On top of my usual quarterback scouting, I’ve been pouring over tape looking for any draft-eligible non-quarterbacks who catch the eye. Today I wanted to highlight a few names before going into my QB notes.

It is really, really hard to find legit first round prospects for 2023 but I do think there are players likely to be available on day two or three who can develop into key contributors at the next level.

I’ll produce a horizontal board soon, listing where I think certain players deserve to be graded. It’s very early, so things can still change.

Christopher Smith (S, Georgia)
A productive senior with five interceptions since the start of last season, Smith is an impressive player with starting potential at the next level. He absolutely flies to the ball with superb closing burst and a downfield, attacking mentality. You see him shift from deep coverage to the LOS in no time, shooting to the ball-carrier. He has terrific range on the back-end and can cover ground quickly to reach the sideline to support a cornerback or break on the ball. He has that ‘eraser’ style where he can give the quarterback a look where he feels confident he was a 1v1 on the outside — then he has the speed to react, run and play the ball. He’s generally in the right spot when he needs to be and his play recognition is top-notch. His stock will depend on how well he tests but he’s a very interesting free safety prospect who appears destined to be a starter in the NFL. Right now a second day grade appears reasonable.

Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
This was a fun tape to watch. Sanders is basically a poor-man’s Micah Parsons. He carries a classic linebacker mentality and has punishing hits on tape, has shown he can work through traffic and flow to the ball-carrier and he looks fast and at ease in the Arkansas defense. He splits his time between traditional middle linebacker and edge rusher. Despite not having typical length for the role, you see plenty of quickness and agility. He can bend off the edge, straighten to the QB and he’s very effective as a situational rusher. Sanders also has a great get-off and that works off the edge. He also does a reasonable job to blitz the A-gap. That’s why I think there’s a bit of Parsons to his game. He can be a combo-linebacker who acts as a plus-rusher in certain situations. Parsons was a freakish athlete and Sanders won’t test anywhere near his level — but there’s still plenty to work with. So far in 2022 he has 6.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL’s four QB hurries, two forced fumbles and two PBU’s. So the production is incredible. He ran a 4.65 forty at SPARQ, jumped a 35 inch vertical and ran a 4.31 short shuttle. Sanders also diagnoses plays expertly. There’s clear evidence of him noticing a quick throw to the outside and then right off the snap, rushing straight to the ball-carrier. He’s rarely in the wrong position and does a good job competing along the front seven. He appears to have an old-school mentality with a modern-day profile. I do worry, however, if you try to make him a traditional linebacker whether he’ll be wasted. The team drafting him has to be creative. He transferred from Alabama and has a year of eligibility remaining so he might not declare. Depending on testing, he could be a top-50 type.

Nick Figueroa (DE, USC)
I was really surprised by Figueroa. He won’t be a high pick but he plays with an athleticism and intensity — combined with his size — that would make me want to take a shot at the next level. He’s big and physical, playing with a great motor. He has shown the ability to bend off the edge and straighten to the QB which is impressive given his frame. He has NFL size and he’s just a very active rusher — always moving, always churning the legs. Tackles never get a breather when he’s lining up against them. He plays to the whistle too. Figueroa has powerful hands and can jolt blockers backwards. He’s also a very capable bull-rusher and can drive his blocker inside to create stunt opportunities off the edge. He needs to finish better to get those sack numbers up but for me he’s a player who could be an intriguing project who plays his best football in the NFL.

Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
Sticking with USC, one of the hardest projections I’ve come across this year is Tuipulotu. Hailed by everyone as the heart and soul of the Trojans’ defense, there’s no denying he’s effective. In a down year for pass rushing in college football he leads the nation with seven sacks. He also has 12.5 TFL’s. I just can’t work out what he is. Tuipulotu is listed at 6-4 and 290lbs but he looks squatty to me — like he’s probably a little bit shorter and maybe doesn’t have great length. That would limit his ability to play defensive end in a 3-4 and he might have to kick inside. It’s not always easy to tell though — bring on the off-season measurements. His tape is a mix of highs and lows. There are plenty of plays where he gets flushed out and even pushed around a bit. Then there are plays where he wins through sheer effort to work to the quarterback and he’s shown an ability to make tackles miss with agility and quickness to bend the arc. His effort is good and I just wonder if he’s someone who could come in and provide a better fit in Seattle’s new scheme at DE and while he might be a bit hit and miss, he’ll flash enough to make an impact.

K.J. Henry (DE, Clemson)
Of all Clemson’s big name defenders, Henry is the one who has impressed me the most this year. He’s an electric edge rusher — so quick and sudden. He can bend brilliantly to round tackles. His initial burst and quickness puts blockers on the back-foot immediately. As an outside linebacker prospect, he has shown the ability to drop in coverage. Henry has always had massive potential as a former five-star recruit but it’s taken a long time for it to shine through. His stat line (one sack, 4.5 TFL’s) isn’t impressive either — yet on tape he just shows up time and time again. He’s more impressive than Myles Murphy for me. According to people in the know, he’s also the emotional leader of Clemson’s defensive unit. He’s more potential than proven production and his NFL future will require some projection. That said, for me he’s firmly in the second round conversation and if he can get those production numbers up and have a great Senior Bowl, he could even sneak into round one.

Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
It’s not often you get a fun-factor from watching a 326lbs nose tackle but Smith is quite the watch. You wouldn’t be able to guess his size watching tape because he has a quickness to his game that is unnatural. He also has a terrific swim move and he can create consistent penetration into the backfield even if the sack numbers (only half a sack so far) aren’t there. He also absorbs plenty of double-teams and while he can get pushed back at times (and certainly isn’t the great wall that Jarran Reed was at Alabama) he also has the ability to plant an anchor. He’s a very active player — not a game-wrecker but potentially a plus starter. He was top of Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ for 2022 and can reportedly jump a 33 inch vertical and a 9-5 broad jump. He’s been clocked running a 4.41 short shuttle and a 6.95 three cone. If he repeats those times at the combine, he will likely be a first round pick.

Jake Bobo (WR, UCLA)
Bobo is likely to be a day three pick depending on how he tests but my advice would be to find a way to get him. He’s 6-5, 215lbs and just such a fluid route runner. He is so precise with his movement, his subtle change-of-direction deceives cornerbacks and he understands how and where to settle down in zone to provide an outlet. Bobo consistently catches the ball away from his body with great technique. He’s an ideal safety valve who can be a third down conversion machine. He also has the size to be a red zone dynamo. He’s shown evidence of quickness and the ability to make people miss — even if his movements are a little bit rigid and certainly I wouldn’t expect amazing agility testing. Another thing he has are long vines for arms that help him high-point the ball to win 1v1’s. Is he quick enough for Seattle, given their need for speed? I don’t care. I think he’ll be a player who is consistent and productive as a third option. UCLA’s triplets of Bobo, Zach Charbonnet and Dorian Thompson-Robinson are all going to provide great value in the draft.

Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Now this was an exciting watch. Flowers’ change of direction is absolutely incredible. It’s like watching a formula one car darting in and out of a chicane. He’s just so sudden and flashes electrifying cuts and the ability to break and create easy separation. With the ball in his hands he’s also creative and very capable of making multiple defenders miss. He’s a joy to watch. He’s also competitive with the ball in the air despite his diminutive size (5-10, 172lbs). He has special qualities. His ability to go through the gears and change direction is unique, I can’t recall seeing anything like this before. He should secure a day two grade with the potential to go higher.

Jaelyn Duncan (T/G, Maryland)
He’s playing left tackle for the Terrapins but he bends at the waist, doesn’t have natural knee flexion to drop and sit and he looks like a player who would benefit from kicking inside. Against Purdue at the weekend he was beat badly off the edge by an impressive sophomore pass rusher. You do see snaps where the feet and hands don’t work together. However, when he gets into position well — he’s athletic enough to stick once he locks-on. His kick-slide is very good and with his size he’s difficult to manoeuvre. Put him at left guard and let him come off the ball and drive at people. Use his athleticism to pull at guard and get up into space at the second level, rather than asking him to mirror elite speed off the edge. I’m not sure we’ll see Seattle’s O-line at its best until they have converted tackles at guard like the Rams use. For me Duncan looks like a day two option.

Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)
Miller has really impressed me so far this season. I’m not sure he’s going to blow anyone away with his testing (he was a former three-star recruit) but his play has been consistent, effective and he holds Florida’s defense together. He’s also a warrior. He broke his foot against Kentucky and missed the USF game — a contest where Florida’s defense was consistently gashed in the running game (giving up 286 rushing yards). He’s taken pain-killing injections ever since, padded up and things have improved greatly. The Seahawks have repeatedly sought great athletes at linebacker and have focused on speed, agility testing and explosive traits as a priority. Miller isn’t going to run particularly fast or jump high. He might not have the athleticism to be effective at the next level. But what he does is fill gaps, run to ball carriers, play his heart out, do his job and the Seahawks need a lot more of that on defense.

Quarterback notes

Let’s be realistic about Hendon Hooker

He got a lot of publicity over the weekend after a win against a transitioning, bad LSU. His performance was a mixed bag and some issues (inconsistent accuracy, propensity to miss easy throws while also providing highlight moments) showed up again.

He started the game feeling his way into things with some WR screens. With LSU playing a sloppy first quarter, the Vols didn’t have to exert too much energy to race to a 13-0 lead.

Then with 14:45 left in the first half, he threw a wonderful pass for a long touchdown. It was a beautiful throw, one of the prettiest of the season so far, to the left corner of the end zone. He lobbed it from the 50-yard line with precision and ideal touch and velocity to get in behind two LSU defensive backs and allow the receiver to run right under it. It was a fantastic play and a strong indication of what he’s capable of.

But then there were the issues that haven’t really been discussed this week amid all of the hype.

He didn’t recognise a blitz with 9:51 remaining in the first half, was absolutely hammered sitting in the pocket and fumbled. Tennessee were fortunate a running back reacted quickest to retrieve the ball.

On his next series Hooker then threw two wayward, inaccurate WR screens for incompletions that should be bread and butter throws. He then missed over the middle on 3rd and 10.

In the next series he missed again on another throw down the seam, forcing Tennessee to resort to the WR screens again to try and re-establish some rhythm. Yet the struggles continued. He had a wide open receiver by the left sideline, double-clutched, then threw late and high and missed his target badly. On 2nd and 10 with 15 seconds in the first half remaining, his receiver settled down at the marker needed to get a field goal. I paused the screen and the nearest defender is 10 yards away. All Hooker has to do is throw softly in the general area of his wide open target. Instead he throws badly behind and it’s incomplete. It’s a horrendous throw.

He made amends on his next pass and they got their field goal —- but you can see where I’m coming from with these inaccurate passes.

Hooker started the second half with a nice QB draw for a big gain, then followed up with a touchdown pass on a slant after the covering LSU defender fell over.

He then had an awful fumble deep in his own half on another QB draw where he was loose with the football. Again, the Vols were tremendously lucky that one of their players recovered it. On 3rd and 11, he threw into thick coverage and was fortunate the pass was knocked away rather than picked off.

Overall nothing about this performance changed by opinion of Hooker. LSU were disgustingly poor and he made some good plays, one great play and also had some ugly moments. I still think he’s a player to be drafted in the third or fourth round range to develop and possibly use as a plus backup, rather than someone I’d expect to start in the NFL. He faces Alabama next which should be interesting.

Same old, same old from C.J. Stroud

Statistically people will think Stroud had a major performance against Michigan State. He finished 21/26 for 361 yards and six touchdowns (plus one interception). Yet the same positives and negatives showed up yet again against MSU and their horror show of a defense.

On the positive side — he had a sensational third and long throw downfield, launching off his back-foot and off-platform with no balance, dropping it beautifully into a bucket for an inch-perfect, incredible throw that leaves your jaw dropped. It’s just sensational touch and accuracy.

He also had a couple of really well executed back-shoulder throws for touchdowns to the front corner of the end zone. He seems to like those.

On the negative side — you continue to see the intermediate accuracy issues. He had a horrible miscommunication on his second series leading to a pick-six. Most of the touchdowns were easy against a useless defense.

It’s impossible to deny Stroud’s talent and potential. He can make magic happen. There’s also so much he has to learn and he has to complement the spectacular with the basics. He needs to do the little things well and learn how to properly read coverages, manage an offense, make adjustments and execute with greater consistency — all without the supporting cast he has at Ohio State.

He will go early because of the talent but he’s far harder to project than Will Levis and for that reason, probably ends up being the second quarterback taken.

Anthony Richardson shows off his potential again

Florida’s quarterback again flashed insane physical talent in the win against Missouri. He had a huge run on 4th and 2 to set up a crucial touchdown. He also had an outstanding thrown on the run for a touchdown.

That said, he also stuttered in the first half and had another interception later on (although I think it was a little bit unlucky this time).

I just can’t get out of my head that if Richardson gets time and is developed properly, he could be a superstar. I don’t know if he’ll declare this year but he might be Seattle’s best bet for someone they can realistically get to — then redshirt — and feel good about the long-term investment and upside.

If Levis is destined to be the top pick and if Stroud joins him in the top-three — you’re going to find it hard to move up. Re-signing Geno Smith and selecting Richardson wouldn’t be a bad plan and could set the team up for the long term at the most important position.

BYU’s Jaren Hall sees slump continue

He started the Notre Dame game with an interception on the first snap. Hall feels the pressure and for some reason the ball just comes out fluttering. A total duck and an easy interception.

With 13:04 left in the first half he stared down his receiver to the right hand side, throws an inaccurate pass behind the intended target and it’s a dropped interception that would’ve been a pick six. Awful.

He then takes a horrendous safety in his own end zone. He needed to get rid of the ball and do something other than just stand there waiting to get hit.

Hall finished the first half with eight passing yards.

His first two touchdowns were easy — a red zone conversion to a wide open receiver and a blown coverage.

He had a cice throw to Kody Epps late in the game over the middle — showing good anticipation and placement. He also suffered from a couple of drops that should’ve had DPI flags before each receiver was given a chance to fail to make the catch.

Generally speaking though he was just off for most of the night. Even on a wide open pass in the third quarter, he somehow managed to throw behind his target. In the last two outings Hall has looked nothing like the player who started the season so well. Next he faces Arkansas. He needs a big game there because his stock is slipping.

Tyler Van Dyke has a bounce-back game

Watching the Miami vs North Carolina game made me quite angry. What Mario Cristobal has done to TVD — even in a productive performance — is staggering. He is a shadow of the player we saw at the end of last season.

I say that even after he went 42/57 for 496 yards and three touchdowns. He started really jittery — as we’ve seen a few times. His timing and accuracy was off, he looked nervous. Last season he looked like the man — he came out throwing, dominated opponents and exuded confidence. Cristobal has made him a quivering wreck.

Thankfully he snapped out of it just enough for some of the old magic to return. Some of the typical seam throws and mid-range passes he’s so good at started to connect with accuracy and touch.

He had an amazing touchdown under pressure right before half-time. With a defensive tackle draped all over him, clinging to his leg, he had the strength and wherewithal to somehow get a throw off and find a receiver in the end zone. A magical, creative play.

TVD was virtually flawless on third downs all night and his third touchdown was nicely thrown with lots of flight. He drove the ball into tight windows and he looked a bit more like the 2021 version.

That said — to me it would still be best for him to transfer at the end of the season and go somewhere better in 2023. My shout is still Kentucky to replace Will Levis. Van Dyke has the talent and the ability — but he’s playing in a horrible, conservative offense for a coach who is developing a reputation for making good QB’s underperform.

They’ve also lost three games in a row.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson delivers again

For all the talk about Hendon Hooker and Michael Penix Jr — DTR doesn’t get anywhere near the same attention. Why?

He is playing brilliantly and leading UCLA to an undefeated run stretching into last season.

This was another top performance against Utah. He looks in complete control of the offense. He’s throwing accurately and on time. His arm strength is good and allows him to make plays around the field. When he needs to make a play with his legs he can. He’s showing to be a fantastic point guard.

The only blotch on his copy-book was a late pick-six which was poorly thrown. I have no idea why they were throwing anyway — there were seconds left and the game was won. Run the ball, run down the clock. What were they doing?

Even so — he finished 18/23 for 299 yards and four touchdowns with a QBR of 94.9. He also ran a touchdown in from short range. I also liked his fire on the sideline in this game. He’s leading this team superbly.

I think he’s brilliant and well worth considering in the middle rounds.

I don’t have a problem with drafting a couple of quarterbacks in 2023 — a high pick and a later pick. I’d even be open to adding Taulia Tagovailoa as an UDFA too. It’s a deep class and you might as well take a few shots to find the eventual successor to Geno Smith.

Speaking of Smith, if you missed this earlier, check it out…

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This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams.

There’s a new draft notes article coming later today.

I wanted to wait until after the New Orleans game to post this.

After all — I’d witnessed the Saints come to London, devour Minnesota’s offensive line and turn Kirk Cousins into the check-down-Charlie he has a tendency to become.

This was a real test. Not the cakewalk we saw in Detroit or against the Falcons.

Geno Smith passed the test with flying colours.

I don’t need to post all the rankings and statistics that other people have researched — you’ve probably seen them all by now anyway. The ‘TLDR’ version is simply that he’s in the top-five in virtually every quarterback-relevant metric. He is currently PFF’s highest graded QB with an outstanding 90.2 grade.

Frankly, he’s been a revelation.

Yes there have been some slow moments. The first three games saw the offense grind to a halt after half-time. They failed to score a point against the admittedly excellent San Francisco defense.

Yet the performance in New Orleans, despite the upgrade in opponent, once again showed off what Smith has done so well to start 2022.

A lot of people are praising his ability to execute the offense (which he is doing very well). I think he’s gone beyond that. I don’t think he’s just ‘functioned’ his way to a 90.2 grade. I think he’s actually in attack mode.

He’s taking the fight to the defense. He’s throwing with confidence, poise and more than a hint of aggression. However, the accuracy and timing remains.

It’s been so impressive to see him throw to all levels of the field with so much skill. The touchdowns to Tyler Lockett on Sunday were textbook and brilliant — the kind of throws we’d all be amazed by if Justin Herbert was the one throwing the pass.

He’s taking the chance to challenge defenders 1v1, he’s throwing over the middle, he understands when to check down, he’s being creative with his legs. Geno Smith is playing like a X-factor talent.

He is making the most of his two key receiving weapons. The tight ends are a dynamic factor in Seattle for the first time in the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have the #1 offense per DVOA and it’s not an illusion or a red-herring.

It’s simply that Geno Smith is playing that well.

I’m happy to admit my concerns have so far been proven completely wrong. In fairness, I don’t think anyone expected this — short of those investing blind faith. But I was especially critical because I expected a player who would function against bad opponents then be shut-down by moderate-to-good opponents.

I thought he would be a turnover risk when pressured or when feeling the need to score and keep pace in explosive games.

None of that has been the case. He’s instead been attack-minded and dynamic without risking turnovers. Smith has elevated his play far beyond anything we saw in his previous stints as a starter, or any snaps he had in pre-season with the Seahawks.

He deserves tremendous praise — which he is getting from the fans and media — and he’s developing into something of a cult hero. A phenomena.

If it continues the Seahawks should start talking him up as ‘comeback player of the year’ during media conferences. Get a little momentum behind the campaign.

It’s actually a shame the defense is so horrendous that he isn’t getting the support his play deserves. Even if the unit were middling, they’d have a chance to win any game with the offensive output they’re producing.

It’s not only Smith who deserves credit though. The receivers and tight ends are stepping up too. The two rookie offensive tackles are providing great confidence for the future with the way they are starting their careers. Shane Waldron is creating the kind of production we all hoped a Sean McVay protégé would provide. Pete Carroll deserves credit because his faith in Smith has been unwavering and it has been repaid.

This season is about finding green shoots for the future and the offense is certainly delivering that. This is good news.

Admittedly there are still 12 regular season games remaining and things can change. If this continues though, it’s a big positive for the Seahawks.

So what does it mean for the future?

A lot of people are already talking about extending Smith’s contract or at least retaining him for next season. On his current trajectory, that would appear to be a no-brainer. There are some things people need to remember though.

Firstly, he will be a man in demand if he keeps this up. If Kirk Cousins can set records for guaranteed money as a free agent — don’t put it past someone making a humungous offer for Smith if he continues his fine play.

The Seahawks don’t have much cap space to play with in 2023. The media keep talking up their spending power because Russell Wilson’s dead money comes off the books. Most of it has been spent already. Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, for example, will cost a combined $36m against the cap next season. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will cost $31m. Uchenna Nwosu and Shelby Harris account for nearly $26m currently. Will Dissly and Noah Fan will cost $17m.

As of today, Seattle is only projected to have $32m in effective cap space for 2023. They can create more but not much more — and will create holes that need filling on the roster if they start cutting veteran starters.

Making the situation worse is the fact they only have 33 players contracted for next year — the third fewest in the league.

The $32m in cap space will evaporate quickly as they fill out their roster.

They simply don’t have a lot to play with, unless they want to extend Smith on a long-term contract and produce a smaller cap hit for next year. That would be a risk given he turned 32 yesterday and might not benefit from the ‘surprise’ nature of his 2022 re-emergence in future seasons (or even later this season).

If he continues to play this way, he might even start asking for major money. The top quarterbacks are being paid $50m a year these days. He wouldn’t get near that — but Jimmy Garoppolo’s last contract paid him nearly $28m a year. That’s not unreasonable for a player performing like he is at the moment. The Seahawks couldn’t afford that unless, like Garoppolo, it was a five-year extension.

I think the Seahawks fully intended to have a quarterback in 2023 that was on a rookie contract. I think they spent accordingly this year because they anticipated not spending at quarterback. I think that was their plan.

Smith’s form has probably surprised them as much as it has us, regardless of what Carroll might say about believing in Geno. If they truly believed, he wouldn’t be on a proportionally tiny one-year contract which now looks great value for 2022 but a problem when the season ends.

It might force the Seahawks to run the risk of losing Smith if another team bites and snatches him away. Ideally they keep Smith and draft a quarterback and have the best of both worlds — but they could end up having to go the rookie route anyway.

It’ll be fascinating to see what his market ends up being.

I also hope the Seahawks show restraint and more or less stick to the plan. Smith is into his 30’s and not likely a long-term solution. It’d be great if he could be Seattle’s answer to Alex Smith in Kansas City. That way, they can be aggressive to find a long-term successor, redshirt them like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes and possibly get a handsome trade return for Smith when it’s time to pass on the baton.

While the top priority might appear to be fixing the defense — as I’ve spent considerable time noting recently — the answers are unlikely to come in the first round of the 2023 draft. This is a class with a collection of four highly talented but different quarterbacks plus Will Anderson and Bijon Robinson who deserve a high-ish first round placing. After that it’s extremely hard to identify top-15 players, game-wreckers and playmakers on defense.

Getting a young quarterback in a good year for the position at the top of round one remains a very enticing proposition.

Fortunately I also think there are defensive diamonds to be uncovered on day two and three and I’ll write about some of them in an article due out this week.

As Smith continues to excel and be Seattle’s ‘MVG’ (rather than ‘MVP’) — setting up a Smith/Mahomes transition would be the best thing to do for the long-term future of the franchise. That might mean negotiating with Smith now, taking a slight gamble that he continues his great form while also getting a bit of a discount because you’re securing his future today and placing a bet on his continued success.

He might wish to bet on himself, of course. He also might appreciate a show of faith and some long-term security that probably felt a million miles away just a few months ago when he was simply fighting to win a starting job.

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This was a slightly different scouting week, with two big name quarterbacks not featuring.

Will Levis has been sacked 18 times in five games and finally, the beating caught up to him. He missed Kentucky’s game against South Carolina. It probably boosted his stock because without him, the Wildcats fell to a horrible home loss to struggling South Carolina.

Bryce Young was always likely to miss time after leaving Alabama’s game against Arkansas with a limp arm. He didn’t play against Texas A&M and ‘Bama were fortunate to escape with a win.

It gave me a chance to focus on other players, specifically non-quarterbacks, over the last 48 hours. I have an article coming this week breaking down a collection of prospects who’ve caught my eye — along with my usual QB notes.

But I’ll stress again — I am really struggling to find legit top-15 players for the 2023 draft.

I suspect two quarterbacks — Will Levis and C.J. Stroud — will go very early. It’s possible Bryce Young goes very early too although that will depend on how teams view his size and thus, his durability. Anthony Richardson’s ridiculous upside could also mean he is a high first round pick, despite his mixed 2022 season so far.

Will Anderson is not a Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa level player but he is the best bet at acquiring a defensive playmaker. He will go early.

I think many teams will have Texas running back Bijan Robinson as possibly the highest graded player on their board although his position will have a say in how high he goes. In a weak top-end, he could easily go in the top-10. I wouldn’t be shocked if Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is also rated very highly.

Michael Mayer, the tight end from Notre Dame, could also go very early if he tests well at the combine. His change of direction skills at his size are freakish and he’s been a highly consistent, productive weapon for the Irish.

Bryan Bresee missed his second game at the weekend with a kidney infection, having also missed time due to the sad passing of his younger sister. Unfortunately, having missed most of last season with an ACL, it’s hard to project him given how little he’s playing. I know he’ll test very well at the combine so there’s an upside projection that could get him into the top-15.

Jalen Carter is also injured and missed Georgia’s latest win. It’s unclear when he’ll return with Kirby Smart being quite vague at his press conference today. I am not convinced he’s the top-10 pick many project and without a fantastic combine, is more likely to be graded in the later first round.

There’s a dearth of draft-eligible game-wrecking defensive linemen. I am yet to see a single linebacker worthy of a first round projection. The safety position is weak at the top end. There are cornerbacks who can emerge but it’s tricky to project them on tape because teams are avoiding them (and still moving the ball).

That’s not to say good players and rough diamonds aren’t there. Clemson pass rusher K.J. Henry, for example, could end up being a day-two steal. His upside and potential is top-notch — but it’s taken him years to make it happen at Clemson and despite his improved play he has one sack in six games.

I like the depth later in the draft and I think good players can and will be found. At the top of round one, however, it’s a mess. It’s virtually impossible to find players worthy of a legit first round grade.

Currently, the Seahawks would gain the 10th and 11th picks in the draft. There’s a long way to go in the season — but if it finishes that way or something similar (and I suspect it might) I think the best thing to do would be to trade up.

Carolina have to be the red-hot favourites to get the #1 pick now that Matt Rhule has been fired and they are embracing a tank. They’ll likely start to sell-off assets.

Seattle needs someone like Pittsburgh or Las Vegas to keep losing so they can get into range for a trade. This is shaping up to be the worst top-15 in many years. Moving up to get a quarterback or Anderson is the smart move. Currently, anyone watching a lot of college football can say with a high degree of confidence you will not be able to find two players at #10 or #11 that can elevate Seattle’s struggling defense.

Furthermore — and people keep forgetting this — Geno Smith is a free agent in 2023. There’s no guarantee he’ll be back. And if he keeps playing the way he is currently, he’s going to be extremely expensive.

Right now the Seahawks only have $32m in effective cap space for next year because of decisions such as committing $36m in cap hits to Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. We shouldn’t assume Smith will be easy to retain, or that a young, cheap quarterback is no longer a need. Or, for that matter, that the defensive players exist in this draft that can change the fortunes of a unit that has started each of the last four years badly, has gone through different coordinators and coaches, tweaks and changes and cannot find a formula that works.

I suspect a trendy viewpoint among fans will be to go defense with their two first round picks and then wait on the quarterback until round two or even three. I cannot stress enough — unless you can get to Will Anderson, I’m not sure any defensive player is going to tilt the balance of this unit from shambles to acceptable. Even he is unlikely to have a Bosa/Garrett/Parsons level impact.

And as I continue to absorb 6-8 college football games a week — including tape of all of the big name QB’s — I cannot say with confidence there is a quarterback worth taking beyond the top group. Perhaps UCLA’s vastly underrated Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the exception (and if you’re drafting him, make sure you grab Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo while you’re there).

That is why I’m so eager to see defensive improvement. This team cannot create excitement and faith in the future without the defensive unit performing better. They don’t have to be elite. Pete Carroll wants complementary football. So complement your offense — which is performing way beyond realistic pre-season expectations. Become average rather than abysmal on defense and you’ll win plenty of football games with the offensive production you’re currently churning out.

Create an environment where scoring 103 points in three games gets you a winning, not a losing, record.

We need to feel good about players like Darrell Taylor, Jordyn Brooks, Poona Ford and Quandre Diggs — not wondering aloud how we replace them, in a scheme none of us can say is actually any good or suited to your key players.

The top of the 2023 draft class isn’t going to be a knight in shining armour for the Seahawks defensively. The players already on the roster need to be better. The answers are going to need to come creatively — via wise trades, solid drafting and good moves in free agency. They need to put their players in a position to succeed. I’m not sure this scheme suits them at all. The evidence certainly suggests it doesn’t.

We need to see defensive green shoots on the field in the coming weeks.

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Well, what is there left to say about this defense?

The Seahawks have scored 103 points in their last three games and won only once.

The unit is a shambles. It’s woeful, tragic, embarrassing.

The biggest concern today was supposed to be how the offense would handle New Orleans’ pass rush. Instead, they moved the ball well. Geno Smith had another strong outing. They had explosive plays in the passing and running game. The offense did its job.

All the defense had to do was hold up their end of the bargain against a Saints team missing two key receivers. Then, they lost a third key receiver. They were starting their backup quarterback.

Instead they gave up 438 total yards. They gave up 8/14 on third downs. They conceded another 235 rushing yards.

They allowed Taysom Hill to run all over them.

The ugliest moment came when they were defending a one point lead and New Orleans lined up a formation that included zero receivers. Everyone knew what was coming. And it’s Taysom Hill not Saquon Barkley. Watch your gaps, contain, get the job done.

Nope. A 60-yard scoring run.

Hopeless.

There’s no pass rush. They are virtually playing without one at this point.

The linebackers are playing so badly it beggars belief.

Quandre Diggs appears lost.

And before anyone plays the youth card — this is a unit that has expensive, experienced players and high draft picks at every level. There’s no excuse to be this bad.

We’re not talking about growing pains here. We are talking about a mess.

It’s not good enough. This is the fourth year in a row that the defense has started the season performing abysmally. Growing pains for young players you can live with. An entire unit consistently playing this poorly?

We’re overdue an improvement.

It’s time for serious questions to be asked.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

Now comes a real test.

After a training camp, three preseason games and a month of games that count, the Seahawks are quickly running out of excuses for their poor play.  Adjusting to a new defensive scheme should not take this long.  Veteran players should be leading the way, not getting outplayed by rookies.

Something’s gotta give.

The Saints just might be the perfect test to see where the Seahawks are.  They have a talented roster made up of veterans and some exciting young players, an established record of success against the Seahawks and a chip on their shoulder thanks to two very close losses this year.

They are also a fit for the Seahawks because they are coming off a game a few time zones away in London, are banged up and have not been nearly as tight under Dennis Allen as Sean Payton had them.  They are currently worst in the NFL in giveaways and turnover ratio, are second-worst in penalties called and have been slow starters.  

It betrays their effectiveness in the other areas of their game.   It should surprise no one that they are both 1-3 and favored to beat the Seahawks on Sunday.

How can the Seahawks take the next step with a win?

Control the Game Script

This game might be the ultimate test of strategy and gamesmanship.

The Seahawks are one of the best teams in the NFL in first quarter scoring so far this season.  The Saints are one of the very worst.  It is hard to imagine a Saints team coming back from London, with an unsteady quarterback situation and missing a star player like Michael Thomas coming out of the gate quickly.

That’s the good news. 

The bad news?  The polar opposite is also true.  The Seahawks are one of the worst scoring teams in the fourth quarter on offense – and one of the worst defensive teams – while the Saints are one of the best on offense.  They have scored nine touchdowns this year, six of them in the fourth quarter.

The Saints close like a freight train and play fantastic when their backs are up against the wall.  The Seahawks like to build a lead and pray to the heavens above that they can hold it until the clock reaches zero.

With the way the defense has performed to date, it will likely fall on the offense to carry more than their share for this game.  They will need to capitalize when the Saints come out of the gate slowly, turn the ball over or shoot themselves in the foot in other ways.

They will also need to not let off the gas pedal.  If they have a 14-3 lead in the second quarter for instance, they will need to avoid the temptation to simply maintain their lead by playing conservative football.  They need to build on it.

The fourth quarter will be the time to try and drain the clock.  Keeping the ball out of the Saints’ hands with a lead will be critical.  It will require a level of planning and execution they have not accomplished as of yet.

Do Not Let Alvin Kamara Take the Game Over (Again)

If you could go into a lab and build a player to specifically attack this Seahawks defense, you’d get Alvin Kamara.

He is fast, hard to tackle and deployable as a real weapon all over the field and the Seahawks defense has arguably had more trouble with this one player in recent seasons than anyone else.

His last two games against the Seahawks:  55 touches, 340 yards, 14 first downs and 3 touchdowns.

That is about as good a two-game stretch against any one team as you are likely to find in the NFL.

Here is what makes Kamara so good when he plays the Seahawks — yards after contact in the run game and yards after the catch in the passing game.

72 of those rushing yards came after contact and  222 of the receiving yards came after the catch.

Tariq Woolen is correct when he said Kamara is “like water” when you are trying to tackle him, so smooth and silky.  He may not be the biggest or the fastest but he is incredibly hard to take down on the first try.  He has balance and a fierce determination to stay on his feet.  Package that with an innate ability to present unclean angles to the tackler and his ability to absorb contact and it’s no wonder he annually is in the top two or three players in broken tackles.

With the lack of effort and the open lanes we have seen from the Seattle defense so far this season, getting Kamara to the ground effectively might be the difference between winning and losing Sunday.  Kamara is that good and the Seahawks have been that bad.

The best thing I can say for defenders is to have a tackling plan for Kamara.  Watching tape, I cannot tell you how many times I watched defenders think they can just knock Kamara down with a shoulder-to-shoulder type hit.  Maybe it is because Kamara is not the biggest player.  Maybe defenders are just programmed that runners his size fall down when you hit them that way.  I am not sure.  But everyone needs to be committed to wrapping Kamara up, no matter what.  Got that, Cody Barton?

Pete Carroll is absolutely correct when he speaks about knowing the situation when tackling.  There are times when you blow the player up, times when getting him to the ground is the best option and times where the best thing you can do is grab on and wait for help to come.  The Seahawks currently have no concept of those times.  That seems like a pure coaching issue but that is where we are right now.

Given how poorly the defense has played these first few weeks, it is hard to have much faith that the defensive staff will get this problem corrected with three days of practice and a couple of film sessions.  Kamara presents a serious challenge in tackling.  If anything, we will be able to gauge the coaching staff’s effectiveness with as big a test as it gets on Sunday.

One thing we can praise the defense for with Kamara is the halftime adjustment they made last year to combat his effectiveness in the passing game.  Her burnt them to a crisp in the first half with eight catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.  The Seahawks responded by double covering him when he ran routes in the second half.  Result?  Only two catches for 19 yards.

Jameis Winston struggled with his security blanket taken away.  He was 5-for-15 in the second half targeting everyone else and was sacked twice and the Seahawks were nearly able to close the gap and squeeze a win out.

To be fair, the Saints did not have much in the way of receivers in that game.  Now, they have Chris Olave and Jarvis Landy (Michael Thomas is out).

It is also possible Kamara will not be 100% as this is his first game back from an injury.

Still, with the amount of damage he has done to the Seahawks’ defense in the last two games, nobody on the defense should get set in their pre-snap positions without knowing exactly where #41 is and what their assignment is for him.

Win the Receiver-Corner matchups

Get your popcorn ready for Metcalf-Lattimore II.  Last year Metcalf tormented, taunted and abused one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks with a signature performance.  It is a shame the Seahawks could not get him more touches.

What is in store this week?  Metcalf threw some serious cold water on the ‘Jeff Okuda is becoming a lockdown corner’ party last week.  Another dominant performance would take some real heat off this poor defense and further cement his legacy.

Tyler Lockett and Bradley Roby should be a great matchup as well.  One underrated thing we are learning about the Seahawks’ offense post-Russell Wilson — chemistry with Tyler Lockett was not a sole possession of Wilson that left with him when he went to Denver.  

Lockett makes his quarterback look very, very good as long as he is competent in getting him the ball.

Both Roby and Lattimore are scoring in the 50’s in PFF rating this year.  So this should be a very big test for them to see how they are really doing this year.

How about the other side of the ball?

Chris Olave is quickly taking his place among another great crop of talented young receivers.  The Saints traded third and fourth round picks to move up five spots in the first round to select Olave at #11 and he is rewarding them with a great rookie season only four games in.

A matchup with fellow rookie Tariq Woolen will be fantastic television.  Will it happen?  The Saints line up Olave all over the field but at the moment he is predominantly lining up on the right side.  So, Sidney Jones or Michael Jackson will likely cover him the majority of snaps.

Woolen will not be bored, though.  He will have Jarvis Landy to cover.  He has been one of the NFL’s most productive wide receivers and is looking to recover from a down year and a change of scenery to New Orleans.

Can Geno Redeem Himself?

Week 7 last year was Geno Smith’s second start and his third game for the Hawks in 2021.  

His play was dreadful.

He was 12-for-22 for 167 yards and a touchdown.  He was sacked five times for 38 yards, so his net passing yards were 129.  Eighty-four of those yards came on one play — the busted-tackle D.K. Metcalf touchdown in their first series.  So put another way, he only managed a measly 83 yards of passing the rest of the game.

He was hesitant.  He was jittery in the pocket.  He scrambled only once, gained 12 yards and then shut that down for the rest of the game.  He threw two terrible balls right to Saints defenders that should have been intercepted.  Freddie Swain was targeted more than Metcalf or Tyler Lockett.  You get the idea.  

It did not help that the running game could not generate much of anything – linebacker Demario Davis owned center Kyle Fuller in this game and Rashaad Penny was M.I.A. – or that Jason Myers missed two field goal tries, or the weather was inclement.  But Geno did nothing to elevate his team’s play.

Not many things would help the Seahawks more than for Geno to put that behind him and turn in a solid performance in this game.  A duplicating of his game last week against Detroit is too much to ask.  Remember – the Lions are on a historic pace for ineptitude on defense this year.  They might go down in the record books as one of worst defenses in the 21^st century if they do not get their issues sorted out.

New Orleans poses a much greater challenge.  They have a good defense, with some pieces at every level that needed to be accounted for.

The defense has put up good numbers for being hamstrung a bit by the offense.  They lead the NFL in giveaways so far this season.  Absent that, the defense likely would look much better.

One matchup that should provide some intrigue is how they defend tight ends.  Through four games, the Saints are the best in the NFL at defending tight ends.  Granted they have not faced a murderer’s row just yet but Kyle Pitts and Cameron Brate are nothing to sneeze at.  They will face a good challenge with Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant coming into New Orleans Sunday.

Here is the primary assignment for Geno in this game — make good reads and good decisions.

Why?  The Saints are 30^th in the NFL in blitz percentage so far this season.  They are preferring to keep defenders in the backfield and force the quarterback to go through his progressions.

As a result, they are clamping down on explosive pass plays, only giving up 36 first downs through the air, good for fourth lowest in the NFL.

The tradeoff is their quarterback pressure percentage and sack numbers are in the cellar.  Bottom five in the NFL.  Here’s where 2022 Geno can run circles around 2021 Geno.  He will have time to process.  He will need to be patient and slowly plod down the field at times.  A little bit of dink and dunk might be just what the doctor ordered.  Sprinkle in some timely scramble runs when he sees them available.  Bide your time and then take a shot or two to your downfield threats.

Currently the offense is running out a 40/60 run/pass split.  While that feels like a bit of a mockery of the “run first” mantra Pete Carroll preached for years, Smith has settled into an approach Carroll is far more comfortable with — take care of the football, take what the defense gives you and take your shots when they come instead of trying to make them.

Can he keep doing that against a far better defense than Detroit’s?  How Geno controls the tempo and pace of this game will tell us a lot about the Seahawks’ chances for a successful offensive season this year and whether Geno has a chance to put together a full season of good play.

Here’s what I’m watching this weekend in college football:

Missouri vs Florida
Tennessee vs LSU
Ohio State vs Michigan State
BYU vs Notre Dame
North Carolina vs Miami
Alabama vs Texas A&M
Oregon State vs Stanford

I’ll also be attempting to get access to the other key games involving quarterbacks as usual. I’ve also been busy watching non-QB prospects this week and have a whole bunch of notes ready to publish (stay tuned).

Quarterback watch

I’m not expecting a difficult day for C.J. Stroud against Michigan State. For well over a year now, the Spartans have been disgusting defending the pass. Stroud should have a field day here.

The game I’m probably most interested in is Jaren Hall and BYU against Notre Dame. This is the start of an intriguing double header for Hall (he faces Arkansas next week). Can he perform better than he did against Utah State? Can he go and get a big win against the Irish?

We’ll see if Bryce Young plays against Texas A&M. He’s listed as a game-time decision. This game is particularly intriguing given the bad blood over the summer between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban.

Tyler Van Dyke will start for Miami against North Carolina. There’s no doubt he’ll be fighting for his job now. I’ll watch the game and check him out but it seems clear his best bet will be to transfer in the off-season and have another go next year. I still think Kentucky would be a good destination for him in 2023.

Speaking of which, UK and Will Levis host South Carolina in a game they really should win. They need to bounce-back from the defeat at Ole Miss.

I will watch Hendon Hooker for Tennessee against LSU and Tanner McKee for Stanford against Oregon State. Elsewhere, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and UCLA host Utah in a very interesting game I wish I had access to. The Huskies and Michael Penix Jr go to Arizona State.

The Florida game against Missouri will have already started when I get home from work but I’ll watch it all back on catch-up. It’s a good test for Anthony Richardson against a Tigers team who pushed Georgia all the way last week. K.J. Jefferson and Arkansas go to Mississippi State. I would like to watch this game — but not to see a quarterback. More next week.

Go on draft websites or peruse ‘draft twitter’ and you see a rarely challenged consensus.

The top two quarterbacks are C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Barely anyone tries to offer a different take.

Slowly but surely, however, the tide is starting to change.

For starters, Mel Kiper listed Will Levis as his second ranked quarterback, behind Stroud. Now, there’s this report from Levis-sceptic Tony Pauline:

If you talk with scouts, it seems that Will Levis of Kentucky is the signal-caller they are most enamored with. He’s a Josh Allen type in the sense he’s big, athletic, and has a major league arm but will need proper coaching and development.

One league insider told me Bryce Young and CJ Stroud are rated higher on Draft Twitter than they are in the scouting community. Young’s size and lack of arm strength are a concern, and Stroud’s inconsistency in the short passing game has raised some red flags.

What has felt obvious for some time is finally developing into a new consensus.

Levis isn’t the perfect prospect and I’ve never tried to argue he is. I watched all of his 2021 games during the summer and I’ve watched (and written up) all of his 2022 games so far.

Clearly there are still some moments where his footwork becomes slightly lazy and it’s led to a couple of avoidable turnovers. There was a moment against Ole Miss last week where he saw a 1v1 in the red zone he liked, rushed the snap and a potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because one of his receivers didn’t have time to get set.

Yet Pauline’s report makes total sense.

I’m going to try not to keep repeating myself because it’ll become very dull and it’s only October 7th. We have months of debate ahead of us. However, this warrants a quick review.

Teams can easily turn on the Kentucky tape and see transferable pointers. They can see a player who is succeeding on a team that isn’t loaded with 5-star recruits. Levis plays behind a suspect offensive line and has been sacked 18 times in five games.

He’s facing adversity.

He played for Liam Coen last season, the current LA Rams offensive coordinator. This year he’s running Kyle Shanahan’s offense because Rich Scangarello replaced Coen. Within this scheme he takes snaps under center, he makes the reads and adjustments at the line, there is evidence of going through three progressions and he is functioning like a pro.

Then there are the traits. Levis is a burly 6-3 and 232lbs. He is an outstanding athlete. At SPARQ he jumped a 36 inch vertical, ran a 4.10 short shuttle and delivered a whopping total score of 123.27. He has a big arm and his throwing base — when he avoids the occasional lapse — is sound and secure with both feet on the turf, his shoulders square to the target and he can do all the fancy modern throws off-platform and on the run.

Plus, he has tremendous character and no red flags.

Everything here is factual and will be very appealing to NFL teams. Decision makers, when asked by their owner why they want to select Levis, can answer very easily.

He doesn’t have to have a flawless final season at Kentucky either. The basis for a high draft pick is not a Joe Burrow Heisman campaign, when he had the luxury of throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU.

Levis is getting it done and simply put, Stroud and Young cannot match any of the above.

That’s not to say they are bad players. They’re not bad players.

But look at Stroud. Here’s a player who gets to play behind a star-studded O-line, throwing to multiple first round receivers, with five-star running backs in the backfield. Before every snap, the coaches on the sideline make his reads for him and instruct him what to do.

That’s why you see interceptions like this:

Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀

CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM

pic.twitter.com/5SNbkFmOJv

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022

You need to get off that target because nothing about the coverage says ‘throw the ball here’. When you’re essentially being told what to do pre-snap, however, this can happen.

Stroud doesn’t play in a pro-style offense. Ohio State has churned out a collection of very productive athletes at quarterback over the years and there’s a consistent trend that this environment is not transferable to NFL success. You don’t face any adversity and in the pro’s you have to make your reads, make the calls, lead the team and do it all behind a weaker offensive line with playmakers who aren’t going to win every 1v1.

Then there’s Bryce Young — a naturally talented passer and the Heisman winner from last season.

Yet he too benefits from the ‘Bama effect’. Aside from the games against Georgia — which are a fair contest — every other game he plays in, he’s playing an overmatched opponent. The line and skill players. The physicality and guidance. It’s all so far ahead of everyone else. It doesn’t make for an easy projection to the next level.

Then you have to account for his size. It’s long been confirmed, including by Todd McShay recently, that he’s a shade above 5-10 and around 185lbs. How do you project that to the next level? There isn’t anyone to compare to.

Let’s say he gets drafted by someone in the top-10 — presumably without a great supporting cast (or at least with a developing offense). Can he take the punishment that will come with playing on a bad team?

Only last week he suffered a shoulder injury. And look, injuries happen to big, physical quarterbacks too. But this question is going to linger with Young. You can’t blame teams for taking this into account when putting together the order on their draft board. They’d be negligent not to.

For all the good Young shows on tape (and there is a lot of good) there are also moments that seem all too familiar having watched a shorter quarterback playing in Seattle for some time. He bails on the pocket more often than people are noting. He had a horrendous interception on a needless scramble-and-heave a couple of weeks ago and the shoulder injury supposedly happened on a needless escape last week.

I’ve seen, every week, Levis stand in the pocket with pressure coming right at him. He’s stood tall, delivered a throw and taken a hit in the pocket. Some of his best throws have come in these situations this year.

That’s NFL football. That’s what teams want.

This is why when we get to April, we’re going to see a handful of teams fighting and clawing for Levis. It’s why he might end up going first overall. It’s why I think he’ll be QB1 on a lot of boards.

If the team picking first overall somehow doesn’t need a quarterback (which seems incredibly unlikely given the way the Jets and Jaguars are improving), there’ll be a scramble to move up and select him.

The Seahawks have the stock to make a move but whether it’s possible or not, we’ll see. I’m sure many people reading this — or speaking on Twitter — will determine it’s not worth it given the offensive performance so far. I would also remind people that Seattle’s offense feasted on a Lions defense as embarrassing as theirs. Before the Detroit game, the offense had produced three points in six second-half quarters. They were shut-out by the 49ers.

I’m not sure the Big-12 game last week was indicative of a team that no longer requires a long term answer at quarterback.

Let’s also not forget — Geno Smith isn’t even contracted to Seattle next year. Even this season, when he was presented with his only opportunity to start in the league, he delayed putting pen to paper because (presumably) he wasn’t totally satisfied with the terms. That signing took longer than most people expected.

NFL free agency starts in mid-March. Despite seemingly receiving very little interest elsewhere, these are the dates he officially signed with the team since initially joining in 2019:

2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 22nd

So on two occasions he didn’t sign until two months after the league year started and on two occasions it was a month after. There may be other reasons for that (prioritising other positions ahead of backup QB) but it’s worth noting that even this year, it took until April 22nd to get a deal done.

As such, it might not be the easiest negotiation in the world if he continues to perform. It’s just something to remember. The ideal situation for this team remains having a talented young quarterback on a cheap contract with club-control for five years. We’ve seen how much that has benefited teams over the years.

Admittedly the Seahawks also have to get better on defense. Again, without wishing to repeat things I’ve already gone over a fair bit, the blue-chip defenders are simply not emerging within this draft class.

I would go as far to say that this might be the worst looking top-10 I’ve covered since starting the blog in 2008. You basically have Will Anderson who warrants a very high pick. The quarterbacks always get elevated. I’m not sure I’ve seen another player who warrants going that early.

I genuinely believe this is shaping up to be a draft where one very high pick (top-three) will be better than two firsts in the middle of round one. I don’t see a way to ‘fix’ this defense picking twice in an easily projectable 8-16 range.

I can’t see a single offensive lineman worthy of the top-10. The other defensive linemen are more 16-32 range types. There are no receivers playing well enough currently to warrant a top-10 pick. The top two cornerbacks for me (D.J. Turner & Kelee Ringo) aren’t being tested enough to pass judgement.

In 2020 you had Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons who were all big name college players who went, unsurprisingly, in the top-10. Then you had a handful of highly rated O-liners and some high-profile receivers follow shortly after. It enabled a Justin Herbert to trickle down to #6 overall. I suspect the same would happen in 2023 with C.J. Stroud if those types were in the draft next year. They aren’t, which increases the likelihood a QB-needy team will take him once Levis and Anderson are gone. Perhaps even before Anderson.

With every win the Seahawks move further away from the top picks but also, it’s hard to see how they pivot to improving the defense. Which is why, right now, I’d probably make the case for trading up.

The only plausible scenario I can imagine where you don’t — or feel comfortable not doing so — is if Anthony Richardson declares. I’ve watched all of his games for Florida and I’m well aware of his inconsistencies and mistakes. I also see a player with the physical potential to be special. To do what Josh Allen did — be an error-strewn rough diamond in college, need a couple of years in the pro’s then emerge as a superstar.

Richardson has that potential.

Allen was the seventh pick in 2018, with Buffalo trading up from #12 to get him. If Richardson declares — the Seahawks could pull a similar move. Then you have a player you can work with to be your future without perhaps needing to use multiple first round picks to get into the top two or three.

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This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen…

A discussion is warranted about the state of the salary cap next year and how the Seahawks can start looking at shaping the future of this team.

Why now?  Why not wait until the offseason to discuss this?  

There are things the Seahawks can do right now to strengthen their roster for 2023 and given the state of the team they need to start incorporating some of these decisions into their current game day roster and snap count allotments sooner rather than later.

We will dive into that in a moment.  Let’s start by looking at what they have to work with on the salary cap in 2023.

Where the Seahawks stand

According to Overthecap.com, the Seahawks currently have 33 players contracted on their roster and $34.037 million of effective cap space available for 2023.

What is “effective cap space”?  That is a projection OTC has done – they take the projected salary cap, considered the players the team has under contract and then add in the projected rookie pool cost based on the team’s current draft picks (the Seahawks have nine picks – a total of about $13.9 million of rookie salary) and then fill the rest of the 51-man roster with minimum-salary player slots as a placeholder exercise.  That number will fluctuate as the team’s 2023 draft picks change with their record (and Denver’s) as well as any personnel moves the Seahawks make.

We need to factor in a chunk of money for an injured reserve cushion, practice squad players and the Seahawks tend to carry a little free money to cover any players acquired after the bulk of the summer is over.  Call that about $6 million.

That brings us to about $28.037 million of “spendable” money for 2023.

That is an alarmingly low number for a team that does not have a quarterback under contract.  The expectation last offseason was the Seahawks would have nearly all of Wilson’s cap money set aside for 2023 to go shopping with. Maybe more.  In fact, they have a very modest amount to spend and several needs to address.

Where has the money gone?  That was Rob’s question this summer.  I recommend you have a look at the piece, as this article is a companion of sorts to that one and builds on the concerns Rob raised.

What will they need in 2023?

The Seahawks will need to fill these spots on their roster:

• A starting quarterback and a backup
• Replace or re-sign Rashaad Penny at running back
• Replace or re-sign Austin Blythe at center
• Replace or re-sign Poona Ford on the defensive line
• Replace or re-sign Jason Myers at kicker
• A linebacker to replace Cody Barton
• Pass rush help is always a need

That is by no means an exhaustive list.  Those are the key needs.

They will also need some important reserve pieces, such as a guard who can start at a moment’s notice, a third safety to plug into packages and a Travis Homer third down and special teams type.  Not to mention a veteran cornerback and perhaps a veteran wide receiver for depth.

So overall, $28 million of room is nowhere near the slush-fund that most of us envisioned when the Seahawks freed themselves of Russell Wilson’s big contract.  They will need to tread very carefully and spend wisely this offseason, something that has been a real challenge in recent years.

There is some good news to be had.  Of that list of starters they need to plug in, they can fill some of that with 2023 draft picks and keep that $28 million intact.  

A future quarterback from the draft is a must have.  Even if he does not start Week One.

It would also be hugely beneficial to once again have a very good draft and walk out with – at the very minimum – a starting center and a starting linebacker plus a running back and a defensive lineman you could work into the lineup.  They could look at drafting a kicker.

How they can help their future cap this season

The Seahawks should be applauded for making liberal use of their rookie class this season.  Charles Cross, Abe Lucas and Tariq Woolen are locked in as starters for the foreseeable future and are developing nicely.  Boye Mafe’s role on the defense is growing by the week.

But this team needs to keep pushing more of their young, cost-controlled players into the forefront of their lineup.

Pete Carroll must invest snaps in the back end of the roster on players that have a future with this team.  

This is an area where the Seahawks have not exploited their cap assets for maximum benefit in the last few seasons.  The roster has been littered with cheap talent that was sat on the sidelines in favor of vastly more expensive veteran signings that provided only marginally greater value.

For instance, last season the Seahawks frequently played Benson Mayowa ($4.6m cap hit) in favor of Alton Robinson ($0.867m cap hit) and yet they produced nearly the same results.

Marquise Blair was limited to a very spotty role in favor of Jamal Adams.

Colby Parkinson’s post-injury rookie year was practically non-existent due to Luke Willson being active for a few snaps on gameday in 2020.  He was then only targeted eight times last year.

Cody Barton was drafted to ease the workload of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright.  That never materialized.

We are seeing the impact of these choices now.  

Robinson is still not fully known as a player in his third year, Blair tried and failed to convert into a nickel corner, Parkinson is just now displaying his skillset and has been a very nice addition to the tight end group in his third season and the team is discovering that Barton is a disaster in a role that requires much, much more than the spot start and mop-up duty they have given him in prior seasons.

It is up to this organization to commit to the future right now.  They have several players on the roster who could develop into real 2023 contributors given some snaps this year:

On offense:  Colby Parkinson, Phil Haynes, Dee Eskridge, Ken Walker

2023 is Parkinson’s last year of his rookie contract.  What a blessing that could be to the team if he could keep expanding his role and then give them 30-40 catches and 4-7 touchdowns at $1.17 million in 2023.  

Haynes is an unrestricted free agent next year.  The Seahawks thought enough of him to tender him at $2.5 million and he has some potential at both guard spots.  The obvious expensive veteran blocking him is Gabe Jackson.  Why not put Damien Lewis in Jackson’s spot and give Phil Haynes the left guard job and see what they can do with that setup?  Are they really getting so much more bang for their buck with Jackson in?  He does not have a future with Seattle beyond 2023, probably not even beyond 2022.

Eskridge has the same number of touches as Marquise Goodwin so far this year.  Why?  He is under contract through 2024 and Goodwin is not.  There is no argument – Eskridge should be getting more touches right now.  Yes, he appears brittle but that is exactly why you have Goodwin on the roster – to cover that possibility, not to block Eskridge’s development.

Ken Walker has 21 touches through 3 games.  Seven touches per game is not nearly enough for this team to make a confident decision about his impact and whether they should invest significant money in the 27-year-old Rashaad Penny in 2023.  I know it is early.  But given this team’s track record, time’s a-wasting.

On defense:  Ryan Neal, Coby Bryant at outside CB, Tre Brown and Alton Robinson

Ryan Neal has been a great utility player at the defensive back position and on special teams for the Seahawks.  They now have 13 games to see what he can do at the starting strong safety spot.  He is a Restricted Free Agent in 2023, so the team has control of him.  However, as an undrafted player, they get no compensation if another team offers Neal a contract the Seahawks do not want to match.  If they want to retain him, they may have to offer him enough money to scare other teams off.  Therefore, they need to determine right now if he can be worth it as more than a rotational player.  Why would they need to consider using him as a starter at strong safety in 2023?  You know why.

Coby Bryant has worked at nickel with Justin Coleman injured.  If they get Coleman back soon, could they get a look at Bryant at his natural LCB spot?  They might be hindering his development by trying him out at nickel after featuring mostly at LCB in his college career and working at his natural position extensively in training camp.

Brown and Robinson will need looks this year if and when they come off injured reserve.  The Seahawks will no doubt be cautious with them but they need to get on the field and show what they can do.  

Imagine the Seahawks going into 2023 with full confidence in Woolen, Brown, and Bryant?  Maybe Michael Jackson too.

Or having Robinson, Mafe, Taylor and Nwosu up to speed on the edges so they can focus precious resources on acquiring an inside pass rusher.

None of these players are being blocked by outstanding talents ahead of them on the roster.  They all have skills and traits the Seahawks like.

They are going to have to make some hard decisions this offseason.  Would it not be far easier to make some of those decisions if you have tried out your young players with enough actual game snaps to make the best evaluation you can?

This may require Pete Carroll to consider pausing his ‘Always Compete’ philosophy and giving players he might deem not immediately worthy more snaps and opportunities.  But there is a very strong argument to be made that a slight drop-off in quality temporarily could greatly benefit the team in the long run.  Like when they have a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract and have $60-80 million to spend in 2024 and will not need to flesh out the roster with expensive role players.

Areas where the Seahawks can pick up some cap space next year

There are some expensive veterans the Seahawks will need to take a hard look at and make some business decisions on this coming offseason.

The caveat being the team will take on some dead money for most and for all will need to replace that player on the roster.

Gabe Jackson has a $9.5 million cap hit.  $3 million of that is hitting their cap no matter what they do.  Picking up $6.5 million of cap room by cutting him seems a foregone conclusion given his age in 2023 (32), his play last year and so far this year and the fact that the Seahawks have options at his position between Damien Lewis, Jake Curhan and potentially Phil Haynes.  There is no deadline that would force a move before the league year starts.  They could assess their options in the free agent market and the draft and then decide.

Shelby Harris has a $12.27 milllion cap hit.  $3.27 million of that is hitting the cap no matter what they do.  There is $9 million of cap room available by cutting him.  They do have a bit of a deadline with Harris, as he has a $2 million roster bonus due March 22 – a week into free agency.  The Seahawks have options here.  They can make some other moves and see where they stand in the market before deciding on Harris.  Or they could negotiate him down.

Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson are in the same boat.  They would each cost the Seahawks about $2 million in dead cap to cut and would bring just under $4 million of cap room each.  Bryan Mone would bring about $2.79 million if cut with a $1 million cap hit.

Uchenna Nwosu is an interesting one to consider.  He has a big cap hit of $12.76 million next year.  They could cut or trade him and pick up $8.01 million of room but that seems unlikely given his excellent play so far.  They could go the other way and work out an extension if they see him as part of their long-term plans for the team.  There could be the opportunity to save say $2-4 million by spreading out the 2023 cap hit on such an extension.

Noah Fant has a $6.85 million cap hit as the Seahawks picked up his fifth-year option earlier this year.  It is all guaranteed salary – no dead cap money if they were to trade him.  If the Seahawks get a good look at Parkinson and Dissly continues his steadfast play, they could possibly deem Fant expendable and see what he could fetch in the trade market.  That would be a win-win as they could make fine use of the draft pick they get back and find all kinds of utility for that $6.85 million.  Or again, they could go the other way and extend him and realize some 2023 cap savings.

Quandre Diggs ($9.9 million savings / $8.2 million dead cap) and Will Dissly ($3.05 million savings / $6.2 million dead cap) seem like moot points at the moment, as they are firmly entrenched as part of the organization and culture in Seattle and would cost as much or more as they save.  Diggs will need to play much better to keep that conversation at bay though.

There is one more player we need to discuss in greater detail.  The elephant in the room.

We need to talk about Jamal Adams

How many times have we said or thought that in the past 2+ years?  This trade has been a pox on the franchise since it was announced.  

Where do the Seahawks currently stand on his contract?

He will have a cap hit of $18.11 million in 2023 between salary and accrued bonuses if they keep him on the roster with his contract intact.

There is $21.33 million of prorated bonus money that still needs to be accounted for if he is cut or traded this coming offseason.  On top of that, Adams has $2.56 million of salary that will guarantee on February 4, 2023.  It is guaranteed for injury, so unless Adams comes back from a torn quad this season (extremely unlikely), that money will be owed.

So that is a total of $23.89 million that would hit the cap if they cut him loose.

It is time to have the conversation.  The Seahawks need to be ready to move on from Jamal Adams.

He is incapable of staying healthy.  The last three seasons have ended prematurely due to serious injuries.  It appears to be getting worse.  This year, he could not get through one day of training camp before breaking his finger.  He could not get through one regular season game before tearing his quad.

What are the chances he stays healthy all year in 2023?  Very, very unlikely.  Will he even be fully recovered from his current injuries in time to play?

Cutting him with a $23.89 million dead cap next year is a painful hit.  Particularly when you consider they just swallowed $26 million on Russell Wilson this year.  With Wilson, they got a significant return in trade to soften the blow.  The only joy they would receive from cutting Adams is cleaning up their 2024 cap number.

But consider for a moment what is at stake if the Seahawks do not address his situation this coming offseason.  As a vested veteran, his $11 million salary for 2023 becomes guaranteed in Week One.  He could get injured again, spend most of the year in the trainer’s room, collecting his full salary and accruing that $18 million cap hit — and then the Seahawks would still have a remaining dead cap hit of $14.2 million in 2024 if they wanted to cut him then – making it a total sunk cost of $32.2 million.

Swallow $23.89 million now on your terms or take a chance you will need to swallow $32.2 million.

What is clear — the Seahawks need to address Adams’ contract before the start of the league year so they know what kind of space they have to work with.  

The options…

• Cut Adams outright.  That means all $23.89 million hits their cap in 2023 and they are clean going forward.  There is no cap saving in 2023.  In fact, that is about a $5.8 million extra hit on the cap, taking them to under $23 million of free spending room.  Doable — but that restricts your available room.
• Cut Adams with a June 1st designation.  This would split the dead cap between the next two years, with approximately $9.69 million hitting in 2023 and $14.2 million hitting in 2024.  This would open up $8.42 million for the team to spend in 2023 after June 1st.  They could use that money to better their 2023 team, or roll it into 2024 and use it to mitigate the damage of the $14.2 million dead cap.
• Contact Adams and initiate talks to renegotiate his contract.  Three seasons and three season-ending injuries at the very least warrants this approach.  The Seahawks would be foolhardy not to see the necessity of having the discussion.  They need to be prepared to part ways with Adams if they cannot get an equitable reduction in pay.

There is no way to really know how receptive Adams’ team would be to that discussion but there should be a fair possibility they can come to a compromise and reduce his 2023 cap hit sizably, which opens up more room to supplement the current roster and offers them protection in the high likelihood of another serious injury.

A trade is not a realistic option.  Adams will not be able to pass a physical until well into the summer and no team would want to give the Seahawks a draft pick for the privilege of taking on that massive contract for a player with his injury history.

Again, why are we talking about this now?

Adams is done for the season.  Only 15 snaps into his big extension.  It will be a hard pill to swallow, particularly when you consider the Seahawks could have had at least two or three rising young talents on the roster right now when they badly need them instead of a broken player who has provided very little benefit to the team in three seasons relative to the cost.

But laying out the options helps us to understand now – the Seahawks have some real decisions to make with this player.  The sooner we all grasp that, the better equipped we will be to understand the issues this team is facing in 2023.