Here’s an open thread for your predictions and thoughts on the two games today: Oakland @ Houston and Detroit @ Seattle.
Author: Rob Staton (Page 234 of 424)
Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.
Below you’ll find an updated two-round mock draft. One thing we like to do every year is look at other high profile projections and assess the options available to Seattle.
Today we’ll look at Tony Pauline’s first 2017 mock.
Rob’s projection
Round One
#1 Cleveland — Myles Garrett (EDGE, Texas A&M)
#2 San Francisco — Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
#3 Chicago — Jonathan Allen (DE, Alabama)
#4 Jacksonville — Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
#5 Tennessee — Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
#6 New York Jets — Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
#7 San Diego — Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
#8 Carolina — Garett Bolles (T, Utah)
#9 Cincinnati — Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State)
#10 Buffalo — Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
#11 New Orleans — Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
#12 Cleveland (via Philadelphia) — Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
#13 Arizona — Ryan Ramcyzk (T, Wisconsin)
#14 Indianapolis — Tim Williams (EDGE, Alabama)
#15 Philadelphia (via Minnesota) — Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)
#16 Baltimore — Takkarist McKinley (EDGE, UCLA)
#17 Washington — Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
#18 Tennessee — O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
#19 Tampa Bay — Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
#20 Denver — John Ross (WR, Washington)
#21 Detroit — Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
#22 Miami — Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
#23 New York Giants — Demarcus Walker (DE, Florida State)
#24 Oakland — Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
#25 Houston — Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
#26 Seattle — David Njoku (TE, Miami)
#27 Green Bay — Gareon Conley (CB, Ohio State)
#28 Pittsburgh — Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson)
#29 Atlanta — Budda Baker (S, Washington)
#30 Kansas City — Deshone Kizer (QB, Notre Dame)
#31 Dallas — Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
#32 New England — Chidobe Awuzie (CB, Colorado)
Round two
33. Cleveland — Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)
34. San Francisco — Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)
35. Jacksonville — Cam Robinson (T, Alabama)
36. Chicago — Patrick Mahomes (QB, Texas Tech)
37. Los Angeles — Antonio Garcia (T, Troy)
38. San Diego — Malik McDowell (DT, Michigan State)
39. New York Jets — Jalen Tabor (CB, Florida)
40. Carolina — Justin Evans (S, Texas A&M)
41. Cincinnati — Carl Lawson (EDGE, Auburn)
42. New Orleans — Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
43. Philadelphia — Kevin King (CB, Washington)
44. Buffalo — Evan Engram (TE, Ole Miss)
45. Arizona — Forrest Lamp (G, Western Kentucky)
46. Indianapolis — Raekwon McMillan (LB, Ohio State)
47. Baltimore — Dan Feeney (G, Indiana)
48. Minnesota — D’Onta Foreman (RB, Texas)
49. Washington — Obi Melifonwu (S, Connecticut)
50. Tampa Bay — JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, USC)
51. Denver — Jarrad Davis (LB, Florida)
52. Cleveland — Brad Kaaya (QB, Miami)
53. Detroit — Cameron Sutton (CB, Tennessee)
54. Miami — Raekwon McMillan (LB, Ohio State)
55. New York Giants — Cordrea Tankersley (CB, Clemson)
56. Oakland — Marshon Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
57. Houston — Elijah Qualls (DT, Washington)
58. Seattle — Haason Reddick (LB, Temple)
59. Green Bay — Alex Anzalone (LB, Florida)
60. Pittsburgh — Ryan Anderson (LB, Alabama)
61. Atlanta — Chris Wormley (DT, Michigan)
62. Kansas City — Curtis Samuel (WR, Ohio State)
63. Dallas — Caleb Brantley (DT, Florida)
64. New England — Marcus Maye (S, Florida)
(Note — we’ll come back to this in a minute. I know you’re going to want an explanation for Seattle’s first round pick)
Now click here to go and check out Tony Pauline’s mock draft at his new site Draft Analyst. Tony is without doubt the #1 draft insider, the undisputed best in the business, and updates his new website daily with the best info you’ll find on the internet. It’s also worth noting he’s been extremely accurate with his info on the Seahawks in recent years.
I like to compare mock drafts because sometimes if I’m high on a player, I tend to count them out too easily for the Seahawks. The players available after pick #20 in Tony’s projection that were off the board in mine are as follows:
Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
Takkarist McKinley (EDGE, UCLA)
Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
Demarcus Walker (DE, Florida State)
Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
This highlights what an intriguing draft class this is going to be. There are plenty of options there. If they want to be aggressive in adding to the O-line and running game, they have an opportunity to do that. They’d probably feel quite comfortable moving down. But look at the defensive talent on the board: Jamal Adams, Takk McKinley, Charles Harris, Demarcus Walker, Taco Charlton, Budda Baker, Zach Cunningham, Quincy Wilson, Adoree’ Jackson. Nice.
Pauline’s mock also highlights how unlikely it is Garett Bolles will be available to the Seahawks. We spent most of the college football season mocking him to Seattle, while acknowledging he would eventually gain national attention and move up the board.
Bolles is a top-15 talent for sure and could easily land in the top ten. He’s too good to last into the bottom third of the first round.
Whether Seattle picks at #21 or #32, there’s a good chance they’ll be looking at a heavy defensive board. That doesn’t mean they won’t or can’t select an offensive player. There will be offensive lineman they might consider, running backs (possibly) and maybe even a wild card like a receiver or tight end (see below). But the defensive depth in this draft is outstanding.
So what about that Seahawks first round pick in my own mock? David Njoku, Miami.
I would urge people not to read too much into it. We’re at that pre-combine, pre-Senior Bowl stage. Knowledge and numbers are sadly lacking. Let’s see the O-line class, D-line class. Let’s get the info we need to have better discussions about what they might do. Let’s get into free agency and see how aggressive they are to fill needs.
Until then I’m going to start running through different options and creating different talking points. Because… why not?
Clearly tight end is not a big need. There’s enough hand-wringing about the use of one athletic 6-7 monster on this roster already. Adding a second might cause Twitter to explode (that might not be such a bad thing).
Please consider this though — the Seahawks don’t draft average athletes. They shoot for major, titanic sized upside. And if they are able to make some moves in free agency, considering a 6-4, 245lbs target who reportedly runs in the 4.4’s isn’t totally unrealistic.
Njoku received a second round grade from the draft committee. If the Seahawks have the #26 overall pick, they’ll likely be drafting a player with a second round grade.
So no — a tight end in round one doesn’t come close to addressing Seattle’s big needs. But it’s January 5th. Free agency hasn’t started. The combine invites haven’t even been sent out. And Njoku is an absolute beast.
Solomon Thomas declared for the draft today. Don’t expect him to be available for the Seahawks.
Thomas took part in the 2013 Nike Sparq Combine and look at the results:
Height: 6-3
Weight: 261lbs
Forty: 4.95s
Short shuttle: 4.25s
Powerball: 44
Vertical: 36.7 inches
SPARQ: 121.77
Only the following players had a better SPARQ score in the 2013 event:
Curtis Samuel (WR, Ohio State) — 126.78
Speedy Noil (WR, Texas A&M) — 153.51
Ed Paris (CB, LSU) — 130.8
Christian Miller (LB, Alabama) — 124.17
Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State) — 141.96
Trey Marshall (CB, Florida State) — 126.99
Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC) — 122.77
Elijiah Hood (RB, North Carolina) — 133.47
Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia) — 143.91
Shaun Hamilton (LB, Alabama) — 123.84
Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia) — 129.75
Tony Brown (CB, Alabama) — 136.2
Braxton Berrios (WR, Miami) — 131.37
Dillon Bates (LB, Tennessee) — 126.69
Joey Alfieri (LB, Stanford) — 131.28
Kavin Alexander (CB, Arkansas State) — 123.78
Notice the lack of defensive linemen on that list? Of those taking part in the nationwide Nike combines, Thomas was by far the most athletic D-liner. His SPARQ number is superior to the following:
Jamal Adams (S, LSU) — 117.63
Budda Baker (S, Washington) — 110.94
Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee) — 109.92
Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State) — 110.64
Malachi Dupre (WR, LSU) — 120.72
Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon) — 121.17
Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M) — 115.83
Deshone Kizer (QB, Notre Dame) — 74.88
Joe Mixon (RB, Oklahoma) — 105.33
Cam Robinson (T, Alabama) — 97.5
Travis Rudolph (WR, Florida State) — 107.01
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, USC) — 94.35
Jalen Tabor (CB, Florida) — 93.69
DeShaun Watson (QB, Clemson) — 96.93
Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida) — 97.65
His time in the short shuttle (4.25 seconds) would’ve been the fourth best time at the 2016 NFL combine for defensive linemen. Only Alex McCalister (4.00), Joey Bosa (4.21) and Shaq Lawson (4.21) ran faster than a 4.25.
Thomas’ vertical jump of 36.7 inches would’ve come second only to Dadi Nicolas’ 41 inch effort. The second best effort was Emmanuel Ogbah’s 35.5 inches.
The powerball is arguably a greater test of translatable strength compared to the bench press. Thomas’ score of 44 was only beaten at the 2013 Nike combines by Dante Booker Jr. (45.5).
The only think stopping him reaching the freakish SPARQ score of +130 is an average forty yard dash of 4.95 seconds. It’s worth noting that Joey Bosa only ran a 4.85 and Robert Nkemdiche a 4.87. Thomas ran this time at a lighter 261lbs. He’s currently listed at 273lbs but would ideally get into the 4.8’s after specific pre-combine speed training.
It’s not even that important really. Ultimately his 10-yard split time is the thing to keep an eye on.
This is a very intriguing pre-college physical profile and there’s every chance he’s more athletic now after a few years at Stanford.
Thomas took over the Sun Bowl against North Carolina with a statement performance. He lived in the backfield, winning with quickness off the edge, power working the interior and creating several splash plays. He had the play of the game — crashing into the backfield on a two-point attempt with UNC trying to tie with seconds remaining.
On this evidence he’s a top-15 lock and the top ten isn’t unrealistic either.
He lines up at DT a lot and moves around. In one sack against Notre Dame he engages the right guard and then uses the center/DT battling to his right almost as a shield to loop around and get to Deshone Kizer. It’s a creative way to get to the QB — highlighting his game awareness and not just his physicality.
Notre Dame often doubled teamed him in that game. He drew two false start flags on the same drive.
This is Thomas at his best working the interior:
Even without good pad level Solomon Thomas mows over the RG here. pic.twitter.com/Jo7MXbRkcl
— Justen Gammel (@gamscout) October 3, 2016
That said, you do occasionally find plays like this:
It’s hard to imagine Alamaba’s Jonathan Allen toiling with a tiny running back sent in to help out an overmatched O-liner. In fairness the running back does a good job here and really helps out the lineman — but Thomas needs to throw him to one side.
When he plays with the fire and attitude we saw against North Carolina he was virtually unstoppable. Playing with that level of intensity snap-by-snap is crucial to deliver on his massive potential. Let’s see that nasty edge every week. If he maintains that spark — he can be a special player at the next level.
We’ve talked recently about Seattle’e estimated $37m in cap space for 2017. There is an opportunity, for the first time in a few years, for the Seahawks to add a significant contributor from another team.
That said, here are some points that are worth considering:
1. With the cap rising, other teams also have more to spend
Seattle’s estimated cap space for 2017 puts them 20th only in the NFL per spotrac. So 19 other teams will have more to spend. And while it might be difficult for the Cleveland Browns at #1 ($108m in cap space) to attract free agents, here are some of the other teams with major money available:
#1 Cleveland ($108m)
#2 San Francisco ($87m)
#3 Tampa Bay ($84m)
#4 Tennessee ($74m)
#5 New England ($72m)
#6 Washington ($67m)
#7 Jacksonville ($67m)
#8 Carolina ($63m)
#9 Chicago ($63m)
#10 Indianapolis ($60m)
Teams like San Francisco could be aggressive in free agency as they try and rejuvenate the roster and avoid a repeat of 2-14. Jacksonville were big spenders a year ago. Contenders like New England and Carolina could make a splash — while teams like Washington, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Indianapolis will feel they can take a step forward with a strong off-season.
Only New England can compare to Seattle in terms of track record and an opportunity to win a Super Bowl — but players will realise that the likes of Carolina and Tampa Bay aren’t a million miles away. If it becomes a battle of finance, the Seahawks might get priced out.
2. Teams have room to retain the big names
If the Bengals wish to keep Kevin Zeitler, they have $47m to spend. If the Cardinals really like Calais Campbell, they have $39m to spend. If the Panthers want to retain Kawann Short, they have $63m to spend.
In the case of Zeitler and Short, the franchise tag is very much in play. A franchise tag at defensive tackle in 2016 was worth $13.6m. Something similar in 2017 would be a bargain for Short considering Mo Wilkerson’s average salary is $17.2m a year.
The Bengals, a notoriously thrifty organisation, might be less willing to pay a $13-14m O-line tender for Zeitler — but with the highest paid guard in the NFL (Kelechi Osemele) earning $11.7m a year and those just below getting around $10m, they have a nice benchmark to begin negotiations.
3. Who could be available?
Calais Campbell and Arizona will be an interesting case. This year his cap hit was $15.25m and he earned $14.75m in 2015 and $11.25m in 2014. He’s a similar age to Michael Bennett with a similar reputation — and it doesn’t appear Bennett will touch those types of numbers on his new contract.
Will Campbell appreciate the situation and work on a reduced pay extension to stay with Arizona? Possibly. He might also wish to see if he can continue to earn around $14-15m on the open market, considering the way D-line salaries have ballooned in recent years.
That doesn’t mean he’d get that type of money as a free agent — but if it gets that far, teams will have the opportunity to lure him away from Arizona even if it’s for $10-12m instead of $14-15m. With the way Campbell played in 2016 — he’s worth every penny of the salary he received this year.
Bruce Arians stated in his end of season press conference they will franchise tag Chandler Jones if they can’t agree a contract extension. That will be costly.
The Ravens might make a business decision on right tackle Ricky Wagner. They only have $19m to spend in 2017 and will likely prioritise defensive tackle Brandon Williams. It’s possible Williams eats up a large portion of that $19m — making it likely Wagner reaches free agency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have a bit of a cap problem. They currently have around $4m to spend in 2017. That will rise when they cut backup quarterback Nick Foles to save $10.75m. Cutting injury plagued Jamaal Charles saves them a further $7m.
That would create enough room to sign Eric Berry to a contract extension. They would have to make further cuts to try and retain defensive tackle Dontari Poe.
4. As the cap rises, so will contracts
Remember a year ago when every fan base was discussing the possibility of adding Olivier Vernon? He was considered a value option. He had 7.5 sacks in 2015, had 6.5 the year before. Maybe you could get him on a Cliff Avril type deal for a couple of seasons?
Vernon eventually agreed a contract with the Giants worth $17m a year.
Kelechi Osemele’s big contract in Oakland showed this wasn’t just a D-line craze. Teams have more money to spend than ever with the cap increasing rapidly every year. It’ll be interesting to see if the market steadies in 2017 or continues to boom. Who’d bet against another big pay rise for those available? And will that price out the Seahawks at the top end of the market?
5. What could be an alternative for Seattle?
Veteran trades can eliminate the need to negotiate a contract. The Seahawks dealt for Jimmy Graham knowing what his salary was for the next three years. They did sign a contract extension with Percy Harvin — but he was towards the end of his rookie deal.
We’ve seen this team be creative before. Would the Niners be willing to allow Joe Staley to move on as rumoured a few weeks ago? His deal is worth $11m in 2017 but drops to $7.7m in 2018 and 2019. If the Panthers draft one of Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook with the #8 overall pick — would they consider dealing Jonathan Stewart? His cap hit is $8.25m in 2017 but drops to $2.5m in 2018.
The Seahawks don’t have a ton of draft capital to spend but Over The Cap is estimating they’ll receive compensatory picks in rounds three and five. For the first time in 2017, teams will be able to trade compensatory picks. Would they gave up the third rounder for a veteran?
Elsewhere…
Several big name prospects declared for the draft in the last 24 hours including:
Gareon Conley (CB, Ohio State)
Patrick Mahomes (QB, Texas Tech)
Samaje Perine (RB, Oklahoma)
John Ross (WR, Washington)
Budda Baker (S, Washington)
Elijah Qualls (DT, Washington)
Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
T.J. Watt (LB, Wisconsin)
Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
By the time you’ve read this there’ll be others to add to the list. It’s that time of year, with only the National Championship game left to play in the college season.
Two players to keep an eye on during the draft process are David Sharpe (T, Florida) and David Njoku (TE, Miami). Sharpe has quite an interesting frame and played well at times this year. We highlighted him at the start of the season as someone who could rise amid a poor overall offensive tackle class. With so little depth at the position this year, Sharpe has a chance to really bolster his stock with a good combine.
Njoku meanwhile is an absolute freak. Until his decision I didn’t know he was intending to turn pro. He’s a big time athlete at 6-4 and 245lbs and could be a winner at the combine. This highlights video will give you a flavour of what he’s capable of:
The Seahawks might not be in the market for another tight end having drafted Nick Vannett in 2016 and with Jimmy Graham still under contract. They could also try and re-sign Luke Willson. Yet Njoku looks destined to have an impact at the next level and could be the next big ‘move’ TE. He might even get some first round love by the end of the draft process.
One final name to monitor is Bradley Chubb at NC State. Earlier today I watched Louisville’s blow out victory against NC State from a few weeks ago. Despite the one-sided scoreline Chubb did as good a job as anyone corralling Lamar Jackson in the open field and had a sack working the interior rush. He’s the cousin of Nick Chubb — and we know he’s a special athlete.
Chubb’s 21.5 TFL’s in 2016 is second all time at NC State — only beaten by Mario Williams’ final year before becoming the #1 pick in 2006. At 6-4 and 275lbs — he has inside/out rusher potential but also experience playing linebacker.
In a loaded year for defensive ends and EDGE rushers, Chubb might provide some value.
With the top-20 of the draft settled… here’s an updated mock draft (also accounts for Malik Hooker and John Ross declaring today)…
#1 Cleveland — Myles Garrett (EDGE, Texas A&M)
#2 San Francisco — Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
#3 Chicago — Jonathan Allen (DE, Alabama)
#4 Jacksonville — Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
#5 Tennessee — Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
#6 New York Jets — Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
#7 San Diego — Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
#8 Carolina — Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State)
#9 Cincinnati — Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
#10 Buffalo — Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
#11 New Orleans — Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
#12 Cleveland (via Philadelphia) — Ryan Ramcyzk (T, Wisconsin)
#13 Arizona — Garett Bolles (T, Utah)
#14 Indianapolis — Tim Williams (EDGE, Alabama)
#15 Philadelphia (via Minnesota) — Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
#16 Baltimore — Takkarist McKinley (EDGE, UCLA)
#17 Washington — Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
#18 Tennessee — O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
#19 Tampa Bay — Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
#20 Denver — John Ross (WR, Washington)
Next five (order not set)
#21 Detroit — Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
#22 Miami — Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
#23 New York Giants — Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)
#24 Oakland — Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)
#25 Houston — Budda Baker (S, Washington)
Finally a quick note on the Seahawks, this piece by Mike Sando ranks the playoff teams after consulting with a variety of anonymous NFL types. Seattle comes in tied seventh. One source highlights:
“Seattle’s run game is shaky, the quarterback is beat up, the offensive line is poor and the defense hasn’t been able to pitch shutouts without Earl Thomas. They have been exposed. Earl was the eraser for a lot of things on the defensive side. You have ‘Sherm’ [Richard Sherman] and [Bobby] Wagner and K.J. Wright as the main guys, but it is not the same defense, even at home.”
Missing Earl Thomas has been significant and could be one of the things addressed this off-season (better depth at safety). It’s perhaps unlikely the Seahawks will take a safety with their first pick given their collection of needs — but it does lend credence to the feeling they might target someone like Shalom Luani earlier than most are currently projecting.
The Seahawks started the day competing for the #2 seed in the NFC, they finished the day clinging on to the #3 seed.
Last weeks loss to Arizona cost Seattle a first round bye and an easier potential route through the playoffs. The best case scenario now is they’ll win at home in the Wildcard before heading to a rested Atlanta.
At times against lowly San Francisco, simply winning next weekend looked like a tall order.
Despite playing a 2-13 opponent with a miserable run defense — the Seahawks again struggled to establish a running game. The defense had a slow start — with two ‘hot knife through butter’ scoring drives bookended by costly 49er fumbles. Special teams had another rough outing with a sixth blocked PAT of the season and a wild snap that led to a safety.
It was hoped this was going to be a comfortable victory, building momentum going into the playoffs.
And just as things started to head that way with a nine-point advantage in the fourth quarter, Pete Carroll pulled several starters and suddenly it was game on again after a quick 49er touchdown.
It felt like a strange decision at the time considering the game was far from won. Being #3 instead of #4 isn’t insignificant. Let’s say the Seahawks do find some form in the post season and win next week before defeating Atlanta. They’re a Dallas loss away from hosting the NFC Championship game.
Carroll could argue that’s not a concern of his — keeping Russell Wilson et al healthy is the priority. It’s a fair point. Yet had the Seahawks lost to the 2-13 Niners, flopped to 9-6-1 and dropped to the #4 seed — the negativity to follow would’ve been significant. The second guessing extreme. The questions asked pointed.
It would’ve led to a week of avoidable drama.
Nevertheless, Trevone Boykin actually did well in relief. So did several others to finish the game off on offense. It’s a good job too — because they were a punt away from quite possibly losing the game.
What about some positives?
The defense — and especially the front seven — eventually did a good job establishing order and creating pressure. Bobby Wagner in particular was spectacular, as was Frank Clark and Michael Bennett. Russell Wilson was efficient and Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham had some nice plays.
An ankle injury to Nolan Frese might mean the Seahawks go and find a replacement long snapper. That could provoke a call to the guy who did the job competently with minimal drama for years — Clint Gresham.
For the second week in a row Alex Collins looked like Seattle’s best running back. It’s unclear why it took so long to get him involved in the game.
There’s not much else to say about an instantly forgettable seventh straight win against a former heated rival. We know what the Seahawks are now. They’re a talented roster for sure — with the players capable of launching a run.
Yet the common traits of a Super Bowl Champion are the ability to play well defensively, run the ball and be healthier than some of the other contenders. The Seahawks are capable of great defense but they’re inconsistent. They don’t have a threatening running game. They are missing key players like Earl Thomas and Tyler Lockett — and Russell Wilson certainly isn’t 100% either.
The way they’ve started the last three games has to be a concern too. Against a high-octane offense (and that’s what they’ll be facing the rest of the way) there’s a real threat we’ll see a repeat of the Green Bay debacle if they start as poorly as they have against LA, Arizona and San Francisco.
The hope has to be that they can find a spark now that every week is a potential season-ender. This is still the only team to beat New England with Tom Brady at quarterback this season. We’ve seen the heights they’re capable of. Now’s the time to show some metal.
Whatever happens, it feels like we’re edging closer to arguably the most important off-season in Pete Carroll’s tenure — potentially determining how much longer this group can stay near the top.
I’m doing national radio in the UK on week 17 so instant reaction will be a little less ‘instant’ today. Here’s an open thread for now.
Notes below. Happy New Year!
Feel free to use this as an open thread for tonight’s two college football playoff games.
1. Cleveland Browns — Myles Garrett (EDGE, Texas A&M)
2. San Francisco 49ers — Mitch Trubisky (QB, North Carolina)
3. Chicago Bears — Jonathan Allen (DE, Alabama)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars — Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
5. Tennessee Titans (via Rams) — Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
6. New York Jets — Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
7. San Diego Chargers — Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
8. Cincinnati Bengals — Solomon Thomas (DE, Stanford)
9. Carolina Panthers — Ryan Ramcyzk (T, Wisconsin)
10. Cleveland Browns (via Eagles) — Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State)
11. Arizona Cardinals — Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
12. Buffalo Bills — O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)
13. Indianapolis Colts — Tim Williams (EDGE, Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints — Takkarist McKinley (EDGE, UCLA)
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Vikings) — John Ross (WR, Washington)
16. Tennessee Titans — Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
17. Baltimore Ravens — Demarcus Walker (DE, Florida State)
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
19. Denver Broncos — Garett Bolles (T, Utah)
20. Washington Redskins — Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
21. Detroit Lions — Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
22. Miami Dolphins — Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
23. New York Giants — Budda Baker (S, Washington)
24. Kansas City Chiefs — Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)
25. Houston Texans — Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
26. Green Bay Packers — Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
27. Pittsburgh Steelers — Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson)
28. Seattle Seahawks — Haason Reddick (LB, Temple)
29. Atlanta Falcons — Jalen Tabor (CB, Florida)
30. Oakland Raiders — Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)
31. New England Patriots — Obi Melifonwu (S, Connecticut)
32. Dallas Cowboys — Malik McDowell (DE, Michigan State)
The Seahawks take who?
Yes, after days of talking about the O-line, the running game and interior pass rush — in this mock the Seahawks take a linebacker in round one.
Here’s the thing. A lot of the guys we’ve talked about being possible targets for the Seahawks are rising up the board. Garett Bolles looks like being a top-20 lock. I’d love to continue to pair him with the Seahawks — but is it realistic?
Even if someone like Vita Vea declares — he’ll likely head straight into the top-20 because he might be Haloti Ngata.
I could’ve given them a different defensive lineman or D’Onta Foreman — but I need to see their combine workouts to fully understand if they’ll be targets or not.
Troy’s Antonio Garcia is said to be a big riser according to Tony Pauline. Yet there’s very little tape available online at the moment.
The one thing you can always fall back on with the Seahawks is they love grit, beating adversity, freaky athleticism and production.
Step forward Haason Reddick.
At his junior pro-day he reportedly ran a 4.47 at 6-1 and around 230lbs. He also supposedly had a 10-10 in the broad jump and a 36-inch vertical.
Let’s compare this to Bruce Irvin’s combine:
Forty: 4.50
Broad jump: 10-3
Vertical jump: 33.5 inches
We’ll have to see if Reddick can back up the numbers above — but there’s your comparison.
Now let’s compare the two statistically:
Bruce Irvin’s two years at West Virginia
— 29 TFL’s
— 22.5 sacks
— 5 forced fumbles
Haason Reddick final two years at Temple
— 35 TFL’s
— 15.5 sacks
— 4 forced fumbles
— one interception
Reddick’s a former walk-on at Temple. Here’s what I wrote about him earlier this month:
In High School, Reddick suffered a fractured femur and missed an entire season. Upon his return, he suffered a torn meniscus. With no tape to impress potential landing spots in college, he went to Temple University with the intention of becoming a regular student.
His father grew up in Camden with one of the Owls’ assistants — Francis Brown — and put in a good word for him. He was offered the chance to walk-on.
Even then it wasn’t plain sailing. He was told there was no place for him on the team. A change of coaching staff from Al Golden’s crew to Matt Rhule’s led to one last chance and he took it and eventually earned a scholarship.
The rest is history.
If they’re looking for an impact player with great athleticism that has battled adversity — Reddick could be a target. He’s accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl where he’ll have a chance to bolster his stock.
A few weeks ago we talked about being able to possibly draft Garett Bolles, Haason Reddick and Shalom Luani in the same draft class. They could all end up in the top-50 by the end of April.
I know this won’t be many people’s ideal scenario. That’s not the point though — we’re here to look at different options and possibilities.
Could they trade down?
With two quarterbacks (Trubisky, Watson) off the board there’d be every chance. Some teams will want a shot at Deshone Kizer.
What would this mean in terms of Seattle’s big needs?
They’d still have a second rounder to get an impact player — but if they’re picking someone like Reddick they likely would’ve filled some needs in free agency.
Were they able to land an interior disruptor like Calais Campbell? Some veteran help for the O-line? Add a physical running back?
It’d be a lot of work to do in free agency — but not impossible. And any one of these needs could still be addressed in rounds two or three. The Seahawks are expected to receive an extra third round compensatory pick.
Who might they target later on?
Depending on what they do in free agency, here are some suggestions:
Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State) — he’s 6-4 and 275lbs with the tools to be an inside/out type rusher. He had 21.5 TFL’s this year and 10 sacks. The 21.5 TFL’s are the second best in school history behind Mario Williams’ 27.5 in 2005. He’s the cousin of Georgia running back Nick Chubb. We know Chubb had an explosive performance at his Nike SPARQ Combine so there’s a chance Chubb will have an exciting physical profile too.
Shalom Luani (S, Washington State) — Exciting, underrated safety with the range to cover a lot of ground quickly and the physical toughness to play up at the LOS. His backstory is the definition of grit and he could easily be a fast riser into the earlier rounds. If the Seahawks want to tap into a strong safety class and get some quality depth for Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, this could be their guy.
Forrest Lamp (T, Western Kentucky) — Probably more of a guard at the next level, Lamp came to prominence with a strong performance against Alabama earlier this year. The Seahawks want intelligent, explosive offensive linemen. We’ll see if Lamp has the physical profile at the combine — but his personality and character will be very attractive to teams.
Adam Bisnowaty (T, Pittsburgh) — He was a highly rated four-star recruit in High School with a wrestling background (something we know Tom Cable likes). He could compete at tackle or guard. He wears Evan Mathis’ #69 and there are some similarities in their style. Tony Pauline has compared Bisnowaty to Ricky Wagner — a free agent-to-be from Baltimore.
Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, Alabama) — Massive, athletic defensive tackle from a system we know the Seahawks appreciate. Great character, has battled some adversity. Talented musician and artist too. Not the best pass rusher but could forge a solid career as a Tony McDaniel type.
Chad Wheeler (T, USC) — At times really looks the part of a future pro tackle. Consistency isn’t always there and he has a tendency to lunge. If he can correct the technical issues he has a skill set worth monitoring. One to watch at the combine.
Elijah Qualls & Greg Gaines (DT’s, Washington) — Reports suggest Vita Vea won’t declare but it’s not clear what Qualls and Gaines intend to do. Both are really disruptive nose tackle types, capable of causing problems in the passing game and not just the run.
You could include others too. Dorian Johnson, Dan Feeney, Caleb Brantley, Chris Wormley, Dion Dawkins, Taylor Moton to name a few. The combine will reveal a lot as usual. We’ll have a better idea of the names to watch.
Derrick Nnadi announced after FSU’s Bowl victory yesterday he won’t be declaring for the draft.
Who moves up in the mock?
Solomon Thomas was outstanding in his Bowl game against North Carolina. He completely dominated throughout, making several splash plays including the game decider. On that evidence he’s going in the top-15. No doubt about it.
Taco Charlton was very productive against Florida State. Missouri’s Charles Harris hasn’t had much attention this year but teams will love his skill set and profile. Both will likely go in the top-25.
I prefer Garett Bolles to Ryan Ramcyzk but won’t ignore the noise that Ramcyzk is highly rated. Bolles’ age might be an issue for some teams (25 in May) but he should still crack the top-20.
Why aren’t you dropping Jabrill Peppers like everyone else?
Myles Garrett had 15 TFL’s in 2016. Guess how many TFL’s Jabrill Peppers (a safety/linebacker) had?
15.
He also had 3.5 sacks, seven QB hurries, an interception, a punt-return score and he averaged 6-yards per touch in the running game on offense.
Peppers was highly involved in virtually every Michigan game. He doesn’t have eight picks like Earl Thomas in his final year at Texas — but he still found a way to have a major impact.
Michael Bennett has agreed a three-year contract extension
Michael Bennett’s contract extension (worth $31.5m) is interesting for two reasons.
Firstly, it suggests the Seahawks are still extremely committed to their current core. Despite a somewhat difficult 2016 season (that has, admittedly, still resulted in a playoff berth) there doesn’t appear to be any rush to make changes and freshen things up.
Secondly, Bennett’s deal helps establish a market for his peers. Arizona’s Calais Campbell is only a year younger and has a similar reputation. This could easily be used as a starting point for his talks with the Cardinals.
The only other thing to consider with Campbell is his current salary. In 2016 his cap hit is $15.25m. It was $14.75m in 2015 and $11.25m in 2014. So while Bennett is gradually increasing his salary, Campbell is in a different position. Will he accept a pay cut to stay in Arizona aged 31? Or will he want to test the market?
The Seahawks stand to have at least some interest in Campbell if he becomes a free agent. He’s terrorised their offense for years and he has the kind of height and size they like in the interior.
Russ doing a little Calais Campbell recruiting #AlwaysBeClosing pic.twitter.com/B2alO4x1Jy
— Sam HawkBadger (@hwkbgr) December 30, 2016
This graph shows how dominant he’s been again in 2016 — and why he’s the type of player the Seahawks currently lack on the D-line:
Only 2 FA interior D have averaged more than 1 pressure per game this season: Short (1.2) and Campbell (1.5). Campbell jumps off page here pic.twitter.com/H9ro2Cxt9N
— Ben B (@guga31bb) December 30, 2016
Adding an interior disruptor to the defense is likely to be one of the priorities in the off-season. The three we’ve talked about — Campbell, Kawann Short and Dontari Poe, stand out on that list.
They will be expensive.
We won’t know the extent of Bennett’s cap hit in 2017 until the signing bonus is revealed. They should, theoretically, have room to make a free agent addition on the O-line and D-line if they want to.
let me say this again- SEA should have $20M+ for outside FA in 2017 even after extending Britt, Kam, Moses, Jimmy if they structure it right
— DAVIS HSU (@DavisHsuSeattle) December 30, 2016
It depends how aggressive they want to be — and how much they want to look at other positions (eg running back). It’s also a reasonable draft class for defensive linemen.
On the topic of running backs, Dave Wyman offered an interesting slant on the running game struggles this year during his ESPN 710 show yesterday:
“I think more of it (the criticism) is 50/50 (between the running backs and O-line), if not even more for the running backs because, look, it doesn’t take that long to get… I mean if you have a guy that hits a spot at the right time, blocking someone can really be just getting in someone’s way or inhibiting them just a little bit. So it’s not always about crushing a guy off the line, it’s just about shielding him off. So I think some running backs have a much better sense of that than people think. This is just my prediction but I bet you if you listen to (Tom) Cable, that if you sat in those meetings… that there would be lots of talk about running backs not hitting the hole if you went back and looked at all the film this year. That that’s been more of the problem.”
There’s a desire to pin all of the problems on the offensive line and that’s somewhat justifiable considering the first half of the Arizona game. Yet it also feels like the Seahawks have not trusted their running backs to be a focal point. Whether that’s injuries, form, inexperience or something else. They’ve not committed to the run, as we discussed yesterday, and it might be much more to do with the running backs than people think.
For example — the Seahawks have arguably tried to put the offensive performance in the hands of their stars. Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. Let those guys carry the offense. And yet because the O-line has been so suspect in pass protection, we’ve seen lurches between explosive production and hopelessness.
If they had a reliable running back on the roster, a star of equal importance to the three names above, they might’ve gone in a different direction. How often did they simply resort to ‘lean on Marshawn’ in the past? It was frequently a catalyst for the offense — and the O-line — finding some form.
It’s unfortunate that 2017 might end a run of viable veteran options being available via trade. In 2015 the Bills made a deal for LeSean McCoy, swapping him for linebacker Kiko Alonso. What a bargain that was. Earlier this year the Titans acquired DeMarco Murray from Philadelphia for a swap of fourth round picks. Again, what a bargain.
Both of these trades, and Seattle’s move for Marshawn Lynch in 2010, show the value of acquiring high talent (and proven production) at the running back position. There aren’t many great backs in the league.
It’s really difficult to identify a potential trade target for 2017. Someone capable of providing impact talent so the team isn’t having to rely on the draft or their injured incumbents providing a definitive solution.
Cincinnati’s Jeremy Hill might be available — but his production has completely dropped off after an impressive rookie season. This article details his rise and fall.
Mark Ingram has occasionally found himself in the doghouse in New Orleans — remember his disappearing act after a fumble against the Seahawks? What type of compensation would be required though, considering there’s little reason for the Saints to let him go on the cheap?
LeVeon Bell is set to be a free agent — but surely Pittsburgh will at the very least give him the franchise tag?
Adrian Peterson will need to decrease his $18m salary for 2017 to stay in Minnesota. He could provide an X-factor for one year on say a $6m deal if released.
Vikings rule out RB Adrian Peterson for Week 17. There's a good chance his appearance against the Colts was his last as a Viking.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 30, 2016
Over the cap suggested recently that Carolina could part ways with Jonathan Stewart. Pete Carroll has often expressed his admiration for Stewart going back to his PAC-10 days. However, with an estimated $62.7m to spend in 2017 — what motivation is there for the Panthers to part ways with a productive stalwart with an $8.25m salary?
LeGarrette Blount is 31 next year but coming off a great season in New England. His deal in 2016 is only worth $1m unbelievably. He might be an option on a one or two year deal without breaking the bank.
The draft could also provide a solution — but it’s quite a maddening draft class. Players that are decent but not overly exciting. Players with question marks (how good is D’Onta Foreman?) and two guys at the top of the class who just look spectacular (Fournette & Cook).
This probably isn’t about mere depth at running back. This team arguably requires someone capable of being a genuine X-factor. And assuming the Seahawks O-line won’t suddenly turn into the Cowboys front five over the summer — probably someone capable of creating something out of very little occasionally. Which, believe it or not, is possible beyond Marshawn Lynch.

Have the Seahawks committed enough to their running game this year?
Time for a different angle on all the O-line talk.
I mentioned in the podcast yesterday something that possibly doesn’t get brought up enough. Are some of the problems on the offensive line self-inflicted?
After all, this is a team that for years has sought to be committed to the run. To an extent the players they’ve added were brought here to run block first and foremost — to carve out Seattle’s key identity on offense.
Run, run, run.
Has it ever felt like this team truly committed to the run game at any point in 2016?
The Seahawks have drafted some of the most explosive players in the draft in recent years to play on the O-line. When we put together our Trench Explosion Formula to judge draft prospects, we went back and looked at Seattle’s previous picks. The results showed a concerted effort to target explosive, physically dominant players to compete in the trenches.
Seattle’s guards and center are arguably the most explosive trio of linemen in the league based on their pre-draft testing.
This isn’t a finesse group of guys. They’re made for running the ball.
In the pre-season we saw an interior blowing people off the LOS and creating nice lanes for Christine Michael. We saw clever misdirection plays, big yardage. A group that looked ready to set the tone during the regular season.
And yet here we are, heading into the final weekend of the NFL season and the Seahawks are 19th in the league for total number of runs (378).
The Dallas Cowboys, ranked first, have run the ball exactly 100 more times than the Seahawks. Even the New England Patriots are #3 on the list with 453 attempts.
Alternatively, the Seahawks are #12 in pass attempts. Dallas are at #19.
You’d never imagine these numbers watching the Seahawks between 2012-2014 or listening to the way Pete Carroll talks about his vision for this franchise.
Can a case be made that the Seahawks could’ve made life easier for this young, inexperienced group by dedicating their offense to the run? Emphasising their physical traits and covering up some of their technical weaknesses and lack of understanding?
Have they damaged the confidence and psyche of the unit by asking them to pass protect a lot, considering the widespread criticism that has followed?
Have they abandoned the run too early in games and almost ignored it in others?
There might be reasons for this. Injuries to the quarterback and how defenses have adjusted when playing Seattle. Losing Russell Wilson’s run production. Injuries at running back. The way certain games have flowed (eg needing to come from behind). Have they ever truly trusted the running backs? Christine Michael was cut, Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise injured and it took another spate of injuries for Alex Collins to get any kind of significant work.
None of this excuses the poor play in 2016 — but has progress stalled because the Seahawks have not focused on the one thing they’ve done well for years and arguably drafted these guys to do?
There are flashes of talent on the tape. Potential. Tom Cable noted in his press conference yesterday that Germain Ifedi has been ‘fairly dominant’ recently. Look at the way he attacks the second level here:
Ifedi actually looked kind of…good? For large parts of the Arizona game pic.twitter.com/K8smQUKojq
— Ben B (@guga31bb) December 29, 2016
Also note the way Gilliam drives his man off the LOS to create a nice big lane for Alex Collins.
This was a run play.
Now let’s look at this one:
Ifedi: Who should I block???
Britt: Block 98
Ifedi: BLOCK NO ONE!? pic.twitter.com/SpjKAEEuAH
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) December 29, 2016
This is a pass. Ifedi doesn’t know his assignment and has to ask Justin Britt what to do. Britt points at one guy but it’s too late. Ifedi is lost and doesn’t block anybody.
It’s a small sample size of course but it kind of highlights how green this O-line is. They don’t even fully understand what they’re supposed to do. With three first time starters including rookies at right guard and left tackle — this has probably happened a few times this season.
How often do you think Ronald Leary or Zack Martin turn to Travis Frederick right before the snap and ask, ‘Hey, so which is my guy again?’
And yet physically they’re good enough to just get out there and execute a run play against a big, aggressive Arizona defensive front and look really good doing it.
Should they be leaning on the physical upside of these guys instead of trying to master pass-protection?
Should they be committing, universally, to the running game to make life easy for them?
It’s too late now, going into week 17, to really feel the benefit of such a commitment. Had they done this after the Tampa Bay game we might’ve seen a 2014 style ‘slug fest’ end to the season and an offense that at least is not a hindrance (as it has been in several games).
Hindsight is a wonderful thing — but I suspect they’d rather be in the top-five for rushing attempts right now than #19 and live with the results. Maybe they’d be a bad running team still? At least we’d know.
They might actually have an offensive identity. They might actually have a consistent offense.
What they actually have is a hotchpotch of parts. They’re not doing anything particularly well game-to-game. Given everything we’ve heard about the importance of the run to this team since 2010 — it feels like a mistake that with this O-line they didn’t just commit to their physical upside.
What are the consequences? The clamour in the off-season will be for the Seahawks to spend big on the O-line in free agency. Find immediate quality starters in the hope expensive talent will give the team a quick fix.
It’s a shame really because it’s clear there is talent and potential with the existing starters. And the plan, we all believed, was to create an O-line that could grow together and be good for years at an inexpensive price.
It’ll be a hard sell to stand by this group going into 2017. Not just with fans — but also probably with the more outspoken members of the team. 2016 has the feel of a potential lost season. They don’t want to go through this again next year.
And yet you might be giving up on them because of a self-inflicted crisis. They might actually be the answer, believe it or not. Some further investment would be needed of course. I still think Utah’s Garett Bolles could be the ideal first round pick for this team. They might not get a chance to select him — he is that good. There are others though. The middle rounds of the 2017 draft should provide some nice options too.
However, with the 2016 performance so far you imagine they’ll feel obliged to open the cheque book and be aggressive. Or make trades.
Anything to extend the Championship window.
This won’t necessarily be the answer either. According to Football Outsiders, Minnesota’s O-line is 30th in the run game and 19th in the passing game. Their big off-season moves included signing Alex Boone and Andre Smith. Combined the pair cost $11.2m in 2016.
In comparison, Seattle is ranked 26th and 25th for running and passing respectively.
The teams at the top of the rankings are generally sides with home-grown O-lines. Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, New Orleans, Tennessee. Units crafted over time with a bit of experience thrown in for good measure.
So while it will be attractive to many to go out and spend, a greater commitment to running the ball in 2017 and further investment via the draft might not be the worst thing for this side. Whether they can justify that — internally or externally — is another thing completely. Especially this team, determined to win now and needing to address other needs too such as the defensive line or a defense in general that is enduring a historically bad year for turnovers.