The new horizontal board is publishing today — firstly though, some video thoughts on the latest from the Seahawks’ Head Coaching search…

With the Lions winning in the divisional round at the weekend, I’ve started to see people highlighting the work of Dan Campbell. Undoubtedly, he’s done a great job. Many people on social media are now calling for the Seahawks to appoint someone who can provide his level of leadership and expertise.

I think there’s a significant chunk of context to add here.

When Campbell was initially appointed in 2021, he hired Anthony Lynn as his offensive coordinator. He took over an offense that had Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Swift, Josh Reynolds and T.J. Hockenson. Four fifths of their current starting offensive line, including first rounders Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell were on the team too.

The Lions started that season 0-8-1 before Lynn was removed from playcalling duties, with the offense struggling badly. The Lions finished the season 3-5.

Under Lynn, they averaged 16.6 points per game. When he was removed, they averaged 21.8. Despite the uptick in production, they finished the season with the 29th ranked offense per DVOA.

Johnson was promoted to the coordinator role for the 2022 season. The Lions improved to 9-8 that year, they scored 26.6 points per game and the offense ranked 7th per DVOA. They were dependant on the offense, because the defense ranked 27th.

This season, the Lions are in the NFC Championship game with an overall record of 14-5. They’re scoring 27.1 points per game and the offense ranks fifth per DVOA (the defense ranked 13th).

The point is, Campbell with Lynn as offensive coordinator was a winless Head Coach with a struggling offense. Since promoting Johnson, the Lions have been an offensive-reliant team that has improved its output and performance consistently. They’ve gone from being so bad they earn the #2 pick in the draft to being within a game of the Super Bowl.

What’s the bigger factor here? Campbell’s leadership or Johnson’s appointment as offensive coordinator?

I’m not trying to undermine Campbell who is clearly a person players want to play for. Meshing with Johnson’s tactical quality, they make a great pair. However, in the hierarchy of importance, without Johnson calling plays, Campbell’s Lions were winless. Look at the difference — 0-8-1 with Lynn, 26-18 after. 29th ranked offense before, top-seven ever since.

Another quick point to make regarding the importance of experience, leadership and staff-building, which I fear is going to take great prominence in the discussion this week. I want to highlight this article again from 2017. It’s Gregg Rosenthal’s coaching hire rankings from that year. He had Anthony Lynn ranked first, when he was appointed the Chargers’ coach. Sean McVay was second, Kyle Shanahan was fourth.

Here’s what Rosenthal said of Lynn:

This ranking is not just about Lynn, but the staff that he quickly built. Lynn chose to keep offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, reportedly at the prodding of Chargers management. Lynn also convinced former Seahawks defensive coordinator and Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley to run his defense.

Lynn’s inexperience running a team — he’s never been a head coach at any level, though he did serve as the interim head coach in Buffalo after Rex Ryan’s firing heading into Week 17 — will be mitigated by the presence of two former head coaches (Whisenhunt and Bradley) on his staff. Those hires show a self-confidence and lack of ego that will serve him well.

Lynn won the job in large part because he was a “natural-born leader,” according to Chargers president John Spanos. It’s easy to see why players swear by him after listening to Lynn address the media. He carries himself like someone who will be doing this a long time.

He’s a leader, he’s built a great staff, he speaks with authority, he has no ego. All admirable qualities I can imagine people in Seattle saying to justify the appointment of someone like Dan Quinn.

Lynn lasted four years with the Chargers and was fired after going 33-30.

Here’s what was said about McVay:

McVay, 30, is a far bigger question mark. He’s the rare offensive ingenue who is prized for his acumen and known for communicating well with his players. But how much credit do coach Jay Gruden and Washington’s deep receiver group get for the well-constructed Redskins offense?

Clearly, with hindsight, we can see that a lot of what Washington did was down to McVay and very little to do with Gruden. It shouldn’t have been viewed as risky, more inspired.

Vance Joseph’s hire in Denver came in third, with Rosenthal noting: “Elway cited Joseph’s “great vision” and his leadership skills.” Those leadership skills again produced an 11-21 record and a firing after two-years. Here’s Shanahan’s blurb, in lowly fourth place:

There are red flags, however. Shanahan’s previous stop in Cleveland ended bumpily, with Shanahan asking to leave after one season under contentious circumstances.

The delay in Shanahan’s hiring will hurt him greatly in terms of putting together a staff. Chip Kelly was sunk in San Francisco partly because he was stuck with a lousy defensive roster and couldn’t find a high-quality coordinator to save it. Shanahan is the captain in gym class stuck with the last pick. Getting quality coaches to San Francisco, where he will be the fourth head coach in as many years, won’t be easy. Nothing about Shanahan’s job will be.

So there was the risk of the unknown for McVay, the risk of an abrupt departure in Cleveland of all places for Shanahan, paired with an inability to put together a highly regarded staff. They were both ranked below Lynn with Shanahan also below Joseph. They’ve since gone on to dominate the NFC West since 2017, have both appeared in multiple Super Bowls and NFC Championship games and McVay has a ring.

It feels like there’s a lesson to be learnt here. Maybe, just maybe, leadership and being the guy who can stand up in a room and deliver a great speech isn’t as important in the modern NFL as having some of those qualities but, more importantly, also having the tactical acumen offensively to outmanoeuvre opponents?

Campbell’s experience in Detroit only took off when he got the right offensive coordinator. What happens when he loses Ben Johnson? Does he end up being Dan Quinn in Atlanta minus Kyle Shanahan? This is the issue John Schneider talked about last week. You can eliminate this problem by hiring a great offensive play-caller to run your team and finding the tough-guy leadership elsewhere, such as your coordinators or assistants.

Check out my guest appearance on the HawksZone Rundown this week:

Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Seahawks have arranged second interviews with Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn. These will all be in person next week.

On the surface it’s an underwhelming group but there are a few things that need to be pointed out.

Firstly, Pelissero adds, “There likely will be others too. A thorough process.” Thus, this doesn’t appear to be the final short-list. Relax, breathe. Of the initial batch, only Frank Smith is absent of the names they originally spoke to.

They reportedly only initially interviewed Bobby Slowik today, so it’s plausible they simply haven’t had an opportunity yet to digest that conversation and arrange a second interview. Ben Johnson, who they spoke to yesterday, is still coaching in the playoffs. He wouldn’t even be available to fly to Seattle this week with the Lions preparing for the NFC Championship game. They’d have to wait until the week after next to meet with him in person, regardless of the result between San Francisco and Detroit.

The Seahawks don’t need to announce any planned interview with Mike Vrabel. As a free agent, he can come to Seattle at any point. They’re reportedly interested in a meeting, even though no date has been revealed.

It’s possible to potentially rule out one candidate. It’s never been reported that Mike Macdonald was sent an interview request. This is telling. Sunday was the deadline to interview candidates virtually, enabling teams to setup second interviews during Super Bowl bye week if the coach was still involved in the playoffs.

This means should the Ravens win next weekend, the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to talk to MacDonald until after the Super Bowl. Surely if he was in contention, they would’ve setup an initial virtual interview before today’s deadline, allowing them to meet with him in two weeks time?

Here’s my take on Macdonald. It’s gone very quiet with him and potential NFL vacancies. Has it become known to teams that he’s being lined up to replace Jim Harbaugh at Michigan? He was the defensive coordinator there in 2021. The Wolverines are going to need a coach if/when Harbaugh bolts for the NFL.

His name hasn’t been connected to any NFL teams for a while now. Do they know something? Or, perhaps he has removed his name from contention for another reason? Either he doesn’t feel ready, or maybe the Ravens are setting up a plan for him to replace John Harbaugh one day? After all, there was a succession plan for GM Eric DeCosta to replace Ozzie Newsome.

Either way, it doesn’t look like Macdonald is bound for Seattle, even for an interview let alone to replace Pete Carroll. Instead it seems like the next Head Coach will come from the list of Evero, Graham, Kafka, Morris, Quinn, Johnson, Slowik or Vrabel.

Personally, my vote would be to still go all-out to lure Johnson to Seattle — even with all the talk connecting him to the Washington Commanders. Always compete, right? They have to try and pull out all the stops. The only problem is, how long can you wait? Teams are starting to make hires now and they get the advantage in terms of being able to go and recruit staff. The longer you wait, the more likely you are to miss out on staff hires. A case in point, by making the Super Bowl last season, the Eagles lost both coordinators late in the process. Many of their favoured replacements, such as Vic Fangio, had gone elsewhere. They had to settle, with disastrous consequences. If they think Johnson is set for the Commanders, you can’t wait around just to miss out. None of the other candidates are still involved in the playoffs and can be hired at any point.

Johnson has a track record of driving major production out of Detroit’s skill players. The Seahawks, rightly or wrongly, have invested in receivers and running backs, plus a pass-blocking left tackle. The success Johnson is having in Detroit is transferable based on personnel. Plus, the Lions’ two starting guards are both free agents and could be signed to bolster the O-line.

Yesterday’s performance by Houston in Baltimore doesn’t change my thinking about Slowik as an alternative. Did people really expect anything else? Baltimore — a heavy home favourite, the best team in the NFL, with the MVP at quarterback, comfortably handling an upstart, young, overachieving team with a rookie QB and first-time Head Coach? This isn’t exactly Dan Quinn and the Cowboys laying an egg against the Packers.

Despite the great pitch from Les Snead for Raheem Morris (perhaps partly inspired by the fact the Rams will get draft compensation if he departs) I’m not sold on what he’d bring to Seattle. He’s clearly charismatic and well liked but he led the 22nd ranked defense this year (per DVOA) despite having Aaron Donald. Rams fans are hardly singing his praises as a coordinator.

Kafka, Evero and Graham would be head-scratchers for Schneider’s career-defining move. Quinn still feels dangerously plausible given how often it’s been touted that he was lined up to one day replace Carroll. To me that would be such an underwhelming hire. It’d remind me of this article posted on NFL.com in 2017 ranking the coaching hires. Anthony Lynn was ranked first, ahead of Sean McVay (#2) and Kyle Shanahan (#4) because of his prior experience, staff building and leadership. Meanwhile, McVay and Shanahan were labelled risky. This is all sounds very familiar.

I can’t shake Quinn’s spell in Atlanta, where he was 24-29 without Shanahan, was fired after an 0-5 start to the 2020 season and was regularly criticised for blowing big leads and not holding players accountable for consistently poor play. His success as a coach feels tied to three things — the LOB, Shanahan and Micah Parsons. I don’t see him usurping Shanahan or McVay and, as we’ve seen in the last week, Shanahan seems to thrive on seeing his old boss beaten.

Vrabel wouldn’t feel as underwhelming as Quinn. His time in Tennessee arguably ended due to mitigating circumstances. When your GM trades away A.J. Brown, gets fired for it, then the interim GM looks after the next draft, but doesn’t get the job full-time, then another guy takes over, plus Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry just get old — none of this is conducive with success. I think Vrabel could be interesting — and it’d be different, which is a good thing — but so much would depend on who’s calling plays offensively. He seems to have a good reputation among those in the league.

I wonder if there’s an ulterior motive to some of the announced list of second interviews. We’ve talked about this before. Evero, Graham, Kafka. Is it possible that, while taking those candidacies seriously, the Seahawks are conscious that all three could be available as potential coordinators and/or assistant Head Coaches? You bring them in, create a connection, sell the franchise. The Panthers and Raiders may allow their defensive coordinators to depart as they transition to new regimes, while the Giants have become so toxic, it might be difficult for them to reject a request from Kafka to move on.

If nothing else, it’s an interesting thought. Pairing either of Evero or Graham with a younger offensive mind at Head Coach would be a coup, if it’s at all possible. Asking Kafka to bring an Andy Reid-style offense to Seattle to go with a Vrabel type would also have some appeal. I get the sense Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback, either this year or next, and having someone on staff with experience of developing a QB will be vital.

Nevertheless, many Seahawks fans will be hoping the team expands the reported list quickly. It’s not exactly a group that screams ‘brave new exciting era’.

This is a guest post written by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks have set themselves up for another very intriguing offseason.  They’ve already made the biggest decision a team can make – saying goodbye to the one person responsible for the roster, coaching staff and the gameday implementation of both.

There are several other critical decisions to be made.  As most of us are aware, the Seahawks currently do not have any salary cap room to spend in 2024 at this moment in time.  While they have plenty of ‘movable’ money in the form of non-guaranteed salary and roster bonuses that can be eliminated or otherwise adjusted, some difficult decisions will need to be made — and soon.

We will be tracking and providing analysis of the overall roster and salary cap to keep everyone aware of the options available to the team, as well as the costs and benefits.

Perhaps the biggest piece of that roster (and likely the first roster choice they will have to consider – more on that below) is deciding on Geno Smith.

When a Head Coach is no longer with the team and the starting quarterback is not an entrenched franchise-level player locked into an immovable long-term contract, there will always be questions about his future with the team.  Fair or not, NFL teams’ success begins with that position.

In the case of the Seahawks though, we have an extra layer of intrigue.  Pete Carroll, in his season-ending press conference gave an extremely strong endorsement of Smith, pointing to him as a ‘team strength.’  Days after his dismissal, John Schneider gave a much more sober and balanced answer when asked to assess Smith’s play in 2023.  It is fair to say that the ground the 33-year-old quarterback was standing on got softer with Carroll no longer at the head of the table.

The contract the Seahawks signed Smith to last year gives the team options and flexibility.  It was structured to be revisited after the 2023 season, no matter what the results were on the field.

Let’s review it for ourselves and look at what options the Seahawks have.  We need to start by looking at how Smith did in 2023.

A Brief Look at His Season

John Schneider’s response to the question perfectly encapsulated Smith’s performance this year.  It was ‘good.’  There were things to like and things that were not up to snuff.  Consistently good performances were elusive, just as they were in 2022.  But on a high view level, the overall numbers declined badly.

That is where we need to start.  Numbers are cold and they remove feelings from the equation.  Particularly when we are talking about what an amazing feel-good story that we have all witnessed since trading Russell Wilson away.  This year, Pete Carroll constantly deflected criticism away from his quarterback and presented an extremely positive view of him when asked in press conferences about his occasionally spotty performances.  Such an influential figure speaking that way often shapes a good portion of the narrative for fans.

Context is also critical.

In Smith’s contract, he wagered heavily on himself in 2023, agreeing to escalators for the four major quarterback statistics (plus one team achievement – a playoff appearance) were he to exceed the prior season’s numbers, with as much as $15 million extra dollars available to him.  How did he do?

He was not able to earn any of the escalators.  In fact, he fell well short of the four passing targets.

How short?  So much so, we need to have a look at his performance to assess his future with the team.  His overall performance this year was far less effective than 2022.

Smith played all 17 games in 2022 but only 15 this year, missing the second San Francisco game and the Philadelphia game with injury.  To get a true apples-to-apples comparison, I took his average production over the 15 games and credited him with 2 more games to get a fair representation.  The results are very interesting:

That is a lot of red.  His numbers dropped in every standard quarterback statistic, except for a significant decrease in sacks and hits and a slight improvement in interceptions.

Of particular concern are the touchdowns, completion percentage and the rushing first downs.  We will take them one at a time and give them some context.

Touchdowns

Going from 30 touchdowns to a projected 23 is a major drop.  Smith went from an excellent #6 in the NFL last season all the way down to #20.  The only notable quarterback below him was Trevor Lawrence, with a projected 22 touchdown passes.

Where did the drop in touchdowns come from?  The answer is both revealing and troubling.

Last year, thirteen of Smith’s touchdown passes were of the explosive variety, travelling further than twenty yards.  This year?  Only four went that far.  For added context, one of those four only had a few inches of air on it, as Smith dumped the ball off to Kenneth Walker just past the line of scrimmage in Week Ten against Washington and he took it for a 64-yard touchdown.

To take it a step further, how many touchdown throws were not explosives but still in the healthy 15–19-yard range?  Last year:  five.  This year:  two.

Only six touchdown passes of 15 yards or more.  Last year?  Smith had eighteen.

Those numbers scan when you compare the overall passing statistics from the two seasons.

In 2022, Smith’s passing yards were split between 59% yards before the catch (aka air yards) and 41% yards after the catch.

In 2023?  The numbers went down to 53% / 47%.

That is nearly a 10% swing in rate, which is backed up by Smith’s average depth of target.  It went down from 7.6 yards downfield last year to 7.0 yards this year.  That is an 8% drop and that took him from the middle of the pack to one of the shortest-distance throwers in the NFL, ranking #23 in terms of average pass depth among full time starters.

In and of itself, that strategy is perfectly fine.  Shortening up the field in the ever-quickening NFL is a choice you can stand behind easily.

However, the biggest selling point of shorter passes reveals an even more troubling downturn for Smith in 2023.

Completion Percentage

When you shorten up your passing game, the expectation is that accuracy will improve and the sticks can move more freely.  A nice side benefit of this style comes in the red zone.  An established routine of short, quick passes should yield a higher rate of touchdowns in tighter confines.

Did the Seahawks receive either of those benefits from shortening up their passing game in 2023?  No, they did not.

Smith’s accuracy suffered a shocking drop from the previous year.  In 2022 he was the most accurate passer in the NFL.  It was a stunning achievement for a ‘new’ starter who was not being bottle-fed the offense but regularly making highlight reel plays with his deep throws.

This year we witnessed a regression to the middle of the pack, as he was #15 in the NFL.  We need context in order to grasp this change.

I charted the last five years of NFL quarterback play, noting the year-to-year accuracy change for all quarterbacks that played a combination of at least 30 games in that two-year stretch.

Only two quarterbacks in that sample had a bigger accuracy drop from one year to the next than Smith did in 2023:  Josh Allen from 2020 to 2021 (69.2% to 63.3%) and Derek Carr from 2021 to 2022 (68.4% to 60.8%).

Josh Allen is everyone’s favorite statistical anomaly.  The 69.2% is more of an outlier as his career completion rate over six seasons is 63.2%.  It should also be noted that in 2021 he threw 36 touchdowns, ran for another six, led the team in rushing first downs and took them to the AFC Championship game that year.  All that took most of the sting out of that accuracy drop.

Derek Carr’s drop is more simply explained.  Advocates Jon Gruden and Rich Bisaccia were not brought back in 2022.  Josh McDaniels was hired and there was a big offensive and tonal change and he and Carr never got on the same page.  A parting of ways was best for all involved and Carr was benched to avoid paying his guaranteed money should he be injured and then in the offseason moved on to New Orleans.

Keep in mind, Carr immediately rebounded with the Saints this year, posting a 68.4% completion rate, #3 in the NFL for quarterbacks who started all 17 games.  Also, he has a healthy history of accuracy, with four seasons of throwing for 68% or better.

Does Smith have a running tool or a high-leverage touchdown tool like Allen does to mitigate a drop in completion percentage?  Does he have multiple years of sustained accuracy to earn the benefit of the doubt like Carr has?  Particularly when you add in that he will be entering his age-34 year this fall?

No, he does not.

We need to dive a little deeper into what caused this drop in accuracy.

Decision Making Has Been a Challenge

As I said above, a shorter passing game typically yields a better overall completion rate and better red zone efficiency.

We know that the overall completion rate dropped significantly.  But were there any red zone gains?  No.  The Seahawks only improved from #27 in the NFL last year to #26.  Smith had nine touchdown throws inside of 10 yards last year.  This year?  He projected out to have eleven.  A slight improvement but not what you would expect.  That does make sense when you watch his play in the red zone.  He seems indecisive at times and then rushes throws when the protection breaks down.

Another area to consider is assessing his options after the ball has been hiked.

One point I have consistently mentioned over the course of this season is that Smith has scaled way back on running and scrambling.  His runs dropped from 68 last year to 37 this year, nearly cutting them in half.  He only picked up ten first downs, compared to twenty-four last year.

How important is that?  It tipped the run/pass balance in a very interesting direction.  The Seahawks were the fifth heaviest passing team in the NFL (and therefore the fifth lightest running team) in terms of play selection this year.  It represented a nearly 4% swing towards passing from 2022, on a Pete Carroll-led team no less.

And yet, as you see above, the pass production did not increase proportionally.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

Interestingly, Smith has had nearly the same amount of time in the pocket this year as last year, with 2.4 seconds recorded by Pro Football Reference for both seasons.

With Smith choosing to scramble far less often or take a designed run this year, it is not hard to see why Hurries had such a spike.  PFR defines a hurry as “a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure.”

If you do not get rid of the ball quickly and you are not inclined to run, you are going to get Hurried.

And yet, the passing production stats gained by the choice do not justify the sacrifice of not running the ball and picking up those easy yards when they are available.

We have seen and commented on Smith’s lack of crisp decision-making this year many times.  It has shown up in chunks of games – quarters or even halves – resulting in no real movement from the offense.  Games like Week One against the Rams, Week Three against the Panthers, Week Eight against the Browns and Week Twelve against the Forty-Niners showed Smith at times to be hesitant, struggling to progress through his reads and then often throwing into well-covered windows.

While it is positive that he improved in PFF’s Turnover-Worthy Plays, from worst in the NFL last year to “only” the sixth worst.  But it is still a troubling number.

Also, we have witnessed poor decision-making and execution from Smith at key times this season:  Week Two against the Lions (taking a 17-yard sack very late), Week Six against the Bengals (taking too long and being sacked/hit on fourth down in the red zone – twice), Week Eleven against the Rams (the end of game run call that wasted time), and Week Thirteen against the Cowboys (the fourth down throw at Deejay Dallas’ feet that sealed the loss), among others.

While Smith had several late-game drives that tied or won the game for the Seahawks, there are games lost that his mistakes greatly contributed to as well. If the offense cannot consistently build a lead and must rely on desperation drives to get wins, the ‘why not’ of it bears examination as well.

Some Conclusions

Let’s be clear, not every single problem or challenge I commented on above is Smith’s fault through and through.  On the contrary, one of the reasons for the organization parting ways with Pete Carroll is they had become stale and had been unable to correct the situation.

The defense was awful this year.  No doubt some of those game-winners engineered by Smith were necessary because the defense could not get off the field to protect a lead.

The Offensive Line had to be patched together due to severe injury at times.  The numbers show they were not much worse than 2022 in pass protection but the run-blocking was wanting.  The team’s rushers dropped from a robust 4.8 yards per carry last year (good for #5 in the NFL) to a middling 4.1 yards per carry (#17).

Not every play call and resulting bad play was directly on Smith.  The whole team’s lack of preparation is not on him either.

Jason Myers missed a makable field goal try to win that Rams game.

This may feel like a hit piece on Smith, an attempt to run him out of town on a rail to match the fresh start the Seahawks will see in the Personnel and Head Coaching stations.  It is not.

It is simply the cost of leading the team and getting a huge contract.  You must make it work and this year, accomplishing that has been a real struggle for Smith.

I do think a fresh start at General Manager and Head Coach will beget a fresh look at the player at the team’s most important position.

Smith’s late game-winning drives have been well-documented.  I think we are very familiar with the positives that he brings to the table.  This is an attempt to fill out the discussion a bit.  Given what we have discussed, a $31.2 million cap hit does seem like an awful lot to swallow and hope for a rebound season.

Based on what we have discussed and the fact that the organization has undergone big changes, if the Seahawks do decide to make a drastic change this offseason, it should not surprise anyone.

With that said, what options do the Seahawks have with his contract?  There are several.

The Seahawks Have a Multiplicity of Choices

See the chart below for the most logical options the Seahawks have to either make a change to the roster or pick up some salary cap flexibility:

The top line of the chart shows the cap effect of Smith’s contract with no changes.  If the team does nothing, that is how their cap plays out.  That is our baseline.

Note: The numbers underneath the top option are taken from Over The Cap but they do not precisely reflect the site’s cap savings and dead cap numbers.  Why not?  The salary is correctly shown currently as non-guaranteed at this time.

Per Brady Henderson of ESPN, he has confirmed that Smith’s $12.7 million salary for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed five days after the waiver period (The Super Bowl on February 11), so if the Seahawks want to avoid locking that large salary in for 2024, they will need to move quickly and get something done before February 16.

That is our next baseline, a clean shaking of the hands and parting ways and the first option shown.  They will have to eat $17.4 million in dead cap money but they gain a precious $13.8 million in cap room and could resign someone like Drew Lock and spend the rest on other parts of the roster.  The $9.6 million roster bonus comes off the books and vanishes.

An unconventional but possible option would be to take this step, let Smith explore his market and then approach him about coming back.  It is very tricky to pull off but possible given the goodwill the Seahawks have earned with him over the years.

The next three choices involve converting money to a signing bonus and spreading that money into future seasons.  They are very simple operations and in my opinion are the most likely.  It will just be up to the Seahawks to decide how aggressive on the cap they want to be this year.  This is a familiar option for the team, as they utilized it last year with Tyler Lockett, Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.

— They can convert the $9.6 million Roster Bonus due March 18 to a Signing Bonus and split it in half and gain $4.8 million and push the same amount to 2025 (must be done by March 18)

— They can convert a maximum of $11.05 million of Smith’s $12.7 million 2024 salary into a signing bonus and gain $5.525 million and push the same amount to 2025 (note – this is flexible.  They can convert less if they like.  I just took it all the way down to the minimum 2024 salary for a 7+ year NFL veteran of $1.65 million, which is the most you are allowed)

— They can double-dip and convert both.  They would gain $10.325 million and push the same amount to 2025.

Then we come to the least desirable but potential option:  trading Smith once the League Year starts on March 13 but before the Roster Bonus comes due March 18.  The Seahawks are free to negotiate anytime to trade Smith but it cannot be processed until the new league year starts.  That is what makes it difficult.  A team will be acquiring Smith with a $12.7 million guaranteed salary and then agreeing to pay or convert the $9.6 million signing bonus.  If Smith does not have more than one team seriously interested, the sole team could squeeze the Seahawks right up to that deadline and acquire him for a song.

There is one more choice not listed on the chart we should discuss.

The Path to Renegotiation

From now and proceeding until the all-important February 16 Salary Guarantee Day, the Seahawks have no new guaranteed money on Smith’s contract.  They are only responsible for the $17.4 million of signing bonus money that is left over from the contract he signed last year that needs to be accounted for on the salary cap, and currently it is split in two chunks of $8.7 million, one for 2024 and one for 2025.

There is an opportunity to approach Smith and his agent and negotiate to tear the contract up and rework it and make it beneficial for both sides.  They would only need to account for that $17.4 million from the current contract.  Other than that, they are free to come up with all kinds of options to make it work for both parties.

It would take a negotiator’s touch to get this done, though.  If they approach Smith’s team right now with the idea that they either need to make the salary cap work better, or their analysis indicates that they just cannot afford to play him on a $31.2 million cap hit in 2024, they must have a Plan B in place, ready to go should they desire to walk away before that February 16 deadline.

In that vein, should be noted that teams can negotiate with and sign their own unrestricted free agents like Lock at any time.  They do not have to wait for the new league year to start in March.

This would require some quick work.  Hiring a new Head Coach, getting his input on Smith as well as evaluating the other options via free agency and the draft would call for some late nights and energy drinks.  It can be done though.  How?

First off, as I mentioned, this contract was agreed to with the idea that it would be reworked at some point along the line.  It would be negligent for either side to claim they are being blindsided and express surprise that the other party would like to go back to the table.

Just as a theoretical exercise, let’s flip the scenario to Smith’s advantage.  Imagine Smith had hit every single escalator target this year and claimed his $15 million prize.  The Seahawks would have a massive $46 million cap number for him in 2024.  The chance they would ride with that huge number – especially given their other cap space constraints – is very slim.  They would contact him in good faith and try to both reward his fantastic play and give them some cap relief.  The same would also be true if Smith failed to deliver a good season.  Which is far closer to what happened in 2023.  And that is fine for $10 million in cap dollars.  But is it fine for over triple that amount?  That is the crux of the matter.

Secondly, hiring a new Head Coach does not reset the entire organization and roster to where John Schneider would all the sudden need to start fresh with a lot of homework to do in evaluating Smith’s 2023 season.  He has already done that, has a firm grasp on where the team and the organization stand.  In Head Coaching interviews, both sides would want the Seahawks’ quarterback situation to be very high on the list of interview topics.  If the team makes a Head Coaching hire without being in lock-step on the quarterback currently on the roster… let’s just say that will not happen.

What will happen to Smith and his contract and cap number?  I do not know.  The Seahawks themselves probably do not know for sure.  It is too early in the process to really know.  One thing that feels certain though — some kind of change will come to the quarterback room, the salary cap, or both, for the Seahawks in 2024.

Note from Rob — big thank you to Curtis for this thorough, engaging analysis of Geno’s contract. I’ve also done a video today discussing my top-three candidates to replace Pete Carroll. You can watch it below and be sure to subscribe to my YouTube channel so you never miss a video:

 

It felt like there were a lot of ‘easter eggs’ in John Schneider’s press conference this week. After all, this isn’t a draft. Deception isn’t necessary. You’re not going to blurt out you’re preferred candidate but neither do you have to go overboard trying to conceal your intentions.

The extent to which Schneider talked about the issue of losing a successful offensive coordinator felt like an obvious tell that, if nothing else, they were conscious of this very real problem in the modern NFL. You only have to see from the total lack of buzz surrounding Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, Steve Spagnuolo and others. The league wants offense. If you hire an offensive coach and nail the defensive coordinator position, you are far more likely to keep your staff together.

I suspect this will be emphasised even further if/when Raheem Morris, Ejiro Eviro, Patrick Graham and maybe even Dan Quinn don’t get Head Coaching offers, while the offensive-minded guys are preferred. We’ll see what happens.

The other thing I think might be more telling than anyone first thought was the point Schneider made about being in charge of hiring the coaches. Initially I thought he might be making an ‘it wasn’t me, ‘guv, honest‘ type gesture — trying to distance himself from the inglorious appointments of Ken Norton Jr, Clint Hurtt and others. I now want to bring another angle to the table. What if it’s a hint that he’s the one doing due diligence behind the scenes to create a staff?

This wouldn’t be necessary if he was going to hire Dan Quinn or Mike Vrabel. They’ll have ready-made staffs. Quinn in particular will have been working on a plan for a long time. If he was going to take a chance on a relative newcomer though, without a rich contacts list, Schneider would presumably need to assist.

Bobby Slowik was not a household name 12 months ago. His work with Houston has elevated him into the spotlight. It’s been such a meteoric rise, most people don’t know that a few years ago he was working for PFF as an analyst — appearing on podcasts discussing the NFL with Zac Robinson (now working with the Rams).

His work with the Texans has been so impressive — helping turn C.J. Stroud into a rookie revelation and making a cast of receivers and tight ends highly effective in one of the surprise stories of the season. Despite all of the legit concerns about a lack of experience, it’s impossible not to look at the way he was scheming targets open (brilliantly highlighted by Josh Norris here, here, here and here) and wonder — maybe this guy is legit? Maybe we’re seeing the start of something special? Perhaps all of the concerns about his inexperience deserve to go in the same place as the concerns people had about Sean McVay when he took over the Rams?

We’re living in a new world. The NFL has changed, as Schneider acknowledged on Tuesday. The game will always be about winning in the trenches and every team, at least for me, should set out to build greatness up front, find a quarterback and then — as the third most important aspect — find ways to challenge your opponent schematically. The modern way to do this is to use deception and misdirection to create wide-open targets and exploit weaknesses (we’ve seen Shanahan and McVay attack Seattle this way for a long time).

Slowik is showing he understands this and is very good at it. Couple that with his background of being around Kyle Shanahan and McVay, plus the fact he speaks incredibly well for such an inexperienced coach, and maybe he is the real deal?

Doesn’t this seem like an old head on young shoulders?

Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik on head coach DeMeco Ryans’ leadership.

“You just can tell the kind of person he is, how infectious his attitude is.” https://t.co/WKxGb1HESs pic.twitter.com/0mLaLdsGny

— SportsRadio 610 (@SportsRadio610) January 13, 2024

If you need a glowing reference from anyone, how about Kyle Shanahan?

“Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with,” Shanahan said. “I didn’t want to lose him at all. DeMeco knew that he was special. DeMeco and he had a close bond together because they both were [quality control coaches].”

Let’s just repeat those first two sentences: “Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with. DeMeco knew that he was special.”

I could write down about five different scenarios for what the Seahawks are going to do and make a compelling case for each. One of those scenarios, without a doubt, would be Schneider taking the plunge on someone like Slowik. Shooting for greatness, rather than settling on a new coach. The man who craved gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the draft, when he already had Russell Wilson, doesn’t feel like a conservative coach-picker to me.

Perhaps that comment about having control over the coaching staff is indicative? Maybe the Seahawks intend to go after someone like Slowik and part of Schneider’s plan will be to use his own extensive contacts to land the defensive coordinator who can greatly improve an underperforming unit? To go and get the wise old head, in whatever capacity that might be, to act as a sounding-board for Slowik in his first big gig?

It feels brash, confident, aggressive. It feels like a John Schneider move.

Plus if he intends to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later, why not go for the man who has done as much as anyone to elevate the play of a young signal-caller this season?

And as we’ve discussed — while all of the candidates they’re talking to are worthy in their own right to be interviewed for the main role, there are some coaches who might be available down the line. A year ago, Ejiro Evero was offered the chance to stay in Denver as defensive coordinator or move on, once Sean Payton was hired. He chose to go to Carolina. Now they’re hiring a new staff. Will the Panthers similarly allow him to depart if he wishes? Could the Seahawks create enough of an impression to team him with Slowik, perhaps as ‘Assistant Head Coach/defensive coordinator’?

It’d be totally different to what the Seahawks had under Carroll. That does feel important. It’s time for a new vision, new ideas and new personnel — not clinging to the past and trying to copy what happened before.

I mean, look at what 49ers writers are saying on their websites:

Good news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Dann Quinn.

Bad news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Bobby Slowik.

If Ben Johnson really does have his heart set on Washington (as appears to be the case), Slowik could be the ideal alternative.

Assuming the Texans don’t upset the Ravens this weekend, the Seahawks would be allowed to meet with Slowik in person next week. The process will ramp up over the next seven days, with the only potential delay being the possibility of other candidates remaining in the final four. If these games go as expected, that would only leave Detroit’s Johnson unless the Seahawks do want to speak to Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald (so far, he hasn’t had a reported interview request).

If one of the worst kept secrets in football of Johnson to Washington is legit — and if Houston loses this weekend — the Seahawks won’t have any limitations in place in terms of speaking to the candidates they seem to have identified for the role. It’s not impossible that this time next week we might know who Seattle’s new Head Coach is.

Finally — I was invited on to Dan Viens’ show today to talk about the Seahawks’ coaching situation. Check it out below:

One of the things we’ve done this week is discuss and project the direction the Seahawks might take under John Schneider. His press conference was interesting and revealing for a number of reasons. He admitted the need to be conscious of modern NFL trends and he reiterated the concern over losing successful offensive coordinators, among other topics.

Listening to Schneider speak, it felt very much like things were heading in the direction of the Seahawks appointing an offensive play-caller to lead their team. However, I want to present an important alternative view — just to give you something to consider.

Ron Wolf is John’s self-confessed mentor. Schneider even said during his press conference he’d spent considerable time talking to Wolf on Friday.

Is there anything to learn from Wolf’s approach to football that perhaps inspired those around him?

I reached out to someone who knows Wolf and asked about his philosophies. This is what I was told about Wolf’s approach — build your trenches, the draft is your life-line and when it comes to Head Coaches, you want a father figure. You want, in the words of the source, ‘a tough SOB’. Someone very capable of standing up in front of the guys and leading.

Having specific offensive or defensive-minded leadership was never mentioned.

The game has changed a lot over the last 30 years and Schneider, as we mentioned, referred to being across those changes when he spoke on Tuesday. Listen to any former players or coaches speak in the media and they all talk about the challenge of leading modern-day players. They are different. They expect to be treated differently. These are things you have to consider and it’s arguably why a growing line of Bill Belichick’s coaching tree haven’t succeeded.

Frankly, it wouldn’t be surprising if this is the kind of thing Schneider is talking about when he speaks about being mindful of the direction of the league. Yet there are still ‘tough SOB’s’ coaching in the league and having success. Dan Campbell, DeMeco Ryans, John Harbaugh. Not everyone has to be quoting rap songs and cracking jokes like Mike McDaniel. There is a way of adapting an old-school style, if you want to call it that, for the modern game.

Wolf hired three coaches — Mike Holmgren, Ray Rhodes and Mike Sherman. Two offensive guys, one defensive.

The point I’m trying to make here is — I wouldn’t read too much into the way Green Bay have ended up appointing offensive coaches over the years, working with a big-name quarterback. I’ve referenced that myself a few times. I’m not sure it’s actually that relevant.

If we’re going to consider anything from Green Bay and the Ron Wolf era — it actually points more towards the Mike Vrabel and Dan Quinn style of coach, or any of the younger guys who might similarly fit the bill.

Another thing I did learn in my conversations this week — there’s real clarity on how the game has changed — with an increase in spread concepts, deception, creating mismatches. In return, defensive football has adjusted more towards speed and quickness instead of size. Even so, it was spelt out to me that irrespective of all that — if you can’t run the ball or stop the run with your play in the trenches, you won’t succeed. That remains a significant thought process within the NFL, even if it isn’t popular online.

Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and takes it very seriously. Look what’s happening in Detroit. The 49ers have the third lowest opponent rushing yards per game this season and the Lions are second. San Francisco has the third best running attack, the Lions are sixth. The way it was put to me was — you might be throwing more these days to set up the run (rather than the other way around) but at some point, typically playoff time, you’re going to need to be able to run the ball and stop the run.

None of this is that revelatory but it was interesting to hear it from someone inside the league. Running the ball and defending the run are two things the Seahawks don’t do well. That is going to have to change, irrespective of the type of coach they appoint.

That person could be the man currently running Detroit’s #6 ranked run offense. Ben Johnson fits the modern day profile for a Head Coach but he’s also been around Dan Campbell and he’s delivered a physical, productive run game.

It also might not be him, even if they would like it to be. Here’s the latest piece of evidence. There was already plenty of chatter, per Mike Garafolo, that Johnson and new Commanders GM Adam Peters had talked about hooking up. Johnson was asked about Peters at his press conference today. When he said, “I’ve heard nothing but fantastic things about (Peters)” — with a ton of emphasis on ‘fantastic’ — it made it seem like the writing is on the wall:

Lions OC Ben Johnson was asked if he knows much about new Commanders GM Adam Peters pic.twitter.com/HMzaWhqauM

— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) January 18, 2024

Garofolo mentioned on KJR today that, despite saying in this clip that he’s ‘looking forward to meeting him’, they’ve already met. He also said that Johnson’s preference is to ‘go somewhere and build it from the ground up’ — drafting a quarterback early and all of that. Everything points to Washington for Ben Johnson. This is a lot of smoke and I think it’s near a big old fire, although Ian Rapoport says Johnson will speak to the Seahawks on Saturday.

If Johnson ultimately proves to be a non-starter for Seattle, I’d just keep in mind the likes of Vrabel and Quinn. If Schneider’s mentor was big on leadership, toughness and being a father figure to his players — they both fit that mould.

Garafolo mentioned Scott Fitterer will give Ejiro Evero a glowing reference after the pair worked in Carolina. It’s also worth noting that long-time former Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who Schneider will be familiar with, has worked closely alongside Eviro for the last two years in Denver and Carolina. Garafolo says he has a punchers chance at the job.

He also had some interesting things to say about Vrabel — suggesting he’s very different to Pete Carroll and if they want to maintain the positive vibe in the facility from the Carroll era, his appointment would create a sea change. He says Vrabel’s famous public reaction to the A.J. Brown trade would be typical of his reaction to things he disagreed with.

On the contrary, it’s also worth pointing out again that Adam Schefter said this week that Schneider and Vrabel have a ‘great’ relationship. Schefter has today reported the Seahawks want to meet with Vrabel about the job.

What does it all mean? It’s hard to decipher. I sense for the next two or three weeks we’ll be tying ourselves in knots trying to parse every report and statement. Meanwhile the Seahawks will likely go through the process properly and simply appoint whoever impresses them the most.

A couple of days ago we noted the sudden buzz surrounding Mike Vrabel and the Seahawks. In an appearance on the Dan Patrick show, Adam Schefter revealed John Schneider and Vrabel had ‘a great relationship’. Peter King connected Vrabel to Seattle saying it would ‘make sense’. Gregg Bell did a piece projecting betting odds, putting Vrabel as the 3/1 favourite for the gig.

It all came out of the blue on the same day. Now we have a new report on the same topic. ESPN’s Dan Graziano played matchmaker with all of the teams looking to hire a Head Coach. He paired Seattle with Vrabel:

I know, he hasn’t even shown up on the Seahawks’ interview list yet. And sure, Quinn has a connection to Seattle from his time as its defensive coordinator under Carroll. The Vrabel thing is a bit of a hunch, though I do have several sources who share the same hunch and the idea that he could be a sneaky late entry into this pool.

It’s almost certainly a coincidence that the Carroll news broke the day after the news that the Titans had fired Vrabel. But it’s also possible that the opportunity the current high-level candidate list offers is part of the reason Seattle decided now was the time to make a change.

There’s not a lot of meat on the bone here. Graziano simply refers to sources sharing a hunch. Yet it’s a hunch that is starting to do the rounds through various reporters.

So what’s going on?

Firstly, I think this could be partly instigated by the Vrabel camp. Everyone expected he would go back to New England but they appointed Jared Mayo instead. With the Chargers seemingly set on Jim Harbaugh, the Raiders with Antonio Pierce and the Falcons — short of any movement from Dallas to remove Mike McCarthy — positioning to hire Bill Belichick, there aren’t that many alternatives for Vrabel.

He’s been around Adam Peters the new Washington GM before, because Peters worked for the Patriots when Vrabel played in New England. However, as we’ve been saying, the word on the street is Peters has been communicating with Ben Johnson to team up. The hot candidate in this hiring cycle, Johnson appears destined for Washington unless things change.

Having just left the Titans and with the only other open gig in Carolina, it’s possible Vrabel looks at the coaching landscape and sees the Seahawks as his best and possibly only realistic option to jump straight back in. It wouldn’t be unheard of for a few well placed calls to go in by an agent, generating a little media buzz around Vrabel and the Seahawks. It can’t do any harm because at the moment, nobody’s talking about him. It feels like he needs his name out there at a time when Johnson, Bobby Slowik, Mike Macdonald and others are getting most of the attention.

That’s not to say there’s nothing in this link. Such an appointment would make a lot of sense for the Seahawks. Vrabel is highly rated and had a lot of success in Tennessee initially.

It’s worth noting again all that he achieved. He led the Titans to the AFC Championship game in his second season, beating the Patriots and Ravens on the road (ending the Brady/Belichick era in the process) before losing to eventual Champions Kansas City. He followed that up by going 23-10 in the next two seasons, although they lost close playoff games to Baltimore and Cincinnati. He won coach of the year in 2021.

Things were really motoring at this stage but then GM Jon Robinson shockingly traded A.J. Brown during the 2022 draft. It was a calamitous error, preferring a cheap rookie (Treylon Burks) instead of paying Brown. Vrabel’s disbelieving reaction was captured on camera once the plan was enacted.

That was the beginning of the end for the Titans under Vrabel. They started 7-3 in 2022 but after dropping two games to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, Robinson was fired. They ended the season on a seven-game losing streak. That run included four games where they lost by four points or less. You have to wonder what would’ve happened with Brown still on the roster.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry both aged and talk about their futures was persistent. It created a weird dynamic. The Titans under Robinson drafted Malik Willis to plan for life after Tannehill. Interim GM Ryan Cowden actually set up the team for the 2023 draft, where they selected another quarterback in Will Levis. The situation became quite muddled, especially when they chose Ron Carthon to replace Cowden in the hot-seat. They’ve had three decision makers running the roster in three years.

Jumping between QB’s plus constant chatter about Henry’s future, not to mention a host of injuries to the defense, meant the Titans finished Vrabel’s final season 6-11. Yet you can legitimately challenge how much responsibility he has for that, especially given the way his team continued to fight until the bitter end — preventing Jacksonville from winning the AFC South with a hard-nosed victory in week 18. They also had the #1 red zone defense in the league this season and the #18 ranked defense despite all of the injuries. They punched the Seahawks in the mouth on Christmas Eve and nearly won, despite missing half of their roster.

For Seattle he’d be a ready-made Head Coach, working with a far more settled front office unlikely to pull any shock moves like the Brown trade. If he can get the Titans to the AFC Championship without a lot of stars other than Henry and Brown, you wonder what he could do with more talent at his disposal.

It’s also important to note what kind of coach Vrabel is. He’s described as defensive-minded but he is to the extent Dan Campbell is offensive-minded. Both coaches are figurehead types. Both are highly aggressive, focus a lot on situational football and pay attention to analytics.

As with Campbell, the staff appointments are critical. In Detroit, Campbell had the 29th ranked offense (per DVOA) under Anthony Lynn. After switching to Ben Johnson, their offense has been ranking in the top-10 (#5 this year).

Vrabel’s first offensive coordinator hire in Tennessee was Matt LaFleur, as he looked to tap into the Sean McVay tree. With hindsight it was an inspired decision as LaFleur has done well in Green Bay. It also spoke to Vrabel being open-minded about offensive trends.

LaFleur didn’t have a successful year as the team went 9-7. The Titans lost Marcus Mariota to injury, Delanie Walker missed virtually the entire season and the O-line was banged up. They finished 25th in DVOA for offense. Despite that, he was still hired by the Packers after just one season as an offensive coordinator.

He was replaced by Arthur Smith, who helped craft the AFC Championship run in 2019, then led the #5 offense (per DVOA) in the NFL in 2020. He might be a bit of a figure of fun currently, given how things ended in Atlanta — yet when he was hired by the Falcons, he was seen as one of the hot coaching candidates in the NFL. Smith’s departure was met with widespread disappointment in Tennessee.

After going 2/2 with his hires, Vrabel then couldn’t repeat the act. His third offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, was fired after two seasons. Tim Kelly took over in 2023. Again though, this also coincided with losing Brown and Henry going from ‘superhero’ to at least a more mortal version of a brilliant running back. Ryan Tannehill only played in 12 games in 2022 due to injury — with Joshua Dobbs and the rookie Willis filling in. This year they broke in another rookie in Levis. Great offensive output shouldn’t have been expected, especially with constant injuries to the offensive line.

The two big takeaways here are — Vrabel has shown an ability to get these hires right initially in his time at Tennessee which is encouraging. However, John Schneider specifically mentioned yesterday the problem with successful offensive play-callers being poached. That happened to Vrabel twice. You can’t keep replacing OC’s and retain success, even if the Brown trade made life tricky for Downing and Kelly.

That line on coordinators was quite telling from Schneider yesterday and one of my main takeaways from the press conference, as noted in my reaction piece, was the feeling he’s focused on a young, offensive-minded coach in tune with the modern NFL. I’d guess that’s what Jody Allen and Bert Kolde want too, even if everyone’s open-minded to alternatives.

When Schneider was asked directly if he had any input on the decision to part with Carroll, he refrained from answering apart from to say Carroll knew his opinion on where they needed to improve, as did ownership. My impression is Carroll wanted to ‘run things back’, retaining most of the personnel, philosophy and coaching. Schneider, I’d suggest, favoured a different approach featuring bigger personnel and philosophical changes including the drafting of a quarterback in the near future — a view I think ownership shares. That would mean pairing your offensive coach with a new quarterback as has been the modus operandi in Green Bay for decades.

Schneider also admitted they’re having to compete for candidates, which to me means Ben Johnson, the coach Mike Garafolo recently called ‘the belle of the ball’ in this cycle. He ticks every box and, to me at least, is the obvious person to make the #1 target. If Johnson is truly destined for Washington, what are the other options? Is Bobby Slowik ready for a top job if they want a young offensive mind?

The Seahawks, quite rightly, are going through a process. They are right to interview a large number of candidates. Picking the brains of different coaches from different teams and schemes is what they should do. Yet they’ll likely have a ‘name’ or ‘names’ at the top of their long list.

If they are competing for Johnson and miss out, there’s a situation where someone like Vrabel could become extremely appealing. He’s been there, done it. I think it’d be an easy hire to sell to fans.

Further to that, the coordinator he had most success with — Arthur Smith — is available. He’s also unlikely to be poached any time soon after failing in Atlanta. So there’s an opportunity to create a water-tight staff where there are no concerns about your offensive play-caller being poached. If Smith recreates the success he had with Vrabel in Tennessee, nobody will be complaining.

Therefore, I think Vrabel should be considered a dark horse for this job. Perhaps, you could say, Plan B. However, I still think Schneider’s words point towards a plan to go with a young, innovative offensive coach and the top candidate who fits that bill is Ben Johnson. If they compete for him and lose out, and if they think Bobby Slowik is a bit too green, it’s plausible they could pivot to the established Vrabel.

It was an unusual sight to see John Schneider alone at the podium, with no Pete Carroll flanking him. Prior to the introduction of a pre-draft weekly radio show on Seattle Sports a year ago, Schneider’s media appearances have been rare over the last 14 years.

This felt like the official beginning of a new era — and Schneider delivered some intriguing nuggets about the past, present and future. A huge, franchise-changing decisions has been made. It’s only right the man now in charge faces the media. I thought this was an impressive and necessary press conference.

The word ‘stagnant’ was used quite early on. A journalist picked up on this and followed it up. Schneider was careful to say he wasn’t referring to Carroll’s team but it felt like a Freudian slip, especially given he went on talk about Marty Schottenheimer telling him a coach can’t stay somewhere longer than 10 years.

Even though Schneider and Carroll were clearly close and enjoyed a healthy working relationship, you get the impression he was ready for this opportunity. ‘Stagnant’ is exactly the word I’d use to describe recent seasons. The Seahawks weren’t going anywhere. It was time for change.

Schneider was honest about the team, admitting they perhaps overachieved in 2022 but underachieved in 2023. He stated he’d had no say in any coaching appointments since 2010 — an encouraging comment if you’re worried the next Head Coach is going to be an encore to the Ken Norton, Clint Hurtt and other underwhelming coordinator hires under Carroll.

Schneider offered the pitch he’ll be making to prospective coaches as he competes for their services — this is a young team with a great core, filled with talent. He said he feels they are ready to compete now. That’s something many other teams in the hiring cycle cannot say.

He revealed he’s had a list of prospective coaches for some time, admitting he’d been on guard for Carroll retiring. Schneider told a story about how Carroll had once said he was ‘going to change the world’ and he interpreted that as he might call it a day. It speaks to the recent reports from Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo that the idea of Carroll quitting has lingered for some time. After all, Jay Glazer reported in 2017 he was considering it — and that’s why we’ve always been open-minded about the possibility.

Schneider’s comments on Geno Smith were fascinating. He was asked to review his 2023 performance. He noted it was a reverse of last year, where he started well and faded. This year he had a difficult start and improved. It was a short and to the point answer. Certainly there was no commitment to Smith or any effusive praise. He could’ve easily said something like, ‘he’s our guy’ like Carroll occasionally did. It suggests Schneider might be plotting a new direction at quarterback as soon as this year. If nothing else, this answer felt like it confirmed Smith’s ‘bridge’ status at best.

He noted Ron Wolf as being a mentor. We’ve all known for a while that the two were close and Schneider said he’d spent a lot of time speaking to Wolf on Friday. We highlighted Wolf’s coaching appointment record last week — Mike Holmgren, a year of Ray Rhodes and then Mike Sherman. Rhodes was a defensive coach who was fired after one underwhelming 8-8 season. I’m going to dig into Wolf as a decision maker this week.

I thought the comment about needing to compete with other teams was a highlight. I don’t think this was just some buzz word used to describe the situation. I think this means the Seahawks have their eye on key targets they know are interesting other teams and they want to make sure they don’t miss out. That was encouraging and I think it was a hint that the most popular names in the cycle are probably the names the Seahawks are most focused on.

Schneider dropped a big hint about his thought-process, noting he was conscious of ‘where the league is’ in 2024 in a clear reference to current trends. We all know what that is — offensive-focused football. He also referred to Alex Smith’s experience coming into the league, where he ended up having to work with three different offensive coordinators in three years, something that Schneider felt impacted his career greatly.

He followed that answer up when talking about the philosophy of going with an offensive, defensive or special teams coach. He spoke very openly about the challenge of losing an offensive coordinator if they succeed. I don’t think Schneider was spelling it out that the Seahawks are going to hire an offensive-minded Head Coach but it suggests he’s conscious of the potential issue if you don’t. Or, that if he does go with a defensive-minded guy, they need to have a proper plan in place.

Mike McCarthy’s name was mentioned a lot but I wouldn’t read too much into that. As Jeff Simmons mentioned on our stream today (watch it below if you missed it, there’s a ton of info), Schneider apparently introduced McCarthy to his wife and the pair are very close. Schneider was heavily involved in McCarthy’s hiring in Green Bay, so it’s unsurprising he would refer back to it. It doesn’t mean McCarthy is destined for Seattle if he loses his job in Dallas.

Meanwhile, it’s been revealed today that the Seahawks have requested interviews with Ben Johnson and Bobby Slowik to go with the other candidates we reviewed in detail yesterday.

I want to share some takeaways from the press conference and thoughts about what I believe the Seahawks are thinking:

— I think Schneider’s preference is to land an offensive-minded Head Coach. I also think he’s itching to draft a quarterback to create a duo for the future. The Seahawks have a cluster of exciting weapons on offense, that is their strength, and I think they will lean into it for their identity. That’s been the Green Bay way of doing things and that’s Schneider’s DNA.

— For that reason, I do think Ben Johnson could be a prime target. As I noted in my piece last week, Johnson has had success with a lot of similar pieces to the ones they currently have in Seattle. He’s highly intelligent, innovative, aggressive and young. He wouldn’t be expecting any big sway in personnel and would give the Seahawks an opportunity to be productive quickly next season, building towards something more than merely competing. This kind of hire would speak to Schneider’s note that they’re conscious of the way the league is going. It would also give them an opportunity to avoid any concern about losing the play-caller/quarterback bond.

— I think Schneider knows that virtually every other team would also love to hire Johnson and that he’s in for a fight — especially with the Commanders. Aside from the reported hook-up between Washington’s new GM Adam Peters and Johnson, it’s believed Johnson’s preference is to live in the North East. The Commanders own the #2 pick which is a prime spot to draft a quarterback. Plus the new owners in Washington are well placed to throw money at a big salary. The Seahawks, if they want Johnson, will need to sell their superior facility, stadium, roster, culture and the beauty of the PNW. The feeling is Johnson is destined for the capital and the Seahawks might already be fighting a losing battle — but they have their interview request in so we’ll see.

— People always mention Detroit’s O-line when Johnson’s name comes up. It’s a fair point. It’s also worth noting how they created it. Taylor Decker was a #16 pick (the Seahawks own the #16 pick this year), Jonah Jackson was a third rounder, Frank Ragnow was a #20 pick, Graham Glasgow was a free agent and earns $2.75m a year (less than Phil Haynes) and Penei Sewell was a #7 pick. The Seahawks have already used a top-10 pick on a tackle. They can create a line like Detroit’s as long as they’re prepared to invest in a center and make wise decisions in the draft and free agency. The Lions’ haven’t done anything that dramatic or challenging. This isn’t impossible.

— If you can’t land Johnson, Bobby Slowik would be a good consolation prize — provided you can put a staff together to work with him. That’ll be the issue for Slowik and Mike Macdonald, two of the less experienced coaches in the cycle. It might be why the likes of Mike Vrabel and Dan Quinn ultimately carry high appeal with their contacts and experience.

— I think all of the candidates the Seahawks are speaking to are well worth interviewing. They’re talented, they’ve been successful and they have diverse backgrounds and skillsets. This is a rare opportunity to pick the brains of numerous individuals coaching for different teams. It’s an information-gathering process as much as anything. Many of us wanted an extensive search, not a mere coronation for one chosen coach. That is what’s happening.

— I do think in the case of Ejiro Eviro, Mike Kafka and Patrick Graham, it could be a double-edged opportunity. Eviro, a very highly rated defensive coordinator, might not stay with the Panthers when they appoint their new Head Coach. Likewise for Graham, another highly respected DC, when the Raiders make their decision. Meanwhile, things are so toxic in New York you wonder if Kafka could be lured away with a pseudo-promotion to ‘assistant Head coach’ if the Seahawks appoint a defensive leader. It’s not unheard of for teams to interview candidates, go in a different direction, then circle back with coordinator offers.

— Schneider’s fears over losing an offensive coordinator don’t necessarily mean he’s definitely going to appoint an offensive-minded Head Coach. He might simply be aware of the need for a plan. For example, if he appoints Mike Vrabel — who Jeff Simmons said in our stream ‘wants’ the Seahawks job — there’s a chance he’ll bring Arthur Smith with him to run the offense. After his stint in Atlanta, Smith is unlikely to be poached by any teams in the coming years. I appreciate nobody will be enthused about Smith as a play-caller. It’s worth remembering, though, that Tennessee had the #5 ranked offense in the league under Smith and that’s why he got the Falcons job in the first place.

— I think Vrabel is a candidate worth considering. His reputation is excellent within the league. He led the Titans to the AFC Championship, then had 23 wins in the next two seasons. Things went south after the former GM Jon Robinson traded away AJ Brown, something Vrabel wasn’t in favour of. Plus there was the unavoidable ageing of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Despite this, the Titans remained competitive and that was emphasised by the gut-punch they gave Jacksonville in week 18, preventing the Jaguars from winning the AFC South when they had nothing to play for. He’s a good situational coach with an aggressive mindset in terms of playcalling. He’s a figurehead similar to Dan Campbell and two of his offensive coordinators — Matt LaFleur and Arthur Smith — were hired away. So he can build a staff.

— A final, very important point to finish. A few people have messaged me saying the Seahawks need to appoint a defensive-minded Head Coach because the defense is the thing that needs fixing. Did you know, per DVOA, that eight of the top thirteen ranked defensive teams don’t have a defensive-minded Head Coach? This isn’t just San Francisco (Bosa), Dallas (Parsons) and Cleveland (Garrett) relying on blue-chip studs either. It’s Kansas City, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Detroit. The Seahawks don’t need a defensive leader to improve their defense from the 28th placed ranking they currently have. DVOA makes that clear. If they can get the defensive coordinator position right, they can enjoy long-lasting success. After all, how many interview requests are Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores and Steve Spagnuolo getting? Because the league is so tilted to offense these days, if you hit a home-run, you’re unlikely to lose your DC. The same cannot be said for your offensive play-caller, which is why many teams now prefer to make that person their Head Coach to avoid losing them.

If you missed today’s stream with Jeff Simmons, I’d highly recommend checking it out. There’s a ton of information and reasoned conversation:

In this stream we’ll be discussing John Schneider’s press conference today, the candidates who are going to be interviewed, the intriguing Mike Vrabel connection and more. Also, there’s some fresh news today with the report that the Seahawks have requested an interview with Ben Johnson, who I wrote about here. They’ve also reportedly requested an interview with Bobby Slowik.

Join us at 2pm…