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Curtis Allen’s week eighteen watch-notes (vs Cardinals)

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

It all comes down to this.

As they did last season, the Seahawks started on a good clip at 6-3, only to falter badly down the stretch. They enter the last game of the season 8-8, needing to beat a banged-up division rival with nothing to play for but pride and needing help from a Green Bay division rival to get into the playoffs.

The symmetry would be more impressive if it were not so discouraging.

Standing before the Seahawks is a tremendous dichotomy.

On the one hand, the Cardinals will field an extremely depleted roster in this game. On offense, Wide Receiver Marquise Brown and Left Tackle D.J. Humphries have been shut down for the season. Tight End Zach Ertz was released weeks ago. That is about 2000 snaps of 2023 experience they will not have.

It’s the same on defense. Linebacker Kyzir White is on Injured Reserve, they cut Defensive Lineman Kevin Strong and Cornerback Marco Wilson and Nose Tackle Leki Fotu has just been activated on Injured Reserve and may or may not play. That is another 2000 snaps of experience there.

The punchline is, the Cardinals may field the weakest starting 22 in the NFL for this game. For all their faults, the talent advantage the Seahawks have should provide simple math that says they should win this game handily.

You add in the fact that the Seahawks in Pete Carroll’s tenure are 9-3-1 when playing in Arizona (including 8-1-1 since 2012) and you have a pretty compelling case to rely on them getting a win.

The only question should be if Chicago can defeat Green Bay.

However, on the other hand, several factors make this game tougher than it appears.

The Cardinals – despite their record and roster – have proven to be a tough out for several teams this year. Last week, they shocked the league with an impressive win against the slumping Eagles.

Their strength on offense this year – the running game, of which they stand as the #6 team in the NFL – matches up extremely favorably with the Seahawks’ defensive Achilles heel (#30 and sinking like a stone). Just like last week against Pittsburgh, this game threatens to be an extremely long and frustrating day if the defense cannot deliver on the promise Pete Carroll made this week.

The struggles of this team and the increasing frustration expressed by the coaching staff down the stretch have coalesced into a critical pivot point with this game.

In the last few seasons, we have heard many things from Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players regarding their difficulties. Things from ‘we have plenty of games left’ to ‘we just have to clean up a few things’ to ‘we knew what our opponents were throwing at us, we just did not execute like we know we can.’ These have been followed by appropriate but increasingly strained statements of positivity and belief.

Anything less than a dominating win over this Cardinals team will be an abject failure. A win that the Seahawks make harder than it should be proves nothing. It will be just another in a long line of overly heralded triumphs that quickly prove meaningless when they can neither sustain it nor compete with teams that are equally if not more talented.

No need to prevaricate. Let’s see how the Seahawks can finish off this season with a satisfying win.

Use the Offense to Control the Game

In Seattle, much of the attention this week has been focused on a very poor defensive showing against the Steelers — and rightfully so.

However, the gap in capability between the Seattle offense and the Arizona defense is so wide, the Seahawks simply must plan to score points and control the ball at a rate commensurate with that gap.

Simply put, Arizona might currently be the worst defense in the NFL. And that was before all that NFL-level experience was jettisoned or put on Injured Reserve.

They are the #31 scoring defense.

They are dead last in rushing defense. They are conceding 4.6 yards per carry, and nobody has given up rushing first downs than the Cardinals. In only three of their 16 games so far have they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Those three totals? 91, 92 and 93 yards.

Ken Walker rushed for 105 yards in 26 carries Week Five against these Cardinals. Zach Charbonnet did not play in that game. Those numbers should be considered a start for this game.

They are in the middle of the pack on pass yards conceded but their pass rush is absolutely putrid. They rank in the bottom-five of the NFL in pressures, pressure percentage, quarterback hits and sacks.

In their last three games, the Cardinals have recorded only one sack and fourteen pressures.

How did they defeat the Eagles last week with such a poor defense? They ran the ball 40 times and choked the life out of the defense, winning the time of possession game by over 19 minutes. The Eagles only punted twice, and scored three touchdowns and a field goal on their other drives. An ‘average’ offensive day was not good enough, because the Cardinals did not allow them enough possessions.

On every single snap, the Seahawks will have at least one mismatch in the passing game, perhaps several. They need to plan and execute on offense in a way that finds and exploits these mismatches. Punting several times is not an option.

The Seahawk offense must turn the tables and do what the Cardinals did to the Eagles. That can be accomplished by making liberal use of the running game.

The other option is being consistently explosive in the passing game and putting pressure on the Cardinals to keep up.

The Seahawks are the NFL’s worst offense in Time of Possession. That is no doubt partially due to their poor run defense. But they badly need to swing the numbers in their favor in this game. Concentrating on the run game is an excellent way to do that.

Let’s not mince words. This is where the game is won or lost. Because a brilliant day stopping the run by the Seahawk defense would be a welcome sight, it will be a very tough task.

Keep the Cardinals Running Game Contained

The Arizona run game was brilliant last week against the Eagles. They ran for 221 yards and that only scratches the surface of how good they were.

They ran at will on Philly. Arizona recorded a whopping ten explosive runs in the game. The Eagles had three tackles for loss but they all were for only one yard each.

All told, they ended the day with 5.5 yards per rush and an incredible 32 first downs, an NFL season high except for one game (the Dallas Cowboys had 33 first downs Week 13 vs our own Seahawks).

Lead back James Conner had nearly as many yards before contact as after contact and broke 8 tackles.

Michael Carter provided a nice change of pace and broke Eli Ricks’ ankles on a run of 18 yards:

The Seahawks must not allow these running backs to have that kind of impact on this game.

Last week, Pete Carroll explained their poor defensive performance on wanting to limit the explosive pass plays by Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. A disastrous day of tackling in the running game was the result.

If they follow the same line of thinking, the Seahawks could likewise overcommit to stopping the run, having viewed the high level of success Arizona had against the Eagles the week prior. This could prove another critical error if they are not careful.

Tight End Trey McBride has had a great year, actually providing a similar amount of catches and yards as splashy Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta (although with far less touchdowns). He is a great mid-range weapon. They also still have Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson to take deeper shots with.

Kyler Murray had a good week throwing past the sticks last week, going 4-for-5.

Balance will be critical. Remember that ‘great run defense’ the Seahawks featured early in the season? It came at the expense of regularly being exploited in the passing game. They struggled to stop the passing attacks of teams like the Rams, Lions and Panthers, making the value of a good run defense far less in the overall scheme of things.

The Seahawks coaches have to trust that the message about run defense and tackling has gotten through — and not overcommit resources to stopping the run game but rather prepare for a full spread offensive attack from the Cardinals.

Report: Seahawks ‘evaluating future after season’

According to the NFL Network reporters Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, Pete Carroll’s contract does not run until the end of the 2025 season as initially reported. There is an option for 2025 and the deal technically is only guaranteed to last until the end of next season.

Rapoport & Pelissero say the situation will be evaluated when the season ends:

The Seahawks always are evaluating and updating contingency plans in the event longtime coach Pete Carroll, now 72 years old, decides to walk away.

Seahawks chair Jody Allen usually meets with Carroll and general manager John Schneider in the days after the season concludes — which could be extended by a playoff run, with a win Sunday over the Cardinals plus a Packers loss to the Bears gets Seattle in — any decisions will wait until then.

It’s possible the NFL Network duo have included this to hedge their bets, given the renewed talk of Carroll possibly walking away a few weeks ago. Or, it could just be a growing feeling within the league that it could happen.

Either way, it’s interesting that it’s being brought up — with a clarification on Carroll’s contract — rather than just being assumed that the status quo will remain.

It might also be reassuring to some fans that the Seahawks are ‘always updating contingency plans’ if a change is to be made. They’ve given this some thought, that implies — and are prepared.

One thing to note is teams are not permitted to do interviews with coaches in the same way this year. Teams seeking to interview coaches currently employed by another club are now prohibited from conducting in-person interviews with those candidates until after the divisional round of the playoffs.

This buys every team a bit of time. If you can’t start interviewing candidates for two weeks after the regular season, you don’t have to rush decisions the day after your season ends. If Carroll walks and the Seahawks wanted to speak to — for example — Ben Johnson, Bob Slowik, Dan Quinn or Mike McDonald — they wouldn’t be able to until after the divisional round at the earliest.

So there’s plenty of time for talking this out if Seattle’s season ends tonight.

And that was the 2012 draft…

The 2012 NFL Draft is in the books. Seattle came away with ten new players, including five additions who play in the defensive front seven. Only three of the picks were spent on offensive prospects – a new quarterback, running back and a defensive tackle who will convert to guard.

It’s an intriguing draft class, but also one that raises a number of questions. The one I’m wrestling with the most is the choice of Russell Wilson in the third round. When a quarterback is drafted in round one, you fully expect that player to start quickly if not right away. In round two, you’d recognise it in a similar way – just with a little less hype. Quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 come with barely any expectation. Round three is the middle ground, the dividing line between expected starter and late round flier.

Pete Carroll has spoken so glowingly about Wilson, it’s raising expectations. At one point yesterday he went on the record stating, “More than anybody else that was alive in the draft, this guy gives you a chance to have a great player.” What exactly does that mean? That Wilson gives Seattle a better chance to have a great player than Andrew Luck? Even if this is a typically Carroll-esque piece of raw enthusiasm, it doesn’t half raise expectations within a fan-base that has been starved of a freshly drafted quarterback to root for.

Language like that makes you believe Wilson could be, realistically, considered the quarterback of the future for this team. Then you wonder, what if he’s the quarterback for now? You look a little closer and notice the way he quickly transitioned to Wisconsin after leaving NC State. The Seahawks passed on other potential immediate starters in round three at different positions. They wanted Wilson, badly.

There’s been no attempt to mask excitement about this guy. Carroll: “It’s going to be really exciting to see what he can bring. All he’s ever done is be great. This is such an incredible athlete that has had extraordinary, historic success. He has done things that people had never thought of before. The fact that he was also such an extraordinary kid, he can handle all of the pressure that he’s going to be under, and all the scrutiny that he already has.”

Wilson was the keynote addition on offense in this draft class. The decision to switch JR Sweezy to guard is merely a hopeful punt. Robert Turbin was an expected target for the Seahawks as a speedy, muscular back who will take some of the strain away from Marshawn Lynch. Wilson was the star attraction here.

Some of the prospects Seattle passed on in the process of spending that third round pick? Mohamed Sanu, a talented receiver from Rutgers. Michael Egnew, a thoroughly modern-day athletic tight end from Missouri. Lamar Miller, a potential X-factor running back who slipped due to health concerns before Miami traded up to grab him at the top of round four. Brandon Brooks, a highly rated offensive guard with huge size from Miami Ohio. All four could’ve had some kind of impact in 2012.

Yet despite investing in Matt Flynn and somewhat backing Tarvaris Jackson to compete to try and remain the starter, Seattle added another quarterback to the equation. It’s as if Carroll and co. have decided improved QB play is the key to moving the offense forward. A review, perhaps, of the frustrating play from Jackson at times last year. So rather than try to add that skill player or the big offensive lineman, the Seahawks open up the quarterback position and try to find an improvement.

This is the highest draft pick Seattle has spent on a quarterback for 19 years. If this isn’t with the intention of at least allowing Wilson to compete to start as a rookie, I’d be almost surprised. People expect Flynn to get the nod, but his contract isn’t so huge that he’s locked into the role. Jackson could find himself on the outside looking in if he doesn’t win out, given his deal is expendable. Josh Portis remains part of the roster but is he rated highly enough to stick around if the team only runs with three quarterbacks?

The Seahawks want a quarterback who can facilitate a running game, which is exactly what Wilson did at Wisconsin. They want someone who won’t turn the ball over but can still make plays, and in four years as a starter in college Wilson threw 109 touchdowns compared to just 30 interceptions. Carroll has talked about young quarterbacks being ready to start earlier these days and appears willing to consider rolling with a rookie.

At the same time, Seattle may feel like Matt Flynn deserves to have the edge in a tight competition this off-season. He’s started in the NFL, albeit only twice, and if the Seahawks only planned to use him as a back-up they may well have avoided some difficult questions a few weeks ago by choosing not to sign the former Packer. I come back to the grey area that is round three. If Wilson had been a second round pick, people would be asking ‘will he start’? If he’d been a fourth round pick, nobody would be expecting an early impact. The third round sits directly between those two extremes.

Interesting times ahead.

Turbin pick will be seen as crucial

We talked a lot on this blog about Seattle’s desire to add a running back early in the draft. A lot of people presumed the Seahawks were set having signed Marshawn Lynch to a new deal, while adding a couple of other guys to go alongside Leon Washington. However, this is a team being built around the run on offense. Lynch is the centrepiece, the MVP, the heart and soul of the unit. He also runs with a physical style that will provoke injury and he’s going to miss time in the future. It’s inevitable. When he didn’t feature against Cleveland in 2011, it had a major impact. The Seahawks want to avoid that in the future.

Rather than look for a change of pace back or someone different to Lynch, the ideal was to find someone who could logically become a starter in their own right. Doug Martin and David Wilson left the board at the back end of round one, making it unlikely the team would find their answer in the second round. Lamar Miller and Chris Polk – two players who many thought could go in that region – both fell due to injury. Ronnie Hillman and Bernard Pierce both disappeared in round three and options were starting to run out. Enter the Turbinator.

At around 5-10 and 220lbs he has the necessary size to deal with a workload. He ran a 4.50 at the combine and looked pretty ripped for a player running that kind of time. It’s that combination of size and power that will interest Seattle – he can run inside and pound or find the edge. He’s shown some ability in space and in the passing game and has suffered due to the low-profile nature of the Utah State team he played for. He’s not good in pass protection, that has to be mentioned, but it’s something he can work on.

Seattle ensured they have a younger version of the Beast in the stable, and it could be a crucial draft pick. The Seahawks need to be able to run the football, but also keep Lynch from injury-risk with too many carries. This was a smart pick and part of the plan in this draft all along.

Focus on defense

A year removed from spending two early picks on the offensive line and making some key offensive free agent signings (Sidney Rice, Zach Miller), this year the Seahawks went big on defense. Bruce Irvin will be expected to have an impact as the #15 pick in the draft. When you draft a specialist pass rusher in the top half of the draft, ahead of every other pass rusher in the class, he needs to be productive almost immediately. While the Seahawks have earned a reputation for intelligent picks late in the draft, they need to make sure they keep hitting in round one. Seattle’s can’t expect to keep finding fast starters with late round picks (such is the nature of the league) so to improve they’ll need an impact from the early rounds.

It’s not a big surprise that defense was the focus this year. The Seahawks needed a pass rusher, whether you agree with the Irvin pick or not. That was the #1 priority – always was. There’s a reason why we paired the Seahawks with a pass rusher in every single one of our mock drafts from January to April. Clearly we didn’t focus in on the right players (although nobody pegged Bruce Irvin) but a pass rusher was key nonetheless. Linebacker was also an obvious need and it was no surprise to see that position addressed in round two.

The rest of the picks come with a degree of the unknown. Korey Toomer may prove to be special teams fodder, alongside Winston Guy. Expect Guy to get the chance to fill the Atari Bigby vacancy. Jeremy Lane received rave reviews for a performance against LSU last season and could be another one of Seattle’s late round sleepers. I like 7th round pick Greg Scruggs as a physical specimen and watched footage of his pro-day where he looked the part and moved well. Jaye Howard is an underrated pass rusher from the interior who will knife through one-on-one blocks and could end up being the one guy who really has an impact from the R4-7 group.

People are already asking why the offensive line and wide receiver positions weren’t addressed. The Seahawks made some moves last year at receiver and people shouldn’t write of an improved season for all with improved health and better quarterback play. If Sidney Rice and Zach Miller play at anything like their peak in 2012, you’re talking about two potential stars. Doug Baldwin continues to develop, while Golden Tate is facing a make-or-break season. Mike Williams deserves a chance to re-emerge after a disappointing 2011.

As for the offensive line, don’t underestimate Seattle’s depth and appreciation for what they have already. The line didn’t miss a beat last year when James Carpenter and John Moffitt suffered injury and were then joined by Russell Okung. The players who stepped in were not big names or high profile draft picks, but they all thrived. Whether it’s Lemuel Jeanpierre, Paul McQuistan or Breno Giacomini – those guys deserve the chance to compete to start. Seattle has also added Deuce Lutui and Frank Omiyale, so will feel good about their chances of filling the hole left by Robert Gallery. A lot of people like to think you need five first round picks to make a good offensive line, but that simply isn’t the case.

Overall it’s a draft class that will do well to provide Seattle with as many key starters as 2010 and 2011. The Bruce Irvin pick shocked the NFL and will be similarly lauded or hammered depending on the performance of ‘Brucemode’ this year. He’s an explosive pass rusher off the edge and the Seahawks haven’t taken this move lightly. A lot of teams react to the draft, but nobody can fault Seattle for being pro-active. They know what they want, they identify roles and they attack. Irvin isn’t the type of guy you draft on a whim because he’s BPA, you draft him with a vision. Other teams like the Jets drafted Quinton Coples because he was there, and now they have to work him into the system. Irvin was probably in Seattle’s thoughts in January.

They’ll know exactly what they want from their latest first round pick and if he can provide an impact in the Raheem Brock-role, then he could end up being one of the most popular players on this team in a generation (his press conference shows why). An improved pass rush and better quarterback play were Seattle’s two defining needs coming into this draft. Irvin and Russell Wilson may well be the answer.

UDFA signings

Rishaw Johnson (OG, Cal. PA), Carson Wiggs (K, Purdue), Jon Opperud (OT, Montana), DeShawn Shead (S, Portland State), Monte Taylor (DE, Cincinnati), Phil Bates (WR/QB, Ohio), Sean McGrath (TE, Henderson State), Jermaine Kearse (WR, Washington), London Durham (CB, McNeese State), Lavasier Tuinei (WR, Oregon), Chris Hart (QB, Weber), Addison Lawrence (OT, Mississippi State)

Game tape on Kearse below:

2012 NFL Draft Day 3 – open thread

Use this thread to discuss Seattle’s picks as they come in. The Seahawks start the day with nine day-three selections:

Round four selections: Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State), Jaye Howard (DT, Florida)

Round five selections: Korey Toomer (LB, Idaho)

Round six: Jeremy Lane (CB, Northwestern State), Winston Guy (Kentucky, S)

Mayock on Lane, “There’s been a buzz about the kid for the last few weeks, I’m happy for him.”

Round seven: J.R. Sweezy (DT, NC State), Greg Scruggs (DE, Louisville)

We’ll have a reaction post to day three, including game tape, on the blog later today. We’ll also be hosting a Live Chat ‘wrap-up’ tomorrow so stay tuned for that. And when all the picks are in, we’ll start to study them. How do they fit? What are the positives and negatives? I’ll also be publishing a top-30 watch-list for the 2012 college football season.

You can see the Day 2 press conference with John Schneider and Pete Carroll by clicking here. They discuss Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson.

In this video Russell Wilson talks about how he idolizes Drew Brees.

Michael David Smith relays a quote from Pete Carroll, who is already pumped and jacked about Russell Wilson: “More than anybody else that was alive in the draft, this guy gives you a chance to have a great play.”

Will Russell Wilson start in 2012? It’s one of the questions we’ll ask later this week. This is the earliest Seattle has drafted a quarterback since 1993. Matt Flynn’s contract is stacked heavily towards his first season, but it’s not so monumental that he’s untouchable. Carroll has already talked about competition between Tarvaris Jackson and Flynn, now it’ll include Russell Wilson. It may not be the team’s ambition to thrust him into a ‘quarterback of the future’ role, but this is a team that previously hadn’t drafted a quarterback under this regime. Carroll and John Schneider have raised expectations by speaking so glowingly of the guy, so will he get a chance early? More on this after the draft.

And who left the board that seemingly had Seattle so disappointed? Schneider said yesterday: “This is a hard two round because your always going to have guys disappear on you, like argh, ones you spent so much with them, so much time evaluating the, but really we focused on that linebacker group, and the speed at that position, adding Bobby was a great deal, adding Russel he’s just phenomenal.”

The war room looked a little deflated after Mychal Kendricks left the board one pick before Bobby Wagner was selected. And Schneider admits, they were focused on the linebacker group.

Instant reaction: Seahawks add Wagner & Wilson

After shocking the NFL by drafting Bruce Irvin with the #15 pick yesterday, Seattle added Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State) and Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin) in rounds two and three on Friday.

The Seahawks moved down four spots in the second round to draft Wagner at #47, after a deal with the New York Jets (who took receiver Stephen Hill). There were a few mixed expressions in Seattle’s war room after Philadelphia took Mychal Kendricks at #46. Was the California linebacker the preferred option? Both are fast, rangy lineman who like to tackle. Carroll would’ve known all about Kendricks – who was awarded the PAC-12 defensive player of the year for 2011.

Bobby Wagner – LB – #47 overall

Regardless, it’s Wagner who makes the trip North. He missed the combine with pneumonia but ran in the 4.4’s at his pro-day. He’s 6-0 and 233lbs and is probably going to play some MIKE and WILL. The Seahawks added Irvin to boost their pass rush, and now have a linebacker compliment to KJ Wright, Leroy Hill, Malcolm Smith and Barrett Ruud. The lukewarm response to David Hawthorne’s free agent status suggested Seattle would always attack the linebacker market and that proved to be the case here. Wagner plays with a good motor – like Hawthorne – but will be able to move much more freely. He’s undersized for your traditional MIKE which could cause issues and he hasn’t a big history of pass rushing. Even so, teams are looking for big, athletic linebackers and the Seahawks clearly see that in Wagner.

He’s flashed an ability to disengage when blocked, something you don’t see from a lot of linebackers his size. At times he was touted as a first round pick for teams like the New England Patriots. Despite a lot of negativity from some pundits, this is a player who was being talked about in the top-50 for some time. He had four sacks and two interceptions last season. He’s likely to start as a rookie.

What are they saying?

Mike Mayock: “This is Pete Carroll’s kind of linebacker. He’s been a fast riser. He tested extremely well, and he’s a big linebacker. This guy is also a four-team special teams player, so you get that production from him, too. He can be explosive for them.”

Charlie Casserly: “Size and Speed is good. Strong guy. Has some instinct issues in talking to scouts.”

Mel Kiper: “I had him in 3rd. Seattle baffles me, I don’t get it.”

Chris Steuber: “Bobby Wagner is my 54th rated player. Doesn’t have definitive LB position, but has a solid skill set. Another interesting pick by the Seahawks.”

Russell Wilson – QB – #75 overall

Seattle’s appreciation for Russell Wilson wasn’t a secret. We’d touched on it a few times on the blog, and certainly there was a feeling the Seahawks would take a quarterback in the rounds 3-6 region. Brock Osweiler was the only signal caller to leave the board in round two, and Seattle capitalised by snatching Wilson in round three. When I sat down to scout players in 2009, the first guy I watched was Russell Wilson. I’ve kind of tracked his progress ever since, at NC State and Wisconsin. A year ago I spoke to several people about the Wolfpack’s decision to effectively ‘move on’ in preference of Mike Glennon, and Wilson’s subsequent decision to snub teams like defending National Champs Auburn in favor of Wisconsin.

I always liked the guy as a pure entertainment player. He spreads the ball around, he has a nice arm. He makes plays. Even so, I’m a little surprised he’s ended up being a third round pick. As much as he has been one of the best quarterbacks to watch in college football over the last few years, there just aren’t a ton of 5-11 quarterbacks out there. And while a lot of people are willing to ignore that, the fact still remains. Personally I think there have been issues with trajectory and some ‘aimed’ passes into areas that have impacted accuracy. He benefited a lot at Wisconsin with a powerful, dominating run game which allowed play-action and bootlegs to thrive, getting him out of the pocket. Is he going to go on and become another exception to the height rule? Or will it limit his ability to start?

Going back to the positives, he has a better than expected arm, perfect character and a will to succeed. The Seahawks suddenly have a very crowded group of quarterbacks, with one of Tarvaris Jackson or Josh Portis likely to be the odd man out. Unfortunately, among the quartet (which also includes Wilson and Matt Flynn) there’s not one true player who stands out. Yet. One other question needs to be asked – what do you expect from a third round quarterback? If he’s a competent back-up for years, is that enough? Does Wilson need to start down the line? What needs to happen for this decision to be deemed a success?

It’s interesting that Pete Carroll and John Schneider’s first pick at the position in three years is Russell Wilson. They were suitably ‘pumped and jacked’ in the war room after making the pick – with visible celebration and excitement. Is Wilson the quarterback of the future? How soon could he realistically start in the league? Will he challenge as a rookie?

What are they saying?

Mike Mayock: “”I can’t tell you how much I like this kid. Not only can he be a competent backup and change-of-pace quarterback, but I think someday he can be a starting-quality player.”

Dan Shonka: “Seattle grabs one of our favorite players in Russell Wilson… maybe they do know QBs?”

Chris Steuber: “Love Russell Wilson. He’s not in my Top 100, but I have him rated 107 overall. He’s my 3rd favorite QB in the draft. Great kid.”

Chris Mortensen: “Evaluators loved his football smarts, how he played under pressure, accuracy and athleticism. The height issue was brought up every time. A few evaluators believed he will become the new exception to the height rule. Big hands, long arms and has a 6th sense that execs kept mentioning can’t be measured.”

Russ Lande: “I love Russell Wilson’s intangibles and arm strength, but taking a backup QB in the 3rd round makes no sense at all to me.”

Seahawks taking risks to get better?

Seattle hasn’t done anything quietly in this draft. They’ve been bold and taken what outsiders would describe as almost reckless gambles. There won’t be any ‘A’ draft grades, but I kind of feel Carroll and Schneider would rather it be that way. Maybe they enjoy being different, or proving people wrong?

There’s a lot of boom or bust to this class so far. A pass rushing specialist from West Virginia who wasn’t an every down guy and has some off-field history. He’ll be 25 in November. A linebacker from Utah State with some athletic tools, but not a lot of splash plays at a level below the top schools. And a 5-11 quarterback. If this ends up being a solid trio in a few years, quite a few people will have to eat their words. I’d consider myself in that group, because so far I’m a bit underwhelmed. It’s quite early for a quarterback with a height question mark who might not be a starter. Irvin was explosive at times in college, but will be judged on production in the NFL and will need to have an impact for such a high pick. And time isn’t on his side as a 25-year-old rookie, he can’t afford three years to bed in.

Wagner was taken before other linebackers such as Zach Brown and Lavonte David, and will be compared to those prospects going forward – even if teams universally preferred Wagner.

Now, the Baltimore Ravens and Ozzy Newsome are the picture of draft excellence in my view. They always let the draft come to them – and it’s helped acquire (among others) Ed Reed, Michael Oher, Jimmy Smith and today Courtney Upshaw and Kelechi Osemele. The one time they were aggressive? To go and get a quarterback. It’s the pure ‘BPA’ approach. The Seahawks appear to be identifying needs and attacking them. They always wanted a LT and FS in 2010, and were fortunate enough to strike gold. They went heavy on the offensive line last year and the defensive front seven this year. Will this prove a successful formula? Only time will tell. But there’s nothing dull about the Seahawks.

Day three picks

The Seahawks made two trades on Thursday and Friday to accumulate further picks. Here’s a list of Seattle’s remaining choice:

Round four: #11 & #19

Round five: #19

Round six: #2 & #11

Round seven: #18 & #25

Tomorrow starts with the fourth round at 9:00 PST. We’ll start an open thread 30 minutes before the re-start.

What next?

The Seahawks are going to take a running back, possibly (probably?) with one of those two fourth round picks. Chris Polk (RB, Washington) and Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State) are two names to watch. Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) reportedly remains available due to concerns about an injured shoulder that may need surgery. How far will he drop? Some other names to consider: Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington), Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina), David Paulson (TE, Oregon), Orson Charles (TE, Georgia), George Iloka (S, Boise State), Keshawn Martin (WR, Michigan State), Nick Toon (WR, Wisconsin), Jeff Fuller (WR, Texas A&M), Juron Criner (WR, Arizona), Tommy Streeter (WR, Miami), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Trevor Gutyton (DE, California), Billy Winn (DT, Boise State), Frank Alexander (DE, Oklahoma), Ronnell Lewis (OLB, Oklahoma), Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss), Joe Adams (WR, Arkansas), Nicholas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor), Ron Brooks (CB, LSU), Nigel Bradham (OLB, Florida State), Marvin McNutt (WR, Iowa).

Game tape (Wagner & Wilson), Gruden QB’s Camp (Wilson) and Kiper vs Gruden (Wilson)

Instant reaction: Seahawks draft Bruce Irvin

The Seattle Seahawks keep you guessing.

There were a few whispers doing the rounds in the media pre-draft that a team would take Bruce Irvin in round one. I remember hearing that, pausing for a moment and contemplating. “I wonder? Nah.” In hindsight, I should’ve offered that rumor more than a momentary glance. The Seahawks traded down three spots from #12, collecting a fourth and sixth round pick from Philadelphia. The Eagles drafted Fletcher Cox. The Seahawks drafted Bruce Irvin at #15.

First of all, let’s address the pick. We’ve been saying on this blog for some considerable time that the Seahawks would draft a pass rusher. It has always been the focus in round one. We – and the rest of the world – just didn’t locate who was Pete’s pass rusher. As it turns out, that guy played for West Virginia. Carroll referenced in the video above that he recruited Irvin: “I thought we had special information.” Carroll claims he has incredible speed and that for a time he was the best pass rusher in college football. All true.

A year ago almost to the day, I turned my attention to the 2012 draft. It was time to start looking at the next class after Seattle had just taken James Carpenter in round one. I discovered a player so striking, he stood out as a top-ten prospect immediately. He flew off the screen. He stood out.

His name was Bruce Irvin.

In May 2011, I wrote an article titled: ‘Bruce Irvin is ready to crash the 2012 NFL Draft

Here is an exert:

When I scan through the various early 2012 mock drafts and big boards, one name is unusually absent.

Tony Pauline doesn’t list him among 40 prospects to watch this year. He isn’t part of Walter Cherepinsky or Rob Rang’s 2012 mocks. He isn’t part of Chris Steuber’s big board. In fact the only place I’ve seen this guy register is in Chad Reuter’s early projection – as the 32nd overall pick.

Yet in my opinion, he’s right up there at the top end. Ultimate star potential, a defensive prospect who may be the best overall in college football. This is one player who will help define his team as they mount what I believe is a realistic shot at making a BCS Bowl, maybe even the big one. On his highlight’s tape, they borrow the name ‘Beast Mode’, but if Marshawn Lynch watches this guy play I’m sure he won’t complain.

The best pass rusher in college football is Bruce Irvin of the West Virginia Mountaineers. He was part of my top-50 prospects for 2012.

He’s lightning quick as you’d expect given the size but unlike Von Miller who relied completely on speed, Irvin is more than willing to engage a tackle, drive him into the quarterback or beat him with stunning hand placement. I’ve never see a guy with this size paddle away an offensive lineman before.

He’s the best kept secret in college football. Last season he recorded 14 sacks and yet received virtually no hype. West Virginia pulled off a masterstroke appointing Dana Holgorsen as their offensive coordinator and future head coach. He was the mastermind behind Oklahoma State’s free-scoring offense which consistently churned out talent at running back and wide receiver. The Mountaineers will have a productive offense next season and with Irvin leading the way on defense they’re an outside pick to go unbeaten next year. That’ll help to put this guy firmly on the map.

Make no mistake this is the most devastating, dominating and exciting player you’ll watch during the 2011 college season. I’d recommend reading this piece from Geoff Coyle on Irvin’s background and route to WVU. More importantly, take a look at the schedule and make sure you grab the opportunity to watch him in action.

Irvin himself read that article, and retweeted it. He expected to be a round one pick, probably because so many people were complimenting his game. He referenced it in interviews, he talked about having a fantastic final season at WVU and being a round one pick. Without doubt the best pass rusher in college football in 2010 was not Da’Quan Bowers or Von Miller, it was Bruce Irvin.

So what happened?

Irvin had a big impact as a specialist rusher in 2010, acting on third downs and recording 14 sacks after transferring as a JUCO prospect. In 2011, the Mountaineers attempted to turn him into an every down type player. He was used in three-man fronts, right on the line and not in space. He faced regular double teams, he was hit out of plays and struggled to have an impact. In his first five games last season, he had just one sack. When he reverted back to a ‘specialist’ role, he notched 7.5 sacks in five games. Go figure.

At the combine he exploded, running the fastest time by any pass rusher with a flat 4.50 forty yard dash at 6-3 and 245lbs. He had a 1.58 10-yard split. You can see his workout by clicking here.

The Seahawks have gone after their schematic version of Aldon Smith. Except their version of Aldon Smith looks more like Clay Matthews. Don’t expect Irvin to play every down. For those wondering if Irvin is going to translate to linebacker, it probably won’t happen. He’ll play obvious passing downs, either at the LEO or replacing Raheem Brock’s nickel role. Yet he may well be just as productive. One day he could replace Chris Clemons at the LEO.

He’s a pure, speed, edge rusher with a bit of fight to his game and occasionally surprising strength. But overall, he’s going to have one responsibility – get to the QB. He’s not that young at 24, so they’ll expect an impact. In fact, he turns 25 on November 1st.

The pick at #15 summed up an extraordinary first round which flew by at just over three hours and contained many surprises. There were a number of trades, especially late in the first round. At one point Tampa Bay moved up several spots back into the first to grab Doug Martin and they merely flipped fourth rounders with Denver for the pleasure. That was a king steal for such a talented running back. Prospects like AJ Jenkins went in the first round unexpectedly. Brandon Weeden – a 29-year-old rookie to be – went 22nd overall. Irvin was the first edge rusher off the board at #15, ahead of Quinton Coples. Nobody could call events as they unfolded.

Is this a sign of the times? Or the sign of a bad draft class? Will the numerous trades and unexpected picks continue next year, or is it simply the latest trend? How will teams approach the second round? The Seahawks still have needs at running back and linebacker, but will they keep building the pass rush? Or will they look for a touchdown maker?

The Seahawks got their pass rusher, but it wasn’t the guy many expected. I hope the article I linked to above, written almost a year ago today, shows the kind of potential Irvin has. Don’t be down on this pick. I’ll leave you with some links, game tape and a quote to stew on from Seattle’s latest first round pick: “I love eating quarterbacks.”

NOTE – We’re back tomorrow for another live chat from 15:30 PST

LINKS

Les Carpenter: West Virginia prospect Bruce Irvin ditches burglary, drug game for shot at NFL

Frank Rose: Bruce Irvin Turning Heads at the 2012 NFL Combine

James Choy: Irvin sees a bright future ahead

Sports Illustrated: Seattle takes West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin

NFL Network: Bruce Irvin draft profile

Live Chat: NFL Draft 2012

The 2012 draft is here. Instant analysis as round one unfolds.

The final 2012 mock draft

First round

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
Confirmed.
#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
Robert Griffin III has probably already started looking for property in the capital.
#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
Minnesota want what the Rams got from Washington, and they’re trying, but ultimately they’ll stay here and take Kalil.
#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
The Browns have to find someone to build around. Richardson is a future superstar.
#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.
#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
The Rams need to find an X-factor on offense.
#7 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina)
Who knows what the Jaguars are going to do? Will Gene Smith or Shahid Khan make the choice?
#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M)
Don’t be surprised after a month of hype if Miami does something else and Tannehill falls a bit.
#9 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State)
Carolina could go in many different (defensive) directions.
#10 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
The Bills need a left tackle, but can they justify taking one here?
#11 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College)
Scott Pioli loves guys like this – blue collar, high work ethic. He’ll make him fit into the 3-4.
#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama)
It’s all about the pass rush.
#13 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford)
Arizona needs to make a solid commitment to the offensive line.
#14 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)
If Barron falls here he could be the choice. Otherwise, I suspect Brockers or Poe.
#15 Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
The fastest riser going into the draft.
#16 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
New York wants to run the ball and dominate up front.
#17 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Better in run support than coverage, but I suspect Cincy will try and add a corner in round one.
#18 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina)
If he starts to drop, where does he leave the board? San Diego would have alternatives here.
#19 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
He could fall further if you believe the talk.
#20 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
Tough to read this guy’s stock. Tape not as great as the numbers/measurables. Off-field concerns. But talented.
#21 Peter Konz (OG/C, Wisconsin)
Underrated.
#22 Rueben Randle (WR, LSU)
After taking Richardson to star on the ground, they go for Randle.
#23 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
Concerns about existing lineman could force Detroit to address the offensive line.
#24 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama)
This guy was made to play in the AFC North.
#25 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU)
This is arguably Denver’s biggest need.
#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
Would they consider Coby Fleener as an alternative?
#27 Shea McClellin (OLB, Boise State)
Mike Vrabel is often the comparison for this guy.
#28 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
Green Bay’s priority has to be finding another pass rusher.
#29 Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
There could be a late rush on offensive lineman.
#30 Amini Silatolu (OG, Midwestern State)
The Niners may well take a guard and Silatolu is raw – just like Mike Iupati.
#31 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
For whatever reason, I can just picture this guy as a Patriot.
#32 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia)
He looks a bit sloppy and his stock is all over the place. Even so, he could go higher.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
#35 Minnesota – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#36 Tampa Bay – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#37 Cleveland – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#38 Jacksonville – Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
#39 St. Louis – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#40 Carolina – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#41 Buffalo – Mitchell Schwartz (OT, California)
#42 Miami – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
#43 Seattle – Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
#44 Kansas City – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
#47 New York Jets – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
#48 New England – Casey Heyward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#49 San Diego – Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
#50 Chicago – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#51 Philadelphia – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#54 Detroit – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#55 Atlanta – Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri)
#56 Pittsburgh – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#58 Houston – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Bruce Irvin, (DE, West Virginia)
#63 New York Giants – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#64 New England – Keyshawn Martin (WR, Michigan State)

Seahawks beyond rounds 1-2

If the Seahawks go DE & LB with their first two picks, running back is likely to be high on the agenda in round three. Chris Polk and Robert Turbin could be options given they’re more likely to be able to carry the load if Marshawn Lynch misses time. That is the key here. It may put off the Seahawks looking at an Isaiah Pead or LaMichael James. If the value just isn’t there at running back, there are some nice options at tight end such as Dwayne Allen and Orson Charles. At receiver, Seattle worked out Brian Quick and if you get Dwight Jones at any point in this draft, I think you’re getting a steal.

Expect Seattle to look at the quarterback market in rounds 4-6, although round three is a possibility depending on how things shake out. Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson could be on the radar as ‘early’ options, with Chandler Harnish a possible later round choice. Keep an eye on any cornerback over 5-11. There’s solid depth in this class all the way to round four, so Seattle may be able to address several key needs.

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