
Russell Wilson has been participating in the Pro-Bowl
I wanted to write a ‘lay of the land’ piece given all of the coaching hires are now complete and we have a clearer picture of the NFL landscape.
Why is Russell Wilson so quiet?
We’ve not had any ‘Dan Patrick’ moments and nothing has been reported since Ian Rapoport’s article about Wilson’s future (which has since been disputed by people connected to Wilson).
There wasn’t anything to be gained by speaking out before the coaching hires were finalised. Now that they are, I’m not sure the situation has really changed.
Potential suitors do exist but with varying degrees of appeal.
Plus, Wilson has made it clear his preference is to stay in Seattle — but it’s equally clear he wants to see a different approach towards building and fielding a contender. It would serve him well to at least bide some time and get a feel for what Seattle’s plans are in free agency. So the timing isn’t right to say or do anything.
The chances are he’d just create a media storm, potentially damage relationships in the Seahawks locker room and it might not lead to anything other than unrest.
Thus, everyone just has to play a waiting game for now.
Who are the potential suitors?
I was surprised to see how defiant the Giants have been about Daniel Jones. Plenty of teams like a smokescreen — see Arizona and Josh Rosen (before drafting Kyler Murray) or Chicago and Mike Glennon (before drafting Mitchell Trubisky). This feels genuine though — that Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are ready to give Jones another chance to make it work.
I would’ve had the Giants pegged as suitor #1 on any list due to their draft stock and desperate need to generate some positive PR. It seems, instead, that they’re prepared to let the GM and Head Coach control the situation. They appear keen to build through the draft and see if Daboll can do to Jones what he did to Josh Allen.
The Saints are currently not as attractive following Sean Payton’s departure. From last years list — the Bears are out of the picture, the Cowboys re-signed Dak Prescott and it only leaves the Raiders.
There are other options.
Denver are going to be incredibly aggressive this off-season. The appointment of Nathaniel Hackett could be appealing to a quarterback like Wilson, given the working relationship (and success) he had with Aaron Rodgers. The Broncos have a good roster. Yet it’s pretty clear, with the addition of Hackett, that Rodgers is their top target.
The Washington Commanders (first time I’ve written it) are making a lot of noise about being in the market for a veteran quarterback.
Firstly, they literally had Mike Silver write an article for the official team website. Here’s a section of what he wrote:
As (Ron) Rivera trudges forward following a disappointing, 7-10 season and looks to 2022, his overriding goal is clarity. Sometime in the next several months, he expects to address the most important position on his football team in a definitive and inspired manner, giving Washington’s fans — and the men in his locker room — a reason to get excited.
There are many, many potential targets, some of which I’m told it would be better not to mention by name, lest the people in charge of the teams for which they are currently under contract take umbrage and unleash the NFL’s tampering police. So no, I won’t be specifically citing any accomplished quarterbacks who may or may not be married to a famous singer, engaged to a famous actress or infamously shelved by a slew of civil lawsuits. Nor will I explicitly ponder the possibility that if a coaching change happens in a city celebrated for its nightlife a certain QB may not stay in said city — as I did in a recent column for another website.
Rivera and Silver have a long-lasting relationship dating back to their youth. It appears Silver has been invited to write this piece, for the team, to make it clear that they intend to target one of Russell Wilson (who is mentioned first), Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson or Derek Carr.
That’s not usual. It speaks to Washington’s determination to address the quarterback position and they’re letting everyone know about their intentions.
Albert Breer also wrote an article for SI.com on the same theme:
The Washington Football Team is preparing to take a big swing at a quarterback this offseason, per team sources. The team has just one quarterback, veteran Taylor Heinicke, under contract for next year, more than $40 million of cap space to work with and the 11th pick in the draft to potentially dangle in a trade.
As to the effort to find its next franchise quarterback, with big names like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson potentially out there, Washington feels like it has plenty to pitch such a veteran. While Brandon Scherff’s free agency looms (it’ll be open-minded approaching a new contract), WFT had the NFL’s sixth-ranked offensive line per PFF last year, and its depth was proven through significant absences that led to the coaches going to their fourth center, fourth tackle, and fourth and fifth guards.
Washington also has a 1,000-yard receiver (Terry McLaurin), a 1,000-yard rusher (Antonio Gibson) and other weapons on the offensive side of the ball, like Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel, returning from injury. And the defense has a good foundation in its still-young defensive line, particularly with Chase Young coming back from ACL surgery.
Then, there’s the intangible factors—getting to live in the D.C. area and being on the front end of a team rebrand that’ll be unveiled Wednesday. And the fact that the cap flexibility would give a quarterback a shot to bring a piece or two with him.
This is a sales pitch. It’s also, presumably, the sales pitch Washington will make (officially or unofficially) to the aforementioned quarterbacks when the time comes.
The team that once spent a fortune on Albert Haynesworth, used three picks on RGIII and acquired Donovan McNabb at great expense are preparing to make another big splash. They missed out on Matt Stafford a year ago. This is a desperate franchise in need of a PR shot in the arm. They need this relaunch, with a new name, to generate excitement. They know they can only do that by landing a big name QB. They will likely be prepared to spend a fortune to try and make it happen.
According to this radio host at least, there could be some mutual interest between the Commanders and Wilson.
The Steelers should be involved in trade talks but it remains to be seen how aggressive they’ll be. The Colts are seemingly not content with Carson Wentz’s performances but they’ve already used their 2022 first round pick on him. The Panthers desperately need a solution but feel unattractive. The Eagles are a wildcard.
Most of these teams have a problem. They either don’t have the draft stock to make an obscene offer and/or they can’t offer a viable replacement quarterback to the Seahawks. Thus, it makes a potential deal — however motivated certain teams might be to reach an agreement — especially challenging.
Is Wilson’s happy and content?
Probably not, no — and if you’re willing to look at this with an open-mind, nothing has changed from a year ago. The Seahawks have the status quo running operations and Wilson clearly still has reservations about Pete Carroll, John Schneider and Matt Thomas’ ability to put together a contender with their personnel decisions and football philosophy.
As we’ve discussed many times before — Wilson’s preference is quite clearly to stay in Seattle but he wants the organisation to make the necessary moves to be a genuine contender. The crux of Wilson’s dissatisfaction is purely down to that — the personnel and philosophy decisions being made have consistently not elevated this team, leading to squandered seasons. The results, one playoff win in half a decade, speak to that. Yet no changes were made to the top-table in Seattle this off-season.
It’s completely naive, however, to think that just because Wilson has issues that he can just march into the front office and make demands about his future. I think all of the decision makers will be very aware of how Wilson feels at this point. I suspect Wilson is also very realistic about this situation. The Seahawks won’t trade him without a clear pathway to finding a replacement. Thus, everyone is left in this slightly awkward holding pattern.
That is why we’ve had weeks of Wilson, when asked, saying he’s ‘hopeful’ of staying in Seattle, rather than making any firm commitment. It’s a way to answer a question and dodge a question at the same time. At the Pro-Bowl last week, Wilson again made reference to being ‘hopeful’ of staying. There’s no reason to use this language unless you’re keeping your options open — which clearly Wilson is.
A really positive, aggressive free agency is what is needed to get everyone pulling in the same direction. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.
We know the Seahawks have their ‘way’ of operating. They avoid the first wave of free agency and then try to find value in the second and third waves. They aim to ‘recruit’ players to come and play in Seattle without necessarily spending big money. This approach hasn’t worked for years and they’ve been left signing bad players and journeymen for too long.
You’d think a team willing to be so aggressive to trade what they did for Jamal Adams would also throw caution to the wind on the open market — especially given their total lack of recent post-season success. Perhaps a losing season will edge them towards a different approach? We can only hope — but it’s time to try something new. For the sake of the team and for the opportunity to build bridges with the quarterback.
Could trade talks still kick into gear?
Absolutely, yes.
Firstly, the NFL is a copycat league. If the Rams win the Super Bowl (although their mere presence in the game is probably enough) — teams will try to emulate them. LA saw they had a good roster but were lacking at quarterback. They made a very aggressive, expensive trade for Matt Stafford and the results speak for themselves.
Other teams will feel they can do the same thing.
Clearly Denver has that mindset. As we’ve heard from Mike Klis — Aaron Rodgers is Plan A and Russell Wilson is Plan B for the Broncos.
A dearth of options in the draft also plays into this. Teams can’t see a Joe Burrow available at the top of round one. If they want to find a solution at quarterback, the trade market is the way to go.
Of the big name quarterbacks in the draft, all but Matt Corral attended the Senior Bowl. It was not an attractive showing and it’s hard to imagine teams left Mobile feeling confident about the early round options.
When I read this article by ESPN discussing trades for Rodgers, Wilson and others — I had a bit of a chuckle. It’s clear some members of the media aren’t on top of the landscape of the NFL currently.
A bad QB draft class, plus the Rams’ success, is going to drive the veteran market to new heights. I think teams are going to be prepared to spend a lot on quarterbacks. Teams like the Seahawks and Packers are going to have a decision to make.
It’s entirely possible both Seattle and Green Bay receive fantastic offers and still say ‘no’. There’s no reason for the Packers to do anything other than everything it takes to make Rodgers happy. For the Seahawks — they would need a viable pathway to a replacement or they’d just end up in the same position as all the teams scrambling around for a solution this off-season.
I think Seattle’s situation is slightly different because it’s been reported multiple times that John Schneider is open-minded to a trade. We don’t know what conversations he, Carroll and Jody Allen had recently. For all the talk of Wilson’s legitimate (and in my opinion, justified) dissatisfaction — it’s possible Carroll and Schneider are not as opposed to a trade as some believe. If the right offer came along.
I suspect it’s unlikely because the media members who appear to be close to Carroll, and have been prepared to argue from his perspective over the last 12 months, are all saying the same thing — ‘no trade’.
Carroll appears to think the Seahawks are closer to contention than they actually are and making a significant change at quarterback is probably unfathomable in his eyes. But the extreme short-term nature of his planning, combined with his absolute belief in his own personal philosophy, is arguably opposed to the long term needs of the franchise and of Wilson himself.
As Albert Breer pointed out to Rich Eisen on Friday — Seattle doesn’t have a roster capable of contending. Carroll, and many fans, have seemingly had their heads turned by wins against a hapless Detroit Lions team (fielding their backup quarterback) and a slumping Arizona (which finished the season on a 1-5 run, including a humbling and emphatic loss to the aforementioned Lions).
It’s as if Seattle’s embarrassing loss in week 16 at home to Chicago — who were starting their third string quarterback — never happened.
The Seahawks need a major re-think and Breer suggests what a lot of people would argue — it might be best to let Wilson pursue his lofty career goals elsewhere, grab a haul and embrace a reset in Seattle. Yet what is best for the team and their QB possibly opposes what is best for a 70-year-old Head Coach who sees the end of his career on the horizon.
Unless, of course, he’s willing to be more aggressive in the veteran market.
The franchise, to an extent, currently serves as a vanity project for Carroll. He wants to end his long career doing things his way — and because time is of the essence, certain things are being viewed through a short-term prism (the squandering of picks on Jamal Adams, the determination to keep Wilson). In other instances though, Seattle is passive (their entire approach to free agency).
It’s quite a weird mix of extremes.
In a way it doesn’t matter whether the roster is close or not — the truth is Carroll needs it to be close, so he might as well try and talk it into reality. Yet this feels like the kind of hubris which has led the Seahawks to think they were Jamal Adams away from being a top contender, or that they can simply add a collection of depth pieces in the veteran market and turn water into wine, or that it doesn’t matter who your center is, or that Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa are ‘fixing your pass rush’.
That’s not to say other teams don’t make similar head-scratching decisions. The Niners trading what they did for Trey Lance remains absolutely staggering. You could argue the Chiefs, like the Seahawks before them, haven’t made the most of an opportunity to win multiple Championship’s when they had a capable roster. The Packers’ decision to draft Jordan Love was crazy because it not only pissed off Aaron Rodgers but Love, actually, isn’t very good.
This is a league brimming with dumb decisions and bad execution — highlighting how difficult it is to bring everything together.
That doesn’t justify the decision making in Seattle though — and a change in tactics is needed if this team is going to make the necessary moves in free agency to elevate its chances in 2022.
There is something to remember though — there was talk of Schneider gaining more control before the infamous ‘meeting’ with Jody Allen. For all the loyal media soldiers reporting that the meeting was ‘run-of-the-mill’ — it clearly wasn’t. There were consequences (Ken Norton Jr firing) and certain parties were clearly talking to the big players in the media, speculating what the outcome could be — so there was at least some unknown about the nature of those talks.
It’s hard to imagine Carroll ceding complete control — especially over a decision as big as trading Wilson — but we simply don’t know what was agreed or ordered at that meeting. Breer suggested to Eisen that Allen prefers to keep Wilson, so that could ultimately be all Carroll needs to hear to press on. He should be prepared to be more aggressive this off-season, though, to take a step forward. There’s no point holding on to Wilson if you’re not going to do that.
So yes — the Seahawks refusing all trades might be the most likely outcome at this stage. The truth is though, we just don’t know. Only a very small number of people at the top of Seattle’s food-chain know what they’re planning.
Jay Glazer said he expected the Seahawks to look different in 2022. I doubt he was talking purely about the shuffling of deckchairs that has been the defensive coordinator search.
What would a trade look like?
Three first round picks is a realistic and fair starting point in negotiations if/when they begin. The Seahawks probably wouldn’t answer the phone for anything less — and teams will be willing to pay that and more, in my opinion, to solve a crisis at quarterback.
Let’s put it this way — I think the 49ers have every chance of getting a first round pick, or a decent second rounder, for Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s how desperate teams are. His run to the NFC Championship game, even if it ended in another blown lead and a defeat, will have teams like Denver and Washington believing he’s a viable option if they can’t get to Rodgers or Wilson.
I think teams will bludgeon the Packers with offers for Rodgers and if he signs a new contract, they’ll turn their attentions quickly to Wilson. If the Seahawks say no too (and if they do, they should be prepared to extend Wilson’s contract to end any further speculation) then I think the Niners will be rubbing their hands together at the prospect of a Garoppolo trade. They’ll probably get a terrific offer.
Denver are very much the team to watch in all of this, followed by Washington and Las Vegas. The Broncos are going to be highly aggressive. That’s no secret.
Washington, as mentioned, are making it clear they want a veteran, star quarterback through the media. Their fans want it too — I recently listened to a podcast where one person said he would trade Chase Young and three firsts for Russell Wilson. Looking on the forums — there’s anticipation of a ‘monster’ (their words) offer being made for a veteran quarterback this off-season.
The problem is — even if the Commanders offered three first round picks, Chase Young and maybe even some extra draft stock. Who’s Seattle’s quarterback next year?
How far is Washington willing to go to tempt Seattle and what is the tipping point for the Seahawks where they consider accepting an offer? It’s very difficult to imagine a deal that suits both parties, meaning they might end up settling on Jimmy Garoppolo.
Then there’s the Raiders. Mark Davis was said to be keen on the thought of a ‘rock star’ Head Coach and a ‘rock star’ quarterback. You could argue Josh McDaniels is that coach. What now at quarterback?
Davis isn’t sold on Carr, per reports. There’s been chatter that part of McDaniels’ motivation for departing New England is that while he liked Mac Jones, he isn’t convinced he’s a Super Bowl winning quarterback. Would McDaniels prefer to shoot for a top QB? Especially now he’s living in a division with Mahomes and Justin Herbert, plus whoever Denver brings in? Or does he believe in Carr, who’s been allowed to run his contract down into a final year?
McDaniels is a funny one to project. This is a man who has benefitted for years by working with Tom Brady. He has seen greatness. But he’s also a man who chose to spend a first round pick on Tim Tebow to be his quarterback in Denver.
The Raiders link is the one that still stands out more than the others, because they have a replacement quarterback to offer Seattle. Or, alternatively, they could trade Carr to a Washington or Carolina or Pittsburgh — acquiring more stock to use in a Wilson trade.
Davis is said to be keen on Wilson — and Wilson listed Las Vegas as a destination he would go to a year ago. They have an offensive minded Head Coach. This feels like the team to watch, if there’s any potential of a deal being struck.
Is there any way Seattle would make a deal?
I would predict not. However, their position is being reported in an interesting way.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler appears to be well connected to Seattle. He says he spoke to two people in the organisation recently and they would be surprised if Wilson was dealt. Yet, not for the first time, he qualified it by saying, ‘Wilson would have to force the issue and request a trade’. He then mentioned the Seahawks have held trade talks in the past, with Cleveland and Chicago, and that a trade was ‘always, sort of, on the table’.
It all seems like a jumble of contradictions. You have Wilson keeping his options open every time he speaks about his future ‘hopefully’ being in Seattle. Meanwhile the team are saying ‘no deal’… unless, of course, he requests a trade. And by the way, they’ve had trade talks in the past. But, you know, the relationship’s in a great place.
It feels like a bad soap opera, or perhaps a staring contest. The Seahawks need to sort this out, one way or another, not just allow this to fester as they appear inclined to do.
Is there any way Carroll is open to a deal?
Personally I think no. It would take him getting a replacement quarterback he loves and believes in. I simply don’t think any player of that description is going to come along, so Wilson will remain. He won’t acquire a QB anywhere near as talented as Wilson.
Sometimes I wonder if Carroll might think he can acquire a quarterback who can run ‘his’ offense. Such is his unwavering confidence in his way of doing things, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m just not buying it in this instance.
Carroll spoke, rightly, about Seattle’s issues on third down last season. I think he believes Wilson can deliver better results there. I also think it was enough of an issue that it warrants a broader conversation.
Seeing the Niners go on a run like they did because they could run the ball and convert third downs could embolden Carroll. Some would argue he should be prepared to make that call but won’t because he’s too loyal to Wilson.
Garoppolo, for example, ranked sixth in the NFL for converted first downs by passing on third down. The players in front of him on the list were Matt Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa.
Wilson, on the other hand, ranked 19th in this area.
Again — I think Carroll believes Wilson can do better and improve that side of his game. I also think the finger injury has to be considered whenever analysing Wilson’s 2021 season.
Carroll also knows he can rely on Wilson to throw beautiful passes downfield — something his offense truly values.
The end to the season, when Seattle was also running a lot better, will also presumably give Carroll confidence that they have an in-house solution to this third-down problem.
Yet given the fact Carroll highlighted this as much as he did during the season — and given Wilson has historically not been a great third down passer — he would be doing himself a disservice not to at least have a conversation with Schneider about how to fix this.
Clearly Seattle isn’t trading for Garoppolo. The Niners and Seahawks are not going to come together to make a deal.
As discussed recently, they might have some interest in Kirk Cousins. Or more specifically, Carroll might have interest. There’s also the prospect of the Raiders offering Carr in a trade offer.
However — this is where it gets interesting. Wilson ranked 19th on third down conversions through the air in 2021. Carr ranked 18th, only marginally better, and Cousins ranked 17th. So the three players are clumped together in the same range. Yet Wilson is a far more talented, dynamic and statistically impressive passer. So is there any real benefit to trading Wilson to go with either of these two alternatives? The answer, on this evidence, is no.
As I’ve said — I think Carroll believes in Wilson sufficiently to not have his head turned, regardless of the offers that will come in. And thus — despite the potentially lucrative offers that will eventually be posted — I’d expect him to hold tight. Then it’s up to Wilson to assess the situation — but that likely can’t be done until after he sees what the Seahawks do in free agency.
My suggestion would be to involve Wilson in the planning process to just make absolutely sure everyone is working together. After all, Joe Burrow admitted this week he is asked for input on draft picks and free agent signings in Cincinnati. He mentioned how he appreciated that — and that he’d seen other quarterbacks frustrated because they don’t have that same sway. Mahomes likewise is consulted by the Chiefs.
There’s no reason not to include your $35m investment at the heart of this process. The Seahawks should put that right immediately.
What about the draft class?
There’s no reason to believe the Seahawks see an alternative quarterback solution in the rookie class. Schneider has often looked for players with plus arm strength and major traits. His only QB pick in the first two days of any draft is Wilson and he reportedly really liked Josh Allen and Mahomes.
Players like Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder and Carson Strong simply don’t have the big, physical traits or the creativity.
The one player who does is Malik Willis. He is a great improviser, a strong runner and he has a big arm. He is capable of making magic happen and that could appeal. However, his technique is so bad that it will lead to turnovers and the way he reads the field is scary. Watch the tape, not the highlights videos. He looks right at wide-open players downfield, turns down throws and tries to scramble instead. He never takes what a defense gives him. It’s all very one-read and run.
People will mock that he sounds like Russell Wilson. Let’s be clear. Willis’ issues reading the fielding and making quick, accurate decisions are on a totally different level to a quarterback with a career passer rating of 101.8, a 292/87 TD/INT ratio and more wins than any other QB in the first decade of his NFL career.
In the right system, Willis can be dynamic. I think in the Greg Roman offense — which would utilise his running as a major plus — he could be a terror. For a team trying to stay on time, move the chains and improve on third downs he isn’t the answer.
Regardless, it feels like the time has long passed that Carroll would be willing to turn things over to a rookie. Any move he makes at quarterback is going to be with the here and now in focus. After a 7-10 season, and in his 71st year, he probably feels he doesn’t have time for a long reset.
Final thoughts
Ultimately I think Ian Rapoport is absolutely right in his assessment, as voiced on the Pat McAfee show on Friday. Wilson is keeping his options open but the Seahawks, in order to actually make a trade, need a proven alternative at quarterback because Pete Carroll is 71 this year and isn’t starting a big rebuild.
It’s very difficult to envisage what Carroll would see as a viable alternative. Thus, I think he will do what he’s been threatening to do — run it back and try and prove that his team is closer than a lot of people think.
Wilson will continue to couch his language when he speaks because he is not convinced the Seahawks will do what it takes to contend again — yet there’s not a lot he can do if the team is unprepared to trade him. His concern about potentially wasting the second half of his career, though, is legit. So if the Seahawks continue to be passive in free agency there’s still a chance he will speak out and request a trade before the draft.
It comes down to this. Don’t be passive in free agency. Acquire proven talent. Be prepared to play the ‘cap game’ like a lot of other teams. You are operating in a small window here. It makes no sense to go all-in for the Jamal Adams trade and then be conservative in free agency.
The Seahawks can be good again in 2022 but they have to be prepared to do things they haven’t done before when the new league year opens.
They need to make some key signings at the start of free agency.
Over to you, Carroll and Schneider.
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