Author: Rob Staton (Page 366 of 423)

Something for a lazy Sunday… game tape on Dontari Poe, Vinny Curry, Whitney Mercilus, Andre Branch and Chandler Jones. Keep an eye on Marshall’s Curry, a player who theoretically fits what the Seahawks are looking for – he’s a high motor pass rusher with a lot of college production. Although he’s not the biggest statistically (6-3, 266lbs) he looks big on tape and plays with a lot of control. Unlike Mercilus and Branch, he’ll be more adept at lining up in multiple looks to create mismatches, but his run defense will ensure he doesn’t challenge the top 2-3 guys in the class. I still fully expect Curry to go earlier than most people are currently projecting.

A lot of Seahawks fans – maybe more than 50% – expect the team to draft a quarterback of the future next month. It’s considered Seattle’s greatest need, and with good reason. The upcoming draft will be the third conducted by Pete Carroll and John Schneider and so far they haven’t spent a single pick on the position. Fans don’t just expect that to change in 2012, they expect a quarterback to be drafted early. Some people are probably going to be disappointed.

It’s not like the Seahawks haven’t been preparing you for this. In an interview with KING-5’s Chris Egan, John Schneider stated the team wouldn’t ‘panic’ in the search for a long term solution at quarterback. Then just a few days later, Schneider reiterated that message when speaking to Clare Farnsworth: “I just know if you panic at the position, it can set the organization back. So we’re not going to do that. That may disappoint fans, because they want to see an instant guy and have that instant success. But really, you’re better off continuing to build your team.” In translation, it kind of means don’t get your hopes up.

The message is clear – trust us to get this right. So what is the plan?

Team’s tend to work ahead ahead more than we realise. That’s easier to do when you have the kind of experience Pete Carroll has working within the college ranks. By his own admission, that advantage will disappear soon. However, the Seahawks in my estimation have two more drafts (2012 & 2013) to tap into Carroll’s insider knowledge. That includes identifying a long term option at quarterback.

If the Seahawks believe the options will be superior next year, would they really spend an early pick on a quarterback for the sake of it? If you have two or three pass rushers rated very highly who will be available with the #12 pick, reaching on a quarterback would be the kind of ‘panic’ move Schneider says he wants to avoid. A lot of people are high on Ryan Tannehill, others not so much. I suspect the Seahawks will fit into the ‘not so much’ category. He’s the one rising prospect at the moment, but there’s also this great unknown about his potential. He’ll turn 24 in July, yet hasn’t got a great deal of starting experience. If and when the Seahawks do draft a quarterback in round one, I think they want a good feeling of what they’ll be getting at the next level. Tannehill is a tough one to work out and has a lot of growing to do, but he also has a high upside. I’m not sure the Seahawks will bank on pure upside, particularly when there are certain habits in Tannehill’s game that will need to be corrected.

In fact, I think it’s very likely they’ll have other quarterbacks – including Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins – graded above Tannehill, with the view that they present better value at the position they’ll be available. Osweiler is two and a half years younger than Tannehill, also has a high upside but isn’t likely to be taken in the top half of round one. You can afford to take your time with a prospect like that, while the investment needed to acquire him will carry less demand for an immediate return. Tannehill – the guy many believe will be the only other quarterback to be drafted in the first round after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III – may not interest Seattle. So they move on, and this is where things get a little more complicated when we try to work out the team’s plan.

Let’s say there are at least two – maybe three – quarterbacks they rate very highly that will be part of next year’s class. Matt Barkley, Logan Thomas and Tyler Wilson are three names that intrigue me more than any other at this stage and the team may have a similar view of things. Let’s narrow it down even further and propose there’s one guy who really stands out. From a team’s perspective, you’ve maybe had your eye on him all along and are willing to do almost anything it takes to make him your quarterback. What’s more, you believe he’s the kind of prospect who can start early in his career and you’ve spent three years building the team in anticipation of acquiring a player just like this. Sure, there’s no guarantee you can get him. But you want the opportunity to at least find out, and you’ll forge a contingency plan just in case it doesn’t work out. In that scenario, do you take a quarterback in round two this year? Knowing that you’ll do whatever it takes to get the guy you really want in 12 months time?

For arguments sake let’s come up with a mock-scenario. You draft a guy in round two next month, high enough for people to believe this is your guy. The league generally considers a round two pick to be an impact player and a contributor, so you’re making a high investment in a quarterback who most people would expect to get a chance to start one day. Even so, he sits as a rookie because he’s a little bit more raw – maybe that’s why he fell to round two in the first place? Then in twelve months time, you draft another quarterback in round one – possibly after a bold trade up the board. People will ask – not unfairly – why did you draft that guy last year? He’s not played a snap as a rookie, and already you’re writing him off? Why didn’t you make better use of that pick?

Sure, he could start in year two and be the bridge to the new rookie. But the NFL is a different beast now and it’s something Carroll has touched on – college quarterbacks are more prepared to start, and in many ways they are also expected to start when drafted in the first round. I’m not sure you can necessarily say the same for an inexperienced player such as Brock Osweiler – a realistic second round option for a lot of teams. So if we consider that drafting a quarterback in round two isn’t likely to impact the starter in 2012 – it’ll still likely be Tarvaris Jackson or another veteran acquired during free agency – would it not be wiser to keep building other areas of the team in preparation for the move you intend to make next year?

People could counter by stating a lot of teams probably thought Andrew Luck was ‘the one’ a year ago, yet it took a truly absymal season by the Colts to land him. Nobody ever had the chance to trade up for the Stanford quarterback. It’s a valid point, but let’s also remember – Luck is a generational talent. The player Seattle could be targeting may not have the same reputation and therefore may be more attainable than you think. You might not even have to trade up. There will also be alternatives – as Washington realised in this draft class despite being ‘out of Luck’.

This is a just a situation I wanted to contemplate, a mock proposal. It’s not one I necessarily agree with, it’s not necessarily what the team will do. However, I think there’s a very realistic chance we won’t see a quarterback drafted in the first two rounds and some of the above may play a part in that. Personally I would have no issues with this team spending a second round pick on a player I rate as highly as Brock Osweiler, even if he never plays a down before you again invest in the position. As you can see in the video at the top of the page, there’s legitimate talent to work with. It also takes the pressure off the following year when you look to make the high pick on a quarterback. If you need to move up, having a guy in the stable could work as a leverage tactic in negotiations. If a deal can’t be done, you won’t need to panic. In many ways, I think it should be a no-brainer for Seattle – if Osweiler is there in round two, take the guy. That’s just my opinion.

Erik Galko yesterday speculated that Pete Carroll “loves” Osweiler, while Scott Enyeart noted that Carroll has been keeping a close eye on Kirk Cousins. I’ve heard similar things about both players – and also Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson – although I’d caution against optimistic thoughts any will be drafted within the first two rounds. However much they like Osweiler, they might like somebody else even more – that player just isn’t available yet. And if the grade between quarterback’s is pretty even across the board this year, picking Wilson in the fourth may give the team a chance to address other areas and max out value in each round.

Of course, there also comes a point when Osweiler is too good to pass. If a lack of experience and unique mechanics leads to a fall, in round three you’re not passing up an early Christmas gift like that. Seattle can justify usurping a third rounder 12 months down the line if it comes to that and it’s a par investment for a decent back-up quarterback. There’s also the opportunity to turn that investment into more draft stock (see: San Diego and Charlie Whitehurst) and expectations would be measured as a mid-rounder. It’s only one rounds difference, but Seattle’s ambitions are less likely to compromised or challenged if/when they go big a year later.

And amid all this talk of quarterbacks, we’re forgetting that there are other areas of the team that need addressing too. A plan such as this will also be about improving the team’s pass rush – currently solely reliant on Chris Clemons. It’s about filling holes at linebacker, with Leroy Hill and David Hawthorne still on the open market and perhaps preparing for a new challenge elsewhere. If they know who they want at quarterback – and he’s not available this year – I refer you back to Schneider’s quote from earlier: “Really, you’re better off continuing to build your team.” Get a dynamic pass rusher in round one. Find a starting linebacker. Maybe even consider boosting your run game further with a better compliment for Marshawn Lynch.

If what we’ve talked about here plays out, it shouldn’t be constituted as neglecting the quarterback position. If anything, it’s a real understanding of just how important it is to get this right. Carroll and Schneider may only get one chance to go ‘all-in’ on the position. Fail, and it’ll be costly on a team and individual level. If the guy you really want is going to be there next year and you have a firm belief that he’s the one, then who are we to argue if they’re trying to hit for the fences? Continue to build other areas of the team. This is a rebuild being crafted one step at a time, without forcing the issue and becoming careless. It could mean another year of patience, but the Carroll/Schneider story has started well enough, let’s see what the next chapter brings.

These two men aren't moving to Seattle, but they're still helping the Seahawks

This free agency period couldn’t have gone much better for the Seahawks. While a certain degree of fist clenching occurred as Peyton Manning drifted away and Mario Williams shacked up in Buffalo, the reality is neither were ever likely to land in Seattle.

The front office understandably wanted to meet with Manning because, ultimately, it’s Peyton Manning. But there were reportedly 12 teams who reached out to the future Hall-of-Famer and that number probably got higher as time went on. He met with just four teams – the four most serious contenders. Seattle’s checklist for the off-season may have included ‘try and arrange meeting with Peyton Manning’, but it didn’t necessarily include ‘sign Peyton Manning’.

Williams has signed a deal including over $50m in guarantees and Buffalo are on the hook for around $16m per year. The Seahawks are not going to be signing contracts like that any time soon. This front office evidently wants to build around a core of players who fit the competition mantra – young, hungry and different (in a good way). They also want to be able to reward those who succeed, keeping the key members of the team. When the time comes to re-sign Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and Max Unger – some fans may appreciate why it pays to have cap room in the bank. Rest assured, any angst over failing to compete for Williams this week would be doubled if  Thomas or Okung are forced to walk in the future.

Seattle’s front office is playing it cool, not rushing into the feeding frenzy and searching for value. Yes, it may be a bit boring for fans who clamour for the big splash. Ultimately though, this is how championship teams are built and how they prosper for multiple years. Although significant holes remain (including one well advertised hole under center), after four drafts under Carroll and Schneider I have a feeling most people will be content with the work done. You may have to wait twelve months for your quarterback fix, but it’ll probably be worth the wait. Those are the cards that have been dealt.

Meanwhile, the team has gone about it’s business efficiently this year. They’ve made key re-signings such as Red Bryant, Marshawn Lynch and Paul McQuistan. They’ve looked into the veteran quarterback market and will almost certainly add a signal caller on a competitive rate that won’t restrict the team from a big splash in the future. But it’s not just the work conducted by Carroll and Schneider that has been a major positive. Elsewhere, other teams are also helping the Seahawks in a big way before next month’s draft.

There’s no need to mess around here – the Seahawks are drafting a pass rusher in round one. Not another offensive lineman, not a receiver. Not even a quarterback. They’ve publically highlighted the pass rush as an area for improvement and they’re not trying to deceive anyone. There is a top tier of three defensive end prospects who will leave the board early, followed by a decent looking second tier. We’ve debated who might also be looking for defensive line help before the #12 pick, but it’s a list that possibly gets shorter with every passing day of free agency.

– The Jacksonville Jaguars needed to hit the free agent receiver market, but were surprisingly quiet while Vincent Jackson, Robert Meachem and others were making visits. They secured a deal for Dallas’ Laurent Robinson, but it’s hardly the big splash fans were hoping for. Blaine Gabbert needs help if he’s going to make it in the NFL and Jacksonville’s group of receivers is among the worst in the league. They re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey and a strong second tier of pass rushers may encourage the Jags to go in a different direction in round one. Moving up to draft Justin Blackmon can’t be ruled out, while Michael Floyd is a strong alternative. They need to find  a quality target for Gabbert, it’s the #1 priority.

– Miami owns the next pick after Jacksonville and they’re losing the battle for Peyton Manning. It’s not a good sign for a franchise with so much history to strike out on Jim Harbaugh (strike one), Jeff Fisher (strike two) and now Peyton Manning (strike three). The end result is a team with a new coaching staff, but no quarterback and now no top receiver following the Brandon Marshall trade. Joe Philbin worked in a system in Green Bay that utilised talented receivers so well, it’s hard to imagine Miami will try to get by at the position. Despite initial feelings they would draft a defensive end or right tackle, it looks as if the Dolphins may have to prioritise quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) or wide receiver (Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd). They could still sign Matt Flynn who has worked with Philbin before, but Mike Sherman also has history at Texas A&M with Tannehill.

– Buffalo shocked the NFL by signing Mario Williams to a mega-deal. They now have a defensive line filled with talent and will surely concentrate on other key areas in the draft. Despite spending two high picks on offensive lineman in 2009 (Eric Wood and Andy Levitre) the Bills also traded away left tackle Justin Peters to Philadelphia that year. They’ve shown little interest in re-signing 2011 starter Demetrius Bell, which suggests the #10 pick could be spent on a new blind-side blocker. Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin should be available in that range and both players would be solid additions. While we can’t rule out the drafting of another pass rusher to compliment Williams, the sheer amount of dollars invested in the defensive line is already taking up a large portion of the team’s cap. After all, what use is a good pass rush if you’re own quarterback is facing similar pressure from less talented players?

Only last week we discussed the possibility of Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw and Quinton Coples being drafted by the teams listed above, leaving the Seahawks in no man’s land. Now – it wouldn’t be a total shock if all three made it to #12, giving the Seahawks their pick of the bunch. That’s an unlikely scenario, but not impossible. Seattle will be out of luck in a big way if one of their preferred picks isn’t on the board at #12. When the team adds a pass rusher in round one and makes further additions to the front seven, they’ll be closing in on a top-echelon defense. And with that side of the ball secured, it’ll be time to start planning for a big splash to fill the other big need on this roster.

Red Bryant - Seattle's priority signing in free agency

Feel free to use this thread to discuss free agency as it happens. The market opens at 4pm EST, with big names such as Mario Williams, Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson set to cash in. Quarterbacks like Matt Flynn will be searching for new homes, while the Peyton Manning saga may finally draw to a conclusion. We could even see some trade activity. 

In my opinion, the Seahawks won’t be major players for the big names. Although they’ve been heavily linked to Williams, Flynn and others, I suspect the priority this off-season will be to look after their own. Red Bryant will be the priority – and rival teams in the NFC West could make life difficult by raising the stakes. Seattle won’t want to lose one of the cornerstone’s of their defense and Bryant would be tough to replace. Other free agents such as David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill will test the market, as will pro-bowl full back Michael Robinson. 

Here are a few predictions, we’ll see how many come true… 

Mario Williams (DE) – resigns with the Houston Texans, who spent Monday clearing room 

Vincent Jackson (WR) – moves to Tampa Bay despite serious interest from Chicago, Washington and San Diego 

Matt Flynn (QB) – the market has a slow start but eventually he and Cleveland agree terms 

Red Bryant (DE) – re-signs with Seattle for more than they expected to pay 

Eric Winston (RT) – Washington finds some cap room to make an offer 

Carl Nicks (OG) – Moves to Chicago who fight off competition from several teams 

Marques Colston (WR) – Jacksonville will hit the market for receivers hard 

Ben Grubbs (OG) – signs with St. Louis as the Rams rebuild their offensive line 

Jared Gaither (OT) – re-signs with San Diego who need to lock him down 

Paul Soliai (DT) – an option for Seattle if Bryant moves on, but he doesn’t so Soliai signs for Indianapolis 

LaRon Landry (S) – signs a short-term deal to stay in the NFC East with the Dallas Cowboys 

Cortland Finnegan (CB) – the Cowboys further repair their secondary here, allowing them to go O-line in round one of the draft

Today I wanted to highlight two small-school prospects from South Carolina State University. Patrick Washington is a converted linebacker who plays defensive end, while Antuanne Kerr is a fierce run-blocking tight end. The Seahawks never leave a rock unturned when searching for prospects, so maybe we’ll see one of these guys in the PNW next season? This blog isn’t just about promoting Seattle’s options in the early rounds and we’re happy to help prospects such as Patrick and Antuanne get their name into the public domain. If you’re a small school prospect who has some tape you want to get out there, feel free to email me via rob@seahawksdraftblog.com

Patrick Washington (DE/LB, South Carolina State)
6-0, 240lbs

Patrick switched from linebacker to defensive end in 2008, recording 7.5 sacks as a senior including a forced fumble. He lists speed as a key asset but also determination – having suffered through a nagging injury in 2009 and still recorded four sacks and seven tackles for a loss. Patrick earned team MVP and defensive player of the week honours during his final season at South Carolina State. The all-22 tape below shows he’s willing to dip inside and mix things up, and he has the closing speed to make plays in the backfield.

Antuanne Kerr (TE, South Carolina State)
6-3, 245lbs

Antuanne played both defensive end and tight end in high school, earning all-state and all-county honours and also making the state championship in basketball. He continued that trend at SC State playing on defense and offense, earning an honorable all-america mention. He was raised a military kid and will graduate from the university in May. Antuanne has scheduled a pro-day for March 28th. As you’ll see in the video below, he loves to block.

Later today I’ll be starting a free-agency ‘open thread’ for people to discuss the market.

Quinton Coples quickly realises that sleeveless shirt = people can see tattoo

We’ve highlighted four key names to watch for the Seahawks in round one of the draft: Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples and Trent Richardson. This is a team that knows it needs to improve the pass rush and with 2-3 key additions to the front seven, Seattle could find itself in possession of a border-line elite defense. Many people consider this a ‘six-player draft’ – a sextet of elite players that are expected to go early, possibly 1-6. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be the top two picks, potentially followed by Matt Kalil, Morris Claiborne, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon. Out of that group, the one most likely to squirm through to Seattle is Alabama’s Richardson. We see him as the wildcard option that could divert the team’s attention away from the pass rush.

However, what happens if all four players are off the board by the #12 pick? It’s a question that’s been asked a lot recently, so I wanted to address it. I think it’s unlikely that Upshaw, Ingram, Coples and Richardson will all be gone by #12. Impossible? Not at all. Unlikely? I’d say so. But it’s perhaps more likely in the aftermath of the Washington-St. Louis trade than it was previously.

Had the Browns moved up to grab RGIII instead of the Redskins, it would’ve increased the likelihood of Ryan Tannehillgoing #6 to Washington. Tannehill’s position in the top-10 is now in doubt and he could be replaced by one of the top defensive lineman or Richardson. Now, the ‘Bama running back has three potential suitors at picks #4 (Cleveland), #5 (Tampa Bay) and #6 (St. Louis). Cleveland could take any one of Blackmon, Claiborne or Richardson. Tampa Bay would entertain drafting Claiborne or Richardson depending on who the Browns select. St. Louis are not an obvious candidate to take a running back but if Blackmon and Claiborne are both off the board at #4 and #5, they may simply take the top ranked player – and that could be Trent Richardson. The Rams will own five first round picks in the next three years as they begin to rebuild and they need to seize good opportunities. Drafting Richardson – despite their other needs – would be a classic example.

If Richardson goes in the top-six, the Seahawks are then banking on one of the top pass rushers getting through picks 7-11. Jacksonville’s intentions will become clear during free agency, but their main priority has to be finding offensive playmakers and improving their pass rush. Expect the Jaguars to go big on the free agent wide receiver market to potentially open up the opportunity to draft a defensive end at #7. Miami could be in play for Ryan Tannehill given the links to Mike Sherman, but if they address the gaping hole at quarterback with Peyton Manning (looking unlikely) or Matt Flynn (could become more likely) then you have to believe the Dolphins will be in the market for a pass rusher too at #8.

Carolina needs to improve it’s interior defensive line more than the edge rush at #9, but Buffalo at #10 are another team who will be aggressively searching for pass rush help. It might be best to start pinning your hopes on Miami not concluding a deal for Manning or Flynn in order to make Tannehill a logical choice at #8. Even that won’t necessarily guarantee anything. Todd McShay’s updated mock draft looks at this scenario with the top eleven going:

#1 IND – Andrew Luck
#2 WAS – Robert Griffin III
#3 MIN – Matt Kalil
#4 CLE – Trent Richardson
#5 TB – Morris Claiborne
#6 STL – Justin Blackmon
#7 JAC – Melvin Ingram
#8 MIA – Ryan Tannehill
#9 CAR – Quinton Coples
#10 BUF – Courtney Upshaw
#11 KC – Riley Reiff

Even with Tannehill landing in Miami, McShay still believes the top three pass rushers leave the board in the first ten picks. The Carolina pick is debatable, justified as such, McShay: “The Panthers have big needs at wide receiver and corner, but with no worthy options at those positions, (Quinton) Coples becomes an attractive option. Coach Ron Rivera is looking to shore up the defensive front, and you can never have enough good pass-rushers. And because Coples is a top-five talent who should slip just a bit because of an inconsistent motor, he is almost a value pick at this point.”

McShay is taking the approach that Coples is too good to pass at #9. Indeed, McShay has consistently kept the UNC lineman in high regard despite a disappointing senior season. I would argue that the Panthers’ greatest need comes at defensive tackle rather than the edge rush. Considering they’re also likely to use more 3-4 looks and maybe even more towards a permanent switch, I suspect they’ll be looking at scheme-flexible players too. Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox flashed enough athletic potential at the combine to warrant consideration here and should either be taken at #9, it makes it very likely that one of Coples or Courtney Upshaw will be there at #12.

Even so, let’s contemplate the unthinkable situation where the Seahawks are out of reach for the top defensive ends. What do they do? McShay suggests Luke Kuechly would be the choice – something I would tend to disagree with as noted in this article last week. In this situation I think the Seahawks would face a dilemma. Is there an opportunity to move down the board? It could be a case of damage limitations – miss out on the top players on the team’s board, but make a calculated move to still secure prospects in the three positions the team craves (for example: DE, LB and RB). It could be a case of targeting a position that allows the Seahawks to move down considerably yet still acquire a collection of players such as Zach Brown, Vinny Curry and Doug Martin.

Of course, you need a willing trade partner to make that kind of move. If no such deal is forthcoming, what then? Zach Brown is considered draftable by many teams in the top half of round one, even though he’s received a lot of negative publicity recently. The likes of Andre Branch, Whitney Mercilus and Nick Perry could also emerge as candidates – although none carry the same versatility as the trio of Upshaw, Ingram and Coples, which could be more of an issue than some think. The reason I’ve not concentrated on other pass rushers is mainly down to the one-dimensional aspect of the alternatives. The Seahawks want a rusher who can be used in different positions to create mis-matches. Upshaw, Ingram and Coples are all flexible – they’ve all moved inside, played the edge and Ingram and Upshaw have taken on some minor coverage responsibilities at times. Branch, Mercilus and Perry are all pure edge rushers. Vinny Curry in round two has the kind of power – if not the size – to be used in different ways and may be more appealing for that reason.

I would argue it’s unlikely the Seahawks would make further additions to their offensive line and I don’t expect the team to draft a quarterback at #12 this year, even if Tannehill remains available.

The wildcard in this new scenario could be Dontari Poe. I think Fletcher Cox is more suited to the five-technique and he hasn’t got the lower body power to hold up in Seattle’s larger front, but Poe would fit like a glove. In fact, could he even shed +20lbs and become a solid three technique? He’s already running a sub-5.00 at 345lbs and benching more than anyone else at the combine. Could he shift some body fat without impacting his strength to become even more of a mobile freak of nature? It’s worth considering – even if it weakens his ability to have an immediate impact as a rookie.

It’s mere speculation at this point and as mentioned earlier – I think there’s still a very strong possibility we’ll never have to cross this particular bridge and one of Upshaw, Ingram or Coples will be there at #12. Yet the situation is maybe a little more cloudy than it was prior to the trade involving Washington and St. Louis.

Projected big board for the Seahawks

The big four

Courtney Upshaw
Reads better in space than Melvin Ingram, the perfect compliment of good run defense and pass rushing ability.

Trent Richardson
Insurance against Marshawn Lynch wearing down, but also a further dynamic addition to Seattle’s run-centric offense.

Melvin Ingram
He will have his supporters in the war room and has the versatility to appear in different looks.

Quinton Coples
This coaching staff won’t be too concerned about his motivation, but legitimate concerns about his run defense exist.

Second tier possibilities?

Zach Brown, Dontari Poe, Andre Branch, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry, Doug Martin, Vinny Curry, Mychal Kendricks