The legal tampering period begins on Monday at 9am PST.
We’ll be across any big breaking news regarding the Seahawks, via articles and live streams. I’ll update this post when anything happens.
In the meantime here’s an open thread and a breakdown of the latest:
— Mike Garafolo says the Seahawks were interested in Kevin Zeitler, before he agreed terms on a three-year deal worth $22m with the Baltimore Ravens. Assuming the Seahawks aren’t in the Joe Thuney/Corey Linsley market, Zeitler was seen as a viable (and cheaper) alternative.
Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune has spoken to two NFL GM’s about Russell Wilson’s future. One didn’t think a trade would happen, citing the usual reasons (lack of draft stock from the Bears etc). The other thought a trade was possible with Chicago (“They’re desperate, and if I’m Seattle, I just keeping asking for more and more and more”). That same GM then connected the Seahawks to Sam Darnold, as Colin Cowherd did on Friday. What would the price be? A high second round pick apparently, or the equivalent value. For any Wilson trade to occur, you’d have to think Darnold would either be part of the deal or a Seahawks trade with the Jets would have to be arranged first. They cannot afford to get into a negotiating battle with other teams for a replacement quarterback.
Corey Linsley is signing with the Chargers and Joe Thuney is joining the Chiefs. If you were hoping the Seahawks would make a splash to placate their disillusioned franchise quarterback, you’ll be disappointed. Still, I’m sure Russell Wilson be taking this news well.
Carlos Hyde and Phillip Dorsett have both signed with the Jaguars
I will be hosting a live stream with Robbie Williams at 1pm PST. Log onto the blog or YouTube to watch along.
The Seahawks need an injection of quality.
It doesn’t matter if their preferred method is to go bargain shopping in free agency. It hasn’t worked.
They have one playoff win in four years — against an Eagles team who won the NFC East by default and had Josh McCown at quarterback.
A number of disappointing draft classes should be forcing Seattle’s hand. Whether Russell Wilson stays or not — they need more talent.
The cheap and cheerful approach produced the following results a year ago:
— Spending $4.2m on Branden Jackson and Joey Hunt, squandering money that could’ve been used elsewhere in the first few weeks of the new league year
— Spending $9.2m on B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell. Meanwhile, all-pro right tackle Jack Conklin cost the Cleveland Browns $8m in 2020
— Using $13m on ageing players Greg Olsen and Bruce Irvin. Both missed most of the season through injury
— $12.1m was spent on Benson Mayowa, Jacob Hollister, Quinton Dunbar and Mike Iupati
The Seahawks ended up blowing about $50m and didn’t add a single difference maker.
This kind of depth filling is fine if you have a loaded roster and continue to draft well. When you’re not doing either of those things, wasting money on backups and fringe starters isn’t a pathway to success.
The Seahawks will likely try to capitalise on a unique market and let things come to them again this year. It’s a perfectly plausible plan given the economic circumstances. It might work.
But when’s the last time the market did come to the Seahawks?
When was their last great recruiting job? 2013?
Will they just continue to overplay their hand, missing out on the best options?
Will they end up going into training camp and the regular season with huge needs again? Banking on last minute trades or dragging guys off the couch?
It’s time for a more pro-active approach. Despite a 12-4 record last season, the Seahawks weren’t close. The playoff defeat to the Rams brutally exposed their flaws.
They only have a few draft picks, including one in the first three rounds. That’ll change if they trade Russell Wilson — but that in itself will only increase pressure on the Seahawks to improve the overall quality of their roster.
They don’t have any long term answers at left tackle, cornerback or defensive end. They have a highly dissatisfied franchise quarterback.
Their main investment has gone into the safety and linebacker positions.
None of this is good.
You’re not going to find 8-10 year solutions at the key positions on the open market but at least you can try and add some real quality.
They need to be creative, somewhat aggressive and mix calculated moves to take advantage of the market with at least a couple of pro-active splashes.
They did it in 2011 — adding Sidney Rice and Zach Miller. It’s time to do it again.
Can they legitimately go after the best names available? Perhaps not. They haven’t made the moves necessary to shift resource from linebacker and safety to the trenches — so I’m not anticipating anything big.
If you looked at my off-season plan, you’d know that’s exactly what I would be doing. So far though, their only move has been to cut the best pass rusher on the roster to save money.
They’re not back in the draft and at the moment will pick just once in the top-130. How do they improve with one high-ish pick and bargain shopping in free agency?
They have to do more. Frankly, it’s absurd to trade as much as they did for Jamal Adams (the ultimate aggressive move) only to stick so steadfastly to an approach in free agency that has simply delivered below average players.
Admittedly it could be difficult to sell a top free agent on joining the Seahawks with Wilson’s future up in the air. This feels like a dysfunctional franchise at the moment and with nobody addressing a story that has dominated the NFL’s news agenda for five weeks, short of a resolution in the next 24 hours they will not be putting their best foot forward to prospective signings.
Fans deserve some hope too. The silence over the Wilson issue might be the best plan if you’re trying to win a PR battle with your franchise quarterback. Yet the mystery surrounding this situation has just left fans in the dark — wondering what’s really going on.
Equally fans see a roster littered with gaps, limited cap space, not much to look forward to in the draft and a playoff shellacking to a division rival still lingers.
Clarity is needed for this team. Where are they heading? How are they going to get there? Some answers need to emerge in the coming days.
Here are some of the names I would target. I’m not suggesting they land all of the names below. I know that’s not possible. Two or three would at least show some initiative:
Corey Linsley (C, Green Bay)
I don’t care how likely it is. This is the type of move they should be making. You’ve got to block Aaron Donald at least twice a season. You’ve had a revolving door at the position for years. Linsley had a PFF grade of 89.9 in 2020. It’s time to actually make the line of scrimmage a big priority. O-line and pass rush. This should start with a big splash and be followed up with a high draft pick at left guard. Alternatively go and get Joe Thuney and draft a center. They should also create the resource to upgrade the D-line. There’s no point doing the same thing that hasn’t worked for the last few years. Time to make the trenches a focal point.
Add proper pass rushers
Rasheem Green and LJ Collier aren’t good enough. Seattle’s pass rush was abysmal last season prior to Carlos Dunlap’s arrival. The Seahawks have done an appalling job with their pass rush over the years and that needs to be sorted pronto. The Super Bowl should’ve been a wake-up call with the way Tampa Bay played. The Seahawks need to sign two players. Getting Dunlap back would be a start but if not — they need to do what they should’ve done last year. Add quality. There are plenty of names out there — Dupree, Lawson, Hendrickson, Clowney, Dunlap, Judon, Ngakoue, Okwara, Floyd, Smith. Fix it, for goodness sake. Add two and pair them with an expanded role for Alton Robinson. Alternatively, if they do end up back in the draft — there are plenty of athletic edge rushers available in this class that would appeal to the Seahawks, as you can see in my horizontal board:
Haason Reddick (LB, Arizona)
I’ve long been a fan of Reddick’s and the chance to weaken a rival and improve your own roster is appealing. He’s only 26 and just had a 12.5 sack season for the Cardinals. He has the length (33 inch arms), quickness (1.59 split) and explosive traits (36.5 inch vertical, 11-1 broad) that Seattle loves. He’d be a real asset as a SAM linebacker who can move up to the LOS for passing downs. If they plan on running more bear fronts moving forward, he provides flexibility there. Reddick improves your speed, pass rush and physicality.
Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay)
I know — don’t pay running backs. Here’s the thing — I don’t think anyone is going to pay them. I suspect there’s a chance the ones in this market might be left looking at short-term contracts similar to Melvin Gordon’s two-year deal worth $8m a season. The Seahawks don’t have much in the way of draft picks and it’s not a great class for runners. Javonte Williams will be off the board by the time they pick in round two and if they get Chicago’s #20 — do you really want to use that on him? Jones is one of the best players on the market and the Seahawks need some reliable quality at the position. A short-term commitment wouldn’t be the end of the world financially.
Any legit #3 weapon
Regardless of who is playing quarterback, any modern NFL team needs an arsenal of weapons. Two isn’t enough. You need three or four these days. So whether they invest in a dynamic tight end such as Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett, a dynamic outside receiver such as Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller or a potential X-factor such as Curtis Samuel — the Seahawks need to add someone. Then they need to get back in the draft and add another — with appealing options at both TE and WR in this class.
Richard Sherman (CB, San Francisco)
Despite a lot of talk about wanting to be the bully, the Seahawks are not a physical football team. They don’t have an edge. Nobody fears playing them. Teams like the Giants march into Seattle and kick their arse. Signing Sherman alone won’t change that but it’s a start. They need some attitude and intensity.
Meanwhile, there’s a little update on Wilson today. Ian Rapoport says interested parties are expecting to discover ‘in a day or so’ whether the Seahawks will trade him. Mike Florio says the issues between team and player have not been resolved.
If you missed my interview with Payton Turner on Friday, check it out here:
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Colin Cowherd linked the Seahawks to Sam Darnold on Friday
Where we stand on the Russell Wilson trade saga
Reading the tea leaves this week — and the point blank reporting from the likes of the brilliant Tony Pauline — this is my hunch on what’s going on…
I think the Seahawks know what’s on the table from the Bears. I think the last few days have been about exhausting all options and doing due diligence.
For example, Mike Silver proposed the possibility of a team like Carolina getting involved (or at least emphasised Seattle’s hope that it could happen).
It makes sense to see if you can get a better offer and open up the process beyond Wilson’s identified suitors. It doesn’t seem like it worked but it was worth a try.
More recently the talk has flipped to the need for the Seahawks to have a progression plan at quarterback. Silver, Dianna Russini and Colin Cowherd have all talked about this in the last few days.
Again, I think the Seahawks know what’s on the table from the Bears. I wouldn’t be surprised if their offer is at least somewhat appealing. They are desperate and are reportedly prepared to create a deal ‘the Seahawks can’t refuse’.
My hunch is Seattle doesn’t want to initiate an aggressive quarterback pursuit immediately after trading Wilson.
I don’t think they want to start a rookie in 2021 and go through the growing pains. The plan, if they deal Wilson, will be to try and compete immediately (realistic or not).
Cowherd pitched Sam Darnold as a target. I think that makes some sense, whatever your opinion of Darnold is. I’ll come on to my view on him later.
He’s 23-years-old. He’ll still be on his rookie contract for one more year and you’d have the flexibility of the fifth year option.
What you don’t want to do, however, is get into a trade battle for him.
Imagine you do the deal with the Bears and obtain their first (#20) and second (#52) round picks this year as part of the package.
Many people are suggesting the San Francisco 49ers are preparing to make an offer for Darnold. They own the #43 pick.
How do you outbid them? Do you end up trading away a big chunk of the stock you’ve just acquired?
I think the Seahawks are hoping the Bears will find a solution for them.
Can they get the Jets involved in a three-team deal?
That way the Seahawks get their quarterback solution, they don’t need to trade away their newly acquired stock and they don’t need to start competing with other teams for their preferred QB replacement.
I’m not sure how the Bears would pull this off.
But here’s the thing — they’re desperate.
Chicago fans have been whipped into a frenzy over this Wilson situation. Ryan Pace is already on borrowed time. Picking Mitchell Trubiksy over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson was bad enough. Flirting with a deal for Wilson and allowing fans to get their hopes up — only to miss out — would make things even worse. Especially when they have very little chance of convincing the Texans to trade Watson with the likes of Miami and Carolina better placed to make a deal.
The leverage the Seahawks have comes in the form of one powerful sentence:
‘Do you want a franchise quarterback or not?’
If the Bears want Wilson and they are truly prepared to do what it takes, they might have to find a way to get the Jets involved.
Seattle will want to use any trade compensation to build, not replace.
Why this needs to be sorted this weekend
The issue discussed above might be the sticking point currently. Yet all parties need a resolution as soon as possible.
The Seahawks, Bears or any other trade partner need to be able to start free agency with complete clarity.
For Seattle, if they trade Wilson they need to be able to use their new-found cap freedom to build up the roster. For a potential buyer, they’ll want to build around their new quarterback.
This isn’t something you can get around to half way through free agency or just before the draft. It needs sorting this weekend before the legal tampering period opens on Monday (launching the start of free agency).
If the Seahawks are going to do this, they need to be able to make some moves. As we’ve highlighted already in recent weeks, they have options.
The salary cap is a movable feast and there’s so much hidden flexibility.
The dead cap money has never been the issue many in the media have made it out to be. As Cowherd noted on Friday:
“Seattle’s not too caught up, I’m told, on the dead money stuff. They don’t care about that for a year. They don’t.”
Here’s a quick reminder on why it’s not a problem…
At the moment the Seahawks have about $17m in cap space.
If you trade Wilson that will go down to $10m (which would still be more than 12 teams in the league).
By dealing him now, you create $37m in cap space for 2022 because Wilson’s contract comes off the books. That would leave you with about $178m to spend next year which, at the moment, would be the most in the league by far.
As Curtis Allen highlighted recently, if you look at the existing contracts on the roster there’s over $58m in movable cap space. This is non-guaranteed money that you can play around with. Many teams are doing that at the moment.
It’s actually fairly straight forward to create tens of millions of dollars of cap space for this year.
So let’s say they borrow a somewhat conservative $20-30m from the 2022 cap. You would have around $30-40m to spend this year and $138-148m to spend next year. That’s an incredible situation to be in.
It’s better to be in the thick of the action on Monday, showing the fan base you mean business despite trading Wilson, than it is to be dragging this out and missing out on some possible new additions.
Of course, they shouldn’t be rushed into a bad deal. But this is why they need to exert pressure on the Bears. If you want Wilson, you need to come up with a specific arrangement by Sunday.
Then the Seahawks can do what they did in 2011 — enter the free agent market early and make some key signings to improve their roster.
Mike Silver suggested that a resolution should come by next week. I think the recent talk of quarterback replacements and possible new suitors is an indication that things are moving very quickly.
Clarity is needed soon, one way or another.
Is there any way to make this right with Wilson?
It does feel like we’re beyond that now. When Tony Pauline is reporting the Seahawks want to move on as much as Wilson, the writing feels like it’s on the wall.
It’s simply not realistic to ‘crack on’. You can’t go into the season with Wilson’s future being a weekly talking point. It would divide the locker room, destroy the culture, dominate the agenda and be a huge distraction.
Neither can you park this for 12 months only to go through the same song and dance again next year.
I see only one way to sort this out. It would mean Carroll ceding to Wilson’s wants and desires and then you’d probably have to extend his contract as a statement of commitment.
That would be the only way to send a message that Wilson and the Seahawks are staying together for the long haul.
The deal would likely have to match Dak Prescott’s contract or Patrick Mahomes’.
Personally, I don’t think it’s very likely. But I think that’s the only way they continue this relationship. If they try and co-exist with this situation mostly unresolved and with Mark Rodgers constantly in the ear of his media buddies, this will be a wasted season.
Notes on Sam Darnold
Last night I watched Darnold’s all-22 tape versus Seattle and LA. I also watched TV copy from four 2019 games.
I have no idea what the Jets were thinking last year.
Robbie Anderson was so critical for Darnold in 2019. He was by far his best weapon and a legit downfield X-factor. They let him walk in free agency and only replaced him with the mostly ineffective Breshad Perriman and second round rookie Denzel Mims.
Despite drafting Mekhi Becton, the rest of the offensive line was slapped together.
They had 37-year-old Frank Gore at running back and the defense was awful.
This was a shambolic roster. If I didn’t know any better I’d suggest they were tanking for Trevor Lawrence. It was no fit environment for any quarterback to thrive.
That’s the first thing to note with Darnold. It’s not making excuses to say he has been dealt an atrocious hand. Allowing Anderson to depart for Carolina alone was the pièce de résistance.
Even so, in the two 2020 games I watched I thought he played fairly well. They beat the Rams against the odds and he did a good job getting the ball out quickly, avoiding pressure and managing the game. Against the Seahawks he moved the ball well in the first half in the face of some heavy blitzing. The field goal kicker missing three easy kicks demoralised the team and the second half was a blow out.
Time and time again in the all-22, nothing was easy. The Jets offense was basic and uninventive. They didn’t have the talent to create easy separation or deliver a mismatch.
Darnold still produced some nice throws. There’s one against Seattle where the receiver does gain a nice release and is running across the field. Darnold spots him but still has to throw over traffic into the open area. The touch, accuracy and difficulty of the completion warrants raising.
As he throws, Jarran Reed is right in his face. You can see the open receiver #18 and that he’s slotted in behind the linebackers but in front of the safety:
This second image shows off the accuracy and the placement of the pass. Again, look at Reed’s proximity to the quarterback. Look where the receiver is and look at the defenders Darnold has to throw over to make this completion:
So while the receiver was open quickly in his route — the combination of pressure, the traffic he was throwing into and the need to anticipate the area to throw at, this was an excellent completion showing off Darnold’s capabilities:
Generally he threw with accuracy and timing. I was particularly impressed with his 2019 tape when he had better weapons. His arm strength is good enough to drive into tight windows and get the ball downfield. He doesn’t have the ‘flicked wrist’ velocity the best in the game have and there are times when he ‘effort-ball’ throws to try and create extra force. Even so, there are no obvious physical weaknesses.
He had one dropped pass against LA that was sublime — showing beautiful placement to the near corner of the end zone while throwing on the run. He had to extend the play on the move, keep his eyes downfield under pressure and the placement on the throw is just perfect. He has to torque his body to get this throw off. Both feet are off the ground, he’s twisted in the air and he still gets it forty-yards downfield on a dime.
The receiver just let it go straight through his hands:
If you want to see why the Jets were a mess last year, look at the routes the receivers run on this play. Three receivers are bunched together. They are clearly confused over what they should be doing. Two of them nearly run into each other — leading to Darnold having to scramble to extend the play:
Despite this, I was more impressed than I expected to be in terms of his field vision and knowing where to go with the football. His receivers gave him minimal help yet at times he still threw them open.
He’s only a 4.85 runner so he’s not a game-changer when plays break down. However, he does have some scrambling ability to extend plays and he does a good job keeping his eyes downfield.
Can he do what Shane Waldron wants? Look at this completion, where he leaves the pocket and moves to his right, then throws from an awkward angle to complete a pass to the receiver running across the 35-yard line:
This isn’t easy:
He also had a few ugly moments. This included a terrible throw straight at Jamal Adams who dropped what should’ve been an easy pick-six.
I’ve no idea why he didn’t see Adams lurking in the tall grass. He’s locked on to Braxton Berrios running an in-route and simply doesn’t notice Adams (who is stood on the logo reading Darnold’s eyes):
Adams’ ‘feet for hands’ moment leaves the ball on the turf but it should’ve been punished. It’s a terrible decision by Darnold under no noticeable pressure. It’s the kind of thing a top quarterback simply has to see.
Not only should he detect Adams’ presence — but if he comes off his initial read he’ll see #19 has gained separation from D.J. Reed and with no safety help, a big play opportunity was missed:
This speaks to one of the big issues with Darnold. He has 39 interceptions in three years compared to only 45 touchdowns. He had 22 interceptions in his two years starting at USC. He has been reckless.
It’s not the be-all and end-all. Peyton Manning had an incredible 100 interceptions in his first five years with the Colts. You can fix this, especially on a better team than USC or the Jets.
It is still something that you have to consider if you’re acquiring him. Can you live with the occasional ‘WTF?’ moment?
Alternatively — the Jets finished the 2019 season with a 6-2 record. In that period, Darnold had a 13:4 touchdown/interception ratio. That’s somewhat indicative that if he’s given the right environment he can produce results.
I’m not sure he has the upside or X factor of an elite QB. Can he carry a team on his back? I don’t think we’ve seen evidence of that.
To me he looks very capable of being a decent, solid player. Which is fine. If your expectation at the position is Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson — you’ll be disappointed.
Yet having had Wilson for the last nine seasons, Seahawks fans have come to expect a certain level of play. Darnold’s upside is more akin to Matt Stafford than any of the elite names listed above. I do think Stafford has more natural talent though.
We’re only three years removed from Darnold being rated by many as the best quarterback, perhaps even the best player, in the 2018 draft.
The Raiders GM Mike Mayock thought he was the top quarterback. He wasn’t a flawless prospect but it’s easy to forget just how highly regarded he was.
He was considered a franchise saver to some. Nobody challenged the Jets when they took him at #3. Obviously not everyone agreed. Cleveland preferred Baker Mayfield at #1 and the Giants, who needed a franchise quarterback, opted to select Saquon Barkley instead at #2.
Overall I think he’s a worthwhile investment for someone as a reclamation project. Sometimes a change of scenery is just what you need. That was clearly the case with Ryan Tannehill. Provide Darnold with a superior supporting cast and a better culture and there’s no reason why he can’t win you football games.
For Carroll he would be ideal. He’s mobile, throws well on the run, can hit big plays downfield, he won’t speak out, he’s measured and calm.
Would I rather have him or say a rookie with a veteran bridge? I think he gives you a better chance to be competitive in 2021. Yet I think some of the rookies have the potential to be better.
Regulars on the blog will know we’ve been talking about Kellen Mond and Davis Mills for some time. Mond in particular has a lot of ability. The thing is, I’m not convinced he’ll be there at #20 for the Seahawks. In my next mock, I’m going to pair him with the 49ers in round one (if they haven’t made a subsequent move by then).
Yet if you draft Mond you’re probably going to have to start 2021 with the possibility of an Alex Smith type winning the job. I just don’t think that’s the route Carroll will want to go down, compared to adding what he would consider a ready-made starter with long term potential.
Could they draft someone like Mond and still add Darnold? Possibly. I’m not sure that would be conducive to Darnold’s success though at a time when you’d need to be building him up.
Thoughts on Trey Lance’s pro-day
The overwhelming reaction from the workout was positive with media types everywhere heaping praise on Lance.
I watched every throw. I was nowhere near as convinced.
His accuracy was highly inconsistent with too many throws behind the receiver or a fraction high. Remember — he’s throwing against thin air here.
I can’t recall a recent pro-day with so many balls hitting the turf. I saw overthrows and under-throws. He’s toesy with his feet and his technique needs further work to sharpen up his accuracy.
On tape you see some of this show up. North Dakota State does a good job scheming to create wide-open targets. When he has to read plays, go through progressions and throw with anticipation — I thought Lance was lacking.
This isn’t a huge surprise given his limited number of starts. That in itself though is a cause for concern — especially when his accuracy was more miss than hit in a scripted environment designed to show off what he can do.
He has a great physique and all of the traits you want. In part, I think that’s why he got such a positive review. He looks the part. I think people were smitten with his physical appearance.
He did throw some nice passes, especially one long down-field bomb to the sideline that was inch perfect. His throws had velocity. Yet to me he looks incomplete and a significant project. He may need the same two-year learning curve that Josh Allen had — yet he doesn’t possess Allen’s super-human profile.
Allen was a gift from the football gods in terms of height, athleticism, arm strength, hand-size and mobility. Lance is good but not that good.
The hype is too much for me. It’s always possible a team becomes enamoured with the upside and takes him very early. I think he’s a fraction more appealing than Jordan Love and deserves to go in the same kind of range.
If you missed my interview with Payton Turner on Friday, check it out here:
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Pass rush is in the spotlight again for the Seahawks, following the release of Carlos Dunlap this week. Payton Turner is one of the better options in the draft. Check out the interview below and please share it around if you’re able.
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Also — this week, as well as our live stream, Jacson Bevens and I were invited on to the Pedestrian podcast for a further 80 minutes of Seahawks chat.
Check it out below:
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This is the ninth part of a guest-post series written by Curtis Allen
#9 linebackers
Players under contract for 2021: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven
Players under contract for 2022: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven
Restricted Free Agents: Shaquem Griffin
Unrestricted Free Agents: K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin
Exclusive Rights Free Agents: none
Practice Squad/Futures Candidates: none
Salary Cap Notes
2021 Cap Commitment: $21.9 million (12.5% of cap)
Bobby Wagner: $9.65m of $17m cap number non-guaranteed ($7.5m cap hit if cut or traded)
2020 Season Overview
The linebackers were clearly the centerpiece of the defense in 2020.
The Seahawks had Bobby Wagner in the first season of a market-setting contract at MIKE, resisted any thoughts of renegotiating or cutting KJ Wright and his $10m cap number at WILL, signed Bruce Irvin to play the SAM and flex to the edge in pass-rushing situations and drafted Jordyn Brooks with their first pick in the draft.
Cody Barton, Shaquem Griffin and Ben Burr-Kirven were also there.
Free agent acquisition Bruce Irvin was brought back into the fold and with his size and athletic profile was touted by Pete Carroll as ‘the perfect SAM’. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the second game of the season and was out for the year.
It was a blow to the defense but in a way, the injury turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
K.J. Wright was moved over to SAM and then back to WILL in nickel and performed marvelously. It began as a shift back to an old position but quickly blossomed into an opportunity to affect the play of the opposing offense from a different area.
We witnessed several great plays from him:
– Defending multiple passes in the Miami game
– Skying for a crazy interception in the Minnesota game
– Blowing past two hapless blockers on a screen in the first Arizona game to make a tackle
– Tap-dancing with Kyler Murray on a read option and stopping him for a loss on third down in the second Arizona game
Wright started the year as questionable to even be on the roster come September, as he had shoulder surgery and the Seahawks had drafted a linebacker in round one.
That $10m in cap savings was a juicy target as the Seahawks waited and waited and waited on pass rush help. It was an expensive season but no doubt it was a great season for Wright. If it is his last season in blue and green, Wright will have finished his Seahawks career on a high note.
Jordyn Brooks had a rough start. He was a head-scratching pick for Seattle but was highly praised by the front office after the draft. Unfortunately, he did not get the benefit of rookie camp or a full training camp due to the shortened offseason.
He was talked up as a potential K.J. Wright replacement in his rookie year but that never materialized. DC Ken Norton Jr noted in camp that Brooks ‘still has a long way to go.’
In the early going, getting on the field was tough. Then he got hurt and missed two games of action. When he returned though, he immediately took his spot on the defense and with time began to show flashes of why he was drafted so high. Knifing through blockers to make tackles and quickness around the edges were just what the Seahawks ordered after expressing disappointment in that area after the previous season.
Blowing up George Kittle attempting a run block and then tackling the ball carrier in Week 17 against San Francisco really got Seahawks fans reminiscing about the LOB days.
Cody Barton got stuffed into a locker with Brooks coming into town but got a chance to step in when Brooks got hurt in the early part of the season and an opportunity existed to perhaps keep the rookie on the bench with some good performances. He could not manage it.
Barton looked out of position, unsure of himself and lacked aggression, not unlike his rookie season. The play in the Minnesota game where he squarely met the ball carrier and then got driven for another five yards pretty much sums up his Seahawks career at linebacker to date. He did find a way to make himself useful on special teams though.
The fever dream of Shaquem Griffin being any kind of pass rush help has broken.
Ben Burr-Kirven only got 10 snaps on defense in 2020, mopping up in the Jets blowout in Week 14.
Bobby Wagner had another very good year. He earned a high grade from PFF and All-Pro honors for his play.
His best game of the year was easily Week 7 against San Francisco. He played that game on another level of aggression. Angry Bobby recorded two sacks, four pressures, two QB knockdowns and eleven tackles.
On one of his sacks, he rushed in and took on two blockers. He plowed into them and knocked them both to the ground like bowling pins and then had the presence of mind to get up and trip Garoppolo’s feet for the sack. It was a sight to behold.
Chasing Zach Ertz 40 yards downfield and making a fingertip breakup of a pass in Week 12 against Philly demonstrated some fantastic closing speed and a range not all middle linebackers have.
Another highlight was engineering the defense for the winning play at the goal line against New England in Week 2. His vision, knowledge and trust in his teammates coalesced for a beautiful moment in a game the Seahawks could have easily lost.
But it was not an easy year. In fact, 2020 might have been the toughest season in Wagner’s pro career. It could be argued that no one on the Seahawks was asked to do more in 2020 than Wagner – Russell Wilson included.
Consider the defensive support he was playing with. Or more accurately, his lack of support:
– A shambles of a defensive line that could not get pressure with the front four and struggled to keep him clean
– His unit being hit with injuries – particularly Irvin and Brooks. His top lieutenant had to flex over to a new position, then he was playing with Cody Barton and then breaking a rookie in for the balance of the season
– A defensive backfield that was constantly rotating injured players in and out and could not give very good run support
– Needing to account for a strong safety blitzing on about 12-15% of his snaps instead of the 1-2% he’s worked with his entire career
– Blitzing far more than he ever had before
– Working with a scheme that struggled to get off the field on third downs.
The result? He had career highs in defensive snaps, times targeted by quarterbacks AND number of blitzes. Now that is a workload.
He frequently was seen pre-snap gesticulating wildly to his teammates, after spotting trouble and trying to alert them and get them properly positioned. More than in previous seasons.
The first few weeks of the season, when the defense was giving up record yards and they were winning games by the skin of their teeth, Wagner’s post-game conferences were often the only beacon of truth from the team about the state of the defense.
Pete Carroll would be pumped and talking about how he ‘frickin loves these last-minute wins.’ Then Bobby would wearily take the podium and bluntly tell reporters he cannot take any joy in the win because the defense put them in the position of cutting it so close.
Fans became growingly concerned that Wagner had lost a step and was being visited by his own mortality. He certainly did not have the number of game-changing plays that was typical for him.
Combine that with being the highest-paid linebacker in the league and this is a lot of weight for a player to carry.
It was obvious Wagner was holding the defense together with both hands and it was occupying more of his attention than ever before.
Offseason Questions to Address
1. What will the linebackers’ role in this defense be in 2021?
Trivia question. Name the player the Seahawks most frequently blitzed in 2020.
Jamal Adams and his 98 blitzes? Close, but no.
The Seahawks blitzed Bobby Wagner 100 times in 2020.
That is up nearly 50% from the 71 times he blitzed in 2019.
That is up nearly 50% from the 41 times he blitzed in 2018.
Sensing a pattern here?
K.J. Wright counted for 72 blitzes in 2020 as well, also a career high as he moved over to the SAM spot.
A stat I did not mention about Wagner’s brilliant Week 7 game against San Francisco: he blitzed an incredible 17 times in that game, taking on some of the injured Jamal Adams’ blitzes.
Several times this season, the Seahawks sent two blitzers on plays.
Many of those times, the Seahawks used their $17million linebacker as an A-gap decoy so their two-first-round-picks strong safety could get free in order to generate pass pressure.
That is just a quick illustration of the scheme cost of the front office not paying proper attention to building a real defensive line.
The Seahawks really hit the trifecta in 2020: they twisted their scheme like taffy, hammered their salary cap and depleted their draft stock all in one offseason. All to obtain at best a passable version of a defense.
Is heavy blitzing on defense something that Pete Carroll and Ken Norton Jr intend to run? Because it bears little resemblance to the blueprint Pete originally rolled out when he came to Seattle.
The linebackers are being tasked with all their regular duties plus rushing the passer and covering for the blitzing strong safety. Not only is it unfamiliar territory but it is also not a wise use of your assets. The results in 2020 bear that out.
It should be noted that when the Seahawks acquired Carlos Dunlap, Wagner’s blitzes dropped dramatically. There is a correlation there.
Now Dunlap is gone and the Seahawks are again looking for answers on the defensive line.
So, what will this offseason bring? Just throw more resources at the defense and see what they have? Blitz Wagner 150 times?
Their super bowl winning defense was predicated on keeping the ball in front of you, minimizing big plays and getting off the field on third down. Linebackers were free to scream to the ball carrier and punish him. They rarely blitzed. It is a far cry from what that defense is now.
Now, zones of the field are abandoned, gaps behind the line of scrimmage are bigger and players in the backfield are left as the last line of defense far too frequently. Clever offensive coordinators seriously exploited this defense and there is no indication that trend will stop in 2021.
They need to decide what they want the linebackers to do and account for it on the defense. Blitzing two players frequently is riskier than day old sushi.
2. Do they move on from Bobby Wagner?
Wagner has combined with Russell Wilson to make 2012 one of the all-time great drafts. He has been everything the Seahawks could have possibly hoped for and more.
But with the time has come to have the uncomfortable conversation. His salary and age make it necessary to scrutinize whether they need to swallow hard and move on.
Arguments for trading him
– $17m per season his simply too much money for any MLB regardless of age. Wagner is making slightly more on his contract than CJ Mosely on his market-bender of a contract but 20% more than the next highest-paid player at the position. That is not in any way ideal.
– The Seahawks just spent a first-round pick on a LB. They likely felt justified spending such a high pick on a LB knowing the day a decision on Wagner would come.
– ‘Better a year too early than a year too late’ is rapidly becoming part of the conversation.
– They badly need an infusion of cheap talent and they are very limited in draft stock this year.
– He has trade value. It might not be in the first or early second round range. Yet there is no doubt several teams will be thrilled to add Wagner to their roster. It would give them defensive legitimacy and instantly add smarts and leadership to their entire team.
Arguments against trading him
– The Seahawks have dug themselves a hole. Wagner is their best player on defense and they do not have many others that are even close. 2020 might not have been his best season but make no mistake; he earned his entire salary captaining this mess of a defense. So far, 2021 is not tracking much differently. So they may have to pay the piper by once again having a huge number on the cap at the MIKE spot.
– If the Seahawks do trade Russell Wilson, they will have a serious void of star power and leadership in the locker room. There would be a bit of a ‘will the last guy out of the Seahawks locker room please turn out the lights’ fatalism going on among fans and it would be justified. Keeping him and putting him front and center as part of the ‘next phase’ effort would go a long way towards maintaining some legitimacy.
– Bobby Wagner is a known quantity. The $9m of cap relief trading him would bring is not. There is an underlying mistrust of the front office among fans. It is not hard to imagine the Seahawks taking that $9m and buying three low-impact players at $3m each and calling it good. And now they are fielding Cody Barton and Jordyn Brooks as their starting linebackers. Therefore, not only would the team have not solved their issues on the defensive line but they have also now significantly weakened the strongest part of the roster on defense. That just cannot happen.
– He only has a $3.75m dead cap hit in 2022 when the Seahawks have an enormous amount of cap room. There is a strong argument for converting some 2021 salary to a bonus, kicking another $3.75m or so onto that 2022 number for around a $7.5m dead cap hit and trading or cutting him in 2022. That would accomplish 3 things: You make some 2021 cap room, keep Wagner on your roster and a $7.5m dead cap hit in a year of massive room is not a bad bargain. You also gain a whopping $16m of cap room in 2022 when the Seahawks move on from him.
3. Do they bring K.J. Wright back?
Ask any fan that question going into the 2020 season and you would get a resounding ‘no’ to bringing Wright back. A big cap hit and Jordyn Brooks along with Wright’s age and likely salary demands made that call easy.
Well, K.J. had other plans. A fantastic season has forced his name back into the conversation.
It still might be too much of a reach to bring him back. They have a decision to make on Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks looks ready to take the SAM/WILL spot Wright occupied in 2020, if not the MIKE spot in 2021.
More than once K.J. has gone on record as saying he is not giving the Seahawks a discount to play for them going forward. He has every right to that stance after having a fantastic and frankly underrated career in Seattle.
However, the market reality is going to hit several players this offseason and Wright might be among them.
This could be a player the Seahawks play the long game with. If he gets a nice contract for another team, we can all salute him as one of the all-time great Seahawks and wish him well on his new team.
However, there is a scenario that is easy to envision where Wright is not signed through the first wave and the draft and come summertime still has not found a team. The Seahawks could be in a position to offer him a mutually beneficial one-year deal that keeps him in the fold and lets him test the market again in 2022.
Of course, that would have to be after the Seahawks have settled their other top priorities like the lines on both sides and have added a cornerback or two to the roster.
4. Is 2021 Cody Barton’s last chance to make his mark at linebacker in Seattle?
This will be his third season after a very checkered two seasons at linebacker. The Seahawks drafting a linebacker in the first round last year was a damning statement about how they view him. Further strengthening that statement was his play in 2020 and the fact that the Seahawks benched him the minute Jordyn Brooks was healthy.
Pete Carroll attempted to prop him up a couple of times in the press. Once acknowledging that Barton made mistakes the prior week but saying he knows what he did and would not make them again. The following week he got trucked by the Vikings and was not seen again on the defense until two months later when he came in on mop-up duty in the Jets blowout.
Fan confidence is low. Coaches’ confidence is low. Can he take some of the mojo he gained by being a Special Teams demon and force his way into the conversation for regular playing time at linebacker in 2021?
It is unfortunate that this is where Seattle is with Barton. If he were playing at ‘adequate-starter’ level, the Seahawks could easily clear Wagner and Wright’s salaries off the books and strengthen other areas of the team.
Ken Norton Jr is a linebacker and a linebacker coach at heart. If he can get Barton turned into a useful piece of the defense in 2021, it will have been a fantastic piece of coaching but nobody should bet the house on it.
Rob’s Thoughts on the Draft Class and Potential Targets
We’ve often talked about the importance of elite agility and overall athleticism when it comes to Seattle’s preferences at the position. With no combine this year, it’s very difficult to pinpoint who might be on their radar.
Baron Browning is an outstanding athlete with great length, speed and explosive traits. Cam McGrone is one of the more underrated players in this class — he’s incredibly quick to work through traffic and just fly’s to the ball.
Justin Hilliard had a terrific end to the 2020 season (especially against Northwestern). He’s undersized but really quick and he packs a punch for his frame. Dylan Moses was once considered a top-end prospect but his star faded after suffering an ACL injury.
Monty Rice is solid if unspectacular and former quarterback Chaz Surratt has a decent level of physical upside but is still really learning the position. Auburn’s KJ Britt had a great Senior Bowl game and plays with anger and intensity. He’s been praised for his work ethic and attitude.
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There are a lot of connected people when it comes to Russell Wilson.
Colin Cowherd is close to Seattle’s quarterback. Mike Florio and Jason La Canfora use Mark Rodgers as a source. Adam Schefter clearly gets info from the Wilson camp.
There’s another journalist who is particularly reliable when it comes to the Seahawks.
On December 17th, 2017, Michael Silver shocked the NFL.
Many people questioned the validity of the report because it seemed so outrageous. Especially the Bennett news. Much like the current Russell Wilson chatter, the recurring theme was he couldn’t be traded due to the financial penalty the Seahawks would incur.
Yet it all came true. Every last word.
It was the end of the LOB era.
Now, Silver is on the case regarding Wilson’s future.
Initially he revealed the starting point for trade talks would be three first round picks. Last week, he said the situation was far worse than he initially thought. He suggested the Seahawks wouldn’t be doing their jobs properly if they didn’t listen to trade offers, making it clear that’s what they were doing.
“There is smoke and there is fire. We don’t know what the outcome’s going to be but there absolutely are trade talks between the Seahawks and other teams.”
“Remember, this isn’t just the Seahawks saying, ‘hey we want to see what’s out there’. You have a player who is clearly very, very unhappy and I think people are naive, who would look at a situation where a players agent publicly says, ‘we’re not saying we want to get traded but these four teams are the ones if we get traded’. If you think that is normal for a player who wants to stay with his current team, to put out publicly you’re vastly misreading this situation.”
“Right now it is absolutely frosty and this is a fluid situation and I think we’ll have a lot more resolution by next week.”
So there you go.
If this is going to happen, it has to be done by next week. Any buying team needs to be able to plan accordingly and so do the Seahawks. You can’t start building a roster in free agency and then trade your quarterback after the first flush.
Neither can you sign free agents with uncertainty hanging over the franchise. Who is going to commit to Seattle with this issue lingering? Likewise, let’s say the Bears trade for Wilson. That’s a major recruiting tool they otherwise won’t have.
So one way or another this needs to be done by the 15th March, unless the NFL delays the start of free agency due to the mystery surrounding the salary cap.
That means some form of public truce between the Seahawks and Wilson — potentially with a statement move such as a contract extension.
Or it means parting ways.
I wanted to raise two other issues today.
Firstly, what does it say about the state of this team when DJ Reed is tweeting this immediately after Carlos Dunlap was cut?
If I were the Seahawks I’d be quite concerned that someone like Reed feels emboldened to criticise the Dunlap decision.
It makes you wonder what the social media reaction will be if they trade away a franchise quarterback.
What are the players thinking right now? They’ll be seeing all this Russell Wilson trade stuff doing the rounds. Clearly Wilson is unhappy and will talk to other members of the team who might share his frustration.
The fallout of trading Wilson could be significant, short of making a subsequent power move like trading for Deshaun Watson (which is frankly impossible when you don’t have your native picks to pair with any additional picks you get for Wilson).
This isn’t franchise mode on Madden where you end up with loads of resources and just carry on. Players will react to a Wilson trade. They will have opinions. They might feel like if they create enough of a fuss they can get out too.
Keeping the lid on this is going to be extremely difficult. The problem is — I’m not sure forcing a clearly unhappy Russell Wilson to stick around is a better option. Either situation seems highly toxic.
Next, if a Wilson trade occurs there will need to be subsequent moves made by the Seahawks. For all the talk of rebuilding if it happens, there is no way Pete Carroll will see it that way. He and John Schneider will set out to create a competitive team.
Whether they achieve it or not is a different matter. Yet they won’t be playing a long game.
Silver provided some thoughts on what happens next…
It’s interesting that he’s already talking about life beyond Wilson and perhaps even revealing what Seattle’s plan is.
If/when Wilson is dealt, it appears they will make a corresponding trade for another quarterback rather than rely solely on the draft.
As noted before, they simply don’t have the firepower to deal for Deshaun Watson. They don’t have their own picks thanks to the Jamal Adams trade. Teams like Miami and the New York Jets possess multiple first and second rounders and they can offer an easy route to a replacement QB in the top five.
You might suggest that Watson would prefer to come to Seattle. Really? Right after Russell Wilson just forced his way out?
Even if the Seahawks acquired three firsts and three seconds from the Bears, that probably wouldn’t be enough to simply parlay into a Watson trade.
So who else is out there?
Sam Darnold might be an option. It’s easy to forget that in 2018, a lot of teams had him graded as the top player in the draft (or at least the top quarterback). He was seen as a potential franchise saver.
It hasn’t worked for him in New York amid a chaotic situation.
There are a couple of issues here.
Firstly, what is the compensation? For a mid-round pick, Darnold’s a worthwhile flier. Are the Jets willing to let him go for that kind of price though, even as they seemingly prepare to draft a new quarterback with the #2 pick?
The last time the Seahawks negotiated a somewhat desperate trade with the Jets, they ended up giving away a kings ransom.
I would argue anything more than a third rounder would be pushing it for a player who hasn’t shown enough in three years in the NFL to think he’s franchise quarterback material, regardless of how he was viewed coming into the league.
Secondly, he’s in the final year of his rookie contract. You could use the fifth year option in 2022. After that, he’d need a new deal. So there’s little long-term security here and not much in the way of financial benefit.
If the Seahawks wanted Darnold their best bet would probably be to wait until the Jets (presumably) take Zach Wilson with the second pick. By that point, they’d have no leverage and time would be of the essence.
However, look at the 2019 draft. The Arizona Cardinals took Kyler Murray with the #1 pick. They didn’t trade Josh Rosen until day two of the draft — and they still got the #62 pick back in a trade. Granted, Rosen had years left on his rookie contract. Even so, it’s not obvious whether you’d get much of a discount if you waited all the way until the end of April for Darnold.
Making matters worse — there are still suggestions that the 49ers might make a move here, despite recent public backing for Jimmy Garoppolo. The thought of the Seahawks getting overly aggressive in a trade battle with a division rival over a quarterback is terrifying. The thought of the Seahawks making any kind of aggressive trade is terrifying, given their track record (Harvin, Graham, Richardson, Adams).
Jordan Love could be an option. Again, it will largely depend on what Seattle’s impression of Love was going into the 2020 draft.
The Packers drafted him to be the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers. Yet Rodgers went on to win the MVP and play some of the best football of his career. He turns 38 in December but doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Tom Brady has also shown age is just a number these days, as long as you keep producing.
Green Bay only gets another three years of generous club control with Love. They may decide it’s best to wait and see what happens for another year or two. Or they may decide to show some commitment to Rodgers, given what he achieved last year, by trading Love and using that stock to improve the existing roster.
I’m not sure they could realistically expect to get a first round pick back. Depending on how a team viewed Love, a second rounder could be plausible.
It’d be the same kind of situation as Rosen. You couldn’t really blame the Packers for trying to plan ahead and then deciding, with hindsight, they’re better off just doing whatever they can to support Rodgers.
Love flashed extreme physical potential at Utah State but there were question marks relating to his processing and decision making. If the Seahawks did deal for him he’d only cost $1.1m this year, $1.7m next year and $2.2m in 2023. That in itself would be valuable. It all comes down to how you graded him a year ago and whether you believe you can win with him.
Marcus Mariota and Gardner Minshew could be targets. Mariota would need to re-work his contract because his salary jumps from $10m to $20m if he starts. Minshew would be cheap and cheerful. If nothing else he’d provide some fireworks. With both players you would need to add competition, either from a veteran or a rookie.
A more outlandish suggestion could be Matt Ryan but the Falcons appear set on him starting in 2021 with a quarterback being drafted with the #4 or #35 pick to develop.
Silver is pretty clear though that if Wilson is dealt, they’re going to go hunting for someone they think they can win with. None of these options are going to ‘wow’ anybody. The reality is, if they deal Wilson — which is possible — they’re going to replace him with someone you’re pretty underwhelmed with. The key is going to be whether they can utilise their new found cap space and picks to create a roster capable of competing.
After all, this is a list to remember:
2015 — The Broncos win the Super Bowl with an ineffective Peyton Manning at quarterback, having spent the regular season rotating with Brock Osweiler
2017 — Nick Foles vs Case Keenum in the NFC Championship game
2017 — Nick Foles wins the Super Bowl and is named MVP
2017 — Blake Bortles plays in the AFC Championship game and comes within minutes of reaching the Super Bowl
2018 — Jared Goff plays in the Super Bowl
2019 — Jimmy Garoppolo plays in the Super Bowl
2019 — Ryan Tannehill plays in the AFC Championship game
Not to mention Eli Manning won the Super Bowl twice and Joe Flacco also won the Super Bowl and was named MVP.
So while it is clearly important to have a very good quarterback — recent history tells us success is not exclusive to those with a top-five signal caller.
Nobody has traded away a franchise QB in his prime for an obscene amount of compensation. The Seahawks, if they do it, will be a litmus test for the rest of the league. Paying an elite quarterback versus trading them for a haul. Managing the cap and spreading out your resources. It’ll be fascinating to see what the results are.
This is especially true in light of Dallas’ mega-deal with Dak Prescott.
One of Wilson’s four preferred destinations is also now off the table. Will he replace them with another suitor? Will the Bears or Saints make a big move in the coming days?
Will people start taking this seriously and stop obsessing about dead-cap hits and the fact the Bears only own the #20 pick this year?
It should be an interesting week.
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Adding some nuance to the narratives around a Russell Wilson trade
This is a guest post from Curtis Allen
The Russell Wilson trade drama has really shifted into gear in the last three weeks and it has rightly dominated the sports landscape in Seattle.
Several one-line narratives have emerged in the media about a potential trade and they keep being repeated over and over and over again.
This presents a challenge — there is a bit of a danger of these simple viewpoints hardening like concrete.
As we all know, one-line narratives rarely reveal the breadth and width and depth of the situation. Particularly a situation that could shift the balance of power across the league and reshape the face of Seahawks football as we know it for the next 10 years.
– A superstar player being unhappy with one of the NFL’s premier organizations
– A potential trade that could be one of the biggest in NFL history
– Four flagging franchises that could be revitalized by the acquisition of a franchise quarterback in his prime
– One of the NFL’s most decorated coaches starting a whole new cycle of his professional career at a time when most coaches retire and doing it on his terms
This is far, far too big a story to just be dismissed with 10 word answers, no matter how emphatically they are said. Simple answers can blind you to the reality of the situation and only muddy perspectives at a time when truth and objectivity needs every single word it can get its hands on. Every fissure of this story needs to be explored. Nuance is critical.
So here are some thoughts on the narratives that are being discussed in relation to this potentially massive event.
Narrative: The $39m dead cap hit is a big obstacle to a pre-June 1st Russell Wilson trade
Why the narrative has merit:
$39m is over 20% of the total 2021 salary cap for the Seahawks. Having one fifth of your cap dedicated to a player not on your roster is a serious blow to your efforts to build a contending roster in 2021.
There is more resistance to a trade when that player is an all-time Seahawks great.
Even more resistance is added when the reason for eating dead cap is not because he is injured, retired or suspended by the league. He is in his prime and will be lighting it up for another team and perhaps taking them deep in the playoffs.
It would be a particularly hard pill to swallow.
Nuance: The Seahawks have the flexibility available to absorb the hit and not need to shred their roster
The team currently has $4m of cap room. Trading Russell Wilson away will eat $7m of cap room and put them in the red.
Any proceeds from a trade, such as players and 2021 draft picks will lower that number even further.
Further lowering the cap is the fact that they will then need to add a quarterback to the roster.
Here is the good news: The Seahawks currently have over $72million of “movable cap space” on their roster. What is that?
It is non-guaranteed money owed to players. The 2021 cap hit can easily be lowered to get the team under the cap by any combination of negotiating their contract down, extending, restructuring, cutting or trading players.
Furthermore, if the Seahawks trade Russell Wilson, they will have approximately $178million of cap room in 2022 to work with. They could easily push some 2021 money into the following season.
They can operate in the same way in the free agent market. They could get creative, crafting contracts with a minimal hit in 2021 and a bigger hit in 2022.
Will they be handcuffing themselves in the future with bloated contracts for ageing players? That is the beauty of it – they won’t. Any downside of using future cap is more than counterbalanced by the return of trading their biggest roster asset.
With a huge haul of draft picks and no top three quarterback salary to pay, the Seahawks will reap a double benefit of having nearly half of their roster stocked with cheap young talent that can contribute right away, veteran players who can provide leadership and still play at a very high level and bunches of cap room to make major moves in the market.
Will it take some clever structuring by the Seahawks? Yes.
Will it cause some sleepless nights, not having a franchise QB locked on your roster? Yes.
Is it a workable solution to the current standoff? Yes.
Is it preferable to a miserable 2021 with an unhappy Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll trying to coexist? Yes.
****
Narrative: You trade Wilson and you can write off the next three seasons while you rebuild
Why the narrative has merit:
A true franchise quarterback is the most sought-after commodity in the NFL.
He can cover up, minimize or simply overcome a multitude of roster holes in other areas. Seahawks fans have had a front row seat to witness that with Russell Wilson, particularly in 2020.
Any team that trades their franchise quarterback is immediately tasked with filling the biggest hole on their roster.
Nuance: The hefty return the Seahawks would receive in trade opens up all kinds of options to remain competitive
The magnitude of the return means the Seahawks can get both a top level player or two that provide instant productivity and multiple draft picks to inject youth and talent into the roster. Those holes that had to be covered by a franchise QB are no longer holes.
As noted above, the Seahawks also all of the sudden have enough cap room to immediately buy the top free agent at any position they choose in 2022 if they like.
They would be in a position to assess the QB prospects in the 2021 draft and make a move.
Seattle would also be a very intriguing destination for a free agent QB.
Want to come to Seattle and play for a Super Bowl winning coach? Get fawned over by the local media and never asked a tough question in your life?
Throw to two of the best wide receivers in the game?
Get protected by Duane Brown and some young bucks on the interior?
Get supported by a stout defense headlined by a Mack or a Lattimore along with Bobby Wagner and Carlos Dunlap?
A trade like this also puts them back in their wheelhouse. They absolutely excel when they have resources, build depth and allow opportunities to come to them. They can focus on maximizing value and talent over need in the draft and the free agent market.
When they have extra cap room and draft picks to trade, they are able to add high-value players at a very reasonable cost, whether in the post-draft market or in-season.
This offseason will likely see many opportunities to add talented veteran players at very affordable prices if they play their cards right.
This has always been a better place for them. When they reach to fill needs, they frequently only fill their hands with trouble.
****
Narrative: Even with a raft of picks Pete Carroll and John Schneider can’t draft well enough to rebuild successfully
Why the narrative has merit:
LJ Collier. Darrell Taylor. Malik McDowell. Cody Barton. Rashaad Penny.
You don’t need to look too far to find draft misses on this team.
Nuance: There has been a measure of effectiveness in building the team in recent seasons. This will also energize the Front Office’s focus like no other move.
Damien Lewis, Jordyn Brooks, DK Metcalf in the draft.
Poona Ford in the UDFA market. DJ Reed in the waiver market.
Quandre Diggs and Carlos Dunlap as fantastic in-season value trades.
There has been success. John Schneider has not completely lost his touch.
Consider this though: There is an added dimension when trading Wilson. It would be a return to a state where John Schneider and Pete Carroll operate at their best.
They have proven to be much stronger at building a winner than maintaining a winner.
Being free of a quarterback with a massive salary, an even bigger public persona, and very specific public demands about the offense and personnel allows them to reshape the team in their vision.
In trading Wilson, they will have taken on a massive challenge. It will no doubt focus their minds and their efforts like no other task they have recently faced. There is something about taking on a big risk that brings clarity and focus to the mind unlike anything else.
At the same time, it will re-invigorate both of them. How often do you get to build a team up to a Super Bowl champion and stay long enough to move on from nearly all the players from that team? And then start over with a bonanza of draft picks, a top-flight player or two and massive cap room added to a roster that already has talent?
The opportunity is tantalizing.
They both received contract extensions recently. The plain fact is they aren’t going anywhere. There would be tremendous incentive to make this work.
****
Narrative: Fans will abandon the Seahawks in droves for trading Russell Wilson.
Why the narrative has merit:
They’d be trading one of the most successful and well-liked players in franchise history.
Nuance: While the fans would rightly be upset over the team trading Wilson there is no doubt the next two seasons will absolutely capture our interest.
Fan interest in the 2021 draft will skyrocket. The Seahawks will go from having only three or four draft picks to having many more and be big time players on draft day.
Training camp will be abuzz with all the new players and everyone will want to get a look at the rookies and see how they fit on the team. Excitement about the defense will return and be justified this time.
The in-season weekly discussion will have a complete breath of fresh air to it. Rather than discussing stale topics like “Let Russ Cook” or how poorly the defense has performed, the focus will shift to a tough defense and marvelling at the next stage in DK Metcalf’s development into one of the all time greats.
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