I had a request to record a new mock draft using the superb Pro Football Network simulator. This time, however, the projection would include a pre-draft trade with Jacksonville for Yannick Ngakoue. Here are the results and some thoughts…
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We’re now 12 days into free agency. Bruce Irvin is still the only move so far to try and fix Seattle’s pass rush.
One player in (Irvin) and one player out (Quinton Jefferson).
There’s still no sign of a breakthrough with Jadeveon Clowney. Everson Griffen is no closer to joining a new team. Nobody’s traded for Yannick Ngakoue or Matt Judon.
It’s strange that the market has ground to a halt with so much yet to be resolved.
It’s tempting to say this could benefit the Seahawks. They’re one of the teams still actively needing to fix a glaring weakness and some options actually remain.
Yet it’ll only take one tweet to send the off-season spiralling into a crisis. ‘Clowney signs with… another team‘. Josina Anderson noting she just got off the phone with Jadeveon and he says it was the best move for him. Etc Etc.
Then a mad scramble presumably to bring in Griffen and set up book-end 33-year-old pass rushers. Hardly the recipe for better defending the perimeter and stretch run.
It might force them to be aggressive in a trade for Ngakoue. Yet if they’re not willing to pay Clowney or Frank Clark top money — why would Ngakoue be any different?
Everything seems to hinge on Clowney and whatever money they’re left with.
I’ve been considering one scenario today.
What if Baltimore rescinds the tag on Matt Judon and signs Clowney?
Earlier they broke off their arrangement with Michael Brockers. Clowney is a very different player. You might think they’ll do something in light of the Brockers news, however.
Judon’s tag is $15.8m. Would they be willing to give Clowney $16m for a season? Essentially pass Judon’s tag to him? There’s no doubt in my mind who’s the better player and Baltimore could be an attractive proposition. They are primed for a Super Bowl run and use an attacking, aggressive defensive scheme.
It could be the ideal scenario for Clowney to re-enter the market in a years time.
That could potentially allow the Seahawks to make an offer to Judon — although he probably wouldn’t be cheap and wouldn’t be the same quality of player.
The Ravens could also put out the message to send your best trade offer for Judon and they’ll just take what they can. They might prefer to do right by the player though and let him choose his next destination and contract.
I’m starting to wonder how long Clowney will wait this out. All the way to the draft? It’s not like more money will emerge down the line. Have teams asked him to be patient until they can do a medical?
There might currently be some sense in Seattle waiting and hoping he decides to stick around. Yet they also can’t go into the draft without clarity here. You also wonder if Clowney will develop any resentment considering they’re the one team with the medical info and they’ve not stepped up to get this sorted — yet equally haven’t signed anyone else or moved on.
It’s also a little strange that of all the positions they appear hesitant to spend it’s the pass rush. They seem to be rejecting the rapid market increase at the position. That’s fine if you can still find solutions. But if you’re getting guys like Ziggy Ansah trying to penny pinch — all you’re going to do is waste another season.
They can’t afford to do that.
What will be the bigger regret in five years? That they spent money on a quality young pass rusher and it didn’t quite work out — or that they didn’t add that piece and the lack of pressure cost them during Russell Wilson’s prime years?
Tomorrow I will video another simulation that involves a trade for Ngakoue. I’ve also got some interesting things lined up this week so stay tuned.
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Yesterday I posted a seven round Seahawks mock draft using the fantastic Pro Football Network simulator. Today I’ve done another projection but this time in video form (see below).
I talk through the thought process, make a couple of trades and try to focus on certain targeted players (I don’t get them all). Let me know what you think.
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Pro Football Network’s mock draft simulator is the best on the internet. Not only does it include trades but the rankings are a lot more realistic (and that matters a lot).
I did a seven rounder for the Seahawks last night.
This mock assumes they’ll at least make one key addition to the D-line before the draft. They have to. Whether that’s Jadeveon Clowney or Everson Griffen. Really, they need more than one addition. They need both.
They could still trade for Yannick Ngakoue (although why they’d be able to agree a contract with him and not Frank Clark or Clowney remains to be seen). Remember Tony Pauline’s reporting this off-season. He said they would prioritise Jarran Reed and they did. He reported they were interested in Ngakoue too. The deal pitched was a second rounder and then swapping #27 for #42. I’ll reflect on how that would potentially change this mock at the end of the piece.
First round (#27)
Trade with the Indianapolis Colts
Jordan Love was still on the board so I made a deal with the Colts. In return for pick #27 the Seahawks received #44, #75 and #193. Why make the trade? I had a small group of players in mind for the first pick and I knew one or more would last to #44. I also needed #75 to target a specific player early in round three.
Second round (#44)
Julian Okwara (DE, Notre Dame)
The Seahawks need speed in their pass rush and they’re unlikely to find it with what’s left in free agency. Okwara couldn’t work out at the combine as he recovers from an injury and that’s not ideal. You want a complete profile to consider. However — his pressure percentage of 19.1% led all draft eligible defensive ends in 2018/19 and his pass rush win percentage last season was 23% (behind only Chase Young and Joshua Uche). He also has 34.5 inch arms, ideal size and great strength and quickness. Had Okwara not been available I would’ve been forced to consider Uche or Curtis Weaver (or even Bradlee Anae despite his physical testing). That’s the situation at the moment. They need pass rush and the options are so thin in this class. If they don’t take one early they’ll miss out.
Second round (#59)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Not only do the Seahawks need to add a pass rusher they also need more at defensive tackle. Al Woods has moved on to Jacksonville. I had two targets in mind at this spot — Justin Madubuike and Raekwon Davis — and both were available here. I like the idea of slotting someone in with great size and traits to play next to Jarran Reed. Davis has first round physical skills. Despite being 6-6 and 311lbs he plays with tremendous leverage. He’s excellent versus the run but can also play across the line. His pass rush production tailed off at Alabama but there’s untapped potential there. They’ve been looking for a Calais Campbell type for a long time and Davis could be it. He’s available here due to his poor sack production and some character question marks but the Seahawks need to take some chances to add talent. However, I have to acknowledge that they’ve veered away from players with character question marks. Madubuike had a superb combine and is a true one-gapper with a 14.9% pass rush win percentage (third in the class behind Jordan Elliott and Javon Kinlaw). He doesn’t have Davis’ traits but he does have 33 inch arms and he might be seen as a nice compliment to what they already have.
Second round (#64)
Robert Hunt (T, Louisiana-Lafayette)
I want to throw some curveballs into this mock because that’s what the Seahawks tend to do. Hunt feels like he could be one of ‘their guys’. He’s 6-5 and 323lbs with 33.5 inch arms and massive 10 3/4 inch hands. Louisiana-Lafayette had one of the most productive running games in college football last season. He’s played multiple positions on the offensive line. He’s incredibly physical and gets after opponents. With Brandon Shell’s contract indicating he’s more of a veteran hedge rather than a long term fixture, the Seahawks will probably draft a right tackle at some point. If they miss out on the first wave, Hunt could very much be in the frame and they might make sure they get him in this kind of range.
Third round (#75)
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
With over 10 years of data to study we’ve been able to clearly identify the type of physical profile the Seahawks look for in a running back. It enabled us to project C.J. Prosise, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny as probable targets. This year there are two names that really stand out — Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers (although I’d love to think they’d consider Clyde Edwards-Helaire too). Akers is right in their ballpark at 5-10 and 217lbs with explosive traits (35.5 inch vertical) and great speed (4.47) and footwork. The Seahawks need someone who can be a three-down compliment to Carson and that’s what Akers is. He has great potential that was somewhat wasted on a lousy Florida State team. The trade with the Colts was partly inspired to get into this range to select Akers. He was the target all along.
Third round (#101)
Devin Duvernay (WR, Texas)
This is a great receiver class but there’s a point where there’s a significant drop in talent. This is the latest I think you can consider adding one or you risk missing out. I have mixed views on Duvernay but he was the best option left on the board. At Texas he received more receiver screens than any player in college football in 2019. There’s a lot of short-stuff on tape that leads to somewhat manufactured production. However — he’s incredibly mature and likeable, he’s tough and he ran a 4.39 then jumped a 35.5 inch vertical. The Seahawks love speed and grit at the position and he has it.
Fourth round (#133)
Bryce Hall (CB, Virginia)
I took a punt here for the future. Hall suffered a horrible looking injury during the 2019 season and might not be fully ready for 2020. For that reason he might last into day three. The opportunity to try and get some value is too good to turn down here. He’s one of the few cornerbacks in this class with Seattle size (6-1, 202lbs, 32 1/4 inch arms). Bring him in, redshirt him and see if he can be a potential starter down the line considering the uncertain long-term futures of Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar (both free agents in 2021).
Fourth round (#144)
Shane Lemieux (G, Oregon)
The offensive line depth in this draft is really something. It’s superb. And even with the Seahawks collecting veteran O-liners recently — the options are too good to pass compared to the other positions. In recent drafts they’ve been very active in adding day three linemen to draft and develop. I couldn’t not take Lemieux. He’s incredibly physical at left guard and had his team mates frequently energised with some highlight-reel blocks. He’s well known to be very intelligent and a team leader. He’s more of a run blocker than a pass protector and he has solid size at 6-4 and 310lbs. Let him compete with Phil Haynes at left guard.
Sixth round (#193)
Kevin Dotson (G, Louisiana-Lafayette)
Again, the O-line options are too strong in this draft to pass up. Dotson combined superbly with Robert Hunt to produce massive results in the running game. They were a great force together. Dotson received PFF’s highest run-blocking grade in 2019 ahead of LSU’s brilliant Damien Lewis and Kentucky’s tone-setting Logan Stenberg. Let him compete with Chance Warmack for a spot on the roster.
Sixth round (#214)
#214 — Josh Metellus
I thought Metellus had a really good combine workout and showed some flashes at the Senior Bowl. He’s a terrific run defender who finishes his tackles. That’s a big deal given Seattle were poor in both areas in 2019. He could compete to be a big nickel or strong safety with special teams responsibilities. He’s a confident personality and will add a bit of juice to camp. He moved well at the combine.
The class in full
#44 — Julian Okwara (DE)
#59 — Raekwon Davis (DT)
#64 — Robert Hunt (T)
#75 — Cam Akers (RB)
#101 — Devin Duvernay (WR)
#133 — Bryce Hall (CB)
#144 — Shane Lemieux (G)
#193 — Kevin Dotson (G)
#214 — Josh Metellus (S)
There’s a good balance to the class with five offensive players and four defenders. With the need to focus on the D-line early the first two picks at least provide upside and a possible first year contribution. I wanted to tap into the receiver and running back classes before the end of round three and I wanted to make the most of a strong O-line class.
For the most part I also think I hit on players that ‘fit’ the Seahawks preferences. And I tried to do the mock with some kind of plan based on the simulator rankings. Where would I need to pick to get the guys I want? From Okwara to Hall I was able to work the board early and with the last three picks it was all about value.
If the Seahawks traded for Ngakoue (which feels unlikely because, again, I’m not sure how they get a deal done with him and not Clowney or Clark) they’d essentially be swapping him for Okwara in this projection. If they were able to bring in someone like Everson Griffen to play the five technique, that would at least be a more competent looking bookend pass rush. Ngakoue’s also an alpha at a good age (he only turns 25 in March).
As we’ve discussed a lot though — they’ve used a ton of cap space padding the middle class. Whether they’d be able to make two moves is a question mark now. It’s a lot harder to project. And if they add Ngakoue and don’t sign a five technique they might be inclined to take a closer look at Jabari Zuniga (who at least has played some inside/out for Florida). They could even ask Raekwon Davis to play that role (they’d need so sign another defensive tackle though). Either way they’re almost forced to look at D-line early unless they do something soon to fix this glaring issue.
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The #Seahawks are signing WR Phillip Dorsett on a 1-year deal, source said. A former #Patriots WR has a new home.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 24, 2020
A third consecutive day with a signing announcement — but still no news on Jadeveon Clowney or the pass rush.
In the build up to free agency we discussed the possibility of Seattle waiting out the receiver market and making a move. In particular, we discussed Dorsett as an option.
The Seahawks love speed. They want to be physical in the running game and take shots downfield. Dorsett ran a 4.33 at the 2015 combine and was drafted by the Colts in round one.
He never quite turned that quickness into NFL production. Despite playing most of his career with Tom Brady and Andrew Luck he’s never had more than 528 yards in a season. His five touchdowns in 2019 were a career high.
None of that really matters though. He’ll be judged in Seattle by his ability to contribute big plays. He won’t be mass production. He’ll be competition, depth and a potential X-factor if he makes the roster.
This is just another draft hedge really. It’ll be a major surprise if they don’t take a receiver from this excellent class. Dorsett’s worth having just in case.
The Seahawks have spent a lot of time over the years signing former first round busts. They fill out their middle class with players like this. Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel, Barkevious Mingo, D.J. Fluker. Now they’ve added Chance Warmack, Cedric Ogbuehi and Dorsett.
None of these signings have really amounted to anything so far, with the possible exception of Fluker.
And this brings me back to the rather confusing nature of this off-season.
Seattle needed stars. Russell Wilson made that very clear at the Pro Bowl:
“I think we need a couple more,’’ Wilson said in an interview with ESPN. “I think we need a couple more. Jadeveon (Clowney) is a big-time guy that we would love to get back on our football team. He was so good in the locker room. He brought so many just havoc plays to the field. Hopefully, we can get a few other players there on the defense. Then also on offense, we have a great offense, but I think we can always add more pieces. I think that’s going to be the part that’s going to be great with John Schneider and Pete Carroll, as well, in terms of this offseason’s free agency. Free agency is very, very key to getting those superstars on your team and try to get great players that can fill the space.”
Instead of adding star power, the Seahawks have filled out their middle class with unproven players. For the last couple of years Seattle hasn’t had enough quality and their second tier talent has been poor. They’ve been left with a team carried by the quarterback, a small collection of others and a terrific culture. In order to become a proper contender they needed an injection of real talent.
With so many draft picks they had a chance to fill out their depth with younger prospects. That would allow them to potentially zone in on 2-3 big additions in free agency. Instead, they seem to be adding veteran depth players while also failing to address the biggest position of need.
The cap space is now reducing at a rapid rate and yet can anyone say for any certainty that the Seahawks are any better for it?
There’s a real danger here that at best the likes of Brandon Shell and B.J. Finney will be as good as the players they’re replacing. The likes of Warmack and Dorsett might not even make the roster. And then there’s this from Sheil Kapadia earlier today:
“Last season, the Seahawks produced a sack or QB hit on just 14.4 percent of opponents’ pass plays — the worst rate of any defense.”
Just throw that stat onto the pile with how lowly they ranked for pressures, sacks, hurries, missed tackles and run defense.
Whatever the plan is, it’s not obvious.
I’m starting to fear they’ve decided they feel they can coach up another rag-tag cast of characters and turn water into wine. They’ve done it with other players before. More recently though, they haven’t. This re-set hasn’t been as painful because of the likes of Russell Wilson, Duane Brown, Chris Carson, Bobby Wagner, Tyler Lockett, Frank Clark and Jadeveon Clowney. Not because of the middle class. The depth hasn’t been good enough.
This needed to be an off-season where a big step forward took place. The third year of a re-set with cap room and picks to work with.
We’re nine days into the new league year and a lot of the cap space is gone. Obvious cap casualties strangely remain on the roster. They’ve only added Bruce Irvin to the pass rush and they might lose Clowney. The alternative D-line options are thin with a weak pass rush draft class on the horizon.
I’ll say it again. I’m struggling to work it all out.
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I'm told the #Redskins have agreed to trade CB Quinton Dunbar to the #Seahawks, per source.
— ig: josinaanderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 23, 2020
This is a classic Seahawks move.
They do their best work hunting for trade value. Jadeveon Clowney for a third rounder and two fringe players, Quandre Diggs for a fifth.
The original golden deals were adding Chris Clemons for a ham sandwich and dealing day three stock for Marshawn Lynch.
Trades like this help build a winning football team. Players with a point to prove, at a good age, discarded by other clubs and with talent that can be harnessed.
You build a foundation through the draft and supplement your core with trades and key free agent additions.
Dunbar is 27 (he turns 28 in July). He ran a 4.44 at Florida’s pro-day in 2015. He’s 6-2 and 202lbs.
The Seahawks badly needed an addition like this. The options in the draft are paper thin. There are barely any cornerbacks with +32 inch arms (their benchmark) and there aren’t any obvious safety converts either.
They weren’t going to be able to draft and develop a fifth round corner prospect from this class. Yet they seriously needed competition at the position.
Dunbar provides that.
This doesn’t mean the end of Tre Flowers. They needed a choice and some options. They couldn’t go into the next season with Shaquill Griffin and Flowers as unchallenged starters again. Now there’s a third legit name to throw into the mix.
So how good is Dunbar?
PFF ranked him #2 for cornerbacks in 2019, second only to Richard Sherman. He had four interceptions last season.
None of this guarantees he’ll be a top five corner for the Seahawks but at least they’re adding a player with pedigree. Now he’ll have to adapt to Seattle’s scheme. That has been a challenge for some veteran cornerbacks in the past.
Even so, this is a positive move. They had to do something for the defense.
I didn’t anticipate them being this restrained at the start of free agency. The pass rush was a glaring need. The defense in general needed a significant injection of talent.
I feel obliged to remind people of the stats:
The Seahawks finished the 2019 season with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23). Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall.
They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96). Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%).
Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest. They had 52 TFL’s — again, fourth fewest.
They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL. Yet their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%).
They also gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall.
The other startling statistic is the sheer number of missed tackles. They had 131 during the regular season — the fourth most.
Two things seemed obvious to me.
Firstly — they had draft picks and cap flexibility that they’ve not had for many years. There were no restrictions on their ability to be pro-active. It was more a question of what they were going to do, not if they were going to do anything.
Secondly — the draft and free agency were aligned perfectly. They could be somewhat aggressive in the veteran market to acquire defensive talent. The draft was stacked at receiver, running back and the offensive line.
I won’t go over old ground too much. The need to upgrade the defense was paramount. Seattle has a top-five offense per DVOA. They have an outstanding quarterback, weapons and a left tackle. You can win a lot of games with those pieces.
The inability to create pressure, complete tackles and defend the perimeter run is pretty much the only thing that cost them a serious tilt at the Super Bowl. They won eleven games. They were an inch away from wining twice against San Francisco and claiming the NFC West.
Yet being as successful as they were in 2019, relatively speaking, shouldn’t mask how poor the defensive performance was. It’s so bad that for stretches last season — even when they were winning — it was hard to take Seattle seriously as a true contender.
With the greatest respect to Bruce Irvin, who we all like, Dunbar is the first splash.
Now it’s time to (finally) fix the pass rush.
Retaining Clowney merely maintains the status quo. Swapping Ziggy Ansah for Irvin isn’t enough. It’s still very possible they’ll lose Clowney. You could end up with Everson Griffen and Irvin — two players who both turn 33 this year — propped up by draft picks from a poor D-line class or low level free agents.
That would be concerning.
The stalemate with Clowney doesn’t seem to be any closer to being resolved. It needs to be — as soon as possible. They’ve been hamstrung by it for too long. The only update today is that Miami offered him $17m a year when the market opened and he said no. According to the local Seattle media, the Seahawks have been willing to go to $18.5m.
Clowney should only be the first domino though. Pairing him with Griffen and Irvin would be an improvement if hardly an answer to San Francisco’s fearsome defensive front.
They also need to add a defensive tackle at some point given Al Woods, a 2019 starter, is a free agent.
I’ve been studying the 2020 draft class again this week with the Clowney saga dragging on. I’ve re-watched all the Senior Bowl practises and the game plus various other games saved on my system.
The best way to describe the class is every player lacks something.
Take Utah’s Bradlee Anae for example. His pass rush repertoire, hand-use and technique is about as good as you’ll see from a college rusher. He’s clearly worked at his craft and benefited from all the games he played for Utah.
He’s also a 4.93 runner at 257lbs and has 32 1/8 inch arms.
How can you invest faith in a pass rusher who is that limited athletically and physically? You want to buy into him. The grit, the attitude, the relentless motor, the production, the technique.
Yet how is his physical profile going to go up against a guy like Lane Johnson? He runs as well as an offensive or defensive tackle. His short shuttle is 4.43 — that’s similar to Jaye Howard’s back in the day.
Then you look at Jabari Zuniga. He’s a Rolls Royce 35% of the time. He glides off the edge and can win with pure speed and fluidity. His physique is like a Roman statue. He ran a 1.61 10-yard split, is one of the most explosive testers to enter the league in the last decade and he has major upside.
Then you watch the tape and he’s on and off like a hot tap. You see a big flash on one down and then you’ll see nothing for five snaps. Clearly he has major physical talent. Yet at the Senior Bowl he was engulfed a couple of times in 1v1’s and ended up on the deck.
If you put Anae and Zuniga together you’d have a great pass rusher. Apart? You run the risk of disappointment.
That runs right through the class.
It illustrates why they’ve got to come up with some veteran answers pronto.
The addition of Dunbar is still a step in the right direction though.
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#Seahawks have agreed to terms on a deal with former first-round OL Chance Warmack, per his agent Ron Slavin of @SPORTSTARSNYC. He’s back in the league after taking a year to get healthy.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 22, 2020
The 2020 draft has three main strengths.
There’s real quality and depth at receiver. There are a lot of good interior offensive linemen and several offensive tackles will go in the first round. It’s also quietly impressive at running back.
On the other hand, the defensive line options are much weaker than a year ago and it’s really hard to find Seattle-style cornerbacks.
So of course, nearly a week into free agency, the Seahawks have signed four offensive linemen and the only addition to the unit of highest priority (pass rush) is Bruce Irvin (who turns 33 this year).
It’s important to remember that none of the offensive line additions carry any long term commitment. They can take a look at the group, see how they potentially fit into the roster for this year and make a call.
They could also be replaced by any rookies they add next month.
Chance Warmack will probably be on a veteran minimum contract after a year long sabbatical. Let’s assume that. Even though few would’ve predicted Cedric Ogbuehi’s backup role in Jacksonville would warrant a jump in salary from $750,000 to $3.3m.
The Seahawks have depth across the board now at every O-line position. Whether the depth is any good remains to be seen. None of these new additions are what you’d call proven quality. They also have younger players on the roster who need to show they belong too.
Warmack is the seventh player from the top-15 of the 2013 draft class to be signed by Seattle. It’s also one of the worst draft classes in recent history. There’ll be very little pressure on Warmack to stick but he won’t have to go too far to top the contributions of Luke Joeckel, Dion Jordan, Ziggy Ansah and Barkevious Mingo.
His addition is a perfectly plausible shot to nothing. Warmack at Alabama was seen as a sure thing. He was physical and dominating. People expected he would be what Quenton Nelson has been — that’s why he was the #10 overall pick as an interior lineman. He has good length (near 35 inch arms) and ideal size. He’s a good fit physically for Mike Solari and the Seattle offense.
This also continues their more recent philosophy of signing veteran offensive linemen at a certain cost to fill holes while also drafting to develop. For the last two years they’ve plugged in guys like D.J. Fluker, J.R. Sweezy and Mike Iupati. They’ve then used picks on players like Phil Haynes and Jamarco Jones on day three. With Germain Ifedi, George Fant and Iupati moving on — they had a few holes to fill this year. So they’ve simply continued with their plan. They’ve added veterans. It’s plausible they will now also draft to develop behind them.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this signing. If it works out — it’s a bargain. If not — he gets cut. Most of the moves they’re making on the O-line are unlikely to have a significant say in whether Seattle challenges for a Super Bowl or not in 2020.
What is going to have an impact on their ability to contend is fixing the pass rush and injecting much needed talent into the defense. So far — they’ve swapped Ziggy Ansah for Bruce Irvin, watched Quinton Jefferson move to Buffalo and that’s it.
They’re still trying to smoke out Jadeveon Clowney, who may or may not re-sign. If he moves on, they’ll lose the one X-factor player on a terrible D-line from 2019. Many of the alternative options have signed with other teams.
It’s time to start signing some pass rushers. The defense needs major work in general. It’ll be strange to see the Seahawks forced to tap into the D-line draft looking for impact when it’s one of the weaker D-line classes in recent memory. Particularly for edge rushers.
If they land Clowney for a much cheaper price than expected and are then able to surround him with others (because don’t forget — keeping Clowney merely maintains the status quo of what was a bad line in 2019) — then we’ll all look back on this period and laugh at our impatience.
The alternative — losing Clowney over a few million, limiting the alternative options or additional options and/or not doing enough to sufficiently improve a bad defense — could mean we’re sat here in a year talking about the same things all over again. Missed opportunities, wondering are they going to waste Russell Wilson’s best years, saying that they need to be pro-active in free agency. That can’t happen.
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We’ve talked about the types of linebacker Seattle likes. Agility testing appears to be key, or an overall superb physical profile.
I don’t think it’s very likely that the Seahawks will draft a linebacker this year. None of the players at the combine tested superbly in the short shuttle. They haven’t cut K.J. Wright and Pete Carroll has expressed interest in bringing back Mychal Kendricks. They drafted two players who fit their preferred profile a year ago (Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven).
They have much more pressing needs. At the moment the pass rush has not been addressed. They’ve signed three players for the offensive line but all carry question marks. They’ve not added another weapon for Russell Wilson either.
If they’re keeping Wright, they have to prioritise other areas.
I still want to talk about Wyoming’s Logan Wilson today though.
He might not fit Seattle’s ideal profile but he still tested well. His short shuttle of 4.27 is good at 241lbs and he ran a 7.07 three cone. He managed a 32 inch vertical and ran a 4.63 forty.
Wilson looks even better on tape. He has loose hips and gets around the field with ease. When he gets into attack mode he’s direct, quick and flies to the ball carrier. He’s adept at working through traffic and he’s very comfortable stringing plays out to the sideline. He’s in control even when he’s moving at full speed. He never looks unsure of himself, there’s no indecisive movement or a false step.
This is particularly important for teams like Seattle who struggle to defend the perimeter run. We’ve talked about it a lot — but watching Cody Barton get blocked by Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs was difficult to accept. You want some violence from your linebackers. Rodgers should’ve been dumped on his backside. Wilson has strong hands at the point of contact to stay clean, he’s extremely direct to the football and if he needs to get off a block he does it in many different ways.
Simply put, he isn’t getting blocked by Aaron Rodgers.
When I watched him on tape I was surprised his short shuttle wasn’t in the elite 4.00-4.10 range. That’s how fluid and balanced he is. There’s very little stiffness there. He’s not on the same level but he’s similar to Leighton Vander Esch. They share the same ability to play with an aggressive, controlled demeanour and get around the field better than you’d expect.
He’s also no slouch against the run. He’ll play up at the LOS and help set an edge. As a blitzer he’s extremely useful and he can slip through gaps to make plays in the backfield. His tackling is extremely consistent.
Dropping in coverage is to be determined with Wilson. He wasn’t asked to do much more than spy the QB and try to read his eyes. Whether he’d be a liability defending the seam or trying to match-up with tight ends like the modern NFL demands — that’s a question mark. But it is with any linebacker at this level not named Isaiah Simmons. He did have 10 career interceptions at Wyoming which is impressive production.
The intangibles are also really high with Wilson. He played 3618 snaps in a four-year career and was a team captain for three years. He’s the kind of character this team has looked for in the last couple of drafts.
For me he’s a second round type prospect. If he lasted into the third it’d be tremendous value.
Stockpiling linebackers when there are so many other needs would be an odd tactic. I do think the Seahawks need one of three things to happen though. They either need Barton to take a big step forward in year two to warrant any long term faith — or they need to add some raw speed at the position or someone who just won’t take any s**t. Too many teams stretch out Seattle’s front seven and exploit the perimeter. That can’t keep happening. The Rams have a field day and the Niners have found ways to exploit the defensive front too. They need players who are angry, quick, violent and can get off blocks.
Wilson can do that. Whether he’s agile enough to turn their head — I can’t say. On tape, however, he looks like he’s up to the task.
The linebacker position does carry some options this year. Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen are probably going to go too early to be considered. Willie Gay Jr is a superb physical talent with great playmaking qualities. His coverage ability and knack for forcing big plays should be highly attractive to teams even if there are some character question marks. Malik Harrison will be coveted too thanks to his excellent 6.83 three cone combined with an explosive 36 inch vertical but he’s a short area player. He does his best work at or just beyond the LOS. He’s good at reading screens and he packs a punch as a hitter. I think he can be targeted on the perimeter though and could be a liability in more expansive coverage situations. Even though he ran quite well at the combine — there are some limitations sideline-to-sideline.
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This blog is not going to turn into the daily moan.
I have a piece lined up discussing Tua Tagovailoa’s status and I’ll run through the Bob McGinn draft notes.
However, right now there’s only one topic in town. Seattle’s off-season. So I hope you’ll indulge me talking about this again today.
Rather than the pro-active, problem-solving off-season many of us expected — the inactivity to date is increasingly creating confusion and frustration.
The latest update today is there’s no progress with Jadeveon Clowney. However, he’s now reportedly weighing up one year deals because his market is cold.
Meanwhile Everson Griffen has told Minnesota he’s moving on. According to Chris Tomasson though:
“A lot will depend on where Clowney signs and then Griffen could end up being an option B for a team that doesn’t get Clowney.”
How has it come to this?
At the combine Pete Carroll and John Schneider spoke of the critical need to fix the pass rush. Carroll called Clowney a ‘huge priority’. He talked about getting a premier pass rusher to play the LEO and a dynamic five technique.
Why hasn’t that been the priority then?
They’ve spent money retaining Jarran Reed, adding three offensive linemen and signing up a collection of mediocre RFA and ERFA’s. They’ve brought back Luke Willson and tendered Jacob Hollister to stack up the tight end position.
Why are they waiting it out with Clowney and/or Griffen instead of Brandon Shell and the currently unsigned Germain Ifedi? Why not roll the dice on Cordy Glenn being available down the line instead? Why zap resources on three O-liners who will need to compete for a job when the pass rush remains untouched barring Bruce Irvin?
For some reason, Ed Dickson remains on the roster. As does Tedric Thompson.
What are they waiting for? Are they waiting to see if Clowney fancies it? If not, just sign some cheap pass rushers and Ed and Ted can stick around for another camp?
I’ll repeat — why are Ed Dickson and Tedric Thompson still on the roster?
It just doesn’t make any sense.
Get your pass rush sorted. Everything else can wait. Go and get your five technique and your LEO. Solve the big need. Then let all the other things come to you.
So what if you need to pay Clowney a bit more to get it done? The Eagles paid Darius Slay and Javon Hargrave a bit more. The Dolphins paid Byron Jones a bit more. The Falcons paid Dante Fowler a bit more. It’s free agency. You generally end up having to pay a bit more than you want.
At the Pro-Bowl Russell Wilson asked for superstars.
He was right to. We can all see this was an off-season that required action.
So why hasn’t it happened yet?
Many are willing to call for patience. And that’s fine. But being patient is risky. What happens if you wait out Clowney and he goes somewhere else? How much longer is Griffen going to be available as a backup option? And if you don’t get either — then what? Talk to the Jaguars or Ravens about Yannick Ngakoue or Matt Judon with very little leverage? What if they decide they want a massive return via trade?
Names like Benson Mayowa are being thrown around. Really?
Being active in week one of free agency doesn’t have to be reckless. Have the Ravens been reckless in acquiring Calais Campbell and Michael Brockers? Or the Bills in trading for Stefon Diggs? Or the Cardinals stealing DeAndre Hopkins? Or the Eagles in signing Hargrave and trading for Slay?
The Seahawks, by their own admission, needed to fix the pass rush.
And now they’re in a stalemate with a player merely to maintain the status quo. Keeping Clowney simply means the same line as 2019 that finished in the bottom five for pressures, sacks, hurries, was a league leader for missed tackles and struggled to defend the perimeter run. The only difference is Bruce Irvin has replaced Quinton Jefferson.
Are they going to rely on a weak D-line draft class to try and rescue the 2020 season from being another first or second round playoff exit before the same old talk of this ‘feeling like 2012’ while promising to fix the glaring issues?
The retention of Dickson and Thompson, the collecting of tight ends, preferring to wait out the pass rushers and instead quickly signing three offensive linemen who (at best) are unknown quantities.
And the only pass rush move is Bruce Irvin.
I’ve spent 24 hours trying to work this out and I just don’t get it.
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This is still no time to panic. As Sea Mode noted in a comment in yesterday’s piece, the Seahawks still have plenty of cap flexibility. They can get done what they need to get done.
Recently I’ve argued the Seahawks shouldn’t be judged until we know what moves they’ve actually made. Because they will do something to fix the pass rush. Then, and only then, are we in a proper position to analyse.
Now having got all of that out of the way — let’s get to the point.
It’s time for the Seahawks to start making some moves.
We’re four days into free agency. This was a free agency period that required action.
The Seahawks are good enough to make the playoffs consistently thanks to the quarterback. They’re not good enough to go much further than the wild card or the divisional round. That has shown to be true in the last two years.
They need an injection of talent.
The patient building of the previous two off-seasons was understandable. They had barely any draft picks and the cap room was limited as they cut veterans and tried to freshen up the culture and regain their identity.
After two years of re-setting — now was the time. They had picks and money to spend. They have a quarterback who turns 32 in November and is playing the best football of his career. You have some pieces but not enough.
In particular the pass rush and defense in general is holding the team back. It’s not good enough. They ranked among the worst teams for sacks, pressures and hurries. They miss too many tackles and the run defense is poor — especially at the perimeter.
That needed fixing this off-season.
They needed to channel their 2013 form. The trade for Percy Harvin followed by deals with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. A statement of intent. Genuine quality added.
It would’ve been unrealistic to expect that level of success (although the Harvin trade was an expensive bust). But an attempt to try and replicate it? That’s not unreasonable.
People regularly mention how patient the Seahawks are at the start of free agency. Not in 2013. Not in 2015 when they traded for Jimmy Graham. Not in 2011 when they needed to give the rebuild a shot in the arm and signed Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, Robert Gallery and Tarvaris Jackson while also re-signing Brandon Mebane.
So far the Seahawks have been relatively inactive. They’ve signed three offensive linemen to replace, presumably, Mike Iupati, George Fant and Germain Ifedi. It remains to be seen if B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell are capable of improving or even maintaining the O-line performance from 2019.
They’ve also re-signed Jarran Reed and added Irvin, who turns 33 in November.
Compare this to some of the other teams in the NFL:
— The Ravens traded for Calais Campbell for a fifth round pick then signed Michael Brockers
— The Cardinals aggressively moved to add DeAndre Hopkins for a bargain price
— The Colts, needing D-line reinforcements, stepped up and traded for DeForest Buckner then paid him a handsome new contract
— The Bills supported their quarterback by trading for Stefon Diggs
— The Eagles have signed Javon Hargrave and traded for Darius Slay
— The Falcons actively created cap room to sign Dante Fowler
— The Broncos traded for Jurell Casey
— The 49ers solved a problem by re-signing Arik Armstead and acquiring a top-15 pick for a player (Buckner) they felt they couldn’t retain
There’s also been a lot of reckless, unwise spending too. Nobody should hope for the Seahawks to start doing that. Yet some of the teams above have been pro-active, found value and solved problems.
What have the Seahawks done? Hedge certain positions and tried to fill holes on the O-line with players who physically ‘fit’ but don’t have a proven track record.
It could work out well in the end. They might get their guys at an affordable price. Is it fair to start wondering though — is a bit of bargain hunting adequate? The options are getting lighter now. For the sake of saving enough money to sign Brandon Shell or keep together a fairly mediocre core of restricted free agents, wouldn’t they just be better off going after the guys they want?
People often say you don’t win the Super Bowl by winning free agency. Yet a year ago the Niners spent big money on Kwon Alexander then traded for Dee Ford. The Chiefs traded for and paid Frank Clark. Green Bay reached the NFC Championship game after spending money on two new pass rushers.
It doesn’t guarantee success but a pro-active free agency for a good team can sure help.
Jadeveon Clowney seems to be stuck in no man’s land — wanting a big contract that nobody is prepared to offer yet seemingly unwilling to accept whatever it is Seattle’s presenting. Likewise, the Seahawks apparently aren’t sweetening the deal to get it over the line.
Mike Garafolo says the Seahawks are speaking to a number of other edge rushers just in case Clowney moves on. Who exactly? Everson Griffen is out there. Is he going to setup the oldest pass rushing duo in the league with Irvin? Garafolo also says nothing is happening regarding a Yannick Ngakoue trade — presumably because the asking price is too high. I can’t get excited about the prospect of Matt Judon — a former fifth round pick coming from a scheme that generally does a great job manufacturing pressure. As he’s been tagged, he’d also cost a major salary too — unless you’re prepared to add him as a one year rental on the tag.
It’ll be a positive if Clowney is retained. The status quo from last year isn’t enough though and the options in the draft are severely limited. It’s at least somewhat positive that they have the flexibility to create more cap space — having spent a large chunk on a mediocre group of restricted players.
The Seahawks can’t be in the same place in 12 months time — on the periphery compared to the real contenders and needing a big off-season.
There’s still time to get things sorted. After all, the Chiefs didn’t trade for Clark until right before the draft.
I’m not sure this team has the luxury to be able to wait this out to that extent though. The 2018 Chiefs were better than the 2019 Seahawks. Seattle can’t afford to miss out.
I can only sit here and say ‘patience’ to you for so long. In part I hope by posting this it provokes some kind of reverse psychology. Eventually there needs to be some action. If Clowney wants $20m and the Seahawks are offering about $18m — was it really worth signing Irvin or Oguehi? Why not just get it done?
Now’s the time. Otherwise they’re going to go into the draft handcuffed to a massive, glaring need in the worst D-line draft for years.
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