Author: Rob Staton (Page 58 of 428)

Amid the fear of an underwhelming appointment that may or may not be coming next week in Seattle, I do think one thing is pretty clear. John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. I think whatever happens with the appointment of a Head Coach, adding a new QB is going to be a priority, together with pairing the player with a strong developer of quarterbacks in one form or another.

Schneider’s lukewarm assessment of Geno Smith at his press conference was a major shift in energy from Pete Carroll’s unwavering support. With the team facing a cap-crunch this off-season, and with a degree of resetting required post-Carroll, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility they’ll just move on from Smith. Especially if they can’t work out a way to lower his $31.2m cap hit in 2024.

It’ll all come down to how Schneider feels about this class of quarterbacks. There are six prominent ones, who could all go in the top-50. The top-three of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye (who’s a bit overrated) will likely go in the top-10. After that, it’s a fluid situation. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy find a home in round one — with plenty of QB-desperate teams — or see any of them last into day two.

I do think at #16 they Seahawks will have options. If Schneider likes someone outside of the ‘big three’ he should be able to land them one way or another, even if it involves some movement. In this latest mock, I want to represent that possibility. It’s a two-round mock. Obviously the Seahawks don’t start with a second rounder but there are trades involved, so scroll down to find out what happens (with a full explanation after the mock).

Round One

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Williams will be the top pick and Chicago would be mad to trade out of this spot. In this scenario, they move Justin Fields to another team — Atlanta perhaps?

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
I think Daniels is the clear QB2 in the draft and with Lamar Jackson set to win MVP and potentially the Super Bowl, there’ll be little reason for the Commanders not to be inspired by their near neighbours in Baltimore and take Daniels.

#3 New England — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
Pass on Drake Maye? Yes. There will be mixed opinions on Maye. The Patriots instead decide to select the best overall talent in the draft, then trade back into round one later to get their QB.

#4 Arizona — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Odunze might be the safest pick in the draft. A++ character, body control, speed, hands, consistency and professionalism.

#5 LA Chargers — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The ideal pick for Jim Harbaugh and his offense.

#6 NY Giants — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
As mentioned, Maye is going to be a lot more polarising than people realise. Some teams will really like him, others will be less enthused. But he’ll go in the top-10.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I think he’s similar to A.J. Brown. Time to rectify an all-time error by the Titans.

#8 Atlanta — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals took him at #4. He’s the complete pass rusher.

#9 Chicago — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
In terms of quickness and bend off the edge, Robinson is off the charts. He’d create an incredible double-threat with Montez Sweat.

#10 NY Jets — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
Every time I watched him I was wowed. He’s incredibly light on his feet for his size but still packs a punch.

#11 Minnesota — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
I think he’s a bit overrated, his frame worries me and he’s not as electric to make up for it as Chop Robinson. Still, the league needs pass rushers.

#12 Denver — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
Incredible talent. As with Guyton, he’s so light on his feet despite his massive size. They are both brilliant prospects.

#13 Las Vegas — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
There’s nothing graceful about Fuaga. He’s a beast. He’ll line-up and hammer you.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I think he’s overrated by draft Twitter. All of the physical tools are there but he’s far from the finished product and needs plenty of technical work.

#15 Indianapolis — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
A fun person with great character and his coverage skills are very impressive. I’m not sure any of the CB class deserves to go this early but it’s a premium position.

#16 Green Bay (v/SEA) — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I think he’s too tall and I was always left wanting more but the rush on tackles forces Green Bay to leap up to ensure they don’t miss out.

#17 Jacksonville — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
He is factory-built to play the position, with minimal body-fat despite his enormous size. His potential is through the roof but he needs to stay on the field.

#18 Cincinnati — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
Technically very gifted and he uses his hands well but he’ll need to be strong at the POA and there are some medical concerns to check out.

#19 LA Rams — Troy Fautanu (G, Washington)
The Rams can bring him in and try him at tackle or guard.

#20 Pittsburgh — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
I get the sense he will have a great draft season and elevate up the board due to his natural talent. He’s so much more dynamic than Kenny Pickett and has a Steelers swag to his personality.

#21 Miami — Graham Barton (C, Duke)
A great blocker who may be unspectacular as a pro but he’ll play for a long time, probably at guard or center.

#22 Philadelphia — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
They desperately need more in the secondary.

#23 Houston (V/CLE) — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
I like him based on physical tools and potential but he’s undersized, kind of maxed out and he played in bursts in 2023 — he wasn’t a week-to-week dominant force. Testing will put him in round one though.

#24 Dallas — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
I think he’ll be dinged for his size and length but there’s no doubting his impact and ability to disrupt.

#25 Seattle (v/GB) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
I just get the sense John Schneider is set on drafting a quarterback. After trading down, he takes the plunge. Schneider was enamoured with the arm strength of Mahomes and Allen and Penix Jr, despite having flaws, has similar arm talent.

#26 Las Vegas Raiders (v/TB) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Fearing they’ll miss out on the QB’s, the Raiders move up to secure Nix — who feels like a player who could go either way in his pro-career.

#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Bralen Trice (DE, Washington)
Once Trice tests well at his size, he’ll get a lot more buzz in this range.

#28 Buffalo — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
Legette has the frame and his speed to be special, especially if Josh Allen is his quarterback.

#29 Kansas City — Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)
He’s such a technically gifted player, I think he’ll go earlier than many think.

#30 Detroit — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
It’s the position on defense they need to address the most.

#31 San Francisco — Cooper DeJean (S, Iowa)
A versatile chess-piece of a defender who will test well at the combine.

#32 New England (v/BAL) — J.J. McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Patriots trade back into the first round to take McCarthy.

Round Two

#33 Carolina — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
#34 Baltimore (v/NE) — Kool-aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
#35 Arizona — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
#36 Washington — Jordan Morgan (G, Arizona)
#37 LA Chargers — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
#38 Tennessee — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#39 NY Giants — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
#40 Washington (v/CHI) — Patrick Paul (T, Houston)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
#42 Minnesota — McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
#43 Atlanta — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#44 Tampa Bay (v/LV) — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
#46 Indianapolis — Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Brandon Coleman (G, TCU)
#48 Jacksonville — Chris Braswell (DE, Alabama)
#49 Cincinnati — Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
#51 Pittsburgh — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#52 LA Rams — Jonah Elliss (DE, Utah)
#53 Philadelphia — Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)
#54 Cleveland — Tez Walker (WR, North Carolina)
#55 Miami — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
#56 Dallas — Charles Turner (C, LSU)
#57 Tampa Bay — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#58 Seattle (v/GB) — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#59 Houston — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#60 Buffalo — Kalen King (CB, Penn State)
#61 Kansas City — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#62 Detroit — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#63 San Francisco — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#64 Baltimore — Christian Haynes (G, Connecticut)

The trades explained

Green Bay trades with the Seahawks in round one
The Packers want to move up and secure one of the top offensive tackles, so lean on their relationships in Seattle to move up nine spots. Per the trade chart, the Packers would owe 280 points. They have two second round picks so give the Seahawks #57 (330 points) and Seattle in turn gives Green Bay their fourth rounder, pick #118 (56 points).

The Raiders trade back into round one with Tampa Bay
Las Vegas needs a quarterback and having bolstered their line with their top pick, they move back into round one to get a QB. This costs them approximately 240 points according to the trade chart, so they give the Buccs their third rounder at #77 (205 points) and their fifth rounder at #148 (31.8 points).

The Patriots also trade back into round one for a quarterback
New England opts to take Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and wait on the quarterbacks, pouncing to tap into the Michigan QB pipeline again for J.J. McCarthy. They do a deal with Baltimore, moving from #34 to #32 to get the fifth year option. The jump of two picks costs them a fifth rounder (#137).

Thoughts on Seattle’s two picks

Firstly, the trade. I think the lack of depth beyond round three in this class — given all the players who stayed in school — makes a trade down like this with Green Bay appealing. It suits both parties because the Packers have two second rounders and might want to be aggressive to secure a franchise offensive tackle for Jordan Love. For the Seahawks, they get back into round two.

As noted earlier, I think Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. So why Michael Penix Jr, given in this scenario he trades down and QB’s #4-6 are all still available? The medical checks are important but Penix Jr ticks a lot of boxes for Schneider. Firstly, the arm talent is right up there with Mahomes/Allen who he previously rated highly. Penix Jr helped elevate his team to contender status and has a ton of starting experience in college, two things he’s often payed attention to. Schneider’s background is Green Bay and a big-play, gunslinger style of football — not methodical dinking and dunking. What Penix Jr lacks in subtlety and intermediate precision, he makes up for with dynamic power to thread the ball into tight windows downfield for key explosives.

Some teams will turn their noses up at Penix Jr and I maintain he could go anywhere from rounds one to three. It’s not just the injuries — it’s the inconsistent streak he had in the middle of the 2023 season, the pre-determined nature of the offense and being left-handed is a bigger issue than many realise. I do think, however, Schneider will see the appeal here provided he gets a full medical green light. In the right system, he also might be able to compete to start quickly.

Getting back into the late second round is also important for Seattle given their lack of cap space and multiple needs. I have them selecting Payton Wilson, who I’m a big fan of. As with Penix Jr, medical checks will be key. He’s stayed healthy for the last two seasons which is reassuring. Plenty of people won’t like the two picks due to the medical issues associated with both players’ history. Yet Wilson and Penix Jr present rare opportunities to get elite skills (Penix Jr — arm strength, Wilson — remarkable speed/pursuit/motor). I wrote more about Wilson in my horizontal board piece recently and have him graded as a blue-chip player. Here’s a recap:

Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.

He’d be ideal to place next to Jordyn Brooks (or someone cheaper) as a roaming playmaker who could quickly establish himself as one of the leagues best.

You tell me what you see from Wilson…

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section (just keep it civil)…

The day after Pete Carroll was fired, I appeared on Puck and Jim on KJR. Jason Puckett brought up a point that I’ve since heard in a couple of other places. John Schneider is known for being unpredictable in the draft. Could the same thing happen with his first Head Coaching appointment?

Initially it was difficult to imagine who that could be. Then the names started to come in, including a few most people hadn’t anticipated. Mike Kafka was on the list of interviewees and he’s since been invited for an in-person meeting this week.

Making him Pete Carroll’s replacement wouldn’t be any more surprising than, say, Patrick Graham or Ejiro Evero. Yet very few people talk about Kafka. He’s the one guy everyone overlooks. He’s an afterthought. I think there’s at least a chance if Schneider is going to pull off a shock, this could be his guy.

He’s not the most charismatic individual. He seems quite low-key, similar to Doug Pederson in that regard. In a recent interview on KJR, a New York based journalist told a story about how Kafka’s own mother, during an interview, referred to him as boring. Yet he’s had something of a meteoric rise through the coaching ranks after a journeyman playing career.

Here’s a quick recap. A former fourth round pick by the Andy Reid-led Eagles, he bounced around six different teams before trying his hand at coaching at alma mater Northwestern. It’s there he decided to commit to a coaching career and after a year, he hooked up with Reid in Kansas City, taking on the role of offensive quality control coach. A year later, in 2018, he was promoted to quarterbacks coach — working with a certain first-year starter called Patrick Mahomes.

After two seasons he added the title ‘passing game coordinator’ and he began to gain buzz around the media as a highly thought of lieutenant of Reid’s. He was also being touted as the heir apparent to Eric Bieniemy, should he be offered a job as a Head Coach. That never happened — so Kafka took the plunge in 2022 to move to New York and reconnect with Brian Daboll, who coached him during a stint in New England. Funnily enough, a year later Bieniemy moved on himself. You have to wonder how vaunted Kafka would be right now if he’d just waited one more year with the Chiefs and replaced Bieniemy.

With the Giants, he called plays (likely a promise that lured him to New York). However, Kafka was a victim of what is appearing to be an increasingly toxic environment under Daboll’s leadership as this article explains:

Daboll “constantly second-guessed” Kafka’s play calls, according to the report. That characterization isn’t a surprise based on conversations with team sources.

The Daily News also reported that Daboll took play calling away from Kafka “multiple times” during the season and even gave those duties to quarterback coach Shea Tierney in the second half of the Giants’ 49-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. I haven’t been able to confirm that, but a league source indicated Daboll took play-calling duties away from Kafka during the second half of a blowout loss midway through the season, and the Dallas game fits that description.

The New York Post published a story Tuesday that pushed back on aspects of the Daily News report (tabloid wars are fun!). The Post story made no mention of the play-calling situation, which is interesting since that’s the most sensitive topic from the Daily News story.

So, what does this all mean? The Giants are operating under the “expectation,” to use Daboll’s word from the day after the season ended, that Kafka will remain as offensive coordinator. But Kafka is a candidate for the Tennessee Titans’ and Seattle Seahawks’ head-coaching vacancies.

Kafka is a long shot for a head-coaching job, but it’s still possible he’ll leave the Giants this offseason. The Giants can block interviews for a lateral move, but if another team wants Kafka as OC and he’s interested in the opportunity, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s granted permission. So there’s still a chance Daboll will replace all three coordinators this offseason.

It all sounds fairly nightmarish and not exactly the platform to launch a Head Coaching career. Indeed if it’s possible Kafka could ask to be released from his contract, it’s not improbable the Seahawks are open to bringing him in as an offensive coordinator and that’s one of the reasons they want to further meet with him. This is a way to converse, when otherwise the Giants could block any request.

There are reasons, though, why the Seahawks might consider Kafka for the top job.

Firstly, Schneider respects Andy Reid. There’s a lot of love for Reid among the current and former Green Bay contingent, which Reid is part of (having worked for the Packers between 1992-98 before joining the Eagles). Kafka has been getting a seal of approval from Reid, who vouched for him when he was runner up for the Cardinals job a year ago:

Andy Reid said he endorsed Mike Kafka to Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell. "He’s a very intelligent, great human being,” Reid said. “The quarterback will love him. He’ll challenge him to be better than he even is now. But he’ll do a great job.'' Kafka worked for Reid in K.C.

— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz) February 7, 2023

He also had this to say about Kafka a year ago:

“He’d do a great job as a head coach. He’s good with people, and he’s smart. He’d be good with the ownership and good with players, too. Still be able to relate to the players. And you know, he’s young enough to where it wasn’t that long ago that he was playing.”

Let’s consider what we know here. Kafka worked for Reid and has likely adopted his offensive approach and philosophy. He has been praised for his role in the development of Patrick Mahomes. He’s described as a good person with high intelligence.

At least initially, Daboll also offered plenty of praise:

When asked recently why he hired Kafka, Daboll said it was because Kafka had good presence in his coordinator interview, handling the room well. He could tell Kafka would be a good teammate. He could also tell Kafka was smart.

He might not fit the mould of a Dan Campbell type leader — and his press conferences, it has to be said, can be positively sleep-inducing. However, we don’t actually know what Schneider is looking for.

There’s at least some thought, as I noted in my horizontal board piece, that this is going to be a very different Seahawks moving forward. Schneider’s vision could be offense-orientated. Appointing a coach steeped in an ideology you like with a track record for developing QB’s, having worked for Andy Reid and mentored Patrick Mahomes — that could be appealing to Schneider. Begin drafting quarterbacks until you get the guy, then pair the coach and signal-caller together and make that the identity of the team.

That feels very Green Bay, very Andy Reid and, I guess, very John Schneider.

It won’t be the most inspiring direction but it does feel left-field and, to some degree, plausible. I don’t think Schneider is committed to Geno Smith at all. I’ll just copy and paste my thoughts from the horizontal board article:

I think John Schneider is itching to take a quarterback. I’m just trying to work out what I think that means. In Green Bay, they would take them frequently. Schneider hasn’t done that but was it a decision influenced by Pete Carroll? Could we now start to see Schneider taking shots at the position, until he gets ‘the guy’?

For that reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a chance on someone at #16. Rightly or wrongly. Can I see Schneider believing the physical qualities of Nix or Penix Jr are worth rolling the dice on in the middle of round one? Maybe.

After all, he reportedly was willing to draft Andy Dalton in round one in 2011. Here’s an article from Danny O’Neil, reflecting on what happened:

The Seahawks very much considered choosing Dalton with the 25th pick of the 2011 draft. In fact, there were rumors his name was written on a draft card that never turned in…

Now, before we continue it’s important to offer a few qualifiers. The information that forms the basis from this story comes from multiple sources who were actually present in Seattle’s draft room during the two years in question. It does not, however, come from Schneider, and that’s important to disclose because not only does he figure so prominently in the storyline, but he is adamant about avoiding giving any one person credit for a team’s selection. That’s the way he has been since the day he was introduced as Seattle’s general manager in 2010.

Dalton was a serious consideration in the first round for Seattle. In fact, Schneider advocated for that selection. The issue was one of consensus. Specifically, Schneider didn’t want to force his conviction on a player on the rest of the scouting department and the entire franchise.

This wasn’t about who has the final say, either. Schneider runs Seattle’s draft. The question was how he would run it, and he has never wanted a front office in which his voice is the only one that makes the decisions.

This is a really important piece of information. Schneider is now in charge of decision making at all levels. It’s not unrealistic to think that left to his own devices, Schneider would’ve taken Dalton. Now, is he going to be emboldened to make that call?

Dalton played in an extreme spread, four-verticals heavy offense at TCU. It was user-friendly. He played very well in college but not in a jaw-dropping way. Schneider liked him. Could he feel similarly about, say, Bo Nix at #16? I wouldn’t rule it out even if I think he’s a day-two pick.

Schneider’s answer when asked about Geno Smith last week was extremely lukewarm and offered no hint of commitment. Could he just outright move on, with the intention of proceeding with Drew Lock as a safety-net and someone taken at #16 as the way forward? I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility.

Let’s imagine a scenario where the Seahawks cut Geno Smith to save money with the intention of drafting a quarterback, potentially to start quickly. If Schneider is convinced Kafka is a great developer of quarterbacks, he might want to pair him with the younger player. If you can land a talented defensive coordinator and build a quality staff around Kafka, you might’ve set up something akin to a younger version of Andy Reid’s operation.

At the end of the day, they’re talking to Kafka about replacing Pete Carroll. He has to at least be in the running. Is it possible they snub some of the bigger names and pluck Kafka out of the Giants, challenging him to do with a younger QB what he did with Mahomes?

It’s worth thinking about.

And as Jeff Simmons has been quick to point out — it’s not always the highly successful coordinators who make the best Head Coaches. Kafka might not be the most outwardly exciting candidate — but that doesn’t mean he’s not up to the job.

In the last few days I’ve gone and forth on what might be going on here. There are some facts to consider. The Seahawks won’t have fulfilled the Rooney Rule until they interview Ejiro Evero on Saturday. As of today, they have not set up a second interview for next week with Ben Johnson. A lot of people in the media are going back to Dan Quinn being the ‘clubhouse leader’ while others continue to suggest that isn’t the case. They never arranged a second interview with Bobby Slowik or Frank Smith.

It’d be a lot more reassuring, at least for those of us hoping there’s still a chance of Ben Johnson coming to Seattle, if a second interview was announced. He’s due in Washington on Tuesday. The fear has to be that they won’t let him out of the building without a deal, thus leaving the Seahawks to pick from the people they interviewed this week or wait until February 12th to speak to Mike Macdonald.

Adam Schefter is saying the Seahawks and Commanders want to wait until after the conference Championship games to proceed. Mike Holmgren has also said he thinks John Schneider would like to appoint Ben Johnson if he can. You do wonder, if the Lions lose and the Ravens win this weekend, whether the two teams remaining with vacancies will make a big push to employ Johnson. It seems pretty clear the Commanders have the upper hand given all the talk about a relationship with GM Adam Peters and the fact he already has an interview booked in for Tuesday. It still seems somewhat fanciful that the Seahawks would wait until mid-February to even have an initial conversation with Macdonald. So perhaps next week is key. Can they persuade Johnson not to go to Washington? Or do they resort to Plan B, from the list of candidates they have been interviewing?

I’m going to post a mock draft either later today or tomorrow. Briefly though, I want to share a thought that has lingered on my mind since Tuesday.

What exactly is the Seahawks plan? I’ve seen a few different reporters hint that they’re not close to concluding their coaching search. Tom Pelissero, when he announced the list of second interviewees, said there’d be others and called it a thorough process. Albert Breer said the Seahawks were being open-minded about the search and had interest in Mike Macdonald (who they can’t even speak to until after the Super Bowl). Tony Pauline cited sources claiming the franchise has a “long way to go before making their final decision.”

If the process is drawn out and the Seahawks land a top candidate, then it’ll all be worthwhile. A job well done. However, I’m starting to have some reservations.

For example, why haven’t the Seahawks requested second interviews with Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik yet? The Falcons and Commanders have done so with both. There’s nothing stopping the Seahawks making a request, even with Johnson preparing for the NFC Championship game.

Is there no intention to speak to them? Are they just biding their time? Why wouldn’t you arrange an interview with Johnson now? If nothing else it shows a degree of keenness in a competitive market for his services.

No interview has been arranged or conducted with Mike Vrabel. Increasingly, he doesn’t appear to be a candidate.

So unless they’ve decided to wait it out for Mike Macdonald, who they’re yet to even have an initial interview with, you can’t help but wonder whether this second interview list is who they’re picking from.

Maybe they will wait for Macdonald? I’m not sure how wise that would be, given you’d be weeks away from building a staff while other teams begin that process already. The big question with that hire would undoubtedly be, who will be his offensive coordinator? Several potential options will be hired by mid-February.

Perhaps we’ll discover in the next 48 hours that the Seahawks do intend to speak to Johnson for a second time and the process will actually continue into next week? However, as I noted in a video on Tuesday, I’m starting to fear that this search has been little more than due diligence.

Has Dan Quinn been the target all along?

You have to go through a process due to obligations over the Rooney Rule, so a Quinn coronation was never viable. In the aftermath of the Green Bay debacle in the playoffs it would’ve been especially difficult to rush through a Quinn appointment.

Some of the steam off that Dallas disaster has died down. While many fans will see it as a disappointing and underwhelming hire, others will convince themselves it can work.

Maybe it’s been a true process and they simply approached it with a mindset of seeing if anyone can usurp Quinn? That’s viable. Yet with no known interviews scheduled for next week, you’d be forgiven for wondering if they’ll just announce someone on Sunday or Monday and that’ll be it.

The problem with Quinn — or even Mike Macdonald for that matter — is exactly what we saw today. Dave Canales has been hired by the Panthers after one solitary ‘decent’ season as an offensive coordinator. He produced the 20th best offense, per DVOA, and Baker Mayfield was the 19th ranked quarterback per PFF (level with Derek Carr).

An achievement as relatively unspectacular as that enables an offensive coordinator to claim a Head Coaching job these days.

Quinn, Macdonald, Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Raheem Morris — they’ll all only be as good as their offensive play-caller and quarterback. If they appoint even a reasonable offensive coordinator, the chances are they’ll need replacing. How many times can you do that successfully? And when other teams are considering employing Kliff Kingsbury, Shane Waldron has already been snapped up and Chip Kelly’s name is doing the rounds — isn’t it true that there’s now a dearth of prospective or unemployed competent coordinators? Mostly because the better ones are now Head Coaches or about to become Head Coaches.

It’s why the Seahawks should really be focusing on finding an offensive mind to lead this team, which has already been built to be offensive-led with so much investment in the skill-positions.Then they should try and coax one of Evero, Graham or someone else to come and be an Assistant Head Coach and defensive mastermind.

Until we hear of further interviews scheduled, there has to be an increasing fear (at least if, like me, you think it’d be a underwhelming appointment) that all along it was Quinn. The man who Kyle Shanahan smirks about beating, who couldn’t get a handle on a McVay protégé in the playoffs and has had to rely on Micah Parsons and the LOB for success as a coordinator — neither of which would be going with him to Seattle in 2024.

I published my first horizontal board on the 1st December and it’s time for an update. This is a pre-Senior Bowl version. I’ll post another board after the event in Mobile. There’s a lot of information on the draft below, including a must-read theory on the future at quarterback in Seattle. Look at the board, read the notes and let me know what you think in the comments section.

Click the image below to enlarge:

It’s a whole new world

The NIL era has changed college football and the draft forever. An incredible number of players have returned to school or entered the transfer portal and in the end, only 54 eligible players turned pro. This has significantly impacted the depth of the draft.

In terms of quarterbacks, Georgia’s Carson Beck, Missouri’s Brady Cook and Texas’ Quinn Ewers all opted not to turn pro and return to their scools. Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), Cam Ward (Miami), Will Howard (Ohio State), Will Rogers (TBD), KJ Jefferson (UCF), Riley Leonard (Notre Dame), Grayson McCall (NC State) and DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State) all transferred.

What was once considered a uniquely deep and gifted quarterback class has been stripped down considerably.

A large number of players at other positions also decided not to turn pro:

— TreyVeyon Henderson, Tyleik Williams, J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, Emeka Egbuka and Donovan Jackson are all staying at Ohio State

— Wisconsin tackle Jack Nelson

— Notre Dame defensive tackles Howard Cross and Rylie Mills

— West Virginia defensive lineman Sean Martin

— Arkansas pass rusher Landon Jackson

— Miami receiver Xavier Restrepo

— Tennessee receiver Bru McCoy

— UCF receiver Kobe Hudson

— Oregon receiver Tez Johnson

— Kansas State running back DJ Giddens

— Texas defensive tackle Alfred Collins

— Louisville defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte

— North Carolina defensive end Kaimon Rucker

— NC State defensive end Davin Vann

— Georgia linebacker Smael Mondon

— Clemson linebacker Barrett Carter

— Utah tight end Brant Kuithe

— Penn State tight end Tyler Warren

— Iowa tight end Luke Lachey

Meanwhile, receivers Josh Kelly (Texas Tech), and Julian Fleming (Penn State) have transferred, as has cornerback Trikweze Bridges (Florida) and running back Raheim Sanders (South Carolina). Texas Tech pass rusher Steve Linton has entered the portal but is yet to select a new team.

This updated horizontal board looks a lot thinner than it did a few weeks ago and the depth has evaporated. There are many players I am yet to study, including several who are competing in Mobile. They will be added in time. If I’ve missed any names on the board who chose not to declare, let me know.

More blue-chip players

I’ve spent the last two years studying quarterbacks first, trying to watch all of their games, while also staying across every other position. Once I’m done with the QB’s, I do a lot more study on the others. As a consequence, I’ve added five players to the ‘blue chip’ bracket — receivers Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, pass rushers Jared Verse and Chop Robinson and linebacker Payton Wilson. All five, in my opinion, are worthy of going in the top-10, pre-testing and medicals — along with Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers.

Verse is a machine and capable of being a disruptive game-wrecker off the edge. His initial burst and quickness is excellent and he fires into blockers with great power. From there, he’s adept at using his hands to disengage and break off blocks. He can win with speed, he has a variety of moves and he has the size and aggression to defend the run. I think he could go in the top-five and the top-10 feels like a certainty. He’s a complete pass rusher.

Robinson has rare bend and speed to round the edge and burst to the quarterback. He will likely be a testing phenom at the combine and you see extreme quickness and explosion in his play. He’s very much a 3-4 OLB type and doesn’t have the sand in his pants currently to be a reliable run defender. However, as a pass-rush threat he could excel very quickly and a creative defensive coordinator will find ways to get him working to the QB.

Odunze is a remarkable player. When I visited the Husky facility I was told he can run in the 4.3’s. He has A++ character. His body control and ball-tracking is elite. He is reliable, dominant and will be a pillar of consistency on and off the field. Nabers, meanwhile, also has excellent body control and a fantastic ability to compete 1v1 in the end zone. He can stretch opponents running across the field while also being used as a red-line force. I think he shares some similarities in terms of playing style to A.J. Brown. He won’t test brilliantly but he’s just a pain in the arse to cover.

Of the group of blue-chippers, Wilson is the one who won’t go as high as I’ve graded him. This is due to a history of shoulder injuries, a torn ACL and hamstring issues. He’s now played back-to-back years without an injury, which is encouraging, but medical tests will determine how early he is drafted. That said, I challenge anyone to watch his tape at NC State and tell me he’s not one of the 10 best players in this draft in terms of talent, effort and production.

Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.

I’ve never wanted a player to pass a medical more since starting this blog in 2008. Wilson is a special, special talent and his potential has no limits.

What are the positions of strength in the draft?

It’s a really thick offensive line class. I have six tackles I’d be prepared to draft in round one, plus a tackle/guard convert. I have a further three tackles, five centers and four guards graded in round two. If you want to build a strong O-line for the future, this is a good draft to try and do it.

It’s also a deep receiver class, with elite talent at the top and numbers stretching well into round three. So the two key strengths are O-line and receiver.

What are the weaker positions?

There are no running backs worthy of being drafted before the third round. It’s a thin edge rusher class that is very top heavy and the defensive tackle group is overrated. As usual, the safety and tight end positions are thin.

Where are we at with the quarterbacks?

It’s one of the harder classes to analyse and I’ve agonised far more on this group than any other in recent memory.

Firstly though, something obvious. Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. His obscene natural talent, arm strength and creativity make it a no-brainer. For me, Jayden Daniels is the clear QB2 thanks to a combination of deep passing ability, incredible playmaking as a runner and a smooth, steady progression throughout his career.

I wanted to represent the separation between these two players and the next four by grading them as I have on the updated board. Frankly, though, I think you can make a case for any of the next four going on day one. That’s the dilemma with the class. You can focus on what any of them ‘can’ do — and their positive traits — and sell taking them early. This isn’t like the 2022 class with Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder where they all obviously looked like third round types (and that’s where I had all of them on my board).

I think Drake Maye will polarise teams, with some loving the size, risk-taker mentality, arm strength and surprising mobility. Others may think he’s too reckless and streaky. I’m not sure Maye will go as high as some think — and I’ve been consistent on that for the last year.

J.J. McCarthy has shown nothing at Michigan to warrant being placed in the first frame but the belief is someone will take him. I’m struggling to work out why. For me, he’s a mid-round talent with limited upside. I’ve graded him in round three.

The Oregon offense is a real challenge when it comes to Bo Nix. The lack of any pressure faced and the extreme user-friendly offense, consisting of getting the ball out as quickly as possible (approx 30% of throws behind the LOS) makes a projection for Nix extremely difficult. He faced only 79 pressures in 2023, the fewest in the whole of college football. His completion percentage (77.3%) was way ahead of anyone else, mainly because of the sheer number of high percentage completions. Nix attempted 105 screen passes in 2023, third most among quarterbacks.

There are moments on tape where he shows physical brilliance, accuracy and touch. Yet it really feels like the the environment is perfectly set-up for him. When he gets to the next level, everything will be different and far more challenging. How will he handle that? It’s almost impossible to say with any certainty. You can imagine positive and negative outcomes, quite easily.

His throwing motion is elongated at times with the arm dropping down. What happens to that release when he’s being harassed? When he faces pressure, will he resort back to Auburn Nix? Can he throw with timing, progress through reads under fire and make layered, accurate completions under duress? He is a very good athlete, teams will like his personality and the Senior Bowl and combine setting will suit him — he could easily wow at both events, convincing someone to draft him significantly earlier than the grade warrants.

Penix Jr remains one of the harder players to judge because his arm talent is incredible and worthy of a top grade, yet there are legit concerns to also contemplate. It’s no exaggeration to say it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he went 16th overall or 76th.

You’ve got the injury history and teams will pay close attention to the combine medicals. Being left handed requires far more adjustment to your offense than most realise. His play dipped considerably for a large stretch this past season, as noted in a previous article:

He started the year throwing 74.9% completions in his first five games. He then went on an eight-game run where that dropped to 60.1%. During these two same split periods, his average ‘big time throws’ per game stayed exactly the same (2.6 per game). So he was still completing the big, eye-catching plays — there were just an increasing number of bad throws/incompletions to go with it. This is also why his PFF grade in the same periods started well at 89.9 and then tailed off to 71.6.

This all coincided with an increase in pressures from 6.6 per game to 10.7 per game. Once the ‘easy pitch-and-catch’ games were gone, the production and performance dropped. The game against Oregon State was a great example. He had a couple of outstanding ‘wow’ plays that get you out of your seat shouting ‘top-10 pick’. He also had plenty of wild chucks to nowhere, including over an hour of play where he didn’t have a completion. You can’t blame the weather either. He was erratic. That game basically encapsulates him as a player. Big win, big throws — but also a lot of icky moments.

There are also concerns about the offense he played in throughout his college career, at Indiana and Washington. My source noted to me last week, there’s a play vs Arizona where he looked off to one side of the field, then came back to the pre-determined intended target. The thing is, his receiver had fallen down during his the route. Penix Jr threw it anyway, because that’s what the scheme called for. It’s pre-determined. This is a world away from the NFL.

When you watch some of his games in the middle section of the season, it felt very boom or bust. He’d hit on big plays to supercharge the offense but then have stretches where he’d throw a ton of incomplete passes and couldn’t function. Can he throw to the short/intermediate level with timing and accuracy or is he constantly going to need to look for the big play?

Back to the positives though, and he absolutely played a major role in elevating the Huskies to near National glory. In the big moments he often delivered — especially against Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship and Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The arm talent is special and I’d argue is of a similar level to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. He’s a far better athlete than people realise (he can jump a 38-inch vertical). As I mentioned, Penix Jr could go in the first round or the third round. Remember, a year ago people were talking about Hendon Hooker going in the top-15. People will be shocked and surprised if Penix Jr lasts — I wouldn’t be. That’s not to diminish his qualities which are obvious. I’ve tried to explain this over a number of months. There are extreme positives with his arm but there’s another side to the story and when combined with age/injuries/scheme — he might last longer than many think.

I’ll finish with Spencer Rattler. I’m a lot higher on him than most others writing about the draft. He more than any of the names above has a grasp of pro-style football. Dowell Loggains (NFL background) was South Carolina’s offensive coordinator last year and used pro-terminology and concepts. This wasn’t a Washington/Oregon style offense. The transition to the next level should be smoother for Rattler compared to those working in pre-determined, spread offenses.

I think his stock has suffered through no fault of his own. I was incredibly impressed with the way he played in 2023. Everything around him was awful apart from Xavier Legette. He had no other receivers to speak of, the running game was a mess and the offensive line was one of the worst in college football. He was battered most weeks with the line giving up 186 total pressures (fourth most) and as a consequence he was sacked 3.7 times a game (eighth most). Despite this, he regularly delivered pro-level passes with defenders breathing down his neck. He only had 11 turnover-worthy plays, the same number as Drake Maye, the 79th most in college football. It speaks to how he has transformed his game, has not forced things under pressure and has remained composed in the pocket.

Further to this, his adjusted completion percentage (the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target) is 79.6% — eighth most in the NCAA. That’s only one place behind Heisman front-runner Jayden Daniels (79.9%), despite all of the pressure he faced.

Rattler led all quarterbacks in completion percentage off play-action (79.4%) — ahead of Jayden Daniels in second (77.8%), Bo Nix (77.8%), Cam Ward (77.2%), J.J. McCarthy (75.3%) and Quinn Ewers (75%). Although it’s worth noting, Ewers threw considerably more play-action passes in 2023 (he was the only player among the top performers with +200 attempts).

This is all such a difference compared to the old Rattler at Oklahoma, who refused to play in structure and was reckless, trusting his arm too often and giving off a sense that he was freelancing. Every week it felt like he was throwing into obvious double or even triple coverage for a lousy turnover (or two). Now, he does what the offense needs him to do. He only threw eight interceptions — many of them hopeful attempts trying to drag his team out of a lost cause. That’s three fewer picks than Penix Jr and one fewer than Maye.

He can also scramble to extend plays and make gains on the ground. Rattler oozes natural talent. He has a gun-slinger mentality and I stand by the comparison that he’s a poor-man’s Mahomes. It’s easy to forget now but three-years ago, many people were projecting him as a top-five pick.

The big challenge for Rattler is going to be meeting with teams. I can see through his interviews that he’s a very different person to the brash, cocky, carefree player we came to know at Oklahoma. Yet there are things that happened there — not serious things, just things that teams will roll their eyes about and wonder whether he’s the guy they want as the face of the franchise. He’ll need to answer questions about those concerns, take ownership of his mistakes and he’ll need his coaches at South Carolina to vouch for him. If he can do this, he has the talent to go a lot higher than people realise. If he can sell teams on being a changed man and excel at the Senior Bowl and combine — don’t be shocked if in a few weeks he turns into a hot name, touted as a ‘riser’ (when in reality, the talent was always there).

If he doesn’t go early and lasts into the middle rounds like many are suggesting, he could end up being a steal. I appreciate I’m rating him a lot higher than most but the talent and potential is obvious, he’s worked in a NFL environment (SEC, NFL play-caller, constant pressure) and shown he can deliver. It’s very easy to imagine him joining a NFL team, without the hopelessness of the 2023 South Carolina Gamecocks, and taking off.

What is a realistic plan for the Seahawks?

So much is going to change — we don’t even know who the Head Coach is yet. Or what’s happening with Geno Smith’s contract. Or who’ll still be on the roster. It’s virtually impossible to project anything at this stage.

However, I’m still going to give it a go.

I think John Schneider is itching to take a quarterback. I’m just trying to work out what I think that means. In Green Bay, they would take them frequently. Schneider hasn’t done that but was it a decision influenced by Pete Carroll? Could we now start to see Schneider taking shots at the position, until he gets ‘the guy’?

For that reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a chance on someone at #16. Rightly or wrongly. Can I see Schneider believing the physical qualities of Nix or Penix Jr are worth rolling the dice on in the middle of round one? Maybe. Perhaps he’d even stun the experts and take Rattler?

After all, he reportedly was willing to draft Andy Dalton in round one in 2011. Here’s an article from Danny O’Neil, reflecting on what happened:

The Seahawks very much considered choosing Dalton with the 25th pick of the 2011 draft. In fact, there were rumors his name was written on a draft card that never turned in…

Now, before we continue it’s important to offer a few qualifiers. The information that forms the basis from this story comes from multiple sources who were actually present in Seattle’s draft room during the two years in question. It does not, however, come from Schneider, and that’s important to disclose because not only does he figure so prominently in the storyline, but he is adamant about avoiding giving any one person credit for a team’s selection. That’s the way he has been since the day he was introduced as Seattle’s general manager in 2010.

Dalton was a serious consideration in the first round for Seattle. In fact, Schneider advocated for that selection. The issue was one of consensus. Specifically, Schneider didn’t want to force his conviction on a player on the rest of the scouting department and the entire franchise.

This wasn’t about who has the final say, either. Schneider runs Seattle’s draft. The question was how he would run it, and he has never wanted a front office in which his voice is the only one that makes the decisions.

This is a really important piece of information. Schneider is now in charge of decision making at all levels. It’s not unrealistic to think that left to his own devices, Schneider would’ve taken Dalton. Now, is he going to be emboldened to make that call?

Dalton played in an extreme spread, four-verticals heavy offense at TCU. It was user-friendly. He played very well in college but not in a jaw-dropping way. Schneider liked him. Could he feel similarly about, say, Bo Nix at #16? I wouldn’t rule it out even if I think he’s a day-two pick.

Schneider’s answer when asked about Geno Smith last week was extremely lukewarm and offered no hint of commitment. Could he just outright move on, with the intention of proceeding with Drew Lock as a safety-net and someone taken at #16 as the way forward? I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility.

Equally, I can see him thinking a third rounder — if he lasts that long — on Spencer Rattler would be something akin to a shot to nothing. A free hit on a talented player. If it doesn’t work out, perhaps he targets Quinn Ewers in 2025 — a player I’ve long thought would be right up Schneider’s street.

So even though the quarterback class has been severely weakened by players staying in college, I wonder if Schneider fully intends to try a new approach to the position — taking chances until he finds the long-term starter.

If he appoints an offensive-minded Head Coach, especially one with experience in developing young quarterbacks, it could be a tell.

Here’s something else to consider — with the depth of the draft weakened with so many players returning to college, will he be more inclined to use his 2024 picks to trade up? He has two third rounders to play with.

If it’s not a quarterback in round one, the first question is whether Jared Verse or Chop Robinson last? They are the only two viable blue-chippers I see being mocked into range. If they are there, you have to strongly consider taking one of them. They’re too good.

What’s the future for Abe Lucas? If his knee is a long-term concern, the 16th pick would be prime position to take a tackle.

If neither of these situations are plausible and if you aren’t going to go for one of the second tier quarterbacks, maybe the best plan would be to trade down and try to acquire more stock for day two, which will be rich for interior offensive linemen.

Four other players I want to highlight

Zak Zinter (G, Michigan) — coming off an injury but said to be making great progress, Zinter isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but he’s a tough, physical blocker who has every chance to be a long-time starter at the next level. For me, he’s the best pure guard in the draft.

McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M) — from very early in the college season I was promoting Jackson as DT1 in this class. He is physical and brutal up front with enough quickness to provide some pass rush and disrupt. Plus, he is going to set a tone on the defense and will develop very quickly into a team captain. A true heart and soul culture building type who also makes plays.

Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina) — there just aren’t that many people with his combination of size, speed and playmaking ability. He will put on a show at the combine and he has the potential to be a X-factor playmaker.

Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona) — I was so impressed with his ability to get open. I’m not sure he’s going to be an amazing tester but he’s the kind of player who can easily settle into a very productive WR2 or WR3 role.

Bralen Trice (DE, Washington) — he needs to get stronger for his size and add a bullying element to his play, yet his athleticism is off the charts for his frame and he had an excellent 2023 season. I’ve seen the testing numbers at UW and he can run a 4.2 short shuttle in the 265/275lbs range. That will pique the interest of many teams.

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The new horizontal board is publishing today — firstly though, some video thoughts on the latest from the Seahawks’ Head Coaching search…

With the Lions winning in the divisional round at the weekend, I’ve started to see people highlighting the work of Dan Campbell. Undoubtedly, he’s done a great job. Many people on social media are now calling for the Seahawks to appoint someone who can provide his level of leadership and expertise.

I think there’s a significant chunk of context to add here.

When Campbell was initially appointed in 2021, he hired Anthony Lynn as his offensive coordinator. He took over an offense that had Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Swift, Josh Reynolds and T.J. Hockenson. Four fifths of their current starting offensive line, including first rounders Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell were on the team too.

The Lions started that season 0-8-1 before Lynn was removed from playcalling duties, with the offense struggling badly. The Lions finished the season 3-5.

Under Lynn, they averaged 16.6 points per game. When he was removed, they averaged 21.8. Despite the uptick in production, they finished the season with the 29th ranked offense per DVOA.

Johnson was promoted to the coordinator role for the 2022 season. The Lions improved to 9-8 that year, they scored 26.6 points per game and the offense ranked 7th per DVOA. They were dependant on the offense, because the defense ranked 27th.

This season, the Lions are in the NFC Championship game with an overall record of 14-5. They’re scoring 27.1 points per game and the offense ranks fifth per DVOA (the defense ranked 13th).

The point is, Campbell with Lynn as offensive coordinator was a winless Head Coach with a struggling offense. Since promoting Johnson, the Lions have been an offensive-reliant team that has improved its output and performance consistently. They’ve gone from being so bad they earn the #2 pick in the draft to being within a game of the Super Bowl.

What’s the bigger factor here? Campbell’s leadership or Johnson’s appointment as offensive coordinator?

I’m not trying to undermine Campbell who is clearly a person players want to play for. Meshing with Johnson’s tactical quality, they make a great pair. However, in the hierarchy of importance, without Johnson calling plays, Campbell’s Lions were winless. Look at the difference — 0-8-1 with Lynn, 26-18 after. 29th ranked offense before, top-seven ever since.

Another quick point to make regarding the importance of experience, leadership and staff-building, which I fear is going to take great prominence in the discussion this week. I want to highlight this article again from 2017. It’s Gregg Rosenthal’s coaching hire rankings from that year. He had Anthony Lynn ranked first, when he was appointed the Chargers’ coach. Sean McVay was second, Kyle Shanahan was fourth.

Here’s what Rosenthal said of Lynn:

This ranking is not just about Lynn, but the staff that he quickly built. Lynn chose to keep offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, reportedly at the prodding of Chargers management. Lynn also convinced former Seahawks defensive coordinator and Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley to run his defense.

Lynn’s inexperience running a team — he’s never been a head coach at any level, though he did serve as the interim head coach in Buffalo after Rex Ryan’s firing heading into Week 17 — will be mitigated by the presence of two former head coaches (Whisenhunt and Bradley) on his staff. Those hires show a self-confidence and lack of ego that will serve him well.

Lynn won the job in large part because he was a “natural-born leader,” according to Chargers president John Spanos. It’s easy to see why players swear by him after listening to Lynn address the media. He carries himself like someone who will be doing this a long time.

He’s a leader, he’s built a great staff, he speaks with authority, he has no ego. All admirable qualities I can imagine people in Seattle saying to justify the appointment of someone like Dan Quinn.

Lynn lasted four years with the Chargers and was fired after going 33-30.

Here’s what was said about McVay:

McVay, 30, is a far bigger question mark. He’s the rare offensive ingenue who is prized for his acumen and known for communicating well with his players. But how much credit do coach Jay Gruden and Washington’s deep receiver group get for the well-constructed Redskins offense?

Clearly, with hindsight, we can see that a lot of what Washington did was down to McVay and very little to do with Gruden. It shouldn’t have been viewed as risky, more inspired.

Vance Joseph’s hire in Denver came in third, with Rosenthal noting: “Elway cited Joseph’s “great vision” and his leadership skills.” Those leadership skills again produced an 11-21 record and a firing after two-years. Here’s Shanahan’s blurb, in lowly fourth place:

There are red flags, however. Shanahan’s previous stop in Cleveland ended bumpily, with Shanahan asking to leave after one season under contentious circumstances.

The delay in Shanahan’s hiring will hurt him greatly in terms of putting together a staff. Chip Kelly was sunk in San Francisco partly because he was stuck with a lousy defensive roster and couldn’t find a high-quality coordinator to save it. Shanahan is the captain in gym class stuck with the last pick. Getting quality coaches to San Francisco, where he will be the fourth head coach in as many years, won’t be easy. Nothing about Shanahan’s job will be.

So there was the risk of the unknown for McVay, the risk of an abrupt departure in Cleveland of all places for Shanahan, paired with an inability to put together a highly regarded staff. They were both ranked below Lynn with Shanahan also below Joseph. They’ve since gone on to dominate the NFC West since 2017, have both appeared in multiple Super Bowls and NFC Championship games and McVay has a ring.

It feels like there’s a lesson to be learnt here. Maybe, just maybe, leadership and being the guy who can stand up in a room and deliver a great speech isn’t as important in the modern NFL as having some of those qualities but, more importantly, also having the tactical acumen offensively to outmanoeuvre opponents?

Campbell’s experience in Detroit only took off when he got the right offensive coordinator. What happens when he loses Ben Johnson? Does he end up being Dan Quinn in Atlanta minus Kyle Shanahan? This is the issue John Schneider talked about last week. You can eliminate this problem by hiring a great offensive play-caller to run your team and finding the tough-guy leadership elsewhere, such as your coordinators or assistants.

Check out my guest appearance on the HawksZone Rundown this week:

Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Seahawks have arranged second interviews with Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn. These will all be in person next week.

On the surface it’s an underwhelming group but there are a few things that need to be pointed out.

Firstly, Pelissero adds, “There likely will be others too. A thorough process.” Thus, this doesn’t appear to be the final short-list. Relax, breathe. Of the initial batch, only Frank Smith is absent of the names they originally spoke to.

They reportedly only initially interviewed Bobby Slowik today, so it’s plausible they simply haven’t had an opportunity yet to digest that conversation and arrange a second interview. Ben Johnson, who they spoke to yesterday, is still coaching in the playoffs. He wouldn’t even be available to fly to Seattle this week with the Lions preparing for the NFC Championship game. They’d have to wait until the week after next to meet with him in person, regardless of the result between San Francisco and Detroit.

The Seahawks don’t need to announce any planned interview with Mike Vrabel. As a free agent, he can come to Seattle at any point. They’re reportedly interested in a meeting, even though no date has been revealed.

It’s possible to potentially rule out one candidate. It’s never been reported that Mike Macdonald was sent an interview request. This is telling. Sunday was the deadline to interview candidates virtually, enabling teams to setup second interviews during Super Bowl bye week if the coach was still involved in the playoffs.

This means should the Ravens win next weekend, the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to talk to MacDonald until after the Super Bowl. Surely if he was in contention, they would’ve setup an initial virtual interview before today’s deadline, allowing them to meet with him in two weeks time?

Here’s my take on Macdonald. It’s gone very quiet with him and potential NFL vacancies. Has it become known to teams that he’s being lined up to replace Jim Harbaugh at Michigan? He was the defensive coordinator there in 2021. The Wolverines are going to need a coach if/when Harbaugh bolts for the NFL.

His name hasn’t been connected to any NFL teams for a while now. Do they know something? Or, perhaps he has removed his name from contention for another reason? Either he doesn’t feel ready, or maybe the Ravens are setting up a plan for him to replace John Harbaugh one day? After all, there was a succession plan for GM Eric DeCosta to replace Ozzie Newsome.

Either way, it doesn’t look like Macdonald is bound for Seattle, even for an interview let alone to replace Pete Carroll. Instead it seems like the next Head Coach will come from the list of Evero, Graham, Kafka, Morris, Quinn, Johnson, Slowik or Vrabel.

Personally, my vote would be to still go all-out to lure Johnson to Seattle — even with all the talk connecting him to the Washington Commanders. Always compete, right? They have to try and pull out all the stops. The only problem is, how long can you wait? Teams are starting to make hires now and they get the advantage in terms of being able to go and recruit staff. The longer you wait, the more likely you are to miss out on staff hires. A case in point, by making the Super Bowl last season, the Eagles lost both coordinators late in the process. Many of their favoured replacements, such as Vic Fangio, had gone elsewhere. They had to settle, with disastrous consequences. If they think Johnson is set for the Commanders, you can’t wait around just to miss out. None of the other candidates are still involved in the playoffs and can be hired at any point.

Johnson has a track record of driving major production out of Detroit’s skill players. The Seahawks, rightly or wrongly, have invested in receivers and running backs, plus a pass-blocking left tackle. The success Johnson is having in Detroit is transferable based on personnel. Plus, the Lions’ two starting guards are both free agents and could be signed to bolster the O-line.

Yesterday’s performance by Houston in Baltimore doesn’t change my thinking about Slowik as an alternative. Did people really expect anything else? Baltimore — a heavy home favourite, the best team in the NFL, with the MVP at quarterback, comfortably handling an upstart, young, overachieving team with a rookie QB and first-time Head Coach? This isn’t exactly Dan Quinn and the Cowboys laying an egg against the Packers.

Despite the great pitch from Les Snead for Raheem Morris (perhaps partly inspired by the fact the Rams will get draft compensation if he departs) I’m not sold on what he’d bring to Seattle. He’s clearly charismatic and well liked but he led the 22nd ranked defense this year (per DVOA) despite having Aaron Donald. Rams fans are hardly singing his praises as a coordinator.

Kafka, Evero and Graham would be head-scratchers for Schneider’s career-defining move. Quinn still feels dangerously plausible given how often it’s been touted that he was lined up to one day replace Carroll. To me that would be such an underwhelming hire. It’d remind me of this article posted on NFL.com in 2017 ranking the coaching hires. Anthony Lynn was ranked first, ahead of Sean McVay (#2) and Kyle Shanahan (#4) because of his prior experience, staff building and leadership. Meanwhile, McVay and Shanahan were labelled risky. This is all sounds very familiar.

I can’t shake Quinn’s spell in Atlanta, where he was 24-29 without Shanahan, was fired after an 0-5 start to the 2020 season and was regularly criticised for blowing big leads and not holding players accountable for consistently poor play. His success as a coach feels tied to three things — the LOB, Shanahan and Micah Parsons. I don’t see him usurping Shanahan or McVay and, as we’ve seen in the last week, Shanahan seems to thrive on seeing his old boss beaten.

Vrabel wouldn’t feel as underwhelming as Quinn. His time in Tennessee arguably ended due to mitigating circumstances. When your GM trades away A.J. Brown, gets fired for it, then the interim GM looks after the next draft, but doesn’t get the job full-time, then another guy takes over, plus Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry just get old — none of this is conducive with success. I think Vrabel could be interesting — and it’d be different, which is a good thing — but so much would depend on who’s calling plays offensively. He seems to have a good reputation among those in the league.

I wonder if there’s an ulterior motive to some of the announced list of second interviews. We’ve talked about this before. Evero, Graham, Kafka. Is it possible that, while taking those candidacies seriously, the Seahawks are conscious that all three could be available as potential coordinators and/or assistant Head Coaches? You bring them in, create a connection, sell the franchise. The Panthers and Raiders may allow their defensive coordinators to depart as they transition to new regimes, while the Giants have become so toxic, it might be difficult for them to reject a request from Kafka to move on.

If nothing else, it’s an interesting thought. Pairing either of Evero or Graham with a younger offensive mind at Head Coach would be a coup, if it’s at all possible. Asking Kafka to bring an Andy Reid-style offense to Seattle to go with a Vrabel type would also have some appeal. I get the sense Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback, either this year or next, and having someone on staff with experience of developing a QB will be vital.

Nevertheless, many Seahawks fans will be hoping the team expands the reported list quickly. It’s not exactly a group that screams ‘brave new exciting era’.

This is a guest post written by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks have set themselves up for another very intriguing offseason.  They’ve already made the biggest decision a team can make – saying goodbye to the one person responsible for the roster, coaching staff and the gameday implementation of both.

There are several other critical decisions to be made.  As most of us are aware, the Seahawks currently do not have any salary cap room to spend in 2024 at this moment in time.  While they have plenty of ‘movable’ money in the form of non-guaranteed salary and roster bonuses that can be eliminated or otherwise adjusted, some difficult decisions will need to be made — and soon.

We will be tracking and providing analysis of the overall roster and salary cap to keep everyone aware of the options available to the team, as well as the costs and benefits.

Perhaps the biggest piece of that roster (and likely the first roster choice they will have to consider – more on that below) is deciding on Geno Smith.

When a Head Coach is no longer with the team and the starting quarterback is not an entrenched franchise-level player locked into an immovable long-term contract, there will always be questions about his future with the team.  Fair or not, NFL teams’ success begins with that position.

In the case of the Seahawks though, we have an extra layer of intrigue.  Pete Carroll, in his season-ending press conference gave an extremely strong endorsement of Smith, pointing to him as a ‘team strength.’  Days after his dismissal, John Schneider gave a much more sober and balanced answer when asked to assess Smith’s play in 2023.  It is fair to say that the ground the 33-year-old quarterback was standing on got softer with Carroll no longer at the head of the table.

The contract the Seahawks signed Smith to last year gives the team options and flexibility.  It was structured to be revisited after the 2023 season, no matter what the results were on the field.

Let’s review it for ourselves and look at what options the Seahawks have.  We need to start by looking at how Smith did in 2023.

A Brief Look at His Season

John Schneider’s response to the question perfectly encapsulated Smith’s performance this year.  It was ‘good.’  There were things to like and things that were not up to snuff.  Consistently good performances were elusive, just as they were in 2022.  But on a high view level, the overall numbers declined badly.

That is where we need to start.  Numbers are cold and they remove feelings from the equation.  Particularly when we are talking about what an amazing feel-good story that we have all witnessed since trading Russell Wilson away.  This year, Pete Carroll constantly deflected criticism away from his quarterback and presented an extremely positive view of him when asked in press conferences about his occasionally spotty performances.  Such an influential figure speaking that way often shapes a good portion of the narrative for fans.

Context is also critical.

In Smith’s contract, he wagered heavily on himself in 2023, agreeing to escalators for the four major quarterback statistics (plus one team achievement – a playoff appearance) were he to exceed the prior season’s numbers, with as much as $15 million extra dollars available to him.  How did he do?

He was not able to earn any of the escalators.  In fact, he fell well short of the four passing targets.

How short?  So much so, we need to have a look at his performance to assess his future with the team.  His overall performance this year was far less effective than 2022.

Smith played all 17 games in 2022 but only 15 this year, missing the second San Francisco game and the Philadelphia game with injury.  To get a true apples-to-apples comparison, I took his average production over the 15 games and credited him with 2 more games to get a fair representation.  The results are very interesting:

That is a lot of red.  His numbers dropped in every standard quarterback statistic, except for a significant decrease in sacks and hits and a slight improvement in interceptions.

Of particular concern are the touchdowns, completion percentage and the rushing first downs.  We will take them one at a time and give them some context.

Touchdowns

Going from 30 touchdowns to a projected 23 is a major drop.  Smith went from an excellent #6 in the NFL last season all the way down to #20.  The only notable quarterback below him was Trevor Lawrence, with a projected 22 touchdown passes.

Where did the drop in touchdowns come from?  The answer is both revealing and troubling.

Last year, thirteen of Smith’s touchdown passes were of the explosive variety, travelling further than twenty yards.  This year?  Only four went that far.  For added context, one of those four only had a few inches of air on it, as Smith dumped the ball off to Kenneth Walker just past the line of scrimmage in Week Ten against Washington and he took it for a 64-yard touchdown.

To take it a step further, how many touchdown throws were not explosives but still in the healthy 15–19-yard range?  Last year:  five.  This year:  two.

Only six touchdown passes of 15 yards or more.  Last year?  Smith had eighteen.

Those numbers scan when you compare the overall passing statistics from the two seasons.

In 2022, Smith’s passing yards were split between 59% yards before the catch (aka air yards) and 41% yards after the catch.

In 2023?  The numbers went down to 53% / 47%.

That is nearly a 10% swing in rate, which is backed up by Smith’s average depth of target.  It went down from 7.6 yards downfield last year to 7.0 yards this year.  That is an 8% drop and that took him from the middle of the pack to one of the shortest-distance throwers in the NFL, ranking #23 in terms of average pass depth among full time starters.

In and of itself, that strategy is perfectly fine.  Shortening up the field in the ever-quickening NFL is a choice you can stand behind easily.

However, the biggest selling point of shorter passes reveals an even more troubling downturn for Smith in 2023.

Completion Percentage

When you shorten up your passing game, the expectation is that accuracy will improve and the sticks can move more freely.  A nice side benefit of this style comes in the red zone.  An established routine of short, quick passes should yield a higher rate of touchdowns in tighter confines.

Did the Seahawks receive either of those benefits from shortening up their passing game in 2023?  No, they did not.

Smith’s accuracy suffered a shocking drop from the previous year.  In 2022 he was the most accurate passer in the NFL.  It was a stunning achievement for a ‘new’ starter who was not being bottle-fed the offense but regularly making highlight reel plays with his deep throws.

This year we witnessed a regression to the middle of the pack, as he was #15 in the NFL.  We need context in order to grasp this change.

I charted the last five years of NFL quarterback play, noting the year-to-year accuracy change for all quarterbacks that played a combination of at least 30 games in that two-year stretch.

Only two quarterbacks in that sample had a bigger accuracy drop from one year to the next than Smith did in 2023:  Josh Allen from 2020 to 2021 (69.2% to 63.3%) and Derek Carr from 2021 to 2022 (68.4% to 60.8%).

Josh Allen is everyone’s favorite statistical anomaly.  The 69.2% is more of an outlier as his career completion rate over six seasons is 63.2%.  It should also be noted that in 2021 he threw 36 touchdowns, ran for another six, led the team in rushing first downs and took them to the AFC Championship game that year.  All that took most of the sting out of that accuracy drop.

Derek Carr’s drop is more simply explained.  Advocates Jon Gruden and Rich Bisaccia were not brought back in 2022.  Josh McDaniels was hired and there was a big offensive and tonal change and he and Carr never got on the same page.  A parting of ways was best for all involved and Carr was benched to avoid paying his guaranteed money should he be injured and then in the offseason moved on to New Orleans.

Keep in mind, Carr immediately rebounded with the Saints this year, posting a 68.4% completion rate, #3 in the NFL for quarterbacks who started all 17 games.  Also, he has a healthy history of accuracy, with four seasons of throwing for 68% or better.

Does Smith have a running tool or a high-leverage touchdown tool like Allen does to mitigate a drop in completion percentage?  Does he have multiple years of sustained accuracy to earn the benefit of the doubt like Carr has?  Particularly when you add in that he will be entering his age-34 year this fall?

No, he does not.

We need to dive a little deeper into what caused this drop in accuracy.

Decision Making Has Been a Challenge

As I said above, a shorter passing game typically yields a better overall completion rate and better red zone efficiency.

We know that the overall completion rate dropped significantly.  But were there any red zone gains?  No.  The Seahawks only improved from #27 in the NFL last year to #26.  Smith had nine touchdown throws inside of 10 yards last year.  This year?  He projected out to have eleven.  A slight improvement but not what you would expect.  That does make sense when you watch his play in the red zone.  He seems indecisive at times and then rushes throws when the protection breaks down.

Another area to consider is assessing his options after the ball has been hiked.

One point I have consistently mentioned over the course of this season is that Smith has scaled way back on running and scrambling.  His runs dropped from 68 last year to 37 this year, nearly cutting them in half.  He only picked up ten first downs, compared to twenty-four last year.

How important is that?  It tipped the run/pass balance in a very interesting direction.  The Seahawks were the fifth heaviest passing team in the NFL (and therefore the fifth lightest running team) in terms of play selection this year.  It represented a nearly 4% swing towards passing from 2022, on a Pete Carroll-led team no less.

And yet, as you see above, the pass production did not increase proportionally.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

Interestingly, Smith has had nearly the same amount of time in the pocket this year as last year, with 2.4 seconds recorded by Pro Football Reference for both seasons.

With Smith choosing to scramble far less often or take a designed run this year, it is not hard to see why Hurries had such a spike.  PFR defines a hurry as “a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure.”

If you do not get rid of the ball quickly and you are not inclined to run, you are going to get Hurried.

And yet, the passing production stats gained by the choice do not justify the sacrifice of not running the ball and picking up those easy yards when they are available.

We have seen and commented on Smith’s lack of crisp decision-making this year many times.  It has shown up in chunks of games – quarters or even halves – resulting in no real movement from the offense.  Games like Week One against the Rams, Week Three against the Panthers, Week Eight against the Browns and Week Twelve against the Forty-Niners showed Smith at times to be hesitant, struggling to progress through his reads and then often throwing into well-covered windows.

While it is positive that he improved in PFF’s Turnover-Worthy Plays, from worst in the NFL last year to “only” the sixth worst.  But it is still a troubling number.

Also, we have witnessed poor decision-making and execution from Smith at key times this season:  Week Two against the Lions (taking a 17-yard sack very late), Week Six against the Bengals (taking too long and being sacked/hit on fourth down in the red zone – twice), Week Eleven against the Rams (the end of game run call that wasted time), and Week Thirteen against the Cowboys (the fourth down throw at Deejay Dallas’ feet that sealed the loss), among others.

While Smith had several late-game drives that tied or won the game for the Seahawks, there are games lost that his mistakes greatly contributed to as well. If the offense cannot consistently build a lead and must rely on desperation drives to get wins, the ‘why not’ of it bears examination as well.

Some Conclusions

Let’s be clear, not every single problem or challenge I commented on above is Smith’s fault through and through.  On the contrary, one of the reasons for the organization parting ways with Pete Carroll is they had become stale and had been unable to correct the situation.

The defense was awful this year.  No doubt some of those game-winners engineered by Smith were necessary because the defense could not get off the field to protect a lead.

The Offensive Line had to be patched together due to severe injury at times.  The numbers show they were not much worse than 2022 in pass protection but the run-blocking was wanting.  The team’s rushers dropped from a robust 4.8 yards per carry last year (good for #5 in the NFL) to a middling 4.1 yards per carry (#17).

Not every play call and resulting bad play was directly on Smith.  The whole team’s lack of preparation is not on him either.

Jason Myers missed a makable field goal try to win that Rams game.

This may feel like a hit piece on Smith, an attempt to run him out of town on a rail to match the fresh start the Seahawks will see in the Personnel and Head Coaching stations.  It is not.

It is simply the cost of leading the team and getting a huge contract.  You must make it work and this year, accomplishing that has been a real struggle for Smith.

I do think a fresh start at General Manager and Head Coach will beget a fresh look at the player at the team’s most important position.

Smith’s late game-winning drives have been well-documented.  I think we are very familiar with the positives that he brings to the table.  This is an attempt to fill out the discussion a bit.  Given what we have discussed, a $31.2 million cap hit does seem like an awful lot to swallow and hope for a rebound season.

Based on what we have discussed and the fact that the organization has undergone big changes, if the Seahawks do decide to make a drastic change this offseason, it should not surprise anyone.

With that said, what options do the Seahawks have with his contract?  There are several.

The Seahawks Have a Multiplicity of Choices

See the chart below for the most logical options the Seahawks have to either make a change to the roster or pick up some salary cap flexibility:

The top line of the chart shows the cap effect of Smith’s contract with no changes.  If the team does nothing, that is how their cap plays out.  That is our baseline.

Note: The numbers underneath the top option are taken from Over The Cap but they do not precisely reflect the site’s cap savings and dead cap numbers.  Why not?  The salary is correctly shown currently as non-guaranteed at this time.

Per Brady Henderson of ESPN, he has confirmed that Smith’s $12.7 million salary for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed five days after the waiver period (The Super Bowl on February 11), so if the Seahawks want to avoid locking that large salary in for 2024, they will need to move quickly and get something done before February 16.

That is our next baseline, a clean shaking of the hands and parting ways and the first option shown.  They will have to eat $17.4 million in dead cap money but they gain a precious $13.8 million in cap room and could resign someone like Drew Lock and spend the rest on other parts of the roster.  The $9.6 million roster bonus comes off the books and vanishes.

An unconventional but possible option would be to take this step, let Smith explore his market and then approach him about coming back.  It is very tricky to pull off but possible given the goodwill the Seahawks have earned with him over the years.

The next three choices involve converting money to a signing bonus and spreading that money into future seasons.  They are very simple operations and in my opinion are the most likely.  It will just be up to the Seahawks to decide how aggressive on the cap they want to be this year.  This is a familiar option for the team, as they utilized it last year with Tyler Lockett, Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.

— They can convert the $9.6 million Roster Bonus due March 18 to a Signing Bonus and split it in half and gain $4.8 million and push the same amount to 2025 (must be done by March 18)

— They can convert a maximum of $11.05 million of Smith’s $12.7 million 2024 salary into a signing bonus and gain $5.525 million and push the same amount to 2025 (note – this is flexible.  They can convert less if they like.  I just took it all the way down to the minimum 2024 salary for a 7+ year NFL veteran of $1.65 million, which is the most you are allowed)

— They can double-dip and convert both.  They would gain $10.325 million and push the same amount to 2025.

Then we come to the least desirable but potential option:  trading Smith once the League Year starts on March 13 but before the Roster Bonus comes due March 18.  The Seahawks are free to negotiate anytime to trade Smith but it cannot be processed until the new league year starts.  That is what makes it difficult.  A team will be acquiring Smith with a $12.7 million guaranteed salary and then agreeing to pay or convert the $9.6 million signing bonus.  If Smith does not have more than one team seriously interested, the sole team could squeeze the Seahawks right up to that deadline and acquire him for a song.

There is one more choice not listed on the chart we should discuss.

The Path to Renegotiation

From now and proceeding until the all-important February 16 Salary Guarantee Day, the Seahawks have no new guaranteed money on Smith’s contract.  They are only responsible for the $17.4 million of signing bonus money that is left over from the contract he signed last year that needs to be accounted for on the salary cap, and currently it is split in two chunks of $8.7 million, one for 2024 and one for 2025.

There is an opportunity to approach Smith and his agent and negotiate to tear the contract up and rework it and make it beneficial for both sides.  They would only need to account for that $17.4 million from the current contract.  Other than that, they are free to come up with all kinds of options to make it work for both parties.

It would take a negotiator’s touch to get this done, though.  If they approach Smith’s team right now with the idea that they either need to make the salary cap work better, or their analysis indicates that they just cannot afford to play him on a $31.2 million cap hit in 2024, they must have a Plan B in place, ready to go should they desire to walk away before that February 16 deadline.

In that vein, should be noted that teams can negotiate with and sign their own unrestricted free agents like Lock at any time.  They do not have to wait for the new league year to start in March.

This would require some quick work.  Hiring a new Head Coach, getting his input on Smith as well as evaluating the other options via free agency and the draft would call for some late nights and energy drinks.  It can be done though.  How?

First off, as I mentioned, this contract was agreed to with the idea that it would be reworked at some point along the line.  It would be negligent for either side to claim they are being blindsided and express surprise that the other party would like to go back to the table.

Just as a theoretical exercise, let’s flip the scenario to Smith’s advantage.  Imagine Smith had hit every single escalator target this year and claimed his $15 million prize.  The Seahawks would have a massive $46 million cap number for him in 2024.  The chance they would ride with that huge number – especially given their other cap space constraints – is very slim.  They would contact him in good faith and try to both reward his fantastic play and give them some cap relief.  The same would also be true if Smith failed to deliver a good season.  Which is far closer to what happened in 2023.  And that is fine for $10 million in cap dollars.  But is it fine for over triple that amount?  That is the crux of the matter.

Secondly, hiring a new Head Coach does not reset the entire organization and roster to where John Schneider would all the sudden need to start fresh with a lot of homework to do in evaluating Smith’s 2023 season.  He has already done that, has a firm grasp on where the team and the organization stand.  In Head Coaching interviews, both sides would want the Seahawks’ quarterback situation to be very high on the list of interview topics.  If the team makes a Head Coaching hire without being in lock-step on the quarterback currently on the roster… let’s just say that will not happen.

What will happen to Smith and his contract and cap number?  I do not know.  The Seahawks themselves probably do not know for sure.  It is too early in the process to really know.  One thing that feels certain though — some kind of change will come to the quarterback room, the salary cap, or both, for the Seahawks in 2024.

Note from Rob — big thank you to Curtis for this thorough, engaging analysis of Geno’s contract. I’ve also done a video today discussing my top-three candidates to replace Pete Carroll. You can watch it below and be sure to subscribe to my YouTube channel so you never miss a video:

 

It felt like there were a lot of ‘easter eggs’ in John Schneider’s press conference this week. After all, this isn’t a draft. Deception isn’t necessary. You’re not going to blurt out you’re preferred candidate but neither do you have to go overboard trying to conceal your intentions.

The extent to which Schneider talked about the issue of losing a successful offensive coordinator felt like an obvious tell that, if nothing else, they were conscious of this very real problem in the modern NFL. You only have to see from the total lack of buzz surrounding Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, Steve Spagnuolo and others. The league wants offense. If you hire an offensive coach and nail the defensive coordinator position, you are far more likely to keep your staff together.

I suspect this will be emphasised even further if/when Raheem Morris, Ejiro Eviro, Patrick Graham and maybe even Dan Quinn don’t get Head Coaching offers, while the offensive-minded guys are preferred. We’ll see what happens.

The other thing I think might be more telling than anyone first thought was the point Schneider made about being in charge of hiring the coaches. Initially I thought he might be making an ‘it wasn’t me, ‘guv, honest‘ type gesture — trying to distance himself from the inglorious appointments of Ken Norton Jr, Clint Hurtt and others. I now want to bring another angle to the table. What if it’s a hint that he’s the one doing due diligence behind the scenes to create a staff?

This wouldn’t be necessary if he was going to hire Dan Quinn or Mike Vrabel. They’ll have ready-made staffs. Quinn in particular will have been working on a plan for a long time. If he was going to take a chance on a relative newcomer though, without a rich contacts list, Schneider would presumably need to assist.

Bobby Slowik was not a household name 12 months ago. His work with Houston has elevated him into the spotlight. It’s been such a meteoric rise, most people don’t know that a few years ago he was working for PFF as an analyst — appearing on podcasts discussing the NFL with Zac Robinson (now working with the Rams).

His work with the Texans has been so impressive — helping turn C.J. Stroud into a rookie revelation and making a cast of receivers and tight ends highly effective in one of the surprise stories of the season. Despite all of the legit concerns about a lack of experience, it’s impossible not to look at the way he was scheming targets open (brilliantly highlighted by Josh Norris here, here, here and here) and wonder — maybe this guy is legit? Maybe we’re seeing the start of something special? Perhaps all of the concerns about his inexperience deserve to go in the same place as the concerns people had about Sean McVay when he took over the Rams?

We’re living in a new world. The NFL has changed, as Schneider acknowledged on Tuesday. The game will always be about winning in the trenches and every team, at least for me, should set out to build greatness up front, find a quarterback and then — as the third most important aspect — find ways to challenge your opponent schematically. The modern way to do this is to use deception and misdirection to create wide-open targets and exploit weaknesses (we’ve seen Shanahan and McVay attack Seattle this way for a long time).

Slowik is showing he understands this and is very good at it. Couple that with his background of being around Kyle Shanahan and McVay, plus the fact he speaks incredibly well for such an inexperienced coach, and maybe he is the real deal?

Doesn’t this seem like an old head on young shoulders?

Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik on head coach DeMeco Ryans’ leadership.

“You just can tell the kind of person he is, how infectious his attitude is.” https://t.co/WKxGb1HESs pic.twitter.com/0mLaLdsGny

— SportsRadio 610 (@SportsRadio610) January 13, 2024

If you need a glowing reference from anyone, how about Kyle Shanahan?

“Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with,” Shanahan said. “I didn’t want to lose him at all. DeMeco knew that he was special. DeMeco and he had a close bond together because they both were [quality control coaches].”

Let’s just repeat those first two sentences: “Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with. DeMeco knew that he was special.”

I could write down about five different scenarios for what the Seahawks are going to do and make a compelling case for each. One of those scenarios, without a doubt, would be Schneider taking the plunge on someone like Slowik. Shooting for greatness, rather than settling on a new coach. The man who craved gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the draft, when he already had Russell Wilson, doesn’t feel like a conservative coach-picker to me.

Perhaps that comment about having control over the coaching staff is indicative? Maybe the Seahawks intend to go after someone like Slowik and part of Schneider’s plan will be to use his own extensive contacts to land the defensive coordinator who can greatly improve an underperforming unit? To go and get the wise old head, in whatever capacity that might be, to act as a sounding-board for Slowik in his first big gig?

It feels brash, confident, aggressive. It feels like a John Schneider move.

Plus if he intends to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later, why not go for the man who has done as much as anyone to elevate the play of a young signal-caller this season?

And as we’ve discussed — while all of the candidates they’re talking to are worthy in their own right to be interviewed for the main role, there are some coaches who might be available down the line. A year ago, Ejiro Evero was offered the chance to stay in Denver as defensive coordinator or move on, once Sean Payton was hired. He chose to go to Carolina. Now they’re hiring a new staff. Will the Panthers similarly allow him to depart if he wishes? Could the Seahawks create enough of an impression to team him with Slowik, perhaps as ‘Assistant Head Coach/defensive coordinator’?

It’d be totally different to what the Seahawks had under Carroll. That does feel important. It’s time for a new vision, new ideas and new personnel — not clinging to the past and trying to copy what happened before.

I mean, look at what 49ers writers are saying on their websites:

Good news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Dann Quinn.

Bad news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Bobby Slowik.

If Ben Johnson really does have his heart set on Washington (as appears to be the case), Slowik could be the ideal alternative.

Assuming the Texans don’t upset the Ravens this weekend, the Seahawks would be allowed to meet with Slowik in person next week. The process will ramp up over the next seven days, with the only potential delay being the possibility of other candidates remaining in the final four. If these games go as expected, that would only leave Detroit’s Johnson unless the Seahawks do want to speak to Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald (so far, he hasn’t had a reported interview request).

If one of the worst kept secrets in football of Johnson to Washington is legit — and if Houston loses this weekend — the Seahawks won’t have any limitations in place in terms of speaking to the candidates they seem to have identified for the role. It’s not impossible that this time next week we might know who Seattle’s new Head Coach is.

Finally — I was invited on to Dan Viens’ show today to talk about the Seahawks’ coaching situation. Check it out below: