This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…
It all comes down to this.
As they did last season, the Seahawks started on a good clip at 6-3, only to falter badly down the stretch. They enter the last game of the season 8-8, needing to beat a banged-up division rival with nothing to play for but pride and needing help from a Green Bay division rival to get into the playoffs.
The symmetry would be more impressive if it were not so discouraging.
Standing before the Seahawks is a tremendous dichotomy.
On the one hand, the Cardinals will field an extremely depleted roster in this game. On offense, Wide Receiver Marquise Brown and Left Tackle D.J. Humphries have been shut down for the season. Tight End Zach Ertz was released weeks ago. That is about 2000 snaps of 2023 experience they will not have.
It’s the same on defense. Linebacker Kyzir White is on Injured Reserve, they cut Defensive Lineman Kevin Strong and Cornerback Marco Wilson and Nose Tackle Leki Fotu has just been activated on Injured Reserve and may or may not play. That is another 2000 snaps of experience there.
The punchline is, the Cardinals may field the weakest starting 22 in the NFL for this game. For all their faults, the talent advantage the Seahawks have should provide simple math that says they should win this game handily.
You add in the fact that the Seahawks in Pete Carroll’s tenure are 9-3-1 when playing in Arizona (including 8-1-1 since 2012) and you have a pretty compelling case to rely on them getting a win.
The only question should be if Chicago can defeat Green Bay.
However, on the other hand, several factors make this game tougher than it appears.
The Cardinals – despite their record and roster – have proven to be a tough out for several teams this year. Last week, they shocked the league with an impressive win against the slumping Eagles.
Their strength on offense this year – the running game, of which they stand as the #6 team in the NFL – matches up extremely favorably with the Seahawks’ defensive Achilles heel (#30 and sinking like a stone). Just like last week against Pittsburgh, this game threatens to be an extremely long and frustrating day if the defense cannot deliver on the promise Pete Carroll made this week.
The struggles of this team and the increasing frustration expressed by the coaching staff down the stretch have coalesced into a critical pivot point with this game.
In the last few seasons, we have heard many things from Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players regarding their difficulties. Things from ‘we have plenty of games left’ to ‘we just have to clean up a few things’ to ‘we knew what our opponents were throwing at us, we just did not execute like we know we can.’ These have been followed by appropriate but increasingly strained statements of positivity and belief.
Anything less than a dominating win over this Cardinals team will be an abject failure. A win that the Seahawks make harder than it should be proves nothing. It will be just another in a long line of overly heralded triumphs that quickly prove meaningless when they can neither sustain it nor compete with teams that are equally if not more talented.
No need to prevaricate. Let’s see how the Seahawks can finish off this season with a satisfying win.
Use the Offense to Control the Game
In Seattle, much of the attention this week has been focused on a very poor defensive showing against the Steelers — and rightfully so.
However, the gap in capability between the Seattle offense and the Arizona defense is so wide, the Seahawks simply must plan to score points and control the ball at a rate commensurate with that gap.
Simply put, Arizona might currently be the worst defense in the NFL. And that was before all that NFL-level experience was jettisoned or put on Injured Reserve.
They are the #31 scoring defense.
They are dead last in rushing defense. They are conceding 4.6 yards per carry, and nobody has given up rushing first downs than the Cardinals. In only three of their 16 games so far have they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Those three totals? 91, 92 and 93 yards.
Ken Walker rushed for 105 yards in 26 carries Week Five against these Cardinals. Zach Charbonnet did not play in that game. Those numbers should be considered a start for this game.
They are in the middle of the pack on pass yards conceded but their pass rush is absolutely putrid. They rank in the bottom-five of the NFL in pressures, pressure percentage, quarterback hits and sacks.
In their last three games, the Cardinals have recorded only one sack and fourteen pressures.
How did they defeat the Eagles last week with such a poor defense? They ran the ball 40 times and choked the life out of the defense, winning the time of possession game by over 19 minutes. The Eagles only punted twice, and scored three touchdowns and a field goal on their other drives. An ‘average’ offensive day was not good enough, because the Cardinals did not allow them enough possessions.
On every single snap, the Seahawks will have at least one mismatch in the passing game, perhaps several. They need to plan and execute on offense in a way that finds and exploits these mismatches. Punting several times is not an option.
The Seahawk offense must turn the tables and do what the Cardinals did to the Eagles. That can be accomplished by making liberal use of the running game.
The other option is being consistently explosive in the passing game and putting pressure on the Cardinals to keep up.
The Seahawks are the NFL’s worst offense in Time of Possession. That is no doubt partially due to their poor run defense. But they badly need to swing the numbers in their favor in this game. Concentrating on the run game is an excellent way to do that.
Let’s not mince words. This is where the game is won or lost. Because a brilliant day stopping the run by the Seahawk defense would be a welcome sight, it will be a very tough task.
Keep the Cardinals Running Game Contained
The Arizona run game was brilliant last week against the Eagles. They ran for 221 yards and that only scratches the surface of how good they were.
They ran at will on Philly. Arizona recorded a whopping ten explosive runs in the game. The Eagles had three tackles for loss but they all were for only one yard each.
All told, they ended the day with 5.5 yards per rush and an incredible 32 first downs, an NFL season high except for one game (the Dallas Cowboys had 33 first downs Week 13 vs our own Seahawks).
Lead back James Conner had nearly as many yards before contact as after contact and broke 8 tackles.
Michael Carter provided a nice change of pace and broke Eli Ricks’ ankles on a run of 18 yards:
OH MY, Michael Carter 😳
📺: #AZvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/sFjqko01pD pic.twitter.com/sw7PfpPJEd— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
The Seahawks must not allow these running backs to have that kind of impact on this game.
Last week, Pete Carroll explained their poor defensive performance on wanting to limit the explosive pass plays by Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. A disastrous day of tackling in the running game was the result.
If they follow the same line of thinking, the Seahawks could likewise overcommit to stopping the run, having viewed the high level of success Arizona had against the Eagles the week prior. This could prove another critical error if they are not careful.
Tight End Trey McBride has had a great year, actually providing a similar amount of catches and yards as splashy Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta (although with far less touchdowns). He is a great mid-range weapon. They also still have Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson to take deeper shots with.
Kyler Murray had a good week throwing past the sticks last week, going 4-for-5.
Balance will be critical. Remember that ‘great run defense’ the Seahawks featured early in the season? It came at the expense of regularly being exploited in the passing game. They struggled to stop the passing attacks of teams like the Rams, Lions and Panthers, making the value of a good run defense far less in the overall scheme of things.
The Seahawks coaches have to trust that the message about run defense and tackling has gotten through — and not overcommit resources to stopping the run game but rather prepare for a full spread offensive attack from the Cardinals.