Author: Rob Staton (Page 51 of 424)

Friday was a busy day, firstly with the confirmation that Cowboys D-line coach Aden Durde would join the Seahawks as defensive coordinator. Then, with a flurry of Twitter activity and a few beers at Dino’s doing the rounds, it was confirmed that Ryan Grubb is the new offensive coordinator.

Ryan Grubb will be a fascinating experiment

It’s extremely rare that a college coach jumps over to lead an offense in the NFL. Grubb is tasked with building a system for the pro’s having never previously coached at this level. People who follow the Huskies say he’s perfectly prepared to do it but the proof, as they say, will be in the pudding.

It perhaps shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the Seahawks have gone in this direction. The market for offensive play-callers is extremely limited these days. Some of the up-and-coming names have been promoted to Head Coaching positions from positional jobs already. Others are already secure in coordinator jobs. This is why Shane Waldron immediately found employment in Chicago (when his former players can barely conceal their disdain for the job he did in Seattle). It’s why Luke Getsy and Kliff Kingsbury were pushed back into employment against all better judgement. It’s why Chip Kelly received NFL interviews.

You could argue it’s an inspired gamble by the Seahawks not to force things by going with a re-tread hire, instead looking to college. The NIL situation is changing the face of college football and they need to find a proper structure for it ASAP. Until that happens, there will be more retirements (Nick Saban) and more coaches desperate to run away from their teams (Kelly, Jeff Hafley). Not to mention the pro and college games are more closely aligned than ever schematically.

That said, there’s still a risk factor. I had a conversation recently with a vastly experienced NFL personnel man and, when talking about Michael Penix Jr, he bemoaned the pre-determined nature of Washington’s offense. You’re not going to be able to do that in the NFL. There’s also a danger that, as with Kelly in Philadelphia, you start quickly and then teams adjust and things become predictable and easy to defend very quickly. The Seahawks have to avoid being gimmicky and come up with something innovative and challenging. They can no longer be a team that ‘does what it does’ on offense — they need game-specific plans for each opponent, targeting weaknesses while finding ways to highlight their best weapons against those weaknesses. They need to master misdirection and be a team that adjusts well in-game.

What I do think this appointment tells us, however, is that the Seahawks want to be the aggressor. Washington’s offense was explosive and loved to take shots. Since Pete Carroll’s departure, this is what I think John Schneider has craved. It’s why, I think, Mike Kafka appealed so much because he would try to bring Andy Reid’s scheme to Seattle. This isn’t going to be three yards and a cloud of dust every play. This is going to be attack-minded.

Mike Macdonald isn’t going to be conservative. Look at Baltimore. The Ravens defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They benefitted so much from scoreboard pressure in 2023. The Seahawks, by appointing Grubb to build the offense, are likely to want to emulate that.

The other benefit is I’m not convinced Grubb will be rushing for the exit if things go well. That could’ve easily been the case with, say, Tanner Engstrand. Younger, successful offensive coordinators are quickly getting poached. Grubb may propel himself into that range but it seems unlikely a NFL team would ask him to run a whole operation after one full season in the league. Macdonald said at his press conference he wanted someone to build the offense and run it for years and in Grubb, they might have someone who — if successful — could be in place for at least 2-3 seasons if not longer, before any Head Coaching attention comes his way.

There’s another comparison to Baltimore in that they also appointed an offensive coordinator from college recently in Todd Monken. His background was previously NFL-heavy before going to Georgia, so it’s different. But perhaps Macdonald has experienced how beneficial it is to mesh some of the college spread options with a pro-flavour.

I’ve no idea whether this is a good move or not. I think people who haven’t been around Grubb who say it’s a ‘great hire’ are perhaps dabbling in fan service or getting caught up in the moment. It really could go either way and that’s why I’d call it an intriguing hire rather than a brilliant one. I’m happy to live with the unknown, though. For years the Seahawks were too predictable, too obviously heading for the same kind of season with the same kind of end-result. Give me a bit of mystery.

The hiring of Grubb will also ramp up talk of Huskies coming to Seattle through the draft. Not just the quarterback either — Troy Fautanu, Roger Rosengarten, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Dillon Johnson and Jack Westover are all options (Rome Odunze will be long gone as a top-six pick). For what it’s worth, when I was at the UW facility the word was Polk and Johnson were exactly the character fits Seattle looks for. O-line help is a need for Seattle and Scott Huff’s reported arrival as O-line coach certainly puts someone like Fautanu into play.

I do think connections to Michael Penix Jr, though, will be more than just hyperbole. It’s why I’ve put him with Seattle in my two recent mocks. For all of the doubts people have, and I’ve written about them in great detail myself, you just can’t get away from the fact that his arm talent is special. Field-tilting special. I’ll keep saying it — people weren’t taking Patrick Mahomes and his arm talent seriously until Kansas City moved up to get him. The month before the 2017 draft, Daniel Jeremiah didn’t even have him in his top-50 rankings.

I’m not saying Penix Jr is Mahomes. He isn’t. But don’t underestimate difference making talent. Penix Jr can make throws that I’d suggest only the likes of Mahomes and Josh Allen are capable of. He can put a football in places that shouldn’t be possible. He can fit throws downfield, off-balance, in-between defenders in a way that leaves your jaw-dropped. He also sometimes struggles with the shorter-intermediate game and he isn’t going be a mad-scrambler who can frustratingly avoid pressure and extend drives like Mahomes and Allen. But purely in terms of the arm — it’s special. If the Seahawks want to attack opponents downfield, Penix Jr is a serious option — especially now that they’ve appointed his old OC who he enjoyed a very strong working relationship with.

Aden Durde hire makes perfect sense

Immediately after Mike Macdonald’s opening press conference, it felt like this kind of appointment was likely at defensive coordinator. He spoke about calling plays initially but finding someone who, in time, could take on that responsibility. That felt like an up-and-comer type hire rather than an established former DC and that’s what the Seahawks have gone for.

Durde isn’t totally inexperienced though. In fact, he’s eight years older than the Head Coach. He’s risen through the ranks, from coaching in London to the top level. He’s been in the NFL and NFL Europe — it’s not as if he was just practising for a start-up English team and suddenly wound up in the league. He’s into his sixth season as a NFL coach and was highly regarded in Dallas.

Reaching out to people who’ve been around him, he’s said to be a great communicator and leader who was highly valued as a positional coach with the Cowboys. He was a contender to replace Dan Quinn but Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones, he couldn’t help but go for the splashy big-name instead.

The Seahawks didn’t need a wise head to be defensive coordinator because they already had Leslie Frasier to fill that need. This feels like a very solid plan to add someone with a D-line background to the staff, complementing Karl Scott (DB’s) and Kirk Olivadotti (linebackers).

Overall it’s an interesting staff being built. It might’ve been nice to steal from the Ravens given the consistency of success they have but it seems that won’t be possible. The Seahawks did face a challenge in appointing a Head Coach who has had a rapid ascension — he likely hasn’t spent the last two years building contacts to prepare to lead a team. They are building in ways they can at a time when there aren’t a ton of obvious targets who are unemployed on offense or defense.

You can sense an excitement among the fanbase again and that is to be welcomed. I’ll say again though, as with the Grubb hire, I think it’s more of an intriguing unknown. This whole plan is. It’ll be fascinating to see how the new era of Seahawks football plays out. Sometimes a bit of mystery is a good thing.

For more thoughts on the Grubb hire check out my latest video:

I was on KJR earlier talking to Softy & Dick about the appointment of Aden Durde as the new Seahawks defensive coordinator. Check it out below…

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

This offseason will be one of the most intriguing in recent Seahawk history.

A new coach.  A new system of ideas for both sides of the ball.

A General Manager with full personnel control for the first time.

The moves they make in the very near future will give us all kinds of things to break down and analyze:

— How they view the roster as it currently stands

— What players they value as key building blocks, critical system players — and which they do not

— What positions they value -and- what kind of offense and defense they anticipate implementing

— The team’s expectations for success in 2024.  Do they feel a few tweaks are in order, or do they need to take a step back in 2024 to take two or three steps forward in future seasons?

Moves they make in the next month or so will start to give us a sense of direction the team leadership is headed in.

Now until March 13

The Seahawks Can Negotiate Trades and Release Players

They can talk with teams about trading players, come to an agreement and even leak the news.  Trades will become official when the new league year starts March 13.

NFL teams can process a max of two post-June 1 releases before June 1 comes.  They process March 13, but there is nothing keeping them from leaking the news and letting the player start looking at his options.

A big key point that often goes forgotten by fans on this specific cut:  The player (and his cap hit) technically stays on the roster until after June 1.  A post-June 1 cut often gives teams more cap room than a regular cut but the tradeoff is they do not have access to that cap room until the summertime.

Straight releases can be done at this time as well.  It’s very likely Bryan Mone will be released to get the team in cap compliance.  Possibly Nick Bellore as well.

The Seahawks Have a Window to Exclusively Negotiate with their Unrestricted Free Agents

This is a key period for the Seahawks.  If they have designs on keeping some of their free agents, now is the time to get some intel on the market, initiate contract negotiations and plan accordingly.

The Seahawks have some key Unrestricted Free Agents they can exclusively talk to in this window:

Offense:  Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, Damien Lewis

Defense:  Leonard Williams, Jordyn Brooks, Devin Bush, Bobby Wagner

There are other UFA’s like Deejay Dallas, Evan Brown and Mario Edwards Jr but these players are most likely not a top priority (unless they are eager to sign an extremely friendly contract, that is).

The challenge is, they need to balance their books…

The Seahawks are Over the 2024 Salary Cap

Spotrac has them $800k over the salary cap, OTC has them as $5.2 million over currently.  It appears their cap rollover from 2023 is the main difference.  It will get sorted out but the main takeaway is the team needs to find some cap savings to get under the cap before the league year starts on March 13.

February 16: 2024 Salary Guarantees Come into Effect

Quarterback Geno Smith has no guaranteed money on his contract currently.  That will change five days after the Super Bowl, as his entire $12.7 million salary for 2024 becomes guaranteed.  We discussed the options the Seahawks have an the ramifications of their decisions here.

This date is not a ‘point of no return’ for the Seahawks with Smith but it most definitely limits their options regarding cutting him or renegotiating his contract.  If they get to this point without taking either of those actions, that signals that they either intend to trade him (there is another deadline for that action coming up shortly) or have him on the roster in 2024.

Wide Receiver D.K. Metcalf’s $13 million salary for 2024 is also guaranteed on this day.  There is not much to discuss with this as Metcalf is not going to be cut.

Defensive Lineman Dre’Mont Jones has a chunk of his salary locked on this date as well.  He currently has an $11 million salary with no guarantees for 2024.  On this date though, $7 million of that salary becomes guaranteed.  This is a ‘point of no return’ for Jones, as cutting him after that salary guarantees that would cost the Seahawks $2.1 million against the cap.

As it is, cutting him prior to this day would only net them $4.84 million of cap room and incur $13.33 million of dead cap charges.  A post-June1 cut would only net them $4.51 million of cap room, so that is not a preferable solution either.  A trade is the most likely option if the front office deems Jones as a player they can do without.

Kicker Jason Myers’ 2024 salary of $3.63 million guarantees on this date as well.  There is no practical value to releasing him before this date, as the salary saved would not exceed the dead cap hit.

February 20: Franchise Tag Window Opens (Window Closes March 5)

This one is moot for the Seahawks.  They do not have any cap room to reserve for a tag.  OTC has their tag cost projections and the odds the Seahawks will use the tag this year are very slim.

February 27 – March 4: The Scouting Combine

Player testing, medical checks and interviews are a key part of the team building process for all teams.

However, the worst-kept secret in the NFL is this gathering affords General Managers, coaches and agents of current players an open excuse to be in proximity to one another.  Savvy professionals on all sides use this opportunity to gauge the salary and trade markets for their players under contract as well as potential free agents.  It is not a coincidence that after last year’s combine finished March 6, Geno Smith had his new Seahawks contract agreed to the next day.

The Seahawks have a lot of ground to cover in this area, with a lot of moving parts on their roster.  Information gathering at this event is crucial to inform decisions they will make this offseason.

March 10:  Exclusive Window for Unrestricted Free Agents Closes

I do not need to tell you; a lot of value may be in the balance here.  Leonard Williams not being signed by this date opens the door to him signing elsewhere and as a result the Seahawks will have paid an exorbitant price in a trade to rent his services for 10 games.

March 11-13: The Legal Tampering Window Opens

Teams and players can meet and negotiate contracts.  With very little cap room, the Seahawks will likely either be very quiet or strike some low-level deals at this period.

However, a possibility exists that the team can sign a player and make a release or trade that opens the cap to cover that signing before the filing deadline.

March 13 1pm PST: The New League Year Begins

Trades, free agent signings and releases are processed by the league.

The Seahawks must be under the salary cap at this point.

It is important because another big event happens today…

Deadline to Tender Restricted Free Agents and Exclusive-Rights Free Agents

This needs to happen on this day and the Seahawks need the relevant cap room to have these tenders honored.

Simply put, tendering players keeps them from being unrestricted free agents, able to sign with any team without the Seahawks getting a chance for compensation.

Restricted Free Agents available to tender are Darrell Taylor and Michael Jackson.  Those will be two very interesting decisions.  Tackle Jake Curhan and Linebacker John Rhattigan are also RFA’s.

Keep in mind that RFA tenders are non-guaranteed.  They can rescind the tender and let the player hit free agency.  The biggest downside is they need cap space to hold those tenders.  Rescinding the tag opens that cap room back up.

Exclusive Rights Free Agents also need to be tendered and there will be some interesting team-building choices made there as well.  Defensive Lineman Myles Adams can be kept, as well as Offensive Linemen McLendon Curtis and Raiqwon O’Neal.  Those two were waiver claims and the Seahawks stashed them on their active roster all year in 2023.

March 18: Geno Smith Has a $9.6 million Roster Bonus Due

Another line in the sand when dealing with Smith’s contract and deciding what to do with him in 2024.

If the Seahawks cut him before Feb 16, this bonus disappears.

If they want to trade Smith, this roster bonus may be wielded by the acquiring team as a weapon to drive down the draft pick compensation in return.  At that point, the Seahawks will have to decide what they want.  If trading Smith is just a ‘moving on’ situation, or if they can live with his big number on the cap in 2024 without the assurance of a performance better than 2023.  They may trade eating some of that bonus in exchange for a better draft pick, like the Giants did when they got a second-round pick for eating almost $10 million of Leonard Williams’ contract.

Another factor teams can use to their advantage: cutting Geno Smith after March 18 represents almost $40 million in dead money.  That day is the point of no return for the Seahawks.

It is worth noting that had Smith achieved his $15 million of escalators, this roster bonus would be $24.6 million.  The point being, the Seahawks would have been forced to deal with this cap number and convert it to a signing bonus, renegotiate his contract or cut him loose.  The team knew that this day was coming no matter how Smith played in 2023.  I have no doubt that John Schneider has a plan in place for Smith.

What that plan is, we will need to wait and see.

March 24-27: League Meeting

Another opportunity to network and feel out trade and draft options among their fellow teams.

April 1:  First Day of Offseason Workouts

The Seahawks get the early workout benefit because they have a new coach.

April 25-27:  The Draft

A prime chance to shape the future of this roster with Schneider as the GM and Macdonald as the coach.  Keep in mind, rookie salaries do not hit the salary cap until their contracts are signed.

June 1:  Players Cut with a Post-June1 Designation Come Off the Roster and the Salary Cap Savings is Realized

Teams like Seattle with little cap room in February and March look forward to this day.  They gain cap space and can make official moves that push the roster forward, like signing their draft picks to contracts and making those late-summer moves that receive little fanfare but can make a real difference in their season.

First Week of the NFL Season

Vested veterans with large non-guaranteed salaries have their 2024 salary number guaranteed.  This would include players such as Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams and Tyler Lockett.

It is going to be a very busy offseason for the team.

Decisions are going to have to be made one after the other.

It is possible that by this time next month, we will have an idea of where the Seahawks are heading at the Quarterback position.  Also, whether they have a real, vested interest in returning some of their top players back to the team in 2024 — and who they will move on from as they reshape the roster.

This is my first attempt at a Seahawks seven round projection. There are two central thoughts in this mock that I wanted to focus on:

1. I think John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback

2. I think acquiring more stock will be seen as a priority

On the first one, I have a strong hunch about this. I think Schneider’s lukewarm words about Geno Smith at his press conference were revealing. I believe he has been eager to draft a new signal caller for some time, even during Russell Wilson’s time in Seattle.

Now that he is in charge I think his vision for the offense will be explosive plays, getting the most out of D.K. Metcalf and an aggressive, point-scoring unit. I know people are talking about Mike Macdonald, as a defensive coach, perhaps wanting to resort to running the ball and adopting a conservative style. I don’t agree. Baltimore had a lot of success because their offense was aggressive, they regularly played with a lead and that significantly helped the defense. I suspect that will be the mentality in Seattle.

I think there are quarterbacks in this class who will appeal to Schneider, while also acknowledging that the range for players like Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler is unpredictable.

On the second point, the Seahawks don’t have a second rounder because of the Leonard Williams trade. They do have two thirds. For the last two drafts, Schneider has had a treasure trove to work with due to the Wilson trade. I think he will seek to get more stock this year by moving around the board.

If there’s a can’t-miss player at #16 that could change. I think players like Jared Verse, for example, fit that profile. Assuming he and others like him are gone, I think the likelihood of moving down from #16 is strong. This is a good draft in the first four rounds. They have a number of holes and need picks to fill those holes with affordable talent.

The state of the roster pre-draft

In this projection, I have the Seahawks re-signing Leonard Williams to a big extension. Jordyn Brooks signs a one or two-year deal to try and bolster his stock under the leadership of the man who elevated Patrick Queen. I also have the Seahawks retaining Noah Fant, given the paucity of tight end alternatives in the draft and free agency. Drew Lock is retained.

Jamal Adams is cut to save money and there are other savings, outlined in my piece a few days ago. This includes trading Geno Smith before March 20th. I have them dealing him to the Steelers, who must know Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer. They’re already talking about trading for a quarterback. The Seahawks have very little leverage in negotiations due to the March 20th deadline, when his contract locks in to Seattle’s cap. That is the latest they can deal Smith to get the $13.8m saving. As such, they can’t get much more than a day three pick — with the Steelers giving them a fourth rounder (#120).

You might argue that’s not much compensation but if Schneider’s preference is to move off Smith and draft a quarterback anyway, getting anything in return would be a bonus. He does also turn 34-years-old this year.

The seven-round mock

Round 1 — #16 — the Seahawks trade down

I have the Seahawks moving down nine spots in a deal with the Green Bay Packers. They deal the 16th pick to Green Bay for the 25th pick and 58th pick. The trade makes sense per the trade chart, because Seattle’s pick costs 1000 points and Green Bay’s two picks cost 1050. The Packers also have two second rounders so they can afford to be aggressive. They move up because the mid-first round is going to be the back-end of where the top offensive tackles come off the board. This is a key need for the Packers and they can’t afford to wait. They move up for Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt — two left tackle prospects who are a bit over-hyped by the media and could be available at #16. Or, they could target Amarius Mims.

This trade gets the Seahawks back into the second round.

Round 1 — #25 — the Seahawks trade down (again)

Yep, we’re back to those days when people used to complain about the Seahawks constantly trading down. There’s method behind the madness though. In this scenario, Schneider has had his eye on a group of players all along at a particular position. They’re all still on the board, so he feels confident moving down four more spots to get further stock.

The Seahawks deal the #25 and #150 picks to Detroit for #29 and #92. Per the trade chart, Seattle’s two picks are worth 751 points and Detroit’s two picks are worth 752 points. Essentially, the Seahawks swap a fifth rounder for another third rounder. Given the draft class drops off after round four, this isn’t a big issue. For the Lions, it enables them to aggressively jump Arizona and Buffalo to get the defensive back they want — with a run ongoing in this range.

So far the Seahawks have completed two trades, gaining #58 (round two) and swapping #150 (round five) for #92 (round three).

Round 1 — #29 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)

I think Schneider might have interest in both of the big-name PAC-12 quarterbacks but Penix Jr is the one with the arm talent to be a crucial difference maker and ’tilt the field’. He is far from a flawless prospect and I’ve written many articles detailing some of the issues, including after watching him live. However — you can’t avoid the fact that he has a golden arm comparable to the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, two players Schneider absolutely wanted to draft.

If it’s Seattle’s intention, and I think it is, to feature an explosive, aggressive offense, Penix Jr fits the mould. Yes, he will have stretches where the short/intermediate accuracy is off and drives will stall. Yet he will also be a threat to be a big play on every snap. If you can produce a complementary running game to bring the safeties up, you could have the makings of a top-tier explosive offense.

The fact that the Seahawks are interested in hiring Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator adds to the intrigue. It’s not a given they’d seek to pair them together but it’s also pretty easy to make the connection. Penix Jr and Grubb had a good working relationship at UW.

I think the Seahawks could potentially be interested in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler too, perhaps even J.J. McCarthy (although I think his physical limitations might be an issue for Schneider). I get the sense most Seahawks fans want to focus only on the trenches with the early picks but having studied the draft class in great detail on the whole, there are plenty of options stretching into round three. I would suggest the difference between the mid-to-late first round O-liners and the day two O-liners is not that significant, it’s an excellent class. And while I really believe it’s vital to invest in the offensive and defensive lines, it’s also critical the Seahawks find a long term quarterback option.

I will probably look at a scenario down the line where the Seahawks trade down a bit from #16, take an O-liner, then maybe move up with a newly acquired round two pick to get a QB.

Round 2 — #58 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)

This is the pick acquired from Green Bay. I don’t expect the Seahawks to go chasing Baltimore’s big name free agents, in part because they don’t have the cap space to do so. I think instead they’ll set out to find their own versions. Jenkins could be viewed as a potential Justin Madubuike alternative.

The two players share a lot of similarities. Madubuike was physically brilliant and a blog favourite. He ran a 4.83 forty and a 1.73 10-yard split, highlighting his impressive upside. There were some concerns about his consistency and size (6-3, 293lbs) and he lasted into round three, despite many projecting a second round range.

Jenkins shares a similar profile. He’s extremely athletic and reportedly is capable of running a 4.33 shuttle and a 7.16 three-cone (Madubuike ran a 7.37). He’s undersized having mostly played in the 280’s and 290’s until this year where he topped 300lbs. His play on the field has at times been underwhelming and inconsistent. However, as with Madubuike, the talent is there.

Jenkins is of good character and that is a big factor for the Seahawks. Mike Macdonald will know all about him from his Michigan days. His dad and uncle both played at a good level in the league. I watched a video recently (see below) with his uncle Cullen Jenkins and he had a Seahawks helmet in his house, randomly, signed by Walter Jones, Mack Strong and others from that Super Bowl XL era. I wonder if Steve Hutchinson, another former Michigan man from that group, might have good intel on Jenkins through the family.

An alternative to Jenkins could be Clemson’s Ruke Orhorhoro. If Jenkins measures with shorter arms, Orhorhoro (who has great length with 34-inch arms) could be a viable option instead. He’s 6-3 and 288lbs and plays with a lot of power, quickness and intensity. He was a more impactful player in college but arguably has a lower ceiling.

Round 3 — #78 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)

This pick is why I don’t feel that passionately about having to go O-line in round one. Zinter is, for me, one of the absolute finest linemen in the class. I thought he was the best guard I saw in 2023, playing with an old-school mentality. You’re not going to be wowed by any testing results here but he’s going to get the job done up front. Watching him, I thought he screamed +8 year starter (at least) in the league.

He’s available here because he suffered a bad injury against Ohio State. By all accounts he’s recovering well from a broken leg and is expected to be back before next season. That will likely impact his stock and could mean a top-50 talent lasts into round three. If that happens, some team is going to get a stud. He is a plug-and-play guard who will elevate an offensive line in year one. Yes, he’ll need to go through all of the medical checks before the draft. However, everything from his brawling style of play, the way he attacks opponents right off the snap, loves to get up to the second level, can mix it up in the running game and tie down his side in pass protection makes Zinter a home-run pick.

I think he’s potentially as good as any interior lineman in this class and he could be available at a discount price. Furthermore, he is a high character player loved by team mates. Plus, it’s another Michigan player. I suspect both Macdonald and Hutchinson will know all about him. And he’s played with Olu Oluwatimi.

Round 3 — #81 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)

Mustapha might not have Kyle Hamilton’s size but his playing style is ideally suited to a similar role in Macdonald’s defense. Here’s what I said in yesterday’s article:

I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.

Mustapha is one of the more underrated players in the draft.

Round 3 — #92 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)

This is the pick acquired from Detroit. In this projection I have the Seahawks re-signing Jordyn Brooks. He needs a partner though and Watson, for me, is a strong candidate. Here’s what I wrote about him yesterday:

On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.

As with Mustapha, Watson is one of the more underrated players in the draft.

Round 4 — #118 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)

I’d suggest Darrell Taylor’s days are numbered in Seattle. He’s shown flashes of pass-rushing quality but I’m not convinced he’s disciplined enough for Macdonald’s scheme and he’s been a liability too often. Keeping him as a RFA feels unlikely. If they move on, though, they’ll need a replacement. Macdonald might prefer to bring a veteran in — he had great success with Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy — and that would open up the possibility for the Seahawks to return to their ‘picking a receiver in round four’ ways. If not, Booker would be a strong option here.

There are lots of things he has to work on. He needs to fill out a bit and get stronger. However, if we’re using the Ron Wolf approach of focusing on what a player can do, here’s what he is. Firstly — he has great length (34 inch arms) and there’s evidence on tape of him bench-pressing tackles to keep his frame clean and keep his eyes on the ball-carrier, disengaging and making plays vs the run. He can win with speed and bend off the edge — flashing incredible balance to round tackles. He has quickness and occasionally wins with power. There is plenty to work with here.

Round 4 — #120 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)

This is the pick acquired from the Steelers for Geno Smith. The Shrine Bowl brought McMahon to my attention and I produced this write up after studying him closely:

He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.

McMahon has the potential to be as good as the bigger names in this center class, which is deep. I think he could quickly compete with Oluwatimi to start and you’d have two strong, young options competing to be the long-term starter.

Round 6 — #193 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)

There are electric qualities to Smith as a receiver but the main reason I’m including him here is as a return man. It’s far too long since the Seahawks had a legit threat returning kick-offs and punts. Smith would be an immediate contributor in that regard, with the chance to work his way into seeing some playing time as a receiver down the line.

Round 7 — #232 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)

The Seahawks are going to need to find some depth at tight end and while Westover might not be the most conventional NFL TE, he consistently showed a clutch gene during his time at Washington. Penix Jr frequently made him work for key conversions and he always delivered. A team-first type who could develop a role on special teams quickly and act as a third-down option.

Full draft class

R1 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
R2 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)
R3 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
R3 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
R3 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
R4 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
R4 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)
R6 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)
R7 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)

I think all of these players could contribute quickly with multiple having the potential to be plus starters. Let me know your thoughts on the haul in the comments section.

Finally, I posted a video on my channel discussing the offensive coordinator search. Check it out by clicking here.

I promised an updated horizontal board after the Senior Bowl and here it is. It’s based on performances in Mobile plus further tape study (eg where I didn’t have a player on the board pre-Senior Bowl but have now watched enough to put them on the grid). I’ve also worked on some of the players who excelled at the Shrine Game. The new board has 199 players graded. The next update will probably come after the combine.

You can click the board below to enlarge. Then, I’ve listed some of the players I think ‘fit’ the Seahawks following the appointment of Mike Macdonald as Head Coach, there are notes on ‘risers and sliders’ and I spend some time discussing the quarterbacks.

Potential Seahawks targets

I was intrigued by this Reddit post that was doing the rounds last week, detailing a lot of useful information about Mike Macdonald and the Ravens.

I think it’s also important to remember that in the last two drafts the Seahawks have doubled down on character, with John Schneider talking about the importance of that aspect of evaluation and clarifying what a ‘Seahawk’ is.

The players below tick that box, fit the scheme which Macdonald may implement and could fill potential needs.

Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.

Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
I wish I’d studied Watson sooner. I watched him after hearing some positive reviews on day one of the Senior Bowl. On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
JPJ was just born to be a center. You only have to look at his frame, he’s a big square block. Yet you wouldn’t think he was 334lbs — he carries the weight so well and athletically he is exceptional. His balance when engaged is different level. There are examples of him on tape running downfield with ease, seeking out people to block. He can do everything well — turn defenders to open lanes, get his angles right to be in position to control, he recovers and adjusts well when he loses leverage initially, he has a strong back to plant the anchor, you can pull him and get him on the move and he makes it look easy, he reaches up to the second level, he attacks defenders early off the snap and gets into their pad-level to be the aggressor. He’s a good short-shuttle away from being a possible lock to go no lower than the Dolphins at #21 or Cowboys at #24. Character wise, he’s exactly what you’d expect from a center. This is a nice deep class at the position but JPJ has separated.

Luke McCaffrey (WR, Rice)
If the Seahawks part ways with Tyler Lockett this off-season, McCaffrey could be a ready-made replacement. Watching him during practise in Mobile, he had the same kind of subtle, gliding movements Lockett has to get open. He also has that same savviness and consistency and you can tell he’s an intelligent player. I don’t know if he can run a 4.40 like Lockett but he has the bloodlines to do it. As you’d expect given his deep NFL roots, he’s all football and there are zero character concerns. I think he’s another player who could be available in the third round range who provides tremendous value for whoever takes him.

Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
I was able to watch some of the Shrine Bowl highlights and the one player who stood out the most was McMahon. He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.

McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
If the Seahawks need a bigger defender to anchor their line, a lot of people are going to look to the flashier T’Vondre Sweat. I can see why — he’s a big name with incredible athleticism for his size. I do think, however, that Sweat’s weight is an issue. His conditioning wasn’t always great at Texas and they basically had to kick his arse into gear. Finally, in his last season, the light switched on and he delivered on his potential. But it was a bit of a battle until this point. The fact he refused to weigh-in at the Senior Bowl speaks to the problem. I’d rather focus on Jackson instead — the emotional leader of Texas A&M with no such baggage. He is a fiery, tone-setting defender with great size and the length/height to win many leverage battles (6-1, 331lbs, 33-inch arms). In Mobile he consistently drove blockers back into the pocket. He’s been a blog favourite for months so I already knew on tape that he can disrupt and not just carry blocks. McKinley is a physical, total-football player who can be a productive plus nose tackle for a long time.

Emani Bailey (RB, TCU)
I was blown away by his performance in the Senior Bowl game. Bailey is short but stocky with a 5-7, 210lbs frame. He does a really good job making the first man miss to get yardage. He can run through contact and based on tape evidence, you only have to watch for a couple of minutes to see him breaking tackles and finishing every run. Bailey is incredibly tough and physical but he also has the footwork and agility to go with it. He’s shifty to make people miss in the open field and he has enough acceleration to turn a good run into a great run. If he gets an opportunity to bounce outside he does it effectively and with no wasted motion, before bursting upfield. He runs good, crisp routes as a receiver and shows good hands. He can carve out a role very quickly as a third down back, with the potential to be a three-down runner in time. I want this guy on the team. Get him on the team as RB3.

There are other players I could list here as potential targets. As noted below, I think some of the quarterbacks fit Seattle. Payton Wilson the linebacker at NC State is exactly the kind of intense, play-every-snap-like-it’s-your-last prospect they could be really interested in. There are athletic defensive tackles — including Kris Jenkins at Michigan, who Macdonald will be familiar with. There are other linebackers including another Michigan man — Junior Colson — plus Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper and Cedric Gray that you can well imagine fitting the bill. Ladd McConkey feels like a Schneider-type player and I’d love to think offensive linemen like Zak Zinter, Graham Barton, Sedrick Van Pran, Zach Frazier and Roger Rosengarten would be considered too.

I’m told Ja’Lynn Polk is highly competitive with incredible character, so he could be a real value option. Two other Husky skill-players in Jalen McMillan and Dillon Johnson could also last longer than they should given their talent.

At #16, if either of Jared Verse or Chop Robinson last, sticking and picking might be the best move as both players have exciting pro-potential. I’d even consider throwing Quinyon Mitchell into the mix, given his blend of athleticism, swagger, physicality and ball-playing ability.

There are lots of players in this draft class and ample opportunity for the Seahawks to kick off their new era in style.

Key risers on the board

I decided to put Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga in the blue-chip category. From the minute I watched him during the season, he looked special. A physical monster who absorbs opponents when he makes contact, yet he has the footwork untypical of a man his size to get into position to connect in the first place. He won’t get out of the top-10, he dominated at the Senior Bowl and for me is the top tackle in the draft.

Missouri defensive end Darius Robinson had a great week and I’ve moved him up to round two. He’s getting first round buzz but I would offer some caution here. Robinson showed he can play across the line using power and technique. However, on tape and in the scrimmage you see a common occurrence. Robinson is a nearly-man. He’s nearly there to make the play a lot of the time. He’s more disruptive than productive. I think teams will value his frame, toughness, consistency and ability to challenge blockers but without amazing testing, I think he’s more of a top-45 pick than top-20.

Quinyon Mitchell was the star of the Senior Bowl for me and I’ve moved him into the first round range. I think he’ll be the first cornerback off the board. Jackson Powers-Johnson is also now in that grading area. Meanwhile, receivers Ladd McConkey and Roman Wilson received a boost, as did tight end Ben Sinnott.

Roger Rosengarten had an outstanding week and although I haven’t moved him into round one, I see him as a very likely top-45 pick.

Players who dropped

It was hard to see Jacob Cowing weigh-in at 165lbs then not make an enormous impression. If you’re that small, you need to be really good and I thought he was just OK in Mobile.

I moved Patrick Paul into round three. His technical flaws were glaring, as he kept spreading out his arms before making contact, exposing his chest way too much. It looks like a bad habit he’ll struggle to kick. Brandon Coleman didn’t play that well at guard, which is his likely position in the NFL. Charles Turner, a blog favourite, had a great first day but struggled after that. I’ve moved him into round three.

Kalen King had a really poor Senior Bowl and I’ve moved him deep into day three.

Thoughts on the quarterbacks

I have to say, I’ve heard and read a lot of inaccurate stuff about the quarterback performances in Mobile last week. As I said in my review, they all did OK. Nobody struggled. Nobody stood out. As Tony Pauline often says, the Senior Bowl can be a ‘king maker’ at the position. No kings were crowned this year and I’m not sure anyone did that much to shift their stock.

This is what I think about the class — and this is based on watching 18+ games on each of these players.

Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. It’s been obvious for two years. He is exceptionally talented and despite people suggesting otherwise, nobody has come close to knocking him off that perch. I’m not convinced Chicago and Shane Waldron are the match to unlock his limitless potential but that is almost certainly where he will begin his career.

Jayden Daniels is QB2. He is incredibly dynamic as a deep-ball passer and as a runner/playmaker. He will stretch teams in many different ways. He doesn’t have quite the lightning arm and running ability of Lamar Jackson but he’s not a million miles behind — and I’d argue he shows better touch and accuracy as a passer than Jackson did at Louisville. He will almost certainly be taken second overall by Washington I think.

Drake Maye, as I’ve said for over a year, is overrated. That doesn’t mean he’s bad. He isn’t. But the talk of him being the #1 pick was ridiculous and all of the people pedalling that should fess up before they ultimately return to Caleb Williams being the no-brainer choice over the coming weeks. He has physical tools, surprising mobility and creativity for his size and he can be a playmaker. He also takes too many ill-advised risks, makes too many errors and was outplayed by other quarterbacks in his time at UNC. Teams will be thoroughly mixed on him. I don’t think he’s a shoe-in to go third overall at all. He won’t drop deep into round one but it won’t be a surprise if he gets to #8. Josh Allen was a better prospect and he lasted to #7.

Then you have a group of four that are incredibly hard to place in terms of draft range. I can imagine Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr, Spencer Rattler and J.J. McCarthy all going very early. I can also imagine all four lasting into day two and in some cases, well into round three.

I’ll get McCarthy out of the way. I just don’t see it on tape. There’s nothing special about his game, he’s a light quarterback and he needs to add strength, particularly with his arm. I think he’s best suited to be drafted for a specific system that requires doing what you’re asked, rather than someone who is going to be an explosive downfield passer and difference maker. I have him in round three but virtually everyone assumes he will go in round one. I wouldn’t do it.

Onto Nix. Let’s just park the Oregon offense talk for a minute and talk about what he’s shown he is capable of. He can drive the ball downfield with great velocity and accuracy. He threw a flea-flicker at the Senior Bowl 60-yards on the money:

Great ball from Bo Nix, but Tez Walker can’t haul it in

The UNC receiver’s had a rough week pic.twitter.com/u4rKfd1ilt

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) February 3, 2024

That’s not common. Nix has excellent physical tools and is not limited in any way with his arm. He can make the quirky, modern-day special plays — as shown by his across-the-body throw on the run and numerous other big-time efforts while on the move. He’s shown he can throw accurately over the middle while also keeping an offense on the go, on time and he has helped elevate his team. There are zero character concerns. He has a good, solid frame with reasonable height (6-2) and he showed a great release in Mobile which is quick and will stand him in good stead at the next level.

For all of these reasons, it’s very possible he could be a high pick. Some teams will be concerned about how he fared at Auburn, they’ll consider the extreme user-friendly offense in Oregon, they’ll look at the occasions where he did have patches in games where things stalled. This is why I have him in round two. But the truth is, there are plenty of things to like about Nix and I think, as with Maye, some will like him a lot and others less so. His range could be #11 with Minnesota to #45 New Orleans. Nothing in-between that would shock me. It really is going to come down to how much you believe in the philosophy of focusing on what a player can do. But anyone saying he ‘sucks’ or ‘belongs in round four’ is talking out of their backside. There are tools to work with here and they carry value.

With Michael Penix Jr, his arm talent is remarkable. I think it’s a bit disappointing he didn’t let it rip in Mobile. I didn’t see one ‘wow’ throw all week and yet we know he can do it. Maybe the coaches could’ve got him and Nix to do a few deep-balls at the end of practise? They dialled that flea-flicker up in the game for Nix, I guess.

That said, on tape there’s ample evidence anyway. Penix Jr’s arm compares favourably to any of the high-profile rockets we’ve seen in recent years. Patrick Mahomes’ arm talent was no more spectacular at Texas Tech. In fact, you could make a case that Penix Jr’s best 10 throws at Washington were at least on par with Mahomes’ 10 best in college. I’m not sure anyone will top the pro-day Josh Allen had but Penix Jr is in that company. It’s not just the depth of throw either — it’s the complexity of the throws. He was delivering layered passes between defenders 30-35 yards downfield that most people can’t make after five years in the league.

Now, as discussed a lot during the season, he also had a long stretch where his play was not very good. His completion percentage sank, his play dipped considerably and there were games where he looked quite mediocre, short of the occasional explosive pick-me-up. There are times where you feel like he needs to constantly be a big-play quarterback and if the explosives aren’t there, I’m not sure he can manipulate a defense on the shorter/intermediate range. He might be relying on a good running game to be able to consistently get the looks downfield he wants.

There’s also the injury history, he doesn’t have anything like a prototype frame and the left-handed thing does matter, because it forces a lot of transition — not just structurally to the offense but your receivers and other players have to get used to it too. Again, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if someone falls in love with Penix Jr’s physical tools and wants to build an explosive, attack-minded offense that can live with several 50% completion days provided he’s able to get the chunk yards to go with it. Equally, the concerns might push him into the #50-70 range where he would, clearly, be well worth taking a chance on.

Finally Rattler. He might be the most naturally gifted in the class outside of Williams. He is such a talented thrower with a ‘born to do this’ style. He’s the only player of the group who has played in anything close to a pro-style offense or a pro-style environment behind South Carolina’s terrible O-line in the SEC. He still performed at a high level, limited mistakes in his final year, played within structure and showed he can create and improvise and make the big plays downfield.

I’ve been saying for a long time that he’ll go earlier than people think and it seems like the tide is turning nationally. From a pure talent standout, I think you could easily justify taking him ahead of Nix and Penix Jr. There are two things to raise though. Firstly, he looked small at the Senior Bowl. He was 6-0 and 219lbs so he has the bulk but he did look smaller with that height than say Nix at a similar weight. He is not a big, powerful quarterback — even though his natural talent enables him to get the ball deep downfield. Secondly, he is going to be asked a lot of questions about his time at Oklahoma. He needs to own up, admit to his mistakes and prove he’s a different person. I believe he’s already there, based on what I’ve seen from him. Teams will need that reassurance though because this is a guy you’d be taking with the chance he becomes the key player within your franchise.

Rattler won’t go lower than round three if he handles the character questions well. Then it’ll be a case of how much higher can he go than that.

Nix, Penix Jr and Rattler are far better than Malik Willis going into the league, who many fawned over despite the quite obvious back-breaking flaws in his game. They are not, however, anywhere near as enticing or as upside-laden as Anthony Richardson. They could end up being viewed in a similar way to Will Levis, who had outstanding physical talent but lasted to pick #33. None of the three are ‘bad’ players, they all have redeeming qualities that justify faith that they can start in the NFL. For teams needing a QB, they are worth a shot.

Furthermore — all three can feature in the kind of offense that I think John Schneider wants to run. I also think he is itching to take a quarterback, as I keep saying, and I think he’s lukewarm on Geno Smith and might be inclined to launch this new era of Seahawks football with a new QB.

That could mean trading down first before taking one, or even taking one with their second pick after moving down, or some other kind of plan. Let’s just say this though — I’d seriously caution against ruling out the Seahawks drafting a quarterback this year.

Today I was on with the great Puck & Jim on KJR — if you missed it you can listen below, please check it out…

Here are a few ideas kicking around in my head as the Seahawks start a new era under John Schneider and Mike Macdonald. I’ll touch on roster moves, free agency and the draft. I reserve the right to change all of these projections!

The need to create cap space

This is the first thing on the agenda. The Seahawks are projected to be $9.5m over the cap, in effective cap space, for 2024. They cannot function without making big savings and freeing up significant cap room, meaning difficult decisions need to be made.

Two Post-June 1st cuts

The Seahawks will almost certainly designate Jamal Adams as a post-June 1st cut. That spreads the dead money out over two years ($10.4m in 2024 and 2025) and immediately creates $16.5m.

The second cut is more painful. Tyler Lockett has been a tremendous servant to the Seahawks. I’ve gone back and forth on this one but his cap hit of $27m is just too big. The fact he has a similar cap hit in 2025 makes it difficult to lower his salary, without making long term commitments in a new deal. Designating Lockett as a post-June 1st cut creates $9.9m in dead money this year and next but saves the team $17m.

These two moves would create a situation where the Seahawks have $24m in effective cap space (money they can spend).

Parting with Adams feels inevitable. Lockett would be more significant. However, with another deep receiver class in the draft, there will be an opportunity to get a cheaper replacement who can operate as a WR3.

You might ask whether they can trade Lockett. Not before June 1st, because they’d only save $8m and would take on a $19m dead cap hit. Given the need for immediate relief, it’s more likely they’d have to go the post-June 1st route.

Further cuts to create cap space

Bryan Mone will almost certainly be cut to create an extra $5.3m. It’s possible they cut Nick Bellore to create another $2.8m — that’ll depend on whether Schneider values his special teams impact as much as Pete Carroll. These two further moves would give the Seahawks $32.1m to spend — a reasonable amount given the challenges ahead.

Players who won’t be cut

I don’t think Will Dissly will be cut before the draft. Both Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are free agents. Retaining one tight end on the roster feels necessary, then you can reassess down the line. There’s no financial difference between cutting Dissly in March or July, so provided you create enough space elsewhere, you can retain him. If they did cut Dissly because of his $10m cap hit, I think they’d try to re-sign him anyway.

I also don’t think Quandre Diggs will be cut before the draft. His obscene cap-hit of $21.2m is a problem but the Seahawks probably need to at least keep Diggs and Julian Love on the roster pre-draft, in order to not feel forced into a corner at the position. After the draft, parting with Diggs to create $10m in cap space is plausible if they feel comfortable with the position. This situation would be different, of course, if they prefer to try and sign a safety in free agency (eg Geno Stone). In that instance, Diggs would likely be gone. Transferring one big salary at safety for another, though, feels like bad business. They’re better off trying to find their own, cheaper version in the draft.

Spoiler alert — in my next horizontal board, I will have Wake Forest safety Malik Mustapha as my top ranked player at the position with a second round grade (with the expectation he’ll be available later than that).

What happens with Geno Smith?

I think anything’s on the table but I also think there are a few things that could be steering us towards the way this is heading.

Firstly, I keep reading and hearing people say that his cap hit in 2024 ($31.2m) is fair market value and works alongside, for example, his PFF grade at the quarterback position compared to the rest of the league. I don’t think this is the right way to approach this topic. These are the two main things to consider.

Firstly, what does Schneider think about the talent difference between Smith and Drew Lock? Not what you think, what Schneider thinks. If Lock costs, say, $6m for next season and Smith costs $31.2m, is that discrepancy in price worth it in the mind of the man actually making the decision?

I think there’s some evidence suggesting he doesn’t think the difference is worth it. Schneider was lukewarm about Smith in his solo press-conference, discussing how he’d had two mixed seasons with highs and lows. He didn’t say anything about the upcoming season (eg, ‘we’re looking for more consistency next season’) which would be a clear indicator that he’s part of their plans. He could’ve made reference to Smith being ‘their guy’ or just used some platitudes to offer praise. Instead, he gave an extremely non-committal answer.

Macdonald was also non-committal while name-dropping Lock (a free agent) a couple of times during his press conference, unprompted. The fact that Macdonald mentioned Lock, who would need to be re-signed, felt like a tell to me.

Secondly, it’s plausible Schneider intends to draft a quarterback this year. If that is their plan, having a cheaper bridge isn’t unreasonable if they want to give the rookie every opportunity to win the job this year.

There could be some benefit to that. If 2024 is about transitioning under a new Head Coach after 14 years, why not let a rookie take his growing pains with the hope that everyone comes out stronger for 2025 and beyond? It’s not unheard of for a new regime to begin by drafting a QB. They spent the last two years, after all, building a foundation. So he wouldn’t be coming into a hopeless situation.

I also think it’s possible they re-sign Lock and bring back Geno, albeit after reducing his 2024 cap-hit because as we keep mentioning — the Seahawks need to create cap space. Let’s review the options with Smith, courtesy of Curtis Allen’s excellent breakdown of the situation:

As the table shows, they can realistically lower his cap-hit by $4.8m or $5.5m without significant dead-cap damage down the line, by converting roster bonus money and salary. The question remains, though, does Schneider believe a $25-26m cap hit for Smith is still better value than Lock on far less, especially if he intends to draft a quarterback?

If they intend to part with Smith they basically have two options. Cut him before February 16th or trade him before March 20th. Those two options will create $13.8m in cap space.

I think both are on the table. It’s possible the February 16th date is going to come too soon for clarity to be established on what’s the right thing to do. They don’t even have an offensive coordinator yet. I also think Smith is too good to just discard. Thus, I think he’ll still be on the roster beyond that day.

The new league year starts on March 15th meaning they’d have ample opportunity, including at the combine, to discuss trade scenarios. Having a hard deadline of March 20th before Smith’s guarantees kick-in will give the Seahawks a major leverage headache in talks. However, two things ring true. One, there are a lot of teams who need a viable quarterback option in 2024. Two, Smith is good enough to start somewhere this year.

If, after the combine, teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Washington feel less confident about their draft options (or simply desire a bridge to a rookie) they might be prepared to make an offer. The Commanders have $62m in effective cap space, the Falcons have $20m, The Patriots $57m and the Raiders $31m. They can all realistically fit Smith into their budget. The Steelers are $19m in the red for effective cap space but have several levers they can pull to create room.

You won’t be able to drive a hard bargain because of the financial time constraints and the March 20th deadline before Smith’s contract is locked into Seattle’s budget. It’s possible, though, that they might be able to get a fourth or fifth rounder in return. That’d be better than nothing if the Seahawks’ intention is to go with Lock and a rookie anyway.

Of course they could also decide to roll with Smith but in order to do this, I think they’d almost certainly look to re-work his contract. From the minute he signed his deal, it screamed ‘they will do something next year’. Now we’ve reached that point. I think Schneider is simply preparing this team to cross to a younger quarterback, sooner rather than later. So the price of a bridge, and how he personally rates Smith vs Lock at their respective prices, will likely be the determining factor on what decision is made.

Another potential trade candidate

Dre’Mont Jones was a disappointment in his first year in Seattle. His contract is not too restrictive. If, later in the summer, they wanted to move him for a throwaway pick — they can create $11.5m in cap space. Again, this is probably one where they see where they are after the draft. By training camp, if they like their D-line depth, it’s possible they send him to another team. Remember — the Ravens signed Jadeveon Clowney in August and Kyle Van Noy in September. Having cap space later in the year to be active could help the Seahawks find similar value to aid their new Head Coach.

Who will they re-sign?

Jeff Howe from the Athletic is already reporting the Seahawks and Leonard Williams are hoping to get a deal done to keep him in Seattle. This is a no-brainer for the Seahawks. It might cost them approximately $17m a year but if they were willing to spend that kind of money on Dre’Mont Jones, they have to be willing to do it for Williams.

It’d significantly eat into Seattle’s available cap space — which is why they might have to make some difficult decisions on the likes of Smith, Lockett, Dissly and Diggs. They can’t fudge this re-shape under Macdonald and need to be ruthless. The aim is to craft a great team, not a ‘good enough not to be awful’ team. Williams can help them get to where they want to go as an impact player.

The defense in Baltimore relied a lot on the strong performances of Roquan Smith at middle linebacker. Given the lack of star options in the draft at MLB, I think the chances are they’ll look to re-sign Jordyn Brooks and incorporate him into that role. I’m not sure he’ll break the bank and they might be able to get him on a one or two-year deal so both parties, under the new regime, can assess fit.

I think the Seahawks will look to re-sign Noah Fant but it will depend on cost. Schneider was willing to draft him in the first round in 2019 so he’s clearly a fan and probably feels the Carroll regime, as with D.K. Metcalf, didn’t do enough to get the most out of Fant. He retains untapped potential and it’s hard to see how they will upgrade from him in the draft or free agency. Again though, it’ll depend what his market is.

I don’t think they will re-sign Bobby Wagner. For players like Damien Lewis and Evan Brown, it’ll likely come down to how cheap they are.

How will they approach free agency?

I think anyone expecting any big splashy moves will be disappointed. From what I can gather about the Ron Wolf philosophy, as noted in this article, the building of this team could be focused through the draft and any outside moves will be more calculated than splashy. Plus, that is how the Raves have operated too.

I don’t expect the Seahawks to go big game hunting for Patrick Queen, Justin Madubuike or Geno Stone. Madubuike will likely be franchised anyway.

I think the Seahawks will return to the approach of letting the market come to them. They’ll check the second and third wave of free agency and seek value.

The core of the team is going to be built through the draft. I don’t think they’re going to even attempt to transplant Baltimore to Seattle. They are going to create their own spine, some of the pieces of which are already in place. I think anyone who comes over from the Ravens will be due to opportunity and value, not because the Seahawks out-spent everyone else.

Will they draft a quarterback?

I think there’s a very reasonable chance they will. It’s been so long. This is John Schneider’s show now and I don’t think he’s going to ‘get by’ at the position. I think the Geno Smith plan was very much a Pete Carroll project, perhaps tied to the need to have a veteran starter vs a rookie given the nearing end of Carroll’s contract.

Schneider is now building the future of the Seahawks. He can afford to think long term. He’s always said his intention was to draft a quarterback most years. We’ll soon find out whether, when in charge of the whole operation, he’s prepared to do that.

There are some things to remember here. Firstly, as we noted in a recent article, Schneider reportedly wanted to draft Andy Dalton in the first round in 2011. I remember scouting Dalton at TCU. His career played out exactly as you can imagine based on what he showed in college.

It’s indicative of his willingness, perhaps, not to necessarily seek perfection. Dalton had reasonable tools, the ability to get the ball downfield, a long college career where he elevated his team and lots of production. He played in an aggressive, pass-heavy offense.

In this draft there are players who fit that mould in Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. They could be available in the same kind of range (#25) Schneider was prepared to draft Dalton. I don’t think it’s out of the question he will look to trade down, to try and get back into round two, before drafting a quarterback. Nix is a physical prototype and Penix Jr has an outstanding arm and can be very aggressive with his targets. These are things Schneider, I think, will value.

I also think Spencer Rattler has qualities that will appeal to Schneider, plus J.J. McCarthy has been around Mike Macdonald at Michigan, so they’ll have good intel there. I think there’s a very realistic chance the Seahawks draft one of these players.

There are other things to consider too. Schneider was in Green Bay when they took Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick. That was an opportunistic pick, and a shot to eventually replace Brett Favre. Here’s what scouts were saying about Rodgers before the 2005 draft:

“He’s a little short. The thing you worry about is those (Jeff) Tedford guys. They don’t do anything for a couple years and then they have a good year or two. Who of his quarterbacks has done what they’re supposed to do? None of them. Is he just working magic with great college quarterbacks or just manufacturing guys?”

“I like him. He’s a very talented guy. A lot of quarterbacks that were system people have not done very well. That puts up a red flag. Not that he is one of them. He could be an exception. But I can’t get it out of my craw.”

“I like him. I just don’t know if he’s maxed out. He’s more accurate than (Kyle) Boller but probably not as athletic. He’s a better player than Akili Smith. He’s more athletic than (Trent) Dilfer was. He’s a little more mobile than Joey Harrington. He had to go to a JC because no one would recruit him because they said he was too small. He’s been busting his (expletive) his whole life to get to this point. I just don’t know how much more he has to give.”

“I think he has some upside although there are some things that are just ordinary about him.”

“The guys that Tedford has had, what have they developed into? They’re too well-schooled. So mechanical. So robotic. I don’t know if they become good pro players. I think Rodgers is in that same mold.”

As you can see, not glowing reports and why he ultimately dropped. Green Bay capitalised. I’m sure Schneider will be mindful of stuff like this, waiting for an opportunity to similarly focus on what a player ‘can be’ not what he isn’t currently (a key Ron Wolf philosophy).

Despite drafting Rodgers, the Packers then drafted Brian Brohm in the second round in 2008. Again, they were taking shots. Buying as many raffle tickets as possible, as Schneider has said is his ideal approach to the position. It’s not unreasonable to think Schneider could take a quarterback early this year (first three rounds) and do the same next year as he tries to find a long-term top-level solution, now that he’s fully in charge.

Here’s another Packers-related note. Although this only took place recently, long after Schneider had departed Green Bay, their decision to draft the ‘floored but with upside’ Jordan Love is indicative of the Packers DNA. Again, planning ahead (Rodgers still on the roster) and buying into what a player can become. I am not convinced Schneider is solely focused on only drafting the perfect QB. I think, like Green Bay, he’s going to look for opportunities and value.

The Ravens, where Macdonald’s DNA was formed, have also done this. They won a Super Bowl after drafting Joe Flacco, from small school Delaware, with the #18 pick. They also drafted Lamar Jackson with the 32nd pick. Both Schneider and Macdonald have come from backgrounds where their previous teams have enjoyed great success drafting quarterbacks outside of the top-10.

Macdonald might be a defensive coach but I wouldn’t put it past the Seahawks to invest in a young quarterback with the first or second pick of this new era.

How will they approach the draft?

Let’s park the quarterback talk for the moment. At #16 I think there will be a selection of players who, if available, they might be willing to stick and pick. It’s still very early but I would suggest names like Taliese Fuaga, Jared Verse, Chop Robinson and J.C. Latham could fit into that category. Otherwise, trading down into the 20’s could potentially net the Seahawks a second rounder. Per the draft trade chart, the #16 pick is worth 1000 points. Green Bay’s pick at #25 is worth 720. The Packers have two second round picks, including #57 overall (worth 330 points). There could be a deal to be done here, especially if a left tackle is still available at #16 (a huge need for Green Bay).

There will still be good options in the 20’s such as, potentially, Troy Fautanu, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Graham Barton, Darius Robinson and others. Plus, this could be the range where you target a quarterback.

I think they will believe they can address multiple needs in this draft by finding ‘their’ players, thus justifying the trade down if a top prospect isn’t available. I think they will see this as an opportunity to further build a foundation, with real value to be had between rounds 2-4.

For example — there aren’t any linebackers slated for round one but there are good, rounded players who are projected to be available in the second, third or fourth round. It’s a deep class of receivers, which makes it easier to replace Lockett if he departs (Luke McCaffrey reminds me so much of Lockett). There are a lot of good offensive linemen and some depth across the defensive line too.

As for safety — as noted earlier, when I release my new horizontal board, Wake Forest’s Malik Mustapha will be the top ranked player at his position. I think he’s a second round talent who could be available in round three. His combination of speed, physicality, range, hitting, run defense and character make him an ideal pick to provide youth, leadership and speed at the position.

With players such as Mustapha, linebackers Payton Wilson, Junior Colson, Edgerrin Cooper, Cedric Gray and Nathaniel Watson, linemen such as Zak Zinter, Zach Frazier, Dylan McMahon and defensive linemen like McKinley Jackson — there are plenty of players you can imagine building up your core with, even if you draft a quarterback first.

Thus, there are reasons to be optimistic about the opportunities this team will have. I’d just caution against expecting any big free agent moves, I would expect a major focus on money saving this off-season and a renewed commitment to the draft — with the distinct possibility of a quarterback being selected.

It’s early and we’ll see how much (if any) of this comes to fruition. I’ll adapt these projections as we go along as always. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

Here are my takeaways from the Senior Bowl week, starting with the players who I think stood out the most. A quick note — this is based on a study of what was available on the NFL Network Broadcast and YouTube. There’s a ton of practise reps I haven’t seen, so keep that in mind. It’s also quite difficult to evaluate linebackers and safeties at the Senior Bowl during practise, because unlike receivers vs cornerbacks and the trench 1v1’s, there’s not a translatable practise that really suits either position.

Standout performers

Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
For me he was the clear star of the week. Mitchell displayed a constant X-factor in coverage — staying in the hip-pocket of receivers with natural fluidity and speed. He looked incredibly smooth in transition and his instincts when tracking the ball were top-notch. Mitchell can mix it up and be physical when he needs to be. He also has a confident swagger to his personality that most of the top cornerbacks possess. There’s just something a bit special about him and based on this evidence, don’t be shocked if he ends up going in the top-15.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
Angles, the ability to latch onto defenders quickly and be the aggressor and a strong base. JPJ showed all of these key characteristics for a center while also flashing plus athleticism, especially when he needed to recover and reset. He looked like the complete package during practise and if he tests well, will have a chance to go in the first round. He also battled a hamstring injury and only practised the first two days.

Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
Robinson looks the part physically with a big, thick frame and he flashed a versatile repertoire when attacking in 1v1’s. Off the edge he was able to win with power consistently, connecting and bull-rushing opponents into the pocket. There was evidence of a quick inside counter off the edge too. When they lined him up inside, he’d switch between power and excellent disengagement and a quick get-off to knife into the backfield. On every rep he was all-out in terms of effort and he looks like a player who can be very effective rushing inside and out. ‘NFL ready’ is a good way to describe him. If he tests well at the combine, he could be a first rounder.

Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
An absolute beast. I’m not sure why Tyler Guyton (who I like) has been name-checked among standout performers on different platforms and Fuaga isn’t the man getting more attention. He overwhelmed opponents in nearly every 1v1. He showed excellent footwork for a big man, a great ability to drop and set and once he latched on to an edge rusher it was over. He was just too big, too physical and too good. He will be OT1 on my new horizontal board and I don’t think he’ll get out of the top-10.

Luke McCaffrey (WR, Rice)
Watching McCaffrey run routes I kept thinking of Tyler Lockett. They have similar movement skills and quirks to get open and they’re both highly consistent and reliable. McCaffrey, as with Ladd McKonkey from Georgia, just had a knack of getting open and making the catch. While the other receivers had a few ups and downs, these two were very consistent. As second or third receivers, they could both be very productive. Roman Wilson from Michigan also stood out.

Honourable mentions

Emani Bailey (RB, TCU)
He was the real MVP in the game. Bailey is short but with a nice frame and he just looked so dynamic as a runner and receiver. On several occasions he made the first man miss to make positive gains on the ground. He finished every run and flashed an acceleration that could be really threatening if he breaks into the second level. As a receiver his routes were crisp and he showed good hands. The game went through him for the most part and as a depth piece at running back, he’s a very interesting prospect who could carve out a decent role in the NFL.

Braden Fiske (DT, Florida State)
It’s a shame he has shorter arms and a less than ideal frame because Fiske just picked up where he left off for Florida State. He’s a chaos creator inside and just finds a way to disrupt, whether that’s with power or quickness. He’s adept at knifing through gaps or bull-rushing and he’ll give all-out effort on every down. Whether he can carry on doing it at the next level is a big question but he had a good week.

Justin Eboigbe (DE, Alabama)
As with Fiske, the shorter arms are a bit of an issue but Eboigbe’s frame is otherwise prototypical. I liked him a lot at Alabama but was still surprised to see how athletic he looked in 1v1’s — winning not just with power but with speed. He’s not going to be a game-wrecker at the next level but he showed enough quickness, strength, versatility and range here to be a very useful rotational end who can move around the line.

Keith Randolph (DE, Illinois)
I thought he was surprisingly disruptive this week. He kept finding ways to get into the backfield with a mix of power and quickness. He was a good run defender in college but based on the 1v1 reps he looks like a potential fourth round 5-tech who can do a job at the next level.

Cam Hart (CB, Notre Dame)
Sticky in coverage all week and more polished than a lot of the other defenders, Hart has the size and skill to be a potential third round pick. There was a good moment in the game where he was blown-up by Cody Schrader on a run, so he came roaring back a couple of plays later with a big tackle in the backfield for a TFL on another running play. It’s very easy to imagine him competing for a starting job in the NFL.

Carlton Johnson (CB, Fresno State)
Whenever the receiver/cornerback 1v1’s took place, Johnson kept popping up and making plays. He’s undersized and had a few reps get away from him but overall he had a decent showing and did a better job than most getting a hand in there to break-up a pass, gaining position or recovering when needed.

Other names that impressed: Ben Sinnott (TE, Kansas State), Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State), Jha’Quan Jackson (WR, Tulane), Ray Davis (RB, Kentucky), Roger Rosengarten (T, Washington), Jarvis Brownlee Jr (CB, Louisville)

Thoughts on the quarterbacks

I’ve read and heard a lot about certain quarterbacks performing well in Mobile but the truth is, nobody really shone. I thought it was a mostly underwhelming week. Too many passes from the group were off target in 1v1’s which should be food and drink. We didn’t see any big flashes from Michael Penix Jr with his great arm. The most impressive physical feat was Bo Nix throwing +60 yards downfield on a flea-flicker during the game. It just all felt a bit average.

Spencer Rattler barely played in the game but seemed to win MVP for one decent touchdown throw. Overall I thought he did show some positives and he was just a bit sharper and more decisive than the rest. He didn’t do anything to massively elevate his stock though. He also looked small on the field compared to Penix Jr and Nix. Of the three, Nix fits the ‘prototype’ mould the best.

It’s going to be an unpredictable draft at the position once the top-three go off the board. Penix Jr could easily go in the first round or last into round three. I feel the same way about Rattler. Nix is a day two pick who might convince someone to take him earlier. J.J. McCarthy is a third rounder on my horizontal board but everyone says he’s going in round one. Trying to guess where they all land is going to be tricky and I’d say no real clarity was provided in Mobile.

Players who struggled

Kalen King (CB, Penn State)
All week he just played in first gear. He was consistently beat on routes, showed almost no physicality to disrupt routes, he didn’t seem that interested in playing the ball and he got beat badly at times too. It was a horrible week for an overrated player. I’ve dropped him into day three on the board.

Tez Walker (WR, North Carolina)
He’s a tease. You saw little flashes where he bursts into a break and separates with natural ease. He made difficult catches look easy at times. You saw flashes of natural talent. Then you’d also see him run a lazy route, show horrible catching technique, drop a pass, not track the ball properly. How easy is it going to be to bring all the good things together at the next level?

LaDarius Henderson (T, Michigan)
I was really keen to see him play because he was solid if unspectacular at Michigan. Yet here he struggled, showing very little resistance against speed or power and looking highly uncomfortable. A big disappointment.

Patrick Paul (T, Houston)
Paul is enormous and looks the part but my word his technique is shocking. Consistently he stretched out his arms and exposed his chest in blocking drills, allowing opponents to get into his frame. He did nothing to rectify it all week and it’s clearly a bad habit he’s developed. He’ll need a complete technique re-work at the next level or he’ll be a liability.