Florida’s Dameon Pierce — underused and underrated
There are going to be two parts to this article. Firstly, I’m going to separate the 2022 draft prospects I have studied by grade. Then I’m going to analyse what this class means for the Seahawks and their potential future.
Grading the 2022 draft
These grades will change and adjust following the Senior Bowl and combine.
Here are some general thoughts on the class before I get started:
1. There is depth and value to be had in the middle rounds but I can’t recall a draft where there were so few obvious players deserving of a top-15 grade.
2. The Senior Bowl and combine is going to have a bigger impact than ever. With so little clarity on who deserves to be a first round pick this year, the week in Mobile and testing in Indianapolis will be a king maker.
3. We may see a record low number of players given legit first round grades. Expect this to be a draft where the player taken at #12 might have a similar grade to the player going at #50.
Legit top-10 picks (3)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
These three players arguably would warrant a top-10 pick in most drafts. They combine college production with superb athleticism and upside.
Thibodeaux is long, quick and explosive off the edge. He’s a prototype — with seven sacks in 11 games this season barely telling the whole story of how dynamic he is. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ but appears capable of testing even better — combining balance, lean, change of direction and acceleration.
Hutchinson has been a terror for a long time at Michigan with a relentless, rounded game. He’s reportedly capable of a 4.07 short shuttle which would be elite-level agility for the position. He’s also managed a 36 inch vertical jump at Michigan and a 4.64 forty. He has 14 sacks for the season and will compete with Thibodeaux to be the first player taken.
Derek Stingley has battled injuries recently but he exploded onto the scene as a freshman during LSU’s Championship run. He has ideal size but his testing at SPARQ was remarkable. He ran a 4.30 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and achieved a sensational 142.74 overall score. Teams will want to dig deep on some perceived minor character concerns but he is a blue-chip talent at a premium position.
Likely first round prospects (7)
Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
Bernhard Raimann (T, Central Michigan)
Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
This group are a tier below the ‘big three’. In other drafts they might struggle to justify going in the top-15. However, due to the limited top-end talent in this draft, they could all find themselves elevated as high as the top-10.
Kyle Hamilton is a gliding, silky smooth safety. Despite being listed at 6-4 and 220lbs — he isn’t a thumper. He covers ground superbly, has better than expected range for his size and a nose for the football. Hamilton is reportedly capable of a 42 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump.
Jordan Davis is 6-6 and 340lbs but he will be one of the stars of the combine. He will run quicker than anyone expects and make headlines. He is a classic nose-tackle who absorbs blocks and controls the interior yet he’s equally capable of shooting gaps and impacting the passing game. He’s not as good as Vita Vea but he’s not miles behind.
Trevor Penning is an outstanding left tackle who doesn’t just pass and run block well — he’ll demolish you by judo-tossing you to the turf. Penning squats 625lbs and cleans 385lbs. He’s projected to run a 5.00 forty. He sets the tone up front and the only question mark will be the level of competition he faced at Northern Iowa.
Evan Neal plays left tackle for Alabama but he has a frame that looks ideally suited to guard. He’s incredibly strong and powerful at the POA but might have issues dealing with the speed rush at the next level. He can bench press 475lbs and squat 650lbs. There’s no reason not to try him at left tackle first — but he just looks tailor made to switch inside and be a terrific interior lineman.
Bernhard Raimann is originally from Austria. He has an ideal left tackle frame and all of the expected testing numbers for a high draft pick — 9-8 broad jump, 1.56 10-yard split, 450lbs bench press. Penning, Raimann and the next name on the list all delivered ‘wow’ moments on tape. They play with attitude and a high level of athleticism.
Abraham Lucas looks like the most athletic, agile and mobile right tackle to play in college football since Tyron Smith. It shouldn’t be a surprise — he ran a 4.30 short shuttle at SPARQ and a 5.03 forty. He can handle 1v1’s off the edge and looks like a candidate to switch over to left tackle.
David Ojabo has had a sensational season, combining with Aidan Hutchinson to help guide Michigan to the Big-10 title. He has great quickness off the edge, provides a solid counter when engaged and he can threaten with a great get-off and burst. The question throughout the process will be how much Ojabo and Hutchinson benefitted each other. For Ojabo — can he be ‘the guy’?
Potential top-40 picks (15)
Logan Hall (DL, Houston)
Daxton Hill (S, Michigan)
Jalen Catalon (S, Arkansas)
Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State)
Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
Jalen Wydermyer (TE, Texas A&M)
Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
DeMarvin Leal (DL, Texas A&M)
Bryan Cook (S, Cincinnati)
Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
Drake London (WR, USC)
Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
This group will be a mix. Some of these players will be first rounders. Some will likely be available later and provide good value.
I was very close to including Logan Hall in the second tier. His ability to win with power or speed is exciting. There are series’ in games where he takes over. You can line him up inside and he can push lineman back into the pocket to disrupt the run or pass. He can kick outside and work off the edge. I really like him.
Daxton Hill has the potential to be special. He ran a 4.30 forty at SPARQ and a 4.13 short shuttle. He jumped a 44 inch vertical (!!!). His overall score was 143.76. His play is coming along — he had two interceptions and 4.5 TFL’s this season. He has star potential and just needs the right guidance.
Jalen Catalon has missed time with injury but when he was on the field for Arkansas he was a dynamic playmaker. He can play deep safety, he can come up to the LOS and make plays against the run. I can imagine him collecting picks at the next level. He plays a lot like Quandre Diggs.
Jameson Williams is the top receiver in this draft. Suddenness and quickness is king at the next level and he has that natural ability to separate downfield and stretch a defense, while also being able to create early separation on shorter routes. He has 1445 yards and 17 total touchdowns this year.
I’m torn on George Karlaftis. There are flashes on tape where he wins off the edge with great quickness and you see speed-to-power too. Yet he drifts in and out of games and his production is extremely average. He has only five sacks this season in 12 games. Yet he’s 6-4 and 275lbs, he can jump a 10-1 broad and a 37 inch vertical. He’s been timed running a 4.69. Those numbers get him into round one comfortably.
Tyler Linderbaum is a very good prospect — he’s just not as good as some of the people on the internet are suggesting. He’s not a top-10 pick and there are examples on tape where he can be knocked back by power and he’s undersized (approx 295lbs). Yet he’s extremely agile and has been timed running an outstanding 4.22 short shuttle. He’s also a top wrestler and even beat Tristan Wirfs in a key High-School match.
Jermaine Johnson transferred from Georgia to Florida State and looked every bit a NFL EDGE. He recorded 11.5 sacks, 17.5 TFL’s, 12 quarterback hurries and he returned a fumble for a touchdown. Length, a lean frame, get-off and speed.
Treylon Burks is a bit of a freak of nature. He has 10.75 inch hands. He’s a bigger receiver (6-3, 225lbs) but he plays smaller than that. He can burn-off defenders on downfield routes and he does a tremendous job tracking the football, contorting his body and making high-pointed catches. How he runs at the combine will determine how early he goes.
Jalen Wydermyer had a surprisingly quiet start to the season but then exploded to help Texas A&M defeat Alabama. He is very athletic and well sized, providing the kind of mismatches teams crave in the modern NFL. He can break the seam, get up on linebackers and safeties to exploit opportunities and he can be a red zone threat.
Trey McBride’s agility testing will determine how early he goes because everything on tape is superb. He loves to block and he’s good at it. He’s a YAC machine. He attacks the seam with long-striding acceleration but can also run corner routes and he challenges defenders with a competitive spirit when the ball’s in the air. He’s a sure-handed and reliable catcher even in traffic.
DeMarvin Leal is a player you want to love but end up only liking. He has 8.5 sacks this year and he has an intriguing physical profile. He’s 6-4 and 290lbs and plays inside/out. When he kicks inside he can be forceful and slip gaps to break into the backfield. But he’s inconsistent. You’re always left wanting more.
I loved watching Bryan Cook. He’s an animal. His hard hitting, great instincts and ability to play either as a big nickel or at strong safety make him a player to covet. Testing will be big for him but there’s a lot to like here, including his size (6-1, 210lbs).
Devin Lloyd is slightly undersized (235lbs) but that’s the modern game. His frame lacks definition and he could maybe add a bit of size without impacting his game. However — he is just a pure playmaker. Four interceptions, 22 TFL’s, eight sacks, six pass breakups. He’s had an incredible 2021 season.
Drake London has missed time through injury but when he was healthy, he made a real impression as a bigger receiver who can dominate defenders with his size and ball-tracking. He can jump a 38 inch vertical and played basketball as well as football at USC. If he runs well, he could be a first rounder. It won’t be a surprise if he lasts into round two and provides tremendous value for someone.
Jordan Davis has received a lot of attention at Georgia (and rightly so) but Devonte Wyatt is the forgotten man. He has 7.5 TFL’s in 12 games and is capable of running in the 4.8’s while jumping a 9-3 broad and a 31 inch vertical. He can shoot gaps but at 6-3 and 315lbs he can be on the field for any down/distance.
Potential second rounders (22)
Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
Ikem Ekonwu (G, NC State)
Charles Cross (T, Mississippi State)
Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Drake Jackson (DE, USC)
Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
Derrick Deese Jr (TE, San Jose State)
Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State)
Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
Rasheed Walker (T, Penn State)
Phidarian Mathis (DT, Alabama)
Kingsley Enagbare (DE, South Carolina)
Cameron Thomas (DE, San Diego State)
Brian Asamoah (LB, Oklahoma)
Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)
Some of these players, in my opinion, are overrated by draft media. They may well find their way into round one due to the class but their natural home would be day two. That’s the pre-combine grade I’ve given them.
Some highlights from this group…
— Carson Strong is the most talented quarterback in terms of mechanics, arm strength and general talent. However, there are serious concerns about a long-standing knee issue that has lingered since High School. Kenny Pickett has, reportedly, 8 1/4 inch hands. He throws in gloves. He’s a talented gunslinger and he showed at the weekend he’s more athletic than people realise. That hand size though. Desmond Ridder might end up providing the best combination of value and talent. He has delivered ‘wow’ throws this season, can create and extend plays with his legs and has elevated Cincinnati to a new level.
— You won’t see many draft analysts putting Dameon Pierce in round two. However, he has ideal size (5-10, 215-220lbs), he’s explosive (37 inch vertical) he can run (4.50 forty) and he is an absolute BAMF. The Seahawks badly need a tone-setter like this. Florida didn’t use him anywhere near enough. He won’t go this early but he’ll provide tremendous value later on for a smart team. Pierce is my RB2 behind only Zach Charbonnet — a complete running back who drives through contact, catches the ball nicely and is better in pass pro than any other back I’ve seen this year.
— Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are lower than most other website have them listed for one reason only — I need to see them run. I am not convinced either will run as well as some think. Anyone running slower than a 4.50 runs the risk of dropping down the board.
— Not enough people talk about Channing Tindall. He flies around the field, hits like a sledgehammer and has a big future in the NFL. Likewise Derrick Deese is a catching machine at San Diego State with good size. He doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention.
— A lot of people love Charles Cross and Ikem Ekonwu. I was a bit underwhelmed watching Cross. He looks the part but didn’t excite me. Eknowu might be playing tackle but he’s a pure guard. I like his physical playing style and like a lot of NC State linemen (OL and DL) he’ll test well. I just think this range suits him and he’s being elevated because people are struggling to fill out their mocks.
Potential third rounders (26)
Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
Matt Bedford (T, Indiana)
Greg Dulcich (TE, UCLA)
David Bell (WR, Purdue)
Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State)
Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
Brian Robinson (RB, Alabama)
Kenyon Green (G, Texas A&M)
Darian Kinnard (T, Kentucky)
Sean Rhyan (G, UCLA)
Matt Corrall (QB, Ole Miss)
Rachaad White (RB, Arizona State)
Jeremy Ruckert (TE, Ohio State)
Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
John Metchie (WR, Alabama)
Haskell Garrett (DT, Ohio State)
Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
Alex Forsyth (C, Oregon)
Jaquan Brisker (S, Penn State)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (T, Ohio State)
Christian Harris (LB, Alabama)
Roger McCreary (CB, Auburn)
Nate Landman (LB, Colorado)
Jerome Ford (RB, Cincinnati)
Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)
Josh Vann (WR, South Carolina)
This is a group mixed with some of the more overrated members of this draft class and a collection of players where testing will have a big influence on their stock.
Some highlights from this group…
— Kaair Elam and Kenyon Green are regularly mocked early in round one but I just don’t see it. Elam takes too many chances and looks more of a great athlete than a competent cornerback. With Green, I feel like I’m watching a different player to everyone else. At right guard he was… fine. But not at the level Damien Lewis showed at LSU. Some people are projecting him in the top-10 and that is mind-blowing to me. He’s not a dominant physical talent, he doesn’t have great feet or agility.
— Matt Bedford played right tackle for Indiana and I think he’s very much a player to keep an eye on. People project him to guard but I think he has the footwork, length and agility to make it work at tackle. Greg Dulcich is a highly talented tight end with major upside.
— One or two big names fall into this range due to physical issues. Brian Robinson at Alabama is high-cut in his frame. Roger McCreary has short arms. There are question marks about Josh Vann’s speed. All of the tight ends are good players but they have to show they can test well in the key areas (agility — short shuttle, three cone).
— Matt Corrall is a difficult one for me. He’s 6-0 and 200lbs and playing in a spread system that makes life as easy as possible for him. He does flash arm talent but his mistakes, when they happen, are glaring. I fear he’ll end up like a lot of the old Oklahoma State quarterbacks — hyped up in college, nondescript at the next level.
What does all this mean for the Seahawks?
There are three scenarios — a future with or without Russell Wilson, plus a situation where Wilson is replaced with a big name veteran.
The future with Wilson makes a lot of this article moot, short of finding value later on. They won’t acquire extra first round stock without making a different big trade (eg — D.K. Metcalf). They would have some money to spend but a lot of holes to fill — including both tackle spots.
It’s impossible to justify Bobby Wagner’s $20m salary in 2022. They should make a difficult but necessary decision to shift that investment to the lines — making a big push for someone such as Terron Armstead or a proven quality pass rusher.
If you’re going to spend a first round pick in 2020 on a player who played middle linebacker in college, you might as well start him there and add a cheaper WILL.
Such a scenario would likely see big changes in terms of coaching and possibly the front office. I recently wrote that this would be a model similar to the one devised by Green Bay when they moved on from Mike McCarthy. Or perhaps the Seahawks could make a bold move to pair Wilson with Sean Payton— only in Seattle, rather than New Orleans.
The second scenario is Wilson departs via trade and the Seahawks acquire major draft stock — potentially two top-10 picks and another high pick in 2023 from one of the Giants or Eagles.
If they went down this road, it would be a ground-zero rebuild. You might as well see what else you can get for players such as Metcalf. Paying a receiver between $20-30m a year might be viable given the reduced cost at other positions (particularly quarterback) but it’d arguably be a waste of money if you spend the next three years chasing your tail looking for a new QB.
In this situation, it’s tempting to want to fix every problem immediately. That’s not possible. There should be a plan formed to work on specific areas year-by-year — meshing what is available in the draft with priority planning.
The first priority should be to improve the trenches. That would be possible here.
One option would be to hope to be in a position to draft Evan Neal early, either to play left tackle or, his better position in my opinion, left guard. I don’t think Tyler Linderbaum is going to go as early as many people think. You could, potentially, trade back into the late first using your second rounder to select him.
That could create a situation where you have a young interior core and a foundation to build from. Perhaps Duane Brown could be retained to offer veteran leadership, with your other first rounder used on one of these impressive tackles (Trevor Penning, Bernhard Raimann or Abraham Lucas — although Penning could easily be the first lineman off the board).
That would establish an offensive line that is highly athletic, tough and plays with a brutality the Seahawks currently lack. Add a good running back in the middle rounds (Charbonnet? Pierce?) and you’d be creating the foundation to run the ball with greater consistency, if nothing else.
The thing is, I get the sense the current Seahawks regime prefer veteran linemen. They’ve certainly moved towards that in recent years. Installing three rookies into your O-line could be a recipe for disaster and could impact future careers if rookie seasons leave scars.
If there was an opportunity to select either Kayvon Thibodeaux or Aidan Hutchinson it should be taken. You could even build a case for trading up for one of them. Yet as they’re likely the #1 and #2 picks — they probably won’t be in reach, given the Lions and Texans (two places Wilson won’t go anywhere near) are slated to ‘earn’ the first two picks.
If the focus was to go D-line early, there are options beyond these two. Jordan Davis could anchor the line but the Seahawks have traditionally gone cheap up front (and had a degree of success adding bigger defensive tackles at a tiny cost). Logan Hall is an incredibly exciting player. David Ojabo playing across from Darrell Taylor would challenge opposing tackles.
You could also mix and match. A first rounder on both lines, complemented by some bold free agent moves with the extra cap space created. Either way — fix the trenches and deliver a consistent running game. That’s your starting point.
This would be a similar situation to the one in New England. They spent brilliantly in free agency, splashing out on Matt Judon who has 11.5 sacks. They’ve done a good job complementing draft picks with veteran additions. They also found a quarterback they can build around. Of course, things are always easier when you have Bill Belichick, ably supported by Josh McDaniels.
The final scenario would see the Seahawks trade Wilson and replace him with another veteran. Jason La Canfora speculated Seattle might have interest in Aaron Rodgers, due to John Schneider’s connections in Green Bay. It’s fanciful but an option.
Rodgers clearly remains a genius on the field and shows no signs of slowing down. However, his price tag would likely match Wilson’s. He’s just turned 38, so it’s an extreme short-term move.
That said, you could still move Wagner to create cap space to shift investment to your lines. And Rodgers would likely enjoy throwing to the weapons in Seattle.
If Pete Carroll departs — I still think he will after this season — and Schneider picks, say, Nathaniel Hackett the Green Bay offensive coordinator to replace him — that could set the table for a wild quarterback double deal, where Wilson is dealt to someone like the Saints, Giants, Eagles or Broncos before the Seahawks strike a deal with the Packers.
There’s a lot to digest here and we’ll flesh out these scenarios more in the coming weeks. The only certainty, though, is we’re less than a month away from the end of the season. And that’s when change of some form will occur and a new era of Seahawks football — one way or another — will begin.
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