The trio, in happier times
Exactly a month ago I wrote an article assessing the futures of Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll and John Schneider.
With a losing season now confirmed, it’s time to review where things stand with three games to go until the biggest off-season in over a decade.
What I said a month ago: Russell Wilson will seek a trade
My view in November was that while Wilson had no specific interest in leaving the Seahawks — and would probably prefer to stay — he would request a trade without major organisational change.
Essentially, it would need Carroll and Schneider to move on.
I still think is true. Yet I think, increasingly, we’re heading towards a situation where he might believe a fresh start is necessary regardless.
With Jordan Schultz and Ian Rapoport already reporting that Wilson has extended his list of potential trade destinations to include the New York Giants, Philadelphia and Denver — it’s starting to feel like the writing is on the wall.
Things could move quite quickly once the season ends.
I suspect we’re going to see a wild market for veteran quarterbacks. The lack of attractive options in the draft, coupled with a mediocre top-end of the 2022 class overall, will likely see teams turn their attentions to what’s available via trade.
Further to that, there are teams ready to make a big move.
The Denver Broncos appear primed to make a statement trade. The New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers will likely be involved. The Giants need to do something and appear in a state of utter desperation (more on that shortly). The Dolphins nearly pulled off a deal for Deshaun Watson before the deadline and clearly the Carolina Panthers need a new starter.
Philly, Washington, Detroit and maybe even Atlanta could also be scouring the market.
It seems there are willing sellers, too.
The Seahawks might be more willing to part with Wilson in 2022, after blocking any such move earlier this year. Aaron Rodgers’ contract restructure makes a departure somewhat likely from Green Bay (but you never really know with Rodgers). Watson will eventually leave Houston.
We could see an explosion of deals.
My preference is not for Wilson to be dealt. As desperately poorly as he’s played at times this year, I think there are factors to consider.
Firstly, the finger injury. Wilson doesn’t miss on throws like the deep-ball to D.K. Metcalf in LA. Clearly he isn’t close to 100% and I don’t think people should overlook the impact of the injury just to fit an agenda.
Neither do I think anyone is to blame for Wilson playing despite not being close to his healthy best. Wilson isn’t the type of person to sit out. You can criticise him for that if you want but I can’t. I don’t want a quarterback who does what Ben Roethlisberger’s been doing for the last few years. Equally, I don’t blame Carroll for going with Wilson, injury and all. Wilson returning to form, gradually, was their best shot to put things right. It was not Geno Smith, despite what some people think.
Secondly — I just think things have gone stale and flat. Wilson deserves criticism for his play. He hasn’t played anywhere near well enough. Yet I look at this offense and have no idea what they’re trying to do — regardless of who the quarterback is. They can’t hang their hat on anything. They can’t run with consistency. They don’t have a great quick-passing game. They don’t feature their stars well enough.
I think Shane Waldron has proven to either be out of his depth or going through some serious growing pains as a playcaller. Yet the offense, to me, is deeply uninspiring and frankly — it’s dreadful.
For too long now the Seahawks have endured issues. When you look at the list of coordinators they’ve had — Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer and now Waldron — it’s seriously underwhelming. Too often they’ve relied on magic from either the quarterback or, in the case of Bevell, from Marshawn Lynch.
So as poorly as Wilson has played, I’m also unwilling to forget (as some people are) what he’s shown in a glorious career that has him on a Hall of Fame trajectory. And I’m intrigued by the idea of finally having a top-class playcaller and schemer running the offense before shipping him off somewhere else.
None of Carroll’s offensive coordinators have amounted to anything after leaving Seattle. None were seen as a major coup when appointed — despite a level of intrigue surrounding Waldron, purely through association to Sean McVay.
I want to see Wilson with a top-level offensive mind because I sense replacing him will be absolutely terrifying. Unlike many others, I’ve studied the quarterback class extensively. I also know it’s a bleak quarterback outlook in college currently. I don’t see many solutions in the future, only problems.
I sense some people are tired of me comparing Carroll and Seattle to Green Bay and Mike McCarthy. Yet I do think it’s a valid point. They went from six wins in back-to-back years and people doubting Aaron Rodgers (including the team, they drafted Jordan Love in round one) to back-to-back 13 win seasons, back-to-back NFC Championships and they’re on the march again this year.
People point out they had a strong O-line. They drafted Elgton Jenkins in 2019 though. Josh Myers was selected only this year. David Bakhtiari has missed a lot of time through injury. Their current line includes a recent sixth round pick, two recently undrafted players and a free agent journeyman right tackle.
The major changes were thus — they removed their long-term Head Coach (McCarthy) and introduced a progressive, offensive-minded replacement. They rebuilt their pass rush and made the trenches a strength. They developed a running game and invested in good running backs. And they hit on draft picks in their secondary.
That, to me, is a viable path forward for Seattle. New coach, reinforce the lines, develop a consistent running game and draft better. I believe Wilson can succeed quickly in that environment and the Seahawks can turn things around quickly.
Despite their lack of draft stock, they have a projected $44.3m in cap space in 2022. Cutting Bobby Wagner creates another $17m. Despite his high tackle numbers, I don’t see any justification for paying Wagner $20m next year. His best days are in the past.
It’s seemingly a taboo subject to criticise Wagner — but his performances are getting worse. He received a 37.0 grade against the Rams and his season grade of 73.3 is a significant regression from 2020 (83.2).
It’s time to shift resource to the trenches. It’s just a shame they can’t do the same with Jamal Adams and his contract for another year or two.
In a bizarro world scenario where I was afforded five minutes with Jody Allen — this is what I would pitch. With gusto and passion. I would plead with her to be bold and ambitious to find a dynamic new coach and leader who is willing to follow the Green Bay blueprint.
However, I do believe in the saying ‘where there’s smoke there’s fire’. Seeing Albert Breer tout a Wilson trade to the Giants enhanced a point of view I feel is becoming increasingly likely.
As I noted yesterday, the Giants franchise has hit the rocks. The on-field product is horrendous. The fans are extremely unhappy with owner John Mara, to the point he’s being viciously booed during two ceremonies celebrating legendary players having their numbers retired. The Giants also experienced a PR disaster at the weekend, offering a paltry ‘free soda’ to season ticket holders as a thank you for their loyalty, creating a lot of social media laughter, then having small-print dictate and limit the size and type of soda they were being offered.
The franchise has become a laughing stock. Mara needs a ballsy move to get things going. If he lands a top quarterback, such as Wilson, he can potentially generate some positive headlines.
Some people might say the price will be so high that the Giants would invite criticism. Look — it can be spun many ways. Jamal Adams cost a fortune. One more first round pick added to the deal is hardly a stretch for a big name quarterback and the New York media will jump at the chance to make that price comparison. Plus the value has been set by prior trades such as the Matt Stafford deal. Whatever your personal view on Wilson and Stafford — the two players have had very different careers.
You could even argue that if Stafford leads the Rams on a strong playoff run, it will encourage teams to emulate the trade LA made — albeit with the knowledge it’d be a sellers market, given the draft situation.
And that’s the other thing to remember. For Seattle, Green Bay and Houston to part with their quarterbacks — they will expect to receive a steep price. Teams such as the Giants and the Broncos can’t turn to their fans and justify another year of mediocre quarterback play. They need a proper plan. They are in a bracket labelled ‘desperate’.
We know all too well in Seattle what happens when desperate teams start making trades.
Increasingly people are wondering what Wilson’s dip in performance will do to his trade value. I think that’s a red-herring. Teams will gamble on established quarterbacks. Heck, it’s not that long ago Sam Bradford was being passed around the league for a first round pick every year. By February and March, people won’t be talking about Wilson’s poor form with a bad finger. They’ll be talking about him in the terms of a superstar QB.
Thus — my prediction currently would align with Breer’s. Wilson to the Giants for a small fortune. Multiple picks — including New York’s two in round one for 2022. Possibly players, perhaps even a sacrificial lamb such as injury-hit Saquon Barkley.
I’m not sure how Seattle would move forward from there. But I am certain that if this happens, the status quo plotting the next rebuild cannot remain. The reset years of 2018-2021 have turned the Seahawks into a floundering mess. That has to come with consequences.
As Adam Kilgore notes in the Washington Post today:
“Once bursting with star players, verve and innovative ideas that changed the sport, the Seahawks play stale football with a mediocre and seemingly unhappy roster.”
They are stale and boring. They once set trends but now appear to be the kind of team neutral fans desperately hope aren’t featured in prime time.
What I said a month ago: Pete Carroll will walk
I still believe this will happen.
I’ve heard all the arguments that insist Carroll will have no interest in walking away or retiring. That could prove true. But I think too many people are ignoring some things that must be considered.
As we’ve noted many times this year, leading NFL insider Jay Glazer reported at the end of the 2017 season that Carroll was considering retirement. Ultimately, he chose to lead the rebuild instead.
But if he was thinking of quitting four years ago, why is it unlikely now — when the franchise is faced with a far greater restructure?
In 2018 they simply built behind Wilson and Wagner. Now, they’d need to find a new franchise quarterback. That’s a massive task that could take years. Does Carroll seriously want to spend 2-3 years running through the options, potentially facing the kind of seasons he had in 2010 and 2011?
He admitted himself — he wouldn’t have been in Seattle as long as he has without Wilson. A future with Carroll means a future without Wilson.
I cannot imagine him wanting to sour his legacy or take on the mammoth task that lies ahead. The only solution would be to take the added stock in a Wilson trade and deal for Rodgers or Watson. Yet why would either quarterback invite such a proposal? Especially given Wilson’s clear public loss of faith in Carroll’s philosophy?
People mention the long-term contract and the money. Let’s get one thing straight. Money is no object to Jody Allen. A golden handshake deal would be distinctly possible and that would mean no loss of earning for Carroll. This is a franchise that paid off Jim Mora after one year. Mutually parting on good terms with the best coach in team history is hardly a stretch.
In terms of the fact Carroll signed a deal just a year ago. He agreed that deal when Seattle was 6-1. So much has changed since then — especially with the QB. Stating Carroll wouldn’t depart early seems like an assumption to me, rather than anything rooted in cast-iron fact.
I also wouldn’t put it past Allen to simply fire Carroll and make changes. That’s how badly this franchise has drifted. Personally I hope it doesn’t come to that and my preference would be for Carroll — now that the slim playoff hopes are gone — to announce he’s leaving at the end of the season. It would give the team extra time to bring in a replacement. It would also give the fans an opportunity to give Carroll a proper send-off.
Better to walk away a hero than stick around too long and become the villain.
What I said a month ago: John Schneider is the big question mark
This to me is still the most interesting talking point.
I can imagine a scenario where Allen and co lean on Schneider. They hand him the power and control, having only signed a new deal at the start of the year. He picks the next coach and sets out the new vision.
The thing is — this scenario almost certainly means Wilson is traded. I think the relationship between Schneider and Wilson (and Mark Rodgers) is broken. If you want Wilson to stay, I suspect it will take a clean sweep of new coach, new GM.
Allen might be hesitant to part with Wilson. Who knows? She too might prefer the Green Bay model I’ve been touting.
But as I said, it might be convenient to trust in Schneider and let him dictate the future. I’m just not sure it’s the right move.
I do think Carroll has a degree of control over the draft and player acquisition. That’s not to suggest the GM just sits in the corner typing out emails and making calls. I do think it’s a collaboration, yet with Carroll ultimately having final say and dictating the plan of action.
I can’t say that Schneider wouldn’t have made every botched pick, wouldn’t have done the Adams trade and wouldn’t have squandered so much resource. I think the front office is full of hubris and misplaced self-confidence. Too often the Seahawks have acted like the smartest men in the room — when the right decisions simply required common sense, modesty and at times — predictability.
Rather than learn from mistakes, they’ve made more serious ones year-by-year.
Yet I do think there’s enough to suggest this is mostly Carroll’s baby. He is, after all, the man at the top with overall control.
The problem for those of us on the outside looking in is we can’t establish the extent of Schneider’s decision making. It’s hard to say what you want to happen, without making assumptions.
What can’t be disputed is the 2018 reset failed spectacularly. Resources have been squandered and the result is a 5-9 team that doesn’t even own the top-10 pick it’s destined to receive for a wasted season.
For that reason, I’d prefer wholesale change. I’m just not sure the Seahawks will see it that way.
Luckily, there’s only three more games to wait and find out.
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