This mock is heavily influenced by three things.

1. Pete Carroll speaking honestly about the need to improve the defensive front seven

2. My conversation with Jim Nagy on Tuesday

3. An interview John Schneider gave to 710 Seattle Sports this week

Everyone can see the Seahawks need to upgrade on the defensive line and at linebacker. The fact Carroll spent considerable time publicly stating it has influenced me in this latest projection.

Jim Nagy made me consider a couple of things after our conversation. The key one was his point about the Manning Passing Academy, which he attended last year. He says all the big names were there barring C.J. Stroud and the two players who stood out physically way beyond everyone else were Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.

We are about to embark on a series of events where Levis and Richardson will be able to show-off their physical prowess. Don’t underestimate the impact this will have.

The other thing was the players he mentioned when I asked for a 2023 answer to Tariq Woolen. He suggested Army’s Andre Carter and Georgia Tech’s Keion White — both defensive linemen. Although Woolen lasted well into day three, I wonder if the Seahawks will draft either of these two to try and find a unique difference maker — an X-factor — for their pass rush.

Then there was Schneider saying their approach to the draft last year was to ignore need and focus on adding talent. It produced an excellent 2022 class and you’d have to think they’ll create a similar plan this year.

This is just one proposal, one mock draft. I will do several before April. This isn’t definitively what I think is going to happen. It’s a conversation starter. In a week where the Head Coach spoke openly and honestly about the dramatic improvement needed in the defensive front seven — I wanted to show what that could mean.

Here’s the mock, it’s a two-rounder with thoughts below…

The mock draft

The big trade at #1 overall

I have Carolina trading from #9 in a deal with Chicago for the #1 pick. In return the Bears get the 61st overall pick plus the Panthers’ first round picks in 2024 and 2025.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Why might the Panthers out-bid teams here and tempt the Bears to drop out of the top-five? David Tepper is not an inactive owner. They’ve been chasing a quarterback splash for years. I think Chicago would ideally stay in the top-five but if the Panthers offer their first round picks in 2024 and 2025, plus additional compensation, I’m not sure the Colts will match that. It would depend on how much Indy values one specific quarterback over the others. Why Stroud? Tepper has been seeking special for some time and if he watched Stroud against Georgia, the best team in college football, he would’ve seen what special looks like. The Panthers have a better roster than we think and play in a weak division. A quality QB could make them a serious threat, so expect a bold strategy to try and get the top pick.

#2 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
There’s been a lot of nonsense spoken about Levis — a player handed a hospital-pass of a situation in Kentucky. He played behind a shocking offensive line, with few weapons in a loaded SEC. In 2021 when he played for Liam Coen and had a second round receiver, he looked fantastic. He has everything pro-teams are looking for in a signal caller, has excellent upside and is a prototype passer.

#3 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Many will have dreamed of having Anderson in Seattle and there’s now a very real chance he’ll be playing at Lumen Field every season, only for the Cardinals.

#4 Indianapolis — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
As with Levis, there’s been far too much focus on the negatives with Richardson. Here’s what he offers — incredible physical tools, superstar potential and good character. It’s a winning formula. Yes he’s inexperienced and will need time but his upside is through the roof. Someone is going to take a chance on Richardson and if he’s managed properly he could be a special talent.

#5 Seattle — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I am worried about the reported character concerns surrounding Carter, which I think are connected to the issues with his conditioning that surfaced against LSU and Ohio State. However, we know the Carroll Seahawks. We know they’re willing to roll the dice and back themselves. We know they’re attracted to blue-chip players. Carter carries a big question mark but he also might be the most talented player in the draft. However much concern I have, he is exactly what they need up front. They’d have to get his conditioning on point otherwise he’ll be stuck playing 40% of the snaps but if you can get him going, watch out. If they want a player who can be a factor, he’s a factor. One thing I will say — Fletcher Cox’s scouting report from 2012 is quite similar to the way we’re talking about Carter. The top three physically impressive QB’s being off the board makes this an easier call for John Schneider but I think he’ll have a lot of interest in Stroud, Levis and Richardson.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
I was reviewing Wilson’s tape recently and it hit me. We all know he has great length and size. I just focused on his frame for one whole game and I’ve not seen a body type like his before. He is unique. His testing will be key because he won’t go sixth overall purely due to long arms and a great body. If he can show quickness, agility and explosive traits, he will be seen as special.

#7 Las Vegas — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
This will be the suggestion that has everyone howling because the mainstream media have convinced everyone that Young is destined to go first overall. Let’s be clear — Young is a brilliant talent. Putting him seventh overall is hardly a damning review. I think people are underestimating how teams will view his size. He’s supposedly up into the 190lbs range and after downing a couple of jugs of water, I’m sure he’ll sneak above 200lbs at the combine. The reality is though that he’s smaller than anyone who has ever been talked about going this early in the draft and teams will worry about durability. Especially when there are three other ‘prototype’ quarterbacks who will also receive high grades. This would be a good spot for Young in this offense with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to throw to.

#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot has shown he’s the type of GM who likes to go BPA. I’m not sure you can pass up arguably the best player in the draft just because Tyler Allgeier had a decent rookie season. Imagine Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London on the same field. Whew.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
He’s a pussycat in the running game, he lacks college production despite playing on a loaded D-line, his pressure rate in 2022 was only 10% and I fear he’s an athlete who ‘gets by’ rather than someone who is pissed off to be great. That said, his size and athleticism will have coaches believing they can get him going and deliver on his potential.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
A Rolls Royce of a defender who is so versatile and can do a bit of everything. He is going to rise and rise throughout this process.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
This would be a perfect pick for the Titans. Mayer is one of the best prospects in the draft and will be a very good player early in his career.

#12 Houston v/CLE) — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Mayer would be an ideal fit for the Texans but failing that, Johnston has the physical profile to dominate the combine and go this early.

#13 NY Jets — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
So underrated. He shut down Will Anderson. Enough said.

#14 New England — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
He’s such an intelligent player with great physical tools and he could be a really good NFL corner.

#15 Green Bay — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
When he blows up the combine he’ll finally be taken seriously.

#16 Washington — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
A highly competitive player with a great personality and maturity.

#17 Pittsburgh — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
In an attempt to make life easier for Kenny Pickett, why not add a receiver he helped to win the Biletnikoff in 2021?

#18 Detroit — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Hits like a hammer and gives absolutely everything as a competitor in coverage. A very typical Detroit-type pick.

#19 Tampa Bay — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
A long, lean and competitive cornerback. I think teams will really like him.

#20 Seattle — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
The Seahawks need players in their front seven who can play in attack-mode — players with physical traits who have shown they can impact games. Sanders played most of his snaps at Arkansas as a conventional linebacker but was also used to rush the edge — registering 9.5 sacks. He has excellent size at 6-5 and 230lbs (with room to add more bulk) and he’s a former big-time recruit who initially played for Alabama before transferring. He jumped a 35 inch vertical at SPARQ and ran a 4.31 short shuttle. He is aggressive, hits hard, has an old-school mentality, flies to the ball-carrier and most importantly he plays forwards and attacks. He might end up being a ‘must-have’ for Seattle, given the way they’re talking.

#21 Miami — forfeited
They needed this pick.

#22 LA Chargers — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Flowers is an incredibly talented player who could go earlier than this. His ability to change direction and accelerate is the best I’ve seen since starting the blog in 2008.

#23 Baltimore — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
He has a sixth gear that allows him to create late separation and it can be deadly on downfield shots.

#24 Minnesota — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
A very athletic, long and lean edge rusher who is comfortable dropping into coverage as a 3-4 OLB.

#25 Jacksonville — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
Reminds me a lot of Tyler Lockett.

#26 NY Giants — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
JSN’s stock could be impacted by a lost season to injury and question marks about his speed.

#27 Dallas — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Skoronski is difficult to assess. He has to kick inside due to a lack of length and he can be out-leveraged due to his short arms. Is he powerful enough? There are things to like though — he’s a natural lineman with reasonable technique and he has NFL bloodlines.

#28 Cincinnati — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
An absolute mountain of a man who has quickly become one of my favourite players in the draft. For his size, his mobility is out of this world. I love him as a prospect.

#29 Denver (v/SF) — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
Looks like he could play the lead in a Super Hero movie and has good, powerful reps on tape against the better blockers in this class.

#30 Buffalo — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Too many injury and health issues, not enough consistency. Bresee is a great athlete but there are a lot of question marks.

#31 Kansas City — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
An extremely underrated player and the closest thing to Aaron Donald since 2013. A smart team will not be put off by his lack of size and length and will take a shot on his talent.

#32 Philadelphia — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Gibbs warrants consideration here as a major X-factor talent. He’s a tremendous receiver and could be reliably used in the passing game and during two-minute drills. At times he carried Alabama last season and was a threat to score every time he touched the ball. If he doesn’t run in the 4.2’s or 4.3’s it’ll be a surprise.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — JL Skinner (S, Boise State)
The closest thing to Kam since Kam.

#34 Houston — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
A brilliant athlete and a complete tight end — teams will love him.

#35 Arizona — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
The Cardinals continue to build up their defensive front with a player who may be unorthodox but finished the season with 13.5 sacks.

#36 Indianapolis — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
He’s just such a dynamic playmaker and I think a team like Houston will view him as a (new) QB’s best friend.

#37 LA Rams — Broderick Jones (G, Georgia)
A player who can step in and help secure LA’s interior offensive line. Needs to sort his technique out.

#38 Seattle — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
An incredible athlete at 290lbs who blew up so many plays in 2022 and could be a star at the Senior Bowl. He carried Kenny McIntosh downfield on a wheel route in coverage at his size which is staggering. He plays with great intensity and physicality and his motor (and conditioning) is on the opposite end of the scale to Jalen Carter’s. It’s enticing to imagine what he could become in time — White legitimately has the upside and potential to become a star. If you want to get impact players with size, disruption and athleticism up front — pairing Carter and White together could set you up for years to come.

#39 Las Vegas — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Ringo is a great athlete with amazing size but he gets beat far too often — on both deep routes and shorter inside slants.

#40 Carolina — Rasheed Rice (WR, SMU)
I’m looking forward to seeing how he tests because the tape gets you going.

#41 New Orleans — Chris Smith (S, Georgia)
He had such a good season for the Bulldogs — flying around as a free safety, running up to the line and hitting with a powerful punch. I think someone will fall in love with him.

#42 Tennessee — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
I’ve always thought he was just steady but the Georgia game suggested he might be ‘steady’ even against top opponents and that has some appeal.

#43 Cleveland — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
He’s had a few injury issues and now that he’s missing the Senior Bowl it makes me wonder if he might last a bit longer than originally thought.

#44 NY Jets — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
Simpson did not have a good 2022 season and will rely on good testing numbers to stick in round two.

#45 Atlanta — K.J. Henry (EDGE, Clemson)
Of all Clemson’s D-liners, he was the most disruptive in 2022.

#46 Green Bay — Zach Harrison (DE, Ohio State)
Harrison will go to the combine, put on a show and some teams will throw out the lack of production and inconsistent play and believe they can make him a starter.

#47 New England — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
He’s such an underrated player with great size, athleticism and soft hands. He can play outside or as a big slot. The Giants double-dip at receiver and add a big target to their offense here.

#48 Washington — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
I’ve always felt underwhelmed watching him.

#49 Detroit — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
An elite athlete and a great character but he’s the definition of a ‘tweener’.

#50 Pittsburgh — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
He’s a good player but he is what he is — a big powerful center.

#51 Tampa Bay — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
This is a bit early for my liking but Torrence will fit certain schemes and this is one of them (or at least it has been).

#52 Miami — Siaki Ika (DT, Baylor)
On some plays you absolutely love him. On others you think, ‘how is he such a liability vs the run at that size?’

#53 Seattle — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
This is not an immediate need. However, two of Seattle’s tight ends are free agents after the 2023 season and Will Dissly has just picked up another injury. They might invest in someone for the future and there are good TE’s in this draft. Teams are going to love Kraft. He has great size, surprising speed, elusiveness and he has fantastic athletic bloodlines. His blocking is on point and it won’t be a surprise if he goes on to have a very productive NFL career. John Schneider said a year ago they didn’t feel any pressure to reach for need and in this range they might think Kraft is too good to pass up.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Kenny McIntosh (RB, Georgia)
Kirby Smart called McIntosh a bad MF so that’s good enough for me.

#55 LA Chargers — Byron Young (DE, Alabama)
Young is another underrated player who just created so much disruption up front. He can anchor and play the run but he also bursts into the backfield and impacts the pocket.

#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Steve Avila (G, TCU)
I thought he had a fantastic season and thoroughly deserves to go to a team that loves to kick your arse.

#57 Jacksonville — Isaiah Foskey (EDGE, Notre Dame)
I can’t get that excited about Foskey and his 9.9% pressure rate in 2022 is very ‘meh’.

#58 NY Giants — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
He will test brilliantly at the combine and that’ll give his stock a bump. Doesn’t have great size though.

#59 Dallas — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
Ideal size, explosive traits, good in the passing game — Charbonnet is the real deal and would be a good replacement for Zeke Elliott if he moves on.

#60 Cincinnati — Ji’Ayir Brown (S, Penn State)
The vocal and emotional leader at Penn State — Brown is also a great athlete with a knack for interceptions.

#61 Chicago (v/CAR) — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can anchor the line but also provide some much needed interior rush.

#62 Buffalo — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I was underwhelmed watching him but plenty of people have him graded higher than I do. He plays a premium position I guess.

#63 Kansas City — Andre Carter (EDGE, Army)
He has such enticing length, size and agility but he needs technical work and some patience to reach his maximum potential. That could keep him on the board into this range.

#64 Philadelphia — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
He’s a praying mantis with his length and athleticism but he had a poor 2022 season and he needs work. If it clicks into place, he can be really good.

Seattle’s picks

Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)

Thoughts on the Seahawks’ picks

Personally it would be frustrating to come out of the Russell Wilson trade without a big investment in the future at the quarterback position and I’m not convinced Geno Smith will ever be able to take this team to the promise land. However, with Stroud, Levis and Richardson off the board your hand might be forced, although I do really like Bryce Young as well.

There’s a serious risk/reward factor with Jalen Carter. People assumed Todd McShay’s report over character concerns implied that Carter was a bad person. I don’t think it’s that. It’s more a case of effort, attitude, commitment. He was telling the media last April his priority was improving conditioning so he could increase his snap percentage. Yet in the biggest games of his season, he looked absolutely exhausted. Embarrassingly so, he admitted. If he isn’t getting in shape when there’s millions on the line — despite stating it was his key focus last year — teams will be wary about how motivated he’ll to improve that situation with a big fat guaranteed contract.

Schneider mentioned in his interview yesterday that they spend considerable time now assessing how a player speaks — even citing press conference interviews online (which was reassuring given it’s something we’ve done for a while to try and get intel on who a player is). This is an area where Carter does not excel.

For more on this, watch this video.

If you’re going to draft Carter your staff are going to need a game-plan to get the best out of him and get him working on his stamina. You are also going to need tone-setters in the position group. You don’t want to draft Carter and have him be the big man on campus. You want seasoned vets pushing him. You need to create an environment where he won’t want to let his guys down. That’s a key reason why I would consider trading for or signing someone like Da’Ron Payne. He’s been a presence at Alabama and Washington and along with Al Woods and potentially Shelby Harris, you have a leadership core in place.

A defensive front three of Woods, Payne and Carter would be impactful and can be a factor in games — just as Carroll wants.

Put Drew Sanders at linebacker with his 6-5 and 230lbs frame (with the potential to get up to 240lbs) and let him fly to the ball carrier. He is an attack-minded, move-forwards player with legit speed and agility. He can hit with impact, he can be a playmaker and on key downs he can rush the edge.

Keion White has the outstanding athleticism, size and motor to get into the mix too. You would, in one off-season, create a very exciting looking defensive front. With this much potential disruption from the interior and with Sanders at linebacker, it can only help the likes of Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe working the edge.

Is it too much focus on defense? Listen to Carroll speak. Watch the defense play. This unit needs serious investment. These moves at least create a plan where you can imagine the front seven becoming a much greater factor in games. Why not go all-in to improve the unit if the top quarterbacks are out of reach?

I wanted one of the two second round picks to be similar to the Ken Walker pick a year ago. An offensive player who isn’t a desperate need but is too good to pass-up. Schneider specifically talked about not reaching for need. I was torn between the running back, receiver and tight end for this selection but there’s enough depth at receiver and running back to wait until rounds 3-5. Tucker Kraft is flying under the radar and is as good as any of the TE’s in this class not named Michael Mayer. I can well imagine him being drafted with 2024 in mind — when you might’ve lost or moved on from pending free agents Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson and potentially Will Dissly.

I think a mock like this shows why nobody should be uncomfortable taking a quarterback at #5. You could still add defensive players like Sanders, White then another such as Andre Carter. If you were able to sign someone like Da’Ron Payne as well, that’d be a decent haul.

Fans might question the lack of interior offensive linemen included in the mock but I’ll highlight again that the Rams have a way of doing things on the O-line. Seattle is copying their scheme. They’ve taken college tackles and kicked them inside to guard and they’ve used a certain type of cost-effective center. I’m not convinced there’ll be a big splash on the O-line this year but we’ll see.

It’s worth noting blog favourite Sedrick Van Pran opted to return to Georgia for the 2023 season. He would’ve been a top-40 pick.

It might be that the Seahawks look later in the draft for O-line options. Jim Nagy suggested there will be some good players at the Senior Bowl to monitor, including Old Dominion’s Nick Saldiveri — who sounds just like the kind of tackle convert the Rams love to kick inside to guard.

Anyway — let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

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This week Pete Carroll talked about impact players and the need for a defensive line that can be a factor in games.

There’s no doubt the Seahawks have ample draft stock to try and rectify this issue. However, it’s unlikely that a couple of rookies are going to transform the unit alone.

We’ve seen it numerous times, not just in Seattle either. Quinnen Williams had one of the best seasons in recent memory at Alabama before turning pro. It’s taken him three years to find that same level in the NFL.

Closer to home — Boye Mafe’s physical talent warranted spending the #40 pick on him a year ago. Despite being an older player (24) he still spent most of his rookie season watching Bruce Irvin take the bulk of the snaps.

The Seahawks will be able to add young talent to develop on defense in this draft. Yet if they’re looking for immediate results, they’ll need to go further.

If the Seahawks want players who can be a factor, do they have to consider the veteran market and a potential trade to complement what they do in the draft?

There are a few reasons to consider it.

Firstly, this is a very top-heavy draft. The difference in talent between the players taken at #20 and #45 is going to be marginal. It means at pick #20 and #38, you might be settling on a player rather than feeling like you’re getting amazing value.

Secondly, if the Seahawks really like one of the quarterbacks at #5 — it’s going to make it harder to get an ‘impact’ defensive lineman in this draft who won’t require a lot of patience and seasoning like Mafe.

Thirdly, even if you do draft a top defender at #5, you can’t just place them in a rotation with Al Woods and Shelby Harris and think that’s job done. Neither can you continue to just sign mid-range or cheap veterans and think that’ll cut it. The talent difference between Seattle and San Francisco was highlighted by Carroll as problematic. To close the gap they’re going to need a mix of proven quality and exciting youth.

I think there are two potential targets for the Seahawks.

The first is Washington’s Da’Ron Payne.

Practically every fan base in the league is calling for their team to try and sign the pending free agent. However, after a career year, the Commanders’ GM Martin Mayhew said last week he can’t imagine letting him walk.

Carson Wentz will be cut at some point, freeing up $26m. Most of this money will likely go towards franchising Payne at a projected amount of $18.9m.

If you want him, you’re likely going to have to trade for him.

I suspect Washington will be open to offers. They’ve already paid locally born Jonathan Allen and will need to consider second contracts for Montez Sweat and Chase Young. They can’t pay everyone on the D-line. Getting something in return for Payne is a lot more acceptable than simply letting him walk. They would also recoup the $18.9m in a trade, freeing up cap space to potentially pursue a new quarterback like Derek Carr.

Payne is a good age (he only turns 26 in May) and recorded 11.5 sacks and 18 TFL’s (third most in the league) in 2022. This is the kind of player Seattle needs. Someone who can get into the backfield and impact games.

If you make the trade you could potentially sign him to a four-year extension worth about $20m per year. It’s expensive but given you’re willing to give Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams $18m each in 2023, it feels reasonable.

You’d be entering a sellers market and Washington would expect a big offer. It would probably take #20 or #38, which will set off alarm bells given Seattle’s history with expensive trades. The Seahawks have not found joy trading away first round picks for veteran players in the past. It’d be a lot more palatable if the Commanders were willing to accept one of the two second rounders than #20.

It’s worth noting Washington are without their third round pick this year due to the Wentz trade so they might be open to adding more stock — especially if they want to try and trade up from #16 to draft a young quarterback.

Nevertheless, trading for Payne immediately upgrades your line. When the league year opens, six weeks before the draft, one of the biggest needs would be addressed. You would also have plenty of draft stock remaining to add youth to your D-line, seriously addressing a massive need.

Imagine Payne teaming up with Jalen Carter, with Al Woods in the middle. Suddenly that looks like a serious defensive front. Alternatively if the Seahawks take a quarterback at #5, trading for Payne means you’re not going to be left relying on developmental defensive tackles later on. You would be able to get your quarterback of the future and add a stud D-liner.

Sounds attractive, right?

The other potential trade target is DeForest Buckner with the Colts.

Chicago’s media are speculating Matt Eberflus could go back in for his former D-liner for as little as a day two pick.

Indianapolis currently only has $5.7m in effective cap space. They’ll save $17.2m by cutting Matt Ryan but there aren’t many other levers to save money.

Trading Buckner would net them a cool $19.75m.

Based on his performance there’s little motivation for the Colts to give Buckner away. He’s been one of the most consistent and best interior defenders for multiple seasons. He had nine sacks in 2022 and received an 82.3 PFF grade.

There is one thing to consider though.

General Manager Chris Ballard is under a lot of pressure to land a top quarterback and drive the franchise forward, having had to settle for a series of ageing veterans over the last few seasons. The local Indianapolis media are already quizzing him about trading up from #4 to get the top pick and guarantee the QB he really wants — to make a statement of intent at the position.

They have no additional picks in the draft and are actually picking later in round three after spending their native selection on Matt Ryan, before acquiring #80 from Washington in the Wentz trade. If they intend to move up, trading Buckner for another pick or two might be helpful to create some extra stock.

Of course if Eberflus and Chicago are interested — the Colts could simply include Buckner in a package to move from #4 to #1.

We’ve seen trades like this before for players performing well. Calais Campbell might’ve been 33 when the Jaguars moved him to Baltimore for a fifth round pick but he was coming off a 10.5 sack season, having recorded 25 sacks in his final two years in Jacksonville.

Being four years younger will no doubt make Buckner a more expensive trade but few people thought Campbell would be available for merely a fifth rounder when he was dealt, so is it that unrealistic that Buckner could be had for a late second?

You’d be trading for proven quality but on a shorter term scale. There are two years left on his current contract which is worth about $20m per season.

If the Seahawks are serious about improving their defensive front they have to consider these types of moves. They can’t rely purely on rookies and depth. They need quality, not just a younger guy or another journeyman on a $5m deal.

Most of the top teams in the NFL have forked out for blue-chippers in recent years.

The Bills paid a handsome sum to sign Von Miller and traded for Stefon Diggs. The 49ers struck a deal for Trent Williams then paid him a king’s ransom and more recently acquired Christian McCaffrey. Philadelphia traded for A.J. Brown and Darius Slay. The Bengals spent big money a year ago to upgrade their O-line and the year prior spent a lot to add Trey Hendrickson and D. J. Reader. Kansas City traded for Orlando Brown and Frank Clark before signing Joe Thuney at guard. The Chargers invested in center Corey Linsley and traded for Khalil Mack. The Dolphins are a better team after trading for Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. Back in the day the Giants acquired Leonard Williams for a third rounder.

You need to be prepared to make a splash when the right opportunity arises. Two first round picks on a box safety isn’t advised. Using a solitary first rounder to acquire 25-year-old A.J. Brown instead of relying on a rookie is a smart move, though, by the Eagles.

Having a lot of picks creates flexibility. Essentially you have to avoid treading water. There’s a difference between having some good players and some potential and having enough legit difference makers to trouble good teams.

The only way to avoid needing to do this is to find an elite quarterback of the level of Patrick Mahomes, who can cover a number of warts. Without that player on your roster, you simply have to add top-end talent — not just middling talent or developmental potential.

I’m wary of making a big trade because it’s been such a failure for Seattle in the past. But look at the opportunity. Add a defensive stud six weeks before the draft when the league year opens and you can put your feet up and let the #5 pick come to you. Jalen Carter or Will Anderson? You add even more to your defensive front. Want to go quarterback? You’ve already brought in a D-line stud to address that need.

And you’d still have plenty of draft stock to add an infusion of youth.

Like I said, watching a D-line next season where you’ve got Jalen Carter and Da’Ron Payne/DeForest Buckner lining up next to each other feels like a genuine step in the right direction. Simply adding Carter and hoping he can be the cure-all isn’t going to be enough. Or if you find that quarterback who can be the future of your franchise with your top pick, adding Payne or Buckner enables you to still upgrade in the trenches.

It’s food for thought and I’m not arguing the Seahawks should definitely do this. It’s probably something that warrants a conversation, though.

I’ll be posting my new mock draft tomorrow. In the meantime if you haven’t checked it out already, please watch my interview with the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy. Also, check out the off-season preview video with Jeff Simmons.

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Time for one of my favourite conversations of the year — an interview with Reese’s Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy. We discuss numerous players attending Mobile this year in a 30 minute conversation.

Check it out and if you haven’t already, please subscribe to my YouTube channel. Tomorrow I’m hosting a live stream with Jeff Simmons at 2pm PT.

The interview with Jim is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams.

Pete Carroll’s end of season press conferences are typically quite revealing and provide a roadmap to the off-season. That was especially so today.

It started with the usual conversation with Brock Huard & Mike Salk on Seattle Sports, in what was a good interview where several of the more pressing questions for the future were put to Carroll.

Things started strangely though with the following exchange:

Salk: “For the final time this year, good morning Coach, how are we?”

Carroll: “It’s the last time you’re going to say something like that to me.”

Salk: “I know, maybe ever, who knows?”

I had a few people reach out about what this means and listening back, I don’t really know. For all the speculation that Carroll was considering retirement, I doubt he would’ve done two long press conferences today if he intended to call it quits in a few days.

I can only guess this is something to do with the Pete Carroll show itself? It was a bit confusing to hear this back-and-forth at the start.

I thought Carroll struck a good tone in his interview and that continued into his press conference later on. There was no rhetoric about being ‘close’ as we’ve heard in the past when it felt forced. This was as honest as a coach could be without upsetting anyone.

Carroll acknowledged the ‘distance’ between Seattle’s roster and San Francisco’s and stated the need to have great players up front. He didn’t sugarcoat anything with the defense and highlighted the clear areas that need to be improved.

This was refreshing to hear.

Carroll repeatedly referenced how badly they need to have better players up front. He hammered that point home in both media appearances. In previous years he’s dropped subtle hints towards off-season priorities. There was no subtlety here. It was shouted from the rooftops that the Seahawks need to add D-line talent.

He mentioned needing impact players and “guys who are a factor“. He declared, “we have to become more dynamic up front.”

I had two thoughts as I was listening.

The first was to jump to the immediate conclusion that this means they’ll be drafting a defensive player with their top pick. That thought was reinforced when Carroll said, “we’ve got our guy” in reference to Geno Smith.

I’ve seen media members already tweeting that this means D-line all the way in the draft but I’d caution against that. Carroll is very generous in his final press conference and he gives bits of information to provide talking points over the next few weeks.

However, it feels a bit too obvious to think he just laid out Seattle’s specific off-season approach in a public announcement.

Thus, my second thought was to consider some of the other things he said. Carroll went to great lengths to emphasise the excitement of the draft was as much about their other picks in the first three rounds, not just the fifth overall pick.

Then later on he said:

“The QB’s in this draft are extraordinary players. You don’t get opportunities like this.”

He also left the door open for talks over trading down.

When you add all this together, he’s dipped his toe in every pond. Clearly upgrading the front seven is a massive priority and we can all see that. However, they could easily spend four high picks on the front seven and still save #5 for a quarterback.

On top of that, they’d be foolish not to listen to any trade offers for #5. Any team will listen — but it doesn’t mean they necessarily plan to accept the offer unless it’s truly beneficial.

After reflecting on everything that’s been said — I don’t think we can say with any greater certainty what Seattle intends to do at #5. What I do think we can say with absolute certainty, though, is that one way or another there’s going to be a big investment in the D-line.

That could also be with a free agent splash, for once, money permitting. They haven’t been a team that typically goes big in the market but they did in 2011 to accelerate building their roster. I wonder if that’ll be the plan again to help fix what has been stated as a major issue?

The name that could really appeal is Da’Ron Payne from Washington.

As comparisons were being made to San Francisco, it’s worth noting they hit a home run acquiring Trent Williams and then paying him in free agency. Perhaps the Seahawks will themselves consider a splurge for someone like Payne who would immediately upgrade the defensive front? He’s a good age and only turns 26 in May.

That would take the pressure off the draft and keep all options open at #5 — quarterback, trading down or another defensive lineman.

Of course, Washington aren’t likely to let him go without a fight. They will surely free up $26m by cutting Carson Wentz — creating ample room to retain Payne one way or another.

Regardless, the way Carroll spoke means my next mock draft will feature an array of defensive front seven talent being added. They sound like they’re going to really attack that area, with or without the fifth pick being part of it.

I’ve seen it implied that Carroll’s praise of the quarterbacks is in some way an attempt to build a trade-market for Seattle’s pick.

This feels like a reach. For starters, no team is being influenced by something another coach says in a press conference. They have their own scouts, GM’s and Head Coaches to analyse talent and need. It’s hardly like the Carolina Panthers watched that presser today and then called an emergency meeting to plot their move up the board for a QB.

Secondly, I’ve watched every game the top-four quarterbacks in this draft ever played (such is my social life). They are really good, as Carroll says. What’s more, at least three of them perfectly align with what John Schneider has found attractive at the position in the past.

Nothing about today compels me to avoid pairing a quarterback with the Seahawks at #5 in future mocks. As Carroll points out, it’s a rare opportunity to pick that early.

Very few people are prepared to consider the ‘best of both worlds’ scenario. This is re-signing Geno Smith and drafting a quarterback. It creates a replica of what happened in Kansas City, who had a bridge quarterback (Alex Smith) and the future of the franchise (Patrick Mahomes).

Imagine a scenario where a rookie drafted by the Seahawks can take his time to learn the scheme for a year or two, while Smith leads the way? Then, when the time is right, the baton can be passed. If handled properly, as it was in Kansas City, there are no issues. Alex Smith was traded to Washington for a player and a third round pick in the end. There’s no reason why the Seahawks couldn’t try to copy this plan.

It would mean no defensive player drafted at #5 but it’s too readily assumed a great option will present itself.

It’s very like Arizona will draft one of the top two defenders at #3. I would suggest they are likely to take Will Anderson after losing edge defenders Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt in back-to-back years.

Jalen Carter is brilliantly talented but as we’ve discussed a lot recently, there are some concerns. We highlighted a recent video where he expressed multiple times last April that improving his conditioning was a priority. Yet at the end of the season, we could see he was exhausted to such an extent he admitted he was ’embarrassed’.

On top of that, Todd McShay has reported teams do have some character concerns with Carter.

It’s not as simple, therefore, as thinking there’s a ready-made solution at #5 for the defensive line. Carroll also stressed today that it had taken the 49ers many years to build their great defense.

I also need to keep stressing, having watched all of his 2022 games, that Clemson defender Myles Murphy did not have a good season and is more raw athlete than anything polished at this stage. He in particular struggles against the run despite being 275lbs (I’ve called him a pussycat) and this was an area today highlighted by Carroll as a big problem. I’d go as far to say that if defending the run better is key for the Seahawks, drafting Murphy would be counter-productive based on his time at Clemson. Watch the way Notre Dame ran all over him for an illustration of what I’m talking about. He also only had 6.5 sacks and didn’t start at least two games due to poor play.

Tyree Wilson is someone who could end up really interesting Seattle. His frame is ridiculous and unique — 6-6, 270lbs and a wingspan stretching 7-feet in length. If he tests well I can imagine the Seahawks showing major interest — even if there’s a fair bit of inconsistency on tape (and the record of BIG-12 defenders coming into the league hasn’t been great recently).

The top quarterbacks — C.J. Stroud (who I’ll talk about in a bit), Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young — are excellent players with fantastic character. They are all good or great athletes with the potential to be franchise QB’s.

Many of the people knocking this quartet were the same people suggesting Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder should be first round picks a year ago. The 2022 quarterback class was poor. The 2023 quarterback class is top-heavy but is a lot better.

Back to Carroll’s words and I did notice this line when talking about the defense:

“It’s stuff that we can really fix, it’s right there in front of us”

This is a line that is often used during the season but it is wearing a bit thin. Seattle’s defense has had, to be fair, ‘things that they can really fix’ for a number of years. And yet they never are fixed.

‘Fixing the pass rush’ was declared as a big priority four years ago. It’s now 2023 and Carroll is saying the same thing.

In 2019, ‘fixing the pass rush’ equated to trading Frank Clark, drafting L.J. Collier, signing an injured Ziggy Ansah and then trading for Jadeveon Clowney right before the season. I hope the 2023 plan is better than this.

In 2020, ‘fixing the pass rush’ equated to retaining Clowney as a priority and adding more. They couldn’t agree terms with Clowney and instead added Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin, before drafting an injured Darrell Taylor and trading for an expensive pass-rushing safety. At the trade deadline, they added Carlos Dunlap. I hope the 2023 plan is better than this.

In 2021, ‘fixing the pass rush’ equated to bringing back Dunlap on a deal they ripped up at the end of the season, signing Kerry Hyder and having Taylor available for the first time. I hope the 2023 plan is better than this.

You get the picture.

The thing is, Carroll is right. They can fix this. But they have to be prepared to spend a bit more. If Da’Ron Payne does reach the market then why not be willing to pay a little bit more than maybe you’re initially comfortable with to get him? Signing replaceable players has simply led to a lack of quality. They haven’t been able to re-create the magic of the Bennett and Avril contracts and now it’s probably time to just go out and get someone who, on day one, can be a difference maker.

On a different topic — during the interview on Brock & Salk, Carroll was given an opportunity to bask in a 9-8 season when many people expected a far worse record. He rejected that opportunity and I liked that.

Undoubtedly Seattle’s win record and playoff qualification was unexpected. There’s no need for victory laps though and Carroll acknowledged that. The Seahawks did benefit from one of the weakest schedules in the league, played badly on defense for most of the season and were carried at times by a journeyman quarterback who excelled against the odds.

This is still a team with a lot of holes, not enough star players and a ton of work to do. Carroll, quite rightly, is viewing it that way and wasn’t in the mood to accept a pat on the back. That was encouraging and again, was a very different tone to the talk of being ‘close’ a year ago when they clearly weren’t.

Other notable quotes included Carroll’s praise of Austin Blythe:

“He was a real factor for us… terrific leader, solidified it”

A lot of fans won’t like that because many feel an upgrade at center is needed. I don’t disagree and think Sedrick Van Pran, if he declares following a very traumatic last few days, could be a home-run pick. However, it’s worth stating again that the Rams blocking scheme, which Seattle is using, has typically ‘got by’ at center with a specific body type and skill-set that Blythe does fit.

It doesn’t mean they won’t go for a Van Pran or a Luke Wypler or someone of that ilk but it’s entirely possible they re-sign Blythe and perhaps add some competition later in the draft or in the veteran market. Joey Hunt, who is just like Blythe, has also been on the practise squad all year. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the backup to Blythe — or even a cheap competition to start.

On the defense again, Carroll spoke about the scheme change:

“We might’ve shot a little too high… need to be fundamentally better up front”

He also spoke about being able to split double teams and rush the passer better. He constantly talked about being a factor up front and how much they miss not having that X-factor player (which is very, very difficult to find).

The one player I think has been best at splitting double teams is Tyree Wilson. I am not that excited about him being ‘the guy’ at #5. Neither am I that convinced he’ll prove to be a difference maker given how inconsistent his tape is. There aren’t many humans with his size and length though and again — if he tests well at the combine or pro-day, he could emerge as a real option for Seattle (even ahead of Jalen Carter).

Carroll mentioned they adjusted their scheme during the season and made a four-week turn where results improved. This certainly did happen but it would also be useful to acknowledge that, from Germany onwards, opponents found a way to attack the Seahawks in the running game and that fleeting run of positivity completely evaporated very quickly.

They can’t spend the off-season tweaking things, only to find a month into the season their opponents have found a similar way to tear them apart. Talent may be a big issue here and rectifying that should help — yet it’s still something that warrants pointing out. Plus — they can’t afford to start the season as badly on defense as they have the last few years. For once, can they at least just be average to begin a season?

Carroll backed the scheme overall and said they wouldn’t change. I was hoping they would but it’s possible the tweaks and adjustments will be significant and he’s just not spelling it out here.

This video highlights how badly teams are struggling running Vic Fangio concepts without the man himself working the controls. Seattle and Minnesota are two of the biggest culprits in how this scheme has been exploited. The Vikings poached defensive coordinator Ed Donatell from the Seahawks just as he was set to join the team and it’s been a mess for Minnesota in 2022.

I really hope the Seahawks aren’t going to draft players for this scheme only to need to replace all of those players in 2-3 years if it doesn’t work. I’d rather be adding talent and copying the 49ers and Cowboys personally. They seem like the models to mimic, not the Fangio system. It helps having Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons — yet the Chargers have not faired well with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack operating in a similar scheme to the Seahawks.

I’m not convinced Jordyn Brooks is as good as Carroll suggested today — naming him as a player opponents consistently have to account for and talking up his quality.

I think you can count the number of ‘big plays’ by Brooks on one hand since he cost the Seahawks a first round pick. He’s very good at collecting tackles but doesn’t do enough to truly impact games. He had a 52.8 PFF grade this year which is dreadful. A year ago he graded at 58.4. He has two career sacks, zero career interceptions and only 15 career TFL’s. To date he’s been underwhelming and yet he’s often talked up like a key contributor. I’m not seeing it.

Overall though I thought it was a good media session. No cracks were papered over and it’s evident they know how important this draft is for the franchise and how much work is required to improve. Now they have to deliver. I hope they are bolder in free agency than previous years and try not to add a lot of very average (or below average) players to fill things out as they have done in the past. Adding quality must be the key — even if it comes at a hefty free agent price.

But please, no more big trades.

I also hope they view this 2023 draft as phase two of a rebuild not phase one of ‘go for it next season’. The way Carroll talked today gave me confidence because he wasn’t saying anything about drafting players to seriously contend in 2023. It feels like a longer term approach is being taken while acknowledging pressing, immediate needs that have to be addressed.

C.J. Stroud declares for the draft

This was very welcome news and is particularly beneficial to the Seahawks.

Stroud is a potential #1 overall pick. He is extremely accurate and throws with wonderful touch to all areas of the field. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm. He has excellent character, ideal size and the potential to be a real difference maker at the next level.

The one criticism was about his ability to play outside of the constraints of the Buckeyes offense. He showed he can do that in glorious fashion against Georgia with a masterful performance.

For me, Stroud or Will Levis will be the #1 pick with Indianapolis (#4) or Carolina (#9) trading up to get them.

Either way, I’ll be surprised if Stroud lasts to #5. He would be a great option for the Seahawks to draft and develop. If he isn’t available though, his presence in the top-four pushes another player down to Seattle that otherwise might be gone.

If the Seahawks stick at #5 I think the decision will ultimately come down to whoever is left between Stroud, Levis, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young, the two defensive linemen Will Anderson and Jalen Carter, or a potential surge-prospect such as Tyree Wilson.

These are all great options for Seattle. The benefit of being in the top-five versus the #8-15 range is enormous. It’ll probably take a kings ransom to get Seattle to move down because the opportunity to draft someone at #5 versus later on will be huge.

Stroud, Levis and Richardson all scream John Schneider. That shouldn’t be ignored. They are exactly the types I would expect Schneider to be very excited about. Big arm, great athlete, creative, elusive, playmakers.

Let’s also remember Levis played a year in Seattle’s exact offense under Liam Coen and excelled massively. I’ve felt for a long time that Schneider would be very interested in Levis — I think many other teams will be too.

The quarterbacks are not less risky than the defensive linemen named above — that’s a fallacy that has gained too much traction. As someone who has studied this class to the absolute max, this has bizarrely become an under-rated group. They’re not flawless, far from it, but neither were Mahomes, Allen and Herbert.

That said, there’s also clear talent with Anderson and Carter, while Wilson has such an enticing physical profile. There are also some concerns that aren’t highlighted as much as the flaws shown by the quarterbacks.

Now that Stroud has declared and Carroll has spoken — I will plan to publish a mock draft this week.

First though, I will be conducting my annual interview with Jim Nagy tomorrow discussing the Senior Bowl and on Wednesday I will be joined by Jeff Simmons on a live stream. I hope you’ll check out both.

And if you missed it yesterday, don’t forget to read Curtis Allen’s outstanding piece reviewing Seattle’s cap situation.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

In anticipation of a very intriguing offseason, we have covered the Seahawks’ salary cap situation from the summer to the fall.    

As has been stated several times, the Seahawks do not have as much cap space for 2023 as has been discussed in the general media.  In fact, some difficult decisions are going to need to be carefully considered by the Seahawks.  Every option should be thoroughly explored.

With the season over, it is now time to take a serious look at what the team is facing.  Decisions made this year will have a ripple effect into 2024 and 2025, which will be crucial years for the franchise.  Particularly given the young, talented and inexpensive base the team is currently building.  They could set themselves up in a timely manner for much bigger things or handcuff themselves badly.

We will get into that shortly.  For now, where do the Seahawks stand as far as cap space is concerned?  Get out your knife and fork and let’s dig in.  

Here is a brief snapshot to get started with:

There is a lot there.  Let’s start from the top and work our way down.

Overthecap (OTC) projects the salary cap and deducts the known information of contracts already on the books for 2023.  They have the Seahawks with 36 players on their roster and have $48 million of cap room available to spend on 15 players to fill the roster out to 51.

Before we get into any player transaction discussion, we need to update that cap number with a couple of contract adjustments that OTC has yet to account for.

Damien Lewis gets a Proven Performance Escalator for 2023 for his playing time on his rookie contract.  Lewis has earned the RFA tender amount of $2.629 million plus $250,000 for his playing time, for a total salary of approximately $2.879 million.  Add that to his bonus proration and Lewis’ cap hit in 2023 is approximately $3.16 million, an increase of $1.6 million on the cap.

Geno Smith has $3.5 million on the cap for incentive money earned in 2022.  Where did that come from?  If you recall, Smith signed a one-year contract with the Seahawks last year for $7 million.  We found out later that $3.5 million of that was salary and the other half was earnable through incentives.  These incentives are classed as Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) incentives and as such are charged to the 2023 salary cap.

Bob Condotta confirmed Geno earned all the incentive money.

Moving on, we have the draft picks.  This year, with the quantity and quality of their picks, the Seahawks need more cap room than normal for their draft pool.  OTC projects their nine current draft picks as costing them $16 million on the cap.

Ryan Neal is a Restricted Free Agent and with his excellent year is a lock to be tendered this offseason with a contract to keep him a Seahawk in 2023. I chose to give him the Second-Round tender of $4.3 million instead of the Right of First Refusal tender of $2.629 million, given his excellent play and the extent of Jamal Adams’ injury. They will want to protect their interests should Neal get a healthy offer from another team.

That brings us to a subtotal of $23 million in cap room with 46 players under contract.  They need 5 more players to fill out the 51-man roster.

I set aside $10 million for a contingency fund.  The Seahawks need to keep some money on the books during the season for practice squad players and to replace players that go on Injured Reserve.  There is also some churn at the bottom of the roster during the season – an $800k player replacing a $775k player in the top 51 that count towards the cap, etc.  

It is also beneficial to have a little bit of a slush fund to cover some incentive bonuses and acquire some players through trade or as street free agents during the season.

Next, we come to what I am calling ‘Key Players’.  Those five spots on the roster are important, if not critical.  I put in $18 million spent on those guys.  Where did I get that number from?  I took it from the 2022 cap hit of players and positions not currently on the 2023 roster but had key roles on the team:  Jason Myers ($5m), Rashaad Penny ($5.6m), Nick Bellore ($2.75m), Cody Barton, Tyler Ott and Travis Homer ($1m each) and rounded up for inflation.

All those players will need to be re-signed or replaced.  It is a reasonable expectation that the Seahawks can do that for a cumulative total of $18 million.

That leaves us over our cap limit by $4.9 million.

Are All These Numbers Carved in Stone?

Absolutely not.  For one, the cap is always fluid.  We are just working with what we have at this moment in time.  There’s also some fat built into the projection.  I will also never claim to have every single inch of the ins and outs of the cap covered perfectly.

There are some areas where I am likely overestimating the impact.  The league might provide a salary cap number higher than what OTC is projecting.  The Seahawks’ cap rollover from 2022 might be more due to some incentives not being reached (the prelim number is $1.59 million).  The team might trade down in the draft, reducing the cap impact.  Having $10 million in the contingency funds might be too excessive.

Maybe they feel Ryan Neal’s market will only merit the $2.629 million tender?

And those Key Players?  Perhaps the Seahawks can use some rookie players in those roles – costs which are already accounted for in the draft pool money.  Maybe they offer Penny a contract for far less and he accepts it.

You get the idea.

When we are looking at the big picture though, overestimating is a healthy exercise.  Having some cushion for expenses is always wise. As is building team depth. 

For instance, the Seahawks could not have possibly budgeted their 2022 season in January on starting a fifth-round rookie, a fourth-round rookie and a street free agent at cornerback.  They put $5 million into the position by getting Sidney Jones, Justin Coleman and Artie Burns.  All of them ended up being mostly unnecessary but it was wise to have some depth on the roster for coverage.

So, a little sandbagging is in order.  Budgeting on the razor’s edge is not a fruitful exercise.  

Also, in most instances, a million saved here and there is beneficial but in the big picture it does not tip the scales and turn a team into a Super Bowl contender.  

In fact, it pales in comparison when you consider…

The Seahawks Need a Quarterback on Their Roster

That’s right.  You probably have noticed the Seahawks do not have a veteran quarterback on the roster or in this plan yet.

They have already overextended themselves in this projection and they will need to find some money to bring in a veteran.  That is where the challenge lies and some tough decisions need to be considered.

Geno Smith.  His best play might be to stay in Seattle.  The system, the talent on the roster and the coaching staff presents him with the best option for success.

The Seahawks’ best play might be to bring Geno back for at least another year.  He has demonstrated chemistry with the receivers and the tight ends and knows the system.  Even if and when the Seahawks draft a top quarterback this spring, having Smith on the roster benefits them in a number of obvious ways.

The question is then:  Can the Seahawks craft a contract he would consider that pays him market value, does not cause too much damage on the 2023 cap and has some options in 2024 for the Seahawks to move on?

Yes they can.  

We have worked up a contract that can meet all those requirements.  Granted, it is bold and very aggressive.  But the framework of the deal presents a workable path forward for both sides.

Let’s select the 3-year, $75 million option and put Geno Smith down for a $9 million cap hit in 2023 (we will address the big cap hit in 2024 shortly).

With our earlier deficit, that means the Seahawks now need to find $13.9 million of cap room on the roster in order to get their heads above water.

Where can they get that kind of cap room?  Let’s go to work.

The Options Available to Them

The first option to gain cap room is by cutting Gabe Jackson.  He has an $11.2 million cap hit in 2023 and $6.5 million of that can be reclaimed by cutting him loose.  

This appears to be an easy choice.  He has struggled to stay on the field this year, frequently splitting reps with Phil Haynes.  In fact, he was only able to play 100% of the snaps in five games in 2022.  His PFF grade (54.8), his age and his large cap hit all make for some low-hanging fruit.

The second option is in a similar boat but is a harder choice to cut:  Shelby Harris.  I personally like Harris but he will count for $12.27 million on the cap in 2023 and the Seahawks can gain $8.9 million by cutting him before March 22, when a $2 million roster bonus is due.  They likely would do it well before then in order to give Harris a chance to get a jump on the new league year that starts March 15th.

Between those two players the Seahawks will have created $15.4 million of cap room, enough to handle Geno Smith’s cap hit, cover the deficit and give the team about a $1.5 million surplus.

The concern though:  Cutting players to save cap dollars is an obvious option but it should not be taken lightly.  There is a downside, in that you now must replace those players on the roster.  Which usually means more cap outlay.  

If there is one lesson we all must understand about the salary cap more clearly, it is this:  when you pull on one lever oftentimes that moves another lever.  Actions and reactions.  Rarely is anything done with just one simple motion.

Perhaps both Jackson and Harris’ spots can be covered by draft picks.  Perhaps Jake Curhan is ready to step in as the starting Right Guard? Perhaps the Seahawks can bring Exclusive Rights Free Agent Myles Adams back for less than a million dollars and he can step up in a major way and take most of the 55% of defensive line snaps that Harris’ exit has created and provide consistent play?

As we discussed above though, it can be a very dicey proposition to plan on young players making big, big leaps in the upcoming season.  Even more so when you figure that the Seahawks’ biggest weaknesses in 2022 were the interior lines of both sides of the ball.

Planning to weaken the lines and then fill them with mostly untested players would very likely result in the same kind of play in 2023 we have witnessed the last few seasons.  The Seahawks need more.  Particularly when you consider the potential of 2024 and 2025.

They would be very wise to explore all the options available to them for improving both lines and thus the team.

Which brings us to our two favorite punching bags.  The Seahawks have 100 million reasons to strongly consider their future with the team right now.

The Options with Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs

Adams and Diggs will account for $36.2 million on the cap in 2023 and $38.7 million in 2024.  Adams also has an additional $24.61 million commitment for 2025, making it a staggering $99.51 million of cap space for these two players.

Considering recent performances, injury history and the Seahawks’ lack of resources for other positions, it would be negligent if we did not work through what the options are going forward.

We covered the options for Adams extensively in this post:

Cut Adams outright.  That means all $23.89 million hits their cap in 2023 and they are clean going forward.  There is no cap saving in 2023.  In fact, that is about a $5.8 million extra hit on the cap.  Doable — but that restricts your available room.

Cut Adams with a June 1st designation.  This would split the dead cap between the next two years, with approximately $9.69 million hitting in 2023 and $14.2 million hitting in 2024.  This would open up $8.44 million for the team to spend in 2023 after June 1st.

Contact Adams and initiate talks to renegotiate his contract.

Cutting him outright is not advisable at this point.  It would cost them extra money on the cap in 2023.

The other two options have potential.  Cutting him with the June 1 designation and splitting up the dead cap is doable.  If the Seahawks choose to make a move this year, they could easily reason that they have given Adams three seasons to reward their faith in him and made the hard choice to move on.

Renegotiating could be a way to give Adams another chance to stay on the roster and rehabilitate his value with a good season free of major injury.

For instance, the Seahawks could tell Adams that he will have to play on his guaranteed $2.56 million salary if he wants to stay on the team this year.  For 2023 that would create the same $8.44 million in savings as if Adams was cut June 1.  In fact, it might be a better option since it would free the cap space immediately, whereas the June 1 cut space would not be available until June 2, after the draft and the bulk of the free agency season is completed.   Even better if Adams rewards them with a good season.

Admittedly, getting Adams to agree to that amount is a whole other conversation though.

Again, I cannot emphasize this enough:  the Seahawks must address Adams’ contract in one way or another this offseason.  There is no justification for not considering all the options, no matter what Pete Carroll says about looking forward to having Adams back this fall.

What about Quandre Diggs?

He will count $18.1 million against the cap in 2023.  Given his performance this year – even accounting for plenty of time to recover from a leg injury and that crucial interception in the Rams game – that big cap number bears a close examination.  

Pete Carroll made a little Freudian slip two weeks ago when commenting about Diggs’ interception and his celebration during live play in the Jets game when he said Diggs ‘has come alive with his playmaking’ – a tacit admission that the Seahawks had long stretches with pedestrian play from their star free safety.  Indeed, the number of missed tackles and the lack of sparky plays add up to make 2022 not one of his better seasons, despite the Pro Bowl nod.

Spotrac has a note on Diggs’ contract: his 2023 salary becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day after the waiver period begins (after the Super Bowl).  OTC usually has these kinds of notes but does not for Diggs.

What does that mean?  Two things:  the Seahawks will have to decide on Diggs very, very quickly.  In the next few weeks in fact.  Secondly, the June 1st cut is not an option this year.  There is no practical benefit for 2023 to be had with it because his salary locks in as guaranteed.

It does force a decision though — and soon.  The Seahawks can pick up $9.9 million of cap room if they cut Diggs before February 17.  It also gets his dead money handled in 2023 and off the 2024 books.

A trade is not a great possibility, unless the Seahawks can talk a team into trading for a 30-year-old safety and paying him $9.9 million guaranteed.  A renegotiation is possible but hard to visualize with Diggs. 

Cutting or trading Diggs and renegotiating or June 1st cutting Adams would at the most net the Seahawks $18.34 million of cap room for 2023.  With the surplus from the other moves, that would get them about $20 million of cap money that is free and clear.  They could spend it all in the market if they like.

Of course, they would need to dip some money and/or draft picks back into the safety position to replace those players.

Yet with Adams missing so much time and Diggs being invisible for large chunks of 2022, I am compelled to ask – could the Seahawks not get the same level of play or better with Ryan Neal, a mid-level free agent and a draft pick, for far less on the cap?  Particularly when you consider that Sean Desai and Karl Scott have been able to steer Neal to a great season and develop three young corners into starters 2022?  

The question is worth some serious consideration.

Using the cap room gained, they could refocus their resources on both lines by bringing in some strong free agents and drafting young talent to pair with them.

Perhaps they consider pairing a top free agent center or guard with one of the strong centers or guards available in this draft class?

On the defense, perhaps a top free agent defensive tackle paired with a draft pick could have a profound impact in the middle of the defense?

The thought of shifting resources back to the trenches is extremely persuasive.  If the Seahawks can be more effective in those areas, that would provide all kinds of benefits to their whole pattern of play and bolster their core principles of running the ball and stopping the run to a degree they have not experienced in recent seasons.

If they decide to move on from both Diggs and Adams, it opens up all kinds of options to both dramatically increase their competitiveness now and clear the decks for 2024 and beyond.

Investing in the trenches is always wise.  A home run strategy.  Even if that home run strategy does not produce home run results, we have already seen the results of investing heavily in the linebacker and safety spots – year after year of poor defense.  Returning to their roots by utilizing their draft capital and the ability to manufacture some cap space to invest in the lines is an unimpeachable decision.

However, there exists an option within that strategy that is also particularly enticing — adding some low-cost free agents in the trenches for 2023, developing their core young players further, keeping some cap room intact and pushing the surplus into the following season.

Freeing themselves from the two safety contracts and rolling a cap surplus allows the Seahawks to set up a real war chest to make serious moves in 2024.  Let me explain.

The Impact of These Moves on the 2024 Cap

The importance of 2024 cannot be overstated.

The Seahawks can be largely free of their wayward spending on expensive, underperforming veteran players in recent years.  Their biggest free agents will be Jordyn Brooks (I am guessing they will decline the $11m fifth year tender for 2024), Damien Lewis, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson and Uchenna Nwosu.  Some would be replaced in the draft; some would be let go.

The excellent 2022 draft class will have their training wheels off and be ready to exert some dominance in their third season.  The 2023 class will have cut their teeth and have a year under their belt.  A good portion of their roster will be on rookie contracts and contributing at key positions.  

They have their bookend tackles, a dazzling running back, a corner who has already turned his immense physical gifts into serious production on the field and a pass rusher who has shown in limited stretches he belongs in the NFL.  Imagine the impact of adding two first-round picks and two second-round picks in 2023 and two more high picks in 2024 to that group.

Put another way, they will have some of the most expensive positions in the league covered with quality players on rookie contracts.  If they draft a quarterback with their top pick this year, they will have had him on the roster for a year and ready to take the reins in 2024 and complete the puzzle of matching immense talent to value at the most difficult positions in the NFL.

Take a look at where the Seahawks stand for 2024 using the same chart I had for 2023 and we will do the same exercise to true up their projected cap room:

OTC has the Seahawks with $127 million for 19 rostered players at this moment.  The 2023 Draft Class will take a chunk for the second year of their contracts, and the 2024 Class less so since the Seahawks will most likely not have four high picks in the top two rounds again.  I added $30 million for eight ‘Key Players’ plus two of those lower-cost trench players we discussed, tendered Darrell Taylor at the Second-Round rate and gave the tender a raise and put in another $10 million for the rainy-day fund.

That leaves approximately $52 million of cap room with 47 players rostered.  That is very, very good.

However, if they have cut Adams and Diggs loose in 2023, that adds another $24.49 million to OTC’s number.  Now we are at $77 million of room with 45 players rostered.

We are not done.  If the Seahawks decide to roll over any of the $20 million surplus gained by cutting Jackson, Harris, Diggs and Adams, that adds to the total.

It would not be the whole amount.  Let’s be conservative and roll over just third of that – $6 million – and call that $83 million of cap room for six players.

We do have a wildcard that needs discussing though and that is Geno Smith.  If the Seahawks sign him to the contract with a very cheap $9 million cap hit in 2023, they will have a price to pay in 2024.  His cap hit under that contract for 2024 would be $31 million.

That takes the cap down to $52 million of spending room for only five players.  However, the options we built into the proposed Geno contract give the Seahawks opportunities to reclaim some of that $31 million.

They can tear the contract up and renegotiate.  Or…

• If they want to keep Geno, they can restructure the roster bonus and gain $9 million
• If they trade Geno, they can recoup as much as $21 million
• If they want to cut Geno with a June 1st designation, they gain $17.5 million in June

If I have completely overvalued the Geno Smith contract and the Seahawks get him for much less, there is even more room to operate.  

If they move on from Geno in 2024, they will need six players to get to 51.  But the lowest number in this projection is $52 million to get those six players.

You see where this is going.

With the young and inexpensive talent at critical positions filled already, any available cash can be utilized to shore up any weak spot on the roster or just to add even more talent to the trenches.  Or another offensive weapon.  Or both.

Think this is too pie in the sky?  It very well could be.  Maybe I am too optimistic.  Let’s address that.

Let’s cut that in half and take the available cap room down to just $26 million for the six remaining roster spots.  Call the other $26 million wasted money, inflation or bring back a couple of their own free agents.  

The Seahawks can still add two very good free agents and some key veteran role players to this young talented squad with that much money.  

Remember, we have already accounted for our draft picks, some important veteran spots and the injured reserve contingency fund.  This is money they can spend every dime of.  The beauty of it is, we are not proposing mortgaging the entire future for a shot at a championship run in 2024.  

In 2025, they will still have all those critical players on rookie contracts plus another $24.6 million of cap room from the last year of Jamal Adams’ contract being handled already.

Also, I have just talked about a couple ways to create cap space.  There are others available to the Seahawks if they desire them.

For this discussion though, a great chunk of that flexibility comes from the Seahawks deciding to add $67.44 million to their cap by freeing themselves from the contracts of Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams as soon as possible and using it strategically to benefit the team.  You can draw a straight line from that proposed $26 million of 2024 cap room to the $24.49 million you gain in 2024 by ridding yourselves of these two players.

Considering the great potential of the 2024 team and that precious Super Bowl window opening wide, would a 31-year-old free safety with a $15 million cap hit and a 29-year-old strong safety with a $23 million cap hit and a history of season-ending injuries really fit on this team?  Honestly.

The classic phrase ‘better a year too early than a year too late’ perfectly describes the situation with these two.  Moving on jumpstarts the next phase of this rebuild.  Not doing so could hinder it.

Concluding Thoughts

This is a lot to process, I realize.  If you have made it this far, you deserve a hearty handshake for sticking with me.

I want to be clear about something – this is not what I think the Seahawks will do.  My taste and ambitions for team building have long leaned towards being more aggressive than theirs are.  I am also very good at spending other people’s money.  It’s a gift.

And let’s be right, there is a reason the front office has their jobs and I do not.

It also needs to be acknowledged that there is an assumption that the 2022 draft class continues their ascent and the 2023 class delivers a similar impact.  As well as a desperate hope that Pete Carroll will not block any more young talent with expensive, marginally impactful veteran players in the future.

On the whole, this work-up has been an attempt to show what is possible within the framework of the current cap situation for the Seahawks.  If they make hard choices.  If they draft well.  If they avoid the pattern of overpaying veteran players whose best years are behind them and not developing their young talent more.

There is a lot of dead money involved in this plan.  The Diggs and Adams moves I propose leave over $30 million of cap room as dead and unusable between 2023 and 2024.  Geno Smith will incur some dead cap money at some point if the contract we outlined is signed.

Those are costs that need to be weighed and counted.  

How bad is dead money?

Regularly collecting dead money is never an advisable strategy but we also need to develop a balanced viewpoint about it.  It is not the anchor weight to a franchise that many view it as.  It can actually be an effective tool when utilized properly and young talent is developed.  

The Rams won a Super Bowl with $46 million in dead cap money.  The Eagles this year are carrying $65 million of dead money and are one of the best teams in the NFL.  Our own Seahawks carried $56 million and they squeaked into the playoffs.

My point is dead money on the books does not automatically translate to losses on the field.

I also want to briefly address a narrative that the Seahawks are conservative when it comes to the salary cap.

While that may largely be the case, it should be noted that the Seahawks have leaned toward being more aggressive in their moves the last three seasons.  

In August of 2020, they traded two first-round picks for a pass-rushing safety without securing a long-term extension in the transaction.  That was beyond aggressive.

The following year they gave that safety a market-bending contract.  Aggressive.

They also utilized void contract years in 2021, in order to make up for the salary cap shortfall due to the pandemic’s effect on ticket revenue.  That was a strategic procedure change borne out of a need to adapt.

They bucked their typical structure for the large Diggs and Adams contracts, making them light on the cap in the first year of their deals and heavier later.  Another necessary change.

They removed two franchise icons from the roster in the span of 48 hours in March last spring and committed to eating almost $30 million of dead cap to do it.  After being such a strong point of contention, absolutely no one is upset with the $26 million of dead cap for Russell Wilson 10 months later.

So there is evidence of this organization acting boldly in recent years.  They need to do it again in 2023.

This offseason, the team stands at the threshold of a completely new era of Seahawks football.  More options are open to them than ever before.

Money is not the problem.  Draft capital is not the problem.  Cap room is not the problem.  

In truth it is simply:  Does this organization have both the desire and will to act?  To take bold steps to push this team to the level of being a bona fide Super Bowl contender?

They have a chance to definitively answer that question this offseason.

Fans of all teams absolutely love to speculate about what you can do with a star quarterback on a rookie contract and rightly so.  We should be doing more of that when we talk about Seattle’s future plans.  

If the Seahawks wait until they have had that quarterback on the roster for a couple of seasons and ready to contribute before they start clearing up their finances and planning accordingly, they will not be able to effectively maximize that small window of premium cap room.  

They got a fantastic start in 2022 by making two very tough decisions on popular players and followed it up with a smashing draft class.  I am proposing they do exactly that again this year.

It will take some moves that are very clearly aggressive.  However, the potential reward could be historic:  Completely rebuilding a Championship-worthy roster without the painful experience of several seasons of treading water at the bottom of the NFL hierarchy.  

With the season over following a chastening second half against the 49ers, attention will quickly turn to the off-season.

There are two key issues that need to be addressed:

— The future at quarterback

— The state of the defense

2023 should be seen as phase two of a significant rebuild that started a year ago. Making sure the Seahawks address these two areas properly will be crucial if they want to build on the success of the 2022 draft class.

Let’s start with the quarterback situation…

What are they going to do at QB?

I was a little bit confused earlier when Ian Rapaport reported that Geno Smith ‘will be back in 2023’ — noting that if needed, the Seahawks would use the franchise tag.

What is the benefit in stating this publicly?

The minute you make it clear that you’re prepared to use the franchise tag if a deal cannot be struck, negotiations begin at the price of the tag. Over the Cap estimates a tagged quarterback will cost $32.4m in 2023.

You only lose leverage by having this report in the public domain. What if they get to the combine, when all the deals are discussed for free agency on the sly, and discover Smith’s market is lower than $32.4m? If you’re already making it clear you’re going to tag him, there’s no incentive for the player’s representatives to go lower in talks.

Let’s say they do tag him. They only currently have a projected $28.1m in effective cap space for 2023. They would immediately be $4.3m over the cap, with only 37 contracted players on the roster (which would be the third fewest in the NFL).

You would have to immediately negotiate a long-term deal with Smith to lower his 2023 cap hit. The problem is — once he signs the tag, the minimum average salary on a deal would likely be the $32.4m amount. If you wanted to lower the cap hit in 2023 to, say, $18m so you can actually have some money to spend — that would simply make Smith even more expensive in future years.

Are you prepared to have Geno Smith playing on a $40-45m back-loaded cap hit in 2024 or 2025?

It’s true they can cut players to save money. Shelby Harris would save $8.9m and Gabe Jackson $6.5m. They could designate Quandre Diggs as a post-June 1st cut and save $14m. All of these players would need replacing though — and as already noted you have the third fewest players contracted for 2023.

It’s very difficult to imagine how tagging Geno Smith works financially.

Making the situation all the more confusing is the article published by ESPN’s Brady Henderson this week, which included the following paragraph:

The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.

This is the exact opposite of the Rapoport report. The line from the Henderson article is clearly sourced from the Seahawks and states if the asking price is too high, they’re willing to move on. They believe in their scheme and think there will be cheaper alternatives.

So what’s the reality here? Are they just going to negotiate and move on, relying on their QB friendly scheme if needed? Or are they making sure they keep Smith at all costs, as implied by Rapoport?

And why are mixed messages being fed to the media?

Someone might suggest they could tag Smith, continue negotiations and then if needed trade him to another team. This is extremely unlikely.

Smith never had a contract in his NFL career worth more than $1.25m a year prior to his $3.5m deal with the Seahawks this season (which included $3.5m in incentives).

He would almost certainly sign his franchise tag the minute it was applied, securing $32.4m guaranteed. That’s life-changing money. Then you are on the hook for it and can only lower the cap hit with a big extension.

Meanwhile, there’s the question over his actual play.

In the first half of the season he was being touted for MVP honours. He finished the season with six interceptions in his last six games, with a crucial fumble against the Niners and several other plays that could or should’ve led to turnovers.

There’s no doubt he has been a big net positive for the season. Yet as the team enters phase two of the rebuild it has to ask whether he’s simply a very useful bridge to the future or someone you can legitimately compete for a Championship with over the next few years.

Personally I am sceptical that he’s good enough for that. I wonder how people will view a longer spell of what we saw since the Germany game when his play tailed off a bit, once he’s suddenly earning $32.4m instead of $3.5m.

It all comes down to the draft. If the Seahawks like a player enough to take them at #5, they clearly think they’ve found a future star QB. If that player exists they should even probably consider trading up to make sure they get them.

If you can’t get to the top quarterbacks or you simply don’t rate them, it makes it a lot easier to justify paying to keep Smith and going in a different direction.

The decision of C.J. Stroud is critical. He is yet to declare for the draft and the deadline’s on Monday. If he returns to Ohio State, it would leave Will Levis, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson as the three quarterbacks likely to be drafted early. I’ve watched every single one of their college games and believe any of the trio is worth taking at #5. Yet with Houston, Indianapolis and the prospect of a team trading up to #1 — it’s possible none of the three will last to #5.

If Stroud does declare, at least one extremely talented QB will likely be there at #5.

I’ve seen several Seahawks fans suggest waiting on the quarterback and building up the roster first. That’s fine — but are you going to be picking in the top-five again any time soon?

It also needs to be said that trying to build a brilliant roster and inserting a quarterback at the last minute is actually very difficult. Finding a great quarterback can, to be fair, cover a lot of warts.

I suspect the plan when Russell Wilson was dealt was to try and draft a quarterback in 2023 with a high pick. This will be a vital decision for the franchise. They’re going to need to be bold here.

Keeping Geno Smith is fine but it has to be for the right price and drafting a quarterback for the long haul at #5 must still be a consideration.

Serious talks are needed over the defense

New scheme, new coaches, very similar results.

The Seahawks, once again, have been far too easy to play against on defense. They don’t create enough pressure. The run defense is poor. Their tackling is absolutely abysmal.

Part of the issue is a talent problem but it should also be recognised how much has been invested in this group. A first round pick on Jordyn Brooks and second round picks on Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe. The Jamal Adams trade and contract. Paying a high price to keep Quandre Diggs. Poona Ford had the biggest cap hit in 2022 and Uchenna Nwosu is the most expensive outside free agent in the Carroll/Schneider era.

It’s still lacking, especially in the front seven. But even if you’re starting eleven street free agents, you wouldn’t expect the tackling to be as consistently rotten as it’s been.

Seattle gave up 505 yards against the Niners. This has become a trend and not just against an impressive Kyle Shanahan offense.

Carroll, Schneider and Jody Allen should be prepared to sit down in a room and have a serious meeting about this. Call it crisis talks if you want. The defense has been so bad for so long. Without proper action — will anything change?

Is the scheme right? A handful of teams have adopted the Vic Fangio concepts and all have struggled to varying degrees. It seems without the main man in charge, it’s very hard to copy his defense (or at least copy the success he’s enjoyed).

Watch this video for more on the way Fangio-inspired systems have toiled recently.

There’s no point drafting and signing players for the wrong scheme. Establishing whether you’re on the right track should be a top priority.

Is Clint Hurtt good enough to be defensive coordinator? He has been promoted through Seattle’s coaching system but what has he actually been able to hang his hat on over the years?

A proper review of his performance is necessary. Yes — you want to give coaches time and it would be harsh to part ways after one season with the defense needing a talent injection. Just as it’s important to have the right scheme though, it’s equally vital to have the right man at the controls.

Why is the tackling so bad and why has this become a recurring issue? This is a massive priority and something needs to change.

How and why is this team so often bullied up front? Is it just down to talent?

Why has the defense looked really bad at the start of each of the last five seasons? It’s almost become something everyone just accepts these days. The defense starts horribly then improves. This shouldn’t be acceptable year after year. You don’t need to look like the ’85 Bears in week one but you shouldn’t look like the 2020, 2021 or 2022 Seahawks either.

What is the best way to add talent? Is it through the draft or do they need to invest in free agency? After all, while it’s been great to see Tariq Woolen excel — there are too many rookies (Boye Mafe the latest example) who are either struggling to have an impact early in their careers or they are simply giving up major snaps to much older veterans.

What’s the point, for example, in drafting Jalen Carter at #5 if he ends up being spelled all the time with Quinton Jefferson or Shelby Harris getting the bulk of the snaps?

The final question is the most important. How much responsibility should Pete Carroll hold for his defense looking so bad for so long?

They’ve changed coaches (including trying three different coordinators), schemes and personnel. They’ve made big trades and spent lots of draft capital. Carroll is the one constant here. Serious questions need to be asked about his role in failing to address how bad his defense has been in the years since the end of the LOB era in 2017.

Watching the Seahawks play defense has been quite painful at times during this period. That was especially the case this year. Hoping a few draft picks and a year of experience will solve the problems would be complacent. This is not working. It has not worked for a number of years.

Some harsh words should be shared and some big decisions taken. Everything should be on the table, too.

They’ve won one playoff game in six seasons. That should be acknowledged and treated with genuine concern. Their only three playoff wins since the New England Super Bowl are the Blair Walsh game in frozen Minnesota, a win against the Lions at home and a victory against the Eagles where they had to insert a 40-year-old backup QB into the game in the first quarter.

I’d suggest you won’t win many playoff games in the future either with the defense playing the way it has been over the years.

The Seahawks cannot be here again in 12 months asking the same questions about the same defensive issues. Brutality is required to sort this out.

If you missed our live stream discussing the 49ers game and the off-season ahead, check it out here:

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel.

The Seahawks are in the playoffs.  What a cherry on top of a season of surprises.

Do they have a shot against this San Francisco team that is currently on a ten-game winning streak and looking very, very tough?  They do.  

The Seahawks have won seven of their last 10 games in San Francisco, including three of their last four.  Granted, they got swept by the Niners this season and the talent and coaching gap between the teams seems more like a chasm than a small crack. Never discount division games though.  These two foes know each other better than anyone and in that realm, the Seahawks have a fighting chance to shock the NFL world.

How can they beat the odds?  They will need their best game of the season to do it.

No key fumbles or terrible decisions.  No crazy defensive breakdowns.  No bizarre challenges or wasted timeouts.  

A pure commitment to Seahawks football.

Pete Carroll needs to coach a game that the organization and fanbase can be proud of.  Those positive press statements he routinely makes after poor game performances that we scoff at?  Those are like deposits into a bank account.  It is time to cash them in and reach this team to put together a game that rewards his relentless faith.  There is no tomorrow.

What areas do they need to focus on and play effectively in order to have a chance to win?

Win the Turnover Battle

San Francisco has won thirteen games this year.  One of the biggest keys to their success?  Winning the turnover battle.  

The Niners are the NFL’s best team at it — entering the playoffs with a +13 rating.  In their current ten-game winning streak they are an amazing +16, generating 21 takeaways and only giving the ball back five times.

They have only lost four games this year.  They have only lost the turnover battle in four games this year.

Yup.  Turnovers are the stone that David could use to take out Goliath.

There is your banner headline.  For the Seahawks to have a fighting chance Saturday, there is no clearer path to victory than to protect the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense.

The Niners know this better than anyone.  Jaquiski Tartt makes a catch on the easiest moon-ball he will ever see in the NFC Championship Game and very likely the Niners make the Super Bowl last year.

This year though, it was the Seahawks’ turn.  We all got a front row seat to it in Week Fifteen.  Second quarter, Niners are up 7-3 at their own 36-yard line with the ball with two minutes to play.  Brock Purdy does not see Quandre Diggs and delivers a ball right between his numbers.  Diggs cannot complete the interception and a golden opportunity is missed.

51 seconds later, Travis Homer fumbles, San Francisco scores a gift touchdown and they enter halftime leading 14-3.  They take the third quarter kickoff and double-dip for another touchdown and that is the ballgame.  

We have talked about turnovers in the past.  The best way to win the day is to not turn the ball over.  Planning for your opponent to turn the ball over (especially when we are talking about the best in the NFL) is not a high-proposition strategy.

The Seahawks have eleven fumbles on the year.  Only six teams in the NFL had more this season.  In a win or go home tournament, the Seahawks cannot afford to be careless with the ball.

Interceptions though.  Here is the most critical part of the game.  San Francisco leads the NFL with 20 interceptions this year.  The Seahawks have only thrown 12, which is very good.  Only nine teams have less than the Seahawks.

But we all know Geno Smith’s challenges in the second half of the season.  Bad decisions and ill-chosen throws forced by a lack of adequate pass protection and a porous defense that cannot get him the ball back.  He could have 15 interceptions but defenders have helped him out by dropping the ball (or in the case of Week 15, a pick-6 got called back by a pretty weak roughing the passer call on Nick Bosa).

What can help Smith play better in this game?  First, he will need all of his cool and calm.  We have seen him throw some very ugly balls this year, then shake them off and lead a fantastic drive with laser precision.  He will need that mental state right from the start.  Show us something, Geno.

Another thing that can help him is to move his head clock up by half a heartbeat.  You know how we all set our alarm clock a few minutes ahead so we can cheat and hit the snooze button one more time in the morning?  That is exactly what Geno needs to do.  If he has no options after thousand-one, thousand-two, move those feet like the Devil’s after you.

Both Taylor Heinicke and Jarret Stidham had very effective days against this tough defense in Weeks Sixteen and Seventeen by employing this strategy.  They threw quick passes and if they were not there, utilized their scrambling ability often.  If that snap-drop-throw is not there, use your feet and create some extra time to find another option.

Have a look at this brilliant play by Heinicke.

The Commanders have a standard screen set up but John Bates cannot even begin to block Nick Bosa – even with a four-step head start (side note:  this is a good example of what Rob is talking about when he says explosive traits in pass rush prospects are important – Bosa is 20lbs heavier than Bates and is so quick he leaves him flailing).  On the other side, Talanoa Hufanga is blitzing.  They have Heinicke dead to rights from both sides.

Heinicke immediately picks up that the screen is dead, pivots and we’re off to some backyard football.  He eludes Hufanga and with Bosa bearing down, throws a strike to Jahan Dotson.

It is a great reaction to pressure, great athleticism and a great throw on the run.

Perhaps most important though it is a great decision.  Dotson is in a spot that only he can catch that ball.  It would still be a very good play if Dotson was blanketed and Heinicke just chucked it into the stands and lived to fight another day.

Geno Smith needs to deliver three or four plays like this on Saturday and avoid those desperate heaves with pressure in his face into very narrow windows.  Those types of plays can be the difference between winning and losing.

He has done it before.  He needs to do it again Saturday.

What about Brock Purdy?

The story of his emergence rivals Geno’s for Unlikeliest Success of the Year.  Kyle Shanahan has been able to integrate him into the offense without too much tailoring.

Purdy only has four interceptions.  I have watched all four.  There is bad news and good news.

The bad news is only one of the four were just flat-out his fault.  He scrambled to his left, saw Kittle deep and did not reset his body angle and made a poor mechanical throw that was picked off.

The other three were two non-critical situations (a fourth down throw and a late-game heave) and a perfect strike that the receiver bobbled and tipped and it was an easy pick.

That is incredible.  He has started five games and played in nine as the last pick in the draft and thrown a 67% completion rate.  Watching him, he demonstrates a natural feel and awareness that some five-year NFL quarterbacks do not have.  He keeps the offense on schedule and the Niners do not have to rely on their running game to carry the offense.

How has he had so much success?  That is where the good news comes from.

Kyle Shanahan has not adapted his offense for Purdy so much as narrowed the parameters.  He has Purdy getting rid of the ball as quickly as humanly possible.  His average time in the pocket is 2.1 seconds, easily one of the shortest in the NFL for starting quarterbacks this year.  His air yards per completion is 5.9 yards and is also one of the shortest.

Most NFL defenses can do a passable job of taking a first read away.  How is he doing that so well then?  Answer:  Kyle Shanahan.  He is so creative he usually is able to give Purdy two options available before the defense can even diagnose the play.  Purdy is fantastic at keeping his eyes up and his feet under him, so he is able to pick his option without having to completely reset his body.

It also dovetails nicely with his skillset as a quarterback.  Purdy does not have an NFL arm that will ever wow anyone.  He absolutely needs structure and scheming to make his throws work.  This offense is perfect for him, maybe even more so than Jimmy Garoppolo.  They rarely ask him to throw past the sticks.

Alright.  So, the good news is the Seahawks have defended this style several times over the years and done very well at it.

I cannot believe I am saying this but the Seahawks might benefit from looking at the way Ken Norton Jr’s defenses handled this offense in recent seasons.

It is a process.  The corners are critical.  They must be tight and sticky and the linebackers and safeties must clog those lanes.  Do not let him consistently have those quick passes.  Linemen have to accept that a good part of their day will be containing the pocket and getting their big paws up to bat down those quick passes.  Speedy types like Darryl Taylor and Boye Mafe will need to be ready when they are unleashed.

Taking away those simple options for Purdy will be critical.  He can be good throwing on the run and he is a good scrambler but here is where the potential for forcing turnovers comes into play with him.  Sometimes he gets too amped up with his scrambles and allows his mechanics to get sloppy.  His footwork can get out of sorts and without a rifle for an arm, he will give defenders chances for interceptions.

Another thing that works in the Seahawks’ favor is the matchup.  Which side of the field does Purdy have the most success throwing to?

Why, that is Tariq Woolen’s side.  If Woolen can have a game there, he can cut a big, big chunk of Purdy’s effectiveness out of his diet and force some of those erratic throws.

Watching Purdy play, I see at times the end result is not unlike Geno Smith.  Defenders are unable to finish the interception but it is not for a lack of chances.  His numbers are sparkling for his draft status but not unlike the Seahawks’ quarterback, they are hiding some deficiency.

With Geno, his kryptonite is decision-making under pressure.  With Purdy, it is his mechanics and having to learn his NFL strengths and weaknesses in real time.

Seahawks defenders must make him learn the hard way Saturday.  He only has five starts in the NFL.  They need to use that to their advantage, when the stakes are at their highest.

Run the ball

San Francisco has won thirteen games this year.  One of the biggest keys to their success?  Defending the run.

The Niners are nearly the NFL’s best team at it, entering the playoffs with the second-best run defense in the NFL, only giving up 77.7 yards per game on the ground.

They have only lost four games this year.  They have only given up 100 yards rushing in four games this year.

Yup.

Okay, close but not really.  Three of their four losses have featured them giving up 100+ yards.  The other?  They gave up 99 yards in Week One.  Close enough.

The game where they gave up 100+ yards and won?  The OT win over the Raiders.  In overtime Josh Jacobs was gashing the Niner defense and then Jarret Stidham turned back into a pumpkin and threw a horrible wobbly interception of his back foot.  Ballgame.

Those five best yardage games that San Francisco allowed?  The opposing teams only gained 3.77 yards per carry.  But they committed to the run game and did not waiver.  Four of those five featured several low or no-gain runs but also had more than one explosive run.  The Raiders game did not but three players all had runs of nine yards or more, which was just fine.

This defense is so good, you cannot game plan to attack a specific weakness because they do not have one.  Your best bet is to bring your lunch pail, hunker down and get ready for a tough game.

The Seahawks will need Ken Walker in his best form.  Deejay Dallas too.

We all know, however, that this is all about how the offensive line performs.  Will they be ready?

If you need a boost, Thinking Football just posted a pretty glowing review of the Seahawk line’s performance in the Rams game.

The short version is:  Abe Lucas is awesome, Damien Lewis is back to being Damien Lewis, Colby Parkinson is becoming a full-grown tight end and Charles Cross mixes good plays and plays that show he needs to get stronger (I can watch Cross manhandling Michael Hoecht on that Walker flip run all day long).

Of course, that was against the depleted Rams line and San Francisco is a much stiffer test.

To have a puncher’s chance, this line must come up with their best performance of the season on Saturday.  We will have to be patient if the run game is slow going but the game itself is a close one.  Have faith that Walker will eventually break one.

Other Key Points

The Niners defense is incredibly good at defending the middle of the field.  With their front four being able to create disruption and the quickness of their linebackers and Hufanga, they can close gaps in short order.

Just like the running game though, the Seahawks cannot be afraid to go to this area.  They have two tight ends who are impressive and one of the most effective plays in their arsenal against San Francisco has been getting Metcalf lined up in the slot and letting him win with speed if it is a linebacker, or size if it is a corner covering him.

Shane Waldron will need a creative day to put this all together.

****

Speaking of Metcalf, they badly need a big day from him.  He had another outburst last week and it could have cost the Seahawks the game if it had been flagged.  That cannot happen again Saturday.  You cannot brush off a timely penalty that hurts the team by saying he is ultra-competitive.  Competitors have situational awareness.

Metcalf has not had his best performances against San Francisco in the last three years.  He has not been awful but neither has he regularly brought his top game against them.  They have been more workman-like.  He has three touchdowns in the last six games against the Niners and has been targeted an average of nine times and gotten 66 yards.  He has one 100-yard day in those six games.  The Seahawks need to feed him liberally to keep the chains moving.

That means no drops and certainly no fumbles.

****

The defense cannot afford a poor day with their tackling in this game.  As we discussed above, the Niners’ offense is predicated on short, quick passing and yards after the catch.  

There is an argument to be made that if Purdy is on fire and regularly hitting his receivers, the defense can still stall the offense by taking the receivers down quickly.

This area has been very up and down for the team this year.  For the record, they had six missed tackles in their first matchup in San Francisco.  Not great but not awful either.  Their second matchup they had eleven missed tackles, their second-worst performance of the season.

This is unacceptable:

Brock Purdy and George Kittle connect for 2 touchdowns and the San Francisco 49ers clinch the NFC West with a 21-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks. #NFL #FTTB pic.twitter.com/o3Cu2m2JMZ

— For Future Considerations (@PodcastFFC) December 16, 2022

Yes, it has been widely discussed by Pete Carroll and Tariq Woolen that he blew the coverage on the play.  Yet those attempts by Diggs and Barton… if the Seahawks bring that level of energy on Saturday, the game will be over by halftime.

Christian McCaffrey is slippery and Deebo Samuel and Kittle are tough to bring down.  The defense must meet the moment and be mentally ready to wrap up and bring these guys to the ground over and over and over again.

Yesterday I wrote a piece discussing the possibility of John Schneider and Pete Carroll having different ideas for the off-season. I speculated that might be one of the reasons why there’s been a bit of internet chatter about Carroll’s desire to carry on coaching beyond this season.

Today I’m going to discuss the other side of the argument.

An article by Brady Henderson was brought to my attention. It discussed the future of Geno Smith and had some interesting elements that are worth breaking down:

The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.

This isn’t framed as an opinion. The article states what the team believes. This is sourced. This is from the Seahawks’ top brass. They think their scheme is quarterback friendly and they think they can find a cost-effective replacement for Smith if he doesn’t re-sign.

This isn’t insignificant.

Now, it could all be part of negotiating through the media. The Seahawks have dabbled in that over the years. It could be a dig in the ribs for Smith’s agency.

I’d go as far to say that’s pretty likely what this is. The Seahawks grabbing at some leverage, playing the game a little bit.

You can’t blame them. What else can they do? They can’t come out and talk about underwhelming performances and too many turnovers or near turnovers in the second half of the season. That would be a negotiation killer.

All they can do is set up the impression — whether it’s true or not — that they have a bunch of alternative options. Smith’s representatives will likely make a similar case on alternative suitors as both teams talk contract before free agency begins.

By suggesting the scheme is QB-friendly, they also subtly introduce the thought that Smith has succeeded as a 32-year-old not necessarily because of a career renaissance but because he has been set up to succeed by the system.

It also says to Smith — why would you want to play somewhere else? This scheme helps you shine.

Nevertheless, the line Henderson reports still suggests the Seahawks are prepared to move on. We’ve seen in the past talk of prioritising extending the contracts of Frank Clark and Jadeveon Clowney. Neither re-signed because the price was too high. This is a team that draws a line and tends to stick to it. If they are unwilling to meet Smith’s demands, they’ll likely stick to their guns even if it means looking elsewhere.

Carroll’s tone has also changed slightly. I asked him in Germany, following a NFL Network report about their keenness to keep Smith and Drew Lock, about his interest in keeping their QB’s:

Pete Carroll on Geno Smith’s (and Drew Lock’s) contract situation and whether talks could begin before the end of the season #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/QceEOw2Yp9

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) November 13, 2022

Understandably Carroll mentioned it was too early to get into discussing contract talks but he made a point of speaking about how pleased he was with Smith and Lock while noting ‘a conversation was coming’ with the pair.

Within Henderson’s article, here’s what Carroll said:

“Well, we’ve work to do… but our system is really good. The system is really good, what we’re asking these guys to do.”

Carroll brings up the scheme — which chimes with the earlier part of Henderson’s report that the Seahawks believe their system is ‘quarterback friendly’.

It’s possible that both Schneider and Carroll are actually on the same page here — both in how they’re approaching negotiations and leverage with Smith but also in a willingness to move on if needs be.

Where else might they be aligned?

They might have agreed on a plan last year ahead of the Russell Wilson trade that they would set out to draft a quarterback in 2023.

Smith’s form in the first half of the season may have provoked a slight pause for thought as he was touted as an outside bet for MVP. Yet having thrown five interceptions in his last five games — a tally that could’ve easily been higher — they might’ve soured somewhat on a major investment in Smith.

As discussed yesterday, Seattle’s cap situation is not set-up to accommodate even a moderately well paid quarterback. They have the seventh most effective cap space ($28.5m) with the third fewest players contracted for 2023. They’ve got a lot of work to do without a lot of cap space to do it.

People have even talked about franchising Smith but I don’t know how you do that without hacking away at your roster — creating more holes — and failing to make any significant additions in the veteran market.

There’s likely a dollar amount they’d be willing to give Smith — it’s probably not close to the amount he’s hoping for. Which means he’ll need to establish his market and then the Seahawks will have a decision to make.

Smith seemed very emotional after the Rams game. There could be many reasons for that. At the time he didn’t know whether Seattle would make the playoffs and possibly assumed, like a lot of us, that Green Bay would beat Detroit. He possibly felt emotional because he thought it was his last game and he has an uncertain future.

After the game he said:

“It’s a business. Football is a business, a lot of people have a lot of decisions to make, that’s where I’ll leave it at.”

Again, it implies that the two sides might be further apart than some think and there’s a willingness on the Seahawks’ behalf to offer a certain salary and if the Smith camp want more, they’ll be prepared to move on.

I don’t think it’s that preposterous that a much cheaper Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew or Cooper Rush might be added to compete with Drew Lock — before the addition of a quarterback if the draft falls the right way at #5.

Both Carroll and Schneider might be very comfortable with that given how much they’re talking up the scheme. It’s justified too. We saw Jared Goff produce in LA. Baker Mayfield basically flew to the Rams, ran onto the field and had a modicum of success at the end of the season.

Will Levis had a tremendous season for Kentucky playing for Liam Coen in 2021. Aaron Rodgers had two MVP-level seasons playing under Matt LaFleur. Cincinnati made the Super Bowl with a talented offensive roster operating within this scheme.

The Kyle Shanahan and McVay schemes share a lot of DNA and we’re seeing Shanahan dominate games starting a third string ‘Mr Irrelevant’ this season.

I think it’s important to offer the other side to the article I wrote yesterday, which positioned Schneider and Carroll on opposite ends of a big off-season.

It’s possible the opposite is true but I also do lean towards the old ‘no smoke without fire’ when it comes to stuff like this.

Speaking of Levis — here’s something to remember. Not only does he have the physical qualities Schneider loves. His familiarity with the offense Seattle runs could make him even more attractive if he’s required to start sooner rather than later. He spent a year in the Rams offense and then a season in the Shanahan system in college. He will understand the terminology and how to run the scheme.

I’m not sure Levis will last to #5 but he could be a very attractive proposition if Carroll and Schneider are setting themselves up to go quarterback early.

Check out this video I posted on my YouTube channel earlier — it’s also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams:

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