Author: Rob Staton (Page 50 of 424)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Friday draft notes: J.J. McCarthy, Seattle’s approach at center and why trading down seems likely

February 16, 2024 /

Why J.J. McCarthy could be a high first round pick

McCarthy was an underwhelming watch on tape and it was hard to understand the first round buzz. Things became clearer this week.

Lance Zierlein tweeted about completion percentage among the draft class when scrambling:

This was interesting data but I wanted more information on third downs so went digging in the hope Lance might have the info. A few weeks ago I had a chance to speak with an incredibly well respected personnel man in the NFL and asked him about quarterback scouting. He said he would watch every third down throw a quarterback makes in college, then decide whether he wanted to watch any more. Whether you agree with that approach or not, it showed how much importance some scouts place on the ‘money downs’.

A Vikings fan named Nicholas Miller replied to my request with the following information that he had collated:

So there you go. McCarthy’s first down conversion percentage on third and 7 or longer is an astonishing 55.1%. None of the other big name quarterbacks in the draft can even get their percentage into the 40% range, let alone the 50’s.

Nicholas then shared data he had for ‘on target throws on 3rd and 4th down’:

When throwing past the sticks on 3rd or 4th down with +5 yards to go, Jayden Daniels has the best percentage (68.8%) followed by Bo Nix (65%) and McCarthy (64.7%). The others are some distance behind. However, when you refine the data to dropback passes only, McCarthy is well in front with a 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

When you then consider what Lance shared about production when scrambling, it paints an interesting picture. Being able to escape pressure, extend plays and throw on the run is such an important part of the modern game. McCarthy’s completion percentage on the run (71.4%) is again way beyond what anyone else achieved. Bo Nix is a distant second on 58.6% while Michael Penix Jr is all the way back at 23.3%.

If teams place a lot of emphasis on third downs and being able to create off script, the fact that McCarthy dominates in these two areas is telling. With many teams incorporating analytics and data into their scouting departments, it won’t be a surprise if several draft rooms have McCarthy rated very highly.

I’m not convinced it will carry quite the weight in Seattle. John Schneider seems to like a big arm to be able to drive the ball downfield and make explosive plays. McCarthy ranked 27th in college football last year for ‘big time throws’ (20). He doesn’t have a big arm and there are occasions on tape where his deeper throws fade at the end. He also has a slight frame and needs to add weight/strength.

However, I do think some teams — possibly the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders and Saints — could ensure McCarthy doesn’t even get to #16. It won’t be a surprise if the data here moves him into the top-10, with teams possibly preferring his style over Drake Maye — who was more erratic at North Carolina and didn’t perform as well on scrambles or third downs.

Some other interesting stats

Completion percentage when scrambling and third down conversions aren’t the only thing worth noting, of course. Play action is critical. Here’s how PFF graded the big name quarterbacks on play-action last season:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 93.1
Jayden Daniels — 92.7
Drake Maye — 86.4
J.J. McCarthy — 86.3
Bo Nix — 83.4
Spencer Rattler — 81.3
Caleb Williams — 70.8

Here are the number of ‘big time throws’ PFF charted off play-action:

Michael Penix Jr (#2 in the NCAA) — 18
Drake Maye — 7
J.J. McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 6
Jayden Daniels — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Spencer Rattler — 3

This is quite a significant feather in Penix Jr’s cap if you want to run a lot of play-action. He’s clearly very good at it — receiving the highest grades on an individual level while also making almost three times more explosive plays off play-action than any of the other big name quarterbacks. I do think ‘big time throws’ are something the Seahawks will pay attention to, so here’s generally how PFF charted the overall number of BTT’s in 2023:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 43
Drake Maye — 34
Jayden Daniels — 29
Caleb Williams — 27
J.J. McCarthy — 20
Bo Nix — 20
Spencer Rattler — 12

Finally, here are the stats for ‘turnover worthy plays’:

Bo Nix — 5 (led the NCAA)
Jayden Daniels — 7
Drake Maye — 10
Spencer Rattler — 11
J.J. McCarthy — 11
Michael Penix Jr — 12
Caleb Williams — 18

What are the Seahawks looking for at center?

I went back and re-watched Jackson Powers-Johnson this week after a highly regarded Senior Bowl. I thought his time in Mobile was more mixed than originally thought and there are some slight concerns that also show up on tape. He doesn’t fire his hands as quick as you’d like, his frame is quite stocky and his movements initially can be quite stilted. He’s best wrestling and brawling on contact but I’m not sure he gets his angles right at the start of the play consistently enough.

I also started to wonder what type of center the Seahawks might actually want.

Powers-Johnson is 6-3 and 334lbs. Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff had Parker Brailsford at Washington last season and he’s 6-2 and approximately 280lbs. In 2022, Corey Luciano (6-3, 307lbs) started at center for UW. The Seahawks have used Evan Brown (6-2, 302lbs) and Austin Blythe (6-2, 298lbs). In Baltimore, Tyler Linderbaum has started the last two years and he’s 6-2 and 296lbs.

Brown, Blythe, Luciano and Linderbaum all ran excellent short shuttles and you’d expect the same of Brailsford.

Whether it’s John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Grubb or Huff — they’ve all worked for a team with a center carrying a certain profile.

It does seem like there’s some consistency here to value leverage and agility rather than size. There are players in this class who could fit the profile with the required size/leverage advantages — Zach Frazier or Charles Turner for example. We’d need to see their testing numbers though. I think NC State’s Dylan McMahon is a key name to watch because he is definitely very athletic.

Olu Oluwatimi is also 6-2 and 309lbs so he also fits the leverage approach at the position. Maybe they’ll switch things up this year and go in a different direction but there’s enough evidence to think the Seahawks have a type and it isn’t a big, heavy, powerful center. It’s something to remember during this process.

In terms of defensive linemen, here’s something else to consider from Jeff Simmons:

Why trading down feels very likely for the Seahawks

You obviously need two to tango and any move down from #16 will require a trade partner. However, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks won’t at least try to trade down in round one.

The meat of this class is going to be day two, stretching into round four. There’s so much value there — and at positions the Seahawks have needs. There are a host of intriguing interior offensive linemen — Zak Zinter and Cooper Beebe look like plug-and-play high-performing guards but there’s serious depth behind them with the likes of Christian Haynes, Jordan Morgan, Brandon Coleman and Dominick Puni. I have Graham Barton, Jackson, Powers-Johnson, Sedrick Van Pran, Charles Turner, Zach Frazier and Dylan McMahon all graded for day two at center.

It’s a good range for defensive tackles too. T’Vondre Sweat, McKinley Jackson, Tyler Davis, Kris Jenkins, Michael Hall Jr and Braden Fiske should all find a home on day two.

Linebacker, currently, looks like a big need. Day two is where you’ll likely find Payton Wilson, Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper, Cedric Gray, Junior Colson and Curtis Jacobs — while I think Nathaniel Watson is also worth considering in this range but could last into day three.

I’m a huge fan of Malik Mustapha the Wake Forest safety and have given him a second round grade with the expectation he’ll go in round three or four instead. He reminds me of Budda Baker and I don’t think it’s a stretch to make that comparison. Meanwhile, I’ve placed Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo as my #3 safety with a round three grade after watching him this week. He’d be an ideal complement — big, strong, physical and fast. I also think he could go in the fourth round and present real value.

At pass rusher, Kansas’ Austin Booker is incredibly intriguing early on day three. Receiver is loaded with options if you wanted to add another young player to your group. I watched cornerback T.J. Tampa last night and he’s very interesting with an extremely physical style.

I can’t imagine John Schneider looking at this class and thinking he wants to draft once at #16 then wait 62 picks to select again, missing almost all of the sweet-spot. I think he’s going to want more stock between rounds 2-4.

There are obviously scenarios where you can’t turn down a great opportunity at #16. Chop Robinson is the one to watch I think. His get-off has to be seen to be believed. He has ideal size, great power in his hands and, whisper it quietly, he shares similar traits to Micah Parsons. He has game-wrecking potential and seems to be flying under the radar a bit because his production wasn’t great in college. The talent is very much there, however.

There are others too. Field Yates had Brock Bowers lasting to Seattle’s pick in his mock draft. I think there’s next to no chance of that happening but if it somehow did, you’d have to take him. Jared Verse would be another player you seriously consider ‘sticking and picking’. Some of the offensive tackles are very good in round one (but much will depend on Abe Lucas’ health and how comfortable you are taking a possible guard convert in the middle of round one).

Otherwise, trading down would be very appealing. Perhaps multiple times. Try to get back into round two. See if you can add stock in rounds three and four. This is a class that meshes well with Seattle’s needs — with a ton of Washington and Michigan players scattered throughout (we know the Seahawks have plenty of intel there) and lots of very attractive options with starting potential.

Acquiring extra stock also presents a better opportunity to take a chance on a quarterback. You might not want to do that with only three picks in the first three rounds. If you end up with five instead, you can address several needs then let the quarterback class come to you. If someone provides value who you like, whether that’s a Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr or Spencer Rattler on day two — or maybe a Michael Pratt or Jordan Travis on day three — it makes sense if you’ve built your stock and added other players first.

I know a lot of Seahawks fans grew tired of the team endlessly trading down a few years ago. I don’t think the likes of Robinson, Bowers or Verse will last to #16 — and players like Powers-Johnson and Troy Fautanu, for me at least, would not present good value (especially not compared to the linemen who will be available 20-40 picks later).

If they can find a partner, trading down feels extremely plausible.

The Jake Peetz addition is such a savvy move

It was revealed yesterday that Peetz is leaving the Rams to become Seattle’s passing game coordinator. He was the ‘passing game specialist’ in LA under Sean McVay.

It’s a great hire for two reasons. Firstly, Peetz was highly regarded as a viable offensive coordinator candidate this year and interviewed with the Buccs before they hired Liam Coen, in an attempt to bolster their hopes of retaining Baker Mayfield.

Here’s what Peter King wrote about Peetz before the hiring cycle began:

Jake Peetz, 39, pass-game specialist, L.A. Rams. “He’ll win every interview,” one peer told me. Former QB coach of the Raiders and Panthers, former offensive analyst for Nick Saban at Alabama, former OC at LSU. Well-respected by Sean McVay in his two years with the Rams. What impressed me is Puka Nacua telling me in October that he learned the Rams’ offense in long early-morning sessions with Peetz in May and June. Imaginative guy.

Secondly, this feels like the Seahawks wisely planning ahead. Schneider admitted before hiring Mike Macdonald that if they went with a defensive-minded Head Coach, they ran the risk of playing musical chairs at offensive coordinator. Such is the demand for any offensive play-caller who has even a modicum of success (see: Dave Canales).

If Ryan Grubb excels in Seattle he too will be in-demand. I think the hiring of Peetz is an attempt to get ahead of the game. Bring in a highly rated young offensive coach when the offense is being built. He’ll be across everything. Then, if Grubb is hired away by another team, you have your ready made replacement waiting in the wings.

This is what Detroit has with Ben Johnson and Tanner Engstrand. Now the Seahawks have it with Grubb and Peetz. They don’t just benefit from adding a talented coach from the McVay tree, they also have a contingency plan for the future if Grubb gets a top job somewhere else.

I’ll be on KJR talking about the Seahawks today at 11am, be sure to tune in!

Geno Smith won’t be cut today but question marks remain about the future

February 15, 2024 /

One question has been answered today but the nature of Adam Schefter’s ESPN report creates plenty of others.

Schefter revealed the Seahawks wouldn’t be cutting Geno Smith today, which isn’t surprising. There was no sense in doing that — a restructure was always more likely today which would’ve likely locked Smith onto the roster for 2024.

Instead, the Seahawks are not parting ways. For now, at least. There’s a new key date to focus on — March 18th, when a $9.6m roster bonus is due. That is the deadline for a trade. Either Smith will be dealt before that day, or he will remain with the Seahawks this year.

Schefter’s second tweet on the topic was interesting. Take a look:

File this one in the ‘no smoke without fire’ category. Schefter mentioning that Smith ‘represents value’ to ‘any other team that decides to reach out to see if they can acquire Smith’ says it all. There’s a reason why that was tossed out there.

I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that I thought a trade was the most likely outcome. I don’t think it’s a certainty — the Seahawks aren’t going to give Smith away. It’s possible no attractive offers come in and the way Schefter’s report is framed, you’d imagine the Seahawks are comfortable with moving forward if that’s the case.

However, Schefter’s tweet almost feels like an appeal to give the Seahawks a call. They’re keeping their options open — which is the right thing to do. I do think John Schneider and Mike Macdonald being non-committal before today was telling and indicative of how they are thinking. I think their language might change now. Schneider is speaking on Seattle Sports today, in the first episode of his weekly pre-draft series. If the Seahawks are minded to check the trade market on Smith, Schneider will likely start talking him up.

Short of a clear-cut announcement though of Smith being ‘the guy’, I think the topic is set to drag on into the combine where serious trade discussions will begin. By then, we should know what’s going to happen. We don’t have long to wait.

I think the Steelers are a key team to watch. Atlanta are another. It should be an interesting two or three weeks. If a serious offer isn’t forthcoming, Smith likely stays and plays with the Seahawks. Let’s be clear though — the news today isn’t confirmation of anything definitive. The date next month is the key one to watch and I’d suggest it’d be a mistake to ignore the language in Schefter’s report.

If you missed Curtis Allen’s fantastic article earlier, taking a strategic look at the Seahawks off-season, be sure to check it out here.

Curtis Allen: A Strategic Look at the Offseason for the Seahawks

February 15, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

We recently discussed the 2024 Calendar for the Seahawks and it illuminated several critical dates and decision points the team will have to make as they navigate the roster through new leadership.

To better grasp what choices the team has before them – and the ultimate impact of those choices this year and into 2025 – we need to overlay the potential roster moves onto that calendar and match it to the salary cap situation the team is facing on a big-picture-level view. There are more critical decisions the team will have to make this year than in any recent season.

First, a brief review of how the team arrived at the point they are at. The team is currently over the cap, with $5 million of room they need to scrape together to get under before March 13. The team has some intriguing young talent on the roster in some key places but needs to refocus on adding talent and continuity in the trenches. A long-term plan at the quarterback position is also quickly becoming necessary.

At the moment, those opportunities are hindered because the team has $75 million in cap space committed in 2024 to Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Tyler Lockett – players with their best years behind them – and that is such a heavy number due to restructuring those three players last year to create space. The team pushed nearly $20 million on those three players’ contracts into future years and spent that space in an attempt to tip the scales in their favor.

They have a $31 million cap number for quarterback Geno Smith and clearly are evaluating whether they want to address the position this offseason.

Also, they traded away a precious second-round pick for Leonard Williams, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March.

It is obvious they were extremely aggressive in 2023, pushing all their chips to the center of the table.

The credit card bill now due in 2024 is pretty daunting.

Just to illustrate the path not taken, around this time last year we proposed our own aggressive plan that went in the opposite direction: moving on from the safeties, drafting a quarterback and clearing the decks for a more calculated spend on trench talent. In hindsight, that plan would have been preferable to what the Seahawks did and might not have resulted in a dramatically worse record. There is a considerable downside though: it might not have spurred the regime change that has gotten a tired fanbase so rejuvenated.

Back to reality. The work the Seahawks have to do is considerable. The way they attack this off-season will tell us a lot about John Schneider’s personal team-building philosophy as he steps out from behind a large shadow. Particularly in regards to planning ahead. The team has always strived to have one foot in the present and one in the future. But the last few years, the foot in the present has been the far heavier of the two and the future has suffered as a result.

So instead of just one main plan like we proposed last year, we are going to look at two plans — each with their own goals and philosophies. One with an eye to sustaining roster stability and consistency and one with a more aggressive approach that focuses on long-term success.

Why two plans? This is to bring to light the options available to the team. It is less about a black and white choosing of ‘Option A’ or ‘Option B’ and more about realizing the potential benefits and costs of decisions they make. I would fully expect the Seahawks to blend some of the choices from each option and forge a path of their own.

But first, we have to set a baseline and build a framework to work off of.

Establishing the Base Concept

As our calendar piece showed, there are key dates that are hard deadlines, both from the NFL and from the contracts the team currently has on the books. We need to visualize those dates and the cap room and other decisions that need to be made in order to grasp what is at stake.

To that end, we have included approximate cap numbers for tendering the Restricted and Exclusive Rights Free Agents, their draft picks and also a standard chunk of cap room for Practice Squad players. This gives us an idea of how much cap room the team will need to cover these eventualities but also when that room is needed, which is almost as important.

We also inserted some moves that need to be made in both plans. It will serve to highlight the more specific moves to each plan that are proposed.

A little housekeeping note: these numbers are not cast in iron. Even the dates are a bit flexible.

I pulled the numbers that are available and adjusted them to make sure only the top 51 players counted against the cap. There may be some injury settlement money coming for Adams and Mone and some incentives that have not been made public but those comes later and can be addressed on the cap by making a couple of simpler moves.

As for the dates? The Seahawks could announce an agreement with say Leonard Williams and not officially file the paperwork until March 15 in order to be compliant on March 13. But they would still have to make a corresponding move around that time to stay under the cap. Once the 2024 league year starts, you cannot go over the 2024 cap (but you can go over the next year cap all you like. Just ask the Saints).

Before we talk about the moves we put in, look at the Cap Room column. It is not pretty. The team starts out under water, hits the New League Year deadline of March 13 under water (which cannot happen) and barely gets above water at the end of the year after covering the basic costs.

It gets worse. Look at 2025’s cap number after these basic moves have been made. That $5.8 million number is not awful but neither is it a light at the end of a dark tunnel. Keep 2025 in mind as we work through our plans. It is critical, not just to maintain flexibility but to have some room to start paying their star draft picks as their rookie contracts expire.

The moves

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. The safeties.

We have long talked about how their contracts and lack of field-tilting play have affected the team as a whole. It is time to move on. It is not a grudge. Jamal Adams cannot stay healthy. He has ended the last three seasons on Injured Reserve. He has attacked his rehab with vigor and been a warrior trying to get back but proceeding with an almost $27 million cap hit in 2024 is absolutely untenable.

Quandre Diggs is a luxury the team cannot afford. Personally, I would love to see what a ball hawking safety like Diggs can do in Mike Macdonald’s defense. Unfortunately, the Seahawks would have to cap over $21 million for the privilege. Approaching him and asking him to cut down his $11 million salary to a number that fits their budget would likely be seen as insulting – that is how bad their cap situation is. It is best to shake hands, thank him for his time in Seattle and give him a chance to get a leg up on the market.

Keep in mind, the Seahawks bank over $27 million in cap room on these two cuts and still are scraping hard to keep their roster staffed. Times are that tough.

If that is the case, why is Leonard Williams on this list with a healthy number?

The Seahawks have been backed into a bit of a corner in two ways: First, trading a high pick for a player and cap room (that cap room was ‘spent’ in 2023) and only keeping him for ten games and letting him walk away is a bridge too far. Second, they badly need to keep investing in the trenches and Williams is that rare unicorn lineman that can fit in a 3-4, a 4-3 or some exotic package that Macdonald dreams up.

The 30-year-old Williams gets the contract Javon Hargrave got last year at 30: A four-year $81 million deal with a $23 million signing bonus. I structured it less aggressively than San Francisco, taking $9 million in 2024 and $15 million in 2025.

Bryan Mone is an obvious cut. The Seahawks carried him and his $3.675 million cap hit on Injured Reserve last year and they are too thin to afford him.

Nick Bellore has been everybody’s favorite cut in pieces like this for years. Why now then? Same reasons. A pure Special Teams player is something this team cannot afford. I also suspect Bellore was a Pete Carroll and Larry Izzo favorite (and rightfully so) and both of those coaches are gone.

I would class Drew Lock as an important, if not critical, player to retain. It is clear the Seahawks want to look at their options at the position and Lock is a player with a profile that John Schneider appreciates. It is notable that Mike Macdonald mentioned Lock in his introductory press conference, despite Lock being a free agent. There is no way that Lock’s contract status escaped Macdonald’s notice.

Lock is down in this plan for a two-year $15 million contract with a $6 million signing bonus. Before you drop your teeth, let me explain.

Quarterback is a very expensive position and the Seahawks are in a transition period. They need options with Geno Smith, the draft and to not be left in the cold if neither of those options produce.

Signing Lock gives them a familiar face who the team knows. He also would appear to fit not only Schneider’s profile but also Ryan Grubb’s offense, even if they do end up drafting someone this year. A $6 million bonus signifies that importance and gives him more up-front money than he has made in the last two seasons combined.

Here is where the contract is a bit inflated: it includes $5 million worth of incentives. If Lock reaches those incentives in 2024, they will not hit the cap until 2025, as he did not play much in 2023 and the incentives will be classed NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned).

If he does, his cap hit is a manageable $11 million for 2025 and the team has a ‘good problem’ on their hands. If they have drafted a quarterback this year who is ready to go in 2025, they can flip Lock to a needy team for a draft pick and toast to their smart planning. If he doesn’t, a cap hit of $6 million for a backup quarterback in 2025 is not an extravagance.

In the meantime, if they miss out on a quarterback or want to roll with Lock for another stretch, they can extend him with a contract structured not unlike Geno Smith’s current deal, with rewards, incentives and outs.

It is a contract well worth taking on in my opinion.

The tenders

Michael Jackson has been a good find for the Seahawks and tendering him at the $2.8 million Right of First Refusal level demonstrates how they value him. 2023 was a bit of a roller-coaster year for him. He had stretches where he was their best outside corner and stretches where he struggled to stay on the field.

The Seahawks can tender him and keep him on the roster and head into the rest of the offseason with security at cornerback, with Jackson, Woolen, Witherspoon, Tre Brown and Coby Bryant on the roster.

There is value in a defensive coach not having to rebuild every defensive position in one offseason. The team has work to do at safety, linebacker and defensive line. One challenge at a time.

If they discover more appealing options or simply decide to move on, they can rescind the tender and regain the cap room like they did with Ryan Neal last offseason.

Darrell Taylor is a real quandary. In three seasons, he has very good counting stats: 21.5 sacks, 57 pressures, five forced fumbles and 21 tackles for loss. He has done that despite never playing 50% of the defensive snaps. That is an efficiency not a lot of ends can claim.

And then there’s the flipside. He cannot get on the field more because the Seahawks do not trust him in non-pass rush situations. He has been atrocious in run defense, both in setting the edge and otherwise minding his gaps. Mainly because he seems solely focused on the quarterback to the exclusion of a vital chunk of his other duties.

He does not justify his second-round tender of $4.6 million at this point. But the Right of First Refusal at $2.8 million is a solid option. Leaning towards having an expendable player that can provide pass rush and seeing if the new coaching staff can reach him and round him out is a gamble I am comfortable with. An inside linebacker, a guard or a fourth wide receiver with the same profile? Probably would not tender. But pass rushers are a commodity you must have and a lottery ticket with little risk is one that can be justified. Again, they can pull the tender any time and move on without consequence if they decide.

Jake Curhan and Myles Adams are easy choices, as they have snaps of NFL experience in the trenches and will cost about $140-150k more than the lowest-salaried players on the team. Curhan is no superstar but every team needs a versatile plug and play option and seeing if the new administration can coach him up just a little more is worth keeping him on.

Patrick O’Connell is only being tendered because the Seahawks badly need depth at the linebacker spot. If he makes the roster out of camp, he will be the lowest-salaried player on the team and in the end not count anything against the cap.

There is our baseline roster and cap situation. It is not a complete picture by any means. What it does accomplish is it gets the roster to a starting point, while mostly cleaning up the salary cap and making sure a couple of key pieces stay in Seattle.

At this point, the team has a glaring hole at inside linebacker, needs more interior offensive line and tight end depth and a safety prospect would not hurt.

Yet not only are they out of room, they need to generate over $4 million in room before March 13 to get under the cap.

As for the draft? Yes, they could go young at the positions of need and plug them in as starters. That is an option. However, at some point they have to start thinking about investing in a quarterback to develop. Taking one in the top three rounds would really limit their options to get a 17-game starter at more than one position, let alone find four or five.

They have work to do.

We put together two plans of action.

One that honors a desire for some roster continuity and is less risky. When utilized properly by the new coaching staff and supplemented by a draft as good as 2022 or 2023, the team will be competitive in 2024 while not absolutely shredding the future cap. This plan counts on the stars on the roster to be stars while the newer players are adequate.

The other expresses a more aggressive approach. Cuts are plentiful and dead cap money is collected like it is going out of style. It is not a total teardown and rebuild by any means. Just more of a reshaping of the roster closer in line with a newer vision, while promoting competition and having more of a ‘build around your stars’ aesthetic to it.

Both plans generate the cap space needed to comply on March 13 and both end the year with a cap space surplus. Both plans also generated about $15 million cap dollars to spend in free agency but as you will see, one is a bit limited, the other has options galore.

We will build on the base chart by adding the appropriate moves for each (highlighted in green).

The Continuity Plan

As you can see, this plan incorporates the base moves and simply adds some restructures to pick up some more spending money.

D.K. Metcalf’s $13 million 2024 salary is restructured to a signing bonus. They gain $5.937 million of cap room this year and push the same amount to 2025.

Why would we advocate that move, when it grows Metcalf’s 2025 cap number to over $35 million? For a wide receiver? When the team is dealing with the ramifications of restructures right now?

Two reasons: One, 2025 is the last year of his current contract and the Seahawks can extend him and reclaim about $10-12 million of cap room. Two, Metcalf is exactly the kind of player you restructure. Young, productive and has his best years ahead of him still. Not older players who have been frequently injured and unproductive.

The Seahawks also commit to Geno Smith for 2024 in this plan as well. They restructure his $12.7 million salary and $9.6 million roster bonus and pick up $10.545 million this year and push that amount into 2025. In fact, if the Seahawks are dedicated to this idea, it would be beneficial to convert both and pay them out before March 13, so they have more free cap room when the feeding frenzy begins instead of waiting until the official March 18 date.

How do we justify buying on the credit card with this move? The team feels that Geno Smith will rebound in 2024 and with some willpower can convince themselves that eating about $19 million of dead cap in 2025 isn’t much worse than eating $17.4 million this year. They put off the inevitable parting of ways for a season and give Smith a properly coached defense and an offensive line (hopefully) free of major injury to work with and see if he rebounds to his nearly-70% completion, 30-touchdown form.

If and when the Seahawks draft a quarterback, that means they will carry three on the roster in 2024 with Drew Lock already signed. Is that a good use of resources? Yes, it is fine. The Seahawks started out 2012 with Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Flynn and that third-round quarterback from Wisconsin on the roster. It worked out just fine.

Why not move on from Tyler Lockett and Dre’mont Jones to save some cap room?

Lockett has an almost $27 million cap hit this year and that is not pretty. However, he has still been very productive. In 2023, two things happened that make people think he is in decline: He dropped a couple of very key catches and his deeper catches fell significantly. One of those things is not his fault. Geno Smith and the offense drew back to a quicker, shorter passing scheme on the whole and nobody was affected more than Lockett. His targets, catches and first downs all stayed consistent with his career norms but his total yards and touchdowns declined.

This is more a feeling than a logical point: Lockett has consistently accepted the Seahawks’ overtures to extend his contract early instead of waiting out the market and getting more money. While simultaneously being extremely productive.

As a consequence, in the last five or so seasons he was one of the best values in the Wide Receiver market. If I had to pick one Seahawks player on the roster to keep with an enormous boondoggle of a number, it would be Lockett. I wonder if the team feels the same way.

As for Jones, unless a team comes through with a fabulous trade offer, there is not much to be gained from moving on from him until 2025. I’ll also repeat what I said above about Darrell Taylor: they need pass rushers. Moving on from Jones would not net much. Let’s give him a season with a new defensive staff and see what he can do.

Before we talk about the $15 million spent on the market, scan down to the bottom and look at where we end up in this plan. There is less than a $3 million cap surplus left over and with all those moves, they end up $9 million over the cap in 2025.

They would be starting over 2025 just like this year – under water. They could extend D.K. Metcalf, cut Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett but that would pick up about $40 million of room and put them at about $30 million under the cap. There are other levers they could pull to get room but they come with a price.

That is not all that bad. However, it does limit how aggressive they can be in free agency in 2024. Just one really good player contract aggressively structured to get a low 2024 number would take half of that cap room and hammer their free spending ability in 2025.

Therefore, the $15 million in free agency they spend this year in this plan to get veteran linebackers, a tight end and some offensive line help to complete the team would be best served on players whose total contract will not require a large and long commitment.

Again, that is not bad. Shopping in the bargain aisle with our new leadership team might be a fruitful exercise.

My fascination with this plan is this: it would be very intriguing to see what this new leadership group can do with essentially the same group from 2023. The results from a change in the culture, the attitude, the intelligence as well as the adaptation to the NFL would be fascinating.

Seeing players like Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet taking a big step forward while Geno Smith, Leonard Williams, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf do not have to carry the team with just their skill would be appointment watching.

But it is a safer option. Now, let’s look at the riskier but potentially more rewarding choice.

The Aggressive Plan

This plan is aggressive alright. Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Will Dissly, Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett are all asked to come into the VMAC and please bring their playbooks.

A way to think of this plan is ‘anyone we do not anticipate being on the roster in 2025 will not be on the roster for 2024’.

It is not an easy thing to do but skip to the bottom and have a look at the results. They end the season with over an $11 million cap surplus and go into next year with $65 million to spend.

This is the new administration putting their stamp on this organization.

Four of the five players cut will not be effective players when this new leadership group hits its stride and begins to seriously contend.

Jamal Adams has been released before June 1. That means the team eats his entire dead cap this year and realizes lesser savings now. It does open almost $28 million of room for next year.

How can they afford to ‘only’ pick up $6 million in a tough cap year? They stack some other transactions to get room.

Will Dissly is cut. He is another player that it could be reasoned was on the team and so well compensated due to Pete Carroll. He was a blocking Tight End and Special Teams stalwart. Dissly had a career-low 17 catches in 2023, or one catch per game. That is not enough to justify a $10 million cap hit.

With so much savings before the March deadline, the Seahawks can make some moves to set themselves up for an active free agency period.

Extending Julian Love on something similar to Grant Delpit’s three-year, $36 million contract establishes some continuity after making two big cuts at the position and gives the Seahawks a little more cap room. Love is known for his versatility. He can play nickel, in the box or in deep centerfield. Mike Macdonald used his safeties in a ‘mix and match’ manner in Baltimore to great success. Love becomes the new face of the safety group.

Colby Parkinson is a potential buy-low bargain that could be a winning investment. A two-year $10 million contract gives him some security and familiarity. The team gets a player whose blocking has greatly improved and can use his length and hands to be a real weapon. This contract gives him a chance to hit the market again before he is 27 with (hopefully) some much improved numbers.

We see the other side of the coin for Tyler Lockett. He is just too expensive to keep. There is a possibility of the Seahawks trading him away. His age 32 and 33 seasons at $15.3 million each year (about the #19-22 WR average salary) could intrigue some teams. The organization would likely approach him if a team made a firm offer and get his consent, as a show of respect for all his years of being a model NFL player. But also, given his service, they might just choose to cut him and let him make the choice of where he plays next.

Why trade Geno Smith? It could be for any number of reasons: his cap hit is tripling this year, the team feels he has reached his peak as a quarterback, or perhaps it is a combination of those things. Is Geno Smith better than Drew Lock right now, today? Yes, most certainly.

Is he so much better than Lock you can justify having him on the roster at $31 million over Lock’s paltry $4 million? Much tougher to say. That is why John Schneider makes the big bucks. But rationally, it is very persuasive. Particularly if you weigh 2025 and beyond more heavily than the present.

There is one more intriguing reason to trade him: Smith could net a decent draft pick at a time when the Seahawks do not have a second-round pick. That extra pick could be used on a long-term solution at the quarterback position or to just fortify the trenches.

How good could the pick be? We will discuss that in a moment.

Let us round out the discussion on the aggressive plan results first.

That $15 million to spend on free agents is far more powerful than the $15 million in the consistency plan. Why? It is backed up by the $11 million surplus and the $65 million in cap room available in 2025. They could aggressively structure a contract to fit nicely on the cap in 2024 and have a healthy hit in 2025 because they have to room to operate.

Furthermore, investing in young, talented, proven players at critical positions could be a force multiplier that makes younger, less experienced teammates better. And having those types of players could give you options in 2025-2027 if you want to rework their contract to fit another piece in. You know those players will be around and producing well in future seasons, justifying the gamble.

They have all kinds of options with that kind of flexibility.

Taking two or three big shots in free agency could be on the table. All of the sudden, possibilities like bringing in a top Guard and a top Defensive Tackle and surrounding them with young, talented draft picks could be a real opportunity.

They have buying power they could use to talk someone like Noah Fant into an extremely reasonable contract to reestablish value after a career-low year.

Or they could try something different. Save their cap, see what they have on the roster in the draft and fill holes in 2025.

A combination of options could work. Things happen in late summer and fall that could really benefit an opportunistic team with cap room. John Schneider has excelled in that area, acquiring impact players Carlos Dunlap and Jadeveon Clowney for very little in trade.

The benefit of this plan is this team could simultaneously get younger, free up a lot of cap room and gel as a team in 2024 and be ready to take a big step forward in 2025. It is very tempting to consider.

The downside? If the team does not draft well and/or Mike Macdonald cannot get his team on the same page without the benefit of an MVP-level talent on offense like Lamar Jackson, the team’s grip on perpetual 8-11 win seasons and playing meaningful football in December could slip.

Trading Geno Smith

In my calendar piece, I posited that the Seahawks may not have much leverage in a trade negotiation if a team wants to acquire Geno Smith. That five-day period between the league year starting and that roster bonus due date hitting does apply some pressure to be sure.

But as I was working on the aggressive plan, two things occurred to me that in the right circumstances, could swing the leverage back to a more neutral position in negotiations and return the Seahawks a decent pick in trade.

The first is this: leverage might be a bit overrated when you are specifically discussing the quarterback trade market.

To wit: In 2019, Calais Campbell was ready to move on from Jacksonville. His time had run its course and the worst kept secret in the NFL was he was available. He liked Baltimore and the Ravens traded a fifth-round pick for Campbell. In the four seasons since, he’s been a beloved locker room leader, played 60-65% of his team’s snaps, had 17.5 sacks and went to a Pro Bowl.

While last year, San Francisco was ready to move on from Trey Lance. He had been an absolute bust for the Niners. He had only started four games, was a 55% passer and struggled to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s play concepts.

The Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick for him, knowing that not only would he not play at all for them in 2023 (Cooper Rush was the #2 in Dallas) but also that Rush has a contract for 2024 as well and Lance has guaranteed money on his 2024 contract.

I understand those two trades are far from apples to apples. But I wanted to illustrate the gulf between quarterbacks and the rest of the position groups in terms of trade value.

Let me share one that is more germane to Geno Smith.

Matt Ryan was traded in 2022 to the Colts for a third-round pick, #82 overall in the draft.

The Falcons had almost no leverage in this trade to negotiate with. They had been deep in negotiations with the Texans on a Deshaun Watson trade and when the Browns made their huge offer (another team bidding hugely to acquire a quarterback I might add), the Falcons could not mend fences with Ryan. He requested a trade and reports said that he ‘picked’ the Colts. And what’s more, he had a big chunk of contract left to pay.

They still landed a third-round pick.

Matt Ryan’s stat line for 17 games of the 2021 season (age 36): 67% completion rate, 90.4 QB Rating, 233 yards per game, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 40 sacks. $50 million in contract guarantees for 2022-23.

Have a look at this:

Geno Smith’s line adjusted for 17 games last year (his age 33): 64.7% completion rate, 92.1 QB rating, 242 yards per game, 23 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 35 sacks. $12.7 million in contract guarantees for 2024-25.

It is eerie how close they are. True, Ryan has an MVP trophy and a Super Bowl appearance on his resume but the last few years he had struggled to keep Atlanta competitive.

I am not saying the Seahawks are guaranteed to land a third-round pick for Geno Smith in a trade. You could argue the Colts were desperate, having gone through Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz. That they felt Ryan was the final piece of the puzzle. You could point to the fact that Ryan and the Colts had an awful season and parted ways after one year.

But we all know the quarterback position demands a premium.

The second point is this: cap space itself can be leveraged in trade negotiations. I referred in the calendar piece to the fact that the Seahawks could explore taking on some cap in exchange for a better pick in trade, just like the Giants did when trading Leonard Williams to Seattle.

In my aggressive plan above, the Seahawks have created enough cap space to spend some of it eating some of Geno Smith’s salary or roster bonus in a trade.

It is obvious why a team would consider this scenario, just as it was for the Seahawks when Williams came in. They want a top player but do not have the cap resources to pay his salary. They offer their draft stock as currency to complete a trade where they got to have their player and not pay him much at all.

And further on that, Smith’s contract is very attractive even as it is. There is no guaranteed money in 2025 right now. If the acquiring team really wanted to make some hay, they could convert whatever is left of Smith’s contract that the Seahawks do not absorb into a bonus and have a very solid veteran playing on the cap number of a depth linebacker. That could be an attractive proposition.

Who might need a quarterback and are not flush with cap space? Who might be able to talk themselves into trading for a stopgap solution to run with the veterans they have whose clock is ticking a bit?

Pittsburgh. Las Vegas. Atlanta. Maybe even New England.

Maybe the Denver Broncos. Actually, scratch that. Denver might not even take Seattle’s call.

I am not arguing that the Seahawks are going to break the bank in a Geno Smith trade. I am just reasoning out a scenario.

If John Schneider can box clever with his roster and cap space, there just might be an opportunity to score a good pick in trade and advance his team’s aspirations even further. And more quickly.

Concluding Thought

When a team has little cap room to start with and has traded away their second-most prized draft asset, there is an easy tendency to sigh and reckon the team’s hands are tied this year and we will just have to wait until next year to get excited about a more ambitious plan.

I hope I have given you some options to think about and consider.

What do you think? Which plan would you choose if you were forced to? Which elements of the plan would you modify? Let me know in the comments section.

Thank you for reading.

Geno Smith’s future as I see it

February 13, 2024 /

You can’t escape the Geno Smith debate. It’s constant within the fanbase and media — and for good reason. Quarterback is the most talked about position in the NFL and until the Seahawks have an unquestioned franchise caliber signal caller, it’ll be the hottest topic in town.

I am, though, surprised by the nature of the discussion. There’s almost a level of disbelief at the thought that Smith might not be with the Seahawks next season. It goes a step further when people use language like ‘anti-Geno’ and ‘Geno haters’. Maybe there is an army of Seahawks fans on the rampage, taking any opportunity to slander the quarterback. I’ve seen no real evidence of it though. It makes you wonder whether being ‘anti-Geno’ or a ‘hater’ simply amounts to not rating him as highly as others, or being open to the possibility that he isn’t for long on the roster?

I think people are letting their own personal sentiments on Geno’s worth cloud their view on what could actually happen in the coming weeks. Here’s the situation as I see it. If you think it’s unreasonable, say so in the comments section.

— Geno Smith has shown himself to be a viable NFL starting quarterback, which wasn’t the conventional wisdom two years ago. His PFF grade has been in the top-half of the league at his position for the last two years and is on a similar level to Jared Goff in Detroit. Statistically there are a lot of strong arguments to be made in his favour.

— As John Schneider pointed out, though, he has been an up-and-down performer. He started the 2022 season as a legit MVP candidate, with incredible production and performance. Yet in the second half of the season, things tailed off fairly dramatically to the point he ranked second in the NFL for turnover worthy plays. This year, the reverse happened. He started very slowly and had some ugly moments within a streaky overall offensive unit. Then, in the second half of the season, he recaptured a high level of performance.

— It doesn’t feel unreasonable to describe Smith as such — he is in no way, shape or form a ‘problem’ for the Seahawks that requires immediate, drastic action. However, it equally isn’t unreasonable to question whether he is ever going to be able to lead the Seahawks to where they want to get to which is contention for the Super Bowl. A few people believe Smith is ‘the guy’. I do not. I also think he’s a perfectly acceptable bridge until you find, hopefully, someone who can come in and do what Russell Wilson did and become a legit franchise quarterback. That said, there are other things the Seahawks have to consider that we as observers should also consider.

— Firstly, John Schneider’s opinion matters most, not ours. This sometimes gets overlooked. For example, Schneider spent the entire aftermath of the 2022 draft talking about the renewed emphasis the Seahawks were placing on character. He continued to say this 12 months ago. Even so, many were still convinced he was going to take Jalen Carter with the #5 pick, despite repeated questions about his character and a highly publicised news story about his potential involvement in a high-speed crash that killed two people.

— There have been other mistakes too. How often was the Russell Wilson trade talk dismissed as a non-story? Clearly it wasn’t and it didn’t take much research to come to that conclusion. It’s still amazing how many people outright failed to consider it as a possibility. Especially when there was so much smoke — Schneider’s relationship with Wilson’s agent, the reports about interest in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Adam Schefter tweet listing teams Wilson would be prepared to go to, and so on.

— Schneider has been completely non-committal on Smith so far, as has the Head Coach he’s just appointed in Mike Macdonald. When asked to discuss Smith at his solo press conference, Schneider simply talked about his up-and-down form with no reference to next season. Macdonald name-dropped Drew Lock — a free agent — in his answer about Smith, and was equally non-committal. On Monday during an interview with Seattle Sports, Macdonald mentioned he’d spoken to ‘both quarterbacks, Drew and Geno’. It would’ve been very easy at any point to reference Smith in the future tense as the team’s starter, or speak of their aims for next season with Smith under center. Neither Schneider or Macdonald have done this, yet they keep bringing up Lock’s name, despite the fact he’s no longer contracted to the team.

— This might mean nothing. I do think it’s strange, though, if Seattle’s intention was to unquestionably bring back Smith next year, why there hasn’t been one thing said to make that clear? ‘Smith is our guy’, ‘we’re looking to see more consistency from him next year’, ‘we have so many good ideas for Geno in our offense’. These are easy things to say and if there was no doubt he was returning, there’d be absolutely zero reason not to say them. At the very least, it feels like everything is being left on the table.

— It’s often argued that Smith’s $31.2m salary is reasonable relative to his performance and compared to his peers. I think there are other things to discuss here. For example, if Schneider is minded to view Smith and/or Lock as simply ‘bridge’ quarterbacks, does he want to commit that much money to either? If he has identified a quarterback or multiple quarterbacks he likes in the draft, and intends to give a rookie every opportunity to start in 2024, it will be very difficult to bench a player earning $31.2m compared to a cheaper bridge earning, say, the $4m Lock earned in 2023. You might scoff at the possibility of such a scenario but if Schneider really likes one of these young QB’s, you can see why he might wish to make a change. It’s not automatic that the GM would prefer to sit a rookie for a year — especially if, for arguments sake, that rookie has played a lot of college football games, is already 24 and has maybe played two years with the offensive coordinator you just appointed. If you want to max-out a rookie contract and have that player start quickly — it makes little sense to carry a $31.2m backup. Lock can hedge against the draft at a far cheaper price, if needed. I don’t think this is a preposterous thing to consider.

— It’s also possible that Schneider, when faced with Smith suddenly having a cap hit three times higher than his 2023 number, simply doesn’t think there’s a $27.2m difference in quality between Smith and Lock. After all, Smith was seen as a busted flush before reviving his career in Seattle. Is it unthinkable that Schneider believes, with proper guidance, that Lock could similarly prove to be a viable, yet cheaper, bridge option? I might be sceptical of that, you might be sceptical of that but can you say with any certainty that you think there’s no chance Schneider might feel this way?

— The Seahawks are $9.5m in the red for effective cap space, per OTC. They need to save money somewhere. While most people assume Jamal Adams is a goner, you typically see passionate online arguments for keeping Smith, Quandre Diggs and Leonard Williams. You’re going to need to be more active than simply getting rid of Adams, Bryan Mone and maybe a Will Dissly. Smith’s contract was set up to have an out for a reason — to create a decision right now about how to proceed. Whether his $31.2m makes sense comparatively within the league isn’t the question. It’s whether it makes sense for the Seahawks in 2024, at the start of a new era with major cap challenges staring the team in the face.

— I think it’s perfectly plausible that Smith will stay with the team and the non-committal language recently was a leverage play in talks over a renegotiation. I don’t think it’d be that shocking to learn, before Friday, that Smith has re-worked his deal to lower his cap hit and stay in Seattle. I do think that will be necessary though — I don’t think it’s likely at all that he plays on a cap hit that is three times what he played on last year, coming off a season where his numbers dipped across the board (he didn’t hit a single escalator) and he missed time due to injury.

— If he doesn’t re-work his deal before Friday, I can well imagine some people online making declarative statements that the issue is sorted. That’s it. Nothing to see here. Smith is confirmed as Seattle’s starter for 2024. That most definitely won’t be the case. The Seahawks have until March 20th to trade him and recoup the same saving ($13.8m) as cutting him will create. That is a hard deadline, due to a bonus in his contract. It is totally possible that, between now and the end of the combine, the Seahawks talk to interested parties about a trade that is completed when the new league year begins. Only once he either re-works his deal or we pass the March 20th deadline, will Smith be confirmed as the immovable starter for the Seahawks in 2024.

— My personal prediction is that he will be dealt. I think the Seahawks will believe he has some value and will look to get something back in a trade. Their leverage will not be great, due to the financial deadline placed on them. They might be able to eat some of Smith’s bonus, in order to get higher compensation. I do think, though, that Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback and that he possibly rates Lock more than others do and that he might think a cheaper bridge, with the prospect of a rookie competing for the job, will be the direction to go. That’s my hunch but I also lean somewhat to the lukewarm nature of their words being a leverage play to get his cap hit down this year.

— If he is traded, my guess would be Pittsburgh. They just cut Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph is a free agent. They only have Kenny Pickett on the roster and recently Team President Art Rooney II left the door open for a veteran quarterback trade (while also dismissing the prospect of any move being be a ‘blockbuster’ for a player such as Justin Fields). Someone like Smith could be a perfect fit for a Steelers team who have a brilliant defense to complement an offense that simply needs to not be awful. A soon-to-be 34-year-old Smith would also give them a year’s grace with Pickett, to see if he can take a step back on a cheaper rookie deal, regroup and emerge as a contender to start in 2025.

— I don’t think the Seahawks would be able to get much in a trade but if they’ve ultimately settled on going cheaper at the position and potentially targeting the draft, getting even a fourth rounder in return would be a plus versus an outright cut.

— Although that is my prediction, I appreciate anything could happen. It feels like a very fluid situation. I think we should be open-minded about this though. It does feel a little bit like battle-lines are being drawn within the fanbase again, where you have to pick a team. Haven’t we done that enough over the years? Running game vs anti-running game. Pro-Pete vs pro-change. Now you’re either for Geno or a ‘Geno hater’. Does every fanbase do this?

Thoughts on how the Seahawks build, after watching the Super Bowl

February 12, 2024 /

My immediate thought after the Super Bowl wasn’t amusement that the 49ers had lost (I’ve kind of got to the point where watching them be obviously better than the Seahawks and losing games we’d love to be anywhere near isn’t as enjoyable as it used to be). It was more about how the Seahawks get back to contention under the leadership of John Schneider and Mike Macdonald, based on what we’d just seen.

I’m sure in the coming days plenty of people will be making declarative statements on how the team needs to be built. I think the game showed yesterday there’s a perfect mix of ingredients that make football great.

The 49ers should’ve won by dominating the trenches, running the ball with a stud running back and an effective point guard QB. A legendary, genius quarterback for the other team dragged his side back into it, supported by a great defensive tackle who didn’t benefit from having a serious edge threat to garner attention.

It was a complete team against a star-reliant team and either could’ve won.

Both are immensely difficult to emulate. You either need to spend years building, as the 49ers have done, not to mention you need to pick in the top-two and land a superstar pass rusher and you need to hit on mega-value trades for elite players. On the other hand, you’ve got to be that team that finds the legendary quarterback without them just flopping into your lap with the #1 pick — and you need to find that insane defensive lineman who somehow lasts well beyond the top-20 picks.

Currently the Seahawks are blue-chip talent deficient and they don’t have a star at quarterback. There’s a lot of work to be done.

There are some pieces to work with and if Macdonald and his staff can take talented young player and others currently in their peak and elevate their performance, the Seahawks can close the gap. I still think they’ll need to find that X-factor pass rusher, an elite quarterback or they’ll need to find creative trade opportunities and top-tier players in the mid-to-late rounds to try and get close to what the Niners have become. And that’s without even acknowledging the schematic qualities of Kyle Shanahan, who remains brilliant even with a résumé that now includes three Super Bowl defeats.

I think there are some obvious things the Seahawks can do to aid their development. Half of San Francisco’s top-eight earners next year are linemen. The other four are Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward. Compare that to the Seahawks who, among their top-eight earners, are three safeties (Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Julian Love) a blocking tight end (Will Dissly) and Dre’Mont Jones, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith. One lineman — and an underwhelming performer for his salary at that.

The Seahawks need to rip the band-aid off and transfer their safety spend into the trenches right now. This can’t just be a problem solved in the draft. Serious resource needs to be thrown at the offensive and defensive lines — starting with Leonard Williams and building from there. I’d go as far as to say they shouldn’t be looking to purely draft a great O-line. They need proven quality up front and that’s where they should be pushing the boat out — not on people like Diggs and Adams.

They do need to find difference makers in the draft. I continue to think John Schneider’s preference might be to trade down from #16 because the meat of this class is going to be rounds 2-3. There are some players who are ‘stick and pick’ types at #16 but I suspect they won’t last. Currently, some players who fit that bill could be Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham, Tyler Guyton, Jared Verse and Chop Robinson. I keep seeing mocks with Brock Bowers almost making it to #16 but I don’t see any chance of that. He would be on that list too.

Even then, how early do you want to draft a guard and/or a hedge tackle? Assuming Abe Lucas returns. Especially in a class where very good guards will be available on day two?

Verse and Robinson are different because I think both players have the potential to be genuine X-factor talents. Verse is a more traditional defensive end and has a fairly complete skill-set. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes especially early if he tests well at the combine or pro-day.

Robinson is the one on the ‘stick and pick’ list that I’m intrigued by the most. His lack of production at Penn State seems to be raising some question marks and in many mocks he goes later in round one. I think he’s a lock to go in the top-15 and his floor will be New Orleans or Indianapolis at #14/15. If he did last to #16, it’d be very hard to pass.

Penn State are not known for getting the most out of their star defenders. For example, they played Micah Parsons as an orthodox middle linebacker. The Cowboys unlocked Parsons’ generational ability and I think a creative defensive minded coach could do the same with Robinson (and, incidentally, the Seahawks just hired Dallas’ old D-line coach to be their defensive coordinator).

Robinson might have the best first-step get-off I’ve ever seen. It’s freakishly good. His burst off the snap is elite level for the NFL, let alone college. He is incredibly dynamic as a speed rusher and his dip-and-bend balance is extraordinary. The sack numbers are a bit deceptive because he is so disruptive even when he doesn’t get home. I don’t see it as a problem and think, with creative scheming and further coaching on minor technique issues, he could be a nightmare in the NFL. We’re talking about ‘sky is the limit’ potential, legit blue-chip, game-wrecking talent.

He’s well sized at approximately 255lbs, he’d be an ideal scheme fit and while he definitely needs to work on discipline versus the run, he has enough jolting power in his hands and the ‘want to’ to be a plus in this area, too.

He will be a combine dynamo and that will further propel him higher into the minds of the teams picking ahead of the Seahawks. He is a player with the special qualities, though, to be the kind of X-factor the Seahawks are going to need rushing the passer.

In terms of quarterbacks, I’m constantly torn on this class. You can go through several of the names and pick out genuine physical traits that hint at top-level talent. Michael Penix Jr’s arm is on the same level as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. However, I’m not sold that he can play the patient game Mahomes did yesterday, or be more than someone reliant on the big explosive passes. He’s a pocket passer, not a scrambler and creator. Maybe the Seahawks want to live in that world? They hired Ryan Grubb and interviewed Eric Bieniemy. That suggests they want a high-octane, pass-centric offense. But the NFL isn’t typically a league where big downfield passes can be relied on — even if Penix Jr is better placed than practically every other QB entering the league to deliver on them.

Bo Nix also has a fantastic arm, he’s very athletic and he can do a lot of good things. Does he scream top-tier quarterback though? It’s hard to feel that way. But what if they want to go the point guard route? He has the physical upside to do that very well.

Spencer Rattler is a poor-man’s, mini-Mahomes — he can do the crazy escapability, surprising shiftiness as a runner, he can throw from different arm angles and on the run. He even has some of Mahomes’ mannerisms. He lacks the size though, he doesn’t have quite the same arm and there are character questions from his Oklahoma days he’ll need to answer. Unlike Mahomes, Rattler also never had the big, consistent production in college. That could be a scheme/situational thing but it’s an area where Penix Jr and Nix both tick a box.

I could make a case for any of the trio going quite high in the draft, or lasting into day two. So what do you do?

It might be best to just sit on the grades and let the draft come to you. I have all three in round two. If you trade down from #16 and get back into the second frame — consider taking one if available. Start taking shots at the position. That’s what Green Bay used to do. Ditto if any of them last into round three.

Unfortunately the Seahawks are in this zone now where they are probably going to have to take a few chances and keep waiting until John Schneider finds that guy he loves as much as Russell Wilson, Mahomes and Allen. That QB may or may not be in this class. It could be Quinn Ewers next year. We’ll need to see.

What I would say though, is that trendy picks such as Jackson Powers-Johnson at #16 or Troy Fautanu to play guard feel a bit of a reach to me. After a trade down? That’d be fine. I don’t think either is vastly superior to Graham Barton or Sedrick Van Pran. I think you can find terrific interior O-line options in rounds 2-4 and I’d like to see a veteran focus there first and foremost, if possible.

Thoughts on the Seahawks hiring Ryan Grubb and Aden Durde

February 10, 2024 /

Friday was a busy day, firstly with the confirmation that Cowboys D-line coach Aden Durde would join the Seahawks as defensive coordinator. Then, with a flurry of Twitter activity and a few beers at Dino’s doing the rounds, it was confirmed that Ryan Grubb is the new offensive coordinator.

Ryan Grubb will be a fascinating experiment

It’s extremely rare that a college coach jumps over to lead an offense in the NFL. Grubb is tasked with building a system for the pro’s having never previously coached at this level. People who follow the Huskies say he’s perfectly prepared to do it but the proof, as they say, will be in the pudding.

It perhaps shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the Seahawks have gone in this direction. The market for offensive play-callers is extremely limited these days. Some of the up-and-coming names have been promoted to Head Coaching positions from positional jobs already. Others are already secure in coordinator jobs. This is why Shane Waldron immediately found employment in Chicago (when his former players can barely conceal their disdain for the job he did in Seattle). It’s why Luke Getsy and Kliff Kingsbury were pushed back into employment against all better judgement. It’s why Chip Kelly received NFL interviews.

You could argue it’s an inspired gamble by the Seahawks not to force things by going with a re-tread hire, instead looking to college. The NIL situation is changing the face of college football and they need to find a proper structure for it ASAP. Until that happens, there will be more retirements (Nick Saban) and more coaches desperate to run away from their teams (Kelly, Jeff Hafley). Not to mention the pro and college games are more closely aligned than ever schematically.

That said, there’s still a risk factor. I had a conversation recently with a vastly experienced NFL personnel man and, when talking about Michael Penix Jr, he bemoaned the pre-determined nature of Washington’s offense. You’re not going to be able to do that in the NFL. There’s also a danger that, as with Kelly in Philadelphia, you start quickly and then teams adjust and things become predictable and easy to defend very quickly. The Seahawks have to avoid being gimmicky and come up with something innovative and challenging. They can no longer be a team that ‘does what it does’ on offense — they need game-specific plans for each opponent, targeting weaknesses while finding ways to highlight their best weapons against those weaknesses. They need to master misdirection and be a team that adjusts well in-game.

What I do think this appointment tells us, however, is that the Seahawks want to be the aggressor. Washington’s offense was explosive and loved to take shots. Since Pete Carroll’s departure, this is what I think John Schneider has craved. It’s why, I think, Mike Kafka appealed so much because he would try to bring Andy Reid’s scheme to Seattle. This isn’t going to be three yards and a cloud of dust every play. This is going to be attack-minded.

Mike Macdonald isn’t going to be conservative. Look at Baltimore. The Ravens defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They benefitted so much from scoreboard pressure in 2023. The Seahawks, by appointing Grubb to build the offense, are likely to want to emulate that.

The other benefit is I’m not convinced Grubb will be rushing for the exit if things go well. That could’ve easily been the case with, say, Tanner Engstrand. Younger, successful offensive coordinators are quickly getting poached. Grubb may propel himself into that range but it seems unlikely a NFL team would ask him to run a whole operation after one full season in the league. Macdonald said at his press conference he wanted someone to build the offense and run it for years and in Grubb, they might have someone who — if successful — could be in place for at least 2-3 seasons if not longer, before any Head Coaching attention comes his way.

There’s another comparison to Baltimore in that they also appointed an offensive coordinator from college recently in Todd Monken. His background was previously NFL-heavy before going to Georgia, so it’s different. But perhaps Macdonald has experienced how beneficial it is to mesh some of the college spread options with a pro-flavour.

I’ve no idea whether this is a good move or not. I think people who haven’t been around Grubb who say it’s a ‘great hire’ are perhaps dabbling in fan service or getting caught up in the moment. It really could go either way and that’s why I’d call it an intriguing hire rather than a brilliant one. I’m happy to live with the unknown, though. For years the Seahawks were too predictable, too obviously heading for the same kind of season with the same kind of end-result. Give me a bit of mystery.

The hiring of Grubb will also ramp up talk of Huskies coming to Seattle through the draft. Not just the quarterback either — Troy Fautanu, Roger Rosengarten, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Dillon Johnson and Jack Westover are all options (Rome Odunze will be long gone as a top-six pick). For what it’s worth, when I was at the UW facility the word was Polk and Johnson were exactly the character fits Seattle looks for. O-line help is a need for Seattle and Scott Huff’s reported arrival as O-line coach certainly puts someone like Fautanu into play.

I do think connections to Michael Penix Jr, though, will be more than just hyperbole. It’s why I’ve put him with Seattle in my two recent mocks. For all of the doubts people have, and I’ve written about them in great detail myself, you just can’t get away from the fact that his arm talent is special. Field-tilting special. I’ll keep saying it — people weren’t taking Patrick Mahomes and his arm talent seriously until Kansas City moved up to get him. The month before the 2017 draft, Daniel Jeremiah didn’t even have him in his top-50 rankings.

I’m not saying Penix Jr is Mahomes. He isn’t. But don’t underestimate difference making talent. Penix Jr can make throws that I’d suggest only the likes of Mahomes and Josh Allen are capable of. He can put a football in places that shouldn’t be possible. He can fit throws downfield, off-balance, in-between defenders in a way that leaves your jaw-dropped. He also sometimes struggles with the shorter-intermediate game and he isn’t going be a mad-scrambler who can frustratingly avoid pressure and extend drives like Mahomes and Allen. But purely in terms of the arm — it’s special. If the Seahawks want to attack opponents downfield, Penix Jr is a serious option — especially now that they’ve appointed his old OC who he enjoyed a very strong working relationship with.

Aden Durde hire makes perfect sense

Immediately after Mike Macdonald’s opening press conference, it felt like this kind of appointment was likely at defensive coordinator. He spoke about calling plays initially but finding someone who, in time, could take on that responsibility. That felt like an up-and-comer type hire rather than an established former DC and that’s what the Seahawks have gone for.

Durde isn’t totally inexperienced though. In fact, he’s eight years older than the Head Coach. He’s risen through the ranks, from coaching in London to the top level. He’s been in the NFL and NFL Europe — it’s not as if he was just practising for a start-up English team and suddenly wound up in the league. He’s into his sixth season as a NFL coach and was highly regarded in Dallas.

Reaching out to people who’ve been around him, he’s said to be a great communicator and leader who was highly valued as a positional coach with the Cowboys. He was a contender to replace Dan Quinn but Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones, he couldn’t help but go for the splashy big-name instead.

The Seahawks didn’t need a wise head to be defensive coordinator because they already had Leslie Frasier to fill that need. This feels like a very solid plan to add someone with a D-line background to the staff, complementing Karl Scott (DB’s) and Kirk Olivadotti (linebackers).

Overall it’s an interesting staff being built. It might’ve been nice to steal from the Ravens given the consistency of success they have but it seems that won’t be possible. The Seahawks did face a challenge in appointing a Head Coach who has had a rapid ascension — he likely hasn’t spent the last two years building contacts to prepare to lead a team. They are building in ways they can at a time when there aren’t a ton of obvious targets who are unemployed on offense or defense.

You can sense an excitement among the fanbase again and that is to be welcomed. I’ll say again though, as with the Grubb hire, I think it’s more of an intriguing unknown. This whole plan is. It’ll be fascinating to see how the new era of Seahawks football plays out. Sometimes a bit of mystery is a good thing.

For more thoughts on the Grubb hire check out my latest video:

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