Firstly, kudos to the NFL Network. For the last couple of years they’ve reduced their Senior Bowl coverage to basically an hour long highlights show. This year, there was four hours of live coverage and I was able to make some notes. It should be pointed out though, I need to wait for full 1v1 reps to emerge on YouTube to get a full picture. So these are just my initial observations.

I’ll start with the players I thought stood out the most, beginning with Georgia receiver Ladd McConkey. He looked so quick getting into his routes and then had the speed to separate on the break. He showed good hands, especially when diving flat out to make one catch. He made Kam Kinchens look silly on one 1v1 (Kinchens is very overrated though). Sometimes at Georgia it was hard to get an angle on McConkey’s ceiling but on this showing, he has everything required to be a dynamic receiver who can consistently get open and comfortably find a home in the top-50. Michigan receiver Roman Wilson also looked smooth, fast and was difficult to cover.

Baylor defensive lineman Gabe Hall is a frustrating player to talk about. He has everything you want physically and today at the Senior Bowl he just looked on a different level at times. His arm-over move was deadly. He varied his attacks, showing a push-pull and a nice sidestep too. He then took his fine play into the scrimmages, winning the first rep with a great move on a run stop. He’s always been an outstanding athlete but he isn’t consistent and doesn’t play with enough fire. The upside is huge and this was a great start for him but let’s see it every day this week.

Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson looked in control, showed great footwork and handled all of his 1v1’s brilliantly. He bossed Tyler Davis on one rep, engaging and absorbing the pressure, winning the power battle and then dumping Davis to the turf. JPJ, on this evidence, looks like a clear top-50 talent. It was a fairly faultless day for him. I also really liked LSU center Charles Turner’s performance. He kept trying to push in to get more reps. This guy loves the game, he’s athletic, he’s nasty. He’s a great talent. He kept jumping in at guard or center and stole a couple of extra reps. I’ve had him in round two for months.

Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell looked really sharp during scrimmages. He was consistently breaking on the ball, getting a hand in to break-up passes. He’s just quicker and more instinctive than your average DB and he played with a confident swagger to match the athleticism. He looked like a first round pick today. Another cornerback, Notre Dame’s Cam Hart, had sensational coverage on a route vs Tez Walker. He held position all the way on the rep, turned his head around at the right time and got an interception. Hart looked smooth, well-sized and athletic.

Regulars will know I’m a big fan of Texas A&M defensive tackle McKinley Jackson. He was too powerful for Christian Haynes, shoving him into the backfield on two 1v1 reps. Then he just drove the center deep into the pocket on his next rep. As I’ve said for a while, he’s an absolute beast. He gets his hands inside, attacks the blocks and drives interior linemen backwards. A top player who consistently manhandled opponents today.

Texas tackle Christian Jones had a bit of a slow start but then exploded into life. He’s big and athletic but his legs looks very lean. He struggled moving inside to guard, showing stiff footwork and he was too upright. He moved back to tackle after and looked a lot more comfortable, with four consecutive reps where he showed excellent footwork, agility and hand-placement — dominating his opponents. He really showed off his potential today at right tackle.

Other players who shone at various times included Missouri tackle Javon Foster showed show very impressive hand-usage, locking into blocks and finishing. He lost a rep to Alabama’s Justin Eboigbe though who was one of the winners of day one himself. It’s a shame Eboigbe doesn’t have ideal length because he has everything else in his frame to play a role quickly. He was athletic, had a good arm-over move and is well sized.

Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga looked tremendous — starting his day with an easy win against Laiatu Latu. He took away the inside-counter and just shut the rush down. He’s so powerful, so big. On a later rep he initiated initial contact and just dominated and controlled his opponent. Any time you get try to get into his body he’s just too strong and he’s agile enough to redirect and keep his feet churning. He screams top-15 pick. Washington right tackle Roger Rosengarten also enjoyed a productive first day in 1v1’s and scrimmage.

Now onto the players I thought struggled a bit. Arizona O-liner Jordan Morgan needs to shoot his hands inside better because his hand-placement was a bit wild. LaDarius Henderson the Michigan LT had a difficult first day. I think he’s more of a guard but his effort and intensity looked off. Wisconsin lineman Tanor Bortolini really struggled and Houston left tackle Patrick Paul was pushed backwards by undersized Alabama EDGE Chris Braswell, which wasn’t a good look in 1v1’s.

TCU’s Brandon Coleman didn’t look that comfortable kicking inside to guard which is a surprise. He struggled vs power and movement. He had a rep against Darius Robinson at left tackle where he looked far more comfortable and won by locking on early and finishing. He also lost a rep badly to Jordan Jefferson of LSU (who had a good day, I need to watch more of him), being drive backwards into the QB.

T’Vondre Sweat was too big at Texas and he still is.

Tight end Ben Sinnott had a couple of frustrating drops. He has better hands than he showed today.

Those were my notes — I’ll have plenty more as the week goes along.

Well, this is unexpected…

#Lions OC Ben Johnson informed the #Seahawks and #Commanders that he’s staying in Detroit, per sources.

Johnson is still only 37 and will be a hot head coaching candidate again next year. But first, he wants to take another shot at bringing a Lombardi Trophy to Detroit. pic.twitter.com/lPg2Po33sx

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 30, 2024

As we talked about earlier today, the asking price issue might’ve been a problem. Adam Schefter confirmed that after Johnson made his announcement to return to Detroit. That clarifies why he was saying, ‘not so fast’ on Johnson to Washington. It appears he asked for too much money, neither team were willing to meet his demands, and rather than come across as having made a major error on salary, his agent has convinced his client to try another cycle. That is a huge misjudgement on his behalf, I would suggest. And I’m really disappointed it means he isn’t going to come to Seattle and deliver the kind of creative, productive offense we’ve seen in Detroit.

My other reaction to this is two-fold. Firstly, if you want an offensive-minded Head Coach in Seattle, you’re down to Mike Kafka. That’s it. Secondly, if the Commanders hire Mike Macdonald, then what? The chances of Dan Quinn — or the ‘upset’ Adam Schefter spoke about — is now increasingly likely.

Here are some video thoughts:

The Seahawks will likely have a new Head Coach by the end of the week. As they reach the finish line, here are some things that I’m thinking…

— Both Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport offered ‘not so fast’ counters to the suggestion that Ben Johnson to Washington was a done deal. Initially I thought this might be the reporters ‘doing a solid’ for the Commanders, who won’t have fulfilled their Rooney Rule obligations until today’s set of interviews. Then I wondered whether it was damage limitation, with the Seahawks meeting Johnson first. Were they getting the message out to avoid looking like they missed out, if he ended up in Seattle?

I now think it might be something else. Dan Viens mentioned on his podcast recently that he’d heard from a source that Johnson might not get either job. Here’s something to note. In December, Josina Anderson tweeted that Johnson’s asking price was $15m a year. Richard Flowers III, Johnson’s agent, quote tweeted Anderson with this response:

I'm told personnel around the league are discussing their awareness that there is no asking price or demand and this tweet is 100% false and irresponsible reporting, per source. https://t.co/6RMT3GaHCU

— Richmond Flowers III (@Richmond__3) December 21, 2023

It’s hard to say what the truth is. Is it beyond the realms of possibility, though, that Johnson’s agent has overplayed his hand? Is he going to the Commanders and Seahawks, asking for a salary akin to the one likely given to Jim Harbaugh in LA, and teams are scoffing at the suggestion because — as highly rated as he is — Johnson has been an offensive coordinator for two-years and has no Head Coaching experience?

That would make sense of why Schefter is pouring cold water on the Commanders talk. At the moment, they’re too far apart on salary. Maybe it’s put them off? Remember, both teams are talking to other candidates. If, say, Mike Macdonald is in the $6-8m range and Johnson is asking for something close to $15m, it’s very easy to say ‘no chance’ to Johnson’s agent. It’s also a very difficult position to climb down from as a representative without looking like a complete fool.

Maybe Anderson’s report was ‘100% false and irresponsible’ as Flowers III suggests? Or maybe, it’s an accurate portrayal as to why — as Viens suggested — Johnson might not land either gig?

— The Seahawks got on a plane to Baltimore last night, after meeting with Johnson. My hope was that they’d strike a deal with Johnson and that would be that. This didn’t happen and perhaps what I’ve just talked about is one of the reasons why. Nevertheless, I retain hope that’s the direction they go. I’m not an X’s and O’s expert and never claim to be — but I can see creativity in Detroit, constantly challenging and asking questions of opponents and I can see major production and star playmakers being featured. That’s what I want in Seattle.

Now the Seahawks move on to Macdonald and this will be intriguing. They didn’t meet with him prior to today. They might not know much about him. This is a coordinator who’s kind of burst onto the scene. As far as I’m aware, there’s not that much crossover from Seattle to Baltimore’s front office or staff, to get a lot of feedback on Macdonald. Therefore, this could be a fascinating meeting.

I can’t decide, though, whether this is proper due diligence or serious intent to appoint Macdonald. It’d be neglectful not to speak to one of the bright young candidates in this cycle. How much of the meeting though is a fact-finding mission? To actually understand who he is, what his vision is, how he’d lead, what kind of staff he can put together and whether this relatively inexperienced coach is ready to lead a team.

I think there’d be some of that with Johnson, too.

It could probably go either way. The Seahawks being blown away enough to dive head-first into the appointment. Or, as seems to have been the case with Bobby Slowik, perhaps feeling he isn’t quite ready.

It’s worth noting that Ian Rapoport said on the NFL Network today that in his previous interviews, sources claimed he stood out in a big way and was incredibly impressive. Rapoport called Macdonald ‘the defensive Sean McVay’ and he believes he is a strong contender in Seattle. The way he spoke, it made it seem as if that could be the direction the Seahawks want to go:

From The Insiders on @NFLNetwork: The #Seahawks are interviewing Mike Macdonald today, and this is one to watch. pic.twitter.com/dGZ4WcAKft

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 30, 2024

But until it’s a done deal, you never know.

— This is why I think Dan Quinn’s name has suddenly started doing the rounds again. On Monday, Michael Shawn-Dugar and Brady Henderson both mentioned Quinn during radio hits. Hawkblogger wrote a piece on the positives with Quinn. Are there some jungle drums behind the scenes suggesting that maybe, after all, the Seahawks return to the candidate everyone assumed would take the job?

Schefter’s suggestion that it’s no sure thing pushes back on that. But there’s at least a scenario out there where Johnson potentially prices himself out and/or doesn’t make a good impression, Macdonald isn’t viewed as a viable option either and then they go with what they know. Despite some fairly generous petitioning on local radio — it would be a tremendously underwhelming appointment. I don’t think Quinn is schematically excellent. Clearly Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind and his success in San Francisco, coupled with Atlanta’s lack of success under Quinn once he took the 49ers job, suggests the real motivating factor of that Falcons Super Bowl run was the offensive leader and the MVP he produced at quarterback.

Quinn is said to be able to build a great staff but who out there, currently, fits the bill? Kellen Moore isn’t an option any more. Raheem Morris was also touted as an amazing staff builder and he went with Jimmy Lake for defensive coordinator. I kind of feel like the pool of available coaches is fairly limited and the opportunity to ‘build a great staff’ isn’t straight forward.

I’ll pass this is on and make of it what you will. Someone I trust said there’s something in this Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator talk, should Quinn get the gig. Personally I’m not a fan of that move, if true. Kelly’s offenses at Oregon relied on speed, snapping the ball quickly and keeping opponents off guard. It didn’t translate at Philadelphia and Kelly bombed in San Francisco after that. His offense was good at UCLA last season, not so good this season. This wouldn’t exactly be the brave new world of innovative football I’d hope for. But at least there’d be little chance of him being poached if he succeeds, I guess.

I also keep coming back to the fact that in the last five Super Bowls, all ten Head Coaches were offensive-minded. Do we just throw that out? How about the fact that Bill Belichick and Ron Rivera are the only two defensive coaches to make the title game since Seattle won the Super Bowl 10 years ago. Do we fight against this, think we know better, and go defense?

I do think there’s a possibility that Quinn is essentially ‘the backup option’ if for whatever reason Johnson or Macdonald aren’t the answer.

— I still think there’s a chance of a surprise. As noted yesterday, Schefter’s line about the Seahawks “pulling an upset” resonated. I think one of the other candidates they interviewed last week is still very much in the running.

They’ve travelled to meet with Johnson and Macdonald and that makes it seem like they are the two prime options. Yet that just could be needs must, given both just played at the weekend and time is of the essence with Washington competing for a similar pool of candidates.

It could be that they meet Macdonald today, go back to Seattle, consider all of the options and make a decision. That decision could be — going with someone like Mike Kafka or Ejero Eviro.

Kafka seems extremely plausible. He always has done. Jeff Simmons messages me as soon as the coaching hire search started and mentioned his name. The connection to Andy Reid and the history of developing quarterbacks will really appeal. His personality might not be electric but it’s not a million miles away from Mike McCarthy and Doug Pederson. If Seattle’s intention is to draft and develop a QB, he makes sense as an ‘upset’ candidate. And as Jeff often points out, sometimes the best Head Coaches are not the coordinators with the hot offense or defense.

He’s being touted as a potential replacement for Andy Reid when he retires. If there’s something in that thought, you can see why someone like Schneider would rate him. He had two interviews, after all, when others teams showed no interest.

It’s also possible they appoint a defensive-minded Head Coach and then try to get him out of New York to act as offensive coordinator. We’ll see. But having felt 24 hours ago that this was a two-horse race between Johnson and Macdonald — I’m not sure any more.

Either way I think we’re all ready to know now who’s replacing Carroll, after weeks of speculation and second-guessing.

You’ll have all seen by now the Adam Schefter clip from the Pat McAfee show, talking about the Seahawks and the Commanders and their coaching searches. It was initially very interesting because Schefter poured cold water on the ‘Ben Johnson to Washington is a lock’ suggestion for the second time in 24 hours. He went on to suggest it’s possible that neither of the two presumptive appointments — Johnson to Washington and Dan Quinn to Seattle — would happen.

"I'm not convinced yet that Ben Johnson is getting the Commanders job..

People think Ben Johnson is going to Washington and Dan Quinn is going to Seattle..

I will bet you at a minimum that one of those isn't right and maybe both" ~ @AdamSchefter #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/ZZwyqNaKyF

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) January 29, 2024

There’s one other thing I noticed that many people haven’t talked about. Schefter starts to talk about Seattle and how they could appoint Johnson if he doesn’t end up in Washington. Then he drops this fascinating nugget:

“Ben Johnson’s also in play in Seattle. So if he doesn’t get Washington, is he then in Seattle? Or, does Seattle pull an upset..”

Nobody seemed to pick up on that. What does Schefter mean by suggesting the Seahawks might pull an upset?

My interpretation of that is, at least in Schefter’s mind, he thinks they might do something unpredictable. I’d suggest that means not appointing one of Johnson, Quinn or Mike Macdonald.

Perhaps it keeps Mike Kafka, Patrick Graham or Ejiro Evero in the mix? Did one of them impress to the extent they are in the hunt and the Seahawks simply want to complete the process before appointing them? Is Mike Vrabel truly not under consideration?

Maybe it was just a throwaway comment from Schefter and means nothing?

Either way I think it’s interesting. When I was on KJR the day after Pete Carroll’s departure was announced, Jason Puckett made a point that has stuck with me. John Schneider loves to keep you guessing in the draft. Could he do the same here with this coaching search?

The fact the Seahawks want to speak to Johnson and Macdonald in person this week, especially given they’re travelling to them not the other way round, suggests they are the two top targets at this stage. I think that’s probably true. I just think the Schefter line about an upset is suitably intriguing enough to wonder, what if there’s a surprise in stall this week?

After all, Kafka gets glowing reviews from Andy Reid — someone Schneider clearly respects. He might want to tap into that offensive system and bring in a coach with a reputation for great QB development. Graham did an incredible job with the Raiders defense, showing he can do more with less. He’s also highly intelligent, creative and respected. Everyone speaks well of Evero’s ability to connect with players (and he was born in England, so he’s clearly a top bloke).

At least the finish line is in sight. I still hope the Seahawks meet with Johnson tonight, strike a deal and announce it quickly. I hope all the ‘not so fast’ stuff on Johnson to Washington is the Commanders saving face with a ‘yeah we were never that into you anyway’ type thing going on, having missed out on their guy.

But don’t be shocked if the unthinkable happens, either.

This week the Seahawks face their own Super Bowl. They’re playing the Washington Commanders. The prize is the opportunity to hire Ben Johnson as Head Coach.

They have to win this competition. They have to get the job done.

Mike Macdonald may well be a nice consolation prize for the loser. Let the Commanders treat their wounds with Baltimore’s defensive coordinator. The Seahawks have to go and claim first place by hiring Johnson.

Yes, Macdonald showed savviness with his half-time adjustments against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. He and the Baltimore defense limited and restricted Patrick Mahomes in the second half. Yet this was after conceding 221 yards in the first half, giving up 5/9 on third downs and losing the time of possession battle 20:39 to 09:21. Along with a poorly performing offense, they put themselves in a hole early and a team used to leading (a reminder they’d only trailed for 88 total snaps in the regular season) never looked comfortable.

Baltimore’s offense stuttered and stalled, without much creativity or inspiration. They seemed to just rely on Lamar Jackson to provide magic and it wasn’t there. It wasn’t an inspiring game-plan by offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Now contrast that to Detroit and Johnson. They went into San Francisco — the team the Seahawks have to knock-off in the division — and absolutely took the game to them. 280 first half yards, 5-7 on third down, 148 incredible rushing yards and a 24-7 lead. They were innovative, creative, had answers throughout and bossed everything from tempo to physicality and had Kyle Shanahan looking befuddled on the sideline.

The Seahawks need this.

The Lions should be in the Super Bowl. They threw it away in unbelievable fashion — none of it Johnson’s fault. A dropped fourth-down conversion, a botched interception leading to a huge explosive catch, a fumble, another drop from Josh Reynolds, the blown opportunity to pin the 49ers on their goal-line from a punt, a missed sack opportunity — it all combined to create one of the worst quarters of football of the season and wreck Detroit’s night. Dan Campbell acted like a gambler chasing lost bets with his decision making. It’s his style to be aggressive, OK, but situational football is huge. When you’re leading by 17 points at half-time, I’d suggest you don’t need to be ultra-aggressive.

It doesn’t change anything, though, about the creativity and innovation of Detroit’s offense. Johnson put on a show when he was given the chance to. They should’ve won this game. 442 yards of offense, 6/12 on third downs, 182 rushing yards. That’s winning football.

John Schneider must put his best game-plan together, get on the plane to Detroit and deliver the sales pitch to end all sales pitches. He has to explain that Seattle’s skill players can create an easy transition, with a quarterback in Geno Smith who can mimic Jared Goff. He has to promise to do whatever it takes to improve the offensive line and plan ahead at quarterback. He has to say money is no object for a support-staff — landing whoever Johnson wants for his coordinators, or going out and landing Ejero Eviro or Patrick Graham from Carolina or Vegas — with the promise of hefty salaries and Assistant Head Coaching titles. He should extoll the benefits of working with an experienced GM and ownership group. He needs to sell the Pacific North West and the great facilities in Seattle.

This is what the Seahawks need. Rightly or wrongly, they have been built to play this style of football. Offensive-led, making the most of your weapons. They’ve invested major salaries in Smith, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Premium picks have been spent on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks are far closer to emulating the Lions than they are the Ravens. How do you even begin to copy Baltimore? Spend the next couple of years rebuilding the defense? Find a quarterback like Jackson that means you rarely have to play from behind? Adopt ‘what is a Raven’ to your personnel decisions?

Not to mention, who’s Mike Macdonald’s offensive coordinator? Are you bringing in Mike Kafka from the Giants? Can he do what Johnson did tonight? Do you have confidence in Kafka to be the lead-man on offense and produce what is required? Co-operating with a Head Coach he has no prior relationship with, or any shared DNA? If it’s not Kafka, who is it?

The shortest path to glory for Seattle is to bring in the coach who turned the Lions offense from the 29th best to the 5th best with the same personnel. The man who can finally get so much more out of the Seahawks’ receivers, tight ends and running backs. The man who, until Detroit’s epic third-quarter collapse, was guiding his team to the Super Bowl.

Get some help up front — in the draft or free agency. Two of Detroit’s guards are free agents and you have the #16 pick and two third rounders in a really strong O-line class. Put a complementary defense on the field, as Detroit has done.

Why can’t that work? Isn’t that easier than trying to mimic the Ravens? How long will that take?

I suspect Macdonald will be Seattle’s guy. I think there’s plenty of smoke and a sizeable fire over the reports connecting Johnson to Washington GM Adam Peters and a plan to work together. I’m intrigued to see how it’ll play out if Macdonald is the man to replace Pete Carroll and it’ll be an interesting new chapter for the franchise. I also appreciate and respect fans who choose not to have a horse in the race and are kind of ready for either option and the process to end. I get that.

If there’s a hint of a chance though to get Johnson — I think that is better for the team and they should do whatever needs to be done. Go big-game hunting and land the top prize. It’s time to win your Super Bowl this week and make Ben Johnson Seattle’s next Head Coach. Super-charge this offense. In the last five Super Bowls, every coach has been offensive-minded. Go into Santa Clara and repeat what we saw tonight. Just without the third-quarter meltdown, next time.

With Detroit and Baltimore having their seasons ended on Sunday, the Seahawks and Commanders will likely appoint new coaches this week. Time for one last blast of ‘Always Compete’. Go and get Johnson.

Robbie, Adam and I will be doing a live stream at 3pm PT. We’ll be discussing the news today that it appears the Seahawks are down to two candidates. They intend to meet with Ben Johnson in Detroit this week. They’ll also meet with Mike Macdonald, unless the Ravens reach the Super Bowl. In that case, they’ll be prepared to wait for him if needed.

Join in via the live chat and we’ll see you there!

Let me be clear, I’m a fan of Mike Macdonald’s. He speaks with a real authority during interviews and there are no wasted words. He’s succinct, his messaging is clear and there’s no doubt he’s a good communicator without needing to speak like Mel Gibson in Braveheart.

You can see he’s having a positive impact on a Ravens defense that ranked #1 per DVOA. Baltimore became the first defense in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed, sacks and turnovers this season. Macdonald absolutely is the kind of candidate the Seahawks should be talking to, picking his brains, seeing what his broader vision is and considering whether or not he should be the Head Coach for the next era of this franchise.

But I’ve noticed in recent days that Seahawks fans and media have started to go a bit too far. Macdonald’s reputation is taking on a life of its own. I’ve seen the words ‘defensive wunderkind’ used. People are saying he’s the antidote to ‘McShanahan’. Really? As we’ll see, the statistical evidence doesn’t back that up. All the while it’s being ignored that the structure of the Ravens, crafted over two decades, has enabled coordinators to be swapped in and out with little drop-off in performance.

Did you know that in the last 27 seasons, the Ravens have been the #1 ranked defense per DVOA five times and they were ranked in the top-10 every year between 1999 and 2011? There’s been a consistent run of success, irrespective of who the defensive coordinator is.

It’s also pretty clear that the Ravens benefit from having the NFL MVP quarterbacking their team. Lamar Jackson has been a revelation this season, earning a 90.9 PFF grade. We’ll come on to just how effective Baltimore’s offense has been in a moment — because it’s helped the defense in a way that has to be seen to be believed.

Firstly though, let’s fact-check some things about Macdonald and his ability to push back against Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.

Here’s how Baltimore’s defense faired against the Rams:

— 410 total yards conceded
— 6/16 third down
— 31 points conceded
— 128 rushing yards
— 34:35 TOP
— Zero turnovers

This was a game played in Baltimore, won in overtime 37-31 thanks to a kick-return walk-off touchdown. The Rams really should’ve won this game, despite a fairly typical offensive performance from Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense (449 total yards).

Baltimore’s defense and their inability to get an angle on McVay and Matt Stafford almost cost them a win and contributed very little to a victory spurred by the offense and special teams.

Now let’s look at Baltimore’s impressive 33-19 win against the 49ers and how they handled Shanahan’s offense:

— 429 total yards conceded
— 6/14 third down
— 121 rushing yards
— 6.7 yards per rush

Again, it’s not exactly a reassuring set of statistics. These are the kind of stat-lines we’ve come to expect from the Seahawks against the Rams and Niners.

Baltimore won the game in Santa Clara mainly due to four Brock Purdy interceptions. You can watch them all by clicking here. Two are bad Purdy mistakes, two involve a large slice of turnover luck:

Interception #1 — A bad read from Purdy, not doing enough to hold Kyle Hamilton away from the intended target and throwing into a dangerously tight window that was easy to undercut.

Interception #2 — A batted pass at the LOS which wildly lands right into the hands of another pass rusher at the opposite end of the line.

Interception #3 — Purdy does his best Russell Wilson impression to scramble away from trouble, throws into tight 1v1 coverage and the ball is deflected up into the air and picked off on the rebound by another Ravens defender.

Interception #4 — An inaccurate throw by Purdy going to Christian McCaffrey, right into the hands of a grateful Patrick Queen.

To be fair, the Ravens’ defense was flying around all night and that no doubt flustered Purdy and led to mistakes. It should be acknowledged, though, that Shanahan moved the ball pretty much at will in the game and avoidable turnovers cost San Francisco. Lamar Jackson was also superb on the night.

Now let’s look at some other examples. The Ravens hammered the Dolphins a few weeks ago 56-19. I’ve seen this game used as an example of a Shanahan disciple in Mike McDaniel being ‘shut down’ by the Ravens’ defense. Miami still recorded 375 total yards and ran for 154. They were 6/15 on third downs. Why did the Ravens blow them away? Lamar Jackson. He had five touchdowns passes, over 350 total yards and was a relentless scoring machine. The scoreboard pressure applied was immense. McDaniel and his Shanahan-esque offense, though, still moved the ball.

The two teams also played in 2022, with Miami winning 42-38 in Baltimore. McDaniel’s offense produced 547 total yards, were 7/11 on third downs and Tua Tagovailoa had six touchdown passes. Again, there was very little pushback against the Shanahan scheme.

Remember when the Seahawks beat the Browns this season? Two weeks later, that same Cleveland team went to Baltimore and beat the Ravens 33-31 with a barely healthy Deshaun Watson limping around at quarterback. They won by running for 178 yards and going 8/16 on third downs.

There’s a bit of a common theme here — the Ravens not defending the run very well. They gave up 4.5 YPC on the season, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league.

None of this really speaks to a formula that can consistently shut down the 49ers and Rams.

Now in fairness, over the course of the season Baltimore’s opponent third-down conversion rate (36.26%) ranked sixth best in the league. As we see above though, they weren’t too clever against the Shanahan/McVay systems in this area.

It’s also a lot easier to play great defense when your offense stacks up points, applies weekly scoreboard pressure and can tee-off. That is what the Ravens do because of the brilliance of Lamar Jackson.

Curtis Allen pulled out a great statistic to highlight this advantage for Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens’ defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They barely played any time at all without a lead, in the entire 2023 season. Baltimore’s offense ranked top-five in first, second and third quarter scoring as well as time of possession. They had 193 snaps when tied to go with the 88 when trailing, compared to the defense playing 831 snaps when ahead. This is unprecedented.

Now, maybe it’s possible for the Seahawks to similarly create an offense that can achieve all of this, rank fourth in DVOA and produce the NFL MVP in 2024 or beyond? Until that happens though, you won’t be creating the kind of environment where Macdonald’s defense thrived this season.

A shout-out too to blog commenter Peter who highlighted another statistic of note. From 2003-2023, the Ravens have only had four seasons where they didn’t rank in the top-10 for defensive points allowed. Within that 20-year span, they were in the top-five 14 times. Since Lamar Jackson was drafted, there’s only been one season where the defense didn’t rank in the top-five in points allowed — and that was a year where he only played 12 games.

There are two things to take from this. Firstly, we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of having a phenomenal quarterback who helps the Ravens score points quickly with explosive plays, manages the offense like a more traditional QB when required yet can also be an incredible playmaker as a runner. Jackson is basically what everyone hoped Michael Vick would be, and then some. He’s going to be a two-time NFL MVP in a few weeks and possibly a Super Bowl winner. If he wins a ring, he’ll be on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

Secondly, the Ravens have done a tremendous job building a defense whoever the coordinator is. From Rex Ryan to Chuck Pagano to Dean Pees to Wink Martindale and now Mike Macdonald. They’ve all enjoyed success. Yet aside from Ryan’s fleeting purple patch with the Jets, neither he nor Pagano enjoyed lasting glory as a Head Coach. Let’s put it this way, if Macdonald departs Baltimore — it’ll be a safe bet that their defense will continue to excel.

The Ravens are a unique animal. We should probably talk about this more. They haven’t always been an amazing team — but they have consistently been able to build a roster that fits a certain style and image. Ozzie Newsome was the architect of identifying ‘what is a Raven?’ and his chosen heir — Eric DeCosta — has carried it on. The results speak for themselves.

This has enabled Baltimore to consistently produce a strong defensive brand of football, a running game and they’ve done a good job drafting for the quarterback position (Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl as the 18th pick in round one, Jackson may win one as a former 32nd overall pick).

That’s not to take anything away from the coordinators, who still need to bring everything together. The point is though, there are a lot of moving parts within the greater Baltimore machine. Can you plausibly take one part of that machine, have it shipped to Seattle and transfer the successful formula? Can anyone truly copy ‘what it means to be a Raven’ and apply it to their own structure? Or do you have to try and work out your own style and identity?

Not enough time has been spent wondering if Macdonald is a system coordinator, ideally suited to working within the structure he’s been brought up in. That might sound harsh but it’s an inconvenient topic we should broach if he’s going to lead the next era of Seahawks football. Can you take him out of Baltimore and transfer it to Seattle with the players and situation he will inherit? Or is he a young coach working in an ideal environment to succeed, with everything in place — a great front office making excellent personnel decisions, an experienced Head Coach and staff in support, a brilliant quarterback aiding the defense by scoring so many points. It’ll be different in Seattle.

This warrants some contemplation, yet at the moment the feeling around Macdonald is more one of wanting the trendy new, young coordinator on the team who is doing well without really digging into whether this is a Macdonald thing, a Ravens thing, a Lamar thing or — most likely — a bit of everything.

Then there’s another dilemma to consider. Who’s going to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator? This is a key question. The Seahawks will not become a great team without the right caliber of play-caller and quarterback for the long haul.

Robert Saleh was similar to Macdonald a few years ago — a trendy young coordinator hire who benefitted a lot from the Shanahan offense and stars on defense. Once he was given the main job, what happened? His defensive output translated but very little else has. The Jets have a good defense every year but they’re hopeless on offense. They’ve fired one offensive coordinator, seen a quarterback drafted #2 overall bust, ended up trading for Aaron Rodgers and they’re going to spend the next off-season scrambling to put a functioning offense together.

The Seahawks will do well to be as dysfunctional as the Jets and they have better pieces on offense. But it goes to show that a team, even with a good defense, tend to only be as good as the offensive play-caller and quarterback. After all, it’s not just the Jets. The Patriots, Raiders and Jaguars all ranked in the top-10 for defense per DVOA. All struggled on offense and had disastrous seasons.

It’s also worth noting, interestingly, that nine of the 13 highest ranked defenses started last season without a defensive-minded Head Coach. Only three of the 13 highest ranked offenses had a non-offensive mind in charge.

Macdonald has only ever worked for the Harbaugh’s in Michigan and Baltimore. What is his contact list like? How is he going to compete with Jim Harbaugh as he puts a staff together in LA? Who can he take from Baltimore, given John Harbaugh will likely seek to promote from within if he loses his defensive coordinator?

Is the plan to try and coax Mike Kafka to ask for his release from the Giants to be offensive coordinator? I guess that might work. Maybe. But if it’s not him, what are the other options? At a time when Shane Waldron was snapped off the market straight away, Kliff Kingsbury is getting a good look by multiple teams and Chip Kelly’s name is seriously doing the rounds — there aren’t many good options to bring in as a coordinator. If you find someone who succeeds, you also run the risk of losing them straight away and having to go through the whole process again.

I’ll say it again — this isn’t something that ever seems to get talked about amid all the ‘get Macdonald to Seattle pronto’ chatter online.

The situation won’t be helped, either, by the fact the Seahawks have to wait until February 12th to even have an introductory meeting with Macdonald. That’s a long time to wait to find out how much shared interest there is in the position, whether visions mesh and whether you think this is the right direction to take. By the time the Super Bowl has finished, are you left sifting through the remaining available staff? What if the Ravens lose the Super Bowl if they get there and he has a change of heart and opts to stay put to finish the job?

All of this probably sounds like I’m anti-hiring Macdonald. Again, I’m not. I feel like I have to talk about these things because nobody else seems to want to. I think he comes across well, his players are clearly very organised, the Ravens might win the Super Bowl and he would’ve played a key role in that.

However — all of the context above in this article also matters.

My preference has been the same from the moment Pete Carroll was fired. Rightly or wrongly, the Seahawks have built their team around offensive skill players. They’ve paid the likes of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett huge salaries, they’ve used high picks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet and if Geno Smith is retained, he’ll possibly be earning $31.2m next year.

Rather than say, ‘well the offense is fine, find a defensive coach’ — I’d rather focus on maxing out the production of the weapons you have. The Seahawks should be getting more out of the likes of Metcalf. They should be trying to do what the Ravens are doing — outscore opponents and apply pressure. They have the personnel to do it.

We’ve seen how Metcalf and co. underachieved under a defensive Head Coach. I want to see the kind of production Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are enjoying in Detroit. We’ve tried the defensive route for the last few years, isn’t it time to try something else?

Whether we want to accept it or not, the Seahawks are far closer to the Lions than the Ravens. They have the weapons, they don’t have a great defense. The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to try and emulate the Lions by being an offense-driven team with a complementary defense. If Detroit can parlay that into a legit run at the Super Bowl, there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t.

I’m hoping all of the talk about Ben Johnson being ‘a done deal’ to the Commanders is inaccurate and there’s still a card to be played by John Schneider and the Seahawks this week. If there is, they should push all of their chips into the middle of the table and play that card. Get Johnson in Seattle, set him the task of turning the Seahawks’ offense into the Lions and then go and get a defensive coordinator to help support him. Offer Ejiro Evero or Patrick Graham a pay rise and an Assistant Head Coach title to make it happen. This, to me, would be the best decision based on the current state of the Seahawks’ roster, with the intention of resetting in a new direction quickly with the intention of being more than a team that muddles around making up the playoff numbers.

And before anyone says anything about Detroit’s offensive line — both of their guards are free agents. Go get them.

I don’t think any defensive-minded Head Coach is coming in to ‘limit’ Shanahan and McVay without a significant period of transformative work to the roster, including being bad enough to one day draft a blue-chip talent. I think the best thing to do is square-up to your two division opponents and try to outscore them.

Ben Johnson, to me, has always been the home-run hire. If it’s simply not possible to get him and the Seahawks pivot to Macdonald, fine. But let’s at least be honest about what that means.

Amid the fear of an underwhelming appointment that may or may not be coming next week in Seattle, I do think one thing is pretty clear. John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. I think whatever happens with the appointment of a Head Coach, adding a new QB is going to be a priority, together with pairing the player with a strong developer of quarterbacks in one form or another.

Schneider’s lukewarm assessment of Geno Smith at his press conference was a major shift in energy from Pete Carroll’s unwavering support. With the team facing a cap-crunch this off-season, and with a degree of resetting required post-Carroll, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility they’ll just move on from Smith. Especially if they can’t work out a way to lower his $31.2m cap hit in 2024.

It’ll all come down to how Schneider feels about this class of quarterbacks. There are six prominent ones, who could all go in the top-50. The top-three of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye (who’s a bit overrated) will likely go in the top-10. After that, it’s a fluid situation. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy find a home in round one — with plenty of QB-desperate teams — or see any of them last into day two.

I do think at #16 they Seahawks will have options. If Schneider likes someone outside of the ‘big three’ he should be able to land them one way or another, even if it involves some movement. In this latest mock, I want to represent that possibility. It’s a two-round mock. Obviously the Seahawks don’t start with a second rounder but there are trades involved, so scroll down to find out what happens (with a full explanation after the mock).

Round One

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Williams will be the top pick and Chicago would be mad to trade out of this spot. In this scenario, they move Justin Fields to another team — Atlanta perhaps?

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
I think Daniels is the clear QB2 in the draft and with Lamar Jackson set to win MVP and potentially the Super Bowl, there’ll be little reason for the Commanders not to be inspired by their near neighbours in Baltimore and take Daniels.

#3 New England — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
Pass on Drake Maye? Yes. There will be mixed opinions on Maye. The Patriots instead decide to select the best overall talent in the draft, then trade back into round one later to get their QB.

#4 Arizona — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Odunze might be the safest pick in the draft. A++ character, body control, speed, hands, consistency and professionalism.

#5 LA Chargers — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The ideal pick for Jim Harbaugh and his offense.

#6 NY Giants — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
As mentioned, Maye is going to be a lot more polarising than people realise. Some teams will really like him, others will be less enthused. But he’ll go in the top-10.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I think he’s similar to A.J. Brown. Time to rectify an all-time error by the Titans.

#8 Atlanta — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals took him at #4. He’s the complete pass rusher.

#9 Chicago — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
In terms of quickness and bend off the edge, Robinson is off the charts. He’d create an incredible double-threat with Montez Sweat.

#10 NY Jets — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
Every time I watched him I was wowed. He’s incredibly light on his feet for his size but still packs a punch.

#11 Minnesota — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
I think he’s a bit overrated, his frame worries me and he’s not as electric to make up for it as Chop Robinson. Still, the league needs pass rushers.

#12 Denver — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
Incredible talent. As with Guyton, he’s so light on his feet despite his massive size. They are both brilliant prospects.

#13 Las Vegas — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
There’s nothing graceful about Fuaga. He’s a beast. He’ll line-up and hammer you.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I think he’s overrated by draft Twitter. All of the physical tools are there but he’s far from the finished product and needs plenty of technical work.

#15 Indianapolis — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
A fun person with great character and his coverage skills are very impressive. I’m not sure any of the CB class deserves to go this early but it’s a premium position.

#16 Green Bay (v/SEA) — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I think he’s too tall and I was always left wanting more but the rush on tackles forces Green Bay to leap up to ensure they don’t miss out.

#17 Jacksonville — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
He is factory-built to play the position, with minimal body-fat despite his enormous size. His potential is through the roof but he needs to stay on the field.

#18 Cincinnati — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
Technically very gifted and he uses his hands well but he’ll need to be strong at the POA and there are some medical concerns to check out.

#19 LA Rams — Troy Fautanu (G, Washington)
The Rams can bring him in and try him at tackle or guard.

#20 Pittsburgh — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
I get the sense he will have a great draft season and elevate up the board due to his natural talent. He’s so much more dynamic than Kenny Pickett and has a Steelers swag to his personality.

#21 Miami — Graham Barton (C, Duke)
A great blocker who may be unspectacular as a pro but he’ll play for a long time, probably at guard or center.

#22 Philadelphia — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
They desperately need more in the secondary.

#23 Houston (V/CLE) — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
I like him based on physical tools and potential but he’s undersized, kind of maxed out and he played in bursts in 2023 — he wasn’t a week-to-week dominant force. Testing will put him in round one though.

#24 Dallas — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
I think he’ll be dinged for his size and length but there’s no doubting his impact and ability to disrupt.

#25 Seattle (v/GB) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
I just get the sense John Schneider is set on drafting a quarterback. After trading down, he takes the plunge. Schneider was enamoured with the arm strength of Mahomes and Allen and Penix Jr, despite having flaws, has similar arm talent.

#26 Las Vegas Raiders (v/TB) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Fearing they’ll miss out on the QB’s, the Raiders move up to secure Nix — who feels like a player who could go either way in his pro-career.

#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Bralen Trice (DE, Washington)
Once Trice tests well at his size, he’ll get a lot more buzz in this range.

#28 Buffalo — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
Legette has the frame and his speed to be special, especially if Josh Allen is his quarterback.

#29 Kansas City — Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)
He’s such a technically gifted player, I think he’ll go earlier than many think.

#30 Detroit — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
It’s the position on defense they need to address the most.

#31 San Francisco — Cooper DeJean (S, Iowa)
A versatile chess-piece of a defender who will test well at the combine.

#32 New England (v/BAL) — J.J. McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Patriots trade back into the first round to take McCarthy.

Round Two

#33 Carolina — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
#34 Baltimore (v/NE) — Kool-aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
#35 Arizona — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
#36 Washington — Jordan Morgan (G, Arizona)
#37 LA Chargers — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
#38 Tennessee — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#39 NY Giants — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
#40 Washington (v/CHI) — Patrick Paul (T, Houston)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
#42 Minnesota — McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
#43 Atlanta — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#44 Tampa Bay (v/LV) — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
#46 Indianapolis — Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Brandon Coleman (G, TCU)
#48 Jacksonville — Chris Braswell (DE, Alabama)
#49 Cincinnati — Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
#51 Pittsburgh — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#52 LA Rams — Jonah Elliss (DE, Utah)
#53 Philadelphia — Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)
#54 Cleveland — Tez Walker (WR, North Carolina)
#55 Miami — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
#56 Dallas — Charles Turner (C, LSU)
#57 Tampa Bay — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#58 Seattle (v/GB) — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#59 Houston — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#60 Buffalo — Kalen King (CB, Penn State)
#61 Kansas City — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#62 Detroit — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#63 San Francisco — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#64 Baltimore — Christian Haynes (G, Connecticut)

The trades explained

Green Bay trades with the Seahawks in round one
The Packers want to move up and secure one of the top offensive tackles, so lean on their relationships in Seattle to move up nine spots. Per the trade chart, the Packers would owe 280 points. They have two second round picks so give the Seahawks #57 (330 points) and Seattle in turn gives Green Bay their fourth rounder, pick #118 (56 points).

The Raiders trade back into round one with Tampa Bay
Las Vegas needs a quarterback and having bolstered their line with their top pick, they move back into round one to get a QB. This costs them approximately 240 points according to the trade chart, so they give the Buccs their third rounder at #77 (205 points) and their fifth rounder at #148 (31.8 points).

The Patriots also trade back into round one for a quarterback
New England opts to take Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and wait on the quarterbacks, pouncing to tap into the Michigan QB pipeline again for J.J. McCarthy. They do a deal with Baltimore, moving from #34 to #32 to get the fifth year option. The jump of two picks costs them a fifth rounder (#137).

Thoughts on Seattle’s two picks

Firstly, the trade. I think the lack of depth beyond round three in this class — given all the players who stayed in school — makes a trade down like this with Green Bay appealing. It suits both parties because the Packers have two second rounders and might want to be aggressive to secure a franchise offensive tackle for Jordan Love. For the Seahawks, they get back into round two.

As noted earlier, I think Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. So why Michael Penix Jr, given in this scenario he trades down and QB’s #4-6 are all still available? The medical checks are important but Penix Jr ticks a lot of boxes for Schneider. Firstly, the arm talent is right up there with Mahomes/Allen who he previously rated highly. Penix Jr helped elevate his team to contender status and has a ton of starting experience in college, two things he’s often payed attention to. Schneider’s background is Green Bay and a big-play, gunslinger style of football — not methodical dinking and dunking. What Penix Jr lacks in subtlety and intermediate precision, he makes up for with dynamic power to thread the ball into tight windows downfield for key explosives.

Some teams will turn their noses up at Penix Jr and I maintain he could go anywhere from rounds one to three. It’s not just the injuries — it’s the inconsistent streak he had in the middle of the 2023 season, the pre-determined nature of the offense and being left-handed is a bigger issue than many realise. I do think, however, Schneider will see the appeal here provided he gets a full medical green light. In the right system, he also might be able to compete to start quickly.

Getting back into the late second round is also important for Seattle given their lack of cap space and multiple needs. I have them selecting Payton Wilson, who I’m a big fan of. As with Penix Jr, medical checks will be key. He’s stayed healthy for the last two seasons which is reassuring. Plenty of people won’t like the two picks due to the medical issues associated with both players’ history. Yet Wilson and Penix Jr present rare opportunities to get elite skills (Penix Jr — arm strength, Wilson — remarkable speed/pursuit/motor). I wrote more about Wilson in my horizontal board piece recently and have him graded as a blue-chip player. Here’s a recap:

Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.

He’d be ideal to place next to Jordyn Brooks (or someone cheaper) as a roaming playmaker who could quickly establish himself as one of the leagues best.

You tell me what you see from Wilson…

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section (just keep it civil)…

The day after Pete Carroll was fired, I appeared on Puck and Jim on KJR. Jason Puckett brought up a point that I’ve since heard in a couple of other places. John Schneider is known for being unpredictable in the draft. Could the same thing happen with his first Head Coaching appointment?

Initially it was difficult to imagine who that could be. Then the names started to come in, including a few most people hadn’t anticipated. Mike Kafka was on the list of interviewees and he’s since been invited for an in-person meeting this week.

Making him Pete Carroll’s replacement wouldn’t be any more surprising than, say, Patrick Graham or Ejiro Evero. Yet very few people talk about Kafka. He’s the one guy everyone overlooks. He’s an afterthought. I think there’s at least a chance if Schneider is going to pull off a shock, this could be his guy.

He’s not the most charismatic individual. He seems quite low-key, similar to Doug Pederson in that regard. In a recent interview on KJR, a New York based journalist told a story about how Kafka’s own mother, during an interview, referred to him as boring. Yet he’s had something of a meteoric rise through the coaching ranks after a journeyman playing career.

Here’s a quick recap. A former fourth round pick by the Andy Reid-led Eagles, he bounced around six different teams before trying his hand at coaching at alma mater Northwestern. It’s there he decided to commit to a coaching career and after a year, he hooked up with Reid in Kansas City, taking on the role of offensive quality control coach. A year later, in 2018, he was promoted to quarterbacks coach — working with a certain first-year starter called Patrick Mahomes.

After two seasons he added the title ‘passing game coordinator’ and he began to gain buzz around the media as a highly thought of lieutenant of Reid’s. He was also being touted as the heir apparent to Eric Bieniemy, should he be offered a job as a Head Coach. That never happened — so Kafka took the plunge in 2022 to move to New York and reconnect with Brian Daboll, who coached him during a stint in New England. Funnily enough, a year later Bieniemy moved on himself. You have to wonder how vaunted Kafka would be right now if he’d just waited one more year with the Chiefs and replaced Bieniemy.

With the Giants, he called plays (likely a promise that lured him to New York). However, Kafka was a victim of what is appearing to be an increasingly toxic environment under Daboll’s leadership as this article explains:

Daboll “constantly second-guessed” Kafka’s play calls, according to the report. That characterization isn’t a surprise based on conversations with team sources.

The Daily News also reported that Daboll took play calling away from Kafka “multiple times” during the season and even gave those duties to quarterback coach Shea Tierney in the second half of the Giants’ 49-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. I haven’t been able to confirm that, but a league source indicated Daboll took play-calling duties away from Kafka during the second half of a blowout loss midway through the season, and the Dallas game fits that description.

The New York Post published a story Tuesday that pushed back on aspects of the Daily News report (tabloid wars are fun!). The Post story made no mention of the play-calling situation, which is interesting since that’s the most sensitive topic from the Daily News story.

So, what does this all mean? The Giants are operating under the “expectation,” to use Daboll’s word from the day after the season ended, that Kafka will remain as offensive coordinator. But Kafka is a candidate for the Tennessee Titans’ and Seattle Seahawks’ head-coaching vacancies.

Kafka is a long shot for a head-coaching job, but it’s still possible he’ll leave the Giants this offseason. The Giants can block interviews for a lateral move, but if another team wants Kafka as OC and he’s interested in the opportunity, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s granted permission. So there’s still a chance Daboll will replace all three coordinators this offseason.

It all sounds fairly nightmarish and not exactly the platform to launch a Head Coaching career. Indeed if it’s possible Kafka could ask to be released from his contract, it’s not improbable the Seahawks are open to bringing him in as an offensive coordinator and that’s one of the reasons they want to further meet with him. This is a way to converse, when otherwise the Giants could block any request.

There are reasons, though, why the Seahawks might consider Kafka for the top job.

Firstly, Schneider respects Andy Reid. There’s a lot of love for Reid among the current and former Green Bay contingent, which Reid is part of (having worked for the Packers between 1992-98 before joining the Eagles). Kafka has been getting a seal of approval from Reid, who vouched for him when he was runner up for the Cardinals job a year ago:

Andy Reid said he endorsed Mike Kafka to Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell. "He’s a very intelligent, great human being,” Reid said. “The quarterback will love him. He’ll challenge him to be better than he even is now. But he’ll do a great job.'' Kafka worked for Reid in K.C.

— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz) February 7, 2023

He also had this to say about Kafka a year ago:

“He’d do a great job as a head coach. He’s good with people, and he’s smart. He’d be good with the ownership and good with players, too. Still be able to relate to the players. And you know, he’s young enough to where it wasn’t that long ago that he was playing.”

Let’s consider what we know here. Kafka worked for Reid and has likely adopted his offensive approach and philosophy. He has been praised for his role in the development of Patrick Mahomes. He’s described as a good person with high intelligence.

At least initially, Daboll also offered plenty of praise:

When asked recently why he hired Kafka, Daboll said it was because Kafka had good presence in his coordinator interview, handling the room well. He could tell Kafka would be a good teammate. He could also tell Kafka was smart.

He might not fit the mould of a Dan Campbell type leader — and his press conferences, it has to be said, can be positively sleep-inducing. However, we don’t actually know what Schneider is looking for.

There’s at least some thought, as I noted in my horizontal board piece, that this is going to be a very different Seahawks moving forward. Schneider’s vision could be offense-orientated. Appointing a coach steeped in an ideology you like with a track record for developing QB’s, having worked for Andy Reid and mentored Patrick Mahomes — that could be appealing to Schneider. Begin drafting quarterbacks until you get the guy, then pair the coach and signal-caller together and make that the identity of the team.

That feels very Green Bay, very Andy Reid and, I guess, very John Schneider.

It won’t be the most inspiring direction but it does feel left-field and, to some degree, plausible. I don’t think Schneider is committed to Geno Smith at all. I’ll just copy and paste my thoughts from the horizontal board article:

I think John Schneider is itching to take a quarterback. I’m just trying to work out what I think that means. In Green Bay, they would take them frequently. Schneider hasn’t done that but was it a decision influenced by Pete Carroll? Could we now start to see Schneider taking shots at the position, until he gets ‘the guy’?

For that reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a chance on someone at #16. Rightly or wrongly. Can I see Schneider believing the physical qualities of Nix or Penix Jr are worth rolling the dice on in the middle of round one? Maybe.

After all, he reportedly was willing to draft Andy Dalton in round one in 2011. Here’s an article from Danny O’Neil, reflecting on what happened:

The Seahawks very much considered choosing Dalton with the 25th pick of the 2011 draft. In fact, there were rumors his name was written on a draft card that never turned in…

Now, before we continue it’s important to offer a few qualifiers. The information that forms the basis from this story comes from multiple sources who were actually present in Seattle’s draft room during the two years in question. It does not, however, come from Schneider, and that’s important to disclose because not only does he figure so prominently in the storyline, but he is adamant about avoiding giving any one person credit for a team’s selection. That’s the way he has been since the day he was introduced as Seattle’s general manager in 2010.

Dalton was a serious consideration in the first round for Seattle. In fact, Schneider advocated for that selection. The issue was one of consensus. Specifically, Schneider didn’t want to force his conviction on a player on the rest of the scouting department and the entire franchise.

This wasn’t about who has the final say, either. Schneider runs Seattle’s draft. The question was how he would run it, and he has never wanted a front office in which his voice is the only one that makes the decisions.

This is a really important piece of information. Schneider is now in charge of decision making at all levels. It’s not unrealistic to think that left to his own devices, Schneider would’ve taken Dalton. Now, is he going to be emboldened to make that call?

Dalton played in an extreme spread, four-verticals heavy offense at TCU. It was user-friendly. He played very well in college but not in a jaw-dropping way. Schneider liked him. Could he feel similarly about, say, Bo Nix at #16? I wouldn’t rule it out even if I think he’s a day-two pick.

Schneider’s answer when asked about Geno Smith last week was extremely lukewarm and offered no hint of commitment. Could he just outright move on, with the intention of proceeding with Drew Lock as a safety-net and someone taken at #16 as the way forward? I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility.

Let’s imagine a scenario where the Seahawks cut Geno Smith to save money with the intention of drafting a quarterback, potentially to start quickly. If Schneider is convinced Kafka is a great developer of quarterbacks, he might want to pair him with the younger player. If you can land a talented defensive coordinator and build a quality staff around Kafka, you might’ve set up something akin to a younger version of Andy Reid’s operation.

At the end of the day, they’re talking to Kafka about replacing Pete Carroll. He has to at least be in the running. Is it possible they snub some of the bigger names and pluck Kafka out of the Giants, challenging him to do with a younger QB what he did with Mahomes?

It’s worth thinking about.

And as Jeff Simmons has been quick to point out — it’s not always the highly successful coordinators who make the best Head Coaches. Kafka might not be the most outwardly exciting candidate — but that doesn’t mean he’s not up to the job.

In the last few days I’ve gone and forth on what might be going on here. There are some facts to consider. The Seahawks won’t have fulfilled the Rooney Rule until they interview Ejiro Evero on Saturday. As of today, they have not set up a second interview for next week with Ben Johnson. A lot of people in the media are going back to Dan Quinn being the ‘clubhouse leader’ while others continue to suggest that isn’t the case. They never arranged a second interview with Bobby Slowik or Frank Smith.

It’d be a lot more reassuring, at least for those of us hoping there’s still a chance of Ben Johnson coming to Seattle, if a second interview was announced. He’s due in Washington on Tuesday. The fear has to be that they won’t let him out of the building without a deal, thus leaving the Seahawks to pick from the people they interviewed this week or wait until February 12th to speak to Mike Macdonald.

Adam Schefter is saying the Seahawks and Commanders want to wait until after the conference Championship games to proceed. Mike Holmgren has also said he thinks John Schneider would like to appoint Ben Johnson if he can. You do wonder, if the Lions lose and the Ravens win this weekend, whether the two teams remaining with vacancies will make a big push to employ Johnson. It seems pretty clear the Commanders have the upper hand given all the talk about a relationship with GM Adam Peters and the fact he already has an interview booked in for Tuesday. It still seems somewhat fanciful that the Seahawks would wait until mid-February to even have an initial conversation with Macdonald. So perhaps next week is key. Can they persuade Johnson not to go to Washington? Or do they resort to Plan B, from the list of candidates they have been interviewing?