Tony Pauline produced an updated big board this week. With just over two weeks to go, it’s a revealing and interesting read.

It also explains the quandary facing the Seahawks.

I’ve told this story before but it’s worth relaying. Before the 2010 draft a little birdie passed on some information that the Seahawks initially had strong interest in a safety and tackle combo with their two first round picks. I never established whether this was by choice or because of the options available.

There was a feeling they were targeting Eric Berry at #6 and Trent Williams at #14. Before the combine Williams’ stock was seen to be in the mid-first round range. Berry’s stock, equally, had fluctuated a bit after a so-so final season at Tennessee.

A brilliant combine helped propel Williams well into the top-five. Berry also ran a 4.40 and jumped a 43 inch vertical. Plans changed.

Obviously I’ve never verified any of this so it could be false, although this source was reliable and passed on some other nuggets that came true, including the Marshawn Lynch trade days before it occurred (which I tweeted about and was given a credit for at the time).

They ended up taking Russell Okung at #6 and Earl Thomas at #14. All’s well that ends well. It goes to show how things shift and change during an off-season process — yet you can still come away with a satisfactory conclusion.

The point of bringing this up is I suspect the Seahawks made the Russell Wilson trade thinking there was a good chance a pass rusher would be available at #9. They talked it up as the off-season priority and Clint Hurtt directly spoke of a need for a game-wrecker. Pete Carroll stated they wanted another Darrell Taylor.

Many were mocking Jermaine Johnson as a fringe first rounder in January. A great Senior Bowl and combine has seen his stock rise and rise. Now he’s a consensus top-10 pick and probably doesn’t get out of the top-seven.

I think the Seahawks possibly had their eye specifically on him. And if not him, one of the others. Travon Walker for example. Now it appears neither will reach #9. Aidan Hutchinson definitely won’t. Only perceived character flags could make it a possibility for Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Thus, we had the Uchenna Nwosu signing — the most expensive outside free agent addition in the Carroll era. A clear sign that post combine the Seahawks knew which way this was going and needed more than a minor hedge.

Tony’s big board has Thibodeaux, Hutchinson and Walker at #1, #2 and #3. Johnson is at #7.

Kyle Hamilton was assumed to be a very high pick but that no longer seems likely. This also adds another issue where teams who might’ve considered Hamilton perhaps pivot now to the more attractive option at a more premium position (DE/OL).

If, as expected, the best pass rushers are gone — and if we assume the Seahawks have been anticipating this since the combine — they have likely been preparing an alternative non-pass-rushing plan for the #9 pick.

I would argue the next few names on Tony’s list — Charles Cross, Jordan Davis, Garrett Wilson, Hamilton, Jameson Williams — are no better than the group that follows — Derek Stingley Jr, George Karlaftis, Trevor Penning and Devin Lloyd. Either that or they play positions that aren’t needed in Seattle.

It’s what we’d call over here ‘sod’s law’. Unfortunately the Seahawks could be just out of reach of the options they truly covet. The same is likely true for Atlanta. Quarterbacks going in the top-10 would change that but I’m just not buying it. And neither are the likes of Scot McCloughan, who I interviewed recently.

This is why trading down might be more likely than it was a few months ago. It’s just the reality of the situation.

Personally I’d be open to standing pat at #9 and taking Stingley Jr because I rate him higher than Tony. But if Tony has him rated in the mid-first, and if that’s where he’s expected to go, it’s plausible to move down a few spots and still target him.

If the Seahawks don’t plan to select any cornerback early — which is also a distinct possibility given their history — I’d argue the Karlaftis/Penning/Lloyd option — combined with Zion Johnson — plus an extra day two pick, is a better scenario than staying put and taking one of the higher ranked players.

So while some fans will sneer at the prospect of another trade down given Seattle’s recent track record — it might actually be somewhat justified here.

Unless the top-10 becomes a lot more unpredictable and one of the better pass rushers or offensive linemen fall. Then you stay put. There are plenty of mocks out there predicting this slice of fortune — but none are realistic. The top four pass rushers, Evan Neal and Ikem Okwonu will not make it to #9. It means the Seahawks are going to have to adapt and adjust.

It makes it tricky to project who specifically they will take.

Stingley Jr feels like the kind of project Carroll would love to take on, thus he might be the front runner. But it’d be wrong to totally ignore the injury situation and Seattle’s preference to draft cornerbacks later.

I can see them having interest in Lloyd as an impact player in the front seven. Is another linebacker really the route to go though, in a deep linebacker class?

Penning for me isn’t necessarily a day-one starter at left tackle but they might shift him over to the right initially. He has so many technical flaws though that it’d be a risky pick to launch a rebuild.

Johnson would be a plug-and-play left guard with an outstanding profile. He might be the safest available player.

Karlaftis isn’t anything, really, like the pass rushers they’ve drafted or signed in the past. Yet there’s no doubting his high-energy, high-effort style. As I mentioned last week, a trusted talent evaluator generously passed on his comparison to me: ‘He’s Aidan Hutchinson just available later in the draft‘. Can he drop into coverage though in a 3-4? Debatable.

The no-man’s land position in this class might sadly be #8 or #9. Thus, we could see the Falcons simply take the receiver they need. The Seahawks might feel obliged to take their top option on the board whatever the position. Both teams would probably prefer to move down a bit, gain some stock and take a similarly graded player in the middle portion of the first round.

Trading down could also allow Seattle to trade up later — something they’ve had success with in the past in the round two range (Jarran Reed, DK Metcalf, Darrell Taylor).

Tony has Tyler Linderbaum at #29 on his board having previously reported that he could fall into round two. At his pro-day yesterday he ran a 4.98 forty, an outstanding 4.38 short shuttle and if he’d benched only the average amount of the combine testers his TEF would’ve been an explosive 3.07.

His size limitations will always be an issue for some teams but the other big problem was the lack of testing combined with the size. Now that he has some numbers to look at and the mystery is removed, for me it’s very unlikely he will fall out of day one.

I do think the Seahawks are very interested in him. Austin Blythe is a clear hedge. I don’t think the talk of Blythe’s size and wrestling background is a coincidence. The benefit of a hedge is you don’t necessarily have to force the issue — so it’s not a cast-iron lock that Seattle trades up to claim what would be a great prize in this draft for their scheme.

However — if they want to make this blocking scheme work, there isn’t really a better option than Linderbaum to lead from the front. He would be a fantastic choice to help launch a new era with an injection of talent, aggression and athleticism to the offensive line.

If he falls into the late 20’s it would be well worth the Seahawks looking at options to trade back into round one to secure him. Trading down from #9 would secure the extra stock to make this even more possible.

What would it cost? The 2019 draft is the last time we saw teams trading back into the late first. The Giants gave Seattle a fourth and fifth round pick to go from #37 to #30. The Falcons jumped from #45 to #31 for the price of a third round pick.

Seattle has one fourth and two fifth round picks — with the potential to add more. So moving up from #40 wouldn’t be too challenging.

Getting a quality defensive prospect and a great offensive line addition with their first two picks would match the start of the 2010 build and would, frankly, be ideal.

At #41 they would have options. They could move down again to replenish their stock, or they could seek value. What a luxury to have that extra pick this year.

The reason I think they are so interested in Michael Clemons despite people, fairly, raising his average testing results is simple. He flashes on tape the same way Darrell Taylor did. Wins in the same way Taylor won. They’ve stated they want that and he’s attending the VMAC on an official visit.

Plus you wouldn’t be taking him in the same range as L.J. Collier so the risk isn’t anywhere near comparable.

If they miss out on the top pass rushers he could easily be their mid-round fall-back option to rotate in with Taylor, Nwosu and Alton Robinson. There’s already talk of a reunion with Carlos Dunlap too.

Ideally you’d get that great pass rusher in the top-10. If that’s not possible — this still feels like a reasonable plan.

And as mentioned before — Clemons just has that alpha, aggressive, tone-setting air that this team has lacked for a few years.

If you enjoy the content on Seahawks Draft Blog then please consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…

Become a Patron!

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen. Big thank you again for Curtis’ help and support for the blog. He’s a great asset for this community.

Working out the future at quarterback for the Seahawks

With the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson this year, they return to that anxious state they have avoided for the last ten seasons — needing a franchise quarterback.

It will be a truly fascinating exercise. The search will no doubt re-energize Pete Carroll’s college competition style roots and while the fan base has been thrown into uncertainty about the future prospects of the team, it most definitely won’t be boring.

There has been (and will continue to be) a lot of discussion on this subject. I wanted to contribute a bit by laying out some thoughts on the current market to get a feel for the factors the Seahawks will have to consider going forward…

The Financial Landscape

Six quarterbacks are currently making in excess of $40 million dollars per year annually. It will probably balloon to as many as nine when Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray sign extensions and Russell Wilson signs his inevitable extension with the Broncos.

This is the current reality. The cap has recovered from the pandemic and the league has signed extremely lucrative new TV deals. Quarterbacks and their agents are keeping pace by continually resetting the top of the market with their contracts. 

It is possible, however, that the Cleveland Browns’ enormous contract with Deshaun Watson has upended the market and set the NFL on a completely different course. This one deal could change not just the financial landscape but also the competitive balance of the league.

That is a grandiose statement to match a grandiose contract.

What makes it such a game-changer? It is not the total dollars or the average annual value that makes it stand out.  It is the fact that all $230 million of the contract is fully guaranteed. Not guaranteed for injury, or for skill, or anything else. Fully 100% guaranteed.

Comparing apples to apples, the most recent “most fully guaranteed dollars at signing” contract record-holders were Aaron Rodgers ($100m guaranteed), Josh Allen ($100m), and Dak Prescott ($95m) who signed in the last calendar year.  

Those numbers have obviously been completely blown out of the water by this contract.

How big of an issue is having a fully guaranteed contract at the top of the market?

It could be huge.

The first issue is it binds the team to the player in a way previously considered unthinkable.

Teams frequently structure their top contracts to have some maneuverability in them.  When fans hear a team has signed a player to a 5-year $100 million contract, they often mentally lock $20 million as an annual cap number for that player. However, the structure frequently gives the team more room to add critical pieces and the ability escape the contract before it is over if they find they need to.  

For example, the Rams were able to separate themselves from the Jared Goff contract before he had even played a down on it and acquire Matthew Stafford in the deal. It cost them top draft picks and some dead money but their rash decision to extend Goff early did not prevent them from making the move. I think we can all agree that move worked out well for them.

The Browns on the other hand have zero maneuverability with Watson’s contract. After a $10 million cap hit in 2022 (structured to minimize a potential loss of income due to a suspension), the Browns will have four straight years of $54.9 million cap hits that are fully guaranteed. Watson accounts for a whopping 24.4% of the Browns’ cap all by himself in 2023.

A key detail of the contract was also revealed recently. Mike Florio has gotten hold of the Watson contract:

With his lawyer’s reading he has discerned that the contract guarantees remain in effect even if any of the 22 filed complaints result in a suspension. Typically, guarantees of this magnitude offer the team some protection. They can void the guaranteed money if there is a personal conduct violation. But the Browns have in effect waived their protections and agreed to guarantee this massive contract.

Further, the only possible mechanism the Browns could use to lower the cap hit is to convert some of that salary to bonus and push it into future seasons. And really, that just digs them deeper into the hole.

Also, a contract that large and binding acts as its own no-trade clause, which adds a whole other dimension to the move. The Browns are unequivocally committed to Watson.

It is both the biggest investment and the biggest gamble on one player in NFL history.

The contract has obviously drawn the attention of NFL owners. In a rare break from normal protocols, a fellow owner from the Browns’ own division has gone on record as being not very happy with the contract: 

Part 1 of Bisciotti on impact of Deshaun Watson’s new deal with Cleveland on Jackson talks: “It’s like, ‘Damn, I wish they hadn’t guaranteed the whole contract.’ I don’t know that he should’ve been the first guy to get a fully guaranteed contract.”

— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) March 29, 2022

Bisciotti, Part 2: “To me, that’s something that is groundbreaking, and it’ll make negotiations harder with others. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to play that game, you know? We shall see.”

— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) March 29, 2022

Bisciotti is well within his rights to express frustration. He has a pending negotiation with Lamar Jackson, who appears set on charting an unconventional path by not employing an agent and showing no apparent interest in negotiating an extension entering the final year of his rookie contract.

So, the question needs to be asked — are fully guaranteed contracts the new standard for franchise quarterbacks? Are teams going to be forced to rethink their entire payroll and team-building model and bind themselves even more tightly to this small subset of premium players?

It is clear that everyone on all sides is still reeling from the enormity of the contract. It is simply too early to tell.

Arguments against the model:  Kirk Cousins secured the first big-money fully guaranteed contract in 2018, signing a three-year $84 million contract with the Vikings. How did everyone react to that contract? It did not move the needle very much at all. In short order Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and then Russell Wilson signed market-topping deals that were not fully guaranteed. It is within the realm of possibility that the Watson contract is so utterly unmatchable that the rest of the league will have no choice but to consider it an outlier and ignore it.

Arguments for the model:  Cousins was a perfect storm. He played the game beautifully. He was franchised tagged twice and then entered the market as a free agent when Washington could no longer make another tag work. He found a fit with the Vikings. They were coming off a Conference Championship loss and viewed Cousins as the missing piece. It was a shorter contract that did not reset the average annual value record.

Watson is completely different. He was under contract already. The Browns not only gave up massive capital in trade but they also bought him out of his existing contract, which was already very healthy.  

We are not talking about the head-and-shoulders best player in the NFL. The total tonnage of Watson’s legal problems, missing an entire season of play and the potential of a suspension make this a juicy negotiating point for quarterbacks who are squeaky clean and have top-level performance in recent years to point to.

Agents that are strategizing and plotting their moves for the next couple of seasons that are not considering every ramification of Watson’s contract will quickly be left behind in the game.

But has it changed the entire landscape of the NFL? Again, it is too early to say. We will get a better picture when the next extensions are signed. Russell Wilson is likely next, then Kyler Murray.

Therefore, from a purely financial standpoint, it does appear that trading Wilson this offseason was the best solution for the Seahawks. Putting aside for a moment the tensions and the fact that it appears that Wilson would not sign another extension with the team, they made their move in the market at the best time they could.  

Patrick Mahomes had topped $45 million per season. Aaron Rodgers was very likely to do the same soon at that point. If the Seahawks thought those numbers for Wilson were unworkable, it was time to move on. That viewpoint got validated with a giant exclamation point when the news broke of Watson’s deal.  

Aside from a top salary, a new condition had been introduced. A franchise quarterback could shoot for as much guaranteed money as possible and that would simply create an untenable situation for the Seahawks, particularly with Pete Carroll at the helm.

As an aside, if you ask me, the Broncos not having Wilson sign an extension the minute he got off his jet in Denver was a very expensive mistake. They misjudged the market and it will cost them dearly.  

It is possible they approached Wilson and he rebuffed them, preferring to wait and see what other top names got first. The Broncos then had a calculated decision to make and they decided that a franchise quarterback was worth the extra cost.

At any rate, it does speak to the financial windfall the Seahawks will have once Wilson’s dead cap money gets off the books next season.

There is a second element to consider with these fully guaranteed contracts, however — the funding of the contract would pose a significant challenge for some of the franchises that are in flux or are not typically flush with cash.

According to the CBA, teams must put the entire guaranteed amount of a contract in escrow to give the player security that the contract will be paid. It is routine and something that occurs every day.

But writing a check for $230 million to fund a fully guaranteed contract for your quarterback is not something all owners have the capacity to do. The Raiders traded Khalil Mack away in 2018 partially due to not having enough cash to fund the guaranteed portion of the mega-contract he was gunning for.  

Other family-owned teams like the Bengals and Chargers derive most of their personal wealth from their equity share in the franchise, not from other outside business dealings. Funding that much money could be a significant challenge for them.  

It is possible that if Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert look at Watson’s contract and want that kind of security on their first extension, their teams will have no choice but to either auction them off in trade, or franchise them twice and let them walk away.

This would lead to an NBA-type situation where the gap between the haves and the have-nots gets even wider.

But for the Seahawks, with the team in a trust and a sale in the near future pending, it would not make sense to commit that much money to escrow and then sell the team. Bobby Wagner got $40 million guaranteed in his last Seahawks extension. Tyler Lockett got $24 million. Jamal Adams $21 million. Those are numbers you can have on the books and not alter the course of your negotiation with a potential buyer.

But having something like $230 million committed? That would have an impact.

That is the level this new condition could go to. Affecting ownership financial strategies and decisions.

The point being, the financial implications could be poised to fully overtake the on-field impact as the primary driver of future team moves.

Really, whether the next big financial evolution for franchise quarterbacks is getting fully guaranteed contracts or simply getting a bigger piece of the salary cap pie, the cost of having a top veteran quarterback on your roster is growing.

Seeing as that is the case, the steps forward for the Seahawks are obvious.

The Seahawks Need to Regularly Invest in the Draft at Quarterback

John Schneider recently mentioned how much success his mentor and the team had in Green Bay over the years selecting quarterbacks when there was not a perceived need. That seems as big a sign as any that the Seahawks intend to follow that practice with Russell Wilson gone and Drew Lock’s long-term future in Seattle anything but certain at this point.

Schneider mentioned that the Seahawks have strayed from that method in recent years:

“One thing we haven’t done – my mentor did all the time in Green Bay – that we haven’t done a very good job of for one reason or another… is we haven’t picked quarterbacks. I don’t know why. Just for some reason since we’ve been here it hasn’t fallen that way.”

We all know why. The combination of having an incredibly durable franchise quarterback (until last year anyway) and aggressively pursuing trades that depleted the team of draft capital in recent years has pushed this strategy into the background.

No more.

With a big need there, experience with the practice and the enormous financial pressure that extending a top quarterback brings, this should be an iron-clad organizational goal to always have a quarterback in development — ‘one in the chamber’ as Schneider has termed it in the past.

Is it a rule that the Seahawks must take a quarterback in the draft every single year? No, of course not. They should only select players they feel meet their scouting standards and in a round of the draft they feel comfortable with.

As far as 2022 goes, the Seahawks have options. They can ride with Drew Lock and Jacob Eason and eventually come to terms with Geno Smith. They can squeeze the Browns to pay as much of Baker Mayfield’s contract as possible and then add him as a one-year stopgap.  

They are well positioned to take a swing in this draft in either the top two rounds or in the middle rounds.  

An early forecast of the 2023 draft also indicates there will be better quality available at the position than this season and the Seahawks will once again be well positioned to strike — with two first-round and two second-round picks currently.

Conventional wisdom points to saving your draft assets for 2023 and building the team up at other vital positions, making full use of a very deep 2022 draft. Personally, I agree with that logic. If the Seahawks can somehow come away from the first two rounds this year with three great non-QB prospects that would be cause for celebration.

However, in the spirit of exploring all the options, and given the quarterback climate we just discussed, there is an avenue that needs to be considered that could be potentially rewarding — taking a quarterback in the bottom half of the first round of the draft this year.

Why? From a purely financial standpoint, the Seahawks would have a cost-controlled quarterback position for five full seasons — and perhaps six if they want to make use of the franchise tag.

Take Lamar Jackson as an example. The Ravens traded up to the last pick in the 2018 first round to get him. What a shrewd move that was.

For $9.47 million, they secured four years of Jackson. They activated the first-round fifth year option last year and have him locked in 2022 for a very affordable $23 million. The franchise tag for quarterbacks in 2023 would be in the low $30 million range, which starts to get pricey — but another year of team control could easily be seen as worth the cost.

That is $62 million for six seasons. If you update those numbers to 2022 values you are probably looking at $70-75 million for six seasons.

Deshaun Watson is already halfway there with his bonus money and will eclipse it with his salary by December 2023. That is before we talk about the package of picks Cleveland sent.

So you see the value there.

Of course they are not all going to be Lamar Jacksons. The recent bottom half of the first round is littered with quarterbacks who have not shined, from Paxton Lynch to Dwayne Haskins to Jordan Love. That is before we talk about top-five picks that have not worked out. Ask Cleveland and Carolina how excited they are to be on the hook for almost $19 million guaranteed for the two guys they probably wish would just go away.

So there is risk — but the Seahawks must weigh the franchise-tilting cost of acquiring and paying a top-flight quarterback and potentially shredding their roster against the disappointment of using a first-round pick that does not produce.

For the Seahawks to take a quarterback in the bottom half of the first round this year, several things need to fall their way:

• There has to be a player they really like available. As I said above, they cannot reach for a quarterback because of some slot-fill thinking or be enticed simply by finance. They have to really think he can be a factor.
• He has to be available and the Seahawks have to find a suitable trade partner.
• If they are going to trade some of their capital away, they have to be confident their scouting can turn up a player in the fifth round or later that has the potential to be more than a career backup.
• If the Seahawks do trade D.K. Metcalf for a haul of picks, it could be reasoned that using a pick of that return on a high-leverage position like a quarterback is an easily justifiable tactic. Maybe even two if someone they really like is available in the middle rounds.

So the conditions have to be right for this to happen.

If played correctly, the Seahawks could take a quarterback this year and have the stock to acquire a top prospect next year as well if they like. Having two quarterbacks on rookie salaries hedges the position and they could be aggressive in adding talent around them for the next four seasons in free agency and other areas.

Again, my preference is stocking the roster in 2022 and waiting for superior quarterback talent in 2023. But looking at this year’s class as well is a conversation worth having.

Do not think Pete Carroll will be afraid to make the moves he deems necessary. Remember, he was introduced as the Seahawks’ head coach in January 2010. By mid-March he had traded Seneca Wallace away and acquired Charlie Whitehurst for a swap of picks in the second round of the draft that year and a next year third round pick.

He then moved on from Matt Hasselbeck and brought Tarvaris Jackson in the following year.  

The year after that he did not resign Whitehurst, signed Matt Flynn to a healthy free agent deal and drafted a short quarterback from Wisconsin in the third round.

He churned the roster until he found his quarterback. He could do the same thing again as soon as this month. History and the financial aspect tell us it is a possibility that we should mentally prepare for.

This podcast episode is also available on Spotify & Apple…

A reminder that these mock drafts are a projection. This isn’t what I want to happen, necessarily. I’m running through different scenarios to create talking points.

In this two-round mock I wanted to look at a situation where the Seahawks are faced with a choice of Derek Stingley Jr at #9 or moving down. I think this could be a very real prospect for them. If it plays out that way, it comes down to taking a chance on a player who could be the best in the draft versus thinking — the injury is a concern, we haven’t taken cornerbacks early, we’ll trade down.

I’ve already done a mock with the Seahawks taking Stingley Jr — so I want to look at a different scenario here.

There are notes on Seattle’s picks after each of the full two rounds. Then I’ll run through a full seven round mock for the Seahawks.

First round

#1 Jacksonville — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekonwu (G, NC State)
#7 NY Giants — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#8 Atlanta — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#9 Baltimore (v/SEA) — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#10 New York Jets — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#11 Washington — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#12 LA Chargers (v/MIN) — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#13 Houston — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#14 Seattle (v/BAL) — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#15 Philadelphia — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#16 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#17 Minnesota (v/LAC) — Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
#18 Philadelphia — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
#19 New Orleans — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Pittsburgh — Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
#21 New England — Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
#22 Green Bay — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#23 Arizona — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#24 Dallas — Tyler Smith (T, Tulsa)
#25 Buffalo — Quay Walker (LB, Georgia)
#26 Tennessee — Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)
#27 Tampa Bay — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
#28 Green Bay — Drake London (WR, USC)
#29 Kansas City — Travis Jones (DT, Connecticut)
#30 Seattle (v/KC) — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#31 Cincinnati — Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
#32 Detroit — Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)

The trades

Baltimore (14) trades up with Seattle (9) for #76
The Ravens need a right tackle and are showing a lot of interest in Trevor Penning. They jump ahead of the Jets and ward-off interest from the Chargers in Penning.

LA Chargers (17) trades up with Minnesota (12) for #79
According to Tony Pauline, the Vikings are showing serious interest in Trent McDuffie and will look to move down and select him. The Chargers, meanwhile, appear to be targeting a right tackle, receiver or Jordan Davis.

Seattle (40) trades up with Kansas City (30) for #109 & 2023 R4
Explanation included in the notes below.

Thoughts on the Seahawks’ picks

The prospect of taking Derek Stingley Jr is going to be incredibly tempting. He is more than just a ‘good cornerback’. He has a big, powerful frame to combine with 4.37 speed and explosive traits. This is a player who showed as a freshman the ability to stick with elite level receivers currently bossing the NFL.

One thing I forgot to mention in my piece on Stingley Jr on Wednesday — the source I spoke to within the league said he thought he was better than Patrick Surtain.

He has no character flaws and the negatives surrounding him are overblown. Yes, the Lis Franc injury will be thoroughly investigated. I thought he looked fighting fit at his pro-day. He was also out there competing. A reminder that Sauce Gardner hasn’t done a vertical, broad, three-cone or short shuttle pre-draft.

I would take Stingley Jr. For me, it’s not even really much of a debate. I’ll take that shot on greatness and have no regrets.

Yet there are things to consider in this initial round of the mock for the Seahawks. How much is the focus in this draft going to be on the defensive front seven? After all — they’ve re-signed Sidney Jones, brought in Artie Burns and Justin Coleman and they really like Tre Brown.

Earlier this week Shelby Harris mentioned the importance of the linebackers in the Vic Fangio scheme and made reference to the importance of pressure, allowing the cornerbacks essentially to just make their plays.

The Seahawks haven’t done anything at linebacker other than the minor addition of Joel Iyiegbuniwe. It seems unlikely to me they’d just move off Bobby Wagner and then hand the starter job to Cody Barton.

At some point they’re going to add a linebacker — possibly in the first two rounds. And it could be round two. The options are good.

I do wonder though if they’ll really like Devin Lloyd. He’s one of the players in this draft you can just plug in and you’d back him to make plays right away. He’s constantly talked about as an ‘alpha’ who, as a captain, helped elevate Utah to the PAC-12 title.

He’s an ideally sized, aggressive, physical linebacker with 33 inch arms. Yet he’s also incredibly versatile and can play outside or inside. As a pass rusher he dips and bends better than some pass rushers. He ran a 1.58 10-yard split.

In a copycat league — maybe they see him doing the whole Micah Parsons thing? Some linebacker, some rushing off the edge.

It would certainly explain the readiness they had in moving on from Bobby Wagner, if they had their eye on adding Lloyd in round one.

I then have the Seahawks trading back into round one. I think a scenario where they move down from #9 and then up from #40 is extremely viable.

I don’t think it’ll be for a quarterback. I don’t think the Seahawks are going to draft a quarterback early. I do think they will be looking for core, foundation players early in this draft. People they can build around.

Lloyd fits that description and so does Tyler Linderbaum. According to Pete Carroll they signed Austin Blythe — a draft hedge — because they want to try a player with his size. They also like his wrestling background. Linderbaum has an identical body-type and an even better wrestling background in High School.

With these two picks the Seahawks may feel like they’ve added two of the best players in the draft. They may also feel like they’ve added building blocks, leaders and tone-setters.

Second round

#33 Jacksonville — Cam Jurgens (C, Nebraska)
#34 Detroit — Christian Watson (WR, North Dakota State)
#35 New York Jets — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
#36 New York Giants — Boye Mafe (DE, Minnesota)
#37 Houston — Arnold Ebiketie (DE, Penn State)
#38 New York Jets — Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
#39 Chicago — Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State)
#40 Detroit (v/SEA) — Lewis Cine (S, Georgia)
#41 Seattle — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
#42 Atlanta (v/IND) — Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
#43 Atlanta — Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)
#44 Cleveland — Perrion Winfrey (DT, Oklahoma)
#45 Baltimore — Cole Strange (G/C, Chattanooga)
#46 Minnesota — Greg Dulcich (TE, UCLA)
#47 Washington — Leo Chenal (LB, Wisconsin)
#48 Chicago — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
#49 New Orleans — Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State)
#50 Kansas City — Nick Cross (S, Maryland)
#51 Philadelphia — Jaquan Brisker (S, Penn State)
#52 Pittsburgh — Bernhard Raimann (G, Central Michigan)
#53 Green Bay — Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
#54 New England — Troy Andersen (LB, Montana State)
#55 Arizona — Roger McCreary (CB, Auburn)
#56 Dallas — Sam Williams (DE, Ole Miss)
#57 Buffalo — Jalyn Armour-Davis (CB, Alabama)
#58 Indianapolis (v/ATL) — Demarri Mathis (CB, Pittsburgh)
#59 Green Bay — Logan Hall (DT, Houston)
#60 Tampa Bay — Bryan Cook (S, Cincinnati)
#61 San Francisco — Joshua Paschal (DE, Kentucky)
#62 Kansas City — Tariq Woolen (CB, UTSA)
#63 Cincinnati — Marcus Jones (CB, Houston)
#64 Denver — Nik Bonitto (OLB, Oklahoma)

The trade

Atlanta (58) trades up with Indianapolis (42) for #82
The Falcons gifted the Colts Matt Ryan. Here, Indy repays the favour. They get their third rounder back to move down 16 spots, allowing the Falcons to select Desmond Ridder.

Thoughts on the Seahawks’ pick

Just like there’s been a peculiar lack of interest in adding any kind of linebacker post-Wagner — the Seahawks haven’t exactly been active in the tackle market either. While there’s still a good chance Duane Brown returns — it’s also possible they’ve got their eye on at least one tackle in the draft.

Abraham Lucas has been a blog favourite for a long time. He had a sensational combine and for me, was by far the most impressive player during on-field drills. On top of that, he ran a 4.92 forty and an outstanding 4.40 short shuttle. He’s a 2.97 TEF tester — in range for what Seattle has looked for under Carroll and Schneider.

They could plug him in at right tackle, then re-sign Brown to play the left side and the offensive line would be complete.

Seahawks seven round mock

#14 — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#30 — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#41 — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)

#72 — Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
It’ll almost be a surprise if the Seahawks don’t select Pierce. He has the size and explosive traits they love. His physical brand of punishing running is right in the Chris Carson, Thomas Rawls, Marshawn Lynch ball-park. Even if he ends up somewhere else, this guy is a Seahawk.

#76 — Michael Clemons (DE, Texas A&M)
According to Brady Henderson he’s taking an official visit to Seattle. He has 35 inch arms and looks the part. It’s his attitude that stands out though. The guy is angry as hell after losses and just has that look in his eye. The look we haven’t seen in these parts since Kam Chancellor. The way he looks and speaks — it’s BAMF territory.

#152 — Percy Butler (S, Louisiana)
A special teams freak, Butler will be an immediate contribution as a gunner. He has the potential to be developed into more over time but his day one impact on special teams could easily see him go much earlier than this.

#153 — Matt Henningsen (DT, Wisconsin)
If the Seahawks like Logan Hall early but don’t get a chance to take him, Henningsen could be a consolation prize. He ran a remarkable 4.29 short shuttle at the Badgers’ pro-day, a 7.19 three cone and then added a 37.5 inch vertical and a 9-11 broad jump — all at 290lbs.

#230 — Ja’Tyre Carter (G, Southern)
He’s a 2.98 TEF tester who played tackle in college. The Rams liked to convert tackles inside to guard and Carter could be a flyer to see if he can pull that off.

What would trading D.K. Metcalf look like?

Let’s say the Jets offered #10 and #38. You could do all of the above — but now add in Derek Stingley Jr and one of the other players in the top half of round two.

If you enjoy the content on Seahawks Draft Blog then please consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…

Become a Patron!

In today’s notes I’m going to cover the following:

— Reflecting on info on the top-10 and how it impacts Seattle
— Is Devin Lloyd an option?
— Hidden gems for day three
— Peter Schrager’s mock draft
— TEF updates

Reflecting on info on the top-10 and how it impacts Seattle

Tony Pauline, friend of the blog and the #1 draft insider in the business, revealed yesterday that the expectation in the league is that there will be a rush on offensive linemen and pass rushers in the top-10.

This is something we’ve been discussing and predicting for a number of weeks. I think we’re starting to see the first few picks taking shape and we can start to imagine the options for the Seahawks at #9.

Pauline thinks Jermaine Johnson ‘will go earlier than people think’. Increasingly it doesn’t look like he will last to #9. The problem is, it doesn’t look like Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson or Travon Walker will either. Tony suggested — again, as we’ve been predicting — that the four top pass rushers could go in the first six or seven picks.

When you break things down, you start to see why this is. The quarterbacks are not good enough to go in the top-10. The source I referred to yesterday, an experienced league executive, reiterated that he didn’t think any QB would go in the first ten picks.

The Jaguars and Lions will both take a pass rusher. The Texans, led by former Patriots exec Nick Caserio, will likely take the Belichickian route. That is, a player who stands a good chance of earning a second contract. Safe, dependable. The Belichick crowd also have good connections to Nick Saban. Evan Neal feels like a distinct possibility. If not, it could be another pass rusher.

The Jets will could go pass rusher, cornerback (Sauce Gardner) or offensive line. The Giants will take a lineman. And then there’s the Panthers.

Most of the mocks are pairing the Panthers with a quarterback. This is a mistake. David Tepper the owner has been pressuring his staff to aim high and land a superstar QB. He is frustrated by a series of investments in middling, low-ceiling quarterbacks.

How is drafting Kenny Pickett, for example, going to change that?

Selecting Malik Willis won’t do much good either, given he needs a year to feel his way into the league.

The other thing to consider is the future of Matt Rhule, which is dicey to say the least. Scott Fitterer the GM is going to want to think long term here — essentially beyond life with a Head Coach he inherited. He’ll also likely have his eye on the 2023 quarterbacks.

With no day two picks the Panthers also need to fill out there board. I would say it’s incredibly likely Carolina will trade down and then take an offensive lineman. Failing that, they’ll probably take their top ranked available lineman at #6.

The Giants are then left to decide between a pass rusher (if any remain) or a cornerback (Sauce Gardner). They could also trade out of this spot. Then Atlanta. They also need a pass rusher badly but if none remain, they will either go BPA (they might see that as Gardner) or they’ll take a receiver.

I think it means the following players won’t be available to the Seahawks when they’re on the clock:

Travon Walker
Aidan Hutchinson
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Jermaine Johnson
Evan Neal
Ikem Ekwonu
Sauce Gardner

The other player could be Charles Cross or it could be a receiver such as Garrett Wilson. A wildcard could be someone moving up to take Trevor Penning — or a team like the Panthers preferring Penning over Cross (not out of the question at all).

This would be my best guess, for what it’s worth.

If this is accurate — and we don’t have too long to wait and find out — the Seahawks would be left (I think) choosing between taking Derek Stingley Jr at #9 or finding a deal to trade down.

I think there would be teams willing to move up. The Jets could take a receiver or an offensive lineman at #10. The Ravens and Chargers are supposedly focussing in on the offensive tackles. The Eagles and Saints are said to be targeting receivers.

Trading down could be appealing for two reasons. Firstly, you acquire more stock in a deep draft. Secondly, you have more ammunition to move up from #40. The Seahawks have a history of trading up in the round two area. Jarran Reed, D.K. Metcalf and Darrell Taylor all involved moves up the board.

I can well imagine a similar thing occurring this year. As noted a lot recently, it could be for Tyler Linderbaum. It could be for a quarterback.

Moving down from #9 makes this plausible. It’s also possible the Seahawks could move down from #9 to around #14 and still land Stingley Jr.

According to Pauline, the Vikings are targeting Trent McDuffie in round one and are willing to move down then select him. Provided Washington and Houston didn’t select Stingley Jr, he could be available for Seattle even after a small move down.

It feels very much like the Seahawks want a player who can start quickly and have an impact with their top pick. Stingley Jr would fit that bill. I think Zion Johnson would too.

As you move down, though, I think it’s important to wonder who else could fit into that role. I’m going to talk about Devin Lloyd in a bit. Whether they’d take him in round one is open to debate but certainly there’s a line of thought that he is day-one ready, a tone-setter and a leader with big production. Some people like George Karlaftis a lot more than I do. My source suggested to me that he’s viewed by some in the NFL as essentially Aidan Hutchinson just available a lot later. For what it’s worth, they had the exact same pass rush win percentage in 2021 (25.4%).

There’s also Georgia’s defensive tackle pairing and some others. As I said yesterday, there’s still some admiration for Clemson’s Andrew Booth despite his lack of testing impacting his stock.

The reason I think Stingley Jr will be appealing is because it’s a shot for greatness. It’s a chance to bring someone in with the potential to be one of the best at his position. There are going to be other good players available but do they have that ceiling?

Yet we all know this isn’t a team that has invested a lot of draft stock in the cornerback position. Adding someone who can bolster the front seven on defense or upgrade the offensive line might be more appealing. But I think they’d have to fit what the Seahawks are wanting to create and they’d have to produce a level of physical toughness that this team sought when it invested its other high picks in 2010 (Okung, Thomas) and 2012 (Irvin).

Is Devin Lloyd an option?

Bucky Brooks recently posted a mock with Lloyd at #9 and my initial reaction was to dismiss it and move on. However, listening to Jake Heaps on 710 Seattle Sports yesterday triggered a thought and made me think — I need to give this more attention.

Firstly, Lloyd isn’t just a typical middle linebacker. He had snaps at Utah where he rushed the edge better than some of the pass rushers in this class. His dip, lean and bend around the corner is surprisingly impressive.

When I was speaking to the source yesterday who generously shared some views on Derek Stingley Jr, I did ask about linebackers too. The feeling is Lloyd will go in round one and can play outside or inside linebacker. He’s not likely to be a full-time EDGE but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility a creative defense could use him as a chess piece.

For example — in Seattle he technically could play next to Jordyn Brooks on early downs then shift outside for pass rushing snaps. It could enable you to bring another defensive back on to the field and disguise what Lloyd’s going to do — drop or rush.

I do think the Seahawks will have some respect and time for Lloyd. He’s very much an alpha and he has 33 inch arms. His production is impressive (22.5 TFL’s and eight sacks in 2021). He flies around the field, makes plays, has been a vital team leader for Utah and will bring a level of seriousness and aggression to a defense.

He jumped a 35 inch vertical and a 10-6 broad at the combine. His forty was a 4.66.

I wanted to note this because you never know with the Seahawks. I don’t think it’s a preposterous suggestion and certainly some people rank Lloyd among the best players in the draft. Tony Pauline has him at #11 on his big board. He’s #12 on Daniel Jeremiah’s board.

If they move down from #9, perhaps Lloyd could be a possibility? He’s too much of an aggressive, physical, productive, tone-setting player to rule out completely.

Hidden gems for day three

Here are a group of players who might appeal to the Seahawks but aren’t generating much interest online. I’ve tried to match traits and trends along with tape study.

Matt Henningsen (DT, Wisconsin)
Ideally sized to play 3-4 end, Henningsen has the kind of profile Seattle has tended to like. He’s 6-3 and 290lbs with 33 1/8 inch arms. He ran a remarkable 4.29 short shuttle at the Badgers’ pro-day, a 7.19 three cone and then added a 37.5 inch vertical and a 9-11 broad jump. This is a special athletic profile on a player who flashed gritty play and an ability to disrupt.

Kevin Harris (RB, South Carolina)
A battering ram of a running back who loves nothing more than to absorb contact and drive through tackles. He fits the Seahawks in terms of size (5-10, 222lbs) and has the explosive testing they target at the position (37.5 inch vertical, 10-3 broad jump). If they miss out on a player like Dameon Pierce, Harris could be a viable alternative.

Devin Harper (LB, Oklahoma State)
A deep linebacker class gets deeper. Harper lacks length (sub-32 inch arms) and he’s only 6-0 and 234lbs. Yet on tape he plays with a degree of competitive spirit and his pro-day testing is worth noting. He ran a 4.03 short shuttle which is right up Seattle’s street. He also added a 40.5 inch vertical and a 4.50 forty.

Kyron Johnson (DE, Kansas)
Johnson caught the eye at the Senior Bowl when he had handsome wins against Trevor Penning and Abraham Lucas. Both reps were embarrassing for the tackles — with the much smaller Johnson bulldozing the pair on both occasions. At pro-day he ran a 4.40 forty and a 6.98 three cone before jumping a 39.5 inch vertical and a 10-0 broad. He’s a highly explosive, fast and powerful specialist rusher who could be a very useful rotational cog. He has short arms though, which could be an issue.

Daniel Imatorbhebhe (TE, Kansas State)
He’s had a nomadic college career — going from Florida to USC and then to Kansas State. As a late round or UDFA flier though — there’s some potential here. On tape he’s shown he can find a way to make big plays downfield by escaping coverage and squirting through to the second level. He ran a 7.05 three-cone (anything quicker than a 7.10 tends to get Seattle’s attention). He also has very useful 34 inch arms.

Devin Cochran (T, Georgia Tech)
A former Vanderbilt player, Cochran has inconsistent tape with flashes in the run game providing some hope for the future. He has great size and length (6-7, 306lbs, 35.5 inch arms) and he’ll appeal to teams seeking a project tackle. He’s a 2.93 TEF-tester let down by his bench press — which isn’t a surprise given his length. He’s one to watch for the later rounds.

Nolan Turner (S, Clemson)
His tape is so-so but there’s athletic potential to be had here and perhaps some special teams value. Turner ran a 4.42 forty at pro-day, jumped a 37.5 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad. He says he played hurt last year which could explain his fairly unspectacular play. With a profile like this though, teams will be more than happy to take a closer look as an undrafted free agent.

Micah McFadden (LB, Indiana)
Like a lot of teams the Seahawks take special teams very seriously and McFadden is a core special teamer. He only did the bench press at the combine but managed to produce a 4.15 short shuttle at pro-day and a 6.88 three-cone. A 35 inch vertical and 9-10 broad jump are in the ‘good not great’ category but as a late round flier or UDFA he will have some value and appeal.

Malcolm Rodriguez (LB, Oklahoma State)
Rodriguez is one of those players who does a lot right he just doesn’t look the part. At 5-11 and 236lbs with short 30 3/8 inch arms he has size limitations that will temper his stock. Yet a 39.5 inch vertical at the combine, a 10-0 broad jump at pro-day plus a 4.13 short shuttle will surely intrigue teams enough for him to get a shot later on.

Master Teague (RB, Ohio State)
Once considered a potential hot NFL prospect, Teague’s career at Ohio State never took off. He’s unlikely to be drafted but his physical profile is impressive — 221lbs, 4.47 forty, 36 inch vertical, 10-11 broad. Given his once vaunted stock, someone will bring him in for a camp.

Peter Schrager’s mock draft

Schrager loves to mention how many contacts he has in the NFL and to be fair, it has paid dividends for him at times. In 2020 he suddenly mocked Darrell Taylor to the Seahawks in round one the day before the draft. It’s clear he had some info and as we came to learn, it very nearly came true.

Thus, I think it’s important to look at his first mock draft published today.

I think seven of the first eight picks players taken will be off the board when Seattle’s on the clock at #9. The one I disagree with is Kenny Pickett. As mentioned earlier, I don’t think Carolina GM Scott Fitterer will take a QB at #6 and I don’t think any QB’s will go in the top-10.

Neither do I agree with his pick for the Seahawks at #9. I just don’t see this team picking an air-raid left tackle in the top-10 who jumped a 26 inch vertical at the combine and had average agility testing. I think it’d be very surprising to see a not particularly athletic or explosive offensive lineman drafted by this team that early.

I think this scenario is similar to the one mentioned earlier in this notes article — if they weren’t inclined to take Derek Stingley Jr then I think they would trade down.

Also, as discussed earlier, Schrager has the Seahawks moving up from #40 to get back into round one. I think the prospect of trading down from #9 then moving back into the first frame is extremely viable — either for a quarterback (Schrager’s suggestion) or for Tyler Linderbaum (who Schrager has falling out of round one).

The Seahawks do a deal with Kansas City and take Matt Corral:

“Corral is a Long Beach Poly (California) kid who played for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. Think Pete Carroll knows a thing or two about those programs? I can see Corral suiting up for Seattle.”

It does make sense to be fair. As we’ve noted a lot already, Carroll and the Kiffin’s are very close. They drafted Alex McGough from Lane’s program at Florida Atlantic. Corral has a lot of the things they like — including competitive spirit, a strong arm and mobility.

I’d still rather the Seahawks build up their roster and push the QB situation into 2023. And if I had to guess, I think they will. Three picks in the top-41 is a great opportunity to improve on both sides of the ball. In round three, I would expect them to add a running back.

It’s still a mock worth noting. There’s certainly potential for the Seahawks to move around the board to get the players they want.

TEF updates

The vast majority of the offensive linemen didn’t bench press at the combine and several didn’t do the vertical and/or broad jump. Here’s an updated TEF list. The players in green improved their score, the players in red reduced their score after pro-day testing. Anything above or around 3.00 is impressive in terms of explosive traits.

Confirmed TEF scores

Cole Strange — 3.42
Bernhard Raimann — 3.37
Cam Jurgens — 3.34
Zion Johnson — 3.33
Zach Tom — 3.33
Matt Waletzko — 3.15
Trevor Penning — 3.03
Kellen Diesch — 3.03
Ja’Tyre Carter — 2.98
Nick Zakelj — 2.98
Abraham Lucas — 2.97
Alec Lindstrom — 2.95
Sean Rhyan — 2.95
Marcus McKethan — 2.94
Andrew Rupcich — 2.93
Luke Fortner — 2.93
Ickey Ekonwu — 2.90
Chris Paul — 2.86
Charles Cross — 2.84
Braxton Jones — 2.83
Spencer Burford — 2.83
Dawson Deaton — 2.82
Dohnovan West — 2.80
Dylan Parham — 2.78
Nicholas Petit-Frere — 2.74
Tyler Smith — 2.73
Jamaree Salyer — 2.67
Myron Cunningham — 2.66
Justin Shaffer — 2.65
Cordell Volson — 2.63
Joshua Ezeudu — 2.58
Max Mitchell — 2.53
Lecitus Smith — 2.52
Daniel Faalele — 2.50
Zach Thomas — 2.48
Kenyon Green — 2.46
Cade Mays — 2.46
Obinna Eze — 2.45
Bill Dunkle — 2.45
Andrew Steuber — 2.27

Projected 2022 TEF scores

Logan Bruss — 3.08
Luke Wattenburg — 3.06
Chasen Hines — 2.95
Ja’Tyre Carter — 2.93
Austin Deculus — 2.91
Blaise Andries — 2.89
Luke Tenuta — 2.69
Thayer Munford — 2.57
Marquis Hayes — 2.56
Vederian Lowe — 2.56
Darian Kinnard — 2.54
Tyrese Robinson — 2.48
Ed Ingram — 2.47

If you missed my appearance on 710 Seattle Sports with Jake & Stacy yesterday, check it out here:

If you enjoy the content on Seahawks Draft Blog then please consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…

Become a Patron!

Derek Stingley with a 4.37 per the board at #LSU pic.twitter.com/3BVyqNa39W

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 6, 2022

LSU’s Derek Stingley had his long-awaited pro-day today after recovering from a Lisfranc joint injury. It’s a troublesome injury that some have described as ‘scary’ for players who rely on speed, quickness and change of direction. Truth be told, Stingley’s medical checks will be as important as anything he did at pro-day.

That said — if anyone was worried about the health of his foot, today’s performance should allay some fears.

He ran an ‘official’ 4.44 but other times — 4.33 and 4.37 — have been reported. He also jumped a 38.5 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad.

This is a deceptive time of year. The constant flow of information is full of red herrings. In the social media age, with more people than ever reporting on the draft, there’s more misinformation out there than ever.

One individual in the league told me that it’s common for a GM to tell the top information gatherers in journalism a few tall tales to aid their cause. For example, all this talk of the 2022 quarterbacks suddenly being drafted in the top-10 has a certain whiff of manure about it.

Meanwhile, some owners will peruse the mock drafts and listen to the TV analysts, then ask their key talent evaluators questions based on what Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are saying on ESPN.

With Stingley we hear all sorts about him dropping into the teens and falling down boards. I am not an insider, nor a reporter. I’m not going to make a habit of doing this and I have enough on my plate with the day job. That said, I have built some contacts and I reached out to an active NFL source at the executive level to find out what the truth is about the LSU cornerback. This source has spent two years studying and scouting Stingley and firmly believes he is the #1 corner in the draft.

“The last two years — throw them out. He had the virus, he had the Lisfranc. If you get 90-95% of what he was (in 2019) he’s a really good corner.”

“I love Stingley. He has better movement skills than (Sauce) Gardner. He’s instinctive. He has god-given skills. Explosive. He’s been around it his whole life. If he came out as a freshman he would’ve been the top cornerback in the draft.”

The highly touted Jeff Okudah was taken #3 overall in 2020 — so that’s how highly Stingley was rated after his freshman season.

“He’s wired perfectly” the source added, noting there were no character concerns and citing his football background (his grandfather is Darryl Stingley and his father also played).

I asked what was a likely draft range and was told Sauce Gardner will be the first corner taken but the source said if he was in charge of a top-10 pick and his first two options among the O-liners & D-liners were gone, he’d rush to draft Stingley.

Not everyone in the league will necessarily share this opinion, of course. Positional need always plays a part and even teams with a high grade on Stingley might go in a different direction to fill a particular hole.

With all of this talk of him dropping deep into the teens, however, this is a perspective worth hearing. Even if he doesn’t go quite as early as his 2019 season promised — the chances are he won’t fall as far as some think. Just as the quarterbacks likely won’t go as people are suggesting now.

For what it’s worth, the source I spoke to felt Clemson’s Andrew Booth was the third best cornerback.

I wrote more about Stingley here. If the Seahawks want to take a shot for greatness with their top pick, he could be on their radar. If the top pass rushers are off the board, I still think Stingley is a strong possibility if they stay put.

Earlier today I was on 710 Seattle Sports with Jake & Stacy. If you missed it, check it out here:

If you enjoy the content on Seahawks Draft Blog then please consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…

Become a Patron!

Before getting into the piece — please don’t forget to listen to the Shelby Harris interview from earlier today (please share it if you can).

I’ve re-posted it at the bottom of this article.

— I think the Seahawks will take the best offensive or defensive lineman with their first pick. I don’t think they’ll target a quarterback in this class at #9. Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley could also be options but ultimately I think they’ll plan to build through the trenches.

— I think the top realistic target is Jermaine Johnson at #9. He fits what the Seahawks like — he ran a 1.5 10-yard split and he has fantastic hands to disengage and disrupt. He’s quick to the edge and plays with intensity and violence. He has good length and size. He’s a potential heart-and-soul type who can help shape the identity of the team for the next few years. I just don’t think he lasts to #9, unfortunately. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Seattle’s ‘Plan A’ is Jermaine Johnson.

— If Johnson is gone and they do move down, trading down from #9 and then moving up from #40 feels distinctly possible.

— I would anticipate an early run on pass rushers and offensive linemen. Without the Ja’Marr Chase types and quarterbacks to fill the top of the board, I think teams in the top-10 will settle on getting one of the best pass rushers, pass protectors or cornerbacks. The premium positions.

— If a situation emerges where the top four pass rushers, Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu and Sauce Gardner are off the board (as expected) — I think it’ll come down to either taking a shot on Derek Stingley Jr or trading down. I really like the prospect of Stingley and with his pro-day tomorrow, he has a chance to repair his stock. Remember — he ran a 4.30 at SPARQ and jumped a 42 inch vertical. I wrote more about Stingley here.

— Potential trade partners include the Baltimore Ravens (who appear enamoured with Trevor Penning) and the LA Chargers (heavily linked to Jordan Davis but also a possible suitor for an offensive tackle). The Saints could also be an outside bet — or any other team seeking to draft a receiver with the Jets at #10 possibly targeting the position.

— Carolina could also have serious interest in moving down. Contrary to most national mocks, I don’t think they’ll draft a quarterback. The Head Coach Matt Rhule appears to be in a lame-duck season and Scott Fitterer the GM will be thinking longer term. They don’t have a pick in rounds two or three currently. Trading down — perhaps as far as the late teens or 20’s — could net the Panthers an extra 2023 first rounder and a day two selection this year. Then, they could still get an offensive tackle (Abraham Lucas? Tyler Smith?) and have the stock to pursue quarterbacks in 12 months time when Fitterer possibly has his own hand-picked Head Coach in place.

— It’s worth remembering that Scot McCloughan said three quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round but all three will carry third round grades. There will be reaches at the position (as usual) but that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily go in the top-10. None of the quarterbacks in this draft are ready to start quickly.

— I sense teams with bridge quarterbacks (New Orleans, Pittsburgh) and teams with established ageing starters (Tennessee) will be in the QB market in round one because they can afford to sit a player and let him develop. Those three teams are also not expecting to be picking in the top-10 next year, with a realistic shot at the great 2023 quarterback class. I think the teams picking in the top-10 are simply in a very different place. If they draft a quarterback in that range there will pressure for that player to start quicker than he’s ready.

— What about Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt? I really like both players. However, the Seahawks have significantly bolstered their defensive front before the draft. It’s rare for a team to draft a ‘two-down nose tackle of the future’ and while I think Wyatt has tremendous potential as a dynamic interior rusher — I think edge rush and the offensive line will probably be the early focus.

— If the Seahawks do move down into the teens, they would be well placed to add a second-tier pass rusher or a plug-and-play offensive lineman. Zion Johnson has everything they look for — superb explosive testing results (ninth most explosive lineman to enter the league since 2016), he ran a 4.4 short shuttle and he has a perfectly proportionate frame with 34 inch arms. Pete Carroll kind of let the cat out of the bag that Gabe Jackson might be on the way out when he said he was in a competition with Phil Haynes. Drafting Johnson, who some call the best guard to enter the NFL since Quenton Nelson, would also allow you to move Damien Lewis back to right guard. I don’t think Johnson will go later than New England at #21.

— I’m not sure whether the Seahawks would make two high picks on the interior offensive line. However, Carroll’s glowing praise for Austin Blythe’s wrestling skills and his statement on trying a smaller center set off huge alarm bells for me. Tyler Linderbaum was an exceptional High School wrestler and he has an almost identical frame to Blythe. Let’s also remember that Blythe is a clear draft hedge, just as he was in Kansas City last year before they drafted Creed Humphrey. With recent reports from Tony Pauline suggesting Linderbaum could fall into round two, he’s one to watch. I said earlier that Plan A could be Jermaine Johnson at #9. To take it a step further, Plan A might be Johnson + Linderbaum.

— Personally I wouldn’t have any problem at all with double-dipping on the interior O-line. If you want to play Seattle’s brand of offense, why not try to be great in the interior? This isn’t a great tackle class but the options inside are impressive. There are no guarantees, of course, but Johnson-Linderbaum-Lewis is an exciting trio.

— What about tackle, where they have two gaping holes? Surely, at some point, they will sign someone. Duane Brown remains available, as does Brandon Shell. Reportedly Rasheed Walker is taking a visit to Seattle. He’s an accomplished talent with inconsistent play and a lack of testing results. Drafting him in the middle rounds to develop behind a returning Brown would make sense. It’s a good use of an official visit. Walker plays like he needs a rocket up his arse. It’s a chance to find out if he’s the right fit in terms of drive and character.

— Alternate O-line targets could include Trevor Penning, Abraham Lucas, Cam Jurgens, Cole Strange, Alec Lindstrom, Zach Tom, Tyler Smith and Logan Bruss. There are other good options too. As regulars know, I have a hard time imagining them taking Charles Cross in round one — an air-raid left tackle who doesn’t run block, jumped a 26 inch vertical and didn’t have much in the way of agility testing to compensate for it.

— The fact they haven’t added even a draft hedge of note at linebacker, plus Shelby Harris mentioning earlier that it’s an important position in Vic Fangio’s defense, makes me think it’s incredibly likely they will draft a linebacker on day two — probably with #40 or #41. That’s a real sweet-spot in terms of positional value. The key names that stand out for me are Channing Tindall, Leo Chanel and Quay Walker.

— The Seahawks need another running back and pick #72 screams ‘Dameon Pierce’. He has the same kind of attitude, energy and aggression as Thomas Rawls and he has the size, explosive traits and ability to run through contact. Seattle loves that. I think Zamir White could be an alternative due to his grit, physical power, quick acceleration to exploit gaps and finishing ability.

— If they don’t take a pass rusher at #9 they might need to wait until round three and beyond where there should be a cluster of developmental rotational players — such as Nik Bonitto, Dominique Robinson, Jeffery Gunter, Amare Barno, DeAngelo Malone, Christopher Allen and possibly Kyron Johnson and Tyreke Smith. There’s no further update on Adam Anderson’s legal case.

— I don’t think they’ll rush the quarterback position. They didn’t in 2010-12. I don’t see why they would now, in this class. I think the only way they’ll do it is if the right player falls to them in round two. Otherwise, I think they’ll wait until day three and consider Kaleb Eleby (who I interviewed yesterday) or Jack Coan. The other possibility, of course, is that they add Baker Mayfield to the competition for a late round pick.

— I think everything’s on the table with D.K. Metcalf but I believe the reports saying the Seahawks plan to keep him. I think it all comes down to whether or not someone makes a mind-blowing offer before the draft — such as the Jets offering #10 + #38. Otherwise, I think he’ll just stay in Seattle and they’ll talk contract after the draft.

— Some final thoughts. I certainly think the cost of the Uchenna Nwosu hedge is a big hint that they perhaps don’t think the top pass rushers will last to #9. I do think they will target the trenches early. I think their top pick will be the best O-liner or D-liner available on their board — possibly after a trade down. I think Austin Blythe is clearly a hedge and that we might see Gabe Jackson depart after the draft. I’m almost certain they will draft a running back quite early — although part of me also wonders if they call the Giants about Saquon Barkley. I think a quarterback competition will be the key this year, rather than a big splash at the position in the draft. Carroll saying having picks next year will influence decisions in this draft was, for me, another tell.

Shelby Harris interview

Please listen to the interview because Harris was on top form and will quickly become a fan favourite. Also check out the other recent interviews with Kaleb Eleby, Mike Florio, Jim Leavitt and Scot McCloughan.

Today I had the great pleasure of interviewing Seahawks defensive tackle Shelby Harris. You are going to love listening to him speak.

Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s interview with Kaleb Eleby too or last weeks conversation with Mike Florio.

You can listen via YouTube, Spotify or Apple below. Please subscribe, share on other forums/sites and help spread the word.

Today I spoke with Kaleb Eleby for ‘The Rebuild’ podcast. We discussed his pre-draft process, the chances of reuniting with Dee Eskridge in Seattle and much more.

You can watch below on YouTube, Spotify and Apple. Please subscribe to the channels and where possible leave a like or review to help spread the word.

This week I joined Brandan Schulze on the Seahawkers Podcast to discuss the current state of the team and the draft: