Brandan I spent 90 minutes discussing Seattle’s off-season so far and looked ahead to the NFL draft in two weeks. There’s a lot of detail, some big views and it’s worth checking out below.
The latest interview in our ‘lockdown’ series is with the former Seahawks senior personnel executive and Redskins/49ers GM Scot McCloughan.
As one of the most respected scouts in the NFL, it was a privilege to spend time speaking with Scot. He shares some insider knowledge on life in a NFL draft room, discusses his time with the Seahawks and explains why he thinks it would’ve been best to delay the draft due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Listen to the interview below and if you missed any of the others in the series, check out my YouTube channel for conversations with Jim Nagy and Lance Zierlein — plus players Cesar Ruiz, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. I’ve got two more interviews on the way this week with Michael Lombardi and Mike Renner so stay tuned.
I’ve been thinking about how to respond to yesterday’s comment from Mike Garofolo that Seattle’s chances of re-signing Jadeveon Clowney were ‘slim to none’. It could, of course, be the latest instalment in an attempt to negotiate through the media. That was prevalent during the Russell Wilson saga last year.
But then I decided it doesn’t really matter whether it’s a legit comment or not. Either way, as of today, the Seahawks have not addressed their biggest need.
Let’s review Seattle’s last 12 months when it comes to the pass rush.
They ended the 2018 season with a striking need on the defensive line. That wasn’t a big concern at the time because a great draft for defensive linemen was on the horizon. Frank Clark and Jarran Reed had both enjoyed successful seasons but they needed more. They needed to try and get a rotation of rushers and improve their defensive tackle depth.
The problem was — they had some big decisions to make. Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner needed to be paid. Clark was a free agent and received the franchise tag. The Seahawks did well to secure Wilson and Wagner’s futures. However, they were unwilling to pay Clark the $21m a year DeMarcus Lawrence had just been given by the Dallas Cowboys.
At the time a trade was understandable. Financially it would’ve been a huge commitment to Clark. As well as he played in Seattle — was he one of the very best players in the league? It was a players market they were bidding in. With only four picks in the 2019 draft they made the trade with Kansas City — acquiring a nice return of a first round pick and a future second round pick.
Again — at the point of the trade it didn’t feel remotely like a crisis. They had an opportunity to spend two high picks on the defensive line in a great D-line draft if they wished. It was clear though that they needed to do something. In 2018 Clark was as isolated as Chris Clemons was in 2011. Now they’d lost Clark — and with him any kind of serious edge threat.
There’s been plenty of speculation about what happened during the draft that left Pete Carroll and John Schneider looking so despondent in their press conference after round one. There was a total lack of energy in the room. Both individuals sounded dejected.
Had they hoped (as many expected) that Rashan Gary would last to #21? Or Brian Burns? Was Johnathan Abram the backup plan? Did they miss out on Gary and Burns then err by trading out of range for Abram?
Who knows. I’m speculating. It isn’t healthy. We can all second guess things with hindsight. I was a big fan of L.J. Collier’s TCU tape and it’s perfectly plausible they were always comfortable taking him at #29. Or did they feel they’d missed the boat on the first rush of top linemen and now needed to take the best remaining player on their board to make sure they didn’t miss out completely? Especially with an even greater need at defensive end following the Clark trade?
Did they, in other words, ‘reach’?
They didn’t draft another defensive end and instead signed Ziggy Ansah as soon as it wouldn’t cost them a comp pick. Ansah had received no interest in free agency due to a shoulder injury and persistent questions about his desire to carry on playing.
It was obvious during pre-season that Seattle’s pass rush was inadequate. Collier hurt his ankle and wasn’t available. Ansah was re-habbing. Jacob Martin, Cassius Marsh and Barkevious Mingo were rotating in. The results were what you’d expect.
The Houston Texans gifted Seattle a solution in the form of a barely believable Jadeveon Clowney trade. Even with his addition, the pass rush still wasn’t good enough. Clowney ran a one-man show some weeks. Ansah’s goose was cooked. Martin and Mingo left for Houston as part of the trade. Marsh was cut. Collier couldn’t force his way into the rotation and was usually inactive. Quinton Jefferson did his best but was never a true X-factor. Rasheem Green made some progress but it was limited and from a position of Collier-level inactivity the previous year.
So the Seahawks entered the current off-season in virtually the same position as the last. They had one capable pass rusher who was out of contract. They needed to add to what they had. Only this time, they weren’t approaching a great D-line draft.
History has otherwise pretty much repeated.
As with Clark, they don’t want to pay Clowney the going rate for a top defensive end. Despite having cap space they’ve used most of it on depth signings — adding a mix of journeymen and former first-round busts. They’ve lost Quinton Jefferson but retained Jarran Reed. They’ve signed Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa.
The big difference is — unlike with Clark they’re not going to get any picks for Clowney. In fact if he leaves in free agency they won’t even get a comp pick due to the additions they’ve made dwarfing the number of players they’ve lost.
Mayowa-Irvin-Collier-Green might be better than Mingo-Marsh-Jefferson-Martin — but can anyone be sure?
There’s still time to make further moves. But let’s consider the options. You could pair Everson Griffen (33 this year) or Clay Matthews (34 this year) with Irvin (33 this year) and Mayowa. You’ll have the oldest pass rush in the NFL (possibly ever) which might not do much for the other glaring issue on defense (defending the perimeter run).
Or you could trade a first round pick for the opportunity to negotiate a massive contract for Yannick Nagkoue. Essentially trading a key asset to give Ngakoue the money you wouldn’t offer to Clark or Clowney.
The other trade option is to spend a lesser pick for Matthew Judon but still pay him $15.8m for this year (the Ravens tagged him as a linebacker). If you want to extend his contract, presumably you’ll also need to offer him the money you weren’t willing to conjure up for Clowney and Clark.
Judon also comes from one of the more creative blitzing defensive schemes in the league. He’s not used to rushing with four consistently and needing to create pressure in more conventional ways.
If none of these moves appeal — there’s always the draft. Yet as mentioned — it’s not a good D-line draft. You’d likely have to fight the board to spend your top pick on a pass rusher. There are players who could fit in Seattle’s scheme — but there’s not a cluster of twitchy speed rushers or dynamic, agile five-techniques. The combine workouts for the defensive linemen this year were the least impressive we’ve seen in years.
If they did force a D-line pick early — would it be a repeat of the Collier selection? A case of needing to address a massive need and taking ‘the best player remaining at the position’ rather than tapping into the superior options that will be available on the O-line, at receiver and at running back? I can tell you the pro’s and con’s of players like Josh Uche, Julian Okwara, Jabari Zuniga and others. Can I tell you they’re fixing a pass rush in 2020? Absolutely not.
Worse still — there’s a realistic prospect that we’ll be here again in twelve months. The pass rush problems will still not be resolved long term.
For a well run franchise like the Seahawks to have a need as big as fixing the pass rush last three off-seasons — that would be quite staggering.
It’s especially confounding considering Seattle’s desire to rush with four players. They’re not like the Buccaneers who blitz almost every down. They’re not like the Ravens with their different looks and creative ways to bring pressure. The Seahawks want to simply line up and beat you with four. You need talent to do that and a good rotation. Yet it’s the one area, over the last two off-seasons, where they haven’t been willing to pay for it.
It also seriously jeopardises their ability to take the next step on the field. Since 2015 they’ve been stuck as a perennial playoff team who never gets beyond the divisional round. Russell Wilson asked for ‘superstars’ for a reason. The Seahawks needed an injection of talent this off-season and to fix the pass rush. They’ve added depth, potentially lost their best defensive lineman and not become obviously better aside from the Quinton Dunbar trade (and even he will need to be a rare outside-cornerback-who-fits-in-the-system).
What started as a solvable problem at the end of the 2018 season (add more talent on the D-line to go with Reed and Clark) has turned into a crisis that they continue to struggle to solve.
Here’s a reminder of the 2019 stats:
— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)
— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall
— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL
— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)
— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)
— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest
— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest
— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL
— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)
— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall
— They had 131 during the regular season — fourth most.
It’s not Seattle’s only issue either. It’s quite a few years since John Schneider said on the radio he wanted the Seahawks to become the bully again. That never happened. They have some physically imposing players — such as Duane Brown and Chris Carson. The Seahawks, however, are not bullies. We saw that when Cody Barton was given a prime opportunity to slam Aaron Rodgers into the Lambeau turf during the playoff game but instead allowed Rodgers to execute a block to spring a nice gain.
Quite aside from having to fix this enormous need on the defensive line — they’ve also got to draft some players this year who won’t be blocked by 36-year-old quarterbacks on the perimeter.
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Isaiah Wilson is a probable option for the Seahawks
I’ll preface this by saying these are some of the options. Of course there are others that they could be higher on than I’m suggesting here. Yet we have a decade of evidence to work with in terms of previous decisions. So this is my best current guess.
Options at #27
Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
Austin Jackson (T, USC)
Ezra Cleveland (T, Boise State)
Cesar Ruiz (C, Michigan)
Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)
Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)
Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)
Despite Seattle’s need for pass rushers, the options are severely limited in round one. The best fits in the first frame are at offensive tackle and the skill positions.
There’s clear evidence that the Seahawks value size, explosive power and run blocking in offensive linemen. They want speed and suddenness at wide receiver. They also have a physical ideal at running back that’s in the 5-10-to-6-0 range in height, 225lbs in weight with explosive traits.
At the combine, Isaiah Wilson finished second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF. That means he’s the second best combination of explosive traits and size in the O-line class. Although a lot of people will try and steer you to focus on things like agility for offensive linemen, there’s much more evidence that the league is focused on explosive traits (as highlighted in our combine preview). The Seahawks are no different in that regard.
Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland were also among the most explosive linemen at the combine. All three players, including Wilson, have +33 inch arms. Jackson and Cleveland are more suited to playing left tackle than right — yet all three players fit the typical physical profile the Seahawks have looked for in the Carroll era. Brandon Shell’s contract is more draft hedge that sure-fire solution. Jackson and Cleveland could also be groomed to be long term successors to Duane Brown.
At the moment the Seahawks appear set to carry Justin Britt’s contract and are well stocked with B.J. Finney and Joey Hunt in reserve at center. If it stays that way, they likely won’t spend a high pick on the position. However — Cesar Ruiz is an outstanding player with the size, length, explosive traits, character and leadership to lock-down the position for a decade. Check out my interview with Ruiz here.
The Seahawks have only drafted one receiver in the first four rounds under Carroll who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster. That was Chris Harper in 2013 — who ran a 4.50 and was taken in the fourth round. Quickness, speed and suddenness — regardless of size — has always been central in decision making at receiver. Again, we highlighted why in more detail during our big combine preview.
Jalen Reagor (4.47), Denzel Mims (4.38) and Justin Jefferson (4.43) fit the bill. Reagor’s explosive leaping ability to win contested catches and his ability to create easy separation could be especially appealing. Mims is a chunk play specialist who wins a lot of 50/50 balls. Jefferson is extremely reliable, has a terrific wingspan and according to PFF had the highest contested catch conversion of all draft eligible receivers.
Seattle wants to attack teams downfield in the passing game. It was obvious that Gary Jennings was a fit last year due to his 4.4 speed and ability to win downfield. Reagor, Mims and Jefferson play like Seahawks receivers.
Jonathan Taylor is physically the perfect Seahawks running back. His size, height and explosive testing is an ideal match. The fact he also ran a 4.39 is a mere bonus. He also creates yards after contact, produces chunk plays and is a threat to score any time he has the football. He doesn’t quite produce the physical tone-setting of a Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls or Chris Carson — but it’s still a match made in heaven. There’s a reason Taylor was so keen on the idea of hooking up with the Seahawks.
Wildcard options at #27
K.J. Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Arizona State)
K’Lavon Chaisson (DE, LSU)
Yetur Gross-Matos (DE, Penn State)
K.J. Hamler didn’t test at the combine but it’s pretty clear on tape he has the speed and dynamic playmaking quality they seek. Even with an incomplete testing profile, he’s just too good to ignore.
Brandon Aiyuk ran a 4.50 which was slower than he appeared on tape. Yet he’s such a dynamic playmaker either by stretching the field or turning a short pass or screen into a huge gain.
K’Lavon Chaisson has the lowest pass rush win percentage of any EDGE in the draft class. He suffered a torn ACL in 2018 and he doesn’t have +33 inch arms. I suspect he will last on the board longer than the media is currently predicting. Would the Seahawks take him? I’m dubious. They might be willing to roll the dice on his upside — which is also a bit of a mystery seeing as he chose not to do anything at the combine.
Speaking of picking and choosing at the combine, that brings us on to Yetur Gross-Matos. He did all the positional drills and the two jumps. Yet he didn’t run a forty or do any agility testing. Why? There was no injury. He just wanted to perform on a faster track at pro-day. That’s never a good sign or a good look. So while he looks the part with great size and length — and he’s explosive — is he quick enough to win as an EDGE? Or is he more of a developmental five-technique?
Josh Uche didn’t test at the combine so he carries an incomplete physical profile. However, he had a stunning Senior Bowl performance where he showed off a relentless ability to bend and straighten as a pass rusher and create constant pressure. His pressure percentage mark for the 2019 season is outstanding (23.3%) and his pass rush win percentage (27%) is only 0.2% behind Chase Young.
He also has 33 inch arms and comes from a school they have a lot of respect for. It might be a bit rich to take Uche in round one but if Seattle’s priority is to add a complimentary pass rusher with their first pick — Uche could easily be the man.
Julian Okwara has ideal size for a LEO pass rusher and although he didn’t test at the combine, he reportedly ran a decent 4.60 at a recent ‘pro-day’. Okwara was third in pass rush win percentage (23%) behind only Young and Uche. He leads all players eligible for the draft in pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 (19.1%).
Jabari Zuniga ran a 1.61 10-yard split at 264lbs and he’s the third most explosive defensive lineman in recent history behind only Myles Garrett, Ben Banogu and Solomon Thomas. In terms of weighted TEF (which accounts for weight + testing) he’s in the same range as Cesar Ruiz and Ezra Cleveland. He reportedly ran a 7.03 three-cone at Florida. His pass rush win percentage is 20% and he rushed from both end and tackle in college. He’s inconsistent and his arm length is 1/8 of an inch below the 33 inch threshold — but there just aren’t many players in this class with his physical profile, speed and upside.
The Seahawks have targeted two types of linebacker — incredible athletes and players who run elite short shuttle times (expressing outstanding short area quickness). Willie Gay’s combine performance was eerily similar to Bobby Wagner’s display at his pro-day in 2012. They ran the same 4.46 forty, the same 39.5 inch vertical and the difference in their three cone and short shuttle times was 0.02 seconds. There are question marks about Gay’s character but Willie McGinest has gone to bat for him recently (and he’s someone Carroll could consult pre-draft). Gay also ticks other boxes — he defends screens and the perimeter run very well plus he’s a playmaker who creates turnovers. The only question is whether the Seahawks view linebacker as a priority need with their first pick, which is debatable.
Josh Jones is not as explosive as some of the options discussed for the #27 pick. He didn’t fair particularly well in TEF or weighted TEF. Yet he has a demeanour on the field the Seahawks will like, he matches the size profile they want and he’s very capable of being developed to play either tackle spot or guard.
Wildcard options after trading down from #27
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)
Prince Tega Wanogho (T, Auburn)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Terrell Lewis (DE, Alabama)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of the best players in the draft at any position. He’s insanely explosive and physical. His ability in the passing game as a receiving option is about as good as you’ll see from a running back. He energised LSU during their title run and his jump-cut, acceleration and shifty agility is on a par with Barry Sanders (seriously). He doesn’t fit Seattle’s size ideals for the position and it’d be some move to take a running back first up. Yet Edwards-Helaire has everything you want at the position and he plays with a chip on his shoulder because of his height. Sound familiar?
Prince Tega Wanogho is the forgotten man of the draft class after injury kept him out of the Senior Bowl and combine. Don’t sleep on him though. He’s a very athletic and physical offensive tackle who moves well in space and could provide real value outside of the first round.
Raekwon Davis is a difficult player to work out. Physically he looks like a first round pick. The way he plays the run and solidified Alabama’s interior line also warrants early-round consideration. He shows flashes as a pass rusher too — hinting at untapped potential. Yet we’ve seen players fall due to a lack of sack and pressure production and Davis also has some maturity question marks according to reports. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-40 or dropped deep into day two. Either way, he’s a physical force who fits the Calais Campbell mould Seattle has been searching for.
Terrell Lewis has a great pass rushing frame (although he’s a little high-cut) and his pass rush win percentage (19.8%) and pressure percentage (19.8%) are both impressive. Yet Alabama uses so many stunts and he has a tendency to want to dip inside all of the time and rarely tests an offensive tackle with speed off the edge. He handles his business in the running game and can drop into coverage. Yet there’s a significant injury history and you just want to see him win a bit more with pure quickness and speed.
Options at #59 and #64
Robert Hunt (T/G, Louisiana-Lafayette)
Damien Lewis (G, LSU)
Lloyd Cushenberry (C, LSU)
Matt Hennessy (C, Temple)
Nick Harris (C, Washington)
Hakeem Adeniji (G, Kansas)
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Justin Madubuike (DT, Texas A&M)
Hunter Bryant (TE, Washington)
Kyle Dugger (S, Lenoir-Rhyne)
Matt Peart (T, Connecticut)
Robert Hunt is everything the Seahawks look for in an offensive lineman. He’s tough, physical, well sized, a tone-setter in the running game, he has positional flexibility, he’s faced football adversity and succeeded and he’s a terrific character. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of their ‘got to have’ guys in this class.
Damien Lewis has had to go through so much to get to the NFL. He is the definition of grit. He’s also a tremendous guard who shone at the Senior Bowl and dominated for LSU during their Championship season. He has the length and explosive traits they like but he is somewhat limited in terms of positional flexibility (he’s a guard only). Even so — he’s very underrated and warrants consideration on day two.
If the Seahawks need to draft a center and part ways with Justin Britt, there are three great options in the second or third round range. Lloyd Cushenberry and Matt Hennessy both had tremendous Senior Bowl performances and Nick Harris’ tape is far better than anything he showed in the 1v1 drills in Mobile. All three players are mature, high-character, high-intensity linemen. Hakeem Adeniji is a sleeper for round two as one of the most explosive O-liners in the draft. He played lights-out at the Senior Bowl too.
If Jonathan Taylor is the physical prototype at running back for Seattle, Cam Akers isn’t far behind. He ticks all the boxes for size and explosive traits. The Seahawks need to bolster their depth at running back in this draft so don’t be surprised if they take Akers in round two. It’s possible it could be Taylor early or Akers as the fall-back. But the likes of D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins and of course, Edwards-Helaire, warrant consideration. It’s a top-heavy running back class with five great options early.
The Seahawks have a certain way of doing things at defensive tackle. You have to be disciplined in the one-gap system, you have to do your job and ideally you have the athleticism and power to make plays within the scheme. You can’t freelance and move around and be reckless. Madubuike is intriguing for many reasons. Firstly, on tape he’s the ideal one-gapper. He plays off the shoulder of the offensive lineman very well, he stays clean and he’s difficult to shift in the running game. He has +33 inch arms and he does a great job with leverage. His pass rush win percentage of 14.9% was third best among defensive tackles in this class (behind only Javon Kinlaw and Jordan Elliott). And yet it feels like there’s more to come from him as a rusher. He ran a superb 4.83 at the combine and looked tremendous during drills — moving with great fluidity and ease.
Kyle Dugger is an alpha male. If you want to talk about grit and character — he has it. He possibly won’t last to #59 or #64 but his combination of speed, physicality, character and special teams value could be appealing. I’m not sure Seattle will prioritise the safety position though. That’s why I didn’t include Antoine Winfield or Jeremy Chinn in the first two groups. They have Quandre Diggs and Bradley McDougald plus they’re only a year removed from spending a second round pick on Marquise Blair. There’s not much point collecting young safeties only to have them sit on the bench.
Matt Peart performed well in TEF, had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and his measurements are first class. He’s 6-7, 318lbs and he has 36 5/8 inch arms. His coaches speak positively about his willingness to be coached. He’s experienced at right tackle but could be groomed for either side of the line. He has enormous potential.
Wildcard options at #59 and #64
Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State)
Bradlee Anae (DE, Utah)
Laviska Shenault (WR, Colorado)
Logan Wilson (LB, Wyoming)
Bryan Edwards (WR, South Carolina)
DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State)
Curtis Weaver has an uncommon body shape for a pass rusher and he has short arms. Yet all he did at Boise State was provide sacks and pressures. His pass rush win percentage was fourth best in this class at a very healthy 22.9%. His pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 combined (18.2%) was second only to Julian Okwara. There’s one test to keep an eye on — the short shuttle. This is a position where the Seahawks seem to value a good short shuttle time. Weaver ran a superb 4.27. As noted in my write-up on Weaver a month ago — that puts him in good company. I’m not sure the Seahawks will take a punt on a player who is so unlike every other player at his position in terms of frame — but he has the production and they need someone who can get after the quarterback.
Bradlee Anae has short arms, he ran a 4.93 at 257lbs and he only managed a 7.44 three cone and a 4.43 short shuttle. Nothing about his physical profile says high pick or Seahawks selection. Yet the results go against everything that profile tells us. His pass rush win percentage of 20.2% was superior to Zach Baun (20.1%), Jabari Zuniga (20%) and Yetur Gross-Matos (18.9%). He was a terror at the Senior Bowl. He was a captain at Utah — a school they often draft from — and he plays with his hair on fire. They might stick to twitch after L.J. Collier’s rookie season but I’m loathe to rule out Anae completely.
For Laviska Shenault, the consistent injuries are a major concern. So is the inability to properly medically clear him in the lead up to the draft. However — a year ago the Seahawks took a shot on upside at the position at #64 and delivered one of their best draft picks over the last few years in D.K. Metcalf. They might be tempted to take another shot if Shenault falls — which seems increasingly likely. The better question might be — how much upside does he actually have after running a 4.58?
Logan Wilson had a tremendous combine. He was a three-year captain at Wyoming, a constant playmaker and he’s a calm, mature character. He moves very well in space, does a terrific job working against the perimeter run and unlike some Seahawks rookies — he knows how to get off a block and make a play. He didn’t run a 4.10-4.19 short shuttle to put him right in the mix but his 4.27 time is still good — as is an impressive 4.63 forty. For more on Wilson click here.
There are three big, powerful defensive tackles who might appeal to the Seahawks as cheap, serviceable run blockers. Leki Fotu at Utah is one. Rashard Lawrence at LSU is another. DaVon Hamilton arguably has more upside. He flashed real presence in 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl and then had a good combine in terms of explosive testing. 37.5% of his tackles in 2019 were TFL’s. He’s a plug-in-and-play tackle who could create a really physical duo with Jarran Reed.
Meanwhile — the latest on Jadeveon Clowney is Mike Garofolo says the chances of him re-signing in Seattle are ‘slim to none’. If that’s true, then they need to move on pronto and go and make some other moves. They cannot see a weakness in the pass rush, lose their best defensive lineman (and self-confessed huge priority) and then believe they adequately dealt with the situation by signing Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa, before handcuffing themselves to defensive linemen in the draft.
Whether it’s Everson Griffen, Yannick Ngakoue, Matt Judon or someone else. This needs to be addressed.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s interview with Lance Zierlein. I’ve got two more interviews scheduled for Wednesday. Stay tuned for details…
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Today’s pre-draft interview is with Lance Zierlein. He does an outstanding job compiling scouting reports on hundreds of prospects for NFL.com (viewable here).
Regulars will know we’ve rated both players in this range for some months now. I want to speak specifically about Wilson. The Seahawks love huge, hulking offensive linemen with power, an edge and run blocking ability. They also like explosive linemen — and Wilson ranked second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF.
Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks decide to spend a high pick on Wilson, potentially at #27 (although trading down seems likely again). Minnesota at #22 or #25 is another option. Tennessee and Miami are possible options too.
I think it’d be a great pick. Wilson has major potential. The signing of Brandon Shell feels like a hedge more than a definitive move to replace Germain Ifedi. The Seahawks under Carroll and Schneider have regularly targeted linemen early.
“He is one tough, nasty guy… He’s the right tackle but I guess you could play him on the left and get by. He needs to learn to use his hands more. He’s strong and really nasty.”
“I think people are asleep on him… He could play on the left side. He’s enormous. He’s just not as clean of a package as Thomas. Thomas is a cleaner kid. But there’s film of Wilson where he looks every bit as good as Thomas.”
If they finally draw a conclusion to the Jadeveon Clowney saga and potentially find a way to add Everson Griffen too — they’d have optimal flexibility in this draft to tap into the strong areas — namely O-line and the skill positions.
And if you’re not sold on Wilson — go and watch Jake Fromm tape on YouTube. You’ll notice he has an obscene amount of time in the pocket. That’s on Wilson and Andrew Thomas. They were both superb in 2020.
If you want to add a physically imposing offensive tackle — he’s the next best on the board after Mekhi Becton.
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Before I get into the notes, check out my latest interview with a NFL draft prospect. This time it’s Michigan center and future first round pick Cesar Ruiz…
Are the Seahawks trying to use the draft to their advantage?
As we edge closer to the draft and with Seattle’s pass rush need still mostly unaddressed, I’ve been trying to figure out what the plan is.
Could they be trying to use the draft as leverage?
The event on April 23rd provides a deadline of sorts without having to spell it out.
For example — Jadeveon Clowney might think his options will be better in a few months. However, teams who end up spending picks on defensive linemen will be less inclined to make a move. There aren’t going to be many teams with the cap space and potential to contend willing to pay him what he’s currently being offered.
That doesn’t excuse Seattle’s inactivity. They called Clowney a ‘huge priority’ and consistently stated their desire to fix the pass rush. Just because he received a cold market doesn’t mean he has to accept whatever the Seahawks offer. He’s well within his rights to think he carried Seattle’s D-line in 2019 and that he’s a superior player to Dee Ford and Olivier Vernon — two players paid an annual salary at about the rate he’s now asking for.
The Seahawks are still risking losing him and weakening their team in 2020. For the sake of getting him at their value and padding the roster with journeymen — that warrants a critique.
Even so — it stands to reason that both parties will want/need this sorted by April 23rd. The Seahawks don’t need to set a deadline and neither does Clowney. One exists in the form of the draft. If nothing is resolved three or four days beforehand, they’ll possibly move on.
What about other options?
Everson Griffen’s quiet off-season seems to indicate he’s being particularly selective on his next move. Understandably so, given his recent mental health struggles. It feels a little bit like that option will always will be there for Seattle and it could be that Griffen signs anyway, whatever happens with Clowney, either before or after the draft.
I do wonder if Yannick Ngakoue remains a possibility too. A few teams might be playing the game a bit here. With both the player and team seemingly prepared to move on — now it’s about Jacksonville trying to get maximum value. And while they won’t give him away (just like Seattle refused to give away Earl Thomas) — there will also come a time when they understand they’ve got to get the best possible return this year. As we saw with Clowney in Houston, Ngakoue’s value will only decrease if this goes beyond the draft.
The Seahawks might still be willing to do a deal similar to the one Tony Pauline suggested. That would mean trading #27 to Jacksonville and then swapping #59 for #42. The Jaguars get another first round pick but they also move down a bit in round two. The Seahawks get Nagkoue and still pick twice in the first two rounds.
Any trade will almost certainly depend on what happens with Clowney. Plus you’d have to wonder why they’d be willing to pay Ngakoue a big contract but not Frank Clark or Clowney. The Seahawks aren’t going to go into next season with Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin, Rasheem Green, L.J. Collier and a rookie as their pass rush though. They just aren’t. And if the Clowney deal doesn’t work itself out — then Ngakoue probably remains an option.
A year ago the Frank Clark trade happened two days before the draft. That’s when things ramp up. It could be that Nagkoue is similarly dealt in that timeframe. The Jaguars will have exhausted all avenues and they’ll know what’s on offer. As long as someone is making a reasonable proposal (which is probably a late first or second round pick), then a trade remains very possible.
As much as we’ve critiqued the off-season so far (and rightly so because at the moment the biggest need remains unaddressed) — there’s still an opportunity to get this right. That’s necessary because while there are some pass rush options in this class (likely between picks #35-75) this is very much a draft where you want the freedom to target skill position players and offensive linemen.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s two round mock draft with detailed commentary on each pick…
You can now support Seahawks Draft Blog via Patreon by clicking the tab below.
I’ve put together a two-round video mock draft. It’s not like the other mock drafts on the internet. Check it out. Kill an hour. Tomorrow I’ll post my latest interview, this time with Michigan center Cesar Ruiz.
Firstly though, I want to talk about the latest instalment in the tiring Jadeveon Clowney saga…
From @SportsCenter earlier: Cleveland Browns have shown interest in Jadeveon Clowney, and some people around league believe Cleveland got closer with Clowney than other suitors, though nothing ultimately happened from recent talks. Seattle's offer hasn't been what Clowney wants.
Maybe both parties are sat at home right now wondering how it’s come to this? Probably so. But the reality is if Clowney isn’t interested in Seattle’s current offer it’s about time they sort this out one way or another.
The Seahawks can’t go into the draft without clarity. How do you know what to do? Do you have to go heavy on pass rushers or not? Do you need time to negotiate fully with Everson Griffen and organise a physical?
Neither party is coming out of this well. Neither party has the upper hand either. Yet the main losers are the fans. They’re desperate for good news at a time when there’s precious little to enjoy in the world.
Both the Seahawks and Clowney are serving up a frustrating stalemate.
Some fans (not all) will question the plan, the direction and the execution of what was seen to be a vital off-season. Some will feel despondent. This is no longer a team in the middle of a reset. They had money and draft picks. It might be premature — but the Seahawks haven’t addressed their greatest need or retained the player they stated was a ‘huge priority’. They’ve done little to make up for it elsewhere. There’s been no reassuring words — just radio silence — despite other GM’s and coaches conducting conference calls with the media recently.
So the saga continues. It’s a bit more Indiana Jones 4 than Raiders of the Lost Ark, unfortunately.
Clowney has more or less exhausted all of his options by now. He knows what’s out there. And while teams might be willing to offer him a better deal weeks or months down the line when he might be able to do a medical — he also runs the risk of that not being the case. And if he’s not careful — he’ll be forced to take whatever offer remains rather than picking a destination.
The Seahawks aren’t exactly in a champion position either. The pass rush hasn’t been fixed. They run the risk of having to fight the draft as it’s a far greater class at the skill positions and on the offensive line. They went into the 2019 draft without an adequate pass rush and ended up with Cassius Marsh, L.J. Collier and Ziggy Ansah. The Houston trade for Clowney came out of the blue right before the season. You can’t bank on a gift like that emerging two years in a row.
If the Seahawks don’t get the pass rush sorted, we could be here again in 12 months time talking about the same things all over again. It shouldn’t be acceptable to anyone for this team to have a pass rush issue for three consecutive off-seasons. Especially if the season ends up being a rehash of what we’ve seen since 2015 — good but not good enough to seriously contend.
A resolution is required. It can’t be allowed to drag on much longer.
Here’s the mock draft…
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Today’s conversation is with LSU guard Damien Lewis.
We discussed his upbringing, his journey to LSU where he won a National Championship, teammates Lloyd Cushenberry, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Rashard Lawrence and how he’s preparing for the draft during the Covid-19 crisis. He also confirmed he had a formal meeting with the Seahawks at the combine.
You’re going to really like him. Have a listen below. He had a fantastic Senior Bowl and could easily be on Seattle’s radar.
You can now support Seahawks Draft Blog via Patreon by clicking the tab below.
My understanding is, from Seattle's perspective, Jadeveon Clowney doesn't seem quite ready to make a decision but need to continue conducting business; thus deal to sign DE Benson Mayowa. I'm told move cd adjust budget for possible Clowney return. Team still thinks highly of him.
— ig: josinaanderson (@JosinaAnderson) April 2, 2020
This situation remains confounding.
The implication in this tweet is that the Seahawks are saying to Clowney — you’ve waited too long and we’ve had to sign another player. So now we don’t have as much money to offer you.
At the combine Pete Carroll told John Clayton that re-signing Clowney was a ‘huge priority’. Both he and John Schneider acknowledged the striking need to upgrade the pass rush.
Yet here we are. Nearly three weeks into free agency. They’ve still not sealed a deal with Clowney. And now they’re dropping notes to the media saying their budget to get a deal done is smaller, while they continue to add journeymen types to pad out their roster.
Here’s a reminder of the 2019 stats:
— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)
— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall
— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL
— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)
— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)
— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest
— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest
— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL
— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)
— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall
— They had 131 during the regular season — fourth most.
Players like Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin are decent depth signings if they compliment starting talent. They themselves are not starters. They themselves are not going to fix any of Seattle’s issues above.
This off-season required an injection of talent into the defense. Offensively, they were a top-five unit per DVOA. The draft was loaded with receivers and offensive linemen. They could’ve added even more support for Russell Wilson in three weeks time.
It’s not a strong draft for twitchy pass rushers. And yet the Seahawks now face the prospect of having to potentially fight the board to fix their greatest weakness.
Despite calls from the quarterback to add ‘superstars’ — they haven’t signed a premier pass rusher. They’ve not got a deal done with Clowney. They’re continuing to try and win a negotiation tussle with their one star player on the D-line. If he departs elsewhere, they’ll have weakened their greatest need, not strengthened it.
Bringing in Everson Griffen as a replacement isn’t enough. You can’t have two 33-year-old book end pass rushers complimented by 29-year-old Benson Mayowa, while hoping any rookie additions have more impact than Rasheem Green, L.J. Collier and Frank Clark had early in their careers.
Worst of all, at this rate we’ll be talking about the same issues in 12 months time. They’ll be in the exact same situation.
Sometimes you have to pay the going rate. The Seahawks shirked at the idea of paying to keep Frank Clark and moved their one reliable pass rusher for a haul from Kansas City. A year later they’re now shirking the opportunity to pay Clowney.
Eventually, you have to keep your D-line talent. Even if it means spending a bit more money.
It’s especially peculiar seeing as Seattle’s scheme is predicated on being able to rush with four. They’re not an aggressive, blitzing team like Tampa Bay or Baltimore. You’d think, if anything, they’d place an extremely high priority on the position financially.
It doesn’t matter if Clowney’s market was cold elsewhere. Is it worth risking wasting a season for the sake of sticking to your guns? If the Seahawks never return to true contention, in five years will we bemoan their willingness to pay for talent? Or will we complain about their lack of activity to fix a glaring need?
Is this saga with Clowney really worth it? All for the sake of Luke Willson, Jacob Hollister, Chance Warmack, B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi, Phillip Dorsett, Brandon Shell and keeping Justin Britt and K.J. Wright’s full salaries on the books?
Whether it was signing Clowney or moving on to other options — Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue, Robert Quinn, Matt Judon or anyone else — the need had to be addressed.
When things start being played out through the media, it’s often a sign that things are moving. We saw that with Wilson a year ago.
Time is running out though — and so is the cap space.
L.J. Collier had a healthy pass rush win percentage of 18%. That was in the same range as Brian Burns (18.5%) and Chase Winovich (18%). They eventually brought in Jachai Polite for an extended trial on the practise squad. His win percentage was 20.4%.
It’s not the be-all and end-all of course. They chose not to draft Jaylon Ferguson despite his win percentage (26.6%) ranking second only to the #7 overall pick Josh Allen (30.3%).
Even so — I feel like it was a topic worth returning to now that we’re on the road to the draft.
I didn’t really anticipate having to look at this class as much as we are doing. Instead of Reagor, Hamler, Aiyuk, Wilson, Ruiz and others we’re looking a lot closer at a weaker than usual D-line group.
It’s such a priority now that they probably can’t wait until pick #59 to address this. Trading down, acquiring a pick to fill the gap between #64 and #101 and taking the guy you want in the 30’s feels realistic. I’ll represent this approach in a two-round video mock draft tomorrow.
So who could be ‘their’ guy? That’s where it gets tricky. There are so many players who don’t fit what they ideally look for — whether it’s shorter arms, slower speed or weaker agility. There are also several players who didn’t work out fully or at all at the combine.
That’s why I highlighted Jabari Zuniga a few days ago. He has an appealing physical profile, he’s played inside/out, his pass rush win percentage is a healthy 20% and he flashes on tape (even if he’s inconsistent). His arms are 32 7/8 inches long. I’m going to guess, this year, they might be able to look beyond that 1/8 of an inch.
His pressure percentage is only 15.8% though and that speaks to the inconsistencies in his game.
There are two other players I want to focus on today.
Joshua Uche is more of a SAM linebacker who can move around and rush from different areas. He does have some impressive burst and bend off the edge though (although he had a rough outing against Tristan Wirfs and Iowa).
Uche’s pressure percentage was 23.3% in 2019. Quite frankly that’s fantastic. He also showed up at the Senior Bowl including a dominant performance in the game:
Considering he has +33 inch arms and is reasonably sized at 245lbs — there’s every chance the Seahawks seriously consider taking him after a trade down from #27 with their first pick. The production and the length is there. We don’t have testing numbers but we see the burst on film. He won’t be a full time EDGE but they need to add players who have shown they can create pressure and he has done that.
They also like Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan guys and I think they’ll like his character too:
On top of his excellent pressure percentage rate, Uche was second only to Chase Young in terms of pass rush win percentage. Here’s the top three:
I suspect the Seahawks are well aware of these numbers. They’ve no shot at Young but they have every chance of getting the next two on the list. Maybe even both?
Okwara, like Uche, is long and lean with +33 inch arms and has the burst, bend, get-off and dynamism they badly lacked last season. His pressure percentage for 2018 and 2019 combined was 19.1%.
Again — he didn’t test. Yet the tape shows he has the necessary quickness. It’s going to be give and take with all of these guys. You’re going to have to take a chance on health, body type or physical profile. Ideally there’d be a clearly obvious target for #27 that you could take, feel great about and all would be good in the world. That’s not the case this year. There’s no T.J. Watt sat at the end of round one like 2017.
So it could be Uche or Okwara after a trade down. Then it could be another pass rusher at #59 or #64. That could be Zuniga if he lasts or it could be Curtis Weaver (who I wrote about here). He was fourth on the list above for pass rush win percentage at 22.9%. He could be in the conversation too — especially given he actually did the short shuttle and tested very well (although he has short arms and a unique frame for the position).
I could keep going. Terrell Lewis had a great pressure percentage rate of 19.8% but Alabama uses a ton of stunts, he has injury flags and I wrote about some of his issues on tape here. Zach Baun combines a 20.1% win percentage with a 16.5% pressure percentage and he ran a 1.54 10-yard split. Yet he’s 238lbs, has short arms and will have to play linebacker. Bradlee Anae had a 20.2% win percentage and plays with fire and brimstone. Yet he’s a modest athlete and he doesn’t possess a high ceiling.
Anae and Baun are both terrific with their hands. That’s a big deal. So again, you’re balancing out certain physical ideals, production, scheme fit and technique.
Alternatively — a lot of people think K’Lavon Chaisson will be a high pick. I don’t think he’s going to go anywhere near as early as some are projecting. One of the reasons why is his pass rush win percentage. It was 13.1% in 2019. That’s the lowest mark by any of the draft eligible pass rushers in this class.
If he lasts to #27 and they pass on him many will wonder why but that could be a reason. They could also buy into his potential and high character. LSU is a talent pool worth tapping into this year.
They could also target the defensive tackles. Jordan Elliott had a very healthy 18.7% pass rush win percentage but he lacks ideal length. Javon Kinlaw ranked second among defensive tackles at 18.1% but he’ll be a high pick. Third on the list was Justin Madubuike with 14.9%. He’s a name to keep an eye on as an ideal one-gapper with some athleticism.
Seattle using their first pick on a long term option at right tackle or one of the great receivers in this class just felt right a month ago. Now — they might have to go D-line early and often. They might be able to squeeze an offensive lineman in at #59 or #64 (by now you know I think Robert Hunt will be a target and don’t count out one of the center’s if they cut Justin Britt) but the other two picks could be about trying to find a rotation of players who can create pressure.
That’s why I think they’re going to focus on these pass rush and pressure rates. Who are the guys who were doing it in college? Bring them in and let them get after it.
They just haven’t done enough in free agency so far to warrant any other plan. And I’m not sure much changes even if they sign Clowney. They lack difference markers. They need much more.
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Yesterday I published an interview with Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy. Don’t forget to check it out. Today, here’s a conversation with Louisiana-Lafayette offensive lineman Robert Hunt.
We talked about how he’s handling the draft process during the Covid-19 crisis. He confirmed he had a formal meeting with the Seahawks at the combine. He discussed what it’s like to do a FaceTime ‘visit’ with teams. Plus he described the impact he intends to have in the league.
You’re going to love this guy. Have a listen below. He could very well be a key target for the Seahawks in the 2020 draft.
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