter reported today that six teams have inquired about the pick. That would leave the Seahawks with a decision. They can either invest in the long-term future at quarterback with a player so physically gifted he’s practically peerless in terms of upside. Or they can take the next available defender with Will Anderson off the board. For me, this would be a no-brainer. Draft Richardson, sit him for a year and let him learn the offense and what it takes to be a pro. He has the entire physical package to be a MVP candidate one day. I think it’s worth taking a shot to see if he can deliver on his potential. The upside of it working out is a decade of success, maybe more. If it fails, wasn’t it worth taking the chance anyway? How can you not be excited by the thought of Richardson throwing to D.K. Metcalf with Ken Walker in the backfield?
#20 — trade down
The Saints offered pick #71 to move up from #29. With Michael Mayer on the board I was tempted to stick and pick but getting a high third rounder to move down nine spots felt like a generous deal. New Orleans selected Quentin Johnston at #20.
#29 — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Mayer was eventually taken at #27, which was frustrating. I would’ve picked him at #29. Having taken a quarterback at #5, this felt like a good opportunity to try and add impact to the D-line. I understand and appreciate the concerns around Kancey’s length. With 30.5 inch arms, that’s worrying. There’s short arms and then there’s short arms. However, watching him on tape is quite an experience. You go in promising yourself you won’t compare him to Aaron Donald. Then you watch Pittsburgh and you feel like you’re watching Aaron Donald. His pass-rushing skill, quickness, twitchy ability to avoid blocks, exquisite hand-use, raw speed and agility is just so reminiscent of Donald. I appreciate you can’t make a ton of exceptions but in the case of Kancey, I’m prepared to take a chance on the length not being an issue. Nobody will ever copy what Donald has achieved in the NFL. He’s a legendary player. Yet Kancey’s testing profile and playing style is so similar, it feels like a worthy gamble to see if you can even get 65% of what Donald has been. Seattle hasn’t had an impact pass-rusher in the trenches in a long time. Kancey can be that man.
#37 — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
As soon as I saw McDonald was still on the board, I took him immediately. The thought of adding Kancey and McDonald to the pass-rush is mouth-watering and shows you don’t have to take a defender at #5 to upgrade the defense. He’s perfectly suited to Seattle — with 35-inch arms, exceptional balance and bend around the arc (the best I can recall), heavy hands despite his lack of great size and counter moves and savvy to keep blockers guessing. At the Senior Bowl, he had Darnell Wright on toast. Wright is the best tackle in the draft. He shut down Will Anderson when Tennessee played Alabama. McDonald beat him in back-to-back reps in the 1v1’s easily, then did it again in a scrimmage session. There’s every chance he can be Seattle’s answer to Brian Burns. You can super-charge your pass-rush by adding Kancey, McDonald and Dre’Mont Jones this off-season. This would be an immensely exciting start to the draft. One other thing to note, new pass-rush specialist BT Jordan spent time training McDonald before being appointed by the Seahawks.
#52 — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Our own Curtis Allen requested I don’t repeat picks in this projection but I’d already completed the sim. I also think this pick, in this range, is an easy way to secure an A+ grade. I rate Mingo as the second best receiver in the draft. He has a good frame (6-2, 220lbs) with enormous 10.5 inch hands and he runs in the 4.4’s. He’s a perfect ‘big slot’. The Seahawks experimented with a bigger slot receiver last year with Laquon Treadwell. What does he do well? His routes are extremely precise and he’s nearly always where he needs to be on time. Mingo has soft hands and is adept competing for the ball in the air or tracking it over his shoulder. He has enough speed to get downfield and make the big explosive play, plus the size to box-out and win with physicality. He can also make the spectacular happen — such as a stunning one-handed grab downfield last season or the best ‘Moss’ we saw in 2022. As a blocker, he has no peer in this receiver class. If you want your receivers to block — this is your guy. He loves to get after it. I’ve been promoting Mingo for a long time and believe he’s a top-50 player who could go a lot earlier than people think and in this range, he’d be a home-run pick.
#71 — trade up
Part of the reason I traded down to get this pick in the first place is to create some flexibility to trade up later on. I haven’t addressed the center position yet and I want to make an investment there for the long term. Therefore, I call the Bears. They have the #64 pick. I offer a fourth rounder (#123) to move up seven spots. It’s expensive, granted. But I’m worried about Arizona getting my target at #66. They haven’t addressed center yet and I want to jump them.
#64 — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Another repeat pick from the last mock but there are really two key players at center who fit Seattle’s physical profile — John Michael Schmitz and Wypler. I’m convinced one of the two will be a Seahawk. Wypler has the traits for the blocking scheme. He’s athletic and agile — running a brilliant 4.53 short shuttle. He has a wrestling background which they like. He had a tremendous game against Georgia in the college football playoffs. He said at the combine he’d already started studying the Rams blocking scheme because it fit him so perfectly — so he’s already well versed in Seattle’s system. This pick would give the Seahawks a chance to have a settled center position for the first time in years.
#83 — trade down
Trading up was expensive so I wanted to try and get a pick back. Jacksonville offered a deal to move up from #88. It involved a fifth rounder next year. I wanted a pick in 2023, so I countered for a fifth this year. That offer was rejected. I went back and offered to swap my seventh round pick (#237) for their fifth rounder (#185). That was accepted.
#88 — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
With ideal size for the Seahawks (5-10, 217lbs) and an explosive testing profile (41-inch vertical, 10-8 broad) — he’s what they look for at the position. He also has the speed to be a home-run threat and can plant and burst to accelerate through gaps to deliver chunk-yardage. He’d create a terrific 1-2 punch with Ken Walker, with Deejay Dallas taking on third down duties. This would be a home-run pick, providing great value and early impact potential. With Mingo, Wypler and Abanikanda — the offense would be more or less complete for 2023. You’d have an extremely athletic, exciting group. Then you throw Anthony Richardson into the mix in 2024 or 2025. What a thought.
#151 Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
My final repeat pick — but I just like him so much for Seattle. He’s an excellent cornerback prospect with fantastic size (6-3, 206lbs, 32.5 inch arms) and he runs well (4.47 forty). He’s quite scheme specific but screams ‘Seahawks’. He wants to be physical and scrappy in coverage. On any dump-offs and screens he does a great job getting off blocks to hammer ball carriers. He reads plays better than most other cornerbacks in this class — often making the right decision to gamble to undercut a route or passing off the correct receiver. There’s so much potential here and if he’s available in this range, he could compete very quickly to play outside across from Tariq Woolen.
#154 Jay Ward (S/CB, LSU)
Ward would be a tremendous pick in this range. He’s an A+ alpha and highly regarded by his team mates. He has positional versatility having played safety and nickel. He actually has the frame and length to be tried at outside corner by the Seahawks. He could be a special teams demon as a rookie and then settle into a permanent role at safety, nickel or cornerback from 2024. He loves to hit, he’s good against the run, he has 32.5 inch arms. There’s a ton to work with here.
#185 Anthony Bradford (G, LSU)
The combine really brought Bradford and Alabama guard Emil Ekiyor to my attention. I thought they both looked excellent. I then went and reviewed their tape and I think both players are being slept on. I think it’s very unlikely Bradford will last to this range and he’ll likely go in the fourth round area. However — I think there are some really good guards and tackle-to-guard converts set to be available on day three. Bradford is 6-4 and 332lbs with 33.5 inch arms. He’s an explosive tester, scoring a 3.17 in TEF and a superb 105.2 in weighted TEF. If they want to stick with bigger, more explosive guards (and they might do, given Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes are set to start this year) then Braford fits that profile perfectly. He can be a quality backup in year one and potentially take over as a starter in year two, with both Lewis and Haynes only contracted until the end of 2023.
#198 Keondre Coburn (NT, Texas)
With the way John Schneider spoke about the nose tackle position last week, it made me think they might be prepared to wait on this position and just get someone who has shown they can handle early downs and anchor. Coburn is big (6-2, 332lbs) but has short arms (31.5 inches). That could be off-putting for Seattle but they have shown a willingness to come off ideal traits in the late rounds. Coburn is strictly an early-down nose but he does the job well and he can two-gap. He’s basically an ideal option for Seattle apart from the arm length. If he’s available in round six, it might be a very easy decision to take a chance on him filling the void left by Al Woods.
The class in full
Anthony Richardson
Calijah Kancey
Will McDonald
Jonathan Mingo
Luke Wypler
Israel Abanikanda
Corey Trice
Jay Ward
Anthony Bradford
Keondre Coburn
Final thoughts
I think there’s a lot to like here. You get a long-term investment at quarterback and take a player with limitless potential for the future at the most important position in the sport. Meanwhile, you’re still able to add two impact defenders to your front seven — creating a scary looking group when you combine Calijah Kancey and Will McDonald with Dre’Mont Jones, Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe and Jarran Reed. There’s youth and talent here to be good for a long time and finally fix Seattle’s pass rush.
You also fill needs at center, WR3 and RB2. You now have excellent club control on those three positions, plus LT1, RT1 and RB1 — all drafted last year.
On day three you add two exciting, physical, athletic defensive backs to increase competition there, before drafting a guard who can be a quality backup in 2023 and a possible starter in 2024. You finish things off with a nose tackle who has been durable and effective in a two-gap system.
Again it’s disappointing to miss out completely on a talented tight end class and it’s tricky to add a young linebacker — although that’s less of a desperate 2023 need with Bobby Wagner and Devin Bush both signed.
I challenge anyone to see this as a disappointing draft, unless you’re stubbornly opposed to Anthony Richardson or the concept of drafting a quarterback early. This draft highlights how you can have the best of both worlds. This can be an impact class who help drive you on in 2023. It can also be a draft that produces a potential long-term franchise quarterback.
It’s different to the previous draft in the positions it ticks off early and the overall strategy. I think both work and it shows a path to success whether you take Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson with the fifth pick. It’s one of the reasons why I’ve focused on those two players and feel very comfortable with either.
Finally today, I wanted to react to Peter King’s latest article which includes the following line:
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter is due to visit two teams in the top seven, Seattle (five) and Las Vegas (seven), in the coming days. How can Vegas GM Dave Ziegler and Seattle GM John Schneider finish their evaluation of Carter before sitting down with him at length? They can’t. So if you hear, “Carter’s out in Seattle,” for instance, it’s just not feasible.
Adam Schefter has since added that Carter will visit Seattle tomorrow.
Firstly, this is absolutely the right thing to do. This is what the official-30 visits are for. Schneider made that point on 710 Seattle Sports. They typically use these meetings to complete evaluations on players they’re not sure about, including where there are character questions. It’s why certain players have a lot of visits and others, such as Josh Downs (one of the cleanest players in the draft), have zero.
Carter’s agent recently announced he would only visit with teams picking in the top-10. The Seahawks had to take advantage of that. It’s an opportunity to hear his side of the story, get to know him and spend some time with him in the facility.
That said, it doesn’t really change anything. A case in point. Let’s say the Seahawks have no interest in drafting Carter in the first round. What if he then falls to the second round due to his character concerns? You’d be kicking yourself for not completing the evaluation.
What if he’s available down the road? Via trade or as a free agent? Don’t you want the information to make an informed decision?
While I appreciate King noting that no boards are complete, it’s also worth pointing out that the Athletic reported on March 30th that Carter was off the Raiders’ board. He’s also having an official visit to Las Vegas, per King’s report. Josh McDaniels refuted the report but that information was still put out there (and there’s every reason for a coach, when quizzed about it, to deny it).
I’d guess the Seahawks have a pretty good idea about whether they’re prepared to draft Carter before this meeting. I’d argue it’s equally not feasible to think things hinge on tomorrow’s get-together. Yet having the luxury of being one of only 10 teams to actually host him for a visit, it’s a completely worthwhile exercise.
There was one other line in King’s article that I think was even more interesting:
I think Jalen Carter could be drafted fifth or 25 and I wouldn’t be surprised.
And that, right there, sums it up. There wouldn’t be a chance of him lasting that long unless the concerns were legit.
I stand by everything I’ve written about the likelihood of Seattle drafting Carter. If I’m wrong, I’ll front up and own it. I still think the most convincing point anyone has made on this subject so far is — if Kayvon Thibodeaux wasn’t a first round consideration a year ago, as reported by Dave Wyman, why would Carter be considered this year?
One thing I think we can all agree on — April 27th can’t get here soon enough, so we can finally talk about what did happen, rather than what might happen.
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Yesterday I used the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator to try and create an A+ draft for the Seahawks. The focus was on talent instead of need. I was happy with the outcome but some disagreed with a couple of picks.
I had Seattle taking Will Anderson at #5. I think Anderson would be a really good pick. You’re not getting a Bosa brother or Myles Garrett but I think his impact can be immediate and long lasting both on the field and in the locker room.
However, there is something I do think warrants noting. No quarterback.
The fanbase is split between those for and against selecting a quarterback early. I sense the split isn’t so much based on the actual players available. A case in point, nobody really spends much time discussing the cons of the defensive players touted to go early, yet the QB’s are often decried for their flaws.
Instead I think the thought process is based around a desire to try and win now versus a more long term approach. Improve the defense for 2023 and maybe the team can succeed? Spending the fifth pick on someone who wouldn’t play this year constitutes a waste in the eyes of many.
Others believe the Seahawks will never truly be competitive unless they strike gold at quarterback. Thus, investing in one of the top four available this year is necessary. The re-signing of Geno Smith and Drew Lock means that player can have a year to learn without any pressure to start. The pick might not pay dividends in 2023 but it could set the franchise up for the next decade and longer if managed properly.
Personally, I think the Seahawks should be thinking long term whatever they do. As time has passed it’s become largely forgotten that Geno had a fairly inglorious second half of the season. He certainly wasn’t helped by injuries on offense and a porous defense. However, habits that have hampered his progress in the past, returned after his hot start. The high number of turnover worthy plays for example — and the plays that did actually lead to turnovers.
A friendly schedule aided the Seahawks. It shouldn’t totally undermine the achievement of making the playoffs but it also needs to be acknowledged. Seattle was competitive against the 49ers for a half in the wildcard round before being blown away, brutally, by their division rivals. It was their third comprehensive defeat to the Niners.
I don’t think anyone should be fooled into thinking the Seahawks are close. They aren’t. And they likely won’t be that much closer with a haul of rookies coming onto the team and the addition of one significant, key free agent in Dre’Mont Jones. They can certainly improve and I think we should all set that low bar now. Can they look better and trend upwards, even if results-wise they stall or even regress?
I enjoyed watching Geno in 2022. Even in the playoff game I thought he showed well. He was certainly the least of Seattle’s worries during their uglier defeats, when the defense was a shambles.
However, I think people claiming the Seahawks have definitively found their long term quarterback are dabbling in wishful thinking. Smith has a ways to go yet.
Thus, I’m not convinced by two things. Firstly, Seattle’s ability to craft the kind of elite defense and running game combo that would allow Smith to point guard this franchise to glory. Secondly, Smith’s ability to cover for roster flaws in the way Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert can.
On the first point, I don’t think it’s often noted just how difficult it is to build a great defense. Especially in the modern day offensive-focussed NFL. The only one that really exists currently is San Francisco’s. They ranked first in defensive DVOA last year. The Cowboys, Patriots, Bills and Jets followed. I’m not sure the rest of the top-five compare to the Niners. Perhaps you could make a case for the Eagles, ranked sixth in DVOA, but they were slightly exposed in the Super Bowl.
A quick throat clearing — you’ll notice that none of those teams had a Vic Fangio inspired defensive system in 2022.
San Francisco started building their defense in 2014. That’s when they spent a first rounder on Jimmie Ward. A year later, their first two picks were Arik Armstead and Jaquiski Tartt. In 2016 they used their top pick on DeForest Buckner. The following year they used two more first round picks on defense — two busts in Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (having famously, according to reports, not even scouted Patrick Mahomes fully because they were so determined not to draft a QB that year while waiting for Kirk Cousins to reach free agency — there might be a lesson there). They selected Fred Warner in 2018 and Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw in 2019. Then, having traded Buckner to the Colts, they immediately replaced him with Javon Kinlaw in 2020.
That’s seven first round picks between 2014-2020. If the Seahawks plan to try and mimic the 49ers by building a fantastic defense while plugging-in quarterbacks at will, shouldn’t we acknowledge that this could take the best part of a decade?
People often cite the shortening years left in Carroll’s career. Does he have another five years to take shots in the draft to accumulate the sheer volume of players needed to emulate the Niners?
If they invest so much stock in the defense, are the staff capable of scheming the players to success? Seattle’s defense has started every season poorly for years. They’ve spent season after season trying to fix things on the run. They’ve given away yards galore, through the air and more recently on the ground. They’re running a scheme that a number of teams are trying and equally struggling to execute.
It’s also worth pointing out that even the Niners, who many hope to emulate, still felt they needed to invest three first round picks in a super-athletic, high-upside quarterback.
On the second point, regarding Geno Smith — if the defense doesn’t reach the highest level, is he capable of compensating with his play? In a game against the Niners, or a playoff game, can he be the difference if the defense continues to struggle?
The top quarterbacks step up to the plate and drag their teams to victory in big games when other areas of the team are struggling. Can Geno do that? Is there a danger that the complementary football won’t be good enough to allow a non-elite QB to make you a contender, while the quarterback won’t be good enough to make up for holes on the roster?
The team and player deserve credit for the deal signed to keep Smith in Seattle. It keeps everything on the table for the Seahawks and if Geno succeeds, he’ll be richly rewarded through the incentives attached to the deal.
It’s also kind of being glossed over that many people were talking about franchise tags not so long ago. People were touting mega contracts worth between $30-40m and shouting ‘pay the man’ on Twitter. What actually happened? Smith’s people were able to gauge the market at the combine and immediately after, signed a contract to stay in Seattle that is the definition of ‘team friendly’.
He surely didn’t do that through generosity. He likely signed that deal because the heavily incentivised, non-committal deal was the best one on the table. Or at least, relatively close to the best one on the table. Was any other team even linked with interest in Geno Smith? I can’t recall his name being touted for anyone else. The Buccs maybe? That never seemed to go anywhere though.
Why is that? It appears the league is sceptical that he is in fact the real deal. They see a journeyman career, a fantastic first half of the 2022 season, then a slightly challenging second half.
Here’s what I wrote in an article on January 23rd, discussing Smith’s future:
Hugh Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.
Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.
That’s staggering.
If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.
I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.
Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.
Perhaps the Seahawks are mere beneficiaries of league scepticism, allowing them to land the bargain of the year? Or maybe they also retain some scepticism and want the ability to escape his contract in 2024, whether they draft a quarterback later this month or not?
Either way, I don’t think they’d be wrong to be sceptical. I’m sceptical. I hope Smith can be even better, confirming once and for all he’s a late-career success story rather than a one-season wonder. It’s possible though he will just be a flash in the pan. It’s hardly out of the question that in 12 months time the Seahawks will again have no contracted quarterback on the roster, no obvious future at the position, no top-five pick to address the matter properly and it could undermine everything else.
I can’t accept that a quarterback drafted at #5 would be a wasted pick. Especially if Will Anderson is already off the board. The idea that Tyree Wilson is the player to kick things up a notch, with his 75.1 PFF grade at Texas Tech (good enough for 184th among college pass rushers last year), seems ambitious.
Let’s say they draft Anthony Richardson at #5 instead. Now you have Geno Smith, busting a gut to keep his starting job. If he succeeds, you have two options next year. You can stick with Smith for another season. You can see what the trade market is for his services. You could even trade Richardson if needed, if Smith plays well enough to confirm once and for all he’s the bona fide future of Seahawks football.
Sure, you’re not getting an immediate return from your top pick in 2023. That’s where your other nine picks come in handy.
Let’s also remember — just because you take a defender at #5 doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to have an impact this year.
Travon Walker, the #1 pick a year ago, had 3.5 sacks as a rookie. If he was in this draft, Seahawks fans would be salivating at his athletic potential and calling for him to be picked at #5. A year on from being selected, people are already wondering if the Jaguars made a mistake. His PFF grade in his final year at Georgia (69.9) was worse than Tyree Wilson’s but it’s the same ballpark.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, the fifth pick last year and a player who was being touted for greatness from his first starting season at Oregon, had four sacks as a rookie.
The other top defender taken a year ago, Aidan Hutchinson, had a fantastic rookie season. But it goes to show that for all the talk of a quarterback pick for the Seahawks having no impact — there’s no guarantee a Tyree Wilson type would fly in and suddenly hit the ground running. He might be no more than a rotational cog, needing to work out the pro-game and develop his skills.
Look at Boye Mafe. We shouldn’t forget he cost the Seahawks the #40 pick. Nobody even really talks about him. We’re all sat here talking about drafting an edge rusher to pair with Uchenna Nwosu, just so Mafe and another second rounder, Darrell Taylor, can settle into rotational roles. Would it be that surprising if Tyree Wilson similarly struggles to have an early impact for a team that hasn’t done a great job delivering impact from its high picks at edge rusher?
If they take Wilson at #5 and he experiences growing pains like Walker — and Smith struggles at quarterback this year — what will people be saying in 12 months time? With a bleak quarterback outlook and a top-five defender who failed to sizzle in year one, I suspect there’d be vocal concern.
By taking Richardson you secure against what I think can be called a worst case scenario. If Smith struggles, you have an immediate and exciting alternative who was able to sit and learn for a year. The 2024 season would be hotly anticipated as we all wait to see if Richardson can be as good as his physical talent suggests.
You wouldn’t have totally neglected the defense in the 2023 draft either, thanks to the picks at #20, #37 and #52 providing ample opportunity to improve the unit. You could realistically go into next year with some optimism.
You also create options for the future. As mentioned, you could shop Smith or even Richardson if Geno played brilliantly in 2023. If Smith plays so well that in a year you regret taking a quarterback early, I’m not sure that’s exactly a titanic problem to have. Oh no! You’ve been overly prepared at… the most important position in football. I’d say that’s certainly less of a headache than a Tyree Wilson ending up like Travon Walker, which I don’t think is unrealistic, while you have no future at QB if Smith fails to play at a great level.
I also appreciate there are various strands you could discuss here. If Smith excels and a player like Wilson plays more like Hutchinson than Walker, all will be well with the world.
I fear, though, that the Seahawks are about to embark on a mission to return to contention that is very difficult to execute. Or at least that people are touting such a plan, without offering the balance of considering why it might fail and why other plans also carry merit. The feeling being, they can essentially plug-in quarterbacks at will, create a brilliant defense and running game and everything will click.
If that’s their aim, I’d argue it’s easier to create a fantastic supporting cast surrounding a point guard QB if the quarterback is on a rookie contract. Geno’s contract is generous for 2023 but it’s worth, at its cheapest, $31.2m in 2024. They could easily, if they’re not careful, end up with an expensive quarterback and an inadequate defense to try and play the brand of football they crave. That would just lead to an average team with very little in the way of excitement for the future. Basically, they’d be another Minnesota Vikings. At best.
I’m not confident in Seattle’s ability to build a great defense when they end up getting themselves into situations like spending $40m on the safety position and struggling to fill out their defensive line with what little is left. After years of rough starts, failing to tackle properly, struggling to create consistent pressure, performing badly against the run and being too easy to play against — I need to see major, consistent improvement to believe it.
I don’t think drafting a quarterback at #5 is the only answer. As I keep saying, I think Will Anderson would be a good pick. He’ll only be available, too, if the quarterbacks go #1-4 in the draft — making them unavailable anyway. That’s besides the point though. Anderson’s tenacity, power, alpha mentality and college production hint at a player who can be very good at the next level. I’m not sure he’ll be able to copy DeMarcus Ware’s career but the comparison passes the eye test.
If Anderson is gone though, to me it makes little sense to pivot to Tyree Wilson — a 23-year-old who failed to make a mark at Texas A&M, received middling PFF grades for his performance in the Big-12, hasn’t shown an ability to provide a speed-rush and has a large number of snaps where it feels like he’s going through the motions.
The size and length are very intriguing and he has splash plays on tape. I’m sure coaches will look at his frame and believe they can work with what he has physically and turn him into a more impactful, consistent player. I don’t want to keep going back to this point but that’s exactly what the Jaguars thought about Travon Walker. The difference is, we knew what Walker’s upside was due to his outstanding combine performance. We have no testing numbers for Wilson because he’s still recovering from a foot injury.
Wilson is a classic case of a good highlights video but the game tape is far less exciting. That won’t dictate his success or failure at the next level but it tempers any excitement you might have if/when his name is called.
John Schneider mentioned last week the Seahawks had travelled to give someone a private workout. It was almost certainly Wilson. Schneider admitted previously they were due to attend the Texas Tech pro-day before heading to Gainesville to watch Anthony Richardson. They didn’t go to Texas Tech after it was announced Wilson couldn’t work out. It was also revealed that Wilson has been meeting with most of the top-10 teams in the last week.
It’d be an underwhelming pick. I fear the Seahawks will settle for it, though, if Anderson is off the board. The reports and mocks projecting Wilson at #2 or #3 and having him ranked ahead of Anderson in some cases worries me a bit. I think it’s overthinking things — just as the Jaguars did a year ago selecting Walker over Hutchinson. But it suggests there’s a lot of interest among decision makers and that if Wilson’s there at #5, they’ll trot him out with the usual chatter of friends in the league claiming it’s a great pick.
There’s nothing philosophical about my stance. I’ve consistently said I’m very comfortable going D-line or quarterback. I like Anderson. I was mocking Jalen Carter to Seattle before learning more about the adventure that has been his pre-draft process (not to mention the long list of reported issues at Georgia and a questionable love for the game).
I thought Joey Bosa was comfortably the best player in the 2016 draft. I thought Myles Garrett was the unquestionable no-brainer top pick in 2017. I thought Nick Bosa was clearly the elite player in his class in 2019. If a player of that ilk was available this year, I’d be banging the drum. Even without that level of player, I’m still making the case for Anderson.
I just think this is such a rare opportunity for Seattle that dismissing quarterback would be a mistake by the fans and more importantly the team. I’d happily take on whatever ‘risk’ it’d be to draft someone like Richardson. If he doesn’t become the next Josh Allen, I think it’s worth the shot to see if he can be. That would do more for Seattle’s Super Bowl prospects than anything else over the next 3-5 years. If they take that chance and it doesn’t come off, I wouldn’t criticise the team. How could you? Your favourite team took a chance on developing the rarest of rare athletes and it didn’t pan out. Oh well, what’s next?
As they’ve been quick to point out — when are they going to be in a position like this again? They don’t have another franchise quarterback to trade for a haul of picks. They don’t have a collapsing AFC West team to root against every week, knowing with every loss it increases the draft position of a gifted first round pick.
After this year, the Seahawks will be left to their own devices — with limited cap space, limited trade stock and likely a pick outside of the top-10. It’ll be harder to draft a top quarterback. It kind of feels like now or never, short of one day being prepared to trade a massive sum to move up like the Panthers and Niners recently.
For what it’s worth I think the following probably sums up Seattle’s process this draft season:
1. When the season ended, having watched San Francisco essentially beat the Seahawks at their own game with defense and running game, the intention was to try and close the gap between the two teams by investing a top-five pick on a defensive star. They knew they had to make changes to the defensive line.
2. I think John Schneider and Pete Carroll probably shared that view, with Schneider also intrigued by the quarterback class. When he executed the Russell Wilson trade he was surely thinking ahead about the QB’s coming up in the draft. I seriously doubt they banked on Geno Smith being the future. Smith changed the situation somewhat but Schneider will have spent a lot of time on the quarterbacks and I think the top four, plus potentially Hendon Hooker, are suitably Schneider-esque to imagine he’d have a strong interest in them. Carroll will have his own thoughts on the group and might like some and not others.
3. The situation over the defensive players shifted thanks to Jalen Carter. There were enough concerns before his legal trouble and embarrassing pro-day. The Seahawks, I suspect, already had enough info to potentially take him out of consideration. However, even if they weren’t likely to draft him, someone else might before they pick at #5. I think that’s almost certainly not going to happen now, making it harder for Anderson to fall through the cracks unless a team trades into the #3 spot.
4. I think Anthony Richardson has caught Seattle’s attention. I think he’s done that with a few teams, which is why he has official-30 visits booked in with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens. Carroll seems to have taken a shine to him. The player himself spoke glowingly about his meeting with the Seahawks at the combine. We’ve since had reports of Schneider having extensive conversations with Richardson’s agent, while Carroll had an audience with Billy Napier. The personality, charisma, unlimited physical talent and the massive upside — I think — is intriguing Seattle more than they possibly expected. Like I say, I don’t think they’re the only team experiencing this.
5. For a while I’ve thought this was going to come down to ‘who lasts to #5?’. Will it be Anderson or Richardson? I’ve seen people talking recently about Tyree Wilson, noting, fairly, that bigger players of that size (such as Aldon Smith) have played in a 3-4 at OLB. I must admit, it made me pause. They might just talk themselves into this. Then when I watch the tape, I’m reminded of my concerns. If they draft him, obviously I hope he succeeds at an extreme level. I do fear, though, that they might be so defensively focused that they take Wilson — enamoured by his size — and simply can’t elevate him to the level they hope. After all, Aldon Smith had Vic Fangio coaching him. The Seahawks might be influenced by Fangio’s scheme but they’ve shown minimal ability to execute it so far. Maybe it’s recency bias on my behalf but I have a horrible thought of Wilson being the 2023 version of Mafe — an older rookie losing reps to someone else, with Carroll fending off weekly questions about why he isn’t more involved.
I suppose this is all just a long-winded way to say I think it’s still important for the Seahawks to be open-minded about drafting a quarterback. Plus, I’m sceptical about Wilson but I’m admitting I should include him in any discussion about the #5 pick moving forward.
After all, as we’ve already said a numerous times in the last few weeks, they attended the Ohio State, Alabama, Kentucky and Florida pro-days. They intended to attend the Texas Tech pro-day too, during that little road-trip.
The players involved in those pro-days:
C.J. Stroud
Bryce Young
Will Anderson
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson
Tyree Wilson
Seattle’s pick is going to come from that group, I’m very confident about that. I think the road trip was deliberate. Rather than any convoluted smokescreen, I suspect the Seahawks were simply doing manageable homework on a very important pick and getting every scrap of information they can. Unlike when you’re picking in the 20’s, you can narrow your focus to five pro-days because only four players will leave the board before you pick. You can’t attend 35 pro-days to cover all the possibilities with the 25th pick.
With the expectation the first two picks are Stroud and Young, and Levis being drafted by the Colts, Anderson or Richardson is realistic and is my preference for the Seahawks. Wilson could also be an option but an underwhelming one, at least for me.
Tomorrow I’m going to attempt to create another A+ draft — with a quarterback taken at #5.
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A possible backfield partner for Ken Walker?
I went on to the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator (still the best on the internet — and free, unlike others) this weekend with the intention of trying to execute an A+ draft for the Seahawks.
The rules were simple. Look for value but be realistic. If the simulator has a player graded unrealistically, I wasn’t going to select them.
One such example is Alabama’s Byron Young. I think he’s a top-65 player. He’s never going to be a game-wrecker but you’ll get at least four years of cost-effective, valuable defensive line play from him — plus leadership, physicality and a ton of snaps. I think he’s a superior prospect to Phidarian Mathis, the 47th pick last year.
Even if I rate Young higher than the consensus, the simulator has him as the 241st best player in the draft. That means he’s always available in rounds six or seven. I think he’ll be a second or third round pick. For once I didn’t mock him to Seattle (even though he’s ideally suited to their scheme) and thought it’d be unrealistic to take him in the later rounds.
So here’s what I did come up with for the Seahawks. I would give this an A+ grade. What do you think? Let me know in the comments…
#5 — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
The four quarterbacks were gone and it left Anderson available for the fifth pick. I think the Seahawks, or at least John Schneider, are more intrigued with this quarterback class than some people think. Yet I also think they’ll be delighted if Anderson is available at #5. He perfectly fits the character preference they’re looking for. He’s an A+ alpha and the ultimate pro. His effort and intensity, week-to-week, is flawless. When I spoke to a source in the league recently, he gushed over Anderson’s ability to communicate with team mates and say the right things to the media. I was told he has a terrific family background and will have received virtually perfect character grades. The same source said Anderson wasn’t ‘special’ but was a ‘damn good football player’. He’s a perfect scheme fit for Seattle and will provide immediate impact against the run, he’ll disrupt and challenge opponents in the passing game and he’d give the Seahawks a vocal, heart-and-soul leader for the long term on defense.
#20 — trade down
It feels almost inevitable that Seattle will drop down a few spots. It could be that they drop into the mid-20’s and select the center John Michael Schmitz — who is another ideal fit in terms of character and scheme. Usually on the simulator I get a nice offer from a team in the 20’s that includes a third round pick. Not in this instance. Dallas offered a fourth round pick (#129) to drop to #26. I took it. Michael Mayer and Bijan Robinson were both gone, which is unusual for the simulator, so I didn’t stick and pick. I could’ve taken Josh Downs or Schmitz but opted to get another pick to move down — even if the value wasn’t earth-shattering.
#26 — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
I wasn’t planning on drafting a safety this early. I think the Seahawks are almost certain to take one at some stage. The parting with Ryan Neal feels like a situation where they can save a chunk of money and find a cheaper replacement on a four-year deal. However, when I got to this pick I just fancied Branch. His testing numbers were surprisingly average. Yet on tape, he played like a Rolls Royce. He was impactful and instinctive. Most importantly, he can play the role of deathbacker/nickel DB perfectly. If the Seahawks plan to run a lot of three-safety looks as we’re told, Branch’s versatility will be ideal. It’s not easy to play the ‘star’ position in Nick Saban’s defense (essentially slot corner) but he did it better than most, flashing excellent football IQ and read/react. I think he can play free safety too. Furthermore, he’s also a willing hitter who plays with grit and intensity. Branch is another high-character player and although it’s a bit of a luxury to take him here — isn’t this what the Seahawks are supposed to be trying to do? Draft talent, rather than just reach for need? I was tempted to take Adetomiwa Adebawore to pair with Anderson, to produce a thoroughly dynamic defensive front. Schmitz and Downs were also considered.
#37 — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
This was another position I wasn’t planning to address here. Josh Downs left the board at #30 and John Michael Schmitz followed at #32. I could’ve drafted Mazi Smith to play nose tackle. In the end, Gibbs stood out in terms of pure talent. I don’t think people truly realise how good he was in 2022. There were multiple games last season where Alabama toiled and turned to Gibbs to get them out of a hole. He delivered every time. He’s a 4.36 runner at 200lbs and you see it on tape. He just accelerates away from everyone. He’s a dynamic home-run hitter and would be the ideal ‘lightning’ to Ken Walker’s ‘thunder’. Also, he can play two different roles. Gibbs is such a brilliant pass-catcher who runs excellent routes. It wouldn’t be out of the question to move him around formations, lining him up in the slot and looking for mismatch opportunities. Finally, he has experience returning kicks and could be useful on special teams immediately. Like Walker last year, he’s a first round talent who might suffer due to positional value.
#52 — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Regulars will know I’m a big fan of Mingo and see him as the second best receiver in the draft. He has a good frame (6-2, 220lbs) with enormous 10.5 inch hands — but runs in the 4.4’s and is a perfect ‘big slot’. The Seahawks experimented with a bigger slot receiver last year with Laquon Treadwell. Mingo could be an ideal WR3 for the team after the failed Dee Eskridge experiment. What does he do well? His routes are extremely precise and he’s nearly always where he needs to be on time. Mingo has soft hands and is adept competing for the ball in the air or tracking it over his shoulder. He has enough speed to get downfield and make the big explosive plays, plus the size to box-out and win with physicality. He can also make the spectacular happen — such as a stunning one-handed grab downfield last season or the best ‘Moss’ we saw in 2022. As a blocker, he has no peer in this receiver class. If you want your receivers to block — this is your guy. He loves to get after it. I think he’s a top-50 player who could go a lot earlier than people think and in this range, he’d be a home-run pick.
#83 — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
I nearly didn’t make this pick because it perhaps strains the boundaries of realism. There’s a chance Wypler goes in the late second or the early third. Because Arizona traded up for JMS at the end of the first round, I let this pass. They are the team who might take Wypler off the board at the top of round three. If he does last into this range and Seattle still needs a center, it’s a perfect fit. Wypler has the traits for the blocking scheme. He’s athletic and agile — running a brilliant 4.53 short shuttle. He has a wrestling background which they like. He had a tremendous game against Georgia in the college football playoffs. He said at the combine he’d already started studying the Rams blocking scheme because it fit him so perfectly — so he’s already well versed in Seattle’s system. This pick would give the Seahawks a chance to have a settled center position for the first time in years.
#123 — Jaquelin Roy (NT, LSU)
We’re five picks in and you’re probably asking — where are the defensive linemen? This is part of the problem. It’s not a deep, rich class. If you go in other directions early, you’ll miss out on the names everyone’s talking about. The Seahawks will have to determine whether they want to draft for talent or need early on. Personally, I hope they don’t force things. They’ve admitted that has been an issue in the past. It’s also worth noting that, Jarran Reed aside, they’ve typically waited until the middle round to add at defensive tackle. Only last week John Schneider was playing down the nose tackle position. LSU’s Roy would be a good option here. He’s been durable. He plays a ton of snaps. I think his tape is inconsistent and average but we’re talking about a fourth round nose tackle. If you can develop his technique while he plays in year one, he might be able to anchor the line on early downs.
#129 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
This is the pick acquired from Dallas. I really like McFadden and was pleased to see he’s taking an official-30 visit to Seattle. He played left tackle for Clemson but his natural home is kicking inside to guard. He’s 6-2 and 303lbs with 34-inch arms. His frame and length are ideally set-up to win leverage battles. He’s athletic too, running a 4.99 at the combine. The LA Rams have regularly converted college tackles to guard for their blocking scheme. The Seahawks might start doing something similar. Either way, with both current starting guards out of contract in 2024, investing in someone who can possibly step-in next year is important.
#151 — Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
I only started watching Trice just before my last horizontal board was published. I’m glad I took the time to watch him. He’s an excellent cornerback prospect with fantastic size (6-3, 206lbs, 32.5 inch arms) and he runs well (4.47 forty). He’s quite scheme specific but screams ‘Seahawks’. He wants to be physical and scrappy in coverage. On any dump-offs and screens he does a great job getting off blocks to hammer ball carriers. He reads plays better than most other cornerbacks in this class — often making the right decision to gamble to undercut a route or passing off the correct receiver. There’s so much potential here and if he’s available in this range, he could compete very quickly to play outside across from Tariq Woolen.
#154 — Tyler Lacy (DE, Oklahoma State)
Nobody is going to watch Lacy and think he’s going to come into the league and wreak havoc. He is what he is — a very solid, sturdy, physical and competitive 3-4 defensive end. He’s 6-4 and 280lbs with 33-inch arms and massive 11-inch hands. On tape there are minimal splash plays or big pass-rushing moves. What he does do very well is make first contact, read the defense, disengage and then fill a gap. He’s a battle-tested warrior who could work into the rotation immediately and provide some very solid, sturdy reps up front. If the Seahawks come out of the draft with Jaquelin Roy and Tyler Lacy, they might have missed out on the star power for the defensive front but they’d have a couple of guys who are going to bring it and take on a decent chunk of snaps. They’d still need to go out and get one more veteran — potentially Shelby Harris could return.
#198 Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
If you missed my interview with Rodriguez, check it out here. The Seahawks need to add a couple of backs to their stable. Rodriguez is a two-time team captain at Kentucky and says he’s very prepared to take on special teams duties when he arrives in the league. He has the size and physicality to take on the workload if one of the top two backs goes down. He can be a fierce tone-setter and he’s a better pass-catcher than most people realise. He’s modelled his game on Marshawn Lynch and you see that with his running style. I’m sceptical he’ll be available in this range but given it can’t be ruled out, I took him.
#237 Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)
It was a pleasure to watch Miller at times in 2022. He’s a limited athlete. He isn’t going to fly around the field and make rangy modern-day linebacker plays. Yet when Florida needed someone to give the team an inspirational speech on the sideline, level someone to get things going or play through a series of serious injuries to gut it out and try and get his team a win, Miller was always there. If he lasts to the seventh round, he’d be a fantastic pick for special teams duties and to provide a bit of depth at linebacker.
The class in full
Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Jaquelin Roy (NT, LSU)
Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
Tyler Lacy (DE, Oklahoma State)
Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)
Final thoughts
There are obviously some areas not addressed here. Is there enough for the defensive line to function properly? That’s debatable and highlights the bind the Seahawks have got themselves in, with no depth up front and no money to do anything about it. I’m not sure they can force this though and they have to avoid a need-focused draft. They have to find a way to free-up cash to complete their roster.
Did I need to take a safety at #26? No — but you can easily make an argument that Branch is worthy of that selection for a scheme that is placing a lot of value at safety. He’s a good player. I suspect they might be the team that goes for John Michael Schmitz in the 20’s, making this all a moot point. But in terms of defensive talent left on the board at #26, you could make a case for Branch.
No quarterback is added. Personally I would be disappointed to come out of the Russell Wilson trade having not added a QBOTF candidate. It seems to be mostly forgotten that there were two sides to Geno Smith’s 2022 season — a sensational first half, followed by a very average at best second half. His contract is excellently structured to provide team flexibility and player incentive but if he doesn’t deliver, you could have a major problem at the position as early as next year.
It’d be preferable to add a linebacker who can potentially start in 2024. This isn’t a good linebacker class, though.
On the plus side — I think this is a talent-rich class. You get two impact first-round defenders who could be the future of the unit in terms of performance, attitude and leadership. You add even more playmaking quality to the offense — plus a long-term option at center. The day three picks can all contribute quickly, even if it’s just competing for a job or special teams.
I think they’d be in a very strong position to take another step forward with a class like this. You’re never going to get everything done in a perfect, satisfactory fashion. I think a draft like this, however, would make you more talented and more competitive and I’d be giving it an A+ grade.
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Bryce Young, future #1 overall pick?
There are certain reporters who make you sit up and take notice. Especially when they declare something. Chris Mortensen is one of those reporters. He’s not a talking head, offering an opinion. For him to come out and flat out state what he did in the video below is worth paying attention to:
Chris Mortensen: Bryce Young is the pick. They (Panthers) all love Bryce Young.
🎥: @espn pic.twitter.com/Yb8jwRXpcb
— Panthers On Tap (@PanthersOnTap) April 5, 2023
His ESPN colleague Adam Schefter did something similar when the Panthers moved up to the #1 pick. Schefter said Bryce Young was the player they traded up to get.
He qualified his statement by saying Young could end up being Carolina’s version of Mac Jones. The 49ers traded up to #3 in 2021 with the intention of selecting Jones — an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. Between executing the trade and making the pick, they’d talked themselves into taking Trey Lance instead.
It’s possible, therefore, the Panthers experience a similar shift in opinion. You can imagine why, given the way C.J. Stroud has conducted his pre-draft process. That game against Georgia will get a fair few viewings over the next three weeks.
I got the sense during my interview with Scot McCloughan that the unnamed quarterback he spoke about in the most glowing terms was Young. The size and durability concerns are legit and will be discussed by every team thinking of drafting a quarterback early. The natural talent, football intelligence, accuracy, leadership and ability to carry a team are most definitely not in question.
It simply comes down to the size and frame, at a time when players like Tua Tagovailoa are at a career crossroads due to the number of concussions and other injuries he’s experienced. Meanwhile, there are three other hulking, prototype athletes in the same class. There’s no right or wrong answer here because it’s impossible to predict how Young will translate. I’d say any opinion is justified, for or against.
For the purpose of this article, let’s say it is Young who goes first overall.
Lance Zierlein’s latest mock draft was an interesting read. Lance is based in Houston and whether it’s through sources or simply understanding the Texans mindset, he’s had a lot of success projecting their moves. For example, he got both of their first round picks correct in his final mock draft a year ago.
He had the Texans taking a defensive lineman at #2 in his new mock.
Not Will Anderson.
Tyree Wilson.
It’s worth noting at this point that Lance rates Wilson very highly and the quarterbacks, not so much. Wilson is his #5 overall graded prospect. Stroud is only ranked ninth. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis aren’t even in the top-20. It’s possible that played a part in this projection.
I spoke to someone in the league recently who said Anderson would be “hands down the top defender taken”. That’s from the same source who told me last year’s quarterbacks were a bunch of third rounders and accurately confirmed exactly where the three top tackles would be drafted in the top-10 (he also had Lewis Cine as a fourth rounder, for the purpose of transparency).
The same source told me it was a ‘certainty’ four quarterbacks would go in the top-10 this year and it was very possible four go in the top-five.
Chris Mortensen, in the same broadcast where he claimed Bryce Young would be the #1 overall pick, also declared Will Levis wouldn’t get out of the top-five, indicating the likelihood of four very early picks at quarterback.
Even so, I want to consider chaos today. On March 9th I published a mock draft that had the Texans taking Anderson at #2, noting:
Everyone assumes they’ll go quarterback. DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco due to the D-line. GM Nick Caserio is from the Patriots way of doing things and they’ve always been happy to draft for scheme fit later. Anderson’s A+ character and talent could tempt the Texans to launch their new era with a different approach here.
Granted, I made that prediction with the thought that the Texans could try and sign Jimmy Garoppolo. They reportedly were in discussions with Garoppolo but he ultimately chose ‘Patriots West’ instead of ‘Patriots Texas’.
That they’ve only signed Case Keenum instead suggests to me the Texans are all-in on a quarterback at #2. They’ve signed a lot of veteran offensive players too — plus re-signed their left tackle to a massive extension. It feels like they’re setting the table for a rookie.
Even so, that rookie doesn’t have to be taken at #2. Zierlein had the Texans trading up from #12 to #7 to select Will Levis. If Levis is a top-five lock, as Mortensen claims, I’m not sure this tactic is going to work for Houston. If they want a quarterback they’re going to need to either trade back into the top-five, take Hendon Hooker at #12 or hope nobody else takes Hooker and then move back into the late first from the #34 pick.
It all seems very convoluted just to avoid taking Stroud at #2. Especially when defensive linemen will be readily available at #12 and #34.
I’ve wondered whether the Shanahan scheme, which is used to dealing with scheme fits at QB, might go cheap at the position. They could persevere with Davis Mills but that seems a long-shot for the long-suffering Texans fans eager for some excitement. Neither is there anyone worth waiting to take later on. I like Dorian Thompson-Robinson but he’s not a Shanahan type. The source I mentioned earlier described this QB class as the top-four, Hendon Hooker, then a bunch of six and seven rounders (for what it’s worth). The league really felt the blow of virtually an entire middle-tier of quarterbacks choosing not to declare.
Mac Jones trade? It would make sense if New England had a viable replacement lined up. I’m not sure Bailey Zappe qualifies. Again, is it really worth trying to sell that to Texans fans just to avoid taking Stroud?
Let’s run with it though. Carolina takes Young. Houston only has eyes for Young and pivots to Anderson rather than Stroud or Wilson at #2.
What then?
Arizona would be even more desperate to trade down. They’d be in a rotten position having to choose between a bad bargaining position and the aesthetics of a mediocre offer to trade out of #3, or taking a player (Wilson or a cornerback) who could be available later on.
This is why I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out the Seahawks having interest in trading up to #3. In that scenario, with Stroud available, why wouldn’t you try and jump the Colts? You have more stock than they do. The Cardinals would still pick in the top-five. In that situation, it would make most sense for Arizona to either move down to #4 or #5 or just say, to put it violently, ‘f-it let’s trade down into the mid-teens and get what we can’. Either way, they wouldn’t be in a great negotiating position with Anderson off the board.
If Stroud lasts to #3 — someone will make a move. Even with Anderson leaving the board, the chances of four of the top-five being quarterbacks remains likely, unless the Cardinals only drop to #4 or #5.
My prediction isn’t changing though. I still think it’ll be Stroud and Young in the top-two, whoever is taken first. Then it’ll come down to whether someone makes the move up to #3 or whether the Cardinals stick and pick Anderson.
The fact that Anthony Richardson is meeting with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens is indicative of the intrigue in him. It won’t be a surprise if any of those teams ultimately move up.
The Colts, meanwhile, appear to be preparing to draft Will Levis. I think they’ve settled on that for a while, which is why they didn’t make a bigger push to get up to the #1 pick.
Ultimately I think for the Seahawks it comes down to this. Did someone move up for Richardson, pushing Anderson to Seattle at #5? If not, do they just pivot to Richardson?
As I wrote a couple of days ago, I think it’ll be a huge shock if the Seahawks were to take Jalen Carter — given the pattern of poor decisions he’s made that have led to legal issues, the reported concerns about his football character (including poor practise habits, lack of effort, difficulty to coach — basically doing what he wanted) and the lack of seriousness with which he’s taken his college career (April 2022 — ‘conditioning is my top priority this year’, December 2022 — admits he was embarrassed by his performance against Ohio State where he was struggling to remain on his feet he was so gassed, then the pro-day shambles).
I’ll just go back to what I said on Wednesday. Reportedly they took Kayvon Thibodeaux out of consideration in round one last year. It was reported by multiple people that teams were concerned by how often he talked about his ‘brand’ and money-making potential in the NFL. No other character issues were reported and like Carter, he was a fantastic talent at a key position of need. If that was enough for the Seahawks to not consider Thibodeaux in round one, it’s impossible for me to imagine they’ll look at the extensive baggage surrounding Carter and think ‘that’s our guy’.
We’ll see what happens but I think Carter will be taken at #9 by Chicago or #10 by Philadelphia, with the Eagles the most likely suitor. Detroit could be a wildcard but looking at the players they’ve taken since the current regime took over — they seem to want glass-eating all-football types.
I think, like the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens, the Seahawks have had their heads turned by Richardson. I sense they’re intrigued. They’re open to the possibility. Their ideal pick — and I’ve thought this for a while — is probably Will Anderson. I do think, however, that John Schneider will be enamoured by this QB class. That’s why I’ve been projecting Anderson or Richardson at #5 — whoever lasts.
If the Texans pull off a stunner and take Anderson at #2 — and if Stroud lasts to #3 — I think the Seahawks should be on red alert to pounce.
Ian Rapoport mentioned this week that the Texans’ priority in this draft is to add difference making talent. I listened to that and thought, that should be Seattle’s priority too. I keep seeing people touting trading down, getting even more picks, having more picks next year. Eventually you need to acquire some stars — and as the Seahawks know, the top players don’t tend to last into the 20’s.
Having a whole bunch of picks is great. It’s nice to add talent at a variety of spots, look at the roster and feel various holes are filled.
That’s not often what it’s about though, is it? Ultimately when it gets down to the wire, it’s who is the healthiest team and who has the players capable of winning you a big game when it matters most.
The Chiefs roster has a few holes. Their defense lacks any stars. Yet they have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, an offensive line and a great offensive minded Head Coach. They’ve been to three Super Bowls. They were aggressive to get Mahomes, seeing through his well discussed issues in college and believing he had star potential.
The Bills would be thoroughly average without Josh Allen. They had to be aggressive to trade up and get him.
San Francisco spent a decade building their defense and even then, without Nick Bosa it’d be half as dangerous. Their offense clicks because they have a genius working the controls. This isn’t easy to copy.
The Eagles needed their GM to go on an unprecedented run of success, highlighted by his incredibly aggressive and highly productive trading strategy.
I’m not sure the Seahawks can build a Championship roster ticking off needs by having the most picks possible. They have good players and will likely acquire more this year. How many elite players do they have? Who on Seattle’s roster is a top-five at their position currently?
Clearly the Seahawks have holes to fill and they’ll do that with 10 picks. They also need to find at least a couple of players who end up being elite, top-level, feared players who drive you forward.
You aren’t getting that trading down from #5 and taking Peter Skoronski. You aren’t getting that from taking Tyree Wilson at #5 simply because he’s big, long and plays on the defensive line.
If you get a sniff at Stroud, go for a full nostril instead. Richardson has the potential to be special. I don’t think Anderson is necessarily a ‘special’ talent but I think he can be very, very good and improve the team in a multitude of ways with his attitude and leadership.
Carter would be on this list too but for me, you simply cannot trust him to deliver on his potential. He is telling you with his actions that he can’t be trusted. The only thing worse than squandering this rare top-five pick on an average player would be blowing it on someone who is giving off all the signs he’s not in any way, shape or form, taking this process and his career seriously.
Some risk is required here to elevate this team to the next level. Taking the right risk is key. Moving up to #3 if C.J. Stroud is available? Worth it. Hoping Will Anderson can elevate your defense to another level? Worth it. Taking a shot on developing Anthony Richardson, knowing what his physical talent is? Worth it. Thinking Jalen Carter is going to completely transform himself with a guaranteed $30m in the bank, playing on the other side of the country, with months between the draft and his first training camp? That’s one to sit out.
If I’m right and it’s likely that one of Anderson or Richardson will be there at #5 — it’s a great opportunity for this team. They will have four more picks in the first three rounds, with a chance to acquire more, to get the best of both worlds — a top talent in the class plus filling out the roster.
This isn’t just about 2023. It isn’t just about five years down the line.
It’s about working towards a Championship team. Sometimes you have to consider the long and short term. That’s what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen. It took years for the 49ers to grow into what they are. The Eagles didn’t just draft Jalen Hurts in round two and they were off. That was a process that took time.
The reason Seattle might draft a QB is no different, really, than the reason why they might draft a tight end. It’s about thinking about today and tomorrow.
That’s the essence of the draft.
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Absolutely loved this interview. Chris was great to chat to. We discussed his admiration for Marshawn Lynch, his mentality/running style, his team mate at Kentucky Will Levis and much more. Check it out…
Future Seahawk? Unlikely
As we edge closer to the draft, we’re starting to see a consensus among prognosticators. Todd McShay, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Renner and others have the Seahawks picking Jalen Carter at #5.
Earlier today I watched this video featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms, discussing Seattle’s options. They concluded Carter would be the pick in Seattle and that a quarterback wouldn’t be.
It’s always best to avoid guaranteeing things will or won’t happen. You can never be 100% sure. Usually it’s a surefire way to end up with egg on your face, writing an article explaining why you got things so emphatically wrong. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve called something poorly, with my Geno Smith video last year a good example of that.
That said, I’m not going to need to do a Jalen Carter video. I’m comfortable saying he won’t be Seattle’s pick at #5. Book it. Put it in ink.
I’m not 100% sure. I am 99.5% sure, though.
Regulars will be bored of me talking about this. Trust me, I’m bored too. I’m going to go over a lot of old ground again here. Yet with the majority of high-profile mocks pairing Seattle with Carter recently, I think it’s worth returning to this subject.
I’ll start by saying I appreciate why this projection keeps being made. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have developed reputations as risk takers. They’ve taken big swings. They’ve made controversial moves, most notably drafting Frank Clark.
I understand why someone who doesn’t follow the Seahawks religiously would conclude that Carter to Seattle makes sense. Good ol’ Pete will be prepared to take a shot. He’ll coach him up and get him going. No problemo.
This isn’t reflective of where the Seahawks are at, though. In the case of Carter, I also doubt they’ll want to take on this particular challenge.
We’ve heard a few times now that the Seahawks last year renewed their commitment to character when it comes to drafting. The words ‘without compromise’ have been used to describe their approach to character.
Here’s what Schneider said about their celebrated 2022 class back in November:
“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”
Here’s Pete Carroll on how character played a big part in the players they selected:
“It was really important to us. Their character and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that. We were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us.
We’re always trying to get more accurate in what we’re doing and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial and we continue to look at that.”
Schneider has talked openly about making mistakes in the past. In fairness, that isn’t just about character. He’s discussed drafting players who weren’t up to the challenge of competing against the superstars in the locker room. Players were in awe of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, not motivated to take their jobs.
It’s also inevitable that when any reference is made to learning from mistakes, Malik McDowell immediately springs to mind.
The warning signs were there with McDowell — a top-10 talent who sank deep into round two amid a flurry of reports about his character, attitude, personality, dedication to his craft and college consistency.
When Schneider called McDowell to tell him he was being selected, he did so with a warning: “Don’t forget our conversation, OK?”
The Seahawks knew they were selecting a rare physical talent with the tools to be great. They also knew they were taking a gamble. A big gamble. In the second round, three years removed from a Super Bowl run, they felt that chance was worth taking.
McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks.
When I spoke to Scot McCloughan recently, I asked him about the decision making process when weighing up risky picks like McDowell. His answer was telling and important:
“I won’t say any names but there’s a player this year who is highly, highly, highly talented at a position that’s hard to find. I’ve been there before and I’ve taken that player. I learned early, I didn’t listen to it because the talent outweighed the character but my first boss told me if you make one exception, you’ll end up with a team of exceptions. I never understood what that meant until I got older.”
“Everybody makes mistakes. I’ve made many of them. It’s the ones who keep making the same mistake over and over that really worry you.”
I don’t know who the player is he referred to in this quote but the point about a pattern of mistakes is important. There was a pattern with McDowell. There’s a pattern with Carter. From the reported maturity concerns, the clear and obvious conditioning issues and now the legal trouble.
McDowell and Carter are different players with different issues. Yet for all the talk of learning lessons, it wouldn’t be much of a learned lesson to go down this road — with a much more valuable, expensive and high-profile pick.
Seattle’s experience with McDowell, you’d think, should be enough to sit out this next game of roulette. Everyone deserves a mulligan. The Seahawks have had theirs.
Further to that, Dave Wyman (who hosts a weekly show with Schneider) reported a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were unwilling to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one last year. Thibodeaux’s character issue consisted of a keenness to talk, non-stop, about his ‘brand’ and how much money he intended to make. If that was enough to remove him from Seattle’s first round board, it’s hard to imagine Carter is going to be considered.
Really, that should be enough right? Assuming that information on Thibodeaux is true, are we really going to imagine a situation where Thibodeaux’s entrepreneurial ambitions were too problematic but Carter’s reported maturity, conditioning and legal issues are not?
Let’s take the conditioning angle in isolation. We identified a couple of months ago that Carter, when quizzed last April about his priorities for the season, said his #1 aim was to improve his conditioning. He reiterated that twice during the press conference and it was acknowledged by his Head Coach Kirby Smart as necessary.
We could see clearly on tape that these words were not followed up with actions. Carter admitted he was ’embarrassed’ (his words) by his performance against Ohio State, where he looked exhausted and was visibly struggling to get through the game.
Whatever aim he had to improve his conditioning, it seems little was done about it.
Provided Carter was ready for gameday, it wasn’t really viewed as a problem at Georgia. We’re talking about a player so talented that he can live off natural ability.
We saw, however, what happened when the pace quickened and the level upped against the Buckeyes. Suddenly, talent alone wasn’t enough. He’s going to need to take things seriously. When people talk about maturity and Todd McShay talks about whether you’d want him in your locker room, this is part of the issue.
McShay added to what he’s reporting on today’s ‘First Draft podcast’:
“There’s a lot of football character stuff. Practise habits, not giving great effort in practise, talking back to coaches, coaches not being able to coach him hard. There’s a lot of that stuff and it’s all based on seven different sources that I have so I’m not making anything up… You as an organisation have got to figure out can we deal with this?”
The perception is Carroll and Schneider would love to to get such a rare talent in the building and try to work him into a position where he can succeed. Let’s go back to Schneider’s review of the 2022 class:
“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”
If that was the aim for the draft a year ago — and it led to a class broadly considered an A+ group — it flies in the face of realism that they would follow it up by using a top-five pick on someone like Carter. You’ll need to mould him into a pro and change his entire approach to preparation, conditioning and what it takes to succeed at the highest level.
This is why I think Will Anderson will be so highly regarded by the Seahawks. He is a fantastic scheme fit for the 3-4, he has A+ grades in terms of character, family background, the way he speaks to team mates and the media and he’s an alpha who brings 100% energy and physicality to every series.
That’s a Seahawk. If he lasts to #5, he’ll probably literally be a Seahawk.
You cannot make these arguments for Carter. Bring it every series? Is he even going to bring himself to every lifting session? I’m not being flippant, I’m being serious.
Carter isn’t going to be the pick. The Seahawks might actually appreciate that the mainstream media are focusing on that angle as much as they are.
Someone will take him early. There’s been a lot of fuss around Drew Rosenhaus’ announcement that he won’t meet with any teams not picking in the top-10. Frankly, I think it’s a reasonable tactic from the agent. Better to get in front of the story if most of the league has little interest in meeting (and therefore drafting) his client. Now it sounds like bravado rather than damage limitation.
The team that selects Carter will have a GM in a secure position. That GM will have money in the bank whereby he can afford to risk getting a big decision wrong if the pick busts.
I’m going to mock him to the Eagles at #10 in every projection unless new information emerges. Howie Roseman is a hero to Eagles fans after building two Super Bowl teams in recent years. He already has a Super Bowl roster on his hands, so it’s a low-risk gamble for him. This is an extreme bonus pick for the Eagles. A shot to nothing, really.
Could the Bears take him? Maybe — but they also have a new GM and are rebuilding. I think the Lions are a wildcard. The Eagles will ultimately be my prediction, though.
Character is another reason why I think the Seahawks will also be very intrigued by the quarterbacks. I don’t buy the rhetoric expressed by Florio and Simms that they’ll be worried about undermining Geno Smith. The Geno contract was structured for a reason. It’s a beautifully crafted deal full of incentive without any long-term commitment. With the way Smith’s 2022 season ended, they’re right to keep their options open on a player who was a journeyman until last year.
All four of the top quarterbacks have the competitive attitude and high character that Carroll and Schneider are looking for. Three of the quarterbacks are physical marvels with outstanding upside. The other is being described in the highest terms for his character and talent.
Questions about the future at QB throughout the season? They won’t worry about that. This is the team that spent 14 months living with a Wilson trade saga in the media. They wrote-off millions on a Matt Flynn contract. They’ve handled noise.
I think too much of this draft season has been filled discussing whether the Seahawks are prepared to draft a quarterback. I think it’s fairly evident they are. Now it’s just a case of whether they actually will.
I don’t think the last few months have been one big lying session.
I don’t think they’ve been fibbing about the importance of character in their draft decision making. The 2022 draft is evidence enough of them putting their money where their mouth is, plus the report on their lack of interest in Thibodeaux.
I don’t think they’ve been pulling a fast one, telling everyone they’re monitoring the quarterbacks closely and might take one when they have no intention of doing so. If they were willing to trade Russell Wilson to the Browns in 2018 simply in order to replace him with Josh Allen, or draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they already had prime-Wilson, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t use a rare top-five pick on a quarterback in this draft if Schneider really likes one or more of the group.
When they say picking fifth overall is a rare opportunity they’re excited about — I think they mean it. They’re hopefully never going to be in this position again.
I don’t think they’re as eager to trade down as some believe. Trade down for what? To get even more than the haul of 10 picks they already have? Just to select a guard, running back, tight end or spend a high pick on a cornerback for the first time ever? To get stock in 2024 that they hope will be as good as the top-five pick they already possess?
Thankfully we only have to wait three weeks to find out the truth but I still think it’ll be fairly straight forward in the top-five.
C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will be the top-two picks, with the order to be determined. I think it’ll be Stroud at #1.
Then the draft hinges on the Cardinals. It’s highly possible a team trades up for one of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Arizona needs stock to fill out their roster, after a disastrous free agency period. They’re basically in rebuild mode.
If no sufficient offer comes forth, they’ll almost certainly take Will Anderson. That would be an excellent pick because he has talent, character and can help reset the culture in Arizona. Yet increasingly it feels like someone is going to trade up for Richardson. There’s a reason why Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee are all having official-30 visits with him.
I do think the Seahawks will consider moving up too. They seem to have taken a real shine to Richardson. There’s a reason why Schneider was, according to Corbin Smith, chatting for considerable time to Richardson’s agent at the Florida pro-day, with Carroll having an audience with Billy Napier. It just feels like, whether they ultimately draft him or not, they’re intrigued.
If Arizona sticks and takes Anderson at #3, I would expect Will Levis to go to the Colts. Indianapolis needs a 2023 starter. Levis is better prepared to do that. I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation. I think it’s that time of year where one prognosticator does one thing and everyone copies. I appreciate why some teams won’t like Levis as an option but I think the Colts and Seahawks will be very prepared to select him considering who their GM’s are, their preferences, and the fit (Levis’ readiness to start for Indianapolis and success within Seattle’s scheme at Kentucky).
In the scenario where picks #3-4 go Anderson/Levis — I would expect the Seahawks to select Richardson at #5.
Anderson or Richardson. Worst case scenario, Levis.
Either way, a win-win-win for the Seahawks.
As for the rest of their picks — I think a few things. Firstly, there’s room for a skill-position pick like we saw a year ago with Ken Walker. That’s represented a ton in mocks with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trendy picks. I think receiver could be an option but see Josh Downs as a more likely fit (or Jonathan Mingo on day two). They might prefer to invest in tight end due to the quality of the class and the need that will be present in 2024.
The ‘edge’ rusher group is not as good as some people are suggesting. There are a lot of names but most are day three types. It’s a position you have to strike early. If it’s not Will Anderson, I would expect Will McDonald to be an early target. Keep an eye on Derrick Hall too as he fits the profile perfectly that Seattle likes at the position. If they can’t get to the key names at the top, they might wait until later for someone like YaYa Diaby — who is having an official-30 visit.
Center will almost certainly be an early target with one of John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler seemingly destined to end up in Seattle.
Bodies are needed up front on defense and the Seahawks are very aware of that. Let’s remember though — this has often been a mid-round target. It won’t be a surprise if they see players like Cameron Young, Byron Young (Alabama), Jaquelin Roy and others as good quality snap eaters in the middle rounds, meaning they can focus on other areas early.
The #20-40 range could be a good area to add another player who can flip between three and five-technique to provide extra pressure up front.
It’s also a deep class at safety, full of aggressive, physical players and team captains. I think they’ve worked out they can comfortably replace Ryan Neal with a rookie drafted between rounds 3-5 — saving money.
And what do these players have in common? Anderson, the quarterbacks, Downs, Schmitz, Wypler, Byron Young, Hall, the safeties — high character, mature, pro’s before they’re pro’s.
When the 2023 draft is complete, I’m certain we’ll be looking at the class and acknowledging how important character was when it came to Seattle’s picks.
No Georgia defensive tackles will be included…
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