
Robert Nkemdiche could fall out of the first round
Todd McShay’s mock draft
McShay had the Seahawks taking Andrew Billings in his last projection. This time he goes with Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss):
“The Seahawks have shown a willingness to take a chance on risk/reward prospects in the past, and Nkemdiche, who comes with plenty of off-field baggage, certainly fits that bill. Even though his tape is inconsistent, he has top-10 talent, and his combine workout confirmed his rare athletic ability. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, Nkemdiche is just the fifth defensive lineman since 2006 to weigh in at 290-plus pounds, run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash and jump at least 35 inches in the vertical.”
This has become a popular pick within the national media — based on the perception that the Seahawks are willing to take a chance on character flags.
How accurate is that perception?
There’s no doubt they’ve rolled the dice a few times — but they were all calculated gambles:
— Seattle drafted Bruce Irvin with the #15 pick despite perceived character issues. Pete Carroll recruited Irvin from the JUCO ranks and had significant information on him going into the draft.
— The Seahawks traded 1st and 3rd round picks to Minnesota for ‘problem child’ Percy Harvin. Again, Carroll had recruited Harvin during his USC days. Darrell Bevell also coached him during his spell as the Vikings offensive coordinator. It was a risk making the deal — but Seattle clearly had enough background on Harvin to feel good about taking the chance.
— Seattle drafted Frank Clark with a late second round pick in 2015. It became a national talking point due to Clark’s dismissal from Michigan after being arrested for domestic violence. Carroll and John Schneider went to great lengths to explain their decision and the study they’d made into the case. Whether you agree with the decision or not — they didn’t walk into that pick with any kind of ignorance.
Harvin flamed out — but Irvin hasn’t had any issues during his pro career and at the combine Carroll praised Clark as “a great kid in the program”.
Aside from the trio above, the Seahawks have taken very few character risks with their picks in the first three rounds:
2010 — Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate
2011 — James Carpenter, John Moffitt
2012 — Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson
2013 — Christine Michael, Jordan Hill
2014 — Paul Richardson, Justin Britt
2015 — Jimmy Graham, Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett
Of the 15 above there are more players with celebrated high character or zero flags than there are risks.
Nkemdiche’s issues are well publicised. Draft Insider Tony Pauline had this to say in a recent podcast:
“Lot of off the field issues that could really push him out of the first round. You look at him physically and you see a guy that should really be a top-15 pick… The fall out of the window is just the tip of the iceberg from what I’m hearing. There are some significant off the field issues and maybe they’ll make their way to the press but it’s definitely going to hurt his draft stock.”
This doesn’t feel like a calculated gamble — it’s a pure risk move. Unlike Clark there doesn’t appear to be one significant incident to research. It’s an entire character profile. If Nkemdiche’s bizarre press conference at the combine was an indicator — it’s hard to imagine he impressed Seattle’s top brass if they met.
I understand why many people want to pair the Seahawks with Nkemdiche. From the outside it would be easy to assume they’re a team intent on taking major risks. The reality is a little bit different and it’d probably be a shock if they drafted Nkemdiche at #26 with the stakes so high.
In round two you maybe start to consider the upside. The thing is, 32 other teams will be having the exact same thought.
The following players were available in McShay’s mock that were off the board in our projection yesterday:
Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis)
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana)
Reggie Ragland (LB, Alabama)
Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
Derrick Henry (RB, Alabama)
Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
Keanu Neal (S, Florida)
Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock draft
Just like Jeremiah’s previous mock, the Seahawks take Alabama defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson:
“Robinson is one the top interior defenders in the draft and he would fit perfectly in Seattle.”
You could easily be forgiven for wondering what all the hype is about with Robinson. He had marginal production in college (3.5 sacks in 2015, 2.5 of which came in one game). Too often he was content to be blocked and hold position. He doesn’t get into the backfield and create splash plays.
The general feeling was Robinson is a unique athlete and his best football is still to come. He certainly carries 307lbs very well — there’s very little bad weight on his 6-3-and-a-half frame and he has 34.5 inch arms.
At the combine however he had a pretty average performance — comparable to guys like Ricky-Jean Francois rather than Marcell Dareus. He ran a 5.20 in the forty (1.79 split), managed only 26 inches in the vertical and an average 8-10 broad jump. Alabama team mate D.J. Pettway had a better three-cone. Jihad Ward’s three cone smashed Robinson’s (7.38 vs 7.80).
Compare that performance to Dareus’ in 2011. He was heavier (319lbs) and ran a 4.93 with a 1.68 split. His broad, vertical and three-cone were similar — but it’s that initial quickness at 319lbs that separates the pair.
Robinson might be little more than a disciplined run-stopper who is tough to move off the spot. And that’s fine — but it’s not often a player with this skill-set and athletic profile is taken early. The Seahawks have looked for freakish traits in round one. Robinson falls short in that sense.
The following players were available in Jeremiah’s mock that were off the board in our projection yesterday:
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana)
Derrick Henry (RB, Alabama)
Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
Keanu Neal (S, Florida)
Germain Ifedi’s athleticism
In our mock draft yesterday I paired the Seahawks with Ifedi at #26. Jeremiah has him going to Carolina at #30 — McShay doesn’t include him in the first round.
Jeremiah talked more about Ifedi here.
“I think he can play tackle. I know that there’s some debate, some belief that he can kick inside and be better at guard. But guys to me he is what you want your tackle to look like. He can bend. To me the awareness is an issue and that’s something he’s going to have to learn and develop but man all of the tools are there for him to maybe even jump up — maybe sneak into the bottom of the first round. He’s right on that edge.”
Charles Davis followed up by mentioning Duane Brown. Jeremiah agreed with the comparison and suggested he’d be a “solid starting right tackle right away”.
Funnily enough Brown was the #26 pick in 2008. He’s a different body type to Ifedi (at the combine he was 6-4, 315lbs and ran quicker but wasn’t as explosive in the vertical jump). Brown also had 33 inch arms not 36 inches. He still had a very good career in Houston as a late first round tackle pick.
If you’re wondering about Ifedi’s athletic upside (and there’s no reason to after a 32.5 inch vertical at 324lbs) — here he is in the mirror drill at the combine going up against future #1 overall pick Laremy Tunsil:
The athletic potential of Germain Ifedi, combined with the size and length he possesses, makes him a very intriguing option for the Seahawks at #26.
The Mock Draftable database says his best comparison physically is Kelechi Osemele — a player that probably costs you $10m APY on the open market.
It’ll be no reach if they do select him in round one. For more on Ifedi, check out this review I put together back in December.