Today’s practise at the Senior Bowl has been moved indoors due to bad weather. The extremely limited coverage on the NFL Network could be non-existent today as a consequence.
For that reason I wanted to spend a bit more time discussing yesterday’s report from Tony Pauline regarding Austin Hooper:
“Austin Hooper is another soon-to-be free agent tight end who is expected to sign a big contract once the frenzy begins. Where could Hooper land?
“Speculation here in Mobile says the Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are teams expected to court Hooper. Don’t leave out the Washington Redskins, who may be ready to move on from Jordan Reed who has struggled with injuries.”
It’s not a surprise that the Seahawks are among the teams listed with apparent interest. They will add a tight end at some point during the off-season.
Will Dissly has suffered two serious injuries in just over a year. As talented as Dissly is, they’re in a position now of needing to find out whether he can stay healthy.
Ed Dickson will be cut, freeing up $3m in cap space. Jacob Hollister and Tyrone Swoopes are the only other tight ends on the roster. Hollister is a restricted free agent and Swoopes an exclusive rights free agent. They’d presumably have interest in bringing back Hollister — but not as TE1 or TE2.
Seattle’s offense felt the loss of Dissly. It’s in part why they went out and signed Josh Gordon. They need a safety net and a dynamic target, especially for key third downs.
There are options in the draft but it isn’t a strong class of tight end’s. We’ll need to see how the group measures and works out at the combine to get a full reading of the realistic options. However, this is a strong draft class for wide receiver’s and offensive linemen. It might be wise to try and address other needs (D-line, tight end) in free agency to max out the potential of the 2020 draft class.
The Seahawks have a history of making a splash at the tight end position. They made a bold move to sign Zach Miller to a big contract in 2011. They then traded a first round pick for Jimmy Graham in 2015. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they made another big move in free agency for someone like Austin Hooper.
So why is he a realistic target?
Firstly, let’s talk about the player. At the mid-way point of the 2019 season he was one of the few bright spots for the Falcons. As Oliver Hodgkinson notes, he was performing as one of the top tight end’s in the league by week six.
An injury and missing three games stalled some of his progress but he still finished the season with a strong stat line of 75 receptions, 787 yards, six touchdowns, 96 targets, 313 yards after the catch and 41 first downs in 2019. He only dropped one pass all season and averaged 60.5 yards per game.
He’s been a consistent reliable target throughout his time in Atlanta. You can often learn a lot from how fans feel about a player. Cory Woodroof wrote this piece for the Falcoholic, suggesting it would be a “colossal mistake” to lose Hooper in free agency.
The problem for Atlanta is cap space. They’re currently projected to have $7.5m available in 2020. Yet unlike the Jaguars (who can cut Marcell Dareus and create $20m immediately), there’s no obvious way to create room.
They’ve paid a lot of players but the structure of the contracts is hampering their flexibility. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Jake Matthews, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett and Desmond Trufant are all on big money. Yet their middle class is also handsomely paid.
For example, Devonta Freeman’s cap hit in 2020 is $9.5m. Yet the structure of the deal means they’d have to eat $6m in dead salary to cut or trade him. There’s virtually no saving. James Carpenter’s cap hit in 2020 is $5.1m. The dead salary hit is $4.1m. If they cut Freeman and Carpenter they only save $4m and both players would need to be replaced.
There’s nothing wrong with trying to pump up the middle class of your roster — but you have to create contracts that enable you to move on when needs be.
The two big ways they can save money is to trade or cut top center Alex Mack ($8m saving) or cut/trade Keanu Neal ($6.4m saving). Again though — both players would need to be replaced and you’re talking about two players you’d rather keep.
They are stuck in a situation of having to make a judgement call on Hooper. They can’t really transition or franchise tag him because it would cost +$8m or +$10m respectively. So they have to decide is he so good that they can afford to lose a player like Mack or Neal in order to keep him?
I suspect they will move on. Throughout Matt Ryan’s career he’s done an excellent job with any tight end he’s been given to work with — whether it’s a Hall of Fame talent like Tony Gonzalez, Levine Toilolo, Jacob Tamme or Hooper. Considering they have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley at receiver, they might feel like they can plug in a cheap replacement and succeed without needing to gut their roster.
ESPN’s Falcons reporter Vaughn McClure expects Hooper to leave Atlanta:
“The Falcons, with so much money tied up in top players such as Ryan, Julio Jones, Jarrett, and Deion Jones, will pass on signing Hooper to a lucrative extension and let him sign elsewhere. And Hooper will exceed $10 million per year with his new team. Meanwhile, the Falcons will see what they have in Jaeden Graham, who filled in nicely when Hooper was hurt this past season and is due to make $585,000 in 2020. The Falcons also will look hard at the draft class to find a potential pass-catching threat.”
So while the Los Angeles Chargers have the flexibility to tag Hunter Henry if they wish and keep him from reaching the market, the Falcons will likely allow Hooper to become a free agent.
As mentioned, the Seahawks have placed a high value on the tight end position. Hooper also fits what they look for. He’s a good blocker and a useful receiver. He’s well sized at 6-4 and 254lbs and can line-up in any formation. He has the length they crave (34 inch arms) and he has the agility they like.
The three cone and short shuttle appear to be important tests for the Seahawks and tight end’s. Here’s the evidence based on the player’s they’ve acquired in the Pete Carroll era:
Short shuttle times
Luke Willson — 4.29 at pro-day
Will Dissly — 4.40 (8th best in 2018)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (2nd best in 2016)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57
Zach Miller — 4.42
Jimmy Graham — 4.45
Hooper ran a 4.32 short shuttle and a 7.00 three cone. Physically he ticks every box and he has the production, versatility and age to appeal as a big free agent target.
It won’t be a surprise if they’re willing to pay a salary towards the top-end of the market — around $10m a year. They will have a limit, of course, and Carroll may well be attempting a recruitment job on Hooper at the Pro-Bowl this week to aid any future negotiations.
It would be a competitive market though. The weak draft class at tight end and the likelihood of Hunter Henry not reaching free agency would make Hooper one of the star attractions. He’s only just turned 25, he blocks well and he’s a dynamic target as a receiver. He might not be Travis Kelce or George Kittle but he’d be in the next tier.
The Cardinals have $51m to spend in 2020 currently but have very little scope to create more. They should focus on rebuilding their offensive line but might feel the addition of a top tight end will do just as much for Kyler Murray’s development. The Packers have $29m to spend but can create $8m more by cutting Jimmy Graham. They could simply transfer Graham’s salary to Hooper.
Pauline noted the Redskins too. Ron Rivera knows the value of a good tight end. Greg Olsen was a huge part of his success in Carolina. Washington has $46m to spend and can easily create more. Cutting Josh Norman would save $12m, trading Trent Williams would save $12.5m, trading Ryan Kerrigan would save $11.6m and cutting Jordan Reed would save $8.5m.
If there’s a team who could really make a big pitch for Hooper — it’s Washington. Whether Rivera is capable of diluting some of the Redskins’ reputation for being a lousy organisation remains to be seen. They are in a strong position to be very aggressive in free agency though, especially as they start a new era.
The Seahawks are in a strong position too of course — with a healthy $69m in cap space projected overall and the ability to create more. They also have the offer of Russell Wilson and a much more positive organisational structure.
Yes — the big need is defensive line. It’s not the only need though. They have the cap flexibility to make multiple moves this year. This isn’t going to be a one or two player fix. Carroll is at the Pro-Bowl for a reason. He knows they need an injection of talent onto the roster and this is likely to be the busiest Seattle has been in a long time in terms of talent acquisition.
If they can add to their D-line and the tight end position before the draft, it’ll free them up to really tap into the strength of the 2020 class. They can get a receiver, some offensive line help and maybe add even more to the defense.
This doesn’t mean Hooper is the only option. Let’s see if a trade market emerges for players like O.J. Howard, David Njoku and maybe even Evan Engram. Howard and Engram would likely cost high picks however plus the inevitable large extension. The benefit with Hooper is you’re not paying out twice (draft + salary) and he has better production and consistency in the NFL.
Amid a likely influx of D-line additions, there is room for a tight end signing. Hooper is a strong option for the Seahawks and one to monitor.
Gregg Rosenthal posted a top-25 list of pending free agents recently. Hooper just missed the cut, along with Dante Fowler and Arik Armstead. All three could be strong options for Seattle.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s big review of days one and two at the Senior Bowl. Here are some notes from day two’s drills (video below).
North team
The first rep is a reasonable job by Colt McKivitz. He plays inside/out against Joshu Uche and forces him wide. As a tackle sometimes you’ve just got to make the pass rusher take the longest route to the quarterback and it’s up to the QB to get the ball out.
Neville Gallimore is held at bay on the second rep by Hakeem Adeniji. The two shared another rep later in the video and Adeniji won again. Then it’s the return of the Jason Stowbridge show. He just beats Nick Harris with a swipe to the left shoulder to create separation and then he uses his speed to burst into the backfield. Stowbridge has boosted his stock this week.
Then McKivitz handles Carter Coughlin of Minnesota with a nice punch and control. Darrion Daniels does well to leverage Jonah Jackson back into the pocket before Larrell Murchison beats Matt Hennessy with a nice spin move and whipped him again later in the video. Ben Bredeson’s first rep at 1:15 is reasonable. He could do with planting the anchor though because he cedes too much ground, even if the stays in front and in some control.
At 1:23 Josh Jones is blasted backwards by Alton Robinson. He does well to recover but when you’re driven deep into your own backfield on initial contact you’re clinging on by that point.
Hennessy’s second rep, this time against Davon Hamilton, is better. He keeps his feet moving and balanced and controls the block. Nick Harris struggles on the next rep and is driven backwards into the QB’s lap. Harris struggled in 1v1’s yesterday but looked a lot more comfortable during scrimmage.
Matt Peart’s hand placement is still wrong. He’s too wide and grabbing on the outside shoulder. He will be penalised for holding too often and can’t engage properly with this poor technique.
Charlie Heck has struggled this week and his battle against Joshua Uche was a cake-walk for the Michigan man. Uche set him up with the threat of a speed rush to the outside and Heck gave up the inside with no resistance. His footwork is poor and he doesn’t engage. It’s too easy.
On the final rep, Kenny Willekes beats McKivitz with a nice dip and bend.
South team
Logan Stenberg dominates Robert Windsor (as he has done all week) on the first rep. Stenberg just looks the part and would be a great fit at left or right guard.
Javon Kinlaw slips on the second rep but gathers himself and beats Lloyd Cushenberry on the next go-around. He limped back to the line though. Hopefully it’s nothing too serious.
John Simpson plants Josiah Coatney into the grand on the next rep. They run it again and it’s another win for Simpson, this time controlling Coatney comfortably.
Calvin Throckmorton has just arrived in Mobile after attending the Shrine Game and he gives up an easy inside-counter to Jonathan Greenard on his first rep. Then Jabari Zuniga takes a long path to the QB but still does a good job rounding Terence Steele. They replay the rep and this time Steele wins easily. Zuniga offers no counter and can’t disengage.
Logan Stenberg then demolishes Trevis Gipson. This is such a smart rep from Stenberg. He knows Gipson is light and will try to use his speed. So he anticipates contact. He locks on and uses Gipson’s own momentum to send him to the turf. This is so positive — knowing the situation, what kind of rush to expect, how to handle it and executing.
They then replay the rep and Gipson tries to run to the outside. Stenberg just stones him with power and control. If someone said Stenberg ended up sneaking into round one, I wouldn’t have an issue with it.
Cushenberry has a good rep against Benito Jones to follow before John Simpson loses the rematch with Josiah Coatney. Throckmorton’s second rep against DJ Wonnum is a lot better. He reads the outside rush and runs him out of the play. They give him a second rep and the same thing happens.
Alex Taylor does a good job handling Jonathan Greenard before Damien Lewis equally beats Jabari Zuniga. They replay the Lewis vs Zuniga match-up and Lewis dumps him on his backside. This was not a good look for Zuniga at all. TKO to Lewis. They give Zuniga a third rep and again Lewis handles him. What a beating.
Day three notes
Due to the poor weather in Mobile the practise took place indoors. That meant even more limited TV coverage today. Here are some brief notes.
Houston offensive tackle Josh Jones is a bit overrated. All week people have been hyping him up but his performance on the field hasn’t lived up to the chatter. Today, for the first time, he looked comfortable and talented.
That’s fine, of course. You want to see players reach a crescendo at the end of the week and take on coaching. The two reps below are much better examples of tackle play.
Nobody has done this to Jason Strowbridge this week until now:
Been a lot of scouting buzz about @UHCougarFB OT Josh Jones this week. Here he swallows up one of the best pass rushers in Mobile, UNC's Jason Strowbridge.#SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/NM6eiVRfZ1
— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) January 23, 2020
For once, at last, someone locks on and connects with Strowbridge and handles him. Strowbridge lacks length and on tape his hand-usage was poor. He’s won with quickness all week but here Jones just gets his hands in the right the place, contains Strowbridge and when he tries to disengage desperately, he’s dumped on his arse.
The next rep was just as good:
Another nice rep for @UHCougarFB OT Josh Jones v. UNC's Jason Strowbridge.#SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/PzIBJbEyJy
— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) January 23, 2020
Here he mirrors superbly. Strowbridge doesn’t even try to engage. He’s swiping at Jones before contact is even made. All Jones does is sit in position and wait for his moment to strike. Once he lands his hands on the frame it’s over. Textbook. Don’t get me wrong, it’s absolutely rubbish from Strowbridge and highlights a major flaw in his technique and tempers some of the hype he’s received this week. This is the reality with him. Poor hand use and short arms. Yet Jones took him on and showed well.
You need to see every rep though, because here’s Jones kicked into guard versus Neville Gallimore:
Josh Jones vs Neville Gallimore
Jones a bit unnatural at LG. Feet are tight, and he’s a bit light in the rear. Will need to work on his anchor.
Gallimore is a legit 12+ sack a year guy if he can fix his pad level. pic.twitter.com/sjCyntNigb
— Matt Valdovinos (@MVScouting) January 24, 2020
Jones isn’t a guard but still. The angles are different but he’s driven backwards fairly easily.
Gallimore has had good and bad moments this week. This is a good rep against Matt Hennessy (who also had good and bad moments):
.@OU_Football DL Neville Gallimore takes Temple OL Matt Hennessy way off balance here. Powerful and quick. Should excel in Indy.#SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/4yOYlSSCla
— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) January 23, 2020
He’s too quick and attacks the outside shoulder. Hennessy has to play defense and Gallimore has the position to do whatever he wants. Drive the blocker into the QB or try and disengage.
K.J. Hill had the nicest one-handed catch of the week:
KJ Hill really just did that pic.twitter.com/wkR32Infah
— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) January 23, 2020
Hill has excellent agility and quick feet and will run a superb short shuttle at the combine. The big questions with him are consistency and long speed.
I’ve not seen much of Denzel Mims working out because nobody’s seen much of practise outside of Mobile. However, he’s received rave reviews for his play. He’s a high-point, contested catch specialist:
Mims with another acrobatic grab. #SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/xnTNKfvheY
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) January 23, 2020
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