This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Record: 4-0

Thoughts

What an exhilarating quarter.  Sweeping the entire quarter is a huge accomplishment, particularly when you consider they had two division games and two other opponents they do not often play — with contrasting styles of offense and defense.

This team is currently playing at a near peak-level of Pete Carroll’s original vision with an offense that uses all phases of the game (and the field), a defense that can get after the passer with only the front four and generate turnovers and a special teams unit that blends seamlessly with the other two phases to complete the circle.

Evidence — the Seahawks had the NFL’s best point differential in these four weeks, scoring 48 more points than their opponents.

The closest way this team is like the early Pete Carroll legendary teams?  They are winning games while simultaneously developing young talent.  Once that talent gets a feel for the nuance of the game, watch out.

If the Seahawks end up making noise in the NFC, this quarter is the one you will be able to point to as where it really got started.

MVP

1.Geno Smith

The numbers continue to defy belief.  In four games he has six touchdowns vs two interceptions, a 70.63% completion percentage, a 99.8 QB rating and six rushing first downs.

At the pseudo-halfway mark of the season, he is on track to throw for 28 touchdowns with only 8 interceptions, a QB rating of 107 and over 4100 yards passing.

Those are only the top sheet statistics though.  What makes his performance so remarkable is the source of those numbers.  The calm in the face of pressure (this quarter he faced blitzes about 40% more than he did in the first quarter), the command of the offense (watching him get the offense to the line with 15 seconds to spare and orchestrate things is near poetry) and his cool in the face of adversity (overcoming a pick-six with seven straight third down conversions in Week Nine).

And he is doing it all for a $3.5 million cap hit plus incentives, call it $7 million.  The Seahawks have $33.5 million invested in the quarterback position this year when you figure in Russell Wilson’s $26 million dead cap.  Even if you do not factor in the picks and players they received in trade and just look at the cost and benefit at the position, the Seahawks are netting a nice profit.  Incredible.

The biggest takeaway from this quarter may be this — teams now have tape on Geno in this offense and have yet to be able to devise a consistent way to slow him down or effectively counter what the Seahawks are doing.

This quarter, he graduated from a surprising curiosity to a bona fide top NFL quarterback and has made the Seahawks relevant again.  

2.Uchenna Nwosu

In the four games this quarter he recorded five sacks, six tackles for loss, eight quarterback hits and a forced fumble.

He played 79% of the snaps in those four games and he has not worn out.  The Seahawks have been thin at the position with Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson and Tyreke Smith all missing time.

Nwosu is playing more than he ever has and is providing career-best numbers.  This has allowed the Seahawks to ease in Bruce Irvin and not overwhelm rookie Boye Mafe without missing any productivity.  That is fantastic value and will pay dividends later in the season.

He is doing all this on a 2-year $19m contract.  His cap number this season is $6.3 million.  He has already earned his salary this year.  Everything else is pure profit.

Perhaps most importantly, the Seahawks are no longer needing to blitz at crazy levels to get pressure on the passer — so the young backfield is not overburdened.  Nwosu has been a key piece of that transformation.

3.Ken Walker

With Rashaad Penny getting injured in Week Four, the rookie has been pushed into the spotlight.  Result?  The running game with Walker has not missed a beat.

There are several things that make a running back valuable, from keeping the offense balanced and on schedule to relieving some pressure on the quarterback.  However, a lot of the pure stats can be padded or need real context to grasp their true value.

So, how can we cut through the minutiae and see what made Walker such a valuable player this quarter?

How about his fourth quarter stats as the team went 4-0:

*189 yards rushing

*4 First Downs

*4 Touchdowns

*Zero Fumbles

Walker is the living embodiment of the dream scheme for most NFL teams and fans — mix the run and pass to get a lead, let your defense chase their quarterback around a bit and protect that lead and then slam the door on them late with a running game they cannot stop.

A player like Walker is tying the offense and defense together and making the formula one that is hard to beat.

Rookie of the Quarter

1.Ken Walker

This quarter:

424 yards.  23 first downs.  13 explosive runs.  6 touchdowns.  

We have talked a lot about how Jonathan Taylor is the one that got away in 2020.  His rookie year he ran for 1169 yards, 69 first downs and 11 touchdowns.

If Walker keeps this pace up, he will steamroll Taylor’s numbers — accumulating 1418 yards, 71 first downs and 19 touchdowns.  That is even accounting for him missing the first game and being lightly used in the next four.

And yet, you can see there is more to come with experience.  He also has potential in the passing game that is so far untapped.

The Seahawks have got a good one here.

2.Tariq Woolen

The flashy stats of the first quarter are not there but make no mistake, his star is continuing to ascend.  He had four passes defensed and one interception this quarter.

His year-to-date PFF grade is 72.9.  Have a look at his four game grades this quarter – 83.6, 63, 65.6, 69.3.  That is consistently good play.  It looks even better when you consider some of the names he lined up against:  Hollywood Brown, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Darius Slayton and DeAndre Hopkins.  None of those guys had games to write home about playing against the Seahawks.

Kyler Murray had targeted Hopkins 27 times in the previous two games.  He only managed to target Hopkins five times in Week Nine.

Woolen has not earned the ‘shutdown corner’ label just yet.  But whatever phrase you prefer that is just one notch below that, that is where he is.

Again, this is a fifth-round rookie who is earning $788k on the cap this year.  Ridiculous.

3a and 3b.Charles Cross and Abe Lucas

These two have continued to put in 60-ish grade PFF performances on a regular basis.  This quarter, they reduced their penalties.  Each had one false start and Cross had a holding penalty that hindered a drive but the defense had his back and gave the ball back to the offense.

They also showed us something further — development.  They both had a shaky game (by their standards, anyway) Week Six against the Cardinals, as Geno Smith was sacked five times.  How would they handle the rematch in Week Nine?  Smith was only sacked twice.  Once was on a blitz by Isaiah Simmons that Will Dissly could not handle (nothing to do with the tackles).  The other – both Cross and Lucas got pushed by their rusher but the interior line also made sure Geno could not escape.

Also notable was Cross’ performance against Khalil Mack in Week Seven.  Mack did not get a sack and only recorded one pressure, going head-to-head with Cross most snaps.  Considering the year that Mack was having, that is impressive and shows growth.

What is great about these two is they are taking their lumps and learning on the job, while the Seahawks are winning games.  They are solid to the point where fans are already just assuming that the opposition pass rush will not be a huge problem for them and they will be able to run the ball as they need to.

Just wait until these two get some more reps under their belt.  Lucas in particular will be tossing bodies regularly on highlight reels.

Honorable Mentions-Coby Bryant and Boye Mafe

Both players are progressing.  Both have a way to go.  You can see them in coverage at times, trying to think their way through things instead of acting on instinct.  Open-field tackling can be problematic.  Mafe is adjusting to what the scheme requires of him in coverage, and Bryant is getting used to not having a sideline ally to work with as a nickel.  It is just not quite there for them currently.

And yet, like the two tackles, they are learning on the job while the Seahawks are winning games.

With Mafe, it is just a matter of time before he becomes a regular contributor.  He is too strong and too skilled to not keep progressing.  It feels like a breakthrough is coming.

Bryant is more than compensating for his steep learning curve at the nickel spot by displaying a penchant for forcing fumbles.  We have even seen a couple Bryant-generated turnovers get wiped off the record books with penalties and judgement calls by the officials.

In training camp, I witnessed Bryant step onto the practice field on the very first day and scrimmage well at left outside corner.  I styled him the “rookie star of the day” amongst all the rookie talent the Hawks brought in and praised his performance.  

Later in camp I saw that the Seahawks were giving him time at the nickel spot and questioned the position change, pointing at players like Damien Lewis as proof the Hawks could be messing with a good thing.

At this point, I am reconsidering that viewpoint.  Bryant’s ability to generate turnovers demanded he get on the field as soon as possible and with Woolen locking the right side job down and the left side a crowded field of capable corners (at this moment Michael Jackson and hopefully soon Tre Brown) the move to nickel appears to be a positive one.  

Bryant has the skills and the desire to embrace the challenge of change and he had college experience but no NFL experience as an outside cornerback.  He had a training camp and preseason to get ready.  And with the NFL becoming more and more of a three wide receiver league, the nickel spot is becoming critical.  Why not develop a talent like Bryant and lock that position in for the foreseeable future rather than bringing in a veteran off the scrap heap every season and play the hit and miss game at an important spot?

Successes

1.Defense:  The Adjustment

After five games of disastrous results, Pete Carroll and the staff made an adjustment that is paying off extremely well.

The biggest change is up front with the linemen.  In short, they want them to attack instead of reacting.

Originally, they instructed their base three defensive lineman to control the gaps and read what the offense was doing.  Now, they have changed their assignments to have them attack the gaps and create both run and pass pressure.  This allows them to use their skillsets to their maximum ability.

Players like Poona Ford, Shelby Harris and Quentin Jefferson have come alive with the change.

The other big adjustment has been behind the line.  The Seahawks had been using Cody Barton (PFF 52.6) on nearly every defensive snap.  This quarter, they scaled back his snaps to as little as 30-40% and brought a three-safety look onto the field, with Ryan Neal taking on a larger role.

Neal (PFF 78.5) has exploded this quarter.  In four games, he has 5 passes defensed, an interception, a quarterback hit, a sack, three tackles for loss and several impressive tackles in the run game.

The whole adjustment stems from a pretty simple principle:  Understanding what your roster does best and putting them in the most advantageous position to do that.

Last quarter, I put the defense on notice in my report card.  They have risen to the challenge and more than met their expectations for a passable NFL defense.

Let’s not embrace that they were so late to the party and rather rejoice that they showed up at all and are making a huge difference now.

What have been the results of these adjustments from a statistical viewpoint?  Read on…

2.Defense:  Scoring

The first quarter, this defense allowed 30.8 points per game, good for #31 in the NFL.  They were absolutely dreadful.  

This quarter?  They dropped that to 12.75 points per game (51 total points over four games.  I refuse to ding the defense for the 15 points the offense and special teams conceded this quarter).

Just for comparison, the legendary Seahawks defenses of the 2013-2015 era (sacrilege alert) gave up 14-15 points per game over the course of their seasons.  Yes, this year’s model is only a four-game stretch and their horrid first quarter assures their year-end numbers will not be great. Yet for this quarter, this Seahawks defense was in rare air.

Perhaps it had something to do with their pass rush…

3.Defense:  Sacks

At the end of the first quarter, the Seahawks were in the dregs of the NFL in team sacks with eight putting them firmly within the worst defenses at 29^th overall.

This quarter?  They had 19 sacks to catapult them to 4^th overall in the entire league with 27.  I repeat:  the Seahawks defense went from 29^th to 4^th in sacks in only four games.  

Eleven different players have sacks.

The 3-4 alignment allows them a more natural posture for the edge players to rush the passer.  So really, the only blitzers they have are defensive backs and off-ball linebackers like Cody Barton and Jordyn Brooks.  So, the rush is more organic, and those safeties can man their regular responsibilities more readily, and let the pressure come from players that know they are going to rush the passer.

I think we all can agree that it is working.

Honorable Mention:  Sweeping Arizona

Any time you sweep a division opponent it is sweet.  How much more so to start and end the quarter with a win.  Beating the same team twice in four weeks is a real accomplishment.

The fact that the Cardinals are struggling and are now pretty much out of the division race and primed to play spoiler for LA and the Niners makes it even sweeter.

Struggles

Honestly, were there any real struggles of serious consequence this quarter?

Quandre Diggs still not living up to his $13 million a year contract?  (He has a 62 PFF grade so he is not awful)

The blocked punt in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown in Week Six?  (The Seahawks had counter-balanced that by having two punt fumbles forced and recovered to ease the team to a win against the Giants)

Dee Eskridge needing to show up in games?  (Marquise Goodwin’s day against the Chargers sure eased that difficulty)

The punt return weirdness?  (Frustrating but not game changing)

Kyler Murray running for 160 yards?  (ditto – frustrating but not game changing)

Pete Carroll’s continued odd use of timeouts?  (some things will never change)

I don’t know.

When the Seahawks log four straight wins and win by an average of 12 points per game, particularly in the way they are winning, trying to find real discernible struggles for this four-game stretch feels like nitpicking and strains credibility.

Next Quarter Games

@Tampa Bay in Munich

Bye

Las Vegas

@ LA Rams

Panthers

What a strange quarter this will be, particularly in comparison to what we thought it would be when the schedule first came out.

All four teams are wounded animals of sorts.  

The Buccs just came off a three-game losing streak, the Raiders are a talented disaster, the Rams’ offensive line is a mess and they could not make any of their patented ‘screw the salary cap, screw the draft picks’ trades this time and the Panthers have enjoyed a post-coach-firing dead cat bounce.

Every game is winnable in its own way and a dangerous trap in its own way.

Goals

1.Beat the Rams

The Seahawks have a healthy lead in the division but let’s be right.  They need to beat LA.  The Rams have been their nemesis for years.

The Seahawks finally beat the Rams in 2020 to win the division.  It was a short-lived victory as the Rams came to Seattle and bounced them out of the playoffs two weeks later and then swept the Hawks last year.

A page is turning in the division back to Seattle.  The Rams announced their intention to take the division over in 2017 with a 42-7 blowout, probably the worst loss of Pete Carroll’s Seahawks career.

Will the Seahawks be able to make a similar announcement this year?

I am not saying the Seahawks need to blow them out like that.  That would be nice though.

Beating the Rams would also be a major accomplishment for Pete Carroll.  In his Seahawks tenure, Carroll has never had a losing season vs the NFC West.  They stand at 2-1 currently, and a win would keep that streak alive.  It might be a very meaningful stat in a season of shattered expectations.

2.Set up the Fourth Quarter

The last four games of the season look scintillating.  The Seahawks host the Niners for a revenge game, go to Kansas City for a Saturday game that looks far more interesting than it should, host the upstart Jets and finish by hosting the hated Rams.

Going at least 2-2 this quarter helps set them up entering the fourth quarter at 8-5.  A 3-1 run has them at 9-4 and looks so, so much better with four very tough-looking games to play.

More than just simply putting wins in the column, if we want to keep comparing this team to the legendary run Carroll had in 2012-2014, the team will need to add one of that team’s trademarks —  absolutely rolling through opponents in November and December.

Those teams built momentum over the year.  The young talent matured right in front of our eyes and was battle-tested come the cold and rainy season, when playoff hopes are defined and character is demonstrated.

3.Tap the reservoir of talent

As good as the team has been and as good as the young talent has been, there is still more depth for this team to plumb.

Tre Brown is nearly ready to come back.  Can he get in the game and show some of the speed and feisty play he demonstrated last year before his injury?

Penny Hart is a heart-and-soul glue guy for this team.  He can contribute on special teams, throw his relatively small body at tacklers in the run game and surprise cornerbacks with a key catch or two.  Can he find a way to contribute this quarter?

Pete Carroll has been very quiet about Alton Robinson’s injury status.  Bruce Irvin’s arrival cools the need for him to get back on the field.  Yet a third or fourth quarter shot in the arm with a fresh pass rusher from the edge would be fantastic.  Robinson has demonstrated a trait not unlike Coby Bryant — he has not recorded a lot of sacks but every time he got one, they were incredibly well timed and impactful.  That would be a cherry on top of this burgeoning pass rush if he can get back in the fold.

Dee Eskridge.  He had a prime opportunity to contribute in Week Nine with Marquise Goodwin out and could not capitalize.  It appears at this point that Pete Carroll does not even trust him to return punts.  The coaches need to reach him.  That incredible potential we all saw pre-draft needs to be tapped.  As good as the top two wide receivers and the three tight ends are, having a real third wide receiver option that takes the top off the defense would be the ingredient that takes this offense from very good to absolute juggernaut.  He has got to find the fairway.

I touched on this yesterday but wanted to flesh it out a bit more today. If the Seahawks end up with the #11 pick (currently their highest pick, courtesy of Denver) what could they realistically do with it?

It’s not going to be high enough to get a top young quarterback to develop behind Geno Smith or one of the very best defensive linemen.

For the here and now, nothing would be more impactful for this team than a truly dynamic interior rusher who can wreck games. It would knit everything together on defense. Longer term, I don’t think the success of Geno Smith should dissuade the Seahawks from considering investing in someone to develop as a potential successor. Especially if that player has incredible upside potential to be a top-level starter. Let’s call it ‘the reverse Indianapolis Colts’ — investing properly in the most important position in the sport for the present and future.

The second tier needs are arguably a dynamic third receiver, safety (given they have a decision to make on Quandre Diggs’ $18m salary in 2023, plus potentially Jamal Adams’ $18m too), linebacker (although I think the Seahawks view LB2 as a position of lesser importance in this scheme) and it’s never bad thing to keep adding talent to your offensive line.

So what are the options with the top pick as things stand today?

My personal opinion on the top five picks right now is that it will include:

Will Levis (QB)
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Will Anderson (DE)
Jalen Carter (DT)
Anthony Richardson (QB)

After that I think you can make a strong case that the best remaining players are:

Bijan Robinson (RB)
Michael Mayer (TE)
Bryce Young (QB)
Mazi Smith (DT)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Quentin Johnston (WR)

I don’t necessarily think this group will make up the top-11. Two running backs taken in that range would be unusual, for example. I don’t think it’ll be a surprise, though, if both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs receive high grades. Robinson in particular will be a top-three player on most (if not all) boards.

I would suggest a player from ‘Group A’ is unlikely to last to #11. A player from ‘Group B’ lasting is very plausible.

The problem is ‘Group B’ includes positions like running back and tight end. Neither are big needs nor do they present great value with a high first round pick.

Elsewhere, Bryce Young’s size will be a big question mark for a lot of teams and despite the media narrative — I don’t think he is anything close to a lock to go as high as many mock drafts are projecting. Mazi Smith is a very disruptive, talented player who will blow up the combine. Yet his lack of arm length will be a turn-off for some teams (and Seattle has been quite strict with arm length at his position). Quentin Johnston has outstanding size and an amazing physical profile. He’s a potential X-factor player but he can be inconsistent with his hands and he has disappeared in some games despite playing for a high-octane offense.

There are other players the media are touting to go in the top-15 and in some cases, certain prospects are being declared as ‘locks’ to go very early.

One of those players is Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson. When I watched him I came away wanting more. There are flashes but I didn’t see a hair-on-fire pass rusher every week. Yet I can also see why the league likes him. According to reports quoting league sources, he’s a shoe-in to be a high pick.

According to Jim Nagy, Wilson has nearly 36 inch arms. He’s also listed at 6-6 and 275lbs. I suspect he’s closer to 6-5 and 265lbs but even so — he has great size and length and those measurables are projectable for the next level. Wilson is also productive with 14 TFL’s and seven sacks in nine games this season and 27.5 TFL’s and 14 sacks since the start of last season.

When you pair measurables with production — he’s basically strong testing away from being a player with everything the league looks for at his position. I find it hard to bang the table for Wilson but I also understand why he will appeal to NFL decision makers in round one.

Then there are the Clemson pair of Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy. Bresee’s SPARQ testing was incredible — running a 4.21 short shuttle at 290lbs. His overall score was a positional best 106.83. Murphy is big and athletic. Both are regularly mocked in the early first round.

However, Bresee had a bad ACL injury a year ago and just isn’t making an impact this season. He did suffer some incredibly sad news recently, following the death of his sister. That could be playing a justifiable part in his average play. Yet it’s hard to watch him on tape — despite the athletic profile — and feel like you’d be drafting an impact defensive lineman.

As for Murphy — I’ve talked about him a lot recently. He looks like a great athlete for his size but his frame lacks muscle definition and his run defending is shocking for a player at his size. He feels to me like someone who gets by in college because of his athletic qualities. In the NFL he won’t be able to lean on that. He’ll have to do more and play better. Shaq Lawson is my go-to comparison.

I love the idea of drafting an impact defensive lineman early in round one a year after rebuilding the tackle position. That’s the kind of focus on the trenches this team has needed for some time. Yet I also think forcing positional preferences is how you end up with L.J. Collier and Germain Ifedi (admittedly players I didn’t dislike pre-draft).

As such, this is how I feel today (and this is subject to change)…

— I maintain that I think Anthony Richardson has remarkable potential and the ability to become one of the best players in the NFL if he’s given time to learn and develop. If he’s available for the Seahawks I hope they seriously consider drafting him and stashing him. I think he will be long gone though. His play is constantly improving, he is showing NFL teams he can function in a pro-style offense and make adjustments at the LOS. He has as much physical upside coming into the league as anyone not named Josh Allen.

— Assuming Will Anderson and Jalen Carter are unavailable — I am sceptical that D-line will be the best choice. It’s possible they truly believe in one of Murphy, Bresee, Wilson or Smith to be a cornerstone player. I am not sold on that quartet providing great value in the top-12. I like Smith best of the four.

— I think adding more talent to a group that is blossoming and competing before our eyes would be a good idea — regardless of position. Add quality and depth.

The problem is I completely understand concerns with that final point.

If you draft Bijan Robinson, you might get the best player in the draft. Yet every time Robinson’s on the field Ken Walker isn’t. And vice versa. That isn’t a great use of resources even if that talent level would be through the roof. Yes it’d be solid insurance but you could arguably gain the same benefit from selecting Zach Charbonnet or Kenny McIntosh later on. Or re-signing Rashaad Penny (who might be cheap due to his latest injury).

If you draft Michael Mayer you could end up with a Travis Kelce-level tight end. Now, he’s a very different physical athlete to Kelce. That’s not why I’m making the comparison. I doubt Mayer will match Kelce’s 4.61 forty.

However, the one thing they both share is an ability to get open and understand how to exploit coverage. Kelce’s made a living of settling into the right areas to provide an outlet for Patrick Mahomes. He’s also a highly explosive playmaker of course — but it’s those key conversions he produces where Mahomes needs an open man that are so back-breaking. You can feed him production due to his reliability. Mayer has provided a similar outlet for Notre Dame.

The other thing Kelce does that you see in Mayer is that short-area quickness and agility. Kelce ran a 4.42 short shuttle and a 7.09 three-cone. As we’ve been discussing for years on the blog, these times are vital for the position. On tape you see Mayer separate in coverage superbly against much quicker, smaller defensive backs. It’s a thing of beauty to see him shake off a cornerback at 265lbs. Like Kelce he has a natural ability to get open and win 1v1. He can also stretch the field and deliver those big, explosive plays.

This all sounds great but the Seahawks are loaded at the position. Will Dissly, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are contracted until the end of 2023 at the latest. All three could be extended. All three, currently, are producing at a high level. It’s also worth noting that Dissly and Parkinson are fourth rounders and Fant was part of the Russell Wilson trade. They’re getting good value without needing to spend big.

This has also been a very difficult position to project over the years.

Kyle Pitts — an athletic freak who looked like a sure thing — has not been able to dominate to the extent many expected. T.J. Hockenson had everything coming into the NFL — physicality, blocking skills, ideal agility testing and explosive traits. He’s just been dealt by Detroit and has shone in flashes without becoming consistently dominant.

Meanwhile the top tight ends over recent years have been taken in round three (Kelce, Mark Andrews), round five (George Kittle) and round six (Darren Waller).

As such, you can look at it two ways. Now that the Seahawks are utilising tight ends more than before — you can somewhat justify trying to add a great one. I do think Mayer has the potential to become a player who can impact games like Kelce. As well as Seattle’s tight ends are playing — could you imagine a Kelce-level player acting essentially as your ‘WR3’ working alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?

Mayer has lined up in the slot 131 times this year, compared to his 102 snaps as an in-line tight end. Last year he had 227 snaps in the slot versus 172 in-line. He produces 12 yards per reception in college and has 14 touchdowns in 21 games despite not playing in a super-productive passing offense. He has a 90.6 PFF grade overall and on 316 run-blocking snaps — he’s grading at a 77.2. Not bad for such a dynamic pass-catching weapon.

On the other hand — history is not on the side of drafting a tight end early. You can invariably find good ones later on, as Seattle has done. They are currently well stocked at the position. Presumably you’d spend a high first round pick on a tight end to be the focal point — not mix in and out with two or three other TE’s?

Mayer might be the most talented player available when Seattle picks but whether you can justify it is clearly debatable.

Then you have Quentin Johnston. Physically he looks a bit like Richard Sherman mixed with a 10lbs lighter version of Larry Fitzgerald. That sounds odd but he’s long and lean in the arms/legs like Sherman but with fantastic muscle definition.

Reportedly he can jump a 42-inch vertical and an 11-foot broad, plus run a 4.4 forty. He’s 6-4 and 215lbs. At his best, he is highly explosive and quick. When he runs with the ball in his hands he looks like the T1000 charging towards John Connor.

I buy into the theory that in the modern NFL you’re only as good as your third receiver. The stress it puts on a defense to cover so many weapons is almost as back-breaking as having a superb collection of pass rushers on the other side of the ball. Both Super Bowl teams last season had an assortment of dynamic weapons.

That said, how you acquire that receiver — and who the player is — again presents a challenge. For example, should the Seahawks set out to find a solid, dependable veteran WR3 rather than throw resource at young and unproven? Or should a third weapon at the position be more of a day two option rather than a top-15 pick? Especially with the great depth of talent entering the league annually?

Can you wait until day two for a Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? I could list a whole bunch of other names too.

And while the Dee Eskridge pick so far hasn’t worked out — Seattle’s top-tier receivers are former second (Metcalf) and third (Lockett) round picks.

Johnston has outstanding physical upside but he’s had six games with four or fewer catches despite playing in a pass-friendly offense. He has had three sub-30 yard games. His 2022 numbers are a weird mix of underwhelming and dominant (14 catches, 206 yards vs Kansas and eight catches for 180 yards vs Oklahoma State).

It’s still early and the Senior Bowl and combine will provide greater clarity. Yet it feels like unless the Seahawks do end up with a top-five pick (I think there’s almost no chance and Denver, while not being very good, will not be terrible enough to be quite that bad) they’ll end up compromising in some way. Either by taking a bit of a risk to fill a positional need or adding a very talented player at a position (eg tight end or running back) that isn’t much of a need at all.

Like I said — right now I’m leaning towards just adding talent. I think that top pick should be an opportunity to do just that — add someone really good. It is, to an extent, a luxury for Seattle to be as good as they’ve shown so far this season and still pick early in round one (thanks to Denver). They have enough stock to address more pressing areas later on. There are good defensive linemen, safeties, receivers and offensive linemen who will be available in the late first round and during day two.

In the 2022 draft, the value matched positional needs. The 2023 class might be slightly different.

People will react poorly to this suggestion but I don’t think it’d be the worst thing in the world — and might actually build off what was achieved this year — to go for something like:

Take Bijan Robinson (RB), Michael Mayer (TE) or Quentin Johnston with your first pick based purely on talent. Then consider, with your next three picks, the likes of:

DT — Zacch Pickens, Keanu Benton, Calijah Kancey, Tyler Davis
C — John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Sedrick Van Pran
DE — Byron Young, Mike Morris
EDGE — K.J. Henry, B.J. Ojulari, Tyrus Wheat, Will McDonald
Safety — Christopher Smith, Ji’Ayir Brown, JL Skinner, Brian Branch
WR — Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Mingo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE — Luke Musgrave, Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid
RB — Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh
OT > G — Peter Skoronski, Jaelyn Duncan, Jordan McFadden, Jordan Morgan, Broderick Jones

Talent acquisition is the order of the day, after all, to land another A+ draft in 2023. Not ticking off positions for the sake of it.

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This was a fascinating weekend of college football so be sure to check out the draft notes below on a majorly impactful weekend in terms of the 2023 NFL draft.

Firstly though I want to reflect briefly on the Seahawks and where I think they stand regarding the draft now that they’re 6-3.

I continue to believe, even after trading Bradley Chubb, that the best Denver will offer Seattle is a pick in the range they’re currently in (#8-12). I do think the Broncos defense, potentially combined with eventual better play from the offense, will allow Denver to at least win some games and avoid being a true bottom-feeder in the NFL.

As such, I think this will take the Seahawks out of contention for the top quarterbacks and top defensive players in the draft. They could trade up but I think it’s attractive to add multiple players to the framework they already have. Plus, with limited available cap space (almost none if they re-sign Geno Smith), they will need those picks with only 33 players currently contracted for 2023.

My opinion might change on this but if the Seahawks end up with first round picks in the range they’re picking now (#11 & #24) I think the best thing to do is simply go BPA, add the best possible talent and just improve the roster. I appreciate that’s a fairly unspectacular take. Yet I think it served Seattle well this year and they’ve sometimes got into trouble focusing on positional needs early in the draft.

This year the value matched positional needs. If it doesn’t work quite that well in 2023, I still think BPA would be best.

I’d prefer a focus on the trenches if they’re going to be out of range to draft a top young quarterback to sit behind Geno Smith. Yet increasingly I think the best players available at #11, for example, might be a tight end (Michael Mayer), a receiver (Quentin Johnston) or a running back (Bijan Robinson). That’s not ideal — but I’d rather add a possible blue-chip player than take a lesser talent at a bigger need.

The good news is I think there are very attractive options at defensive tackle, center, pass rusher and safety in the day two range (or even #24). Yet as Seahawks fans inevitably begin talk about landing a top defensive player with the Denver pick — I think it’s important to discuss what is actually likely to be available in that range.

Tennessee vs Georgia

For the first time in his Georgia career I thought defensive tackle Jalen Carter looked like a top-five pick in this game. He produced several huge splash plays that will have NFL teams salivating about his potential.

With 3:54 left in the first quarter he beasted the right guard, putting him on skates right off the snap. He then threw him off with ease and shoved over Hendon Hooker in the end zone for a sack fumble (should’ve been a safety, wasn’t due to the refs). This was a fantastic example of power and quickness combining to blow up the interior and make a game-wrecking play.

With 11:20 left in the same quarter he swam by the right guard and came up against two running backs left in the backfield as personal protectors for Hooker. Carter barged the first one out of the way then shoved the other right out of the pocket before hitting the quarterback. It was an outstanding play where he just looked like the best player on the field.

He forced a crucial fumble late in the third quarter — again abusing the right guard and then hitting the running back to dislodge the ball. Carter also garnered a lot of double teams, creating opportunities for team-mates in a game Georgia dominated.

I’m going to touch on this in a moment but Tennessee lives and dies by its offensive scheme and its ability to function. At no point in this game did they get into an offensive rhythm. Carter, as much as anyone, was a direct reason for that.

That said — it wasn’t a flawless game and some of the inconsistency in his play showed up too. I saw him pancaked once (maybe twice, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on the second). He had a few iffy reps where he doesn’t seem to bother using his hands properly and as a consequence, he loses the leverage battle immediately. There are free-wheeling snaps on tape every game he plays.

To realise his potential at the next level he won’t be able to just rely on his talent to outclass overmatched offensive linemen, have his splash plays and nobody care about the bad stuff. He can be a complete defensive tackle if he puts it all together. I hope he can manage that and become a major pass-rushing force. I do wonder, however, if like many good DT’s he will need time to figure that out at the next level before maxing out his talent.

Even so — I saw plenty here to improve his grade on my horizontal board.

Regulars will know I haven’t been buying into the Hendon Hooker hype. The Vols offense is the MVP and the half-field scheme they use, where Hooker takes his reads from the sideline, doesn’t translate. As such, it’s hard to project his true NFL potential. So many of his throws are one-read or a simple head-fake then come back to the original target. He has a cluster of wide open throws every game and his accuracy has been spotty when things don’t come easily.

In this game he looked limited. He overthrew Jalin Hyatt on a downfield shot. He got the matchup he wanted vs the safety Christopher Smith. Hyatt gained easy separation due to his likely 4.3 speed and Hooker just whiffed. It was a big miss. He had a similar miss to Bru McCoy later in the game.

Other teams haven’t been able to turn Tennessee’s production tap off. In this game, Georgia kept winning with the same blitz. Nobody on the Vols sideline had an answer to it and Hooker doesn’t have the power and ability to make adjustments. He isn’t reading the field at the line — he gets instructions pre-snap from the coaches. Hooker took six nearly identical sacks in the game. As a consequence he was hesitant all day.

He will go as far as the Tennessee scheme goes. He won’t get a scheme in the NFL that holds his hand in the same way. I have reservations about the upside potential of a 25-year-old rookie who has the table set for him in the way he’s had this year.

I’m a big fan of Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh. He would be a terrific receiving alternative to Ken Walker. McIntosh still runs with fantastic violence and finishing ability. Kirby Smith called him, and I quote, “a bad MF-er” this week. He’s very much a name to keep an eye on.

Cedric Tillman vs Kelee Ringo was a fun contest and both players had wins. Initially Ringo struggled. On one play Tillman shook him off in coverage then after the catch, made him miss in the open-field with greater agility and quickness. Ringo looked a bit stiff. Then Tillman beat him again on another route and in recovery, Ringo missed the tackle.

Yet with 4:52 left in the first half, Ringo had perfect coverage and position 1v1 on a shot to Tillman in the end zone. He ran the route for the receiver and claimed an impressive interception. It was a tremendous play.

I still think Ringo gets beat too easily and is rough around the edges and that tempers his stock for me. The upside is high but I think he might be a bit boom-or-bust. I think a range of 20-40 is more realistic for the draft than the top-12 placing some are projecting. Tillman deserves attention in round two. He and Jalin Hyatt should go early.

Georgia guard Sedric Van Pran was superb. He created numerous openings in the running game and combined well with his guards. He’s adept at letting rushers run themselves beyond the quarterback and then he has the athleticism to drop and step to create that personal protector. He’s tough and physical and very capable when reaching to the second level. He’s an excellent player with a lot of potential. We’ll see if he’ll declare.

Left tackle Broderick Jones will be a better guard than tackle for me. I think he looks better than he plays. His physical frame is extremely impressive. Yet I don’t see a comfortable, mobile, top-level left tackle. People are projecting him in round one but I don’t see it. I think he’s a worthy day two pick if you kick him inside.

Clemson vs Notre Dame

This was an absolute hammering. One of the biggest beat-downs I can recall, where one team just flat-out physically dominated the other. Clemson’s much vaunted D-line was taught a lesson by the Note Dame O-line. They ran for 263 yards and threw for only 85. That sums the game up.

I’ve talked up the talent on that D-line as much as anyone but it’s time people were honest and realistic about what’s happening. I keep reading and hearing that Myles Murphy is a top-10 pick. Yet he can’t defend the run. He’s 275lbs and can’t set an edge to save his life.

There was one play on 3rd and 10 where his initial positioning is great. All he needs to do is hold his edge here (he’s on the left side of the line):

Instead he goes wandering inside trying to peek at the running back to make a play and totally gives up the outside contain. It’s a massive gain for a first down:

This isn’t good enough gap-control. Yet it goes beyond bad instincts. He shows no power at the point of attack. Would it kill him to put an arm out, just control the blocker and keep his frame clean so he can keep his eyes in the backfield? Again, he’s 275lbs. If he can’t do this then what are you drafting him for? To be a 275lbs pass rush specialist on third downs? Come on.

He was credited with a sack in the game but it’s really K.J. Henry’s play. Henry drives the right tackle into the quarterback forcing him off his spot and he ran into the arms of Murphy. This was an unimpressive performance from a player I still think warrants only a fringe first round grade. Play with more fire and physicality. It worries me because his frame is a little bit sloppy (no muscle definition in arms, has moobs). He’s clearly very athletic but does he have that fire to be great? Is he one of those players who’s always been bigger and more athletic than everyone else and thus — when that alone isn’t enough — will he actually be pretty average?

Tyler Davis was the best of the bunch on the D-line. He was active — getting his hands up to tip a pass and stunting to create pressure. He has a prototype NFL body and skill set at defensive tackle and it feels like he will become a very solid starter as a round three type.

It’s not good news for Bryan Bresee though. He was totally anonymous and ineffective. I’m not sure if it’s a challenging last few weeks or the ACL from a year ago but he’s just not impacting games. Linebacker Trenton Simpson also continues to be a ghost. He doesn’t seem to do anything but mop-up tackles this year.

Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer is such a fantastic, consistent player. Every single week he brings it as a blocker and pass catcher. He runs great routes, he’s a very reliable target. He has enough short-area quickness and agility to create separation against smaller, quicker defensive backs. Mayer’s testing will determine how high he goes but there’s so much to like about his game. You can tell he loves football too — every snap is played with 100% intensity. He’s a dynamic pass-catching weapon. I don’t think it’s out of the question he becomes a passing-game focal point. It’s just whether the physical upside matches the great tape to determine how high he goes.

Alabama vs LSU

I’ve been talking up Alabama defensive lineman Byron Young for a few weeks now and I thought he was very impressive again against LSU.

He lined up at defensive tackle early, drawing a holding call after a pressure. He shared a sack with Will Anderson with 10:28 left in the second quarter. Young did a great job beating the right tackle off the snap, showing good power initially then some surprising agility and balance to get around the edge. Anderson swam by the left tackle with an inside move and both players met in the backfield.

I have to say, it was the only play Anderson made all night on another deeply underwhelming performance.

Young had a solo-sack with 11:13 left in the game. He showed great hand-fighting ability against the right tackle, barging him into the backfield. He then disengaged to bring down the quarterback. He did it again with 9:56 left in the game to bring the QB down by his legs. Ridiculously the stats-makers didn’t credit him with a sack here or the Anderson one, meaning he ‘officially’ only gets one sack but it really should be 2.5. He is very underrated and I would love to see him in Seattle as a 3-4 defensive end. He’s consistent, shows good power and ability to control the point of attack and he has enough about him to shoot gaps, shake off blockers and get into the backfield.

For me Byron Young warrants a day two grade.

This was not a good game, however, for Bryce Young. It started with a terrible interception in the red zone. Young tried to scramble, saw there were no running lanes available and made a late call to try and throw instead. He threw it straight to a defensive back for a huge error.

After that he was all over the place. He was inaccurate all night. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he looked hurt and that the shoulder injury is still bothering him. He should’ve had another pick on the last play of the third quarter. He threw behind his receiver and the ball hit a defender on the arm before bouncing to the turf.

Then from nowhere he scrambled away from numerous tackles and had the ability to throw downfield to two wide open receivers for a touchdown. This was Young at his creative best. Even so — that moment of magic couldn’t gloss over what was otherwise a challenging night.

I saw this tweet from Jim Nagy during the game. I think it’s indicative of how the league views Young. The questions about his size and ability to stay healthy and at his best will remain. How early can you roll the dice? Whether he succeeds or not in the NFL, these are fair, relevant questions. Do not assume he will be a very high first round pick. He is naturally talented and a good player. But there isn’t anyone like him to compare to and he will face challenges at the next level. His creative spark might combat a lot of that — but it’s also possible teams will see a player who is banged up currently and suffering as a consequence. He will go in round one but it might not be quite as high as everyone thinks.

BJ Ojulari again showed he’s a natural as a 3-4 OLB. He’s so fluid in space but has the power to drive blockers backwards into the quarterback. He can drop comfortably into coverage. He has a long, lean frame. There’s something to work with here.

Jahmyr Gibbs again showed he’s an explosive, electrifying talent. This was only a contest because Alabama wisely leaned on Gibbs in the second half.

Safety Brian Branch is growing on me. In this one he delivered a legal jarring hit — the kind you want to see a safety make. His read/react skills are good. He has good size. In previous games I’ve seen him make some nice plays in coverage. He can play some slot. Testing will be important for him.

A couple of quick final points. The refs were awful all night, making awful decisions that impacted both teams. Also, LSU thoroughly deserved to win.

Other notes

— Not enough evaluators online consider the scheme implications when discussing quarterbacks. It’s a huge thing we need to consider. For example, the demands on Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are far greater than Hendon Hooker. They are making adjustments at the line, reading coverages and have protection requirements. Scheme can also manufacture production and we’re seeing a lot of that too. You have to look beyond numbers, wins and highlight throws and think about how players translate to the next level. What will the learning curve be? How does a players’ skill-set put them in a position to succeed if they need to experience a learning curve? Who will be limited once they leave their college scheme? These are big questions and it’s why, so often, traits matter because they are projectable. It’s why it can be very dangerous to spend a high pick on a quarterback, even with traits, when they have no experience or tape showing an ability to process, adjust or make progressions/reads.

— Michael Penix is a good example of a player who benefits from scheme. He had an awful pick six against Oregon State to illustrate the problem. He tried to look off the defenders over the middle with a glance to his left (this is what all these half-field schemes have their quarterbacks do) and then throw to the intended target. The problem is — none of the defenders bought it. He threw blind over the middle to a receiver blanketed by a triangle of three defenders. It’s because it’s a scripted play and he’s not reading anything. He’s just doing what the sideline tells him to do. C.J. Stroud, Penix and Hooker have all had turnovers like this over the last few weeks.

— Penix clearly has a big arm. A pro arm. Yet he should’ve had another pick six with eight seconds left in the first half against the Beavers. His throwing motion means he arms a lot of throws and puts his shoulder into it. He throws late. The technique and timing was all off on this play. He will be drafted because of the arm but his scheme, his technique and his injury history will likely keep him in the later rounds.

— I will keep saying it — Anthony Richardson is going to go a lot higher next year than people realise. How many players can do what he does? Another huge 60-yard touchdown run against Texas A&M. Two rushing scores on the day. He’s throwing with confidence over the middle on 3rd and 8. He is actually processing at the LOS, adjusting plays and making reads. On the run he’s throwing a late pitch on third down to create and make something happen for a conversion, after threatening to run to draw the defenders to him. He can throw on the run without needing to reset his feet and his velocity is fantastic. He threw a very nice, catchable fade for a touchdown. His second passing touchdown showed poise in the pocket, he escaped pressure and found his guy. I’m not sure half the people criticising him have watched his games. Yes there are inconsistencies and areas where he needs to develop. He’s only played a handful of games for Florida. Once he’s worked things out and gained experience — watch out. I think he’ll be a top-five pick.

— Florida linebacker Ventrell Miller again showed he is a tremendous run defender. He flashed great read/react skills against Texas A&M. He was flying to the ball. He’s physical. I really hope he tests well enough to be considered by Seattle.

— Texas running back Bijan Robinson ran for 209 yards on 30 carries vs Kansas State. He added two catches for 34 yards. Anyone who doesn’t put this guy in the top five of their big board is taking the piss. Most NFL teams will grade him as one of the best three players in the draft — if not the very best. He has everything. Great size. Breakaway speed. Dynamic cuts. Explosive traits. The ability to finish runs. Pass-catching talent. What a talent.

— Will Levis and Kentucky had a lot to prove after the horror show against Tennessee last week and they recorded a vital win at Missouri against a really good defense. The ESPN commentator mentioned before the game he’d spoken to NFL teams and they threw the Tennessee game out (as I suggested they might last week). It was a buzzsaw type of contest where Kentucky had no chance and Levis simply had to try and make something (anything) happen and he pressed. It’s to be expected. That type of game can be thrown out if you bounce back — and he did. In this game he felt a whole heap of pressure yet again (the story of his season) and Levis was sacked six more times. Missouri also had 11 TFL’s. That’s the kind of adversity he’s faced all year. He still stood tall in the pocket, delivered accurate passes and had a crucial game winning drive at the end. He finished with three touchdowns and zero turnovers. NFL teams will love that after last week. All of the big name 2023 eligible quarterbacks have had their challenges this year but Levis remains the most pro-ready, the most projectable prospect and for me — still the most likely player to go first overall.

— There was nothing to learn from C.J. Stroud’s performance against Northwestern. The weather conditions were so bad he could barely open his eyes at the LOS pre-snap. The numbers look dreadful but the wind and rain was sending the ball all over the place. Neither team could kick let alone throw. It looks like a poor result for Ohio State against a struggling team but I’m inclined to say Stroud actually did well just to get out with a win. He found a way to impact the game as a runner when throwing simply wasn’t possible (79 yards rushing vs 76 yards throwing).

— Two defenders we’ve discussed recently had their moments again over the weekend. Brilliant, physical safety JL Skinner intercepted a Jaren Hall pass and Michigan defensive end Mike Morris had 1.5 sacks in a win against Rutgers.

— Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw a lofted interception on the first play of the game against Arizona State but rallied to score four total touchdowns in another win for the Bruins. He finished 13/20 for 169 yards passing while running for a further 120 yards. A lot of his completions were difficult third and long conversions. He had one amazing run in this game where he hurdled a defender, ran around and got a few extra yards. He was unstoppable as a runner. He’s really benefitting from staying in school, developing and growing into the position. DTR even recovered a bad fumble by the running back to avert disaster at the start of the third quarter. UCLA didn’t have Zach Charbonnet due to injury and the quarterback picked up the slack. Jake Bobo also made a fantastic catch on a seam-route from DTR for a good chunk of yards (they repeated the act on a shorter completion in the third quarter). I really like DTR. Considering how much hype some other quarterbacks get, he doesn’t get enough attention. He’s creative, athletic and accurate.

— Has there been a worse coaching job this year than Mario Cristobal at Miami? What a disaster zone that team is.

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I can’t recall ever feeling better about a second half offensive performance.

The Seahawks started off playing a very conservative brand of football. I suppose it wasn’t a bad idea. Arizona’s tricky, blitzing offense can cause problems. We’ve seen that. Avoiding the potential for chaos isn’t a terrible plan.

When they were leading by three points it was fine to tick along, too. Yet the pick-six both changed the game and made a bit of an issue of Seattle’s predictable high-percentage pass plays, with most of Geno Smith’s throws not even reaching the line of scrimmage.

Having talked about unlocking Geno after week two — and it succeeding — they’d suddenly put him back in the box.

At 14-10 you could be forgiven for feeling some concern. Could the offense suddenly shift through the gears?

The answer was an emphatic ‘yes’.

Seattle subsequently took Arizona’s soul with three drives that can be filed in the ‘masterclass’ territory. Smith — calmness personified — just controlled the offense. He didn’t panic. His throws were on time and accurate. He made things tick. They sprinkled in power running. Their blocking was textbook, including downfield.

I might be mistaken but it’s always felt like the McVay offense has succeeded against Arizona. The tight end running across the formation play is a focal point of that scheme and the Seahawks milked it dry here.

How many times have we seen opponents do that against Seattle? Keep going to the well with no answer? What a joy to witness the Seahawks do that to Arizona today.

I can’t speak highly enough of Smith for what he showed after that pick-six. For me, that’s the highlight of his already outstanding season. That took some balls. But it also required maturity and calm.

His attitude and personality in that moment was infectious as everyone did their jobs — O-line, running back, tight ends, receivers.

The Seahawks looked like a powerhouse at the end. How joyous it is to write that.

Meanwhile the defense once again complemented things. Yes the tackling wasn’t great today and the drive at the end was a bit too easy when it would’ve been nice to finish things off. Yet they made enough plays on the day.

Uchenna Nwosu now has seven sacks with a full eight games still to play. Shelby Harris had another big play for a sack. Bruce Irvin got a sack. The young cornerbacks showed well again.

It’s four wins in a row heading to Germany and what an opportunity now to genuinely achieve something this season. You want to keep your hopes and expectations in check but increasingly, it’s difficult to do that.

See you in Munich.

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

It is fascinating how quickly things can change in the NFL.

Three weeks ago, the Cardinals came into Seattle with both teams at 2-3 and coming off frustrating losses the week before.  Neither team had a claim to a good, solid schedule of play.  Mistakes, disorganization and chaos ruled their games.

If you recall, I found it difficult to put a good Watch Points post together because there was so much randomness to both teams’ play.

The Seahawks have evened out their performance greatly.  After beating Arizona handily, they went to Los Angeles and proved the Arizona win was not a fluke.  They then took another big step forward in beating the Giants.  The defense has come alive and is finally complementing the offense.

How about the Cardinals?

After losing to the Seahawks, Arizona split their next two games.

DeAndre Hopkins is back with a vengeance.  In two games he has 22 catches on 27 targets for 262 yards and a touchdown.  He seems intent on making up for lost time and the offense looks vastly different with him in the game.

The defense has gone the other way.  In their last two games they have given up an average of 34 points and 438 yards, after an effective five game stretch allowing an average of only 19 points and 307 yards.  This has put a lot of pressure on the offense to carry the team and that has provided mixed results.

They hosted New Orleans and won by eight points on the strength of the Saints committing three turnovers.

They then went to Minnesota and flipped the scenario, losing by eight points after turning the ball over three times themselves.

The Cardinals are at a crossroads.  They stand at 3-5 and their next three games are against division opponents.  

It is not hyperbole to say their season is already on the line.  If the Seahawks beat them on Sunday, they fall to three and a half games behind in the race for the division title.  The pressure to just keep their heads above water the next two weeks against the Rams and Niners would ratchet up to high levels.  They have not responded well to adversity this year.  Losing to Seattle Sunday could lead to a bad downward spiral and an ugly season.

Pete Carroll is 7-5 in his Seahawks tenure in the second game of the season against Arizona, including a 2-1 mark against Kliff Kingsbury.

The team could really use the momentum of sweeping a division rival to propel them to Germany next week and into their bye week.  How can they make that happen?

Control the Game Script with the Offense

This is a recycled point from Week Six but the divide has grown even more in Seattle’s favor:

-The Seahawks are the #1 offense in the NFL in First Quarter scoring, while the Cardinals are the #32 defense in the NFL in the same category

-The Cardinals are the #32 offense in the NFL in First Quarter scoring while Seahawks are #12 on defense

There is a clear advantage there and the Seahawks need to take advantage of it.  There is no excuse to not come racing out of the gate while the Cardinals are still trying to lace up their cleats.

Division games are always hard-fought and the team that can build a lead holds a decisive advantage.

How important is controlling the game?  Let’s illustrate it by looking at the Cardinals’ win over the Saints two weeks ago.  

Arizona scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to pull even with the Saints at 14-14 with only 2:28 to go in the half.  135 seconds later, the Cardinals had a 28-14 lead thanks to Andy Dalton throwing two pick-sixes.

The Saints went from up 14-6 to down 28-14 in the time in between heartbeats.  They mercifully kneeled to burn the last 46 seconds off the clock and went into the locker room with their heads spinning.

The second half featured Andy Dalton passing heavily, desperately trying to get the Saints back into the game.  They only called five runs in the second half.  A team with Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram only called five runs!  The Cardinals called off their blitzing dogs and flooded coverage in the backfield.  The Saints offense couldn’t get any chunk plays.  Nor could the defense get pressure on Kyler Murray to get him off the field.  Ballgame.

That game obviously unraveled quickly on two very bad plays.  Between Geno Smith’s accuracy and the sheer volume of probability, the chances are that will not happen to the Seahawks.

However, it does illustrate how getting a lead and making your opponent one-dimensional can be a tremendous weapon.

How can the Hawks do it?  

Explosive plays have always been a feature of their attack against Arizona.  The Cardinals have a strange propensity for giving them up.  Seattle’s offense had eight explosives in Week Six. As I have mentioned before, they actually have one more unofficial explosive from that game, in the form of Ken Walker’s 11-yard touchdown run.  Only the goal line prevented him from getting that extra yard to make it nine.

The Saints only managed two explosive plays against this defense and that came as we discussed above.  Having the game in hand, the Cardinals chose to drop in coverage and keep the game in front of them.  They only blitzed the Saints ten times in 49 dropbacks.

The Vikings, with a more even performance, returned the Cardinal defense to their normal schedule, with eight explosive plays on offense, including four explosive runs from Dalvin Cook.  This bodes well for Ken Walker, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and the tight ends.

The key to getting those explosive plays again for the Seahawks will be to play the game they came to play.  

That means minimizing a weakness the Seahawks have had — being susceptible to the Cardinals’ exotic blitzing schemes.  Geno Smith was sacked a season-high five times by the Cardinals in Week Six.  No other team has even come close to getting that many against this reformed offensive line.

All five of those sacks came on third downs, with these yardages to go:  6, 13, 7, 12, 13.  They were obvious passing situations and the Cardinals took advantage.  All told, Arizona sacked Smith on five of their seven third and longs.  That is 71% – an extremely high rate of success.

How high?  On the season, the Seahawks only allow sacks in those situations on about 20% of their third and longs.  They need improvement to keep that number down to their season average in this game.  The good news is, they have already demonstrated it.

A positive development came from last week’s game against the Giants.  As we discussed last week, Wink Martindale is also an advocate of heavy, creative blitzing.  They blitzed 17 times but the Seahawks allowed only three sacks.  One of them was on a second down that they shook off and went on to score a touchdown.  The other two?  They both occurred on a single other drive and the Seahawks punted.  Only one of the Giants’ sacks was on a third and long play out of six such plays overall.  A drastic improvement.

The offensive line the Cardinals will face is the same group of guys but a more confident, accomplished line than the one that surrendered five key sacks in Week Six.

If the offense can keep up their early-game success, they can put a ton of pressure on the Cardinals offense and this will help the defense tremendously…

Get After Kyler Murray

The Seahawks’ pass rush really righted their ship in Week Six.  They sacked Murray six times.  That game was a real breakthrough.

What makes it even better?  The sacks came in a wide variety of ways.  Uchenna Nwosu got a coverage sack, Ryan Neal got one on a safety blitz, Darrell Taylor had a strip sack, Quentin Jefferson got one on a fourth down and Poona Ford and Shelby Harris beat their men inside.

What makes it even better than that?  The Seahawks accomplished their six sacks on only two – count ‘em, two! – blitzes.  More than that, they also recorded thirteen pressures, including ‘just missed’ sacks that Bruce Irvin should have had.  The Valhalla of getting a real pass rush with only your front four was reached.

Playing an opponent for a second time, it can be a struggle to replicate the success of that first game in specific areas.  What makes us think the Seahawks’ defense can regularly get pressure on Murray again Sunday?

First off, the Cardinal game was not a one-time thing.  The following week against the Chargers, they sacked Justin Herbert three times and recorded nine pressures on only seven blitzes.  The Giants game?  They sacked Daniel Jones five times and recorded eleven pressures on only three blitzes.

One game can be a fluke.  Two games can be brushed off with weak opponents.  Three games in a row?  That is a pattern.  And it is an excellent one at that.

Secondly, the Arizona offensive line is currently a disaster zone.  Guard Justin Pugh is out for the season.  Top center Rodney Hudson has already been ruled out for Sunday by Kliff Kingsbury.  Left Tackle D.J. Humphries was inactive against Minnesota with a bad back and has been rested in practice this week.  Even if he plays Sunday, that may be an opportunity for Nwosu and Irvin to be very disruptive on the blind side.

How have the backup Cardinal linemen been doing?  We can encapsulate their recent performance in one clip from Week Six.

Click the link and watch Bryan Mone on backup Center Sean Harlow, who so far this season is rated in the 40’s by PFF.

Minnesota had a field day last week with Murray.  They sacked him four times and recorded nine pressures on only three blitzes.  The offensive line struggled to keep up and the Cardinals were forced to become one-dimensional, running the ball with their backs a grand total of three times for five yards in the second half of the game.  

Murray also narrowed his vision even further, targeting Hopkins nine times in the second half.  About half of Hopkins’ yards came in garbage time, as the Vikings were defending a deep strike and readily allowing underneath throws.

When Murray was not getting sacked or pressured, he was running for his life and making bad throws into a seven-man backfield.  An interception he threw in the second half turned into a Vikings touchdown.  A muffed punt by the Cardinals was turned into another Viking touchdown and put their defense just too far behind the eight-ball.  Game over.

Kyler Murray and the offense this year have been very uneven.  Murray has been spotted yelling at his head coach on one play and on the next, throwing for a brilliant touchdown.  They are disjointed, missing key players and playing like wounded animals.  Lethal yet inconsistent.  Explosive yet erratic.  

If the offense does their job to get a handle on the scoreboard early, you can expect that kind of disparity to grow further.  The defense will be able to pin their ears back and get after Murray while keeping defenders in the middle of the field.

That is, if they keep one of the NFL’s top receivers from taking the game over…

Defend DeAndre Hopkins

Incredibly, between injury and suspension, the Seahawks have only faced Hopkins as a Cardinal in two of the five available games since he came to Arizona.

His numbers in those games were extremely productive — 15 catches on 20 targets for 10 first downs and a touchdown.

This year he has been targeted 27 times in two games — by far the most of any Cardinal player in that stretch.  As I wrote above, when Murray felt threatened and needed to get the offense moving, Hopkins was his go-to target.

A third game with the pairing this year will be very interesting to see how they play together.  The rust (if there ever was any) is off and they will be able to really gameplan the offense in a way they could not in Week Six.

Where will Hopkins line up?  Against the Saints, they split him almost evenly between the left side and the right.  They changed their tactic against Minnesota, lining him up only on the left side all game.  Or put another way, on the side opposite Patrick Peterson.  Hopkins burned Chandon Sullivan, Harrison Smith and Cameron Dantzler all equally.

It is likely fair to say that several defenders therefore will get the pleasure of drawing one the NFL’s toughest assignments.  

One thing that has given Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching ability some positive shine is his ability to move Hopkins around and get favorable matchups.  This year, he has split Hopkins out wide and then had him motion towards the quarterback and when the ball is snapped, he is ‘stacked’ behind the slot wide receiver or tight end.  The defender must make a quick decision to pass off his primary receiver or pick up Hopkins.  That half second of decision makes the corner turn his back to Kyler Murray and opens up all kinds of cuts and back-shoulder throws.

When teams line up off the line of scrimmage and give Hopkins a cushion, Murray and Hopkins simply take the free six or seven yards with a quick slant throw.

Tariq Woolen, Coby Bryant and Mike Jackson will get a real workout in this area on Sunday.  While the rookies have been tested time and again and answered the bell, this is a supreme challenge to keep a player under wraps.  Particularly one who has come out of the gate so terribly hot.  This is the matchup to watch Sunday.

But again, everyone will have a part in defending Hopkins.  These plays I described for Hopkins do not make Murray process very much.  If the pass rush can do their job, Murray will not get as many chances to make easy throws and that can put a lot of strain on his ability to effectively move the ball down the field.

I’m on a bit of a family day today which means I’ll be avoiding the internet and watching a recording of these games tonight and tomorrow morning —- but these are the initial games I’ve got in the schedule:

Ohio State vs Northwestern
Tennessee vs Georgia
Alabama vs LSU
Clemson vs Notre Dame

I’ve also got some notes from the Washington win against Oregon State already collected for Monday’s article.

It’s a big weekend for college football so feel free to discuss it all in the comments section.

Next Saturday I will also be travelling to Germany for the Seahawks game against Tampa Bay.

It’s still way too early to do a mock draft and I’m going to wait at least a couple more weeks before publishing my first horizontal board. However, I wanted to pair some names of players to ranges where the Seahawks are currently picking.

Current pick — #10 overall (via Denver)

I wouldn’t expect Will Levis or C.J. Stroud to get out of the top five. I think, by April, Anthony Richardson (should he declare) will cement his place in a similar range due to his immense upside. People will question that thought because typically they assess that he has ‘struggled’ this year (when in reality, he just looks like an inconsistent player who is starting his first full season). Given his physical potential, talent and ceiling — I would expect quarterback needy teams to think of this as an opportunity to draft a player with Josh Allen-upside, then try to develop him. Recent reports have suggested Richardson is leaning towards turning pro. If he does, I think he should be an option for Seattle to develop behind Geno Smith. As I said though, I’m not sure he’d last to #10.

Will Anderson will also be a top five pick despite an underwhelming 2022 season.

I think it’s plausible Bryce Young could fall to this range due to his size (5-10, 185lbs). I’m not convinced the Seahawks would select him if he was available. Young is undoubtedly a very gifted, intriguing player. Yet it will be a difficult decision for teams to balance out his natural talent versus the concerns over his durability at that size and whether he will be able to shine in the same way he does in college. People will scoff at that concern but it is a valid discussion.

Jalen Carter and Bryan Bresee could be available. Neither has shown consistent play on tape but in a year without clear-cut top-10 players, their upside potential and flashes of quality could be tempting. Michigan’s Mazi Smith has been the most disruptive defensive tackle that I’ve seen this year and he will dominate the combine. However, his lack of arm length has previously been a turn-off for the Seahawks (they have often sought players with +33 inch arms).

In terms of pure talent, Bijan Robinson and Michael Mayer warrant consideration and could be available. Robinson will top a lot of draft boards in terms of pure grade. Mayer won’t be far behind provided he tests well. It will be a hard sell, however, to justify taking a running back or tight end with your top pick for obvious reasons. However — both players have star, blue-chip potential and in a weak looking top-10 — they might constitute ‘talent value’ in an otherwise tough year to find it.

I think the Seahawks could also consider Quentin Johnston. He has great size, an outstanding physical profile and carries an X-factor. Like Robinson and Mayer, he might provide rare value at the top of the first round (although his play has been inconsistent at times this year which is slightly worrying). I just get the sense he’s ‘special’ in the way Seattle likes.

I also think Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright is being massively underrated and deserves a shout-out here — even if the Seahawks are not going to draft another player at this position.

Current pick — #22 overall

This is a difficult one. There’s time for this to change and the Senior Bowl and combine will help shape the board. Yet this is a ‘black hole’ range where picks will likely be a reach in terms of value.

I wonder if teams picking in the 20’s might consider trying to trade their picks for proven players. After all, this year Philadelphia traded #18 for A.J. Brown, Las Vegas moved #22 for Davante Adams, Arizona dealt #23 for Hollywood Brown and Miami gave Kansas City #29 for Tyreek Hill.

This week we’ve already seen the Dolphins trade away a potential pick in the 20’s next year to Denver for Bradley Chubb.

Seattle’s record of trading for expensive veterans isn’t good and without a great deal of cap space to play with, it might be ill-advised. It is something to consider though, if it proves to be that the #22 range in the 2023 draft carries poor value. I would say it’s a distinct possibility.

Clemson pass rusher K.J. Henry only has two sacks in eight games and if that continues it could limit his stock. However — he is a former five-star recruit with the physical traits you’d expect from a top-level athlete. He has been highly disruptive all season and that shows in an 87.0 PFF grade. Henry has also been described as the emotional leader on Clemson’s defense.

Kelee Ringo hasn’t played well enough to go earlier than #22 in my opinion. The Seahawks might feel they don’t need another cornerback (and they’ve steered clear of drafting them early). However, pairing Ringo (a first class size/speed combo athlete) with Tariq Woolen would be interesting. They’d need to work on his technique though and he’s developed a habit of being targeted (and beat) deep more than you’d expect from such a physically impressive corner.

There could be some value at receiver here and the Seahawks could still use a really excellent WR3. Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt is having a fantastic season and his ability to increase acceleration in the final moments of a route to create separation is eye-catching. I’m not sure Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba is quick enough for Seattle (or perhaps even to go in round one) but he’s a skilled, natural receiver.

A lot of people rate Clemson defensive end Myles Murphy as a top-15 pick but I feel more comfortable giving him a fringe first round grade. He’s very athletic for his size, shows a good burst off the edge and is having a very solid season. I just get a Shaq Lawson vibe from him and wonder about his frame. He lacks muscle definition and is pretty limited to a 4-3 defensive end role.

It might be justifiable to trade down from #22 and pick up extra stock but this is also a tactic that has not played well for Seattle over the years. It’s far easier for me to list appealing options in round two than it is to list targets for #22.

Current picks — #41 overall (via Denver) & #56 overall

Now it gets interesting.

The value on day two feels far better than round one. Obviously if players get promoted into round one, day two will suffer. Even so, there are names I like a lot in this range.

Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo is a well sized, dynamic big target with plus athleticism and mobility. The Seahawks appear to be somewhat intrigued by a bigger WR3 type (they’ve taken a look at Laquon Treadwell and JJ Arcega-Whiteside). Mingo is one to watch and is flying under the radar. He glides as a runner despite his 220lbs frame.

A more diminutive option would be Zay Flowers. Don’t be put off by the size — he has better change-of-direction skills and stop-start ability than any other receiver I recall scouting since starting this blog in 2008.

Three other receivers worth mentioning are West Virginia’s tall, athletic playmaker Bryce Ford-Wheaton who seems to be flying under the radar, Tennessee’s other receiver Cedric Tillman (very talented in his own right) and Maryland’s dynamic Rakim Jarrett (who might be a bit too similar to Dee Eskridge).

Tight end isn’t going to be a huge need but Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave is going to be an underrated option for someone in round two with a fantastic combination of reliability, toughness and extreme athleticism.

There should be good O-line options. For me, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan are better suited to kicking inside to guard and I’m not sure I’d take either any earlier than this. Penn State’s Olu Fashanu is incredibly raw as a 19-year-old prospect and his technique is a major work in progress. However, he has natural power and great size and could be moulded into a guard/tackle type. I think he’d be better off staying in college and honing his craft because I don’t think he’s that close to being ready to start at left tackle in the NFL.

There’s an embarrassment of riches at center. None of these players fit Seattle’s and LA’s apparent Austin Blythe/Brian Allen size/style preference (and I think the Seahawks will stick with it, thus the recent return of Joey Hunt for a look-see). That said — John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg, Olusegun Oluwatimi and Sedrick Van Pran all interest me for day two. Tippman and Stromberg are outstanding athletes who will test very well. Schmitz is a powerhouse who plays with violence. Oluwatimi has been a pillar of consistency for Michigan and there’s a lot of upside potential with Van Pran (if he declares).

There are high upside outside linebacker/edge rusher types. B.J. Ojulari is active, long and athletic and has been featuring specifically as a 3-4 OLB. He also wears the famous #18 jersey given to the LSU player who best characterises leadership. Will McDonald has had a poor season for Iowa State but has all of the athletic tools you look for in an OLB/EDGE. He needs a rocket up his arse though.

Michigan’s Mike Morris hasn’t played with a great deal of urgency this year aside from when he ran himself ragged in the Michigan State ‘revenge’ game last weekend. He’s still a big, powerful, athletic pass rusher who can handle power-end duties and could be a flexible EDGE or 3-4 DE.

Alabama’s Byron Young doesn’t get much attention but he has consistently found ways into the backfield this year to disrupt and impact games. He is a potential defensive tackle or 3-4 end. He’s never going to be a spectacular pass rusher but as a steady, consistent performer at the next level who plays with toughness and surprising quickness I think he’s worthy of day two consideration. He has a PFF grade this year of 83.7.

South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens has great size and athleticism at defensive tackle and has the potential to be a very solid, high-upside second round pick. I just worry a little about his stamina and endurance. His motor is good but he seems to get tired. Wisconsin’s Keanu Benton is well worth keeping in mind as another defensive tackle option and as we discussed earlier this week — undersized Pittsburgh pass rusher Calijah Kancey lacks typical measurables (6-0, 280lbs) but he’s a menace with great speed combining with quick, forceful hands to create pressure. He’s expected to run in the late 4.6’s and carries a 90.1 PFF grade.

UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet should be considered in round two. He has fantastic size, contact balance, footwork, he drives through contact, he’s explosive, has good speed and he’s a useful pass-catcher.

Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson isn’t having anywhere near the kind of season he had last year and has been one of the bigger disappointments so far. Even so, he is going to test very well at the combine and with the right guidance could yet emerge as a useful NFL player. In 2021 he was a strong blitzer and a big hitter but we haven’t seen as much of that this year. He only has half a TFL and half a sack in 2022 — despite playing behind the best defensive line in college football.

At safety there are three players I really like in this range.

Christopher Smith at Georgia wears #29 and it looks good on him. He can run to the sideline with great burst and recognition skills. He’ll sprint to the LOS and make good open-field tackles. Smith is a proper free safety who is a good forty time away from being taken in the top-50. His PFF grade is an 83.0 for the season including an 84.8 coverage grade.

Then there’s the two players I discussed earlier this week. Ji’Ayir Brown has an unorthodox, stocky frame but he’s quick, impactful, has nine interceptions in the last 1.5 seasons and is considered the heart and soul, highly respected leader at Penn State. Boise State’s JL Skinner is a violent, big-time hitter with plus run-support skills and the ability to strike fear into opponents on crossing routes and anything short.

Current pick — #87 overall

There are more receivers I like in this range (it’s another deep class). Ohio State’s Julian Fleming hasn’t delivered on his incredible recruiting potential but there’s definitely something there. If he chooses to turn pro, this is the kind of range I’d consider taking a shot on his talent.

Kayshon Boutte has had a tremendously disappointing season for LSU. If it leads to a fall — and I think it should — there will come a time when someone should take a punt on his upside.

A lot of people are projecting Georgia left tackle Broderick Jones in round one. I think he’s arguably more of a guard convert or a swing-tackle. Yet his aggressive style and athletic build would be appealing here. I’d also be interested in Clemson’s Jordan McFadden and Arizona’s Jordan Morgan in this range for the same tackle-to-guard conversion.

Clemson has a fantastic D-line (as noted already) and Tyler Davis deserves some love among the big name players. I’m not sure he’ll go much earlier than round three but he’s a very solid, consistent, disruptive performer in his own right. Florida’s Gervon Dexter flatters to deceive and based on his performances so far, could last into the middle rounds. He has the upside — he’s just never been consistent or that impactful.

I think some big name, slightly overrated linebackers will go in this range. Nolan Smith, for example, looks like a third rounder to me (and has just been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn pec). Iowa’s Jack Campbell and Alabama’s Henry To’oto’o are also marked in round three for me. I have Arkansas’ Drew Sanders in this range after his hot start quietened somewhat.

I really like Ventrell Miller — a great leader, run defender and a tough linebacker who’s been playing through injury all season. I think he has physical limitations though and an injury history that could keep him in the middle rounds. Is he athletic enough for Seattle? Probably not but I want to keep mentioning him anyway.

I think there will be good value at running back in round three — with Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez a big, bulldozing, yards-after-contact tone-setter, Auburn’s explosive Tank Bigsby and Ole Miss’ Zach Evans are also potential options.

I have Ohio State center Luke Wypler graded in round three plus a collection of what I’d call slightly overrated pass rushers — Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah Foskey, Tyree Wilson, Derrick Hall, Jared Verse and Andre Carter. I still think a third round grade is pretty good frankly — and some of these players chose not declare for the 2022 draft in part because that’s likely what they heard from the draft committee.

Current pick — #124 overall

This is where I would personally start considering the next tier of quarterbacks. I appreciate Hendon Hooker is having a great season but he’s also going to be a 25-year-old rookie who plays in a half-field read system in college, often throwing to wide-open (well schemed) receivers. His accuracy is patchy and covered up by the manufactured production. He’s having a great year and deserves a ton of praise — but it’s hard to project him to the NFL.

This is also the range where I’d start to consider Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who I like a lot), Tanner McKee (Mike Glennon II) and K.J. Jefferson.

If you gave me only one choice at quarterback and it had to be retaining Drew Lock to backup Geno Smith or drafting someone in round four I’d probably stick with Lock.

There are three running backs I’d consider in this range (remember — this is all pre-testing and Senior Bowl analysis) — Kenny McIntosh, Sean Tucker and Blake Corum.

This could be the area where TCU’s athletic but inconsistent pass rusher Dylan Horton lands. USC’s Nick Figueroa is a player I think is better than people recognise. He’s a very active defensive end.

At linebacker, Owen Pappoe at Auburn has some absolutely dreadful moments on tape but he’s a superstar athlete. Seattle has often targeted great athletes at linebacker. At SPARQ he ran a 4.47 forty, a 4.00 short shuttle and he jumped a 40 inch vertical. His total score was an elite 147.12. That’s the kind of profile Seattle has gone for in the fourth round range previously.

I think Washington State’s Daiyan Henley could go earlier than this if he tests well. I like him — I just want to see his measurables and testing numbers before committing to a higher grade. Texas’ DeMarvion Overshown will likely not test well enough for Seattle but he’ll have some value if he’s there early on day three.

The final name I want to mention is safety John Torchio. He’s been a real playmaker this year with five interceptions (eight in the last 1.5 seasons). I thought he had a tremendous game in an otherwise miserable night for Wisconsin against Ohio State. He’s gritty, quick and can hit. If nothing else he looks like a core special teamer. I’m intrigued to see his testing results.

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Time to reassess conventional thinking on quarterbacks?

The great thing about the NFL is it constantly keeps you guessing. We all have preferences and ideals — whether it comes to team building, philosophy, positional priority in the draft or a variety of other subjects.

You think you know what you know. Right up until the point something happens that makes you second guess yourself.

The conventional wisdom on quarterbacks is that there are two ways to find a good one. You draft one very early in round one or you get lucky later on. Classic examples are the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert — all recent high draft picks. Then you have the likes of Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and of course, Tom Brady — taken much later on.

For the most part, this is how you find a quarterback. But often you end up taking a position where this is the only way to do it. I know I’ve felt that way for a long time. I think it’s fair to say most people do shut their minds off once they feel like they’ve established a hard truth.

The success of Geno Smith feels like a personal dig in the ribs that this league conjures up the improbable so many times. It’s why there isn’t one single way to win a football game — contrary to what the analytically minded group on Twitter would have you believe. This is a sport of variety and opportunity.

Smith appears to have benefitted from time, experience and being overlooked (creating motivation). His wiser head and patience seems to have aligned with the talent that had him drafted early in round two. Now we see a player being ranked in the top five at his position based on 2022 performance.

This journeyman backup, aged 32, has delivered half a season of top-level performances. He doesn’t look serviceable or decent. He looks fantastic.

Meanwhile the ‘golden child’ Trevor Lawrence is struggling in Jacksonville. Zach Wilson, the #2 pick in 2021 after Lawrence, just had a nightmare against the Patriots.

Several young highly drafted players have been thrust into starting roles and they’ve struggled badly. Some may come out the other side better for it — just as Josh Allen did. Remember, he was an internet meme for two years before the light switched on. Now he’s the favourite to be MVP (ahead of Mahomes, Derrick Henry and, well, Geno Smith).

Others will fall away. Perhaps some will do what Geno has done? Take their time, reassess, develop and perform later in their careers?

Smith’s rebirth has certainly made me consider a few things:

1. Don’t automatically write-off struggling young quarterbacks. Perhaps the league should look at Geno Smith’s experience and be prepared to either play a longer game with these players, or be willing to offer more second and third chances?

2. The unexpected will happen and players can and will prove you wrong.

3. While there’s a race at the moment to draft quarterbacks and then start them immediately in order to max-out their cheap rookie contracts — is this the great idea we all perhaps thought? If young quarterbacks are coming into the league and for the most part are struggling — you aren’t getting any benefit. You’re just blowing a young career and your own high pick.

4. Should more teams be prepared to take a longer-term view of things? Kansas City, when they drafted Patrick Mahomes, sat him in year one and started Alex Smith. Only when they felt Mahomes was ready did they trade Smith and go with the younger player. I’m sure if Mahomes wasn’t ready in year two, they would’ve retained Smith. It used to be that young QB’s sat for some time before being handed the starting job. Now it’s just assumed they come in and start as soon as possible. Maybe it’s time to be more cautious with these players?

As part of a personal commitment to consider these points, here are two key takeaways I’d have:

1. Perhaps Drew Lock — himself a former second round pick — can reinvent his career down the line? He has the physical talent. He seems to be of good character. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s inspired by Geno. It’d be nice for the Seahawks to retain both players after this season — but I wonder if another team will give Lock a better chance to start with the hope he can similarly turn things around?

2. If that does happen, the Seahawks will need to add a quarterback (assuming they retain Geno). I still think it would be ideal to draft a young, high-upside QB who can be afforded the time to learn and develop without the pressure to start immediately. I still think the best option for this role would be Anthony Richardson. His upside is as high as you’ll see in any quarterback entering the league. He needs time. It would be a perfect scenario and provided you’re willing to accept you won’t get those ‘cheap’ early years on his contract — you could set the team up for success in the short and long term with a Geno Smith/Anthony Richardson plan.

The future of the interior offensive line

This isn’t a hot topic at the moment and neither should it be. Eventually, though, it will come into focus.

Austin Blythe and Phil Haynes are both free agents at the end of the season. It’s virtually impossible to imagine them retaining Gabe Jackson with a $9m cap hit. Damien Lewis is also entering a contract year.

Typically whenever we start talking about the O-line, people are immediately drawn to which high picks they can use or which big-name free agents they can sign.

In order to retain Geno Smith next year, the Seahawks are going to have virtually nothing to spend. Their $32m in effective cap space will go very quickly.

They will need to find savings somewhere. People might not like to hear it but their O-line scheme is set up to prosper without big names at guard or center.

The Rams model, which Seattle is using, has plugged players in based on certain body types and profiles. We’ve been through this a fair bit already but a quick recap. Los Angeles have used a smaller, brawling, wrestling type at center (Blythe, Brian Allen). They’ve also done a good job finding converted tackles to play guard.

David Edwards was a tackle taken in the fifth round in 2019. He has started at left guard. Up until this year they started Austin Corbett at right guard. He was a former second round pick for the Browns. He played tackle at Nevada. The Rams gave Cleveland a fifth round pick for him in 2019 and played him at right guard. He performed well enough to sign a three-year, $26.25m contract with the Panthers in March.

Blythe was a seventh round pick claimed off waivers who became a starter for LA. His replacement, Allen, was a late fourth round pick in 2018.

Ideally the Seahawks would go out and create an all-star O-line but the truth is — with the expectation of retaining Geno and having minimal cap space — that isn’t viable. Neither is spending multiple high picks on interior offensive linemen when:

a.) The scheme has shown it can succeed without such investment

b.) Other areas of the team require investment

For example, it’s not just the O-line that will be missing players next year. Poona Ford is a free agent. L.J. Collier is out of contract. Al Woods will be 36 and they’d need to make a call on his $5m cap hit. Shelby Harris would be 32 and is due $12.2m. Quinton Jefferson is due just under $6m.

You’d like to keep the group together but it might not be financially viable and there are ageing players included here. Some long term thinking would be attractive.

They have enough picks where they could dabble in both areas (and I have absolutely zero issue with investing in the trenches on either side of the ball — I would encourage it). But I also think positional value is key. There aren’t any pure guards I’ve seen worthy of a high pick. You could convert a tackle to guard but do you want to do that in the first two rounds? It is, in fairness, a strong center class — but there aren’t any Tyler Linderbaum types who fit the size or profile for the scheme. They are all bigger blockers.

As such, they might seek to retain Haynes (who might not break the bank) and possibly restructure Jackson’s deal. They could try Jake Curhan or Stone Forsyth at guard. The return of Joey Hunt to the practise squad could be an attempt to see if he can provide an answer at center. After all, he has the body type this scheme calls for.

Or they could look for value on the open market.

I don’t know how viable any of these options are because it’s early. Yet there are a decent handful of out-of-contract NFL tackles who might project inside to guard and have more success.

I’d love to think there’s a chance they could get to Isaiah Wynn — a former blog favourite who always appeared more suited to guard than tackle. Atlanta’s Kaleb McGary is a free agent. Mike McGlinchey is struggling at tackle for the Niners but could make a better interior lineman. For me, Jawaan Taylor has always been more suited to kicking inside. At center, Garrett Bradbury will reach free agency.

I also wonder if the Bengals might be close to giving up on Jonah Williams. I was never quite sure why a player with such modest testing results and less than ideal measurables was so highly coveted as a top-15 pick. He is struggling at left tackle and he always appeared better suited to the interior. The Bengals are sorted at guard already.

Williams might be available in the off-season for a cheap trade. He’d be playing on his fifth-year option and it would allow Cincinnati to pursue alternatives at tackle. He could be a sort of ‘Corbett’ trade option for Seattle — although it would cost you $12m in 2023 so that might not be plausible.

If they wanted scheme familiarity — LA’s Edwards is also a free agent in 2023. He’s been placed on IR twice due to concussions which is a concern for the player. It might mean he’s relatively affordable though, should he make a full recovery.

I suppose the point is they have options and there might be ways to be creative.

In terms of the draft, I’ve currently only got one offensive lineman listed as a likely first rounder (Tennessee’s brilliant right tackle Darnell Wright). I think Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is a bit overrated and has the measurables of a guard. I also think Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan, Clemson’s Jordan McFadden, Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, Oklahoma’s Wanya Morris and Miami’s Zion Nelson are suited to moving inside. The draft could provide some solutions here but testing and the Senior Bowl practises will be big in determining final judgements on positional fit and range.

At center — as noted before — there aren’t any ‘size’ fits for the scheme. Yet John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Sedrick Van Pran and Luke Wypler for me all warrant day two grades at this early juncture. Again, testing will be key.

The 2023 D-line class remains a bit of a head-scratcher

There’s a lot of question marks here I’m trying to get my head around.

Why is Will Anderson’s 2022 season a mile away from what he showed in 2021? Is he saving himself? How good is he, actually? Because based on what he’s shown this year, he’s a notch below the Bosa brothers and some other highly drafted defensive ends.

How good is Jalen Carter? When he flashes he looks great but there’s a lack of consistency to his play and he needs to win the leverage battle more often and do the basics right to complement the ‘wow’ moments. Also — what are his measurables because it’s hard to work out how big/long he actually is.

Is Bryan Bresee ever going to be more than a great idea? He’s missed time due to injuries and a personal tragedy but despite his outstanding testing profile at SPARQ — he’s not shown that much when he has played this year.

Myles Murphy is consistently touted in the top-10 but his body lacks refinement. There’s little tone to his arms and for want of a better way of putting this — he appears to have moobs. He doesn’t have a classic edge rusher’s body. He’s clearly very athletic but he gives off a Shaq Lawson vibe at times. Lawson’s never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season as a former #19 overall pick.

K.J. Henry is incredibly impressive and massively underrated but somehow — despite causing havoc every week — he only has two sacks in eight games. Does he have a problem finishing?

Mazi Smith is the most impactful, athletic, disruptive defensive tackle in college and creates pressure every week. He has one sack in eight games. Same question about finishing. He certainly can do a better job timing his get-off.

Calijah Kancey is very athletic and disruptive but he’s 6-0 and 280lbs. Zacch Pickens has ideal size and shows some great skill but he seems to lack stamina and endurance. Mike Morris only seems to play with great urgency when he takes on Michigan State. Will McDonald has everything you want physically in an edge rusher but his 2022 tape is rubbish.

There are lots of players here you want to fall in love with but something always holds you back. As such it’s a class with some potential but also a lot of question marks.

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These are players I’ve recently added to my horizontal board that I wanted to spend a bit of time discussing today…

Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
There are ‘wow’ plays on tape for Kancey, who is an undersized yet dynamic interior rusher. His quickness complements his good use of hands to create pressure through the A or B gap. He can stun blockers with his ability to swipe and slide across the line to wrong-foot guards. He has a fantastic swim move. There are occasions where you can see blockers wary of his quickness and he plays off that. He uses choppy feet to let the guard make his move, then once he’s committed he’ll throw a little head fake, drop a shoulder or just swim by. It’s always exciting to watch a player like this with great skill and athleticism at defensive tackle. The only problem is size. He’s 6-0 and 280lbs. I suspect, given those measurables, he will probably have shorter arms too. It’s a shame because he can reportedly run a 4.69 and jump a 31.5 inch vertical. So he’s fast and explosive. Will it translate at that size though? Aaron Donald, another former Pitt defensive tackle, ran a 4.68 at 285lbs at his combine, then jumped a 32 inch vertical. He also had 32.5 inch arms. So his size shouldn’t be written off — but the chances are he won’t be Donald. After all, Donald had a ridiculous 66 TFL’s and 28.5 sacks in college. Kancey has 28.5/11.5. Even so, the expectation shouldn’t be Donald. It’s whether he can still make an impact. I think he can — but he’s difficult to project in terms of a round grade. At the moment I’m thinking day two simply because the quickness and hand-skill isn’t seen that often.

JL Skinner (S, Boise State)
This was a really fun watch and I immediately plonked a round two grade on Skinner after two games. He’s the kind of safety you fall in love with right away. He’s 6-4, 220lbs and he’s an enforcer. He’s violent. He’s destructive. He has a highlight reel full of massive hits. His closing burst is so good and when he gets you in his sights — bang. He’ll dump you on your arse. Everyone loves to throw around comparisons to Kam Chancellor but this is the first player I’ve legitimately seen who might warrant the tag. He’s not as big as Kam and won’t ever be Kam because nobody will be. Yet it’s a fair comparison for what you see on tape — a big, punishing strong safety who’ll knock your block off. You want him eyeing those crossing routes, creating a fear factor. He’s tremendous in run support. I think he’s faster than Kam and might be more of a chess piece. He accelerates well and he’s no slouch when he gets moving. He’s also well regarded as a strong communicator on the field and he’s all business off the field. I’ve enjoyed listening to his interviews. He is laser focused and no-nonsense. Sign me up for some of this.

Ji’Ayir Brown (S, Penn State)
Another safety I thoroughly enjoyed watching. I wanted to watch him as soon as Jim Nagy tweeted he was the definitive alpha on Penn State’s roster. That’s always something that catches your eye. On tape he’s a quality, playmaking safety. He didn’t disappoint. Brown is constantly around the ball. I’ve seen people claiming he has a lot of opportunistic interceptions (tipped passes etc). So what? He has nine picks in one-and-a-half seasons. He’s doing something right. He’s stocky and reminds me a bit of Quandre Diggs in terms of his frame. Could be a cheaper option (given Diggs is due $18m next year and there’s an easy out in his contract)? There are some differences to Diggs, though. For example — against Michigan he set the edge on a red-zone running play and bulldozed an offensive tackle backwards, stunning the blocker and then wrapping up the ball-carrier as he tried to run to that side. It was more Kam Chancellor-level stuff. He anticipates and reads the field well from deep. He reportedly is capable of a 3.99 short shuttle and a 4.45 forty. Jim Nagy said in his tweet that he also has big 10-inch hands. Watching Brown and Skinner, I couldn’t help but think about the pair of them on the field at the same time. A new tandem. Big, fast, violent, explosive. Brown might not suit everyone because his body type is not typical for his position. I have to say, after watching him, I wouldn’t overthink that.

Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
I’ve talked about Johnston before but I wanted to add him to this piece too. He’s a tough one to work out because at times I watch him and think, ‘this guy is the next DeAndre Hopkins mixed with some Larry Fitzgerald’ (which sounds ridiculous but also kind of fits). Then in other games he goes missing or his technique is a little off and then I start to worry about Kevin White vibes. Yet there’s no doubting Johnson has special qualities and a unique frame. His body type is Richard Sherman-esque. He’s long and quite gangly but also incredibly quick and explosive. He makes sudden, subtle moves to avoid tackles. He has a go-to spin move after running a comeback route to break away from the first defender. Johnston makes clutch plays downfield and he’s an electric runner when he gets going. When his legs are churning it’s a terrifying sight — he runs like the T1000. He looks like an outstanding, special athlete and he supposedly will run in the 4.4’s and jump a 42 inch vertical. I’d like to see him make more of his size/speed frankly. He has long arms — use them to high point better. Box-out opponents. Become unstoppable. Even so — he is a freakish athlete and I suspect the league will be lining up to draft him. He will be a first round pick.

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