Seahawks Draft Blog

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What constitutes jaw dropping change?

February 15, 2018 /

Gee Scott predicted ‘jaw dropping change’ during a piece on 710 ESPN recently. Here’s what he said:

“When were the Seahawks most successful? They were most successful when Pete Carroll first got here and he says, ‘hey — I’m going to get a bunch of guys that believe and are all bought into me. So I’m going to draft that way.’ So even the folks that were here, they’re really like, ‘ah this Pete Carroll guy we don’t know about him.’ Well that’s OK because I’m going to draft the Earl Thomas’, the Kam Chancellor’s, the Richard Sherman’s, the Russell Wilson’s and so forth.

“Now with that being said, Pete Carroll’s about to do it all over again. Hence the reason why he made the huge changes with the coaching staff. And remember I said this — I’m going to say it right now. (voice rasies) There are about to be huge changes with this Seahawks team. I’m talking about jaw dropping changes to this Seahawks team. This is going to be a young team, it’s going to be unrecognisable. But at the end of the day, whoever is left still standing are people who I believe Pete Carroll thinks is going to buy in with what’s going on in the future.”

Change is expected. Mike Silver originally touched on it. The players themselves have discussed it. The extent of the churn is yet to be determined.

What would ‘unrecognisable’ actually look like?

There’s already an expectation that Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor will retire or at least move on. A recent report from Ian Rapoport claiming Chancellor intends to continue playing deserves context. There’s a difference between an intention and being permitted to continue. This remains a situation that will be resolved by the doctors. Pete Carroll has stated it’ll be very difficult for either Avril or Chancellor to continue playing.

Michael Bennett has also admitted he doesn’t expect to be back.

These moves wouldn’t be all that surprising or jaw dropping.

Things get serious if Earl Thomas is dealt. He spoke at the Pro-Bowl and at the very least hinted at the possibility of a hold out if he doesn’t get an extension. It does feel like one way or another, Thomas’ future will be resolved before the draft. Either he signs a new extension or the Seahawks look for a deal. They won’t give him away, however. So theoretically he could stay on his current contract. It’s probably not an ideal scenario for either party, however.

Considering the weak options at safety this year, Thomas could be in-demand.

It’s also quite an unspectacular cornerback class which could mean relative interest in Richard Sherman. Considering his injury situation and contract status (one year remaining) he’s unlikely to provide any kind of value. Yet Mike Silver did say this in his piece on the Seahawks when he predicted major change on the defense:

Sherman, who tore his Achilles tendon in November, will be 30 next spring and is due to make $11 million (with a $13.2 million salary-cap number). The Seahawks shopped him in trades a year ago and are expected to move forward without him in 2018.

Sherman and Thomas departing, on top of Bennett, Avril and Chancellor would be major change. The entire defensive core, minus Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, would be out the door. Legends would be departing. It would be the end of an era — for the NFL and the Seahawks.

It would, however, leave them with significant cap room to make moves in free agency. And they would likely acquire extra draft picks, providing an opportunity to address needs (running game) and start the remake on defense.

Not everyone will be in favour of this level of change. Increasingly, however, it feels possible.

A change in approach?

Whatever happens, it feels like the Seahawks are on the brink of going back to their 2010 roots. Competition was at the heart of everything. Constant roster churn, no stone unturned. Carroll and Schneider really went after the roster build.

If you didn’t pull your weight (Lendale White) you were gone. It was a ruthless yet fair approach. It created an immediate culture.

In recent years, Seattle has been less about competition and more about rewarding stalwarts.

Few argued against the Bennett and Chancellor extensions at the time (I certainly didn’t) yet both, with hindsight, were ill-advised. The thinking was clear. This was a competitive team still capable of competing. Change? It wasn’t needed. Rewarding great players felt like the right thing to do.

The cliff face came abruptly as the injuries piled up in 2017. Suddenly Seattle looked like an old team. Not the vibrant, aggressive, energetic bunch that took on the league and won from 2011 onwards.

Both players deserved a reward. Sometimes, however, there’s a fine balance between what’s best for the player and the team. There’ll be a significant dead cap hit when both eventually depart (quite possibly in the next few weeks).

Justin Britt’s extension also comes with a question mark. The Ethan Pocic pick a year ago looked like a hedge. Perhaps even a hint that Seattle was prepared to let Britt test the water in free agency.

Instead, he signed a deal worth $9m a year. It’s debatable whether he’d get $9m a year on the open market after a so-so 2017 season.

His dead cap hit to part ways this off-season is $5.5m more than his cap hit of $6.16m. The benefit of parting ways in 2019 is also minimal. They might be locked into Britt until 2020 unless they want to take on another sizeable dead cap hit.

If the Seahawks want to improve their running game, they need to work on the interior O-line:

That’s not to say this is all on Britt. Competent guard and running back play could be equally as important. Yet the Seahawks wanted to reward Britt for the progress he showed in 2016 and are now committed to another big contract.

Hindsight is a great thing but if the Seahawks had allowed Britt, Bennett and Chancellor to run down their contracts, they’d be about $25m better off in cap space this off-season.

The Seahawks need fewer of these deals and more competition. More players fighting to get the big money. And when those players reach a point where it’s time to talk contract, they need to be ruthless. Fewer third contracts, paying the best big money and being prepared, sometimes, to move on.

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Monday notes: Jeff Holland, Steven Mitchell Jr & more

February 13, 2018 /

Before we get started if you missed it yesterday, check out the Seahawkers podcast this week. There’s a ton of draft info from 12:37 in…

On to the notes. Featured today: Jeff Holland, Steven Mitchell Jr, Ronald Jones II and Derwin James…

— Auburn finished the SEC season superbly. They built momentum, rallied after a difficult loss to LSU and suddenly became the team to beat. They absolutely hammered Georgia, then comfortably handled Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

The two teams that eventually met in the Playoff decider — taken apart by Auburn.

They managed it playing a very familiar brand of football to Seattle (at least the 2012-15 version). Point guard quarterback. Fearsome running game. Jacked-up defense playing with their hair on fire, flying to the ball. This was a band of brothers, playing together with all three units connecting. The defense danced, celebrated and set the tone. It was like watching the LOB in 2013.

I remember thinking at the time — this is what the Seahawks used to be like. That energy, the physicality. It was a Gus Malzahn offense but at the heart of everything was a very classic combination of good running game and great defense.

If they want to get back to that — tapping into that Auburn spirit could be a possibility.

They’re not alone of course. Georgia got to the final with the same kind of ingredients. Alabama always play defense and run the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how many players the Seahawks cherry pick from those three schools.

The player I wanted to highlight today is EDGE rusher Jeff Holland.

He’s not the biggest (listed by ESPN at 6-2 and 250lbs) and it’s fair to say he’s not going to win Mr. Universe. He looks quite unremarkable in terms of his physique. He’s not the biggest or fastest.

Yet every time I watched Auburn in 2017, he stood out. He finished the season with 10 sacks, 13 TFL’s and four forced fumbles. Holland is a high-intensity, physical, fierce pass rusher with quickness off the snap. For his size he isn’t a liability against the run.

His best quality, however, is hand technique. His ability to use a two-handed swipe is highly impressive. He can rip and swim and he can beat a tackle off the edge with lean. Hand use continues to be one of the more lesser talked about features in the media — but it’s vital for a pass rusher. Holland spent a lot of time learning this skill:

Not being the biggest, fastest or most impressive athlete might dent Holland’s stock. He might not be on Seattle’s radar as a consequence. Yet there is talent to work with here and Holland did as much as anybody to embody the spirit of Auburn’s charged-up defense.

Look at this effort in pursuit (he’s #4):

On the first play he chases down the running back on a pitch, sprinting from the left hand side of the line to the right. On the second play he bullies the tackle before slamming down the quarterback on a draw.

Here’s an example of his hand use and how it keeps his frame clean and helps him get around the edge to the QB:

That’s the same play from different angles (broadcast & all-22). Look at the way he chops his hands at the tackle and stays clean.

He doesn’t have to use his hands. He has enough lean to get around the arc:

Here’s a clip where he uses the depth of the tackles’ drop to his advantage, jolts him off balance and beats him:

How is he working the goal line against the run? No touchdown here for Derrius Guice:

The Seahawks might need some of this attitude going forward:

Holland isn’t loaded with upside. He isn’t Frank Clark, Bruce Irvin or Cliff Avril. Unremarkable size and length. He probably won’t have an amazing combine. Admittedly, this would be a change of pace for the Seahawks. Against the bigger, stronger and quicker athletes at the next level, he might be less impactful.

He’s still intriguing in the middle rounds and you wouldn’t bet against this guy. Maybe they need one or two overachievers? You’re not going to have to worry about him being ‘all-in’. He might be able to fill a leadership void down the line. And if the Seahawks are moving on without Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, they’ll need to find some possible options to help the pass rush.

And he can do this:

— I haven’t spent much time studying him yet but I wanted to mention USC receiver Steven Mitchell Jr. He can be a ferocious and committed blocker. I’m not sure if he’ll be on Seattle’s radar but USC’s #4 kept showing up on Ronald Jones II’s runs. He had 644 yards and four touchdowns in 2017. He’s only 5-10 and 194lbs (per ESPN). Mitchell Jr is willing to hit though and do some of the dirty work. He seems to take a great deal of enjoyment from blocking (often celebrating after a key block). In SPARQ testing he managed a score of 107.34 with a 33.5 inch vertical and a 4.55 forty. He’ll need to run faster than that at the combine but based on his tenacity he might be a name to remember.

Here are some highlights:

— Speaking of Ronald Jones II, there’s yet more evidence why he could easily be a first round target for the Seahawks. Fumble rates are very important. Dane Brugler has worked out how each running back in the draft ranks. Jones II has the third best fumble rate in the class. Ball security is key and it’s another big positive next to his uncanny similarity to Jamaal Charles (also note LSU’s Darrel Williams at the top, a late round option for Seattle).

This is also an interesting series of tweets/clips highlighting his play using all-22:

To follow the full strand of Tweets in this review, click here. Jones II is a special player. In the past, with the Seahawks picking later in round one, we’d be having a conversation about him being off the board by their pick. We had similar conversations about Haason Reddick, Sheldon Rankins, Garret Bolles, Keanu Neal, Odell Beckham Jr and others. Players initially projected by the media as first or second round types but ultimately they go much earlier. Jones II, to me, is a legit top-20 prospect.

— We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Derwin James but one more note won’t hurt. James was invited to participate in an online game of Madden 18 on the PS4 over the weekend. He accepted the challenge against a Florida State fan, noting he would donate a pair of his cleats if he was beaten.

As you can see James won somewhat comfortably. The interesting thing is he chose to play as the Seahawks. It could be nothing. It could be something. Who knows. It’s February and there’s no harm in a bit of speculation to pass the time.

Talking draft: Seahawkers Podcast appearance

February 12, 2018 /

We cover a lot of ground here including potential Seahawks picks from the Senior Bowl, what it would take to stick with the #18 pick and why the Seahawks should consider spending an early pick on a running back.

There’s also a strand on what to look for at the combine in terms of the different positions relating to the Seahawks.

There’s plenty of info here and I’d really appreciate it if you check it out — I’m on from 12:37 in…

Saturday notes: Run-draft, Dalton Schultz & Keke Coutee

February 10, 2018 /

— The Seahawks haven’t had a running game crisis like this since the end of the 2010 season. Pete Carroll stated, clearly, at the end of that season that fixing it would be a priority. He made similar noises in his latest press conference. The response in 2011? Seattle spent their first two draft picks on James Carpenter and John Moffitt. When the lockout concluded, they signed Zach Miller and Robert Gallery.

When the Seahawks have a need they tend to go after it aggressively. And this is, clearly I think, Seattle’s biggest problem. Carroll will coach up and field a capable defense. Without the running game, one of they key focal points of his identity isn’t there. The circle is incomplete.

It’s still very early in the process. Things will change. There’s a reason, however, that we’ve spent an increasing amount of time looking at Ronald Jones II, Isaiah Wynn and Billy Price for their first pick. These are three of the players that give you a chance to properly address the running game and take the offense forward.

If they ended up trading Earl Thomas and acquiring another high pick, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if they added two of Jones II, Wynn and Price. Just at they targeted Carpenter and Moffitt in 2011.

There are defensive options that could be appealing. Maurice Hurst, Derwin James. Others too. Yet fixing the run is absolutely crucial. And Jones II, Wynn and Price are all worthy of top-25 consideration.

— With Jimmy Graham almost certainly on the way out and Luke Willson also a free agent, the Seahawks have to do something at tight end. That could be a free agent pick-up but it could also be a draft pick. Following the Graham experiment, it feels like they’re more likely to target a tight end who can block.

We’ve talked about Notre Dame’s Durham Smythe. He’s a classic ‘Y’ tight end and has shown a strong ability to feature as a blocker. At the Senior Bowl he also impressed mightily as a pass catcher. He’s well sized with a good character.

Smythe is one to watch. He has short arms though — not ideal for blocking at the line or competing for difficult red zone catches. The tight end class across the board is a bit overrated and Seattle’s options might be quite narrow. Thankfully, there’s a Stanford tight end who could also provide a solution.

Dalton Schultz is a terrific blocker. Look at the play below. Schultz goes 1v1 with the DE. He stones him at the LOS and then dumps him to the ground and finishes the block:

This is what the Seahawks need. A tight end who can actually excel as a blocker.

The difference between Schultz and Smythe appears to be length. Schutlz is tall and long but lighter (estimated to be 242lbs). Yet his ability to keep his frame clean, lock on and sustain blocks is crucial. Here’s what Lance Zierlein noted when watching Schultz:

Very tenacious and tough as a blocker. Well-schooled in blocking fundamentals. Leaned on as vital part of the run blocking unit. Initial hand placement is good. Ability to sustain and finish. Improves positioning after contact and can generate some movement at point of attack without a double team. Gave it to USC’s Rasheem Green on more than a couple of snaps when matched head to head.

Statistically Schultz has not been a big feature. Stanford have long been a run-heavy team and if anything that has increased since the Andrew Luck days. Schultz’s main responsibility is to block. I don’t think you can read too much into his paltry 555 receiving yards and five touchdowns in three seasons. He’s done what he’s been asked to do.

It could actually work in Seattle’s favour. While the rest of the league is looking for big slot receivers acting as tight ends, we know the Seahawks want to play a more classical style. They drafted Nick Vannett in round three. They might be able to land Schultz in a similar range.

There are solutions in this draft class for the Seahawks. A long list of running backs. A similarly long list of interior lineman. Now two good tight ends that excel at blocking. If ever there was a year to try and fix the running game, the 2018 draft could provide a jump start.

Here’s another video highlighting some of Schultz’s talents as a receiver/blocker:

— One other name to perhaps keep an eye on is Texas Tech receiver Keke Coutee. This isn’t a particularly exciting draft in terms of legit first round talent — but there are plenty of intriguing names for the middle and later rounds. Coutee could be one of those gems where a few years down the line, you wonder how he lasted as long as he did. Take a look:

Finally — if you missed it yesterday I was invited onto the Tasteful Profanity podcast. Have a listen using the box below:

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Tasteful Profanity podcast appearance

February 9, 2018 /

If you need something to listen to this Friday, check out the Tasteful Profanity podcast. I was invited on to talk about the draft and was also warned to expect some ‘off-the-wall’ questions. There are most definitely some of those too. I’m not often lost for words so this was a unique experience for me. Give it a listen and if you want to subscribe to the podcast via Itunes, you can do so by clicking here.

Updated mock draft: 8th February

February 8, 2018 /

If there was ever a year to sort out the running game, this appears to be it. The early talent at running back and the interior O-line truly stands out.

It’s just a shame the Seahawks are going to have to find a way to manufacture picks on day two to truly capitalise.

The defense is going to get a makeover. That seems inevitable. You could make a big case for making-over the O-line too and finally getting it sorted. Isaiah Wynn and Billy Price are fantastic prospects. Frank Ragnow could produce some of the old-school toughness and physicality perhaps lacking since Max Unger’s departure. The Seahawks have been linked to interest in Austin Corbett. There are other prospects worthy of consideration on the second and third day of the draft.

If you wanted to make some big changes you could do. How confident are they in the incumbents to provide a solution? Will a new coach in Mike Solari provide a catalyst for progress? How do they feel about Justin Britt and Germain Ifedi? It’s probably too early to make any kind of judgement on Ethan Pocic but is he considered a long term fixture now? Has he shown enough to warrant that kind of backing?

Nothing should be off the table this off-season. And that’s probably true at many positions.

Running back similarly provides an opportunity early. They’re probably going to sign a hedge of some description in free agency. They almost have to. Depending on the interest he receives, Carlos Hyde remains a decent shout.

For a while now it feels like the Seahawks have been trying to create a double-headed monster similar to the New Orleans Saints. A tough inside runner paired with a more versatile weapon. The initial internal excitement over C.J. Prosise felt genuine. It hasn’t worked so far for Prosise but it most certainly did for the Saints with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Chris Carson and Hyde would provide good competition for the ‘Ingram’ role. They could then go for a dynamic partner like Ronald Jones II. That would provide a highly exciting backfield — one to feel confident about moving forward.

Alternatively they could target two running backs in the draft to fill those holes (especially if Jones II is off the board, which needs to be considered given his incredible and underrated talent). Could they, for example, look to bring in Nick Chubb to be the thunder and someone like Akrum Wadley to be the lightning?

Here are the two possible scenarios:

— Sign Carlos Hyde, pair him (plus Chris Carson) with Ronald Jones II as an early pick

— Draft Nick Chubb and Akrum Wadley (for example) to compete with Carson, focus on O-line (Wynn? Price?) or defense first.

It’s hard to make a proper projection because it feels like there’s so much that needs to happen first. What picks will they acquire? Which veterans will move on? It’s just a shame they’re going to have to replace picks rather than add.

For that reason doing mock drafts at the moment feels more useful for other teams than Seattle. That’ll likely be the case until well into free agency, when we know what’s happening with the likes of Earl Thomas etc.

I do think, whatever happens, we’ll see the running game and offense addressed early with a focus on defense later on. This is how the first iteration of Pete Carroll’s vision was created. And while many of the national mocks and pundits will focus on potential high profile defensive departures (Bennett, Sherman, Thomas perhaps), this is a team that backs itself to coach up and develop a defense. They’ve got the track record. And that’s likely why they’re reportedly investing time in watching Jessie Bates III — looking for the gems in rounds 3-7, just as they did in 2010-11.

Here’s the mock draft with trades (detailed below):

#1 Cleveland — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#2 NY Giants — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#3 Buffalo (via Ind) — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#4 Arizona (via Cle, Hou) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#5 Denver — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#6 New York Jets — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#8 Chicago — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#9 LA Chargers (via San Fran) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#10 Oakland — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#11 Miami — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#12 Cincinnati — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
#13 Washington — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#14 Green Bay — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#15 Cleveland (via Ari) — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#16 LA Rams (via Bal) — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#17 San Francisco (via LAC) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
#18 Atlanta (via Sea) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#19 Dallas — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#20 Detroit — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#21 Indianapolis (via Buf) — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
#22 Indianapolis (via Buf, KC) — Harold Landry (LB, Boston College)
#23 Baltimore (via LAR) — James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State)
#24 Carolina — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
#25 Tennessee — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
#26 Seattle (via Atl) — Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
#27 New Orleans — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
#28 Pittsburgh — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#29 Jacksonville — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#30 Cleveland (via Min) — Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
#31 New England — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#32 Indianapolis (via Phi) — Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)

Trade details

Buffalo trades #21, #22 & #53 to Indianapolis for #3
The Bills move up to draft Sam Darnold

Arizona trades #15, #47 & 2019 R1 to Cleveland for #4
The Cardinals move up to draft Josh Rosen

LA Chargers trade #17, #84 and 2019 R1 to San Francisco for #9
The Chargers move up to draft Baker Mayfield

LA Rams trade #23 & #87 to Baltimore for #16
The Rams move up to draft Derwin James

Atlanta trades #26 & #90 to Seattle for #18
The Falcons move up to draft Maurice Hurst

Cleveland trades #33 & #161 to Minnesota for #30
The Browns trade up for Derrius Guice

Indianapolis trades #36 & #163 to Philadelphia for #32
The Colts trade up for Kerryon Johnson

Notes

— Teams aggressively traded up to get at the quarterbacks a year ago. That could happen this year too. The Bills and Cardinals need a solution and aren’t expected to be in the running for Kirk Cousins. The Chargers need to think about the future (Philip Rivers is 37 this year) and Baker Mayfield would generate some much needed excitement for the franchise in LA.

— I genuinely believe Ronald Jones II is a legit option for the Seahawks, possibly with the #18 pick. He is a fantastic prospect. I also wanted to do a mock where he’s already off the board. Thus, he ends up in San Francisco here.

— The Seahawks made a deal with Atlanta a year ago so we know they’re willing to work together on a mutually beneficial trade. This deal allows Seattle to acquire a third round pick and move down before drafting Isaiah Wynn to fill the left guard spot.

— We don’t know what picks the Seahawks are going to have in rounds 2-3. If they do trade some of their veteran players, they might be able to acquire some day two picks. For this kind of scenario to work, presumably they would have a way to land one of the remaining running backs (for example, Nick Chubb). It seems very unlikely that they’ll come out of the draft without one of the highly regarded RB’s. The running game is too much of a need and the talent pool too strong in the first three rounds.

— I don’t think it’ll be much of a shock if teams initiate some cheap trades to get back into the late first round to get at the running backs.

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Seahawks looking at Wake Forest safety?

February 7, 2018 /

Tony Pauline is reporting that the Seahawks are ‘looking hard’ at Wake Forest safety Jessie Bates III:

Eyebrows were raised when Wake Forest safety Jessie Bates III announced he was entering the draft, but this was primarily from people unfamiliar with his game.

Bates’ film is impressive — he’s an athletic center fielder who plays with excellent speed, displays great range and really stands out in pass coverage.

Though he’s just a redshirt sophomore, Bates plays disciplined, assignment football and is never out of position.

There are some who feel his ball skills are good enough that a move to corner is possible. While I don’t necessarily agree with this, I do believe Bates is the type of safety who can line up over the slot receiver when necessary.

While we presently stamp Bates with a fifth-round grade, there are a few teams who believe he could go as early as the third round. The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are two of the teams looking hard at Bates.

Anyone getting deja vu?

Back in 2010 Earl Thomas was often described as an athletic centre fielder with great speed and range. Thomas was also touted as a possible cornerback convert and he declared for the draft as a redshirt sophomore.

Bates III is listed at 6-2 and 195lbs. That’s clearly bigger than Thomas. So we’re not talking about a like-for-like player but good luck ever finding another Earl. He’s one of a kind.

People will read the report and automatically make the connection to Thomas’ uncertain future in Seattle. And that might be the right thing to do. Who truly knows what’s going to happen there? It’s impossible to speak with any certainty or authority on that topic. We just have to wait and see. Yet it seems, one way or another, something is going to be resolved in the next couple of months. Either he signs a new contract or he’s moving on.

Yet the reported interest in someone like Bates III could just be a nod to the need to prepare for the future.

So what is he all about?

I quickly went and dug out some Wake Forest games and he is a very interesting prospect. It was hard to believe some of the plays he was making as a freshman. He could read an offense, react to the quarterback and use his range to play the ball. Disciplined, decisive and a player who executes.

He had five interceptions as a redshirt freshman and two touchdowns. Teams seemed to be wary of his presence in 2017.

In one play against Florida State last September, the Seminoles broke off a run from their own one-yard line. The running back gets into the open field and has a clean run for a 99-yard score. Bates III chases him down at the Wake Forest 30 to save the touchdown.

In the same game he also had this excellent play in coverage:

He showed well running upfield to play the run, delivering a number of clean tackles when a back found the edge. Overall his tackling appears sound and he often tries to rip the ball out once contact is secured.

Bates’ is also a finisher when he gets his hands on the ball. He had a return for a touchdown in college and a couple of pick sixes:

There are big differences between Bates III and Earl though as you’d expect. He’s nowhere near as sudden and quick. Earl runs like a heat-seeking missile and plays with a relentless intensity you just barely ever see from players of any position. Bates III is more measured and he’s athletic rather than extremely fast.

Earl’s athleticism is probably his greatest asset. For Bates III it’s the ability to work out the defense and make sure he’s in the right place at the right time. He’ll read the QB’s eyes and break on the ball. He’ll identify a certain route pre-snap and put himself in a position to make a play. His range is good — but Earl’s on a totally different level (again though, that shouldn’t be a big surprise).

Bates III also looks big. Not Kam Chancellor big — but tall and long for a safety. Their body types are very different.

He appears to be a good character:

Pauline says he might be a third round target (and it’s another hint that one way or another the Seahawks are going to be acquiring picks on day two of the draft).

Increasingly I think we could see something like this for Seattle during the off-season:

— Substantial change to the roster as predicted/reported by many. John Clayton said earlier today he expects Michael Bennett to be released within the month. Gee Scott suggested ‘jaw dropping’ changes were coming. It really feels like he’ll be proven right.

— Focus on value in free agency with players being brought in on short-term contracts to see if they can become part of a new core. Possible targets could be people like Carlos Hyde, Eric Reid, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the large group of talented receivers.

— Regardless of what picks they have, the early portion of the draft could focus on improving the running game (including a high pick on a running back). The second half of the draft could be about finding young defensive talent.

On that final point — it makes sense for a couple of reasons. The early part of the draft provides good value at running back and interior O-line. The defensive options from round three onwards are capable of providing some value. One of the things I talked about in the Field Gulls podcast (listen below) is the weak edge rush options early in the draft and the possibility of some D-line/front seven gems later on:

Kentavius Street (DE, NC State)
Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
Duke Ejiofor (DE, Wake Forest)
Chad Thomas (DE, Miami)
Kemoko Turay (DE, Rutgers)
Da’Shawn Hand (DE, Alabama)
Andrew Brown (DT, Virginia)
Darius Leonard (LB, South Carolina State)
Justin Jones (DT, NC State)
Tyquan Lewis (DE, Ohio State)
Marquis Haynes (LB, Ole Miss)
Jeff Holland (DE, Auburn)

This is just a sample too. The combine will reveal more possible/probable targets.

If you missed yesterday’s podcast, have a listen here:

Field Gulls podcast appearance

February 6, 2018 /

I was invited onto the Field Gulls podcast this week. It’s going to be a busy week for podcasts — I’m set to do two more before the weekend. I’ll post all of the links on here and hopefully by the end of the week you aren’t sick of hearing my voice!

We covered a number of topics in this one. The first half is Super Bowl and general NFL stuff, the second half is Seahawks/draft/free agency.

2018 Running backs in review

February 5, 2018 /

When I put together an updated top-50 a few weeks ago, eight running backs were included:

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)
Nick Chubb (Georgia)
Sony Michel (Georgia)
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
Royce Freeman (Oregon)
Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)

It’s a strong class. There will be some depth heading into day three but the best of the talent will go quickly. It’s possible all of the names above could go in the top-75 if not the first two rounds.

We’ve already featured several of these players in greater detail but I wanted to offer some short-form reviews for each, discussing their suitability in Seattle:

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

Pro’s: Perfect modern day running back. Barkley is a swiss army knife and provides so many options. A defense has to be constantly alert to where he is on the field. Whenever he has the ball he’s a threat to score. Has the size of a power back (5-11, 228) but the skills of an Alvin Kamara. He could get Andrew Luck grades. Big, explosive, fantastic character. Amazing talent and as good as advertised.

Con’s: Looks really quick on the field but it’ll be a surprise if he runs the 4.3 times he reportedly manages at Penn State. He only ran a 4.63 at the SPARQ combine. The media will over analyse his forty time but he’s more explosive than fast — and that’s more important for a RB anyway. Expect a +40 inch vertical (he topped 38 inches in High School and he’s more explosive now).

Pro-comparisons: Barry Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott

Fit in Seattle: He’d be perfect but he’s going to go in the top-five if not #1 overall. So it’s not happening.

Predicted draft range: Top-five lock

Ronald Jones II (USC)

Pro’s: He’s Jamaal Charles 2.0. The two players are stunningly similar and look almost identical in terms of body type, competitiveness, athleticism and playing style. Despite only being around 6-0 and 203lbs, Jones II is incredibly tough and finishes runs. He has a sensational ability to avoid pressure in the backfield, work through traffic, cut and accelerate. In the open field he’s as exciting as any player in college football. A star in the making and a legit first round talent.

Con’s: You’d think he’d be great in the passing game given his skill set but he barely got involved at USC. It’s unclear why. There’s no evidence of any development in pass protection. He isn’t 225lbs so you might need to manage his workload.

Fit in Seattle: In terms of drafting history under Carroll/Schneider, they’ve consistently gone after backs that are approximately 210-225lbs. Jones II is smaller but he also looks like a phenomenal talent capable of genuine stardom. Put him next to a bigger back (Chris Carson? Carlos Hyde?) and you might have your answer to Ingram & Kamara. He looks special and the Seahawks love tilt-the-room types.

Pro-comparison: Jamaal Charles

Predicted draft range: First round, possibly top-20

Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)

Pro’s: It’s easily forgotten but for two weeks Auburn looked like the team to beat in college football. They absolutely destroyed Georgia and then beat Alabama convincingly. Johnson and a ferocious defense were the reason. He’s well sized (6-0, 212) with a similar body type and playing style to Chris Carson. He’s incredibly patient in the backfield and has drawn legitimate comparisons to Le’Veon Bell. Plays with toughness, he’s an asset in the passing game and has been a workhorse for Auburn.

Con’s: Johnson has a very upright running style and it’s problematic. He’s not squatty, plays tall and has been a walking target for big hits. Ronnie Harrison absolutely hammered him in the Iron Bowl and essentially prevented him from being anywhere near 100% in the SEC Championship. Does a good job falling forward but not the most elusive when backed into a corner.

Fit in Seattle: Considering how high they were on Carson, it stands to reason they’ll like Johnson too. They share some striking similarities. He matches up with their size ideal, he’s carried an offense and he’s tough. Do they want another back like Carson, however?

Pro-comparisons: Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell

Predicted draft range: First or second round

Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)

Pro’s: Incredibly tough running back who plays with a chip on his shoulder. Perfect size (5-11, 228) and capable of setting the tone. Classic north/south runner but doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to find space and make things happen. Not just an up-the-gut runner. Surprising speed when he gets going. Pre-injury he was one of the best athletes to ever test at the Nike SPARQ combine (143.91) and if he’s back to that level, watch out. He ran a 4.47 and managed a 41-inch vertical. Can force opponents to commit to defending the inside run.

Con’s: The injury was career threatening and in 2016 he didn’t look quite the same player. By 2017 he regained some of the explosive physicality and hopefully he’ll keep getting stronger with time. He rushed back in 2016 and lost a significant amount of weight in recovery. Not a multi-dimensional back you want to feature in the passing game. He’ll likely need to be paired with a more versatile compadre.

Fit in Seattle: They love tough, physical, gritty backs that have battled adversity. He’s a no-nonsense, 24/7 football man with a laser focus. He fits their size ideal and he’s as explosive as they like. If he’s physically back to his best and passes all the combine medical checks, he could be their guy. They also like to seek value and if Chubb drops because of the injury history, it possibly works into their favour.

Pro-comparisons: Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore, Mark Ingram

Predicted draft range: If he tests well, rounds 1-2

Sony Michel (Georgia)

Pro’s: Really came on in 2017 and found a consistent role within the offense. Extremely high character and good size (5-10, 220). Plays like a much lighter runner but is bigger and sturdier than you think. Incredible footwork and balance and finds improbable ways to dodge defenders on the perimeter and break off big gains. Only needs an opening to make a long run and can be a home-run hitter. Better working outside than inside.

Con’s: Despite his size, Michel isn’t a particularly impressive inside runner and isn’t likely to get many short-yardage carries. Not the passing game dynamo you might expect — he only had nine (!!!) catches for 96 yards in 2017. Ran a similar forty time to Nick Chubb at the Nike combine (4.46) but wasn’t as explosive (his 30.5 inch vertical was 10.5 inches weaker than Chubb’s). Not as elusive as you might expect.

Fit in Seattle: The combine will be important. He has the size they like but they value explosive traits over speed. He’ll need to do better in the vertical jump. Is he more of a compliment than a feature runner?

Pro-comparisons: Knowshon Moreno, Maurice Morris

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Derrius Guice (LSU)

Pro’s: Guice runs with his hair on fire. He’s tough, leaves his mark on the field and competes. He’s difficult to bring down and builds as the game goes on. Capable of breaking off long runs and taking a high number of carries. Did a good job spotting Leonard Fournette in 2016 when he was fully healthy and at times looked like he was destined for big things. Not overly active in the passing game but showed some potential.

Con’s: 2017 season was, in fairness, a disappointment. He was banged up but also showed some limitations. Guice isn’t a great athlete and his success is born out of sheer determination. Forget the spurious ‘reports’ suggesting he’s been running in the low 4.4’s. He ran a 4.61 at the Nike combine, managed an appalling 4.66 short shuttle and only a 30-inch vertical. He’s not a bad player, far from it, but he has limited physical potential. Guice had a tough upbringing and it’s something teams will spend time on.

Fit in Seattle: There’ll come a point in the draft where Guice could present great value. He’s intense, physical and tough. If he drifts into the second or even the early third — the athletic limitations are less of a problem. You take him and feel happy about it. The Seahawks could love his attitude to running the ball and he’s very similar to Thomas Rawls in personality and size. He likely won’t be an explosive tester though.

Pro-comparisons: Thomas Rawls

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Royce Freeman (Oregon)

Pro’s: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and some teams are going to really like what Freeman offers. Of all the running backs in this draft, he might get the broadest variety of grades. For a bigger back (5-11 ½, 234) he can really shift. If he gets an opening he can turn a good run into a great one and has shown the ability to get outside. Has the frame to be an early-down back and has been ultra-productive even during Oregon’s recent down-period.

Con’s: Doesn’t play to his size and you’re often left wanting more. He’s good — but you’d love to see a little more punishment dished out. He’s the opposite of Kerryon Johnson who always seems to find a way to fall forward. Freeman isn’t the best cut-back runner and will fit some schemes better than others. Will need to work on his effectiveness in the passing game.

Fit in Seattle: The Seahawks might be one of the teams who aren’t overly enamoured by Freeman. He isn’t going to help them set a tone up front and he isn’t a cut-back runner. He’s bigger than the backs they’ve drafted so far and might not be the most explosive tester (34 inch vertical at the Nike combine).

Pro-comparisons: D’Onta Foreman, Jordan Howard

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)

Pro’s: Good size (5-11, 220lbs) and incredibly versatile. Exciting player. Penny runs hard but with control and skill. He’s shifty enough to make people miss and if you give him a lane he’ll capitalise. Highly productive kick returner. Showed his potential at the Senior Bowl by having a relatively quiet practise week and then went about making big plays in the game. Has shown patience in the backfield. Exceptional production.

Con’s: It’s hard to imagine a middle ground with Penny. It feels like he’s either going to come into the league and be the next Kareem Hunt or he’s going to be overwhelmed. It’s hard to pick holes in his play but there’s something preventing you going all-in. Competition was weak in college and it shows on tape. Pass-pro needs serious work. Was a bit disappointing during the catching drills in Mobile which was a surprise.

Fit in Seattle: He fits the size ideal. The combine is important. They like explosive athletes at running back. How he tests in the vertical and broad jumps could be the determining factor on whether he truly fits.

Pro-comparisons: Jay Ajayi

Predicted draft range: Round 2

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