In his latest article of draft insider notes, friend of the blog Tony Pauline had this to say about the Seahawks:

Word is there’s a very real possibility the Seattle Seahawks move into the back end of Round 1 and grab their quarterback of the future.

Staying on Seattle for a second, there have been a lot of mock drafts having them taking offensive tackle Trevor Penning with the ninth pick. And while many on the outside feel that’s a reach, league insiders say it’s a definite possibility the Seahawks go in that direction, and the choice makes sense. Penning’s stock has been moving north since the Senior Bowl, and I previously mentioned him as a potential choice for the Jets with the 10th pick.

It’s worth noting that in the same piece, Pauline touts the possibility of Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder going in the late first.

The talk about Penning also chimes with what we’ve been discussing on here. The simple fact is the Seahawks have a gaping hole at both tackle spots and Penning fits, typically, what they go for in terms of athletic profile.

It’s not what I would do personally. But it might be what they do.

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Improve the trenches
For all the investment at positions like safety and linebacker over the years, the old football cliché of winning in the trenches remains true. Creating a good offensive line and a threatening pass rush is a tried and tested way to win. Furthermore, it fits perfectly the style of football the Seahawks want to play. This happens to be a good draft for the trenches, so take advantage of it.

Don’t hole-fill
For a number of years now the Seahawks have band-aided some holes and then filled others in the draft. A clear hedge like Austin Blythe, on a one-year contract, isn’t a long term fix. If you get a chance to draft a fantastic center, go for it. Don’t take a lesser player because it fills a perceived hole you didn’t address with one of those short-term band-aids. The emphasis in this draft should be BPA with a leaning towards the O-line and D-line.

Build to be the kind of team you want to be
In 2010-2011 the intention was clear. They spent three high picks on the O-line. They traded for Marshawn Lynch. They signed Robert Gallery and brought in Breno Giacomini. They paid to keep Max Unger. They wanted to run the ball and run the ball well. Return to that approach this year. If you’re going to be that kind of team, create that kind of team. Even if you’re not a fan of that particular philosophy, it’s what Pete Carroll says he wants. And the people running this team have to build the team their way. So go for it.

Draft at least one Georgia defender
Every team should have this ambition. That’s how good they were in 2021. Draft multiple Georgia defenders if you can. They are winners, they are physical, they are freakishly athletic and they look good on tape.

Be prepared to shoot for the stars at #9
I want the Seahawks to really commit to the trenches as noted. However, the best offensive and defensive linemen probably aren’t going to last to your pick. If you can’t trade down for whatever reason, don’t settle. Draft someone you believe has the potential to be a star.

Be patient at quarterback
I’ve poured over this QB class for hours. I’ve studied virtually every game each of the top prospects played in 2021 (plus some of their 2020 games too). This isn’t the year to go chasing a quarterback. Kentucky’s Will Levis should be the target next year. Embrace what this is — a setting the table draft. Build the foundations for future success.

Sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick
Carroll and John Schneider love to say they pick for their team not the league. Which on paper is a fair approach. Yet often it does feel like they’ve overthought things. On a recent stream Jeff Simmons made a good point that if they’d just taken the ‘best available’ player on Mel Kiper’s big board they’d probably have had more success in round one over the years. Too often they’ve bypassed players who have ended up being as good as expected to fill needs or take what they’d call ‘their guys’. Scheme and ideals feature within every draft decision in every draft room. Sometimes, though, it’s OK just to say — ‘let’s draft him, he’s really good’.

You’re not going to solve every problem
By going into this draft without really bolstering the pass rush, without signing any offensive tackles, without doing anything to replace Bobby Wagner and by not really doing much at quarterback — there’s too much to do. For all the bluster about ‘competing’ and expecting to win, we can all see what 2022 is going to be in all likelihood. It’s fine to talk the talk about competing but please — make decisions with the long term in mind.

An unsexy draft is OK
Trading down, selecting Zion Johnson, then trading up, selecting Tyler Linderbaum, then taking the best defensive player at #41 before going and getting a good running back, such as Dameon Pierce in round three, might not be a collection of picks that have Seahawks fans racing online to express their excitement. However, that for me would be perfectly acceptable. Feel free to subtract a name for Abraham Lucas or Cam Jurgens. If a top pass rusher falls to #9 (they won’t) then pivot and don’t look a gift-horse in the mouth. However, coming out of this draft with the ability to bully from the interior and make plays in the front seven of your defense is fine by me. It’s a platform to keep building and you’d be drafting good players who can create the identity you want.

Create something to hang your hat on
What do the Seahawks do well at the moment? What are they known for on the field? This is why I’d like to see a focussed commitment to either creating a brilliant, dominant running game through the trenches or loading up on defense. At least then you can say — this is what we’re trying to be known for. Now let’s make it happen.

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As usual, some thoughts before getting into the mock…

— Listening to Pete Carroll and John Schneider earlier, it felt like they used their press conference to emphasise their desire to trade down. Tony Pauline mentioned to us yesterday that league sources have told him the Seahawks prefer to move down (which would suggest they’ve put the word out to other teams). It won’t be a surprise if an aim is to get as many picks as possible in this deep draft.

— Increasingly I think O-line will be the first pick. The two gaping holes at tackle feel like a tell. They started their initial build by drafting a tackle (Russell Okung).

— Trevor Penning, like it or not, fits the Seahawks. I wrote about it in more detail here and here. He’s an explosive tester, which they like. He’s an incredible athlete. His size/length profile matches Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein in LA. They might trade down a few spots first but I just get the sense, as of today, that he might be their top pick.

— The other thought I keep coming back to is whether Pete Carroll will just be so enamoured by the blue-chip potential of Derek Stingley Jr. Is it an intriguing, tempting opportunity for a coach like Carroll? And after years of singling out their inability to pick as early as #9 — will they take the chance to draft a player who typically wouldn’t be available to them? Plus there’s Carroll’s connection to Ed Orgeron. It certainly feels very likely he’s leant on his contacts this off-season (including, of course, the Kiffin’s at Ole Miss).

— John Schneider mentioning the ‘Jake Locker/Christian Ponder’ QB class of 2011 felt like a comparison to this QB class (even though it wasn’t a direct comparison, he was talking about quarterbacks going earlier than expected). If it was an accidentally on purpose comparison, he’d be right to make it.

— This time I’m only doing a first round projection. I need the weekend to think about round two. I didn’t want to over complicate things with loads of trades either. I will probably do two more mock drafts which will include a full Seahawks seven round projection and my final mock for Huddle Report scoring.

#1 Jacksonville — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#6 Carolina — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#7 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#8 Atlanta — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#9 Houston (v/SEA) — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#10 New York Jets — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#11 Washington — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#12 Minnesota — Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
#13 Seattle (v/HOU) — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#14 Baltimore — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#15 Philadelphia — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#16 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#17 LA Chargers — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#18 Philadelphia — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#19 New Orleans — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Pittsburgh — Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
#21 New England — Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
#22 Green Bay — Drake London (WR, USC)
#23 Arizona — Tyler Smith (T, Tulsa)
#24 Dallas — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
#25 Buffalo — Quay Walker (LB, Georgia)
#26 Tennessee — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
#27 Tampa Bay — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
#28 Green Bay — Travis Jones (DT, Connecticut)
#29 Kansas City — Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
#30 Atlanta (v/KC) — Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
#31 Cincinnati — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#32 Detroit — Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)

Other notes

— I can’t decide whether the Seahawks are going to look at Tyler Linderbaum as someone they can’t leave the draft without or whether they’re just going to carry on rolling at center. The Rams have plugged guys in with their blocking scheme. The Seahawks might be prepared to do the same (although, as we’ve seen, they’ve had issues doing that in the past). Austin Blythe knows the calls. Yet the way they talked about his size and wrestling background just screamed ‘hedge for Linderbaum’. He is a five-star version of Blythe. So if you want that type of player, why wouldn’t you go up from #40 and ensure you get him?

— Equally if they do go O-line first it might be that they simply take the best two defensive players available at #40 and #41. The two best available defensive players could include Boye Mafe and Lewis Cine — who both had official visits to Seattle recently.

— Hosting Cine was interesting. Some of these late visits have been quite indicative over the years. It’s a hard sell to spend another high pick on a safety, given how much they’ve already splurged and the relative depth on the roster at the position. The Seahawks also had Damontae Kazee in for a visit, they’ve had a zoom meeting with Kyle Hamilton and they’ve had three other safety’s visit the VMAC. This article emphasises how Sean Desai used a lot of three-safety looks as defensive coordinator in Chicago. But you already have Ryan Neal and Marquise Blair. They must be doing all of this for a reason, though.

— For what it’s worth Cine is one of the 20 best players in the draft for me. He has 4.37 speed, he’s a forceful hitter and his read/react ability on the field is frankly sensational. He’s a player who had to grow up quickly after becoming a father at 17. He’s a tremendous talent. It’s just so hard to rally behind yet another high pick at safety. I can’t see how he would last to #40/41 either.

— I still think running back in round three. I still think it’ll be Dameon Pierce, too.

— I’d like to come out of this draft feeling really good about an area of the team. It’s why I’ve advocated for drafting Zion Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum. If nothing else you’d have a great interior O-line capable of delivering a terrific running game. That, to me, would be a building block. And it’s how you want to play. I fear instead they’ll try to fill holes and won’t come away with a unit to build around. I liked their early emphasis on the O-line in 2010/11. It produced mixed results but as we saw with the Cowboys recently — having a great O-line can produce. They had Tyron Smith of course but they also invested in Zack Martin and Travis Frederick. Smith isn’t in this draft. Martin and Frederick might be.

— Today was the first day I thought Duane Brown might not return to Seattle. When asked about his possible return, Schneider’s face was a picture. It seems he wants more than Seattle is willing to pay and we’ve been here before. We’ve seen this song and dance. It never ends well.

If you missed it yesterday check out my interview with Tony Pauline…

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A day on Twitter doesn’t go by without someone referencing ‘RAS’ — relative athletic score. Personally I don’t think a relative score matters. It’s useful for the absolute best, most complete testers to highlight their spectacular profiles. Apart from that, teams are not looking for an overall score for a prospect.

Specific tests matter for certain positions.

The Seahawks under Carroll and Schneider, for example, have very defined testing marks (and there’s cross-over to other teams). For example, virtually every tight end they’ve signed, drafted or traded for has excelled in the agility testing. This aligns with the best TE’s in the league excelling in the short shuttle and three cone. Their running backs all match a size/traits/style profile. With offensive linemen they’ve often focused on explosive traits.

With the O-liners, the explosive testing focus shouldn’t be surprising. If you are facing off against an opponent, 1v1, being more explosive is clearly going to give you an advantage. Explosion is defined by lower body power — highlighted by the vertical jump and broad jump, plus the bench press.

The bench press isn’t an ideal test to include here because it’s laughably out of place. It’s basically cardio for offensive linemen over 300lbs. The powerball toss or a one-rep max would be a better test. This is all we have though. Hopefully the league will get into 2022 soon and start doing what they already do at SPARQ.

The reason we established TEF (Trench Explosion Formula) was to try and discover trends within Seattle’s O-line picks and then identify potential draft selections. It’s been incredibly effective and useful over the years in that regard.

For a full breakdown of what the formula is and why we use it, click here. Essentially, any prospect scoring 3.00 or higher is an explosive athlete.

Here’s the formula we use:

1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF

It’s also helped us understand that this isn’t just a Seahawks thing. The league is focusing on explosive traits when it comes to offensive linemen. Some of the more head-scratching picks in recent years can be explained away by explosive testing results.

But is it the right thing to do?

For the most part — yes. The results, to be fair, are clear. The best offensive linemen in the NFL are typically explosive athletes.

Before we delve into this further let’s clarify a couple of things. Explosive testing is not a guarantee of success. There are plenty of explosive testers who amount to nothing in the NFL. The point is not to argue explosive traits equal a good player. The point is simply to highlight that a lot of the top offensive linemen are explosive, the league focuses a lot on explosive traits and the chances are the best offensive linemen from this class will come from the most explosive testers.

It’s also important to note that one of the most successful offensive linemen in recent years — David Bakhtiari — is not an explosive tester (2.68 TEF score). Bakhtiari didn’t test well in anything. It’s not a death sentence for your career. However, as we’ll see in a moment, he is an outlier. And you can’t use one big-time outlier to promote other bad testers. An outlier is an outlier.

So while some of the poorer TEF testers could well prove to be brilliant NFL players — we should at least acknowledge what the results say. Players like Bakhtiari are not common in the modern NFL.

I have done a couple of things for this article. I looked at the top-graded offensive linemen per PFF in the league and tallied their explosive testing results. I also collected their short shuttle, forty and 10-yard split times to see if there was any correlation or consistency with those marks too.

Let’s start with the top ranked offensive tackles. The first number is their TEF score. The second number is their short shuttle. The third number is their forty time. The fourth number is the 10-yard split.

Trent Williams
TEF — 3.11
SS — 4.63
40 — 4.88
10 — 1.70

Tyron Smith
TEF — 3.11
SS — 4.68
40 — 4.93
10 — 1.69

Jordan Mailata
N/A

Andrew Whitworth
TEF — 3.14
SS — 4.83
40 — 5.17
10 — 1.83

Kolton Miller
TEF — 3.31
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.67

Tristan Wirfs
TEF — 3.47
SS — 4.68
40 — 4.85
10 — 1.72

Ryan Ramczyk
TEF — N/A
SS — 4.82
40 — N/A
10 — N/A

Rashawn Slater
TEF — 3.40
SS — 4.45
40 — 4.88
10 — 1.68

Rob Havenstein
TEF — 2.36
SS — 4.87
40 — 5.46
10 — 1.88

Lane Johnson
TEF — 3.44
SS — 4.52
40 — 4.72
10 — 1.68

Elgton Jenkins
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.62
40 — 5.10
10 — 1.78

Charles Leno Jr
TEF — 2.71
SS — 4.40
40 — 5.25
10 — 1.81

Braden Smith
TEF — 3.52
SS — 4.77
40 — 5.22
10 — 1.79

Donovan Smith
TEF — 3.02
SS — 4.79
40 — 5.01
10 — 1.82

La’el Collins
TEF — 2.65
SS — 4.63
40 — 5.12
10 — 1.87

Of the top-15 graded offensive tackles in the NFL in 2021, only three failed to score a 3.00 in TEF (Charles Leno Jr, Rob Havenstein and La’el Collins). We don’t have testing results for Ryan Ramczyk or Jordan Mailata.

The average TEF score for the other 10 players is 3.25. Even if you include the three non-explosive scores — including Havenstein’s miserable 2.36 — the average TEF score is still 3.12. If you want to put in Bakhtiari’s 2.68 score too — the average only drops to 3.10.

The following players not included in PFF’s list also tested above 3.00 in TEF:

Garet Bolles
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.55
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.71

Terron Armstead
TEF — 3.38
SS — 4.72
40 — 4.71
10 — 1.68

Taylor Lewan
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.85
10 — 1.71

It’s easy to build an argument that among the best performing offensive linemen in the NFL currently, generally speaking they are not just explosive testers — but they are on average scoring well above the 3.00 mark.

People like Josh Norris have argued online for some years that short shuttle times are the determining factor for successful offensive linemen. The results are far less consistent here though.

I would argue a really impressive short shuttle time would be anything in the 4.5’s or faster. When you look at the list of top-graded offensive tackles from 2021, the average short shuttle time is a 4.65.

There are some really good marks such as Rashawn Slater’s 4.45, Charles Leno Jr’s 4.40 and Kolton Miller’s 4.49. Yet the best tackles in the NFL are generally not running ‘great’ short shuttles. Many of them are, instead, impressive explosive testers.

Leno Jr’s 4.40 could perhaps be used as an argument to explain why he personally has succeeded. He appears unique in that regard though — he isn’t explosive but he is a fantastic agility tester.

Bakhtiari, for example, only ran a 4.74 shuttle to go with his 2.68 TEF score.

What is perhaps surprising is how the forty times are consistently good among the top offensive tackles. The average is a 4.98 — even with Havenstein’s 5.46 included.

It’s perhaps indicative that explosive testing plus the athleticism that comes with a top forty time is something to pay attention to at tackle.

That’s hardly a major revelation is it? The NFL is a battle between the best athletes in the world and unsurprisingly, the especially athletic players are succeeding.

Looking at the 10-yard splits, a lot of the top tackles run in the 1.68-1.72 range. The average time of the names listed above is a 1.73. Take out Rob Havenstein’s ‘outlier’ performance and it drops to a 1.72.

Finally on tackles, if we go back nearly a decade there are some helpful examples. Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel went #1 and #2 in the 2013 draft. Fisher was a 3.16 TEF tester while Joeckel was only a 2.86. The explosive player succeeded, the non-explosive player flopped.

More recently, Mike McGlinchey has been a fairly disappointing top-10 pick as a non-explosive tester (2.73). However — Jake Matthews (2.79) and Jack Conklin (2.76) have had good careers despite not being explosive testers.

Now let’s look at PFF’s top performing guards:

Joel Bitonio
TEF — 3.02
SS — 4.44
40 — 4.97
10 — 1.78

Zack Martin
TEF — 2.92
SS — 4.59
40 — N/A
10 — N/A

Michael Onwenu
N/A

Shaq Mason
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.65
40 — 4.99
10 — 1.75

Wyatt Teller
TEF — 3.22
SS — 4.84
40 — 5.24
10 — 1.85

Chris Lindstrom
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.54
40 — 4.91
10 — 1.68

Ali Marpet
TEF — 3.09
SS — 4.47
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.71

Joe Thuney
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.54
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.71

Let’s also include the player many believe to be the best guard in the NFL, plus a highly drafted (and highly rated) player from the 2021 class:

Quenton Nelson
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.62
40 — N/A
10 — N/A

Alijah Vera-Tucker
TEF — 3.31
SS — 4.63
40 — 5.13
10 — 1.77

The average TEF score for this group is 3.09. Only one player — Zack Martin — scored below a 3.00 and he’s not exactly a mile away at 2.92.

Now let’s do the same thing with the short shuttle times. The average time is a 4.59 — hardly a notable average compared to what we see with the explosive testing.

The average forty time is a 5.02. It’s something we don’t really talk about much because linemen don’t have to run 40 yards very often. Yet the top performers at guard run well in the forty and they’re explosive.

The average 10-yard split is a 1.75 — slower than the tackles.

There is one big TEF outlier at guard. Brandon Scherff, one of the best players in recent years, only scored a 2.87. Again — not being an explosive tester doesn’t mean you’re destined to fail. It’s pretty clear though that the best performing guards and tackles in the NFL typically are explosive athletes.

Finally, let’s look at PFF’s three highest rated centers:

Creed Humphrey
TEF — 3.25
SS — 4.49
40 — 5.11
10 — 1.71

Corey Linsley
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.53
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.78

Jason Kelce
TEF — 3.00 (proj)
SS — 4.14
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.70

And here are four other noteworthy names:

J.C. Tretter
TEF — 3.05
SS — 4.69
40 — 5.09
10 — 1.75

Frank Ragnow
TEF — 3.29
SS — 4.51
40 — 4.99
10 — 1.74

Erik McCoy
TEF — 3.05
SS — 4.62
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.72

Mitch Morse
TEF — 3.45
SS — 4.50
40 — 5.14
10 — 1.86

The average TEF score here is a 3.18. The average short shuttle time (4.50) is heavily influenced by Jason Kelce’s remarkable 4.14. Take it out and the average is a 4.56. So again — explosive testing results prove to be consistent among the top players at center.

The forty times again show up too. The average among the list at center is a 5.02 — the same as the guards. The 10-yard split average (1.75) also matches the guards.

There are some other notable numbers to consider. Ryan Kelly in Indianapolis is only a 2.80 TEF tester. He ran a 4.59 short shuttle and a 5.03 forty. So he is an average athlete and not explosive.

Ryan Jensen is only a 2.68 TEF tester. He ran a decent 4.56 short shuttle and a 5.23 forty. You could argue his agility testing works towards explaining his success (I might argue playing with Tom Brady has also helped).

Rodney Hudson is one of the worst testers to succeed at the next level. His TEF score is bad (2.50) but somehow not as bad as his short shuttle (4.96) or forty (5.31).

David Andrews scored a 2.97 in TEF — meaning he is generally explosive. His short shuttle (4.78) and forty (5.12) were below average.

If we add all these numbers to the average for TEF at center it still comes out at a 3.02. So even the bad testers don’t really influence the results.

It ends up being pretty clear. Although all won’t succeed, the chances are the best offensive linemen from this upcoming draft class will come from the list below — the most explosive athletes:

Zion Johnson (G)
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.46
40 — 5.18
10 — 1.74

Cole Strange (G/C)
TEF — 3.42
SS — 4.50
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.71

Bernhard Raimann (G)
TEF — 3.37
SS — 4.49
40 — 5.05
10 — 1.70

Cam Jurgens (C)
TEF — 3.34
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.92
10 — 1.71

Zach Tom (C)
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.47
40 — 4.94
10 — 1.63

Matt Waletzko (T)
TEF — 3.15
SS — 4.59
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.70

Tyler Linderbaum (C)
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.38
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.71

Trevor Penning (T)
TEF — 3.03
SS — 4.62
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.65

Logan Bruss (T/G)
TEF — 3.08
SS — 4.55
40 — 5.32
10 — 1.76

Luke Wattenburg (C)
TEF — 3.06
SS — 4.57
40 — 5.20
10 — 1.72

Abraham Lucas (T)
TEF — 2.97
SS — 4.40
40 — 4.92
10 — 1.69

Here’s a reminder of the average testing results for the top performers in the NFL so you can make positional comparisons:

Tackle
TEF — 3.12
SS — 4.65
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.73

Guard
TEF — 3.09
SS — 4.59
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.75

Center
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.56
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.75

Notable among this group — all but Logan Bruss ran an above average 10-yard split (and he missed out by 0.01 seconds).

Don’t be surprised if players like Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross don’t live up to their lofty media expectations and the names above outshine them in terms of NFL careers.

Ekwonu ran a good forty (4.93) and as we’ve discovered — that might be more indicative than we think. He ran a 1.72 10-yard split. However, nothing else about his profile stands out. He’s a 2.90 TEF tester which is good not great. His short shuttle was only a 4.73. For me he’s best served kicking into guard, as Zack Martin did. They have similar testing results. I think Ekwonu can be a terrific guard.

Cross also ran a good forty (4.95) but he’s only a 2.84 TEF tester and thus, not an explosive player. He ran a 4.61 short shuttle and a 1.75 split. The simple fact is that if he succeeds in the NFL we’ll be talking about him as another outlier.

Looking at the the explosive testers above, I would suggest the following:

— Zion Johnson has every chance to go in the same range as Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14 overall) and could end up being one of the best players to emerge from this draft

— Cole Strange, Cam Jurgens and Zach Tom have every chance to excel irrespective of where they are taken

— Tyler Linderbaum might not fit every scheme due to his size but he has the physical makeup of a top performing center

— Trevor Penning — with his explosive testing and fast forty — has every chance to go in the top-10 and could easily go before Charles Cross, potentially as the third lineman off the board (Carolina at #6?) because his testing results match the best OT’s in the league

— If Bernhard Raimann wasn’t a 25-year-old rookie with short arms he’d likely be a very, very high pick — but he needs a major technical re-tool and the age/length works against him

— Abraham Lucas deserves a lot more attention given he tests well across the board

Here’s a list of players who did not test well (an understatement in some cases) but they’re still being discussed as high picks:

Kenyon Green (G)
TEF — 2.46
SS — 5.12
40 — 5.24
10 — 1.76

Jamaree Salyer (G)
TEF — 2.67
SS — 4.70
40 — N/A
10 — N/A

Daniel Faalele (T)
TEF — 2.50
SS — 5.06
40 — 5.60
10 — 2.04

Tyler Smith (T)
TEF — 2.73
SS — 4.65
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.70

Darian Kinnard (T/G)
TEF — 2.54
SS — 4.96
40 — 5.31
10 — 1.78

As we draw closer to the start of the 2022 NFL draft I’m more convinced than ever that the Seahawks should set out to build an explosive, athletic offensive line.

With three high picks they have an opportunity to make that happen.

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The Seahawks have developed a reputation for making ‘surprise’ early picks. For the most part they’ve taken players in the range they were expected to go but occasionally they’ve made a selection that has left fans and media gasping.

Jason La Canfora wrote an article a few days ago reflecting on the top-10 picks. Here’s what he wrote about Seattle:

If both of the top quarterbacks are gone by the time the Seahawks pick at 9, several execs told me they believe the odds of a trade down are very high. The Vikings are clearly in the market for a top corner, and jumping up to 9 would likely allow then to secure one of the top two (Gardner or Derek Stingley, Jr), and Seattle at 12 could very likely still land one of the top pass rushers on the board plus keep securing much needed additional draft capital (even after the Russell Wilson trade). It’s a potential draft scenario to keep an eye on.

I don’t believe for a second that the Seahawks are hoping that a quarterback ‘falls’ to them at #9. Thus it brings into doubt the validity of the whole projection from JLC.

However, he’s the second person (after Tony Pauline) touting the likelihood of a trade down.

As noted a few times — I think the Seahawks made the Wilson trade feeling like there was a good chance a pass rusher would be there at #9. However, both Travon Walker and Jermaine Johnson have likely propelled themselves into the top-five.

It’s possible they pivot to a cornerback and selecting Derek Stingley Jr or Sauce Gardner would net them a really good player. We also know, however, that this team hasn’t drafted a cornerback higher than the late third round in the Pete Carroll era.

So when JLC mentions trading down and being in a position to ‘very likely still land one of the top pass rushers on the board’ — what does he mean?

It’s a tricky one to work out. Both George Karlaftis and Boye Mafe are really good players but both had sub-33 inch arms at the combine. Arnold Ebiketie supposedly ran a 1.69 10-yard split at the combine. David Ojabo has a serious injury that will keep him out for the 2022 season.

It’s difficult to look at this group and say definitively — yes, that’s a Seahawks pass rusher.

The player who does fit the bill is Ole Miss’ Sam Williams.

If they trade down and take him in round one it would be a shocking pick. He’s generally being mocked in the second or even third round. However, he has a lot of the things the Seahawks like.

He ran a 4.46 forty and a blistering 1.52 10-yard split at the combine. Those are elite times for a 261lbs pass rusher. He has 33 1/8 inch arms. His pass rush win percentage is 19.5% — higher than Ojabo (19%), Jermaine Johnson (14.2%) and Travon walker (10.8%). He had 12.5 sacks in 2021 — breaking a single-season school record. He needs to get stronger in order to finish better but that’s easily rectifiable.

He also played for Lane and Monte Kiffin. Lane was on Rich Eisen’s show last week and highlighted Williams as a player with immense talent for the NFL if he goes to the right home, with the right kind of guidance.

Given he volunteered Williams’ name in that interview, he’s probably speaking highly of him to coaches. We know Carroll’s spoken to his old friends about Ole Miss’ players.

Williams is a terrific pass rusher with the lean and quickness to trouble pro-tackles. He’s twitchy in the way top-tier sack specialists tend to be.

The Seahawks clearly identified pass rusher as their biggest need this off-season and with respect to Uchenna Nwosu — that situation hasn’t been properly fixed.

It’s possible they wait until #40/#41 and see what remains of the class. It’s equally possible they signed Nwosu because they felt less confident about drafting a pass rusher and now intend to draft a Michael Clemons type later on, while perhaps re-signing Carlos Dunlap down the line.

Not doing anything at offensive tackle also gives a strong indicator they intend to draft one early — which is why we’ve talked a lot about Trevor Penning.

Yet if their intention is to draft a pass rusher first, just keep Williams in your mind. They’ve had a tendency under this regime to zone in on positions and select ‘their guys’. It’s possible Williams is one of ‘their guys’.

I don’t think it’d be the worst pick in the world frankly. He clearly has a lot of talent and would provide the Seahawks with a really dynamic collection of edge rushers. Watch him against one of the most overrated players in the draft (Charles Cross) and see what he does to him. He has him on toast.

Would it be unnecessarily risky and forced though?

This is why I’ve got no problem moving down a few spots and taking, say, Zion Johnson. This is a big rebuild, regardless of what anyone says. Plugging in players with long-term potential to be building blocks who tick every box — character, performance, physical profile, leadership — there’s nothing wrong with that.

I’m totally comfortable coming away with Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum as the first two picks and simply saying — great — we’ve sorted the interior O-line for the next 8-10 years. Now let’s run the ball brilliantly.

I’m also very comfortable drafting a player like Stingley Jr at #9. Why not try and get a blue-chip player at a premium position?

The Seahawks tend to have their ways and means though and there’s no getting away from the fact that Williams — with his testing profile, production, frame and Kiffin-connection — could be the type of player they end up drafting a lot earlier than many think after trading down from #9.

Imagine a scenario like this in the top-eight:

#1 Jacksonville — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#2 Detroit — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#3 Houston — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#7 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#8 Atlanta — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)

(Note — I want to keep saying this — if Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu come off the board before #6 — I think the Panthers could potentially take Trevor Penning and not Charles Cross. Penning, for me, is a better prospect with far more upside. Certain teams might like Cross based on scheme and fit but he is vastly overrated by the media)

With both of the top cornerbacks on the board, we could see teams like Minnesota and Houston scrambling to move up. There’d also be a potential desperate push to get the second receiver given Garrett Wilson is off the board. The options at offensive tackle are running out too.

This is why Seattle’s #9 pick could be the prime ‘trade down’ spot in this class.

They could comfortably drop into the teens, acquire another day-two pick (and possibly some 2023 stock) then take a pass rusher with the profile they’ve typically sought over the years.

It’d be controversial and I’m not predicting it will happen — more suggesting Williams is a name to monitor. But you have to admit — it’s the kind of thing they’ve done in the past.

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Let me be clear — this list is based on historical trends in terms of physical traits and playing style. You could add all sorts of names and make a case. In this deep draft you could probably write 50 names down.

I wanted this to be a shorter, defined group. The ones who clearly ‘fit’ physically, fit the philosophy and play positions they’ve typically drafted.

For example, you could plausibly say Sauce Gardner’s size and length or Derek Stingley Jr’s lofty recruiting rating match Seattle and Pete Carroll’s desires. However — the simple fact is they haven’t invested in the cornerback position early. In fact, they’ve spent very little draft stock on cornerbacks over the years.

There are also players who fit in a lot of areas but not in the complete profile. Boye Mafe, for example, has shorter than ideal arm length. So does Devante Wyatt. George Karlaftis doesn’t have the frame of previous Seahawks’ picks at defensive end. Michael Clemons flashes in the same way Darrell Taylor did — but he lacks the testing profile to rubber stamp completely. Abraham Lucas is a tremendous talent but are they looking for bigger tackles moving forward?

I could add a whole bunch of receivers to the list. They love 4.4 runners (or faster) and there are a load in that range this year. However — increasingly it seems like nobody is going to make the kind of offer to tempt the Seahawks to part with D.K. Metcalf. Having used their top pick on a receiver just a year ago, this might end up being a position pushed to later in the draft (or UDFA) — especially given the depth of options available.

I made this list with historical trends and philosophy at the forefront of everything. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t adapt as they launch a new era for the team. It’s also true they’ve never been in a position to draft a player like Stingley Jr before — so this could easily be a year where new ground is broken.

However, based on what we do know, these are the players I think we can say with some degree of confidence ‘fit’ the Seahawks.

Apologies to regulars who will have read some of these notes before. I don’t want to be too repetitive but we’re in the home straight now.

Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
He ticks every single box the Seahawks look for. His 3.33 TEF score means he’s the ninth most explosive offensive linemen to enter the league since 2016. His score is comparable to Russell Okung (3.37) — the highest pick in the Carroll era to date. Johnson also has 34 inch arms and a wonderfully proportioned frame. He’s the best-looking guard prospect I can recall since starting this blog in 2008. He also ran a ridiculous 4.46 short shuttle. Then you stick on the tape and where does he excel? In the running game. He is an aggressive, physical run-blocker. If the Seahawks want to get back to the Carroll brand of football, Johnson would be ideal both athletically and philosophically. The aim should be for this team to be great in the trenches. Selecting him early might not be exciting or flashy but putting Johnson at left guard to replace the spent force that is Gabe Jackson and returning Damien Lewis to the right guard spot would set up the Seahawks to possess a tremendous run-blocking O-line.

Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
In Carroll’s own words they signed Austin Blythe to try a different body type at center. They also admired his wrestling background. Carroll might as well have been wearing an Iowa Hawkeyes T-shirt as he uttered the sentence. Linderbaum is basically the 5-star version of Blythe with an identical body and an even more impressive wrestling background. Plenty of teams will look at the size and lack of length and deem he simply isn’t a fit for their scheme. Carroll has spelled out, though, that Linderbaum is exactly what they’re looking for. In the right scheme, he has a chance to be an all-pro. His ability to wrestle and combat at the POA is attractive and second only to his ability to reach to the second level and deliver crucial, run-springing blocks. His testing profile also fits the Seahawks. He’s explosive with a projected 3.07 TEF score and he ran a 4.38 short shuttle and a 4.98 forty. I know it probably won’t happen but the Seahawks could do so much for their identity to create a Zion Johnson/Tyler Linderbaum/Damien Lewis treble in the interior O-line.

Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
The Rams’ blocking scheme — which the Seahawks appear to be leaning on — loves size at tackle. The Seahawks traditionally love size and explosive traits. Therefore, Penning is an easy projection to match with Seattle. He’s a 3.03 TEF tester with a 6-7, 330lbs frame. He ran a 4.89 forty to further illustrate his athletic potential. He basically has the same profile as LA’s tackles for the last few years — Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein. The media will tell you he’s a big-time tough-guy too but I’ve been sceptical about that since the Senior Bowl. I think he tried too hard to portray that image. There were plenty of cheap shots and acts of aggression after bad reps. There were also many examples of poor technique and getting beaten far too easily. Thus, he’s a likely project who might have to settle for playing straight-on as a right guard. At best, in year one, he’s a right tackle (a possible permanent position for him). Nevertheless, he has the physical attributes the Seahawks have been attracted to in an offensive lineman.

Cam Jurgens (C, Nebraska)
If the Seahawks are looking for a different type of center, Jurgens also fits the bill. He’s a little bit taller than Linderbaum (6-3) but he’s still 290lbs. He does have great length though (33.5 inch arms) and his testing profile was remarkable. His 3.34 TEF score makes him the eighth most explosive lineman to enter the league since 2016. He ran a 4.92 forty and a 4.49 short shuttle. Calling his playing style ‘aggressive’ doesn’t do it justice. He is just an incredible, tone-setting prospect who was underrated for months and he still doesn’t get enough credit. I think Linderbaum provides the perfect profile for the type of center Seattle wants but Jurgens isn’t far behind. He probably fits more teams with his length. Yet for the Seahawks he has the size, physical profile and length they’ve often sought.

Logan Bruss (T, Wisconsin)
Bruss doesn’t get much national attention but there are a few reasons to think he could be on Seattle’s radar. He’s explosive with a 3.08 TEF score. He has experience at right tackle and guard. He has enormous 11 inch hands which he uses to strike, control and bully defenders. He has reasonable arm length (33 1/8 inches). He ran a 4.55 short shuttle at 309lbs. He’s aggressive and competitive and you can imagine the Seahawks drafting him and potentially giving him a chance to play inside or out. The Rams have two starting guards who both played tackle in college and have similar size to Bruss. He’s the type of versatile O-liner they’ve typically looked for.

Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
When the Seahawks made the Russell Wilson trade I highly suspect they did so imagining Johnson as a great option at #9. Perhaps he was even Plan A? Yet his stock has risen and risen and now it seems almost certain he will go between picks #4-7. It’s a shame because he has so much of what Seattle likes. He ran a 1.59 10-yard split (anything in the 1.5’s is intriguing). He has 34 inch arms. He wins with his hands not just athleticism. He can defend the run at a high level. He owned the Senior Bowl. He plays with a level of aggression and intensity that would’ve helped create the next identity for this team. They want another Darrell Taylor and Johnson was the man to fill the void. What could’ve been, eh?

Sam Williams (DE, Ole Miss)
In trying to find alternatives to Jermaine Johnson, most of the players have something that just forces you to question the fit in Seattle. With Boye Mafe it’s arm length, with George Karlaftis it’s frame, length and 10-yard split. Arnold Ebiketie’s split is a 1.69 reportedly. Ouch. Williams is the one who ticks the most boxes — speed, length, size. He has a great frame at 6-3 and 261lbs. He ran a blistering 1.52 10-yard split and a 4.46 forty. He has the arm length at 33 1/8 inches. His agility testing is reasonable (4.36 short shuttle). He has the athletic profile that the Seahawks look for. Then you see on tape an ability to win off the edge with quickness, lean and bend. He generally looks like the type of pass rusher they covet. I listened to Lane Kiffin on with Rich Eisen this week. Kiffin was asked for an Ole Miss player not named Matt Corral who we need to keep an eye on for the next level. Kiffin singled out Williams, noting he could be special in the right program. We know Carroll and the Kiffin’s are close. It won’t be a surprise at all if the Seahawks take Williams in round two.

Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
If I had to put money on anyone being a key target for the Seahawks, it’d be Pierce. He screams ‘Seattle running back’. The size, the explosive traits, the mentality, the running style. He provides a similar energy and tenacity to Thomas Rawls but on a frame more akin to Frank Gore. He slimmed down for workouts and was listed at around 5-10 and 218lbs which is right in Seattle’s range — but he probably plays in the 220’s. He jumped a 34.5 inch vertical which was a little lower than expected but still fine. It’s the running style that stands out. He drives through attempted tackles and gains yards after contact. He finishes every run and helps energise team mates with his attitude. His balance and strength combined with sharp cuts and a burst of speed make you want to put him in a Seahawks draft cap right now. I get the sense the only thing stopping him landing in Seattle in round three will be somebody else snapping him off the board.

Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
We’re now on to the linebacker portion of the article. Frankly, I could list a whole bunch of names here but I’m going to limit it to the two players who tick the most boxes. The Seahawks have typically targeted great athletes at linebacker (testing well in the forty, vertical etc) or they’ve gone after players running in the 4.00-4.10 range in the short shuttle. The likes of Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven and Kevin Pierre-Louis all excelled in the short shuttle and it appears to be a drill they focus on a lot at linebacker. Let’s start with Tindall. He ran a 4.47 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and reportedly ran anything from a 4.07 to a 4.18 short shuttle. He flies to the ball-carrier and made one of the plays of the Senior Bowl game on special teams. His personality is infectious. It’s easy to imagine him being drafted to compete with Cody Barton.

Troy Andersen (LB, Montana State)
Andersen is a quite remarkable prospect — having played offense and defense in college and excelling at both. He ran a 4.42 forty at 243lbs at the combine with a stunning 1.49 10-yard split. He then jumped a 36 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad. At pro-day he added a 4.07 short shuttle and a 6.77 three cone. In terms of pure traits, he’s off the charts. There are players in this draft better equipped to start quickly and provide impact. Quay Walker, who could go in round one, for example — or Devin Lloyd. Yet nobody has the athletic ceiling of Andersen. It could be that he’s always a better athlete than player but his performance at the Senior Bowl will allay some fears. The short shuttle in particular makes me want to single him out here.

Logan Hall (DT, Houston)
The Seahawks have consistently targeted players who run well in the short shuttle on the defensive line too. In particular tackles and inside/out rushers. It’s worth noting Hall only has 32 3/4 inch arms. Provided they’re willing to overlook that quarter of an inch — Hall ran a 4.44 short shuttle at 283lbs. That’s impressive. And while he plays too high on tape and needs to work out a plan for his pass-rush (too often he appeared a bit reckless and haphazard — and that showed at the Senior Bowl too) there’s no doubting his potential to be a major disruptive force if given time. His pass rush win rate among interior players was way ahead of the rest of the class (16.2%) and his run stopping percentage (9.2%) is also reasonably high. He’d be well suited to eventually take over from Quinton Jefferson. The length is the only question mark but he couldn’t be closer to ticking that box.

Percy Butler (S, Louisiana)
This one was easy to end the list with — especially since the Seahawks had him in for an official visit recently. Butler is an absolute demon on special teams. I can imagine the Seahawks drafting him for that alone — but the fact he ran a 4.36 forty helps too. You could put together a highlights video of his hits on special teams. As with Dameon Pierce — it feels like the only thing stopping him being in Seattle is another team jumping the queue.

Final thoughts

As I was putting this list together and I couldn’t help but feel, yet again, that this is a draft to start building your trenches rather than trying to fill specific holes. If you came out of this class with Zion Johnson, Tyler Linderbaum, Dameon Pierce and Logan Bruss I’d consider that a victory. Throw in a pass rusher and/or linebacker and you’re moving in the right direction in terms of creating the kind of team you want to be.

I completely appreciate that positional value has to play a part and thus, the above likely won’t happen. Gabe Jackson and Austin Blythe are both highly replaceable though. The likes of Johnson and Linderbaum provide an opportunity to create the kind of running attack you want, set the culture you want and they feel like players, to me, who can earn second contracts and develop into top performers at their individual positions.

I don’t have a problem with going in that direction. I think we also know the Seahawks well enough to imagine they will try to fill holes using the draft rather than replace replaceable players — while taking chances on upside at certain positions over perhaps more of a sure thing.

My position hasn’t really changed. I’d love to see the top pick go on a defensive player with the potential to be great and I think Derek Stingley Jr best fits that description (given the top-four pass rushers will be long gone by #9). Yet I’m also completely content with trading down and acquiring more stock, before looking at other players including some of the names above.

I wish they didn’t still have big holes on the roster at offensive tackle because I think part of their problem over recent years has been forcing needs instead of just adding the best players available.

This is a draft to build the foundation.

Building a foundation means picking for talent, not need, with a strict focus on creating the team you want to be.

Just get some good football players.

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The fact Seattle’s two tackle spots remain unaddressed with Duane Brown and Brandon Shell both free agents feels like an enormous tell. The Seahawks are going to address tackle in the first three rounds. It’s just a question of who they take.

I’ve bored everyone to death about this not being a draft to target a left tackle which makes me think they will set about re-signing Brown after the draft. However, that still leaves the right tackle spot open (and I don’t expect in any way they are assuming Jake Curhan has it nailed).

Trevor Penning might be their guy, assuming the top pass rushers are gone. They love size and explosive traits and Penning has them. He’s a 3.03 TEF tester with a 6-7, 330lbs frame. Running a 4.89 forty at that size was incredible really.

Penning will be a very high pick as a consequence of this. People like to predict ‘surprise’ picks at this time of year. My suggestion would be Penning going #6 overall to the Panthers if Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are off the board. Scott Fitterer worked for the Seahawks. The chances are he retains some of their ideas and preferences.

I could never imagine the Seahawks taking a non-explosive, moderately athletic tackle in the top-10. After all, Russell Okung was a 3.37 TEF tester with rare 36 inch arms and ideal size.

I’m very sceptical of Carolina taking Charles Cross. I think if there’s a player who could hear his name called earlier than people think it’ll be Penning at #6 overall.

The league remains desperate for tackle prospects. Here’s one with insane athleticism, explosive traits and massive size.

And all of those reasons are why he could be a prime option for Seattle.

I maintain that he needs major technical work. It was really hard to watch how he handled the 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl. He was susceptible to the inside-move and lost some reps. He started to over-compensate. The defenders noticed it so ran to the inside then countered with speed-to-power. He’d end up off-balance and the results were not good.

It was tough watching Kyron Johnson run through him (but he also did the same to Abraham Lucas to be fair).

My long-term worry is that Penning will prove to be at his best when he doesn’t have to defend the edge and can just line up head-on and demolish. That’s what he’s good at. He worked out at the Senior Bowl at right guard and when I saw that it felt like a bit of a reveal on what the league thinks might be his fit.

No doubt he could be a really good right guard. I’d prefer not to launch a new era of Seahawks football with a tackle who might have to kick inside to guard.

Yet it’d be foolish to ignore how much he ‘fits’ Seattle. It’s very easy to imagine them drafting Penning and putting him at right tackle, then re-signing Brown. That would give Penning some development time and he could be the heir apparent at left tackle.

Would he fit the new blocking scheme in Seattle? A quick reminder that Andrew Whitworth is the exact same size as Penning (6-7, 330lbs) and right tackle Rob Havenstein is even bigger (6-8, 330lbs).

It’s a plan — one that makes sense even if it’s not what a lot of fans (including me) would prefer. It’s definitely one to file in the ‘this could plausibly happen’ cabinet.

I guess it just feels like a rich man’s James Carpenter situation. A college left tackle with a lot of intriguing traits and some good tape. Yet it feels like the end result could be very similar. A decent career at guard but perhaps no second contract in Seattle at a time everyone is hoping this pick is more of an Earl Thomas-level success story.

It’d also be wrong to completely write-off Penning. I like him as a player. He was one of the first 2022 prospects I wrote about back in September. If you read the piece you’ll see it’s a glowing review.

There are plenty of tackles with far fewer traits, less upside and much more hype who have been taken very early and flamed out.

If there’s a rush on pass rushers and offensive lineman as expected in the top-10 then the Seahawks might prefer to simply jump aboard that train.

And are we as Seahawks fans really going to complain about drafting an offensive tackle, of all positions?

They might even be able to make a pick like this after moving down (although I think the Jets at #10 could easily pull Penning off the board). If Garrett Wilson is taken in the top-eight (and increasingly people think he will be) then it increases the chances of no cornerbacks being taken by #9.

That could create a scenario where teams like Minnesota at #12 and Houston at #13 are fighting to move up to select Sauce Gardner.

Seahawks fans would flip-out if they passed on Gardner to move down because the media’s fed you a steady diet of relentless praise for Gardner. He’s a good player and I like him. I’m not convinced, though, that he’s as good as some would have you believe. He’s not done any testing other than running a forty (why?) and a reminder that there are people in the league (I’ve spoken to one of them) who firmly believe Derek Stingley Jr is still the best cornerback in this draft (even though the same source expected Gardner to be the first corner taken).

If it means acquiring an extra high pick to drop to #12 or #13, that wouldn’t be terrible. They might be prepared to take their chances on Penning getting beyond the Jets and Commanders. Stingley Jr could last. I do think there’s a chance that some teams (maybe the Seahawks) view Zion Johnson as being worthy of a similar grade to Zack Martin. Plus my source in the league (and again, you’ll have to trust me on his legitimacy but I assure you it’s a great source) mentioned last week that George Karlaftis is seen by some as basically Aidan Hutchinson just available later.

So the options are there and frankly — that might be where the good odds are for Seattle right now. If the likes of Jermaine Johnson are gone — and he will be — then exploiting other teams in need of a corner or receiver could make sense. Especially if it lands you another welcome day two pick in this beautifully deep draft.

If they don’t take a tackle with the top pick then it becomes a target later on. I still think if you want to run the ball brilliantly the best option is to find a way to draft Zion Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum and stick them next to Damien Lewis. If they don’t do this and look at tackle in round two — Abraham Lucas would be a plug-and-play right tackle.

It’s shameful really that his exceptional combine performance received so little attention. His on-field work-outs were by far the best of any of his peers. Ikem Ekwonu’s performance was filled with mistakes, errors and not finishing properly yet we were treated to endless talk of him going #1 overall during the NFL Network’s coverage. Lucas did everything at a high level. His testing results make him a 2.97 TEF tester and he ran a blistering 4.40 short shuttle.

Not only that, he was great at the Senior Bowl too. Better than many of the other players who got more praise.

Lucas is an excellent talent who has been underrated for far too long.

Tyler Smith on the other hand has become quite overrated. I don’t like the way he defends the edge and to me looks like a right tackle at best but more likely a guard. However, his demeanour and run-blocking skill could make him an option if he drops into round two.

Rasheed Walker was an interesting name on Seattle’s ‘official 30’ visit list. He hasn’t done any pre-draft testing and comes across as a bit of an enigma. On tape he flashes moments where you think — this guy could be one of the best in the league. Then there are moments where his effort isn’t close to 100% or he gets sloppy in his technique.

I think they legitimately wanted to work out who he is in that meeting. Who knows what impression he made. If it was a positive one they might view him as a round three fall-back.

It’s not rocket science to work out a little bit of their thinking though. No tackles signed means one will be drafted quite early. No hedge linebackers signed after releasing Bobby Wagner suggests they will take one quite early.

While a lot of focus has been on positions like cornerback, pass rush and quarterback — the evidence suggests those aren’t the areas they will pursue. They’ve signed three cornerbacks and like Tre Brown. They’ve spent a fair amount of money on Uchenna Nwosu (in my opinion because they could see the way the top pass rushers were rising out of reach at #9). They will probably add another quarterback but by signing Geno Smith and adding Drew Lock — and with no rookies in this draft in a serious position to start early — the chances are they’ll just spend a later round pick on a Kaleb Eleby or Jack Coan.

If opportunities are there they will take them — such as Jermaine Johnson lasting to #9 or Tyler Linderbaum being in range. If not, that’s why you hedge.

My opinion might change in the next two weeks but right now I’d think one of their first three picks will be a tackle and one will be a linebacker. The other could be another pass rusher but it’s also possible at the top of round two a player remains available they just feel is too good — regardless of position — that they need to take. It could be a quarterback. It could be Linderbaum. I would expect them to draft a running back in round three.

That would be my best guess as of today.

One big decision I’ll need to make in my next mock is whether to pair Carolina with Penning at #6 with Neal and Ekwonu off the board — or whether I have him in range for Seattle.

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Just a few quick thoughts today. I have a couple of long travelling days ahead but wanted to share a short post.

With two weeks to go one important thing to remember is — what kind of team do the Seahawks want to be?

We know the answer. We know they want to run the ball at a high level. We know they want to use it to connect the defense and special teams together. It’s something they haven’t managed to do consistently for a long time.

Much to the chagrin of many fans, they may be about to actually reduce their spending on the offensive line. By passing the torch to Shane Waldron and Andy Dickerson, they could be relying on scheme over talent. The Rams for a long time have plugged linemen in without any real fanfare. Their one big investment was Andrew Whitworth — a player in his late 30’s.

The Seahawks can still bring back Duane Brown to be their Whitworth. They’ve already signed former Rams center Austin Blythe. It won’t be a stunning turn of events if they simply find cheap fits rather than make big additions in the draft.

It’s worth mentally preparing yourself for that — if you’re someone hoping for some key trench additions in a fortnight.

On the other hand, there’s another side to consider.

When Pete Carroll and John Schneider arrived in Seattle they set about building an offensive line then delivering a heart-and-soul running back in Marshawn Lynch. Their first big decision was to draft Russell Okung. In 2011 their first two picks were James Carpenter and John Moffitt. They also added Robert Gallery as a big-name free agent having inherited Max Unger at center.

They had the most expensive O-line in the league by the time they won the Super Bowl.

Will they feel they can just transplant the Rams’ blocking scheme and voila — have a great O-line? That feels a bit risky and leaving yourself open to criticism.

It’s plausible they lend a bit from both perspectives. Shift to the Rams scheme while also being prepared to inves up front.

We’ll find out soon enough what they intend to do.

I do like the idea of attempting to build a top-level O-line. As noted a lot by now — this isn’t the draft to go searching for a left tackle early. Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are both better suited to guard. Charles Cross has become quite the overrated player. Trevor Penning has impressive physical potential but needs so much technical refinement he probably has to be eased in at right guard or right tackle. Abraham Lucas is excellent but there’s little point moving him from the right side.

I don’t want to beat a dead horse but if you want to run the ball well — the two best run-blocking linemen I’ve watched so far are probably Zion Johnson and Taylor Linderbaum.

Both have weaknesses against the pass. With Johnson he gets too amped to attack and can be caught with his positioning. There are snaps on tape and at the Senior Bowl where he was beaten by quickness or power. Linderbaum meanwhile is just so lacking in size/length that there will be occasions where he’s driven off the line and gets bull-rushed into the backfield.

However, they both do a very good job using technical skill to turn opponents to create running lanes. They can bully and harass. They love to get to the second level and reach up to turn good runs into big runs. Both are incredibly explosive, athletic and tested brilliantly.

Putting them in the interior with Damien Lewis could create the best guard/center group in the NFL within a year or two. That would pave the way for better results in the running game, greater consistency and you can play your brand of football.

I want the Seahawks to establish some form of identity. I also want them to select players in this draft with the potential to be among the best at their positions. I think Johnson and Linderbaum fit that bill.

Dallas had a lot of success drafting Zack Martin in the mid-first round and Travis Frederick in the late-first. Nobody quibbled about those two moves when they saw the results. Yes — the Cowboys also had Tyron Smith. I’m not sure having only, say, Duane Brown instead of Smith is reason enough to avoid this kind of approach.

I don’t think the Seahawks will trade down from #9 then double-dip on the interior O-line. I do think it could produce the results they want though.

Instead I fear they’re going to do what they’ve sadly become known for in the draft and that’s filling holes to produce a complete roster. I wonder if they’re more likely to select Penning to play right tackle, re-sign Brown and square-off that if nothing else Penning can simply stay on the right side. I think they will draft a linebacker and a running back fairly early. They will add another pass rusher and possibly a quarterback.

Thus, the holes will be filled.

I’d prefer them to embrace the nature of the rebuild and either take a player with major potential (Derek Stingley Jr) or trade down and start building a structure. Assuming of course the top pass rushers don’t make it to #9 (and they almost certainly won’t).

Johnson and Linderbaum are safe picks with the upside to elevate your line and running game into the top-10. They have the agility and quickness to play in the Rams’ blocking scheme and the explosive athleticism to justify early-round investment.

The first two days of the draft will be interesting to learn about Seattle’s mindset. If they’re intent on filling holes we might see:

R1 — Trevor Penning
R2 — Quarterback
R2 — Linebacker
R3 — Running back
R4 — Pass rusher

I’d rather concentrate on setting the table for 2023. Add players who can take you to where you want to go. Show the restraint and patience of 2010/11 where the foundations were built by investing in the offensive line and drafting a fantastic defensive back in Earl Thomas.

My preference would be to try and draft an exciting defensive talent with your first pick, then just add for value and quality on day two. Forget which is the most important need. Use the draft to add talent.

If they don’t believe a great player is available at #9 — trading down is justifiable in this draft, given the depth available. In that scenario, I’d happily embrace an interior O-line double to kick things off.

But the focus should remain on value and talent — not just ‘which boxes do we need to tick off’?

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