With Rob, Robbie & Adam…

Just a quick post today as I’m heading home after a long working weekend in London but wanted to share some quick thoughts…

— Will Levis is now the betting favourite to be the #2 pick. I’m a little bit surprised that he’s jumped as high as #2 but far from shocked. There’s been a higher-than-usual amount of negativity about this quarterback class, Bryce Young aside. The stuff that’s currently being discussed about C.J. Stroud is bizarre.

Levis has always had a lot of talent and potential. In terms of physical projection, he’s the complete package. He knows there are things he has to work on. The situation at Kentucky was not conducive with success. People forget Texas Tech were 5-7 in Patrick Mahomes’ final season and Wyoming were 8-5 in Josh Allen’s senior year.

Wins and losses and statistics are part of the picture but can’t be the focus. It’s about projection. What can a player become?

Let’s not forget this quote from John Schneider:

“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”

I’m not convinced Levis will go second overall and think it’s probably just a bit of market overreaction to some ‘chance your arm’ bets. I think his floor will be Indianapolis at #4, however. Even so, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Texans selected him. Levis has outstanding character and will help a new coach shape a culture. He’s a terrific scheme fit for the Shanahan offense. He can start quickly.

I think it’d be a great fit. Twitter might explode if the Texans make the move but it wouldn’t be the first time such a reaction proved foolish.

— Tony Pauline says the Cardinals are fielding trade calls for the #3 pick.

I’m a little bit confused by Tony’s report — I’m not sure whether he means a team wants to trade up to go O-line or whether the Cardinals will trade down and then make that selection. I suspect he means Arizona will move down to, say, the #11 pick and then pick an offensive lineman. That’s the range where the rush on the group is expected.

I think this could end up being a worry for the Seahawks. I was speaking to someone quite relevant yesterday who felt — and I tend to agree — that Anthony Richardson could be the quarterback out of the four available that most interests Seattle. If Will Anderson goes second overall and then someone moves up to #3 to select Richardson, that might be a worst case scenario.

Again, I don’t think Jalen Carter is the option Seahawks Twitter seems to believe. It was also interesting listening to Michael Lombardi this week discuss Tyree Wilson and mention some teams might have concerns about his foot injury — as those types of injury have a habit of reoccurring.

Personally I would hope the Seahawks are quite relaxed if the worst case scenario involves C.J. Stroud being the pick. Yet it’s hard to know what to think, given the negativity surrounding him over the last few days.

I’m set to interview Tony tomorrow so I will get some more info on what he’s hearing.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

I don’t care about C.J. Stroud’s S2 score

I appreciate that teams are looking for every advantage they can get and cognitive testing is a worthwhile exercise.

Yet it really does feel like we’re in danger of letting one piece of data overrule a lot of other things that are just as important.

C.J. Stroud always had things he needed to work on. Receiving reads from the sideline and having the benefit of an All-Star supporting cast at Ohio State made his life as easy as any quarterback in college football.

His intermediate accuracy at times suffered and especially in 2021 and the early stages of 2022, there were some frustrating moments on tape.

I talked about these issues.

The striking positives, however, are tantalising. He throws with wonderful touch to all areas of the field. He has a great arm, an excellent release and he can throw with varying degrees of velocity to complete throws across the field.

Against Georgia he showed he can improvise and create like the top quarterbacks generally need to do in the modern NFL. That performance might only be a one-off. There’s so much evidence in that one tape, however, against the dominant force in college football, to believe his potential is worth taking a chance on.

If I was a team needing a quarterback and Stroud was available, I wouldn’t be worrying about the S2 test. I would tell the coaches to watch the Georgia game and say, ‘your job is to bring that to the NFL’.

Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick. Nine teams passed on him.

28 players between 2014-2023 have received a higher grade than Mahomes on NFL.com’s ratings.

Josh Allen was the 7th overall pick. Six teams passed on him.

22 players between 2014-2023 have received a higher grade than Allen on NFL.com’s ratings.

Justin Herbert was the 6th overall pick. Five teams passed on him.

20 players between 2014-2023 have received a higher grade than Herbert on NFL.com’s ratings.

We can always sit here and find a reason not to take a quarterback. Sometimes it’s about appreciating talent, appreciating that a college football player isn’t the finished article and challenging your coaches to bring the best out of them.

Sit Stroud for a year. Let him learn and adjust. Give him weapons and an O-line.

I suspect if you can do that, we’ll be talking about teams mistakenly passing on him in the future too.

Are the Seahawks going to switch their defensive scheme?

I mentioned this yesterday but it’s worth a further reflection. Richard Sherman, who remains close to people in Seattle including, especially, Bobby Wagner, hinted that Pete Carroll was reverting back to his old scheme.

It sounds like the 3-4 approach might be pushed to one side.

This would change so much for the draft if true. The types of players they might consider could change considerably.

For example, let’s imagine a scenario where Bryce Young is the first overall pick and Will Anderson is selected by Houston at #2.

I think there’s a very reasonable chance someone will trade up to #3 to select Anthony Richardson. We’ll see. It wouldn’t necessarily be to jump Indianapolis. It’d be to jump Seattle, with the knowledge Indy is unlikely to move down because they need to take their guy (which I think is clearly Will Levis).

That could create a situation where the top four are Young, Anderson, Richardson, Levis.

I would hope, personally, that the Seahawks would take C.J. Stroud in that scenario. However, if they rate Tyree Wilson as highly as someone like Chris Simms, they might be inclined to take him.

In a 3-4 scheme it’s very challenging to place Wilson. He’s only 271lbs so he’s not an obvious defensive end but he’s also too big to play in space at outside linebacker.

In a 4-3 however, he would be an extremely viable fit. Frank Clark was exactly the same weight (271lbs) when he entered the league in 2015.

It’s something to keep in mind and certainly I’m adding Wilson to my contender-list for the #5 pick. I still think Will Anderson and Anthony Richardson will be the two key players. I think if either lasts to #5, they’ll be taken. There’s no way I’m ruling out Wilson, though, if they’re shifting back to the 4-3 — even though I have reservations personally about Wilson’s play.

This could also be important for the veteran market. Poona Ford and Frank Clark remain free agents. If the Seahawks need to fill D-line holes after the draft, both are fits for the 4-3 and have familiarity with the team.

Switching schemes could bring Myles Murphy into play in the 20’s. His excellent physical profile and inconsistent tape reminds me a lot of Rashan Gary, who the Seahawks reportedly liked in 2019. I struggle with Lukas Van Ness because while the forty time (4.58) at his size is very appealing, there’s a lot of unexciting reps on tape. Even so, he’s a greater consideration if they do move back to the 4-3.

They might not need to prioritise a nose tackle with quite as much gusto. A solid, dependable one-technique could suffice.

It could push them to draft another young linebacker for depth purposes, if they are more likely to be featuring the position more prominently.

Certainly this information creates a lot of different considerations for next week.

The search for leaders

I had an interesting conversation with someone today, who I won’t name but they certainly know their stuff.

I asked for their opinion on what the Seahawks were probably looking for at #5. The response was interesting.

The source suggested Seattle was seeking the ‘next wave’ of leadership. That the way they drafted a year ago, plus the decision to bring back Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed, had been a concerted effort to create a particular dynamic in the locker room.

It’s felt that the pick at #5 will need to add to that. It’ll need to be someone who can come in and fit into that culture. The description used was ‘a fire-starter’ — someone with the grit, the energy and the tone-setting qualities that can help elevate this team. The attitude has to match the talent.

I agree with that and it’s what we’ve been saying all along. I do think the player they pick at #5 is going to be someone who is drafted to become a focal-point leader. It’s why I think they’ll be very high on Will Anderson. It’s why I think they’ll like the quarterbacks. It’s why I think Devon Witherspoon is an interesting official-30 visitor. It’s why I’m returning to Tyree Wilson because he is also of strong character.

It’s also why I don’t think they’ll draft Jalen Carter. While many continue to overlook the flags surrounding Carter, thinking the Seahawks will be blinded by potential, I continue to think those people are making a mistake. Carter is the antithesis of what is described above.

Here are players I think could easily fit the description of what Carroll and Schneider simply refer to as ‘a Seahawk’:

Josh Downs
Jonathan Mingo
Michael Mayer
Tucker Kraft
Joe Tippmann
John Michael Schmitz
Luke Wypler
Juice Scruggs
Alex Forsyth
Peter Skoronski
Chandler Zavala
Will Anderson
Derick Hall
Nolan Smith
Will McDonald
B.J. Ojulari
Isaiah Foskey
Byron Young (TEN)
Tyree Wilson
Tuli Tuipulotu
Calijah Kancey
Keeanu Benton
Zacch Pickens
Adetomiwa Adebawore
Byron Young (ALA)
Dorian Williams
Daiyan Henley
Henry To’oto’o
DeMarvion Overshown
Devon Witherspoon
Julius Brents
Cory Trice
Jay Ward
Brian Branch
JL Skinner
Sydney Brown
Ji’Ayir Brown
Jammie Robinson
Kenny McIntosh
Chris Rodriguez
Chase Brown
Tank Bigsby
Roschon Johnson
C.J. Stroud
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson
Bryce Young
Hendon Hooker

Of course there will be plenty of others and that list isn’t in order, these are just the ones that immediately spring to mind when I think of toughness, grit and mentality.

If you missed it yesterday, check out my latest mock draft. Please also watch the video below of my latest appearance on VSiN — the more eyes on it the better. The stream with Adam & Robbie has been pushed back to Sunday at 3pm (PT) and I’m also having my annual chat with Tony Pauline over the weekend too.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

One week to go…

John Schneider admitted in his pre-draft press conference this week that the top of the draft is a lot more unpredictable than it was last year. I know what he means.

A few weeks ago it felt pretty obvious. Carolina and Houston would take Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud in either order. Arizona would either select Will Anderson or trade down, with another club potentially moving up for a quarterback. Indianapolis would go QB. Then Seattle’s on the clock.

So much has changed in the last fortnight. Now it appears Stroud isn’t likely to even be the second QB taken. Amid talk about his readiness to play and the fact he shares an agent with Deshaun Watson, Houston are seemingly out on Stroud. There are increasing reports that he also scored poorly on the much-hyped ‘S2’ test.

There’s a lot of buzz, predicted by this site weeks ago, that Will Levis is the chosen quarterback of the Colts. Meanwhile Adam Schefter believes the Texans and Cardinals are unlikely to get a good enough offer to move down.

It’s not improbable that Stroud lasts to #5. Would the Seahawks take him? Are they as determined as the media thinks not to take a quarterback? Will they be enamoured by Anthony Richardson’s upside? Are they unlikely to take Jalen Carter, as I think, or is he the stone cold lock that the national media expects?

It all feels very unpredictable — but I’m going to try my best to predict it anyway.

I found this interesting. Richard Sherman interviewed Geno Smith on his podcast today. Right at the end, Sherman casually drops out that Pete Carroll, “is going back to the scheme.”

Does that mean the Seahawks are abandoning the bear front? Are they shifting away from the 3-4 concepts and returning to what Carroll knows best?

I would be in favour of this move. There are too many teams trying to run the Vic Fangio defense unsuccessfully. The top defensive teams in the league — San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia — are running schemes far more similar to the Carroll system.

If they are reverting back, this would completely change how they could operate in the draft. For starters, Tyree Wilson would be a far better scheme fit. Myles Murphy would suddenly be a greater consideration. They reportedly liked college underachiever Rashan Gary in 2019. Murphy compares quite favourably to Gary.

Lukas Van Ness also stands to be a more viable fit.

It’ll be interesting to see if Sherman is right about the scheme.

My thoughts about #5 haven’t changed. I’ve felt the same way for six weeks. I think Will Anderson is their preferred pick at #5. I think Anthony Richardson is option #2 or possibly ‘1b’.

It’s obvious why they might like Anderson — a perfect character profile, a dynamic edge threat and a shot to add an impact defender. With Richardson, I believe his incredible physical upside will appeal to traits-driven John Schneider and developmental coach Pete Carroll.

I’m torn over whether Stroud’s availability changes anything. It might. He’s such a talented player. Is there something we don’t know about here? Is Michael Lombardi right about how difficult it is to coach him? Is the ‘S2’ phenomena taking over the NFL?

If the Seahawks are changing scheme, it genuinely brings Wilson into play.

I remain steadfast in my view that Seattle won’t draft Carter due to character concerns and I think the media are buying the Drew Rosenhaus playbook a little too much. As highlighted yesterday, Adam Schefter reckons there’s ‘a decent chance’ Philadelphia ‘are the team that has the decision to make (on Carter)’. I’d also remind people that Carroll and Schneider again reiterated their commitment to character and identifying ‘Seahawks’ by their personality.

One other note. Daniel Jeremiah, on a podcast with Peter Schrager, had the following on Carter to Seattle:

“Teams I’ve talked to do not expect Seattle. The stuff I got back was the Malik McDowell experience soured them on taking a chance.”

In this mock I’m not going to directly acknowledge Sherman’s rumour on the scheme. It’s something I’m going to consider strongly, however, over the next seven days.

The trades explained

There are two first round trades. Tennessee trades up from #41 to #31 with the Chiefs to select local hero Hendon Hooker. The Titans give the Chiefs their third round pick and get back Kansas City’s fourth rounder in return. The Bills go from #28 to #20 in a trade with the Seahawks to get Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks get Buffalo’s third round pick.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Young is all but confirmed as the top pick at this stage.

#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I was told by a strong source in the league weeks ago that Anderson would be ‘hands down’ the top defender taken. I’m sticking with that.

#3 Arizona — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
If the Cardinals can’t trade down I’d expect Wilson to be the pick in this scenario.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
I think Levis has been Chris Ballard’s target all along.

#5 Seattle (v/DEN) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think they’d love Will Anderson to last to this spot but if he doesn’t — Richardson has the physical talent Carroll and Schneider love to invest in.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Dan Campbell takes the most violent player in the draft.

#7 Las Vegas — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
It’s barely believable that Stroud could last this long.

#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot is a big BPA guy and on a lot of boards, Robinson is going to be among the top 2-3 players in the entire class.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
He’s the best tackle in the draft. Watch him shut down Will Anderson.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I think Philly is the most likely spot for Carter and even they aren’t a lock. I think people are underestimating the red flags.

#11 Tennessee — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
They’ve signed a left tackle candidate and drafted a right tackle. Do they add Skoronski to play inside?

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
A small drop and the Texans capitalise.

#13 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
Joe Douglas loves explosive linemen.

#14 New England — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
The Patriots love these types of undersized EDGE/LB hybrid.

#15 Green Bay — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
A perfect match.

#16 Washington — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The Commanders invest in a mature, fully prepared and talented cornerback.

#17 Pittsburgh — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
With his size and length, you’ll go in the first round.

#18 Detroit — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
I’m really excited to watch Kancey in the NFL. What a talent.

#1#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.

#20 Buffalo (v/SEA) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
The Bills jump the Chargers, Ravens, Vikings and Giants to make the kind of move their fans are calling for.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Tut tut.

#22 LA Chargers — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
A lot of people think he’s TE1 in this draft.

#23 Baltimore — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
He could go a lot earlier than people think after a superb set of combine tests.

#24 Minnesota — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
They might choose to invest in a long term pass-rusher.

#25 Jacksonville — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
This fills a need and he can play nickel or safety.

#26 New York Giants — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
They are one of a handful of teams who might be eyeing JMS in this range — including the Seahawks.

#27 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jerry Jones wants an explosive offense and Gibbs can help get them there.

#28 Seattle (v/BUF) — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
After trading down eight spots, the Seahawks add a pass rusher who could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seahawks pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he accepted the job in Seattle and had a late official-30 visit.

#29 Cincinnati — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
There’s a lot of buzz around Forbes going in this range.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
Nose tackle is a need and Smith is going to go between #30-40 I think.

#31 Philadelphia — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
Reportedly, Howie Roseman loves Adebawore.

#32 Tennessee (v/KC) — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
The Titans trade back into round one in order to secure a local favourite and ensure they get the fifth year option on his contract.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Mike Tomlin isn’t very good at hiding who he likes. He was staring lovingly at Bresee at the Clemson pro-day.

#34 Houston — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Could they try and turn him into a smaller Deebo?

#35 Arizona — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
They get a big defensive lineman in round one, then a big cornerback in round two.

#36 Indianapolis — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
Colts fans want more explosive plays and Downs is my WR1 in this class.

#37 LA Rams — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I am a huge Mingo fan and think he’ll go between #30-45.

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)
The Seahawks sent Steve Hutchinson to work out Tippmann, a clear sign of interest.

#39 Las Vegas — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
The depth at tight end could keep some on the board longer than expected.

#40 Carolina — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Running the 4.5’s at pro-day shifts Johnston into the second round.

#41 New Orleans — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
Musgrave is great value here.

#42 Kansas City (v/TEN) — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
I just keep thinking, why didn’t he start at Iowa?

#43 NY Jets (v/CLE) — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
They need to add a stout defensive tackle.

#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
Another explosive lineman for the Jets, Mauch could fill the void at center.

#45 Atlanta — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
It feels like a long time since Daniel Jeremiah labelled White the best defender in the draft.

#46 Green Bay — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could play right tackle or kick inside immediately and be the eventual starter on the blind-side.

#47 New England — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
With the way they use their linebackers, this would be a good fit for Sanders.

#48 Washington — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
I think LaPorta is a very likely top-50 pick.

#49 Detroit — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
I’m not a fan but plenty of others are.

#50 Pittsburgh — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
I can easily imagine him going in the top-25, it’s just hard to place certain players.

#51 Tampa Bay — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
He is such an exciting player to watch and he’s had a great draft process.

#52 Miami — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
Reportedly teams have soured on Jones due to his unwillingness to test at the combine or pro-day, plus the way he called it a week after one day at the Senior Bowl.

#53 Seattle — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
People are seriously sleeping on this very athletic and powerful defensive tackle.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
An alpha who needs to vary his attack but has all the traits.

#55 LA Chargers — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
He can be a real weapon when healthy.

#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Isaiah Foskey (EDGE, Notre Dame)
I think he’s an average player but again, others like him.

#57 Jacksonville — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
Like D.J. Reed, he could go a lot earlier than this.

#58 NY Giants — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
I’ve never watched Addison and thought he was anything special.

#59 Dallas — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
Capable of late acceleration to separate but ran slower than expected at the combine.

#60 Buffalo — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
He’s more athlete than football player currently.

#61 Cincinnati — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
I think he’s a tremendous prospect with major upside.

#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Byron Young (DT, Alabama)
He’ll be a warrior in the trenches.

#63 Philadelphia — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Great traits, great personality.

#64 Kansas City — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
He’s a Chiefs-type of draft pick — super athletic and versatile.

Seattle’s picks

#5 Anthony Richardson (QB)
#28 Will McDonald (EDGE)
#38 Joe Tippmann (C)
#53 Zacch Pickens (DT)

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Adam Schefter joined 97.5 The Fanatic’s The John Kincade Show this week and offered some interesting thoughts on Jalen Carter’s likely draft position:

“When you talk to people around that Georgia program, they say that one guy – maybe the one guy – that kept Jalen Carter really in line was Jordan Davis. When he was around Jordan Davis, he was on some of his best behavior. Philly would have that advantage, bringing Carter to Philly and having Jordan Davis as a guy that could help out there.

He’s the guy in this year’s draft that, outside of the quarterbacks, is really fascinating and intriguing to see. What happens to this all-world talent and who is the one that turns in the pick on him? I’ll say this, I think there’s a decent chance that the Eagles are the team that has that decision to make here.”

The reason I wanted to raise this in a new, separate post is to provide some counter perspective to the recent stuff from Peter King — who reported the league consensus is that Carter will be taken fifth overall. It’s important to acknowledge King’s report, which we have, but it’s also worth drawing attention to this from Schefter.

Let’s be clear — he’s not ruling out Carter to the Seahawks, Cardinals, Lions, Raiders or anyone else picking before the Eagles. However, this line is telling:

“What happens to this all-world talent and who is the one that turns in the pick on him? I’ll say this, I think there’s a decent chance that the Eagles are the team that has that decision to make here.”

Essentially, Schefter is saying there’s a ‘decent chance’ he’s still on the board at #10. That’s a far cry from the ‘won’t get past Seattle and Detroit’ talk we’re increasingly seeing.

This is what I’ve felt for some time. Howie Roseman is the perfect GM to take a chance on Carter. He already has a Super Bowl roster. There’ll be no blowback if he takes Carter with a bonus top-10 pick and he busts. Eagles fans will appreciate taking the shot. When you’re already the top team in the NFC, there’s nothing to lose.

Philadelphia has a quarterback, an O-line, weapons on offense and a pass rush. They have more or less a complete roster and just need to fill in some gaps. They can draft Carter to be part of an already excellent rotation as the heir apparent to Fletcher Cox. They can use him as an impact situational player in year one, without the pressure to come in, play lots of snaps and dominate which would be prevalent in Seattle. They could do with Carter in 2023 what they did with Jordan Davis in 2022.

Having New Orleans’ first round pick this year (what on earth were the Saints thinking a year ago?) is a total gift to the Eagles and one they can take a risk with.

Even though the Seahawks and Lions also have extra first round picks, they are in a very different position. The most obvious being neither came close to the Super Bowl but also, both franchises are in building mode. They can ill-afford for their top-10 picks to bust.

Seattle and Detroit also have two very distinctive coaches. One preaches competition, the other introduced himself to the fans by announcing at his opening press conference:

“We’re gonna stand up, and it’s gonna take two more shots to knock us down. And on the way up, we’re gonna take your other kneecap, and we’re gonna get up, and it’s gonna take three shots to get us down. And when we do, we’re gonna take another hunk out of you.”

As I keep saying, I’m not sure these quotes from anonymous scouting sources via Bob McGinn quite chime with either coach:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.” Was a 5-star recruit from Warren Sapp’s hometown of Apopka, Fla. “Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader.

I listened this week to a podcast featuring Jim Monos, former Director of Player Personnel for the Bills. He had this to say about Carter, reacting to McGinn’s report:

“That’s a trigger word, ‘doesn’t love football’. ‘Treadmill’ — that means weight issues. You really should just move on. It’s tempting, because of the size/speed. You have to move on. Let somebody else be the hero. I would let somebody else be the hero. It would be a luxury pick for a team. A top-10 pick? You have to love football. You have to be productive, you have to be ready to play right away. It’s a hard no, it’s an easy hard no almost. Especially at defensive tackle.”

I appreciate I’m running the risk of creating a hill to die on. I’ve laboured this point so much now, I’m probably boring a lot of the wider community while irritating people who do want to consider Carter.

I just feel like a perspective needs to be offered that isn’t being discussed much elsewhere. If I have to come on here and eat crow next week, that’s fine. I’m happy to do it. As I’ve said in recent streams, I’m only trying to project based on the evidence we have. I won’t regret trying to offer some balance to the endless ‘Carter to Seattle’ chatter that often doesn’t go beyond ‘Pete will love this guy!’ and ‘ideal Seahawk!’. If they do draft him, I’ll take my lumps and then analyse what he will bring and how they can get the best out of him.

I do think the perceived fit is based on flimsy anecdotal evidence. “Carroll loves to take a chance on players” — well yeah, if they have high football character. A troubled soul has never been a turn-off for Carroll. He wants competitors though. I’m not sure “lazy”, “motor runs hot and cold”, “doesn’t love football” and “doesn’t love the weight room” are lines that scream ‘Carroll’s Seahawks’.

Even this line from Schefter sets off alarm bells: “When he was around Jordan Davis, he was on some of his best behavior.”

Some of his best behaviour? That’s the kind of thing I say about my nine-year-old and six-year-old.

Don’t get me wrong — every team that passes on Carter will shake their head as they do it and wonder what could’ve been. If he’d just been able to apply himself differently — and some of that isn’t all on him — teams could feel more comfortable taking him. There’s just too much going on — and will be too much going on — for some teams.

Again though, this isn’t a perspective you hear often. For example, Chris Simms brushed off any concerns on PFT yesterday. He acknowledged there were moments on tape where he looked tired or took plays off. His counter was to say teams in the NFL will monitor his snaps — ignoring the fact that Georgia did that for three years already. He put it down to the no-huddle nature of college football — yet teams in the NFL are more than capable of playing with tempo.

Simms called questions about his conditioning and football character ‘nitpicking’, which I think is fairly astonishing and makes for a non-serious review of the player. It’s very possible to acknowledge that Carter is a sensational talent in terms of when he brings it, it’s exciting to watch. But you can’t just dismiss the bad moments on tape, or the character concerns, or the practise habits, or the conditioning, or the pattern of mistakes that led to legal trouble.

I think this is why we have to acknowledge that Carter’s agent Drew Rosenhaus, for all his quirks, is so good at his job. He has created a narrative where everyone now assumes Carter will go early. As we edge closer to the draft, there actually seems to be media momentum behind Carter. That’s a far cry from his pro-day, where it was difficult to imagine what might happen to his stock.

People aren’t talking about any issues — they only focus on the positives. Rosenhaus has played an absolute blinder here with his ‘no meetings outside of the top-10’ idea while planting seeds around the media that he’s been assured by a team they’ll pick him early.

Even stuff like this tweet below is all part of the plan. It feels cringey and forced — but it’s effective. Rosenhaus has worked overtime for his client:

Tonight on #RealSports, NFL agent Drew Rosenhaus on his controversial top draft pick, University of Georgia star Jalen Carter. Stream it on @hbomax. pic.twitter.com/9D2lNQ6AOe

— Real Sports (@RealSportsHBO) April 18, 2023

Interestingly, Rosenhaus was also the agent for Malik McDowell, if that makes any difference. It might not but I wonder if Seattle, in attempting to learn from past mistakes, are one of the teams that are less likely to be swayed by this agent doing the lords work for his client.

People don’t like the McDowell/Carter comparison but it basically comes down to this. The Seahawks can’t babysit these players in the period between mini-camp and training camp. How do you force Carter to work on his conditioning? Or to live his life properly? Or to not continue his pattern of mistakes? All after you make him a top-five pick and guarantee him $30m — essentially sending the message that how you acted in the past was all OK. There are no consequences here. Only rewards.

McDowell did something reckless before his first training camp and that was that. With Carter, it might never be anything as serious as that. But is he going to train? Eat properly? Sleep properly? Live like a pro who is ‘pissed off for greatness’? You can make as many Aaron Donald comparisons as you want, Seahawks Twitter. Until Carter has Donald’s mindset and commitment to the game, he won’t get anywhere near his NFL performance.

A high-impact, disruptive defensive tackle would be so good to see in Seattle. But have they already made their move in that regard by spending big on Dre’Mont Jones? Could the plan now be to add reliable depth? Can the Byron Young, Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith types help add some ready-to-start, consistent, functioning play to complement the splash on Jones?

Eight days to go — and I apologise in advance for not being able to guarantee there won’t be eight more Jalen Carter articles.

What I can say is I’m going to be on the Cigar Thoughts podcast this week. I’m also recording with an Irish NFL podcast and Robbie, Adam and I will be doing a live stream on Thursday. I’m also working on a very interesting article I think you’ll like.

In the meantime, if you missed it — check out yesterday’s piece on why the Seahawks need to draft a quarterback and improve their D-line.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

C.J. Stroud has become the key to the draft.

In the space of about two weeks he’s gone from betting favourite to be picked first overall to an unlikely selection at #2.

Adam Schefter doesn’t think the second quarterback will come off the board until #4. Michael Lombardi said at the weekend he thinks Chris Ballard and the Colts will rank Will Levis ahead of both Stroud and Anthony Richardson due to his greater readiness to start. Some betting markets are now ranking Levis as favourite to be the second QB selected. Chris Mortensen also recently said Levis wouldn’t get out of the top-five — I suspect because he thinks his floor is Indianapolis at #4.

It’s suddenly becoming very difficult to project where Stroud will go and therefore how the top-10 will shake out.

For example, if the Texans are not interested in Stroud at #2 and the Colts prefer Levis, that doesn’t really indicate a strong likelihood of anyone trading up. Indeed, as time goes on, it’s actually being said by people like Schefter that the Texans and Cardinals are going to have a hard time finding a deal.

Let’s say that’s the case. What then? Presumably Arizona goes defense. If Houston does the same and the Colts do take Levis, Stroud would be available at #5.

That would’ve been unthinkable a few weeks ago.

I wonder how fans feel about that prospect? There’s quite an aggressive, anti-QB sentiment among Seahawks fans — especially when it comes to Levis and Richardson. What about Stroud though? Typically seen as the first or second best quarterback in the class and capable of throwing with magnificent touch and accuracy, would even the most ardent QB-sceptics be against using the #5 pick to select him?

If one of the big knocks on Stroud is he needs to work out how to play outside of the Ohio State offense, learn how to make his own reads/adjustments and basically start from scratch — he would get that in Seattle, where there’s no pressure to start.

It would feel like a complete gift to the Seahawks and a truly worthwhile shot to take for the future of the franchise. Anyone who watched that Georgia game could see the magical potential Stroud has. Does he have plenty to work on? Absolutely. Yet it’s not often you get a chance to draft and develop a talent like this.

Personally I think it’d be a great position to be in, choosing between the upside of Stroud or the physical quality of Richardson to bring in and develop. I do think the Seahawks have taken a shine to Richardson in particular — but those thoughts were perhaps brewing when it was assumed Young and Stroud would be the top two picks.

There are also people who insist the Seahawks won’t draft a quarterback at #5. Lance Zierlein, for example, is fairly adamant about it whenever he’s asked. Michael Lombardi says he thinks they’ll take a defensive lineman. We’ve had Peter King’s report this week, noting most of the league expect Jalen Carter to be the fifth pick.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Zierlein’s adamance is warranted. I don’t think the quarterback pro-day visits were some elaborate smokescreen like some have suggested. You do your homework on all of these players. It is true, though, that the Seahawks haven’t done much to address their self-confessed biggest need of addressing the D-line. The Dre’Mont Jones signing was a shot in the arm but their current D-line talent and depth is a major worry.

I’m a little bit concerned that the Seahawks think they’re closer than they are. Bet MGM has them ranked 21st in their Super Bowl odds, level with the Carolina Panthers. People will point to the fact Seattle wasn’t fancied a year ago but fail to acknowledge they had one of the easiest schedules in the league and benefitted from the collapse of the Rams and Cardinals (four out of nine wins).

If the thought process is just add in some talented rookie defenders and bombs away, I think that’ll be incredibly short-sighted. This should be treated as the second year of a process, rather than anything akin to finishing touches. I believe those finishing touches are more likely to come in 12 months time.

For all the talk of ‘impact’ defensive linemen, we’ve seen with several players that it can take 2-3 years to reach your best performance. Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux weren’t game-wreckers last year and had 3.5 and four sacks respectively. It took Quinnen Williams a long time to adjust to the pro’s.

In Seattle they’ve tended to rotate in young defensive linemen rather than give them a lot of snaps. That might change for a top-five pick but it certainly didn’t for the #40 pick last year, with Boye Mafe losing snaps to Bruce Irvin despite near-identical PFF grades for their play.

I’m wary of #5 being spent on a Tyree Wilson type who doesn’t come flying out of the traps and/or never reaches top-level potential. Meanwhile, the coaches struggle to produce a coherent and consistent defense (as has been the case for a few years now). Meanwhile, Geno Smith plays more like he did in the second half of last season making a minimum cap hit of $31.2m next year a serious question mark.

What happens then? You neither have a great defense or a contracted quarterback on your roster, or a long-term future at that position.

This is why I think it’s incredibly likely the Seahawks will draft a quarterback, it’s just a question of when.

They do, 100%, need to improve their defense. Yet they can’t run the risk of Geno not being a long term option. His end to last season can’t be ignored. He had too many turnover-worthy plays, as noted by Hugh Millen:

Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

If those turnover-worthy plays translate to real-world turnovers in 2023, it’s a problem. We all appreciate what Geno achieved last year and it was a real feel-good story. Yet it’s far too soon to declare him a bona fide long-term quarterback for this team. They know it too — which is why they have an ‘out’ on his contract next year.

If the Seahawks were forced to cut Smith to avoid his $31.2m salary in 2024, they would be faced with no viable quarterback option (short of re-signing Smith to a much smaller deal) and not having a top-five pick to do much about it. That would be a disaster that too many people are overlooking.

Thus, they need to draft someone who can realistically take over, if needed, in 2024 or 2025. Drew Lock isn’t that someone. He’s on a one-year backup contract. Clearly nobody else was offering him an opportunity to compete to start, or he wouldn’t be back in Seattle. If Smith plays all 17 games next year and simply doesn’t excel to warrant $31.2m, you’re not turning to Lock. Good luck selling that to the fanbase.

Neither can you bank on the next quarterback class providing the answer. Sometimes I think people just assume it’s easy to get the next big name being touted. There are only two ways to get them. Be bad enough to pick in the top-two or trade all of your stock for the next few years to move up (if you can even find a willing seller). Neither is appealing, especially when you already own a top-five pick this year.

A younger player with upside and potential is required as a longer term alternative to Smith. It’s just whether they spend the #5 pick on that role. I would 100% do it. I would rather invest more in a talented player than settle on a cheaper, lesser prospect. There’s no middle-class in this draft at quarterback. Anyone hoping for a mid-round or late-round flier, good luck with that. It’s basically a one-man option in Dorian Thompson-Robinson and I’m not convinced DTR, as much as I enjoyed watching him at UCLA, is a future starter in the league.

However, I can well imagine the Seahawks avoiding the quarterbacks at #5 in preference of taking a defender, yet still making sure they take a quarterback early.

It’s why I think there’s a very realistic possibility they go defense at #5 — irrespective of Stroud or Richardson being available — then take Hendon Hooker at the top of round two, or by trading back into the late first.

I would much prefer to take Stroud or Richardson (or Levis) and then add a defender in the 20’s if that’s the case. I appreciate Hooker has some appealing traits and excellent character — but that offense slays me every time. His highlights video is borderline farcical the number of times the commentator uses the words ‘wide open’ just as a throw is landing in the receiver’s hands.

Then there’s the age, the injury and I just don’t think he’s on the same level as the top-four. It’s not even that close for me. Hooker is akin to an Andy Dalton type and I would prefer to shoot for better than that.

I think it’s realistic though. I think they might do it. They need a young QB on this roster who is cheap, contracted for years and capable of developing to be a potential starter in 2024 or 2025 because there’s simply no guarantee you’ll want to pay Geno Smith $30m in either year.

They need an insurance plan. If they’re unwilling to make the #5 pick an insurance plan, it basically leaves Hooker.

So what do I think they’ll do?

I think they’ll be shaped by what happens between picks #1-4. I’ve thought for weeks that if Will Anderson lasts to #5 they’ll take him. In that situation, it increases the chances of them going in for Hooker — if available — later on. If Anderson is gone, I think they might pivot to a quarterback at #5 and then select a talented defender at #20 and/or #37.

This feels realistic. A couple of weeks ago many thought it possible the top-four could be all quarterbacks. Or, at the very least, three quarterbacks would go before Seattle’s pick. That made it viable Anderson could last. If that’s no longer the case, it seems logical they would at least consider the quarterbacks.

Of course many are just assuming the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter and that’s that. If they do, as I keep saying, I will own up to the fact I don’t think it will happen.

I was just thinking today, while reading a joint-mock draft between Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. You’re the Seahawks. You’ve drafted Carter. You’ve guaranteed him $30m the moment you select him. Then after mini-camp, you’re going to wave him off and say, ‘see you in training camp’.

How can you do that?

Only a year ago we highlighted how he identified conditioning as a priority last April, only to do nothing about it. As we saw at his pro-day and in the Ohio State and LSU games, his conditioning isn’t great. That’s probably an understatement. I’m going to guess he’s not been able to do much about that while travelling the country taking official visits over the last two weeks.

You need him in the gym during that mini-camp to training camp period. You need him watching his diet. Contrary to what people think, you can’t force him to stay in Seattle. You can’t force current or ex-players to babysit him. You can’t force him into the gym or to eat properly. He’ll be a free man, and rightly so, plus he’ll be newly minted thanks to the NFL contract that’s coming his way.

This is on top of the reported concerns over practise habits, how he takes to coaching, the pattern of mistakes made and the fact quotes like this, from anonymous scouts courtesy of Bob McGinn, don’t hint at a typical Pete Carroll player:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.” Was a 5-star recruit from Warren Sapp’s hometown of Apopka, Fla. “Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”

And just like that, I’ve started talking about Jalen Carter again.

I think it’s unavoidable for another eight days while ever the talk of Seattle taking him is rife accompanied by the frustration that he is so talented and yet has the biggest list of concerns to consider I can ever recall.

That’s why I think some teams (Philadelphia) will salivate at taking the risk, knowing it’s a shot to nothing, while others (Arizona, Seattle, Las Vegas) are probably in a different place.

While most national mocks are pairing the Seahawks with Carter, Peter Schrager had them passing on him in his mock draft — where Seattle takes Anthony Richardson instead:

“The Seahawks love Geno Smith, and there’s no doubt he’s the man for 2023. But with two picks in the top 20, they can go with a quarterback here — after all, they surely don’t plan on picking in the top five again anytime soon. If another QB-needy team doesn’t leapfrog them, the ‘Hawks can secure a signal-caller for the future. Seattle has time to get Richardson in the room with coordinator Shane Waldron so that he can learn the offense.”

He also notes with Carter, who was taken sixth overall by the Lions:

“Elite player whose off-field/character questions could be a red flag for some teams.”

I appreciate the argument some people make that his talent keeps him in your mind because if it works out, the upside is incredible. I just think you have to be honest with yourself sometimes and be realistic. People say he’s Aaron Donald without realising Aaron Donald has an elite work-ethic and commitment to greatness. If Carter won’t be coached, won’t put the effort in and won’t work on his conditioning — if he essentially doesn’t love the game enough to be ‘pissed off for greatness’ — he’ll just be a wasted pick or someone who flashes from time to time. There are tons of fantastically talented players who never amount to anything because they aren’t willing to do what is common among all the greats — outwork your peers.

It’s why I think if Anderson is gone they’ll pivot to the QB’s at #5 then attack the defense with their nine remaining picks. If I’m totally wrong, and they are prepared to take Carter at #5, I’d probably put money on them targeting Hooker at some point.

I’ve never been against a defensive pick at #5. I know they have to improve their defense. We all do.

They still can’t go into next year without a long-term option at quarterback. They need someone in the background who can replace Geno Smith if needed. Otherwise they face a not unrealistic prospect of paying a quarterback $31.2m for average play, or having to part ways and having no contracted QB on the roster.

If they find themselves in that position next year, two years after the Russell Wilson trade, it would be a calamity. They wouldn’t be moving forward. They’d have a ton of question marks. Especially if the defense gets big investment and doesn’t reach a top level, which has to be a slight fear given the state of the defense since the LOB departed.

They need to invest in both areas — D-line and quarterback — to set this team up for the future. With 10 picks, that should be achievable.

They created the perfect baton-passing process with Geno’s contract. Now it’s time to capitalise on it.

If Anderson is off the board by #5 — but Stroud and Richardson are there — I personally hope they’re willing to go quarterback then defense at #20, #37 or both.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Recently I said when someone like Chris Mortensen declares, emphatically, that ‘Bryce Young will be the #1 pick’ you have to pay attention. There was no hedging. As we sit here today, Young is now the established and fully expected pick for Carolina — despite weeks of debate about a Young vs C.J. Stroud option.

Now Adam Schefter has provided some information which is going to add so much intrigue to this draft:

.@AdamSchefter just bet @danorlovsky7 that two QBs won't be selected before the Colts at No. 4 overall 😳 🤝

"Indianapolis may be sitting there with its pick of the litter. Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis or C.J. Stroud. pic.twitter.com/BS3A1CjR14

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 17, 2023

What does that mean?

For starters, it’ll be interesting to see who the Texans and Cardinals are forced to select if they don’t move down. My guess would still be that Houston takes Will Anderson but given the hype around Tyree Wilson, it’s safe to assume Wilson either goes second or third overall.

I’d be surprised if the Cardinals took Jalen Carter because this is a franchise with a rookie Head Coach and a first-time GM, needing to launch a culture reset. I’m not convinced gambling on Carter will be the right move for them.

I noted on the blog some comments from Michael Lombardi over the weekend. A lot of what he said chimes with Schefter’s comments:

— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later”

— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem

— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3

— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1

— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL

— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’

— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick

— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3

With all this information to hand, here are some thoughts and predictions…

Like I said earlier, I still think Will Anderson will be drafted before Tyree Wilson. If two defensive players go in the top-three, they are the pair I would probably expect. I wouldn’t rule out one of the top-two cornerbacks for Arizona but I suspect they’ll push that need into day two.

I think I’m going to lean on Lombardi and stick with Will Levis at #4 even if C.J. Stroud is available. As he said, Levis is the one who can start in 2023 and the Colts need someone who can do that. If the Texans are passing on Stroud at #2, I don’t think it’s that far fetched that Indianapolis would too. I’m not completely tied to that and it’s very possible the Colts just see a very talented player in Stroud they are prepared to take a chance on. Yet Levis — both physically and in terms of his readiness to play — feels like a better fit.

That could mean at #5 both Stroud and Anthony Richardson would be on the board. The consensus two top edge rushers would be gone. Peter King reported on Monday that many within the league expect Seattle to select Jalen Carter but I think by now most people are aware why I don’t think that’ll happen.

That said, Lance Zierlein has insisted the Seahawks won’t take a QB when asked about it. Lombardi also predicted they would take a pass rusher. It’s just hard to imagine who that would be if it isn’t Anderson or Wilson, unless they seriously considered Carter which, again, I’m very dubious of.

If Stroud lasted to #5 I think it’d be incredibly difficult for the Seahawks to pass on that opportunity. Without any pressure to start him immediately, it’d be an ideal chance to let a talented player sit for a year. It could, legitimately, start to look like the same kind of torch-passing between Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes. You can never compare anyone to Mahomes seriously — but there were flashes against Georgia where Stroud looked like him. There’s a long way to go from ‘looking like him’ to reaching even half of his NFL performance — but it’d be a tantalising prospect for the Seahawks to develop someone of Stroud’s quality.

I also think in this instance you’d still have to consider the incredible upside of Richardson.

If they are truly in a one-track mind for defense, it would potentially explain the official-30 visit for Devon Witherspoon. He might be next man up if Anderson and Wilson are gone defensively. Yet for all the talk of what a rare opportunity this is — and not wanting to pick here again any time soon — is a cornerback pick at #5 really going to be a thing? Especially with their track record at corner, with a deep corner class, a year removed from finding a stud in round five?

Wouldn’t you run the risk of not doing enough to properly address the defensive front, without setting up the future at quarterback either?

Things are getting interesting with just over a week to go and unlike the speculation about what teams will do from other sources — when someone like Schefter speaks with this degree of confidence and certainty, we should listen.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Earlier today Peter King dedicated a chunk of his latest ‘Football Morning in America‘ article to draft speculation. This included stuff that’s become increasingly common. Bryce Young to the Panthers. Tyree Wilson potentially jumping Will Anderson. Draft Twitter liking Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than teams.

He then came onto everyone’s favourite subject. Jalen Carter and the Seahawks:

Lots of teams look at the fifth slot—Seattle, with Mr. Positive, Pete Carroll, as coach—and automatically think it’s a good shot. It may well be. Detroit, at six, and Chicago and Philly, at nine and 10, also seem to be in play. Who takes the risk on Carter, and who gambles on the potential reward, is going to be one of the big stories of round one.

King then added:

It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick.

I’ve already had people sending me tweets asking for reaction. My thoughts haven’t changed — and won’t change — based on what other teams think the Seahawks are going to do. I’ll recap why in a bit.

Firstly though, I wanted to highlight King’s 2022 mock draft a year ago — where he had the Seahawks taking Kayvon Thibodeaux after trading down:

*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

Perfect Pete Carroll pick. Thibodeaux’s an LA kid, he’ll be supremely ticked off at not being the first edge off the board and falling this far, and Carroll knows how to feed into the mental game that fuels players. That, plus Thibodeaux would be the kind of top talent that the Seahawks never get to pick in the draft because they’re always picking at the bottom of the round, or later. Thibodeaux, if he works out, would be a good pick for a team devoid of a top-end pass-rusher, in a division with some serious passing games.

I’d like this pick, in this spot, for Seattle. I’m not alone. “Thibodeaux at 13 would be a coup for Seattle,” one GM told me Sunday when I apprised him of my diabolical plan to send the Oregon edge down the draft board.

Thibodeaux is described as a ‘perfect Pete Carroll pick’ and there’s a quote from a GM praising the fit. Here’s a quote 12 months later from Dave Wyman, co-host of the John Schneider show on 710 Seattle Sports, on Thibodeaux and the Seahawks:

“That was a guy that they just weren’t going to draft. Probably in the second round or at some point. That was just a guy they weren’t very high on”

So a year ago, Thibodeaux was the perfect pick. Ideal Carroll project. But the Seahawks, actually, had no interest. There’s a cautionary tale there.

Here are some anonymous scouting sources courtesy of a report from Bob McGinn discussing Thibodeaux a year ago:

“He’s the best pure pass rusher if he plays hard all the time and acts like he likes football,” said one scout. “Does he like playing in the NFL, or like the NFL lifestyle and what that entails? If you put Hutchinson’s heart in Thibodeaux’s body then you’d have Myles Garrett.”

Described by a fourth scout who interviewed him as “very opinionated, not afraid to speak his mind on what he’s seen in life and his perception of himself and the world.”

I get the sense there’s a narrative among teams and the media that the Seahawks are willing to take a chance on practically anyone. I think this is a mistake.

When the Seahawks drafted Frank Clark — in the late second round, it has to be said, not the top-10 — there was a concerning allegation of domestic violence attached to Clark. The Seahawks claimed they’d done extensive research on Clark and were comfortable taking him.

The thing is, nobody questioned Clark’s football character, passion for the game or work ethic. Was he a character concern? Yes, absolutely. But he was also a competitor and as we know, that is integral for Carroll.

Look at other players who were interesting characters, difficult personalities, outspoken, had baggage or an interesting background. Bruce Irvin, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman. There are others. They were all 100% heart-and-soul types when it came to football.

Carroll could live with the challenge of coaching Lynch because when game-time came around, you knew you’d get every sinew from him.

I suspect the reason they were reportedly against drafting Thibodeaux is for the reasons mentioned above, that were widely reported at the time. Does he love the game? Are you going to get everything from him?

It certainly wasn’t a talent issue. So there had to be a reason and this is the information we have to work with.

There are similar questions lingering over Jalen Carter. From the reported poor practise habits, the way he hasn’t taken to coaching, the poor conditioning hinting at a questionable work ethic and application to his career, the feeling that he basically did what he wanted at Georgia in terms of attending meetings and workouts and the pattern of mistake-making that led to legal trouble.

Here’s what McGinn’s sources say about Carter:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.”

“Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”

This is why I’ve been so confident in suggesting the Seahawks won’t take Carter. He is immensely talented, as is Thibodeaux. Yet I don’t think either are ‘Carroll guys’ as King and his sources imply. I think Carroll is always willing to give anyone a second, third or maybe even fourth chance. But you’ve got to fit the ‘always compete’ mantra. Based on what we’re hearing with Carter, as we heard from Thibodeaux, I don’t think there’s a match.

Look who they had in for a visit last week. Devon Witherspoon. A player who has had to clamber up from the JUCO routes and ‘no star’ recruiting status, has played a ton of snaps and shown rapid improvement for Illinois and when he gets on the field — despite being a smaller cornerback — he wants to hit you in the face and knock you on your arse.

That’s a Carroll guy. And if Witherspoon had a few quirky personality traits (I don’t know if he does or not) I doubt they’d take him off the board. His love for the game, his commitment to it and the way he plays is perfect for Seattle’s preferences.

I see that same approach from Will Anderson and the quarterbacks. Thus, I think at #5 there will be ample alternatives to Carter.

Someone will take Carter, just as someone was willing to take Thibodeaux early. I just don’t think it’ll be Seattle.

For the avoidance of any doubt my position remains the same as it’s been for several weeks. I think Will Anderson is probably their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board, I think there’s a very realistic chance they’ll take Anthony Richardson instead. C.J. Stroud potentially falling is something I need to spend some time thinking about. I think Will Levis is locked into the Colts at #4 and I don’t think the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter. If I’m wrong about Carter, I’ll own it.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Michael Lombardi had some interesting things to say on VSiN this weekend. I’d recommend watching the whole video, which starts with a Rich Gannon interview. Eventually, Lombardi shares his betting advice (and therefore, his prediction) for the top picks.

Here are the highlights:

— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later.”

— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem. I think this is a fair point but it perhaps underestimates how much teams are willing to look at projection/upside plus need at the most important position. After all, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen had flaws too.

— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3. I’ve never thought they would do either. Chris Ballard has clearly judged this class very similarly and has decided to pick whoever is there at #4 who he rates the highest.

— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1. Regulars will know I’ve been projecting Levis to the Colts for a long time and see it as an ideal fit. I think this is why Chris Mortensen said Levis won’t get out of the top-five. If you really study the class and the Colts, the #4 pick has felt like the floor for Levis (despite all those mocks two weeks ago having him dropping into the late first). Lombardi mentions that of Levis, Stroud and Richardson — Levis is the only player who can start a game in 2023. That’s the point of the projection.

— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL. This is something we spoke a lot about during the season. However, personally, I felt like I saw enough against Georgia to believe he can excel as a creative, improvising playmaker. He needs time. Ideally for Stroud, he would sit for a year. If he gets that opportunity, watch out.

— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’. I would caution against that line of thinking. It’s how you end up drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes.

— Hendon Hooker is a ‘great leader, great kid, great pocket presence’ but Lombardi notes that the Tennessee offense is a half-field read scheme. Anthony Richardson is described as not being an ‘alpha’ but he’s a ‘good kid’.

— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick.

— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3. I’d be very surprised by that. Arizona needs a culture reset. Even if you’re Carter’s biggest fan, the Cardinals are not a good fit for a player with major question marks about his attitude, effort, football character, decision making and conditioning. They also have a rookie Head Coach and GM. It feels like a recipe for disaster. I do think Lombardi opens the door for Arizona not being able to trade down though and the top three being Young, Anderson and Tyree Wilson.

— He finishes by saying he thinks Seattle and Detroit will take ‘defensive ends or rushers’. I’m not sure who he thinks they’ll take in those slots if Anderson and Wilson are both gone. He might think Carter but personally I think he’s a very unlikely fit for Seattle and Detroit (aka, ‘Always Compete’ and ‘we want people who will eat your kneecaps’). I also think perhaps Lombardi is overlooking that while Stroud and Richardson might not be ready to start in year one, wouldn’t they be ideally placed in Seattle and Detroit to sit and learn? Isn’t that what they need?

These are interesting thoughts and worth paying attention to. Lombardi is connected, doesn’t mince his words and knows what he’s talking about.

My biggest takeaway from it all is that it might not be that unlikely for Stroud to last to #5, something that was unthinkable a few weeks ago. While I’m sure the Seahawks are very interested in drafting someone like Will Anderson if possible, it’d be quite a decision if they passed on someone like Stroud to take whichever defensive lineman is next on their list at #5.

If you missed my new video mock draft earlier, check it out here:

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)