
Pete Carroll was either dodging a key question today, or he’s delusional
Today I want to get into what I think are the key topics that we should be discussing.
1. Pete Carroll’s comments today are hard to digest
Speaking on 710 ESPN, Carroll rejected the need for significant changes with the team after another hugely disappointing home loss:
“Not for one reason at all do I think we have to restart this thing.”
Part of the problem in Seattle is this complete unwillingness to take a much needed reality check.
As Larry Stone noted in his post-game piece yesterday — the Seahawks have become one of the worst teams in the NFL.
They aren’t good enough. The current team is not even close to contending at the business end of the season. You can make major changes within one or two off-seasons to return to contention. Other teams have shown that. But you actually have to acknowledge that change is required.
This isn’t one hard-luck season. The reset has been a mess. Bad draft picks. Wasted money in free agency. An absolute disaster of a trade, acquiring Jamal Adams.
They’ve now won one playoff game in five years — against a rudderless Eagles team featuring a 40-year-old backup quarterback.
The Seahawks have been in a steady decline for some time and it’s finally caught up with them. They just aren’t as good as Carroll thinks they are.
They once set league-wide trends, built one of the best rosters in NFL history and reached the summit by winning a Super Bowl. It’s easy to imagine how that makes you feel like you can do no wrong. Yet those days are very much in the past. The Seahawks have increasingly become stale and jaded.
Yet rather than accept this, they seem to be living off former glories. And while nobody should deny Carroll the glory of that initial wave of success — the rebuild from 2018 has been mistake riddled and increasingly desperate.
The inability to acknowledge this has done as much damage as anything and will go on creating major damage going forward. Nothing will hold the Seahawks back more than leadership clinging to the idea that they’re close when they aren’t.
The delusion that this team is better than it is has led to major short-term thinking and a distinct lack of long-term planning. There have been too many band-aids, too much misplaced confidence.
There’s been a hubris and arrogance about this regime for too long. They give the impression they think they’re the smartest guys in the room, when the rest of the league is having a chuckle in the background.
That, combined with an ageing coach needing to win right now, is helping to create the situation we see today.
I sincerely hope that Carroll was saying what he thought needed to be said in a live interview to avoid making headlines, when he spoke to 710 ESPN today. Because if he genuinely thinks this team is good enough, then that alone is all the evidence anyone needs to know change is required.
I’ve long thought Carroll won’t have the stomach for a major rebuild and that he would embrace the inevitable and walk away at the end of this season.
I never imagined he’d actually think this team is still… good.
If he genuinely believes the best thing is to simply have another go in 2022 — that’s staggering. And that cannot be acceptable to ownership.
They have to make a change — regardless of whatever other moves follow regarding the quarterback and/or GM.
2. What should the next era look like?
Increasingly this has become the big talking point. After all — if you’re going to pitch change, like many are, you’re duty bound to at least suggest a few alternatives.
That’s why I take issue in part with the more vociferous members of the ‘trade Wilson’ group. They don’t have a plan at quarterback. They haven’t studied the QB’s in college football. They just want change. Yet these same people often push back against criticism of Carroll, because they’re not entirely satisfied with the alternatives.
None of the suggestions below are perfect. Yet I’m not sure what would constitute a ‘perfect’ idea. After all — Carroll worked out wonderfully well. I’m pretty sure if someone suggested appointing Carroll a few weeks before the end of the 2009 season as a replacement for Jim Mora, the response would’ve been a mix of for and against. Justifiably so, too — given his prior NFL record and the way things were turning at USC.
Personally I would like to see the current ownership group take inspiration from Paul Allen. He was able to land two of the biggest names in coaching to lead his franchise. He sold both Holmgren and Carroll a vision and they delivered for him.
If Paul was around today, I doubt he’d be settling for anything less than another impact coach with a big reputation and a track record of success.
This is why I’ve made the case for going after Sean Payton. I sense some fans roll their eyes every time I mention this. Yet there’s smoke around his future in New Orleans. Only this week there was talk of Ryan Pace and the Chicago Bears going after him. He’s actively held confirmed talks with the Rams and Colts in recent years.
I’ve seen some people bemoan the idea of Payton working with Russell Wilson because Wilson, despite his similar stature, is a very different quarterback to Drew Brees. I think people forget that Payton has won games with Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill.
He’s shown he’s adaptable. I’d back him to come up with a system that works for Wilson, regardless of how similar or not he is to Brees.
That would be my ideal scenario. I think it would create a needed buzz. Payton has been adept in the past at building a strong coaching staff — something that I think has let Carroll down badly in recent seasons.
I appreciate, however, that even if this is perhaps more likely than some are prepared to acknowledge — the odds are stacked against it. If for no other reason than other teams potentially being interested and the need to initiate some form of trade to make it happen (although Chicago has no more draft stock than Seattle).
Let’s run through some alternatives.
I mentioned recently that I like the idea of cleaning house and installing Ed Dodds as GM. He is Chris Ballard’s hand-picked right-hand-man in Indianapolis. He has a reputation as a superb talent evaluator. Tapping into the Colts front office, to me, would be a sound plan. They have managed the Andrew Luck retirement admirably and remained competitive. They draft, trade and sign well.
I also think the Seahawks, if they are reaching a point where a major rebuild is needed, could do with an executive to lead the rebuild with an expertise in scouting. They need to start hitting on high picks and find a quarterback. It’s pretty much a ground-zero rebuild if you move on from Carroll, Schneider and Wilson.
Dodds spent 10 years in Seattle so he knows the franchise. He’s seen what building a winner looks like in two different jobs. If Ballard respects him enough to hand-pick him to be his number #2, then that’s a good enough recommendation for me. Ballard has shown himself to be an astute, talented GM.
I actually prefer a situation where Jody Allen appoints a new franchise ‘leader’, having removed Carroll and Schneider, and then gives that person the opportunity to decide what to do with Wilson.
I don’t think a new ‘head of the franchise’ should be told what to do at quarterback. It should be their choice. I think that makes the job more appealing — you can choose to rebuild around Wilson or acquire stock to go in a different direction.
Even so, I think Dodds should be a name the Seahawks are having internal conversations about.
Here are some Head Coaching names I also want to bring to the table. Feel free to add your own suggestions in the comments section.
Matt Eberflus (DC, Colts)
I wouldn’t be against appointing Dodds as GM and bringing Indy’s defensive coordinator with him. The Colts are a well coached team across the board. If the idea is for Wilson to stay, then you likely need an offensive-minded leader. If he moves on, I don’t think it matters as much. Eberflus has put together a top-10 unit per DVOA. The Colts’ turnover percentage is 17.9% — second only to prolific Dallas (18%). Frank Reich is a fantastic Head Coach and anyone who’s worked alongside him, for me, warrants consideration. I’d only be for a move like this if Eberflus was able to bring in a first-rate offensive coordinator. No more Bevell, Schottenheimer or Waldron types.
Kellen Moore (OC, Cowboys)
Moore has had a meteoric rise from backup quarterback to coach to offensive coordinator. The Cowboys are loaded with talent to make life easier for a play-caller. It’s also hard to know whether Moore is even Head Coach material. It’s one thing to call a good offensive game, it’s another to be responsible for an entire roster. If they wanted to go in this direction, I would look to bring in Chris Peterson as a football tsar. He has a relationship with Moore and might warm to the idea of a job in football that doesn’t necessarily require the exhausting schedule of a college coach. He could be a mentor for Moore and a figurehead for the franchise to consult ownership, with a GM brought in to handle recruitment.
Nathaniel Hackett (OC, Packers)
If Carroll departs and Schneider stays, it won’t be a surprise if Hackett is on Seattle’s radar. If you are wanting Seattle to trade Wilson and then go after Aaron Rodgers, this is what you should root for. Rodgers and Hackett are very close, with huge mutual respect. Schneider is said to have a connection with Rodgers due to his time in Green Bay. There’s no chance Rodgers would come to play for Carroll in Seattle — but I suspect he’d be open to joining Hackett and Schneider. It’d be expensive — but as someone who has lobbied for teams being able to turn things around quickly if you spend your resources wisely, I do think it’s possible for this plan to work. Provided the Seahawks stop wasting picks and money at positions like ‘box safety’ and ‘linebacker’ and start spending money on the trenches.
Josh McDaniels (OC, Patriots)
If you’re planning to trade Wilson and bring in a rookie quarterback, I think this would make sense. It’s 10 years since McDaniels crashed and burned in Denver. He’s spent the last few years flirting with a return to a top-job, famously reneging on the Colts gig. However, he’s shown with Mac Jones this year that he can do a lot with the right kind of passer. For me, Carson Strong is the most talented quarterback eligible for 2022. Strong is also an ideal fit for the type of offense McDaniels operates. If you wanted to go in that direction, I think you can do a lot worse. Belichick disciples have not had success when they venture off on their own. Yet few have put themselves in the position to deserve a second chance. McDaniels has done that.
Doug Pederson (unemployed)
Pederson’s spell in Philadelphia is quite strange. He turned around a flailing franchise and won Philly’s first ever Super Bowl. He did so despite losing his franchise quarterback during the season. That Eagles season is one of the best coach-jobs in living memory. Yet as Carson Wentz’s world collapsed, so did the Eagles. The fact Nick Foles was so popular in Philly seemed to impact Wentz as much as the injuries. By the time they were drafting Jalen Hurts in round two, the situation began to implode. Pederson was out and yet he’s still a Super Bowl winning coach who did a tremendous job. I think he would thrive in Seattle. He’d get to work with an established quarterback or move in a different direction. He’s shown he can build a staff. It’s an appointment that might not blow anyone away but it’d make a lot of sense.
Todd Bowles (DC, Tampa Bay)
I’ve always liked what Bowles has been able to do as a coordinator. Give him talent and he produces results. I can’t blame him for not succeeding with the Jets. It feels like a cursed franchise with problems at the very top festering down. Provided he was able to bring a top play-caller with him, it’d be intriguing to see what he could do in Seattle. He’s also worked with, and had success with, Jamal Adams in New York. It’s the kind of hire that might give you a shot at getting something out of that trade.
Three names I suspect will get mentioned that I haven’t included are Eric Bienemy, Dan Quinn and Brian Darboll.
In Bienemy’s case, I’m just not sure how much he personally has contributed to the Chiefs offense rather than Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. He’s been passed over for many previous jobs with people citing disappointing interviews and some character baggage from his past.
With Quinn, I think he’s landed on his feet with the Cowboys — at the time they acquired Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons. Yes he deserves credit for putting them in a position to succeed. Yet in Seattle he had the benefit of working with the LOB era Seahawks and now he’s inherited a fantastic situation in Dallas. He took Atlanta to a Super Bowl largely thanks to Kyle Shanahan creating a MVP season for Matt Ryan. Once Shanahan departed, the wheels fell off.
I thought Darboll did a fantastic job elevating Josh Allen last year and expected big things again this season. Buffalo coming out throwing against Seattle again and again last season will stick long in the memory. Hearing Carroll say he expected a heavy dose of run, only for Darboll to do the exact opposite, showed a coach willing to adapt to his opponent. Too often Carroll has been left wanting in that regard.
Yet Allen and the Bills have endured some tough moments this year. They’re still set to win the AFC East. I’m just not sure we’ve seen enough to really invest in a coach who has been something of a journeyman over the years. And let’s be right here — Allen is a physical phenom who covers a lot of warts.
3. Russell Wilson and the Giants
We’ve discussed this connection a lot for obvious reasons. With a trade feeling increasingly likely, the Giants stand out as a strong contender for Wilson.
Firstly, they were linked heavily with him in 2019 before he signed his most recent contract. Secondly, Jordan Schultz — and then Ian Rapoport — reported that Wilson had extended his list of potential destinations to include the Giants. Then, Albert Breer casually predicted Wilson would be New York’s next quarterback in a social media Q&A.
Adam Schefter reported yesterday that both Head Coach Joe Judge and quarterback Daniel Jones would be back with the Giants in 2022.
It’s time to read the tea leaves here.
If I’m the Giants, I’d be wary of all the sudden Wilson talk. If you plan to make a splash, it’s not a good thing that the media is whipping things up into a frenzy. It does nothing for your bargaining position and sets people up for disappointment if it doesn’t happen.
Let’s remember how the sausage is made in the NFL media world. I suspect Schefter is doing the Giants a solid here. His report yesterday lowers expectations and provides at least some minor bargaining power. I’m not sure anyone buys their faith in Daniel Jones — but that’s the line they have to stick to in negotiations.
It won’t be a major shock if Schefter gets a nice juicy Giants scoop down the line. It’s the way the NFL world turns.
Here’s the thing though — momentum is building and the Giants are more desperate than Sunday’s report implied.
As we’ve been discussing — John Mara the owner is under immense pressure. The Giants have now suffered five straight double-digit loss seasons. Mara is being booed at ceremonies to celebrate Eli Manning and Michael Strahan. The franchise has become a PR disaster.
They are the definition of a desperate team needing something — anything — to create positive headlines.
And while the team might want to play things down, here’s the New York Post’s back page today:
Inside the paper, Ian O’Connor wrote an article stating: ‘Giants should do everything they can to trade for Russell Wilson‘
Whatever your opinion of Wilson — he’s one of the biggest names in the NFL. At a time when both New York teams are proving to be utterly hopeless, the media are clamouring for a big name to cover.
They’re not going to be writing articles about how the Giants find value or whether Wilson’s finger injury will linger. They’re only going to want a big story to cover. They’ll focus on the positives — Wilson’s best form, what he’s capable of, what he could bring.
Furthermore, the Giants are one of the few teams with the draft stock to make a really tempting offer. I wrote on Christmas Eve about how fans who want a Wilson trade should root for the Jets and Texans. Both won yesterday. If this is the direction you wish to go in, hope for a top-four pick courtesy of the Giants (who need to leapfrog the Jets and Texans to get into that range). It’s the best shot to draft a potential blue-chip player.
And for what it’s worth — I think the Seahawks need to listen to what offers are out there for Wilson as soon as the season ends. My preference is for a Green Bay-style rebuild and I’ve made my case for that. I think my argument is logical, even if some disagree.
But I also accept that with each passing week, with each disappointing performance, it may well be best for Wilson and the Seahawks to both have a fresh start.
This can’t be a situation that drags on and on into the off-season. It would be wise for other teams to be alerted and be instructed to make their best offer before the end of January.
The Seahawks need to know what they’re planning for in 2022. They won’t receive that clarity until Wilson’s future is fully addressed.
Has his stock dipped based on the way he’s playing currently? Maybe. But let’s also note that Carson Wentz, clinging to one final chance to stick in the NFL, cost a first round pick. Sam Bradford cost multiple high picks over his bang average career. Matt Stafford, with none of Wilson’s back-catalogue, cost two first round picks.
Heck — even Jamal Adams cost two firsts and a third.
Desperate teams will make big offers. They will focus on what adding Wilson will mean. They’ll discuss the economic benefit as well as the football benefit.
And they’ll look at this quarterback draft class and see no obvious solutions. As much as this weak class is a motivation for certain teams entering the veteran market, it’s also a good bargaining chip for the Seahawks.
‘If you want our guy, you better compensate us for inheriting your situation’.
4. People need to be honest about Bobby Wagner
I’ve voiced concern about Wagner’s performances and, at times, his effort in games this season. I’ve also received some flack for that.
Yet it’s increasingly clear that we need to have a proper, serious conversation about Wagner and his future.
In the last two games he’s received a 46.8 grade against Chicago and a 37.0 grade against LA, per PFF. While he’s collecting a high number of tackles — no real context is being provided to whether this is actually a good thing or not.
With Jordyn Brooks third on the list too — it seems indicative of the way Seattle is playing, more than anything.
I’ve specifically watched Wagner in numerous games this year, using all-22 via GamePass. I’m not for a second saying it’s all bad. It isn’t. Wagner hasn’t turned into a useless player. Yet there are concerning trends that simply aren’t being talked about and for the cost and reputation of the player in question, I think a wider discussion is important.
Too often he is hesitant to make contact and appears passive. It’s unclear why. I think a classic example was last week against the Rams. He had an angle on the ball-carrier in space but seemed to stand and watch as Darrell Taylor came flying in from distance to make a crushing hit. I’ve seen him riding blocks downfield when defending screens. He’ll peak at ball-carriers when he has an open lane, refusing to engage blocks or go and attack the man with the ball.
At times you watch him and wonder what’s going on. Is he hurt? Nothing is ever reported by the team. He seems out of it at times, like he’s going through the motions.
It’s almost blasphemy in Seattle to criticise Wagner. He’s a legendary player who will likely be a future Hall of Famer. There’s every chance #54 will be retired in the future. He deserves to be remembered as one of the all-time great Seahawks.
Yet there’s simply no way they can justify his $20m cap hit next season. He’s practically untradable due to his contract so there’s no other choice but to cut him.
That has to happen and while so much attention is focused on Wilson’s contract, future and performances, it’s important to discuss Wagner too.
I’m afraid there’s no getting away from the reality that his play has really dropped off, he isn’t playing with anything like the intensity you might think and his contract cannot be justified.
It’s time to put Jordyn Brooks at the heart of the second level defense and shift Wagner’s massive salary to the trenches for 2022.
I spent the last off-season arguing that the Seahawks should trade Wagner and Adams and use the money saved to rebuild the lines. It wasn’t an opinion widely shared or encouraged.
Yet sitting here today, it’s exactly what should’ve happened.
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