Author: Rob Staton (Page 260 of 424)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Instant reaction: Battered Seahawks swept by Rams

December 27, 2015 /

Pete Carroll’s opening statement in his post-game press conference summed it up: “This was a day you want to forget.”

In a season containing a few ugly performances, this felt like the worst.

The Seahawks were sloppy, reckless, bruised and a bit unlucky. A key touchdown drive by the Rams to make it 23-10 was punctuated by two fortunate fumble recoveries. To be fair, Seattle didn’t really deserve any luck today. They were beaten 23-17 and it’s a flattering score.

There were just too many mistakes. A fumble returned for a Rams touchdown to make it 10-0 started it. Seattle never found any rhythm or a running game. It always felt like they were swimming upstream. When you see Richard Sherman getting torched by Kenny Britt for a score — you know it’s going to be a bad day. There were three turnovers by the offense.

St. Louis did what they always do against the Seahawks. They blitzed, they were physical, they were intense. There were multiple concussions involving players on both teams. With very little to play for other than the #6 seed — Seattle didn’t match their opponents intensity or efficiency.

The ever growing injury list didn’t help. Without Russell Okung the Seahawks had a tough day protecting Russell Wilson. It seriously impacted the quarterback in a performance reminiscent of his early season struggles. Wilson was constantly flustered — scrambling into pressure, not trusting the protection, holding the ball too long. For what felt like the first time in his career — he looked clearly injured after this battering.

It wasn’t just the absence of Okung. Aaron Donald is legitimately one of the best players in the NFL. Garry Gilliam had his worst game in a few weeks. Patrick Lewis tossed a snap over the head of Wilson for a six-yard loss early in the game. His daisy-trimmer in the fourth quarter on 3rd and two essentially ended the game — forcing a punt after a major loss. The Seahawks still had time to fight back — that ended any hopes of a dramatic late win.

Carroll has been quick to praise the O-line in recent weeks. It was a different story after the game today: “We didn’t block very well today. When we run for 60 yards, we’re in bad shape at the line of scrimmage.”

Historically it’s an impactful game. Seattle’s 25-game run of 100-yards rushing came to an end. A run of 63 games where they had a lead comes to an end. Wilson had a lead in every game he’s played in the NFL — until today. The Rams won in Seattle for the first time since October 2004.

Seattle made mistakes while Case Keenum barely put a foot wrong. Who expected that? Keenum didn’t even come close to a bad decision. When he took shots they were calculated. He managed his offense perfectly. The Seahawks didn’t really pressure him in any way.

Pete Carroll is without doubt one of the best coaches in the league — but Jeff Fisher is his arch nemesis. Nobody discombobulates the Seahawks quite like Fisher. Carroll and his staff were again out-coached by Fisher’s crew. Two poorly judged challenges highlighted a bad day at the office. Rams fans must be wondering how their team can sweep the Seahawks and win in Arizona — and be so decidedly below average the rest of the year.

The Seahawks end with a 5-3 record at Century Link Field. Previously teams have been swallowed up in a vacuum of noise and brilliant defense. This year several teams have played their best football in Seattle. Is the challenge of the Clink actually giving opponents a psychological edge? Is every trip to Seattle seen as a chance to make a statement? It might not be a bad thing that the Seahawks are going on the road in the playoffs and could be seen as the underdog.

On a day when the Steelers put their playoff hopes in major jeopardy losing to an injury-ravaged Baltimore team — there is some comfort that the Seahawks are already in the post-season. However, with a tough trip to Arizona next week there is some danger Seattle will limp into the post-season (maybe literally) after back-to-back defeats.

They won’t face Aaron Donald in the post-season. Green Bay and Carolina both lost in disappointing fashion today. You’re feeling pretty good if you’re an Arizona Cardinals fan today. The Seahawks need to get healthier and find the kind of bite they showed in Minnesota.

The margin for error evaporated after a 2-4 start and Seattle’s fate isn’t impacted too much by this loss. It might be a good thing to re-focus minds and come out swinging next week. The Seahawks had a wretched performance in week 16 of the 2013 season. They didn’t play much better the following week either. But they won the Super Bowl. They can’t afford to play like this again though — or it’ll be a short-lived playoff campaign.

Tom Cable challenges Marshawn Lynch to “adapt”

December 23, 2015 /

For years the Seahawks relied on Marshawn Lynch as a tone setter. He was the heart and soul. The offense needed his physical running style. He was the identity.

Now he might have to try and fit in.

Tom Cable made some interesting comments to the local media today:

Are the remarks the first public admittance that Lynch is difficult to manage? Not that it’s any kind of secret.

I suspect we’ll never quite know how difficult, although there have been plenty of hints along the way. Chris Mortensen’s report that the Seahawks were “tired of his ways” a year ago. Manish Mehta’s report that Lynch “went off” after Percy Harvin was traded and “almost didn’t get on (the) bus” for the St. Louis game that week. Who can forget the day he flipped off Darrell Bevell during the 2013 season?

Even this year Stephen A. Smith suggested during an episode of First Take that Lynch was considering not playing the season opener against the Rams in support of Kam Chancellor’s hold out. Lynch famously wore Chancellor’s jersey at practise the week of the game.

There’s no doubting Lynch is a well respected, extremely influential member of the roster. Players look up to him. He in turn supports them. You’d never call Lynch a bad team mate. He seems to have an issue with authority — and therein lies the problem.

It feels like the Seahawks have had to give up a lot of ground to keep Lynch on-side. They’ve tolerated hold-outs and threats of retirement. They appear to allow him to come and go as he pleases. It might not quite be walking on egg shells but is it close?

Lynch comes across as a highly effective loose cannon — a somewhat contradictory statement that perfectly sums up Seattle’s relationship with Beast Mode. They’ve had a ‘can’t live with him, can’t live without him’ relationship for a while.

And suddenly — they’ve discovered they probably can live without him.

Thomas Rawls replaced Lynch this year and, whisper it quietly, comprehensively outplayed him. Russell Wilson is in the best form of his career and appears to be emerging as the heart and soul of the offense.

This isn’t really Lynch’s offense any more.

Cable’s comments don’t really leave much to the imagination. Read them again:

“It’s for him to come back in and be able to adapt to this football team and the way it acts and the way it’s moving right now collectively.”

“So it’s his ability to adapt to us, really, who we are and how we’ve come together as a group and as a team.”

First of all, Tom Cable is the only coach who can probably get away with saying this. I doubt Lynch would respond to a similar sentiment from Pete Carroll or Darrell Bevell. The question is — is he willing to adapt?

Can he be part of the group? Be a contributor rather than the be-all and end-all?

If you want evidence of how careful the Seahawks are with Lynch — look at Rawls’ carries in the Cincinnati game (23 for 169 yards) compared to the following week when he returned from injury (Rawls had one carry for eight yards against Carolina). As soon as Lynch returned he was given the keys to the offense again. They didn’t even try to work Rawls into the rotation.

This week Carroll snapped at a reporter for using the term ‘committee’ to describe the current running back situation. It was easy to wonder whether this had anything to do with one of Lynch’s previous hold-outs — reportedly inspired by some throwaway remarks by Darrell Bevell about Christine Michael getting more snaps during the 2014 season.

Treading carefully with Marshawn Lynch seems to be par for the course.

Maybe that’s about to end?

Cable’s point is quite forceful. This is a team that is excelling with a perfectly balanced offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways — with Wilson working the controls.

When Lynch returns, they cannot and surely will not revert back to what they were trying to do before the bye week. The days of hand-it-off to Marshawn and all will be good appear to be in the past.

Whatever happens, this is yet another indication that a separation is imminent. It’s not just the cost (Lynch’s cap hit is $11.5m in 2016). The Seahawks don’t need to try and force players to adapt any more. They’ve found the way forward on offense. Wilson, Rawls, Baldwin — balance, creativity, grit and a similar minded group of individuals that encapsulate the mantra of ‘all-in’.

That doesn’t mean Lynch doesn’t still have a big role to play this season. If he is willing to adapt — and if he can get healthy — what better way to end a glorious run in Seattle than to help guide this team through another successful playoff run?

As Cable insists, however, he’ll need to buy-in to make it a reality.

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Browns, make playoffs

December 20, 2015 /

Another week, another brilliant performance by Russell Wilson.

Even as the Seahawks tried out multiple running backs in search of a Lynch/Rawls stop gap, Wilson excelled. Two more touchdowns to Doug Baldwin, a third to Tyler Lockett. He’s now registered a career high 29 passing scores with two games still to play.

Today Wilson became the first player in NFL history to throw three or more touchdowns and zero picks in five consecutive games. Just think of the names who failed to achieve this feat.

Seattle’s third down conversion rate is unmatched since the bye week. Today the Seahawks completed 9/12 (75%). Having started the season unable to sustain drives, now they’re virtually unstoppable.

Some of the creative play designs in the passing game today were subtly brilliant. Darrell Bevell won’t get the same level of attention as Wilson or even Christine Michael (more on him in a moment). Yet Bevell has surely quietened his critics for the rest of the season.

So onto Michael. Seattle’s three-headed monster quickly lost a head when Derrick Coleman (who started the game) had a modest start. Bryce Brown had second dibs and was pretty good. Michael had to wait his turn — but certainly impressed the most.

It’s likely to be a job-share again next week against the Rams — but Michael has earned the chance to take most of the totes (as he did today). The stat-line (16 carries, 84-yards) only tells part of the story. He ran with authority and did a good job in pass-pro. Brown managed 43-yards from nine carries.

Marcus Burley warrants a mention (one interception, one sack). Michael Bennett’s sack total (9.5) is a career high. The defense overall deserves credit — the Browns played pretty well on offense and still only managed 13 points and had very little momentum in the second half.

The only concern is the growing list of injuries. Russell Okung hurt a calf. Kam Chancellor missed the game. DeShawn Shead, a doubt all week, left the game early. Luke Willson limped off late on and is clearly battling with injury. Doug Baldwin looked a little groggy after his second touchdown.

Even so, the Seahawks are rolling. They’re in the playoffs now (confirmed). And nobody will look forward to facing them in January.

Todd McShay’s mock: Breaking down options for Seattle

December 16, 2015 /

Todd McShay’s first mock draft has the Seahawks going D-line

In every mock draft I’ve done so far, I’ve put Auburn tackle Shon Coleman in the top ten. I still think he’ll enjoy that kind of rise. However, it’s worth looking at other mock drafts to consider players we assume won’t be there.

After all, who knows what’ll actually happen?

ESPN’s Todd McShay published his first mock draft today. Looking at my own mock draft last week, the following players were unavailable but are sitting nicely for the Seahawks in McShay’s projection:

Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
Coleman would be a great fit for any team. He has ideal size and mobility. He has no issues kick-sliding, a clear desire to get to the second level and punish linebackers and the ability to win with power in the run-game. He’s battled cancer and won — Coleman is one of the true feel-good stories in college football. Even if the Seahawks keep Russell Okung it’d be almost impossible to pass on Coleman — even if you move him inside to guard. I think he goes top-15.

Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)
With a perfect compliment of length (6-1) size (200lbs) and athleticism — Apple has the tools to be a big-time cornerback at the next level. He’s very disciplined and doesn’t often gamble — keeping receivers in front of him. He doesn’t get beat over the top. It means he gives up the occasional play underneath but is it a big deal? There’s a ton of potential here and if he’s available for the Seahawks it’d be a tempting option to lock down the spot across from Richard Sherman. Another prospect I’d expect to go in the top-15.

Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
Coleman was the talk of college football for a time. He raced to 20 touchdowns in eight games and looked like a dynamic difference maker who couldn’t be stopped. Dana Holgorsen called him the best player in college. Then Baylor’s quarterback got injured and Coleman didn’t score again in 2015. In a crucial game against TCU he had one catch for eight yards. Other players took the limelight. He needs to go to the combine and prove he’s an exceptional athlete and not a product of the Baylor system. Coleman can be explosive. The Seahawks like that (who doesn’t?).

Tim Williams (DE, Alabama)
He’s had a terrific year and not enough people are talking about him. With 9.5 sacks in 2015 he’s the playmaker on the Alabama defense. He can work the edge, he can contain. PFF, such as it is, grades Williams among the most productive pass rushers in college football. He’s had to overcome a lot in his life. There’s a little Bruce Irvin to him as a player and a person. He has the range to play linebacker. If the Seahawks lose Irvin in free agency, Williams could be an alternative.

Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
There are quite of lot of defensive tackles available in this class — but none of them really stand out. Do any warrant a legitimate grade in round one? Or is there going to be better value in rounds 2-4? Billings does a better job than most working into the backfield but he can be inconsistent. Pete Carroll recently praised Athyba Rubin as the best three-technique he’s had in Seattle. That probably says a lot about what they want from the role (more run-D than penetration) and also their willingness to work around the interior D-line in the veteran market.

Germain Ifedi (T, Texas A&M)
Ifedi is an intelligent, athletic tackle. He played well against Ole Miss and has a lot of upside. He’s a huge man with minimal body fat but shows enough mobility to think he can stay on the outside. The worst case scenario with Ifedi is you probably get a decent starter-level guard. There are mixed views on his stock — some think top-25, others think rounds 2-3. He can help himself at the combine. He could be a more athletic version of James Carpenter — but Carpenter’s run-blocking at Alabama was incredible and that’s probably what sold the Seahawks.

Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)
Alexander has enjoyed a productive season for #1 Clemson and really put himself among the group of cornerbacks expected to go in the first two rounds. He’s listed at 5-10 and 190lbs so length could be an issue for the Seahawks. Teams generally try to avoid taking him on and he could find a home in the top-25 next year. He’d have to pass the 32-inch-arms test for Seattle. Is he special enough to be taken by the Seahawks in round one? I sense Eli Apple or Cameron Sutton might be. I’m not totally convinced with Alexander.

The following players were available in both mocks:

Miles Killebrew (S, Southern Utah)
I mocked Killebrew to the Seahawks last week because he has a tremendous blend of size (6-2, 230lbs) speed (4.4 runner) and a genuine appetite for the game. We had him on our podcast and the way he speaks is similar to Russell Wilson. He’s a genuine baller who could be set for a Deone Bucannon style switch to linebacker. People are talking about Killebrew. If he performs well at the Senior Bowl don’t be surprised if he starts getting first round grades.

Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)
There are two things we’ve learnt about Seattle’s offense this year. 1 — Russell Wilson can be genuinely elite in the pocket with good pass protection. 2 — The Seahawks are better at utilising speed, suddenness and dynamism at receiver over taller targets. Fuller is electric, capable of taking the top of a defense and winning with smart routes. He has exceptional character and grit and might be one of the more underrated draft prospects around. I wouldn’t rule out the Seahawks showing interest here. Jermaine Kearse is a free agent and Paul Richardson can’t stay healthy. Imagine how dynamic Seattle’s passing game could be with Baldwin, Lockett and Fuller on the field next to Jimmy Graham. He recently stated he would be returning to Notre Dame but then opted to receive a grade from the draft committee. He’s ready to go pro.

Adolphus Washington (DT, Ohio State)
The 23-year-old was in the news this week when he was caught in a vice-squad sting. His arraignment on a misdemeanor charge of soliciting for prostitution has been postponed until January 13th. Teams will want to investigate this incident. On the field Washington flits between unstoppable and anonymous. He explodes in and out of games but isn’t always a relentless force. There’s first round talent on tape but is he better as a 3-4 end or working inside in the 4-3? How big is his upside considering he’s already 23?

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)
McShay doesn’t have Elliott going in the first round. That’s interesting and follows on from a point we raised earlier in the week. The Seahawks need to add a rushing partner for Thomas Rawls in 2016 (assuming Marshawn Lynch departs). If Elliott falls into round two — how good would the value be to trade back and take him? Like Rawls he has that explosive ability to exploit a lane and burst into the second level. He can carry the pile and gain extra yards. He makes something out of nothing. Yes — there is likely to be value in the middle rounds at running back. But nobody is as good as Elliott. Being able to rely on an Elliott and Rawls 1-2 punch going forward would be intriguing. If the Seahawks re-sign Okung, Sweezy and Irvin — there aren’t many outstanding needs. They might be able to justify this kind of selection.

So who did McShay pair with the Seahawks? Nebraska defensive tackle Maliek Collins. Here’s what he had to say about the pick:

Collins is still developing as a player, but he’s a hard worker with great feet/hand quickness for his size (6-2, 300 pounds). While his production is down from a year ago (6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks), the whole team struggled under a new coaching staff. His explosive first step still showed up on tape. Collins would really thrive in Seattle.

I’ve watched three Nebraska games since September, focusing on Collins. I wasn’t overly impressed. McShay is right that at times he flashes that excellent first step and it enables him to trouble interior lineman, bounce running plays outside and occasionally pressure quarterbacks. Having said that, it’s all too infrequent. I didn’t feel like I was watching a consistent difference maker.

I think that’s a key point when considering any early Seahawks draft pick. They love impact difference makers in round one. Players with a unique skill set and elite athleticism. When those players haven’t been available in 2013 and 2015, they’ve traded their first round picks for players who possess that type of skill set (Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham).

It’s one of the big issues I have with any projection that has the Seahawks taking a defensive tackle early. By nature, 290-300lbs linemen are not fantastic athletes. The ones who are — Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Aaron Donald — go very early in the draft. If the Seahawks ever had a chance to take a player like Donald they’d probably run to the podium. A defensive tackle who shows a nice first step or is slightly disruptive? That, for me, probably isn’t going to interest them in terms of round one.

Look at the players the Seahawks have drafted early in recent years. Frank Clark and Tyler Lockett in 2015 (both exceptional athletes), Paul Richardson in 2014 (exceptional athlete), Christine Michael in 2013 (exceptional athlete), Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner in 2012 (both exceptional athletes). They generally appear to go for high upside they can coach up.

They’ve avoided taking defensive tackles early, instead choosing to use the veteran free agent market or rounds 3-5 in the draft. With decent depth at defensive tackle this year that could be the plan again.

If they retain most of their current group (Okung, Sweezy, Irvin, Lewis and others) they can afford to shoot for the stars with a difference making athlete again. Of the players McShay had available for the Seahawks in his opening mock, these are the players I’d expect them to show most interest in:

Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)
Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
Tim Williams (DE, Alabama)
Miles Killebrew (S, Southern Utah)
Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)

3000 NFL mock draft: Episode #16

December 15, 2015 /

This week Kenny and I look at the NFC playoff picture, the great form of Russell Wilson, which team might end up with the #1 pick, whether Derrick Henry should’ve won the Heisman, Robert Nkemdiche’s run-in with the law and why the Saints might draft a quarterback early. Check it out. Tell your friends.

https://soundcloud.com/kenneth-arthur-3/seahawks-robert-nkemdiche-derrick-henry-russell-wilson-cam-newton

Seattle’s O-line: Surely they have to keep it together?

December 14, 2015 /

Keeping Russell Okung feels increasingly necessary

Another game, another reason to believe Seattle’s priority in the off-season is keeping this ever improving offensive line together.

The Seahawks allowed 32 sacks in their first seven games. They were on pace to give up 73 for the season. In the next six games? They’ve given up just seven sacks. Now they’re on pace for a yearly total of 48.

According to Brian Nemhauser they’ve gone six straight games allowing two sacks or less. The last time they did that? 2012. Before that? 1983.

What a turnaround.

It’s taken time, patience and a change of center — but suddenly this unit looks like one of the best in the league. Teams all around the NFL are struggling up front. The Seahawks suddenly have a functioning O-line that looks pretty good.

Some of those seven sacks they’ve given up in the last six games aren’t even proper sacks. One includes Russell Wilson keeping a zone-read against Minnesota and being hit in the backfield by Danielle Hunter. It was a run play.

With an estimated $35m to play with in cap space (assuming Marshawn Lynch does move on) they’ll have plenty of scope to do whatever they want.

Re-signing Russell Okung is very possible and feels increasingly like an absolute necessity. In a league with so few elite offensive tackles (there’s probably only 3-4) — keeping a good one is pretty vital. Letting Okung walk to save money seems futile when there’s so much available, the cap is constantly rising and you’d probably have to spend a late first round pick replacing him.

Is it worth risking going into 2016 facing the same kind of growing pains you experienced this year? Hoping either a rookie or Garry Gilliam can fill in at left tackle? They let Breno Giacomini, James Carpenter and Max Unger depart and had some difficulty replacing all of them. Now things are settled — is it worth gambling on further disruption?

That also means keeping J.R. Sweezy — who has really come on strong in recent weeks. It’s hard to imagine what his market value is. He fits Seattle’s scheme well — is he adaptable?

According to Spotrac, if the Seahawks cut or trade Lynch they’ll be among the top-ten teams for free cap space in 2016 (that could change if other teams make high-profile cuts). Not only would they have the room to keep Okung and Sweezy — they could potentially upgrade the O-line. We’ve discussed the possibility of adding a new center. Patrick Lewis isn’t doing anything wrong. If you get an opportunity to sign one of the top center’s in the NFL among this blossoming group — you’d still have to consider it. Look at the way the offense and Russell Wilson has performed with great protection. That’s why there’s no point ruling out the possibility of adding Alex Mack, if he voids his Cleveland contract, to this unit.

Look at Wilson’s play. And this is without Jimmy Graham — who rather than be a distraction I suspect would be putting up monster numbers in this thriving passing game. He certainly was against Pittsburgh pre-injury. For a while the Seahawks have chosen to put a value O-line together. It might be time to adjust that thinking slightly. The results could be a legendary passing quarterback with Aaron Rodgers-style production. It’s genuinely not ridiculous to make that suggestion considering the last four games. Wilson has shown what he can do in a clean pocket.

If we imagine a scenario where the Seahawks do re-sign Okung and Sweezy (and maybe add a new center), it’d shift the team needs elsewhere. They might still add another O-liner in the draft (I would still like to see Adam Bisnowaty from Pittsburgh targeted to provide competition at guard/tackle, replacing Alvin Bailey). Yet ultimately there would be other needs to focus on early.

It’d be easy to point to the interior defensive line. I thought, however, Pete Carroll made some interesting remarks today in his weekly spot with Brock and Salk. Fast forward to 33:59 in the podcast below:

Carroll on Athyba Rubin: “He is really solid now, he’s as tough as you can get. You can’t move the dude and he pursues the football really well. I think he’s been the most effective guy playing three-technique for us that we’ve had. And (the) most consistent. He just won’t budge.”

The Seahawks don’t have a naturally brilliant interior pass rusher in the mould of an Aaron Donald or Geno Atkins. Those players are so rare. It’s one of the reasons why Ndamukong Suh has an average salary of +$19m in Miami.

Carroll talked about Rubin moments after a detailed evaluation of the run defense. The Seahawks are #2 against the run (55 yards behind the Jets at #1). They’re averaging 83.2 rushing yards a game. Philosophically I think the role of the DT in Seattle is, first and foremost, to provide excellent discipline in the run game. Fill gaps, play within the scheme, master your role. Then there are the complimentary rushers. Currently it’s the likes of Frank Clark and Jordan Hill. In the past it was Clinton McDonald.

If the Seahawks aren’t in position to land that other-world pass rushing DT, I suspect they’ll continue with this plan. They’ve plugged in veterans they can trust. And it’s not like they aren’t getting pass rush production elsewhere. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin have combined for 21.5 sacks. The team has 33 overall — just one less than the Houston Texans with J.J. Watt. Avril is sixth in the league for QB hurries (25).

They’ve made their investment in the pass rush by re-signing Bennett and Avril and then drafting Frank Clark in round two. They may yet re-sign Bruce Irvin or replace him with a high draft pick. I suspect that is more likely than chasing any of this defensive tackle class early in the draft. There really isn’t going to be that dynamic interior rusher in rounds 1-2. Louisiana Tech’s Vernon Butler might be the most intriguing prospect for this role — and he could be available in the middle rounds.

They may well have to replace Irvin early if he moves on (and remember, they already rejected the opportunity to keep him for $7m in 2016 when they refused to take up the fifth year option on his contract). We’ve looked at possible replacements in Eric Striker and Miles Killebrew. What about Georgia’s slightly overrated linebacker Leonard Floyd? Does he come into play if he tests well at the combine? He’s tall and lean and can cover surprisingly well at 6-4 and around 230lbs. As a pass rusher he’s inconsistent. He only had 4.5 sacks in 2015 after opting not to declare a year ago. He’d have to be some athlete to warrant consideration.

Of course, with so much free cap space in 2016, the Seahawks could do a deal with Irvin that gives him that $7-7.75m average but limits the first year cap hit (something Davis Hsu considered last week).

The secondary could come into play and we’ve run through some of the possible cornerback options (Tre’Davious White, Cameron Sutton, Eli Apple, Mackensie Alexander — all should go early and all would make some degree of sense). They’ve consistently drafted prospects to develop on the third day — and they might continue to back themselves in that regard.

And then there’s running back. I’m still not convinced the Seahawks would go for this position early after the success of Thomas Rawls. The depth at RB is also good and you should be able to get a good back — such as UCLA’s Paul Perkins — in the middle rounds. Even so, let’s consider Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t force his way into round one. And maybe you’ve traded back into the early second. Do you consider it? Watching Rawls’ burst and explosive ability to take advantage of a lane — and then seeing that lost when he got injured — makes you crave more of the same. Elliott shares the same level of suddenness and drive. It’d be a heck of a one-two punch. I’m not convinced, however, that Elliott makes it out of the late first.

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Ravens, go to 8-5

December 13, 2015 /

The Seahawks got the job done in Baltimore — but at what cost?

Thomas Rawls broke his ankle and that somewhat takes the edge off another resounding win. Pete Carroll has confirmed he’s out for the season.

Nevertheless we saw more brilliance from Russell Wilson. He now has 1,171 yards and 16 touchdowns in his last four games (plus a rushing score). Wilson had five scores here — three to Doug Baldwin and two to Tyler Lockett. He could be the best player in the NFL right now.

Wilson is putting the team on his shoulders in a way the elite quarterbacks are supposed to. The defense wasn’t brilliant today (it did only concede six points though) and the running game stalled after Rawls went out. Wilson still threw it all over the field and again didn’t turn the ball over.

It’s surely no coincidence that this blast of form has coincided with improved O-line play. Wilson wasn’t sacked and had an eternity to throw the ball. Keeping this entire unit together may yet be an off-season priority. What a turnaround from the early season performance. The O-line has allowed eight sacks in the last six games, after 31 sacks in first seven. The improvement here is the underlying story of Seattle’s dramatic change in fortunes.

The Seahawks jump ahead of Minnesota as the #5 seed with home games against Cleveland and St. Louis to come. They’re also two games clear of the chasing playoff pack after Tampa Bay and Atlanta both lost.

They’ll have to move forward without Rawls. How soon can Marshawn Lynch return? As they have so often in the past, the Seahawks need Lynch in a bad way. However well Wilson is playing, they’ll need a running game in the playoffs.

Heisman winner Derrick Henry a fourth round pick?

December 12, 2015 /

Dan Hatman is a former scout with the Eagles, Jets, and Giants. He caused a minor stir on Twitter today after sharing these comments with the Florida Times Union about the projected stock of Heisman winner Derrick Henry:

I think in the Nos. 100-150 range — basically the fourth round. I’m a little biased because I don’t value running backs highly. There are too many guys who have been drafted in the sixth round or later — or not drafted at all — and been functional.

Gil Brandt then got involved and then… a typical Twitter set-to:

Hatman’s opinion is shared by many. I disagree with it fundamentally but understand the take. The perception is you can find productive running backs later in the draft. This is true. It’s also true that the NFL’s top three in rushing yards this year (Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart) were all first round picks. Five of the top six are actually first rounders (Todd Gurley, Chris Johnson). Seattle’s lynchpin (no pun intended) is also a former first round pick.

I wouldn’t a judge running back any differently to most other positions. If you believe a player can be a key impact player as a runner, a guy who can help you win games and if the grade matches up — there’s nothing wrong with an early pick. Gurley has shown in flashes his massive potential. The Vikings have no regrets over taking Peterson (and how Arizona wished they’d pulled the trigger in 2007). Sure, there’s going to be a Trent Richardson every now and again. Is that any different than Robert Griffin III flaring out? Or disappointing left tackle Jason Smith (remember him?) from 2009?

And while there have been star running backs drafted later on — the best cornerback on the NFL’s top-100 list from 2015 is a fifth round pick. The #3 player on the list was a quarterback taken in the sixth round. The second best receiver on the list (who really should’ve been the top ranked receiver) is a former sixth rounder. The four running backs in the top twenty were taken in the third, first, third and second round respectively.

Anyway, back to Henry…

I suspect Hatman saying he could be a fourth rounder is more a review of his overall stance on the running back position rather than the players actual stock. That said, I don’t think Henry will touch the first round.

He’s one of the more unique players you’ll ever see. Tall, long and massive — he’s listed at 6-3 and 242lbs. And yet it’s not power, trucking or tough yards you associate with him.

Henry’s best asset is his surprising ability to accelerate, explode through a crease and be a home-run hitter. He’s a great finisher in the open field capable of turning good runs into great runs. When he gets a head of steam he glides — and that’s when he’s really tough to stop. This season he had a 56-yard run against Wisconsin, a 55-yard run against Texas A&M and a 74-yarder against Mississippi State.

In short yardage situations he doesn’t project to be quite as productive. Henry’s length is actually an issue that takes away the benefit of his overall size. He offers a big target to hit and with long legs he’s easy to knock off balance. He’ll go down after a glancing blow. If you get to him before he’s into the second level, he can be ineffective. He’s not one for dragging defenders or getting an extra 2-3 yards with every run. He doesn’t always fall forward. He’s far from the power-back you’d expect at 242lbs. He’s more Shaun Alexander than Marshawn Lynch.

He also needs a lane. His vision and patience can be very good — but at that size he’s not a crazy cut-back runner who can plant and explode. Again, he’s better going through the gears and building up speed. And for that to happen he needs the space to move forward.

Henry might be an ideal fit for a team like Dallas that blocks pretty well and will offer opportunities to get into the second level. Zone blocking teams or teams (like Seattle) that prefer physical, competitive runners who get the tough yards aren’t likely to be lining up to draft him early.

I think he’ll go in round two, possibly to the Cowboys. It wouldn’t be a major shock though if he did just hang around a bit longer into the third.

Hatman isn’t the only one not enamoured with the idea of taking a running back early. It is a copycat league afterall. And while Gurley has had some success, Melvin Gordon has had a very disappointing first season in San Diego. At the same time undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls has been a major revelation and could yet make a case to be the offensive rookie of the year.

That could have some impact on the upcoming draft class, particularly with nobody as talented as Gurley eligible to declare (it’ll be a different story in 2017 when Leonard Fournette turns pro).

Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott has the best chance to go in the first frame. As one unnamed scout states: “Elliott can create on his own, (Henry) can’t.” A good team picking late in the first (Arizona?) could see the benefit in taking an impact player like Elliott very early. Even he might have to wait until the early stages of round two.

That could be good news for the Seahawks (and not because I think they’ll draft Elliott or Henry).

It seems almost inevitable that Marshawn Lynch will be moving on in the off-season. Jason La Canfora — a trusted and established source for Seahawks news — has suggested as much. The emergence of Rawls and Lynch’s massive $11.5m cap hit for 2016 makes it likely.

In theory the two players would create quite a two-headed monster for the Seahawks. Yet Lynch doesn’t strike you as the type of player to appreciate a new, lesser role in the closing stages of his career like Fred Jackson. As La Canfora notes, “He (Lynch) has been a challenging player to deal with at times.” It’s hard to imagine he’ll be any easier to handle if he’s only getting 10-12 carries a game. That situation might worsen if Rawls continues his prolific form and they find it harder to keep him off the field.

Is Lynch ever going to be effective in a committee approach? Surely his best quality is his ability to break tackles and wear down a defense over four quarters? He’s not really an impact player who will make big plays on a snap-count.

There was some feeling that a Lynch holdout in 2014 was somewhat inspired by quotes attributed to Darrell Bevell discussing a possible committee approach with Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. The Seahawks chose not to create a similar committee this year even during Rawls’ hot form. A week after he ran for 169 yards at Cincinnati and with Lynch back in the line-up he had just a single carry against Carolina. In the subsequent three games Rawls averaged four carries a week. Then Lynch had surgery and the rest is history.

The potential distraction caused by an unsatisfied Lynch, the enormous cap hit ($11.5m), the savings Seattle can make ($6.5m) and the dynamism and success of Rawls makes a possible parting of ways increasingly likely.

That would mean having to add another back at some point in the draft (or UDFA).

If the likes of Henry get pushed back, the next group of runners could also slide — providing great value in the middle rounds. Alex Collins has been a revelation for Arkansas — combining tough short-yardage runs with explosive grand slams. Utah’s Devontae Booker has his favourites and would add a complimentary slasher style to Rawls. UCLA’s Paul Perkins isn’t the biggest runner — but he’s incredibly tough to bring down, has a dynamite cut-back and could develop into a useful third-down specialist.

I’ve not been overly impressed with LA Tech’s Kenneth Dixon — although he has his admirers. Notre Dame’s converted wide out C.J. Prosise is considering his options. There’s also a whole host of other runners we’ve barely even looked at yet.

The Seahawks have shown they’re willing to consider drafting running backs in the middle section of the draft. Robert Turbin was a relatively early fourth round pick in 2012. They took Christine Michael in round two the following year. To be drafted that early by Seattle any runner is going to need to be as athletic as Michael. The third round compensatory selection they’re likely to receive in 2016 would be a similar slot to the range they drafted Turbin — who proved to be a solid if unspectacular #2 back. That could be the range where they ultimately target a value running mate for Rawls if Lynch does indeed move on in the off-season.

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