With Brady Quinn expected to sign and Josh Portis already back with the team, I suspect this weakens the likelihood Seattle goes for a quarterback relatively early in the draft (as in rounds 2-4). Of course, if the right player is available, they’ll probably take him. Yet the team has a solid and largely inexpensive trio now. A late rounder or UDFA could be thrown into the mix as further competition. These things are hard to project, but Sean Renfree or Colby Cameron could be options in that range.
A word of advice to the 2013 quarterback class: avoid shirtless glamour photos
Do you know which player was one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history last season? Did you guess Ryan Lindley? If you did, you’d be right. With that in mind, consider this quarterback comparison.
Quarterback A isn’t very good, but he looks like Aaron Rodgers in comparison to quarterbacks B and C. Quarterback B is 2012 Ryan Lindley. Quarterback C is 2012 Brady Quinn- when his outlier performance against Kansas City is excluded (more on that in a minute). The relatively sterling Quarterback A? Curtis Painter.
I think a lot of people have a falsely good image of Brady Quinn based on all the publicity he received for thrashing the Carolina Panthers last season- which happened to be the only game that Carolina lost in their final six contests. In that game Quinn was 19/23 with 8.7 yards per attempt and two touchdowns against zero interceptions. It was no doubt a great performance, especially when you consider how well the Panthers’ defense played down the stretch last season.
But when you look at the sum of his other 2012 performances (Quarterback C above), the obvious conclusion is that Quinn’s week 13 performance is among the greatest single game outliers of all time. I’d compare it to Aaron Curry against Jacksonville in 2009. If you saw that Jacksonville game and knew nothing else, your perception of Curry would be very different. And also very inaccurate.
Truly awful quarterbacks tend to play for truly awful teams, and the Chiefs are certainly that, their laughable 2012 pro-bowl list aside. It stands to reason that Brady Quinn would be more successful here than he was in Cleveland, Denver, or Kansas City. Yet I still can’t get over how bad Quinn was last year. He was one extreme outlier performance away from playing at a Ryan Lindley level, and Ryan Lindley was a rookie in a hopeless situation (on a team that had the NFL’s toughest schedule).
Quinn’s career numbers are right in line with 2011 Curtis Painter. I know he’s not assured a roster spot even if signed, and backups are rarely depended on. But I think I’d rather spend a roster spot on a second kicker than spend one on a second quarterback named Brady Quinn.
The last time that Matt Leinart worked with Pete Carroll, he was hoisting a Heisman trophy in one hand and a national championship trophy in the other. It’s been a precipitous fall from grace since then, and I think it’s more than fair to question Leinart’s desire to play the game at this point. He truly seems to have “checked out” emotionally and mentally some time ago.
He’s also left handed. As a fellow lefty I would normally be a fan, but I only see disadvantages with flipping formations, especially when we have a left guard who always wants to play on the left. And if Seattle wanted to add a read option cabaple quarterback, that’s not Leinart.
Seneca Wallace. Tyler Thigpen. Matt Leinart. Brady Quinn. Those are the quarterbacks the Seahawks brought in for a look-see this past week. Leave no stone unturned, indeed.
As a very young kid living in Spokane, myself and a friend would go out in the countryside during the summer and flip rocks looking for crickets. It was all fun and games until one day my friend flipped over a rock and was oblivious to a black widow less than two inches from his hand. It took him several seconds to notice. A black widow bite to the hand of a 7 year old is bad news. Thankfully, black widows are not as aggressive as people think, and nobody was hurt. That was the last time we ever flipped a rock looking for crickets, though.
It is often believed that there is no harm in looking at bad players. That said, I think the Mariners would probably be better off right now without Jason Bay or Raul Ibanez. They had to clear out a better, younger player in Casper Wells to make room for them. ESPN’s Ed Werder is “reporting” that the workout competition appears to be down to Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart now. What if Josh Portis or an interesting 2013 draft pick is the one who becomes expendable for the likes or those two? I trust our front office- “trust” is an understatement- but they are not immune to questionable roster cuts. Why tempt a mistake? Even if none of those quarterbacks make the final roster, they are still using preseason reps that would be better served with another option, and I have one such option in mind.
Please excuse me for my long winded and meandering preamble. However I felt was necessary to set the table for the first of my preferred offseason moves that remain for the taking. There is an obvious remaining candidate for Seattle’s backup job, and as yet he hasn’t yet been connected to the Seahawks. That player is Tarvaris Jackson. Funny enough. At first it seemed like a crazy idea, but the more I mulled on it the more I realized it was the best move the Seahawks can make to address the backup job outside of the NFL draft.
Jackson had a mixed performance as the Seahawks starter in 2011. He was terrible at the start behind a then miserable offensive line. Then he appeared to turn the corner against the Falcons and Giants. Then he got hurt. Then he struggled with up and down performances. Yet near the end of that season Jackson seemed to be getting healthy and back on track. He had a 93 passer rating over his final five starts as a Seahawk. Now, passer rating isn’t a perfect stat and there is certainly a difference between a “sexy” 93 passer rating and an “ugly” 93 passer rating. It wouldn’t be unfair to put Tarvaris Jackson in that ugly but good category- similar to Alex Smith under Jim Harbaugh.
Still, it was a promising end to the season for Jackson, and the Seahawks “primary model” during the 2012 offseason had Tarvaris Jackson remaining the starter (with competition brought in to push him). Seattle did not plan nor expect to acquire Matt Flynn until his price fell through the floor, and they did not expect third round pick Russell Wilson to be ready to start so quickly. Tarvaris Jackson became the NFL’s best and most expensive 3rd string quarterback. The deal that sent him to Buffalo was in no way an indictment. It saved the team $4 million in cap space which will roll into future cap figures, and it netted the team a draft pick.
Tarvaris Jackson signed back with Buffalo on a one year deal this past February. Contrary to what some people appear to believe, Jackson was never available to Seattle this year as a free agent. Jackson signed with Buffalo because he believed he’d have a real chance to start in 2013. Since then the Bills acquired Kevin Kolb on a pricey two-year contract. It also appears that the Bills are undetered from drafting a franchise quarterback prospect early. Given the large salary difference between Jackson and Kolb and the likely nature of a high draft pick at quarterback, it stands to reason that Jackson is doomed to be a 3rd stringer in Buffalo next season.
Jackson’s cap hit this season is only $1.75 million, which is a very good price for a #2 quarterback. It might be a bit rich for a #3 though, and that could lead to Jackson being cut by the Bills in late August. If Seattle wanted, they could swoop in and sign Jackson then. Obviously, the Seahawks are no stranger to signings in late August and early September. The downside is that Buffalo might not release him at all, and even if they did, Jackson would arrive here without a single preseason rep with the team. That’s hardly ideal for a #2 quarterback. I’d prefer to acquire Jackson before the preseason begins. I’m sure Buffalo would be amenable, especially if it means getting a 2013 draft pick (they only have six of them, and they didn’t receive any compensatory selections). Given the circumstances, I’m sure Buffalo would be all over it if Seattle offered a 7th rounder for Jackson.
It’s funny, because we got a 7th round pick from Buffalo dealing Jackson in the first place. Having lost Buffalo’s 7th in the Harvin trade and gaining two more from compensation picks, Seattle still has a whopping four 7th round picks. No other team has more 7th rounders than Seattle does, and no other roster is tougher for a 7th round pick to make. Is the difference between Matt Leinart / Brady Quinn and Tarvaris Jackson worth one of those 7th rounders? I would say yes. I would say hell yes.
We know what we have in Jackson, he knows our playbook, our offensive coordinator, and all of the team’s leading receivers, including Percy Harvin. We probably won’t win a superbowl with Jackson, but could we go 4-2 with Jackson on this team if Wilson misses six games? I think we could, yes. And don’t forget, Jackson gives us a read option backup. I have to assume he won’t hurt himself on his first keeper during his second go around here. To me, this is a complete no brainer, and while it appears he won’t be a Seahawk this month, I do think he’ll end up a Seahawk again.
Antoine Winfield: the latest victim of NFL ageism
When I first heard about Seattle’s interest in former Vikings corner Antoine Winfield, my initial response was instantly, unthinkingly dismissive. I must confess, I am far from an expert on the NFL outside of my own team. All I saw was an over thirty player at a position where the Seahawks have perpetually attempted to get younger and younger. And with fantastic results in doing so. What sense is there in replacing a 32 year old Marcus Trufant with a soon to be 36 year old Antoine Winfield?
Well after actually looking into Winfield’s track record and situation, I’ve quickly reversed course. He was released last month because 36 year olds that don’t play quarterback almost never make $7.25 million in salary. Winfield is not your average 36 year old though. He’s had 3 pro-bowl seasons and even an all-pro honor, and those seasons occurred during his age 31, 32, and 33 seasons. He did not make the pro-bowl in 2012, but he had one of his best seasons last year at age 35 (more on that in a moment). Obviously, we’re dealing with a late peak player here. Antoine Winfield’s career path is not like most players, so we shouldn’t compare him to the typical mid-thirties player. This always has to be a consideration when dealing with players over 30. You wouldn’t treat a 30 year old London Fletcher the same way you’d treat a 30 year old Lofa Tatupu.
Here’s a highlight video of Winfield. It contains plays throughout his career and lacks anything from the 2012 season, but I still found it informative of his ability.
Yes, this is a highlight video- not a scouting tool- but even from this you can see the physicality, the closing ability, and the tackling ability which are all extremely impressive for any player, especially one well into his 30s.
Winfield may be old, he may be short, and he may be small, but few players can close and finish like he can. In an odd sense Winfield fits what our secondary needs the most- a hyper quick player with the physicality of a big corner. Try to imagine Sherman, Browner, Winfield, and Thurmond in dime formations.
Last year- Winfield’s age 35 season- he had 101 tackles. As a corner. To put that in perspective, rookie sensation Lofa Tatupu had 104 tackles. As a middle linebacker. In Winfield’s fully healthy seasons he’s posted the following tackle numbers: 101, 91, 95, 97, 98, 107, and 80. You’d think a 101 tackle season for a corner would have to be a fluke, but it turns out it’s not. Tackles are a flawed stat and can be a negative indicator for a corner since it implies being targeted more frequently. That said, Pro Football Focus ranked Winfield as the NFL’s #1 run defense corner last year and also noted that he did not allow a touchdown in the passing game all season.
I think it’s telling that Winfield refused a paycut last month. How many soon to be 36 year old defensive backs making $7+ million refuse a pay cut? Obviously, he must still believe he has a lot of good football left. There is a reason why Minnesota is working hard to get him back, and why the Redskins are making a charge as well. It’s not every day you see three playoff teams fighting over a 36 year old corner.
Of course, Seattle could just draft a corner and in doing so get younger while saving a little money. I’m a big fan of Walter Thurmond and adding Winfield would diminish his role on the team. Winfield has some durability concerns as he’s missed significant time in three of his previous six seasons. Seattle doesn’t have a lot of cap room to work with. This is a good year to draft a corner in the mid to late rounds. I get all of that.
But I also think the Seahawks will be a better team with Winfield than without him. This is not your typical mid-thirties free agent we’re talking about here. Winfield would make our defense better. Maybe a lot better.
Edit #1: I just stumbled across the Vikings SBNation reaction to Winfield being released last month, which described the move as “shocking.” It’s not every day you see a fanbase react with shock when a player is released to avoid a $7+ million cap hit during their age 36 season.
Wow.
Wow….it’s still sinking in.
I’ll say it again: wow.
Antoine Winfield has been the anchor of the Vikings‘ secondary for the past nine seasons. He is one of the best tackling cornerbacks in the league. Check that–he’s one of the best tackling cornerbacks in the history of the league. Winfield has been the one consistent force in an otherwise tumultuous stretch of players and quality for Minnesota’s defensive backfield. He had 606 tackles, 21 interceptions, eleven forced fumbles, nine fumble recoveries, five return touchdowns (two fumble returns, two pick sixes, and one blocked field goal return), three Pro Bowls, innumerable big plays, and a partridge in a pear tree over the past nine seasons.
And now he’s gone.
Getting rid of Percy Harvin was one thing. We saw the writing on the wall with our talented malcontent wide receiver. It wasn’t if he would leave the Vikings, it was when. Moving Harvin now while the team could get some solid compensation was understandable.
But Winfield? I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t make sense. He is basically everything you’d ever want in a football player. He’s smart. He’s a leader. He leads by example. And by all accounts, he was even better off the field.
I wonder how Vikings fans will react if Seattle rolls with Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Antoine Winfield next season.
Just accept it now- in our meeting with Seattle this season, we will face not only Percy Harvin, but now Antoine Winfield as well. Did I mention they also have Heath Farwell and Sidney Rice?
Did I mention that the Seahawks have over $3 million dollars more than we do in cap space? Because that’s pretty important, too.
A few green comments in that second article:
Seattle really pisses me off…
and…
Winfield a Seahawk? Disturbing.
In general, it sounds as though Vikings fans desperately want Winfield back, even if he is a soon to be 36 year old nickle corner.
If you’re hoping the Seahawks draft some kind of swing tackle/guard at #56, the above tweet probably concerns you. Supply might not meet demand.
D.J. Fluker looks on tape to be a pure right tackle or guard. There’s very little evidence he’d be comfortable protecting the blind side. He isn’t great working against the speed rush and those issues will almost certainly translate to the next level. He’s a lunger who’s off-balance, pawing against a quicker defensive end who wins with the initial step. He needs to improve his stance, foot speed and kick-slide. The big positive is he’s a road grader type and if he doesn’t work out at tackle, at least you’re going to get an above average guard.
There is something to be said for that. As Tony Pauline notes, “Most of the decision makers in the Dolphins front office were taught under Bill Parcells, who loved road-grading offensive linemen.”
One thing that does work in his favour is insanely long arms. At nearly 37 inches, Fluker has a greater wingspan than any other highly touted offensive lineman in this class. And it isn’t close. Luke Joeckel’s arms measured just over 34 inches. That to me is the main reason why teams are starting to talk themselves into believing he might be able to play left tackle. That kind of reach is attractive. Perhaps some teams will just be happy to draft him early to play right tackle? I’d never draft a right tackle that early, but I’m not a NFL GM. He is a terrific run blocker and dominated Georgia’s defense in the SEC Championship.
If you can live with Fluker’s issues against speed (I couldn’t, personally… not in the top half of round one) then you can probably convince yourself that he’s worth drafting early. I think he’s a similar prospect to Andre Smith, who remains a free agent after being drafted 6th overall in 2009. Smith is only 26 and had his best year as a pro in 2012. And he can’t find a home. Despite Smith’s size and struggles against speed, he played left tackle for Alabama. Fluker didn’t. But he hasn’t run a hideous shirtless forty yard dash, either.
Smith’s inability to generate a free agent market might be down to existing interest in this years tackle class. Three players — Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson — could be gone by as early as the #5 pick. At the latest they’re probably all gone by #7. Considering the need at tackle stretches to San Diego and Miami at #11 and #12, Fluker could benefit as the next man up. It could be that we have to start considering his floor is Carolina at #14.
If the top four tackles go that early, there’s likely to be another rush long before Seattle picks at #56. Kyle Long, Terron Armstead and Menelik Watson could go earlier than people perhaps expect. It doesn’t leave much to get at in the late second round, unless you’re a big fan of Brennan Williams, Xavier Nixon or Jordan Mills.
Not that this is some huge need that needs to be addressed right now. Breno Giacomini starts at right tackle this year regardless. And he could still be re-signed to a modest extension. So there’s no need to panic.
By the way, speaking of Jordan Mills…
Antoine Winfield update
#Vikings DB Antoine Winfield will be en route to Seattle for a visit with #Seahawks today. Vikings making a strong push, mending fences tho
I’m intrigued to see how this situation plays out. Personally, I still wouldn’t be making any big push for Winfield until after the draft. This is a front office that has consistently managed to unearth talent in the secondary without major investment or turning to ageing veterans. Winfield was good in his day, but he’s still a free agent for a reason.
The return of Jon Gruden
It’s that time of year again. Jon Gruden’s QB camp’s are compulsive viewing during the draft process. The likes of Marcus Lattimore, Luke Joeckel and Manti Te’o are also taking part this year (which isn’t unusual, Earl Thomas met with Gruden in 2010). You can see Geno Smith’s grilling above. They’re fun to watch and Gruden is an engaging personality. Although he gets touted for coaching jobs every year, he has a certain flair for broadcasting. It’s no surprise he hasn’t rushed back to the NFL, or college. Although personally I think he would’ve been a great fit for the San Diego Chargers gig this year.
The Seahawks also met with Cullen Jenkins and John Abraham. They signed neither. Winfield’s visit is no guarantee of a deal. It’s likely a meeting was proposed when he was initially cut by the Vikings. “See what your market is and if you want to come for a meeting after that, we’d be happy to entertain you for a meeting.”
It’s worth remembering how much success this team has had drafting young corners (or in Brandon Browner’s case, plucking them out of the CFL). Winfield has a great reputation but there’s a reason he’s still a free agent. The Seahawks might return to this situation after the draft when they can take stock of where they’re at.
Personally, I’d be surprised if this meeting led to a contract unless he was prepared to take a miniature salary to play for a competitor.
Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn to work out for the Seahawks Monday, along w/ Seneca Wallace + Tyler Thigpen: usatoday.com/story/sports/n…
It seems likely one of these guys will be signed, but that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily be the backup. I would expect some form of training camp competition involving one of these four, Josh Portis (re-signed last week) and a rookie (drafted or undrafted). Then it’s a case of who wins the job.
That’ll make the pre-season games slightly more interesting than they otherwise would be.
In terms of possible late round or UDFA quarterback prospects, I still like Sean Renfree (Duke), Colby Cameron (Louisiana Tech) and B.J. Daniels (USF).
Yesterday I posted a piece discussing the possibility of Seattle looking at Quinton Patton. It included quotes that made it seem like he was the second coming of Chad Johnson. And I’m not talking about on the field.
I think the interview above puts things into perspective. He’s sparky on game-day, he likes to talk. But he’s also articulate and not a clown. I can see why the Seahawks would show a lot of interest here. Having watched four Louisiana Tech Games this weekend to focus on Patton, he’s also a little more talented than I initially thought. He has a knack of making one bad play for every three good plays. But there’s something there.
He’s an interesting player and one to keep an eye on for sure. He’s an option if he’s there during day two.
British Olympian Lawrence Okoye impresses at NFL Super Regional Combine on Sunday nfl.com/news/story/0ap…
Being British myself I’ve followed this story closely, but I feel obliged to tap the breaks a little bit too.
Lawrence Okoye competed in the discuss at London 2012 for Team GB. Essentially, British athletics were desperate to put on a strong performance as the home nation. Armed with fistfuls of cash, they spread their net far and wide to find potential Olympic athletes who could win medals for Team GB.
Okoye was a rugby player who fit the criteria and took on the discus. He didn’t do particularly well (in truth, he struggled). So after trying his hand at rugby and discus, he’s now having a go at the NFL.
Gil Brandt’s article suggests he turned down a place at Cambridge University to try for the NFL. This isn’t strictly true. He put on hold the opportunity to read Law at Oxford for the Olmypics. Whether he’s continuing to delay that decision now, I’m not sure. I don’t know how long Oxford waits for you. After the Olympics he did say he was going to stick with the discus and he’s since stated he’ll return to athletics if the football doesn’t work out.
Okoye has the look of a NFL player. However, several other British athletes also looked the part and found themselves to be out of their depth with the Gridiron. For example, if you put Marshawn Lynch on a rugby field he’d be less ‘Beast Mode’ and more ‘what am I supposed to be doing here?’
Physically you can be a match made in heaven, but you just can’t start playing a sport and excel. Okoye has never, ever played American Football. Think about that for a second.
Dwain Chambers was another British Olympian and still competes in the 100m today. He tried out for NFL Europe as a receiver and couldn’t pick it up.
I’m rooting for Okoye, but I fear the hype factor is set to go into overdrive, particularly with the NFL seemingly desperate to branch out internationally. Don’t expect him to be drafted as suggested in the NFL.com article. He’ll have to do it the hard way. We’ll wish him luck in his latest venture.
The Seahawks recently met with Stefan Charles, a defensive tackle who played his college football in Canada for the Regina Rams. Charles was a teammate of Akiem Hicks who was drafted by the Saints in the 2012 draft. Charles was ranked #1 in the Canadian Football League Scouting Bureau’s September rankings for the 2013 CFL Draft (he finished the year at #4).
He moves very well for a big man- his tape almost reminds me of Jason Jones and not just because the jersey numbers are the same. The most remarkable thing about Charles was that he managed a 37″ vertical at 324 pounds, which has to be a record of some kind. There isn’t enough to form a solid opinion on him, but you can get an impression of him by watching the video below:
Charles is a projected mid-rounder. Tip o’ the cap once again to Scott.
I’ve not spent a ton of time studying Patton, but what I did see was generally a bit hit and miss. Yet this tweet seems to suggest a large degree of interest. This doesn’t mean the Seahawks will draft him at #56 if available, they might be really interested but with a third round grade only (for example). Even so, it’s interesting to highlight another prospect who could be a day two target.
Patton’s an interesting character. In this piece by Tyler Dunne (the same guy who wrote the Tweet above), he talked about his admiration for Chad Johnson. The article kind of explains why…
When Rob Likens first met Patton, he thought the receiver took it too far. The Louisiana Tech assistant head coach / wide receivers coach, who is now at California, had the same, mystifying first impression teammates did.
Dude, shut up.
“This guy hadn’t done anything and he’s coming in here, talking and all that,” Likens said. “When I spent every day with him, he’s like that every second he’s awake. He’s just energetic. He’s like that in the lunchroom, he’s like that everywhere.”
Patton’s future roommate felt the same way. Wide receiver Myles White is from Livonia, Mich. Up north, people are more laidback, reserved, he says. White wasn’t used to an unapologetic swagger. Patton was loud, obnoxious. White would often ask, “Why are you yelling for no reason?”
“At first, I said ‘He talks too much,’ ” White said. “After you get to know him, you see it’s his personality. Not just a show.”
I don’t have a problem with cocky, brass players. I’ve interviewed enough people from a multitude of sports to appreciate a guy who loves the sound of his own voice. As long as it never drifts into a negative on-field product, then it’s fine. Sport is better when there are characters playing and starring. Essentially, there’s supreme confidence and being a diva. There’s a fine line between the two sometimes.
The Seahawks aren’t averse to players having an outspoken personality (see: Richard Sherman). They’re not looking for robots or choir boys. That’s a positive thing. Too often under Tim Ruskell this franchise shut out talented players because they didn’t fit a strict criteria. If Carroll and Schneider feel Patton has a certain star quality to him, on and off the field, he could be landing in Seattle on day two. If, of course, he doesn’t leave the board earlier than most people expect. He has been touted by some as a possible first rounder.
Drafting a receiver early can’t be ruled out. Green Bay regularly stocked up their pack of wide-outs during Schneider’s time in Wisconsin. They didn’t shy away from drafting Jordy Nelson in round two despite having a deep crew of receivers. They went back into round two for Randall Cobb. They anticipated a day when Greg Jennings and Donald Driver wouldn’t be on the roster and planned accordingly. I don’t think you can ever have enough good wide-outs anyway.
Seattle should anticipate a future without Sidney Rice’s mega contract or prospective free-agent Golden Tate. Sacrifices will need to be made down the line. Despite what most people will tell you, receiver is a vital position in this league. Adding a potential star in this years draft gives you some security for the future, but it also doesn’t put pressure on the rookie to start in 2013. Patton could easily be red-shirted as he learns the finer points of the play book.
I need to watch some more tape on this guy. I’ve added four games below if you want to do the same.
I’ve got a lot of time for Davis Hsu and his take on the Seahawks. I’m guessing most of you share that opinion. This was an interesting shout, bringing attention to a name we haven’t discussed yet.
With Gholston’s height, reach and ample size, he’s someone to keep an eye on. He carries 281lbs well and could even add another 10-15 to feature inside. The Seahawks have looked for length at defensive tackle, and length is Gholston’s best asset. He ran a 4.93 at the combine but shaved it down to a 4.8 at the Michigan State pro-day.
I do think he’s the kind of project Seattle could take on. He came into the college season as a possible top-50 selection, but ended up a major let down. I watched him against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska and he failed to generate a single sack. It’s not all about stats, but in general he was a non-factor. After looking like an unrefined physical talent in 2011, he simply dropped off the radar this year. It was a little bit surprising he turned pro in the end. He was given a grade in the round 3-4 range by the draft committee.
He relies far to much on power and the bull rush to beat his man off the edge. It’s so predictable. Gholston’s incapable of mixing it up. He’s not got the foot speed or the hand use. He won’t think three snaps ahead to set up a blocker. There’s no repertoire. He’s basically a one-trick pony off the edge.
Any team looking to draft him as a power end will be distinctly unimpressed with the 2012 tape. In fact, I’d argue he’d be lucky to find a home in round four. Aside from rank average tape, he’s guilty by association. Gholston. As in, cousin of Vernon. To look at him, Vernon Gholston was a monster. And he played like a pussy cat.
You can’t help but think of the titanic bust from 2008 when watching his namesake at MSU. It’s incredible that at just 26, Vernon’s career is over. At one stage last season I wondered if William’s would ever get to age 26. His tape, particularly against the run, was just so lethargic. Underwhelming. Underachieving. He flirted with brilliance, but never quite got there. When you watch him getting driven back by a tight end you start to worry.
Yet the Seahawks dare to go where others won’t. A 6-6, 281lbs lineman to Seattle may scream ‘potential’. He’s not a big personality or character. He’s going to need some pushing around and cajoling. But get him up to 290-295lbs and he might be a capable defensive tackle in this unique 4-3 under-with-a-twist scheme.
Whether or not they’d take him at #56 I’m not sure. Mike Mayock ranks him as the #4 3-4 end available in the draft. In other places I’ve seen him with a grade between rounds 3-5. I suspect if they were going to take a chance, they’d want to wait a little bit. I’m thinking in that round 4-5 range. He’s one to keep an eye on though. There aren’t many tall, long defensive tackles in this class. Guys like Gholston will be all the more intriguing as convert prospects.
@robstatoncan you give 5 to tens names I should be considering @ 56
1. Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
2. Terron Armstead (T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff)
3. Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
4. Matt Scott (QB, Arizona)
5. Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
6. Jordan Mills (T, Louisiana Tech)
7. Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
8. Travis Kelce (TE, Cincinnati)
9. John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
10. Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
I could’ve included others, but tried to keep names in the list who might have a chance of making it to #56. The likes of Sylvester Williams, Menelik Watson, Robert Woods, Kyle Long, Gavin Escobar and Margus Hunt (for example) were assumed to be off the board. I didn’t include a single defensive tackle because unfortunately, I’m not convinced there are any players that fit what Seattle is looking for (length, size) in the round two range. I think this is a need they will try to address later on.
I wanted to put Steadman Bailey on the list. And Ryan Swope. But ‘short receiver’ probably isn’t a priority right now. If you want to know why Matt Scott is on the list, scroll down to the bottom of this piece.
Really I could put thirty names on this list and they’d still draft that player who was kind of obvious in hindsight but nobody thought about at the time…
Mayock is plugged-in around NFL, so have to wonder if movement in his rankings reflects what he’s heard from league execs.
Earlier I referred to Mayock’s rankings. As noted in the tweet above, Mayock is connected. It doesn’t mean he’ll get everything right, but he doesn’t do any mock drafts to be officially proven wrong either. He’s moved Eric Fisher above Luke Joeckel this week. Could that represent an indication that Kansas City might be leaning more towards Fisher at #1?
If Joeckel doesn’t go first overall, should we expect a mad scramble for the #2 pick (currently owned by Jacksonville) as teams like Arizona, Detroit, San Diego and Miami contemplate the opportunity to lock down their left tackle position for the next decade?
I’ve no doubt the Jaguars would love to move down. Perhaps more than once. I suspect their game plan will be to rebuild a terrible defense, add a big running back to partner Maurice Jones-Drew and just become tougher across the board. That’s how the Seahawks started under Carroll. That’s how the Jaguars should start under Caldwell/Bradley.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Joeckel and Fisher ended up going #1 and #2, whichever teams they end up with. Geno Smith should follow shortly after. Then it’s a crap shoot. Which is why a guy like Tavon Austin could suddenly find himself within the top-ten. Not impressed with anyone in particular? Draft the chess piece who ran a 4.2. Would anyone be surprised?
@robstaton my opinion is 3rd/4th but some i trust tell me late 2nd is a possibility..i think thats a bit early but that opinion is out there
One final note… Tony Pauline is reporting that Matt Scott had a terrific work out with the Seahawks today. Apparently Scott completed, “all but two of the 65 passes he was asked to throw.” He also finished the session with a 65-yard downfield bomb. That’s why he’s on the list above for options at #56. As you can see from the tweet, Pauline believes the late second is a possibility.
Terron Armstead made headlines at the combine by running a 4.65 at 6-5 and 306lbs (it was later changed to an official 4.71, see above). I remember at the time wondering if Seattle would pull a reverse-Sweezy. Maybe they consider it? He’s got the length and the size they look for at defensive tackle. That’s some explosive speed for a big guy. Dion Jordan ran a 4.60 at 248lbs. Think about that comparison.
It’s fun to think about that kind of switch, yet in reality it’s unlikely. One of the reasons I suspect Seattle and Cable started to look at defensive converts is the extreme difference that’s started to emerge between offensive and defensive lineman. The best athletes in college play defense these days. As time goes on, it’s going to get harder and harder to find orthodox lineman apart from the usual stud left tackles. Once again the Seahawks are ahead of the curve in looking for defensive players who can switch. The league will catch on, especially if J.R. Sweezy develops into a permanent starter. We’d start to see more and more of this, because it could be the only way to match up physically in the trenches.
Moving from offense to defense — the reverse-Sweezy — seems unlikely. There’s already enough great athletes playing defense. Armstead is rare in that he actually has the tools to play offensive line in the modern NFL. Keep him where he is.
It’s been quite a journey for the former High School shot-putter. He started the draft process as an unknown from Arkansas Pine-Bluff, impressed at the Shrine game, made a last minute arrival at the Senior Bowl and left Indianapolis as a major talking point. No doubt many teams were scrambling to get hold of game tape after his performance at the combine.
As an athletic specimen, he’s the type Seattle probably salivates over. That’s why you can’t rule him out if he’s there at #56. As we’ve discussed before, the Seahawks can’t pay every offensive player top dollar. While Breno Giacomini performed very well for the most part last year, the right tackle position is sufficiently unimportant (context) that you don’t need to pay your starter $4.25m (Giacomini’s salary this year). It’s the kind of sacrifice you’ll need to make to keep guys like Russell Wilson, Percy Harvin, Russell Okung and Marshawn Lynch (etc) on the roster.
Armstead, if drafted at #56, would cost $644k as a rookie and a maximum of $1.2m by year four. That’s a huge saving for a position of limited importance (again, in context). Red-shirting him for a year behind Giacomini limits the need to throw him in at the deep end/ He could be spelled just like Sweezy and John Moffitt last year. It also allows Tom Cable to work with him and develop him into a more rounded pro.
I suppose you could argue that if the position is of secondary importance, why spend a second round pick? It’d be a fair point. Yet this is a team that has shown a tendency to chance their arm on upside. Armstead certainly has a lot of athletic potential and if they want to take a chance on a guy like this, they’re unlikely to find an alternative beyond day two. He has decent arm length (34 inches, the same as Menelik Watson, 1/4 of an inch shorter than Luke Joeckel). He’s definitely an intriguing player.
One of the reasons I argued heavily against taking Gabe Carimi in 2011 was because he’s a pure right tackle. I would never ever draft a player in round one who’s tagged as a pure right tackle. It usually means, like Carimi, they’re poor against the speed rush and play best in the run game. The NFL has changed and a lot of teams use dual rushers off the edge. Elite rushers like Mario Williams, Clay Matthews and J.J. Watt roam around, stunting and playing both edges. If you’re drafting a tackle in round one or two these days, I think the least you should expect is they can handle speed. A lot of these ‘pure’ right tackles can’t.
D.J. Fluker is another example. Watch Alabama tape and he has some struggles against speed. Yes he’s a powerful drive blocker for the run. I suspect, like James Carpenter, he’ll end up at guard because he’ll struggle when taking on the game’s best pass rushers. The one thing in Fluker’s locker is long arms — well over 36 inches to be exact. That’s some serious length.
Armstead has the quicks. It wouldn’t be misplaced confidence to believe he can cope well against a speed rush. I don’t take a great deal out of small school tape (see below) because the competition is so comparatively weak. Yet he did enough to keep me interested. And given Seattle has one of the best offensive line coaches in the league — I’d love to see what he could do with this guy. He’s a solid option at #56. Maybe even the type of player Seattle thrives on progressing.
No trades in the mock this week (just to mix things up a bit). As noted yesterday, I think we’ll see a ton of first round deals on April 25th so take this with a grain of salt (you possibly already do). I’ve tried to think outside of the box and make a few surprise choices.
It’s been revealed the following players will be attending the draft in New York: Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel, Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Cooper, Sharrif Floyd, Lane Johnson, Ziggy Ansah, Kenny Vaccaro, D.J. Fluker, Eric Fisher, Menelik Watson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, Xavier Rhodes, Margus Hunt, Barkevious Mingo and Dee Milliner. Dion Jordan is still considering his invite.
I remain perplexed, confused and intrigued by what Seattle is going to do at #56. It seems like nothing is off the table. In fact, looking at the options available for round three, it wouldn’t surprise me if they traded out of the second round. In the end I went with a big defensive tackle who’s one of those players who could easily go in round one or round three. John Jenkins is massive. He’s also pretty agile for his size. However, his tape is inconsistent and the big question is will that inconsistency improve in a situation where you can better manage his snaps? Seattle appears to want size at tackle. Big early, tough to run against, then unleash the hounds. That seems to be the aim here. Jenkins would fit into that.
Whether a guy at 6-4 and around 340 is the answer, I’m not sure. They seem to prefer length and decent size, instead of those enormous nose tackle types. Alan Branch, Tony McDaniel — both big tackles, but not 340lbs. I was tempted to go for Kyle Long as a player capable of playing both guard and tackle.
I also want to remind everyone that you can now purchase Seattle’s new ‘draft cap’ through Seahawks Draft Blog by clicking the image below. Help the blog and support the Seahawks during ‘draft month’.
First round
#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
Still seems the most likely pick.
#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple.
#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
This will be a long rebuild.
#4 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
I just have a hunch someone will fall in love with Austin enough to make him a higher pick than we expect.
#5 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Fills a need at left tackle. Could be Dee Milliner here.
#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season.
#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade.
#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb.
#9 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
He could line up in multiple looks for Rex Ryan.
#10 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
He’s been cleared medically.
#11 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
Again, another hunch. Brown could go earlier than we think.
#12 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
With the top tackles off the board, why not take Warmack?
#13 Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
One way or another, I think the Buccs end up with Darrelle Revis.
#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Flat out steal if it happens.
#15 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
Athletic potential could = top 15.
#16 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Tremendous player, who could feature at guard or center.
#17 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
A good fit for both parties.
#18 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
They just signed Tony Romo to a mega deal. Giving him Dez Bryant and Cordarrelle Patterson to throw to would be fun.
#19 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He could fall further than this.
#20 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Fills a need. Athletic potential could make this a steal. Character concerns linger.
#21 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
I’m not a fan personally, but then I was never really a fan of Andre Smith either.
#22 Robert Woods (WR, USC)
If they’re looking for a weapon on offense, Woods could be in play.
#23 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
He’s good but is he special enough to go earlier?
#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse)
A huge need for the Colts.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back to the Notre Dame well?
#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings is in Minnesota. They could go for a pass catcher here.
#27 Keenan Allen (WR, Houston)
Receiver looks like a strong option here.
#28 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
He did well enough at the combine to warrant a place in round one.
#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State)
Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe.
#30 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State)
He hopes to work out on April 20th.
#31 Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
Safety is a key need for the Niners.
#32 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
The Ravens often look for value, rather than simply filling needs.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Matt Scott (QB, Arizona)
#40 Tennessee – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#41 Buffalo – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#42 Miami – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#43 Tampa Bay – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#44 Carolina – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#45 San Diego – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#46 St. Louis – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#47 Dallas – Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
#48 Pittsburgh – Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
#49 New York Giants – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#50 Chicago – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#51 Washington – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#52 Minnesota – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#53 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#55 Green Bay – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#56 Seattle – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#57 Houston – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#58 Denver – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#59 New England – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#60 Atlanta – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#61 San Francisco – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#62 Baltimore – Jamie Collins (LB, Southern Miss)
Matt Scott is low-key and all business. No wonder his Mark Wahlberg impression is spot on.
This year’s quarterback group is almost the perfect opposite of last year’s. Last year’s was extremely strong at the top, weak in the middle, and very strong at the end (Wilson was a projected 4th or 5th rounder going into the draft). One of my favorite quarterbacks that year, Chandler Harnish, ended up Mr. Irrelevant. This year’s is (falsely considered) weak at the top, extremely strong in the middle, and very weak at the end- though there are many interesting UDFA-type options this year.
We don’t have to worry about Geno Smith and Matt Barkley, both will be gone in the first round.
The second tier is crowded. EJ Manuel could sneak into round one but for now I have him as a 2nd rounder. Ryan Nassib, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and most recently Matt Scott have all entered the discussion as quarterbacks that might be drafted somewhere in the 2nd round. Keep in mind too that this is in a draft with as many as 60 players with second round grades. It’s going to be a historically crowded 2nd round this year. The bulk of this mid-round class could push some of those names into rounds 3 and 4, just as Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, and Nick Foles helped Kirk Cousins last until the 4th last year.
I think the 4th round is probably the earliest that Seattle would target a quarterback. You might remember that Seattle wanted to target a quarterback in the round 4-6 range last year even after signing Matt Flynn. Ultimately they ended up taking Russell Wilson in the 3rd thanks to a colossal man-crush from John Schneider, but they had originally hoped to take Wilson later- it was only until they began hearing that other teams wanted Wilson in the 3rd that priorities shifted.
All five of the second tier quarterbacks are unlikely to reach the late 4th. However, there is a decent chance that at least one of them might, so it’s worth doing a bit of legwork to figure out which one we should hope for.
EJ Manuel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYRCkpnnlIs
EJ Manuel is the most physically gifted quarterback in the 2013 draft, but he’s also a mechanical quarterback. Ask him to make a play on the fly, and he will make mistakes. Put him in a controlled environment that taxes his mind lightly, and he could put up great numbers even if the eyeball test tells you something different. He’s a very similar kind of player to Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Jake Locker, Vince Young, Charlie Whitehurst or Tarvaris Jackson. While Colin Kaepernick is all the rage, credit for his success is misplaced. Kaepernick is truly a talent, but were he not playing for a simplified offense created by a brilliant coach, I think he’d be a lot more like Tim Tebow with a prettier pass than what he’s become today.
Seattle’s interest in Kaepernick during the 2011 draft, as well as their acquisitions of Whitehurst and T-jack all point to the Seahawks being okay with the mechanical quarterback approach.
That said, I’d be pretty surprised if Manuel reached our pick, and there is a snowball’s chance in hell that he slips to the 4th round. I think he’s very likely to be the third quarterback off the board- he might even be the second.
Ryan Nassib
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBH2peKn64E
As Matt Waldman put it so wonderfully, Ryan Nassib is the “color inside the lines favorite.” He meets the minimum conventional criteria in every category, and on tape he looks like a traditional NFL style quarterback. Nassib’s USC compilation shows a quarterback that struggles under pressure, though on the whole there is much to like about him. He makes quick decisions, can check through reads (quickly too), has a quick release and even has some rushing ability. He seems like a great fit for Seattle’s point guard at quarterback philosophy.
That said, Ryan Nassib is expected to last no later than Buffalo’s 2nd round pick. Buffalo hired Nassib’s college coach this offseason, and it’s possible that Buffalo might move into the late 1st to secure him.
Mike Glennon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPipSLtM-GE
Mike Glennon was one of the main driving forces behind Russell Wilson’s early departure from NC State, so it would be ironic to say the least if he became Russell Wilson’s long term backup in Seattle.
It’s tempting to compare his game to Brock Osweiler. Both are 6’7″ and throw the ball with velocity, yet both are prone to bouts of inaccuracy and terrible decision making. Watching Glennon, he just seems like the kind of quarterback the Arizona Cardinals would go for: he’s tall, stiff, lacking intangibles, and overvalued. He’s very nearly the perfect opposite of his NC State predecessor.
I was a fan of Glennon’s for a time because he reminded me of Joe Flacco, but the more I watch the more problems I find. I don’t expect him to be high on Seattle’s shopping list, as Seattle is looking for “tilt the field” guys and Glennon sorely lacks for intangibles.
Tyler Wilson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDt6saeTxHM
Once upon a time, Matt Barkley and Tyler Wilson were widely expected to be the first two quarterbacks off the board in the 2013 draft. That was during an olden time when NFL teams weren’t obsessing over the read option or the “new breed” of quarterback.
Wilson did not clock a blistering 40 time, but he’s still very much a point guard at quarterback. He checks through reads with ease, spreads the football around, and when it’s given to him, he’ll run for ten easy yards.
I’m curious to see how the Seahawks will react to Tyler Wilson’s hand measurement. John Schneider likes his quarterbacks to have big hands, and Wilson’s hands measured in at just 8¾”, which will remove him from many draft boards as several teams consider 9″ to be a cutoff point. I personally don’t take issue, as Wilson didn’t show problems associated with small hands on tape (he wasn’t fumble prone and typically threw tight spirals, though I did notice he rarely attempted pump fakes).
If Wilson reaches Seattle’s late 4th rounder, I would be mildly surprised if they passed. It’s not very often you get a quarterback of Wilson’s caliber in the late 4th round. Wilson is a “big name” too; his path towards building future trade value is a paved one.
Matt Scott
Matt Scott is probably my favorite quarterback this year. Not because he’s the best- far from it. No, what I love about Matt Scott is what he wasn’t allowed to be and what he could become.
If I really wanted to sell you on him, I could have chosen a better video than the one above. His compilation against Stanford is probably his best. Against Nevada, he must have made close to a dozen poor throws, and he was featured less as a runner than he had been earlier in the season. He also threw a couple ugly picks.
Yet this flawed bowl game compilation also proves that even a struggling Matt Scott can still lead his team to 49 total points, including two incredibly heroic drives at the end of the game. Even when he’s off his game he can be dangerous.
Matt Scott is easily the most agile quarterback in this draft. His times in the 3-cone and short shuttle blew the competition away at the combine. There were times earlier in the season where that quickness was on full display as he evaded pass rushers and extended plays while keeping his eyes downfield, using his mobility in a Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers sense.
Unfortunately, Rich-rod’s offense at Arizona highly emphasized getting the ball out in under two seconds which doesn’t really jive with Matt Scott’s play extending ability. I think in an offense like ours he could thrive since Seattle uses developing routes instead of quick passes. No NFL quarterback held the ball longer on average than Russell Wilson last season.
While Matt Scott needs to work on the mental part of his game (my big worry is that he might have an improvisational ceiling along the lines of Seneca Wallace or Tarvaris Jackson), it would be hasty to judge at this point. Scott’s elite quickness and rifle arm will allow him to succeed perhaps more than he should based on his mental makeup, similar to Colin Kaepernick. And unlike Kaepernick, Matt Scott doesn’t stare at his first read for four seconds before moving to his second. He’s actually quite developed at making reads despite having just one year of starting experience.
The obvious appeal of Matt Scott to Seattle is his potential for future trade value. If he thrives in Seattle’s offense, potential buyers are going to see a quarterback that is highly productive, highly mobile, and can sling the football. If he pans out, you won’t be looking at two future fifth round picks when he’s dealt.
Scott needs to go to a place that can take the time to tune up his game, away from the pure read-option and more towards a point guard at quarterback skillset. Seattle is the perfect landing spot for him, though if the Seahawks really do want Matt Scott, the odds of landing him at the end of round 4 are slim.
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I’ll cover the late round options in a separate post tomorrow. Many of the names mentioned in the comments the last few weeks will get some love. Look forward to it!
