Following a week of taking stock, reports are revealing who the Seahawks want to speak to about replacing Pete Carroll.
They’ve requested interviews with the following:
Frank Smith (OC, Miami) Dan Quinn (DC, Dallas) Ejiro Eviro (DC, Carolina) Raheem Morris (DC, LA Rams) Mike Kafka (OC, NY Giants) Patrick Graham (DC, Las Vegas)
If any new names are reported I’ll add them to the list and update my thoughts below.
Frank Smith (OC, Miami)
He isn’t from the Kyle Shanahan tree even though he joined up with Mike McDaniel in Miami. He spent a number of years acting as an assistant O-line coach under Sean Payton in New Orleans. He was then a tight ends coach for the Raiders and Chargers for four years and his final official job in LA was run-game coordinator and O-line coach. He hasn’t been calling plays for the Dolphins, whose offense started brilliantly this season before tailing off badly at the end. Per DVOA, their offense finished the year ranked #2 in the league. He was recently ranked first in a poll of 1700 players listing the best offensive coordinators in the league. Smith has a reputation for being a supportive coach and was credited with aiding Darren Waller with his sobriety, with Waller stating: “Frank is my favorite coach I’ve ever had.”
Dan Quinn (DC, Dallas) I spoke a lot about Quinn yesterday so check out that article. His defenses have consistently ranked in the top-five during his time in Dallas but there are issues too. Firstly, the Cowboys have had a lot of success beating up weaker teams/quarterbacks with a schedule ranking 30th in the league this year. Against top opponents, they’ve faired poorly. Yesterday against Green Bay (48-32) was the latest example, to go with crushing losses to the likes of San Francisco (42-10) and Buffalo (31-10). Nevertheless, the expectation is he will be able to build a strong staff and his communication skills are said to be excellent.
Ejiro Eviro (DC, Carolina)
A Sean McVay coach for years looking after the Rams’ secondary, Eviro was highly rated when he made the move to Denver to become the Broncos’ defensive coordinator in 2022. As we know, things went badly and Nathaniel Hackett was quickly fired. Eviro, though, still produced the #13 defense in the league. He was released from his contract after Sean Payton’s arrival and joined the Panthers, who similarly were a hot-mess this year. In difficult circumstances, Carolina had the 25th ranked defense per DVOA. He runs a 3-4 base according to reports. For the last two years he has paired himself with Dom Capers, in both Denver and Carolina, the long-time Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator. Without a doubt, John Schneider will have contacted Capers to talk about Eviro. The pair worked closely together in Green Bay, as Schneider has occasionally noted.
Raheem Morris (DC, LA Rams)
An extremely likeable, energetic personality radiates from Morris and he’s said to be well liked. He became the youngest Head Coach in the league aged 32 when he took the Buccaneers job in 2009, going 3-13, 10-6 and 4-12 before being fired. He then worked with Dan Quinn in Atlanta, replacing him as interim Head Coach when Quinn was departed, going 4-7. He’s been the Rams’ defensive coordinator since 2021 — helping them win a Super Bowl in his first season. His defenses have ranked 3rd, 18th and 22nd per DVOA. These aren’t great rankings given they have Aaron Donald, although they have lost talent as time has gone on.
Mike Kafka (OC, NY Giants)
A fourth round pick in 2010, Kafka had a nomadic playing career as a backup quarterback before eventually turning to coaching. He started with his alma mater, Northwestern, before Andy Reid brought him to Kansas City. Reid was the coach of the Eagles when Kafka was drafted so they had a connection. He rose up the ranks with the Chiefs — starting as a quality control coach before moving on to become Patrick Mahomes’ QB coach and then adding passing-game coordinator duties. He was long touted to replace Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator in KC, only Bieniemy couldn’t get a Head Coaching opportunity. Thus, eventually he took the Giants coordinator’s job in 2022 (ironically, if he’d waited 12 months, he would’ve had the Chiefs gig). Kafka worked with Brian Daboll in New England as a player, so was again reuniting with a former coach. Daboll let him call plays, likely a term of the deal to get him to New York. The Giants had the #16 offense last year as they made the playoffs but a series of injuries and struggles this year saw them become ultra-conservative and sink to 30th. Once considered one of the hot up-and-coming coaches in football, Kafka isn’t the most charismatic public speaker but Reid and Daboll certainly saw something in him and he’s been credited as a big help in Mahomes’ career.
Patrick Graham (DC, Las Vegas)
Graham played his football at Yale, went undrafted and then embarked on a coaching career. He spent six years with the New England Patriots, mostly as a linebackers or defensive line coach. He then started to move around a bit — spending two years with the Giants coaching D-line, a year with the Packers coordinating the run defense, he spent a year with the Dolphins in 2019 as the defensive coordinator, followed by two more years with the Giants as an assistant Head Coach and defensive coordinator. Finally, he spent the last two seasons as DC with the Raiders. Clearly his roots are in the Belichick system. The Raiders had the #8 ranked defense per DVOA this season (they were 29th last year under his stewardship). Maxx Crosby has spoken glowingly of his relationship with Graham.
None of these coaches are in the playoffs, currently. That could be deliberate from the Seahawks, for two reasons. It might be common courtesy to those coaches who are focusing on big games. There’s nothing wrong with registering an interest and saying ‘we’ll circle back at an appropriate time’. They might respect that. Also, you can spend more time with these individuals now rather than rushing through a Zoom call with, say, Ben Johnson, Mike Macdonald or Ben Slowik, before they get to playoff prep.
This feels like the beginning of a process, which will likely go on for some time. Names will be added as we go along. It feels like the Seahawks are going to cast a wide net and that’s the right thing to do. As mentioned, if any new names emerge today I’ll update the article.
“He’s had a great relationship with the (Seahawks) General Manager John Schneider for quite some time.”
This isn’t well known as they’ve never, to my knowledge, worked together. In studying Vrabel over the last few days he seems to share a similar personality to Schneider and it’s easy to imagine that they’d get on.
It doesn’t mean he’s going to get the Seahawks job. It’s a connection worth considering, though, as the process moves along.
Earlier today, Peter King wrote about the fit, noting: “Mike Vrabel and Seattle make sense.” He later added in his FMIA piece:
On Mike Vrabel. Don’t know where he goes, but if I were him, I’d want to partner with Seattle and GM John Schneider. Excellent organization, smart GM. All Vrabel would have to do is coach a team with pretty good talent, knowing that Schneider has the money and experience to build a Super Bowl team—if they get the quarterback right.
Again, it’s just a name to keep in mind that we might otherwise overlook. Vrabel was named coach of the year in 2021 after leading Tennessee to a 12-5 season. He had a strong run with the Titans, reaching the AFC Championship game in 2019, then going 23-10 in the following two seasons. However, the wheels fell off a bit in the last two years as they tried to transition away from ageing players.
He is a defensive minded coach but his former offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, was recently fired by Atlanta. That name might make you cringe but Smith led the #5 ranked offense per DVOA in his final year working with Vrabel, before getting the Atlanta job. Titans fans were disappointed when he left.
Before Smith was appointed, Vrabel brought in Matt LaFleur. He lasted a year before being poached by Green Bay. So it’s also possible Vrabel could be persuaded to look towards the Shanahan/McVay system if he was appointed.
Certainly when he left his position in Tennessee, the NFL internally reacted with shock and there was a lot of praise, per this article from Charles Robinson, for a man we’ve maybe overlooked too much in this search.
Let’s get one thing straight — Dan Quinn working for the Seahawks in the past isn’t the reason why he’s a legit candidate to replace Pete Carroll.
Every time his name is mentioned it’s nearly always noted that he could be a ‘continuity’ candidate, that he would help carry on Carroll’s ‘culture’ and not much would change.
Some have even suggested Carroll could have an influence on the hire. It’s been made absolutely clear that John Schneider is in control of the next appointment. Carroll has said himself he has no sway. Last week he was fired. The statement, revealing he would be an advisor, was a gentle way of parting with a popular coach who is part of Seattle sports folklore. He also had a year left on his contract and now they can pay that off over 12 months instead of right away, while retaining a contact line to Carroll if it’s ever needed.
This is Schneider’s call. As discussed on Friday, it’ll be interesting to see what his vision is. I think there’s a good chance, with his Green Bay DNA, the future will include an offensive-minded Head Coach and the drafting of a new quarterback. I don’t think he wants ‘continuity’ — I think he wants a total fresh start.
But I also think Quinn will be a strong contender in his own right, regardless of his history with the team.
One thing I’ve been doing over the last few days is running through various interviews, mic’d up segments and press conferences to get a feel for candidates as people. How are they at public speaking? Do they command a room?
It’s a tedious exercise but one that feels necessary to discuss this hire properly. The next Head Coach can’t just be a coordinator who steps into a top job. They need to have CEO qualities. They need to be able to communicate well and they need to be able to lead.
Coaches do this differently. Kyle Shanahan isn’t the most charismatic individual but his schemes are so productive, buy-in as players is automatic. There aren’t many Shanahan’s out there, though.
Quinn is without a doubt the most impressive public speaker I’ve observed over the last few days. There’s real clarity in the way he speaks. He has a wisdom that comes with experience. It’s very easy to imagine him standing in front of a huge room of players on day one of training camp and everyone listening intently.
I mentioned the other day that I spoke to a former Seahawks player to get his views on Quinn. He was described as a great communicator with a phenomenal ability to connect with players.
This is the first reason why Quinn warrants more respect than simply being described as ‘continuity Carroll’. It’s really hard to appoint someone who can be a true leader of men. Quinn fits the bill.
There’s another thing that comes with experience and that’s the ability to recruit a great staff.
One of the reasons for Carroll’s downfall has been his coordinator and staff appointments. His last three defensive coordinators were all flops, having been promoted or re-hired from within the Carroll circle. He also failed with his offensive coordinators, at least in terms of the success and/or consistency they had in Seattle.
Quinn was the last of Carroll’s coaches to be poached to lead a franchise. That was in 2015. It’s been nine long years since anyone working for Carroll has got a sniff at such an opportunity. Serious questions had to be asked about the support staff and positional coaches too after an underwhelming run culminating in a problematic 2023 season.
There’s evidence to suggest Quinn can succeed where Carroll failed. He’s highly respected with a rich contacts list. He’s worked with various different people in Seattle, Atlanta and Dallas. He’s not permanently attached to ‘his guys’.
He empowers people when he appoints them. He gave Kyle Shanahan the offensive coordinator’s job in Atlanta and he was able to build his own offensive staff — bringing in Matt LaFleur, Mike LaFleur and Mike McDaniel. There were no sons or loyal servants forced on Shanahan.
Unlike Carroll, he can also offer full control of the offense. It never felt like the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator job was particularly attractive, or that a ‘big name’ would ever be sought. Quinn is going to be hands-off on offense and appoint the best person he can get, then let them crack on. With the weapons on the roster, that’s an attractive sell for a play-caller.
Although Quinn struggled to replace Shanahan in Atlanta, he did a good job overall identifying people for his staff. He brought in Raheem Morris as Assistant Head Coach and he’s now one of the trendier candidates in the current coaching cycle, having worked for Sean McVay for the last few years. He poached Marquand Manuel from Seattle’s staff and took him to Atlanta and he has developed into a well-regarded coach, currently working in Philadelphia. Doug Mallory, a defensive analyst currently working for Jim Harbaugh in Michigan, got his first break in the NFL when Quinn took the Falcons job.
When you look at the Cowboys defensive staff, you see a lot of promise. Al Harris is a great presence on the sideline and could be a candidate to join Quinn as defensive coordinator. Others such as Joe Whitt Jr (DB’s, passing game coordinator) and Scott McCurley (linebackers) have done an excellent job as position coaches and could also be part of Quinn’s staff.
Ever since he left Atlanta, Quinn has been preparing for his next opportunity to be a Head Coach. Who goes with him, how he wants the operation to look, what did he learn since leaving Atlanta — all of this will be shaping a plan which is easy to imagine could be quite convincing during job interviews.
There should be very little doubt that if you appoint Quinn as Head Coach, he’ll have clarity on his staff and his vision. As excited as I would be for a younger candidate like Bobby Slowik or Mike Macdonald, they might have a harder time building a staff.
It’s not impossible. Sean McVay marched into his job interview with the Rams, pulled his phone out and told Les Snead, “Wade Phillips will be my defensive coordinator. Here’s his number. He’s expecting the call.” That was a boss move from McVay, immediately eliminating any concern about his inexperience or ability to build a staff.
Slowik or Macdonald may well be able to do something similar but their experience is limited and they might have limited pulling power.
Slowik worked in Washington for two years between 2011 and 2013 then was out of coaching, taking a job as an analyst for PFF. He returned in 2017 with the 49ers, stayed their until a year ago and was then appointed to the Texans’ staff.
Aside from a short stint as an assistant at Georgia a decade ago, Macdonald has only worked for the Harbaugh’s in Baltimore and Michigan. If John Harbaugh loses coordinators in the current cycle, he might appoint from within — making it harder for Macdonald to claim Baltimore’s best position coaches for his staff. Jim Harbaugh, meanwhile, will likely be constructing a whole new staff when he takes a job in the NFL — again potentially limiting Macdonald’s contact pool.
It’s not the be-all and end-all and clearly there are ways around this. John Schneider can lean on his contacts to support a younger coach. Money talks, too. With the way Slowik has coached Houston’s offense and Macdonald Baltimore’s defense this year, they might be suitably brilliant to not worry too much about this. On Slowik in particular, I’d recommend checking out Jeff Simmons’ timeline today. He’s highlighting some great examples of why Slowik should be a strong contender for the Seahawks.
It is a feather in Quinn’s cap though that he will almost certainly be better positioned to put a strong staff together.
The one question for Quinn in this regard would be the offensive coordinator and admittedly, that’s the biggest question moving forward for Seattle. Who calls the plays offensively? The Seahawks have to get this right, whether that man is the Head Coach or merely a coordinator. The feeling that a defensive coach is only as good as his offensive play-caller — highlighted emphatically by Quinn’s time in Atlanta with and without Shanahan — is one that really rings true.
Here’s a point that I think needs to be made. There are experienced offensive coordinators who will be available in this cycle. Kellen Moore is going to leave the Chargers and has worked with Quinn in Dallas. When Ben Johnson is appointed as Head Coach by the Commanders, which feels inevitable, Eric Bieniemy will not remain as offensive coordinator.
There are other names out there, such as Jim Caldwell, who could provide experience without the threat of losing them to another team. You could also be creative by offering Brian Callahan or Mike LaFleur the title of ‘Assistant Head Coach’, a big pay increase and the opportunity to call plays. That would constitute a promotion for both, plus control and authority they don’t currently have working for offensive Head Coaches in Cincinnati and LA.
Pairing someone appealing with Quinn is plausible. However, it’s harder to identify experienced, convincing candidates to coach defense. There aren’t any Wade Phillips types out there, who can act as a mentor as well as lead the defense.
Last year the likes of Brian Flores, Vic Fangio, Jim Schwartz, Vance Joseph, Ejiro Evero and Steve Wilks were all available. Any would’ve been really attractive to pair with a bright offensive mind. This year, it’s slim pickings in that regard.
Brandon Staley might be the best bet, given he’s been a Head Coach. How would he transition back to being a coordinator though and is it something he wants to jump straight back into?
Mike Macdonald has shown there are talented, young defensive-minded coaches out there who can hit the ground running. There might be a name not common to those outside the league who is actually really highly rated.
It feels easier, though, to pair someone like Quinn (or Macdonald) with an offensive coordinator with some history of production than it would be to hire a young offensive mind and get them the Wade Phillips they might need.
The final point I want to raise is about Quinn’s schematic flexibility. He’s admitted that in Atlanta he was too rigid in using the ‘Carroll’ defense and it’s something he’s rectified in Dallas.
This article by Cody Alexander discusses some of the ways he’s shifted from pure Cover 3 to find ways to keep opponents guessing:
Changing the coverage contour post-snap forces offenses to guess the coverage. Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn likes to run opposite looks on most downs in Dallas. Against the Bengals, Quinn featured two-high looks on early downs, only to snap to Cover 3 post-snap flooding the intermediate passing lanes. Quinn opted for a Cover 3 look on middle downs and snapped to Tampa coverage post-snap.
The constant cat-and-mouse game is needed as most offenses have locked in on “beaters” for most coverages. Using rotations post-snap applies more pressure on the QB, who has to recalibrate his vision post-snap. With premier EDGEs in Dallas, holding the ball can spell disaster for most QBs.
Though Quinn carries more of a zone-match Cover 3 philosophy, he loves to run Cover 1. Until this past season, Quinn has run man-free coverages as a dominant scheme alongside Cover 3. Going from man-match to zone principles helps Quinn keep the playbook simple.
Quinn has always been known for his Cover 3 and Cover 1 schemes that feature one safety up high. It’s what “made him” when he rose through the coaching ranks by being a part of the Legion of Boom defense of the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, however, the rise of the RPO among other things has made those defensive looks much more vulnerable.
That’s why in 2022, the Cowboys defensive coordinator became a “quarters” coverage coach. While different coaches will give you different definitions, think mostly about Cover 4 and Cover 2 varieties where opponents attempt to take the opponents’ deep passing game away.
This forces offenses to be patient with two safeties up high and several deep defenders. Instead of going over the top of the defense, teams have to find a way to attack underneath and pound the rock.
It’s a very significant and encouraging change for Quinn. Not only is he having success with what’s always worked for him, but he’s also showing he’s willing to adapt to the tides of the NFL. The best part is he’s done so efficiently as the Cowboys remained one of the best defenses last year.
Carroll was hardly stuck in his ways and it’s well publicised that he’s moved around different defensive alignments and ideas. Even so, it became tiring watching Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan seemingly find the same weak spots repeatedly whenever they faced the Carroll defense. Quinn seems to be well on top of league trends and attempting to throw questions back at the creative play-callers dominating the league, rather than simply aiming to limit the damage.
The results speak for themselves. The Cowboys had the #5 defense in 2023, having previously ranked fourth in 2021 and 2022. As with Robert Salah and the Jets, Quinn has found a way to consistently deliver a productive defense. And as with Salah, the success or failure of his operation will rest on the ability of his quarterback and offensive play-caller to make the most of it. The Jets consistently fail in that regard, although the Aaron Rodgers experiment was an attempt to change their fortunes. The Cowboys succeed with Dak Prescott.
Give Quinn a good offensive coordinator and quarterback combo and there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t be a strong team.
Again, let me stress, all of this doesn’t mean I think Quinn is the guy. I’ve made it clear that Ben Johnson is my preferred candidate, based on the research I did for this article about him. The reports that Adam Peters and Johnson are in agreement to work together — and Peters’ appointment in Washington — has killed off most of the hope I had that Johnson will end up in Seattle.
Generally I’m open-minded about alternatives. I’d prefer an offensive-minded Head Coach because I think the roster, in its current state, is tilted towards Seattle’s talented skill players. Getting the most from them is critical and it can shape the identity of the team moving forward. Plus, the likelihood of drafting a quarterback soon makes an offensive leader more appealing. If Slowik leaves Houston after one year, for example, that could impact C.J. Stroud. You don’t want to have to go through that. Plus we saw what happened to Quinn’s Falcons when he lost his hot-shot play-caller. That’s the constant danger you live with when you have a defensive-minded coach.
Slowik’s play-calling performance against Cleveland — DVOA’s #2 ranked defense — was highly impressive. It felt like you were watching Shanahan. For what it’s worth, Slowik is a good communicator too. I asked someone in the league about him and was given this review: “Constantly setup Stroud for success. Has schemed up wide open explosives in nearly every game. Great cohesion to his system.” The question marks are his ability to build a staff and whether he’s ready to lead a team as the main man — questions we likely won’t be able to answer given we’re not in the room when he’s being interviewed and can’t talk to his players and coaching colleagues.
I have reservations about Quinn too. He was 24-29 without Shanahan in Atlanta. He’s had a lot of success with the LOB and Micah Parsons, yet with the Falcons — where he had no stars — his unit was consistently average. It was difficult watching Shanahan destroy the Cowboys earlier this season to the tune of a 42-10 defeat. At a time when it feels like you have to fight fire with fire in the NFC West, I’m not sure Quinn is capable of being the solution to Shanahan and McVay dominating the Seahawks.
In an ideal world you appoint a great offensive mind then go and get a defensive coordinator like Quinn at a time when the Cowboys did — experienced yet keen to rebuild his career, with fresh perspective and a willingness to adapt. As noted though, short of Brandon Staley, it’s hard to imagine who fits that bill.
These are the challenges that face any team leading a coaching search. High-profile coaches like Jim Harbaugh don’t carry these concerns — but he doesn’t seem like even a remote possibility in Seattle. The idea that John Schneider finally gets full control of football operations and his first move is to appoint the one man most likely to argue every single day about every single decision he makes is fanciful. If you wanted Harbaugh, you likely needed a complete clean-break with him getting serious control over personnel.
One final thing I’d say is that patience is required. I think there’s a few dominos still to fall. There’s continuing chatter that other teams could join the coaching search depending on how the playoffs play out.
Jerry Jones is said to be ready to move off Mike McCarthy if Dallas flops in the post-season. That would put an attractive rival job on the market and it could be a situation where Quinn is convinced to stay with the Cowboys.
Mike Tomlin is said to be considering a change of scenery, placing a question mark over Pittsburgh’s future. Things have collapsed so quickly in Philadelphia, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility Nick Sirianni could lose his job given how ruthless Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie can be. There’s even talk that Andy Reid might retire. Working with Patrick Mahomes would make the Chiefs the #1 destination for any offensive-minded coach.
There’s also always room for a surprise too. Miami’s Mike McDaniel is under renewed pressure after the Dolphins’ playoff defeat yesterday and you could forgive Kevin Stefanski for being fed-up with the constant drama and upcoming cap-hell in Cleveland.
This is going to be a process that takes time. Some candidates can’t even be interviewed yet because they’re still in the playoffs. Some candidates won’t want to rush the situation and will wait to see what emerges over the next fortnight. There might not be a new coach in Seattle by the Senior Bowl later this month and people should be prepared for that possibility.
There’s no quick-fix. The only thing anyone should be hoping for is that once the Seahawks identify their #1 target, they make sure they don’t go anywhere else.
Edit: The Cowboys were trounced by the Packers today in the playoffs. There’s a lot of blame to go around for the performance but Quinn was part of it. It’ll be a harder sell, off the back of that game, to convince anyone that the Seahawks’ next direction should be led by anyone involved in that meltdown.
Robbie, Adam and I did a live stream today, discussing everything to do with the Seahawks coaching search. If you missed it, check it out here:
The Seahawks are in a position they’ve only really been in for one year since the turn of the century. Mike Holmgren was the ‘big show’ in Seattle. Pete Carroll, equally, defined everything about the team.
This hasn’t been a franchise where the GM wields the most influence, power and carries the identity. In recent history it’s only happened in 2009, when Tim Ruskell got his way and ran the operation with Jim Mora as his coach. It lasted a year, before both Ruskell and Mora were ousted.
When Carroll’s departure was announced it was revealed that John Schneider would be leading the search for a new coach. It stands to reason that the Seahawks won’t be big-game hunting, landing a name that almost becomes bigger than anything else to do with the team. Not unless they appoint Jim Harbaugh or Bill Belichick, which doesn’t seem likely.
This is the most interesting aspect of discovering who the new coach will be. It’ll tell us everything about Schneider and his vision. What are the Seahawks going to look like? Will it be similar to the previous 14 years? Will it be completely different?
Listening to the various NFL insiders, most are convinced Dan Quinn will be the next Head Coach. Mike Garafolo was on KJR yesterday and almost made it seem like a formality, suggesting he’d possibly been waiting for the gig all along. Ian Rapoport was on Pat McAfee and said the same thing: “I’ve always thought Dan Quinn was waiting for Seattle and he’s a really strong candidate.” He added there was mutual interest between team and coach.
Garofolo mentioned that the coaching candidate I wrote about yesterday, Ben Johnson, has been in talks with the 49ers’ assistant GM Adam Peters to be a double-act for next season. Peters has today been appointed as the Washington Commanders’ new GM and the feeling is he and Johnson — considered by many to be the main coaching prize in this cycle — will work together. Thus, Johnson could well be a non-starter.
I get the impression Quinn’s arrival is increasingly inevitable. It’s not just Garafolo and Rapoport. Adam Schefter made the connection between Quinn and the Seahawks immediately. So did Albert Breer. Ed Werder, who is well connected in Dallas, has repeatedly said Quinn to Seattle was a distinct possibility one day.
Having noted the ‘no smoke without fire’ angle as the basis for insisting we should talk about the Russell Wilson trade saga and Carroll’s potential departure this year, it would be hypocritical to not acknowledge that all signs point to Quinn. No other candidates are being touted. This tweet from Jeff Howe is the only resistance I’ve seen on the Quinn-to-Seattle talk.
Given it’s also since been revealed that Schneider had been tasked with reviewing potential Carroll replacements before the end of the season, it’s possible the Seahawks already know exactly who they want. If they’re focusing on one man, they don’t need to put in multiple interview requests like other teams. We’ve seen no reports of requests so far (although they will eventually come because the Seahawks have to speak to different candidates, even if it’s only to comply with the Rooney Rule).
Quinn is highly respected. I messaged an ex-Seahawk this week to ask about him. He was described as the most seamless option, a great communicator and someone with a phenomenal ability to connect to his players. He felt Quinn would really improve the defense and could work with some of the pieces Seattle has.
I’d read somewhere that Vulcan traditionally go by the ‘no first time CEO’ rule with appointments, although if that’s even true it might merely be a preference given they hired an inexperienced coach in Portland. Even so, hiring a rookie Head Coach might not be the plan. They might be pressing on Schneider, although I hope not, that they want some level of experience.
There’s a method to that thought process. As much as I want to see someone like Ben Johnson get a shot at this, there’s an element of the unknown. You could end up with a Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. You could also end up with a Nathaniel Hackett or Brandon Staley. I personally don’t think you can allow fear to dictate any decision on your next Head Coach. If the next guy doesn’t work out, just move on like they did with Mora. Ownership may feel differently.
There is some evidence that second-time coaches benefit from past experience. Holmgren and Carroll are good examples. So too are Bill Belichick in New England and Andy Reid in Kansas City. Even Dan Campbell had 12 games as interim Head Coach in Miami prior to joining Detroit.
You can also point to plenty of second-timers who underwhelm and fail. At the moment, Dennis Allen doesn’t seem to be fairing that much better than he did with the Raiders. The point is though, you can well imagine a GM or ownership having a preference for someone with experience.
It would also make sense for Schneider to go with someone he knows very well. This has to work. He doesn’t know how many chances he’ll get to appoint a coach. If the new guy fails, will he be making the replacement hire? It’s critical that he appoints someone he knows he can work closely with.
Let’s say he goes with a coach he has no prior relationship with. They may not ‘clash’ but they also might not see eye to eye. I can imagine when a relationship becomes strained between a GM and coach, life can be pretty miserable.
If Schneider goes out and gives someone their chance, it might create a loyalty bond that prevents any issues down the line. Schneider would be ‘the boss’ and therefore, his say is final. You get the gist though. If you have to live in each other’s pockets, you want it to be with someone you know you won’t want to strangle.
Quinn would undoubtedly fit the bill as someone who could work with Schneider. His reputation has been enhanced in Dallas and he has the CEO qualities as a leader that you look for. They obviously know each other very well.
There are other angles to consider, though.
Firstly, while it’s important for Schneider to identify someone he knows he can work with, he also needs someone he truly believes will deliver top-end results. It’s no good being great friends with the coach if you aren’t winning. That’s another sure-fire way to ensure your own position is in jeopardy.
Quinn’s record in Atlanta was not impressive without Kyle Shanahan. He had a 24-29 record without him. His defensive units were consistently average. I’m sure if they appoint Quinn they’ll say he’s a coach who has taken a team to the Super Bowl and it’ll be promoted as a great positive. It feels deceptive. Shanahan’s offense was electric in 2016, turning Matt Ryan into the unexpected NFL MVP. We’ve since seen what a Shanahan offense can do in San Francisco.
With Steve Sarkisian and Dirk Koetter running the offense, things fell apart. If the Quinn appointment is so completely tied to getting the offensive coordinator right, is he actually the right person to appoint?
This is the issue with hiring a defensive coach. Frequently, they’re only as good as the offensive coordinator and quarterback.
Mike Tomlin had to fire his offensive coordinator this year and Kenny Pickett looks very average. Give him a great play-caller and a better quarterback and the Steelers might be as strong as the Ravens. Would Belichick still be the Patriots coach if he wasn’t floundering to replace Josh McDaniels and if Mac Jones had worked out?
Can Quinn be brilliant in Seattle without an all-star offensive play-caller and a great quarterback? How do you find those two things? If they don’t get either right, are we just going to see what happened in Atlanta? 24-29.
Admittedly an offensive Head Coach will need a long-term answer at quarterback too but if he’s scheming a great offense, that’s half the equation with no danger they’ll be poached by another team.
Does John Schneider truly believe that Quinn walking through the door gives the Seahawks the best chance to eventually contend again for Championships? Is he going to be able to go toe-to-toe with Shanahan and McVay in the division?
When the Cowboys played the Niners this season, they lost 42-10 and gave up 410 yards of offense and 170 rushing yards. They did, however, thrash the Rams 43-20 in a game where Matt Stafford injured his thumb in the first half. The Rams managed only 280 total yards.
The other thing that gives me pause on Quinn is Schneider’s background in Green Bay. Look at the Packers’ recent history. Holmgren, Mike McCarthy and Matt LaFleur. All offensive coaches.
Ron Wolf is often cited as a big influence on Schneider. He appointed three coaches — Holmgren, Ray Rhodes and Mike Sherman. Of the three, Rhodes is the only defensive minded coach.
I had a look at what happened around that appointment. Rhodes replaced Holmgren in 1999. Wolf was reportedly a big fan of his coaching style and nobody else was interviewed for the position. He only lasted one year though, going 8-8, before being fired amid accusations of underachieving. Sherman, an offensive coach, replaced him.
I don’t know if this will have any bearing on Schneider’s decision. On the one hand, Wolf was a fan of Rhodes and went with him. He also clearly felt he made a mistake and had to correct it 12 months later. Then he went back to an offensive guy.
Green Bay’s identity for a long time now has been an offensive coach and a legendary quarterback. That’s the glamour surrounding the Packers. I’ve always felt Schneider was very much part of that DNA. There’s always a bit of excitement in his voice when he talks about quarterbacks. He rightly takes a lot of pride in his evaluation of Russell Wilson. Who else was letting the national reporters know immediately after Patrick Mahomes was drafted by Kansas City that Seattle really rated him? I get the sense — although will never be able to confirm — that Schneider’s favourite part of the job is scouting quarterbacks.
Going with Quinn as Head Coach won’t undermine that but I just think there’s at least a possibility that Schneider will want to use what has worked for Green Bay for so long — getting an offensive Head Coach and pairing them with a great quarterback. I suspect his plan for the team will include drafting that QB either this year or next.
There’s a counter to that thought too. Garofolo, who I sense is well connected to Schneider based on his reporting over the years, also said on KJR yesterday that the offensive coaches have been well mined over the years and there aren’t many quality options left. If Johnson is destined to go to Washington and if Harbaugh isn’t a consideration, it may simply be that the Seahawks think their best bet is to go with a defensive guy because the ones available are more talented coaches.
That’s a tough pill to swallow though. For example, the top-10 offenses per DVOA are all playoff teams. The only two not coached by an offensive mind are Baltimore and Buffalo and those two teams have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Four of the top-10 defensive teams are not in the playoffs — the Jets, Jaguars, Patriots and Raiders. Those teams rank 32nd, 18th, 29th and 27th offensively. They all have great performing defenses and they’re all let down by the offense.
The Seahawks might need to fix their defense as a pressing concern but what is the best way to do that? Is it to try and make the defensive side of the ball your identity through your Head Coach? Or is it to get a base level of competence to complement an offense that could be highly explosive with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet?
What is the best way to achieve that highly explosive offense? Is it to appoint an offensive minded Head Coach? Or is to try and find an offensive coordinator acting as a QB coach somewhere attractive in a Shane Waldron-style experiment?
For the reasons I laid out yesterday, I think they should go all-in on Ben Johnson. I think there’s ample evidence within that article explaining why. I think he’d be an ideal fit to work with the tools in Seattle because they’re similar to what he has in Detroit. Sadly, it seems like he’s far more likely to be heading to Washington.
If he’s unavailable and if the Seahawks don’t want to roll the dice on someone like Bob Slowik, they don’t actually have that many obvious offensive options. They could speak to a Brian Callahan or an Alex Van Pelt. They might just feel that candidates like Quinn, Brian Flores, Mike Macdonald and Raheem Morris are superior Head Coaching options.
I’m not convinced any of those names are of the standard of Shanahan and McVay and that’s the concerning thing. It’s why I’m totally open to Harbaugh if he’s an option because love him or loathe him, the guy can coach. He would scare the NFC West to death. He’d love to play the Niners twice a year. I just think it’s about as likely as Darrell Bevell being the next Head Coach.
Thus, I’ll go full circle, this is perhaps why Quinn — to the national reporters at least — feels like a shoe-in. A safe bet.
Is that what the Seahawks need to restart after the Carroll era though? Something ‘safe’? And isn’t ‘safe’ another way of saying ‘unremarkable’?
Plus how much does Schneider want a continuity candidate, versus complete change? I think more than anything right now the franchise needs a jolt — not just a slightly different version of Carroll.
Two final points. Adam Schefter’s report at the weekend noting Jerry Jones doesn’t want to lose Quinn and could fire Mike McCarthy in order to keep him has to be noted. If McCarthy loses to the Packers this weekend, that could happen. It doesn’t mean Quinn would necessarily choose Dallas over Seattle. It’d be interesting to know which job he’d prefer. It does feel, however, like Jones is fretting about his coaching setup.
If McCarthy is fired by Dallas in favour of Quinn, could he be an option for Schneider?
They have a connection. He’s not a first-time Head Coach. He’s offensive-minded. He’s from the Green Bay DNA. It won’t get the juices flowing among Seahawks fans but I guess you could maybe see it happening?
Finally, I think Jason Puckett made a good point on KJR yesterday. It could be someone left-field who nobody is talking about. That has often been the way in the draft with Schneider and it could be with the Head Coaching search.
That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. It’s not like Sean McVay was a household name before emerging as a candidate for the Rams. Ditto John Harbaugh when he got the Ravens job or Mike McDaniel in Miami. They were all in the league but people weren’t demanding their favourite team go and get them.
It’s going to be an interesting few weeks although, to go full circle, it does sound a lot like Quinn could be their guy.
Earlier today I was on KJR talking to the great Jason Puckett & Jim Moore, discussing the Pete Carroll news and what’s next. If you missed it, check out the spot below:
I’ve spent a lot of time since it was announced Pete Carroll was departing weighing up potential replacements. There are some strong candidates but one coach more than any other stands out.
I want the Seahawks to appoint Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
The man who replaces Carroll needs to tick several boxes. He needs to be a great communicator — a CEO type more than just an effective coordinator. He needs to be leading an offense or defense that is enjoying transferrable success. He needs to be able to build a strong staff. He needs to be able to set a new culture and have clarity on what his football team is going to be.
I believe Johnson is the man most likely to tick all of these boxes.
Firstly, let’s look at what he’s done in Detroit. He was initially tight ends coach when Dan Campbell took the Lions job. After a miserable 0-8-1 start in Campbell’s first year, he decided to demote offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. Johnson was promoted to be Detroit’s new offensive coordinator the following February.
Here’s what has happened since then. Under Lynn, the Lions had the 29th ranked offense per DVOA. Johnson then took over and Detroit had the 7th ranked offense in 2022. This year, they had the 5th ranked offense. That’s what you call having an impact.
Quickly word was spreading that Detroit had one of the bright young coaching stars on their books. Bengals coach Zac Taylor, who had worked with Johnson in Miami, commented on his ability in the week of Cincinnati’s Super Bowl match-up against the Rams:
“I’ve tried to hire Ben many, many, many times. He always just gets promoted to where I can’t get him. [Lions coach] Dan [Campbell] knows that,” Taylor told reporters. “I’ve always tried to find a place for him on staff, whether it’s offense, defense, special [teams], it doesn’t matter. He’s one of those guys you want on your staff because he’s brilliant.”
Campbell describes Johnson as a “chess player”. He says Johnson puts a lot of time and thought into getting certain players touches and when to call plays, which, according to Campbell, is key in building the gameplan for the week.
“He can identify quickly things that, ‘Man, I know I’ve got to be better here. I won’t ever do that again. Man, if we play these guys again, this is exactly what I would do,'” Campbell said.
“He’s got an answer for all of it in real time and the more he memory banks, he just keeps getting better and better and growing. And then even from the game-plan standpoint, putting players in the best position to have success.”
This is all very appealing. You have a 37-year-old coach viewed as a star in his field. He has produced at a high level for the Lions, transforming their offense. The results speak for themselves.
I think Johnson’s work in Detroit specifically speaks to what the Seahawks need. He has achieved great results with Jared Goff. Stylistically, Goff might be different to Geno Smith. Yet their PFF rankings for 2023 (Goff 11th, Smith 13th) suggests they are two players of a similar level. Let’s not forget that the Rams essentially palmed Goff off on the Lions in order to acquire Stafford. Johnson isn’t succeeding because he’s had the fortune to work with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. He’s succeeding because he’s helped Goff perform at a good level.
For me, it’s time for the Seahawks to embrace where their talent is on the roster. Currently they are not a power-running team who can play great defense, as Carroll desired. Their key components are their young skill players — DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. They have a quarterback who is experienced and capable. They used a top-10 pick on a pass-protecting left tackle in Charles Cross.
These players should form the new identity and focal point for the team. Johnson is ideally placed to make this happen.
Let’s start with the running backs. The Seahawks have used two second round picks on Walker and Charbonnet, yet received minimal return from that investment in 2023. Detroit also spent big on the position — signing David Montgomery then using a high first round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs.
Montgomery had 1015 yards this year, Gibbs had 945. The pair combined for 23 rushing touchdowns and produced the NFL’s fifth best rushing attack. Three of the teams above them in the rankings feature running quarterbacks, so really the only team with the better pure ground game was the San Francisco 49ers.
That’s the kind of production you need if you spend high picks on running backs.
In the passing game, Johnson helped turn Amon-Ra St.Brown into a star. He had 1515 receiving yards this year (third in the league, only behind Tyreek Hill and Ceedee Lamb) and 10 touchdowns. They know how to feature him and feed him the ball — St.Brown had the fifth most targets in 2023 (164). The Seahawks badly need someone who can create a system to max-out Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett (if he remains on the roster).
Then there’s Sam LaPorta — second round rookie tight end. He was a revelation this year, catching 10 touchdowns and recording 889 receiving yards. When’s the last time the Seahawks featured a tight end in this way? It’s such a crucial position in the modern NFL and they need a big-time tight end target going forward.
Everything is set for Johnson to come in and emulate what he’s achieved in Detroit. He can take Seattle’s offense to new heights and with a complementary defense in tow, there’s no reason why as soon as next season the Seahawks couldn’t emulate the Lions and be a dangerous playoff team. How many other franchises can offer that?
The Lions have transformed from 3-13-1 to 9-8 to 11-5 contenders with Johnson, the OC, building one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. His play design is innovative. His playcalling, fearless. Production speaks for itself: Detroit ranks sixth in passing (4,286 yards), fourth in rushing (2,241 yards) and have scored the third-most touchdowns (54) in the NFL. Jared Goff revitalized his career. When this unit is synchronized, rushing lanes part like the sea. Receivers are wide open. There are flea-flickers… and third-down passes to Penei Sewell… and 2-point passes to Taylor Decker. The Lions turn Sundays into backyard football.
Most owners crave offensive minds at the edge of innovation. That’s why the coaching trees of Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were pillaged. Those who are a step behind will resemble dinosaurs — fast. That was the problem in Carolina. Frank Reich’s playbook was suddenly collecting cobwebs and the Panthers had too much invested in Bryce Young. It’s no shock Carolina reportedly covets Johnson.
This is a good video detailing how Johnson succeeds on a schematic level. You’ll need to head to YouTube to watch it as the NFL has blocked the footage appearing on other sites but it’s well worth seeing:
Dunne also highlighted the culture Dan Campbell has created in Detroit and why it would be useful for the Seahawks, in their current form, to try and tap into this:
This Lions staff full of former pros — Campbell, Aaron Glenn, Antwaan Randle-El, Mark Brunell — is all business, he explained. There’s no showboating, no screwing around. The Lions are “not putting up with any bullshit,” he said. There’s maximum effort from guys up and down the roster. It’s nonstop. It’s relentless. Receivers block. Corners hit. “They don’t care about the score or nothing,” McGinn added. “Those coaches are on these people. I can just imagine what it’s like behind closed doors.”
I can’t imagine the Jamal Adams tweets, Tariq Woolen grabbing his crotch, cigars in the locker-room after missing the playoffs and players saying ‘the Rams wanted it more than us’ would cut it on Campbell’s watch and there’s a chance Johnson would bring that approach to Seattle.
At the start I mentioned you need to be a CEO type, not just a good play-caller or position coach. Johnson’s press conferences, which I’ve watched in the last 24 hours, show a charismatic, personable coach. He enjoys a good relationship with the Detroit media and speaks well. You can see why he graduated from North Carolina with a degree in mathematics and computer science — he’s clearly intelligent with the way he speaks. To me, he comes across in a very similar way to Sean McVay.
Dunne explains that Johnson has the necessary communication skills to be a Head Coach:
Johnson is described as an effective teacher. He’s able to transfer everything players see on film to the field.
“A gifted communicator,” Blough says. “His whole career has just been founded in hard work where he’s been the grinder just his whole time and he’s not afraid to be creative. So he maximizes his guys’ skill-sets and then allows them to go and play fast because of the way he communicates the details. His gift is definitely communicating details.”
The only question mark for me is his ability to build a great staff — but that’s a question for all candidates. I can’t say with any certainty that any of the candidates would be able to do that. Campbell did a good job building his staff in Detroit, so he can maybe pull from that group.
Clearly he would need a good defensive coordinator. I’d quite like to tap into Brandon Staley, who feels like a good personality match with Johnson and had success with the Rams as a defensive coordinator, even if he struggled as a Head Coach. Alternatively, the Seahawks could aim to appoint a very experienced ‘wise head’ to support Johnson. That worked between McVay and Wade Phillips in LA. Or perhaps Johnson has someone in mind from Campbell’s Detroit staff?
Regardless, he is my preferred candidate as of today. The NFL is an offensive-minded league. If the Seahawks draft a quarterback soon, it’d be beneficial to have an offensive-minded Head Coach to work with that player. John Schneider’s background is in Green Bay, where they have consistently had an offensive leader and a team built around the QB — Mike Holmgren, Mike McCarthy, Matt LaFleur, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and now Jordan Love.
I think this was would be a better bet than simply appointing Dan Quinn, who never produced more than an average defense in Atlanta where he didn’t have the Legion of Boom or Micah Parsons. His Falcons record without Kyle Shanahan was 24-29. Quinn has key qualities as a communicator, leader and he’s well respected in Seattle. I’m still not sold on his ability to elevate this team to where it wants to get to. I don’t think he’d have a chance to be the best coach in the NFC West and it was unnerving seeing the 49ers destroy Dallas during the regular season.
The aim has to be to appoint someone who can go toe-to-toe with Shanahan and McVay. Johnson, to me, feels like he’s cut from the same cloth. He is a hot candidate among the teams with vacancies and the Seahawks will be an appealing gig based on the talent on the roster, especially on offense, plus the chance to work with a proven GM, at a great facility with a supportive and ambitious ownership group.
Ben Johnson is the man I hope will be coaching the Seahawks in 2023.
I discussed the runners and riders in a new video below, check it out:
I’m going to get into a lot of things here, point by point. I’ll offer takes on ownership, memories of Pete Carroll’s career in Seattle, what I think happens next, who I’d like to see considered to replace Carroll and more.
For a long time, people have tried to state what they think they know about Jody Allen, Bert Kolde and the ownership group running the Seahawks. It’s now official. They are determined for this team to succeed on their watch and are keen for the standards set by Paul Allen to continue.
They didn’t shirk the decision to green-light the Russell Wilson trade. They were prepared to move on from a long-standing coach in Portland. Now, they’ve parted ways with the most successful and high-profile coach in Seattle sports.
It would’ve been very easy to just press on with Carroll, change the coordinators and give it another go next season. They haven’t done that and it’s the right decision. They’ve been bold, proactive and the message this sends to fans is — they want this team to be more competitive.
Change was necessary. The team hasn’t been a proper contender since the 2014 Super Bowl. Avoiding being bad or awful isn’t enough. You’ve got to strive for greatness, even if it’s incredibly difficult to reach that level. Settling for less because you’re not a horrible team is no way to run things.
The next Head Coach may or may not work out. That’s sport. If it doesn’t work out, you move on to the next one. That’s what Paul Allen did in 2009. That worked out pretty well. You can’t fear change. You have to run towards it, embrace it and accept that this is a challenge that must be taken on.
I’m grateful to follow a team where the ownership isn’t settling. Jody Allen and Bert Kolde have shown they mean business. It’ll be intriguing to see what the next era of Seahawks football brings.
Carroll is too respected and too important to flat-out fire. It was always going to be billed as mutual, it’s the respectful thing to do. The note that he would take on an advisors role was just a way of softening the statement. He is not a key decision maker, he is not VP of football operations, he will not be picking the next coach. He has been fired, they’re just not going to phrase it that way.
Yet Carroll in his press conference made it clear he had wanted to continue:
“I competed hard to stay as head coach. So that we could continue to be successful. That’s what I was representing in our discussions.”
I did a video on Monday saying I thought his Brock & Salk interview was a pitch to ownership. I believe that more than ever now. What he was saying was ultra positive yet unconvincing. The talk of being ‘close’ didn’t chime with reality. Thankfully, it appears Allen and Kolde were similarly unconvinced.
It was also made clear in Carroll’s press conference that he has no sway on who replaces him. John Schneider is going to lead the search, supported by ownership.
Schneider deserves this opportunity
It’s never been made clear which big decisions over the last 14 years were Carroll’s, Schneider’s or a combination of the two.
For that reason, it makes it hard to judge Schneider and his suitability to essentially lead the Seahawks’ football operation, which he’s now doing.
What I would say is this — Schneider is incredibly well respected within the league. I’m not going to say I’ve got a ton of sources to fall back on but you’ve seen the people I’ve had a chance to interview over the years. As a talent evaluator and GM, Schneider is seen in the top bracket by many.
People love to push credit away from Carroll and Schneider for building one of the all-time great rosters in the early years but that would be a mistake. Not only that, Schneider has a fantastic eye for quarterbacks. He drafted Wilson, made it clear how much he rated Patrick Mahomes (not with hindsight either, we all know where that report came from minutes after Kansas City traded up for him). There was also a ton of smoke around Schneider’s interest in Josh Allen, before Allen took his year-three stride as a pro.
Schneider’s background is with Green Bay, a consistently competitive franchise. He’s worked with some of the best front office staff to ever do it. Given Seattle’s desire to be newly competitive, probably draft a quarterback soon and go in a new direction, I can’t think of anyone better suited for the role.
His last two draft classes were universally praised and it’s time to build on that with another big off-season, starting with a first opportunity to hire a new Head Coach.
Who could replace Carroll?
A lot of the big-name reporters immediately connected Dan Quinn to the Seahawks and it’s understandable why, given his ties to the franchise. It’s inevitable they will request an interview with Quinn and he could be the next Head Coach.
It’s not a formality he’ll be their guy, though.
Firstly — Adam Schefter reported on Saturday that Jerry Jones is determined not to lose Quinn. So much so, in fact, that if Dallas’ playoff journey flounders — he might be prepared to fire Mike McCarthy and install Quinn as the Cowboys’ Head Coach.
If you want Quinn in Seattle, you probably need to root for a strong post-season performance from Dallas.
I have mixed thoughts on the possibility. Quinn knows the franchise, is highly respected and he has vital experience as a Head Coach (leading Atlanta to a Super Bowl they should’ve won). I think he’ll do a good job building a staff and I’m enthused at the thought of Al Harris (yes, that Al Harris) joining him in Seattle as a possible defensive coordinator. Harris is a dude.
At the same time, Quinn’s best jobs in football have coincided with working with the LOB in Seattle and Micah Parsons and co. in Dallas. When in Atlanta, his defenses were consistently average. The Falcons reached the Super Bowl off the back of a MVP season from Matt Ryan, courtesy of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching. As soon as Shanahan took the 49ers gig, the Falcons became very average very quickly.
I fear that without an elite offensive coordinator and/or elite defensive stars, Quinn’s Seahawks could end up looking a lot like the Falcons between 2017 and 2020, where their total record was 24-29 under Quinn’s leadership. It’s also hard to shake watching Shanahan’s 49ers hammer the Cowboys this year.
For that reason, I’ve been hoping for an extensive and open-minded search. The Seahawks have not had one of these for a long time. Mike Holmgren, Jim Mora and Pete Carroll were all singled out. I like the idea of a process taking place this time.
This tweet is encouraging:
As for the Seahawks’ next HC, Cowboys DC Dan Quinn is still very highly regarded in Seattle and has been a hot name the past couple hiring cycles, but the Seahawks are expected to cast a wide net in the search for Carroll’s replacement. https://t.co/K1rLXzBgs7
There are obvious names and then some wildcard suggestions I want to bring up.
Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has helped the Lions to 12 wins this year thanks to DVOA’s fifth-ranked offense. He has had great success working with Jared Goff, who is comparable (in my opinion) to Geno Smith. Johnson has shown he can max-out a one-two punch at running back, he’s done an excellent job featuring his key weapons and he turned Sam LaPorta into a rookie star at tight end.
He’s an absolute must-interview for the Seahawks. They need someone who can do all of this with the arsenal of skill-players Seattle has on offense.
Bob Slowik the Houston offensive coordinator is a serious up-and-comer who is from the same old Washington coaching staff that once had Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay working together. He’s done an outstanding job with C.J. Stroud, which could be important if the Seahawks draft a quarterback soon. All of the Shanahan/McVay tree Head Coaches have delivered a base-level of offensive success that has kept their teams relevant. That can’t be ignored.
Mike MacDonald, the Ravens defensive coordinator, inherited the 28th ranked defense per DVOA. He made it a top-ten unit in his first season (#8) and this season they are ranked #1. He’s done it without a blue-chip, elite pass rusher. He’s got everything out of re-treads like Jadeveon Clowney, developed people like Justin Madubuike into a star and if the Seahawks want someone who can turn around their defense — he’s shown he can do it. He also recently gave the Niners and Shanahan fits in a big win in Santa Clara.
These are the three obvious names I would suggest. There are some others I would pitch.
Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan worked closely with Payton Manning during his time in Denver. He’s been part of a Cincinnati staff that drafted and developed Joe Burrow and this year, when they lost Burrow, still enjoyed success with Jake Browning. I’ve watched interviews with Callahan and his approach is very modern and he emphasises the importance of dynamic offense. His father, Bill, is arguably the best offensive line coach in the NFL and could be persuaded to swap Cleveland for Seattle.
The Browns are worth looking at, given how brilliantly they’ve played despite the chaos going on in Cleveland. If Kevin Stefanski was willing to be coaxed out of the disaster zone that is the Browns, I’d be willing to put a trade offer into Cleveland. After all, they face cap hell from next year thanks to Deshaun Watson’s contract. Ownership isn’t great. Maybe you could steal him away — but it would likely be expensive via trade.
Assuming that doesn’t happen, why not look at Alex Van Pelt his offensive coordinator? He’s been in the league a long time. He has ties to Green Bay like Schneider. He’s also the quarterbacks coach in Cleveland and look at what he’s done with Joe Flacco — or P.J. Walker for that matter. Would he be worth an interview?
I would set up an interview with Brian Flores in Minnesota. He did what seemed like a good job in Miami until he was ousted. His Vikings defense is ranked #11 per DVOA. He would be a very different personality to Carroll but that’s not such a bad thing as you initiate change.
Who I don’t think is very likely to be a contender
There’s no way Schneider is appointing Jim Harbaugh. He’s just gained control from Carroll and Harbaugh will command huge personnel sway in his next job. It doesn’t feel like a personality match at all and the thought of Carroll being replaced by his old arch-nemesis doesn’t feel realistic. Further to that, Harbaugh has connections to the Raiders and their owner and might prefer to stay closer to family in Washington with the Commanders. I just can’t see him in Seattle — although I suppose he might like to get after the Niners twice a year.
Mike Vrabel’s personality — I think — could be similar to Schneider’s. I think they have the same sense of humour, based purely on what I’ve gleaned from Vrabel over the years. Even so, he seems destined for New England. If not, you also have to wonder how wise it’d be to go with a coach who just left a job because he didn’t agree with the last two GM’s and the direction of the team. His offensive schemes and hires have also felt archaic at times.
I’d be perfectly happy to take a chance on Kalen DeBoer, who just seems special. However, I think Husky fans can relax. Expect a big contract extension soon. If he ever does end up in the NFL, he’ll likely seek a lot of control. I think Schneider is very much going to be searching for someone from within the NFL.
My preference is…
You have to find a way to stop Shanahan and McVay. There are two ways to do it. Hire an offensive coach who can match their ability and go toe-to-toe. Or, you need to hire a defensive coach with the ability to keep them guessing, not be predictable and get after them.
My preference would be to get a bright offensive mind, make your identity your skill players and focus on point scoring. Schneider is from Green Bay where they traditionally go for offensive-minded coaches with quarterbacks as the focal point of the team. My guess is he will go in that direction, while appointing an experienced defensive coordinator to produce a complementary defense.
I am OK with going for another defensive coach but am more inclined to go with a rising star like MacDonald, leading an impressive unit that is doing more with less, than a re-tread coach who has benefited from star players like Quinn and struggled to produce a great defense in his prior coaching job.
Thank you, Pete Carroll
I remember it like it was yesterday. I was a freelance journalist, sat in the office towards the end of my shift. The report appeared online that Jim Mora had been fired. I saw it on Rotoworld because there was no Twitter back then. Shortly after it was revealed Pete Carroll was likely coming in.
I was excited. Seahawks Draft Blog was two years old. I knew all about USC. I liked the ambitious, flashy hire. It felt like exactly the right appointment for the time.
Mora struggled to set out his vision for the team. After one press conference, Carroll made it abundantly clear what the Seahawks were going to be about.
Right from that 2010 season everything felt like an adventure. There were so many crazy games. Moments that defined an era of NFL football, not just within the Seahawks franchise.
I’ll never forget scaring my poor little dog, George, when celebrating ‘Beastquake’. I remember being in Seattle for Richard Sherman’s first start in 2011. I remember staying up all night to watch a blossoming team beat up the Eagles and bully the Ravens. Then in 2012, the Russell Wilson pick. The win against the Niners in 2012 — perhaps my favourite win and the moment when it felt real, that the Seahawks could actually win a Championship.
My son was born on the day of the win in Houston in 2013. A typical Carroll rollercoaster. I celebrated that win with extra gusto, emotional from a dramatic, long day — after being forced to leave my wife and first-born child in the hospital because she needed to stay overnight and visiting hours were up. The Seahawks made the best day of my life even more special.
The NFC Championship win against the Niners. The Super Bowl.
The legends who were born. One of the greatest defense’s in league history, playing for our team. Marshawn Lynch and Kam Chancellor, setting the tone. Wilson’s brilliance. The LOB.
I have two main teams in my sporting life — the Seahawks and the England national team. I’ll never have more sporting satisfaction in my life than that run between 2011 and 2013.
Things had come to a natural end and I regret that we had to spend as much time as we did discussing it. We couldn’t avoid it though. It was time.
I look forward, now, to reflecting on everything that was great about the early Carroll years. I’ll watch Rain City Redemption again.
And what a press conference to end. As good as it gets. Carroll, highly emotional, ending with a hilarious, killer line.
Q: “If the Bears had won, do you think you’d be in this position?”
A: “Not today!”
It’s going to be a fascinating next few days and weeks — so stick with Seahawks Draft Blog as we’ll be producing articles, streams, videos, radio spots and podcast appearances.
I don’t want this to be a repeat of what I’ve said about the Head Coach so I’ll take this in a different direction. Here are the pressing issues facing the Seahawks this off-season, in my opinion, if Pete Carroll isn’t about to imminently depart…
Create cap space
The Seahawks are currently $9.4m in debt when it comes to effective cap space, according to Over The Cap. They won’t be able to do anything until they make some big decisions on existing, expensive players.
Cutting Bryan Mone will save $5.9m and that’s a no-brainer. It should be equally inevitable to finally move on from Jamal Adams, designating him as a post-June 1st cut to save $16.5m.
That would give you $13m to spend in free agency but they’ll need more. They have too many free agents (you can see the list here) who need re-signing or replacing. Cutting Will Dissly would save another $7m and Dee Eskridge $1.5m. I don’t think you can afford to hack away at the roster, however tempting that might be. You’d need to part with at least one more big earner though. The underwhelming Dre’Mont Jones saves you $11.5m if he’s designated as a post-June 1st cut, Quandre Diggs saves $11m if he’s cut out-right and Tyler Lockett saves $17m as a post-June 1st departure. You might have to pick one of those three.
Geno Smith has to be retained because otherwise you back yourself into a corner for the draft. His salary is three times what it was in 2023 though ($31.2m) so that number has to come down. A negotiation is inevitable to create further cap relief.
It’s time to churn again
I would prioritise retaining Leonard Williams. He played well enough to want to keep around. Spare me the ‘sunk-cost fallacy’ reply — it’ll be malpractice to waste a second rounder for 10 games only, given how well Williams played.
I’d do what it takes to keep him. He’s better than Dre’Mont Jones, who you gave $17.1m a year last off-season. Williams is older but again, he’s better.
Every other free agent is a big old shrug of the shoulders. Do not overpay for Jordyn Brooks, Damien Lewis, Noah Fant or anyone else. Let them reach free agency and let the market come to you. This team did not play well enough this off-season to run it back.
It’s time to churn the roster and look to find value and attitude. Find individuals who are going to hold each other accountable, tackle properly, execute the scheme as intended and play with greater physicality.
I’d happily cut or trade a couple of surprise players to send a message if that’s what’s needed. This team playing soft against Pittsburgh should leave a scar on the Seahawks franchise as they head into the off-season. It might be headache-inducing to initiate another reset after just two years but there’s no choice.
Always compete, right? If you’re just going to bring this bunch back for more of the same, it’s the opposite of competing. The place needs a shake-up. A kick up the backside is required. This means letting players walk and bringing in new ones. They need some of the ruthlessness we saw in 2010.
Prioritise the trenches
Look at Michigan last night. Look at the 49ers and Ravens. Look at the Browns. Look what the Steelers did to you in week 17. If the Seahawks want to compete with the big guns they’ve got to prioritise the big bodies.
Please, finally, shift resource from safety and linebacker and move it to the two lines. We’ve been asking for this for years. Nobody is saying they’ve done nothing up front. A top-10 pick at left tackle, big money on Dre’Mont Jones and the Leonard Williams trade is evidence of investment. It’s only half of the puzzle, though. You can do even more if you just stop spending so much at linebacker and safety, especially when the production doesn’t match the investment.
It’s a loaded O-line draft. Some big name defensive linemen are set to reach free agency. Go all-in up front and then worry about linebacker and safety after. Find speed, tackling ability and toughness for those positions and crack on. Very few teams are making a big splash at safety these days.
Seattle should aspire to be a top-five trenches team and they shouldn’t stop striving to achieve that goal until they reach it.
Draft a quarterback
The transfer portal, big names returning to school and the rise in stock of certain players makes this harder than expected a few weeks ago. Plus, having no second rounder also makes it tricky.
It should still be an aim. It’s been too long since the Seahawks took a chance on a young QB — either to develop or start. Two since 2010 is not enough. They can’t wait for the perfect prospect to land in their lap. They need to take a few shots.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye seem destined to be taken #1-3. Any other player, in my opinion, is on the table for the Seahawks. Michael Penix Jr will not go as high as some think for reasons explained here and here. Bo Nix is a day two pick and J.J. McCarthy is not an exciting prospect.
Spencer Rattler is the wildcard for me and could propel his stock way up in the coming weeks. Whether he does or not, he’s one to watch.
They could try to move up. I’m not sure Mike Vrabel has particularly enjoyed working with young quarterbacks in Tennessee. If he ends up replacing Bill Belichick in New England, is it possible the Seahawks could make a big move to #3 with Geno Smith used as a trade chip with picks? It’s fanciful and unlikely but it’s the only scenario I can imagine where the Seahawks make a move, guaranteeing themselves one of the top-three QB’s in the class. It’d cost a fortune, reminiscent of the Trey Lance, Russell Wilson and Bryce Young trades. I don’t think it’s likely.
If it’s simply not possible to draft a QB, then fine. But the intention should be there.
If Pete Carroll stays, hire serious coordinators
Kris Richard, Ken Norton Jr, Clint Hurtt. No more internal defensive coordinator appointments. No more wishy-washy offensive hires either. It’s time to go big game hunting. Get a couple of guys you can trust to run both units and let them cook.
Carroll’s complete circle is more of a complete donut at this point (but far less palatable). He’s had a go at controlling everything, creating his identity and having his guys put together his football team. It’s time for him to take a step back and go for the best coordinators money can buy. Split the circle and emphasise details, execution and toughness.
If he doesn’t like the idea, shake hands and part ways. (That’s what I’d like to see anyway but I promised not to go there…)
If you think Wink Martindale can come in and turn around the defense, go and get him and his entourage that have just left New York. Then hand him the keys to the defense. I’m sceptical if he’s what Seattle’s looking for, given he handed-off a 28th ranked DVOA defense to Mike McDonald (who has since bumped it up to #8 in 2022 and #1 in 2023) in Baltimore. You get the gist though. Make a splash.
On offense, go and identify someone who is a serious up-and-comer. Other teams seem to manage it, why can’t you? Kudos for having a go with Shane Waldron but his route concepts and adjustments when things stall aren’t good enough. You need someone who can consistently challenge opponents with an arsenal of skilful playmakers and put points on the board. Too often this year the offense has ground to a halt for long stretches.
The issue is, I’m not sure any coordinator worth his salt will want to come. This hasn’t been a team where staff have developed their reputations. Working under Carroll, especially as a defensive coordinator, might not be attractive. That’s possibly why they’ve relied on internal hires.
That said, trying the same things over and over again isn’t producing results. If Carroll isn’t on board with a plan to go big and bold, you have to shift to a new era.
Create more accountability
In the last few weeks we’ve had poorly judged cigars in the locker room, embarrassing crotch-grabbing from a young cornerback after fluking an ugly win and Jamal Adams’ shameful twitter spat. Prior to this, we had the Head Coach admitting his team wasn’t ready for the Thanksgiving game against the 49ers and players were confessing the Rams ‘wanted it more’ in week one.
This is a shambles.
Carroll cannot rely on Carl ‘Tater’ Smith and his son Nate for accountability. Someone needs to come in and do a better job of keeping standards high. Equally, the Seahawks should be making major changes to their staff and roster to ensure the shenanigans we saw in 2023 isn’t repeated next season.
The whole tone around the team has to be different going forward.
There’s a broader draft media point I want to make in a moment but I wanted to offer some brief, instant reaction thoughts on Michigan’s win against Washington in the National Championship game.
The ref’s had a very poor night, missing holds committed by Michigan players (I have less of an issue with the ones they called on Washington, you just want consistency). That said, look at what happened in the game overall. Michigan dominated the trenches with or without some favourable calls. They ended with 303 rushing yards and once again, all J.J. McCarthy had to do was manage the game.
You have to doff your cap to Jim Harbaugh. He inherited a team that was miles away. He’s been in the news for various reasons this year but he’s taken his school to the summit in an era where that has been especially hard to do with Georgia and Alabama a constant threat. They play typically tough, physical, beat-you-up football. They did all this without their best offensive lineman, Zak Zinter.
The Washington offensive line, which has been so strong all year, struggled. With an injured star running back, they never found much consistency or fluidity.
It’s another example of how often games are won in the trenches. You can have the big explosive passing offense but it doesn’t hold a candle to beating your opponent up inside. Note to Seahawks — that’s where you haven’t been good enough for years and that’s why you can’t create the identity you want.
My main focus, though, was the quarterbacks. And this is where the broader point on draft media comes in.
There were so many people overreacting to the Texas game, vaunting Michael Penix Jr into the top-five discussion and getting carried away. This influences people — and we see it time and time again. It’s no different when someone has a good pro-day. The overreaction that occurs is widespread and frustrating.
When you watch a full season-load of games for these players and even interview some of them, or speak to well placed sources, and then one pundit delivers a hot take after one game — you can’t do anything to push back against it. In that moment, you’re facing a tidal wave of opposition. Even something as minor as a decent pro-day for Malik Willis is enough to have people projecting him for the top-five, bemoaning their team passing on him and calling out decision makers online. Yet he never had any justifiable reason to go earlier than round three and that’s exactly where he landed.
What we saw today was the context I’ve tried to bring on Penix Jr. Undoubtedly, he has a great arm. We’ve seen that all season. He also showed last week he can have games where he moves around and makes plays, can deliver downfield passes with extreme accuracy and he’s a playmaker who has elevated his team.
In my article last week I also noted that he had an eight game stretch this season where his completion percentage plummeted from 74.9% in the first five games to 60.1%. His PFF grade also dipped from 89.9 to 71.6. This all coincided with an increase in pressures from 6.6 per game to 10.7 per game. Once the ‘easy pitch-and-catch’ games were gone, the production and performance dropped.
People mentioned injuries, illness and the weather — but his ‘big time throw’ percentage remained consistent throughout the season at 2.6 per game. I watched all of these games and saw a player who was just ‘off’ for a stretch, had some misses and also resorted to trying too many deep-balls thrown to areas rather than delivered with precision.
He now has 11 interceptions for the season. In comparison, C.J. Stroud only had 12 picks in his entire time at Ohio State.
Today we saw one of the other concerns I’ve voiced. There’s no doubting that Penix can throw the deep-ball brilliantly and make big plays. However, at the next level he’s going to face pressure like this quite often. There’s very little evidence on tape he can play a patient intermediate game, taking what’s on offer and playing with a more methodical style.
Today his head just looked scrambled as soon as the pressure started hitting home. He missed easy, wide-open opportunities where a bit of poise and clarity of mind would’ve put points on the board. By the end he was left throwing all over the place again with his technique out the window — finishing with only 52.9% completed passes.
Last week people were comparing the Texas performance to Stroud vs Georgia, which wasn’t right. Stroud felt the same kind of pressure we saw today, against one of the best college defense’s ever, and made impossible plays happen with his legs and arm. Penix felt frantic, compromised and constantly seeking any kind of rhythm.
He wasn’t helped by drops and some fierce Michigan play. Yet overall I think this validates what I’ve been trying to argue for most of the season. He has incredible, unquestioned arm talent and that has a lot of value. If you can protect him and give him time, he can hurt opponents. I think his ceiling is a bigger-armed Tua and there’s real value in that.
I’m not sure he’s going to have the smoothest transition into a NFL offense and his arm strength and big-play ability will need to be weighed up against whether he can manage from the pocket and play the percentages on an intermediate level. That couches his stock — so while two-thirds of Seahawks twitter was calling for the team to trade up for him seven days ago, I think we’re back to reality now. I’m saying this as someone who has seen all of Penix Jr’s 2023 games and watched him live. I like him — but we need to be realistic.
This is, of course, without even mentioning the injury history or the fact some teams just won’t want a lefty QB.
Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. Given the way the draft order fell, I would expect Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to complete the top three, followed by Marvin Harrison Jr going to the Cardinals at #4.
After that, there might be a wait. Draft media, just as much as it overreacts to single games, also overrates quarterbacks. Nothing about J.J. McCarthy says ‘first round pick’. I still believe there are teams who might consider other QB’s in the first frame but it’s less likely to be Penix Jr and Bo Nix. I think they’ll both be day two picks.
There’s always a chance one team forces things but you shouldn’t adjust your evaluation based on that. People scoffed at the thought of Penix Jr in round three a few days ago but I’m telling you — there will be teams putting him in that range, even if he still goes in the top-50.
The Seahawks will have an opportunity to draft a quarterback. The key at #16 for them will be whether they like one enough to take one there, whether they trade down, wait until later (without a second round pick) or if they just ignore the position.
It’s a loaded early-round class for the offensive line. I have Tyler Guyton, Taliese Fuagu, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Amarius Mims and JC Latham all graded as first round tackles with Troy Fautanu a first round guard. It’s early but at least one of these players will be there at #16. A lot of people have Joe Alt in round one but I think he’s more of a round two tackle who goes in round one.
I have 12 more O-liners with second round grades. You can build a line for the future in this draft, without question. There could be great value too if Michigan’s Zinter falls due to his injury — he’s the best guard in the draft and could be a sure-fire long-term NFL starter who would’ve gone top-50 but now could last.
It’s less exciting on the D-line. Dallas Turner is overrated and, in my opinion, will not upgrade anything. Jared Verse has his admirers and has had some great games for FSU, plus some very quiet, uneventful games. Laiatu Latu is the best pure edge without necessarily having a ‘wow’ factor. Bralen Trice is a better pro-prospect than many of the nationals recognise (and can run a 4.2 short shuttle at his bigger size). Jer’Zhan Newton was an interior game-wrecker in college but measureables will be key for him. It’s hard to find impact interior rushers who translate their college production to the pro’s. There is depth at defensive tackle and some interesting options should last into rounds 3/4.
I still believe Spencer Rattler is criminally underrated and he faced the kind of pressure Penix Jr faced today on a weekly basis thanks to South Carolina’s appalling O-line. He showed he can handle it, he was creative, productive and excelled. He is the hidden diamond within the class, someone well worth drafting and giving a chance to. The Gamecocks’ offense carries some pro-concepts and he faced a pro-environment with all the pressure and hits. Rattler’s arm talent is excellent, he has completely developed into a player who can play within structure, he’s a big-play threat and he has matured greatly from the Oklahoma days.
If the Seahawks could find a way to come out of the draft with him plus Zak Zinter and a first round O-liner — that would be a very intriguing boost for the long-term success of the offense. They might be better off with a more experienced, proven O-line though — paired with a younger, faster defense.
Health permitting, linebacker Payton Wilson is also a player who would look great to add speed, intensity and playmaking quality at linebacker. There are loads of other players I could mention too. It’s an intriguing draft — and it’s why it’ll be a crying shame if they don’t re-sign Leonard Williams and end up having blown a valuable second round pick. Especially if they try and pull a stunt like trying to ‘run it back’ in 2024.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72919550/1770540106.0.jpg)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73033969/1915477831.0.jpg)
