This week Kenny and I discuss who the Seahawks will meet in the playoffs and Seattle’s issues with the running game.
In the conversation I make reference to this article by ESPN’s Chris Sprow, reviewing the biggest decision each team in the NFL faces during free agency.
The article suggests the Vikings have to decide on Adrian Peterson’s future at the end of the season because he’s due a bloated salary. If he’s released, should the Seahawks consider adding him to get some star power in the backfield? Would it help repair the running game in 2017?
Your leading rusher has 469 yards and was cut weeks ago.
You own the 22nd best running game in the NFL.
That is not Seahawks football.
This team is built on connections. The offense runs the ball and sets the tone, that in turns creates openings for explosive plays in the passing game. Dictating to the opponent on offense helps the defense play in ‘their style’, without needing to be overly exotic or creative week-to-week. If you can rush with four, it helps the coverage unit for obvious reasons. Everything is connected.
This year, one factor is completely absent and it’s probably why we’ve seen so many inconsistent aspects of the team overall.
They can’t run the ball.
In some cases, they refuse to.
First and foremost, this situation has to be addressed in the off-season. It’s the priority. Everything else can wait. The 2017 Seattle Seahawks have to be a better running team. Pure and simple.
When faced with such a glaring need in the past, they’ve been aggressive.
So what are some of the options?
Surely the O-line needs major work?
Yes, based on what we’ve seen in 2016. Yet here’s the conundrum facing the Seahawks. They clearly wanted to build a line that could grow together. For years they’ve faced annual changes — and consistency is so important for this unit.
Finally they had a young, athletic, big, explosive group. It’s also a cost-effective group. Ideally they would spend the next 3-4 years playing together, developing, improving. For now all they had to be was competent and not hurt the team.
Sadly, that’s not happened.
If anything they’re getting worse week by week. So what do you do? Show faith that they’ll come good over time, as per the original plan? Make a few extra additions in the draft and punt for competition being the key? Or do you see a rapidly closing Championship window and go bold, tear up the plan to develop your own players and try and find a quick fix?
There isn’t really an ideal solution.
Who is a keeper and who could be replaced?
Justin Britt has played well enough to keep his place at center but the other four spots could be up for grabs. George Fant has shown some potential given his incredible lack of football experience. Yet there’s nothing to suggest we’re seeing the early signs of a blossoming NFL career. Can you rely on Fant for the future? It’s hard to say you can.
Mark Glowinski hasn’t been great despite his redshirt season in 2015. Germain Ifedi has not shown signs of progression either. And the right tackle spot has to be addressed.
So who is young and just needs time and who isn’t good enough?
Good luck working that one out — because they probably aren’t going to be able to replace four players.
Invest in free agency
According to Spotrac, the Seahawks have an estimated $40m in free cap space for 2017. Assuming Michael Bennett and Kam Chancellor receive contract extensions, they probably won’t be able to spend all of that. But they’ll have enough for at least one, if not two, crucial acquisitions.
Give us some free agent names to monitor
Chance Warmack (G, Tennessee)
If you want to know how likely Warmack is to leave Tennessee, here’s an exert from a Q&A on the Titans official website. A fan asks Jim Wyatt about draft needs, asserting, “The O-line will need a Guard when they release Chance Warmack“. Wyatt’s response is merely to note, “As for Chance, his contract us up.”
Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were unique prospects in 2013. It’s not often you see pure college guards going in the top-10. Brandon Scherff, who ended up at guard for Washington as a top-five pick, played tackle at Iowa.
Few players have looked more of a sure thing than Warmack — a dominant force of nature at Alabama. His combination of size (6-2, 317lbs) and length (35 inch arms), matched up with his physical ability made for a very intriguing prospect. Mike Mayock considered him the best player in the 2013 draft. Todd McShay compared him to Steve Hutchinson.
He didn’t do many workouts at the combine but did manage a 9-2 in the broad jump.
Strangely, his NFL career has been quite middling.
It might be that he just isn’t all that good. In college his physical talent overwhelmed opponents but in the NFL, against the best of the best, he doesn’t stand out.
That said, whether it’s in Tennessee or somewhere else, someone is going to give him a second chance to deliver on his potential. And he might not be quite as expensive as the next man on the list.
Kevin Zeitler (G, Cincinnati)
The Bengals are notorious non-spenders in free agency. They pick and choose who they pay — so while Andy Dalton, Geno Atkins and A.J. Green have remained in Cincinnati, others have surprisingly moved on.
Whether they feel like a major investment is worthwhile at the guard spot remains to be seen. They’re a hard team to read. They’ll have approximately $8m more than Seattle’s estimated $40m to spend in 2017 so money isn’t an issue. Their unwillingness to splash it around might be.
This would be a powerplay move. Seattle’s biggest free agent acquisition since 2011 in terms of finances. Here are the top five highest paid guards in the NFL according to average salary:
Kelechi Osemele: $11.7m
David DeCastro: $10m
Kyle Long: $10m
Brandon Brooks: $8m
Mike Iupati: $8m
Osemele and Brooks were both free agents in 2016 and joined new teams. So you’re looking at a contract that fits somewhere between the two ($8-12m). Zeitler should be able to generate a deal worth $10m a year.
If the Seahawks signed him on that type of contract, only Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas would be earning more (unless Michael Bennett and/or Kam Chancellor top the $10m mark if/when they get new deals).
They can afford it, with nearly $40m to spend. But would they be willing to spend that much on a guard from another club?
On the one hand, Zeitler only turns 27 in March so he’s hitting his peak. The Seahawks paying for a player entering his prime isn’t unrealistic. He doesn’t, however, have a particularly stunning physical profile. His arm length is 32 3/4 inches (short). He didn’t top a 9-0 in the broad (8-5) or a 30 inch vertical (29 inches) at the combine. So is he just a gritty, talented player capable of playing for years — or will he hit a wall sooner than other players? I haven’t studied him enough to know the answer to that.
He will be the best O-liner on the market if he reaches free agency. The Seahawks, perhaps feeling like they need an injection of experienced talent there, could be aggressive. It could also create a scenario where they move Germain Ifedi to right tackle, possibly filling another need on the outside.
Ronald Leary (G, Dallas)
The Cowboys clearly wanted to push La’el Collins into a starting role, yet injuries put paid to that plan. Leary has filled in again on a restricted free agent contract and delivered.
The question is, how talented is Leary? Does he do a good job next to three first round picks, three of the best in the league (Smith, Martin and Frederick)? Or is he just as important to Dallas’ success up front?
Bryan: I agree with you about Ronald Leary and the way that he has played. I also agree with you about signing Zack Martin long-term, but I don’t see that with Leary — especially with La’el Collins waiting. They had a chance to re-sign Leary in the offseason to a deal and they didn’t do it — that tells me all that I needed to know about that situation. They are going to ride this out with Leary and work with Collins next season.
David: These are the limitations of the salary cap era. The Cowboys are likely going to be paying top dollar to Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin. Can they really afford to give another big-money contract to Ron Leary? I doubt it. Not with La’el Collins as a younger and cheaper option. Leary has been drastically underpaid since 2014, and he’s going to want to maximize his value this spring. I don’t blame him one bit, and I don’t think the Cowboys do either.
Leary was an undrafted free agent out of Memphis in 2012. The reason he wasn’t picked? It was discovered he had a degenerative left knee condition called osteochondritis dissecans. It could shorten his career — and for that reason he might not cash in during free agency. He might end up signing a shorter, more modest contract than Zeitler or Warmack.
He’s 6-3 and 320lbs and turns 28 at the end of April. Alex Boone, a free agent this year at the age of 29, signed a contract worth $6.7m a year on average with the Vikings. That could be the kind of range Leary is looking at as a free agent. J.R. Sweezy’s contract is worth $6.5m a year.
There’s more of a mystery to Leary (can he excel without the rest of Dallas’ O-line, how healthy is the knee?) so that could impact his value. Teams will look to mimic the Cowboys O-line given their record this year — so Leary could be in demand.
What about lower down the market?
The Seahawks have identified fits in the past, with mixed results. Breno Giacomini wasn’t a big name when he moved to Seattle but since he departed, it’s been a game of musical chairs at the position. Paul McQuistan was a reliable figure at guard or tackle. Yet the additions this year — Bradley Sowell and J’Marcus Webb — have not performed as well.
It stands to reason they might go shopping for a bargain veteran or two to add to the competition.
What about offensive tackles?
It’s hard to get excited about the free agent options. Matt Kalil has been a flop in Minnesota — but Pete Carroll recruited him and knows his game well. Detroit drafted Taylor Decker because they weren’t satisfied with Riley Reiff’s play at left tackle. Andrew Whitworth is playing well but he’s 35.
Sebastien Vollmer, it has been suggested, might retire at the end of the season. Menelik Watson could be an option as could another former team mate of Russell Wilson’s at Wisconsin — Baltimore’s Ricky Wagner. Watson and Wagner are both, however, the type of solid but unspectaular player you appreciate on a rookie contract. Are you willing to pay either millions as a free agent?
What about the draft?
The problem with relying on the draft is you’re just adding more inexperience to the line. And because the Seahawks can pick no lower than 21st overall, there’s a strong chance they won’t be able to pick a really talented player anyway.
Garett Bolles is the best bet. A player who will be 25 in May, has a supreme physical skill set and looks exceptional on tape. His nasty demeanour, talent, athleticism and attitude would be an ideal early pick for this team.
I suspect, unfortunately, he’ll end up going in the top-20 if he declares. A team like Denver, having missed out on the playoffs, would be a good landing spot for Bolles. He could end up rising into the top-10.
Ryan Ramcyzk is being highly touted by many and could also go early.
The options beyond round one are not unfavourable. At guard you’ve got Dorian Johnson, Dan Feeney, Forrest Lamp and Damien Mama. At tackle you’ve got Adam Bisnowaty, Chad Wheeler, Dion Dawkins and Taylor Moton — four players who could all kick inside too. I’m yet to watch Troy’s Antonio Garcia or Mississippi State’s Martinas Rankin — two players highly rated by Tony Pauline’s sources.
What might be the ideal situation?
A combination of draft and free agency.
Maybe you go for experience and try and make a couple of splashes? There is something appealing, I suppose, about the idea of two of Russell Wilson’s college linemen rejoining him in Seattle (Zeitler and Wagner). If you can follow that up by drafting someone like Garett Bolles — the line would be getting two proven veterans and college football’s best offensive tackle. It just seems increasingly unlikely that Bolles will be available for Seattle.
If they believe in Fant or if Bolles isn’t there, it could be a case of adding some competition in the third round range (Wheeler? Bisnowaty?). That would enable them to look at other positions in round one — such as D-line or…
What about running back?
This is a difficult one — and a topic that will divide opinion between fans. In the last 12 months both Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise have been dynamic, exciting… and injured. You don’t want to give up on either or write them off. Yet you equally want more from the position.
The Seahawks offense has never had a dominant O-line during the Russell Wilson era. They have had a dominant running game though. We all knew life after Marshawn Lynch would be difficult. It still feels like they’re trying to work out the plan moving forward.
Unfortunately they might never be able to rely on Rawls and Prosise to carry the load. You might need to limit their snaps, manage their workloads and keep them healthy. They can still have a vital role on the offense — but do they need a bell cow runner in 2017?
Probably.
Finding a great running back isn’t easy. There aren’t many in the league — and it’s quite an unpredictable position overall. For every Zeke Elliott there’s a Trent Richardson. Yet the top five backs in 2016 were all taken between rounds 1-3:
Ezekiel Elliott — round one
Le’Veon Bell — round two
DeMarco Murray — round three
LeSean McCoy — round two
David Johnson — round three
Melvin Gordon was on pace to be among this group too before his injury — he was also a first round pick.
Plus Marshawn Lynch, the man they’ve had to replace, is a former #12 overall pick. And let’s not forget Adrian Peterson either, a #7 overall pick back in the day.
The Seahawks probably need to keep adding talent until they find a guy they can lean on. And that means considering another pick in the first three rounds at this position.
And the options are…?
Several backs aren’t turning pro, including Royce Freeman, Elijah Hood and Nick Chubb. It’s cut the depth overall and could bump other players up a round.
Clearly the top two are Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. I can imagine the Seahawks liking both. Fournette for his unreal combination of physicality, size, athleticism and attitude. He’s pretty much the ideal back for this situation in Seattle. Cook is more of a Jamaal Charles type but he’s an explosive playmaker.
Both will probably be out of reach. Yet if the Seahawks want to be bold and aggressive, who knows? Certainly if they end up picking 21st or 22nd it’d be easier to pull off an Atlanta/Julio Jones type move compared to picking between #29-32.
D’Onta Foreman could go in round one or he could go in round three. I’m still undecided on how good he is. Foreman’s ability to run away from defenders or bounce runs outside and explode is impressive for his size. His combine performance will be fascinating. Yet he doesn’t necessarily make the most of his size either. He’s not a monster like Fournette.
Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful player to watch. An exciting playmaker. But is he the type of back Seattle needs right now?
Samaje Perine is a good athlete for his size. He’s better than D’Onta Foreman running up the middle but Foreman is better at turning the corner and bouncing outside. Perine’s awful with the media, he’s constantly in a bad mood. Some people will like that. He could be an option in rounds two or three.
Boise State’s Jeremy McNichols and BYU’s Jamaal Williams could be two names to watch. There are others too — but these are the players perhaps most likely to go in the first three rounds.
Le’Veon Bell will likely stay in Pittsburgh one way or another — possibly on the franchise tag. Yet at the moment he is set to be a free agent and would interest a ton of teams.
Eddie Lacy has health and weight issues — but he too will be a free agent.
Will New Orleans consider dealing Mark Ingram? Or Carolina Jonathan Stewart?
There aren’t many appealing big names likely to be on the trade block, unlike last year with Murray. And unless Bell somehow reaches the market — all signs point to the draft for the Seahawks.
How important is this?
This a team that puts such a focus on the run game being integral to their identity. It is more important to them than it is to a lot of other teams. Settling just isn’t an option, especially with the meagre production in 2016.
Whatever happens during the rest of this season — this feels like an area they will focus on hard during the off-season. O-line, running back. They cannot have a repeat of this year.
In the last two years, Jeremy McNichols has exactly 3000 rushing yards and 43 rushing touchdowns. He also added 910 receiving yards and another 10 scores.
That’s some college career.
He’s listed as 5-9 and 212lbs but he plays tough. There are some similarities to the guys he replaced at Boise State — Jay Ajayi and Doug Martin.
Tony Pauline ranks him as a third round prospect. He might go a little earlier following the news Nick Chubb and Elijah Hood will be returning to Georgia and North Carolina respectively. Pauline notes, however, “Opinions on McNichols are mixed. While we presently grade him as a third round prospect some scouts believe he’s more of a fourth or fifth rounder.”
This season has been one of growth for McNichols, who was open in the offseason about all the areas in which he wanted to improve. He discussed running smarter to avoid injury and has not missed a game. He wanted to improve as a blocker, so he has sat in on film study sessions with the offensive line. He aimed to gain good weight and added about 10 pounds, enabling him to break tackles while still breaking big runs.
McNichols and Boise State play Baylor in the Cactus Bowl tomorrow.
Take a look for yourself in the video above. He’s a name to monitor with the Seahawks likely to add a running back at some point during the off-season.
Merry Christmas to everyone. For those needing something to read to enable them to move on from the Arizona game, I hope this helps.
Even playing as poorly as they have been recently, the chance to get the #2 seed offered some cause for optimism for Seahawks fans.
That situation has changed massively in light of the Arizona game.
Just look at the difference between the two scenarios:
By claiming the #2 seed…
— Win one home game against a wildcard opponent
— Play the NFC Championship game possibly in Seattle (depending on Dallas’ result)
By settling for the #3 or #4 seed…
— Win one home against a wildcard opponent
— Go on the road against the #1 or #2 seed
— Go on the road in the NFC Championship game
It wasn’t beyond the realms of possibility that even this disjointed version of the Seahawks with so many injuries and issues could win one home game and pull off a win in the NFC Championship game.
Are they capable of winning two road playoff games, after negotiating the wildcard weekend?
So far they’re 0-4-1 on the road in the NFC and in the last five weeks they’re 2-3, including their worst defeat in five years.
There’s no point in giving up on the season completely. This is a weird year in the NFL. On Christmas Eve, Oakland fans woke up dreaming of the Super Bowl. On Christmas Day, they were grieving for their quarterback’s broken leg.
The Tennessee Titans, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, started Christmas Eve with a great chance to make the post season. By Christmas day, that wasn’t possible and their bright, young franchise quarterback also has a broken leg.
The 9-7 Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011 in a year that included a four-game losing streak between weeks 10-13. In week 15 they were well beaten at home by a 5-11 Washington team 23-10.
They got hot at the right time. If you want a reason to believe Seattle still has a chance, there’s your ammunition.
Yet it still feels unlikely, or perhaps more pertinently, it needs to be seen to be believed. We’re at week 16 and there’s no signs of improvement on the O-line. The glass cannon theory rings truer than ever. The defense is streaky and missing a generational safety.
And it means, sadly, there’s little cause for optimism.
This is one of the key issues:
Russell Wilson games of 30+ pass attempts by season (including playoffs):
An offense that was at its best based on ball control, physicality and putting the team in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter is now highly dependant on the passing game.
Seattle’s offense between 2012 and 2014 could be defined as conservative plus. They often played for field position. A punt was not their enemy. Yet this was offset by the most creative point guard quarterback we’ll ever see and a punishing ground game.
The Seahawks were explosive and modest in equal measure. And with a stern defense, it was a classic winning combination.
In the last two seasons, that has completely changed. They’re more like every other team in the league with a franchise quarterback. They throw to try and win. Except unlike a lot of other teams, this is a much more volatile proposition.
I’m going to reference the glass cannon again. When things work, this offense is extremely entertaining and prolific. The collection of talent — Wilson, Graham, Baldwin, Lockett — is ideal for an explosive, attacking passing game. Yet because the O-line and running game is so poor, it’s been boom or bust all year.
The cannon can fire away with reckless abandon but one chip or chink and it cracks.
Teams know the Seahawks will abandon the running game if they get behind. And they get behind because teams also know they can sell out defending the pass, attacking the O-line to rush the passer without worrying about putting eight in the box.
Opponents appear to be saying, ‘we’re prepared to give up yards in the running game because we don’t think you can sustain that side of your offense — plus you’ll give it up if things get rough’.
If the Seahawks are going to get back to being a serious contender, this has to be addressed. They’ve regressed from a consistent top-five running offense to a team currently ranked #21 in the NFL (and they could fall further down the list depending on what happens in the remaining games over Christmas).
This was an interesting Tweet by ESPN’s Josina Anderson today…
2017 #NFL Free Agency is going to be way more interesting than 2016, especially from the things I'm hearing early. Adversity brings change.
Perhaps it’s Josina’s profile picture — a selfie with Ciara — that makes me wonder if she’s talking at least partly about the Seahawks here.
This is a team that was built aggressively. Multiple roster moves. Big trades. Hosting players like Brandon Marshall on a seaplane. Star names, big splashes.
When they lost that Super Bowl, they traded for Jimmy Graham a few weeks later.
Facing an identity crisis on offense and a clear, festering problem that is an absent running game and a poorly performing offensive line — the idea that the Seahawks will cross their fingers and hope for the best seems unrealistic.
In discussing free agency, Josina Anderson references adversity. That’s what the Seahawks are facing right now. “Adversity brings change“.
She might as well have added the teams hashtag: #weare12
The Seahawks have money to spend. Not as much as some others, but there’s some room. Do they go after someone like Ron Leary? Or Chance Warmack? Or Kevin Zeitler? Or Riley Reiff? That’s just four names to start with.
Will they find a way to make a creative trade as we’ve seen them do in the past?
Will Le’Veon Bell test free agency? It seems doubtful but right now he hasn’t got a contract for 2017.
Or will the Seahawks focus on another area of need — interior pass rush — and make a play for Calais Campbell or Kawann Short or Dontari Poe?
They haven’t really made splashes in free agency since 2013. They haven’t paid big money since 2011. This has a feel of 2011 to it — trying to establish something. Trying to get things going.
They might be aggressive in the draft too. Whether it’s getting after someone like Garett Bolles to provide an injection of talent at tackle, one of the better interior D-line disruptors or a stud running back. Being aggressive doesn’t necessarily mean trading up — but it’s an option. Picking later in the first round hasn’t provided the Seahawks with a great draft pick in the Carroll/Scheider era. It feels like this team needs a spark, on top of a few solid acquisitions.
They might even trade their #1 or #2 pick for a veteran. They’ve done it before.
Either way, this is the absolute three crucial priorities:
— Repair the broken running game
— Improve the O-line
— Improve the interior pass rush
The good news is, they won’t need to focus too much on the safety position:
That was a nice little pre-Christmas pick-me-up after the Arizona game. Earl will be back. Probably more amped than ever before. They can focus on trying to acquire someone like Shalom Luani possibly in the middle rounds, instead of needing to go after one of the top safety’s in round one.
Here’s a silver lining to focus on for now. If this team doesn’t find a spark to go on a great playoff run — we might be just a few weeks away from the most interesting Seahawks off-season in a long time.
The Seahawks were certainly in a festive mood today.
Atlanta and Detroit, Merry Christmas.
With two wins against slumping opponents, the #2 seed would be Seattle’s. First round bye, home game in the divisional round.
Now they’re left hoping the Saints upset the Falcons in Atlanta (not likely) and the Cowboys defeat the Lions on Boxing Day.
It’s tempting to say it doesn’t really matter. The Seahawks are not playing well. Do they deserve the #2 seed? Over someone like Atlanta or Detroit?
You don’t need me to tell you the answer.
Two straight forward wins against Carolina and Los Angeles — both mired in dysfunction — didn’t mask anything. The defeats in Tampa Bay and Green Bay were ugly and this was a home clunker.
This latest loss was arguably more galling than the ones in Green Bay or Tampa Bay. Seattle wasn’t facing an in-form opponent, red hot and making a run. They were at home. They controlled the #2 seed and just had to handle their business. And the rally at the end made for an unlikely slice of Christmas agony when Arizona marched downfield to kick a game winning field goal.
All three units played poorly at various times. The offense didn’t function in the first half, largely due to the struggling O-line. Quick passes, read-option, running the ball, play action. They tried everything and nothing worked. The early turnover by Marcel Reece led to seven crucial points. The late, desperate comeback shouldn’t gloss over how inept the offense was in the first half.
There shouldn’t be any grandstanding from Richard Sherman this week. The defense gave up the last minute drive to lose the game. They conceded 34 points overall and had the four-play touchdown drive straight after a Seattle score made it a three-point game. The pass rush continues to be streaky and it often feels like they can’t create pressure without blitzing the two linebackers. That’s despite having Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Frank Clark on the field.
The special teams had another miserable day. A blocked kick, a blocked punt and a missed extra point. The two missed kicks cost four points — inevitably crucial given the margin of victory for Arizona. On the missed PAT the snap was slightly high and there was pressure off the edge. You still expect the kicker to make it. Questions have to be asked about Steven Hauschka given his disappointing season in a contract year and the decision to change long snappers.
The game also highlighted Seattle’s three consistent problems:
1. The offensive line is not good enough. There are probably reasons for that — three of the five are starting for the first time this year, Justin Britt is a first year center and there’s a game of musical chairs at right tackle. But it was impossible for the offense to function in the first half with the way this O-line played. It’s hard to imagine this is a situation that will be improved by yet more inexperience (aka rookies) in 2017. You want to believe this unit will grow over time but it’s hard to invest faith in that happening after today.
2. They can’t run the ball how they want to and they know it. They came out throwing again today because they can’t establish the run. They’ve become thoroughly one dimensional and the old glass cannon theory was accurate once more today. Impact the pass and this offense shatters into pieces. They’re relying on a passing game and can’t pass protect. It’s not a good combination. Plus Thomas Rawls picked up his latest injury today (shoulder) and you have to ask — is he ever going to be able to stay healthy?
3. The Cardinals O-line has struggled for weeks, it’s banged up. The Seahawks didn’t exploit it at all. Arizona on the other hand had Seattle’s O-line for dinner. It’s a truly confusing and baffling situation given the talent in Seattle’s front seven. Why do they so infrequently smother opponents with pressure? Why are they so often dependant on the blitz?
You can list other things too — but I focus on these three because they’re consistent. And they generally lead to other problems such as red zone woes, backup defensive backs getting burned for 80-yard scores, Russell Wilson missing throws he’s made for years and Jimmy Graham being a non-factor.
This loss also didn’t just cost the Seahawks a straight path to the #2 seed, they also blew the opportunity to go unbeaten at home in the regular season.
The Seahawks will be in the playoffs as the NFC West winners but sadly there aren’t many reasons to believe this will be a Championship season. It’s not unheard of for a team to stumble into the post season and catch fire. Yet it feels like there’s just too much work to do and not enough time to do it.
This team needs an off-season to try and get right and get healthy. Unfortunately that might come sooner rather than later.
I’ll end with this — some things are more important than football, like enjoying time with family and friends and having a nice Christmas. Try not to let this game ruin your holiday, enjoy yourself and I’ll see you in a few days.
This week I give Kenny my views on where the Seahawks are at right now, the Sherman drama, some thoughts on possibly the most intriguing safety in the draft class and Leonard Fournette & Christian McCaffrey skipping their Bowl games.
1. I had the Seahawks trading out of the first round. They don’t own a fourth or fifth round pick, so such a scenario to acquire a day three selection is very possible.
2. You’ll notice I didn’t actually put the Seahawks with a prospect. There’s a reason for that, explained below.
3. I’m not entirely satisfied with the mock draft — but that’s testament to the quality of the players. I wanted to get the two Ohio State cornerbacks (Lattimore and Conley) into round one. I wanted to get Justin Evans into the first frame. I wanted to put Derek Barnett higher than #32. I couldn’t find a way this time — and that highlights how interesting this draft class is.
So why no pick for the Seahawks? I’m battling with the direction they could go and rather than offer an opinion, I want yours.
Let me offer some scenarios:
Repair the running game
Is the big need here to make sure the running game is back to normal (by the Seahawks standards) in 2017? It certainly feels like teams are treating the offense differently these days. Less eight-man boxes, less focus on stopping the run. More pass rush. More feeling that if you stop Russell Wilson you can give the Seahawks a major offensive headache.
Do they spend their first pick on a physical, tone-setting runner to compliment what they already have? Do they force teams to focus on the man in the backfield? Is that what’s missing? That Marshawn Lynch fear factor? That punishing inside runner?
Is someone like D’Onta Foreman the answer or is it about further additions to the O-line? Bolles and Ramcyzk are off the board in this mock. Cam Robinson, to quote Bob McGinn’s source, is “talented but he gets lazy.” Is that a Seahawks O-liner?
Is this a situation that can be addressed later on? Are you prepared to wait for a Chad Wheeler, Adam Bisnowaty type in the middle rounds and a running back like James Conner or Samaje Perine?
That might make sense in terms of value — but if it doesn’t have the desired effect and the offense looks the same in 2017, will you rue not making a bigger splash?
Find another defensive tackle or inside/out rusher
This mock assumes Vita Vea won’t declare. Elijah Qualls could be an option if he does turn pro. Derrick Nnadi, Chris Wormley, Caleb Brantley, Dalvin Tomlinson and others are still on the board.
The Seahawks certainly lack an interior impacter. Someone who makes life easier for the EDGE guys and can move or impact the QB without necessarily racking up 10 sacks. Someone equally capable of being stout vs the run and holding a double team.
For a while they’ve needed a classic three-technique but it might be difficult to find in this class. They’ve missed the 2013 and 2014 production of Clinton McDonald and Jordan Hill (6.5 sacks each). Filling that void would certainly help the defense get back to its best. Some will argue it’s Seattle’s biggest need.
It might also be tough to find a really good inside/out rusher with a lot of the better options off the board in this mock.
Yet the defense is still #2 in points conceded and they have a shot to be #1 in that category for an unprecedented fifth year in a row. If it wasn’t for the Green Bay meltdown they’d virtually have the title in the bag. And let’s not forget — that nightmare in Lambeau was inspired by a six-turnover performance on offense. Is the defense good enough to think much of the focus should be on the other side of the ball?
With cap room to spend in 2017 this could be an area they look at in free agency. The Seahawks have a better record for finding veteran D-liners than they do drafting them. And yet along with safety and cornerback — D-line is probably the strength of the 2017 draft class.
The addition of John Jenkins was an intriguing one, especially with Pete Carroll referencing the need to find more interior pass rush when he signed his contract. Are they looking for a massive big man who also provides some disruption? This class is rich in players like that. If they could get anywhere near Vita Vea they’d probably be all over it. They might settle for Qualls or Greg Gaines if they declare. There are plenty of alternatives too.
On a side note I think they’ll really like this Husky team. Pettis, Ross, Mathis, the trio of D-liners, Jones, Baker, Coleman. Plus Shalom Luani at Washington State (more on him in a moment). The local guys might stick around.
Take a safety
Obi Melifonwu is pretty unique. His size, range, athleticism and upside are ridiculous. There isn’t really anyone like him. That will appeal to a lot of teams including the Seahawks. He also might be a bit of a luxury that doesn’t really address the pressing issues on this team.
Justin Evans is a hard-hitting, fun to watch safety. He’s not close to being as rangy as Earl though. He’s still a really good player.
Budda Baker is the guy I think you can make the best case for in this scenario but he’s off the board. Earl Thomas’ threat to retire makes this a talking point. Assuming he comes back, taking a safety early seems a long shot. Especially with players like Shalom Luani possibly available later. And it’s worth noting — Kris Richard and Richard Sherman both stated in the last 24 hours they fully expect Thomas to continue playing.
Luani is a really intriguing player. There is a little bit of Troy Polamalu to his game. Depending on how he performs at the combine — don’t be surprised if he starts to fly up many boards. If he’s around in rounds 2-3 for the Seahawks, he could be someone they take a long look at. He might sneak into the top-40.
Make a big splash
Maybe it’s time for Seattle to trade up to add another star on a reasonable contract? Doesn’t it feel like they need a boost? Are they going to get that picking in the same areas as the last four drafts?
Jalen Ramsey, the #5 pick this year, has a cap hit of $7.4m in 2019. That’s the final year of his deal. If you move up for a top prospect you can get fantastic value. And maybe, just maybe, it’s time for this team to consider adding another impact player? Making another bold move?
Leonard Fournette? Jonathan Allen?
The risk is clear — if the player doesn’t work out, the investment is so rich it can set a franchise back considerably. Yet the Seahawks already have a good team. They survived the Percy Harvin bust. Even in this muddled, confusing 2016 season they’re on track to be the NFC’s #2 seed. They are seemingly better placed than most teams to make a splash. And if it worked — it could be the thing that puts them over the top again.
I’ve never thought the Seahawks trading up was remotely likely in previous drafts. It’s still unlikely and would require a team being willing to cut a deal. But for the first time since 2008 — I think it’s at least worth discussing as an option.
Yes it could be an expensive gamble. Yet an expected third round compensatory pick in 2017 would mean the Seahawks would still pick three times in the first three rounds if they trade up and spend their second round pick as well as a future first rounder plus change.
The price tag might just be too rich. And that means collecting talent in the way they’ve done in the previous two drafts. If they were able to get an interior disruptor on defense, some safety help such as Luani, another talented running back and a right tackle — they would feel good about their situation. Plus they have the money to go and make at least one significant move in free agency.
But just imagine having another stud like Fournette in that backfield, or someone like Allen rushing inside. Maybe it’s best not to think about how cool that would be.
So what do you think? Let me know in the comments section.
It’s unnerving that two weeks on from his broken leg, Earl Thomas is still seemingly in a state of flux. Will he retire? It seems like that heat of the moment Tweet wasn’t so heat of the moment. He’s serious. And if he does come back, who knows how long for?
Faced with the thought of never playing with his team mates again, most of us will simply assume he’ll continue his career once recovered. Richard Sherman noted in his press conference today that he doesn’t think Thomas will retire. The front office though have to plan and prepare. Which isn’t easy to do. Free safety, and Thomas specifically, are so important to the Seahawks defensive scheme.
If he continues playing, it’s a non-issue. If he retires, this arguably becomes the #1 need on the team.
Ideally they’d know one way or another by the end of the season. But what if Earl isn’t ready to make a decision in March? Or April? Or May?
The good news is it’s a strong safety class. The defensive backs, plus defensive linemen, appear to be the strength of the 2017 draft.
USC’s Adoree’ Jackson could move from cornerback to safety, ditto Iowa’s Desmond King. Florida’s Marcus Maye is another well rounded safety. One other name to monitor is Washington State’s Shalom Luani. Let’s not forget, nobody really knew about Deone Bucannon until the combine. Luani is physical, athletic, has the gritty background the Seahawks love, he’s rangy and versatile. If he performs well during the off-season, don’t be shocked if he goes a lot earlier than people are currently projecting.
The Seahawks would want someone with great range and playmaking skills. Of the group above Hooker, Baker, Jackson and Luani are most likely to fill that need. Don’t sleep on Melifonwu though — he’s a bigger safety but could be the star of the combine as we discussed in this piece a month ago.
The two other positions rich in depth in 2017 are cornerback and defensive line. The following could land in round one:
Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
Jalen Tabor (CB, Florida)
Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
Marshon Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
Gareon Conley (CB, Ohio State)
Myles Garrett (EDGE, Texas A&M)
Jonathan Allen (DE, Alabama)
Takkarist McKinley (DE, UCLA)
Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
Carl Lawson (EDGE, Auburn)
Malik McDowell (DE, Michigan State)
Demarcus Walker (DE, Florida State)
Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
These are just a few of the names too. The Seahawks, if they’re after a more disruptive presence in the middle, will have options beyond their first pick. Alabama’s Dalvin Tomlinson, Michigan’s Chris Wormley, Iowa’s Jaleel Johnson and Utah’s Lowell Loutlelei make this a good draft to try and address one of Seattle’s other needs.
One of the players they might show a lot of interest in is Washington’s Elijah Qualls. I spent some time yesterday watching Washington’s D-line. It’s obvious why teams are supposedly so high on Vita Vea (enough, according to Tony Pauline, to consider him in the top-half of round one). He’s 6-5 and 332lbs, mobile and athletic. He can play nose tackle but he’s not just a space-eater. If the Seahawks wanted a disruptive big man inside, Vea might be an ideal prospect for that role.
Yet watching the Huskies, I was still as equally impressed with Qualls and Greg Gaines. They don’t have the size and length of Vea (Qualls is 6-1 and 321lbs, Gaines is 6-2 and 318lbs) but they’re still very disruptive. They’ve combined for 13 TFL’s in 2016 and it’s easy to see why. Qualls, especially against Oregon, was a superior pass rushing threat than Vea. Gaines flashes rare burst for a man his size and has some nice hand technique to swim, explode and finish. His arm length might be an issue at the next level but his skill set and quickness won’t be.
Qualls’ attitude and background are also interesting. For example:
The big difference between Qualls and Vea is the upside and measurables. Qualls’ ceiling isn’t as high. Vea could be Haloti Ngata. Qualls doesn’t have that profile but he’s big and physical and disruptive and could be available in round two. Vea, if he turns pro, could go top-15.
This is a really talented Husky team playing in the Seahawks backyard. There’s a reason they’re #4 in the country with an opportunity to play Alabama. They are really, really good. It just feels destined that the local pro team is going to tap into the talent pool. You can imagine John Ross at receiver in Seattle or Budda Baker at safety. Joe Mathis playing the edge? Sounds good to me. Dante Pettis in the later rounds? You can imagine it.
But that D-line trio perfectly fit what the Seahawks need. The signing of John Jenkins was a nod to that. Size + disruption + TFL’s. It’s unlikely they’re going to get that ultra-quick three-technique this year. And while there will be alternatives (eg Derrick Nnadi) it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if they took a long look at someone like Qualls.
There are still other positions with interesting prospects too. Garett Bolles at Utah as a possible right tackle option, there’s a collection of running backs and some interesting linebackers like Zach Cunningham.
The last guy the Seahawks drafted early in the draft
The Seahawks haven’t had an early pick since 2012, when they selected Bruce Irvin at #15. They’ve since consistently picked later in the draft than any other contender over the last five years.
Why is this is noteworthy? I’m glad you asked…
We’re currently experiencing the greatest example of parity in the NFL. The 2016 season is a jumbled mess of flawed teams. For the first time in a good few years there isn’t an elite three or four. Any team making the playoffs probably has a shot to make the Super Bowl.
The defense ranked #1 vs the run in 2015. They’re down to #8 in 2016. Offensively they were #3 in the run game last year but they’re only #18 this season.
Seattle’s turnover differential is -1 this season. It was +6 in 2015 and +9 in 2014.
The defense also needs three interceptions in the last two games to match 2015’s total of 14.
They’re virtually down across the board apart from sacks and points conceded. They have 36 sacks this year and should be able to surpass 2015’s 37 in the next two games. The Seahawks have the #2 scoring defense, having given up just two more points than #1 New England.
Staying at the top is difficult and most teams, even the regular contenders, fall back into the pack. Seattle’s consistent run of winning since 2012 — especially within a very competitive division up until this season — is only matched by two teams (the Patriots and Broncos).
The silver lining of a down year or two is the ability to pick earlier in the draft and add a core player to your group. An injection of pure talent. The Giants, having been competitive for several years and winning two Super Bowls, fell back in 2013 and that allowed them to select Odell Beckham Jr.
Other teams that have contended over the last five seasons are peaking now after several years of picking early. Carolina selected Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Star Lotulelei in consecutive years before having their charge to the Super Bowl. Atlanta reloaded with three picks in the top-17 over the last three years. They currently have as many wins as the Seahawks this season.
Seattle’s consistency in terms of winning has somewhat hurt them in the talent acquisition stakes. They’ve not had a top-20 pick to get things going again. Most teams only give out 10-20 first round grades in a given draft. The Seahawks haven’t been able to get near those players.
While they have in the past found gems in the middle or later rounds — that’s a very difficult thing to maintain over multiple years.
They’ve somewhat tried to compensate for this by making big trades for star players like Jimmy Graham and Percy Harvin, with mixed results.
Nothing, however, can replace the cheap quality you get if you nail an early pick. And that’s something the Seahawks haven’t been able to do — and it’s perhaps one of the reasons why they’ve not been able to continue just loading up on talent after a historically great run of recruitment between 2010-2012.
Eleven teams have competed in a NFC or AFC Championship game in the last five years. Here is the average draft position of each teams first pick since 2011:
New York Giants — 16.8
Arizona Cardinals — 17.5
Carolina Panthers — 17.8
San Francisco 49ers — 18.1
Atlanta Falcons — 19.0
Baltimore Ravens — 23.8
Denver Broncos — 24.3
Indianapolis Colts — 25.5
Green Bay Packers — 27.3
New England Patriots — 35.1
Seattle Seahawks — 40.1
So over the last few years, on average the Seahawks are making their first pick nearly 25 spots lower than division rivals Arizona, 21 picks lower than the Falcons and even 13 places lower than Green Bay.
This is arguably one of the reasons why they’ve struggled to match the 2010-12 draft success in 2013-16. The later round gems have dried up, possibly because other teams are now looking to mimic Seattle’s approach and are taking ‘Seahawky’ players earlier. Overall they’re picking much later than any other team not named New England.
That’s also possibly why they’ve been creative. It’s probably why they’ve made trades, it’s probably why they’re looking for deliberate traits and specific physical profiles. If you’re picking later and want to try and find great players — getting upside and trying to develop it is probably your best shot. Otherwise you’re just not getting close enough to the genuine talent in the top-15 or so picks.
If the Seahawks can get back to their best over the next couple of years without picking in the top-20, it’ll be a triumph and arguably an unprecedented achievement in a league determined to achieve parity. That’s what the record tells us. It’s how a team as well run as Baltimore goes from winning a Super Bowl and consistently picking in the 20’s or 30’s to suddenly being at #17 and taking C.J. Mosley or #6 and Ronnie Stanley.
It might also suggest the Seahawks will continue to be creative to get around this. More trades? Maybe, if the cap space allows for it. Would they trade up the board, ala Atlanta in 2011 for Julio Jones? Another possibility. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility they’ll think they need the spark of a top prospect to reinvigorate things.
Failing that, continuing to look for unique traits with the upside to develop into greatness seems likely. And it might be that way while ever they’re unable to pick the best fruit at the top of the tree.
1. The Seahawks might want more DL size Speaking to Brock and Salk this morning, Pete Carroll made reference to Seattle’s D-line: “We’re not very big, we’re just fast and really really athletic and it showed up last night.”
It’s pretty obvious, given the personnel moves the Seahawks have made over the years, that they love twitchy, fast pass rushers. It’d be wrong to think they’re suddenly going to deviate from that.
However, the recent addition of 359lbs John Jenkins was maybe a sign that they do want some extra bulk in the middle. Interestingly, when Jenkins was signed Carroll talked about boosting the interior rush.
When it comes to the off-season, it’s at least worth considering players with a big frame that are also disruptive. That could mean the Seahawks show interest in the Washington D-liners if they enter the draft:
The Seahawks don’t need a 10-sack monster inside. They really just need to replace the 6.5 sacks collected by Clinton McDonald in 2013 and Jordan Hill in 2014. If not in terms of pure numbers — at least in terms of pressures.
It’s why it might also be worth repeating that Dontari Poe is a pending free agent and Kansas City are in a bit of a difficult cap situation in 2017. With only around $4m to spend at the moment they’ll need to create room to re-sign Eric Berry. It could mean Poe hits the market. He’d provide a nice compliment of size and athleticism. At his combine in 2012 he ran a 4.98 at 346lbs.
Melton was initially a running back at Texas before converting to defensive tackle. At the Longhorns pro-day in 2009 he ran a 4.64 at 6-3 and 269lbs with a 34.5 inch vertical and a 10-1 broad jump. It was an incredible performance.
At the 2014 combine, Aaron Donald posted a 4.68 forty at 6-1 and 285lbs. He had a 32 inch vertical and a 9-8 in the broad jump. His 10-yard split was a 1.59.
Both players are rare — but by the sound of Carroll’s enthusiasm and the specific reference to Melton when discussing Donald — it’s worth keeping an eye on any players (early round, late round or UDFA) that post a 4.6 forty in that 270-285lbs range.
Unfortunately, there aren’t many out there.
In 2016 only three defensive lineman ran under 4.7 at the combine — Charles Tapper, Emmanuel Ogbah and Kamalei Correa. Two managed it in 2015 — Danielle Hunter and Owamagbe Odighizuwa. None of these players are interior rushers.
In 2014 four D-liners ran under 4.7 but only two possible interior rushers — Jadeveon Clowney (the #1 overall pick) and Aaron Donald.
There’s probably some flexibility here. For example, given the opportunity to draft someone with Cameron Jordan’s physical profile (6-4, 287lbs, 35 inch arms, 4.74 forty, 1.64 split, 31 inch vertical, 9-9 broad) they’d probably seriously consider it.
There’s a nice collection of defensive linemen in this upcoming draft. It’ll be interesting to see if any fit this kind of physical profile. Length, probably a 4.6 or 4.7, 275-290lbs and preferably good results in the explosion tests and 10-yard split. Quickness might be the key though.
Michigan’s Taco Charlton is listed at 6-5 and 277lbs. He has some nice length. He could be someone to watch at the combine. UCLA’s Takk McKinley would be another — but he appears destined for the top-15.
At the 2013 Nike SPARQ combine Stanford’s Solomon Thomas actually had a good workout overall. Yet he posted a 4.95 forty at 261lbs. He’s now listed at 273lbs. Some aspects of his game are appealing — but he might not be quick enough.
