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Rob Staton & Matt Mikolas discuss the big Seahawks topics.

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Having posted a breakdown of +70 players I think warrant first, second or third round grades, I wanted to focus on 20 specifically who I’ve enjoyed studying.

I’ve not included the likes of Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson and Derek Stingley. I could’ve listed more names but wanted to stick to 20 for now.

Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
The feeling is that Alabama stymied Georgia in the SEC Championship, opening up a defense that had previously been dominant during the 2021 season. I re-watched the game this week and that certainly wasn’t the case regarding Georgia’s two stud defensive tackles who both excelled. Davis is a unique player. He’s 6-6, 340lbs and absorbed double-teams even against Alabama. Yet despite his size and incredible power to control the POA and drive blockers into the pocket, he has extreme quickness and athleticism to shoot gaps, disengage and explode to the quarterback and chase down ball-carriers. He is a rare talent and only a notch below Vita Vea’s potential when he entered the draft in 2018.

Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
I think he’s the best left tackle prospect in the draft. Penning plays with violence and aggression and gets after defenders. He is the opposite of passive as a blocker. His initial contact is often a jolting punch that shifts a lineman off the spot and he’ll frequently knock someone out of contain in the running game. He’s a people mover. He’s one of the best ‘finishers’ I’ve watched since starting this blog in 2008. When he connects there’s very little hand-fighting and calling it a day. Penning wants to drive you into the turf. He has an 83.5 inch wingspan and can dunk a basketball too.

Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
A lot of people are projecting Neal as a top-five pick at left tackle. I think he could be tried at left tackle but his natural fit, in my opinion, is moving inside to guard. His frame appears suited to that switch and I think that’s where his skill-set matches up. Neal is a powerhouse. He’s around 350lbs and I don’t want him trying to protect the speed rush off the edge — working against much smaller, quicker defenders. I want him lined up inside 1v1, hammering people off the snap. He’s big, explosive and physical with the potential to be an elite guard.

Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
Raimann is a special tackle prospect with all of the physical skills you’d expect from a first round pick. He’s 6-7 and 305lbs and runs a 1.56 10-yard split. He can jump a 33 inch vertical and a 9-8 broad. Raimann shows very athletic footwork and it allows him to recover and counter when things don’t go entirely to plan. He handles the speed rush with a good kick-slide and he’s capable of being a ‘dancing bear’ to seal off the edge. He’s able to bench-press on contact by getting his hands inside to stone speed-to-power rushes. His powerful hands connect and lock-on vs the bull rush and he can plant the anchor against bigger rushers.

Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
Watching him control and handle Kayvon Thibodeaux was enough to have me sold but the more I watched the more I liked. I don’t think I’ve seen a right tackle since Tyron Smith look so comfortable operating in space, blocking 1v1 in pass-pro. His footwork to handle stunts is incredible and he reads them well. He doesn’t get too deep in his drop but he’s athletic enough to be able to stick with top speed rushers and contain. So many players are terrified at facing a player like Thibodeaux that they cede so much ground off the snap and invite pressure. They’re playing defense. Lucas is an offensive-minded tackle who backs his own physical profile to win on the front-foot. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ — an incredible time.

Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
This is a player I would put a big ring around and bang the table for. His limited role at Florida, which was bizarre, likely keeps him on the board longer than his talent warrants. He is a tone-setting runner and exactly the type of player Seattle’s running game misses when Chris Carson is out with his latest injury. He has ideal size at 5-10 and 215/220lbs. He has the kind of explosive traits you need at the position (37 inch vertical). His cuts are electric. He runs a 4.50 and benches 390lbs. He is a monster who just needs an opportunity to deliver on his immense potential.

David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
Prototype edge rusher with the initial burst and quickness, length and lean frame (6-5, 250lbs) teams look for. He possess great balance to challenge offensive tackles with speed and then bending at the arc. He’s able to keep his frame clean and explode to the passer. You see evidence of speed-to-power and spin moves — so he’s not a one-dimensional rusher. His motor is good and while it’s certainly helped playing across from Aidan Hutchinson, he’s not succeeded purely from the attention Hutchinson demands. He scored a 106.74 at SPARQ.

Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
I feel like I’ve been forced to play down Linderbaum this year — but only because draft media keeps elevating him too high. He’s not a top-10 pick, as some are projecting. He deserves to be considered a top-40 pick with the potential to go in round one. He’s slightly undersized (290-295lbs) and we’ll need to see his arm length and explosive testing. There are snaps where he’s pushed back and he could be overwhelmed by bigger linemen. However, he has an impressive wrestling background (beating Tristan Wirfs in High School) and you see that in the way he battles up front. He’s athletic and said to be capable of a 1.55 10-yard split and a 4.22 short shuttle. The obvious comparison is Garrett Bradbury.

Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
One of my favourite players to watch so far and a player capable of emulating Houston team mate (and former SDB interview subject) Payton Turner and going in the first round. He is a typical inside/out threat with a ceiling to be as good as any in the league. How so? It’s his range. He can line up inside and push interior linemen into the quarterback. On another snap he’ll swim into the backfield, showing quickness and agility. He can play off the edge and win with speed or speed-to-power. He has very few limitations. He’s 6-6 and 275lbs and had 13 TFL’s this season. Keep an eye on Hall because he has bags of potential.

Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
The former Georgia defender transferred to FSU and put on a clinic in 2021. He registered 17.5 TFL’s and 11.5 sacks. He has classic edge size at 6-5 and 262lbs but is a candidate to play SAM snaps as well as feature at outside linebacker or as a 4-3 end. He ran a 4.5 40-yard dash in high school and could go quicker with the right training. His first-step quickness is impressive and he has a repertoire of moves including an effective swim, spin and bull-rush. He’s a former JUCO standout, after being deemed academically ineligible. He then went to Georgia before transferring to Florida State.

Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
I mentioned earlier that Jordan Davis impressed for Georgia against Alabama, despite the result. Wyatt was equally impressive. He consistently burst into the backfield, created pressure and had an excellent game. He is quickly becoming the forgotten man of this class and deserves to be rated very highly. Reportedly he can run a 4.87 forty and jump 31 inches in the vertical and 9-3 in the broad. He’s well sized (6-3, 315lbs) and will be a disruptive interior force at the next level.

Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
Strong is a superb anticipation thrower to the sideline. His speed-outs are nearly always thrown with timing and velocity. He has excellent arm strength and the ability to go through progressions and fit passes into tight windows at an elite college level. Strong’s technique is solid and his shoulder is often aligned to the target. Once he makes his decision to throw there’s no wasted movement. He has a superb, compact delivery. His whip-like release generates velocity. The ball pops out of his hand and he has a very smooth throwing motion. The problems are two-fold with Strong. One, he has a knee issue that will need to be thoroughly investigated. Two, he is a statue in the pocket. Thus, he takes an incredible number of sacks and has very little ability to improvise or extend plays.

Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
Pickett has developed into a gun-slinging dynamo with underrated athleticism that didn’t receive enough attention until his famous ‘fake-slide’ touchdown run in the ACC Championship game. He’s adept at subtle pocket-movement to buy time and deliver throws. He can make plays downfield, he’s good throwing on the run and he’s similar to Joe Burrow in that while he’s not an amazing runner — he’s capable of making some gains when the play breaks down. There are issues, though. His hand size is said to be 8 1/2 inches which is tiny — and he throws wearing gloves. He’s also too hesitant at times in the pocket, rejecting open plays as called to take off and extend. He’s fun to watch, though. He ran a 4.25 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 35 inch vertical. He’s an athlete.

Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Ridder delivers ‘wow’ moments as a passer, is an excellent athlete and has driven Cincinnati into the college football playoffs against the odds. However, he’s also frustratingly inconsistent and capable of ‘WTF’ moments to go with the magic. He has a skinny frame which could be a problem with the pro-punishment forthcoming. However — he just has X-factor talent that will give him a shot to make it in the NFL. The inconsistency probably keeps him on the board until rounds two or three but someone will take a chance and they could be rewarded spectacularly.

Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Pass protection is an underrated quality among running backs. Several, including Alabama’s admittedly skilful and explosive Brian Robinson, aren’t very good at it. Zach Charbonnet is the best I’ve seen so far. It’s an added quality that should enable him to start quickly at the next level. He’s a former four-star recruit for Michigan who transferred to UCLA. He’s 6-1 and 220lbs and combines explosive running ability and the ability to run through contact with agility and quickness. He’s a capable receiver. Assuming he’s a mid-round pick, he provides an opportunity to get a starting, productive running back at value.

Phidarian Mathis (DT, Alabama)
He doesn’t have the same level of upside as Devonte Wyatt but he’s an extremely active, busy defensive tackle who plays with the kind of physicality you’d expect from an Alabama lineman. His testing numbers could be a concern. He ran a 5.38 forty at SPARQ and only managed a 24 inch vertical. He’s added over 30lbs since High School and seems to have upped his game. This year he has eight sacks and 10 TFL’s. He’s 6-4 and 320lbs with an 84 inch wingspan. Whether it’s gap control or shooting into the backfield, he has an intriguing skillset and looks ready to go to war at the next level.

Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
I’m not sure if tight end will end up being a ‘need’ for Seattle in 2022 but it’s the deepest position in the class so it’s worth tapping into. McBride will need to show off his agility testing to warrant a top-40 grade. The short shuttle and three cone are very important at TE. His YAC ability is seriously impressive — as he drives through contact and finishes runs. There’s no doubt about his willingness to block. He’s not the biggest at 6-4 and 260lbs but he gives everything at the LOS. His footwork enables a strong base, he keeps his feet moving to drive on contact and there are flashes of violence where he buries opponents into the turf, playing until the whistle. He’s the type of player you can build around.

Matt Bedford (T, Indiana)
Some are slating him to switch inside to guard but I thought he looked really good at right tackle. He has tackle size (6-6, 310lbs) and does a terrific job blocking with power. His lower and upper body work together and he’s in control — avoiding over-extending. He puts himself in a position to engage and work defenders. He’s a mauler who can drive off the snap and be a force in the running game, while holding his own in pass protection. The Seahawks are probably going to be in the market for a right tackle this off-season and depending on how he tests, Bedford is a terrific day-two option.

Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
We’ve been talking about Ferguson for three years and it’s never truly come together for him at Wisconsin. There have been flashes in the passing game but frustratingly they’ve never been able to feature him in a way his talent suggested was possible. He’s a good blocker and has the ability to operate as a plus, mobile pass-catcher — with dynamic red zone potential. His ball skills are strong and if his lack of college production sends him down the board, he could be a terrific value pick. As noted earlier, agility testing is huge at tight end. At SPARQ, Ferguson ran a 4.15 short shuttle.

Derrick Deese Jr (TE, San Jose State)
I’m a huge fan of Deese, while admitting his fit will be a tough one to workout for the next level. He’s about 235-240lbs and if you want him to line up and grind things out as a blocker, there are better options in this class. Neither is he very likely to run a 4.50 at the combine and blow everyone away with his speed. Yet when you watch the tape — he’s just such a reliable catcher. He shows strong hands, excellent ball-tracking, body-control and the ability to position himself to get a jump on defenders. He’s physical enough and competitive. I think he could be one of those players who is effective and works out a role at the next level.

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A lot of people have discussed the prospect of trading Russell Wilson to rebuild Seattle’s roster. It’s a conversation worth having but too often the true reality of what it means is overlooked.

Wilson’s list of prospective destinations earlier this year included New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago and Las Vegas.

The Cowboys have since signed Dak Prescott to a huge extension, ruling them out.

The situation with the Raiders has changed significantly, with a chaotic last few weeks sending Las Vegas into an unknown future where replacing Derek Carr is the least of their worries.

Chicago traded their 2022 first round pick to move up and select Justin Fields. So they’re out.

It leaves the New Orleans Saints as the one clear option of the original four.

Adam Schefter appeared on Philadelphia radio recently and stated Wilson would waive his no-trade clause to join the Eagles. In 2019, prior to signing his new contract, there was also plenty of talk in the media (including from those with connections to the Wilson camp) that he would be interested in the Giants.

By firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett recently — and with GM Dave Gettleman on the way out — major changes are on the cards in New York.

I’m going to add three other teams into the mix.

Mike Tomlin has already stated he has little interest in trying to move forward with a rookie after Ben Roethlisberger retires. The Steelers appear primed to enter the market for a veteran signal caller.

The Broncos are also positioning themselves to make a move — likely coinciding with Vic Fangio’s departure as Head Coach, with an offensive minded replacement installed.

David Tepper, the Carolina owner, is desperate to find an answer at quarterback. If he misses out on Deshaun Watson — seemingly his top target — he could turn to Wilson.

So this is a somewhat realistic list of potential trade partners:

New Orleans
Philadelphia
New York Giants
Pittsburgh
Denver
Carolina

It’s plausible others could be added but I think we can rule out the Lions, Jets and Texans. I suspect Miami will either stand by Tua Tagovailoa or trade for Deshaun Watson.

Now let’s look at the draft stock in the first three rounds for each team on the list of potential suitors, as the draft order stands today:

New Orleans — #10, #42, #98, #99

Philadelphia — #12, #13, #17, #45, #76

New York Giants — #6, #7, #38, #69, #77

Pittsburgh — #18, #50, #82

Denver — #14, #48, #56, #79, #88

Carolina — #9

Right off the bat, we can rule out the Panthers. They simply don’t have the stock to make this happen and would need to be willing to trade players to prop up the limited 2022 returns.

Knowing the Seahawks as we do, they might be willing to tempt Seattle by dangling Christian McCaffrey and three first round picks. The problem is, Carolina would wipe out their resources for the next three years to build around Wilson. Plus McCaffrey has spent the last two years injured, so his value on the field would be difficult to justify based on the cap hits remaining on his contract.

With the Saints and Steelers, they too would only be able to offer modest returns in 2022. They would be expected to add their first round picks in 2023 and 2024 as part of any deal. They might be prepared to do that, as both teams are very much aiming to compete now. The Saints in particular could live through not having a first round pick until 2025 because they have a generally strong roster and have shown a degree of skill in manipulating their cap space.

For the Seahawks though, it’s not a very attractive prospect is it? They’d save cap space in 2022 but would need to replace Wilson. Neither the Saints or Steelers have a replacement quarterback to offer in return as a stop-gap. With Pittsburgh, the Seahawks would be getting only a pick in the second half of round one. New Orleans’ at #10 is more attractive but it’s nowhere near high enough to get at the limited pool of blue-chippers in this class.

This is why I think Sean Payton might fancy a change of scenery next year. It’s potentially easier for him to go to a team with a quarterback, than it is to acquire one for the Saints.

The Eagles and Giants are far better placed to make a move with their multiple high picks this year. With this looking like a down year in the draft, they can afford some short term pain without blowing up their resources until 2025. Swapping picks in 2022 for a big name quarterback carries some appeal.

However, there’s also something else to consider.

Philadelphia’s picks become less attractive with every passing week. They are winning football games and so are the Dolphins and Colts. Instead of having three selections in the top-10, those picks are currently #12, #13 and #17 (and rising).

This would still enable you to control the middle section of round one and you can make a case for players who might go in that range. Jordan Davis for example — or one of Trevor Penning, Bernhard Raimann or Abraham Lucas if they last that far.

Yet without the ability to draft a player with the potential to be a true game-changer, it’s hard to imagine trading away a franchise quarterback and not getting at least one elite-level prospect in return.

Sure, you might be able to pair picks #12 and #13 together and tempt one of the top-two to trade down. But why would the Lions or Texans want to take themselves out of range for Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson? Or Derek Stingley?

Having picks #12, #13 and #17 might be a nice thought but you’d be picking in what I’d describe as the worst section of the 2022 draft. You basically have a small group of top-level prospects then the players going between #8-50 might have very similar grades.

I hate to say it but the chances of landing another Germain Ifedi, L.J. Collier or Jordyn Brooks with those picks is realistic. What you really need is someone who gets on the field and makes an immediate impact. You need someone who can be top-five at his position. Think Nick Bosa or Quenton Nelson. Otherwise, why trade Wilson?

The Giants picks are a bit earlier in the first round (#6 and #7) and they could throw in an early second rounder (#38) and perhaps another pick in 2023. John Mara, the Giants owner, is under severe pressure to turn around his floundering franchise. A bold move for Russell Wilson would likely win round the fans, at least temporarily.

You still face similar problems though. Who are you taking at #6 and #7? The objective needs to be to get quality players, not simply address perceived needs.

An argument can’t be ‘just draft an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman’. If you whiff on these picks and Wilson enjoys a new lease of life in New York, it’ll be a disaster for Seattle.

Swapping Wilson for, say, Aidan Hutchinson and then one of Evan Neal or Trevor Penning, is an argument that carries some weight. You’d still need to find an answer at quarterback but you’d be, at that point, embracing a long, potentially painful rebuild. Two players of that caliber would be a good start.

Simply selecting from whatever’s left won’t cut it. A Wilson trade has to be the launch pad for a new era, not simply an opportunity to generate some fun chatter during the combine.

The rumoured/touted deal with Cleveland in 2018 would’ve given Seattle picks #1 and #4 in the draft. That’s the kind of return you’d need in this class to set yourself up in year one of a major rebuild. It’s hard to build a case for life after Wilson, if you can’t get anywhere near the top eligible players.

This is what ownership has to be aware of. Embracing a future without Wilson needs to be fully understood. Just as life without Pete Carroll would equally need to be studied and evaluated. Who’s out there? Who wants the job?

Having draft stock is fine but eventually those picks have to become quality players. Especially if you’re entering a world with no franchise quarterback on the roster.

They should already know what direction they’re going. These discussions should’ve already taken place. The next month should be about putting your ducks in a row, ready to act at the seasons end. Let’s hope this is the case.

Otherwise you end up making desperate, ill-timed moves. Such as the Jamal Adams trade.

That deal, which is a fireable offence in itself, could cost this team a higher pick than any they’ll get from a Wilson suitor.

And with it announced today that Adams will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, the whole debacle just gets worse and worse. A trade that looked horrible from the minute it was announced continues to dog this franchise.

This blog made a strong case for dealing Adams last off-season, even if it meant taking a severe hit in trade compensation. Seattle’s first error was to make the trade. The second was to double down — keeping Adams and then paying him a huge contract.

He ends the season with a 60.1 PFF grade.

Here’s his season breakdown:

Colts — 70.7
Titans — 63.6
Vikings — 63.6
49ers — 49.4
Rams — 36.6
Steelers — 62.4
Saints — 52.2
Jaguars — 75.2
Packers — 79.6
Cardinals — 44.5
Washington — 75.9
49ers — 28.9

Four good games.

It’ll cost the Seahawks $28.4m to move on in the off-season, per Over the Cap. Thankfully, the year after, a window opens to ship him out.

The Adams trade is the headline act of a disastrous rebuild since 2018. A win against San Francisco can’t mask that. Seattle’s ownership has to be ruthless, bold, ambitious and prepared for what is next. And it can’t be the status quo.

Edit —- since publishing this article, the following report has emerged.

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There are going to be two parts to this article. Firstly, I’m going to separate the 2022 draft prospects I have studied by grade. Then I’m going to analyse what this class means for the Seahawks and their potential future.

Grading the 2022 draft

These grades will change and adjust following the Senior Bowl and combine.

Here are some general thoughts on the class before I get started:

1. There is depth and value to be had in the middle rounds but I can’t recall a draft where there were so few obvious players deserving of a top-15 grade.

2. The Senior Bowl and combine is going to have a bigger impact than ever. With so little clarity on who deserves to be a first round pick this year, the week in Mobile and testing in Indianapolis will be a king maker.

3. We may see a record low number of players given legit first round grades. Expect this to be a draft where the player taken at #12 might have a similar grade to the player going at #50.

Legit top-10 picks (3)

Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)

These three players arguably would warrant a top-10 pick in most drafts. They combine college production with superb athleticism and upside.

Thibodeaux is long, quick and explosive off the edge. He’s a prototype — with seven sacks in 11 games this season barely telling the whole story of how dynamic he is. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ but appears capable of testing even better — combining balance, lean, change of direction and acceleration.

Hutchinson has been a terror for a long time at Michigan with a relentless, rounded game. He’s reportedly capable of a 4.07 short shuttle which would be elite-level agility for the position. He’s also managed a 36 inch vertical jump at Michigan and a 4.64 forty. He has 14 sacks for the season and will compete with Thibodeaux to be the first player taken.

Derek Stingley has battled injuries recently but he exploded onto the scene as a freshman during LSU’s Championship run. He has ideal size but his testing at SPARQ was remarkable. He ran a 4.30 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and achieved a sensational 142.74 overall score. Teams will want to dig deep on some perceived minor character concerns but he is a blue-chip talent at a premium position.

Likely first round prospects (7)

Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)

This group are a tier below the ‘big three’. In other drafts they might struggle to justify going in the top-15. However, due to the limited top-end talent in this draft, they could all find themselves elevated as high as the top-10.

Kyle Hamilton is a gliding, silky smooth safety. Despite being listed at 6-4 and 220lbs — he isn’t a thumper. He covers ground superbly, has better than expected range for his size and a nose for the football. Hamilton is reportedly capable of a 42 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump.

Jordan Davis is 6-6 and 340lbs but he will be one of the stars of the combine. He will run quicker than anyone expects and make headlines. He is a classic nose-tackle who absorbs blocks and controls the interior yet he’s equally capable of shooting gaps and impacting the passing game. He’s not as good as Vita Vea but he’s not miles behind.

Trevor Penning is an outstanding left tackle who doesn’t just pass and run block well — he’ll demolish you by judo-tossing you to the turf. Penning squats 625lbs and cleans 385lbs. He’s projected to run a 5.00 forty. He sets the tone up front and the only question mark will be the level of competition he faced at Northern Iowa.

Evan Neal plays left tackle for Alabama but he has a frame that looks ideally suited to guard. He’s incredibly strong and powerful at the POA but might have issues dealing with the speed rush at the next level. He can bench press 475lbs and squat 650lbs. There’s no reason not to try him at left tackle first — but he just looks tailor made to switch inside and be a terrific interior lineman.

Bernhard Raimann is originally from Austria. He has an ideal left tackle frame and all of the expected testing numbers for a high draft pick — 9-8 broad jump, 1.56 10-yard split, 450lbs bench press. Penning, Raimann and the next name on the list all delivered ‘wow’ moments on tape. They play with attitude and a high level of athleticism.

Abraham Lucas looks like the most athletic, agile and mobile right tackle to play in college football since Tyron Smith. It shouldn’t be a surprise — he ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ and a 5.03 forty. He can handle 1v1’s off the edge and looks like a candidate to switch over to left tackle.

David Ojabo has had a sensational season, combining with Aidan Hutchinson to help guide Michigan to the Big-10 title. He has great quickness off the edge, provides a solid counter when engaged and he can threaten with a great get-off and burst. The question throughout the process will be how much Ojabo and Hutchinson benefitted each other. For Ojabo — can he be ‘the guy’?

Potential top-40 picks (15)

Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
Daxton Hill (S, Michigan)
Jalen Catalon (S, Arkansas)
Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State)
Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
Jalen Wydermyer (TE, Texas A&M)
Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
DeMarvin Leal (DL, Texas A&M)
Bryan Cook (S, Cincinnati)
Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
Drake London (WR, USC)
Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)

This group will be a mix. Some of these players will be first rounders. Some will likely be available later and provide good value.

I was very close to including Logan Hall in the second tier. His ability to win with power or speed is exciting. There are series’ in games where he takes over. You can line him up inside and he can push lineman back into the pocket to disrupt the run or pass. He can kick outside and work off the edge. I really like him.

Daxton Hill has the potential to be special. He ran a 4.30 forty at SPARQ and a 4.13 short shuttle. He jumped a 44 inch vertical (!!!). His overall score was 143.76. His play is coming along — he had two interceptions and 4.5 TFL’s this season. He has star potential and just needs the right guidance.

Jalen Catalon has missed time with injury but when he was on the field for Arkansas he was a dynamic playmaker. He can play deep safety, he can come up to the LOS and make plays against the run. I can imagine him collecting picks at the next level. He plays a lot like Quandre Diggs.

Jameson Williams is the top receiver in this draft. Suddenness and quickness is king at the next level and he has that natural ability to separate downfield and stretch a defense, while also being able to create early separation on shorter routes. He has 1445 yards and 17 total touchdowns this year.

I’m torn on George Karlaftis. There are flashes on tape where he wins off the edge with great quickness and you see speed-to-power too. Yet he drifts in and out of games and his production is extremely average. He has only five sacks this season in 12 games. Yet he’s 6-4 and 275lbs, he can jump a 10-1 broad and a 37 inch vertical. He’s been timed running a 4.69. Those numbers get him into round one comfortably.

Tyler Linderbaum is a very good prospect — he’s just not as good as some of the people on the internet are suggesting. He’s not a top-10 pick and there are examples on tape where he can be knocked back by power and he’s undersized (approx 295lbs). Yet he’s extremely agile and has been timed running an outstanding 4.22 short shuttle. He’s also a top wrestler and even beat Tristan Wirfs in a key High-School match.

Jermaine Johnson transferred from Georgia to Florida State and looked every bit a NFL EDGE. He recorded 11.5 sacks, 17.5 TFL’s, 12 quarterback hurries and he returned a fumble for a touchdown. Length, a lean frame, get-off and speed.

Treylon Burks is a bit of a freak of nature. He has 10.75 inch hands. He’s a bigger receiver (6-3, 225lbs) but he plays smaller than that. He can burn-off defenders on downfield routes and he does a tremendous job tracking the football, contorting his body and making high-pointed catches. How he runs at the combine will determine how early he goes.

Jalen Wydermyer had a surprisingly quiet start to the season but then exploded to help Texas A&M defeat Alabama. He is very athletic and well sized, providing the kind of mismatches teams crave in the modern NFL. He can break the seam, get up on linebackers and safeties to exploit opportunities and he can be a red zone threat.

Trey McBride’s agility testing will determine how early he goes because everything on tape is superb. He loves to block and he’s good at it. He’s a YAC machine. He attacks the seam with long-striding acceleration but can also run corner routes and he challenges defenders with a competitive spirit when the ball’s in the air. He’s a sure-handed and reliable catcher even in traffic.

DeMarvin Leal is a player you want to love but end up only liking. He has 8.5 sacks this year and he has an intriguing physical profile. He’s 6-4 and 290lbs and plays inside/out. When he kicks inside he can be forceful and slip gaps to break into the backfield. But he’s inconsistent. You’re always left wanting more.

I loved watching Bryan Cook. He’s an animal. His hard hitting, great instincts and ability to play either as a big nickel or at strong safety make him a player to covet. Testing will be big for him but there’s a lot to like here, including his size (6-1, 210lbs).

Devin Lloyd is slightly undersized (235lbs) but that’s the modern game. His frame lacks definition and he could maybe add a bit of size without impacting his game. However — he is just a pure playmaker. Four interceptions, 22 TFL’s, eight sacks, six pass breakups. He’s had an incredible 2021 season.

Drake London has missed time through injury but when he was healthy, he made a real impression as a bigger receiver who can dominate defenders with his size and ball-tracking. He can jump a 38 inch vertical and played basketball as well as football at USC. If he runs well, he could be a first rounder. It won’t be a surprise if he lasts into round two and provides tremendous value for someone.

Jordan Davis has received a lot of attention at Georgia (and rightly so) but Devonte Wyatt is the forgotten man. He has 7.5 TFL’s in 12 games and is capable of running in the 4.8’s while jumping a 9-3 broad and a 31 inch vertical. He can shoot gaps but at 6-3 and 315lbs he can be on the field for any down/distance.

Potential second rounders (22)

Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
Ikem Ekonwu (G, NC State)
Charles Cross (T, Mississippi State)
Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Drake Jackson (DE, USC)
Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
Derrick Deese Jr (TE, San Jose State)
Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State)
Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
Rasheed Walker (T, Penn State)
Phidarian Mathis (DT, Alabama)
Kingsley Enagbare (DE, South Carolina)
Cameron Thomas (DE, San Diego State)
Brian Asamoah (LB, Oklahoma)
Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)

Some of these players, in my opinion, are overrated by draft media. They may well find their way into round one due to the class but their natural home would be day two. That’s the pre-combine grade I’ve given them.

Some highlights from this group…

— Carson Strong is the most talented quarterback in terms of mechanics, arm strength and general talent. However, there are serious concerns about a long-standing knee issue that has lingered since High School. Kenny Pickett has, reportedly, 8 1/4 inch hands. He throws in gloves. He’s a talented gunslinger and he showed at the weekend he’s more athletic than people realise. That hand size though. Desmond Ridder might end up providing the best combination of value and talent. He has delivered ‘wow’ throws this season, can create and extend plays with his legs and has elevated Cincinnati to a new level.

— You won’t see many draft analysts putting Dameon Pierce in round two. However, he has ideal size (5-10, 215-220lbs), he’s explosive (37 inch vertical) he can run (4.50 forty) and he is an absolute BAMF. The Seahawks badly need a tone-setter like this. Florida didn’t use him anywhere near enough. He won’t go this early but he’ll provide tremendous value later on for a smart team. Pierce is my RB2 behind only Zach Charbonnet — a complete running back who drives through contact, catches the ball nicely and is better in pass pro than any other back I’ve seen this year.

— Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are lower than most other website have them listed for one reason only — I need to see them run. I am not convinced either will run as well as some think. Anyone running slower than a 4.50 runs the risk of dropping down the board.

— Not enough people talk about Channing Tindall. He flies around the field, hits like a sledgehammer and has a big future in the NFL. Likewise Derrick Deese is a catching machine at San Diego State with good size. He doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention.

— A lot of people love Charles Cross and Ikem Ekonwu. I was a bit underwhelmed watching Cross. He looks the part but didn’t excite me. Eknowu might be playing tackle but he’s a pure guard. I like his physical playing style and like a lot of NC State linemen (OL and DL) he’ll test well. I just think this range suits him and he’s being elevated because people are struggling to fill out their mocks.

Potential third rounders (26)

Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
Matt Bedford (T, Indiana)
Greg Dulcich (TE, UCLA)
David Bell (WR, Purdue)
Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State)
Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
Brian Robinson (RB, Alabama)
Kenyon Green (G, Texas A&M)
Darian Kinnard (T, Kentucky)
Sean Rhyan (G, UCLA)
Matt Corrall (QB, Ole Miss)
Rachaad White (RB, Arizona State)
Jeremy Ruckert (TE, Ohio State)
Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
John Metchie (WR, Alabama)
Haskell Garrett (DT, Ohio State)
Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
Alex Forsyth (C, Oregon)
Jaquan Brisker (S, Penn State)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (T, Ohio State)
Christian Harris (LB, Alabama)
Roger McCreary (CB, Auburn)
Nate Landman (LB, Colorado)
Jerome Ford (RB, Cincinnati)
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)
Josh Vann (WR, South Carolina)

This is a group mixed with some of the more overrated members of this draft class and a collection of players where testing will have a big influence on their stock.

Some highlights from this group…

— Kaair Elam and Kenyon Green are regularly mocked early in round one but I just don’t see it. Elam takes too many chances and looks more of a great athlete than a competent cornerback. With Green, I feel like I’m watching a different player to everyone else. At right guard he was… fine. But not at the level Damien Lewis showed at LSU. Some people are projecting him in the top-10 and that is mind-blowing to me. He’s not a dominant physical talent, he doesn’t have great feet or agility.

— Matt Bedford played right tackle for Indiana and I think he’s very much a player to keep an eye on. People project him to guard but I think he has the footwork, length and agility to make it work at tackle. Greg Dulcich is a highly talented tight end with major upside.

— One or two big names fall into this range due to physical issues. Brian Robinson at Alabama is high-cut in his frame. Roger McCreary has short arms. There are question marks about Josh Vann’s speed. All of the tight ends are good players but they have to show they can test well in the key areas (agility — short shuttle, three cone).

— Matt Corrall is a difficult one for me. He’s 6-0 and 200lbs and playing in a spread system that makes life as easy as possible for him. He does flash arm talent but his mistakes, when they happen, are glaring. I fear he’ll end up like a lot of the old Oklahoma State quarterbacks — hyped up in college, nondescript at the next level.

What does all this mean for the Seahawks?

There are three scenarios — a future with or without Russell Wilson, plus a situation where Wilson is replaced with a big name veteran.

The future with Wilson makes a lot of this article moot, short of finding value later on. They won’t acquire extra first round stock without making a different big trade (eg — D.K. Metcalf). They would have some money to spend but a lot of holes to fill — including both tackle spots.

It’s impossible to justify Bobby Wagner’s $20m salary in 2022. They should make a difficult but necessary decision to shift that investment to the lines — making a big push for someone such as Terron Armstead or a proven quality pass rusher.

If you’re going to spend a first round pick in 2020 on a player who played middle linebacker in college, you might as well start him there and add a cheaper WILL.

Such a scenario would likely see big changes in terms of coaching and possibly the front office. I recently wrote that this would be a model similar to the one devised by Green Bay when they moved on from Mike McCarthy. Or perhaps the Seahawks could make a bold move to pair Wilson with Sean Payton— only in Seattle, rather than New Orleans.

The second scenario is Wilson departs via trade and the Seahawks acquire major draft stock — potentially two top-10 picks and another high pick in 2023 from one of the Giants or Eagles.

If they went down this road, it would be a ground-zero rebuild. You might as well see what else you can get for players such as Metcalf. Paying a receiver between $20-30m a year might be viable given the reduced cost at other positions (particularly quarterback) but it’d arguably be a waste of money if you spend the next three years chasing your tail looking for a new QB.

In this situation, it’s tempting to want to fix every problem immediately. That’s not possible. There should be a plan formed to work on specific areas year-by-year — meshing what is available in the draft with priority planning.

The first priority should be to improve the trenches. That would be possible here.

One option would be to hope to be in a position to draft Evan Neal early, either to play left tackle or, his better position in my opinion, left guard. I don’t think Tyler Linderbaum is going to go as early as many people think. You could, potentially, trade back into the late first using your second rounder to select him.

That could create a situation where you have a young interior core and a foundation to build from. Perhaps Duane Brown could be retained to offer veteran leadership, with your other first rounder used on one of these impressive tackles (Trevor Penning, Bernhard Raimann or Abraham Lucas — although Penning could easily be the first lineman off the board).

That would establish an offensive line that is highly athletic, tough and plays with a brutality the Seahawks currently lack. Add a good running back in the middle rounds (Charbonnet? Pierce?) and you’d be creating the foundation to run the ball with greater consistency, if nothing else.

The thing is, I get the sense the current Seahawks regime prefer veteran linemen. They’ve certainly moved towards that in recent years. Installing three rookies into your O-line could be a recipe for disaster and could impact future careers if rookie seasons leave scars.

If there was an opportunity to select either Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aidan Hutchinson it should be taken. You could even build a case for trading up for one of them. Yet as they’re likely the #1 and #2 picks — they probably won’t be in reach, given the Lions and Texans (two places Wilson won’t go anywhere near) are slated to ‘earn’ the first two picks.

If the focus was to go D-line early, there are options beyond these two. Jordan Davis could anchor the line but the Seahawks have traditionally gone cheap up front (and had a degree of success adding bigger defensive tackles at a tiny cost). Logan Hall is an incredibly exciting player. David Ojabo playing across from Darrell Taylor would challenge opposing tackles.

You could also mix and match. A first rounder on both lines, complemented by some bold free agent moves with the extra cap space created. Either way — fix the trenches and deliver a consistent running game. That’s your starting point.

This would be a similar situation to the one in New England. They spent brilliantly in free agency, splashing out on Matt Judon who has 11.5 sacks. They’ve done a good job complementing draft picks with veteran additions. They also found a quarterback they can build around. Of course, things are always easier when you have Bill Belichick, ably supported by Josh McDaniels.

The final scenario would see the Seahawks trade Wilson and replace him with another veteran. Jason La Canfora speculated Seattle might have interest in Aaron Rodgers, due to John Schneider’s connections in Green Bay. It’s fanciful but an option.

Rodgers clearly remains a genius on the field and shows no signs of slowing down. However, his price tag would likely match Wilson’s. He’s just turned 38, so it’s an extreme short-term move.

That said, you could still move Wagner to create cap space to shift investment to your lines. And Rodgers would likely enjoy throwing to the weapons in Seattle.

If Pete Carroll departs — I still think he will after this season — and Schneider picks, say, Nathaniel Hackett the Green Bay offensive coordinator to replace him — that could set the table for a wild quarterback double deal, where Wilson is dealt to someone like the Saints, Giants, Eagles or Broncos before the Seahawks strike a deal with the Packers.

There’s a lot to digest here and we’ll flesh out these scenarios more in the coming weeks. The only certainty, though, is we’re less than a month away from the end of the season. And that’s when change of some form will occur and a new era of Seahawks football — one way or another — will begin.

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Join Rob & Robbie now to have a good laugh at the 49ers…

Hi all — I am working on BBC national radio again tonight for Pittsburgh vs Baltimore so won’t be able to dedicate my time to the Niners game. There will still be a post-game live stream but there won’t be an immediate ‘instant reaction’ blog post.

Note: This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle is tortuously grinding to an undignified end. The Seahawks sit at 3-8 and all proclamations – from the head coach down to the players – about competing and winning are ringing hollow. The NFL is a results-driven business and they have failed to deliver results.

How badly? It is Week Thirteen and the team has one win at home. The last time anything like this happened? 1992, when they beat Denver on…Week Thirteen. Everyone knows that season as the one the team bottomed out with a franchise-worst 2-14 record.

To make matters worse, just like last week, the Seahawks are facing a foe that is riding a three-game winning streak of impressive performances.

San Francisco has been playing extremely clean and effective football in wins over the Rams, Jaguars and Vikings in their last three games. A quick look at the reasons behind their success:

Those are fantastic numbers and they spell real trouble for the time-of-possession challenged Seahawks. In order to succeed, they will need to find a way to break the patterns they find themselves in.

How can the Seahawks deliver a win and begin to build some momentum in order to close the season with at least some positivity? We’ll have a look in this week’s watch points.

Note: Several themes are culled from Week Four’s post against the Niners, which is fitting since the Seahawks are still struggling with many of the same issues raised.

Curtis Allen’s week four watch points (vs 49ers)

Do not allow easy yards on defense

One of the real keys to the Niners’ success in the last three games is they are limiting Jimmy Garoppolo’s exposure. In those three games, he only has 67 passes thrown, or an average of 22 passes per game. That is his sweet spot, as he cannot carry this offense effectively. In that same stretch he only has one interception, and only five passes defended. He also gets good support from his team, from Kyle Shanahan coaching easy throws into the offense and his receivers being among the league leaders in fewest passes dropped.

I wrote this in Week Four:

At this point in his NFL career, the die has been cast with Garoppolo. He is a good quarterback but not a great one. He can work with a system but elevating his team with his play is beyond his capability.

San Francisco has acknowledged this by mortgaging the future to get Trey Lance in the draft.

In the meantime, Shanahan has to work with Garoppolo much in the same manner that Sean McVay had to with Jared Goff. Plan an offense around him that does not ask too much of him, with many short passes that do not require pinpoint accuracy and decision-making.

You will get a few different things — some wildly creative runs set up by motion, a few quick throws behind the line of scrimmage to the playmaking wide receivers and screen pass after screen pass. Shanahan only asks Jimmy to throw past the sticks about 5-7 times per game because he is not accurate and is prone to turnovers, particularly when pressured.

They must force more of the offensive weight onto Garoppolo by minimizing the run and yards after the catch in the passing game.

A primary target for the Seahawk defense will be Elijah Mitchell.

The sixth-round rookie missed the Week Four matchup but has been a revelation this season for the Niners. In the last two games he has 54 runs for 224 yards, eleven first downs and a touchdown. He has supplemented those numbers with five catches for 35 yards, a first down and a touchdown.

He currently sits fourth in the NFL among running backs with at least 100 rushes with 2.4 yards per carry after contact and he has eleven broken tackles.

Deebo Samuel has also been extremely effective in the run game, with a sparkling performance against the Vikings with six runs for 66 yards and two touchdowns. It appears a groin injury will keep him out of Sunday’s game. That is a huge loss for the Niner offense, and the Seahawks will need to take advantage of his absence.

One way the Seahawks can be effective against Garoppolo? Flooding coverage behind the line of scrimmage.

Garoppolo’s numbers against the blitz are sparkling this season:

Every meaningful stat tells us the Seahawks are better off just rushing with the front four (no matter how bad that sounds) and deploying seek-and-destroy weapons like Ryan Neal and Jamal Adams to minimize runs and keep the run and quick misdirection-style passing game in check.

For all of this to work though, the team absolutely must be resolved to playing tough, committed defense.

Plays like this must be avoided at all costs:

🙌 @TreyLance09 finds @19problemz for his 2nd TD of the day.

📺 @NFLonFOX#SEAvsSF pic.twitter.com/aQIbB5VTz7

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 3, 2021

Watch George Kittle. He acquires Quandre Diggs like a heat-seeking missile and drives him from the three-yard line about seven yards deep into the end zone.

Mohamed Sanu on Ugo Amadi. Kyle Juszczyk on D.J.Reed. All those blocks are well-executed, and there is only one defender that is completely free to make a play…

Bobby Wagner.

Look at this screen grab here:

As Samuel is crossing the 11-yard line, Bobby has correctly diagnosed the play. He is advancing from the 2-yard line to intercept.

What are the chances Bobby makes that tackle and keeps Deebo out of the end zone?

From Wagner’s rookie year up until 2018, 99.99%. Bet the house.

In 2019-2020? 75%. Very solid bet.

This year? The number is dipping fast.

Bobby’s attempt here is so uncharacteristic it is shocking. You expect him to lay the wood on this play – Samuel is perfectly lined up and Wagner has all the room in the world to wind up and lower his shoulder and punish him for daring to run into his area, let alone try to score a touchdown.

Instead, he appears to jog in, goes for his feet, and Samuel powers right through and fights into the end zone. The lack of emotion displayed after missing a tackle so badly, again, is strangely uncharacteristic.

I do not know what the issue is. Fatigue, an undisclosed injury, some lack of motivation due to their dreadful season, or something else. Maybe he is anticipating Ugo Amadi comes off that Sanu block better and eases up in pursuit?

But it is emblematic of the defense we have been seeing lately. To have a chance at success, they must tackle with more effort and keep the Niners from protecting their glaring weakness at quarterback.

Give Russell Wilson some assistance

The offensive line this year has been challenged to keep Russell Wilson clean. Facing a tough San Francisco pass rush provides a serious roadblock to throwing the ball and moving it effectively.

We all saw that happen in Week Four. Here are the game highlights:

Wilson was sacked three times and chased from the pocket by the pass rush several times in the first half alone. While he will occasionally escape the onslaught and make a breathtaking play (7:20), the Seahawks would be wise to devise some plays to help him be not so much of a sitting duck in the pocket.

When they got a slick little leak-screen play to Collins (4:26) the offense got going. They then let Russell roll out and give him time to assess his options and then run for a first down (5:26).

And Russell’s ‘fine I’ll do it myself’ touchdown run was a thing of beauty (6:30).

As I wrote last week, getting Russell’s legs and some adrenaline involved early in the game can only benefit the Seahawks. It can open up all kinds of options.

One of those options is play-action passes. Have a look at NextGen Stats’ analysis on Russell’s play-action success against the Niners in Week Four.

Is play-action success predicated on first ‘establishing the run’ as Pete Carroll often alludes to? No it is not:

The play-action pass is the best play in football

If the Seahawks insist on rolling out an offense that continually puts Russell Wilson in harm’s way and makes him the only option for success as a team, they are dooming themselves to repeat this cycle they seem locked in.

Another way to help Wilson out is by running the ball more effectively than they have been.

Attack the middle of the defense

This is another callback from Week Four’s watch points:

San Francisco has a defense that makes excellent use of their top players. They are creative and are schemed so well they appear to have twelve players on the field at times. They can simultaneously blitz and have deep support. They can rely on their front four to cause problems for the quarterback and flood coverage to clog the throwing lanes. They have options and a creative defensive coordinator.

However, there is a demonstrated spot in this defense that can and has been exploited so far in 2021 — right up the gut. And the Seahawks are well positioned to attack it.

The Seahawks had some success rushing inside on the Niners in Week Four:

.@Budda03 flips in to the end zone for SIX! 🙌

📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX pic.twitter.com/DdHKJFLxut

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 3, 2021

They should have some opportunities to build on that with word that linebacker star Fred Warner is out and Dre Greenlaw in serious doubt to play Sunday.

The team must be able to exploit these missing players. Kyle Fuller was the center for that game, as Ethan Pocic was still recovering from injury. He has been a slight upgrade, and a good game from him would be a godsend this week. Hopefully Damien Lewis can return this week at Left Guard, and the Seahawks can open some holes for the runners to get to the second level and take advantage of the backups playing.

Get D.K. Metcalf on track

The Seahawks have tied themselves in knots with Metcalf.

Clearly, not getting the ball to your rising superstar until the fourth quarter – as they did last week against Washington – is unacceptable. Pete Carroll has no answers. He says they had ‘looks’ for him but they were not advantageous.

The problem here is that he is clearly a talented player and able to change the face of how the defense plays the rest of the game. Yet by waiting until late in the game to start targeting him, they both frustrate the player and could disrupt their rhythm by forcing throws his way that may not be there.

As well, by forcing a throw to Metcalf after ignoring him for the bulk of the game, they telegraph their intentions and open themselves up for real trouble:

RAMS PICK-SIX RUSS ‼️

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/hk6yhmAbaW

— ESPN (@espn) January 9, 2021

To avoid all this, they need to get Metcalf involved early and often.

Look at some of the highlights from Week Four:

At 4:40, we see the Seahawks lined up on third and 1. Metcalf gives Emmanuel Moseley a little jam as if he is run-blocking and then takes off on a simple crossing route, leaving Moseley in the dust for an easy-as-pie Russell Wilson throw for a nice gain.

The next play at 4:50, Metcalf is lined up in the slot over a linebacker. Wilson wipes the drool off his mouth, lets Metcalf shimmy him out of position and then power over Jimmy Ward for a touchdown. The Seahawks absolutely need to move Metcalf into the slot more often to find these kinds of mismatches.

At 6:16, they set up a simple screen play, bring Duane Brown out to lead the way and Metcalf has a nice gain. Moseley diagnoses the play and breaks on it and smartly tries to tackle Metcalf low but misses.

All of these plays are makeable for the Seahawks, especially early in the game. They just cannot treat Metcalf like any other player on the roster. If he gets going early, the defense is forced to adjust and that opens up all kinds of options, even in the run game.

Of course, not all of this is on quarterback or the offensive playcaller. Metcalf needs to establish himself as a stone-lock reliable target. That includes fighting for contested balls. See 5:38 in the video. Wilson slightly underthrows Metcalf but that is a catchable ball. Moseley knocks it away to kill a drive.

Contested balls are currently Metcalf’s kryptonite. He needs to come down with more of those to truly take the next step in his ascension.

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Robust debate is always best

It was brought to my attention this week that I was called an arse hole by Nathan Ernst during an episode of ‘Real Hawk Talk‘. The two people co-hosting appeared to agree.

My crime, at least in this instance, was to post a YouTube video revealing what I thought was a lack of effort from Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner on a handful of plays, while highlighting their combined average salaries are $35.5m a year.

Not being one to let a barb like that lie, I felt obliged to write a response.

Firstly, I’ve disagreed plenty of times with the Hawkblogger crew. I’ve said as much on some streams or comments — or I’ve tweeted them directly (especially Brian). I like to think it’s always presented as argument vs argument — even if some of those challenges are robust. I always think you’re better off just cutting to the chase — although I’ll happily admit that striking the right tone in 220 characters is not a strong point for me and I’m a better ‘debater’ as a talker.

Ernst used a slightly different debating tactic here, opting for the two-word (rather than one-fingered) salute. He justified it by suggesting it was outrageous to question effort (seemingly ever) because these players play a particularly physical sport professionally. He ended by telling me to ‘shut the hell up’.

So in the case of Wagner — if a player has an excellent career, good enough to earn a deal worth $17-20m on the cap — you’re never allowed to question their effort on certain plays simply because of the sport they are playing? Even if what you see on tape points you in that direction?

It’s basically putting a shield around the players.

The thing is — let’s say I’d simply used the word ‘performance’ instead of ‘effort’ in the video. If I’d said — ‘is this performance good enough?’ and then shown the clips, does it really make any difference? The evidence implies a lack of effort. That would be the conclusion you’d come to watching the plays.

I don’t think this is a taboo subject. You can both admire the warrior-like achievements of players and then question whether their effort matches their salary down the line.

I don’t watch all-22 tape very often. I did go back and watch Wagner in particular for multiple games and I noticed a trend that he was hesitant on plays. He seemed to be avoiding contact a lot more than I expected to see.

He was not playing with urgency. There’s one play against Jacksonville for example, which isn’t in the video, where he’s reading a bootleg, sees it’s a carry to the opposite side (no PA). He’s peaking at the ball carrier. There’s a lineman who peels to the second level to make a block. Wagner can still see a clear route to the ball-carrier yet he just stands there. You watch it and think, what’s the thought process here?

Here’s one from the last game. Is it wrong to expect a bit more from a player earning $17,150,000?

#WashingtonFootball

Run game vs. SEA — Production on perimeter/edge schemes.

Antonio Gibson — 111 yards rushing (146 total yards). @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/2LzbTKE9O2

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) November 30, 2021

I don’t think Wagner is a bad player. I do think his play has regressed, I think there are increasing instances on tape where he avoids contact (for whatever reason) and I don’t think you can justify — in any way, shape or form — his 2022 cap hit of $20m.

I also know there are people who understand football a lot more than I do who feel the same way.

No name-calling from me in response. I’ve have had two members of that show on my streams. We’ve not always agreed on everything but we’ve been able to have mature, detailed discussions which, in my opinion, were as good as any Seahawks content available on the internet.

Robust debate may just get us all through the difficult next few months (or it’ll make us all hate each other, one or the other).

Thoughts on two 2022 pass rushers

In the continued search to find out more about the upcoming draft class, I spent time today studying South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare and San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas.

Enagbare reminds me of a bigger Yannick Ngakoue. He runs the same move — engaging with his hands, hopping to the side then thrashing out a chop/swim to disengage.

There is a size difference. Enagbare is listed at 265lbs and Ngakoue was 252lbs at his combine. Their body types are different and it’s not a physical comparison. It’s more how they play.

Enagbare doesn’t have top-end speed off the edge but neither did Ngakoue (4.75 forty, 4.50 short shuttle). What he does have is great hand use. He can dip and rip to win at the edge. He uses the push/pull effectively. He times inside moves nicely and he knows how to create pressure and keep himself clean by using his hands.

That alone should earn him a chance to succeed in the NFL. It’s just whether he has enough speed to really challenge NFL blockers.

His speed/power move lacks polish and he often gets tied up in the block. His production is modest — 4.5 sacks in 12 games and seven TFL’s. It’ll be interesting to see how he tests.

I didn’t see a player worthy of some of the top grades people are offering online but that’s starting to feel like the norm with this class. Enagbare is another player who appears destined to be the type of player you’d love to take a chance on during day two but without great testing, it’ll be difficult to bang the table for him any earlier. Lots of potential — but someone you perhaps will ‘like’ not ‘love’.

Cameron Thomas does have the big production this year (20 TFL’s, 10.5 sacks). He’s 6-5 and 270lbs and he does a terrific job when he lines up inside or delivers a stunt. He has a great swim move and shows good hand usage.

He’s incredibly powerful and seems to understand leverage. He has a knack of having bursts of splash plays. In one game I watched, he basically ended the first two drives single-handed by bossing his way into the backfield by combining technical quality with his hands and using speed to finish when the opening emerged.

The one question I have is whether he has a speed rush off the edge. It doesn’t look like he has the club in the bag. That’s the thing that stops you falling for him. His power inside and technical skill are great points — but he’s too small to make a permanent switch to tackle, I’m not sold on him being a 5-tech and he’s going to line up as a power end who reduces inside sometimes.

To pitch him in round one you’d need to see that burst — that raw speed. And it never really comes. There’s a lot to like with Thomas and his production is really impressive in 2021. The difference between him being a day two pick and a first will be testing.

A quick note on the Blazers firing their GM

I wouldn’t read too much into Vulcan Sports making a big call in Portland. There may be similarities between the Blazers and Seahawks but there are also big differences.

I will say this though. Increasingly it feels, to me at least, like there’s some clarity on what is developing here…

1. I think this will be Pete Carroll’s last year. I don’t see him launching what could be a long rebuild, especially given the 2017 reports that he was considering retirement even before the previous reset. I think this will be his final season and despite everything going on now, he will depart a hero.

2. I think if John Schneider stays, he will be of the mind to trade Russell Wilson for picks. I think the aim will be to acquire a young ‘stop-gap’ quarterback in return, as a new search is launched for a long term answer. Yet I also think the Seahawks will ‘be in on any conversation’ for the other veteran quarterbacks available — namely Aaron Rodgers (who, according to Jason La Canfora, has a connection to Schneider due to the Green Bay links). Schneider only signed a new deal last off-season so unless he prefers a change of scenery, ownership might prefer to defer to him as they embark on a post-Carroll era.

3. It’ll be up to Jody Allen and co to decide whether they want to fall in behind Wilson and move on from both Carroll and Schneider (Wilson may prefer a fresh start anyway, making this a moot point). I think the Saints are going to find it difficult to jump into the veteran QB market this off-season and that might nudge Sean Payton to another club — as has been rumoured in the recent past on more than one occasion. A bold move like that could satisfy Wilson and the fan base — and it’s the kind of move you could imagine Paul Allen making — but admittedly it seems overly ambitious today.

4. If Wilson does depart — the Giants and Eagles seem like obvious destinations given their haul of picks in 2022 and the ability to throw in a young quarterback. The only problem is — neither are in range to offer a top-two pick to get one of the elite DE’s and it could mean you’re picking twice among a pool of players similar to the top-end of the 2013 draft (if not worse). You could always trade both picks to move up for Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aidan Hutchinson — but that would be a big move.

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I don’t like that we’re having to break down quarterback tape again but here we are. With the increasing possibility that this team is going to make major changes in the off-season, we’re duty bound to at least look at what’s out there.

Today it’s Desmond Ridder’s turn to get an extended review.

Firstly, he has great velocity on his throws. When he needs to let it rip he does so effectively. He generates power by planting his feet to drive the football into tight windows and into the right areas on an intermediate and deep range.

Of all the quarterbacks in this class, Ridder makes the prettiest throws to chop up and make into a highlights video. Carson Strong has some ‘wow’ moments too — but Ridder is the one who makes completions that raise an eyebrow. He reads a defense well, throws with anticipation, velocity and placement and if you’re looking for special qualities in that regard — he can be exciting at times.

He had two throws against Notre Dame — one to the left sideline and one right down the seam — that were just perfect. Possibly the two best passes I’ve seen this season.

One area where Ridder really stands out is mobility and movement to extend plays. His footwork is superb. He takes smaller steps but is springy in his footwork, enabling him to glide side-to-side while keeping his eyes downfield. He will keep two hands on the ball and he’s reading the field looking for openings while he’s on the move.

There are various examples on tape where he side-steps to the right, back-pedals to the left, moves back to the right and then throws with accuracy and velocity. He had a tremendous play like this against Eastern Michigan recently from deep inside his own half. He is very difficult to contain, he buys himself time and then he can punish opponents with his arm.

His running ability is an asset. He is a good athlete and can be useful on draws and scrambles. He has a blast of acceleration which is unexpected and he can turn up field to make good gains. You can easily imagine him making some frustrating 3rd and 8 conversions simply by breaking contain and getting just enough with his legs.

I do worry a little bit about his frame. He’s listed at 6-4 and 215lbs but he’s quite lean. I’m not sure how he would take to being hit regularly at the next level, so that may limit his usefulness as a runner. Yet I think it’s a positive and he has the ability to take what is given on the ground.

Ridder does an excellent job attacking the middle of the field. The way he throws to tight ends running the seam is impressive. He’s adept at standing in the pocket and throwing with anticipation to his bigger targets.

There are technical flaws. Unlike Strong, he doesn’t always align his feet and shoulders to the direction the football’s being thrown. When he throws to the left his body can be positioned facing to the right. It means when he uncorks to throw, he has to take a long stride with his left leg, coming across his body to plant and throw. This is wasted motion. At the next level those split seconds can be the difference between a deflection or a sack/fumble. It can be the difference between an open receiver being closed down, or a defensive back reading your body language to anticipate the throw.

Ridder spent considerable time last summer — in his words — to make the lower half of his body work with his upper half. There are still some issues to work through here and it does impact his accuracy. Sometimes these habits are fixable. Sometimes you are what you are and my concern with Ridder is his natural throwing technique will mean that while he’s very capable of sensational, eye-catching throws — he’s also going to have plenty of ‘WTF’ high throws and misses.

You see a steady stream of this on tape. He will throw high when stepping up into the pocket and put too much into a pass. Even on little easy dump-off’s or WR screens he will miss high. It’s frustrating to watch at times and you end up having to consider the two contrasting sides of his game. The beautiful, highlight-reel passes and the absolutely maddening easy misses.

He also has a moderate turnover problem. He’s thrown 28 interceptions in four years at Cincinnati. It’s an average of seven per season. It’s not a major problem but it’s been a consistent feature in his career. You’d like to see gradual improvement where the touchdown numbers rise and the interception numbers come down. For Ridder — he kind of is what he is.

Some of those turnovers are careless, too. He had one against Navy this year where he totally misread the coverage and threw it straight to a defensive back, as if he was the target. In the same game, he almost floated a pass right into the hands of a defender on his own 10-yard for what would’ve been an easy pick-six. The linebacker dropped the pass.

He was pressured early against Indiana this year and started throwing off his back-foot. One throw was off-target, tipped and picked. Another was way off-target and could easily have been another interception.

When you watch him play, I’d say about 20% of his throws every game are inaccurate and frustrating. Another 10-20% are exciting and highly impressive. So this is what you’re ultimately going to get. Someone who is capable of maddening play and sheer brilliance over the course of 60 minutes.

He’s a good athlete with a strong arm. He will take chances, have misses and make errors. Ridder’s effective as a runner.

We have to acknowledge how he has elevated Cincinnati to a new level. You want to see that in college. They’ve been good for some time but in 2021 they’re in the playoff hunt and that needs to be highlighted as a positive. He set a school record for touchdown passes and we’re talking about 136 years of Cincinnati football here. So he has achieved a lot in college. His team are 43-6 in his four years and won Bowl games against Virginia Tech and Boston College. They should’ve beaten Georgia in the Peach Bowl last season.

I don’t rate him as highly as Kellen Mond a year ago and he went in round three. I think that is a fair range for Ridder too — maybe even round four. However, I would rather take a chance on him in the middle rounds, put him with a good coordinator and QB coach and try to develop him — than spend a first round pick reaching for one of the other quarterbacks in this class.

There’s something to work with. The upside and potential is clear. There are technical and accuracy issues that need work to make the most of what he does well.

He’s an intriguing prospect. The Senior Bowl is often a king-maker at the position and Ridder has accepted an invitation to Mobile. A strong week could deliver a major boost to his stock.

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1. It’s not just a limited quarterback draft

Opinions on the 2022 class are all over the place.

I’m not for a second trying to suggest that I know everything or am better than other people when it comes to analysing the draft. I’m well aware I’m just a bloke from Rotherham who watches a lot of college football.

However, I think some of the analysis we’re seeing on the internet is, frankly, quite poor this year.

I don’t envy the people who have to write about the draft for a living. They are in an awful position. It’s really, really hard to find legit first round prospects who are eligible. As a consequence we’re seeing a lot of undeserved elevation and a lot of reaching.

I won’t name names but let me use one example. Today I looked at a 2022 NFL mock draft from a national website. Included in the top-15 were:

Matt Corrall
Ikem Ekwonu
Evan Neal
Kenyon Green
Nakobe Dean
Kenny Pickett
Carson Strong

I have not seen any evidence that these players warrant a placing in this range. That is particularly the case for the three quarterbacks, Ikem Ekonwu and Kenyon Green. The one who might justify it is Evan Neal but he has a guard body, appears much more suited to operating inside and I’m not convinced he’s a left tackle at the next level.

It’s just a lousy draft class at the top end. People are trying to slot prospects into their mocks. The class is going to be influenced more than ever by combine testing, with teams taking their chances on upside because the legit, blue-chip talent pool is limited.

Take Auburn cornerback Roger McCreary for example. He’s a good football player. Yet he has sub-30 inch arms and he has good and bad moments on tape (see: John Metchie shaking him off for the game-winning score at the weekend).

On Saturday, one well-known draft pundit declared on Twitter that he was a ‘top-20 lock’, only to be informed by a former NFL scout (who may or may not be Mobile based these days) that he hadn’t spoken to any team that had anything higher than a second-round grade on McCreary.

Everyone is desperate to find ‘guys’ in a 2022 draft class that has depth beyond round one but has massive question marks for the first frame.

I’ve studied this class in detail and for me, these are the following players you can build an argument for at the top of round one:

Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE)
Aidan Hutchinson (DE)
Derek Stingley (CB)
Kyle Hamilton (S)

At the moment, that’s it. There are other players I really like, such as Georgia’s Jordan Davis. Can you justify taking a two-down nose with, say, the fifth overall pick?

Someone suggested to me yesterday that it’s a good draft for defensive linemen, as part of an argument ‘for’ trading Russell Wilson. Again, this isn’t exactly the case. The mock drafts might be stacked with names but I don’t think these mocks are a true reflection of the class.

As I wrote on Sunday — I think if you’re picking outside of the top-two, you’re probably not getting Thibodeaux and Hutchinson. They are the two potential game-wrecking defensive linemen in this class. I don’t see anyone else who can knock them out of the top two.

The best tackle prospects I’ve seen so far are Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning, Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann and Washington State’s Abraham Lucas. I’d be fully prepared to grade all three in the top-50. Could I make a legit argument for saying they belong in the top-10? Maybe if they test well. Right now, I can’t say it with any conviction.

So let’s imagine a scenario where the Seahawks trade Wilson to the Giants for their two top-10 picks. Are you getting a game-wrecking D-lineman or a left tackle of the future at #6 or #7? I don’t think you are. You need those picks to be higher — or in a different draft entirely.

This is why I think a full knowledge of what this draft class truly offers is imperative to have a proper discussion about the future of this team.

If you could guarantee Hutchinson and a top left tackle — I think it’s a conversation worth having. Or even Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. The Seahawks desperately need to improve their trenches. If sacrificing Wilson enables them to do that — I don’t think it’s a conversation to be dismissed, even if it’s not my personal preference.

I don’t think people realise how early Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are going to go. They’re the top-two. And the next group of George Karlaftis, Jermaine Johnson and David Ojabo might have intriguing skills — but they are not top-10 picks.

If you trade away Wilson, you have to come away with blue-chip players. At the very least you have to emulate the double-dip of Russell Okung and Earl Thomas. As someone who has studied this draft class more than most — I’m telling you, this is going to be the weakest first round in a long, long time. And if you want those blue-chip players, you better find your way into the top two or three picks.

The irony is — Seattle’s own pick might’ve got them into that range. Yet they traded it to the Jets for Jamal Adams.

2. The truth about the 2022 quarterback class

The discourse around the draft eligible QB’s is similarly all over the place. I have studied all of the big names in great detail. I appreciate teams are going to reach and there’s a chance more than one player will go in round one. However, I want to re-iterate what I believe to be the truth about this class…

— No player deserves a first round grade.

— Carson Strong is the clear #1 quarterback within the group. However, there are very serious concerns about the health of one of his knees. So much so, it has been speculated he might need a cadaver knee replacement that would end his rookie season before it begins. One other theory is that it might be a bone-on-bone situation, limiting his career. He could of course be perfectly fine. This is the talk doing the rounds though and teams will study his medicals thoroughly. He has fantastic arm talent, he’s accurate and has a quick release but he’s also a statue in the pocket and has no ability to move to extend plays or avoid pressure.

— Kenny Pickett is the clear #2 quarterback. However, he reportedly has incredibly small hands. The talk is that his hand size could be nearer to eight inches than nine — and nine is usually the cut-off for NFL quarterbacks. This is probably why he plays in gloves. So while his 2022 season has been a roaring success — teams will have to contend with what this means for his next level potential.

— Matt Corrall plays in a Lane Kiffin offense that does the heavy lifting. It’s a system that demands very little other than one-read from the quarterback. Corrall is also 6-0 and 200lbs. I cannot project him to the next level.

— Sam Howell is extremely average and Malik Willis isn’t very good.

If three of these players go in round one, all power to the teams making the call. I can’t get behind that thought process.

Short of Strong getting a clean bill of health on the knee, I would rather wait until the mid-rounds for Desmond Ridder. Frankly, Ridder has as much chance as any of the names above. He has completed some ‘wow’ passes this year and elevated Cincinnati onto the national stage. He is far from perfect but the consensus seems to be he will be available much later than the names above.

Any of these players will likely need a year to learn the ropes, meaning you’re relying on a stop-gap veteran.

It’s a shame we have to have these conversations — yet increasingly it feels like QB talk is going to be a thing again within Seahawks fandom.

I think the person running your offense has never been more important. I think we’re seeing that with the jumbled mess that has become the Carroll/Waldron hybrid. We’re also seeing it in the way certain QB’s are being developed.

If this team wanted Carson Strong, for example, they have to go and get the offensive play-caller and schemer to fit his skill-set. That would be Josh McDaniels for me.

Kenny Pickett is more suited to a play caller who is willing to use quarterback mobility, movement in the pocket and bootlegs/play-action.

Matt Corrall likely needs a system that gets the ball out of his hands quickly and utilises extreme spread-concepts.

Increasingly I agree with Colin Cowherd on the subject of coaching. You can have a defensive-minded Head Coach but you need a top play-caller on offense to make it work. One of Pete Carroll’s big issues is his desire to have full control and his unwillingness to go out and land a star play-caller who gets the keys to the offense.

One of Bill Belichick’s greatest strengths is the fact he has McDaniels next to him — running a very effective offense that fits the personnel they have. Nick Saban has gone the same way in Alabama.

I really wish Carroll would’ve embraced this a few years ago.

3. The middle rounds will contain great value

Carroll has done a terrible job building the roster to suit his preferred style. Seattle’s O-line isn’t good enough. Their running back situation isn’t good enough.

If you want to play ‘your’ style — you need to be better there. And that’s as much a failure as anything else when we discuss the Seahawks’ reset from 2018 onwards.

It’s incredible to think the Seahawks passed on all of the top current NFL runners — from Jonathan Taylor to Dalvin Cook to Derrick Henry to Nick Chubb to Alvin Kamara to Joe Mixon and Antonio Gibson. And the one time they chanced their arm with a high pick — they rolled the dice on Rashaad Penny.

We’ve discussed some of the O-line and D-line options. The Seahawks also need to be better at running back. I think there are options in this class.

For me, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet is RB1. He runs hard and fights through contact. He’s a competent pass-catcher. He blocks better than most in pass-pro. He’s also well-sized and looks explosive.

I would project Charbonnet to be a third rounder and he is someone to target.

The rest of my top-five would be Kenneth Walker at #2, Brian Robinson at #3, Dameon Pierce at #4 and Breece Hall at #5.

The Seahawks need to revamp the position. Pairing Charbonnet with Pierce would be a good way to do it. Florida has squandered Pierce’s career but he’s explosive, will make you miss in the open field and he’s tough. He will be available on day three, I would imagine, and would be a great complement to someone like Charbonnet.

It’s such a good tight end class I think you have to tap into it somewhere. Jalen Wydermyer and Trey McBride will likely go too early but if they fell into round two, warrant BPA consideration depending on how they test (agility testing is a huge indicator at the position). Greg Dulcich and Derrick Deese Jr are the two players I would recommend if you want a pass-catcher. Jeremy Ruckert and Jake Ferguson both have rounded games and are good blockers.

There are other holes that are set to emerge. There is no justification for paying Bobby Wagner $20m next year (however much the MNF crew want to fawn over him). Cornerback will continue to be an issue if Tre Brown is out an extended period of time, especially with D.J. Reed reaching free agency.

Regardless of what happens with Wilson, it might be time to decide whether the Seahawks are better getting a haul for D.K. Metcalf rather than paying him $20m or above in a big extension.

Thankfully — this draft will provide value in the middle rounds.

Yet it’s incredible, really, that this franchise is facing one of the biggest, ugliest rebuilds imaginable. It’s taken horrible mismanagement of the roster to reach this point. There could be years of pain ahead if they make the wrong decisions in January through to May.

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