I wanted to represent a few different things in this projection. Firstly — a determination to address the trenches early and add a receiver (tapping into the strength of the draft). I wanted to move down from #27 and move up from #59. The Seahawks do things differently and I also wanted to show that.

#27 — trade down

I have the Seahawks trading down twice. The first move takes them into the 30’s. The second trade moves them into the early 40’s. They’ve done this a couple of times — in 2014 (moving from #32 to #45) and 2019 (moving from #21 to #47). Tony Pauline told us the Seahawks see little difference in quality between the players in the middle part of round one and the middle part of round three. I think they’ll use #27 to create assets to move around later on and collect a larger number of players in their target area. In this scenario they turn #27 into #43, #70 and #196.

#43 — Robert Hunt (T, Louisiana-Lafayette)

The Seahawks rarely take a player the mainstream media has tipped. They identify ‘their guys’. Hunt ticks a lot of boxes. He’s a dominant run blocker with great size (6-5, 323lbs) and physicality. He’s faced football adversity — playing for a High School team that often played with only 11-13 players and then going to a smaller school and succeeding — helping the Ragin’ Cajuns consistently grade well in run blocking and pass blocking per PFF. He’s capable of playing four positions on the O-line. He’s intelligent, determined and would fit the culture perfectly. Some believe Hunt would’ve worked his way into the first round had he been able to compete at the Senior Bowl. He’s one of the toughest, most physical players in the draft and could immediately compete to start at right tackle.

#59 — trade up

Having traded down from #27 to #43, the Seahawks acquired additional stock to move up in round two. They’ve done this before too — going from #56 to #49 to get Jarran Reed in 2016 and a year ago going from #77 to #64 for D.K. Metcalf. They also traded up in round three for Tyler Lockett in 2015. If an opportunity arises to go and get one of the top receivers or running backs in this draft with a small move up the board — or a pass rusher — it could be considered. In this scenario I have them moving up six spots to #53 — giving up #144 (fourth round comp pick).

#53 — Bryan Edwards (WR, South Carolina)

Edwards is a player we originally highlighted at the turn of the year and although he’s lost momentum due to injury, he’s still immensely talented. He broke records at South Carolina with 234 career receptions, 3045 yards and 22 touchdowns. He showed he can win against elite prospects including C.J. Henderson. He can get downfield but he’s also strong on screens and with YAC. He returned punts. People assume he wouldn’t have tested that well and yet at SPARQ he ran a 4.53, jumped a 38 inch vertical and ran a 4.31 short shuttle. His interviews are also very impressive. He’s mature, determined and he’d fit the culture in Seattle. Edwards would be the ideal compliment to the receivers already on Seattle’s roster. Would they need to move up and get him? Possibly so. It’ll be interesting to see which receivers last into this kind of range. Chase Claypool and K.J. Hamler could also be options — but I think Claypool could easily go to New England or Baltimore in the late first.

#64 — DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State)

Will the Seahawks wait until their third pick to address their biggest need? It’s entirely possible they go after someone like Josh Uche right off the bat to add some pass rush, or select a defensive tackle earlier. However — this is very much an offensive tackle and receiver draft early. Let’s see if the Seahawks sign a veteran pass rusher before Thursday too. Seattle will draft a defensive tackle from this class and I think it’ll be an Al Woods replacement. Someone with size and physicality. Leki Fotu is a clear alternative a bit later on. Hamilton just offers a more complete game. He’s 6-4 and 320lbs with 33 inch arms and he anchors the interior as you’d expect at that size. He also had 10.5 TFL’s in 2019, six sacks and his pass rush win percentage (12.6%) is the same as Ross Blacklock’s at 290lbs and is superior to Jeffery Simmons (11.8%) and Ed Oliver (11.4%) from a year ago. Furthermore, his 73% win percentage in 1v1 drills at the Senior Bowl was second only to Zach Baun (75%). We know the Seahawks pay close to attention to the top performers in Mobile.

#70 — trade down

A third and final trade. Having used pick #144 to go and secure Bryan Edwards, the Seahawks move down seven spots to #77 and gain pick #178. They have a few options in this projection — at running back, pass rush and linebacker. So they feel comfortable moving down a few places.

#77 — Darrell Taylor (DE, Tennessee)

I’m not entirely convinced by Taylor. If you collected his top-10 plays from 2019 and put them together in a highlights video, you’d think he was a top-15 pick. When you actually watch the games in their entirety, he’s much less effective with only the occasional flash. Even so, this isn’t a particularly good ‘edge’ rusher draft. All of the prospects have flaws or question marks. This year you have to identify the proper range to take one. You don’t want to go without — but you also don’t want to jump too early when the options are far superior at other positions. Taylor, if nothing else, gives you some upside and potential to harness. He can be dynamic off the edge with a bend-and-straighten only matched in this class by Josh Uche. Unlike Uche, however, he’s 6-3 and 267lbs and at least stands a chance of being a full time DE or LEO. His injury history is a concern but the Seahawks probably need to take some chances. It paid off with Metcalf and it might pay off here. His pass rush win percentage (18.6%) is in the same range as Yetur Gross-Matos (18.9%) and it’s superior to A.J. Epenesa (17.5%) and K’Lavon Chaisson (13.1%).

#101 — Terrell Burgess (S/CB, Utah)

It’s always worth noting the positions Seattle hasn’t addressed going into a draft. This year that’s defensive tackle, running back and nickel cornerback. They could be prioritised more than we think — or they could have some alternative veteran signings (Isaiah Crowell, for example) lined up if the draft goes a certain way. Trying to identify a nickel for Seattle is tough. This is a position where they’ve often made do, traded for a cheap veteran or plucked players from obscurity. There’s no defined physical profile either. Their best nickel has been Justin Coleman — a 4.53 runner with 31 1/4 inch arms who excelled in the short shuttle (3.98) and three cone (6.66). I’ve picked Burgess here for a number of reasons. Firstly, he’s versatile having switched between cornerback and safety. He’s been hailed for his preparation, he does a good job avoiding blocks on screens and perimeter runs (Seattle really needs to be better here), he’s very willing in run support and his tackling is good. He ran a 4.46 at the combine and he has the quickness to play nickel. He had the #2 coverage grade in the slot in the entire draft class last season per PFF. We know the Seahawks like Utah players and it won’t be a surprise if they add Burgess to the competition.

#133 — Tyler Biadasz (C, Wisconsin)

Tony Pauline recently reported there are injury flags with Biadasz and he could suffer a significant fall into round four as a consequence. The Seahawks have been willing to take a chance on players in that position before (see: Jesse Williams). If they part ways with Justin Britt, which remains unclear, they will need a bit more competition at center. Biadasz is a meat and potatoes center who excelled in the running game and he fit the Wisconsin approach to football perfectly. He’ll have limitations in pass pro against the top athletes but in the right offense he can be effective. According to PFF he has the highest percentage of positively graded blocks in the running game over the past three years.

#178 — Joe Reed (WR, Virginia)

The Seahawks need to come away from this draft with at least one legit kick returner. They might draft a receiver early who can contribute there. If not, they might save a pick later on purely for someone with return qualities. As a senior, Reed was named first-team All-ACC as an all-purpose player and return specialist. He scored twice as a returner in 2019 while averaging 33.2 yards per return — tied for second in the FBS nationally. He’s also adept at covering kicks. The Seahawks could easily target Reed earlier than this, purely with the intention of securing his special teams value.

#196 — Teair Tart (DT, Florida International)

He has great length (34 1/4 inch arms) for his size (6-3, 290lbs) and he’d provide something a bit different to the defensive line rotation. More than 35% of his total tackles went for a loss in the last two seasons. He’s a tough, physical defender who loves to hammer quarterbacks and can anchor and play with power despite being a little lighter. His biggest area for improvement is actually as a pass rusher. He’s never blown off the line despite his frame and he’s tough to move even on double teams.

#214 — Michael Warren II (RB, Cincinnati)

In an ideal world you address running back much earlier. It’s a top-heavy class and if there’s an opportunity to get a Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins or Cam Akers you have to consider it. Whether you agree with it or not doesn’t matter — it’s simply a fact that Seattle places a lot of emphasis on their running game and when it goes away, the offense struggles (as it did towards the end of last season). If they’re unable to add one of the top backs in this draft they will almost certainly add a veteran or two. That could mean Isaiah Crowell (linked at the start of free agency) and/or Marshawn Lynch (who appears prepared and ready to return if needed). Even so, they could do with drafting a younger body. Warren II lacks the upside to be anything more than depth and competition but he’s rugged and physical, well sized and he finishes his runs.

The class in full

R2 — Robert Hunt (T)
R2 — Bryan Edwards (WR)
R2 — DaVon Hamilton (DT)
R3 — Darrell Taylor (EDGE)
R3 — Terrell Burgess (Nickel)
R4 — Tyler Biadasz (C)
R5 — Joe Reed (KR)
R6 — Teair Tart (DT)
R6 — Michael Warren II (RB)

Final thoughts

This is only one projection and certainly not a definitive ‘this is exactly how I see it playing out’. We’ve talked about so many different scenarios, so many different players. I could easily see them going running back much earlier, or taking a pass rusher first, or adding another linebacker at some point. We’ve talked about all of the different possibilities by now, looked at so many scenarios. On Monday I will publish a long read on the different positions, what the Seahawks look for and the players who could be targets at each position.

What I like about this projection is it feels very ‘Seahawks’. Going against the grain, seeking ideals and preferences, looking for grit. As long as they sign at least one top veteran pass rusher, this projection addresses their needs. They must add a kick return specialist, a defensive tackle, a nickel cornerback and a running back. They must focus on toughness and physicality and bolster both lines. They need to draft at least one pass rusher.

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I’ve updated the horizontal board today (click the image to enlarge).

This will likely be the final update. I’ll post it again ahead of the draft if you want to use it to follow along.

It’s a few years since John Schneider stated the aim was to become the bully again.

It hasn’t really happened.

Seattle has some very physical players — such as Duane Brown and Chris Carson. There are also a handful of individuals on defense who fit the bill.

They haven’t, however, been able to impose their will on opponents as often as they’d like.

The clearest example of that is their home record in recent years. They’re 14-10 since 2017. The problem reached a crescendo when they lost half of their games at Century Link field in 2019.

What happened to the intimidating, daunting prospect of facing the Seahawks in Seattle?

They had one-point victories against lowly Cincinnati and the LA Rams, needed overtime to beat the Buccaneers and nearly blew a handsome lead against the Vikings. Those were the four wins.

The four losses including three games where they were whipped in the trenches — O-line and D-line. Yes there were turning points against Baltimore (Russell Wilson’s bizarre pick-six), New Orleans (special teams mistakes) and Arizona (injuries). It was also difficult to watch all three opponents push the Seahawks around once the game started to ebb away.

Their final home game — against the 49ers — isn’t really fair to judge. By this point the Seahawks were decimated by injuries and facing the NFC’s top team. Yet the way that game ended masked what really happened. Seattle were clearly second best for three quarters and comfortably so. Russell Wilson finding a groove at the end almost pulled off a famous and improbable QB-inspired upset. The Niners are better up front, though. The Seahawks will need to close the gap to win the NFC West.

That’s not to say anyone should expect clean and unbeatable at home. They’ve never been that in the Carroll era. They had frustrating, close and strangely difficult home games even in 2013 and 2014.

However — they also had an ability to be the intimidating force. Marshawn Lynch on one side of the ball, Kam Chancellor on the other. Lines with physical players who could help ‘complete the circle’ as Carroll likes to call it.

They’re still trying to complete the circle in this reset.

They fixed the running game in 2018 and it felt like they’d reconnected with their identity. Yet in 2019, the collapse of the defense put them almost back at square one.

So how do they address this? Because they’re not able to recreate Beast Mode or Bam Bam.

The best way to connect the offense, defense and special teams is to become even bigger, tougher and better on both lines.

That’s why I think Tony Pauline has been reporting it’ll be Seattle’s focus in this draft. I suspect those games against New Orleans and Baltimore have stuck in the mind.

It’s not the only focus, of course. Drafting a receiver early isn’t going to make Seattle’s defense and pass rush any better and it’s not going to make the Seahawks any tougher to beat. They could still draft one in the first two rounds and tap into this great wide out class. They don’t need to spend #27, #59 and #64 all on the lines to achieve their goal.

They do need to concentrate primarily on the trenches though. If you want to play the way the Seahawks want to play, you’ve got to commit to both lines.

They’ve done that a bit with their O-line free agency moves. Only a bit, mind, because they’be added journeymen. They’ve also done nothing to address the glaring D-line need aside from replace Quinton Jefferson and Ziggy Ansah with two more journeymen. Presumably they will sign a veteran edge rusher in the coming days or shortly after the draft.

Tougher, bigger, stronger, faster might seem like mere buzz words but that has to be the target in the draft.

That’s why players like Robert Hunt could be ‘must haves’. It wouldn’t even be that surprising if the Seahawks were willing to trade back from #27 into the early 40’s with Hunt in mind. It’s why Isaiah Wilson’s size could be appealing in the late first round. It’s why they’re probably going to take a defensive tackle early. The bigger and stronger the better — and that’s why we’ve looked at guys like Raekwon Davis, DaVon Hamilton and Leki Fotu. Tough, big, brutish defenders. They’ve got to compliment that with speed off the edge. Raw, sudden speed. They’ll need to find that somewhere — whether it’s an early investment in someone like Josh Uche or a later punt on a Darrell Taylor type.

From rounds three-to-seven they might seek out second level defenders who pack a punch — such as a Kenny Robinson. They might be willing to keep adding to the linebacker spot — and nobody can question the toughness of Willie Gay Jr, Logan Wilson or Malik Harrison.

They can no longer rely on the Rasheem Green’s and Cody Barton’s to get them where they need to go. The Seahawks roster in 2012-14 was about as physical as a team can be. They can’t regenerate Marshawn and Kam. They can certainly go and add some size and some edge and some nasty.

Whenever week one takes place, they need to be the intimidating team on the field. Especially on defense. That’ll continue to be the case while ever they’re playing Pete Carroll’s brand of football. That’s the only way Carroll completes his circle and avoids Groundhog Day with another wildcard or divisional playoff defeat.

And as noted earlier, it doesn’t mean you fight the board to avoid the skill positions. They have to add a running back at some point. Preferably that’s also a physical player — such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Zack Moss (Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers are also physical runners). Receiver is a different situation. You want explosive — and they can find that with players like Jalen Reagor and Chase Claypool. You also want dynamism and speed and that could mean a different and more diminutive target such as K.J. Hamler.

We know the Seahawks like to tap into the strength of a draft class. This year, that’s the receivers. So at some point they’re going to address it along with running back.

Ensuring that both lines are sufficiently bolstered could and perhaps should be the priority though. They’ve got to come out of this draft as a more robust, more physical and faster team.

If you missed yesterday’s interview with Raekwon Davis, don’t forget to check it out…

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Today’s interview is with the Alabama defensive tackle Raekwon Davis. He reveals he’s had a FaceTime meeting with the Seahawks and he discusses his career at Alabama. A big thank you to Raekwon for his time.

If you missed yesterday’s interview with Prince Tega Wanogho, or any of the others over the last two weeks, don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel and subscribe.

I also wanted to share some thoughts on Chase Claypool and acknowledge a report on Jalen Reagor. You’ll find those notes below the interview…

Jalen Reagor is one to watch

We’ve talked a lot about Reagor — throughout the college football and draft season. Aaron Wilson is reporting he’s received steady interest from the Seahawks, among others, over the last few weeks.

He’s so quick and explosive and he does what they want from a receiver — chunk plays and touchdowns. His leaping ability for a player his size is exceptional and he’s an unlikely red zone threat. He can run the go-routes and vertical stuff Seattle likes. He’s tough and competitive. Importantly he can also be a special teams threat — and the Seahawks will probably look to add a returner at some point.

We’ll see if he lasts into a range where the Seahawks can take him but he’s right up their street.

Why Chase Claypool could go in the top-40

I spent a bit of time re-watching the Notre Dame receiver over the last 24 hours and upon reflection I should’ve rated him higher than I initially did.

In a unique draft severely impacted by a pandemic, teams are probably going to identify players with a lot of potential and low risk. Claypool’s physical profile, his willingness to do a lot of different things (run block, special teams) and his mature character will make him one of those players.

His 4.42 speed at 238lbs is the same as Evan Engram — and he ended up being the #23 overall pick. The big difference between the two is Claypool’s quick release. That’s why he can easily stay at receiver. He can be a mismatch kicking inside but his quickness is a plus for the deep ball and he can eat up a cushion quickly.

Engram was clearly fast but he did his best work inside. He didn’t have the acceleration to play outside receiver. He’s always been a dynamic tight end. His three cone of 6.92 is ideal for a playmaking TE. His agility and ability to boss overmatched defenders was his calling card. He can run by linebackers with ease from a traditional tight end position, you could hide him from the coverage in that regard. Then the three cone showed up in his ability to change direction, separate and use the open space and the seam to his advantage. This also worked really well in the red zone.

Claypool is more like Mike Evans — the #7 overall pick in 2014. At Texas A&M and at Tampa Bay he’s shown a god-given ability to stretch teams with speed despite being 231lbs. He was a natural at getting downfield and separating. You don’t see many players who can do that. Evans was also a very natural hands catcher and he just beats defenders up. He uses his size to his advantage. As soon as he emerged at Texas A&M you could tell immediately he was going to be a high pick.

Evans only ran a 4.53 but he was as sudden as a 230lber can be. He also had great body control and he was tough. He also blocked well. There aren’t many 230lbs receivers running a 4.53 who go in the top-10 these days. Evans did, justifiably so, because his talent was obvious. And like Engram he had the three cone speed (7.08) to work openings across the middle too.

Claypool has greater straight line speed but maybe isn’t quite as fluid and smooth as Evans and we’ll need to see if he can boss pro defensive backs in the same way, master the back-shoulder reception and become that rare thing — a high-production possession type who’s equally capable of beating you with 10 catches for 80 yards or 3 catches for 150.

Nevertheless, that’s what Claypool should aim for. That’s what he’s capable of.

He showed an ability to do one thing as well as Evans at the Senior Bowl — create subtle, late separation:

It’s also worth noting that Nolan Narwocki graded Evans as a late first or early second round pick in 2014 in his NFL.com profile. A few people felt that way — even though to others it was obvious he would go a lot earlier. It’s possible Claypool will also go earlier than some are currently projecting.

There’s no doubting he’s an X-factor. Whether it’s winning at the red-line or operating in the slot, he’s incredibly difficult to cover and has to be accounted for. In his first year you can have him excel on special teams and as a complimentary weapon. There won’t be any redshirt here. The receivers who adapt quickly to the league are either the world class, exceptional athletes, the players with strong catching technique and ball-tracking skills or the ones willing to find ways to contribute.

Claypool ticks those boxes.

Where could he land? Don’t be surprised if New England seriously considers him at #23. They love these mismatch difference makers and look how they suffered in 2019 without Gronk. The Ravens are another team at #28 who could show interest. Claypool’s willingness to block in the running game will appeal for their offense — plus he also has the ability to be the perfect compliment to Hollywood Brown.

The Seahawks could also show interest. We know 4.4 speed or faster is the benchmark for early picks. The question is whether they want this type of player. They’ve padded their depth at tight end and the addition of Greg Olsen is surely to max-out the opportunities over the middle and down the seam. With D.K. Metcalf being the big target outside, you’d think they’d be looking for a more diminutive, quicker receiver (perhaps with some kick return qualities). Some teams view Claypool as a tight end project. Again — the Seahawks have already loaded up at that position.

Even so — we know they like speed and touchdown makers. We know they like to take shots downfield and Claypool had the second highest PFF grade in this draft for downfield receiving. We know they value run blocking and a determination to contribute on special teams. They could be pretty creative with Metcalf, Claypool, Lockett and Dorsett/Ursua.

Finally, I was invited onto a UK NFL podcast yesterday to talk about the draft. You can listen below:

Listen to “Episode Six: Draft preview with Rob Staton” on Spreaker.

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Today’s interview in our lockdown series is with the Auburn left tackle Prince Tega Wanogho. He’s flying under the radar a bit after being unable to compete at the Senior Bowl or combine but rest assured he’s a talented, athletic offensive tackle worthy of a high grade.

If you missed any of our other interviews, head over to my YouTube channel and subscribe by clicking here.

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1. DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State) should go earlier than a lot of people think. When I spoke to Cesar Ruiz recently he name-checked Hamilton and Raekwon Davis as his two toughest opponents in college. On tape he does what you’d expect a 6-4, 320lbs defender to do — anchor and control. Yet he’s surprisingly effective shooting gaps and making plays in the backfield. I don’t think people realise he had six sacks and 10.5 TFL’s in 2019. His pass rush win percentage (12.6%) is the same as Ross Blacklock despite being 30lbs heavier. At the Senior Bowl his win percentage in 1v1’s was 73% — second among all defensive lineman behind only Zach Baun. If you want a combination of dynamism and stoutness in the interior, Hamilton’s your man. The Seahawks might have to move up a few spots from #59 if they want to land him.

2. There’s something to remember with defensive linemen — the Seahawks place a lot of value on gap discipline. It’s one of the reasons why they’ve never drafted a defensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms. It’s why they’ll look beyond Poona Ford’s height and value his length — because he can keep his frame clean and control his gap. A lot of the players Seattle get linked with in the media are shorter armed guys like Blacklock and Neville Gallimore. They’re more likely to focus on the players with length (+33 inch arms) such as Hamilton, Raekwon Davis, Justin Madubuike and Leki Fotu. It seems inevitable they will draft a defensive tackle next week.

3. This is a very lopsided draft in the range where Seattle will make their first pick. I can count 12 realistic offensive targets compared to just three on defense. It would make a lot of sense for the Seahawks to sign a veteran defensive end before the draft, allow themselves to select an offensive tackle or skill player with their first selection (probably after trading down) and then focus on defense at #59 and #64.

4. It might not be the worst idea to draft someone like DaVon Hamilton or Leki Fotu to replace Al Woods and then consider, if possible, also selecting Raekwon Davis. The Seahawks have stacked their O-line depth and it’s time to do the same on the other side of the ball. Davis played end and tackle at Alabama and has a similar physical profile to Calais Campbell. A front four of Davis, Reed, Hamilton and a veteran (for example, some guy called Jadeveon Clowney) would be tough on early downs. Then Davis could kick inside, as could Clowney, to allow Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin to pin their ears back. I’m not sure they’d want to load up like this, or whether the opportunity to draft both Hamilton and Davis would be available, yet having done so much to add bodies to the O-line it’d be pleasing to see the D-line receive some of the same treatment. Make Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier earn their snaps. Have depth, talent, toughness and a strong rotation. It’s time to fix this problem.

5. It’ll be interesting to see where Tennessee’s Darrell Taylor goes. If you take his top ten plays from 2019 and cut them into a highlights video you’d think you were watching a top-10 talent. The full game tape is a very different experience. He’s clearly athletic and ideally sized for a LEO rusher. There’s an injury history though and he was flagged at the Senior Bowl then didn’t work out at the combine. He was also suspended at Tennessee for kicking a team mate in the face. Taylor clearly has raw talent but how comfortable are teams drafting a player like this who they haven’t visited with or had their doctors look at? He’s just someone to keep in mind if the Seahawks focus on the ‘bigs’ and skill players early and want to take a shot on a speed rusher after their initial selections.

6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor are two of the best 25 players in this draft. Both are immensely talented and could easily go in the first round. If they last beyond that, you’re getting a steal. If either is available to the Seahawks after the inevitable trade down from #27, they’ll have a big call to make on whether to pull the trigger or wait on a player like Cam Akers (who might go in the late second or early third round) or Zack Moss (likely day three). I wrote about Edwards-Helaire a couple of months ago and Taylor has already expressed his interest in playing for the Seahawks. Taking either player early will be unpopular with some fans but the Seahawks offense suffered when their running back depth was decimated at the end of last season. On top of that — Chris Carson’s contract situation and health, plus Rashaad Penny’s knee injury — means they might need more than short-term depth. Acquiring a highly talented runner for this offense on the cheap for four or five years (the remainder of Russell Wilson’s peak) isn’t the worst idea in the world. It’d also be a case of talent meeting opportunity. Those situations have delivered recently (Frank Clark, D.K. Metcalf, Jarran Reed).

7. The Seahawks have always tapped into the strength of a class and that won’t be any different this year at receiver. It’s just a matter of when and who? Do they use the depth to their advantage by waiting until rounds 3/4 (and we know they like a fourth round receiver)? Or do they go and get one of the big names early, just as they did in the strong receiver class of 2014? Whoever they select is likely going to need to have some experience or ability as a kick returner.

8. I re-watched K’Lavon Chaisson this week. I still don’t see the special talent many believe him to be. He has short arms, the worst pass rush win percentage in the draft and an injury history. He opted not to work out at the combine despite being healthy. He has occasional wins but that’s it. He’s clearly a charismatic individual, well respected and they don’t just give out the #18 jersey at LSU. Yet after months of seeming like a top-20 lock, you’re starting to see projections where he lasts to #27. I’m not sure the Seahawks would pick him. They might. They could be one of the teams who love the potential and the character and decide they want to try and develop him into something he wasn’t at LSU. Just don’t be surprised if they don’t take him — because there’ll probably be a riot on Seahawks twitter if he’s there and they pass, even though it’s more understandable than some realise.

If you missed yesterday’s interview with Tony Pauline check it out here…

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Tony Pauline is the #1 draft insider in the business. For the last five years I’ve had an opportunity to speak to Tony about the Seahawks and the draft and it’s always a must listen.

In the interview he reveals how many first round grades are on Seattle’s board, provides the latest on Jadeveon Clowney and the search for pass rush and discusses their likely plan during the draft.

Don’t forget to check out Tony’s work for Pro Football Network (and also try out their exceptional mock draft simulator).

Meanwhile, yesterday I made reference to the Senior Bowl pass rush win percentages and how they might influence Seattle. Here are the top numbers in case you missed them:

Zack Baun — 75%
DaVon Hamilton — 73%
Jonathan Greenard — 71%
Anfernee Jennings — 71%
Josh Uche — 67%
Bradlee Anae — 67%
Cam Brown — 67%
Marlon Davidson — 63%
McTelvin Agim — 58%
Terrell Lewis — 57%
Javon Kinlaw — 57%

I was then asked in the comments section about last years percentages. For example, how did Seattle’s two defensive line picks (L.J. Collier & Demarcus Christmas) perform?

The answer is pretty interesting:

L.J. Collier — 90%
Kingsley Keke — 87%
Khalen Saunders — 83%
Greg Gaines — 82%
Montez Sweat — 75%
Oshane Ximines — 75%
Dylan Mack — 67%
Renell Wren — 67%
Demarcus Christmas — 63%
Charles Omenihu — 62%

Both players were listed in the top-10 with Collier’s score at an outstanding 90%.

It perhaps sheds further light on why they were so impressed with Collier in Mobile. It also points to the possibility of Seattle showing interest in someone like DaVon Hamilton who led the defensive tackles this year.

Something to keep in mind.

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My latest interview in our lockdown series is with PFF draft analyst Mike Renner. I would recommend checking out his coverage, including his excellent draft guide, by clicking here. A big thank you to Mike for his time.

I wanted to draw attention to some information provided within the PFF draft guide, which you can read below the interview…

Included within Renner’s draft guide are the win percentages for each player in the O-line vs D-line 1v1 drills at the Senior Bowl. It’s important to note who performed well here, given the likelihood of Seattle investing in both lines.

For a number of years the Seahawks have placed a high value on excelling at the Senior Bowl. L.J. Collier had an outstanding week in Mobile last year. Marquise Blair also attended. In 2018, Rashaad Penny performed well in the Senior Bowl game.

Here’s the list of participants they’ve drafted in the first three rounds since 2010:

First round
James Carpenter
L.J. Collier
Rashaad Penny

Second round
Bobby Wagner
Jarran Reed
Ethan Pocic
Marquise Blair

Third round
Russell Wilson
Jordan Hill
Tyler Lockett

It’s a fairly significant list. None of the group had any kind of character flags either. The Senior Bowl is an opportunity to get to know these players, see them compete and that’s undoubtedly appealing to a culture-strong team like Seattle.

So who performed well in the 1v1’s? Who might’ve impressed them enough to join the list above?

Zack Baun had the highest win percentage of the pass rushers (75%). I went back and watched the North practises this week and that number is legit. Baun was superb and clearly the most natural attacking the edge. You could see his 1.54 10-yard split on show. The problem for Seattle is he’s 238lbs and he’s fairly maxed out. Whereas someone like Josh Uche (67% win rate in Mobile) can carry 250lbs — Baun can’t. So it’s unclear if he’ll be able to rush from the line or whether he’s strictly suited to playing outside linebacker. Both players delivered at the Senior Bowl though — on top of pass rush win percentages during the season of 27% (Uche) and 20.1% (Baun).

The second best performer in Mobile was DaVon Hamilton (73%). Again, this showed up re-watching the tape. He won mostly with power and heavy hands but he’s also very capable of shooting gaps. For all the talk of Ross Blacklock being a good pass rusher — Hamilton had the same pass rush win percentage score in 2019 (12.6%). Hamilton will go earlier than many realise.

Here’s a list of the top performers:

Zack Baun — 75%
DaVon Hamilton — 73%
Jonathan Greenard — 71%
Anfernee Jennings — 71%
Josh Uche — 67%
Bradlee Anae — 67%
Cam Brown — 67%
Marlon Davidson — 63%
McTelvin Agim — 58%
Terrell Lewis — 57%
Javon Kinlaw — 57%

Both Uche and Anae also tore up the game. We know the Seahawks like to draft from Michigan and Utah too. The big question mark with Anae is the physical profile. Can he continue to be a productive sack-artist at the next level with his moderate level of athleticism?

There were no real shocks on the O-line. Lloyd Cushenberry and Damien Lewis excelled from day one onwards so it’s no surprise they were near the top. Tyre Phillips had a much better week than he was given credit for and Keith Ismael was very consistent.

Lloyd Cushenberry — 75%
Keith Ismael — 75%
Tyre Phillips — 73%
Damien Lewis — 69%
Calvin Throckmorton — 67%
Ben Bredeson — 62%
Ben Bartch — 58%
Josh Jones — 54%
Matt Peart — 54%

The pass rush stats are probably more relevant for the Seahawks and it validates projecting Uche and Hamilton for Seattle — as I did in my recent two round video mock draft:

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Free agency to fill needs, then draft for talent. You hear that a lot.

The reality is, most teams have a key need to fill going into the draft.

Even the more active teams in free agency have needs. The Eagles badly need a wide receiver. The Bengals need their quarterback, O-line reinforcements and a linebacker. The Cardinals need more help on their O-line. The Dolphins have holes everywhere.

Ideally you address as many areas as possible and match up your remaining needs with the strength of the draft. This is why the Eagles are in a strong position. They’ve set themselves up to take a receiver with their first pick, tapping into the strength of the class. They filled other needs in the veteran market.

The problem for the Seahawks this year is they have a long-ish list of needs.

While they’ve padded their O-line depth and added a much needed cornerback, they’ve struggled to add a serious influx of talent to the defense. The pass rush remains pitifully weak. They need a defensive tackle. They don’t have any long term answers on the O-line despite all of their new additions. Russell Wilson deserves more talent at the skill positions too.

They do have an extra second round pick this year to try and fill some of these needs. Yet picking in large numbers hasn’t necessarily worked out for the Seahawks in recent drafts.

This is also the first draft in recent memory where the Seahawks haven’t matched up their biggest need (D-line) with the strength of a class.

They might not be able to let the draft come to them. That’s arguably where they’ve done their best work in recent years. Capitalising on elite athletes Frank Clark and D.K. Metcalf falling to the late second round. Correctly identifying two terrific players in Jarran Reed and Tyler Lockett who were worth trading up for. None of these players, at the time, filled ‘glaring’ needs.

That mix of opportunity and proactiveness has worked well.

Hopefully they will get a chance to do that again in 11 days time. They do have some serious holes to fill though.

They need to address the following positions as a priority:

Pass rusher
Defensive tackle

This will be the case whether they re-sign Jadeveon Clowney or not. The difference between the 2019 pass rush being terrible and the 2020 pass rush being stronger will not be Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin replacing Ziggy Ansah and Quinton Jefferson. They’ve not replaced Al Woods at defensive tackle and are currently only holding Jarran Reed, Poona Ford, Demarcus Christmas and Brian Mone on the roster.

They have two secondary needs:

Offensive tackle
Running back

Brandon Shell’s contract screams draft hedge. Duane Brown turns 35 this year. It’s not a bad class to try and add someone who can potentially compete with Shell to start in 2020 and eventually replace Brown. Chris Carson’s injury history and contract situation warrants monitoring — as does Rashaad Penny’s knee injury. Plus let’s not forget how Seattle requires depth at the position to function. Pete Carroll has always sought a stable of backs.

There are two other potential needs to be addressed:

Wide receiver
Linebacker

It’s a quality receiver class and it’d be pretty remarkable not to take one in the first four rounds. The addition of Phillip Dorsett takes the pressure off a bit to take one early but you also don’t want to miss out. The Seahawks need speed and quality at linebacker. Their two starters are older and expensive. Cody Barton didn’t play well as a rookie and Ben Burr-Kirven appears to have been drafted for special teams.

It’s unlikely the Seahawks are going to be able to draft all six positions in a wholly satisfactory way. Some of these areas will need to be addressed after the draft — such as a year ago when they traded for Jacob Hollister after not drafting a tight end and signed Ziggy Ansah to try and help the pass rush.

A few people have requested I put together a horizontal draft board. This is how teams actually draft. A vertical board is essentially just a long list of players in order. A horizontal board does a better job breaking down players by position and grade.

I’ve given it a go but I’m not completely satisfied with the effort. For starters — I have barely any information on players that will be targeted on day three. There are no pro-day numbers. Usually by now we have a list of players who’ve visited the VMAC too. Now teams can talk to any player on FaceTime. There are no ‘official 30’ visits. It’s a crude attempt at a horizontal board on my behalf.

So while I can project the first few rounds, the later rounds are an abomination. And this will be the case for any person who writes about the draft and tries to do this. We have even less information than we usually have. If you showed my board to someone who works for a team, they would probably laugh. But I won’t be alone.

Here’s my initial attempt (click to enlarge):

The players in red have either current injuries that they’re still recovering from, missed significant time in college with injury or have been reported to have issues teams cannot reconcile before the draft.

As you can see, I have 19 first round prospects. That feels about right for this class. I’ve been really strict with the receivers. I suspect a lot of teams won’t have Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in round one either. But a fair projection of 15-20 genuine first round grades seems about right.

My takeaways from putting this together would be the following:

— The Seahawks could consider spending their first pick on a running back, receiver or offensive tackle. It’ll be their best chance to get a top talent from this draft. Whether they can justify it though with a glaring D-line need remains to be seen. They’ve also invested a lot of cap space in the O-line in free agency, the positional value at running back is always challenged and they do have young talent at receiver already.

— The sweet-spot for defensive linemen in this draft appears to be round two. That likely means either trading back from #27 into the 30’s or using your picks at #59 or #64 to solve those needs. They could also trade up from #59 or #64 to target a specific player — especially with an extra fourth rounder in their back-pocket.

— The board remains really thick at receiver in rounds 5-7. Recently Eric DeCosta suggested you could find a contributor in the fifth round. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen or should happen — but there’s at least an opportunity here for the Seahawks to wait for their favourite range (fourth round) to draft a receiver and focus on other needs. Of course, you can also make a great argument for targeting the likes of Jalen Reagor, K.J. Hamler, Brandon Aiyuk or Denzel Mims with the top pick.

— They need to add a defensive tackle badly. They could do that after the draft. Some options remain available — such as Damon Harrison, Marcell Dareus, Brandon Mebane or Caraun Reid (who they took a look at a year ago). It’s hardly a glorious list though. Players near the end of their careers, players who have flirted with retirement and journeymen. However — that’s often the market they’ve shopped in at defensive tackle. Not signing anyone prior to the draft, however, suggests they at least have some younger players in mind first and foremost. It’s one of the few positions they haven’t hedged in the build up to the draft.

— What are the DT options? As you can see on my board — there aren’t many. If they’re looking for an Al Woods replacement in the first three rounds — I’ve only got DaVon Hamilton and Leki Fotu in an acquirable range. Hamilton is a fringe second round talent who might need to be taken at #59 or #64 — or after a small trade down. Fotu is more of a third or fourth round type. At three technique the options are limited to Raekwon Davis, Justin Madubuike, Marlon Davidson and Rashard Lawrence. I listed Ross Blacklock and Jordan Elliott but they both have sub-33 inch arms (and the Seahawks have never drafted a defensive tackle with sub-33 inch arms) and are unlikely targets (the same goes for Neville Gallimore). So what do you do? If you want to address this position, it probably needs to be with one of your high picks. Otherwise you’re dipping into that veteran market.

— One of the big unknowns is also what kind of range you’ll need to take someone like Raekwon Davis or Marlon Davidson. Davis has early round talent as a defensive anchor with power and versatility plus untapped pass rush potential. Yet there are reports that some teams are worried about his maturity and lack of production. Davidson was a top-level recruit with massive physical potential and he has unnatural quality as an edge rusher despite his three-technique frame. Yet Auburn also took him out on running downs a lot — and that’s a concern for a player who should be an every-down contributor at that size.

— It’s a similar story with pass rushers. They need to take one. They need to come out of this draft with someone who can get after the QB. Yet the options are somewhat restricted and the value is best in round two. If you don’t take one with your first three picks — you might miss out. The board is not thick here. If you want the speed and quickness they lack you’re really looking at Josh Uche, Julian Okwara or K’Lavon Chaisson. If you want strength and power it’s Terrell Lewis. If you want someone really athletic and versatile it’s Jabari Zuniga. Yetur Gross-Matos is about potential really but he leaves you wanting more on tape. Curtis Weaver had an outstanding short shuttle and his pass rush win percentage is exceptional but it’s difficult to project his body type (and lack of length) to the next level.

— The linebacker position will be really thick and attractive from #27 going into round two but then it drops off a cliff. Unless Willie Gay Jr hasn’t convinced teams about his character and he lasts. It could be that this is a position they avoid because the need vs the availability range doesn’t match up. They do need youth, speed, talent and ferocity at this position though.

You always have to make compromises. I sense that will be an even bigger discussion point for the Seahawks this year.

It comes down to a few questions:

— What exactly is the plan with Chris Carson? Recent history says don’t pay big money to running backs, especially ones with an injury history. Yet they seem to love what he brings to the team. So how much do you want to target a Jonathan Taylor type early, if he’s available, knowing he’s everything you want at the position and has star potential? Yet if you do that — you’re avoiding the top offensive tackles and you’re putting a lot of pressure on #59 and #64 to find defensive solutions. How big is the drop to Cam Akers in the late second or early third? And how big is the drop to Zack Moss, James Robinson and A.J. Dillon? Or are you putting your trust in Carson/Penny, knowing you have the likes of Isaiah Crowell or Marshawn Lynch to potentially add down the line?

— Do you have to go defensive line first up and address that need? You might run the risk of reaching. Or if you trade down into a more comfortable range you might pass on better players just to fill a need. It’s the one position capable of pulling the Seahawks down so you need to get this right. If you wait too long — you could end up in the same position as a year ago, missing out on the best options and having to settle.

— How motivated are you to draft an offensive tackle first up that might be a redshirt? For example — if you take Austin Jackson or Ezra Cleveland, are you comfortable investing a first round pick in a player to simply be the future? It sounds great on paper. Securing an important position for the long term. Yet the Seahawks are a team trying to win now. Spending your first pick on a player who doesn’t play in year one can be problematic. With early picks you typically want a return.

— How much belief do they have in Brandon Shell? Or is he simply a physical fit that they took a low cost gamble on? They could target someone like Isaiah Wilson to be the long term future at right tackle. Yet he’s a pure right-sided blocker. And if training camp is delayed, shortened or there’s less time for a rookie to learn the ropes — do you again run the risk of spending a high pick on a redshirt if Shell is in pole position to start? It might be better finding out where Robert Hunt is slated to go and focusing on a player like that who also has great positional versatility.

— There’s also been a different O-line approach recently. They’ve signed a lot of veterans, not just this year but for the last three off-seasons now. They seem to prefer experience on the offensive line and then drafting to develop in the mid-to-late rounds. Will that continue to be the case in this draft? It’s not a thick board at offensive tackle after round one but it’s very thick in the interior.

Tony Pauline recently reported the Seahawks would focus on the lines early and often. I suspect that will end up proving to be the case. Whether it’s an offensive tackle first and then a focus on the defense line — or an acknowledgement that they need to sort the pass rush out first before turning to other needs.

In my latest video mock draft (see below) I had the Seahawks taking Josh Uche (pass rusher), Robert Hunt (OL) and DaVon Hamilton (DL) with their first three picks. It’s equally possible they go OL-PR-DL first up. And if they’re willing to draft to develop for the O-line later on, we could see a focus on DL and one or both of the skill positions (RB/WR).

The key is going to be solving as many of these needs as possible, rather than necessarily selecting the best players. That’s where the current Seahawks are.

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Once again I’ve put together a mock draft using the Pro Football Network simulator. It’s a full two-round projection including trades (although the simulator wasn’t playing ball with many of the trades I wanted to make).

Let me know what you think in the comments section. And don’t forget to check out all of the interviews on the YouTube channel if you missed them last week. In the next couple of days I’ll be adding an interview with PFF’s Mike Renner and I’ll be speaking to Tony Pauline this week too.

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The latest interview in our ‘lockdown’ series is with the former NFL GM Michael Lombardi. We discussed the impact of coronavirus on the NFL draft, the Jadeveon Clowney stalemate, how teams have become familiar with Seattle’s scheme and how the Seahawks can take the next step to return to the Super Bowl.

It was a great opportunity to speak to a vastly experienced NFL decision maker and one of the most interesting media personalities. Don’t forget to check out Michael’s work — including the GM shuffle podcast and his articles for the Athletic.

This weekend I will publish the next interview (with PFF’s Mike Renner). Plus I’ll have some thoughts on why the Seahawks should aim for upside in the draft. If you missed our new podcast this week, click here.