Author: Rob Staton (Page 326 of 423)

Chris Mortensen put a few interesting tweets out there tonight. He’s a reliable enough source to sit up and take notice.

Is Chance Warmack a top-13 lock? Maybe so:

You can always hope, won’t happen RT @ejmac1073: @mortreport @brandongenson I hope Warmack falls to the #Panthers

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 21, 2013

On Ryan Nassib at #8:

Growing belief around NFL it’s Nassib or trade down if they can RT @sabrefan0412: ANY. Idea which way the Bills are leaning at 8 ???

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 21, 2013

Jacksonville going offensive tackle? Could still be an option:

As @movethesticks noted, lot of personnel chatter about Jags taking OT Eric Fisher w 2nd pick;…real or setting bait for a trade?

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 21, 2013

Ziggy Ansah at #5 sounds likely:

If no Fisher or Joeckel, probably Ansah or trade if they can RT @puremaize:What do u think the lions will do at pk 5. Trade down or stay?

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 21, 2013

Cardinals to go offensive line? Seems obvious:

I’d say yes on Johnson or CooperRT @brandongenson:are Cardinals going after Lane Johnson? And if he’s taken, is Warmack an option?

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 21, 2013

The two big revelations come in the first two tweets. First, Warmack not being available at #14 is an eye opener. He’s good, don’t get me wrong. But if both he and Jonathan Cooper are expected to go early, where do they fit? I’m struggling to find two teams who might go guard in the top-13 before Carolina picks. Tennessee is one possible destination. Would the Jets do it? San Diego? Having assumed for a couple of weeks that Warmack might fall, it might be time to reconsider.

Secondly, Ryan Nassib at #8. It just seems too obvious. Miami re-connected a college coach with his quarterback at #8 last year. Will it happen again? I’m still sceptical. Yet it would be a very ‘Buffalo’ type move. And a mistake, in my opinion. Others are saying it’s a two-horse race between Nassib and Matt Barkley:

Nassib to the #Bills is the toast of draft rumor talk right now, but don’t forget about Barkley. They like him a lot, too. Two-horse race.

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) April 21, 2013

Trade official: Darrelle Revis passed physical. Bucs send 1st in 2013 and conditional 4th in 2014 that could be 3rd to Jets. More on ESPNews

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 21, 2013

John Idzik has seen it all before. A quarterback earning a boat load of guaranteed cash, sitting on the bench holding a clipboard. It’s not unusual.

In his final season in Seattle he was part of a front office that signed Matt Flynn and gave him $10m. In return, they got a backup. The reason? A much cheaper rookie quarterback was simply superior. Both in the short and long term, it made sense to take the financial hit and move on.

History could be about to repeat itself.

By trading Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a similar situation could be unfolding. The deal will give the Jets at least the #13 overall pick on Thursday to go with the #9 selection. The Jets also own the seventh pick in round two. That’s a veritable bounty for a franchise that needs to get better, younger and cheaper.

People are already suggesting the Jets could use their two first round picks on a pass rusher and a replacement cornerback. I don’t buy that. What was the big problem last year? It was the titanic white elephant of an offense  that destroyed any chance the Jets had to be competitive. They ended the year a laughing stock.

Part of this was down to the way they handled the quarterback position. The Tim Tebow experiment was a disaster, Tony Sparano was an odd choice to replace Brian Schottenheimer and the whole plan served only to undermine Mark Sanchez, who’d just been re-signed to a hopelessly flawed extension. They had no serviceable running back and a dearth of talent at receiver. It was a shambles.

If that team wants to get back to relevance, the offense has to be the starting point. Rex Ryan can put a defense on the field that is respectable. That’s why he’s even in New York. Everything points to an offensive rebuild in the draft.

There are two schools of thinking when it comes to Sanchez. Most people have written him off. Others believe he’s been harshly treated. After all, he’s had nothing to work with in New York. No talented pass catchers. No running game. Nevertheless, it’s time for the Jets to move on. Giving him one last chance will simply add to the soap-opera style drama we’ve seen with this franchise the last two years. The guy was booed mercilessly in the Knicks-Celtics playoff game last night when he appeared on the big screen. The same thing will happen every time he throws a bad pass or makes a basic error. It’s passed the point of no return. Rightly or wrongly, you can’t live with that kind of atmosphere.

The Jets won’t be able to move him until next year when he becomes a free agent. A guaranteed salary of $8.25m secures his place in New York for one more season. But that doesn’t stop the Jets spending a high pick on a quarterback. The cheap cost of a rookie makes it palatable to draft a replacement at #9, #13 or #39. Look at the salaries of the players drafted in those positions last year:

#9 Luke Kuechly — 4-years, $12.58m

#13 Michael Floyd — 4-years $9.97m

#39 Janoris Jenkins — 4-years, $4.99m

Kuechly’s cap hit as a rookie in 2012 was $2.285m. That’s the kind of cost the Jets will face if they draft Sanchez’s replacement with the #9 pick. It’d be even cheaper if they waited until #13 or the top of the second round.

This has to happen. And having made that choice, they need to start bringing in some skill players to support the new quarterback. So what kind of scenario could we see?

Buffalo are picking one place above the Jets at #8. Until we hear differently, I expect the Bills to draft a quarterback with that slot. It could be Geno Smith. It could be someone else. Right now, I actually think it’ll be Matt Barkley. It’s a hunch. A hunch that a few people have. Maybe it’ll prove to be misguided, but I suspect the Bills will be one of the handful of teams that look beyond the physical limitations and see an effective game manager that can start quickly. I don’t think it’ll be a great spot for Barkley, but I can see it happening.

If they do take Barkley in that slot, the Jets should take Geno Smith. I can’t see him going to Jacksonville, Oakland or Cleveland. New York will get a shot if Buffalo passes. And they should pull the trigger.

Rather than following that up with a pass rusher or any other defensive player, they should race back to the podium and take Tavon Austin at #13. Instantly Smith gets a receiver he’s familiar with. The Jets get a difference maker, a guy who can put points on the board and make chunk yardage. Basically, something they’ve not had for a long time.

Immediately, there’s some kind of plan on offense. A spark. They can move beyond the Sanchez era. The fans in New York aren’t used to patience, but rest assured they’ll be willing to stomach growing pains for a Smith-Austin combo much more than another year of watching Mark Sanchez.

At #39, I’d continue the trend. Go after a running back (Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, Montee Ball, Christine Michael). Keep building that offense. If Lacy’s there it should be a no brainer. Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Eddie Lacy. The Jets have an offense all of a sudden.

It basically comes down to these scenario’s for me:

If Geno Smith goes in the top eight — #9 Tavon Austin, #13 Jonathan Cooper/Chance Warmack, #39 Ryan Nassib/Matt Scott/Tyler Wilson

If Geno Smith is available — #9 Geno Smith, #13 Tavon Austin, #39 Eddie Lacy/Jonathan Franklin/Christine Michael

Sure, they’d still need a pass rusher in either scenario. They might have to coach someone up. And? Who’s to say a player like Corey Lemonier, Jamie Collins or John Simon wouldn’t be available in round three? There are still veteran pass rushers on the open market. They can also target cornerback replacements later, with Logan Ryan, Sanders Commings, Marc Anthony, Will Davis, Jordan Poyer and David Amerson providing plenty of mid-round depth in the secondary.

If they take Barkevious Mingo and D.J. Hayden at #9 and #13 they’ll be the same old Jets next year. That offense needs a revolution. Benching Sanchez and his gigantic guaranteed salary would be no different to the benching of Matt Flynn in Seattle. Costly, but necessary.

This is the most unpredictable draft I think we’ll see for a good few years. I suspect we’ll have the greatest disparity between teams on a pick-by-pick basis. And that’s leading to a lot of speculation.

There’s going to be very little consensus on a lot of these players and positional groups. There’s going to be a lot more picking for scheme or physical preference. And that’ll make virtually every pick unmissable this week.

It starts right at #1. I’m actually hoping we don’t see any leaks before Thursday. Contract negotiations usually begin in the week between the prospect likely to go first overall and the team picking in that spot. In every draft I’ve ever covered, we’ve known the guy going #1 weeks in advance. Not this year. It’d be pretty cool to see the top picked called out without the usual reveal before hand. We’ll see if that happens.

Tony Pauline is reporting today that some members of the Chiefs’ staff prefer Eric Fisher over Luke Joeckel. For me, Fisher has the higher ceiling. Yet he hasn’t faced anywhere near the same level of competition. Jason Smith had a similar amount of upside (#2 overall in 2009) and struggled to make the step up. Given the choice between the two, I go for Joeckel. Solid, dependable, you know what you’re going to get. He’s faced some of the best pass rushers in college football (SEC and Big-12) and excelled.

Bob McGinn’s pieces are fairly interesting, quoting scouts and usually complaining about every prospect under the sun.

The piece I’ve linked to above is basically yet another bashing of the quarterback market. I’ll say this — don’t assume Geno Smith is the first quarterback off the board. When we’re talking about personal preference, this is the position where it matters the most.

A case in point… from what I am led to believe (take that for what it’s worth) a lot of teams would’ve drafted Blaine Gabbert #1 overall in 2011 over Cam Newton (at least those who desperately needed a quarterback). I also believe one of the teams who preferred Gabbert over Newton was Seattle. With hindsight, nobody would second-guess Carolina’s pick. Yet in many other scenarios, Gabbert goes #1 two years ago.

In the same draft, Tennessee took Jake Locker #8 overall when a lot of other teams had him ranked way down in the mid-round range. I believe Washington would’ve loved to get Locker at #10, but rejected the chance to draft Gabbert as an alternative. And Minnesota liked the class enough to tick guys off and still take Christian Ponder at #12 — a player others didn’t rate anywhere near as highly.

That doesn’t mean this will happen all over again and we’ll see a host of quarterbacks flying off the board. But don’t be surprised if the order in which the quarterbacks are drafted contradicts what we’ve been hearing in the media for the last few weeks.

More than half the league might rank Matt Barkley in round two or lower. And he might still be a top ten pick on Thursday. He could be Buffalo’s guy. Do not be shocked. Yeah the cold weather. Blah blah. Ryan Nassib used to play for Doug Marrone. It’s a fair point. Some teams — and I include the Bills here — are going to see value in Barkley. His ability to start quickly, be an intelligent leader from the get-go and facilitate the playmakers in Buffalo. He’ll need more at receiver, but there will be options in round two and three. The Bills can become competitive in the AFC East quickly with solid quarterback play. I can see this happening.

Geno Smith might be the consensus top quarterback as McGinn’s study reports, but he might go lower than expected — just like Gabbert. And players like Nassib and E.J. Manuel — despite having limited ability on tape — might also find they go earlier than we expect, in the same way Ponder did two years ago.

Pick your poison. That’s what teams do. And if you think you’ve found the guy you can win with, you’re not worrying about a talking head in the media saying that same guy is a ‘fourth round pick’ or whatever silliness we’ve heard this off-season.

On defense, Tank Carradine had his work out today, as he continues to return from an ACL injury. Chris Mortensen has the details…

Florida St DE Tank Carradine, 135 days post-ACL surgery after 11 sack yr, had good private workout for teams: 4.75-4.85 in 40 at 273 lbs

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 20, 2013

Other people have suggested he ran in the 4.9’s. There are mixed reports out there.

I’m not a huge fan of Carradine, unlike some others. He might prove to be one of those players who just has a natural knack of getting to the quarterback. Maybe. Yet I think he has a lot of ‘easy’ sacks on tape and I’m always sceptical of pass rushers out of Florida State. I’m not sure he or Bjoern Werner will go on to have great careers in the NFL.

Carradine tries to swipe away blockers and side step to the edge. He doesn’t mix it up or use a great speed rush and his hand-use could be better. I’d challenge my tackle to let him dip inside and run into traffic. Show him the inside route to the quarterback. I don’t think he has the speed to capitalise on that and could end up looking pretty pedestrian if you take away his swipe move. He doesn’t explode out of the blocks. He has got a good motor though and prototype size.

My top three at #56 remain the same for now:

1. Khaseem Greene

2. Quinton Patton

3. Christine Michael

However, this is assuming there’s going to be a rush on offensive and defensive tackles, limiting the options for Seattle. I’m going to re-watch some Sio Moore tape tonight. Of course, you never know who might fall or what the Seahawks are planning. I could just as easily see them going for a Vance McDonald — athletic, out-there, Seahawky. Only a few more days to wait and find out.

I still have a hunch about this guy...

I might do this a couple of times before next week, but I just woke up today and wanted to change my mock. So I did. And here it is minus the graphics:

#1 Kansas City – Luke Joeckel
#2 Jacksonville – Dion Jordan
#3 Oakland – Sharrif Floyd
#4 Philadelphia – Eric Fisher
#5 Detroit – Lane Johnson
#6 Cleveland – Dee Milliner
#7 Arizona – D.J. Fluker
#8 Buffalo – Matt Barkley
#9 New York Jets – Tavon Austin
#10 Tennessee – Jonathan Cooper
#11 San Diego – Star Lotulelei
#12 Miami – Ziggy Ansah
#13 New York Jets – Geno Smith
#14 Carolina – Sheldon Richardson
#15 New Orleans – Barkevious Mingo
#16 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro
#17 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones
#18 Dallas – Chance Warmack
#19 New York Giants – Datone Jones
#20 Chicago – Tyler Eifert
#21 Cincinnati – Alec Ogletree
#22 St. Louis Justin Pugh
#23 Minnesota – Bjoern Werner
#24 Indianapolis – Desmond Trufant
#25 Minnesota – Manti Te’o
#26 Green Bay – Jesse Williams
#27 Houston – Robert Woods
#28 Denver – Sly Williams
#29 New England – Arthur Brown
#30 Atlanta – D.J. Hayden
#31 San Francisco – Matt Elam
#32 Baltimore – Margus Hunt

So yeah, that’s a offensive lineman going early. Part of this thought is based on what Tony Pauline reported last night. Part of it is me wondering why Miami are suddenly being aggressive in pursuit of Brandon Albert. One logical reason is if they don’t even think they can secure D.J. Fluker (the fourth best tackle apparently) without moving up, why not spend one of those two second round picks on Albert? That makes sense. Trading up likely costs them one of those picks anyway if they want to get into the top 5-6. It could be the reason they’re looking into that deal with a little more aggression all of a sudden.

Here’s a version containing a handful of trades (traded picks are in bold):

#1 Kansas City – Luke Joeckel
#2 Jacksonville – Dion Jordan
#3 Oakland – Sharrif Floyd
#4 Philadelphia – Eric Fisher
#5 Detroit – Lane Johnson
#6 Atlanta (from Cleveland) – Dee Milliner
#7 Arizona – D.J. Fluker
#8 Buffalo – Matt Barkley
#9 New York Jets – Tavon Austin
#10 Tennessee – Jonathan Cooper
#11 San Diego – Star Lotulelei
#12 Dallas (from Miami) – Sheldon Richardson
#13 New York Jets – Geno Smith
#14 Carolina – D.J. Hayden
#15 New Orleans – Ziggy Ansah
#16 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro
#17 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones
#18 Miami – Tyler Eifert
#19 New York Giants – Datone Jones
#20 Chicago – Chance Warmack
#21 Indianapolis (from Cincinnati) – Desmond Trufant
#22 St. Louis Justin Pugh
#23 Minnesota – Bjoern Werner
#24 Cincinnati – Alec Ogletree
#25 Minnesota – Manti Te’o
#26 Green Bay – Jesse Williams
#27 Houston – Robert Woods
#28 Denver – Sly Williams
#29 New England – Arthur Brown
#30 Cleveland – Blidi Wreh-Wilson
#31 San Francisco – Matt Elam
#32 Philadelphia (from Baltimore) – E.J. Manuel

In terms of Seattle, I’m still struggling to identify the defensive tackle who would interest them at #56. I really can’t find that guy. I’m not sold they’ll take Kawann Short if he’s there. They want length, size, run stopping abilities. Who is that? I think it’s going to be a struggle to see them target this particular need in round two. Short, Brandon Williams, John Jenkins — I’m not sure any of that trio will fit the bill in terms of what they’re looking for.

The two players I keep coming back to — for now — are Quinton Patton and Khaseem Greene. I think personality wise they fit like a glove. They’re both ultra competitive types who will light up a meeting room. Greene takes the field immediately and would quickly establish himself as a leader on the defense. Patton would be forward planning, albeit not an immediate need. Neither is a brilliant, dynamic athlete. However, we can get caught up a little bit too much with that sometimes. First and foremost I sense the Seahawks want competitive players who will ’tilt the field’. And it’s not like these two are lethargic sloth’s who sail around the field at a snails pace. Patton has certainly grown on me the more tape I’ve watched. He’s not an incredibly consistent production machine, but he’s got a spark to his game. A playmaking spark.

(Update) I’ve just watched the Utah State vs Louisiana Tech game from last year to watch Patton again. Will Davis the corner at Utah State did as good a job covering him as anyone I’ve seen so far. I’ve not watched any of his game’s specifically. That’s a guy I need to look at before next week. He’s from Spokane, too.

I can see a situation where a lot of other guys leave the board and Christine Michael becomes a greater option. I suspect they’d like to stock pile running backs. The offense will continue to feature the run prominently. At USC Pete Carroll found a way to do that by bringing in 5-star recruits and letting them share snaps. I could be wrong, but that might be an idea they return to in Seattle. Marshawn Lynch is an elite runner, but he won’t last very long under his current heavy workload. If the right player was available, I think they’d take him and feel pretty happy about it.

I also think they’ll look at the offensive line and it really depends who’s there. We might see a bit of a run on the group in the early second round. Kyle Long, Terron Armstead, Menelik Watson. If they go early, it maybe limits the options that fall to #56. They might feel like they can get some tackle depth later on with players like Luke Marquardt, Brennan Williams or Jordan Mills. Or who knows, maybe another defensive tackle from NC State they can convert to the offense?

I agree with those suggesting there’s likely to be a quick run on cornerbacks and running backs in round two. It seems like almost a formality based on the needs of teams picking in the first quarter of day two.

The Seahawks re-signed Steven Hauschka today. That perhaps makes it less likely they add a kicker in the draft.

And what about later on for Seattle? Jayson Dimanche is an intriguing prospect based on the video below. Remember – this is a highlight session and not tape. It’s also against a certain level of competition. But he gives off a ‘Seahawks’ vibe. One to monitor, perhaps…

Charles Brown was on Seattle's radar in 2010

This time next week = draft day. Yay for that.

John Schneider held a press conference yesterday to discuss the Antoine Winfield signing and look ahead to next week. Understandably he gave little away regarding this years draft. He did say it was unlikely the team would trade back into the first round and he didn’t give off a vibe that suggested he’d move up at all. He also played down talk of the team having fewer needs this year and how that would impact the way the team is approaching the draft.

The most interesting nugget of information was the talk of 2010. Schneider admitted they went into that first draft in Seattle with a little anxiety. They needed to get a left tackle, but were unsure who they would land. He name-checked Trent Williams, Russell Okung and Charles Brown.

I found the Brown mention interesting and re-assuring. A former USC tackle, he looked like an ideal fit for the Alex Gibbs zone blocking scheme. Tall, athletic, strong in pass protection and keen to get to the second level. I watched many USC games trying to get an angle on the guy and gave him a top-15 grade in the end. There weren’t many players I enjoyed watching more than Charles Brown in 2010.

Both myself and Kip had been given the nod by a little birdie that the team wanted to come out of the 2010 draft with a starting safety and a left tackle. I’m led to believe that at one point there was a feeling Trent Williams could be available at #14 — possibly allowing the team to target Eric Berry at #6. Williams wasn’t considered a top-five lock until the combine. He significantly boosted his stock in Indianapolis and never really looked back. That kind of ended any chance he would come to Seattle and he was subsequently drafted fourth overall by Washington.

In my final 2010 mock draft, I decided to give the Seahawks Berry at #6 and Charles Brown at #14. I’d not heard anything linking Brown to Seattle, but felt based on scheme it would be a smart fit. Especially if they wanted to get the safety first.

When Brown dropped deep into the second round (#64 overall to New Orleans) I was a little surprised, but more cursing my own apparent poor judgement that he could be a first round alternative in Seattle. Then it was revealed he’d got some lingering injury concerns that provoked the fall. So at least there was that.

Hearing yesterday that he was on the teams radar was reassuring (and yes, I appreciate how self-indulgent this article is to this point).

He might not have necessarily been an option at #14, but then Schneider has touched on the chance they had to move down in round one. Things worked out perfectly for Seattle in that they got their tackle (Okung) and safety (Earl Thomas) and both players have since featured at the Pro-Bowl. It’s fun to consider the alternative scenario though. Had Kansas City passed on Eric Berry, he could easily have been the pick at #6. His talent factor would’ve probably won-out over going tackle at that spot. And that could’ve put Brown on the map, even if his NFL career so far has been pretty stop-start.

Schneider has been pretty forthcoming in discussing previous drafts recently. It wasn’t that long ago he name-checked Jabaal Sheard and Andy Dalton as alternative options with the #25 pick in 2011.

Looking back now, could you imagine a Seahawks roster with Dalton under center, Charles Brown at left tackle, Berry and not Thomas in the secondary and a couple of other tweaks here and there. It’s far from a ridiculous scenario.

Some other headlines from the press conference:

– No real news on Chris Clemons yet. Schneider described him as a fast healer, but says the PUP list is still an option.

– Schneider called James Carpenter the “strongest” player on the roster and says confidence is a key factor for the former first round pick as he recovers from another injury setback.

– Brady Quinn is described as a “football junkie”. The Seahawks feel he’ll work well with Russell Wilson.

– Schneider says they don’t go best player available if current projected starters force the board in a different direction. Essentially, it’s a more scientific way of saying that sometimes ‘need’ has an impact on the way things shape out. A lot of teams gives their own players grades and then match it up to the draft board to see where they can make the greatest improvements.

In other news…

It appears Miami are trying to get a trade done with Kansas City for Branden Albert. Once again, the Dolphins front office makes a completely baffling move. They let Jake Long walk because they didn’t want to pay him, and will now have to pay Albert the same (if not more) all while coughing up a second round pick.

There’s a reason why some franchises are perennial struggler’s. Hey, Albert’s not a bad tackle. I just think you’ve got an opportunity to spend three early picks and nail down your left tackle to the long term. Instead, you throw money at a one-dimensional receiver in Mike Wallace and two linebackers. You franchise tag Randy Starks. And you let Long sign in St. Louis. Now you have to scramble around to get Albert with one of those high picks instead of rebuilding the secondary.

There doesn’t appear to be much of a thought process in Miami. Kind of like someone shouts out, “Let’s do this!” and everyone dances a jig. The New England Patriots must sit there every year, look at the rest of their division and let out an enormous belly laugh.

Mike Mayock did a conference call today where he expressed the opinion that Geno Smith would be a poor fit in Buffalo. He was talking strictly about the weather, a view which I’m not a huge fan of. Even after his neck injury, Peyton Manning didn’t appear to suffer any kind of drop off playing in Denver compared to the indoor facilities in Indianapolis. But then I guess he is Peyton Manning.

Even so, it makes you consider the possibility of Smith falling past the #8 pick.

Would the New York Jets double up with the West Virginia quarterback and his former wide-out Tavon Austin? Assuming they complete a trade with Tampa Bay for Darrelle Revis. I’d be more tempted to go after Stedman Bailey later on – a player who went to high school with Smith and shared a lot of chemistry at WVU.

If Geno falls beyond the top ten he could sink like a stone. It could help trigger a quarterback rush in the late first and early second. That wouldn’t be such a bad thing for Seattle, as it increases the chances of other players falling to #56.

A report surfaced recently suggesting a hotel room belonging to two players at the combine had been trashed. Adam Schefter is reporting today that the room belonged to receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Mark Harrison.

The NFL has managed to keep the wonderlic scores under wraps for the most part this off-season. However, that has been one leak today. Tavon Austin apparently scored a 7 on the test.

Oh look! Jay Cutler with a moustache

I’ll be honest, I’ve been pretty surprised by some of the comments I’ve read on the blog this week.

I kind of feel like there’s been a re-writing of history. As the Seahawks have succeeded in building a terrific young roster, we’ve also discovered quite a substantial revelation. Some people knew it all along.

No crystal ball. No message imprinted on the morning toast. No signal from the gods. Just pure, footballing brilliance.

I had to delete the following comment — which is a shame, given the author is quite clearly a genius: “I advocated for the Seahawks to draft him and after the draft, I stated *for a fact* that Russell Wilson would be our starting quarterback and would most probably be our starting quarterback for the next ten or fifteen years.”

It’s funny that I didn’t recall that message twelve months ago. A lot of people liked Russell Wilson. Perhaps none more so than our very own Kip Earlywine. In fact if you’re ever thinking of running for president, Russell, you might want to see if Kip will run your campaign. He’d do a good job if last year was anything to go by.

Yet I think it’s fair to say most others shared my slightly different opinion. I saw Wilson’s height as an issue and I couldn’t see beyond that. It was a titanic error on my behalf, yet an understandable one. I was blinkered by conventional wisdom, unwilling to think outside of set guidelines as to what does and doesn’t work in the NFL. I was one of those old farts in the film ‘Moneyball’ telling Brad Pitt how to do his job in the war room.

It’s why I wrote this piece in August, laying out why I’d got it wrong on Wilson. I made the following statement after the Kansas City pre-season game:

“As good as Kip looks because of his sound judgement, I’m not afraid to admit I didn’t do a good enough job looking at Wilson. We published some tape, broke it down and I answered the occasional question, but he clearly warranted more than that. We’ve seen that in pre-season and in two weeks time he could be a starting NFL quarterback. It’s not so much missing on a player because you can’t expect to get them all right, but having dedicated so much time to the quarterback position in general… Wilson deserved more time.”

I think it’d be fair to say a lot of fans probably share that sentiment in hindsight. The height factor was such a turn-off, we all literally turned off.

Thankfully, there are people in our midst to remind us that they knew all along Wilson would be fantastic (see anonymous commenter above). We should celebrate that fact. They are clearly really great individuals when it comes to the old football analysis.

Sarcasm aside, there is a wider point to this piece. I feel like we’ve begun to talk in very ‘matter of fact’ terms. I’ve seen a lot of comments where people have stated a certain player “won’t” be drafted. Funnily enough, the guy who was so bold to tell us he’d always known Wilson would be a roaring success also posted on the same day, “There is no way in God’s green earth that the Seahawks will select Christine Michael – and that’s a fact, whether you like it or not.”

I’ve been very careful this year not to rule anything out, and rule very little in. I’ve written more about what I think the need area’s are and tried to study up on the scheme. Of course, ignoring Wilson wasn’t the only error I made last year. I’d received some information from a trusted and proven source suggesting certain players were popular within the front office. I threw my lot in with one particular player and when he fell to the early second round, my decision was rightly questioned.

Yet when I look back to last year (and 2011 for that matter) I remembered how surprised I was — stunned even — when I heard, “With the 15th pick in the 2012 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Bruce Irvin.” The same source that had given us the names told us it would be a pass rusher in round one. It was a foregone conclusion. And yet the name still shocked me, even if he was indeed a pass rusher. Irvin very specifically fit Pete Carroll’s off-season desire to improve speed within the front seven. The pick was staring at us right in the face and still drew gasps on the day.

Likewise I was surprised to hear Wilson’s name so early, although with hindsight that could be the greatest draft pick ever made by a front office in Seattle. But to most fans, it was a shock. An intriguing shock.

James Carpenter was also a surprise at the time, even if some of us (hey, I’ve pointed enough things out that I got wrong) had Carpenter posted as a top-25 selection throughout the process.

As Seattle’s picks have become proven commodities, there’s maybe a tendency to look back with hindsight and feel those picks weren’t so shocking after all. Simply because they were justified. I think that’d be inaccurate. A re-writing of history. They were surprising and unpredictable to anyone outside of a NFL front office. They’ve just proven to be less of a gamble than we initially thought.

So I guess what I’m trying to say here is, let’s keep an open mind. Anything could happen next week. Regular visitors will know how tedious I find the endless discussions about Tyrann Mathieu. Yet I accept it’s not implausible he’ll go much earlier than I expect, possibly even to Seattle. I think we could see a complete unknown drafted at #56. I think we could see a household name fall to the Seahawks. I think we could see moves up or down the board, or even further trades for veteran players.

Whatever does happen, I expect to be surprised. Again. This will be the fourth draft under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Even though they’ve gone after fairly obvious needs every year, they’ve still managed to do it in their own little way. The only guaranteed thing next week is whatever they do won’t be boring. Or predictable. It’ll just be very Seahawky.

Man these Seahawks got a boy wanted to go throw some pads on right now…solid team and great people… All business!

— Christine Michael (@Cmike33) April 15, 2013

Me and Earl Thomas 409 bmt golden triangle … twitter.com/Cmike33/status…

— Christine Michael (@Cmike33) April 15, 2013

SEAHAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

— Christine Michael (@Cmike33) April 15, 2013

Christine Michael is an interesting case. He could easily be a second round pick based on talent. He’s been talked about as such during the off-season. He turned up at the East/West Shrine game and stuck out like a sore thumb. He dominated, looking like he didn’t belong at the game. Observer’s seemed to be impressed with his combine too, where he ran a 4.54 at 220lbs. He also had the best vertical jump (43 inches) ever recorded by a running back.

Count Mike Mayock as a fan:

“His talent is crazy. … I have trouble seeing him getting out of the second round just because his physical traits are so good.”

Then there are the reasons why he might fall. His season ended early in 2010 due to a broken leg and he picked up an ACL in 2011. When he eventually returned in 2012, he quickly worked his way into Kevin Sumlin’s doghouse. He was suspended for the SMU game for violating team rules and was ejected from another for punching an opponent. It’s safe to say coach and player never saw eye-to-eye.

And if that wasn’t enough, he overslept at the combine and missed two meetings with teams.

Despite all of that, he’s still a 220lbs runner with nice cut back ability, lateral agility, vision and balance. One of my favourite players in the league is Chris Ivory. If I was the St. Louis Rams, I’d be trying to work on a trade to get him out of New Orleans where he’s sorely underused. Michael’s running style reminds me a little of Ivory’s and for that reason, I’m a fan.

The Seahawks might not consider drafting Michael early. He might be considered a value gamble later on. However, he’s someone to keep an eye on next week. It stands to reason that they will add a running back at some point and Carroll regularly stockpiled talent at the position in SoCal. Take a look for yourself (tape below) and let me know what you think.

You can also hear a Sirius interview with John Schneider conducted today by clicking here.

#77 Luke Marquardt - possible Seahawks draft pick?

A lot of people have been using the comments section to post their seven-round Seahawks mock drafts this week. I thought I’d chime in with my own here. I’ve tried to mix in scheme fit, reported interest, official visits and hunches.

Round two – pick #56 – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)

Reports have suggested the Seahawks have been tracking Patton for some time. He’s a talkative character and even suggested he’d like to be the next Chad Johnson in a recent interview. However, it’s a deceptive comparison. Patton is an articulate, well spoken individual who doesn’t give off a ‘me-first’ vibe. He doesn’t look or sound like a distraction or headache. You can never have enough good wide receivers and Green Bay regularly re-tooled in this kind of range. Golden Tate is a free agent in 2014 while Sidney Rice’s contract will become an issue sooner rather than later.

Round three – pick #87 – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)

Robinson played quarterback at Michigan and worked out for teams at receiver, cornerback and kick returner this off-season. However, for me his best position will always be running back. Yes, he will need to get a grip on protections. He’ll need to learn to block if he has any hope of ever being an effective back. But everything else about him screams playmaker at the position. He’s 5-10, 199lbs and runs a 4.43. The Seahawks don’t have a #3 running back at the moment or anyone you’d use in relief for Percy Harvin returning kicks. I like the idea of the Robinson project.

Round four – pick #123 – Montori Hughes (DT, Tennessee-Martin)

There’s a lot of off-field red flags with Hughes and that could force him down the board. He matches the kind of size the Seahawks appear to like at defensive tackle. He’s 6-4 and 329lbs. He’s hard to move even with double team blocks and he has plus mobility for his size. He’s not much of a pass rusher but the Seahawks don’t appear to be to be looking for an orthodox three technique. He would offer further depth to the interior. Needs to improve his hand-use.

Round five – pick #138 – Luke Marquardt (T, Azusa Pacific)

Enormous 6-8 tackle with +34 inch arms. Comes from the same school as Christian Okoye — the only other previous NFL draft pick out of Azusa Pacific. In five years he added 100lbs to switch from basketball to left tackle. He missed the entire 2012 season due to a navicular fracture and he may need a further procedure to fully repair the injury. It’s likely to have an adverse effect on his stock. I’ve seen some people project him in the round 3/4 range, others have him as a round seven-UDFA type. Nevertheless, he has an intriguing skill set and the size Seattle looks for at tackle.

Round five – pick #158 – Zaviar Gooden (LB, Missouri)

I wasn’t blown away watching tape of Gooden. Despite the incredible speed and athleticism he flashed at the combine, I struggled to consider him much more than a later round project. I think it’s going to take a team that truly values speed to take him in this range. That’s where the Seahawks come in. I suspect Pete Carroll feels they can keep adding competition for the WILL rather than necessarily needing to for an early pick at the position. He’s talked about USC’s reputation as ‘linebacker-U’ during his time in SoCal, but he admitted he wanted to be known for the quality of the teams cornerbacks instead. If Khaseem Greene is there in round two, maybe they bite. If not, expect someone like Gooden later on to compete with Malcolm Smith et al.

Round six – pick #194 – Stefan Charles (DT, Regina)

He’s had an official visit with the Seahawks. Canadian prospect who’s been touted as a possible mid-rounder. I’m not totally convinced he’ll go quite that early but then it’s impossible to judge without being there for the work outs and comparing him to what else is available. Akiem Hicks went to the same school and ended up being a third round pick last year. We’ll see if Charles also goes that early.

Round seven – pick #214 – Dustin Hopkins (K, Florida State)

Seattle’s lack of urgency over the position suggests there’s a couple of guys they like in this draft. Perhaps they go even earlier to address this need? Dustin Hopkins is the NCAA FBS all-time kick scorer and had a productive career with the Seminoles. He has a strong enough leg to kick beyond 50-yards. With a couple of rookies coming into the league last year and having success (Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein), the Seahawks might be prepared to follow suite.

Round seven – pick #220 – Jeremy Wright (RB, Louisville)

The video above is a Khaseem Greene tape, but Wright is the running back used by Louisville in most of the snaps. The Seahawks have reportedly shown some interest in the player. He was a surprise addition to the draft, having graduated and chosen at the last minute not to enrol for 2013. Nobody knew he intended to turn pro. Seattle is likely to add some competition to the running back position in camp, even if they take a guy like Denard Robinson early.

Round seven – pick #231 – Michael Williams (TE, Alabama)

More of a blocking tight end who had a productive role in Alabama’s dominating ground game. He showed flashes of receiving potential at the Senior Bowl, including a nice touchdown grab from an E.J. Manuel pass. At 6-6 and 269lbs he’s a big guy who could earn some special teams duties. He’s not going to be the next great receiving tight end, but he’d offer something a little bit different to Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy and Cameron Morrah.

Round seven – pick #241 – Russell Shepard (WR, LSU)

The Seahawks love a project (see: J.R. Sweezy). There’s been some talk of Shepard potentially switching to cornerback and he’s taken an official visit with the the team. It’s impossible to say how these things might work out but when you get to this stage in the draft, why not take a chance? This is the first of Seattle’s two compensatory picks.

Round seven – pick #242 – B.J. Daniels (QB, USF)

Daniels had a mixed time in college, but there is something intriguing about him. The Seahawks clearly agree, given he made an official visit a few days ago. Whether or not he gets drafted remains to be seen, but Seattle is likely to bring in at least one more quarterback for training camp.

Seahawks fans have called for a new slot corner. Seahawks fans have got a new slot corner.

Antoine Winfield has agreed a one-year contract to come to Seattle, ending an eight-year term with the Minnesota Vikings. A former #23 overall pick by Buffalo in 1999, Winfield turns 36 on June 24th.

So when’s the last time a player moved to Seattle to try and get an elusive ring?

The Seahawks already had a fearsome secondary with great depth at corner. Now they have one of the best slot corner’s in the league on a one-year rental. As we’ve discussed on this blog many times, playing in the slot is a thankless task. Very few corner’s succeed. After all, you’re left to cover a selection of elite tight ends and receivers like Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. One of the main reasons Marcus Trufant remained in the slot all year was due to his experience. It’s not an easy role for a rookie or even sophomore corner to walk into.

Winfield had three interceptions in 2012 plus 12 passes defended (a career high). He’ll take over from Trufant (who deserves credit for his career in Seattle).

It answers another question. With the draft less than two weeks away, defensive tackle, linebacker and offensive tackle appear to be the most likely early targets. The Seahawks still need to add more competition to the WILL position. Cheap depth at tackle is expected. They really need another interior defensive lineman.

Overall though my only concern for Seattle remains the pass rush. Not because of the personnel, because the team made some bold moves this off-season. It’s really the scheme. Last year the team was again relying totally on Chris Clemons for pressure in base defense. And despite playing three big guys on early downs, the run defense gradually deteriorated as the year went on.

Jason Jones acted as a specialist three-technique on passing downs, but the addition of that chess piece didn’t get the team off the field much. Neither did the drafting of Bruce Irvin. It seemed to me the scheme was drawn up to limit the run early and then attack. And it didn’t work out like that.

I suspect they will persist with the base scheme and ideology, while hoping Avril takes up the slack left by Clemons. They’ll hope Bennett can be more effective than Jones. They’ll hope Irvin can take another step forward. I think they’ll draft another big tackle to replace Alan Branch, rather than a natural three-technique. Yet whether as a cumulative the scheme will create a beastly pass rush and fierce run defense to go with every other aspect of the roster, I’m still not sure.